Even as the authorities in Kerala seek to put a lid on the burgeoning number of COVID-19 cases, an attempt to identify the suspected mutant strain of the causative coronavirus is on. However, a study by the Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology (IGIB), New Delhi, has found that the presence of the UK variant of the coronavirus is less in samples collected from Kasaragod, Idukki, Palakkad and Kannur districts.
The institute found the N440K variant spreading in Kerala and all other southern states, according to Dr Arun Scaria, principal scientist. The N440K variant has immune-escape capabilities, meaning it can breach the immune system, despite the presence of antibodies in the human body. (Immune evasion is a strategy used by pathogenic organisms and tumours to evade a host's immune response to maximize their probability of being transmitted.)
IGIB has been sequencing and analyzing the samples collected from Kerala since the second week of March, and its result would be available in a week. The institute blamed the reluctance in strictly following COVID-19 appropriate behaviour for the spurt in the number of positive cases. The result of restrictions, clamped recently, would be visible after 10 days.
Kerala, on Thursday, reported 26,995 positive cases after 1,35,177 samples were tested. The test positivity rate was 19.97 per cent.
Other significant IGIB findings
After studying the samples from various Indian states and abroad, the IGIB has arrived at the following conclusions:
The immunity to the disease decreases in six to eight months. The severe second wave in Delhi and other places, where the population had attained herd immunity, point to this fact.
A new wave is possible after eight months. People will be immune to all variants if every eighth month witnesses a
fresh wave, like in the case of dengue. However, it will take a few years to get such an immunity.
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The high mortality rate is due to the lack of healthcare facilities. The mortality rate in Delhi is 1.5 per cent, compared to Kerala’s 0.5 per cent.
In Delhi, the patient-to hospital bed ratio is 1,500:10 lakh people, while in Kerala, it is 5,000:10 lakh. Kerala has not yet utilised even 50 per cent of its hospital facilities.
Only under 10 per cent of the total population in Kerala are immune to coronavirus. Though vaccination won’t significantly prevent the spread of the virus, it reduces the mortality rate. The US has reported a considerable decrease in mortality rate of the inoculated elderly there.
Triple mutant variant in Bengal
The double mutant variant of the coronavirus, B.1.617, has led to the current crisis in 10 states, including Maharashtra, Delhi, and West Bengal. The double mutant variant reached countries such as the UK, the US and Australia from India, where it originated. In Bengal, the triple mutant variant, B.1.618, has been observed since October. Of the total cases in Bengal, 15-20 per cent of the cases are due to this variant.
(This column was first published in onmanorama)