In the evolving geopolitical landscape of 2026, India finds itself at a critical inflection-point with regard to its strategic outlook and its future relations with the major global powers, namely the US, China, Russia and the European Union. The US has largely been a friend based on shared democratic values, while Russia is a steady and reliable partner across multiple dimensions. On the other hand, for long, India has shared a complex relationship with China — marked by strategic rivalry, economic engagement, territorial aggressiveness by China on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and Beijing’s ambition to expand its footprint among India's neighbours in South Asia and the rest of Asia.
The recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela that saw the capture of President Nicolás Maduro on January 3rd, 2026, has reverberated well beyond Latin America, challenging China’s presence in the region and the future of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - the continuing effort by China to control global supply chains. Undoubtedly, this development offers India new openings to diversify its diplomatic and economic partnerships. New Delhi must now navigate an increasingly volatile world order with strategic autonomy, nuance and new purpose.
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For India, the strategic game ahead is not merely about balancing against China; it is about adapting to a multipolar era, deepening partnerships where interests align, and sharpening its diplomatic toolkit to safeguard both security and development goals. This article explores how India can play that game smartly in light of recent global shifts.
Turning China’s geopolitical pressures into strategic leverage
China’s relationship with India in recent years can be described as a combination of economic entanglement and strategic rivalry. While bilateral trade has grown — close to $136 billion recently — enduring mistrust, particularly after the 2020 intrusions across the LAC and the Galwan clash thereafter, continues to shape policy choices.
Crucially, in 2017, India chose not to join China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) due to sovereignty concerns, especially over projects in Gilgit-Baltistan — territory India claims as part of Jammu & Kashmir. This decision, though costly economically, has allowed India to avoid strategic overdependence on Beijing while preserving diplomatic flexibility.
China’s broader infrastructure and economic expansion — through ports, railways, energy linkages, and financing worldwide — has often been interpreted in India as attempts at strategic encirclement, whether through deepening economic and military ties with Pakistan, increasing infrastructure in South Asia and Africa, or expanding influence across Latin America and the Caribbean.
The recent blow to China’s position in Venezuela — where the U.S. intervention has jeopardized Beijing’s oil interests and forced it to reassess its regional strategy — provides India with a unique moment. Although analysts caution that China’s Latin American ambitions won’t disappear, the cost of maintaining such engagements for Beijing — both financially and politically — has clearly increased in the eyes of partners across the Global South.
For India, this means more than a transient advantage: it creates room to deepen ties with countries seeking alternatives to Chinese influence — particularly in resource-rich regions and markets undergoing geopolitical recalibration.
Energy diplomacy: Diversification beyond West Asia and Russia
Energy security has long been central to India’s foreign policy. With crude imports accounting for a significant share of its energy basket, India has historically been dependent on producers in West Asia. Yet events like the Venezuela crisis, and the UAE’s and Saudi Arabia’s ties with global powers, highlight the vulnerability of relying heavily on one region.
This context amplifies the importance of India’s energy cooperation with the Caribbean, especially Guyana — a relatively new but strategically pivotal partner with vast offshore oil reserves. A recent memorandum of understanding (MoU) between India and Guyana aims to expand cooperation in hydrocarbons, from trade to exploration and refining partnerships.
Guyana’s emergence as a major oil producer presents India with three core advantages:
• Diversification of energy sources: Reducing dependence on traditional partners in West Asia or Russia, thereby insulating India from supply shocks and geopolitical pressure.
• Strategic presence in the Americas: Building economic ties in a region where China has historically held significant influence conveys India’s rising global footprint.
• South–South cooperation narrative: Engaging as a partner — not a hegemon — enhances India’s soft power among developing nations.
As global oil markets realign post-Venezuela, India’s ability to secure long-term, stable oil supplies from alternative partners in the Caribbean could reduce the leverage China exerts through its own oil diplomacy.
Reinforcing the Quad and multi-vector partnerships
While India has often resisted formal alignment in Cold War-style blocs, it has actively participated in multi-lateral platforms such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) alongside the U.S., Japan, and Australia. This grouping, grounded in shared concerns over a rising China, provides India with diplomatic and strategic cover — not as a subordinate, but as an essential voice shaping an Indo-Pacific vision that favours stability, rule of law, and free navigation.
In addition to the Quad, India is engaging in other frameworks such as I2U2, IPEF (Indo-Pacific Economic Framework), and bilateral ties with Southeast Asian nations — implementing its “Act East” and “Neighbourhood First” policies. These endeavours help India weave stronger regional cooperation networks, counterbalancing Chinese influence without direct confrontation.
India should continue to:
• Expand joint military exercises and interoperability with like-minded countries.
• Deepen technology and supply-chain partnerships in critical sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals.
• Advance climate and sustainable development cooperation that intersects with strategic interests.
By maintaining a multi-vector foreign policy, India avoids being pigeonholed into a single geopolitical bloc while maximizing its strategic leverage.
Balancing autonomy with strategic alignment
One of India’s enduring foreign policy tenets has been its insistence on strategic autonomy — a refusal to become a proxy for any great power, even as it nurtures partnerships that align with its interests. This approach has allowed New Delhi to balance relations with the U.S., Russia, and increasingly with partners in Europe, Africa, and Latin America.
The reaction to the Venezuela intervention illustrates India’s careful diplomacy: New Delhi has adopted a measured stance, calling for peace and dialogue rather than taking sides overtly in a dispute that pits Washington against Beijing and Moscow. This reflects an understanding that overt alignment with one power bloc could constrain India’s diplomatic flexibility and invite strategic vulnerabilities.
Smart strategy for India means:
• Avoiding entanglement in extra-regional great-power conflicts that do not directly impact national interests.
• Crafting issue-based partnerships — varying from defence technology with the U.S. to energy deals with Latin American states.
• Pursuing space for strategic hedging in global institutions where collective norms can shape a multipolar order that favours medium powers like India.
Rethinking economic statecraft
Geopolitics today is as much about economics as it is about military might. India’s refusal to join the BRI was a strategic decision rooted in sovereignty concerns, but it has also limited New Delhi’s access to infrastructure financing that rival China has long used to build influence.
However, India can pursue alternative economic statecraft:
• Investing in infrastructure corridors that connect South Asia with Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Europe.
• Strengthening regional economic integration, especially through platforms like BIMSTEC and SAARC (where possible).
• Engaging with supply-chain realignment initiatives that reduce overdependence on any single economic partner.
By coupling economic initiatives with strategic foresight, India can mitigate the risk of isolation in regions where China’s economic heft has traditionally dominated.
Narrative leadership and soft power
Finally, India must not underestimate the role of soft power — cultural ties, democratic legitimacy, and developmental partnerships — in shaping global perceptions. Its emphasis on democracy, pluralism, and economic opportunity differentiates it from China.
In an era where global opinion matters — from Africa to Latin America — India can:
• Promote people-to-people exchanges, educational cooperation, and cultural diplomacy.
• Expand development assistance that is transparent and demand-driven, especially in Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean.
• Champion global governance reforms that reflect the interests of the Global South.
This narrative leadership enhances India’s strategic choices, positioning it not as a counter-force but as a constructive partner.
India-EU relations: Poised for an upswing
In the midst of this global volatility and strategic churn, high level diplomacy between India and the EU signals renewed vigour. The EU’s New Strategic Agenda, unveiled in September 2025, targets prosperity, security technology and climate action across five pillars. Negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) have accelerated, with tariff reductions eyed to boost India’s textiles and pharmaceuticals alongside EU machinery exports. Defence ties are evolving with Europe’s post-Ukraine Euro 800 billion push aligning with India’s $ 2.76 billion export surge, fostering joint ventures in maritime security and cyber defence.
An early 2026 summit could seal the FTA, launch a Security and Defence partnership and unveil a post-2025 roadmap. Enhanced connectivity via IMEC and green tech FDI promise mutual gains, countering China’s rise. Bold leadership must transcend frictions over Russia, trade hurdles and allegations of democratic backsliding for a balanced alliance reshaping Indo-Pacific dynamics.
Conclusion: Strategic patience with purpose
India stands at a defining moment. The possible disruption of China’s Latin American footprint through a major geopolitical event in the form of the US operation in Venezuela, combined with New Delhi’s expanding energy partnerships and deeper global engagements, has presented a rare opportunity. India’s challenge is not simply to counter China’s global and regional influence — but to reshape the strategic landscape in a way that aligns with its security, economic, and normative aspirations.
By pursuing strategic autonomy, diversified partnerships, economic resilience, and global narrative leadership, India can transform geopolitical disruptions into a durable advantage. In a world where the great power competition is intensifying, India’s strategic smartness will lie in navigating complexity with principles, patience, and pragmatism.
(The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK)
(The writer was Vice Chief of the Indian Army. He has authored the book ‘A National Security Strategy for India – the Way Forward’)