in-his-second-coming-donald-trump-has-far-greater-political-capital-and-an-impractical-wish-list

Fri Jan 17 15:56:22 IST 2025

Washington, DC

This month, New York State Judge Juan Merchan handed president-elect Donald Trump an unconditional discharge in his criminal conviction for falsifying business records ahead of the 2016 elections. The sentence means that even though his crimes sometimes carry as many as four years in prison, Trump will not face any jail time, fines or probation.

Merchan admitted that the lenient sentence was a product of the fact that Trump has just been elected president a second time. “The protections [of the office of the president] are… a legal mandate which… this court must respect and follow,” the judge said. “This court has [therefore] determined that the only lawful sentence... is an unconditional discharge.”

The lack of punishment means that even though Trump will be the first convicted felon to take office in US history, he begins his second term with a whiff of preferential treatment and an air of vindication.

That preferential treatment and vindication goes far beyond the New York courtroom where Trump was sentenced. During his first term in office, Trump faced stiff resistance from all quarters, with people arguing that the president should not be given a free pass just because he is the president. Trump was routinely criticised and countered by fellow businessmen, Silicon Valley tycoons and powerful lobbies. He was even investigated by officials in his administration for a range of misdemeanours.

Now, the landscape appears to have changed as individuals and institutions recalibrate for Trump’s return.

In the run-up to the election, billionaire Jeff Bezos―who owns The Washington Post and had previously taken on Trump―directed his editors not to publish an endorsement for either presidential candidate. Bezos was ostensibly concerned that Trump may penalise his business interests if the newspaper endorsed his opponent.

In the same spirit, this month, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg brought his organisation closer to Trump’s political positions by scrapping his platform’s fact-checking measures and diversity hiring initiatives. Zuckerberg was previously a keen supporter of a handful of progressive causes that had put him at odds with Trump.

There are also signs of change within government institutions. Days ago, federal prosecutor Jack Smith, who led federal investigations against Trump for years, resigned from his post.

In effect, Trump now returns to the White House with far greater political capital than he enjoyed the first time. When Trump became president in 2016, many people saw him as an anomalous outsider to Washington who had won office under unusual circumstances. That gave Trump’s political rivals and government institutions a greater sense of freedom to counterbalance him. This time, however, Trump takes oath as a firmly established political figure, forcing those around him to adjust to his quirks rather than counteract them.

Trump’s expanded political capital could prove tricky to navigate for the rest of the world because it makes it harder to differentiate his serious policy ideas from his unserious bombast. Even before taking the oath of office, Trump has made a series of comments that seem somewhat difficult to believe. Over the past few weeks, for instance, Trump has suggested that he would use military force to annex Greenland and capture the Panama Canal. He has also called Canada the “51st state” of the United States and hinted at using economic coercion to acquire it. In the same expansionist vein, Trump vowed to rename the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America.”

These comments followed other similarly radical ideas such as imposing tariffs on all goods imported into the United States, deporting millions of illegal immigrants and slashing a whopping $2 trillion in government spending.

Understandably, observers and policymakers worldwide are worried about the possibility that Trump may follow through on these promises. Each of them would unsettle global geopolitics, derail economic transactions and potentially cause law and order crises in the US. But, owing to a series of hurdles, most or all of them are unlikely to happen.

In the wake of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, most Americans, including those who support Trump, may not support the deployment of military troops in Canada, Greenland or Panama. Universal import tariffs will almost certainly raise inflation―an issue that had emerged as a key factor in last year’s presidential elections―and will face significant backlash from powerful business groups. Similarly, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency does not currently have the funding or manpower necessary to identify and deport as many illegal immigrants as Trump has promised.

Yet, even if Trump fails to implement his radical ideas, his rhetoric should still worry both Americans and the rest of the world. Trump’s words inject further uncertainty and volatility into a world that has already been riven by war and geopolitical tensions. In the face of geopolitical risks, particularly owing to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and tensions between the US and China, global businesses are already in the costly process of reorienting their supply chains and operations. Trump’s rhetoric only serves to complicate that process and will further hurt investor confidence.

Despite the risks of volatility that Trump will bring to office, there may yet be good news for India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi enjoyed a friendly relationship with Trump during his first term, replete with large political rallies in both India and the US. Modi now looks poised to carry that goodwill forward into Trump’s second term.

There have already been positive signs on issues dear to New Delhi. Over the years, Trump had denounced the H-1B visa programme used by US corporations to hire skilled immigrants, arguing that the programme was “unfair” to American workers. During his first term in office, Trump’s crackdown on the programme had hurt foreign students and workers looking for jobs in the US. Trump now appears to have reversed his position. When asked about the visa last month, he said: “We need competent people. We need smart people coming into our country. We need a lot of people coming in.”

The liberalisation of H-1B visas has long been a policy priority for New Delhi. Indian immigrants have long been disproportionately benefited from H-1B visas, which means that if Trump liberalises the programme, Indian students in the US would enjoy greater access to employment opportunities in the country.

Nonetheless, like most other regional and global powers, India would still need to adapt to a more transactional foreign policy under Trump. Under President Joe Biden, New Delhi had successfully nurtured a partnership centred on countering the challenge from China. In the interest of that shared goal, Biden had invested heavily in the strategic partnership with India, giving New Delhi access to high-end US defence technology while still respecting India’s strategic autonomy posture on issues of US interest.

Trump may prefer a more transactional defence partnership, eliciting more from India in return for similar cooperation. The success of India-US ties may now hinge on the extent to which New Delhi can convince Trump that the alliance is still worthwhile to him.

in-damascus-the-scars-of-assads-regime-are-still-fresh-but-a-fragile-hope-is-blooming-amid-the-ruins

Sat Dec 28 15:14:42 IST 2024

DAMASCUS

“WAIT, LOOK, here is another one!”

We walked gingerly to where Hassan was calling us. In his right hand was a rag, and in his left, what seemed to be a human bone. We were in Hassan’s home district of Tadamon, an area in Damascus that held, and still harbours, some of the ousted Bashar al-Assad regime’s darkest secrets.

In 2022, horrifying footage, as reported in The Guardian, emerged of a 2013 massacre in the district―where blindfolded detainees were led to a brutal death in an execution pit. The jarring visuals were leaked by a rookie in the Syrian military who chanced upon the video and decided to speak out about the atrocities of the regime. The regime stayed in power until rebel forces, headed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), overthrew Assad in a lightning offensive in December.

We asked some residents where the suspected mass graves were. “There’s one here,” they would say, pointing to our feet. “One there,” pointing about 30 metres away. “One behind that building,” gesturing towards a destroyed building just across the street. “There are mass graves all around us.”

The veil of death and destruction shadows Damascus even after its perpetrators fled. There were piles of rubble and mud perhaps four metres high, allegedly created by the Assad regime to hide their bloody activities. Hidden among the piles were bones. Residents I met were convinced that under the mounds of mud there are many, many more.

“We would sometimes see a big bus full of people being brought to the area,” says Hassan. “In about three hours, we would smell burning flesh.”

My colleague mentioned the footage we had seen on The Guardian website, and one of the men we were with said he knew the exact location where the video was filmed. We made our way through winding paths, laced on each side by old or destroyed buildings.

As we approached our destination, I noticed a boy, no older than 13, playing on a raised platform, seemingly the ground floor of a ruined building. The buildings in the area were skeletal now―just columns and open spaces, devoid of doors or windows. As he overheard our conversation, he picked something up off the ground and held it up.

“Look, bone.”

Making our way up the dusty stairs, we found it was not the only one. Someone picked up what was clearly part of a human jaw with two molars. They placed it on what looked like a hip bone. I knelt down and took a photo.

All the people with us took it upon themselves to show us all the evidence of the killings they were aware of for over a decade but dared never whisper a word about. Someone brought a piece of vertebrae; another was holding up what he believed was a portion of a skull. One of them emptied a whole bag of bones onto the floor, asking us to photograph it.

Later, our fixer, Moe Nejim, told me that one of the children had mentioned the bag being a collection of bones he found while playing among the destruction.

Moe, too, has his tale of horror from Tadamon. A resident of Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp, right next to Tadamon, he told me that as an 18-year-old he had been taken by the army to serve as a bargaining chip for the release of an alleged regime spy at the camp, who had been taken hostage by the Free Syrian Army.

Moe said he was kept in detention for 58 days in the basement of a building. On the back of his hand is a scar left by his hostage-keepers who stubbed out their cigarettes on him. Right above it, “2013” is tattooed in Arabic―the year of his capture.

Six days before his release, Moe was taken to another room and told that he was going to be killed. While waiting, he heard an unusual number of gunshots―maybe one every ten seconds. Later, an officer persuaded the other guards to keep Moe alive for a potential exchange deal.

Nine years later, while reading the Guardian article, he realised that the day he had heard all those gunshots was the day of the Tadamon massacre. He told me that he, too, was surprised at the vastness of death in the area.

Right next to the piles of mud suspected to be mass graves was a playground. It is hard for me to even begin to grasp how children perceive death―children who have spent their entire lives in a neighbourhood where detention and death were ever present.

The sense of dread, however, is gradually dissipating.

“Now, my fear is gone, thank God,” says Hassan, his voice filled with a newfound lightness. “The repression and torture won’t return, I think.”

People are still reeling from shocking discoveries, but the atmosphere is also filled with hope and festivity. A day earlier, I had been walking in Al-Hamidiyah Souq, looking for Bakdash ice cream. As I traversed the large crowds and narrow paths, I caught glimpses of the new flag sewn onto winter beanies, and many stalls selling souvenirs with the flag on it. Mobile vendors had the flag perched on top of their cart.

When I got to the ice cream shop, I saw four staff members, each with the flag sewn onto his shirt, preparing their product while loudly singing the “Syria, Paradise” song, one that was widely linked to the country’s revolution. As they kept beat with their pestles, many customers joined in with the singing, some filming, some clapping along.

Despite this sense of relief and victory that prevails throughout the city, many Syrians are worried about what new governance and their policies will look like.

On December 19, about 250 people gathered near the capital’s Umayyad Square for a ‘Secular Youth Protest’, holding up the new Syrian flag and chanting in unison for a secular state. The demonstration came after HTS spokesperson Obeida Arnaout’s controversial remarks on the role of women, including casting doubt on whether women could take up judicial positions. He mentioned that the biological and psychological makeup of women did not align with some roles, like being in charge of the defence ministry.

I met Razan, a dental technician, who was holding up a huge painting of a girl with a Syrian flag painted on her cheek. “It symbolises a free woman,” she explained. As we talked, the crowd erupted in chants of “One, the people of Syria are one.”

There were a few rebel members in the vicinity, but none of them seemed to involve themselves much in the demonstration.

Lana, a third-year architecture student at Damascus University, said she felt “so happy” after the regime’s overthrow. But she was still worried about what will follow. “We’re afraid of the unknown,” she said.

Many people I talked to told me that the uncertainty of the future worried them. Hanan was one of them. “The most important thing for me as a woman is to know our role,” says Hanan. “We want to be hand in hand with men to build a new Syria.”

The overthrow of the government has begun to soothe the scars of the past for many. When I was at Tadamon, I met a soft-spoken man, perhaps in his late 70s or early 80s. As we were talking to him, someone mentioned that he had spent 13 years in Saydnaya prison after being accused of being part of the Muslim Brotherhood.

“Tell them about what you saw,” someone urged.

“Why? So I can be taken again?”

His hands were shaking, whether from age or fear, I could not tell. He was with us throughout, his eyes constantly scanning the ground for the remnants of human life.

As we were leaving, one person said, “Come on, take his photo!”

I lifted my camera. At first, he mumbled, averting his eyes. Someone placed a hand of encouragement on his back.

“The regime is gone,” they kept repeating.

The man lifted his eyes, ready to pose.

“His name is Abdul Rahman.”

The wrinkles next to his eyes creased as Abdul smiled.

india-has-to-balance-its-security-and-diplomatic-interests-with-syria-at-the-same-time

Sat Dec 28 11:52:52 IST 2024

IN MARCH 2015, a source in Turkey informed Indian agencies that Dr Shahnawaz Alam, an Indian Mujahideen operative, was declared dead in Syria. The source had photos of Alam in Turkey before he crossed over. A special cell of the Delhi Police was keeping a close watch and a team was ready to travel in plain clothes just to confirm the news, but the plan was dropped. India did not want to risk diplomatic embarrassment, given the growing uncertainty in the region.

Soon after, there was information that Alam’s accomplices, Bada Sajid and Abu Rashid, were also killed. All three men from Azamgarh in Uttar Pradesh had fled India after the Batla House encounter in Delhi in 2008. They reached the Islamic State-held territory in late 2013 or early 2014 after spending time in Pakistan and Afghanistan, said senior police officers. Some others, such as Anwar Hussain and Shafi Armar from Bhatkal in Karnataka, were also reported dead.

The Azamgarh module, along with some like-minded operatives, was believed to have formed a splinter group of the Indian Mujahideen, called Ansar ut Tawhid, to fight alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan. But as IS influence among jihadists grew across the world, many reportedly shifted base to Syria and Iraq. By 2015, news of killings of many IS mercenaries started trickling in.

Alam’s death was important for security agencies as it meant another blow to the terror group that had its roots in the Students’ Islamic Movement of India. Since 2012, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had been deporting big catches such as Abdul Wahid Siddibappa, the alleged IM financier, and his mentor Fasih Mehmood. A few others, like alleged bomb-maker Tahseen Akhtar and Waqas, were also brought back to India with cooperation from neighbouring countries.

These deaths or arrests, however, did not kill the ideology. In 2016, a group of people from Kerala went to Afghanistan to join the Islamic State-Khorasan Province; some were even suspected to have reached Syria.

Ever since, Indian security agencies have been worried about Khorasan and Syria becoming a breeding ground for radicals fighting for the caliphate.

The entry of foreign terrorist fighters into Syria is being seen as a result of a tactical shift by Al Qaeda to expand and reach out to fragmented terror groups.

Therefore, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its support groups, which overthrew the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, are being closely analysed.

HTS chief Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (real name Ahmed al-Sharaa) was born in Saudi Arabia in 1982. His father was an oil engineer there till 1989 before the family returned to its homeland of Syria. Jolani had stints with Al Qaeda in Iraq and the IS, but he started distancing himself from them after he set up al-Nusra Front in 2011 to fight the Assad regime. In 2016, he renamed his group the Jabhat Fatah al-Sham before branding it Hayat Tahrir al-Sham the following year.

Indian agencies believe that the banners can be different, but the fluidity between terrorist organisations for tactical gains still exists in this region. “It has the potential to spill over and influence the radical space in the Indian subcontinent once again,” said a security official.

However, Talmiz Ahmad, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman, said: “It is an overwhelmingly Syrian phenomenon. HTS has absolutely no connection with a transnational movement. Whether it is Islamic State in Syria, Khorasan or its online activities, there is no evidence to suggest large-scale influence or activity in India.”

Also, on the 22 or 23 people from Kerala who reportedly went to Raqqa to join the IS, he said: “Some may have died, some got arrested when they came back. We do not know their fate as the government has shared no information publicly. But after that, there hasn’t been any migration to the region in the past decade or so.”

Similarly, the Islamic State of Khorasan, located in different parts of Afghanistan, evolved as an overwhelmingly Pakistani movement made up of splinter groups from Taliban. While there have been some sporadic acts of violence ascribed to the IS-K in the past few years, there has been no spillover into India, Ahmad pointed out.

He added that only a handful of people in the vast Indian diaspora in the Gulf were reported to Indian authorities for suspicious online activity. “Compare this to the Maldives or Norway, where hundreds were reported to have gone to Raqqa,” he said. “In fact, reports suggest that a large number of people entered from Europe and the US.”

Ahmad is optimistic about the impact of the rise of HTS and its support base in Syria. “The minority community in India has rejected the idea of the maximum,” he said. “What we need to be concerned about is cross-communal radicalisation. This means that because of the communalisation of one community, it has a mirror impact on the other community.”

What is of common concern to both the security and diplomatic community is the prolonged conflict Syria is staring at. “Assad’s ouster and assault on the military capacity of Syria can lead to a repeat of what we saw in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya,” warned Ahmad. “[Syria] is a large country, well populated and strategically located. And there will be a serious problem if the conflict continues.”

He recommended an Asian initiative by Delhi, involving Japan, China, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia, to prevent Syria from entering the league of broken countries where militant outfits are ruling the roost, especially with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts.

The time is also ripe for Delhi to learn from past mistakes―the experience in Afghanistan still hangs heavy in diplomatic circles. “Even when China and Russia were getting in touch with the Taliban government in Afghanistan, we were refusing to talk to them,” said K.P. Fabian, who served as first secretary in Iran during the revolution. “But India wasn’t the only one to go slow; even the west led by Washington dragged its feet in engaging the Taliban government. In diplomacy, you can still do business with your enemy, and here we are only talking of keeping strategic concerns and people’s interests in mind.”

Notably, Jolani’s track record in Idlib―which al Nusra captured in 2015―was different from the image he had previously built. “He gave importance to governance over extremism, defeated Al Qaeda and IS in the power game and reached out to the minorities in ways that drew acknowledgment if not complete support,” said Fabian. “Whatever be the case, it will be premature to say it is the resurrection of the IS or Al Qaeda with the ouster of Assad by Jolani’s forces. There are also no mass protests by the pubic demanding Assad’s return.”

The big question is whether India will be able to balance its security and diplomatic interests at the same time. This would only be possible, said a senior security official, if Delhi is able to leverage any presence it has in the region to steer its interests in a holistic way. “This is the reason we need to build a stronger presence in the region,” said the official.

What is also important is for India to not take its eye off the ball. On November 21, a Syrian delegation visited Delhi and talked about capacity building and joint efforts in strengthening the pharmaceutical industry. In less than a week, the ministry of external affairs asked all Indians to stay in touch with its embassy after Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Daraa and finally Damascus fell to the rebels.

While the debate around battles being fought between rebel and regime forces continues in strategic war rooms, the tiny village of Sanjarpur in Uttar Pradesh―once linked to extremist ideology and Syrian battlefields―is oblivious to the turn of events. Shahnawaz Alam’s family denies any news of him entering killing fields in far-off lands. “Earlier, they used to say he has gone to Pakistan, but a few years back some police officers told us that he died in Afghanistan,” said Shadab Ahmad alias Mister, his father. “After that, someone said it was Iraq and then they said he died in Syria. It is all a campaign to malign us.”

Ahmad, a father of ten, runs a cloth shop in Sanjarpur and addresses his eldest as ‘doctor saheb’; he is proud that his son completed his MBBS, in Allahabad.

Alam’s teacher Masihuddin Ansari, who runs a coaching centre in Sanjarpur, taught most of the boys of that generation. “Their lives revolved around the 200-square-yard playground here,” he said. “To think they could find their way to Syria is something I cannot comprehend.”

The security agencies cannot be so sure. And so, they are revisiting reams of paper narrating confessions of jailed terrorists and dossiers tracing their journeys to the lands of Al Qaeda and the IS.

inside-bashar-al-assads-infamous-sednaya-prison-also-referred-to-as-a-human-slaughterhouse

Mon Dec 16 17:48:22 IST 2024

DAMASCUS

I LOOKED OUT of the window as my car slowly rolled out of Lebanon through the gates of the Masnaa border crossing. We were greeted by unmanned Syrian checkposts, and stared down at ripped off posters of a face that once instilled fear within these borders and beyond.

I live in Beirut, yet was always daunted by the idea of travelling to Syria, despite it being just a couple of hours away. The first reason was the paperwork; the second was a question to myself: should I be funding the dictatorial Bashar al-Assad’s government. When I found out that foreign journalists were slowly considering travelling to Syria, I booked a seat on one of the first sets of taxis.

In less than two weeks, rebel groups in Syria had ended the country’s 13-year civil war in a shock overthrow of the country’s longstanding president. Headed by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, leader of the main rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), they first took over Aleppo, in the country’s northwest, then advanced south, taking over key cities Hama, Homs, and then finally Damascus.

Since Russia’s 2015 entry into Syria’s civil war, Assad had enjoyed the country’s diplomatic and military support, as well as that of Iran, and Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah. However, potentially due to the war in Ukraine and the fragile Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal, none of these groups could―or would―support the cornered Assad. Closed in on by different groups in Damascus, Assad fled to Russia, which says it granted him asylum on “humanitarian”grounds. The move marked an abrupt end to over half a century of the Assad family rule.

As our car drove further inland, we saw the remains of what was once a duty-free store. Bullet shells riddled the floor, as did shattered glass from the windows and smashed liquor bottles. The occasional group walked into what was left of the shop, carrying out cartons of whiskey and vodka. Nearing Damascus, we began to see the remnants of nearly six decades of military rule―abandoned tanks looming over us, and naturally more torn posters.

Al-Jolani’s HTS was formed under the name of Nusra Front as a branch of Al Qaeda in Syria. The United States has designated it a terror organisation. Over a decade ago, al-Jolani, now using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa, defied Islamic State (IS) calls to merge and form the Islamic State of Syria and Iraq, and for years has put forth his group’s new stance as one that encourages diversity and pluralism, as opposed to a previous hardline, Islamist one.

The sound of bullets being fired into the air and the scent of gunpowder were ubiquitous. As we drove past rebels on the street, I’d point my camera at them and they’d usually pose, holding up either their weapon, a V-shaped peace sign with their fingers, or both. On the streets, one could see torn down Assad flags and new Syrian ones. I saw a group of men dancing, with one standing on a car holding up a huge flag, and often, large cars would whizz past you playing loud music, with jubilant Syrians looking out of the windows.

Standing outside a destroyed police station in the neighbourhood of Bab Touma, I spoke to Amir Al Adar, a 26-year-old anaesthetist who had been hoping to travel to Germany. He had applied for a passport, and was due to receive it in about a month, but the building that housed his documents was burnt down by the rebels.

“Over the past two days, I felt every feeling,”he said, with an expression of disbelief.

Anmar Murat, 27, from Suwayda, shared a similar sentiment.

“I can’t believe there’s no dictator,”he said. “I can say ‘F**k Assad’.”

One of the first places that our group went to was Assad’s infamous Sednaya prison, referred to as a “human slaughterhouse”. We drove near the top of the mountain on which it is situated, and the roads were lined with people in cars, vans, motorbikes or on foot, searching for loved ones. With the heavy traffic, our group got out of the car and split, ready to tackle the rest of the trip on foot.

As we were climbing, a man behind us stopped us. While covering the war in Lebanon, I was often stopped by authorities on the road asking me not to film, and have experienced hostile reactions to my being a journalist. Still accustomed to that perception of my profession, I wasn’t too friendly.

He asked us to film him. He told us that he had family in the prison, who had been detained since 2012, under what he says were false accusations of owning weapons.

“We call on international organisations and the Arab world to help us dig and find those trapped in the lower floors of the prison,”he said.

He was one of thousands. I saw countless people―some even children―sitting in vans, staring up at the large white building that might have once housed the ones they loved.

Raghda Mubarak Al Makouri, peering out of a van to talk to me, told me that her brothers had been taken 13 years ago. Later, she told me she wasn’t even sure whether they had been imprisoned in Sednaya.

“I don’t even know if they’re dead or alive,” she admitted.

Trudging up the dirt path of the mountain, I was reminded of my uphill climb to the Sabarimala temple in Kerala with my father. This time around, it wasn’t a pilgrimage for me, but as I spoke to the people with me, I realised that for them it was an endeavour in love and hope.

The ground rattled and I heard a large rumble. “Sonic boom or airstrike?”I asked someone.

“Airstrike; Israel,” came the reply.

Since the takeover, Israel has conducted over 350 airstrikes in Syria, allegedly bombing weapons to avoid them reaching the hands of the rebels. They conducted airstrikes including near the Mezzeh air base and are also hitting the country’s naval capabilities, with attacks on the ports of Al-Bayda and Latakia. On foot, they have inched further into the country, taking up new positions beyond a demilitarised zone in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Entering the prison, I photographed the thousands of people who were flocking in large groups, some staring at the bulldozer that was burrowing through the floor, as people sought hidden doors. Others used more rudimentary methods―pickaxes and the like―to break through the walls.

A 30-year-old rebel named Mohammed, who later told me he liked Bollywood icon Salman Khan, offered to show me and a Brazilian journalist I was with, around the prison. He helped us down tunnels of sorts, created by breaking the floor, and enthusiastically led us into the prison cells they had found. Some contained shoes and clothes, and most walls bore etchings of people’s names, addresses and calendars to mark the time they had spent in jail. He led us to a room containing piles and piles of prisoners’clothes. It was eerie.

As the three of us traversed through the throng, Mohammed kept his hand over the muzzle of his rifle, which he had slung over his back. I was constantly aware that one wrong shove could lead to faouda―Arabic for chaos―a word I heard innumerable times at the prison. I must admit that a lot of our conversation was lost in translation; with my basic Arabic and his sparse English, we made a great pair.

Mohammed then showed us the human iron press allegedly used to kill prisoners. As he explained its mechanisms, I thought I saw him tear up a tad and his voice crack. Later, we went to the room where the bodies were allegedly dissolved in acid―the acrid smell and the plastic bags in which the bodies were put were all that was left of the horrors that the room had witnessed.

With us most of the time was a 16-year-old rebel called Omar. Donning a camo jacket, he was shorter than me (I’m 1.6 metres) and I’d have taken him to be a couple of years younger. Mohammed walked my colleague and I down nearly halfway from the prison, and hesitant to leave two foreign women journalists alone, later sent Omar to walk us to our car.

Omar had a pleasant demeanour, but I couldn’t see him as just any teenage boy, knowing that he’d seen all the things I’d just seen, and probably even worse. In the room, he had been the one who poked the plastic bags to check if they contained corpses. When I said goodbye to him, I did wonder what would happen to him, and whether we would cross paths again.

“Israel’s been bombing us lately,”he said casually.

“What do you think of Israel?”I asked him. He responded with a tilt up of his head and raised eyebrows―a common gesture in both Lebanon and Syria, often used to signify defiance.

“So you’re not a fan of Israel nor Assad,”I said.

He laughed and said, “I was in Lebanon before this,”by way of explanation.

Omar used to live in Dahye, a southern suburb of Beirut that was subjected to heavy Israeli bombing. “I came back to Syria during the war,” he said.

I asked him why he had joined the rebels.

“Well, my family was part of the group, and they asked me to join, and I said okay,”he said.

Fear lingers among the populace about what the future holds for the nation. With the appointment of Mohammed al-Bashir as interim prime minister by the rebels, and the gradual re-establishment of a system by way of border control, things seem to be on a path of order and stability. However, Bashar al-Assad, too, once brought hope that he would be a reformist, after taking over the presidency from his father Hafez al-Assad.

Leaning against my car, I asked Omar if he missed Lebanon.

“Very much,” he said, earnestly. “All my friends are there.”

I asked him if he’d return.

“Yes, after the revolution,”he told me.

“And when will that be?”I asked.

He shrugged.

“It will finish when it finishes,”he said.

We stared up at the white building, and the row of people still climbing the hill to reach it.

“Hopefully soon,”he added, with a slight smile.

The writer is a multimedia journalist with an interest in politics and society. She has worked in Hong Kong, Lebanon and Syria, with media outlets including AFP, Anadolu Agency, DW, El Pais, NBC and CNN.

the-people-of-syria-must-channel-their-shared-hope-into-building-a-nation-that-reflects-their-aspirations

Sat Dec 14 16:26:17 IST 2024

WHEN Bashar al-Assad’s government fell, the moment was celebrated as a triumph of justice over oppression. Crowds flooded the streets, tearing down statues and chanting slogans of freedom. For years, they endured. Families torn apart, economy crippled by corruption and freedoms snuffed out under the iron fist of repression. This is the story of a society reclaiming its identity, struggling to build a future from the rubble.

WHAT LED TO THE FALL?

Internal dissent and uprising

This was fuelled by religious sentiment from across the border, where regional powers exploited sectarian divisions to advance their own agenda. This external influence amplified internal grievances, turning local dissent into a larger proxy struggle.

Prolonged conflict and loss of territory

Syria faced multiple fronts against rebel groups and terrorist organisations such as the IS, Al Qaeda and Kurdish forces, leading to a loss of control over large swathes of territory.

Weakened defence forces

A key factor behind the growing dissent within the Syrian army was the denial of basic rights and financial support for soldiers who were struggling to survive in harsh economic conditions. Meanwhile, fighters supported by neighbouring countries, including mercenaries and rebel groups, were receiving hefty financial support. The unfair distribution of resources fuelled discontent, contributing to defections and weakening the cohesion of the army.

Another critical factor was the regime’s refusal to modernise its military. The Syrian government largely relied on outdated equipment and tactics, which demoralised the troops. While Iranian and Russian military aid provided short-term relief, it also made the Syrian regime reliant on foreign powers, weakening national autonomy and eroding confidence among its military.

Economic conditions

No doubt, the economic sanctions imposed on Syria played a significant role in worsening the livelihood of the people. These sanctions severely restricted Syria’s ability to trade, access vital resources and receive international financial support. As a result, the economy suffered, leading to high unemployment, inflation and a lack of basic necessities such as food, medicine and fuel. The Syrian citizen bore the brunt as wages stagnated while the cost of living continued to rise. This economic decline, combined with the government’s inability or unwillingness to address the needs of the population, fuelled frustration and resentment. This contributed to the growing dissent and ultimately the unrest that would spiral into the ongoing conflict.

FOREIGN INTERVENTION

The brutal crackdown on peaceful demonstrations escalated dissent into an armed rebellion, creating an opportunity for foreign powers to exploit the internal crisis. Players such as Turkey, the US, Israel and the EU and some of the Gulf states provided funding, arms and logistical support to various opposition groups. Turkey played a pivotal role from the outset, providing support to armed groups and granting mercenaries from across the globe a haven in Idlib, effectively placing them under Turkish protection. Groups like the IS and Jabhat al-Nusra capitalised on the chaos, creating parallel threats to the regime while attracting global attention.

The Donald Trump factor played a pivotal role in shaping the course of events in the Middle East. Elected with a promise to end America’s involvement in longstanding conflicts, Trump aimed to withdraw US troops from Iraq and Syria, marking a shift in US foreign policy. His ‘America First’ agenda emphasised reducing military interventions abroad and focusing on domestic priorities.

The new Syria is facing major challenges after dissolving the army, and the inability to regain full control of its territory might lead to a de facto partition of Syria; there could be separate Kurdish-controlled areas supported by the US. Now Syria is under the influence of Turkey, reflecting Ankara’s agenda.

Several scenarios could emerge for the future of the region, heavily influenced by evolving geopolitical and internal dynamics. Among these is the controversial idea of an “Israeli project for Greater Israel”, often referenced in debates about Israel’s regional ambitions. This notion―rooted in historical, religious and ideological narratives―suggests territorial expansion that could encompass lands from the Nile to the Euphrates, including parts of Sinai, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and one-third of Saudi Arabia. The incursion of Israeli troops closer to Damascus would be in violation of the 1974 truce between the two countries.

US policies often align with Israeli interests, with overlapping elements and differing objectives rooted in their unique political, strategic and ideological goals. But the implication is devastating for the region. There will be prolonged instability due to external interventions, fragmentation of states and rising sectarian tensions, displacement and suffering of local populations and finally there will be resistance movements that further destabilise the region.

The Iranian project will face challenges and the ‘Axis of Resistance’(a coalition of Iran-supported groups that work to counter US and Israel influence) suffers a big blow after the fall of Syria and the spillover will be felt in Lebanon, Iraq and even Iran. Russia and Iran will be the biggest losers in the Syrian fiasco, but Israel is the sole beneficiary.

Whether these scenarios remain theoretical or begin to influence actual policies, the region’s future will depend on the ability of its nations to resist external pressures, foster regional unity and pursue inclusive political solutions that prioritise the aspirations of their people.

The shifting dynamics in Syria have profound implications for the Middle East. The jubilation of the moment, while deserved, is only the first step. The people of Syria must channel their shared hope into building a nation that reflects their aspirations. Their journey forward is fraught with difficulty, but it is also rich with the promise of a Syria reborn.

The writer is a senior journalist and West Asia strategist

laidback-brazil-follows-its-own-rules-with-world-leaders-g20-summit

Sat Nov 30 12:36:12 IST 2024

FOR A COUNTRY WHICH prioritises football, carnival and samba over statecraft and diplomacy, a goof-up over the “family photo”of leaders at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro last month was not surprising.

Protocol in Brazil has been customarily so lax that when Pope Benedict XVI visited Brazil in 2007, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva held the pontiff by his arm. Last year, Lula again discomfited believers around the world when he embraced Pope Francis during a visit to the Vatican. The hug reverberated through the conformist Vatican media. Ever since anyone can remember, the Catholic pontiff is shown respect by the laity by kissing the ring on his right hand. Touching his holiness is a strict no, no unless the pope initiates physical contact. It has been the same with British monarchs. Lula ignored protocol and defied tradition, risking the ire of Catholics in Brazil, whose number outranks the faithful in any other country.

On the final day of G20, it was not until the heads of state and government assembled against the stunning backdrop of Rio de Janeiro’s Sugarloaf Mountain and Lula, the summit’s host, took his central place before the camera that someone realised that three important world leaders were missing: US President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy and her Canadian counterpart Justin Trudeau. There was never any official explanation for the fumble, but in all probability, it was the usual Brazilian laxity in such matters that eventually necessitated a reshoot later in the day. There are reports that it was the first time in G20’s history that leaders had to be reassembled for a second photo shoot.

Summit group photos are precious mementos. But no such photo is more sacred in multilateral diplomacy than the one taken annually during the UN General Assembly. The ritual began in January 1946 when the first General Assembly convened in London. With only 51 leaders then, it was a routine, if memorable picture. Since then, the UN’s membership has grown to 193. Taking their group photo has grown into a huge pictorial, logistical and diplomatic challenge. Those who insist that the UN has failed should consider how it fits into a camera frame more than 200 people, including senior UN staff. All of them have tightly-packed itineraries during their late September week in New York, but no one misses the group photo. Brazil’s inability to get two dozen people for a photo shoot stands out in stark contrast.

It is a time-honoured diplomatic practice that countries which host multilateral meetings plan elaborate programmes for spouses while the leaders are discussing weighty global issues. Brazil is different. It rarely bothers about spouses accompanying leaders to their country. When prime minister Manmohan Singh went to Brasilia in 2010 for two plurilateral meetings, Lula’s government left all the accompanying spouses high and dry for two days. Fortuitously, Ratna Prakash, wife of the Indian ambassador, had planned a backup which exposed Gursharan Kaur to facets of Brazilian life, which very few Indian visitors come across. Brazil has a long way to go to catch up with India as a host of multilateral summits.

The author was a foreign correspondent in Washington.

us-presidential-elections-kamala-harris-donald-trump

Sat Oct 26 15:54:01 IST 2024

Washington, DC, Iowa and Minneapolis

As one drives along the 169-mile-long St Croix river, a tributary of the Mississippi that connects Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz’s home city Minneapolis to the politically fractious swing state of Wisconsin, the motifs announcing support for Kamala Harris are gradually outnumbered by billboards of Donald Trump, illustrating the hard combat the Democrats face in the November 5 election, despite their slender, yet persistent lead in opinion polls.

Economy and border security remain pressing concerns for voters, animated as many of them are with Trump’s nationalist rhetoric relayed in his big rallies and raucous television bytes. According to Trump, the people’s economic hardships, especially the skyrocketing food prices, are a fallout of, among other factors, unwarranted spending on immigrants’ settlements. He has attempted to seize people’s economic frustrations and optimise human tragedies brought about by Hurricane Milton to lend a coat of credibility to his portrayal of the American society beset by “fleeing jobs” and “criminals pouring in” from outside the borders.

“They [Democrats] stole the FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) money, just like they stole it from a bank, so they could give it to their illegal immigrants...,” Trump told a public meeting in Michigan on October 10. Congress allocated $650 million in the 2024 fiscal year to fund a programme that helps state and local governments house migrants, but there is no data to support Trump’s charges that FEMA disaster assistance money was diverted to house immigrants.

There is no dearth of voters who approve of Trump’s everyday vilification of illegal immigrants. “Where is all the money going?” asked Steve, a 30-something from Iowa. He questioned the Biden administration’s spending on immigrants, alleging that “criminals from Venezuela are infiltrating the US”. He said he was dissatisfied with Biden’s handling of the economy, and would vote for either Trump or a third party candidate, but “not Democrats”.

In terms of numbers, Biden’s record on the economy is not dismal. For the last two years, the unemployment rate has been under 4 per cent, a record in the past five decades. But public perception has been scathing in the face of soaring food prices.

Harris, the first woman of colour to win the presidential nomination of a major party, has pioneered a vision pivoted on what she describes as an “opportunity economy”. She has promised to pursue many of Biden’s stated objectives and public policies, such as providing tax credits to middle-class and lower-income families and lowering drug costs.

Harris is limning her image as a leader who battled economic odds to rise to prominence. In the presidential debate with Trump on September 10, she said: “I grew up a middle-class kid. I was raised by a hardworking mother, who like so many people across our nation, had big dreams and aspirations for her children…. I believe when the middle class is strong, America is strong.” She has promised a tax break for more than 100 million Americans.

Audrey, a storekeeper at the Mall of America in Minneapolis, is an enthusiastic Harris supporter. “Trump has never gone to a departmental store to buy essentials. He can’t relate to our livelihood issues. He is a business guy,” she said. Visibly apprehensive that “another Trump presidency could perfect his ‘otherisation’ of the African-Americans”, the community to which she belongs, Audrey said she would make sure that Democrats in her neighbourhood would vote on November 5.

A firefighter from Washington, DC, who wanted to remain anonymous, echoed Audrey’s revulsion at Trump’s anti-immigrant messages. “It hurts people, and it’s dangerous. But the best way to extinguish people’s negative rhetoric is to ignore, and not let these negative emotions circulate in the election season,” he said. During the presidential debate on September 10, Trump said of Haitian immigrants: “In Springfield, they are eating the dogs. The people that came in, they are eating the cats.”

However, the impassioned exhortations building a case for Harris may be limited to the ‘Never Trump’ constituency rather than representing the sentiment of undecided voters. She faces several impediments that make the race arduous for her.

One of them is the vexing debate on how people perceive leadership. Trump has perfected an idea of leadership that initially seized on people’s economic frustrations and attracted them with quick-fix solutions, but later focused on waging a full-scale harassment campaign against immigrants and political opponents, while portraying political opponents to be in collusion with the “outsider”. This allowed him a conducive pitch to roll out, pursue and strengthen his commitment to placing the social and political interests of the majority on top, the white Americans to be precise. In a frenzied environment where politicisation of national security issues outweighs other issues including the question of survival of democracy, culminating in an animating personality cult, the idea of a woman in charge may not click with lower-income groups without a college degree, who are the zealous flag-bearers for Trump.

Jake Vincent from New York admits that there is an undercurrent of misogyny, which, along with the blighted economy and fear-mongering on border security, is the reason why Trumpism continues to resonate at a time when Trump’s felony conviction should have rendered him unfit to run in the court of public opinion. He describes the US as a “business enterprise” and argues that “Trump, despite his many flaws of character, is an efficient businessman. He is the best bet for the US at a time when many people are losing faith in its success story.” Vincent had been an operational trainee course instructor in the US Navy in California. He jeers at the thought of a Harris presidency. “She showed no character as vice president; she will be a rubber stamp to the military-industrial complex which runs this country,” he said.

Worryingly for Harris, Vincent’s views are upheld by an increasing number of male black voters under 50. Trump registered an uptick in approval, at 21 per cent, among young black men, according to a recent study by Howard University. Even Muslim immigrants like Zain, a taxi-driver from Pakistan this reporter spoke to at New York’s 5th Avenue, said Trump evoked more confidence because “he speaks of America first, and he can do something for the lower income groups”.

Trump talks of creating an environment to “steal” manufacturing jobs that have moved overseas. To this end, he has pledged to lower the corporate tax rate from 21 per cent to 15 per cent for “those who make their product in the USA”.

Despite Harris underlining the urgency to safeguard democracy from Trump’s authoritarian ways, there is apprehension that the anger against inflation might affect her campaign. A recent research from Empower, a financial planning enterprise, outlined: “Some 78 per cent [Americans] are using more of their budget on essential items, and 27 per cent have hit a pricing limit, and aren’t willing to pay anything more for many grocery staples, or will cut the items from their shopping lists.”

Trump is exploiting that faultline by circulating a notion that Harris plans to tilt the US to the left. “Kamala went full communist… she wants to destroy our country,” he said at a public meeting in Wilkes-Barre township in Pennsylvania in August. He has since repeated the charges, often deriding her opponent as “comrade Kamala”.

Harris’s campaign managers have clarified that she has moved away from several of her left-leaning stances from her 2020 presidential run, such as her interest in a single-payer health insurance system and a ban on fracking.

Israel’s intensifying conflict with Gaza could also be a problem for Harris as it alienates Arab Americans. The Biden presidency’s steadfast support for Israel despite the mounting civilian casualty in Gaza has disillusioned the Muslim populace. On September 19, the Uncommitted National Movement announced that it will not endorse Kamala Harris for president, as she did not oblige the movement’s request that she discuss a ceasefire in Gaza. Kaitlan Collins, a renowned broadcast journalist, told this reporter that “though Harris expresses concerns about Gaza, people know her policies are the same as Biden’s. They don’t want to hear the argument that she is better than Trump.” Collins is afraid that Harris might lose Michigan if Arab-origin voters decide to sit at home.

That would complicate her path to the presidency. Pennsylvania is another decisive swing state. In 2020, Biden won it by a mere 80,000 votes, despite his extensive childhood connection to the state. If Trump reclaims Pennsylvania, Harris will have to depend on North Carolina and Georgia, which are right-leaning.

Trump has prioritised Pennsylvania and Georgia. And he is spending $17 million in North Carolina. According to a Wall Street Journal opinion poll released on October 11, Harris and Trump are neck and neck in the seven battleground states. The poll showed Harris with marginal 2 per cent leads in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, while Trump was up by six points in Nevada and one in Pennsylvania. The two are tied in North Carolina and Wisconsin.

However, Trump’s anti-abortion stand has allowed Harris to aim at building a coalition of women voters. In 2022, three supreme court justices whom Trump nominated during his presidency were part of a majority that overturned Roe v. Wade, the ruling that had protected abortion rights nationally for nearly half a century. The new decision allows individual states to restrict or permit abortions as they see fit. Harris has pledged that she would support the Congress to pass a federal law protecting abortion rights.

David Schultz, a distinguished professor at Hamline University in Minnesota, said economy, immigration and abortion are the three big issues that people in the US would use to decide their vote. He emphasised that “not everyone ranks them in that order”. But if they did, it would not be easy to write an epitaph on Trumpism.

author-and-donald-trumps-nephew-fred-c-trump-iii-interview

Sat Oct 05 15:03:53 IST 2024

Interview/ Fred C. Trump III, author and Donald Trump’s nephew

In his book, All in the Family, Fred C. Trump III, reminisces about the night when Donald Trump decided to run for president for the first time. It was the 2011 annual White House correspondents’ dinner and president Barack Obama, who was clearly miffed about Trump’s repeated questions about his place of birth and his eligibility to be president, was in the mood to take him down. As Obama brutally trolled Trump, the room erupted with laughter. But Fred remembers that it made his uncle really angry. “That is what made him run for president. I could feel it in my bones,” writes Fred. “Obama just made a big, badass mistake.” In an exclusive interview with THE WEEK, Fred says Obama woke up the sleeping giant that night. As Trump continues to dominate American politics, taking over the Republican Party and running for a third time to become president, Fred says he plans to vote for Kamala Harris and gives his reasons. Edited excerpts from the interview:

In your book, you have written about one of the most shocking exchanges you had with your uncle, Donald Trump, which involves your son, William. Trump told you that you should just let William, who suffers from a major disability, die. But he also supported you financially for taking care of William.

Yeah, it's a more complicated story than that. When William was born in 1999, a day after we buried my grandfather, he started having intense seizures, hundreds of seizures a day. He was at Mount Sinai Hospital in Manhattan, literally walking distance from either of my aunts or uncles at the time, Trump included. No one came to visit William. William subsequently went to two other hospitals for a total of seven weeks before he finally came home on very intense seizure medications. About a week after that, I received a letter from Trump’s attorney saying that my sister Mary and I were taken out of my grandfather's will. My grandfather's original will had cut it into five portions for his five children. My father unfortunately passed away in 1981. Trump was in very bad financial situation back then. His companies were bankrupt. It was so embarrassing to him that he was put on an allowance by the banks. So, he hatched this scheme to take Mary and me out of my grandfather's will. When this all was happening, my grandfather had dementia. So, Trump took advantage of his father at that time. We settled the case a year or so after. I don't want to make this a William story, although he has given me the opportunity to advocate on behalf of people with intellectual and developmental disabilities. William's wheelchair bound. He's 25 years old now. He needs assistance with everything he does, but he is the most courageous and inspirational person I know.

[Trump has] no empathy. He doesn't want to be seen around people like my son, who are disabled, or members of the military who have been injured or killed. He feels he is above all else. And those who don't measure up to his standards are deemed losers, somebody he just does not care about or want anything to do with.... That is why I am voting for and will campaign for Kamala Harris. I have already been on several Zoom calls with a group, Disabled Americans for Harris. If you look at Project 2025 (a controversial, 900-page policy wish-list for the next Republican president), the disabled community and the minority communities will be pushed aside. [In Kamala, you will have] the first black woman president, the first president of Indian heritage, and that's great. And it drives him absolutely nuts that is who he is running against. She is terrific. I understand the enthusiasm for Kamala, and that is why I am supporting her.

This must be one of the craziest elections in the history of the United States. A sitting president got replaced on the ticket by his vice president, who did not win even a single primary. There were two assassination attempts against Trump, and his debate performances have swung between two extremes. And the race looks really tight.

Oh, it is very tight. And the debate [with Harris] was a complete embarrassment for Trump. But debates don't choose presidents. It was Kamala's opportunity to get to know millions of people because she literally has not had that great opportunity being a vice president. We all know the jokes about the vice president in America. She is coming on strong. But this is a very, very close race and it could go down either way.

The Trump campaign appears chaotic, while Harris is running an efficient campaign. She also has a significant fundraising advantage. So, why is the race still a tight one?

Trump has a base that is going nowhere. I don't know why some people really follow him. But he has this incredible ability to make people forget. People forget how the fourth year of Trump's term was, when hundreds of thousands of people were dying because of his negligence on Covid. I watched an interview the other day. Trump was saying inflation and gas prices were the lowest [under him]. It [remained low] because people couldn't go anywhere. People just love to feel good about the things he says. It makes them feel great about themselves. Unfortunately, that's at the expense of other people who he consistently demeans. He calls Kamala stupid. That's the way he operates. People just buy into it. The Harris campaign needs to pick off the margins, the independent voters.

Will Trump concede if he loses narrowly in November? We all remember the Capitol riots of January 6, 2021.

He will not give in. Already, local election boards in certain states are saying that if Trump loses, they are not going to certify the election. And it will be another round of the judicial process. It went the right way in 2020. It's going to be bad [this time]. I hope no violence occurs because there's no place—I say this after the attempted assassination attempts against Trump—for violence in our country. It will be easier in the future if there's no MAGA (Make America Great Again) wing of the Republican Party.

How do you look at the future of the Republican Party?

The Republican Party has to wash itself off this very venal wing (MAGA) that has formed over the past eight years. I hate MAGA because it insinuates that this country isn't great. This is a great country. We have our faults. There is no doubt about it. But that's why a potential future president Kamala Harris will help work on those, as did Joe Biden, who deserves kudos for the work he did.

How would you assess Biden’s record as president?

Biden was coming in through the turmoil of those months after the 2020 election. [The only negative thing I would say about him is that] he gave a pass to the Republican Party and to Trump. He didn't explain why the economy was in such a bad shape. And he's taken the hit for it. Inflation had been way too high. But the reason for that was that the world had shut down. The Biden administration did not explain that well enough. Biden had to heal this country. And he did that. I believe in policy over politics all the time, but there is a political side to everything. Biden underestimated the need to take on the MAGA crew.

What about immigration? The entire immigration policy collapsed during the Biden administration.

A lot of it is messaging. Think of how many jobs Biden has created. But a lot of people feel uneasy about the economy as inflation affects pretty much everybody. But 10 million people had lost their jobs during Covid. They have been rehired, and the economy is technically in good shape. It's just that people are not feeling it. I hope Kamala will be able to give that sense of positivity to what is happening and what will continue to happen under her administration.

Why do you think Trump is fascinated by strongmen like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un? During the debate, he cited praise from Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary, who is also known for his dictatorial style.

Trump has always wanted to be the tough guy. I don't know if he's ever been in a fight in his life. He's been coddled his entire life. We both grew up in Queens, New York, which is kind of a rough place. Believe me, I got into my fair share of scrapes back in the day. But I don't think Trump ever did. His father was a very tough guy. And Trump has always had that in him. It is impossible for Trump to admit mistakes, or that he is weak in any way. So he looks towards people like Putin and Kim Jong-un and Orban. That's what he is, and he's never going to change.

Your book speaks about the Trump family history of dementia. And in one of your interviews, you mentioned that Trump, too, has shown symptoms.

I am not a physician, but I have had two grandparents who had dementia. Trump's first cousin John [Walters] had dementia. I know what it looks like. Trump forgets or misnames people all the time. I have definitely seen a decline in Trump. He just looks tired. But I get it. I am one of the few people alive who knows him from the time he was a young guy. I know how hard he works.... It is starting to affect the way he talks and the way he acts.

You mentioned in your book that there was an incident when Trump used a racial slur after someone damaged the roof of his favourite car. Is he really a racist?

I was there. I remember it exactly. He used the N-word twice, but what's really troubling to me is that he continues to do it. He didn't actually know who slashed the roof of his car. He just assumed it was black people. If you go forward in the book, I tell a story very close to the time of that incident when three young black kids about my age stole my bike. The police called and they found one of the kids that took it. My mom asked Trump to go to the police station with me. He was adamant about having this kid thrown in jail. I can't have a kid my age, 10 years old, thrown in jail for doing something stupid. Unfortunately, Trump wasn't. But then, and I don't know how much you all know about the Central Park Five, but it was a group of young black men who were arrested for allegedly raping a jogger in Central Park. Trump took out a full page ad, I believe it was in the New York Times, basically saying that these guys should die. Sounds familiar? Now, is he a racist? I can't say if he's a racist, but the people he associates with, the neo-Nazis, like this guy Mark Robinson who is running for governor in North Carolina, say terribly racist things. And Trump supports him. In fact, Trump almost created this guy. He will use that for his endgame, which is victory.

Coming back to this election, how do you compare the two vice presidential candidates, J.D. Vance and Tim Walz?

I think Governor Walz is a genuine kind of guy, a Midwestern guy. My mom came from Kalamazoo, Michigan, so I know that area of the world pretty well. J.D. Vance is basically a sycophant. He'll say whatever it takes to please Trump. And look, I know Walz, too, wants to win. But to compare the two, I think it's a real stretch. I could hang out with Governor Walz. With Vance, I'm not so sure. And what Vance is doing right now in Springfield, Ohio, with the Haitian community, is just disgusting. Many of my son William's aides are Haitian Americans. And they are decent, hardworking people who have helped make my son, the young man that he is today. So if Trump or Vance goes to Springfield, Ohio, I'm going to go, too. And I'm going to speak on behalf of that wonderful community who are in this country legally.

If I ask you to give me, say, three positive things about Trump, what would those be?

He taught me how to play golf. He can be charming, there's no doubt about it. I think he genuinely loves his family. So I'll give him that.

I remember reading in your book that you got front row seats for Trump’s inauguration in 2017. You were treated very well. So that kind of a bond still exists between you and Donald Trump.

We went through a very contentious lawsuit in 2000, and he came back to me and we buried the hatchet. I don't know if he'll be able to do the same again. I have my advocacy work. If he becomes president again, it would be hypocritical of me not to reach out to him.

ALL IN THE FAMILY: THE TRUMPS AND HOW WE GOT THIS WAY

By Fred C. Trump III

Published by Simon & Schuster UK

Pages 352; price Rs899

anura-kumara-dissanayake-sri-lanka-marxist-leader-president

Sat Sep 28 11:51:24 IST 2024

Two weeks before the presidential election in Sri Lanka, members of the island nation’s business community gathered at the Monarch Imperial hotel in Colombo to listen to Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who was the surprise frontrunner. The businessmen were probably concerned about a Marxist leader taking over as president. Anura spoke for about an hour, trying to assuage their concerns and explaining his plans for the economy.

As he was leaving, this correspondent tried to ask him a few questions. “We will win,” he said. But he was in no mood to talk further. “Please share your contact number. I will call you.” He kept his word.

A fortnight later, when the votes were counted, Anura won a clear mandate, beating key challengers like Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya and Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party. He was sworn in on September 23.

Sri Lanka’s new generation voters expect Anura to combine his hardline Marxist principles with pragmatic reforms. “The people wanted a change in the political and the economic systems. We want to make that wish a reality,” said Anil Jayantha, a prominent member of Anura’s political coalition. “Our leader has the education, competence, skills and vision. All these years, the people’s mandate was used to serve private interests and the elites. He will use it to uphold public interest.”

Anura leads the National People’s Power (NPP), a coalition of leftist political parties and socialist groups. He also heads the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the leading party in the coalition. Born on November 24, 1968, in Anuradhapura district to a daily-wage worker and a homemaker, Anura was a rebel during his student days. The murder of his first cousin, a JVP member, and the torching of his house after the JVP insurrection in the late 1980s, furthered his resolve to become active in politics. He was appointed to the central working committee of the JVP in 1995, and three years later, he made it to the party’s political bureau. When Chandrika Kumaratunga’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party formed the government in the early 2000s, he was part of it as agriculture minister.

However, it is not going to be an easy road for Anura as president, as the people impatiently wait for action against corruption and a solution to the economic mess. He was forthcoming in his first social media message after taking charge. “I’m not a magician.... I have abilities and shortcomings. My first task is to make use of people’s talents and know-how and make better decisions to lead this country,” he said.

There is also a sense of uncertainty as the JVP is completely inexperienced in governance and administration. “His coalition has minimal experience running a complicated state like Sri Lanka. They will also struggle to implement their many promises in a challenging economic environment and may struggle to achieve a majority in the parliament. This election is sure to raise eyebrows in many foreign capitals,” tweeted Erik Solheim, former Norwegian peace ambassador to Sri Lanka, who was a key mediator between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE.

The JVP’s troubled past and its militant character continue to haunt many people. “They might be more pragmatic and have a mainstream approach now. But within their ranks and their regimented culture, there is no democracy,” said a senior member of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, the political party of the Rajapaksas.

Anura’s work will be hampered if the JVP and the NPP fail to win enough seats to run the parliament. On September 24, he dissolved the 225-member house in which his coalition had just four MPs, including himself. Fresh elections will be held on November 14, almost a year ahead of schedule, and the new session will start on November 21. Anura appointed JVP MP and former academic Harini Amarasuriya as the new prime minister, who would share ministerial responsibilities with two other JVP parliament members.

The JVP will face a major challenge if Premadasa’s SJB and Wickremesinghe’s UNP join hands. Sources say Wickremesinghe has decided not to contest the parliament elections and would act as an adviser to the party, while UNP deputy leader Ruwan Wijewardene wants the opposition parties to form a grand alliance against the NPP.

On the foreign policy front, Anura’s victory could alter the existing geopolitical realities in the region, as he is considered close to China. His idea of renegotiating the IMF economic programme and his threat about cancelling the Adani Group’s wind power project point towards a radical reorientation of the existing policies.

From its inception, the JVP has been anti-India. Its insurrection in the late 1980s came against the backdrop of the possibility of Tamil autonomy in the Northern and Eastern Provinces and the presence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force. The party once denounced hill country Tamils as a “fifth column instrument of Indian expansionism”. Anura has been opposed to Sri Lanka’s Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with India, which opened up possibilities for greater trade and investment between the two countries. He has also opposed all attempts to return the Katchatheevu island to India.

However, in his exclusive interview with THE WEEK ahead of the election, Anura was positive about engaging with India. “Our approach to India will reflect its close proximity and significant role in geopolitics. We will ensure that our sea, land and air space are not used in ways that threaten India,” he said. “We are committed to maintaining our sovereignty and will not become subordinate to any power in this geopolitical race.”

indian-americans-coming-together-under-the-democratic-umbrella-could-get-harris-over-the-line-in-key-battlegrounds

Mon Sep 23 12:32:02 IST 2024

Just as most watchers of American politics started thinking there cannot be any more twists this election season came reports about a second assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump. The Republican candidate was at a golf course in Florida on September 15 when a lone gunman was seen about 500 metres from him. The would-be shooter fled after the Secret Service opened fire, but was soon arrested.

Trump later said he was being targeted repeatedly because of “rhetoric” against him by President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate. The incident, five days after the Harris-Trump debate in Philadelphia, could give a lift to Trump, whose debate performance was uninspiring.

It was clear to the 65 million people who tuned in that Trump was unprepared, while Harris had facts at her fingertips. He glowered, and was always belittling his opponent. At times, Harris was in full prosecutor mode, and at other times, when Trump’s pronouncements were over the top, she looked bemused, as if her rival were a child.

Most media handed the winner’s title to Harris, though with a challenging neck-and-neck race in many swing states and Trump’s Teflon personality, anything is possible in the elections.

Among the Indian-American community, Harris holds sway with the majority. This is especially true with younger voters and is the result of a well-planned canvassing process, from phone banks to social media to word of mouth. At the heart of it all is the matter of representation and the wave of recognition which sweeps over many Indian-Americans when they look at Harris―she is one of them.

Neha Dewan, co-national director of South Asians for Harris, recalls that when she showed a photo of Harris to her two daughters, aged five and two, they immediately piped up: “She looks like mommy!” Immigrants who were children when they came to the US and are now parents are seeing the possibility of a president who looks like them. They have realised the strength of numbers and many are unifying with other immigrants under the Democratic umbrella.

The focus is on swing states Georgia and North Carolina, where Harris has narrowed the gap with Trump. Efforts include targeting the youth and women. The importance of down-ballot candidates, who influence decisions on key issues like gun control at the state level, is emphasised.

According to the Indiaspora Impact Report, recently released in conjunction with the Boston Consulting Group, Indian-Americans comprise about 1 per cent of the voters and show increasing influence in swing states, with potential to shape outcomes in close contests. The demographic trend in recent years shows a significant rise in the number of Indian-American voters. This voter base is actively participating in the electoral process and many in the community contribute significantly to political campaigns and are involved in policy advocacy, focusing on areas like immigration reform, civil rights and bilateral relations between the US and India.

Although Indian-Americans are traditionally Democrats, some support the Republican Party, too, for its stance on taxes and immigration. The diversity of the diaspora was demonstrated by the prominence of two contenders in the 2024 Republican primary (Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy).

While representation is important to immigrant voters, it is rare that you have Indian connections on both sides―this year could end with an Indian-American president or an Indian-American second lady, in Usha Vance. “It’s an incredible happenstance that two women of Indian origin feature on either side of the aisle, although in roles that are not comparable,” says Sanjeev Joshipura, executive director of Indiaspora. “That said, it’s apparent that this situation is no fluke. Our community’s contributions in the US public service arena are rising.” As per the Indiaspora report, over 150 officials of Indian origin hold senior positions in the current administration’s executive branch―a growth of 150 per cent in 10 years.

As Joshipura points out, apart from the two serious presidential candidates on the Republican side, on the Democratic side, five members of Congress are of Indian background, and there is a good chance that the November elections will yield one or two more. “I’ve witnessed a tremendous surge of excitement among our community in reaction to the news about Kamala Harris running for president, and to a lesser but perceptible extent, the potential for Usha Vance becoming second lady,” he says.

Surveys continue to show 70 to 80 per cent of Indian-Americans voting Democratic, but the steadily increasing political engagement and financial clout of the diaspora in the US incentivises both parties to take the community seriously. There are wealthy Indians in tech and finance who are fiscal conservatives and support the Republican Party.

Trump has his Indian-American supporters, too. A prominent one being Dr Sampat Shivangi, who appreciates the former’s pro-India and pro-Hindu stance. Shivangi has been an official Republican delegate six times, from the time of George W. Bush, and has supported Trump in all three of his runs for president. Shivangi was a Democrat, but became a Republican during the Bush years because of the president’s support for India’s nuclear proliferation treaty and pro-India stance. He is a founding member of the Republican Indian Council and the Republican Indian National Council. Over the past three decades, he has lobbied for several bills on behalf of India. He believes that Harris does not see herself as Indian and largely identifies as black―perhaps as that is the larger voting bloc.

Dr Shobha Agarwal, a cardiologist who is the president of the Georgia chapter of the American Hindu Coalition, feels that there is a shift in the community towards the Republican Party because of issues like border security and family values. She also mentions anti-Hindu resolutions and the need for better representation for Hindus in politics and for them to be engaged and to speak up: “If you’re not at the table, you end up on the menu.”

“My job in Georgia has been to educate Indian-Americans because the registration is in dismal numbers in our community, and we are 1,73,000 Americans in the state of Georgia,” she says. “We want to change that. We invited the Georgia state president [of the Republican Party]―he was so down to earth and approachable and blended in with our community.”

Out in Georgia, the Democrats are also hard at work. Sonjui Kumar, an attorney, is the national board chair for South Asians for Harris which in the 2020 cycle was known as South Asians for Biden. She says: “I’m very active in Georgia and we’re really focused on both Georgia and North Carolina. These are two states which were not considered swing states a month ago. So, this has been a quick calibration on our part, as both these states came back into play after President Biden withdrew.”

In 2020, Biden won Georgia with a small margin and North Carolina went for Trump. “In the 2024 cycle, polling was showing a 13-point gap between Trump and Harris in Georgia,” says Kumar. “That is now a dead heat. So, in one month, Harris took away the Trump advantage in Georgia.”

Kumar believes this change is because of the youth and gender vote and also Harris being the candidate. “I think with Biden, as much love and gratitude as the party had for him, it was hard for us to get people engaged,” she says. “And you know, the 18 to 25 voter is like almost too young to even remember Joe Biden.”

With the clock ticking, it is especially important to get the Indian-American voters galvanised in the swing states and to support down-ballot candidates like Ashwin Ramaswami, who is running in Johns Creek, north of Atlanta, which has a large Indian population. The 24-year-old is the first Indian-American Gen Z candidate to run for the Georgia state senate.

As Kumar notes, nothing has changed after the debate―things have become more intense in the key battleground states―including Michigan and Pennsylvania―where south Asian voters can be the decisive margin of victory for Harris and other Democrats down the ballot.

As in everything else in life, there is also the inevitable WhatsApp chat group―the Desi President group―to bring Indian-Americans together in this most important election in the United States.

Lavina Melwani is a New York-based writer for several international publications and blogs at Lassi with Lavina.

modi-zelensky-meeting-key-highlights

Sat Aug 31 11:50:20 IST 2024

Until there is a just peace, Ukraine and India shall have to work together. This can be the shortest summary of the shortest visit to Kyiv by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 23. There is no peace in sight. Russia made 200 missile and drone strikes August 25 and 26, and Ukraine’s Kursk campaign goes on unabated, its Palyanytsia drones striking 900km inside Russian territory.

The historic visit, the first visit by any prime minister, coincided with the Day of the Ukrainian Flag on the eve of the 33rd Independence Day of Ukraine, the underlying message being of support to the sovereignty of Ukraine, something that Russia is trying to destroy.

Loaded with euphoria of desis and Ukrainian India lovers, the visit had created an ambience of expectations long before it took place. Questions such as these were at the top: Will India mediate? Will it have an out-of-the-box solution to stop a war that has lasted more than 915 days?

Modi’s visit to Moscow in July, and the contrasting optics with President Vladimir Putin and the simultaneous missile strikes of a children’s hospital had caused embarrassment sufficient enough to announce a visit to Ukraine.

Optics matter in any visit, even if they bely the nuances of protocol, which only professionals can fathom for interpreting the real essence. In this sense, the optics were pre-arranged. Well-dressed Indians from all Ukrainian cities flocked to the Hyatt Regency Hotel to greet Modi, who appeared at 8 o’clock. The night before was not quiet in Kyiv; till 1:30am there were sirens of ballistic missile threats.

Modi greeted leaders of the diaspora, without any formal discussion with them unlike in Moscow or in Warsaw, and then paid homage at the Gandhi statue at the Botanical Gardens. He had another meet-and-greet while leaving Ukraine, just walking in the lobby and waving goodbye to those present. The diaspora had yearned for more and could have shared their stories from the ground. Such a meeting would have been a healing touch for the Indians here, who keep the dignity of India and the tricolour high even when New Delhi’s policies make them vulnerable to criticism.

Modi had short interactions with children learning Hindi at the Kyiv Oriental Languages Gymnasium, as well as with indologists and academicians. With President Volodymyr Zelensky, he visited an exhibition dedicated to the children killed in the war. It was a poignant moment.

The major part of the visit was in the Mariinsky palace, where, in the White Hall, Modi wrote in the guest book: “On behalf of 1.4 billion people of India, I pray for peace, progress and prosperity for the friendly people of Ukraine.” Then started the negotiations that were planned for half an hour but lasted for more than two hours.

Four memorandums of understanding were signed: on humanitarian aid for community development; on agricultural products; on drugs and control over narcotics; and on cultural cooperation. In each of them, there are competitive advantages to both sides. It is these win-win options that enable Ukraine and India to walk hand in hand and be equal partners. India and Ukraine made concrete practical steps towards lifting up the political relations. These can perhaps take their relations to a new level.

What was left out was the heavy issues of nuclear security and Zelensky’s ten-point peace plan. The two sides need to crystallise their positions. Issues of ambiguity are India’s purchase of Russian oil, India’s relations with Putin’s regime and India’s role in the peace negotiation process. The presence of the national security adviser and the external affairs minister in the Indian team indicated that discussion of these issues must have been held without any final commitments and obligations. So, precisely these issues were raised by Indian journalists at the press meet by President Zelensky at the end of the visit.

Zelensky was frank, answering in Ukrainian, sometimes in English. He said India should not enable Russia in any way and could do more to support Ukraine. He explained the real intent of Russia to wage the war and the rationale of Ukraine’s Kursk operation, without going into details.

He said: “I want to know more about India. To know the country you need to know its peoples. I need to talk to Indians and learn more.” There is no doubt that people to people connections among our nations are the focus of both Ukraine and India. Zelensky understands that perfectly.

Media and expert feedback on Modi’s visit were extraordinarily warm, almost all showing a stark break from the usual stance on India, ranging from hesitant and vague to suspicious and negative. This by itself is a victory, albeit small, for Indian diplomacy in its ropewalk between Russia and Ukraine.

Therefore, until Zelensky visits India, as invited by Modi, there is a lot of work to do for both the sides to understand each other better.

The author, formerly with the UN, is associate professor of international relations at the Kyiv Mohyla Academy.

pm-modi-about-india-hosting-the-peace-summit-russia-ukraine-conflict-mridula-ghosh-kyiv

Sat Aug 31 11:47:59 IST 2024

IT WAS WHILE answering questions from THE WEEK at the press meet that Zelensky said he had told Modi about India hosting a peace summit.

I asked him: During your discussions (with Modi) did you touch upon nuclear security? What part of your 10-point peace plan have you discussed? Will there be a future peace summit? Have you discussed whether Russia will participate in that summit? Could you comment on the possible involvement of India in the release of children abducted by Russia? Any condemnation of Russia’s actions forcing or tricking Indian citizens into participating in the war?

Zelensky: I will start with the last question. Prime Minister Modi said he condemns that and will ensure that Indian citizens do not fight for the Russian army. I perfectly understand him. I just can’t understand how you could enrol foreign citizens. Forcibly or not, I don’t know. How could it happen otherwise? It is indeed bad.

I truly believe that the second peace summit has to take place. It would be good to hold it in one of the global south countries. We are very open on it. There are countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar or Türkiye or even Switzerland, but that is a different direction. We are currently talking to these countries about hosting the second peace summit.

I fully support, and I told this to Prime Minister Modi, if we could have the global peace summit in India. It’s a big country. It’s a great democracy, the largest one. But I want to be frank. This is related not only to India, but to any state which will have a positive attitude to host the second peace summit. But we won’t be able to conduct a peace summit in a country which until now has not joined the communique of the last peace summit. I guess you understand this. Nobody is exerting any pressure, but that is logical.

We have discussed all matters related to the communique, including issues of security. Yesterday, there was an online meeting on energy. There was a big elaboration meeting after the first summit.

The teams have started to work on nuclear security… By November we want to have the whole plan on all the points and that is why we wanted the countries to join that cause. If they want to have additional points or clauses or they disagree with something, then we may discuss them at the level of NSAs through working level meeting. Let them do their work and we are ready to work with you on the matter. Who knows, maybe we will. Energy is something we’ve discussed and this includes nuclear energy.

Frankly, we didn’t have enough time to have a detailed conversation on nuclear security, even though we raised all three questions just as we dealt with food security as well as children.

Regarding children, there are some countries willing to help in this matter, and you know the number of countries helping in this will never be enough and we would be happy if India would join that part of the formula, the return of the children that is the humanitarian aspect.

From the standpoint of the neutrality of your status, I would like to underline that none of the points in the peace plan or those discussed at the summit has anything to do with weapons or armaments. So, I think India can choose from these points and join the respective initiatives, proposing its own vision and additional ideas. We are prepared for an open and honest dialogue.

pm-modi-ukraine-visit-india-s-strategic-goals

Sat Aug 31 11:45:20 IST 2024

IN DIPLOMACY, timing is key. India’s moment could be here and now.

Back in Delhi from his trip to Ukraine on August 23, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had two important telephone conversations. On August 26, he spoke with US President Joe Biden, and the next day, it was Russian President Vladimir Putin who was on the other end of the phone. In both exchanges, the key topic would have been Ukraine.

India shares a ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership’ with Russia and a ‘Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership’ with the US. Modi was in Moscow in July for the 22nd India-Russia annual summit. While India-Russia ties have a long history, relationship with the US has been a chequered one, although it has been considerably warm in recent years, particularly after China’s dramatic rise as a global power. Just a day before Modi made his trip to Kyiv, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh landed in the US for a four-day visit.

In the joint statement after his Ukraine visit, Modi “reiterated India’s willingness to contribute in all possible ways to facilitate an early return of peace”. So is India leveraging its ties with Russia and the west to position itself as a mediator?

D.B. Venkatesh Varma, former Indian ambassador to Russia, said India’s capability to broker peace in Ukraine was quite low because of the nature of the conflict. “It is not amenable to mediation at this point of time. Both sides believe they can win. So why will they compromise? Military exhaustion has to set in, and that has not yet happened.”

Experts, however, believe that Modi’s visit to Kyiv was keenly watched globally and that it enhanced India’s prestige. “One-to-one meetings with both Putin and Zelensky within a month and a half underline India’s acceptability to both warring sides,” said former diplomat R. Dayakar. “But the road ahead is not an easy one as there is no meeting ground between Russia and Ukraine. So there is perhaps more than meets the eye in Modi’s meeting. We will have to let things unfold.”

The Ukraine visit has thrown open the question whether India has effected a subtle shift in its strategic posture by aligning more closely with the west. Historically, India has been known for its pro-Russia stance on global issues. For instance, although India attended the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland on June 15 and 16, it refrained from signing the joint communique as the Russian point of view was missing. Russia was not invited to the summit.

Modi visited Moscow on July 8, the same day that a Russian missile devastated a children’s hospital in Kyiv. And it took place just a day before the US hosted leaders of the 32 NATO countries and the leaders of the European Union, Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea to discuss the Ukraine crisis. It, however, did not stop Modi from embracing Putin warmly, giving the beleaguered Russian leader a major public relations victory. But India took note of the fact that it was kept out of the Ukraine conclave held in Washington, DC.

The US also expressed disappointment about Modi’s Moscow visit, but India said it was only expressing its freedom of choice. “In a multipolar world, all countries have a freedom of choice. It is essential for everybody to be mindful of and appreciate such realities,” said Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for the ministry of external affairs. By invoking its “freedom of choice” and “strategic autonomy”, India has been trying hard to maintain cordial ties with Russia and to ensure that the western opprobrium did not push Moscow further into the Chinese orbit.

Said Varma, “The Ukraine situation is in a flux, so we have to be engaged with both sides. It is good that the prime minister is engaging with both sides, despite Ukraine being a complicated issue. It is a courageous step in Indian diplomacy. And one must remember that not all diplomatic efforts give instantaneous results.”

The Indian position on the conflict in Ukraine has several aspects. India believes that its ties with Russia and Ukraine are not ‘zero-sum games’ and wants to chart a substantive and independent path with both countries. Second, India still believes that diplomacy and dialogue can resolve the conflict and can lead to enduring peace. Third, as Modi has made clear, a lasting solution to the conflict cannot be found on the battlefield.

However, with no end to the Ukraine crisis in sight, India could be trying to balance its ties with Russia and the west and it could seriously challenge Indian diplomacy. As the US defence establishment gets closer to India, more questions will be asked about its ties with Russia. The Rajnath visit to the US has yielded a key pact, the Security of Supplies Arrangement (SOSA), which encourages the defence industrial ecosystems of both countries to work together. It also enhances supply chain resilience. It follows a slew of foundational agreements already in place between the two nations that seek to integrate military services, assets and technologies. These include the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (2016), the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (2018) and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (2020).

At the same time, India has benefited immensely by buying discounted Russian oil since the Ukraine conflict started in February 2022. Moscow now accounts for 42 per cent of India’s total crude oil imports, compared with just 2 per cent before the start of the conflict.

On the military front, too, dependence on Russia cannot be overlooked as 65 per cent of the Indian arsenal is of Russian origin. Yet, India has been moving away from Russia on defence supplies by roping in more sources like the US, France and Israel and also by adhering to the ‘Atmanirbharta’ (self-reliance) policy. Interestingly, no new weapon deals were inked during Modi’s Moscow visit, quite a rarity in bilateral ties. But Modi did reiterate the all-weather nature of India-Russia ties: “The temperature sometimes falls below zero in Russia but the temperature is always above zero in India-Russia relations,” he said. “Russia remains India’s trusted friend in any weather.”

assassination-attempt-eases-trump-s-path-to-the-white-house

Sat Jul 20 11:49:16 IST 2024

On July 14, the front pages of American newspapers splashed a riveting photograph: a combative Donald Trump, with blood running down from his right ear, pumping his fist in defiance after an assassin’s bullet nearly killed him. The American flag forming the backdrop of the former president’s bloodied face gave the moment an added context. The contrast with President Joe Biden’s debate debacle on June 27―the world saw on live television a frail, diminished and barely coherent candidate―could not have been starker.

Even Trump’s critics acknowledged his presence of mind, which helped turn a crisis into an opportunity. Despite the possibility of death at the hands of a lone gunman who fired at him during a campaign event at Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, Trump displayed admirable political instincts and situational awareness by getting back in charge seconds after an initial loss of composure. Trump knew the world was watching and he made sure that the image of his feisty response, which even the perennially unfriendly New York Times called “an incarnation of defiance”, would be what the voters will remember about the fateful evening. The shooter, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, was killed by a Secret Service sniper. A voluntary firefighter who tried to shield his family, too, was killed in the attack.

“Without a doubt, the attempted assassination helps Trump and further diminishes Biden. It sets up a sharp contrast for many voters between a courageous and defiant challenger and a weak and indecisive incumbent,” said Sadanand Dhume, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute based in Washington, DC. Republican strategists will continue to drive home the point that while Trump beat back a semiautomatic rifle, Biden finds it hard to take even a flight of stairs. The president now enters Air Force One through the rear using the shorter stairs there, and avoids the 18-foot climb at the front.

Clearly, the shooting and Trump’s response could determine the voting preferences of at least a section of the independent and undecided voters. “Such incidents can make people more concerned about safety. Voters could start caring more about national security and law enforcement,” said Venugopal Gopalakrishna-Remani, who teaches at the University of Texas at Tyler. “It could influence their voting choices.” Even a marginal pro-Trump swing in key battlegrounds such as Pennsylvania, where the shooting took place, could have disastrous consequences for Biden. The latest New York Times opinion poll from the Keystone State (taken after the presidential debate, but before the shooting) gives Trump a 4 per cent advantage over Biden (48 per cent to 44 per cent). In 2020, Biden won the state’s 20 electoral votes by just 1.17 per cent.

The shooting may help Trump deflect criticism that he is a threat to democracy. It allows him to paint himself as a victim of extreme political rhetoric. Almost immediately after the shooting, the far right social media space was getting swamped with allegations that it was orchestrated by the ‘deep state’ or even the White House. Already, the Secret Service faces questions about security lapses during the July 13 rally. “If the Secret Service is shown to be guilty of flagrant mismanagement of the event, that could rebound against Biden,” said Donald Camp, adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC.

The attack has already taken away a powerful campaign tool for the Democrats as Trump allies point out that it is their candidate who is, in fact, the victim of extreme political rhetoric and vilification campaigns. And, nothing stops them from using the July 13 attack as a counter narrative to the January 6 Capitol Hill riots in 2021, when a mob of Trump supporters disrupted a joint session of the US Congress convened to certify the 2020 presidential election results.

The shooting has forced Democrats to recalibrate their attacks against Trump. As the Republicans take the moral high ground, the Democrats are being forced to put their campaign on hold temporarily as they work to cool the political temperature. “Much of the campaign against Trump has hinged on characterising him as a man of unscrupulousness and violence, a convicted felon, and a threat to democracy. But it will now become much harder to communicate these charges to the public―especially to swing voters,” said Mohamed Zeeshan, foreign affairs researcher and author based in Washington, DC. “You cannot foulmouth a man so easily after he has just escaped an assassination attempt. As Biden himself has said, they will have to lower the temperature.”

Speaking to Lester Holt of the NBC News on July 15, in his first interview after the Butler shooting, Biden expressed regret about some of his political rhetoric targeting Trump. He said it was a mistake to say that he wanted to put Trump in a bullseye―a comment he had made during a private call with Democratic donors a week before. “The shooting has definitely complicated the Democrats’ plan. The Biden campaign has already pulled down attack ads against Trump,” said Zeeshan. “It is unclear when or how they are going to be able to go back to attacking Trump.”

The argument that Trump represents a unique threat to democracy is unlikely to stop. But the rhetorical excesses used to make the point would be toned down, said Dhume. “Overblown comparisons of Trump with Hitler will become less acceptable to the American public,” he said.

Ironically, the attack has given Biden a respite from the growing calls from within his own party to step down. As the Democrats try to project an image of national unity, it is unlikely that they will push for an upheaval, at least for the next few days. Even a brief pause in the “remove Biden campaign” works in the president’s favour. “The longer he remains the presumptive nominee, the harder it will be to dislodge him,” said Camp. “With attention focused on the attack on Trump, it will be difficult for the Democratic dissidents to achieve their goal of replacing Biden, and it will be easier for him to run out the clock until the Democratic convention in August.” And that works perfectly for Trump as he prefers to battle it out with Biden, instead of having to reorganise his campaign if a new Democratic nominee comes up.

Finally, the shooting completes Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party. All prominent holdouts, including Nikki Haley, his final major challenger in the primaries, have fallen in line. The Republicans appear completely united behind Trump, while the Democrats are unable to even agree on their presidential candidate.

On July 15, Trump made a triumphant entry at the Republican national convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where he was formally anointed as the official presidential nominee of the party. Earlier in the day, a federal judge dismissed the case against him on mishandling sensitive government documents, giving his campaign a major relief.

Trump capped his perfect day by naming Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate. He picked the right moment to anoint his ideological successor who could take forward his brand of politics and his populist legacy. Trump’s surging popularity offered him the luxury to discard two other candidates on his shortlist―Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota―and choose Vance, despite him being a fierce critic in the past. The 39-year-old now operates with the zeal of the convert, and his selection is likely to energise the Trump base even further.

As vice presidential candidate, Vance leads the generational shift in the Republican Party. His wife, Usha Chilukuri, is the daughter of Indian immigrants, and his elevation could offer India yet another friendly voice in Washington. “Given Trump’s affinity for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, both men should be willing to overlook some of the two countries’ differing perspectives,” said Camp. “Trump would almost certainly downplay American concerns about India’s continued relationship with Russia. He would focus on confronting China and further cut commercial ties, benefiting India. New Delhi may not want to applaud Trump’s more extreme anti-China policies publicly, but they could well be privately pleased and rubbing their hands in glee.”

ADVANTAGE TRUMP

* Surviving the shooting augments his image as a fighter

* Improves standing among swing voters

* Hampers Democrats from vilifying him

* Helps neutralise his fascist image

* Aids takeover of Republican Party

* Helps him by keeping Biden in the race

* Worsens Biden’s image as a weak president

uk-prime-minister-keir-starmer-is-an-uncharismatic-leader-but-an-efficient-manager

Sat Jul 13 15:13:09 IST 2024

Sometimes, small changes herald big revolutions. The makeover of a black-and-white tiled Edwardian toilet proclaimed a momentous transformation in Britain. The urinal was removed and feminine hygiene products were placed in the private toilet of the incoming chancellor (finance minister) in Whitehall, Britain’s seat of power. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer appointed Rachel Reeves his chancellor, making her the first woman in the post since the office was created 800 years ago.

Starmer’s cabinet is as historic as his landslide with the Labour Party winning 412 seats in the 650-member parliament. Yet he struck a humble but significant note: “Public service is a privilege. Self-interest is yesterday’s politics.”

Starmer’s decisions are based on data and evidence. He appointed Patrick Vallance, nicknamed “Dr Doom” for his dire warnings during Covid, as his science minister. “Keir practises politics exactly the way he practises law,” said Lord Ken Macdonald, Starmer’s predecessor as director of public prosecution. “Process matters. There are no fireworks, but he won cases with quiet persuasiveness, command of facts and attention to detail.”

Starmer is interested in fixing problems, not winning TV ratings. Rising crime was a huge election issue. British prisons are so overcrowded that authorities are releasing prisoners who should be in jail. Starmer appointed James Timpson, the owner of a key-cutting and shoe-repairing firm, as the new prisons minister. Timpson’s firm employs former convicts since 2008, re-training them with skills useful for society.

Starmer inducted experienced Labour ministers from the past to run the education and business ministries. He also appointed many first-timers who grew up in poor households. Labour luminary Jonathan Ashworth said it was the most working-class cabinet of all time. Starmer himself grew up in a working class family. His father was an undemonstrative factory toolmaker, his mother a bedridden nurse and their home phone was once disconnected because of unpaid bills. But Starmer studied his way into Oxford.

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner grew up in government housing, left school with no qualifications and became pregnant at 16. Foreign Secretary David Lammy’s ancestors were slaves. Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson was bullied in school for being poor and was brought up on government benefit allowances by her single mother. Health Secretary Wes Streeting is the gay son of a single mom, whose grandfather was a convicted robber and grandmother jailed for assorted crimes. He went on to graduate from Cambridge.

Critics say Starmer lacks vision. They see his flip flops as unprincipled and opportunistic. Arguably, this “flaw” could be self-designed to give himself manoeuvrability when difficult choices must be made. His decisions are pragmatic, not ideological. In his first address from 10 Downing Street, Starmer said his prime ministership would be “unburdened by doctrine”.

Unsurprisingly, Starmer quickly reversed Labour’s long-standing policy on Kashmir. By referring to Kashmir as a bilateral issue between India and Pakistan and stressing that India’s constitutional issues should be decided by the Indian Parliament, Starmer opened gateways of friendship with the India lobby in the UK and pathways to optimise business potential with New Delhi. On foreign policy, British governments maintain continuity, though Starmer must repair relations with allies, including Europe.

Starmer is a man of contradictions: an anti-monarchist knighted by the queen, a one-time editor of a Trotskyite magazine who now talks like a Tory about wealth creation. “I always found him extraordinarily rational,” said Dominic Grieve, the former Conservative attorney general. Starmer devoted his legal career to fight for the rights of abused women in Britain and political prisoners in Northern Ireland and he supported environmental activists in their fight against McDonald’s. As prosecutor, he pressed charges against both Tory and Labour politicians for misusing expenses, oversaw the first British prosecution of Al Qaeda terrorists and saved 400 innocent prisoners from death sentence in Uganda, which he calls his biggest achievement. His activism earned him the nickname “lefty lawyer”.

Starmer is a public figure, but a privacy-conscious citizen and a committed family man. His wife Victoria is a nurse, his cat’s name is JoJo, but his children’s names are not public. He is an atheist, while his wife is Jewish, and the family observes the sabbath supper every week. Grounded and serious, Starmer is a good listener, prone to contemplation. As election results poured in, aides caught him gazing out of his window into the garden, deep in thought, watching children play. When he won, triumphalism and flamboyance were singularly absent.

Starmer appears stodgy, but he defended―and won―the rights of a British oddball to visit the Stonehenge heritage site during the summer solstice. The rational Starmer knew ex-biker Arthur Pendragon’s claim to be a “Druid”― descended from the mythical king Arthur―was absurd. But good lawyers believe in upholding every citizen’s right to legal defence.

“He was always looking 10 miles down the road at how a seemingly unwinnable case could be won on appeal to the Supreme Court or the European Court of Human Rights,” said lawyer Mark Stephens, one of Starmer’s former colleagues. He took steps towards his goal methodically. Said his friend, Baroness Jenny Chapman, “Keir seeks power for purpose. He is the kind of person who only wants to do a job if he can deliver.”

Starmer joined politics nine years ago, at age 52, unlike the elite Oxford Union debaters who, from birth, are ordained for politics. Working-class Starmer had to break barriers, but he was ambitious and determined. “He is very, very driven, and quite relentless,” observed Tom Baldwin, his biographer.

Starmer took over Labour after its 2019 election debacle, promising change. He delivered, using the lawyer’s fact-based, ideology-excised methodology. Setting his eyes on winning the 2024 elections, Starmer systematically and ruthlessly eliminated rivals from the party. He did not spare toxic demagogues, activists, anti-Semites and radical leftists, including his deputy Jessica Long-Bailey and former party leader Jeremy Corbyn.

It worked. Labour became acceptable again. “Keir took all the left out of the Labour Party. He has come with a brilliant set of values, principles and ways of growing Britain in complete alignment with my views as a commercial capitalist,” said billionaire businessman John Caudwell, previously a big Tory donor. “Steely Starmer” achieved change without an upheaval.

Now Starmer promises to change Britain. He will need much luck and ruthlessness to do that after 14 years of Tory governments. The economic mess is shocking: the worst decline in living standards since the 1950s; lowest wage growth in peace time since the Napoleonic wars; lowest productivity since 1826; and public debt at 90 per cent of the GDP. Bankrupted local councils have resulted in uncollected garbage, closed libraries and squeezed medicare.

Social divisions, inequality between people and regions, institutional decay and increasing elderly and child poverty are alarming. One study found half the British population is poorer than people living in poorer parts of Europe and the US. While bankers, lawyers and consultants thrived, significant classes of the population, such as farmers, workers, teachers, doctors and ordinary consumers are suffering from a severe cost of living crisis. Said outgoing Tory minister Robert Jenrick, “We didn’t have a good enough diagnosis of just how broken our public services were.” “Richie Rich” Tory prime minister Rishi Sunak was doomed by the widespread perception that he was “out of touch”.

Brexit, Tory scandals and economic meltdowns have scarred and scared the nation against the Tories. “The party that has dominated Britain for 200 years has imploded,” said Irish scholar Fintan O’Toole, who teaches at Princeton University. Swooping like a vulture over the Tory near-carcass is Reform Party’s Nigel Farage, the “father of Brexit”. His party won 14 per cent of the votes, but only five seats. The far-right leader seems ready to stage a MAGA-style takeover of the Tory party. The rise of Reform, Greens and Liberal Democrats reveal the fragmentation of the British electorate.

Given voter anxieties, Starmer’s priority is revitalising public services like state hospitals, schools and welfare. He must fix the housing mess; reduce legal and illegal migration, which people blame for job losses and housing shortages; settle strikes to kickstart the nation; decarbonise electricity to mitigate climate change that is causing intense and frequent floods and heatwaves; fix the drainage system (privatised by Margaret Thatcher) that shamed the nation by emptying untreated sewage into rivers and ponds. The list is long.

In addition to his ministers, Starmer also has two “weapons of mass traction” to tackle these challenges. Sue Gray, his seasoned chief of staff and former civil servant, has prepared a dossier for immediately addressing the problems. And there is the “data-nerd” and campaign manager, Morgan McSweeney, who has already started a data-heavy review of the party’s election performance to find pathways to win the next election in 2029.

Starmer plans to shepherd a “decade of renewal”. Government oversight will be back on issues ranging from political ethics to housing, football to brushing teeth―experts complain that the state of children’s teeth is “appalling”. Starmer is an uncharismatic leader, but he is an efficient manager. He converted Labour’s spectacular defeat in 2019 to a landslide in 2024. Labour’s vote share increased by only 1.5 per cent, but it bagged an extra 210 seats.

“Keir has the workaholism of Harold Wilson, the intense seriousness of Clement Attlee and the qualities associated with that great liberal reformer, William Gladstone,” said lawyer Geoffrey Robertson, who gave Starmer his first job, comparing him with stalwart prime ministers. “That should terrify the Tories.”

joe-biden-s-debate-debacle-forces-democrats-to-contemplate-alternatives-us-presidential-elections-2024

Sat Jul 06 12:03:03 IST 2024

This was not going to be a joyful presidential debate by any measure, but neither were Americans expecting it to be the waking nightmare it turned out to be. The United States and the world had gathered around their television sets on the night of June 27 to watch two opponents whom they were not particularly excited about, but instead found themselves in a chilling scenario: President Joe Biden, usually feisty, statesman-like, and wise, was barely audible and unable to deflect his opponent’s barrage of barbs; former president Donald Trump was in his element. He was confidently shooting from the hip―taunts, insults and lies about Biden’s record and his own. Civility was dead, but more than that, the election itself seemed to be in death-throes. Was Biden just having a bad day and a bad cold? Or was age finally catching up?

Everyone from ordinary Americans to the world media, including The New York Times, jumped into the fray. The verdict of the Times editorial board was scathing: “At Thursday night’s debate, President Biden appeared the shadow of a great public servant. The greatest public service he can now perform is to announce that he will not continue to run for re-election.”

Media across the US and the world has been equally tough on Biden. But he recovered a day later and gave a strong performance in Pennsylvania. So, was it just an aberration or something which will worsen with the passing months? After all, Biden will be 86 at the end of his second term. And yet, age is just a number, and some older adults are still going strong into their 90s. Biden has had a long and illustrious career and has the gravitas and experience to pull off difficult decisions.

As California Governor Gavin Newsom wrote in a fundraising letter for the Democratic National Committee, “I was at the debate last night. I watched it. I tried to keep track of Trump’s lies as it went on and I ran out of paper. On the substance, Joe Biden won the debate last night. That’s what matters to me. Don’t look at 30 minutes. Look at the last three and a half years under Joe Biden. It’s been a masterclass: 15.6 million jobs created―eight times more than the last three Republican presidents combined.”

On the other side is Trump who has been the king of chaos with everyone left bruised and hurting, except for his special band of followers. The country is truly polarised between these two men. According to a latest survey by the Pew Research Center, voters are divided on so many issues. A quarter of Americans hold unfavourable views of both Biden and Trump, making them the least-liked pair of major-party candidates in decades. The survey found only 39 per cent of Americans view Trump favourably, while just 37 per cent have a positive opinion of Biden.

After Biden’s performance in the debate, many voters are anxious to see him step down in favour of a candidate who has a winning chance against Trump, as the alternative is too dangerous to contemplate; Trump has clearly shown that he wishes to rule like an autocrat and democracy will be dead in the world’s oldest democracy. It is late in the game, but many voters think that an infusion of fresh blood into the Democratic campaign may yet save the day.

However, the decision rests solely with Biden. As political columnist David Lauter wrote in the Los Angeles Times, “To be clear, no Democratic Party official or combination of officials has the authority to force Biden out. He won the party’s primaries. The nomination is his to claim; he can renounce it, but only if he so chooses.”

When Biden was inaugurated four years ago, he had said that he planned to be a one-term president and pass on the mantle to a younger leadership. One does not know when or why his thinking changed but it would have been best to have a succession plan with the many strong young Democrats in the party and remain as elder statesman and mentor.

According to Axios, “Dr Jill Biden (the first lady); his younger sister, Valerie Biden; and 85-year-old Ted Kaufman, the president’s longtime friend and constant adviser; plus a small band of White House advisers, are the only Biden deciders. This decades-long kitchen cabinet operates as an extended family, council of elders and governing oligarchy. These allies alone hold sway over decisions big and small in Biden’s life and presidency.”

It may have been a private decision, but after the debate debacle, it has become a public matter and all Americans have become vocal on who should run for president. Now whether he wants to or not, Biden may be compelled to write a different ending to his White House story as voters discuss viable candidates.

So who are the possibilities? Vice President Kamala Harris has, at times, struggled to define her role at Biden’s side, and is regarded somewhat of a political liability. There are a handful of other good contenders, including governors Newsom of California, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Other possibilities include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Senators Cory Booker of New Jersey and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota. There were also reports about former first lady Michelle Obama as a candidate, but after Biden’s debate disaster, Barack Obama issued a forceful statement supporting the president.

Many voters are also furious that Trump, as usual, has got away scot-free in spite of being a felon and having so many charges against him. Will his Teflon persona last?

As Biden told a rally in North Carolina after the debate: “I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to,” but, he added, “I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job.” To which he added, “I don’t debate as well as I used to. But I know how to tell the truth.”

Just two days after the debate, Governor Phil Murphy of New Jersey hosted a private fund-raising dinner for the president at his home, raising $3.7 million for the campaign. Calling Biden “America’s comeback kid” Murphy said: “It was acknowledging that they had a tough night and also acknowledging that we’ve got to remember that this has been a heck of a run the past four years, and we’ve got to keep it going. They have to hit the gas pedal hard.”

Chintan Patel, director of Indian American Impact, a pro-Democratic group, and his team sent out an email to supporters about the two competing visions seen on the debate: “From protecting reproductive freedom and voting rights to fighting health care costs and the global climate crisis, the Biden-Harris administration is ready to act on the issues that matter most to us. And as the fastest growing voter bloc in many states, Indian and South Asians have the power to decide who represents us and the future of our country.”

As this nail-biter of an election moves toward its unknowable finale, the world watches and waits. Americans are going about their daily lives, but the upcoming elections are never far from their minds, and a matter for stress and gloom. As the stand-up comedienne Zarna who is Indian and American piped up on social media, in ‘puja-mode’ to the music of Kabhi Khushi, Kabhi Gham, “Tonight’s a very difficult night for America and I’m inviting you all to pray for America.”

―Lavina Melwani is a New York based writer and blogs at Lassi with Lavina.

tibetan-politician-penpa-tsering-interview

Sat Jun 15 13:09:00 IST 2024

Interview/ Penpa Tsering, president, Tibetan government in exile

PENPA TSERING HAS been closely watching China’s military drills in the Taiwan Strait, renaming of villages in Arunachal Pradesh and the aggression in Ladakh. The president of the Tibetan government in exile in Dharamsala has trashed China’s claims over Indian territory, citing the 1914 Simla Agreement that defines the border between India and Tibet to which Tibetans were signatories. “Tibetans are happy with that,” he says. Excerpts from an interview:

Q/ China’s military drills in the Taiwan Strait have spurred concerns about a potential armed conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.

A/ Some years ago, when China announced air defence identification zones, I told our American friends that if the Chinese can claim the air they will claim anything underneath that. This is exactly what is happening, and it is not just the endeavour of reunification or invasion of Taiwan. Look at the whole of South China Sea or East China Sea, alongside Japan and Taiwan. China is giving Chinese names to all these territories. This is to redefine history, remove the historical background and claim these territories as its own. Though China denies territorial hegemonic ambitions, the world knows better.

But I tell the Taiwanese that China is not ready to attack them yet. Xi Jinping keeps moving the generals and commanders from one place to another in a very short period of time. There is no time for the generals to build relations with cadres. A general and the second-in-command do not trust each other. Then there are political commissars who oversee their work and they also do not trust each other. It is good for Xi to ensure that there is no military coup against him, but it is not enough to fight a war. You need synchronisation among the cadres and also between the different arms of the military.

China is the only country that spends more money on internal security than external security threats, which demonstrates the deep distrust between the rulers and the ruled.

These are serious vulnerabilities aside from the economic wars that China is going through and the pivoting towards the Global South, which is also a huge competition for India. The question is how much purchasing power does the Global South have? And if China floods all the Global South countries with cheap products, it will kill all their small and medium-scale industries. Many already have realised the impact of Chinese investments in their countries. For example, all the African countries are now restructuring their loan repayment. And the level of debt economies that China has created around the maritime Silk Road and the taking over of strategic locations are known to people who understand China. Unfortunately, the Global South still has to learn more. They have very little understanding of China’s motivation.

Q/ How do you assess the border dispute between India and China?

A/ Way back in 1949, just after communism took over China, it invaded Tibet. Now, it claims parts of the Indian territory as southern Tibet and Arunachal Pradesh. But we Tibetans were signatories to the 1914 Simla Agreement that defines the border between India and Tibet through the McMahon Line. We are happy with that. But China’s claim over all these territories in Arunachal Pradesh or in Ladakh is based on what it claims to be Tibet’s territory. It has now started renaming all territories, including those in Arunachal Pradesh. Therefore, the question now is whether the Tibetan interest and the Indian interest aligns or not.

India has been following the One China policy for decades. The only change now is that India does not keep repeating it. And, as I always say, India knows best. We also understand that India or any country will not leave aside its national interest for the interest of Tibet. But I think India tried its best to reach out to China, create a better atmosphere, both in political and business relationships. Unfortunately, China is pushing India more towards the west because of its behaviour.

Q/ Should India be worried about China’s ambitions?

A/ The question is whether China needs India and the western world more or the democratic world needs China more. As long as you keep giving more business to China, it will keep growing. And right now, there is no sign of China attempting to make a move towards more openness and becoming a responsible partner in the global community. Particularly in Europe and America, you get this feeling that you cannot make China more powerful than what it already is. Chinese investments are growing in space technology, military, quantum computing, artificial intelligence and the Belt and Road Initiative, and creating debt economies around the world. So maybe it is time for India to recalibrate its position on China. Beijing respects only strength, not weakness.

Q/ The US Senate has passed the Resolve Tibet Act, urging the Chinese government to engage in dialogue with the Dalai Lama or Tibetan leaders to resolve the China-Tibet dispute. How significant is this development?

A/ We have been working closely with the US Congress over the past two years to move this bill called the Resolve Tibet Act, which talks about countering China’s disinformation on Tibetan history. And we are almost there. The bill was passed by the House Foreign Affairs Committee in November 2023, and this February it was passed on the House floor with 392 votes in favour. In April, it was unanimously moved in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and it recently went through the Senate. When it becomes a law in the US, it will become an important tool for us to reach out to other governments to counter China’s false narrative that Tibet is part of the People’s Republic of China.

We follow a non-violent approach to resolve the China-Tibet dispute through the Middle Way policy espoused by the Dalai Lama, which can only be understood if we understand the polarities that exist. One polarity is to understand the historical status of Tibet as an independent state, and the other polarity is the present situation of Tibet under the repressive communist government. The historical status has not been pushed as much as we would have liked to and China, on the other hand, has been asking every country to say that Tibet is part of PRC. That is why the law is important to explain to governments that if they keep parroting what the Chinese want them to say then it is against the law because if they support negotiations between Representatives of His Holiness the Dalai Lama and the Chinese government, then they cannot contradict themselves by saying Tibet is part of PRC, because that removes the very ground for negotiation.

Q/ The Dalai Lama turns 89 next month. As the political head of the Tibetan government in exile, what is your focus today?

A/ I have been travelling a lot to visit all the Tibetan settlements over the last two years. I promised my people that I would visit every single community two times in five years. We created a platform called the Voluntary Tibet Advocacy Group, where every Tibetan can join in advocating for Tibet. And this has been gaining ground now. One of our challenges is to prepare our younger generation for future leadership. Another challenge is to identify future challenges and make sure that those challenges are not there even before we reach there. Even though His Holiness keeps reassuring us that he will live for another two decades and more, we have to keep the community together, communications going on and reach out to the international community. I tell our Chinese friends, let us see whether Chinese Communist Party outlives the Dalai Lama or His Holiness outlives CCP.

Q/ Do you think it is time the Indian government openly declared that the Dalai Lama’s successor will be chosen by the Dalai Lama himself or the Tibetan government in exile?

A/ To some extent it is taken for granted as to where India stands on this, whether it says it vocally or not. I am sure the Indian government is concerned about these issues and developing its own strategy. I believe that it is not going to happen during my tenure. His Holiness will definitely live long. But, at the same time, just as every government has its protocols, we are also preparing protocols. Whenever that eventuality happens, it will be revised by successive Sikyongs or Kashag (cabinet) members at that time.

I am sure that the Indian government will also be seriously thinking about this even though I have not had concrete conversations about this. But I think it is understood that these are definitely matters of concern. Fortunately for the Tibetans, because of His Holiness’s leadership, we enjoy bipartisan, bicameral support on Tibet in the US. Even in the Indian Parliament, we have an all-party Indian parliamentary group for Tibet and all the successive governments have followed similar policies on Tibet. Of course, they are more vocal when they are in the opposition and less vocal when they are in government, but they all have the same thinking and support for Tibet.

how-a-governor-of-andamans-influenced-the-barbados-programme-of-action-for-small-island-developing-states-in-1994

Sat May 25 14:15:21 IST 2024

In February, the effortlessly elegant Indian permanent representative to the United Nations, Ruchira Kamboj, presented a cheque to the ambassador of Antigua and Barbuda as contribution for hosting the fourth global conference for Small Island Developing States from May 27-30. It was a reaffirmation of the support India had extended to SIDS from the very first conference 30 years ago, which put small islands on the map of global responsibility and saw a pivotal contribution by an individual who might otherwise have been considered an unlikely presence on the multilateral diplomatic stage.

The ministry of external affairs had proposed that India’s delegation to the 1994 conference, held in Barbados, be led by one of its ministers of state. Prime minister P.V. Narasimha Rao, in whose office I was working at the time, was not enthused. “This is not an expression of altruism,” he remarked. “It is a question of self-interest, of our identity as a nation that has 1,300 islands within the geography of our union. The problems that are being discussed, and the solutions that may be attempted, are not external affairs.”

He paused, reflected a moment, and instructed: “Let me speak to Purushothaman.” I was used to the telegraphic quality of Rao’s instructions and understood he wished to be connected on the phone to Vakkom Purushothaman (VP), then lieutenant governor of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. (I should say “largely used to”; there was an occasion in 1992 when he said, “Let me speak to Narayanan”, meaning K.R. Narayanan, then member of Parliament, and I mistakenly connected him to M.K Narayanan, director of the Intelligence Bureau, who was bemused to hear the prime minister congratulate him on his nomination as the Congress party nominee for the vice presidency of India.)

In any event, after a ten-minute conversation, Rao called me in to tell me VP had agreed to lead our delegation to the conference. “Tell Sreeni to contact him and tie up details,” he added, a reference to T.P Sreenivasan, our deputy permanent representative to the UN, who was leading the officials' segment to the conference. “Purushothaman wants to know how best to update himself on our foreign policy priorities; please get him our last three speeches in the UN General Assembly which I have told him are the best resource.”

VP had read the speeches thoroughly by the time he reached Delhi a few days later; he was particularly moved by a reference in the 1993 speech to the “inviolability of the individual as one of the profoundly humanistic traditions of Indian civilisation,” a truth he felt, and with which the prime minister agreed, should be central to our contribution to the conference, affirming that change derived from the ideas and actions of the person and, cumulatively, the people.

It was something he himself fervently believed in; on the very day he left Port Blair for Delhi, April 23, the panchayat system came into being in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, flowing from the 73rd constitutional amendment piloted in Parliament by the Rao government the previous year. VP brought his pen to the announcement which noted that Panchayati Raj “confirms the belief in the people of the country …that they are capable of formulating their own plans for material prosperity, social upliftment and economic independence.”

When VP arrived in Barbados, he found a country whose excitement at hosting its first global conference was tempered with the disappointment and disbelief of the upset loss by the West Indies cricket team to England at the Bridgetown Test ten days earlier, a match made legendary by the two centuries thundered by English captain Alec Stewart. “He showed us yet again that the brilliance of a team depends on the brilliance of each player,” Barbados prime minister Lloyd Erskine Sandiford remarked to VP at the opening reception that evening. VP beamed. He may have found a kindred spirit.

He recalled Sandiford’s remark the next morning, when he found himself, at the coffee break, at a table with the prime minister and the conference’s precise yet imaginative coordinator, senior UN official Miles Stoby. He took the opportunity to suggest to Sandiford that, in that spirit, the conference “outcome” document should focus on the potential unleashed by individuals and in their collective identity and centrality as peoples.

“But, Governor, we have affirmed that in our opening paragraph,” Sandiford responded. He leafed through the folder he carried and found the draft. “Here it is. In fact, we have taken it in entirety from the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development adopted two years ago. ‘Human beings are at the centre of concerns for sustainable development. They are entitled to a healthy and productive life in harmony with nature.’”

“But that is precisely my point, Prime Minister,” VP responded. “This portrays human beings as beneficiaries of entitlement, not as the source and agent of change. I myself have found the best ideas for what government and administration can do comes from conversations with thinking, reflective individuals.”

“How do you have those conversations, Governor?” Sandiford asked, as Miles Stoby recalled to me some months later.

“Walks,” VP replied.

“Walks?” Sandiford queried.

“Walks,” VP replied. “Every morning, I walk through the streets of our capital, Port Blair, and talk to people. Some have particular problems, which we try to resolve. But most of them have ideas and many of those ideas can be implemented. You get so much from idle talk.”

“Idle talk?” asked Sandiford. “What is that?”

“What you and I are having now,” said VP equably, wincing a little as he took a sip of the cheerlessly chicory-less coffee. “When we speak without purpose or agenda, often our best ideas come from that.”

“Well, this idle talk has certainly yielded one,” Sandiford replied. “Miles, we should rework our opening. Governor, we will continue to draw upon your guidance.”

“Mine is a simple approach,” VP replied. “We have to focus on environmental dangers, development assistance, lack of freshwater resources… all these must find mention in our document. But the people, and the person, come first.”

“We also sometimes forget the cultural dimension”, VP continued, “but it is the most personal attribute of the human being and one we must respect if our islands and their peoples are to flourish but, even more importantly, simply survive.”

The spirit of VP’s counsel was well received by delegations as they finalised the “Barbados Programme of Action,” although he was careful not to take public credit for it. And its eventual opening affirmation could be seen to derive directly from his conversation with Sandiford.

It read: “The survival of small island developing states is firmly rooted in their human resources and cultural heritage, which are their most significant assets; those assets are under severe stress and all efforts must be taken to ensure the central position of people in the process of sustainable development.”

As Sandiford read the plan of action aloud for unanimous adoption by the conference, Miles Stoby recalled, his eyes left the script at this paragraph and seemed to focus on a distant point in the room. In fact, they were meeting VP’s eyes and an unobtrusive touch of right hand to forehead conveyed his gratitude and appreciation.

Once the conference concluded, Sandiford came up to VP. “Vakkom,” he said (they were now on first name terms, or at least what Sandiford, unfamiliar with the complexities of Kerala nomenclatures, considered a first name), “let me show you our symbol of the central position of people.”

They got into the prime minister’s car and drove a short distance. “This is an institution with which you are familiar, Vakkom,” Sandiford said. “Our parliament’s House of Assembly.” They were now in the chamber and Sandiford walked up to the front. “And this another symbol you know well: the Speaker’s chair.”

VP paused before it. “It is magnificent,” he said.

“It should be,” Sandiford said quietly. “It is made of the finest Indian teak. It was a gift from your government to us when we attained independence in November 1966.”

VP knelt before the chair and placed his forehead on the floor. Without the least trace of self-consciousness, Sandiford did so, too. They rose a moment later and left the chamber quietly, in companionable silence.

At VP’s hotel, where Sandiford dropped him, the two men shook hands. They both knew it was a goodbye, but left the word unsaid.

Hilary Beckles, vice chancellor of the University of West Indies, has written of Caribbean small islands as “adamant enough to say to the mighty ocean that seeks to engulf and erase them ― “if you want to pass, go around!” VP brought a measure of adamance to the Andamans, too; while an assertive adamance, it was not combative, but a measure of the confidence its people possessed as an entity of their own, “a great chain of being,” in Sandiford’s phrase, a part of the great and vast country which was their home.

Sandiford and VP passed away less than a year ago, within weeks of each other. In the wealth of their lives, the Barbados conference was just one punctuation point, but a point whose imprint was embedded in time and in heart, with its legacy of a swift friendship that brought an enduring transformation in the way nations regarded their peoples, from beneficiaries to creators of change.

A nonresident senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress, New Delhi, and former IFS officer, the writer served at the UN for three decades.

campus-protests-continue-in-us-as-students-demand-realignment-of-israeli-ties

Sat May 18 15:41:21 IST 2024

More than 35,000 people have lost their lives and around 80,000 have been injured in Israel’s military offensive in Gaza since Hamas launched a dreadful attack on Israel last October 7. An entire population of refugees is now stranded in their own territory, starving for food and lacking medical supplies. Yet lightning bolts of weaponry continue to rain on the beleaguered Palestinians. And Israel does not seem to stop its retaliation against Hamas, which killed around 1,200 Israelis and took hundreds hostages.

Events in Gaza have triggered a reaction in many parts of the world, particularly among the youth. The pro-Palestine protests, which have erupted across American campuses, have transfixed the world. The students, forsaking education and regular campus life, have set up encampments on the greens and even barricaded themselves in buildings. Thousands of students have been arrested, their tents torn down, and yet they stand undeterred, insisting on an end to the war in Gaza and for colleges and universities to divest funding of the war, which means eliminating investments in businesses that operate in or otherwise support Israel.

Yet, nothing is simple regarding the protests or the cause. It is a complex, many-layered conflict which has come to a head through many, many generations. Nothing is black or white―it is a grey area where there is right on both sides, a complex morality play.

Today’s youth have no idea of Israel’s past, of how it was birthed from the inhumane injustices to the Jewish community through the ages and how it struggled for selfhood and survival, after the Nazi pogroms. The Palestinians also have their own stories of loss, struggle for their lives and homeland.

This young generation of protesters, which has been maligned as being of no consequence, is trying to enter into a global conversation about good and evil in how the world operates. In fact, the pro-Palestinian protests first started at Columbia University in New York when the students stormed the Hamilton Hall, which was the site of a historic protest against the Vietnam War in 1968.

In spite of Columbia’s long history of student activism over the years, the new president of Columbia, Nemat Minouche Shafik, called in the police to tear down the encampment. After that, protests sprung up in universities across the US, including Yale, MIT, the University of Southern California, George Washington University and Emory University.

Another conflict on these campuses is the ongoing counterprotests by Jewish students who are a visible part of many universities across America. Antisemitism is the unacknowledged elephant in the room, and for months, Jewish students have faced threats and even physical assaults on campus and these have escalated in direct response to the events of Gaza.

A new survey conducted for Jewish groups found that antisemitism is a threat for Jewish students, with one in three students personally experiencing antisemitic hate directed at them. In the last academic year, incidents on college and university campuses spiked by a staggering 321 per cent to 922 incidents, most of which occurred after the October 7 attacks.

There are also a number of Jewish students taking part in the pro-Palestinian encampment, but they are a minority. Pew Research data shows that a majority of American Jews are emotionally supportive of Israel, but support differs among generational divides, with younger Jews less supportive.

The education committee of the US House of Representatives has been investigating campus antisemitism for the past few months, focusing on how universities are combating hate. The committee held a hearing in December questioning the presidents of Harvard, MIT and the University of Pennsylvania about antisemitism. The testimony was so disastrous that within weeks, the presidents of both Harvard and UPenn had to step down.

All this is happening against the backdrop of the upcoming presidential elections, and how President Joe Biden handles America’s long-established pro-Israel stance in the light of the Gaza war. The president told students: “Dissent is essential for democracy, but dissent must never lead to disorder. There is the right to protest, but not the right to cause chaos.” As the war continues, Biden faces an erosion of support from students and also from Arab Americans and Muslim Americans, who formed a key support bloc for him in the 2020 elections. It could hurt him in key battlegrounds such as Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Biden’s Republican rival Donald Trump favours police action and the ejection of protesters from campuses. He said it “was a beautiful thing to watch” NYPD officers raiding a Columbia University building occupied by pro-Palestinian students. Trump asked officials to crack down on campus protests across the United States. The staunchly pro-Israel New York mayor Eric Adams is convinced of an outside hand in the protests, and readily sent in the police to fix the situation. The mayor as well as the administration insisted that bad external actors had infiltrated the protests and so it became a crime scene, raising the temperature and causing protests nationwide. From a peaceful protest it turned into something much more menacing.

THE WEEK spoke with political theorist Mahmood Mamdani, who was named by the Prospect Magazine as one of the world’s top 50 thinkers in 2021, about the ongoing crisis. Having been exiled from Idi Amin’s Uganda, he is well-versed in the history of protest. A professor of anthropology at Columbia University, Mamdani conducted teach-ins and participated with the faculty in forming a circle around student protesters, just before the police arrived. “The students are overwhelmingly motivated by moral urgency,” he said. “This protest followed October 7, and what was happening in Gaza, and it followed the inquiry and determination by the International Court of Justice that what was happening in Gaza was plausible genocide and the students were motivated by a moral conviction. That was the event to which everybody needed to have a response and their conviction was that the university had to make sure that it was not connected with anything that supported the genocide, and therefore the demand for divestment.”

With the heightened security at Columbia, it would not have been possible for outside forces to infiltrate the campus. “The protest was itself a site of education,” said Mamdani. “I gave the first teach-in, and I was asked to talk about the origin of the divestment movement in relation to South Africa, and we showed short videos on previous protests―there was intense education going on.” He rejected the suggestion that outside agitators were needed when the students went through days of intense sleep and food deprivation to stand up for what they believed in.

The testimony of the student council representative to the university senate, which was published in the student newspaper, Daily Columbia Spectator, too, was on similar lines. “These are not people who are presumed to be mindless, that something has to be fed from the outside,” he said “They’re not infants. These are supposed to be the brightest kids as the current system determines brightness. So, it’s an insult, frankly, to find people asking this question.”

Rather than bad actors, the protesters outside the campus gates are often regular folks trying to raise awareness about the Palestinians’ plight. Manolo De Los Santos, an organiser with The People’s Forum, a Manhattan-based activists’ group, said those joining the protests alongside students were just “ordinary New Yorkers”. “The power of this moment is that it’s everyone coming together. It’s health care workers, it’s teachers, it’s city workers. It’s ordinary people who feel so strongly.”

In this crisis, student journalists at the college newspapers have shown great integrity and strength in documenting the true story in papers from Columbia University’s Spectator to the UCLA’s Daily Bruin. Some student journalists are battling exams even as they report on protests. Student-run news websites at Yale and the University of Texas-Austin cover the action with innovative live blogs. The Daily Trojan’s print editions have stopped for the semester at the University of Southern California, but editor-in-chief Anjali Patel is keeping a reporter and photographer available at all hours to cover the protests. All during final exam season. “We are still students at the end of the day,” said Patel. The Pulitzer Prize Board took the unusual step of commending the bravery of these student journalists.

At Princeton, a dozen students took the drastic step of going on a hunger strike and were joined by history professor Gyan Prakash who fasted for a day with them. Prakash was one of more than 120 faculty members who signed a letter last week condemning the “criminalisation, gross mischaracterisation and harassment of nonviolent student protesters,” and calling for the “immediate resignation” of a vice president whom they viewed as largely responsible.

At Brown University in Rhode Island, the students negotiated and reached an understanding with the administrators. They ended the encampment and the university agreed that five students would be invited to meet with members of the governing body to present their arguments to divest Brown’s endowment from “companies that facilitate the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory”.

So, the facts change every day in this fast-moving tale on American campuses which is so closely linked to what happens on the world stage, and how America reassesses its support to Israel and how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responds.

Looking at the larger picture that the US has traditionally been pro-Israel, how are Americans responding to the Gaza situation? Mamdani said the real opposition was not in the Congress or elsewhere, it was within the Jewish community. “Since October 7, the big division in Columbia was inside the Jewish community–Zionist and anti-Zionist, war and anti-war,” he said. “Indeed, this is the big division in America, affecting Americans and the wider Jewish community in the US. It is a generational divide, questioning the relationship of Judaism and Zionism and discovering the anti-Zionist tradition within Judaism, which was very strong in the 1940s.”

Empathy is perhaps the most transformative and game-changing emotion there is, and the protesting students seem to be driven by it. It could be a coming of age of American youth, trying to discover a legitimate role for themselves in a crisis-torn world.

Lavina Melwani is a New York-based writer for several international publications and blogs at Lassi with Lavina.

south-asian-community-in-the-us-have-widely-different-opinions-about-the-upcoming-elections

Sat May 11 16:18:31 IST 2024

How can one understand what motivates South Asian Americans to vote, or not to vote? I tracked the species in their natural habitat—the temples, storefronts, and the chai and dosa eateries of Queens, in New York City.

Jackson Heights, called Jaikishan Heights affectionately by desis, is the mother of all South Asian neighbourhoods, a melting pot of many different cultures. They may be cultures which often bicker in Asia, but on these streets, you find signposts which tout Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi groceries all in one store; you have Bangladeshi, Chinese and Thai cuisine, all in one restaurant. Another ambitious eatery promotes Nepali, Bangla and Indo-Chinese food on its signboard.

The worshipers who stream into the Satyanarayan Hindu Temple on Woodside Avenue are from many diverse towns and communities in India, Nepal, Bhutan and the Caribbean islands. They share the same gods and gather together on the temple’s carpeted floor to chant the holy bhajans. They also share many of the same foods—the spicy samosa and the sugary sweet gulab jamun are loved by all these communities.

Yet, when it comes to politics and the upcoming elections, they have widely differing opinions and feelings. Having come from countries where politics is often regarded as a dirty game, many are indifferent to it or just plain apathetic, believing their participation will have no real impact on the outcome. Others, who have lived here longer, know that there is strength in numbers and their vote can make a difference.

Meena Kashyap, who is from India, has seen this community up close. “Ever since I became a citizen, I have always voted,” she said. “After my retirement, I often work for the election commission. During elections, we tell them where to go to vote, and how to register themselves. Voting in the local elections is even more important because when you put the right people locally, you are sure whatever is happening on top is trickling down. The right people are there to see that everything works.”

Kashyap, whom I have known for many years, accompanied me on this informal reportage mission. We ate plates of spicy chaat and aloo tikki and had enormous glasses of mango lassi. We talked to servers and staff. We then moved on to sari shops, beauty parlours, boutiques and mithai stores. Everywhere, people were polite and friendly—and reluctant to disclose too much about their voting patterns. At a beauty parlour, they were happy to chat, but not on camera. Unlike the youthful Instagram generation, they were uncomfortable about their names and photos being published.

As a reporter, it was awkward not to be able to record people’s names or photos, until I realised that, that I was part of the story. One of the reasons for their reticence is that many of them are newcomers, not entitled to vote. We had stumbled into a surreal world, down a strange rabbit hole of both new immigrants and people who had been here for years—but were still mired in their quest for papers. Many of them would make ideal citizens, but were not there yet.

As one young, earnest Nepali worker explained, he would love to vote, but his papers were still in submission stage. I got the same reaction from a few Bangladeshi workers at fast food carts. Indeed, the audacious possibility of American citizenship is what had brought many to this country and many were still in limbo, waiting to accomplish that. The manager at a supermarket observed that once people became citizens, they generally would be able to go for better paying jobs and would not remain blue-collar workers in an ethnic neighbourhood.

At a longstanding popular sari store on 74th Street, the tenor was a little different. In the calmer environment, the owner, who is Indian American, told me that he always voted, but was a New Jersey resident. His manager said he did not always vote because of time constraints, but his daughters always voted. It was, however, the Bangladeshi female staff, who were most enthusiastic about talking about their voting experience. Samiha Chowdhury, who spends her days showing saris and kurta pieces to clients, has worked in the store since 1997. She said that she had voted for the past 28 years. Her whole family used to vote in Bangladesh and she has carried on that tradition here.

Keya Khadija, also from Bangladesh, has been here just one year and her papers are being processed. She is here with her husband and children and recalls they always voted in Bangladesh. She said, “The Bangladeshi community is very active in voting and I will also vote because there is inflation and also unemployment.”

The South Asian community is not a monolith. And it is made up of many different people who respond in different ways. There are many who are born here, who have been educated here or have been living here for years. For them, voting is commonplace and their story differs from that of the people who are just getting their bearings and who are still part of the ‘strugglers club’. Perhaps to make a stronger voting community, these voiceless people need to be nurtured and given training in what makes good citizens.

Sudha Acharya is the founder and executive director of South Asian Council for Social Services (SACSS), whose mission is to empower and integrate underserved South Asians into the civic life of Queens. “We have citizens, we have green card holders and we also have people who have no papers at all,” she said.

The organisation has a multi-armed approach to the community. There is a food bank, legal clinic, civic engagement, health clinics, workforce development and language access. “We connect them to benefits like health insurance and food stamps and make services available to them. We also make them aware of their civic responsibility and how they are part of the whole political structure. We encourage them to vote.”

During elections, SACSS volunteers do phone banking to hundreds of thousands in the community. Said Acharya, “I think there should be support for this population that is culturally sensitive and language-based. I would support any candidate who is for these things, for diversity.”

An organisation which is involved with GOTV (Get Out the Vote) efforts is Adhikaar, a human rights and social justice group, based in Jackson Heights. It is a women-led group, and its policy manager Tsering Lama gave an optimistic picture of the civic health of the South Asian voter community: “There is definitely a big South Asian population that is voting. We specifically work with a Nepali speaking community from countries like Nepal, India, Bhutan, Tibet and Burma. Since our communities are newer, we want to make sure that our members vote and have access to the voting information.”

Adhikaar gives those who are not yet eligible to vote the right tools to become future good citizens. “Civic engagement for us is not just through the narrow lens of people who can or cannot vote,” said Lama. “It is really about being able to be in this country and being able to be civically engaged. And that can be through any form of advocacy and being involved in campaigns and to really better their own lives.”

Lavina Melwani is a New York-based journalist who writes for several international magazines. She blogs at Lassi with Lavina.

bilateral-trade-between-the-uae-and-india-has-grown-almost-sixteen-per-cent-year-on-year

Sat May 04 15:47:20 IST 2024

The strategic partnership between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and India has never been stronger. At the heart of the flourishing relationship lies the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). This week marks the second anniversary of the implementation of an agreement that has bolstered bilateral trade and investment by slashing tariffs, streamlining cross-border trade, broadening market access for services, instituting dispute settlement mechanisms, and safeguarding intellectual property rights.

The numbers speak for themselves. Bilateral trade has reached historic highs, growing from $72.9 billion to $84.5 billion between the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 fiscal years—an almost 16 per cent year-on-year increase. The UAE has also emerged as India's fourth-largest foreign investor, with $3.3 billion in FDI inflows during the 2022-2023 fiscal year. This remarkable progress is a testament to the shared vision of our two nations to harness the power of economic integration to deliver mutual prosperity.

Building upon this success, the two nations have elevated their collaboration by inaugurating the UAE-India CEPA Council (UICC) this year. This high-level body brings together government officials and private sector leaders from both countries to identify new avenues for collaboration and ensure the agreement continues to deliver tangible results. The council's work has already yielded dividends, with several Indian companies engaging with key stakeholders from the UAE to address business issues and establish a presence to leverage our strategic location as a global hub.

The UICC has emerged as a pivotal driver in fostering closer ties and fortifying the partnership between the two nations. Looking ahead, the potential of the UAE-India economic partnership remains vast. Both countries are committed to harnessing innovation, sustainable development, and advanced technologies to drive future growth. Emerging sectors, including renewable energy, agri-tech, and digital services hold immense promise and will be a key focus under the CEPA framework.

The integration propelled by the agreement has made it easier for businesses to operate across borders and has boosted trade, as evidenced by initiatives such as the India-UAE rupee-dirham direct trade agreement and the launch of Bharat Mart. The Bharat Mart project, a flagship project conceived under the CEPA framework, is poised to become a significant distribution hub for Indian enterprises in Dubai. Leveraging the UAE's strategic location and top-tier logistics infrastructure, Bharat Mart is empowering Indian firms to tap into new markets and expand their global footprint. Similarly, the India-UAE rupee-dirham direct trade agreement has played a pivotal role in facilitating seamless and cost-effective transactions, thereby strengthening the export capabilities of Indian products.

A prime illustration of how the CEPA is fostering transformative and future-focused collaboration is evident across the food and renewable energy sector, where the UAE and India are already engaged in ambitious projects. Most recently, during the Gujarat visit of His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, president of the UAE, several MoUs covering a range of sectors were exchanged between the UAE and India, reflecting the nations’ shared commitment to fostering collaboration and achieving ambitious goals.

The MoU in food park development emphasised the importance of the India-UAE food park project, aimed at enhancing food security by strengthening food supply chains and promoting trade in food and agriculture between the two nations. The MoU on investment cooperation in the renewable energy sector highlighted the potential for joint efforts in implementing renewable energy projects. Earlier this year, our two nations unveiled a groundbreaking agreement to establish a large-scale green hydrogen plant in the Emirates—a venture that will capitalise on Indian expertise in renewable energy technologies and the UAE's exceptional infrastructure and natural resources.

The significance of the UAE-India CEPA extends into broader realms beyond the economic sphere. By introducing transparent competition and facilitating smoother cross-border transactions, the CEPA fosters an environment conducive to cultural exchange and social integration. It builds on the UAE's unwavering devotion to pluralism and India's multiplicity, strengthening people-to-people connections through deepened economic ties.

Cultural and social integration has always stood as a cornerstone of this robust partnership, stimulating synergies and producing the conditions where diverse communities thrive. The UAE's commitment to creating a welcoming space for varied cultures echoes India's age-old tradition of honouring its rich diversity. The seamless experience for Indians travelling, conducting business, and thriving in the UAE underscores the mutual trust and respect shared between our nations. This mutual embrace of pluralism has become a defining element of the UAE-India relationship, encouraging an atmosphere where innovative ideas, entrepreneurial vigour, and collective prosperity flourish.

The success of the UAE-India CEPA is a tribute to the depth of our strategic relationship, and the power of economic integration to drive broader societal and geopolitical transformation. And the journey ahead is an exciting one. By unlocking the full potential of the CEPA, the UAE and India not only realise their own economic ambitions, but also set a global standard for how nations can collaborate to create a more integrated, innovative, and sustainable world.

In the years to come, the UAE-India partnership will continue to grow from strength to strength. By deepening our economic ties, we will also strengthen the cultural, diplomatic, and people-to-people connections that have long defined this relationship. Together, we will forge a new era of progress, innovation, and global influence—one that benefits not just our two nations, but the entire world.

The writer is the UAE ambassador to India.

former-presidents-barack-obama-and-bill-clinton-appear-together-with-president-biden-to-bolster-his-sagging-re-election-campaign

Sat Apr 06 16:32:38 IST 2024

You could call it a pilgrimage for the darshan of three presidents: thousands on foot, pushing against each other in New York City in cold, rainy weather under umbrellas, moving inch by inch to reach a mysterious blue tent. All well-dressed, many coming straight from work, with one mission―to reach the Radio City Music Hall in midtown Manhattan, through heavy security and blocked streets on March 28. It took a few hours, but no one was complaining: the goal was nothing less than to see and listen to three well-loved American presidents, Joe Biden, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, live on stage together.

This was a Democratic fundraiser for the Biden reelection campaign and, in fact, it was said to be the largest fundraiser ever, for even before the evening began, it had already raised $26 million. Tickets were from $225 to $5,00,000 each, and the 6,000-seat venue had sold out. An opportunity to have a photograph with all three presidents taken by the noted photographer Annie Leibovitz was $1,00,000 each. For the biggest power donors, there was also an after-event reception with the presidents and celebrities.

That New York is a ‘blue city’ and that the support for all three presidents is strong was evident in the massive crowd which still had to contend with airport-like security once they got to the theatre. The reward was finally to watch celebrities like Lizzo, Queen Latifah, Cynthia Erivo, Lea Michelle and Ben Platt perform before the three presidents came on. First Lady Jill Biden received a standing ovation as she said, “Nearly 50 years ago, Joe asked me to marry him. After I said yes, he said something that I will never forget. He said ‘Jill, I promise you, your life will never change’. Well, that, of course, turned out to be wildly untrue. Life has changed and our journey together has given us a beautiful family and extraordinary unforgettable experiences like tonight. Not in my wildest dreams did I ever think that I will be standing on stage at Radio City Music Hall in front of thousands of people to help re-elect my husband as president of the United States.”

House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries thanked everyone for their commitment to democracy. “Every single thing that we care about is on the ballot in November.” He referred to the economy, social security, Medicare, the Affordable Care Act, climate crisis, gun safety legislation and reproductive choices for women. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer listed the many accomplishments under Biden’s leadership, which included the largest infrastructure bill in decades creating hundreds of thousands of good jobs, the Public Safety Act and the legislation for environment and climate change.

Noted Indian-American actor and producer Mindy Kaling who was the host of the evening, said, “I don’t normally get asked to host political events like this.... It is such an honour to be in this room with so many rich people, people who paid up to $5,00,000 to be here. And I love that you are willing to spend money to reelect a president who has openly promised to raise your taxes!” There was wild applause as she added, “There are three living presidents in the building. If you say, ‘Mr President’, three people will answer.”

The Late Show host Stephen Colbert moderated the conversation with the three presidents. “This is such an exciting and rare occasion, three presidents have all come to New York, and not one of them is here to appear in court,” said Colbert.

There was standing ovation when the three presidents appeared on stage together, all dressed in suits and tie-less. “I think our democracy is at stake. It is not a joke,” said Biden, citing all the changes made by his immediate predecessor Donald Trump. “I think democracy is literally at stake…. A lot of things he is doing are so old, and out of shape. But I am really hopeful because I think we could fly this election and we are in a position where we can set the course for the next four or five, six decades. We are at an inflection point.”

Obama and Clinton talked about Biden’s many legislative and economic successes, given the difficult stage he had inherited from Trump. “Well, it is not just the negative case against the presumptive nominee on the other side, it is the positive case for somebody who has done an outstanding job,” said Obama. “The point is, our passions get stirred by what we are up against, and Joe is absolutely right, that we have got not just a nominee, but frankly, a party and an entire infrastructure that increasingly seems unconcerned with the essence of America, the idea of self-governance and the possibilities of us all cooperating and bridging our differences and moving forward. But we also have a positive story to tell about the future. And that is something that Joe Biden has worked on.... I expect him to continue to do that for the next four years, eight months.”

Even in the festive mood of the evening, the Palestinian crisis was quite evident in hundreds of protesters outside the theatre, and the proceedings were interrupted by hecklers who had to be removed from the theatre. All three presidents addressed the issue. Biden said the Arab countries, including Egypt, Jordan and Qatar, are prepared to fully recognise Israel for the first time, but there had to be a post-Gaza plan and also plans for a two-state solution.

“One of the realities of the presidency is that the world has a lot of joy and beauty, but it also has a lot of tragedy and cruelty and there is history there,” said Obama. “And you don’t start from scratch. And you don’t have neat, easy answers to really hard problems. And I think people... want to feel a certain purity in terms of how those decisions are made, but a president does not have that luxury. And so when you look at a situation like we are seeing in Gaza and in Israel and your heart breaks, initially for a massacre of unbelievable cruelty. It is also possible for us to say we unequivocally support the people of Israel and their ability to live and raise families and so forth. That is not an easy process. So here is the thing, you cannot just talk and not listen. It is important for us to understand that it is possible to have more clarity, and have deeply held beliefs, but still recognise that the world is complicated, and it is hard to solve these problems.... [Biden] has moral conviction and clarity, he is willing to acknowledge that the world is complicated. And then he is willing to listen to all sides in this debate.”

Clinton agreed with Obama’s views. “I believe that this is one of the most important reasons to reelect President Biden. Because he genuinely cares about preserving the existence of Israel and about giving the Palestinians a decent state of self-governance and the support they need for self-determination.”

Throughout the evening, Biden never mentioned the name of his presumptive opponent Trump, but almost every statement he made was a rebuttal to what life would be like for Americans if the former president returned to the White House. It was ironic that on the day of the celebratory fundraiser, he was the fourth president visiting New York, having come to a slain police officer’s funeral and to underscore the difference between himself and Biden. While Biden’s fundraiser raised $26 million, and his overall war chest is $155 million, the Trump finances are at $74 million. Again, while the Democratic fundraiser showed the unity and camaraderie among Biden and his two Democratic predecessors, the Republican Party appears divided. None of the past leaders of the party like former president George W. Bush, Trump’s own vice president Mike Pence or his cabinet colleague Nikki Haley support Trump, although he has a solid supporter base.

The Biden fundraiser ended with all three presidents donning Biden-type sunglasses and waving to the crowd. There is going to be a lot of action, all the way to November.

A day after the fundraiser, I spoke to Raj Goyle, who was one of the first Indian Americans to get elected to public office. He was a member of the Kansas house of representatives and a cofounder of the Indian American Impact Project. “It is going to be a very challenging environment for everyone, but the fundamentals of the electorate and the debate favour President Biden. As you look at the half a dozen battleground states, the president is well positioned to bring those voters home,” said Goyle. “For those in India, it is also important to note that this administration has been quite forward thinking on the bilateral relationship between US and India, and moreover, has been a thoughtful partner about how to achieve security and peace across the world, given the grave challenges we face.”

Lavina Melwani is a New York-based journalist who writes for several international magazines. She blogs at Lassi with Lavina.

donald-trump-s-anti-nato-rhetoric-could-force-europe-to-set-up-its-own-military-industrial-complex

Sat Feb 24 11:55:18 IST 2024

THE RUSSIAN WIDOW stood at the podium―bold, beautiful and brave in bereavement. Her husband, 47-year-old Alexei Navalny, a relentless opponent of President Vladimir Putin, lay dead in a freezing Siberian gulag. Instead of comforting her traumatised children in Moscow, she chose to speak to western leaders and generals attending the Munich Security Conference, the “Davos of Defence”. They gave a standing ovation before and after her impactful speech. Trembling with grief and fury, she said “I want Putin, his entourage, to know they will pay for what they have done. That day will come very soon.”

The curse of widows and orphans come true, so it is said. But geopolitics is such that Yulia’s wishes, however fervent, are unlikely to materialise anytime soon. Western leaders quickly blamed Putin for Navalny’s untimely death―many of Putin’s other opponents met untimely deaths, poisoned or “falling off” buildings. But piling more punishment on Putin is arguably pointless. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the west had imposed sanctions―spanning 18,000 measures―frozen assets worth $300 billion and amputated Russia from the global financial system. The west’s tool box of sanctions is emptying, but Russia’s war machine grinds on.

Oil at $80 a barrel fuels Putin’s war in Ukraine. This protracted war favours Russia, which has commandeered its heavy industry into domestic weapons production. Russia enjoys economic independence and manpower, the shortage of which is Ukraine’s big challenge. With over six million Ukrainians fleeing the country and nearly four million internal refugees, 25 per cent of Ukraine’s population is displaced. Russian occupation hampers Ukraine’s grain and steel exports. It also delays, if not aborts, Ukraine’s accession into NATO and the European Union.

Ukrainian stockpiles of artillery, aircraft and missiles have dwindled because of the west’s war fatigue and the Republicans thwarting the $60 billion aid to Ukraine in the US Congress. “The world has got rougher,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a staunch Ukraine supporter. Though wars rage in Gaza and Yemen, she meant Russia and the scary spectre of the United States as an undependable ally, more so if Donald Trump is re-elected president.

Trump’s bombast from a recent election rally shook Europe. He said he would “encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want” with NATO members who fail to spend 2 per cent of their GDP on defence. He has neither retracted nor apologised for shredding a foundational principle of NATO: the US must protect a NATO ally from attack.

In his first term as president, Trump had threatened to withdraw from NATO. He has now brazenly invited an attack on an ally. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that Trump’s comments undermined “all our security, including that of the US”. President Joe Biden called it dumb, shameful, dangerous and un-American. Critics, however, would argue that it is rather American to let down partners.

British journalist Alec Russell warned that Europeans would have to start planning for war without America. Von der Leyen announced Europe’s plans to do just that: “subsidise our own defence sector”. The world now confronts the birth of a second military-industrial complex (MIC), as if the one in the US has not done enough global damage. To build the MIC, the same emergency taxpayer model deployed to manufacture Covid vaccines will be used. Some European countries may oppose the plan, but defence manufacturers like France and Germany will push for it. So will east European NATO members who fear neighbouring Russia.

Last year, military experts mocked Russia’s decrepit war weaponry. Now there is a drumbeat of competitive scaremongering about an imminent “Russian attack” on a NATO country. It mimics the American MIC’s pressure tactics to invest more in defence. Said Andrew Cockburn, who authored a book on the American war machine, “It is no coincidence that we are now suddenly hearing about what terrible threats Russia and the Chinese hypersonic missiles are. They whip up fake threats.”

Citizens dislike diversion of government spending on health care, education and pensions into defence. After the Cold War ended, global defence expenditure fell. The funds earmarked for defence were spent on welfare, laying the foundation for Europe’s superb quality of life. But as taxpayers’ money is needed for developing the MIC, people need to feel the fear.

Real or perceived, threats enable governments to spend money on defence, as in Japan and Germany. Faced with a rising China threat, the “pacifist” Japanese government announced a five-year plan to increase defence expenditures by 60 per cent. Germany pledged an extra 5 per cent of its GDP to modernise its forces. Currently, Germany is the world’s worst-performing big economy and weak growth has pushed Germany, Japan and the UK into “technical recession”. Still, Germany, Britain and France are now in the forefront of weaponising Ukraine’s military.

Trump’s anti-NATO bluster is serious, but not catastrophic. Of 31 NATO countries, 18 will meet the 2 per cent defence expenditure target this year. Trump may be reelected, but the US has already signed agreements with Arctic-Nordic-Baltic countries, securing access to 35 military bases close to Russia’s border.

Northern Europe is the springboard for any confrontation between NATO and Russia. With its nuclear arsenal, the US remains Europe’s ultimate security guarantor. But the recent arrangements anticipate a future where north European countries assume greater responsibility for their own defence, enabling the US to shift its focus on containing China’s rise.

Announcing her decision to seek a second term from Munich, Von der Leyen said she would consolidate and fortify the EU’s defence industry. Business is big. Navalny’s doomed life ended, so did the applause for his grieving widow. Delegates returned to 21st century realpolitik: war is back! Half a century of peace that brought immense prosperity flickers like a blip in history.

political-analysts-in-russia-believe-that-alexei-navalny-s-death-would-not-tarnish-putin-s-reputation

Mon Feb 26 10:54:36 IST 2024

Alexei Navalny, probably the most famous critic of the Kremlin, died on February 16, in a high-security penal colony nicknamed ‘Polar Wolf’, located in the Yamalo-Nenets region, north of the Arctic Circle. Navalny was serving a 19-year sentence on charges of extremism since August 2023. Before his final incarceration, he had to face several other legal cases, sentences, home arrests and an episode of alleged poisoning in 2020.

Navalny led the Anti-Corruption Foundation, which he set up in 2011. The group was known for its videos on social media on the alleged riches of Russia’s top officials and billionaires. Russia designated it as an extremist organisation in 2021 and it was liquidated by the Moscow City Court. In 2022, when Navalny was already in jail, he announced the relaunch of the foundation, now international, with a funding of €50,000 that he got from the Sakharov Prize awarded by the European parliament.

While Navalny was popular across the world, it was different in his home country. His personality and views, his entire political career―something that skips the eye of outsiders―turned many people off in Russia. As a Russian journalist noted, “He was certainly far more popular and loved abroad than in Russia.”

Navalny was born in 1976 in the Moscow region to an army officer hailing from Ukraine―a village near Chernobyl―and a lab technician. He got his law degree from the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia in Moscow, and in 2001, he got a degree in finance from the Finance Academy under the Russian government.

Navalny entered politics in 2000 with the then vibrant, liberal Yabloko party. While at Yabloko, he met several activists who would later become prominent faces of Russian opposition, such as Ilya Yashin and Nikita Belykh. A year later, he was elected to the council of the Moscow branch of the party.

In 2007, Navalny founded the national-democratic movement called Narod, along with writer and former member of the National Bolshevik Party, Zakhar Prilepin (who was severely injured last year in an assassination attempt that Moscow has blamed on the United States and Ukraine), and former member of the Saint Petersburg legislative assembly, Sergey Gulyaev. One of the sponsors of the movement was Stanislav Belkovsky, once a mid-level Kremlin adviser and now a popular commentator for western media outlets, living in Israel. Navalny was soon expelled from Yabloko “for causing political damage to the party, in particular for nationalist activities”.

During this time, two notorious videos of Navalny campaigning for gun rights to fight Muslim migrants from former Soviet republics―he compared them to “cockroaches”―and advocating for deportation of “non-Russians” appeared. Narod’s activities soon came to a stop, but Navalny’s graph continued to rise. He chose an indirect political route by purchasing shares in state-owned companies and subsequently leveraging his shareholder status to raise concerns about mismanagement and corruption. Speaking to the Kommersant-Dengi magazine in 2009, Navalny explained his interest in politics: “Old opposition leaders are so irrelevant that a smart, young person will be noticed right away.”

Navalny’s career took a sharp turn in 2010. Upon the recommendation of three people who are some of the most prominent critics of the Kremlin (and are based outside Russia)―economist Sergei Guriev, journalist Yevgenia Albats and chess grandmaster-turned political activist Garry Kasparov―Navalny joined a six-month course at Yale University under the Yale World Fellows programme. “Alexei was a Yale World Fellow from the class of 2010, who embodied the ideals of the open society and dedicated his life to the pursuit of a better Russia,” wrote Emma Sky, director of the International Leadership Centre, Yale University, after Navalny’s death.

Navalny returned to Russia after the course. Months later, tens of thousands of people took to the streets in what the western media labelled as the “biggest protests of the Putin era”. The Bolotnaya protests, which denounced what demonstrators deemed as a flawed electoral process, represented a crucial juncture for both Russia’s opposition movement and the government’s stance towards street demonstrations. These protests would shape the trajectory of Russian politics for the following decade. That was also when Navalny began to gain attention from western leaders and media. To be sure, that was also the time when he would be noticed by Russians – polls showed awareness about Navalny increased from 6 per cent in April 2011 to 48 per cent in September 2014.

The timing of Navalny’s alleged killing―for which Russia and the west blame each other―appears suspicious. It came hours before Ukraine announced its withdrawal from the strategic eastern city of Avdiivka after several months of fighting. It also coincided with a US congressional vote on a $60 billion military package to Ukraine and with the Munich Security Conference where world leaders discussed Russia’s threat to the world, while keeping Moscow out. Navalny’s wife, Yulia Navalnaya, was in Munich, and she was swiftly given the stage to deliver a speech condemning Russian President Vladimir Putin. Two days later, she said she would continue her husband’s work and called on his supporters in Russia to join her in fighting Putin. She also said that their team knew why Navalny was killed by Putin, how it was executed, and that they would reveal the details.

The news of Navalny’s death came just a few days after American political commentator Tucker Carlson published his interview with Putin, making the Kremlin’s point of view accessible to western audiences. While Navalny’s death and the west’s reaction to it remained top news, many other important things were largely ignored by the world media, such as the trial of whistleblower journalist Julian Assange which began in London on February 20. Ahead of the hearing, Assange’s wife, Stella, said her husband would die if he was extradited to the US. The death of US-Chilean journalist, Gonzalo Lira, which took place in January, too, did not find much mention in the west. Lira died in an Ukrainian prison where he was kept after trying to flee to Europe.

Political analysts in Russia believe that Navalny’s passing, which came just a month before the elections in March, would not shift the political landscape in Russia or tarnish Putin’s reputation. This assertion is grounded in the perceived limited relevance of Navalny or any other liberal opposition figure in contemporary Russia.

Hours after Navalny’s death, a video surfaced online. It was first released by Russian security services in 2021. In the clip, allegedly taken in 2012, a person who looks like Navalny’s right-hand man Vladimir Ashurkov can be seen talking to a British intelligence officer. “If we had more money, we could expand our opportunities, of course. If somebody would spend a little money… $10 million-$20 million a year on supporting this, we would see a different picture,” he can be heard saying.

We may perhaps never know what happened in ‘Polar Wolf’, or who actually backed Navalny, but what he embodied was an image of the ‘ideal’ opposition leader―young, handsome, bold and supported by a loving wife and children. For some people, it was undeniably an attractive image.

But in reality, the complexities of Russia, its geographic, economic and geopolitical realities, require not just an image, but also a vision, a programme and skills, and also support from the established political system. Russia is not a marginal regional player where candidates can be placed, tried, and replaced at will. It is a nuclear power able to influence the global military, economic and strategic balance, even though the west still prefers to deny it.

While in jail, Navalny used to communicate with his supporters through social media posts delivered through his lawyers. His irony-filled posts on his life in prison encouraged people to not give up on making Russia a better place―a message relevant to many, irrespective of their political preferences. However, neither Navalny, nor the collective opposition, articulated the vision for Russia based on today’s realities that are different from those of 2021 and particularly those of 2011.

Navalny’s brand will remain alive long after his demise, but the alternative acceptable to Russia of 2024 and beyond has to emerge from within.

Ksenia Kondratieva, a journalist based in Saint Petersburg, works as India editor at rt.com.

artist-cum-scientist-priyanka-das-rajkakati-opens-up-about-her-interactions-with-modi-and-macron

Sat Feb 03 14:55:13 IST 2024

She is known to possess an empathetic mind of remarkable maturity that is far beyond her years. Priyanka Das Rajkakati, who is in her early 30s, remains rooted despite rubbing shoulders with the world’s best scientific minds. She was twice part of French President Emmanuel Macron’s team during interactions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. She says Macron is very warm, with a sharp wit and a great sense of humour. Having observed Modi and Macron from close quarters, Priyanka feels they share a sense of mutual trust, which has been a vital ingredient in the growing India-France bilateral partnership. The artist-cum-aerospace scientist―she loves the dual identity―gave Senior Special Correspondent Sanjib Kr Baruah an outsider’s ‘insider perspective’ of India-France relations.

My childhood was spent in Delhi, where I attended The Mother’s International School, immersed in Indo-French culture. It only felt natural to move to France in 2013 to pursue higher studies. I also had another agenda for choosing France: the freedom to chart out a career in both arts and science. Now, a decade later, French President Emmanuel Macron knows me by my name and is familiar with my work―an immensely validating experience as a cross-cultural, nomadic artist-scientist.

I was privileged to be seated close to President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the dining table during the Bastille Day celebrations in Paris last July. Then, this year for the Republic Day in India, I was grateful to have been invited back to be a part of an event with President Macron in Jaipur on January 25.

Meeting heads of state is always an interesting experience, like having the fourth wall broken in a film. As a scientist, while I do have to adopt a neutral, dispassionate stance, as an artist, I suppose I can permit myself to share my perspective of the human beings behind such positions of responsibility. Up close, President Macron is indeed very warm and seemingly curious about you, with a sharp wit and a great sense of humour. He offered to introduce me to Prime Minister Modi last year during the state dinner, and then proceeded to take my photo with the prime minister. It is a much-treasured possession.

In Jaipur this time, my role was to facilitate his interaction with a select group of bright students learning French and aspiring to go to France, and hearing him speak about me as someone who has charted out a successful career for herself in France was a very humbling experience. In fact, he not only remembered me from last year’s dinner, but also remembered the painting I had presented him then. Of course, on both occasions, I had made it a point to wear the traditional Assamese ‘mekhela saador’, which not only helped me represent my Assamese roots, but also helped me stand out.

Having seen from close quarters the president and the prime minister interacting with each other, one can easily sense their mutual trust, which has been a vital ingredient in the rapidly warming India-France bilateral relationship. Even the attitude of the French people towards India and Indians has changed dramatically in recent years. If it was all about India’s poverty in the past, now it is about the vibrancy of a youthful India receiving its due at the high table of the comity of nations.

This is especially important for people like me, trying to keep a foot in my country of origin and another where life has led me. It has not exactly been easy, to establish myself as an artist with a scientific background, but the challenge has indeed taken me to some interesting places. Being a part of some prestigious institutes has opened many doors for me. Hence, I am grateful for my education. After graduating in physics from St Stephen’s College in Delhi, I joined Ecole Polytechnique in Paris, where I studied computer science, and then finished with a PhD from ISAE-Supaero in aerospace engineering, both premier institutes in France.

On the side, I continued exploring projects through technology. I have been an artist in residence at space conferences, converting scientific research into tangible pieces of art, which can also be used by scientists as engaging, visual representations of their work. I have sent a piece of my artwork to space as part of the Moon Gallery project, with the aim of provoking thought about which earthian aspects should interplanetary societies of the future take with them.

Currently, I am working on an art-science initiative called RiVeins, where the hypothesis of my research is that merely developing technologies, such as for flood warning, is not sufficient if we do not consider the vulnerable human aspect in their design, and that art can be the perfect medium to close this growing gap between cutting-edge science and society. I am also working as the head of special projects for a French company called vorteX-io, which is developing an innovative and intelligent river forecasting service. I am leading the WHYLD (Worldwide Hydrological Large-scale Database) project, and I hope to eventually partner with entities in India to adapt such a system back home, especially in Assam. My parents are from some of Assam’s most flood-prone districts.

So basically, I am now at the crossroads of three identities―French, Indian and Assamese. And I am glad that India-France bilateral ties are at their best now.

former-high-commissioner-to-pakistan-ajay-bisaria-interview

Sat Jan 27 12:06:09 IST 2024

Exclusive Interview/ Ajay Bisaria, former high commissioner to Pakistan

AJAY BISARIA HAD just 72 hours to pack his bags and leave Islamabad. The Indian high commissioner to Pakistan was expelled by the host country in 2019―the fallout of India repealing Article 370, ending the special status for Jammu and Kashmir. The only other Indian high commissioner who had to leave Pakistan in a hurry was Vijay K. Nambiar, after the attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001. But Nambiar could even manage a round of golf before his departure. Bisaria did not have such luck. The difference, he writes, was that Nambiar was withdrawn by India, while he had his marching orders from the Pakistani government.

Bisaria’s book, Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic Relationship between India and Pakistan, is well researched and is full of interesting anecdotes. He reveals how G. Parthasarathy, the then high commissioner, had to answer prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s questions on old Hindi hits which were being belted out by the Punjab Police band in Lahore during the famous bus yatra by prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999. There is also the advice by former diplomat Satinder Lambah to never discuss Kashmir in Pakistan after 6pm. In an exclusive interview with THE WEEK, Bisaria speaks about the book, his experiences in Pakistan, Indian foreign policy and world politics. Excerpts:

Q/ Why the title Anger Management?

A/ It is a playful title. There is a serious undercurrent. There is a lot of anger, passion and hatred―from the time of partition, and its aftermath. [There is] anger about the four wars, about Kashmir, about territory, about Bangladesh, about Siachen. There is India’s anger about terrorism and Mumbai. The management is often in writings on Pakistan, on policy. People say it is about managing the relationship, which means there is no grand strategy to resolve this conundrum. What you really have is perhaps a way of tactical adjustments, so that it does not get worse, rather than a strategic reset, which says we can be like Germany and France. We do not talk of that model at all.

Q/ Can you describe your last few days in Pakistan?

A/ We did not anticipate this overreaction. We thought there will be a lot of anger, there will be a lot of rhetoric [over the abrogation of Article 370]. But it just seemed to run over. On August 7, 2019, we heard that they asked to close down the high commission. As I mentioned in the book, we were not sure that day whether they would say, ‘Let us break off diplomatic relations’, or ‘Shut down the mission and ask the Indians to leave’. Or they would simply downgrade the mission and throw out 50 per cent of our people. In the end, asking the high commissioner to leave was the least disruptive choice. The only question then was, how much time do I have? I had two chefs and a house, and my wife was not in town.

I had 72 hours, just about enough time to do some analysis and to pack up and leave. My whole exit was also something that had to be choreographed and planned because I did not want to end up being on the Wagah border, and a grandstanding happening about being allowed to leave or not. I just left quietly, taking a flight.

Q/ Do you feel that Imran Khan could have solved the problem if he did not overreact?

A/ Absolutely. Leadership matters―how leaders react, what they do, how they handle a sensitive issue, it matters. Imran Khan could have taken that view and not bang that door shut. Because at the same time, they were talking of geoeconomics and trying to find a modus vivendi with India. Imran’s phase was a wasted opportunity, because the army seemed to be going through a rethink about the India relationship. The army was telling us or was giving us the impression that Imran had run away with those talking points. He was taking them to such levels of public statements that it became very hard for anyone to roll back.

Q/ You also talk about a tipoff about an attack in Kashmir.

A/ It was from an ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) source about a possible Al Qaeda attack in Kashmir. This was related to Zakir Musa, a terrorist who had been killed. I mentioned this incident to illustrate the point that strange things have happened in this relationship. This is not for the first time that either of these (Indian and Pakistani) agencies would have informed each other [about]some bit of live intelligence of relevance. But also, with what happened at that point of time, we can only speculate that they did not want another Pulwama. They were trying to improve the atmospherics with India, particularly in the context of a possible meeting in Bishkek between Imran and Prime Minister Modi. I just use this episode to illustrate that not everything is one little narrative of complete hostility.

Q/ You talk about an incident where Manvendra Singh, former MP from Barmer, asked your help to transport the body of an old lady who had gone to visit her relatives in Pakistan and how you contacted the Pakistani civil society.

A/ What it represents is the latent goodwill in the relationship, which stems from these people-to-people connections, what we often call cultural intimacy. I also caution that we should not overstate the case, because we find public narratives and people-to-people relationship also often get poisoned by the official narrative, of extreme hatred. We should park it in our mind as an asset, something that can be deployed, because there is still a good deal of cultural intimacy even among people who don’t share the partition links.

Q/ Do you think that India and Pakistan can be like France and Germany someday?

A/ If you look at very long term, there is certainly a nonzero probability of the relationship becoming like France and Germany. But there are many hurdles. It can become way better. Or, worse? We could just muddle along, as we have been doing. Leadership is important and diplomacy is important. We need to be very consciously understanding this issue and creatively dealing with it.

Q/ You suggest a model where India engages the Pakistan army.

A/ I would certainly advocate policy where we followed twin tracks of active defence―where we have a lower tolerance of terrorism―and deal with it kinetically, in the sub-conventional space. We have an answer for it and we make the costs so high that the Pakistan establishment abandons what is called the strategic culture of jihadism. But accompanied by that we need flexible, creative and calibrated engagement. For instance, right now is not the right time to talk to Pakistan, because we don’t know whom to talk to till the elections are held. Within that, it is important to triangulate anything that we talk with the civilians, with the army, through whatever means―direct or indirect. We have seen the precedent of Sharif, [going it] alone. He [was] with Vajpayee on the Lahore bus yatra, and had invited Prime Minister Modi. But the army was not on board. So he could not deliver, and get the other stakeholders on board. This is the reason why I look at 2024 with some cautious optimism. We could have a political configuration starring Sharif, who would be backed this time by the army. If both Prime Minister Modi and Sharif are in their legacy terms, they might prefer to leave a legacy of peace, than one of war.

Q/ How do you look at Pakistan elections? Sharif has a starring role, but do you think that the army has fixed everything else with Imran so that it can possibly look at Sharif winning with legitimacy?

A/ They are certainly moving in that direction. But it is not an easy task. They like to do election engineering, but they have to do industrial scale management. If Imran’s cadres are to be believed, there is a 70 per cent to 80 per cent wave in his favour. That makes it harder to manage those election results.

They do typically some pre-election engineering, like they will have a few parties suddenly folding in and supporting Sharif. But their worry at this point is that Sharif has not captured the imagination [of the voters] even in Punjab the way they would have expected. There is a certain conversation going on, on postponing the elections. The mood generally is to have them done. [The process] to manage those elections so that the PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) and Imran are extinguished completely and [to launch] project Nawaz has begun.

Q/ What is it about Imran? How do you explain his popularity?

A/ Imran was too good to be true. He had charisma. Three successive army chiefs believed that they were wasting their time on Sharif and the Pakistan Peoples Party. [General] Bajwa believed in this project in the beginning very strongly. The problem is that Imran could not deliver on governance. On economic governance, he was quite a failure. Even on foreign policy, he created a big mess from their point of view, which made them want to step in. But most important, he pushed back on the army in its internal management of who would become the director-general of the ISI. All that added to the army saying that this was a mistake.

I recall when Imran was coming in, there were a lot of younger army officers apparently saying, ‘Be careful. He will, in a couple of years, develop a mind of his own, and he may want to take the country in a different direction.’ That was exactly what happened.

Q/ One of the factors that is going to affect the India-Pakistan relationship is geopolitics. The big power game has begun again. How do you see that panning out, especially with a belligerent China and the US?

A/ Major powers have always played a role. The current geopolitical challenge for Pakistan is happening against the backdrop of a severe economic crisis, accompanied by a security and political crisis. They are facing a global crisis with the US-China standoff, and [looking at] how to balance the two powers. They need both for economic sustenance. China can give direct loans and the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) investments. But the US is required for IMF loans. Since August 15, 2021 [and] the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, their geopolitical rents have dried up. [The rent for their] strategic location, which they used to earn through the Cold War, the Afghan war and the war on terror, has suddenly dried up. Pakistan is floundering. The central problem for them, apart from the Afghan crisis, is this need to balance the US and China.

Q/ Pakistan has always claimed strategic depth in Afghanistan. There is also the proxy war of the Khalistan in Canada.

A/ Afghanistan is certainly the bigger challenge, the biggest for Pakistan in a security sense. In the two years post August 2021, Pakistan’s central objectives were not met. The opposite happened. What did they expect with the Taliban? One, they recognise the Durand Line (Pakistan-Afghanistan) border and respect it. Second, they would control the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan) and not let them attack Pakistan. And third, keep the Indians out. On all three fronts, the Taliban has done the opposite. India has the coordination mission. They are not really throwing India out. From our point of view, Pakistan’s whole relevance to Afghanistan has gone down.

The Khalistani separatism and Pakistan’s support is well known, right from the 1970s. They use a low cost option of going to the diaspora communities and trying to radicalise them. A lot of them are invited to Pakistan. This is something that Pakistan does and will continue to do. We are aware of it, we need to keep watching it very carefully. In Canada, it also plays into the internal politics, less than, say in the US, Australia, Germany or the UK.

is-france-now-india-s-most-important-supplier-of-military-equipment

Sat Jan 13 12:43:08 IST 2024

On May 11, 1998, prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee gave the world a shock by announcing that India had exploded the nuclear bomb again. The tests were conducted in Pokhran, in the deserts of Rajasthan, where India tested its first nuclear device in 1974 under Indira Gandhi. The west, led by the United States, was furious and sanctions followed. But there was an exception. French president Jacques Chirac went against the western consensus and chose to pursue closer ties with India.

Cut to the present, when US President Joe Biden expressed his inability to attend the Republic Day celebrations as chief guest, there was no real panic in the corridors of the South Block. Because Indian diplomats knew that they could bank on the ever-dependable French. And Jawed Ashraf, the Indian ambassador in Paris, sprung into action.

Soon and sure enough, on December 22, President Emmanuel Macron took to X to confirm that he would be attending the Republic Day celebrations as chief guest. Less than seven months ago, on July 14, it was Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was the guest of honour at the Champs-Elysees in Paris during the Bastille Day celebrations, which, as the French national day, commemorates the storming of the Bastille prison in 1789 during the French Revolution.

That day, as Rafale fighters from the Indian Air Force flew overhead, Macron, with Modi at his side, said, “[India] is a giant in the history of the world which will have a determining role in our future.” Apart from telephonic interactions, the two leaders have met several times in the last two years―in Paris on an official visit by Modi in May 2022, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in November 2022, in Hiroshima in May 2023 during the G7 summit and during the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023. “With this new―and somewhat last-minute―visit to India, Macron intends to show his personal commitment to the bilateral partnership as well as the staunchness of France’s engagement with India,” said Isabelle Saint-Mezard, associate research fellow at the French think tank IFRI (French Institute of International Relations).

In the burgeoning India-France relationship, it is the defence vertical that leads the way, with France being a traditionally important supplier with a vibrant military production ecosystem on continental Europe and an increasingly aspirational India being a prominent buyer. The numbers speak for themselves. A March 2022 SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) report says that India’s share of arms import from Russia came down to 46 per cent in 2017-2021 from 69 per cent in 2012-2017. France, meanwhile, recorded an eleven-fold growth during the same period, making it India’s second-largest arms supplier after Russia.

Supporting the French quest to secure a key presence in the Indian market is the legacy factor. The state-of-the-art Rafale fighters follow a long line of French exports. There is the Mirage 2000 multirole fighter aircraft from the Dassault stable, the Chetak, Cheetah and Cheetal helicopters that have their origins in the French Alouette and Lama helicopters, the Scorpene submarines, diesel engines for submarines and ships, anti-submarine warfare sonars, radars and the Milan anti-tank missiles.

France was the first major western power to ink a long-term strategic partnership with India in the multipolar context, finalising the deal in 1998. Now French strike weapons like the R.550 Magic air-to-air missiles, Exocet anti-ship missiles, the MICA missile system, SCALP air-launched cruise missiles and the Hammer air-to-surface missiles are at the frontline of the Indian offensive armoury. India has recently placed orders for 26 naval variants of the Rafale fighter and three Scorpene class submarines. The new fighter jets will be for the naval air fleet onboard the aircraft carriers INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya.

As India is on a mission to broad-base its military sourcing, France, with its dependability, warm bilateral vibes and its arsenal of powerful and time-tested military systems, is an obvious choice to be a strategic partner. This is especially true as Russia, which has been New Delhi’s traditional partner for decades, is experiencing a major turmoil caused by the Ukraine war. India is also concerned about the burgeoning Sino-Russian ties, which have strengthened during the war.

India needs more platforms where nuclear systems can be mounted. With Sino-Indian ties at an all-time low, such systems are needed urgently for deterrence. Rafale jets can be made nuclear-weapons compliant more easily than US platforms as Washington often imposes restrictive clauses on using its platforms. India is also concerned that despite the growing ties with the US, Washington remains cagey about supplying its most modern platforms to Delhi. Not offering the F-35 fifth generation stealth fighter aircraft to India―when many countries across the world operate it―is just a case in point.

Following the mega military deals, India expects French support on critical geopolitical issues, including New Delhi’s long-pending demand for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Finally, India believes that strong ties with France offer it more space for pursuing a policy of ‘strategic autonomy’.

France, meanwhile, has recognised the evolving nature of the global order, which mandates a shift from the traditional focus on the Atlantic theatre to a bigger role for the Indo-Pacific. The US has already made the Indo-Pacific its key strategic priority in an attempt to check the growing Chinese influence in southeast Asia and the Pacific rim. India’s geographical position is of pivotal interest to the French in its quest to retain global relevance. “France sees India as a major partner at the bilateral, regional and global levels,” said Saint-Mezard. “At the bilateral level, the two states have built a high degree of mutual trust over the years. Their cooperation covers different areas, including that of military equipment and technology, which is deemed critical from a French point of view.”

The French economy is in bad shape. Macron hopes that an abiding relationship with the world’s biggest importer of weapon systems and one of the most promising economies in the world would offer a panacea from the economic woes. In that context, Macron’s visit―which is based on a realistic assessment of his country’s strategic, business, cultural and political interests―may be a harbinger of a much deeper French connection for India.

french-ambassador-to-india-thierry-mathou-interview

Sat Jan 13 12:40:03 IST 2024

Interview/ Thierry Mathou, French ambassador to India

How do you look at President Macron’s visit to India?

It is a historic visit that demonstrates the special character and deep mutual trust of India-France friendship. It comes a few months after Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Paris as guest of honour of France’s national day and will mark the sixth participation of France as guest of honour on India’s Republic Day―the highest for any nation. President Macron’s visit will also seal the ambitious renewal of the India-France strategic partnership that the two leaders decided on July 14 in Paris and give further impetus to our common goals under the three pillars of the Horizon 2047 Roadmap―partnership for security and sovereignty, partnership for the planet and partnership for the people.

India considers France a dependable friend. How does France view India?

France and India have always stood by each other, in good times and bad. This unwavering solidarity, combined with our common quest for strategic autonomy in a multipolar world, is what makes the time-tested relationship so unique. France sees India as a major, responsible power that has a key role to play in bridging divides and advancing solutions to global challenges. That is also why France has always supported a permanent seat for India at the UN Security Council.

Do you think there could be more areas of military convergence?

Defence cooperation is a long-standing pillar of our strategic partnership. France is committed to being India’s top partner in developing its strategic autonomy and working together on the technologies and capabilities of the future. The operational cooperation between our armed forces is also outstanding, with regular joint army, navy and air exercises that raise our level of interoperability and demonstrate our capacity to act together as net security providers in the Indo-Pacific.

why-maldives-has-much-more-to-gain-by-keeping-india-on-its-side

Sat Jan 13 12:36:05 IST 2024

THE MUIZZU GOVERNMENT in the Maldives seems to be getting into hot water as far as its relationship with India goes. Even before assuming office as president, Mohamed Muizzu was unambiguous about his alignment with China and his disdain for India. The relationship between the Maldives and India has since headed consistently southwards.

The latest in the series of overt contempt for India has been the derogatory comments made by three Maldivian deputy ministers against Prime Minister Narendra Modi after he visited Lakshadweep. To its credit, the Muizzu government promptly distanced itself from the comments and suspended the ministers. This was surprising, so I think there may have been some strong signalling by India.

The mocking ministers may have perceived Modi’s visit as part of an effort to develop Lakshadweep as a tourist destination rivalling the Maldives. Perhaps an insecurity complex kicked in, since development of Lakshadweep would have the potential to dent the tourism economy of the Maldives. While that would be some distance away, if India seriously applies its mind to develop world-class tourism in Lakshadweep, nobody can stop it from doing so, least of all the Maldives. There has been discussion about this in the past as well, but ecological considerations and concerns of the local population have held India back. It must be done soonest as it will transform the lives and economy of the Union territory.

Rewind a few weeks. Ever since Muizzu took up his presidency, there has been a clamour that Indian troops and military detachments leave the Maldives. The Indian military presence there is minimal, restricted to skeleton diplomatic staff, naval Dornier and advanced light helicopter (ALH) detachments, and a support team for the patrol craft gifted to the Maldivian Coast Guard. These can be pulled back very easily.

The Maldives has an exclusive economic zone of 9,23,322 square kilometres, and has neither the capability nor the capacity to monitor these vast sea areas. Hence, it was at the request of the Maldives that these bilateral security measures were adopted. It is also a manifestation of India’s ‘neighbourhood first’policy, which seeks to develop capability and capacity of smaller maritime neighbours to bridge their capability gaps and address their security concerns.

The Maldivian Coast Guard has learnt the ropes primarily from the Indian Navy. Till the time India gifted them a patrol craft, they operated only small inter-island speedboats that had very little capability to detect or intervene in an EEZ violation. Even with the availability of a patrol craft, violations further out to sea went undetected, resulting in blatant violation of the EEZ by poachers and trawlers of extra-regional countries. With joint patrols by the Maldivian Coast Guard and the Indian Navy, such violations started getting detected.

India also helped the Maldives to set up a coastal radar chain. Obviously, entities indulging in illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing did not like to be called out. It is my guess that these entities may have had a role to play in influencing Muizzu and his ilk.

It is no secret that China is deeply entrenched in the Maldives in various ways. The Chinese strategy of assisting small countries with mega projects and extracting long-term leverages is known as much to the Maldives as it is to other recipient nations. If such a system is acceptable to the recipient nations, India should have no problem, in principle.

To give the devil its due, China is known to deliver efficiently on promises and negotiate effectively with political dispensations on mega projects. Maybe India could take a page from the Chinese book as a lesson in efficiency. Trust-building is quite another thing, on which India places a premium. As an independent nation, the Maldives must make its choices; and these choices need not result in a zero-sum game between India and China.

There are three things that the Maldives government, whatever the political dispensation, would do well to recognise. First, the India of today is a different country. It is already the fifth largest economy in the world and on its way to becoming the third largest by the middle of the next decade. Its political, technological and economic heft will increase and create opportunities, not just for itself but also for its neighbours and partners. India’s rich and famous could easily be one of the largest sections of tourists visiting the Maldives and the number of American and European tourists could reduce over time.

Second, India is the most capable country in the region with every kind of facility that is lacking in our smaller neighbouring countries. Nationals from neighbouring countries flock to India for tourism, education, employment, medical care and pilgrimage. India has always been welcoming and open to such foreign nationals, but this open-heartedness must not be seen as a weakness. It takes just a piece of paper to create barriers to availing facilities in India. As mentioned earlier, this new India is quite a changed nation-state. The Maldives must weigh its options carefully.

Third, India is the closest maritime neighbour to the Maldives to its west. Male is an hour and a half away by air from Kochi. The distance by sea is less than 400 nautical miles, which is less than a day’s steaming distance by ships of the Indian Navy. In the case of a natural calamity or any other kind of crisis, India will always be the first responder. Ships, aircraft and people of the Indian armed forces will be the first to come to the aid of Maldivians.

Remember the December 2014 drinking water crisis in Male? It was the Indian Navy that ensured that Male did not run dry, while their distillation plants were being repaired. Should there be an emergency requiring relocation of climate refugees, where will the Maldivians go? And who will accept them?

Much thinking needs to be done before policy decisions are considered in India-Maldives relations. The Maldives has much more to gain by keeping India on its side―and much more to lose by queering the pitch.

The author is a former commander-in-chief of the Eastern Naval Command.

china-is-trying-aggressively-to-influence-the-outcome-of-the-january-13-elections-in-taiwan

Sat Jan 06 13:46:58 IST 2024

Vincent Chiang, 58, a marine officer-turned tour guide, has not explored the unique abundance of mighty mountains and pristine beaches dotting Taiwan’s coastline. Instead, he puts his visitors on a musical bus that plays Enigma’s ‘Return to Innocence’ (based on a native Taiwanese chant), taking them to ultra urban destinations like Taipei 101 that light up the island’s skyline and produce as many microchips that can power every iPad, iPhone and MacBook in the world.

The joyride is broken intermittently with Vincent pointing towards a big map inside the bus. “Even though Taiwan is full of mountains and beaches, those were out of bounds for a long, long time under martial law,” he said. “A lot of people of my generation can neither swim nor go hiking even today. Isn’t it ridiculous?”

As a boy growing up in Tainan, the oldest city on the island, Vincent promised family elders that he would neither swim nor hike lest he is mistaken for a dissident trying to flee. He kept his promise, but some others did not. In 1979, Justin Yifu Lin, who was doing his mandatory military service on Kinmen island, just off the mainland, dived into the sea and dramatically swam 2,000 metres to reach China. He wanted to escape the oppressive Kuomintang (KMT) regime founded by Chiang Kai-shek who retreated to Taiwan after his army’s defeat in the Chinese civil war in 1949. Building a new life in Beijing, Lin grew to become a chief economist at the World Bank. His story of defection continues to be a living example of the deep cross-strait divide and the claim of the islanders that China and Taiwan don’t belong to each other.

Lin can never return to Taiwan after he openly defected to the “enemy”. The Taiwanese defence ministry opts for a court martial and even death penalty for such acts. Taiwan remained under martial law for over three decades, the longest in the world (after Syria) under the KMT regime, till 1986. The period is known as the ‘White Terror’ with mass arrests, human rights violations and tales of suppression. Freedom came only in 1996 when Taiwan had its first democratic elections to make Lee Teng-hui, the first president to be born in Taiwan and the first to be directly elected. The people of Taiwan called him Mr Democracy. Since then, political choices of the islanders oscillate between two distinct identities―mainlanders and native Taiwanese.

On January 13, when Taiwan elects its new president and parliament amid rising threats about unification, the choice of the people will once again determine whether Taiwan can remain independent of Xi Jinping’s China. Identity remains an important issue in these elections, a three-cornered contest between the two established political parties―the Democratic Progressive Party and the KMT―and a new entrant, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).

“Dissimilar degrees of attachment to the island exists even today,” said Mumin Chen, a professor at the National Chung Hsing University in Taiwan, who now works at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre in New Delhi. “Earlier China wanted to earn the goodwill of the people of Taiwan. That is why it had a policy of appeasement when the KMT was in power between 2008 and 2016. But things have changed as the Chinese government under Xi feels that unification is a goal to achieve as soon as possible. China is losing patience and this has changed the nature of the relationship.”

Since a majority of Taiwan’s residents now consider themselves Taiwanese instead of Chinese, it becomes critical for the island to find a better way to coexist peacefully with China. “The DPP does not want a war with China, but it is keen to prepare itself to defend against any aggression. It feels that regional security and stability is its responsibility,” said Chen. “The party wants the global community to recognise Taiwan as an independent and a sovereign country.’’

The election campaign reflects the mood of the people. The islanders want to build their own submarines to defend against any military action that can take them back to Gestapo-style rule. Placards and billboards showing young Taiwanese on submarines have flooded the DPP campaign, creating a buzz in physical and online space.

“With Xi stating that resolving the Taiwan issue is an important goal, no matter which party is elected, it must face China’s powerful combination of military and political oppression,” said Shen Ming-sheh, acting deputy CEO of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research. “There must be sufficient high tech weapons and joint combat capabilities. If the number of submarines can be increased, it will be of great help in countering the blockade [of the Taiwan Strait].’’ Currently, Taiwan has a fleet of four submarines―two of them built in the 1980s by the Netherlands and two World War II vintage ones from the US. It is now building a series of indigenous submarines.

The DPP’s presidential candidate Lai Ching-te (also known as William Lai) has put defence preparedness on top of his list of priorities. The party is banking on the United States to augment Taiwan’s military prowess. The US has supplied at least 66 F-16Vs and is expected to send more advanced training fighter jets and 108 M1A2 tanks as part of an extensive military modernisation drive against the backdrop of the looming Chinese invasion.

There is a growing realisation that Taiwan’s own forces need to be combat ready, not just in sheer skill, but also in size. “If China invades on a large scale, it may mobilise three lakh to four lakh soldiers. Taiwan’s current military strength is insufficient, so the number of standing and reserve troops must be increased,” said Shen.

Military conscription is the key to Taiwan’s security and survival and it has become an important electoral issue. Lai wants to increase the mandatory military service from four months to a year. But the KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, a burly ex-police officer who serves as mayor of New Taipei City, has opposed the idea, saying war mongering can be dangerous. “We speak the same language and share the same history. Most of the people in Taiwan came directly from China in 1949. So, the relationship has never been cut off,” said Huang Yi-teng, director general of the KMT’s Evaluation and Discipline Committee. “The two areas are one cultural region in many ways.”

If the KMT takes pride in its leaders having “good neighbourly ties’’ with China that can benefit the people of Taiwan, the DPP boasts a winning combination of Lai for president and former de facto ambassador to the US, Hsiao Bi-khim, as his second-in-command. Hsiao is popularly known as the “cat warrior’’ who can counter China’s “wolf-warrior’’ diplomacy, with her delicate balancing act. “William is a heavyweight in Taiwan politics who rose from the ranks, while Hsiao was a diplomat in the US with a rooftop view. After her US posting, she returned to work at the grassroots level to build herself up in Taiwan politics,” said Andrea Yang, deputy secretary general of the DPP. Hsiao, who is a cat lover, is said to have mastered her political strategy by watching her four favourite feline pets. “They tread softly, but they are able to find the right positions of defence,’’ she was quoted as saying.

Huang said Taiwan’s historic relationship with the US had been beneficial, but also pointed towards the shift of power from the US to China. “The Americans are getting weaker and China has become more powerful. It is not a threat, but an opportunity for Taiwan,” he said. “We are neighbours, we ought to talk.” But Yang said China’s rise, which was not peaceful, was a threat not only to Taiwan, but to the entire Indo-Pacific region. “We need to continue to deter it,” she said.

The need for stability is driving the polls, and the next president’s primary task would be to maintain Taiwan’s tenuous “status quo’’ as much as possible. The islanders are in no mood to cut themselves off from the rest of the world by incurring China’s wrath. The memory of former US speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit in August 2022, which provoked China to send its warships and fighter jets across the strait, is still fresh. Though Lai and Hsiao are pragmatic leaders, they are seen as more pro-independence than incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen. This can be a trump card for China as it may find an excuse to ratchet up tensions if the DPP wins again. The worry within the DPP camp is that even if it wins the presidential elections, the KMT may get a majority in parliament, making it difficult to execute its flagship defence projects. The psychological warfare by China has impacted DPP’s political fortunes. While the party won a thumping majority in 2020, the KMT is giving it a tight fight this time. Both parties are wooing the diaspora voters as well, sending delegations to foreign countries with significant Taiwanese population.

Taiwan’s elections can be a case study of how campaigns in technologically advanced countries have moved to online spaces where mass propaganda of warring political parties can shape voters’ choices. “China is using TikTok to spread fake news and influence voters. We believe there is a cyber army behind it,” said Yang. But the KMT has a counter. “We see false information coming from many places all the time. It could come from mainland Chinese sources or our own citizens here in Taiwan,” said Chen-Dong Tso, foreign affairs adviser to the KMT presidential candidate.

But there is more to this than meets the eye. Lieutenant General Rajesh Pant (retd), former national cyber security coordinator to the Indian government who recently joined experts from the US and Taiwan in a trilateral initiative to deal with cyberattacks on democratic systems, said democracies in the Indo-Pacific region needed to effectively counter Chinese propaganda, manipulation of public opinion and disinformation, besides dealing with threats to critical infrastructure from cyber armies. This becomes particularly important in the run-up to the general elections in India and the US this year, he said.

What is novel about Taiwan’s polls this time is the presence of the new party, the TPP, launched four years ago by Ko Wen-je, a doctor who served as mayor of Taipei from 2014 to 2022. The fatigue with the two-party system is quite evident, and Ko is seen as a dark horse who is ambitious and opportunistic. “The TPP has beaten even the KMT in online campaign. Ko is trying to offer the best of both worlds and young voters are watching his online campaign without blinking,” said Rohan, who works at an Indian restaurant in Taipei.

Tien-sze Fang, deputy director of the Centre for India studies at the National Tsing Hua University in Taiwan, however, said that the position of Ko’s party was highly uncertain. “While advocating closer ties across the strait, he also mentions about adhering to the DPP’s policies, making his stand hard to predict,” said Fang. The KMT and the TPP might join forces to defeat the DPP, but both have refrained from revealing their cards.

“Transparency and fight against corruption are the key issues this time. The ruling party is [swamped by] corruption scandals and fake news. I am not saying that the TPP can wipe out corruption, but it will bring checks and balances. Ko is stressing on integrity to save democracy,” said Rong-I Arthur Hong, Ko’s adviser on security and defence issues.

China’s influence on Taiwan’s polls can be gauged from the fact that Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of the tech giant Foxconn, withdrew from the presidential race after initially opting to run. With entrenched business interests in China, Gou developed cold feet at the last moment. Beijing also sent tax authorities after him when he talked about his independent business policy. Others say he withdrew after failing to bring the KMT and the TPP together. Meanwhile, the KMT and the TPP have not ruled out a post-poll alliance to form the first coalition government in Taiwan’s history in case they can defeat the DPP.

China, meanwhile, seems to be going ahead with its plan to ratchet up tensions in the Indo-Pacific. After breaching the median line in the Taiwan Strait a hundredth time, it is picking up fights in the Philippine Sea as well. Recently, Chinese soldiers used water cannons on Philippine boats, prompting Manila to ask for F-16 fighter jets from the US.

Raoul Manuel, a young parliamentarian from the Philippines, said the Chinese presence had strengthened in the South China sea and its ships were blocking the movement of his country’s ships. “It has been established that the West Philippine Sea belongs to the Philippines and we have the right to sail our ships in our area,” he said. “China is even calling the Philippines an aggressor, when it is the other way around. The strategy of the Philippines is to address these concerns by implementing the Hague tribunal’s South China Sea ruling (which found that Chinese claims in the region lacked legal foundation) and the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).”

Seventy per cent of the world’s commercial shipping passes through the waterways around Taiwan. India, which has a border dispute with China, has military and geostrategic interests in deterring the dragon, making Taiwan its natural ally. “A threat to Taiwan means a threat to the entire Indo-Pacific, because it will have a ripple effect,” said Namrata Hasija, research fellow at the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, New Delhi. “If China invades Taiwan, two things will happen. First, it will be able to break this first island chain, and it is not going to stop there. If the US supremacy no longer exists, it will give China direct access to all its Pacific bases. It can aim for the East China Sea, then India, and then the whole region is Beijing’s.’’

It sounds a far-fetched proposition, but it remains a looming danger, nonetheless. Fang said upholding democracy in Taiwan would contribute to the formation of an ideal alliance between like-minded democracies such as Japan, India and Taiwan against any potential regional dominance from authoritarian regimes. “Economically, the partnership can help build a more resilient supply chain,” he said.

The democratisation story of any country is an example for the global community. More so, when it is the only Chinese-speaking democracy in the world bold enough to reject communist dictatorship.

taiwan-has-continued-to-uphold-democratic-principles

Sat Jan 06 13:03:27 IST 2024

Taiwan’s presidential elections have garnered international attention, not only because of their potential implications on the future of the country itself and the region, but also because of the inspiration they provide to the world. The democratic consolidation in Taiwan serves as a beacon of hope, showcasing the resilience of democracy in the face of geopolitical challenges and in the pursuit of a progressive and inclusive society.

Some 19.5 million Taiwanese voters will head to the polls on January 13 to elect their next president and 113 members of the Legislative Yuan, the highest lawmaking body in Taiwan. In the past 30 years, having held seven free and fair direct presidential elections, Taiwan has matured into a fully democratic country well recognised around the world.

Taiwan’s resilience in the face of external pressures also serves as an inspiration. Standing on the frontline against expanding authoritarianism, Taiwan has continued to uphold democratic principles and has resisted attempts to compromise its sovereignty in spite of longstanding diplomatic isolation and constant threats from an assertive neighbour. In the meantime, Taiwan has strived to strengthen its defence capabilities and democratic resilience while confronted by increasing threats like grey-zone campaigns, military intimidation, cyberattacks and information manipulation. As a consequence, the international community has come to appreciate how Taiwan’s citizens remain steadfast in their commitment to democratic values.

It is important to note that China’s ambitions, by no means limited to Taiwan, have expanded on the India-China border, in the Indian Ocean, South China Sea, East China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.

Taiwan is renowned both as a crucial hub for international transport and for the pivotal position it occupies in the global semiconductor supply chains. More than 50 per cent of the world’s freight passes through the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan produces 90 per cent of the advanced semiconductor chips used around the world. If Taiwan comes under attack, the global economy and security will likely suffer.

In recent years, China has used several pretexts to militarily intimidate Taiwan, posing a serious challenge to cross-strait and regional security and putting the international community on high alert. This year, a series of joint communiqués issued at bilateral or multilateral meetings such as the G7 summit, the US-Japan summit and the US-Japan-ROK (South Korea) summit at Camp David have all underscored the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

As such, we remain deeply appreciative of President Joe Biden’s reiteration that the US opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in California on November 15. President Biden emphasised that differences should be resolved peacefully as it is in the international community’s best interest to keep the region peaceful and stable.

As a responsible stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan will continue to work with all like-minded countries to defend the rules-based international order and ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific. I can therefore guarantee that the new administration after the January election in Taiwan will not deviate from the fundamental policy of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Over the years, Taiwan and India have nurtured a natural and reliable partnership. Ever since both countries established representation in each other’s capitals in 1995, bilateral relations have undergone massive transformation. Bilateral trade has grown more than nine-fold from $0.93 billion in 1995 to $8.4 billion in 2022. A total of 220 Taiwanese enterprises have set up business operations in India with an accumulated investment value of $4.2 billion. In the area of educational cooperation, 31 Taiwan Education Centres have been launched across Indian university campuses, attracting over 8,000 Indian students to take up Mandarin courses and to pursue further studies in Taiwan. In addition, Taiwan and India have made great strides in the field of science and technology, with 136 joint research projects successfully implemented since 2007.

I am also glad to note the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office (TECO) in Mumbai is scheduled to open as part of our ongoing efforts to facilitate bilateral exchanges with west India. Moreover, three retired Indian service chiefs visited Taiwan in August to take part in the Ketagalan Forum to discuss defence and security issues in the Indo-Pacific.

I am pleased to highlight External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s remarks in November recognising Taiwan’s achievement in electronics and semiconductors as well as India’s substantial technology, economic and commercial relations with Taiwan. It is clear that our two countries can jointly make greater contributions to a free, open and resilient Indo-Pacific region.

Taiwan’s elections are not only a critical watershed choice of resilience of democracy versus autocracy, but are also likely to have a significant impact on the future dynamics of Taiwan-India relations. The shared commitment to democratic values, economic collaboration and strategic cooperation make our two nations natural partners in the evolving global landscape.

―The author is Taiwan’s representative to India.

andrea-yi-shan-yang-taiwan-democratic-progressive-party-interview

Wed Jan 10 12:53:43 IST 2024

As the world faces two major conflicts―the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war―Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is worried about the possibility of a third one, with China's constant threats against the island. Speaking exclusively with THE WEEK, the DPP's deputy secretary-general Andrea Yang said it was time Taiwan built its own weapons and military equipment to defend itself. Excerpts from the interview:

Q Are this year’s elections a choice between war and peace in Taiwan?

A Taiwan never really supports any military action with China. It is always China that is using military reasons to jeopardise bilateral relations. The Kuomintang (KMT) is a traditionally pro-China political party, so it says that voting for the DPP is equivalent to going to war. But we continue to emphasise the importance of open dialogue and communication. China, however, wants to implement the so called “one country, two systems’’ model in Taiwan, just like it did in Hong Kong. But we are a sovereign country and we try to uphold our democracy. The Taiwanese people demonstrated this in the 2020 presidential elections when they voted to protect our sovereignty and democracy. Once again there is the need to tell China and the rest of the world that upholding democracy in Taiwan is important.

Q Have election campaigns have moved more into the online space rather than physical?

A It is definitely a trend and we believe that more and more people would not rely on information from traditional mass media. So, the modern politicians really need to learn how to communicate effectively with the users, the voters and their supporters online. And this is something that we all sort of knew can happen (with advancement of technology) but we didn't know how quickly it will change. We could not really predict how fast it's moved around.

Q There are concerns about Chinese interference in the elections.

A China has tried to intervene in Taiwan's elections ever since our first presidential elections in 1996. But their strategy is changing. They are trying to use disinformation and misinformation to influence people's understanding towards China and cross-strait relations. Taiwan is a free country and we cannot ban apps like TikTok. Our younger generation relies on the Chinese app for entertainment. Political messages are being inserted on such platforms and those are also being spread through different chat groups. If you are not careful, you would be easily manipulated by sensational messages, such as the DPP is encouraging people to arm themselves and prepare for war.

Q Is the DPP open to having a dialogue with China and will be it based on the 1992 Consensus?

A Of course, we are open for a dialogue with China but there shouldn't be any preconditions set. The 1992 Consensus is actually a “created” consensus made up by the KMT, and both the KMT and China have different versions of it. This is very confusing. If there is a consensus, there shouldn't be multiple versions, not to mention there is no written document in this case. So, it's almost like a phantom above Taiwan's politics when it comes to cross-Strait issues. The KMT has been using the 1992 Consensus as a convenient excuse and in our belief the original version of 1992 Consensus is that Taiwan and China, or Republic of China and People's Republic of China - doesn’t matter what term we use - both have an understanding of what one China should be. There is a room for discussion. But China's version of 1992 Consensus is that there is only one China and no room for Republic of China.

Q The world is worried about a third war breaking out in the Taiwan Strait after the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war.

A The two wars have shocked people who were optimistic about world peace. Yes, there is worry about whether the Taiwan Strait would be a third place for war. And that is why we are attracting so much attention from different countries. But the big question is, is it good for China to initiate military action against Taiwan? I think the consequences will be huge for China because the free democratic world will go against it. So if Xi Jinping wants to be the enemy of the entire world, then he would do that. But it is unlikely that he would choose to initiate irrational action at this point, given the economic downturn in China. When Xi met Joe Biden in San Francisco in November, he denied having any knowledge about the timeline of an invasion or war in 2027 or 2049. Some reports even suggested that Xi got emotional, claiming that he never heard of such a thing. It seems Xi is trying to be a great leader for China, but his ambitions have slowed down. Neighbouring countries like Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Australia are not happy with China as they are worried about its potential irrational actions. At this point, we feel Xi will really need to evaluate the consequences of initiating a war that he will not be able to end.

Q What kind of defence strategy does Taiwan need to prepare itself against possible Chinese invasion?

A In terms of external relations, incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen outlined four commitments - that the Republic of China and People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other; upholding free and democratic constitutional system; resisting annexation or encroachment upon sovereignty and the future of Taiwan being determined by Taiwanese themselves. She has tried to maximise the interest of Republic of China and also Taiwan.

The presidential candidate of DPP, Lai Ching-te (William), has brought out four pillars for Taiwan’s security. He has said that firstly we need to strengthen our defence capabilities; strengthen our democracy and improve our economic security. We are also open to dialogue with China. So, we are emphasising the importance of keeping ourselves secure by increasing our defence budgets, making our own weapons and military equipment, including submarines.

While we purchase weapons from countries like United States, there is a need for self preparation to show the world that we are willing to protect ourselves. Of course, we cannot survive without other countries' help and need to have close relations with like-minded countries. In recent years, both US and Japan are emphasising on stronger ties with Indo-Pacific countries. The Biden administration invited South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines to Washington D.C this year. President Biden also visited Vietnam. So, if we see the efforts made by these countries and the historic rise in their defence budgets, it shows the worry of China’s unpeaceful rise and ambitions and we need to continue to deter it.

We are also telling people about Taiwan’s important strategic and geopolitical position and that no one in the world can afford to lose Taiwan to China. More than 50 per cent of the commercial ships go through Taiwan Strait and this place is full of economic interest to the world. So, if China attacks Taiwan, the entire world will suffer.

communist-system-should-not-be-applied-to-taiwan

Wed Jan 10 12:37:46 IST 2024

There is excitement in the Kuomintang party (KMT) about resuming dialogue with China and improving the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Chen-Dong Tso, foreign affairs adviser to KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, told THE WEEK that the party had prepared a blueprint for resuming the peace process. He said the KMT was committed to protecting Taiwan's sovereignty and its democratic system. Excerpts from the interview:

Q What are the KMT's plans to manage tensions with China?

A During the DPP rule under President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan has been on the brink of war and we have seen a constant increase in Chinese military provocation. Chinese fighter jets and warships crossed the median line and also entered Taiwan's air defence identification zone. Chinese military exercises and provocations have raised eyebrows around the world as they indicate that a war is becoming imminent. Of course, the KMT politicians understand that the tensions are caused by Chinese provocation, but at the same time, there can be certain factors that aggravate the problem, especially as both sides do not have an open line of communication under the DPP rule.

On the other hand, KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih has a plan to restart the cross-strait dialogue on a model of “mutual non-recognition of sovereignty and mutual non-denial of authority to govern”. We are hopeful that tensions across the Taiwan Strait can be lowered and both sides can find ways to avoid accidents and any conflict in the future.

Q What will be the basis of the cross-strait dialogue?

A In November 1992, the Taiwan government and China government came to the final stage of negotiation on how to express the concept of “one China’’. There are written documents of the 1992 Consensus in the form of exchanged letters. The ROC government then proposed to verbally express the concept of “one China’’, saying that both sides adhere to one China but have a different understanding of what it means. So, the 1992 Consensus definitely has a role to play when both sides decide to restart dialogue. It worked during the previous administrations when both sides continued dialogue for 16 years. So, I think it can still work. The KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih has said that he supports the 1992 Consensus consistent with the ROC constitution. This is very important as I feel the ROC constitution can function as the basis for both sides to shelve differences and seek common ground.

Q How do you see the future of Taiwan under the KMT? There is speculation about a soft merger with China.

A The approach that our candidate Hou takes is to lower the temperature across the Taiwan Strait step by step. He hopes that the official dialogue can be resumed, but he also understands that it is not possible to immediately return to the era of former president Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT. The goal can be to enhance people-to-people exchange and cultural, religious as well as academic ties so that both sides understand each other better. The third step would then be to restart functional cooperation by expressing goodwill for each other and building confidence in each other. This is what the candidate calls the de-escalation stage. Hou cherishes the common culture, language and shared history with China and it is our hope that both sides can find ways to solve the differences.

Q You talked about similarities. But how is Taiwan different from the Chinese system?

A Taiwan has a political system which is democratic and protects personal freedom. I think there is a high degree of consensus among Taiwanese people that the communist political system of mainland China should not be applied to Taiwan. Candidate Hou stays committed to protecting the sovereignty of Taiwan and its free and democratic system. He opposes China’s attempt to absorb Taiwan under the formula of “one country, two systems” and upholds the view that Taiwan’s future will be determined only by its people.

Q What is the KMT’s approach towards the security of the Indo-Pacific region in the face of growing threats from the Chinese expansionist policy?

A Candidate Hou is looking at the possibility of including the Indo-Pacific as a pillar of foreign policy to build a common vision and a good neighbourly policy with countries like Japan, South Korea and India. Ma Ying-Jeou was the last Taiwanese president to visit India. I hope that KMT leaders can pay a visit to India in the near future after the elections.

Q The KMT has been sending delegations to China, and even as we speak, KMT leaders are in China. What is the agenda?

A All parties, including DPP, have sent delegations all over the world calling overseas voters to come back to Taiwan to vote. In the 2020 presidential election, the administration even provided some incentives for the overseas Taiwanese to return home to vote. So, you can see how every vote counts. This is the reason why KMT also sent delegations all over the world, including mainland China. For Taiwanese people residing in mainland China, it takes just two hours or even less to travel back home. So, if they can come back, you can imagine the number of voters could be higher than those from US and Europe.

Q Do you agree a misinformation campaign is being run by China to influence the polls in Taiwan?

A We see false information coming from many places all the time; it could come from Mainland Chinese sources or our own citizens here in Taiwan. What worries me is that our government sometimes uses Mainland Chinese fake news as an excuse for their shoddy handling of issues of public concern. So, we all have to be careful not to allow any actions that can destroy the public's trust in the government. We need to be careful before we label any fake news as Mainland Chinese propaganda. As far as the US is concerned, it is their stated position that it will not interfere in Taiwan's election and it has also said it wants all stakeholders not to interfere in the elections.

taiwan-network-information-centre-ceo-kenny-huang-interview

Wed Jan 10 13:47:24 IST 2024

On December 12, representatives of India, the United States and Taiwan met in New Delhi, for closed-door discussions on the challenge of cyberattacks on democratic systems, as the three countries are holding general elections in 2024. Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, said technical collaboration was essential to safeguard cyberspace in all three countries. Kenny Huang, CEO of the Taiwan Network Information Centre under the ministry of digital affairs in Taipei, has been on the job ever since. Huang is trying to cement the collaboration between the three countries to defend against a common threat factor―China’s covert cyber warriors.

Being cross-strait neighbours, Taiwan holds the key to some secrets of China, not so well known to militaries in other countries. One such secret is the swift advancement of the People’s Liberation Army in developing advanced cyber weapons that can ‘seize control’ of enemy satellites and threaten to disrupt global communication, navigation and surveillance systems. “The consequences may extend to the manipulation or disabling of crucial infrastructure, including GPS navigation, weather monitoring, communication networks and compromising military surveillance,” said Huang in an exclusive interview. Excerpts:

Q What kind of cyber threat is Taiwan facing from China?

A China poses a significant cyber threat to Taiwan across its military branches. China has developed advanced cyber capabilities in the air force, navy, ground force and rocket force. These capabilities target communication systems, intelligence networks and command structures, potentially disrupting air, naval and ground operations. In the rocket force, cyber tools may aim to secure and disrupt missile defence systems. China integrates cyber capabilities into its broader military strategy, emphasising information warfare. This comprehensive approach includes both offensive cyber operations and defence against potential cyber threats. Taiwan must prioritise cyber security measures to protect against these persistent and sophisticated cyber threats from China. Enhancing defences across air, naval, ground and rocket forces is crucial for safeguarding Taiwan’s military capabilities in the face of evolving cyber challenges posed by China.

Q What do you know about Unit 61398 of the PLA?

A Unit 61398 is a covert cyber unit within the PLA, suspected of participating in cyber espionage and attacks. It is situated in Shanghai’s Pudong district. Specifics about the unit’s strength are undisclosed because of the secretive nature of its operations. However, it reportedly consists of experts involved in hacking and technical operations.

The unit is implicated in stealing sensitive information, conducting economic espionage and launching cyberattacks with potential geopolitical consequences. One extensively reported case involves its alleged participation in cyber intrusions, notably against entities in the United States. These operations are aimed at extracting intellectual property, sensitive data and proprietary information, linking the unit to attacks on sectors like technology, defence and health care.

Q When did China setup the covert cyber unit and what kind of operations has it conducted worldwide till now?

A Established in the early 2000s, Unit 61398 has been connected to various global cyber operations. Noteworthy instances include cyber-espionage campaigns targeting governments, corporations, and critical infrastructure. The unit is implicated in stealing sensitive information, conducting economic espionage, and launching cyber-attacks with potential geopolitical consequences. One extensively reported case involves the alleged participation of Unit 61398 in cyber intrusions, notably against entities in the United States. These operations aimed to extract intellectual property, sensitive data, and proprietary information, linking the unit to attacks on sectors like technology, defence, and healthcare. Unit 61398's operations highlight the changing landscape of state-sponsored cyber threats and emphasise the strategic importance of cyber capabilities in geopolitical affairs.

Q There is worry that China has the capability to jam communications and intelligence satellites.

A In case of military strikes on Taiwan, reports suggest that China might employ tactics to disrupt communication and intelligence satellites. This could involve jamming signals, rendering communication systems ineffective, and impairing intelligence-gathering capabilities. Additionally, there are concerns that China might target ballistic missile early warning satellites, which play a crucial role in detecting and tracking missile launches. These actions align with a broader strategy to disrupt the communication and surveillance infrastructure that is vital for military operations. Disabling satellites could hinder Taiwan’s ability to coordinate defences, share critical information and monitor potential missile threats. As such, safeguarding satellite capabilities and developing countermeasures against potential interference would be crucial elements of Taiwan’s defence strategy in the event of heightened tensions or military actions in the region.

Q What kind of chaos can be expected if China ‘seizes control’ of enemy satellites?

A If successful, this could disrupt global communication, navigation and surveillance systems, impacting both military and civilian operations. The consequences may extend to the manipulation or disabling of crucial infrastructure, including GPS navigation, weather monitoring and communication networks. In a worst-case scenario, these cyber capabilities could be exploited to interfere with essential services like financial transactions, air traffic control and emergency response systems. Such control over satellites could also jeopardise national security by compromising military surveillance and intelligence-gathering capabilities. This highlights the urgent need for international collaboration and robust cyber security measures to safeguard satellite infrastructure, ensuring the continued functioning of critical systems on a global scale.

Q Taiwan has accused China of information warfare ahead of presidential elections. What kind of threats have you faced?

A Taiwan faces a range of cyber threats, primarily emanating from China, ahead of elections. These threats include phishing attacks, distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks, and advanced persistent threats (APTs). Phishing attempts often target political figures, government officials, and organisations, seeking unauthorised access to sensitive information. DDoS attacks aim to disrupt critical online infrastructure, while APTs involve sophisticated, long-term infiltration for intelligence gathering or influence campaigns. The frequency of cyber attacks varies, and tracking an exact daily or monthly count can be challenging due to the evolving nature of cyber threats. Monitoring and incident response teams are actively engaged in identifying, mitigating, and analysing these attacks. Continuous vigilance is essential, and collaboration with international cybersecurity entities is crucial.

Q What lessons can be drawn from the Russia-Ukraine war, the first hybrid war the world has seen?

A It teaches us valuable lessons about the effectiveness of hybrid warfare, combining traditional military actions with cyber operations and information warfare. It underscores the need to address both conventional and non-traditional threats in modern conflicts. The war showed that countries should be ready to handle a mix of military, cyber and information threats. The lessons emphasise the importance of being resilient against different kinds of challenges, such as cyberattacks and misinformation. It also highlights the need for nations to update their military strategies to adapt to the changing nature of conflicts in today’s world. The Russia-Ukraine war serves as a contemporary example that prompts countries to take a more comprehensive and flexible approach to national security.

Q In what way can China discredit the democratic process?

A There is a real worry about China trying to influence Taiwan’s elections either by favouring a specific party or spreading misinformation to discredit the democratic process. China’s motives seem quite complex. One possibility is that China wants a party in Taiwan that aligns with its goals, like supporting reunification. By influencing the election in favour of such a party, China could advance its own interests. Another concern is that China might aim to undermine trust in the democratic process itself. This could involve spreading false information, casting doubt on the fairness of the elections, or questioning the legitimacy of candidates. The goal here is to create instability and shake people’s confidence in Taiwanese politicians and the democratic system.

why-ukrainians-must-win-the-war-before-holding-elections

Mon Jan 08 14:00:22 IST 2024

ZOYA PAVLIVNA SOKOLENKO, a 61-year-old mathematics teacher and director of a secondary school in Kharkiv, Ukraine, exclaims: “Elections? Are you serious?” I had just asked her what she thinks of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement in August that Ukraine could hold elections in 2024, provided that the money for it does not come from the war budget.

Zelensky wanted to not just dispel the assumption of his opponents that he would hold on to power using the war as a reason, but also prove his determination to win the war. Presidential elections are due in March, and parliamentary polls in autumn 2024. But martial law, which is now in effect in Ukraine, does not allow elections to be held. Article 83 of the Ukrainian constitution prohibits the dissolution of parliament when martial law is in effect, and Article 64 restricts certain rights and freedoms.

“There is a full-scale war going on,” Zoya Pavlivna tells me. “More than eight million Ukrainians have fled their homes. Tens and thousands have been killed in 600-plus days of war. Missiles and drones can strike any corner of Ukraine any moment. Almost 20 per cent of the territory is occupied by Russia. Organising elections demands, first and foremost, peace.”

And this is the time of war, not peace. “Oh! Hear the siren? Let’s go to the shelter,” says Zoya Pavlivna. “Will Ukraine be the first country to hold elections in bunkers?”

According to a recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 80 per cent of Ukrainians are against holding elections when the war is still on. So why the fuss at the top level? Because, during his visit to Kyiv last August, American senator Lindsay Graham said Ukraine needed to show that it was different by holding wartime elections. Interestingly, the Republican senator, accompanied by his Democrat colleagues Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal, made the statement during a briefing from a bunker in Kyiv.

In response, Zelensky said he agreed with Graham, but he would not take the money for “weapons and give it to elections”. Let the US and Europe take full financial responsibility, he said. Observers, he added, should be sent to the trenches to ensure that soldiers fighting to protect Ukraine’s democracy could exercise their fundamental right to vote. A candid and befitting response, certainly.

Zoya Pavlivna’s life has been in tandem with elections since she started working at the Kharkiv school in 1999. In Ukraine, elections are usually held on school premises and halls on Sundays. After she became the school’s director, she took on greater responsibilities―tidying up the rooms, arranging furniture, setting up polling booths, organising people, coordinating with the territorial representative of Ukraine’s Central Election Commission and ensuring secrecy of ballot.

Zoya Pavlivna says she was proud of working to “honour the choice of the people”. Today, Russian missile attacks have left her school in ruins. She was evacuated to Romania, where she worked as a babysitter, but returned to Ukraine. Today, she teaches mathematics in a school in Chernivtsi.

“We Ukrainians have changed presidents five times since 1991, while Belarus has had the same president for the past 30 years, and [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin has been holding office since 2000, except for a short gap from 2008 to 2012. People like to have their say in Ukraine,” she says.

As a UN observer, I have seen many elections, including special polling stations, such as prisons, hospitals and military barracks since the late 1990s. Indeed, Ukrainian elections are epoch-making, bringing serious changes, catapulting new faces into politics, although imperfections in party formation, functioning, equal access to media and electoral funding remain.

The rebirth of Ukraine as a sovereign state started with a referendum on December 1, 1991, in which 92.3 per cent of Ukrainians voted for independence and elected Leonid Kravchuk as president. In the 1994 presidential polls, Leonid Kuchma beat Kravchuk. The 1998 parliamentary polls saw the emergence of a multi-party, but oligarchic, system that was consolidated by Kuchma, who was reelected in 1999 amid concerns of rigging. The president’s need for a loyal parliament led to the managing of parties through oligarchs. The degree of presidential control, however, had been decreasing over the past decades gradually.

Russia never missed any opportunity to have a candidate loyal to the Kremlin in Ukraine. “The poisoning of presidential candidate Victor Yushchenko in 2004, and the subsequent massive rigging of elections, were covert operations of the Kremlin,” says Zoya Pavlivna. “Putin congratulated his favourite, Victor Yanukovych, even before the results were announced. People rose in protests and forced the authorities to ensure a fair election.”

Since then, brazen rigging is not usual in Ukrainian elections. In 2010, Ukrainians voted Yanukovych to power. Though seen as a pro-Russian, he pledged to sign an association agreement with the European Union. But he backed out under duress from Putin, and faced another uprising―the Revolution of Dignity. He abandoned office and fled to Russia in 2014. For Russia, the stakes became so high that it occupied Crimea and started covert warfare in Donbas.

The presidential and parliamentary elections in both 2014 and 2019 were freer and fairer than previous ones. The crucial point is, Ukraine remains a democracy committed to free speech and choice.

But attempting elections now would be unfair. More than 100 organisations recently signed a petition against holding wartime elections. Said Olha Aivazovska, author of the petition and Ukraine’s top election expert: “Ukrainians are very sensitive to double standards. Polls now will neither be free nor fair, and will destabilise the country and offer ways for Russia to be more aggressive.” Ukrainians are more worried about Russia organising its presidential elections on the occupied territories of Ukraine, intimidating and using people as electoral fodder.

Listening to many others like Zoya Pavlivna, I saw solid unity on this issue. When politicians across the world think of winning elections, politicians in Ukraine are, in unison, thinking of winning not the elections, but the brutal, genocidal war on their country.

Mridula Ghosh, formerly with the UN, is based in Kyiv, and teaches at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy.

nepal-s-first-same-sex-marriage

Fri Dec 15 19:26:11 IST 2023

“We want to invite the rainbow community in Nepal to come out in the open and join our steps to get married as same-sex couples. We also want the global rainbow community to visit Nepal,” said Maya Gurung and Surendra Pandey, the couple that made history on November 27 by registering the first same-sex marriage in Nepal. Taiwan is the only other country in Asia that has legalised same-sex marriage. Returning from their honeymoon, the couple said they were promoting same-sex marriage not only for Nepalis, but for the rainbow community all over the world with the help of an NGO called Mayako Pahichan (identity of love).

Born Ram Bahadur Gurung to Harimaya and Kul Bahadur Gurung in 1985 in the picturesque district of Lamjung in western Nepal, Maya returned 38 years later as a trans woman to register her marriage with 27-year-old Surendra. Several glass ceilings were broken in this marriage, including gender, caste and age and the local community accepted it and celebrated it with a lot of fanfare.

In the Gurung community there is a traditional folk dance called Maruni in which men dress as women. “I always used to be selected as a Maruni dancer and was taken to perform in Kathmandu, and while dancing I felt like I was a woman. But I realised that I was indeed a woman only after I ran away during one of the performances,” said Maya. She now identifies as a trans woman, but has not changed her gender on official documents. Before becoming Maya, she worked in several restaurants in Kathmandu, making tea and washing dishes. Finally, at the age of 13, she started meeting people who had similar feelings as her and this was when she confirmed her identity as a trans woman.

Maya met Surendra, eight years younger, in Kawasoti, Nawalparasi district, in 2015. Surendra was born a male and identifies as gay. After losing his parents at the age of six, he grew up in an orphanage and had to stop his education after grade 10. “I grew up without love and care, and when I met Maya, we shared a lot of difficulties life had thrown our way. I fell for her,” said Surendra, who works as a plumber. He said he had known about the transgender community, watching them perform during the Biswokarma puja, but came to realise about his identity only after meeting Maya. They rented a room in Kawasoti and stayed there for eight months before moving to Kathmandu. As Maya was known for her activism for the sexual minority in Kathmandu, they had support from the community there.

Two years after their meeting, Maya and Surendra got married in a religious function at a temple with the help of friends. The wedding took place on October 13, 2017, which coincided with Maya and Surendra’s birthday. They tried to register their marriage at the district court in Kathmandu, but got rejected despite the Nepal supreme court’s order that directed the government to register such unions. They continued to seek legal sanctity to their marriage and, finally, on November 27, their marriage was legally registered at the Dordi rural municipality office at Lamjung.

“Although marriage is still defined as a union of male and female in the civil court, Article 18 of the constitution of Nepal guarantees equal rights to the sexual minority in the country and Article 18(3) mentions that the state can make special provisions for them based on which the supreme court gave a verdict in 2007 to recognise same sex marriage,” said senior advocate Dinesh Tripathi. He said the registration of the same sex marriage was legally binding and, although laws regarding such marriages were not yet formulated, Article 16 of the constitution guaranteed all citizens a life of dignity. There could be issues related to adoption, divorce and property rights, for which laws have to be amended. Tripathi said right to equality was among the cardinal principles of human rights, and as Nepal was a signatory to several human rights treaties, it was now the government’s responsibility to ensure the rights of same-sex couples who had registered their marriages. The constitution recognises the status of the third gender and allows Nepali citizens to identify themselves as male, female or other. Nepal is one of the few countries to have this option at the airport while filling in visa and immigration forms.

Supreme court lawyer Vishnu Basyal said that while Nepal had made progress towards equality, the country had a long way to go in accepting same-sex unions. “As the same-sex marriage that was registered recently still could not come out of the binary notion and terms, the married couple was represented as bride and groom/husband and wife,” she said. Civil society activism and proactive decisions of the supreme court have played a crucial role in introducing gender sensitive policies in Nepal, said Basyal, who also teaches at the Nepal Law Campus.

Nepal became a secular state in 2008, which was an outcome of the people’s movement and the Maoist uprising. Before that, it was the only Hindu country in the world. Therefore, Hindu culture, tradition and values are deeply embedded in the people’s mindset.

Beena Poudyal, former head of the central department of Nepalese history, culture and archaeology at Tribhuvan University, said that overall, the registration of same-sex marriage in Nepal was positive and should be welcomed, but warned that its acceptance in a society which was predominantly Hindu would be difficult. “Inter-caste marriage is not new in Nepal; however, it is still not done openly and there are many families that hide the caste of their children’s spouses. Therefore, acceptance of same-sex marriage will not happen overnight,” said Poudyal.

For people to come to terms with the fact that same-sex marriage has been legalised will take a long time. “Science has progressed and children can be born through different ways now, but in a society where religious, traditional and cultural values have strong roots, there will be several challenges that need to be addressed for same-sex couples to be accepted.”

Ananta Maharjan, one of the few certified male beauticians in Nepal, was sympathetic towards the rights of all, but said that he was not aware that people from the same sex could actually get married to each other. He said he had many questions regarding the children of such couples as that was the essence of marriage, in his view.

Bishwaraj Adhikary, Nepal’s first ‘Mr Gay Handsome’, who runs a gay restaurant called Inclusion Galaxy in Kathmandu, said that with the registration of the first same-sex marriage, organisations working for the cause of the sexual minorities should come together to make sure that their rights were ensured. He expressed confidence that such couples would be accepted by society, although many gay and lesbian couples were still not comfortable coming out.

“I am positive that our struggle will succeed. The registration of same-sex marriages is our big achievement and we will continue to lobby to get laws formulated to support same-sex marriages like [laws on] adoption, divorce and property rights,” said Sunil Babu Pant, founder of the Blue Diamond Society. Pant, who is also a former MP, said he was confident that the Nepali society would accept same-sex couples, despite its Hindu heritage. “Fundamentalism in India and Nepal is totally different,” he said. “In Nepal, people are very tolerant and are welcome to change. Therefore, we are now promoting tantric tourism walk and promotion of Nepal as a destination for LGBTQ communities as a touristic destination for same-sex marriage.”

marie-eve-breton-royal-canadian-mounted-police-canada-interview

Sat Dec 09 16:26:30 IST 2023

Interview/ Marie-Eve Breton, head of National Communication Services, Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Canada

THE STORM IN INDIA-CANADA ties refuses to abate with rising threats from pro-Khalistani extremists on Canadian soil. New Delhi is upset with Canada’s inaction, while Ottawa continues to blame “Indian agents’’ for the June 18 killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil. The past few months have seen exit of diplomats from both countries, threats to Indian missions and diplomats in Canada, and a sharp rise in warnings about terror attacks on Indian soil. The latest was the open threat against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other Indian leaders by the US-based lawyer Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, adviser to the banned Sikhs for Justice organisation.

THE WEEK asked Marie-Eve Breton of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police about the rising threats by pro-Khalistani extremists and about action to ensure the safety of Indians as well as Canadians. Breton said the RCMP was working closely with its Five Eyes partners (the US, the UK, Australia and New Zealand) to respond to all threats to national security. Excerpts:

Q/There is worry among Indian diplomats in Canada about their safety after repeated threats by pro-Khalistani radicals.

A/For embassies and consular offices, Canada has the responsibility under the Vienna Convention to ensure the inviolability of foreign missions in Canada. The response to, and investigation of, any criminal acts or public order matters that occur in the vicinity of missions would fall to the local police of jurisdiction. RCMP protection is extended to select foreign diplomatic personnel residing in Canada, as per Article 22, based on assessments of threat and risk. For the safety of those we protect as well as our members, and to ensure the integrity of our operations, the RCMP does not disclose information about specific protective measures.

Q/Is not Sikhs for Justice founder Gurpatwant Singh Pannun a risk to public safety after he threatened Hindus on Canadian soil and also issued threats against Indian leaders and Air India passengers?

A/RCMP investigations target criminal activity of any individual(s) who threaten the safety and security of Canadians. The RCMP is committed to working in partnership with both domestic and foreign agencies to keep Canadians safe and secure, and to protect Canadian interests at home and abroad. We remain vigilant about potential threats and take appropriate measures to ensure the safety and security of Canadians.

Q/What steps are being taken in view of repeated threats being made by Pannun against Hindus in Canada?

A/The safety and security of our citizens, regardless of their background or beliefs, remains a top priority for the RCMP. We have strong relationships with Canada’s security and intelligence community and law enforcement agencies around the world. In particular, the RCMP works closely with its Five Eyes partners to respond to, and maintain, situational awareness of all threats to national security. We are committed to working in partnership with both domestic and foreign agencies to keep Canadians safe and secure, and to protect Canadian interests.

Any threats made towards Canadian citizens are taken seriously and investigated as warranted. The RCMP enforces the Criminal Code of Canada, and provincial or territorial and municipal statutes where it is the contracted police of jurisdiction. In parts of the country where the RCMP does not have primary jurisdiction for policing, municipal or provincial police services hold the mandate. We will not tolerate any form of intimidation, harassment, or harmful targeting of communities or individuals in Canada.

Q/Are there concerns in Canada about misuse of religious places to raise funds to fuel separatist activities in India?

A/The RCMP does not investigate movements or ideologies, and will investigate the criminal activity of any individuals who threaten the safety and security of Canadians.

Q/Are you working closely with Indian security agencies to address concerns of weapons trafficking, drug trade and criminal activities in both countries?

A/The RCMP does not comment on potential or ongoing investigations here in Canada, or in other countries. We work closely with our international partners and maintain strong relationships with law enforcement agencies around the world. The RCMP’s assistance in international matters is always conducted with due diligence and in accordance with established policies and procedures in Canada.

Q/India has approached Interpol for action against Pannun. A Red Notice is already issued against gangster Goldy Brar who is in Canada.

A/In order to assist any foreign authority, the RCMP must first receive an official request and supporting documentation through the appropriate channels. Interpol is the first point of contact for many countries pursuing an international investigation. A Red Notice is a request to law enforcement worldwide to locate and potentially effect the provisional arrest of a person pending extradition, surrender or similar legal action. A Red Notice is not an international arrest warrant. The individuals are wanted by the requesting member country. Member countries apply their own laws in deciding whether to arrest a person.

Once the RCMP is made aware of an individual through those channels, it will use a number of assessment tools to determine whether there is any indication of criminality, whether the criminality is within our mandate and what risk they may pose. Due to privacy concerns, we cannot comment on individual cases. The RCMP is aware of the reports involving Brar and will not provide any further comment at this time.

the-pannun-case-will-remain-a-mere-blip-in-the-surging-india-us-ties

Sat Dec 09 16:22:33 IST 2023

AFTER MONTHS of speculation, the United States department of justice formally charged an Indian national, accusing him of working for the Indian government to carry out the planned assassination of a Sikh separatist leader and US citizen, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, in New York. The concerned person, Nikhil Gupta, has been charged with conspiracy and murder for hire. Emphasising that it was “contrary to government policy” to pursue extraterritorial assassinations, New Delhi described the case as a “matter of concern” and underlined that it would be “guided” by the results of a high-level inquiry committee it had set up.

The US charges came weeks after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there were “credible allegations” linking the Indian government to the killing of another Khalistani activist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in Canada in June. New Delhi strongly rejected Trudeau’s claims and accused Canada of providing shelter to “Khalistani terrorists and extremists”.

But the Indian response to American accusations has been serious. This is partly because the US has presented actionable evidence and the matter became public only after the investigation was completed. Moreover, the US government, while expecting accountability from India based on the results of New Delhi’s investigations, has been in no hurry to dismantle the relationship. Jonathan Finer, principal deputy national security adviser, suggested that there were many “difficult issues” that remain in the relationship, but he said that there was a bipartisan view in the US that both countries should seize some important opportunities on offer, both geopolitically and economically.

This is what makes this moment in India-US relationship a unique one. In the words of External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, “there is structural soundness in the India-US relationship” and it is “certainly proofed against political check”. The world’s two major democracies are getting better at riding through the bumps in their relationship as they are being driven by a singular strategic logic. It is now a strategic imperative for the two to work closely to maintain a favourable balance of power that advances their key interests and sustains their values. This is particularly true as the centre of gravity of global politics and economics has shifted to the Indo-Pacific and the rise of China has allowed for new challenges to emerge.

The US has understood that a sustained focus on the Indo-Pacific is needed, but it will have to be buttressed by strengthening old partnerships and building new ones. The Cold War era of ‘hub-and-spokes’ alliance framework is no longer the only game in town. Even as the US works with its traditional allies like Japan, Australia and South Korea, it will also have to work with newer partners like India which may never enter into formal alliances. Informal, ad hoc coalitions will have to be built to ensure that convergences can be exploited and divergences managed. This will also require shedding older inhibitions about sharing critical technologies, given their centrality in shaping the 21st century balance of power.

Yet this change and its acceptance across both sides of the political spectrum could only happen because India, too, has evolved in the last decade. Throughout the Cold War, New Delhi understood nonalignment as an instrument to achieve strategic autonomy by shunning close partnerships. Today, that understanding is being turned on its head. Strong partnerships are deemed by Indian policy makers as imperative means to enhance strategic autonomy. Issue-based coalitions are the norm in India’s external engagement today. India today is no longer non-aligned, but is willing to align on the basis of issues. This alignment does not mean formal alliances, but it is a significant shift in Indian foreign policy discourse and practice.

The dramatic resurgence of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue―the Quad―is the strongest manifestation of this new reality. The Quad is important and innovative, not because the US, Japan and Australia are its members; they have been close partners for decades now. The Quad’s real meaning lies in bringing India into this trilateral fold. As a non-alliance partner of the US, it is New Delhi that brings the real oomph to this platform and makes it more than the sum of its parts. China’s real discomfiture with the Quad comes from India’s participation in it and America’s acceptance of this new arrangement.

It is this newfound confidence that has allowed Indian policy makers to take ownership of ties with the US and the west more broadly. Jaishankar recently made it clear that when it comes to technology, India’s natural partners are the western economies.

Ever since the end of the Cold War, changing structural realities have propelled India-US relationship forward. Despite divisive politics at home and the predilections of individual leaders, the trajectory of these ties has continued to maintain an upward trend. More recently, the Ukraine war has underscored the divergences between the two nations. But institutionalisation of this partnership as reflected in the 2+2 arrangement has continued apace, allowing for the two nations to work through their differences “in a constructive way without derailing the broader cooperative agenda”. And it is this remarkable convergence that makes this perhaps the defining relationship of this century.

―The author is vice president, studies and foreign policy, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.

palestinian-american-writer-sharif-s-elmusa-says-the-occupation-has-brutalised-israel-as-well

Sat Nov 04 12:04:26 IST 2023

In order to retain ownership over my distant sky,

I must not own even my very skin.

―Mahmoud Darwish
A Soldier Dreams of White Lilies

IT IS LATE evening in Boston. Far away in Gaza, it is yet another dark night, after another day of nonstop Israeli attacks. Palestinian-American poet Sharif S. Elmusa says what is happening in his homeland is the continuation of the long struggle that started with the British colonial regime taking over Palestine. For him, it is almost like watching a rerun of history.

“Britain helped settle [the Jewish people] in Palestine, and it suppressed all our hopes,” says Elmusa. “We revolted in 1936, before India [became independent]. We were very small people, there was just about a million of us. The British sent 20,000 troops from Europe to crush them. They almost left because of our resistance. But we lost eventually, like everyone else. We are the last people who are not freed from colonialism.”

But it is a battle that is far from over. And there are no winners.

In his essay “Portable Absence: My Camp Remembered”, Elmusa writes that Britain sends expats to other lands, India immigrants, and Palestine exiles. It is in this exile that he continues to remember, and refuses erasure. “It is the dispossession of everything,’’ he says. “Once you lose your country, apart from the material losses, the house, the land and everything, you also lose your historical memory. You are cut off.” That is what Israel is doing to Palestine, he says. “Israel tries to redraw everything. It is the biggest archaeological site in the world. Everyone there is an amateur archaeologist, trying to redraw everything. And our history is being wiped out.”

Elmusa, 76, spent his whole life searching for home. As Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish writes, “I have learned and dismantled all the words in order to draw from them a single word: Home.” Elmusa would know. He grew up in a refugee camp, which he says looked like a version of the streets in American cities. He realised it when he first went to New York. “I understood that the camp is really a modern contraption. It was like the well-organised streets in an American city. The UN used to come every month, and gave people food and stuff. That was the most humiliating thing for my father, and for us.” He stopped going as soon as he grew up.

In a piece he wrote for the Indian Quarterly, Elmusa talks about an opportunity he got to work in Gaza with the United Nations Development Programme and telling his father about the assignment. “[My father], who always praised the last meal he ate as the best, singled out the guavas of Khan Younis as the most delicious guavas he ever had. He was living in Amman, Jordan, at the time where the Elmusas ended up after the 1967 war, during which Israel occupied the rest of Palestine. Fortunately, late summer and early fall is the time when guavas ripen; and I was delighted to be able to send him a whiff of a taste that had lodged itself so deeply in the recesses of his palette, and to have him enjoy for a moment a palpable connection to a land he never again could step into after 1948.”

Elmusa once got a chance to return to the site of the camp in the West Bank where he grew up, the only home he says he knew, even if it was not real. He found that it was all gone, erased. “All had been melted into dusty air.... The houses were all gone. Their whitewashed mud brick walls did not purr when we lived in them, and perhaps had already looked like ruins to outsiders, but they sheltered the private pleasures and agonies of many families, and stood as testimony and symbol of our expulsion in 1948. Now they were not even rubble that one could gaze at and try to reconstruct in the mind’s eye, or reanimate with the lives that once filled them.”

For Palestinians, the erasure was brutal. It was systematic, savage, relentless and complete. And yet, it is constantly denied. “When people were first driven out, they thought they would go back, because most refugees think they would go back,’’ says Elmusa. “This is why Israel destroyed our villages, so that we forget about the idea of returning.”

And to erase the past, even the landscape was changed. The olive tree―quite the symbol of Palestine―was replaced by the pine. Elmusa spent much of his life trying to create biographies of these erased villages, like obituaries to remind people that they existed. “But nature is stronger than we are. The Israelis wanted to make an Israeli landscape because they came from Europe. They had all these pines. They thought it will bring rain to the region, because Europe has this rainfall. But the pines turned out to be a fire hazard. And they accuse the Palestinians of starting the fires.’’

Writing is a form of protest for the Palestinians, but it is also a resistance against erasure. Keeping alive the memory of the past at a time when Israel is trying to rewrite history to wipe out Palestinian claims to the land through reinterpreting archaeology is political as well as personal for the Palestinians. A poem is perhaps “the silence in which the stranger wraps himself to preserve memory, to resist the gravity of the new abode.” It is survival.

And so in the poem “We Never Left”, Palestinian-American writer Susan Abulhawa says, “We persist. We exist. We are one nation, one history, one heritage, one people. Determined and destined to go home.”

Elmusa believes that the only way forward is to accept that. “What I know and what I would like to see is whether Israel will finally realise that it cannot live by the sword. That they have to come to accommodation with the Palestinians and stop this for everybody,’’ he says. “It will destroy everything. It has destroyed us. But they also have been brutalised. The people who were put into concentration camps are putting other people in concentration camps and killing them.”

indian-jews-in-israel-advocate-peaceful-coexistence-with-neighbours-of-different-faiths

Sat Nov 04 16:29:51 IST 2023

NEVATIM, AN idyllic moshav (cooperative agricultural settlement) dominated by Cochin Jews located on Israel’s border with Gaza, was recently called the “living bridge between the two most ancient civilisations’’ by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The first Indian Jewish Heritage Centre in Israel is coming up in Nevatim, which is expected to be a meeting point for Indian Jews in Israel, numbering around a lakh. Indian Jews comprise diverse communities such as the Arabic speaking Baghdadi Jews with roots in Mumbai and Kolkata, Cochin Jews from Kerala, Bene Israel from Maharashtra and B’nei Menashe from Manipur and Mizoram.

Established in 1946 along with 10 other villages in the Negev desert as part of an initiative to create a barrier separating Israel from Egypt and Gaza, Nevatim continues to play a pivotal role following the recent upsurge in violence. As the conflict intensifies, trapped inside the moshav are families of Cochin Jews even as they pray for peace at their beautiful synagogue, adorned with relics from their hometown, located in a green compound where neem, tulsi and ashwagandha grow.

“We are peaceful, hard-working people who built this amazing country. We want to live in safety and peace,” says Dr Nehemia Sahaf, chairman of the Cochin Heritage Centre in Nevatim. “When the [October 7] attacks started, we were in the synagogue for Saturday prayers. It was very difficult to tell people to stop praying and go home to the shelter,” he says. The gatherings have since extended to daily prayers for peace. “Our streets are empty of civilians. The only vehicles moving around belong to security and emergency services.”

Avner Isaac, chairman of the Indian Jewish Heritage Centre, says his dream is to see Jews of Indian origin embrace values of acceptance and peaceful coexistence with neighbours of different origins and religions. The Bene Israelis, the largest group of Indian Jews, are martial men, and their ancestors were part of Chhatrapati Shivaji’s army. “If India is our motherland, Israel is our fatherland,” says Avner. “I came to Israel when I was nine months old. So, all my memories of India are as an adult. As I grew up, I realised that Jews were able to live freely in India without [fearing] anti-Semitism. They have always lived there in peace and harmony with their neighbours. The only time they faced any threat was during the 2008 Mumbai attacks on the Chabad house and other locations.’’

Avner’s father, David Isaac, 91, went to a school in Sassoon docks in Mumbai in the 1940s. It was at the bustling, picturesque dock established by Jewish industrialist Sir Albert Sassoon where he learnt the tools and the trade to become an engineer on merchant ships, setting sail to faraway shores in 1963. As he sits in a bomb shelter today, with sirens going off every few hours, David is, thankfully, saved the trouble of understanding that he is in the midst of a war.

The Jewish population in India has shrunk over the years with most of them emigrating to Israel. But in wars and in facing terror, Jews in India and in Israel have always joined hands. Marian Sofaer, whose mother emigrated to Israel when she was 12, is proud of her links in both countries. She is married to Abraham David Sofaer, an American attorney born in Mumbai. “We found our roots together. I feel we must educate our youth about our diverse heritage,’’ said Marian, who refurbishes old synagogues to put them on the world map.

The deep cultural embrace is fulfilling for many. Ruth Greenfield, 62, daughter of the famous architect Joshua Moses Benjamin, credits her father for instilling in her the values of contributing to the welfare of the community. Benjamin, chief architect of the government of India in the late 19th century, was a key pillar of the Indian Jewish community. He designed the Parliament Annexe building and many other important buildings like the Delhi High Court and the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade. He also designed several embassy and consulate buildings for India. Ruth has memories of visitors walking into their home in Delhi every day. The Jewish community in Delhi was vibrant those days, she says, and Jewish people from across India used to visit Benjamin.

Such bonds are strong even today. Isaac Thangjom, project director of Degel Menashe, an organisation that works for the B’nei Menashe community in Israel, is passionate about India and visits his hometown Imphal often. “Identity forms a very important part of every person. We want to inculcate a sense of pride in our younger generation and an insight and understanding of who they are,’’ he says.

Nearly 5,000 B’nei Menashe Jews in India were planning to make their journey to Israel when the conflict broke out on October 7. Their plans may be on hold at the moment, but the pursuit of peace by Jews of Indian origin continues. In Nevatim, they are joined by their Israeli friends. Ofra Bar Gil grew up in a community surrounded by Indian Jews and got deeply influenced by the ideals of peace and coexistence. “I am an ayurvedic practitioner. To learn more from India is my mission,” she says, waiting for Nevatim to open its gates once again to peace.

pakistan-s-decision-to-deport-afghan-refugees-raises-questions-about-ethics

Tue Oct 31 10:25:32 IST 2023

ON OCTOBER 3, PAKISTAN Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti announced that illegal immigrants in the country should leave by November 1. The caretaker government warned that they would be deported, if they failed to comply. The order has hit unregistered immigrants from Afghanistan the hardest, forcing the United Nations to weigh in. Said Qaiser Khan Afridi, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), “We have seen disconcerting press reports about a plan to deport undocumented Afghans and we are seeking clarity from our government partners. Any refugee return must be voluntary and without any pressure to ensure protection for those seeking safety.”

Since the move has been seen as targeting Afghan migrants who number around 37 lakh, Pakistan’s foreign office clarified that the order applied to all foreigners without valid documents. A foreign office spokesperson said Pakistan’s policy towards Afghan refugees “remained unchanged” and the ongoing operation was against individuals who had either overstayed their visas or did not have valid documents. Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees since the Soviet Union’s invasion in 1979.

There are about four types of Afghan refugees, according to journalist Azaz Syed. The first category has been in the country since the time of the Soviet invasion. A lot of them still remain undocumented despite the group being in Pakistan for at least three generations. The second group got themselves registered in 2007, and got a document called proof of registration (PoR). This was done with the help of the UNHCR. The third category comprises people who registered in 2017 through the Afghan Citizen Card (ACC). Those with the PoR and ACC number around 22 lakh.

The fourth category, numbering around seven lakh, came to Pakistan after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in August 2021. Most of them are in ‘transit’, as they want to leave for a third country. They are spread across cities such as Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore and Karachi. The UNHCR and some countries are supporting them. “A large number of Afghans have become an integral part of Pakistani society. Some of them have also sneaked into the system and got Pakistani citizenship and passports,” said Syed.

A distressing situation has unfolded in Karachi, where over a thousand Afghan refugees were arrested by the local police, said Moniza Kakar, a lawyer. “Police say they are undocumented, but a majority of them possess valid identification cards,” said Kakar. “The wrongful arrests and detention of documented refugees have raised serious humanitarian concerns. These individuals have fled from conflict and instability in Afghanistan, seeking refuge and safety. Their unjust incarceration not only puts their wellbeing at risk, but also highlights the need for a closer examination of the situation.”

Aman Ullah, a PoR card holder, told THE WEEK that after the announcement about illegal immigrants was made, even PoR card holders were not spared. Often, their cards are snatched and destroyed by the police. “Wherever the police see an Afghan, it happens. More than 2,000 Afghans with PoR or ACC cards are in jail, apart from those who do not have papers. Afghans are worried and are going back home,” he said. “Things have improved a little after the interior minister’s announcement that seized identity documents should be returned. Some courts in Karachi have given relief to card holders, but others have not. Those Afghans who have businesses like restaurants in Karachi are being told by building owners to vacate.” Most Afghans are scared to venture out of their homes.

“Refugees fleeing war and turmoil have a moral right to seek refuge in another country and to be treated with dignity and empathy,” said Harris Khalique, secretary general of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan. He said the HRCP was lobbying the government to reverse the blanket decision to ban all migrants, as it would affect vulnerable groups, including women and children.

Khushal Khattak of the National Democratic Movement (NDM), a Pashtun nationalist political party, told THE WEEK that following the caretaker government’s announcement, Afghans were arrested in hundreds and raids were being conducted in their places. “This is why it seems that this is directed at the Afghans.” And, in the case of valid document holders, many of them are let off after bribes are paid. In recent weeks, some Afghan settlements in Islamabad have been razed. “These are poor people. There is also a fear within the Afghan community that if they are arrested, the bail process is very problematic and difficult,” said Khattak.

NDM chairperson Mohsin Dawar introduced a bill for the protection of refugees, but it was not allowed to be on the agenda. “There is a lot of uncertainty and fear within the Afghan community. Human rights activists and Pashtun parties are talking about it. Unfortunately, mainstream voices are missing,” said Khattak. “There is a danger to some of these Afghans from the Afghan Taliban and it would be difficult for them to go back. Also, there is no state in Afghanistan at the moment. What are they supposed to return to? This is a humanitarian crisis. There needs to be more voices so that the government reconsiders this policy.”

Former lawmaker and senior politician Bushra Gohar said the Afghans were being forced out because of the Doha deal between the US and its allies and the Taliban. “The unending cycle of pain and suffering of the displaced Afghans has been exacerbated by Pakistan’s caretaker government with its announcement of forced eviction and deportation. Giving a deadline to leave and threatening to check DNAs of Afghans is meant to add to their sufferings and is in violation of human rights.” She said it was not the first time that such knee-jerk reactions had been taken by the government against vulnerable Afghan refugees to divert attention from its failed Afghan policies.

“Those who came much earlier and have legal documents are also facing harassment and extortion. Homes in Kutchi (an Afghan nomadic group) settlements have been razed before the announced deadline. Such reactions are in violation of universal human rights and international conventions. Pakistan with a large refugee population does not have a coherent policy and law for refugees. A private member bill was tabled in the previous National Assembly but it was obstructed and not allowed to be debated,” said Gohar. She asked the government to facilitate registration of families, especially women and children forced to leave Afghanistan to avoid persecution by the Taliban. Gohar said terrorising the vulnerable Afghan population to build pressure on the Taliban must end. “Finally, it is not the mandate of caretaker governments to take such policy decisions with serious human rights, security and foreign policy implications.”

Zebunnisa Burki, a senior journalist who focuses on humanitarian issues, said it would be cruel to send back scores of refugees to a country devastated not just by war, but also by a regime that did not care for its people. She also spoke about the devastation caused by the recent earthquake and the impact of the western sanctions. “Why are we sending them back now? If the government wants to crack down on smuggling and other activities, it should be done, but sending the Afghan refugees back by giving them a deadline is sheer cruelty.”

The government, however, pushed back at the criticism. Interior Minister Bugti told THE WEEK that the new policy was not specifically against Afghans. “It is not aimed at any specific ethnic group or any specific country,” he said. “Anyone who is here with a refugee status or a transit status are our guests. We are only asking illegal immigrants―those who have illegal businesses here, those who have breached our security data to make illegal identity cards, be it Afghans or people of any other nationality―to leave.”

israel-s-retaliation-against-hamas-could-lead-to-a-wider-conflict-in-the-middle-east

Sat Oct 21 16:54:55 IST 2023

On the walls of the National Digital Centre in Sderot, a small city in southern Israel, there are pictures of nearly 90 hostages, now believed to be in Gaza. According to Israeli officials, the youngest hostage is just nine months old while the oldest are above 80. It is yet another painful reminder of the Hamas attack on October 7, which left nearly 1,500 Israelis dead and more than 3,000 injured.

“If the United States had its ‘9/11’, this is ‘7/10’ for us. A date we will never forget,” said Amir, a 42-year-old Israeli travel operator. “Ours is a tiny country with a small population. Imagine what will happen if some 50,000 people are massacred in a day in a similar attack in the US and the reactions that it will generate.” Like everyone else in Israel, Amir, too, has had his share of national service. The Israel Defence Forces has not yet recalled him because of a health condition. “I am very angry. I am also worried because I have children. Who can murder women, children and the elderly? You have to be a criminal of the worst sort to do this kind of thing,” said Amir. “I was in the army so I can understand a soldier killing another soldier. We will not let even our coming generations forget this.”

The road from Tel Aviv airport to Jerusalem is usually chock-a-block with traffic, even on Friday nights, just before Sabbath. But as THE WEEK team took the road, it looked deserted as Israelis preferred to stay indoors, feeling worried and afraid. Also, most mobilised reservists have already left to join their units.

Israel has mobilised more than three lakh reservists. Among them is Naomi, a 20-year-old girl from Sderot. At an age when she should be studying, Naomi is carrying an M16 automatic rifle. “Nobody should face what we are facing,” she said, pointing towards vehicles full of bullet holes.

Ronen, a 45-year-old first responder from Sderot, recalled the first distress call which came at 6:30 in the morning on October 7. “It was about a rocket hit on a building. As we were rushing there, the mayor summoned me to the command centre. He said terrorists were shooting everywhere and had killed 41 victims in Sderot alone. I pulled an injured officer aside from the road, picked up his M16 and started firing at the terrorists. I got hit by two bullets on my left shoulder,” said Ronen, a former soldier. “Hamas is Islamic State. Today it is us, tomorrow it will be you. Recognise this evil and destroy it,” he said.

Shira, a shy eight-year-old girl from Sderot, was trying to reach her father, Ofir, all through the day. Ofir was busy fighting and rescuing people. “Dozens of bodies were lying on the streets. I think over a thousand terrorists attacked that day and many of them had come equipped to stay here for long. We fought them off,” said Ofir.

Dafna Rousso and her family members from kibbutz Kfar Aza, five kilometres east of Gaza, woke up to the sound of sirens on October 7. She and her husband Uri could hear indiscriminate shooting from very close quarters. “Our three daughters were sleeping in safe rooms and my husband left quickly. When my daughters asked me about him, I told them that daddy never went anywhere without saying goodbye, so he would be back. Although I sent him a text message, there was no reply,” said Dafna. She then went to the head of the community brigade in the kibbutz, but he did not have any answers for her. “Upon hearing the firing outside, my initial thought was that it was the IDF trying to protect us. Only later did I realise what was really happening,” she said.

Dafna’s sister then messaged her that Hamas killed her mother-in-law and injured her son Netta. “The kid is so close to me. It was at this time that I realised that something very bad was happening to us,” she said. Dafna and her daughters were locked inside their house till the IDF arrived. Along with help, however, came some very bad news. The IDF told her that Uri lost his life in the battle with Hamas. “The army returned his personal weapon and six bullets were missing. They told us that there were six dead people around him. So he managed to kill at least six terrorists. I told my daughters that their father was a hero. He did whatever he could to keep everybody safe,” said Dafna, holding back tears. “I want my daughters to remember how much their father loved them and how he wanted the best for them.”

Nani and Avital are an elderly couple living in kibbutz Magen in northwestern Negev near Gaza. When rockets started raining in, they went into the shelter inside their house, along with their daughter Nil and her husband and three babies. Nani and Avital have another daughter, Rimon, who lived in kibbutz Nir Am. “Rimon texted Nani that terrorists were outside her window and were firing indiscriminately. By around 8:30am Nani and Avital lost contact with Rimon,” said Shani, Rimon’s cousin. “When they went to look for her, they found the house riddled with bullets and covered in blood.”

Nani returned to her house and the family was forced to defend themselves for nearly 30 hours. Help came only by the night of October 8. Nil was evacuated to the Dead Sea region along with her husband and three children, while Nani and Avital were taken to a hospital in Tel Aviv. Rimon and her husband are still missing, most probably taken to Gaza as hostages. “Rimon is 36, she takes care of animals that no one wants. She also loves music and flowers. Why would someone do this to her?” asked a weeping Shani.

Kibbutz Be’eri, located in Negev desert near the eastern border with Gaza, looks like a ghost community now. There are signs of destruction all round. Charred houses, destroyed vehicles and broken toys are everywhere, and the entire area reeks of burning smell. Roads are strewn with bullets from automatic weapons; there are abandoned RPGs, unexploded munitions and other weapons. More than 100 Israelis were killed in Be’eri on October 7. “It was a peaceful residential community till that morning. Terrorists massacred everyone whom they could target. We know that 54 police officers were killed, as they tried to save civilians,” said police spokesperson Dean Elsdunne.

Air raid sirens can be heard across Israel, as Hamas continues to fire rockets and Israel’s air defence systems intercept them. As sirens go off, one has to lie down quickly, with the response time being just about seven seconds. Sirens sounded twice when we were in Be’eri and there were explosions lasting about five minutes each.

“The battle in Be’eri went on for hours. Hamas came into our houses, took hostages and shot many people, forcing other family members to watch the massacre. They raped women and beheaded children. Then they sat down, and had food. The world needs to see this monster. Israel has every right to defend itself,” said Elsdunne.

The woes of affected areas like Be’eri are felt across the country, including Jerusalem, Judaism’s holiest city. Jerusalem, which has a significant presence of Palestinians and Israeli Arabs, is on edge. We saw the arrest of one of them. His car was intercepted by a six-member security team. He was asked to get out, the car was searched thoroughly for weapons and then his hands and legs were cuffed. He and his car were then taken away by the police.

A woman who was present at the scene told us that such things happened routinely to Arabs and Palestinians. “For us, it has always been like this. Sometimes I feel whether Israel wanted this attack to happen so that they could retaliate heavily and could also get aid and more military supplies from the US,” said the woman, who works as a customer relations executive.

An Arab hotel owner whose family has been living in Jerusalem for more than four centuries echoed similar sentiments. “We have been suffering in silence for long. My ancestral house in the Old City is almost 400 years old. The Israeli army is very mean to us, they beat up our people every day. We have to be brave and patient,” he said.

There are many more people in Jerusalem with similar tales to share. A Palestinian taxi driver who grew up in Jerusalem said the city was beautiful and had a rich history, but the constant strife and tensions had made it unappealing for people like him. “I studied electrical engineering, but during the second Intifada in 2003, I was arrested by Israeli forces just because I had gone to fix some electrical appliances at a Jewish citizen’s house. I was only 22. My career was over in a matter of days and I had to take up the job of a taxi driver,” he said.

As Israel intensifies its efforts to dismantle Hamas, the threat of ground war is growing by the minute, despite the arrival of US President Joe Biden in Tel Aviv. As we drove from Ashkelon to Netiv HaAsara on the Gaza border, we saw the full mobilisation of the IDF with tanks, armoured personnel carriers and artillery guns lined up on both sides of the road. Camps of soldiers are everywhere. They do not say much, except asking journalists not to take photos. Overhead, we could hear IDF jets raiding Gaza unchallenged, leaving behind a trail of death and destruction.

The Israeli government has vowed to finish off Hamas once and for all. Tal Heinrich, spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, replied to a query of this correspondent that the IDF would make sure that each and every perpetrator of the October 7 attacks would be dealt with severely. Israel says it will not negotiate with terrorists and has demanded the unconditional return of all hostages. Qatar, which hosts key Hamas leaders, is said to be trying to ensure the safe return of the hostages.

The entire Middle East is worried that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a wider conflict, forcing major world powers to step in. With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine, yet another major conflict will have devastating consequences not just for the Middle East, but for the world.

the-biggest-casualty-of-the-israel-hamas-war-is-the-new-middle-east

Sat Oct 21 15:32:17 IST 2023

THE ROAD TO hell is paved with good intentions. This was never truer for US President Joe Biden than it is now. Preparing for a re-election bid, he is watching the new Middle East turning into ashes. And he has a task that only Agent Ethan Hunt in a Mission Impossible movie could pull off―find a solution for the messiest problem since the 1940s, the Israel-Palestine conflict. And on a deadline.

“The situation is dire,” said Kabir Taneja, fellow at Observer Research Foundation. “This has pushed the question of Palestine, for long on the back burner, now to the front and centre.”

Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7 put an end to the dreams of a new Middle East. The subsequent bombing of Gaza by Israel has ensured that the humanitarian crisis in the region will only become worse, and the pressure to find a fix will only mount. From both sides.

Backing down now will not be an easy choice for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, especially because he is facing corruption charges. For the rest of the Middle East, which was determined to find a better economic situation by sweeping the Palestine question under the carpet, the killing of the civilians in Gaza needs a response to satisfy the domestic audience.

Any American attempt to douse the fire has been met with resistance. Even Biden’s quick visit did not change the situation. Earlier, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a tough time lobbying for a stronger position on Hamas by Arab nations. Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, reportedly kept him waiting for hours, setting the tone for what followed.

The redrawing of the Middle East―using economics to gloss over the problems―with the Abraham accords and the normalisation of Israel-Saudi Arabia relations is now back to square one. The civil nuclear deal and the weapons that Saudi Arabia wanted from the US will no longer be an incentive good enough. “Saudi Arabia cannot even think of flirting with Israel,” said Talmiz Ahmad, former ambassador of India to Saudi Arabia.

If October 7 was a turning point for Israel, the attack on the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City on October 17 could well be another one for the conflict. It has added another level of complexity to the mix, forcing Jordan―the second Arab country to sign a peace deal with Israel in 1994―to cancel a summit with Biden. The summit was a desperate attempt to keep the balance in the region that is a powder keg. That Jordan cancelled it at a time when it could have helped the country become a leader in the region and kept it in the good books of the US shows how emotive the issue is. About three million people of Palestinian origin are there in Jordan.

Diplomacy apart, the bigger challenge will be dealing with the fallout of the crisis. Gaza has been demolished, and rebuilding it will be a herculean task. The Arab nations that are offering solidarity have refused to take in any refugees. So far the border with Egypt remains closed. Jordan, too, is unable to cope with more refugees. “That is a red line, because I think that is the plan by certain of the usual suspects to try and create de facto issues on the ground. No refugees in Jordan, no refugees in Egypt,” said King Abdullah of Jordan at a news conference after a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin. The Palestinians, too, do not want to leave Gaza, because that will amount to ceding their land to Israel. How this will play out in the near future remains to be seen.

What makes it more tricky for the US is that China has already made inroads in the region. President Xi Jinping may not have the answers―certainly not the right ones―for the problems, but he has already taken a pro-Arab position. For now, the problem is very much Biden’s. And he won’t be the first American president to fail at it.

israel-will-have-to-fight-in-the-terrain-of-hamas-s-choosing

Sat Oct 21 15:29:35 IST 2023

NOT JUST ‘SMOKE on the water’ and ‘a fire in the sky’―there will be an inferno in the netherworld, too, in the event of the war that Israel is gearing up for. On the face of it, there seems to be absolute asymmetry between the military might of Israel and Palestinian militias. But, it is not as overwhelming as it appears. Because this is to be an unconventional battle.

The entire Gaza enclave is perched atop an intricate and complex network of concrete tunnels. The tunnel construction work, believed to have begun in 1999, had picked up pace after Hamas seized power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

On March 5, 2014, Israel’s navy intercepted a ship carrying weapons destined for Gaza. It had rockets, mortar shells and ammunition, and, another strategic commodity―cement, from Iran; about 100 containers (more than 2 million tonnes) of it. A report by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA), a leading think-tank, says that by 2014, Israel had “discovered 100km of tunnels in Gaza, one-third of which stretched under Israeli territory”. In fact, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) undertook Operation Protective Edge in 2014 with the prime intent of destroying the tunnel network, but only about 30 tunnels that ran into Israel were discovered and destroyed.

The issue for Israel is that the tunnels will facilitate full-blown urban guerrilla warfare, street by street and lane by lane. Israeli battle tanks rumbling through streets can be targeted by guerrillas wielding shoulder-launched anti-tank weapons. An IDF post says: “Hamas’s tunnel network is in fact a vast underground city with dozens of access points located throughout Gaza. Hamas uses these tunnels as weapons caches, bunkers, command centers and a concealed transportation artery for terrorists and weapons, including rocket launchers.”

By lying deceptively low while Israel focused more on the much-larger Hezbollah, Hamas has built tunnel networks much beyond Gaza and well into Egypt’s Sinai and into Israel. Hidden from satellites and drones, these well-camouflaged tunnels crisscross underneath residential quarters, schools, public buildings, open areas and are well-lighted, ventilated, and big enough for free movement of men and material. Over the years, several operations by the IDF aimed at destroying the Hamas tunnel infrastructure have only served to expand it.

The new extensive and deeper tunnels also serve as operational bases, weapons manufacturing units, arsenals, jails and places to trap the enemy, apart from being entry and exit points for operations. It is a terrain whose layout only the Hamas knows.

Aware of the threat, the IDF set up its own tunnel warfare unit―the Yahalom. Its mandate is to “discover, clear, and destroy terror tunnels”. It is divided into the Yael or the unit engineering reconnaissance force; the Sayfan, for the handling of non-conventional weapons; and the Samur, specialist tunnel fighters.

Apart from tunnels, Hamas has also honed its weapons manufacturing ability. A JCPA report in August 2021 concluded that Hamas had developed enormous capability to produce its arsenal and was no longer fighting an asymmetrical war. It warned that Hamas was developing “drones and unmanned underwater vehicles, engaging in cyber warfare, and on the cusp of graduating from unguided rockets to precision, GPS-guided drones and missiles”.

There is also the spectre of the war spilling into multiple fronts. The omnipresent Hezbollah threat is already beginning to manifest into the opening of a new front. And, the US-led west will soon have to divide its weapons supply between Ukraine and Israel.

All these factors mean that Israel faces a serious tactical and strategic dilemma. No wonder Tel Aviv blamed a thick cloud cover for the delay in its ground offensive. It is still waiting.

arab-world-wants-it-s-dignity-back

Sat Oct 21 16:48:34 IST 2023

GAZA IS FACING A catastrophe as Israel is determined to uproot Hamas and other armed groups in the enclave. The heavy bombs are being dropped to reach the tunnels. Common people are paying the price for the Hamas attack on Israel. We are seeing massive displacement of Gazans―we fear a third of the total 2.3 million people will be displaced. Most of them are refugees from Palestine―from Jaffa, Haifa and Jerusalem. They are third and fourth generation refugees who are getting displaced again.

As Israel continues its Gaza operation, the normalisation of its ties with other Middle Eastern states will be delayed, because under these clouds of war, Saudi Arabia will be reluctant to shake hands with it. In any case, Saudi Arabia will not give Biden this electoral card ahead of the elections. It will try to postpone the process as much as possible and give this to Donald Trump or any other Republican.

This operation could mark the end of Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan is gaining now, as it is trying to ride the tide of people’s massive solidarity with Hamas. And it is not just about Hamas, it is about resistance against the occupier. For people in the Arab world, it is not that they want the death of Israelis. They want their dignity back. They feel that they have been crushed all the time by the Israeli occupation in the West Bank and in Gaza. They want justice, fairness, and dignity.

Officially, most of the Middle Eastern countries spoke about the need to save civilians and about the need for restraint, but they did not condemn Israel directly because the US was very stern when it said that all countries should condemn Hamas. But had they condemned Hamas, the streets in Amman and in Cairo and in other places would have gone up in flames because of the anger and despair, and the solidarity they feel with the Palestinian cause.

Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Iraq, meanwhile, condemned Israel unequivocally as they follow Iran. The Iranian foreign minister visited Beirut and Damascus to discuss future plans. But if they open a front against Israel, Iran will definitely be under attack. That is why the US is sending a second aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean. From Damascus, the Iranian foreign minister went to Doha, which is home to Hamas high operatives like Khaled Mashal. The US secretary of state was also in Doha, for mediation and for exploring the possibility of prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas, and to lessen Gaza’s destruction.

A major casualty of this conflict would be Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing ministers. They will face many questions. After the conflict ends, he will be blamed for what happened. There will be a committee like the one that was formed after the 1973 war. Netanyahu’s popularity is at its lowest now. Benny Gantz, who is his partner in the unity government, has seen his popularity rising tremendously. So we are heading towards punishment for Netanyahu, but not right now. We are talking about early next year―when things would be clear in Gaza, and Hamas would be crushed.

Hattar heads News Roya Media Group, the largest privately owned media company in Jordan.

―As told to Ajish P. Joy.

the-best-time-to-visit-russia-amidst-conflict

Sat Oct 07 17:45:18 IST 2023

Russia is undoubtedly an unconventional choice for a holiday destination in 2023. Visiting a country in the throes of war, and deemed an enemy of the west, seems like walking into the lion’s den. Surprisingly, it was quite the opposite, not least because Russia, being the aggressor, has contained the war to within Ukraine. Barring a few drone attacks, there has barely been aggression on Russian soil.

Thus, after getting assurances from contacts in Russia that life in the two largest cities, Saint Petersburg and Moscow, was carrying on as normal, a long pending trip, cancelled multiple times for various reasons, came to fruition in August.

Before the pandemic, Russia was a much sought-after destination, and flights and hotels were quickly booked up during the summer months, when the weather is warm and at its best. For a large part of the year, the country experiences sub-zero temperatures, hence the weather window to enjoy the sights and outdoors is short. Americans flocked there in droves and an increasing number of Indians were visiting year-on-year.

A country with a fascinating history, beautiful buildings, meticulously maintained museums, numerous monuments, monasteries and churches, grand palaces, breathtaking gardens, and rivers bustling with activity, there is simply so much to see and do in summertime Russia.

While its streets were bereft of international tourists this year, Russian tourists were aplenty. With travel sanctions imposed upon them because of the war, Russians have chosen to travel within their own vast country this summer; so instead of a week in Spain, it is a week in Sochi, and those from Sochi are visiting the sights of Saint Petersburg.

As New Delhi has taken a ‘neutral’ stance on the war, Indians are very welcome. In fact, because of the overall reduction in tourists, hotel rooms are plentiful, tickets to sought-after sights are easily available, streets and museums are less crowded, and because of the falling rouble, eating out, accommodation and entertainment has never been cheaper.

In Saint Petersburg and Moscow, you would be hard-pressed to tell that this was a country at war. Streets and sidewalks were bustling with musicians, artists and teens making dance videos for TikTok, diners were enjoying long, languorous lunches alfresco, parks were swarming with people making the most of the glorious summer weather, and rivers, lakes and waterways were teeming with boats and water sports.

Theatres and dance performances were in full swing. We saw a new production of the The Nutcracker ballet at Saint Petersburg’s famous Mariinksy Theatre. There were no signs of any war-time austerity; the sets and costumes were spectacular, and the production pulled out all the stops.

After Russia invaded Ukraine, many international companies pulled out of Russia; some remained. When multinational fast-food chain McDonald's pulled out, a Russian firm took over their restaurants, using a different name and logo but serving the same fare. Burger King, however, is still very much around. There are coffee shops that looks exactly like Starbucks, with a slightly different name and logo. Many international fashion brands, too, shut shop. Their withdrawal meant a plethora of empty shop spaces in prime localities. This led to the burgeoning of local fashion brands, some of which are now thriving.

After the war began, many Russian banks were banned from the SWIFT international payment messaging system. Major international credit card companies like Mastercard, Visa and American Express, too, withdrew their services from Russia.

Some hotels, however, are still accepting Visa or Mastercard credit cards issued in India. To pay for other travel expenses, the only way is to change dollars or other currency into roubles. This can be easily done at several banks and money exchanges that are open around the clock, seven days a week.

In many countries in Europe these days, pickpocketing and homelessness is rampant. Moscow and Saint Petersburg, however, did not have either of these. Streets were safe and spotless, thanks to the government-sponsored cleaning system that works like clockwork.

While we entered Russia with trepidation, cautious not to discuss sensitive topics such as the war in Ukraine or President Vladimir Putin, we found that our tour guides were happy to discuss these factors openly and were unafraid to express their opinion. Professional, licensed tour guides in Russia are highly educated, knowledgeable and articulate since they need to pass multiple exams to qualify and are required to frequently update their licenses.

Our guides in Saint Petersburg and Moscow, all of whom spoke excellent English, were unanimous in their opinion that Russia was a resilient country and would be able to withstand external pressure or sanctions. “If you stop selling us Parmesan cheese, we will make our own Parmesan cheese,” said Julia, 46, a tour guide in Saint Petersburg, as we walked towards the renowned State Hermitage Museum.

The war, however, has gone on longer than anticipated, and both Russia and Ukraine have lost a large number of troops. “The war has lasted so long because Russia is fighting not only with Ukraine, but also with the US, Europe and the UK,” said Aitan, 48, a professional tour guide in Saint Petersburg who took us on a tour of the magnificent Peterhof Palace and its exquisite gardens.

“The price of human life was never high here; group interests always dominated personal ones, for better or worse,” said Svetlana, 49, a teacher and tour guide in Moscow, as she walked us through the Red Square, adjacent to the Kremlin. “Russia has substantially high resources of people, minerals, and incredibly gold reserves. It seems like Russia is quite ready for long-term military operations. Ukraine’s harsh resistance was unexpected, and its military readiness was underestimated.”

As the war drags into its 19th month, Ukraine’s allies and neighbours are getting weary. On September 20, amid growing tension between Kyiv and Warsaw over a dispute regarding grain exports, Polish Prime Minster Mateusz Morawiecki, said that Poland would no longer be supplying weapons to Ukraine. Recent polls have shown that the American public, too, are growing weary. Republicans are opposed to President Joe Biden’s latest request to Congress for $24 billion for additional aid to Ukraine.

Russians, in general, have strong feelings about American influence on the war and in world politics. “America influences most of the world to favour itself,” said Aitan. “It gets whatever it wants by exerting pressure on other countries.” Added Svetlana: “In general, there is a strong opinion that the US influence keeps many countries from helping Russia or trading with it.”

Their views, however, were varied on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “He was a comedian and I don’t take him seriously; he doesn’t have the education to rule the country,” said Aitan, as we discussed the war on the drive back from the opulent Catherine’s Palace on the outskirts of St. Petersburg. Svetalana said that though many Russians view him as western pawn, she did not, and felt sorry for him and the position he had been put in. Her friend, Lana, 53, who is also a tour guide in Moscow, too, is supportive. “Zelenskyy is the democratically elected president of Ukraine,” she said. “Russian propaganda works hard to persuade people that he is a puppet of the US and NATO.”

Do they think NATO will admit Ukraine? “Whatever Russians think about the Americans, we don’t consider them stupid enough to do so,” said Svetalana. “Americans are used to fighting with others’ hands.”

In spite of difficulties faced in recent times, opinion polls show that Putin remains the most popular politician in the country. In August, his approval rating stood at 80 per cent, higher that before the invasion of Ukraine, according to the Levada Centre. “Many people will say they like Putin, but many will refuse to say anything,” said Lana. “Russians are very cautious about expressing any criticism towards the president.” Who do they think will succeed Putin? “We are used to our leaders appearing from nowhere,” said Svetlana, as we view one of the Stalinist-era buildings in Moscow. “Who expected [Mikhail] Gorbachev, the youngest of all politburo members, to succeed [Konstantin] Chernenko? Who knew Putin before he was appointed by [Boris] Yeltsin? Russian history is full of surprises. Let us see.”

What do they think about Indians and India?

“Russians find Indians friendly, kind, and happy people,” said Lana. “They consider India a fast-developing, beautiful country with rich history and culture.” Svetlana said that Russians from older generations “still cherish warm memories of the once-strong and warm ties” with India. “Hindi movies used to be very popular in Soviet Russia,” she said. “In my mother’s generation they all knew Raj Kapoor’s song from Awaara by heart. In my youth, we were crazy about Mithun Chakraborty’s Disco Dancer.

Surnames of tour guides have been omitted to protect identity. All opinions expressed are personal.

the-effects-of-canada-s-liberal-immigration-policy-and-weak-counter-terrorism-laws

Sat Oct 07 12:41:05 IST 2023

On the outskirts of Castlegar, a little town in British Columbia, a statue of Russian novelist Leo Tolstoy stands tall in the garden of the Doukhobor Discovery Centre. Much before Khalistani terrorists brought a culture of guns and gangs to British Columbia, the province became synonymous with the nonviolent and pacifist ideals of the Doukhobors. A small ethno-religious group of Russian origin, the Doukhobors fled to Canada in the 1890s, fearing persecution from the Russian church and state. Tolstoy is said to have assisted in their mass migration, and his statue stands testimony to his efforts and Canada’s tradition of welcoming refugees.

Canada has come a long way since. Today, it has become the go-to place for migrants from across the world, including refugees from conflict regions. But among them, a number of terror operatives, ranging from the Islamic State (IS), Palestine’s Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah to Sri Lanka’s Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, have also found a safe haven for clandestine activities.

“Canada is hesitant to admit it, but the threats from immigrants is very palpable as it has also attracted terrorists, criminals and extremists,” says Wyatt Claypool, senior Canadian journalist. He cites the example of the 2018 Danforth shooting. “The police identified the gunman as Faisal Hussain, son of a Pakistani immigrant,” he says. “While some reports claimed that Hussain may have visited Pakistan before the shooting and that the Islamic State claimed the attack, there seemed to be a lot of hesitation to delve into the Islamist links to the incident. It was blamed on mental health issues finally.”

Moreover, Canada has been carrying out multiple repatriation operations for its nationals who were IS fighters following the dismantlement of the IS’s caliphate, a key priority of the United States. Ottawa was even lauded by Washington for its gesture. “We saw the IS fighters returning with no problem whatsoever,” says Claypool.

But what troubles Canadians more than terrorism is money laundering by front groups of extremist organisations. Recently, there were calls within Canada’s House of Commons to proscribe the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for its alleged links with global drug syndicates and money laundering activities of the Hezbollah, says Claypool. The Trudeau government was asked to take aggressive action, especially after the downing of Ukraine International Airlines flight 752, which took off from Tehran in 2020, killing all 176 passengers, including 55 Canadian citizens. “But the government has put the IRGC on some sort of immigration ban list, which does not mean anything because no IRGC member wants to move to Canada, except to use it as a base for clandestine activities,” says Claypool.

New Delhi’s charge that pro-Khalistani terrorists are using Canada as their base to carry out terror and criminal activities on Indian soil is no different. “There is this kind of assumption that you would be labelled racist or xenophobic or bigoted if you say anything about the Khalistan issue,” admits Claypool. He also agrees that Canada will not call them out and people are getting away because of its weak counter-terrorism policies.

India is not alone. For the last two decades, Dhaka has been asking Ottawa to extradite Nur Chowdhury, the self-confessed assassin of Bangladesh’s founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Its foreign minister A.K. Abdul Momen even said that Canada was ignoring their plea in the name of human rights.

Extraditions are not easy from Canada, especially when death penalty is possible or where a case can be made out that the individual is unlikely to receive fair trial. “There are potential complications in a few cases like the Hassan Diab case,” admits Ward Elcock, former chief of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. Diab, a Canadian citizen, was extradited to France in 2014 and tried in the 1980 bombing of a Paris synagogue. In April, a court in France sentenced him to life; the Trudeau government vowed to stand up for Canadians and their rights.

“Reluctance to act in national security matters can sour relationships with friendly countries looking for cooperation and collaborations in countering global threats like terrorism and financial crimes,” says Colombo-based international security expert Rohan Gunaratna, who wrote the foreword to Stewart Bell’s Cold Terror: How Canada Nurtures and Exports Terrorism Around the World.

Sri Lanka, too, has expressed concern over the clandestine activities of the banned LTTE in Canada to raise funds, procure weapons and even influence the vast diaspora of Sri Lankan Tamils.

Likewise, India has been trying to achieve a common ground with Canada on the Khalistan terror issue under successive prime ministers. Vaishali Basu Sharma, a strategic analyst at New Delhi-based Policy Perspective Foundation, said former prime minister Manmohan Singh during his 2010 trip to attend the G20 summit in Toronto had asked Canada “to stop people from using religious places to promote extremism”, a decade-long concern that has now led to the souring of diplomatic ties between the two countries.

Ottawa’s ties with Beijing are also strained, albeit for a different reason. Thanks to its liberal migrant policies, Chinese nationals, originally from Hong Kong, have found easy entry into and access to acquire assets or invest in Canada, says Jonathan Berkshire Miller, director of foreign affairs and national security at Ottawa’s Macdonald-Laurier Institute. China is probably the country most active in ‘foreign interference operations’in Canada. “There is absolutely a problem when Beijing-connected Chinese individuals come to Canada, not for the purpose of setting up legitimate businesses and operating them but basically for making Canada more reliant on the Chinese government,” says Claypool.

Srikanth Kondapalli, professor in Chinese studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, said Chinese interference in Canada was well-documented. There were fireworks between Beijing and Ottawa when Huawei heiress apparent Meng Wanzhou was detained in 2018 at Vancouver airport on a US warrant for alleged bank fraud and business dealings in Iran. She was allowed to leave the country later. In another instance, Kondapalli recalled how two Chinese scientists, researching the zoonotic virus from camels at the Winnipeg laboratory, travelled to Wuhan before the outbreak of Covid-19. “The case led to an investigation by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and demands for discussion in the House of Commons amid concerns of Chinese espionage. But the outcome of the probe isn’t known,”says Kondapalli.

Domestically, the migration problem is being compounded by thousands of asylum seekers entering Canada from the US every day from Roxham Road border crossing. “It has been a bit of a scam, bringing immigrants on the promise of jobs and happier lives as authorities turn a blind eye,” says Claypool. “The problem is we are overstocking our country and outpacing our level of home building. The dangerous outcome is that Canada is fast becoming a playground for Mexican drug cartels. The fentanyl crisis, especially in areas like Toronto and Vancouver, is out of control with number of deaths rising exponentially.”

In the same way, illegal firearms and gunrunning have given way to a new Canadian gun culture that was nonexistent at one point. Even as the Trudeau government is talking about a full ban on firearms, illegal firearms are making their way to pro-Khalistani groups.

It may do well for Trudeau to revisit Tolstoy’s wise words―“Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”

professor-and-author-rohan-gunaratna-interview

Sat Oct 07 12:38:42 IST 2023

As a specialist in global security affairs, Rohan Gunaratna believes that international security and intelligence services should shift from counter-terrorism cooperation to collaboration. “The key is to build common databases, exchange personnel, conduct joint training and operations….” says Gunaratna, who has authored more than 30 books, including Sri Lanka’s Easter Sunday Massacre: Lessons for the International Community (2023). At a time when India and Canada are at loggerheads over the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, leader of the Khalistan Tiger Force, his advice for countries is to resolve their differences behind the scenes, rather than fight. Excerpts:

Q/ How has Canada earned the tag of an immigrant country?

A/ Canada is the world’s most favoured country for migrants…. Immigrants compensate for labour shortage, an ageing population and declining birth rate. They make up more than one-fifth of the Canadian population―more than 8 million of the 36 million Canadians―and non-permanent residents add almost another million. As per the 2021 census, more than half (4.3 million) had migrated from Asia, with India, the Philippines and China leading the way. About two million migrated from Europe, a million from North and South America and more than eight lakh from Africa (led by Morocco, Nigeria and Algeria). The recent immigrant population of over 1.3 million people shows a trend towards more immigrants of Asian and African descent. The immigration from the Americas, Europe and Oceania is on the decline.

Q/ There are concerns over inimical elements from various countries entering Canada over the years.

A/ Canada hosts people from around the world, including from conflict regions. The migrants mostly live in ethnic and religious enclaves. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has steadfastly expanded immigration, which has enhanced his popularity and electability. Under Trudeau, immigration has increased to four lakh new residents per year, and Canada plans to welcome five lakh permanent residents each year by 2025. About 40,000 asylum seekers entered Canada through irregular border crossings from the US alone in 2022. Like all governments, Canada is screening all the applicants. However, due to the sheer volume of applicants, a few thousand former terrorists and criminals have infiltrated. The Canadian intelligence and law enforcement agencies need to work in close collaboration with foreign counterparts to prevent acts of terrorism and crime.

Q/ What are Sri Lanka’s concerns over LTTE activities on Canadian soil?

A/ The LTTE clandestinely raised funds in Canada and procured weapons from the US, Ukraine and North Korea, which were then used to bomb the Central Bank in Colombo in 1996. The bombing killed 91 people and injured 1,400 people…. It is not too late to trace and prosecute the masterminds and fundraisers, but Canada and Sri Lanka should work together on this case to send a clear message that terrorism will not be tolerated. The largest Sri Lankan population outside the island is in Canada. The Sri Lankan Tamil community migrated to Canada in three stages: before, during and after war. Most migrants have become Canadian citizens and they lead respectable lives. A few hundred are supporting the LTTE in an attempt to revive the group. Over the years, the Sri Lankan government is working closely with Canada. Despite some issues, it is vital for Colombo and Ottawa to maintain cordial relations.

Q/ The 9/11 terror attack was a wake-up call for the United States. Do you think all countries need to recognise terrorism as a global threat?

A/ The 9/11 attack by Al Qaeda on the US soil demonstrated that terrorists can operate across borders and strike their enemies at will. The US mounted operations overseas to find, fix and finish their enemies. After 9/11, the US also created a new architecture to protect its homeland. Otherwise, the US would have suffered gravely. For instance, the department of homeland security spent billions of dollars to create fusion centres and shared intelligence [with other countries]. Unless governments learn and adapt to the new and emerging threats, their countries will continue to suffer.

Q/ What is the way forward?

A/ With the global reach of threat groups increasing, international security and intelligence services should shift from counter-terrorism cooperation to collaboration. The key is to build common databases, exchange personnel, conduct joint training and operations, and share information, resources, experience and expertise. Rather than fight, they should resolve their differences behind the scenes.

canada-pm-justin-trudeau-sacrifices-ties-with-india-to-save-his-sagging-political-career

Sat Sep 23 17:55:25 IST 2023

If only you knew the power of the dark side. Or so said Darth Vader to Luke Skywalker just before he outs Star Wars’ biggest twist―that he is Skywalker’s daddy. It is a lesson that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seems to have taken from his favourite movie. Doing quite badly in opinion polls, Trudeau hopes that the power of the idea of Khalistan will power his revival.

Trudeau’s big statement von the floor of the Canadian parliament that “security agencies have been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar’’ and the subsequent expulsion of an Indian diplomat have pushed the India-Canada relationship into permafrost. India has come out all guns blazing, calling the allegations absurd and summoning the Canadian high commissioner to South Block for a dressing down. India also announced the expulsion a Canadian diplomat.

“This is a very complex state of affairs, one that goes far beyond the Indian lens,’’ said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center. “For Canada, there is a strong emphasis on rule of law, due process and freedom of speech. It means that Ottawa is not only unwilling to crack down on Sikh activism in Canada, but also that it will always condemn in the strongest terms the assassination of a Canadian citizen on its soil, no matter India’s contention that Nijjar was a terrorist.”

The expulsion of diplomats was only round one. Both countries have issued travel warnings for their citizens. “Government of India needs to take this matter with the utmost seriousness. We are doing that, we are not looking to provoke or escalate,” said Trudeau. The issue will continue to simmer, especially at the UN General Assembly session. A quarter century ago, Canada had registered a complaint against India over the nuclear tests. So, there is a history of using the UN as a platform to make a point.

On the Nijjar issue, no evidence has been shared so far, but Trudeau reached out to US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron. The episode could cast a shadow over India’s ties with countries such as the US, the UK, Australia and France―as all of them have expressed “concern’’ over Trudeau’s allegations. However, none of them would want to risk their ties with India, especially in the prevailing geopolitical context. “We are deeply concerned about the allegations referenced by Prime Minister Trudeau,’’ said Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the US National Security Council. “It is critical that Canada’s investigation proceed and the perpetrators be brought to justice.”

While Trudeau has not backed his charge with proof, he has counted on it taking away from India’s G20 success. It has come at a time when he is on the back foot domestically. Trudeau has been facing the toughest summer of his career yet. “Anyone but Trudeau is the mood in Canada,’’ said Munish Ohri, a Canadian businessman. The economy has not recovered from the blow dealt by the pandemic. “In the past two years, interest rates have jumped from 2.5 percent to 7 per cent,’’ he said. Those who survive on salaries are facing foreclosures.’’

Radio show host Jasbir Romana, too, pointed towards a political angle. “Trudeau has been lagging behind his opponent (Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre) by 10 per cent in latest opinion polls. His visit to India was botched up. So he has been on a spree pushing for more housing facilities and taking on grocery chain owners in a rude, un-Canadian manner.” The Nijjar episode, meanwhile, has ensured that the opposition has no choice, but to back him. And, for now, his numbers have started becoming better. “There have been no arrests,’’ said Harsh Pant of the Observer Research Foundation. “This is all about distraction. Trudeau has pushed the Conservatives into a corner. They have no choice but to back him as one cannot espouse another country’s interference in internal affairs.”

Trudeau’s father, Pierre, too, was notorious for his soft handling of Khalistani terrorists. When the Indira Gandhi government approached him in 1984 for the extradition of Khalistani terrorist Talwinder Singh Parmar who was accused of killing police officers in India, he refused to cooperate. Parmar was later implicated in the 1985 Kanishka aircraft bomb attack in which 329 people lost their lives. Trudeau Junior chose to accuse India on the floor of the parliament. “If you look at the way he did it,’’ said Pant, “it almost looks personal.” He said the US, the UK and Australia, too, faced the Khalistani protest issue, but they handled it differently. For instance, when the Indian consulate in San Francisco was targeted by Khalistani terrorists, Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, said his country was doing everything to ensure the safety of Indians with the help of law enforcement agencies.

The uneasiness regarding Canada’s handling of Khalistani extremism has been brewing for a while, but the Nijjar killing has made the situation worse. Trade talks between the two countries that were seemingly on track were suddenly called off on September 16. Earlier this year, Trudeau’s national security adviser Jody Thomas identified India as top source of foreign interference in Canada, along with Russia and Iran.

The challenge before both India and Canada is to keep the bilateral relationship going despite the animosity being at an all-time high. There is a lot at stake. Beyond the people-to-people connection between the two countries fuelled by the 1.8 million strong Indian community in Canada, there are also other ties. The Canadian pension funds have cumulatively invested around 55 billion dollars in India. The foreign direct investment from Canada now is around 4 billion dollars. The continuing tension could hurt business and economic ties. Said Kugelman, “Ominously, we are seeing long-standing tensions over Sikh issues steep into areas of relationship that withstood tensions.”

canadian-sikh-politician-gurmant-grewal-interview

Sat Sep 23 12:42:12 IST 2023

GURMANT GREWAL was a member of the Canadian parliament thrice and was the first Sikh to hold the position of the deputy house leader of the official opposition of Canada. Grewal and his wife, Neena, were the first couple to serve in the House of Commons of Canada at the same time. When India-Canada bilateral relationship hit rock bottom in 1998 following India’s nuclear tests, he served as a bridge between the two countries. In an exclusive interview with THE WEEK, Grewal speaks about the Nijjar murder controversy and its likely impact on India-Canada ties. Excerpts:

Q\ How do you look at the latest crisis?

A\ I hope we can move forward and address the issue. In 1998, when India conducted the nuclear tests, Canada complained to the United Nations. Diplomatic relations were broken and Canada imposed sanctions on India. After Stephen Harper was defeated in 2015, it has been a roller-coaster ride. I think the lacuna has been in communication, transparency and planning. The values of India and Canada are the same―democracy and freedom of expression. In Canada, the separatist side has to make their voice heard in a peaceful manner. The Quebec referendum in 1996-1997 was held in the same way. They are allowed to be heard, be it the Uyghurs or even the Khalistanis, if they do it in a peaceful manner. I believe a better communication channel is required. No country will like it if there is a killing on its soil. We don’t know the details, but we need transparency.

Q\ There are questions about how Nijjar was granted citizenship.

A\ In my opinion, once he became a Canadian citizen, his papers would have gone through the scrutiny of the process, and his background is irrelevant.

Q\ Prime Minister Trudeau’s ratings are low. Could the latest crisis be a political move, rather than a diplomatic one?

A\ Trudeau’s ratings are lower, but the official opposition party did not oppose his statement. They also said that the evidence should be made public.

Q\ Do you think this might affect trade ties?

A\ Both India and Canada said that trade negotiations should be concluded this year. But those are on a pause.

Q\ Canada has accused China of interfering in its internal affairs.

A\ In 1998, I was privy to documents on China’s interference. A committee has been formed to look at the interference of China with a new chairman and it is expected to start work soon. There are allegations against North Korea and Russia. I fear that they will investigate and include India, too, in the list.