A no-confidence motion can be a double-edged sword. The TDP and YSR Congress on Friday, independently, gave a notice in the Lok Sabha for moving a motion of no confidence against the Narendra Modi government. Without the requisite numbers to topple the government, the move is aimed at sending a message to their respective constituents in Andhra Pradesh about their seriousness in raising the state-specific issues.
The other opposition parties, like Congress and the Left, decided to support the no-confidence motion. The limited purpose of this move is to force a discussion in the House on the 'failures' of the Union government. But herein also lies a catch. As the BJP is expected to comfortably win the motion with help of its allies, the saffron party will claim moral victory to send a message to the country that it not only has the numbers but is also unassailable against any attack.
The treasury benches even have the talent of employing better rhetorical flourishes, with Modi himself leading the pack better than anyone in the opposition. One of the main handicaps of the opposition benches in the current Lok Sabha is the absence of powerful speakers in contrast with the previous terms where leaders could hold the attention of the nation with their eloquence, even if they lacked numbers.
After winning the Tripura elections and forming governments in two more states, BJP chief Amit Shah had said electoral successes were a barometer of people’s faith in the Modi government’s governance. He had then evaded a reply to a question on the BJP doing poorly in the byelections. The BJP will sound a triumphalist note after a similar victory in the no-confidence motion.
The BJP had already prepared to counter the move. “It's the best opportunity for us. Now we will grow in Andhra Pradesh and form our own government in the state,” BJP spokesperson G.V.L. Narsimha Rao said.
As of now, the ball is in the court of Speaker Sumitra Mahajan on whether she admits the motion or not. After YSR Congress and TDP moved it on Friday, the speaker said as the House was not in order, it cannot be accepted.
The NDA alliance has suffered its first jolt as the TDP officially severed its ties with the BJP. “Telugu Desam Party has decided to officially exit the National Democratic Alliance due to failure in fulfilling the promises made in the State Reorganisation Act. This decision was taken unanimously,” Andhra CM Chandrababu Naidu said.
Another danger for the NDA government in the event of a no-confidence motion is the response of the Shiv Sena and other allies. They too can embarrass the government to make a point. It would require a lot of deft handling and mollycoddling from the BJP to keep them in good humour.
In terms of numbers, the BJP has 274 MPs in the Lok Sabha whose present strength is 538. Five seats are vacant. The halfway mark based on current numbers comes to 269.
The Congress has 48 MPs in the Lok Sabha, the AIADMK has 37, the TDP has 16 and the YSR Congress and the CPI(M) have nine MPs each.