Flashpoint Gaza: Hamas, Netanyahu stand to gain politically

ISRAEL-POLITICS-CONFLICT-PALESTINIAN Saved by rockets: Israel PM Benjamin Netanyahu | AFP

The day Hamas and Israel chose to launch the latest episode of their periodic conflict seems to be an interesting one. In Israel, May 10 is observed as Jerusalem Day to commemorate the annexation of east Jerusalem in 1967. But political observers were anticipating a different big bang, as six disparate political groups whose only common aim is to bring down Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were all set to announce a new coalition later that day. It would have given Israel a proper government after four elections in two years, and would have resulted in Netanyahu's exit, after being in power for 12 years. It would also have ended the immunity he enjoys against prosecution on corruption charges. But the rockets from Gaza sealed the fate of the talks and saved Netanyahu.


Like Netanyahu, Hamas, too, is likely to be a beneficiary of the ongoing crisis, although it does not appear to be a premeditated one. The organisation, which is supported by countries such as Iran and Qatar, has been trying for a long time to extend its sway over West Bank and it spotted an opportunity when the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority announced national elections, the first since 2006. President Mahmoud Abbas, however, cancelled the elections last month, infuriating Hamas. Israel's decision to evict Palestinians from the Sheikh Jarrah neighbourhood in east Jerusalem and the heightened tension between the Arabs and the Israelis in the holy city—common during the month of Ramadan—gave Hamas an opportunity to grab the initiative and fire rockets at Israel, inviting a predictable, disproportionate response. The attacks have boosted the image of Hamas, made it more popular on the Arab street and further discredited the Fatah leadership, which is seen as old, corrupt, self-serving and being on good terms with Israel.

The conflict has helped bring back the Arab-Israeli crisis to global limelight. The world had largely forgotten the issue and even Arab countries like the UAE and Bahrain started normalising ties with Israel under a deal brokered by the Trump administration, allegedly with the blessings of Saudi Arabia. The sudden escalation in Gaza seems to have altered that trajectory.

For Israel, the latest round of hostilities could turn out to be expensive. Unlike in the past, the Arab citizens of Israel are out on the streets. There have been clashes between Jews and Arabs across Israel and the ethno-religious rupture appears to be getting worse.

As it hoped, Hamas has found support in West Bank. During the previous rounds of hostilities—in 2009, 2012 and 2014—even when thousands of lives were lost in Gaza, there was hardly any response in West Bank. But things are different this time, with protests erupting in more than 200 places across West Bank, resulting in multiple deaths. Hamas has also found support in Jordan, and a few rockets were launched against Israel from Lebanon and Syria.

Israel will be disheartened by the underwhelming reaction from the US. Although President Joe Biden approved more weapons sales and reiterated American support for Israel, the White House readout of his telephonic conversation with Netanyahu shows that he also stressed on ensuring the Palestinians “dignity, security, freedom and economic opportunity”. The progressive wing of the Democratic party is solidly behind the Palestinians, and Biden will be under pressure to be more evenhanded while dealing with the Arab-Israel conflict. The public opinion in the US, too, is undergoing a change, with the some opinion polls showing up to 30 per cent of Americans viewing Palestinians favourably. Pro-Palestine marches have been reported from several cities across the world.

With Egypt stepping in to mediate, a ceasefire is possible. Netanyahu has consolidated his position within Israel, despite losing face globally. Hamas demonstrated its military prowess by firing more than 3,200 rockets into Israel in eight days. More importantly, it has emerged as the primary representative of the Palestinians and the protector of east Jerusalem, upstaging the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, and will be a key stakeholder in all future peace negotiations.