EVEN BEFORE THE results of the Rajya Sabha elections were announced in Madhya Pradesh, social media saw a stream of congratulatory messages emanating from the BJP camp. Sure enough, the party won two of three seats on offer. Senior BJP leaders went to the state assembly with winning candidate Sumer Singh Solanki and a representative of the second winner, Jyotiraditya Scindia, who could not be present because he was in Covid-19 quarantine, to collect the winning certificate.
But they were not elated as expected. It seemed as though future tasks were hanging heavy on their hands. Political watchers say that despite regaining power and the high of the Rajya Sabha polls, the BJP’s real test is just about to start. And trouble is likely to emanate from within.
Sources say that when the much-publicised “Operation Kamal” was set in motion in the state in March, the BJP had two objectives—dislodge the 15-month-old Congress government and win two Rajya Sabha seats. Before that, the BJP was not in a statistical position to ensure two Rajya Sabha berths, despite having 107 MLAs in the 230-strong assembly. Both objectives were achieved when Scindia and the 22 MLAs who supported him quit the Congress for the BJP.
Now, with Scindia in the upper house—considered part of the deal—the BJP has to fulfil promises made to his supporters. And this is going to be tough, say political watchers. “Now with Rajya Sabha polls done, the BJP has to set about expanding the Shivraj Singh Chouhan cabinet to accommodate Scindia supporters who have been waiting for three months,” political analyst Manish Dixit says.
He says that the BJP, which has been stalling the much-awaited expansion, first on the grounds of the lockdown and then the Rajya Sabha polls, has no excuses left. “The patience of Scindia supporters is wearing thin and the bypolls to 24 vacant seats in the state are looming,” says Dixit. “In such circumstances, the BJP has to take a call on the cabinet expansion.”
Sources say that as part of the deal, at least 10 to 12 of the 22 defectors have to be made ministers, while the others are to be made chairpersons to boards and corporations. But, if the BJP accommodates all 22 Scindia supporters in such a manner, it will mean fewer opportunities for other BJP leaders. Several BJP leaders who were former ministers or have won multiple elections and are aspiring to become ministers, have already started to show their discomfort.
“Striking a balance between Scindia supporters who are awaiting their reward and original BJP leaders who want their years of loyalty to be acknowledged has certainly put the BJP in a catch-22 situation,” says Dixit. The developments during the Rajya Sabha polls—Guna MLA Gopilal Jatav is rumoured to have cross-voted and Raigaon MLA Jugalkishore Bagri cast an invalid vote—are also being looked upon as signals sent by the upset senior MLAs, though the party and the MLAs have denied any such motive. Dixit also points out that in the past fortnight many BJP leaders, including some prominent ones, have joined the Congress; several Congress members have joined the BJP, too.
Shams Ur Rehman Alavi, political commentator, says that the BJP cannot now wait until the bypolls to expand the cabinet or make political appointments as Scindia supporters will want a strong turf to play on when they seek re-election in the bypolls. On the other hand, upsetting senior leaders could make the situation difficult as the bypolls are the key to the BJP staying in power, says Alavi.
The BJP has to win at least nine of the 24 seats to get a majority. Then, with the support of the non-Congress opposition MLAs, it can comfortably complete the tenure. But the Rajya Sabha polls showed a problem in this aspect, too—the Congress managed to get two additional votes. If the rumour of the BJP MLA cross-voting is false, then the party got the votes of two non-Congress opposition MLAs. And the BJP, with 111 votes, got at least five votes of non-Congress opposition MLAs—as one of its votes was invalid.
Experts say that if the Congress managed to attract one or two non-Congress MLAs during the Rajya Sabha polls despite being down in the dumps, then the role of these seven non-Congress MLAs will become interesting and BJP could not count on them fully. The BJP might actually manage to win more than the required nine, given that it is the ruling party and that the Congress might not find the right candidates to pitch in the regions where Scindia has support, says Alavi.
K.K. Mishra, Congress spokesman in-charge of the Gwalior-Chambal region (where most of the bypolls are to be held), said that the BJP’s “annual examination” was due. “Like developing the Covid-19 vaccine, the task of expanding the cabinet will be a most challenging one,” he says. “Balancing the aspirations of its own cadre and the honour of those who have not yet been mentally [accepted] as their own will be a daunting task. Parties thrive on the loyalty and hard work of its ground workers, but if they are upset, it is a bad signal.”
BJP state president Vishnu Dutt Sharma told THE WEEK that the cabinet expansion would be done soon and the focus is on the impending bypolls. He said that there were no immediate plans of making appointments to government posts, but steps would be taken when required. As for the leaders or workers of the party being upset at the developments, he said that though some frontline workers might be discontent, there was “no major issue”. “Our party has a culture where all things are resolved through mutual discussions and party workers go by the party line,” says Sharma.