THE BJP-SHIV SENA alliance is over. Or so it seems. The BJP, under constant attack from its alliance partner, has decided to not play ball with the Sena for electoral gains. This was evident when, at a party event in Latur on January 6, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis said, “We will field candidates in all 48 seats [in the Lok Sabha elections]. Even the seats contested by our friends will have BJP candidates. So, you must ensure that we win 40 of the 48 seats.”
A senior BJP leader told THE WEEK that the Sena wanted to damage the BJP at any cost, and that it might not work earnestly even if the alliance endures. Apparently, there is a large section in the BJP that wants the alliance to end. “What is the guarantee that they will not help an independent or a Nationalist Congress Party candidate in the seats contested by the BJP?” asked the leader. “The Sena wants the [number of] BJP seats to reduce. They are also sending out feelers, saying the assembly elections should be held along with the Lok Sabha elections. They also want us to give them an assurance that the Sena will get the chief minister’s post, even if we have more seats. They want us to follow the Karnataka formula where the Congress, despite more numbers, has supported H.D. Kumaraswamy. There is a strong feeling in the party that we have waited long enough now. We do not see any change in the Sena’s attitude; they continue to hit out at us every day. So, why keep the doors open and face the stones? They are anyway out to sink us. I feel the chief minister was right in his position. Now, if they want an alliance, let them come forward with a concrete proposal.”
To assess the party’s strength in the event of a split, BJP president Amit Shah will travel to three regions of the state in January. While he was in Latur on January 6 to gauge the situation in the Marathwada region, he will go to Nagpur in mid-January to talk to party leaders in Vidarbha. Finally, at the end of the month, he will visit Sangli to evaluate the condition in western Maharashtra.
The BJP-Sena alliance had won 42 of 48 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. And though the BJP would want to make up for recent losses in the Hindi heartland, it would apparently not do so at the cost of self respect. The final straw, it seems, was the Sena’s support to the demand for a joint parliamentary committee on the Rafale deal. Its opposition to the Citizenship Amendment Bill also miffed the BJP. “If friends join us, we will help them win,” sad Shah in Latur. “If they do not, we will thrash them, too.”
Said a BJP insider in the know: “There is no way the Sena can get a Bihar-like deal. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar is the chief minister and we are the junior partners. The BJP accepted to contesting 17 seats, five fewer than the 22 seats it currently has, because seat sharing was decided on the basis of votes earned in the assembly elections. In the Lok Sabha and assembly elections of 2014, the BJP has emerged as the big brother within the alliance [in Maharashtra]. So, the Bihar pattern cannot be applied here.”
Senior BJP leader Babanrao Lonikar said there was a limit to the party’s patience. “Our top leaders, including Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari and the chief minister were positive about the alliance,” he said. “We took it in our stride when the Sena criticised us. But, it crossed the limit when [Sena president] Uddhav Thackeray repeated Rahul Gandhi’s ‘pehredar chor hai’ remark (a dig at Prime Minister Modi). It is better to go alone than have such friends.”
Another BJP legislator said that even if the BJP went ahead alone, it would easily win 22 to 23 seats. “Our estimates show that the Sena will be down to six or seven from its current 18. At least six Sena MPs have told the party leadership that they were not interested in contesting if there was no alliance. In any scenario, they will suffer far more than us. It is for them to decide now.”
The Sena, however, is in no mood to listen. “Amit Shah’s provocative statement has exposed him and his party,” the Sena said in a statement. “The Shiv Sena chief had expressed sentiments of the people of this country by saying ‘Har Hindu ki yehi pukar, pehle mandir phir sarkar’ (every Hindu wants the Ram temple first, then the government), but... it seems the BJP does not want people who believe in hindutva. After the results of election in five states, the downfall of the BJP has started. By claiming victory in 40 seats, the BJP has made it clear that it will have an alliance with the EVMs. In any case, the Shiv Sena is always willing to take attackers head on.”
A Sena insider told THE WEEK that the party was firm on contesting alone. “So far there is no change in our stand,” said the source. “Uddhavji has not indicated anything to that effect to the party. He is the only decision maker in our party. An ordinance on the Ram temple could have opened a way for realignment of both parties, but the prime minister clearly said in a recent interview that the government will not do so. We strongly feel that the Ram temple is an emotional issue for Hindus and 80 per cent Hindus will support the government that constructs the temple. The BJP has wasted that opportunity and the chances of an alliance are very bleak right now.”
While some Sena MPs like Shivajirao Adhalrao Patil still support the alliance, saying it would prevent splitting of votes, others such as Sanjay Raut are strongly against it. Reacting to Shah’s statement that the BJP could go it alone, Raut tweeted that the Sena had the soul of a tiger, and that Maharashtra had earlier tossed out Aurangzeb and Afzal Khan. He also told a Marathi channel that the BJP was following his party like a roadside romeo, and that his party was not at all interested.