AAP's perceived decline in Punjab might help Congress

AAP’s perceived decline may help Congress in Punjab; BJP’s nationalism may not sell

PTI5_11_2019_000074B High hopes: Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and Congress state president Sunil Jakhar at a rally in Pathankot | PTI

IN MARCH 2017, Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh led his party to victory in the assembly elections. That victory gave the grand old party hope that it can revive its fortunes if it approached the polls aggressively. In December that year, the Congress gained 20 seats in Gujarat, and a year later, it won three states in the Hindi heartland.

Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP adopted a simple two-point strategy. Push the nationalism narrative and make the elections only about Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In Punjab, though, the elections are about Singh, too, a Patiala royal and former Army officer. Moreover, the anti-Pakistan sentiment is not as pronounced in Punjab as in the rest of the Hindi-speaking areas owing to its cultural ties with the western Punjab.

Singh is the main campaigner for his party and one of the main targets of attacks by the Akali Dal-BJP combine, which accuses his government of not fulfilling its promises. Congress state president and Gurdaspur candidate Sunil Jakhar told THE WEEK that Modi had run out of time, unlike Singh’s government. “Our tenure has just begun,” he said. Sukhbir Singh Badal, president of Shiromani Akali Dal and former deputy chief minister, countered: “Amarinder Singh is the worst chief minister since independence. The state is in paralysis.”

Three interesting contests are in three border seats of Punjab—Gurdaspur, Amritsar and Ferozepur. Gurdaspur shot into prominence after the BJP roped in actor Sunny Deol, a Jat Sikh, to take on Jakhar, a Hindu Jat and the sitting MP. Deol’s road shows are pulling in huge crowds, and Gurdaspur has fancied film stars in the past—Vinod Khanna won the seat four times. Deol has regaled the audience with his iconic dialogues like ‘Yeh dhai kilo ka haath’, and songs from his film Gadar: Ek Prem Katha (set during the partition) play at rallies. “On May 19, use a hammer to push the BJP button,” he told a largely appreciative crowd in Narot Jaimal Singh, near the Pakistan border. People bring hand pumps to rallies to greet him (in Gadar, Deol’s character uproots a hand pump to fight his opponents).

The actor has brought a team from Mumbai to assist him and has booked a village home-turned-resort to stay in Gurdaspur. “People ask what are the issues,” he said. “I am learning. I am not political nor do I read too much news. There is the drug problem and the issue of farmers.” The BJP leaders overseeing his campaign said that Deol was picking up the threads very fast. Deol said he would not be an absentee MP and would build a house in Gurdaspur.

His opponent Jakhar, whose family and the Deols had good relations, took a jibe at him saying that the actor might be looking for a new career as his films were not doing well. If Deol is relying on his star appeal and Jat Sikh roots, Jakhar is banking on the MLAs to steer the campaign. “The electorate should realise that the state government is ours and most of projects are undertaken with its help,” he said. “So, electing a Congress MP would be beneficial for them.”

Pathankot and Dinanagar, which witnessed terror attacks in the last three years, are both in Gurdaspur. These areas were also bombed during the 1965 and 1971 wars. Consequently, people are wary of the BJP’s chest thumping. The Sikhs are also worried that if this rhetoric continues, the Kartarpur Corridor—connecting two Sikh shrines on opposite sides of the border—will not be built.

In neighbouring Amritsar, Union minister Hardeep Puri of the BJP has the outsider tag. Interestingly, this is the first election for the 67-year-old former diplomat, thought to be close to Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley. Puri joined the BJP ahead of the 2014 elections and was drafted into the cabinet in 2017. It is an uphill task for Puri against sitting MP Gurjeet Singh Aujla (Congress). Puri, though, is leaving no stone unturned. His standard message at street meetings has been: “The people of Amritsar committed a mistake when they did not elect Arun Jaitley [against Amarinder Singh in 2014]. I am asking you not to commit the same mistake again. When I am elected I will take your problems directly to the cabinet.” He also came out with a vision document to transform Amritsar. His wife, the UN diplomat Lakshmi Puri, is also actively campaigning in the city known for its food, spirituality and fashion.

The nationalism debate is low key in Amritsar, too, compared with state specific issues. But Puri said that the local traders accepted the importance of national security though they were badly affected after cross border trade was shut. “Modi has changed the way foreign policy is practised by calling out Pakistan’s empty threats,” Puri said.

Also, bringing a candidate from outside the state could have its advantages for the BJP, given the ego clashes between local leaders, none of whom are high profile.

In Ferozepur, Badal himself has entered the fray to wrest the seat from sitting MP and former Akali Dal leader Sher Singh Ghubaya, who joined the Congress in March. “I believe in leading from the front,” said Badal. Countering the BJP’s nationalism narrative, the Congress has promised to start cross border trade from the Hussainiwala border in Ferozepur.

Other interesting contests in Punjab include the fight for Akali Dal’s pocket borough Bathinda, where Badal’s wife, Union minister Harsimrat Kaur, is defending her seat against Congress MLA Amrinder Singh Raja Warring. In the Union territory of Chandigarh Congress candidate Pawan Kumar Bansal, the former railway minister, seems to have a chance thanks to ‘anti-incumbency’ against the BJP’s Kirron Kher (critics said she shuttled between Chandigarh and Mumbai too often). Bansal had lost to Kher by more than 69,000 votes in 2014 after winning the seat three times.

The Congress hopes to improve its 2014 tally of three seats, but the Aam Aadmi Party, which won four, seems to have declined in Punjab as a result of mismanagement and dissensions within. Said Jakhar: “Through the AAP, people wanted a change from the police raj under the Akali government. Now, the Congress will benefit.”

The wheat crop has been harvested in the agrarian state and the farmers, relatively free before they start sowing rice in mid June, are flocking to the political rallies. The Congress is promising Nyay and the Akalis are affirming their commitment to the farmers. And, the farmers will be influential in deciding which party prospers in Punjab.

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