Despite the modernisation efforts and an array of stealth aircraft, warships, submarines, and aircraft carriers that lags behind only that of the US military and a defence budget second only to the US, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is not a war-ready force, a recent report by a US think tank claimed.
According to the report ‘The Chinese Military’s Doubtful Combat Readiness,’ by Timothy R. Heath published by RAND Corporation, while PLA fields "a large and impressive suite of weapons and equipment", China's "ability to translate that materiel power into combat power remains far from proven."
While China's doctrine of joint warfare has been clearly articulated and it has shown its capabilities in nonwar missions, the PLA has "continued to shy away from any combat operations."
The report pointed out that China's own media is "replete with withering criticism of the military's inability to execute integrated joint operations and its lack of combat readiness."
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Heath noted that almost all militaries train and hold exercises, but only a few militaries can fight like the US, as evinced by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. "For example, Russian troops routinely held large-scale exercises to practice combat operations prior to their poor performance on the battlefield in Ukraine."
Heath argued that the Chinese military is fundamentally focused on upholding Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule rather than preparing for war, and observed that from its earliest years, the PLA’s principal function has been defined by its mission to support the CCP’s pursuit of political power. According to him, even the modernisation efforts are geared towards this end.
China’s rapid modernisation gains are partly because of the country’s desire to elevate the quality of the military from a very low base in the 1970s, he observed.
Besides, there is also the issue of corruption. The report points out that despite a widely publicised anticorruption campaign, graft appears well entrenched in the military.
“Chinese leaders have made no speeches that glorify war, advocate for war, or otherwise characterize war as inevitable or desirable. In addition, there is no evidence that the country is mobilizing for war or otherwise putting itself on a war footing. Chinese leaders have not even permitted popular media to dwell on the possibility of major war as a possible means of building awareness and support for such a war,” the report notes.
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According to him, the PLA’s system of political controls limits how much the military can improve its combat effectiveness. "Anecdotal reports in Chinese media admit that operational competence remains a serious deficiency among political commissars."
"The prospect of a large-scale, high-intensity US-China war is improbable at this point. If US-China tensions escalate to hostilities, China will face strong incentives to favor indirect methods of fighting over large-scale conventional war," the report states.
In short, there is no question that the PLA has made impressive modernisation gains, according to the report. “The PLA values operational proficiency and has improved its combat effectiveness, albeit starting from a very low point. But the PLA’s focus on upholding CCP rule constrains how much it can truly transform itself into a warfighting machine.”