On Baisakhi, Punjab is usually invoked as a symbol of harvest, resilience and martial pride. It should also be seen for what it is in hard strategic terms: one of India’s most exposed and consequential frontiers. That is not because Punjab is weaker than Jammu & Kashmir, but because it is more densely inhabited, more economically stressed at the local level and increasingly vulnerable to the new dynamics of asymmetric warfare.
Operation Sindoor in May 2025 dramatically raised the cost of overt terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir for Pakistan. India’s punitive strikes on terror infrastructure imposed direct military, political and reputational costs, making spectacular attacks in the Valley far riskier. Islamabad absorbed the punishment but emerged diplomatically agile. It gained fresh geopolitical relevance — acting as a diplomatic intermediary in the Iran crisis, deepening ties with the Trump administration through energy and critical minerals deals and balancing this with CPEC Phase 2 and Saudi defence pacts.
A Pakistan that is economically stressed yet internationally re-validated does not necessarily become more restrained. Instead, it can become more self-confident and adventurous in the grey zone, where deniable hybrid operations carry lower escalation risks than direct support for high-profile terror in a now-costlier J&K theatre.
Punjab is an especially tempting low-cost target for such pressure. It is a crowded borderland with villages, farms, roads, canals and a large youth population living amid unemployment, debt and addiction stress. Across the border, Pakistan’s economy remains fragile. When distress exists on both sides, smuggling networks find recruits, handlers find couriers and hostile agencies find social cracks to exploit.
Unlike J&K, where the security grid is historically tight and threat perception consistently high, Punjab’s normalcy can itself become a vulnerability. A state cannot remain economically dynamic if it must behave like a permanent fortress. But permeability to narcotics, guns, covert influence, drone drops and gangs will negatively impact the investment sentiment too. The data is sobering. Under the ‘Yudh Nashe Virudh’ campaign since March 2025, Punjab registered over 26,000–31,000 NDPS cases, with nearly 39,000–45,000 accused, 1,714–2,000+ kg heroin seized (state figures approaching or exceeding 2,000 kg by early 2026), over 4.26–49 lakh intoxicant pills/capsules, and significant drug money recovered. The state, comprising just 2.3 per cent of India’s population, has long accounted for a disproportionate share of national heroin seizures. These are not mere law-and-order figures, but they signal deep social corrosion and national-security stress.
The border picture is even more alarming. In 2025, BSF Punjab Frontier seized 272 drones, over 367 kg heroin, 19 kg methamphetamine/ICE, more than 10 kg RDX/IED material, 12 hand grenades and around 200 weapons — a five-fold jump in arms recoveries. And this may just be the tip of the iceberg – for every drone caught, many more must be getting through.
While Punjab Police dismantled hundreds of gangster modules in 2025, arresting nearly 1,000 criminals and seizing hundreds of weapons and vehicles. Over 400 gangs/modules remain active, with dozens of foreign-based handlers (many Pakistan-linked) orchestrating extortion rackets, targeted killings and narco-funding. Operations like ‘Gangsteran Te Vaar’ and ‘Prahaar-2’ have led to tens of thousands of raids and thousands of arrests, revealing a gangster-smuggler-terror facilitator nexus that fuses organised crime with hybrid threats.
Strategically, Punjab dwarfs J&K in consequence. It is the rear logistics artery for India’s northern military posture: the main surface corridor to Jammu & Kashmir runs through Punjab. Major force concentrations of the Indian Army and Indian Air Force, along with critical logistics hubs, lie here. Punjab is also central to northern water management. Projects such as the near-complete Shahpur Kandi Dam on the Ravi are designed to harness waters for irrigation in Punjab, J&K, Haryana and Rajasthan rather than let surplus flow unused into Pakistan — a direct strategic lever post-Indus Waters Treaty tensions. Destabilising Punjab will adversely impact the security of J&K and India’s wider military reinforcement, economic and water-security architecture. The BSF, with expanded jurisdiction up to 50 km inland, is responding aggressively with anti-drone systems, upgraded surveillance and joint operations. Yet the honest fact is that it cannot handle this activity, which is now happening on an industrial scale, alone. Success depends on seamless intelligence-sharing, local police action, financial warfare against networks and village-level vigilance.
In light of surging threats, the February 2026 launch of PRAHAAR — India’s first comprehensive national counter-terrorism policy — is a welcome doctrinal step. However, as a recent initiative barely two months old, it remains largely a high-level framework. Drawbacks include federal friction over State List subjects, technological and capacity asymmetries in local policing and the lack of granular mechanisms for real-time financial intelligence. Punjab still lacks the permanent, layered joint architecture that J&K enjoys.
Given its higher strategic stakes, ad-hoc coordination risks lagging behind fast-evolving asymmetric tactics, a dedicated Punjab-specific Counter-Hybrid Threat Command — integrating BSF, Army, state police, NCB and intelligence — is urgently needed. That is the core lesson of asymmetric warfare in 2026. An adversary does not need battalions crossing the border. It needs drones, narcotics, cheap pistols, encrypted handlers, local gang proxies, social media amplification and a few vulnerable young men. Punjab, therefore, cannot be treated as a rear area while J&K is treated as the front. Punjab is the front too.
Baisakhi celebrates renewal. India should use it to renew its strategic attention to Punjab before the costs of neglect become far higher than the costs of vigilance. The frontier of the future may not be where bunkers are strongest, but where society is open, productive and therefore vulnerable. The fields are ripe for harvest. Let the next Baisakhi dawn in a Punjab secured by vigilance, prosperity and unyielding resolve.
(The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.)