The cat is out of the bag. Tariffs are not economic tools; they are political weapons of mass destruction to bludgeon countries around the world. This is President Donald Trump’s way of using brute force to assert American supremacy. For months now, world leaders swallowed the excuse that the US had the right to raise tariffs to offset its trade deficit. But the cat snarled out of the bag when Trump slammed 50 per cent tariffs on Brazil, even though the US enjoys a $7.4 billion trade surplus with South America’s biggest economy. He revealed his real motive when he said on “Truth Social” that he was imposing tariffs on Brazil for the “witch-hunt” trial against his Brazilian Buddy—Jair Bolsonaro, the rightwing, populist former president, nicknamed “Trump of the Tropics”.
So how is this going down in the tropics? Not well. Our late prime minister Morarji Desai once told me, “Never underestimate the defiance of a small country against the coercion of a big country.” He was referring to the Indian subcontinent dynamics. Brazil is big, but much smaller than the US, economically and militarily. The Desai formula still works—coercion meets defiance in the tropics.
Left-leaning Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva rules out “ending” Bolsonaro’s trial, let alone “immediately”, as Trump demands. Bolsonaro is facing trial for the attempted coup against Lula after the 2022 elections—an enactment of Trump supporters’ 2021 attack in Washington. Bolsonaro and his sons fawned their way into Trump’s orbit by mimicking some of his policies and moves—including refusing to accept election defeat. As for US tariffs, Lula says Brazil can divert its goods to old and new trading partners.
Brazil is the latest country Trump threatens with tariffs for non-economic reasons. Others include Canada, China, Mexico and Colombia. Trump brandished tariffs for reasons ranging from Canada not stopping fentanyl from entering the US to Colombia refusing to take US immigrant deportees. Trump is also furious with Brazil because under its chairmanship, BRICS is examining alternatives to the dollar as trading currency. Decades ago, similar moves by Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi faced strong US opposition.
A cringeworthy spectacle is the parade of world leaders grovelling before Trump. It hasn’t worked. The Damocles sword of tariffs continue to dangle over countries. The world still grapples with uncertainty. Only the markets seem calm, not displaying the anticipated bipolar swings triggered by Trump’s on-off tariffs. Analysts conjecture, but sometimes there are simple explanations for even complex phenomena. Perhaps, the market is calm because it expects Trump to backtrack—which he has done consistently, earning the nickname—Taco—“Trump Always Chickens Out.” But the danger is that this calm is misleading. Market turmoil could be like what Ernest Hemingway wrote about bankruptcy—“It happens gradually, then suddenly.”
Trump’s use of tariffs as a weapon to promote far-right forces, as in Brazil, alarms Europe. In recent years, no political movement has surged as much as rightwing populism in Europe. Already, populists rule several countries. Now they are circling the citadels of power in the UK, France and Germany. Trump associate Steve Bannon and billionaire Elon Musk egregiously interfered in recent elections to promote the far-right in the UK and Germany. White supremacists used Musk’s “X” to incite violence in Britain.
The strangest twist and the biggest threat for liberal Europe is that far-right groups are now supported by both Russia and the US! The tariff sword has been unsheathed and it is multi-edged. The cats are on the prowl. And they have nine lives.
Pratap is an author and journalist.