What after May?

The next British prime minister has just three months to deliver

BRITAIN-EU/MAY Walking a tightrope: Prime Minister Theresa May with former foreign minister Boris Johnson, the frontrunner to replace her | Reuters

The old order in Europe is shaken, but not broken. Mainstream centrist parties have lost vote share to surging far-right, populist and green parties in the European Parliament elections, the second largest democratic exercise in the world after the Indian general elections. A triumphant winner, the head of far right Lega party and Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini tweeted that the success of nationalist parties in “Italy, France, Hungary, Poland and Great Britain are signs that Europe is changing. People are tired of the powers of the elites, finance, the multinationals. From tomorrow we must redouble our efforts.”

The efforts of the newcomers will impact Europe’s stance on issues such as immigration, business and climate change, because this parliament approves or rejects legislation. The results will also shape national politics within the 28-member bloc, triggering consolidation or collapse of ruling coalitions, fresh elections and governance changes.

The ongoing leadership race in Brexit-burdened Britain will also be affected. The runaway success of the six-week-old populist Brexit Party headed by the redoubtable Nigel Farage and the shameful defeat of the Conservative Party in the European elections will encourage Tories to select a diehard Brexiter to replace Prime Minister Theresa May after she steps down on June 7. History will judge May harshly, said Kevin Maguire, Daily Mirror editor. “She was dealt a difficult hand and she played badly. She tried her best. It was not good enough,” said Maguire.

May’s resignation has ignited a ferocious leadership scrum in the Conservative Party that will culminate with the new prime minister taking office by July end. Said Tory MP Andrew Bridgen, “There are no more vicious attacks than during a Conservative Party leadership race. It’s a circle of firing squad.”

Under party rules, the 313 Tory MPs will shortlist two candidates and the winner will be chosen by 1.2 lakh party members—mostly white, middle-aged men. Conservative MP Mark Francois predicted, “When Tories are desperate, they go for a wild card. Farage is causing the desperation.” Analysts agree that the only Tory Brexiter who can “out-Farage Farage” and win back voters is frontrunner Boris Johnson, former London mayor and foreign minister.

Born in New York to English parents with Turkish ancestry, the “blond bombshell” or “Bojo” is known for his untidy hair, sloppy suits and quirky remarks. Johnson described actor Arnold Schwarzenegger as the “monosyllabic Austrian cyborg”, Tony Blair a “greased piglet”, Farage an “engaging geezer”, George Bush a “cross-eyed Texan warmonger” and veiled Muslim women as “bank robbers”. Johnson is popular but polarising. Supporters say he is clever, down-to-earth and funny. Critics say he is opportunistic, unreliable and outrageous. Johnson is being sued for “irresponsibility” and “criminal misconduct” for lying during his Brexit referendum campaign that UK gives £350 million a week to the EU.

Though Johnson, 54, is the bookie’s favourite, he is in a crowded leadership race. Prominent rivals are all Brexiters, though no one is as radical as him. Like Johnson, most of them have burnished their Brexit credentials by resigning from May’s cabinet in protest against her “bad Brexit deal”. A close second is Dominic Raab, 45, who resigned as Brexit secretary and is the youthful face of the party. Michael Gove, 51, environment minister in May’s cabinet, is a leading Bexiter who famously said, “Britons have had enough of experts”. He lost to May in the 2016 leadership race and then went on to knife his ally Johnson. The wide-eyed bespectacled politician said, “Whatever charisma is; I don’t have it.” No one disputes that.

Jeremy Hunt, 52, replaced Johnson as foreign minister. Like St. Paul, Hunt appears to have had his “Road to Damascus” moment, converting from wanting to remain in the EU to leaving. Now he said the EU’s negotiating tactics are “arrogant” and “disappointing.” Last year, in a speech to the Conservative Party conference, he drew severe criticism when he compared the EU to the Soviet Union.

Son of a Pakistani bus driver, Home Minister Sajid Javid, 49, is the slick poster boy for the successful integration of immigrants. The banker-turned-politician is also in the fray. As May’s de facto deputy, David Lidington is a natural successor. But proximity appears to have killed desire. Asked if he would succeed May, Lidington said a few months ago, “One thing that working closely with the prime minister does is cure you completely of any lingering shred of ambition to want to do that task.”

The 185-year-old Conservative Party prides itself as the oldest democratic party in the world. This year, it suffered its worst parliamentary defeat in British history when May’s Brexit deal was put to vote. And, it suffered its worst electoral debacle ever in the European polls. In addition to a fractious, haemorrhaging party, May’s successor will inherit all the unresolved Brexit problems.

But ambition trumps the intractability of problems. Leadership contestant Esther McVey vowed to “rebuild a UK that works for everyone”. That is exactly what May said. Johnson promises “resolute” leadership. May tried that to the point of stubbornness. His solution for breaking the Brexit deadlock is “a tougher negotiating stance with Brussels”.

The ace up the sleeve of some of the leadership contenders is their proclaimed willingness to go for a no-deal Brexit—leave the EU without a deal. Johnson insists he will lead Britain out of the EU by the October 31 deadline, “deal or no deal”. He dismisses the disastrous consequences of no deal saying, “Whatever the doomsayers may say… there will be no shortage of Mars bars. We will still have potable drinking water in Britain. The planes will fly.”

Johnson uses the no-deal threat as a negotiating ploy, asserting “the way to get a good deal is to prepare for a no deal”. But the EU will not renegotiate a good, better or another deal. Experts say crashing out of the EU without a deal will be chaotic until new trade agreements are negotiated under the World Trade Organization. That will take years.

The next prime minister has just three months to deliver Brexit—including August, when Europeans go on summer vacation. Sounding depressingly like a stuck record, all options still remain on the table—deal, no deal, another extension and general elections. What lies ahead—Brexit bedlam or breakthrough? As Johnson famously wrote in 2004, “There are no disasters, only opportunities. And, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters.”