As parts of Central Africa continue to battle fresh Ebola outbreaks, while concerns around hantavirus, mpox and avian influenza also remains active, a new international report has delivered a stark warning: the world may actually be becoming more vulnerable to future pandemics despite the painful lessons of COVID-19.
Amidst these repeated outbreaks and growing fears around emerging infectious diseases, a new report by the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB), an independent body backed by the World Health Organisation and the World Bank, has warned that global preparedness is failing to keep pace with rising pandemic risks.
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The report, titled A World on the Edge: Priorities for a Pandemic-Resilient Future, says infectious disease outbreaks are not only becoming more frequent but also more damaging, causing widening health, economic, political and social disruptions while leaving countries with weaker recovery capacities.
The Board’s warning comes nearly six years after the COVID-19 pandemic exposed major cracks in global health systems, supply chains, vaccine equity, and political cooperation. According to the report, despite significant scientific progress and greater awareness after COVID-19, “the trajectory of pandemic risk is moving in the wrong direction.”
Let’s dive into why the report has warned that “a decade on, the world is not safer from health emergencies.”
Why does the report say global preparedness is failing?
According to the GPMB report, pandemic preparedness efforts across the world are no longer keeping pace with rapidly evolving global risks. The report noted that within months of GPMB’s first warning years ago that the world was not prepared for a fast-moving pandemic, COVID-19 emerged and became the deadliest respiratory pandemic since 1918.
Now, despite “considerably more knowledge, tools and resources,” the report says preparedness systems remain fragile and uneven.
“Climate change and armed conflict are exacerbating risk; geopolitical fragmentation, the erosion of civic space, and commercial self-interest are undercutting collective action,” the report stated.
The report highlighted that advanced AI tools and digital technologies have enormous potential to transform pandemic prevention, preparedness and response (PPR), especially in surveillance, outbreak detection and risk monitoring. However, it warned that without safeguards and effective governance, these same technologies could worsen health inequities and deepen access gaps that were already visible during COVID-19.
The Board also found that outbreaks are becoming more frequent and more severe. In 2024, the WHO reportedly detected almost twice as many health emergency events compared to 2015. While faster detection systems may have prevented some outbreaks from escalating into large epidemics, those that do spread are becoming “high-impact events.”
The report explained that although the overall burden of infectious diseases had declined globally over the years, the scale and severity of large health emergencies are now increasing due to factors such as climate change, global travel, urbanisation, agricultural practices and the rise of zoonotic diseases.
“PPR is not keeping pace with changing risks,” the report warned. “Without a step change in preparedness capacities to explicitly address pandemic drivers, improve declining commitment to equity and collective action, and rebuild trust, the world risks entering a cycle of accelerating health crises.”
The Board further warned that declining investments in global health may worsen future risks. According to the report, after the surge in financing during COVID-19, development assistance for health has now dropped back to levels last seen in 2009. At the same time, shifting geopolitical priorities are threatening long-term preparedness investments.
The report added that the world is increasingly entering a “VUCA” environment - one shaped by volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity - making pandemic preparedness harder than ever.
How have pandemics changed societies, economies and politics?
One of the central findings of the report is that health emergencies are no longer just medical crises; they are reshaping economies, governance systems and societies for years after outbreaks end.
The Board analysed six Public Health Emergencies of International Concern (PHEICs) declared over the past decade - the 2014–2016 West African Ebola epidemic, the 2016 Zika outbreak, the Ebola outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the recent mpox outbreaks between 2022 and 2025.
According to the report, these emergencies showed that even outbreaks beginning with only a handful of cases can rapidly escalate when countries lack resilient systems, timely coordination and public trust.
The report stated that health systems continue to suffer major long-term consequences after pandemics. Across outbreaks such as Ebola and COVID-19, between one-third and one-half of survivors reportedly experienced mental health impacts. During the West African Ebola epidemic and COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions in healthcare systems caused severe indirect effects, including drops in access to antenatal care and missed immunisations.
Economically, the report found that outbreaks relying heavily on lockdowns and public health restrictions caused enormous structural damage. During the West African Ebola epidemic and COVID-19 pandemic, GDP declined by 5.1% and 2.9%, respectively, while public debt burdens and inflation increased sharply.
The report also pointed out that the first year of COVID-19 saw foreign direct investment collapse by 51%, marking the steepest decline ever recorded.
“Responses that relied more on PHSM, such as the West African Ebola epidemic and the COVID-19 pandemic, saw worse economic outcomes,” the report stated, adding that many governments were forced into highly disruptive restrictions because of delayed surveillance, weak testing systems and insufficient contact tracing capacities.
Social consequences were equally severe. The report found that women, children, informal workers and marginalised communities consistently bore the heaviest burden during health emergencies. Educational losses became one of the defining impacts of outbreaks. According to the analysis, nearly 80% of children globally were out of school during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report also noted that misinformation and weakening information ecosystems amplified fear, mistrust and social divisions.
Politically, the report warned that health emergencies increasingly erode democratic norms and public trust. During Ebola outbreaks and COVID-19, several countries postponed elections, expanded emergency powers and implemented movement restrictions.
“The COVID-19 pandemic also brought a global reduction in media freedoms,” the report stated.
It added that trust in governments, scientific institutions and multilateral organisations has still not fully recovered after COVID-19, making future public health responses potentially more difficult.
Is the world moving backwards on vaccine equity and recovery?
One of the strongest concerns raised by the report is that the world may actually be regressing when it comes to equitable access to vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics.
Despite global outrage over vaccine inequity during COVID-19, the report found that access during the recent mpox outbreaks was even slower for low-income countries. According to the analysis, mpox vaccines took nearly 24–27 months to reach affected low-income nations, compared with 17 months for COVID-19 vaccines.
The report blamed this on persistent structural failures in global health systems, including limited manufacturing capacity, concentration of vaccine production in high-income countries, export restrictions, advance purchase agreements and delayed financing mechanisms.
It also warned of growing “equity fatigue.”
“This shift reflects a convergence of political fatigue, rising domestic pressures, and the perception that delivering equity is too complex, resource-intensive, or politically costly,” the report said.
According to the Board, countries are increasingly turning inward instead of strengthening international cooperation, weakening momentum behind reforms focused on fairness and equitable access.
The report added that recovery after pandemics is also becoming slower and more unequal. Economically weaker countries continue to struggle for years after outbreaks, widening global inequalities further.
For instance, the report estimated that COVID-19 may result in more than US$ 50 trillion in lost economic output between 2020 and 2030. Inflation levels and government debt also remain elevated years after the pandemic.
The social scars of pandemics have also remained deep and long-lasting. According to the report, more than 10.5 million children lost a caregiver during COVID-19, while Ebola outbreaks left thousands orphaned. Educational disruption, poverty and informal employment have continued to rise even after emergencies ended.
Politically, the report warned that democratic erosion caused during health emergencies often outlasts the crisis itself. “By 2024, key indicators of democracy, civil liberties, polarisation, and trust had still not returned to pre-pandemic levels,” the report stated.
The Board warned that countries entering future pandemics with weakened trust, polarisation and democratic strain may struggle even more to coordinate effective responses.
What does the report suggest countries must do now?
The GPMB report argues that the world still has an opportunity to change course, but only if political leaders act urgently and collectively.
“The world does not lack solutions,” said GPMB Co-Chair Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović. “But without trust and equity, those solutions will not reach the people who need them most.”
The report identifies three major priorities for governments and global institutions.
First, it calls for a permanent and independent global monitoring mechanism for pandemic risks that would use advanced and ethical AI systems while remaining directly accountable to international institutions such as the World Health Assembly and the United Nations.
Second, the report strongly pushes for equitable access to vaccines, diagnostics and therapeutics through the finalisation and implementation of the WHO Pandemic Agreement. It also stresses the need for stronger regional manufacturing capacities, technology transfer, workforce development and targeted investments.
Third, the Board calls for sustainable financing systems for pandemic preparedness and “Day Zero” emergency response mechanisms so that countries can react immediately when outbreaks emerge.
GPMB Co-Chair Joy Phumaphi warned that the crisis is now as much political as it is scientific.
“If trust and cooperation continue to fracture, every country will be more exposed when the next pandemic strikes. Preparedness is not only a technical challenge - it is a test of political leadership,” she said.
The report concluded by warning that the next pandemic could strike a world that is “more divided, more indebted and less able to protect its people” than it was a decade ago. It added that leadership will now be tested as governments move toward finalising the WHO Pandemic Agreement and future United Nations commitments on pandemic preparedness.
‘Viruses do not recognise borders’
Dr Sunil Kumar K said the world today is medically stronger and more aware of infectious diseases than it was before COVID-19. According to him, the pandemic significantly improved global respiratory care systems, with hospitals now having “well-equipped intensive care units, enough oxygen supply, ventilators, and better control of infections accompanied by rapid diagnostic tests.” He added that healthcare workers are also better trained in identifying and managing severe respiratory infections.
At the same time, Dr Sunil cautioned that the concerns raised in the GPMB report remain valid. He noted that factors such as climate change, overcrowded cities, rapid international travel, and weak public health systems are making outbreaks “more dangerous and more frequent.” He explained that respiratory viruses can now spread across borders “within a couple of days,” while misinformation continues to fuel distrust around vaccines and public health advice. According to him, many low- and middle-income countries still struggle with “basic healthcare facilities and emergency funds,” meaning that despite medical advancements, “the entire world isn’t quite ready yet for another major pandemic.”
Speaking about vaccine equity, Dr Sunil said the delayed rollout of mpox vaccines in low-income countries shows that the inequalities exposed during COVID-19 remain unresolved. He described the 24–27 month delay highlighted in the GPMB report as “really worrying in situations of rapidly spreading epidemics.” While vaccine development has become faster scientifically, he stressed that fair distribution remains a major challenge because wealthier nations continue to benefit from “stronger purchasing power, manufacturing control, and political influence.”
He further pointed out that many poorer nations still depend heavily on global agencies for vaccine access and funding, leading to dangerous delays during outbreaks. “Viruses do not recognise borders,” Dr Sunil said, adding that unequal protection anywhere in the world becomes “a risk to the entire world.” According to him, although global health systems learned important lessons from COVID-19, “genuine vaccine equity has not yet been realised in practice.”
Dr Sunil also warned that misinformation, mistrust, and pandemic fatigue could become some of the biggest barriers during future global health emergencies. Reflecting on COVID-19, he noted that many people “delayed testing, avoided hospitals, refused vaccines, or simply ignored safety measures” because of misinformation spreading through social media and political debates.
Referring to the GPMB report’s concerns around declining public trust, he said this poses a serious risk during outbreaks where “early action and public cooperation are essential to controlling the spread.” He added that pandemic fatigue has also reduced people’s willingness to follow precautions such as masking, isolation, and vaccination. “We, as medical professionals, not only rely on medications and technology but also on the public’s trust and willingness to cooperate,” he said, warning that without “clear communication and trusted leadership,” even strong healthcare systems may struggle to manage future outbreaks effectively.
This story is done in collaboration with First Check, which is the health journalism vertical of DataLEADS