donald-trump-s-anti-nato-rhetoric-could-force-europe-to-set-up-its-own-military-industrial-complex

Sat Feb 24 11:55:18 IST 2024

THE RUSSIAN WIDOW stood at the podium―bold, beautiful and brave in bereavement. Her husband, 47-year-old Alexei Navalny, a relentless opponent of President Vladimir Putin, lay dead in a freezing Siberian gulag. Instead of comforting her traumatised children in Moscow, she chose to speak to western leaders and generals attending the Munich Security Conference, the “Davos of Defence”. They gave a standing ovation before and after her impactful speech. Trembling with grief and fury, she said “I want Putin, his entourage, to know they will pay for what they have done. That day will come very soon.”

The curse of widows and orphans come true, so it is said. But geopolitics is such that Yulia’s wishes, however fervent, are unlikely to materialise anytime soon. Western leaders quickly blamed Putin for Navalny’s untimely death―many of Putin’s other opponents met untimely deaths, poisoned or “falling off” buildings. But piling more punishment on Putin is arguably pointless. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the west had imposed sanctions―spanning 18,000 measures―frozen assets worth $300 billion and amputated Russia from the global financial system. The west’s tool box of sanctions is emptying, but Russia’s war machine grinds on.

Oil at $80 a barrel fuels Putin’s war in Ukraine. This protracted war favours Russia, which has commandeered its heavy industry into domestic weapons production. Russia enjoys economic independence and manpower, the shortage of which is Ukraine’s big challenge. With over six million Ukrainians fleeing the country and nearly four million internal refugees, 25 per cent of Ukraine’s population is displaced. Russian occupation hampers Ukraine’s grain and steel exports. It also delays, if not aborts, Ukraine’s accession into NATO and the European Union.

Ukrainian stockpiles of artillery, aircraft and missiles have dwindled because of the west’s war fatigue and the Republicans thwarting the $60 billion aid to Ukraine in the US Congress. “The world has got rougher,” said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, a staunch Ukraine supporter. Though wars rage in Gaza and Yemen, she meant Russia and the scary spectre of the United States as an undependable ally, more so if Donald Trump is re-elected president.

Trump’s bombast from a recent election rally shook Europe. He said he would “encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want” with NATO members who fail to spend 2 per cent of their GDP on defence. He has neither retracted nor apologised for shredding a foundational principle of NATO: the US must protect a NATO ally from attack.

In his first term as president, Trump had threatened to withdraw from NATO. He has now brazenly invited an attack on an ally. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that Trump’s comments undermined “all our security, including that of the US”. President Joe Biden called it dumb, shameful, dangerous and un-American. Critics, however, would argue that it is rather American to let down partners.

British journalist Alec Russell warned that Europeans would have to start planning for war without America. Von der Leyen announced Europe’s plans to do just that: “subsidise our own defence sector”. The world now confronts the birth of a second military-industrial complex (MIC), as if the one in the US has not done enough global damage. To build the MIC, the same emergency taxpayer model deployed to manufacture Covid vaccines will be used. Some European countries may oppose the plan, but defence manufacturers like France and Germany will push for it. So will east European NATO members who fear neighbouring Russia.

Last year, military experts mocked Russia’s decrepit war weaponry. Now there is a drumbeat of competitive scaremongering about an imminent “Russian attack” on a NATO country. It mimics the American MIC’s pressure tactics to invest more in defence. Said Andrew Cockburn, who authored a book on the American war machine, “It is no coincidence that we are now suddenly hearing about what terrible threats Russia and the Chinese hypersonic missiles are. They whip up fake threats.”

Citizens dislike diversion of government spending on health care, education and pensions into defence. After the Cold War ended, global defence expenditure fell. The funds earmarked for defence were spent on welfare, laying the foundation for Europe’s superb quality of life. But as taxpayers’ money is needed for developing the MIC, people need to feel the fear.

Real or perceived, threats enable governments to spend money on defence, as in Japan and Germany. Faced with a rising China threat, the “pacifist” Japanese government announced a five-year plan to increase defence expenditures by 60 per cent. Germany pledged an extra 5 per cent of its GDP to modernise its forces. Currently, Germany is the world’s worst-performing big economy and weak growth has pushed Germany, Japan and the UK into “technical recession”. Still, Germany, Britain and France are now in the forefront of weaponising Ukraine’s military.

Trump’s anti-NATO bluster is serious, but not catastrophic. Of 31 NATO countries, 18 will meet the 2 per cent defence expenditure target this year. Trump may be reelected, but the US has already signed agreements with Arctic-Nordic-Baltic countries, securing access to 35 military bases close to Russia’s border.

Northern Europe is the springboard for any confrontation between NATO and Russia. With its nuclear arsenal, the US remains Europe’s ultimate security guarantor. But the recent arrangements anticipate a future where north European countries assume greater responsibility for their own defence, enabling the US to shift its focus on containing China’s rise.

Announcing her decision to seek a second term from Munich, Von der Leyen said she would consolidate and fortify the EU’s defence industry. Business is big. Navalny’s doomed life ended, so did the applause for his grieving widow. Delegates returned to 21st century realpolitik: war is back! Half a century of peace that brought immense prosperity flickers like a blip in history.

political-analysts-in-russia-believe-that-alexei-navalny-s-death-would-not-tarnish-putin-s-reputation

Mon Feb 26 10:54:36 IST 2024

Alexei Navalny, probably the most famous critic of the Kremlin, died on February 16, in a high-security penal colony nicknamed ‘Polar Wolf’, located in the Yamalo-Nenets region, north of the Arctic Circle. Navalny was serving a 19-year sentence on charges of extremism since August 2023. Before his final incarceration, he had to face several other legal cases, sentences, home arrests and an episode of alleged poisoning in 2020.

Navalny led the Anti-Corruption Foundation, which he set up in 2011. The group was known for its videos on social media on the alleged riches of Russia’s top officials and billionaires. Russia designated it as an extremist organisation in 2021 and it was liquidated by the Moscow City Court. In 2022, when Navalny was already in jail, he announced the relaunch of the foundation, now international, with a funding of €50,000 that he got from the Sakharov Prize awarded by the European parliament.

While Navalny was popular across the world, it was different in his home country. His personality and views, his entire political career―something that skips the eye of outsiders―turned many people off in Russia. As a Russian journalist noted, “He was certainly far more popular and loved abroad than in Russia.”

Navalny was born in 1976 in the Moscow region to an army officer hailing from Ukraine―a village near Chernobyl―and a lab technician. He got his law degree from the Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia in Moscow, and in 2001, he got a degree in finance from the Finance Academy under the Russian government.

Navalny entered politics in 2000 with the then vibrant, liberal Yabloko party. While at Yabloko, he met several activists who would later become prominent faces of Russian opposition, such as Ilya Yashin and Nikita Belykh. A year later, he was elected to the council of the Moscow branch of the party.

In 2007, Navalny founded the national-democratic movement called Narod, along with writer and former member of the National Bolshevik Party, Zakhar Prilepin (who was severely injured last year in an assassination attempt that Moscow has blamed on the United States and Ukraine), and former member of the Saint Petersburg legislative assembly, Sergey Gulyaev. One of the sponsors of the movement was Stanislav Belkovsky, once a mid-level Kremlin adviser and now a popular commentator for western media outlets, living in Israel. Navalny was soon expelled from Yabloko “for causing political damage to the party, in particular for nationalist activities”.

During this time, two notorious videos of Navalny campaigning for gun rights to fight Muslim migrants from former Soviet republics―he compared them to “cockroaches”―and advocating for deportation of “non-Russians” appeared. Narod’s activities soon came to a stop, but Navalny’s graph continued to rise. He chose an indirect political route by purchasing shares in state-owned companies and subsequently leveraging his shareholder status to raise concerns about mismanagement and corruption. Speaking to the Kommersant-Dengi magazine in 2009, Navalny explained his interest in politics: “Old opposition leaders are so irrelevant that a smart, young person will be noticed right away.”

Navalny’s career took a sharp turn in 2010. Upon the recommendation of three people who are some of the most prominent critics of the Kremlin (and are based outside Russia)―economist Sergei Guriev, journalist Yevgenia Albats and chess grandmaster-turned political activist Garry Kasparov―Navalny joined a six-month course at Yale University under the Yale World Fellows programme. “Alexei was a Yale World Fellow from the class of 2010, who embodied the ideals of the open society and dedicated his life to the pursuit of a better Russia,” wrote Emma Sky, director of the International Leadership Centre, Yale University, after Navalny’s death.

Navalny returned to Russia after the course. Months later, tens of thousands of people took to the streets in what the western media labelled as the “biggest protests of the Putin era”. The Bolotnaya protests, which denounced what demonstrators deemed as a flawed electoral process, represented a crucial juncture for both Russia’s opposition movement and the government’s stance towards street demonstrations. These protests would shape the trajectory of Russian politics for the following decade. That was also when Navalny began to gain attention from western leaders and media. To be sure, that was also the time when he would be noticed by Russians – polls showed awareness about Navalny increased from 6 per cent in April 2011 to 48 per cent in September 2014.

The timing of Navalny’s alleged killing―for which Russia and the west blame each other―appears suspicious. It came hours before Ukraine announced its withdrawal from the strategic eastern city of Avdiivka after several months of fighting. It also coincided with a US congressional vote on a $60 billion military package to Ukraine and with the Munich Security Conference where world leaders discussed Russia’s threat to the world, while keeping Moscow out. Navalny’s wife, Yulia Navalnaya, was in Munich, and she was swiftly given the stage to deliver a speech condemning Russian President Vladimir Putin. Two days later, she said she would continue her husband’s work and called on his supporters in Russia to join her in fighting Putin. She also said that their team knew why Navalny was killed by Putin, how it was executed, and that they would reveal the details.

The news of Navalny’s death came just a few days after American political commentator Tucker Carlson published his interview with Putin, making the Kremlin’s point of view accessible to western audiences. While Navalny’s death and the west’s reaction to it remained top news, many other important things were largely ignored by the world media, such as the trial of whistleblower journalist Julian Assange which began in London on February 20. Ahead of the hearing, Assange’s wife, Stella, said her husband would die if he was extradited to the US. The death of US-Chilean journalist, Gonzalo Lira, which took place in January, too, did not find much mention in the west. Lira died in an Ukrainian prison where he was kept after trying to flee to Europe.

Political analysts in Russia believe that Navalny’s passing, which came just a month before the elections in March, would not shift the political landscape in Russia or tarnish Putin’s reputation. This assertion is grounded in the perceived limited relevance of Navalny or any other liberal opposition figure in contemporary Russia.

Hours after Navalny’s death, a video surfaced online. It was first released by Russian security services in 2021. In the clip, allegedly taken in 2012, a person who looks like Navalny’s right-hand man Vladimir Ashurkov can be seen talking to a British intelligence officer. “If we had more money, we could expand our opportunities, of course. If somebody would spend a little money… $10 million-$20 million a year on supporting this, we would see a different picture,” he can be heard saying.

We may perhaps never know what happened in ‘Polar Wolf’, or who actually backed Navalny, but what he embodied was an image of the ‘ideal’ opposition leader―young, handsome, bold and supported by a loving wife and children. For some people, it was undeniably an attractive image.

But in reality, the complexities of Russia, its geographic, economic and geopolitical realities, require not just an image, but also a vision, a programme and skills, and also support from the established political system. Russia is not a marginal regional player where candidates can be placed, tried, and replaced at will. It is a nuclear power able to influence the global military, economic and strategic balance, even though the west still prefers to deny it.

While in jail, Navalny used to communicate with his supporters through social media posts delivered through his lawyers. His irony-filled posts on his life in prison encouraged people to not give up on making Russia a better place―a message relevant to many, irrespective of their political preferences. However, neither Navalny, nor the collective opposition, articulated the vision for Russia based on today’s realities that are different from those of 2021 and particularly those of 2011.

Navalny’s brand will remain alive long after his demise, but the alternative acceptable to Russia of 2024 and beyond has to emerge from within.

Ksenia Kondratieva, a journalist based in Saint Petersburg, works as India editor at rt.com.

artist-cum-scientist-priyanka-das-rajkakati-opens-up-about-her-interactions-with-modi-and-macron

Sat Feb 03 14:55:13 IST 2024

She is known to possess an empathetic mind of remarkable maturity that is far beyond her years. Priyanka Das Rajkakati, who is in her early 30s, remains rooted despite rubbing shoulders with the world’s best scientific minds. She was twice part of French President Emmanuel Macron’s team during interactions with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. She says Macron is very warm, with a sharp wit and a great sense of humour. Having observed Modi and Macron from close quarters, Priyanka feels they share a sense of mutual trust, which has been a vital ingredient in the growing India-France bilateral partnership. The artist-cum-aerospace scientist―she loves the dual identity―gave Senior Special Correspondent Sanjib Kr Baruah an outsider’s ‘insider perspective’ of India-France relations.

My childhood was spent in Delhi, where I attended The Mother’s International School, immersed in Indo-French culture. It only felt natural to move to France in 2013 to pursue higher studies. I also had another agenda for choosing France: the freedom to chart out a career in both arts and science. Now, a decade later, French President Emmanuel Macron knows me by my name and is familiar with my work―an immensely validating experience as a cross-cultural, nomadic artist-scientist.

I was privileged to be seated close to President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the dining table during the Bastille Day celebrations in Paris last July. Then, this year for the Republic Day in India, I was grateful to have been invited back to be a part of an event with President Macron in Jaipur on January 25.

Meeting heads of state is always an interesting experience, like having the fourth wall broken in a film. As a scientist, while I do have to adopt a neutral, dispassionate stance, as an artist, I suppose I can permit myself to share my perspective of the human beings behind such positions of responsibility. Up close, President Macron is indeed very warm and seemingly curious about you, with a sharp wit and a great sense of humour. He offered to introduce me to Prime Minister Modi last year during the state dinner, and then proceeded to take my photo with the prime minister. It is a much-treasured possession.

In Jaipur this time, my role was to facilitate his interaction with a select group of bright students learning French and aspiring to go to France, and hearing him speak about me as someone who has charted out a successful career for herself in France was a very humbling experience. In fact, he not only remembered me from last year’s dinner, but also remembered the painting I had presented him then. Of course, on both occasions, I had made it a point to wear the traditional Assamese ‘mekhela saador’, which not only helped me represent my Assamese roots, but also helped me stand out.

Having seen from close quarters the president and the prime minister interacting with each other, one can easily sense their mutual trust, which has been a vital ingredient in the rapidly warming India-France bilateral relationship. Even the attitude of the French people towards India and Indians has changed dramatically in recent years. If it was all about India’s poverty in the past, now it is about the vibrancy of a youthful India receiving its due at the high table of the comity of nations.

This is especially important for people like me, trying to keep a foot in my country of origin and another where life has led me. It has not exactly been easy, to establish myself as an artist with a scientific background, but the challenge has indeed taken me to some interesting places. Being a part of some prestigious institutes has opened many doors for me. Hence, I am grateful for my education. After graduating in physics from St Stephen’s College in Delhi, I joined Ecole Polytechnique in Paris, where I studied computer science, and then finished with a PhD from ISAE-Supaero in aerospace engineering, both premier institutes in France.

On the side, I continued exploring projects through technology. I have been an artist in residence at space conferences, converting scientific research into tangible pieces of art, which can also be used by scientists as engaging, visual representations of their work. I have sent a piece of my artwork to space as part of the Moon Gallery project, with the aim of provoking thought about which earthian aspects should interplanetary societies of the future take with them.

Currently, I am working on an art-science initiative called RiVeins, where the hypothesis of my research is that merely developing technologies, such as for flood warning, is not sufficient if we do not consider the vulnerable human aspect in their design, and that art can be the perfect medium to close this growing gap between cutting-edge science and society. I am also working as the head of special projects for a French company called vorteX-io, which is developing an innovative and intelligent river forecasting service. I am leading the WHYLD (Worldwide Hydrological Large-scale Database) project, and I hope to eventually partner with entities in India to adapt such a system back home, especially in Assam. My parents are from some of Assam’s most flood-prone districts.

So basically, I am now at the crossroads of three identities―French, Indian and Assamese. And I am glad that India-France bilateral ties are at their best now.

former-high-commissioner-to-pakistan-ajay-bisaria-interview

Sat Jan 27 12:06:09 IST 2024

Exclusive Interview/ Ajay Bisaria, former high commissioner to Pakistan

AJAY BISARIA HAD just 72 hours to pack his bags and leave Islamabad. The Indian high commissioner to Pakistan was expelled by the host country in 2019―the fallout of India repealing Article 370, ending the special status for Jammu and Kashmir. The only other Indian high commissioner who had to leave Pakistan in a hurry was Vijay K. Nambiar, after the attack on the Indian Parliament in 2001. But Nambiar could even manage a round of golf before his departure. Bisaria did not have such luck. The difference, he writes, was that Nambiar was withdrawn by India, while he had his marching orders from the Pakistani government.

Bisaria’s book, Anger Management: The Troubled Diplomatic Relationship between India and Pakistan, is well researched and is full of interesting anecdotes. He reveals how G. Parthasarathy, the then high commissioner, had to answer prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s questions on old Hindi hits which were being belted out by the Punjab Police band in Lahore during the famous bus yatra by prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 1999. There is also the advice by former diplomat Satinder Lambah to never discuss Kashmir in Pakistan after 6pm. In an exclusive interview with THE WEEK, Bisaria speaks about the book, his experiences in Pakistan, Indian foreign policy and world politics. Excerpts:

Q/ Why the title Anger Management?

A/ It is a playful title. There is a serious undercurrent. There is a lot of anger, passion and hatred―from the time of partition, and its aftermath. [There is] anger about the four wars, about Kashmir, about territory, about Bangladesh, about Siachen. There is India’s anger about terrorism and Mumbai. The management is often in writings on Pakistan, on policy. People say it is about managing the relationship, which means there is no grand strategy to resolve this conundrum. What you really have is perhaps a way of tactical adjustments, so that it does not get worse, rather than a strategic reset, which says we can be like Germany and France. We do not talk of that model at all.

Q/ Can you describe your last few days in Pakistan?

A/ We did not anticipate this overreaction. We thought there will be a lot of anger, there will be a lot of rhetoric [over the abrogation of Article 370]. But it just seemed to run over. On August 7, 2019, we heard that they asked to close down the high commission. As I mentioned in the book, we were not sure that day whether they would say, ‘Let us break off diplomatic relations’, or ‘Shut down the mission and ask the Indians to leave’. Or they would simply downgrade the mission and throw out 50 per cent of our people. In the end, asking the high commissioner to leave was the least disruptive choice. The only question then was, how much time do I have? I had two chefs and a house, and my wife was not in town.

I had 72 hours, just about enough time to do some analysis and to pack up and leave. My whole exit was also something that had to be choreographed and planned because I did not want to end up being on the Wagah border, and a grandstanding happening about being allowed to leave or not. I just left quietly, taking a flight.

Q/ Do you feel that Imran Khan could have solved the problem if he did not overreact?

A/ Absolutely. Leadership matters―how leaders react, what they do, how they handle a sensitive issue, it matters. Imran Khan could have taken that view and not bang that door shut. Because at the same time, they were talking of geoeconomics and trying to find a modus vivendi with India. Imran’s phase was a wasted opportunity, because the army seemed to be going through a rethink about the India relationship. The army was telling us or was giving us the impression that Imran had run away with those talking points. He was taking them to such levels of public statements that it became very hard for anyone to roll back.

Q/ You also talk about a tipoff about an attack in Kashmir.

A/ It was from an ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) source about a possible Al Qaeda attack in Kashmir. This was related to Zakir Musa, a terrorist who had been killed. I mentioned this incident to illustrate the point that strange things have happened in this relationship. This is not for the first time that either of these (Indian and Pakistani) agencies would have informed each other [about]some bit of live intelligence of relevance. But also, with what happened at that point of time, we can only speculate that they did not want another Pulwama. They were trying to improve the atmospherics with India, particularly in the context of a possible meeting in Bishkek between Imran and Prime Minister Modi. I just use this episode to illustrate that not everything is one little narrative of complete hostility.

Q/ You talk about an incident where Manvendra Singh, former MP from Barmer, asked your help to transport the body of an old lady who had gone to visit her relatives in Pakistan and how you contacted the Pakistani civil society.

A/ What it represents is the latent goodwill in the relationship, which stems from these people-to-people connections, what we often call cultural intimacy. I also caution that we should not overstate the case, because we find public narratives and people-to-people relationship also often get poisoned by the official narrative, of extreme hatred. We should park it in our mind as an asset, something that can be deployed, because there is still a good deal of cultural intimacy even among people who don’t share the partition links.

Q/ Do you think that India and Pakistan can be like France and Germany someday?

A/ If you look at very long term, there is certainly a nonzero probability of the relationship becoming like France and Germany. But there are many hurdles. It can become way better. Or, worse? We could just muddle along, as we have been doing. Leadership is important and diplomacy is important. We need to be very consciously understanding this issue and creatively dealing with it.

Q/ You suggest a model where India engages the Pakistan army.

A/ I would certainly advocate policy where we followed twin tracks of active defence―where we have a lower tolerance of terrorism―and deal with it kinetically, in the sub-conventional space. We have an answer for it and we make the costs so high that the Pakistan establishment abandons what is called the strategic culture of jihadism. But accompanied by that we need flexible, creative and calibrated engagement. For instance, right now is not the right time to talk to Pakistan, because we don’t know whom to talk to till the elections are held. Within that, it is important to triangulate anything that we talk with the civilians, with the army, through whatever means―direct or indirect. We have seen the precedent of Sharif, [going it] alone. He [was] with Vajpayee on the Lahore bus yatra, and had invited Prime Minister Modi. But the army was not on board. So he could not deliver, and get the other stakeholders on board. This is the reason why I look at 2024 with some cautious optimism. We could have a political configuration starring Sharif, who would be backed this time by the army. If both Prime Minister Modi and Sharif are in their legacy terms, they might prefer to leave a legacy of peace, than one of war.

Q/ How do you look at Pakistan elections? Sharif has a starring role, but do you think that the army has fixed everything else with Imran so that it can possibly look at Sharif winning with legitimacy?

A/ They are certainly moving in that direction. But it is not an easy task. They like to do election engineering, but they have to do industrial scale management. If Imran’s cadres are to be believed, there is a 70 per cent to 80 per cent wave in his favour. That makes it harder to manage those election results.

They do typically some pre-election engineering, like they will have a few parties suddenly folding in and supporting Sharif. But their worry at this point is that Sharif has not captured the imagination [of the voters] even in Punjab the way they would have expected. There is a certain conversation going on, on postponing the elections. The mood generally is to have them done. [The process] to manage those elections so that the PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) and Imran are extinguished completely and [to launch] project Nawaz has begun.

Q/ What is it about Imran? How do you explain his popularity?

A/ Imran was too good to be true. He had charisma. Three successive army chiefs believed that they were wasting their time on Sharif and the Pakistan Peoples Party. [General] Bajwa believed in this project in the beginning very strongly. The problem is that Imran could not deliver on governance. On economic governance, he was quite a failure. Even on foreign policy, he created a big mess from their point of view, which made them want to step in. But most important, he pushed back on the army in its internal management of who would become the director-general of the ISI. All that added to the army saying that this was a mistake.

I recall when Imran was coming in, there were a lot of younger army officers apparently saying, ‘Be careful. He will, in a couple of years, develop a mind of his own, and he may want to take the country in a different direction.’ That was exactly what happened.

Q/ One of the factors that is going to affect the India-Pakistan relationship is geopolitics. The big power game has begun again. How do you see that panning out, especially with a belligerent China and the US?

A/ Major powers have always played a role. The current geopolitical challenge for Pakistan is happening against the backdrop of a severe economic crisis, accompanied by a security and political crisis. They are facing a global crisis with the US-China standoff, and [looking at] how to balance the two powers. They need both for economic sustenance. China can give direct loans and the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) investments. But the US is required for IMF loans. Since August 15, 2021 [and] the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, their geopolitical rents have dried up. [The rent for their] strategic location, which they used to earn through the Cold War, the Afghan war and the war on terror, has suddenly dried up. Pakistan is floundering. The central problem for them, apart from the Afghan crisis, is this need to balance the US and China.

Q/ Pakistan has always claimed strategic depth in Afghanistan. There is also the proxy war of the Khalistan in Canada.

A/ Afghanistan is certainly the bigger challenge, the biggest for Pakistan in a security sense. In the two years post August 2021, Pakistan’s central objectives were not met. The opposite happened. What did they expect with the Taliban? One, they recognise the Durand Line (Pakistan-Afghanistan) border and respect it. Second, they would control the TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan) and not let them attack Pakistan. And third, keep the Indians out. On all three fronts, the Taliban has done the opposite. India has the coordination mission. They are not really throwing India out. From our point of view, Pakistan’s whole relevance to Afghanistan has gone down.

The Khalistani separatism and Pakistan’s support is well known, right from the 1970s. They use a low cost option of going to the diaspora communities and trying to radicalise them. A lot of them are invited to Pakistan. This is something that Pakistan does and will continue to do. We are aware of it, we need to keep watching it very carefully. In Canada, it also plays into the internal politics, less than, say in the US, Australia, Germany or the UK.

is-france-now-india-s-most-important-supplier-of-military-equipment

Sat Jan 13 12:43:08 IST 2024

On May 11, 1998, prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee gave the world a shock by announcing that India had exploded the nuclear bomb again. The tests were conducted in Pokhran, in the deserts of Rajasthan, where India tested its first nuclear device in 1974 under Indira Gandhi. The west, led by the United States, was furious and sanctions followed. But there was an exception. French president Jacques Chirac went against the western consensus and chose to pursue closer ties with India.

Cut to the present, when US President Joe Biden expressed his inability to attend the Republic Day celebrations as chief guest, there was no real panic in the corridors of the South Block. Because Indian diplomats knew that they could bank on the ever-dependable French. And Jawed Ashraf, the Indian ambassador in Paris, sprung into action.

Soon and sure enough, on December 22, President Emmanuel Macron took to X to confirm that he would be attending the Republic Day celebrations as chief guest. Less than seven months ago, on July 14, it was Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was the guest of honour at the Champs-Elysees in Paris during the Bastille Day celebrations, which, as the French national day, commemorates the storming of the Bastille prison in 1789 during the French Revolution.

That day, as Rafale fighters from the Indian Air Force flew overhead, Macron, with Modi at his side, said, “[India] is a giant in the history of the world which will have a determining role in our future.” Apart from telephonic interactions, the two leaders have met several times in the last two years―in Paris on an official visit by Modi in May 2022, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in November 2022, in Hiroshima in May 2023 during the G7 summit and during the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023. “With this new―and somewhat last-minute―visit to India, Macron intends to show his personal commitment to the bilateral partnership as well as the staunchness of France’s engagement with India,” said Isabelle Saint-Mezard, associate research fellow at the French think tank IFRI (French Institute of International Relations).

In the burgeoning India-France relationship, it is the defence vertical that leads the way, with France being a traditionally important supplier with a vibrant military production ecosystem on continental Europe and an increasingly aspirational India being a prominent buyer. The numbers speak for themselves. A March 2022 SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) report says that India’s share of arms import from Russia came down to 46 per cent in 2017-2021 from 69 per cent in 2012-2017. France, meanwhile, recorded an eleven-fold growth during the same period, making it India’s second-largest arms supplier after Russia.

Supporting the French quest to secure a key presence in the Indian market is the legacy factor. The state-of-the-art Rafale fighters follow a long line of French exports. There is the Mirage 2000 multirole fighter aircraft from the Dassault stable, the Chetak, Cheetah and Cheetal helicopters that have their origins in the French Alouette and Lama helicopters, the Scorpene submarines, diesel engines for submarines and ships, anti-submarine warfare sonars, radars and the Milan anti-tank missiles.

France was the first major western power to ink a long-term strategic partnership with India in the multipolar context, finalising the deal in 1998. Now French strike weapons like the R.550 Magic air-to-air missiles, Exocet anti-ship missiles, the MICA missile system, SCALP air-launched cruise missiles and the Hammer air-to-surface missiles are at the frontline of the Indian offensive armoury. India has recently placed orders for 26 naval variants of the Rafale fighter and three Scorpene class submarines. The new fighter jets will be for the naval air fleet onboard the aircraft carriers INS Vikrant and INS Vikramaditya.

As India is on a mission to broad-base its military sourcing, France, with its dependability, warm bilateral vibes and its arsenal of powerful and time-tested military systems, is an obvious choice to be a strategic partner. This is especially true as Russia, which has been New Delhi’s traditional partner for decades, is experiencing a major turmoil caused by the Ukraine war. India is also concerned about the burgeoning Sino-Russian ties, which have strengthened during the war.

India needs more platforms where nuclear systems can be mounted. With Sino-Indian ties at an all-time low, such systems are needed urgently for deterrence. Rafale jets can be made nuclear-weapons compliant more easily than US platforms as Washington often imposes restrictive clauses on using its platforms. India is also concerned that despite the growing ties with the US, Washington remains cagey about supplying its most modern platforms to Delhi. Not offering the F-35 fifth generation stealth fighter aircraft to India―when many countries across the world operate it―is just a case in point.

Following the mega military deals, India expects French support on critical geopolitical issues, including New Delhi’s long-pending demand for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Finally, India believes that strong ties with France offer it more space for pursuing a policy of ‘strategic autonomy’.

France, meanwhile, has recognised the evolving nature of the global order, which mandates a shift from the traditional focus on the Atlantic theatre to a bigger role for the Indo-Pacific. The US has already made the Indo-Pacific its key strategic priority in an attempt to check the growing Chinese influence in southeast Asia and the Pacific rim. India’s geographical position is of pivotal interest to the French in its quest to retain global relevance. “France sees India as a major partner at the bilateral, regional and global levels,” said Saint-Mezard. “At the bilateral level, the two states have built a high degree of mutual trust over the years. Their cooperation covers different areas, including that of military equipment and technology, which is deemed critical from a French point of view.”

The French economy is in bad shape. Macron hopes that an abiding relationship with the world’s biggest importer of weapon systems and one of the most promising economies in the world would offer a panacea from the economic woes. In that context, Macron’s visit―which is based on a realistic assessment of his country’s strategic, business, cultural and political interests―may be a harbinger of a much deeper French connection for India.

french-ambassador-to-india-thierry-mathou-interview

Sat Jan 13 12:40:03 IST 2024

Interview/ Thierry Mathou, French ambassador to India

How do you look at President Macron’s visit to India?

It is a historic visit that demonstrates the special character and deep mutual trust of India-France friendship. It comes a few months after Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Paris as guest of honour of France’s national day and will mark the sixth participation of France as guest of honour on India’s Republic Day―the highest for any nation. President Macron’s visit will also seal the ambitious renewal of the India-France strategic partnership that the two leaders decided on July 14 in Paris and give further impetus to our common goals under the three pillars of the Horizon 2047 Roadmap―partnership for security and sovereignty, partnership for the planet and partnership for the people.

India considers France a dependable friend. How does France view India?

France and India have always stood by each other, in good times and bad. This unwavering solidarity, combined with our common quest for strategic autonomy in a multipolar world, is what makes the time-tested relationship so unique. France sees India as a major, responsible power that has a key role to play in bridging divides and advancing solutions to global challenges. That is also why France has always supported a permanent seat for India at the UN Security Council.

Do you think there could be more areas of military convergence?

Defence cooperation is a long-standing pillar of our strategic partnership. France is committed to being India’s top partner in developing its strategic autonomy and working together on the technologies and capabilities of the future. The operational cooperation between our armed forces is also outstanding, with regular joint army, navy and air exercises that raise our level of interoperability and demonstrate our capacity to act together as net security providers in the Indo-Pacific.

why-maldives-has-much-more-to-gain-by-keeping-india-on-its-side

Sat Jan 13 12:36:05 IST 2024

THE MUIZZU GOVERNMENT in the Maldives seems to be getting into hot water as far as its relationship with India goes. Even before assuming office as president, Mohamed Muizzu was unambiguous about his alignment with China and his disdain for India. The relationship between the Maldives and India has since headed consistently southwards.

The latest in the series of overt contempt for India has been the derogatory comments made by three Maldivian deputy ministers against Prime Minister Narendra Modi after he visited Lakshadweep. To its credit, the Muizzu government promptly distanced itself from the comments and suspended the ministers. This was surprising, so I think there may have been some strong signalling by India.

The mocking ministers may have perceived Modi’s visit as part of an effort to develop Lakshadweep as a tourist destination rivalling the Maldives. Perhaps an insecurity complex kicked in, since development of Lakshadweep would have the potential to dent the tourism economy of the Maldives. While that would be some distance away, if India seriously applies its mind to develop world-class tourism in Lakshadweep, nobody can stop it from doing so, least of all the Maldives. There has been discussion about this in the past as well, but ecological considerations and concerns of the local population have held India back. It must be done soonest as it will transform the lives and economy of the Union territory.

Rewind a few weeks. Ever since Muizzu took up his presidency, there has been a clamour that Indian troops and military detachments leave the Maldives. The Indian military presence there is minimal, restricted to skeleton diplomatic staff, naval Dornier and advanced light helicopter (ALH) detachments, and a support team for the patrol craft gifted to the Maldivian Coast Guard. These can be pulled back very easily.

The Maldives has an exclusive economic zone of 9,23,322 square kilometres, and has neither the capability nor the capacity to monitor these vast sea areas. Hence, it was at the request of the Maldives that these bilateral security measures were adopted. It is also a manifestation of India’s ‘neighbourhood first’policy, which seeks to develop capability and capacity of smaller maritime neighbours to bridge their capability gaps and address their security concerns.

The Maldivian Coast Guard has learnt the ropes primarily from the Indian Navy. Till the time India gifted them a patrol craft, they operated only small inter-island speedboats that had very little capability to detect or intervene in an EEZ violation. Even with the availability of a patrol craft, violations further out to sea went undetected, resulting in blatant violation of the EEZ by poachers and trawlers of extra-regional countries. With joint patrols by the Maldivian Coast Guard and the Indian Navy, such violations started getting detected.

India also helped the Maldives to set up a coastal radar chain. Obviously, entities indulging in illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing did not like to be called out. It is my guess that these entities may have had a role to play in influencing Muizzu and his ilk.

It is no secret that China is deeply entrenched in the Maldives in various ways. The Chinese strategy of assisting small countries with mega projects and extracting long-term leverages is known as much to the Maldives as it is to other recipient nations. If such a system is acceptable to the recipient nations, India should have no problem, in principle.

To give the devil its due, China is known to deliver efficiently on promises and negotiate effectively with political dispensations on mega projects. Maybe India could take a page from the Chinese book as a lesson in efficiency. Trust-building is quite another thing, on which India places a premium. As an independent nation, the Maldives must make its choices; and these choices need not result in a zero-sum game between India and China.

There are three things that the Maldives government, whatever the political dispensation, would do well to recognise. First, the India of today is a different country. It is already the fifth largest economy in the world and on its way to becoming the third largest by the middle of the next decade. Its political, technological and economic heft will increase and create opportunities, not just for itself but also for its neighbours and partners. India’s rich and famous could easily be one of the largest sections of tourists visiting the Maldives and the number of American and European tourists could reduce over time.

Second, India is the most capable country in the region with every kind of facility that is lacking in our smaller neighbouring countries. Nationals from neighbouring countries flock to India for tourism, education, employment, medical care and pilgrimage. India has always been welcoming and open to such foreign nationals, but this open-heartedness must not be seen as a weakness. It takes just a piece of paper to create barriers to availing facilities in India. As mentioned earlier, this new India is quite a changed nation-state. The Maldives must weigh its options carefully.

Third, India is the closest maritime neighbour to the Maldives to its west. Male is an hour and a half away by air from Kochi. The distance by sea is less than 400 nautical miles, which is less than a day’s steaming distance by ships of the Indian Navy. In the case of a natural calamity or any other kind of crisis, India will always be the first responder. Ships, aircraft and people of the Indian armed forces will be the first to come to the aid of Maldivians.

Remember the December 2014 drinking water crisis in Male? It was the Indian Navy that ensured that Male did not run dry, while their distillation plants were being repaired. Should there be an emergency requiring relocation of climate refugees, where will the Maldivians go? And who will accept them?

Much thinking needs to be done before policy decisions are considered in India-Maldives relations. The Maldives has much more to gain by keeping India on its side―and much more to lose by queering the pitch.

The author is a former commander-in-chief of the Eastern Naval Command.

china-is-trying-aggressively-to-influence-the-outcome-of-the-january-13-elections-in-taiwan

Sat Jan 06 13:46:58 IST 2024

Vincent Chiang, 58, a marine officer-turned tour guide, has not explored the unique abundance of mighty mountains and pristine beaches dotting Taiwan’s coastline. Instead, he puts his visitors on a musical bus that plays Enigma’s ‘Return to Innocence’ (based on a native Taiwanese chant), taking them to ultra urban destinations like Taipei 101 that light up the island’s skyline and produce as many microchips that can power every iPad, iPhone and MacBook in the world.

The joyride is broken intermittently with Vincent pointing towards a big map inside the bus. “Even though Taiwan is full of mountains and beaches, those were out of bounds for a long, long time under martial law,” he said. “A lot of people of my generation can neither swim nor go hiking even today. Isn’t it ridiculous?”

As a boy growing up in Tainan, the oldest city on the island, Vincent promised family elders that he would neither swim nor hike lest he is mistaken for a dissident trying to flee. He kept his promise, but some others did not. In 1979, Justin Yifu Lin, who was doing his mandatory military service on Kinmen island, just off the mainland, dived into the sea and dramatically swam 2,000 metres to reach China. He wanted to escape the oppressive Kuomintang (KMT) regime founded by Chiang Kai-shek who retreated to Taiwan after his army’s defeat in the Chinese civil war in 1949. Building a new life in Beijing, Lin grew to become a chief economist at the World Bank. His story of defection continues to be a living example of the deep cross-strait divide and the claim of the islanders that China and Taiwan don’t belong to each other.

Lin can never return to Taiwan after he openly defected to the “enemy”. The Taiwanese defence ministry opts for a court martial and even death penalty for such acts. Taiwan remained under martial law for over three decades, the longest in the world (after Syria) under the KMT regime, till 1986. The period is known as the ‘White Terror’ with mass arrests, human rights violations and tales of suppression. Freedom came only in 1996 when Taiwan had its first democratic elections to make Lee Teng-hui, the first president to be born in Taiwan and the first to be directly elected. The people of Taiwan called him Mr Democracy. Since then, political choices of the islanders oscillate between two distinct identities―mainlanders and native Taiwanese.

On January 13, when Taiwan elects its new president and parliament amid rising threats about unification, the choice of the people will once again determine whether Taiwan can remain independent of Xi Jinping’s China. Identity remains an important issue in these elections, a three-cornered contest between the two established political parties―the Democratic Progressive Party and the KMT―and a new entrant, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).

“Dissimilar degrees of attachment to the island exists even today,” said Mumin Chen, a professor at the National Chung Hsing University in Taiwan, who now works at the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre in New Delhi. “Earlier China wanted to earn the goodwill of the people of Taiwan. That is why it had a policy of appeasement when the KMT was in power between 2008 and 2016. But things have changed as the Chinese government under Xi feels that unification is a goal to achieve as soon as possible. China is losing patience and this has changed the nature of the relationship.”

Since a majority of Taiwan’s residents now consider themselves Taiwanese instead of Chinese, it becomes critical for the island to find a better way to coexist peacefully with China. “The DPP does not want a war with China, but it is keen to prepare itself to defend against any aggression. It feels that regional security and stability is its responsibility,” said Chen. “The party wants the global community to recognise Taiwan as an independent and a sovereign country.’’

The election campaign reflects the mood of the people. The islanders want to build their own submarines to defend against any military action that can take them back to Gestapo-style rule. Placards and billboards showing young Taiwanese on submarines have flooded the DPP campaign, creating a buzz in physical and online space.

“With Xi stating that resolving the Taiwan issue is an important goal, no matter which party is elected, it must face China’s powerful combination of military and political oppression,” said Shen Ming-sheh, acting deputy CEO of Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research. “There must be sufficient high tech weapons and joint combat capabilities. If the number of submarines can be increased, it will be of great help in countering the blockade [of the Taiwan Strait].’’ Currently, Taiwan has a fleet of four submarines―two of them built in the 1980s by the Netherlands and two World War II vintage ones from the US. It is now building a series of indigenous submarines.

The DPP’s presidential candidate Lai Ching-te (also known as William Lai) has put defence preparedness on top of his list of priorities. The party is banking on the United States to augment Taiwan’s military prowess. The US has supplied at least 66 F-16Vs and is expected to send more advanced training fighter jets and 108 M1A2 tanks as part of an extensive military modernisation drive against the backdrop of the looming Chinese invasion.

There is a growing realisation that Taiwan’s own forces need to be combat ready, not just in sheer skill, but also in size. “If China invades on a large scale, it may mobilise three lakh to four lakh soldiers. Taiwan’s current military strength is insufficient, so the number of standing and reserve troops must be increased,” said Shen.

Military conscription is the key to Taiwan’s security and survival and it has become an important electoral issue. Lai wants to increase the mandatory military service from four months to a year. But the KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, a burly ex-police officer who serves as mayor of New Taipei City, has opposed the idea, saying war mongering can be dangerous. “We speak the same language and share the same history. Most of the people in Taiwan came directly from China in 1949. So, the relationship has never been cut off,” said Huang Yi-teng, director general of the KMT’s Evaluation and Discipline Committee. “The two areas are one cultural region in many ways.”

If the KMT takes pride in its leaders having “good neighbourly ties’’ with China that can benefit the people of Taiwan, the DPP boasts a winning combination of Lai for president and former de facto ambassador to the US, Hsiao Bi-khim, as his second-in-command. Hsiao is popularly known as the “cat warrior’’ who can counter China’s “wolf-warrior’’ diplomacy, with her delicate balancing act. “William is a heavyweight in Taiwan politics who rose from the ranks, while Hsiao was a diplomat in the US with a rooftop view. After her US posting, she returned to work at the grassroots level to build herself up in Taiwan politics,” said Andrea Yang, deputy secretary general of the DPP. Hsiao, who is a cat lover, is said to have mastered her political strategy by watching her four favourite feline pets. “They tread softly, but they are able to find the right positions of defence,’’ she was quoted as saying.

Huang said Taiwan’s historic relationship with the US had been beneficial, but also pointed towards the shift of power from the US to China. “The Americans are getting weaker and China has become more powerful. It is not a threat, but an opportunity for Taiwan,” he said. “We are neighbours, we ought to talk.” But Yang said China’s rise, which was not peaceful, was a threat not only to Taiwan, but to the entire Indo-Pacific region. “We need to continue to deter it,” she said.

The need for stability is driving the polls, and the next president’s primary task would be to maintain Taiwan’s tenuous “status quo’’ as much as possible. The islanders are in no mood to cut themselves off from the rest of the world by incurring China’s wrath. The memory of former US speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit in August 2022, which provoked China to send its warships and fighter jets across the strait, is still fresh. Though Lai and Hsiao are pragmatic leaders, they are seen as more pro-independence than incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen. This can be a trump card for China as it may find an excuse to ratchet up tensions if the DPP wins again. The worry within the DPP camp is that even if it wins the presidential elections, the KMT may get a majority in parliament, making it difficult to execute its flagship defence projects. The psychological warfare by China has impacted DPP’s political fortunes. While the party won a thumping majority in 2020, the KMT is giving it a tight fight this time. Both parties are wooing the diaspora voters as well, sending delegations to foreign countries with significant Taiwanese population.

Taiwan’s elections can be a case study of how campaigns in technologically advanced countries have moved to online spaces where mass propaganda of warring political parties can shape voters’ choices. “China is using TikTok to spread fake news and influence voters. We believe there is a cyber army behind it,” said Yang. But the KMT has a counter. “We see false information coming from many places all the time. It could come from mainland Chinese sources or our own citizens here in Taiwan,” said Chen-Dong Tso, foreign affairs adviser to the KMT presidential candidate.

But there is more to this than meets the eye. Lieutenant General Rajesh Pant (retd), former national cyber security coordinator to the Indian government who recently joined experts from the US and Taiwan in a trilateral initiative to deal with cyberattacks on democratic systems, said democracies in the Indo-Pacific region needed to effectively counter Chinese propaganda, manipulation of public opinion and disinformation, besides dealing with threats to critical infrastructure from cyber armies. This becomes particularly important in the run-up to the general elections in India and the US this year, he said.

What is novel about Taiwan’s polls this time is the presence of the new party, the TPP, launched four years ago by Ko Wen-je, a doctor who served as mayor of Taipei from 2014 to 2022. The fatigue with the two-party system is quite evident, and Ko is seen as a dark horse who is ambitious and opportunistic. “The TPP has beaten even the KMT in online campaign. Ko is trying to offer the best of both worlds and young voters are watching his online campaign without blinking,” said Rohan, who works at an Indian restaurant in Taipei.

Tien-sze Fang, deputy director of the Centre for India studies at the National Tsing Hua University in Taiwan, however, said that the position of Ko’s party was highly uncertain. “While advocating closer ties across the strait, he also mentions about adhering to the DPP’s policies, making his stand hard to predict,” said Fang. The KMT and the TPP might join forces to defeat the DPP, but both have refrained from revealing their cards.

“Transparency and fight against corruption are the key issues this time. The ruling party is [swamped by] corruption scandals and fake news. I am not saying that the TPP can wipe out corruption, but it will bring checks and balances. Ko is stressing on integrity to save democracy,” said Rong-I Arthur Hong, Ko’s adviser on security and defence issues.

China’s influence on Taiwan’s polls can be gauged from the fact that Terry Gou, the billionaire founder of the tech giant Foxconn, withdrew from the presidential race after initially opting to run. With entrenched business interests in China, Gou developed cold feet at the last moment. Beijing also sent tax authorities after him when he talked about his independent business policy. Others say he withdrew after failing to bring the KMT and the TPP together. Meanwhile, the KMT and the TPP have not ruled out a post-poll alliance to form the first coalition government in Taiwan’s history in case they can defeat the DPP.

China, meanwhile, seems to be going ahead with its plan to ratchet up tensions in the Indo-Pacific. After breaching the median line in the Taiwan Strait a hundredth time, it is picking up fights in the Philippine Sea as well. Recently, Chinese soldiers used water cannons on Philippine boats, prompting Manila to ask for F-16 fighter jets from the US.

Raoul Manuel, a young parliamentarian from the Philippines, said the Chinese presence had strengthened in the South China sea and its ships were blocking the movement of his country’s ships. “It has been established that the West Philippine Sea belongs to the Philippines and we have the right to sail our ships in our area,” he said. “China is even calling the Philippines an aggressor, when it is the other way around. The strategy of the Philippines is to address these concerns by implementing the Hague tribunal’s South China Sea ruling (which found that Chinese claims in the region lacked legal foundation) and the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).”

Seventy per cent of the world’s commercial shipping passes through the waterways around Taiwan. India, which has a border dispute with China, has military and geostrategic interests in deterring the dragon, making Taiwan its natural ally. “A threat to Taiwan means a threat to the entire Indo-Pacific, because it will have a ripple effect,” said Namrata Hasija, research fellow at the Centre for China Analysis and Strategy, New Delhi. “If China invades Taiwan, two things will happen. First, it will be able to break this first island chain, and it is not going to stop there. If the US supremacy no longer exists, it will give China direct access to all its Pacific bases. It can aim for the East China Sea, then India, and then the whole region is Beijing’s.’’

It sounds a far-fetched proposition, but it remains a looming danger, nonetheless. Fang said upholding democracy in Taiwan would contribute to the formation of an ideal alliance between like-minded democracies such as Japan, India and Taiwan against any potential regional dominance from authoritarian regimes. “Economically, the partnership can help build a more resilient supply chain,” he said.

The democratisation story of any country is an example for the global community. More so, when it is the only Chinese-speaking democracy in the world bold enough to reject communist dictatorship.

taiwan-has-continued-to-uphold-democratic-principles

Sat Jan 06 13:03:27 IST 2024

Taiwan’s presidential elections have garnered international attention, not only because of their potential implications on the future of the country itself and the region, but also because of the inspiration they provide to the world. The democratic consolidation in Taiwan serves as a beacon of hope, showcasing the resilience of democracy in the face of geopolitical challenges and in the pursuit of a progressive and inclusive society.

Some 19.5 million Taiwanese voters will head to the polls on January 13 to elect their next president and 113 members of the Legislative Yuan, the highest lawmaking body in Taiwan. In the past 30 years, having held seven free and fair direct presidential elections, Taiwan has matured into a fully democratic country well recognised around the world.

Taiwan’s resilience in the face of external pressures also serves as an inspiration. Standing on the frontline against expanding authoritarianism, Taiwan has continued to uphold democratic principles and has resisted attempts to compromise its sovereignty in spite of longstanding diplomatic isolation and constant threats from an assertive neighbour. In the meantime, Taiwan has strived to strengthen its defence capabilities and democratic resilience while confronted by increasing threats like grey-zone campaigns, military intimidation, cyberattacks and information manipulation. As a consequence, the international community has come to appreciate how Taiwan’s citizens remain steadfast in their commitment to democratic values.

It is important to note that China’s ambitions, by no means limited to Taiwan, have expanded on the India-China border, in the Indian Ocean, South China Sea, East China Sea and the Pacific Ocean.

Taiwan is renowned both as a crucial hub for international transport and for the pivotal position it occupies in the global semiconductor supply chains. More than 50 per cent of the world’s freight passes through the Taiwan Strait and Taiwan produces 90 per cent of the advanced semiconductor chips used around the world. If Taiwan comes under attack, the global economy and security will likely suffer.

In recent years, China has used several pretexts to militarily intimidate Taiwan, posing a serious challenge to cross-strait and regional security and putting the international community on high alert. This year, a series of joint communiqués issued at bilateral or multilateral meetings such as the G7 summit, the US-Japan summit and the US-Japan-ROK (South Korea) summit at Camp David have all underscored the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

As such, we remain deeply appreciative of President Joe Biden’s reiteration that the US opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait during his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in California on November 15. President Biden emphasised that differences should be resolved peacefully as it is in the international community’s best interest to keep the region peaceful and stable.

As a responsible stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan will continue to work with all like-minded countries to defend the rules-based international order and ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific. I can therefore guarantee that the new administration after the January election in Taiwan will not deviate from the fundamental policy of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Over the years, Taiwan and India have nurtured a natural and reliable partnership. Ever since both countries established representation in each other’s capitals in 1995, bilateral relations have undergone massive transformation. Bilateral trade has grown more than nine-fold from $0.93 billion in 1995 to $8.4 billion in 2022. A total of 220 Taiwanese enterprises have set up business operations in India with an accumulated investment value of $4.2 billion. In the area of educational cooperation, 31 Taiwan Education Centres have been launched across Indian university campuses, attracting over 8,000 Indian students to take up Mandarin courses and to pursue further studies in Taiwan. In addition, Taiwan and India have made great strides in the field of science and technology, with 136 joint research projects successfully implemented since 2007.

I am also glad to note the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office (TECO) in Mumbai is scheduled to open as part of our ongoing efforts to facilitate bilateral exchanges with west India. Moreover, three retired Indian service chiefs visited Taiwan in August to take part in the Ketagalan Forum to discuss defence and security issues in the Indo-Pacific.

I am pleased to highlight External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s remarks in November recognising Taiwan’s achievement in electronics and semiconductors as well as India’s substantial technology, economic and commercial relations with Taiwan. It is clear that our two countries can jointly make greater contributions to a free, open and resilient Indo-Pacific region.

Taiwan’s elections are not only a critical watershed choice of resilience of democracy versus autocracy, but are also likely to have a significant impact on the future dynamics of Taiwan-India relations. The shared commitment to democratic values, economic collaboration and strategic cooperation make our two nations natural partners in the evolving global landscape.

―The author is Taiwan’s representative to India.

andrea-yi-shan-yang-taiwan-democratic-progressive-party-interview

Wed Jan 10 12:53:43 IST 2024

As the world faces two major conflicts―the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war―Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is worried about the possibility of a third one, with China's constant threats against the island. Speaking exclusively with THE WEEK, the DPP's deputy secretary-general Andrea Yang said it was time Taiwan built its own weapons and military equipment to defend itself. Excerpts from the interview:

Q Are this year’s elections a choice between war and peace in Taiwan?

A Taiwan never really supports any military action with China. It is always China that is using military reasons to jeopardise bilateral relations. The Kuomintang (KMT) is a traditionally pro-China political party, so it says that voting for the DPP is equivalent to going to war. But we continue to emphasise the importance of open dialogue and communication. China, however, wants to implement the so called “one country, two systems’’ model in Taiwan, just like it did in Hong Kong. But we are a sovereign country and we try to uphold our democracy. The Taiwanese people demonstrated this in the 2020 presidential elections when they voted to protect our sovereignty and democracy. Once again there is the need to tell China and the rest of the world that upholding democracy in Taiwan is important.

Q Have election campaigns have moved more into the online space rather than physical?

A It is definitely a trend and we believe that more and more people would not rely on information from traditional mass media. So, the modern politicians really need to learn how to communicate effectively with the users, the voters and their supporters online. And this is something that we all sort of knew can happen (with advancement of technology) but we didn't know how quickly it will change. We could not really predict how fast it's moved around.

Q There are concerns about Chinese interference in the elections.

A China has tried to intervene in Taiwan's elections ever since our first presidential elections in 1996. But their strategy is changing. They are trying to use disinformation and misinformation to influence people's understanding towards China and cross-strait relations. Taiwan is a free country and we cannot ban apps like TikTok. Our younger generation relies on the Chinese app for entertainment. Political messages are being inserted on such platforms and those are also being spread through different chat groups. If you are not careful, you would be easily manipulated by sensational messages, such as the DPP is encouraging people to arm themselves and prepare for war.

Q Is the DPP open to having a dialogue with China and will be it based on the 1992 Consensus?

A Of course, we are open for a dialogue with China but there shouldn't be any preconditions set. The 1992 Consensus is actually a “created” consensus made up by the KMT, and both the KMT and China have different versions of it. This is very confusing. If there is a consensus, there shouldn't be multiple versions, not to mention there is no written document in this case. So, it's almost like a phantom above Taiwan's politics when it comes to cross-Strait issues. The KMT has been using the 1992 Consensus as a convenient excuse and in our belief the original version of 1992 Consensus is that Taiwan and China, or Republic of China and People's Republic of China - doesn’t matter what term we use - both have an understanding of what one China should be. There is a room for discussion. But China's version of 1992 Consensus is that there is only one China and no room for Republic of China.

Q The world is worried about a third war breaking out in the Taiwan Strait after the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war.

A The two wars have shocked people who were optimistic about world peace. Yes, there is worry about whether the Taiwan Strait would be a third place for war. And that is why we are attracting so much attention from different countries. But the big question is, is it good for China to initiate military action against Taiwan? I think the consequences will be huge for China because the free democratic world will go against it. So if Xi Jinping wants to be the enemy of the entire world, then he would do that. But it is unlikely that he would choose to initiate irrational action at this point, given the economic downturn in China. When Xi met Joe Biden in San Francisco in November, he denied having any knowledge about the timeline of an invasion or war in 2027 or 2049. Some reports even suggested that Xi got emotional, claiming that he never heard of such a thing. It seems Xi is trying to be a great leader for China, but his ambitions have slowed down. Neighbouring countries like Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia and Australia are not happy with China as they are worried about its potential irrational actions. At this point, we feel Xi will really need to evaluate the consequences of initiating a war that he will not be able to end.

Q What kind of defence strategy does Taiwan need to prepare itself against possible Chinese invasion?

A In terms of external relations, incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen outlined four commitments - that the Republic of China and People’s Republic of China are not subordinate to each other; upholding free and democratic constitutional system; resisting annexation or encroachment upon sovereignty and the future of Taiwan being determined by Taiwanese themselves. She has tried to maximise the interest of Republic of China and also Taiwan.

The presidential candidate of DPP, Lai Ching-te (William), has brought out four pillars for Taiwan’s security. He has said that firstly we need to strengthen our defence capabilities; strengthen our democracy and improve our economic security. We are also open to dialogue with China. So, we are emphasising the importance of keeping ourselves secure by increasing our defence budgets, making our own weapons and military equipment, including submarines.

While we purchase weapons from countries like United States, there is a need for self preparation to show the world that we are willing to protect ourselves. Of course, we cannot survive without other countries' help and need to have close relations with like-minded countries. In recent years, both US and Japan are emphasising on stronger ties with Indo-Pacific countries. The Biden administration invited South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines to Washington D.C this year. President Biden also visited Vietnam. So, if we see the efforts made by these countries and the historic rise in their defence budgets, it shows the worry of China’s unpeaceful rise and ambitions and we need to continue to deter it.

We are also telling people about Taiwan’s important strategic and geopolitical position and that no one in the world can afford to lose Taiwan to China. More than 50 per cent of the commercial ships go through Taiwan Strait and this place is full of economic interest to the world. So, if China attacks Taiwan, the entire world will suffer.

communist-system-should-not-be-applied-to-taiwan

Wed Jan 10 12:37:46 IST 2024

There is excitement in the Kuomintang party (KMT) about resuming dialogue with China and improving the situation in the Taiwan Strait. Chen-Dong Tso, foreign affairs adviser to KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, told THE WEEK that the party had prepared a blueprint for resuming the peace process. He said the KMT was committed to protecting Taiwan's sovereignty and its democratic system. Excerpts from the interview:

Q What are the KMT's plans to manage tensions with China?

A During the DPP rule under President Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan has been on the brink of war and we have seen a constant increase in Chinese military provocation. Chinese fighter jets and warships crossed the median line and also entered Taiwan's air defence identification zone. Chinese military exercises and provocations have raised eyebrows around the world as they indicate that a war is becoming imminent. Of course, the KMT politicians understand that the tensions are caused by Chinese provocation, but at the same time, there can be certain factors that aggravate the problem, especially as both sides do not have an open line of communication under the DPP rule.

On the other hand, KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih has a plan to restart the cross-strait dialogue on a model of “mutual non-recognition of sovereignty and mutual non-denial of authority to govern”. We are hopeful that tensions across the Taiwan Strait can be lowered and both sides can find ways to avoid accidents and any conflict in the future.

Q What will be the basis of the cross-strait dialogue?

A In November 1992, the Taiwan government and China government came to the final stage of negotiation on how to express the concept of “one China’’. There are written documents of the 1992 Consensus in the form of exchanged letters. The ROC government then proposed to verbally express the concept of “one China’’, saying that both sides adhere to one China but have a different understanding of what it means. So, the 1992 Consensus definitely has a role to play when both sides decide to restart dialogue. It worked during the previous administrations when both sides continued dialogue for 16 years. So, I think it can still work. The KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih has said that he supports the 1992 Consensus consistent with the ROC constitution. This is very important as I feel the ROC constitution can function as the basis for both sides to shelve differences and seek common ground.

Q How do you see the future of Taiwan under the KMT? There is speculation about a soft merger with China.

A The approach that our candidate Hou takes is to lower the temperature across the Taiwan Strait step by step. He hopes that the official dialogue can be resumed, but he also understands that it is not possible to immediately return to the era of former president Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT. The goal can be to enhance people-to-people exchange and cultural, religious as well as academic ties so that both sides understand each other better. The third step would then be to restart functional cooperation by expressing goodwill for each other and building confidence in each other. This is what the candidate calls the de-escalation stage. Hou cherishes the common culture, language and shared history with China and it is our hope that both sides can find ways to solve the differences.

Q You talked about similarities. But how is Taiwan different from the Chinese system?

A Taiwan has a political system which is democratic and protects personal freedom. I think there is a high degree of consensus among Taiwanese people that the communist political system of mainland China should not be applied to Taiwan. Candidate Hou stays committed to protecting the sovereignty of Taiwan and its free and democratic system. He opposes China’s attempt to absorb Taiwan under the formula of “one country, two systems” and upholds the view that Taiwan’s future will be determined only by its people.

Q What is the KMT’s approach towards the security of the Indo-Pacific region in the face of growing threats from the Chinese expansionist policy?

A Candidate Hou is looking at the possibility of including the Indo-Pacific as a pillar of foreign policy to build a common vision and a good neighbourly policy with countries like Japan, South Korea and India. Ma Ying-Jeou was the last Taiwanese president to visit India. I hope that KMT leaders can pay a visit to India in the near future after the elections.

Q The KMT has been sending delegations to China, and even as we speak, KMT leaders are in China. What is the agenda?

A All parties, including DPP, have sent delegations all over the world calling overseas voters to come back to Taiwan to vote. In the 2020 presidential election, the administration even provided some incentives for the overseas Taiwanese to return home to vote. So, you can see how every vote counts. This is the reason why KMT also sent delegations all over the world, including mainland China. For Taiwanese people residing in mainland China, it takes just two hours or even less to travel back home. So, if they can come back, you can imagine the number of voters could be higher than those from US and Europe.

Q Do you agree a misinformation campaign is being run by China to influence the polls in Taiwan?

A We see false information coming from many places all the time; it could come from Mainland Chinese sources or our own citizens here in Taiwan. What worries me is that our government sometimes uses Mainland Chinese fake news as an excuse for their shoddy handling of issues of public concern. So, we all have to be careful not to allow any actions that can destroy the public's trust in the government. We need to be careful before we label any fake news as Mainland Chinese propaganda. As far as the US is concerned, it is their stated position that it will not interfere in Taiwan's election and it has also said it wants all stakeholders not to interfere in the elections.

taiwan-network-information-centre-ceo-kenny-huang-interview

Wed Jan 10 13:47:24 IST 2024

On December 12, representatives of India, the United States and Taiwan met in New Delhi, for closed-door discussions on the challenge of cyberattacks on democratic systems, as the three countries are holding general elections in 2024. Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, said technical collaboration was essential to safeguard cyberspace in all three countries. Kenny Huang, CEO of the Taiwan Network Information Centre under the ministry of digital affairs in Taipei, has been on the job ever since. Huang is trying to cement the collaboration between the three countries to defend against a common threat factor―China’s covert cyber warriors.

Being cross-strait neighbours, Taiwan holds the key to some secrets of China, not so well known to militaries in other countries. One such secret is the swift advancement of the People’s Liberation Army in developing advanced cyber weapons that can ‘seize control’ of enemy satellites and threaten to disrupt global communication, navigation and surveillance systems. “The consequences may extend to the manipulation or disabling of crucial infrastructure, including GPS navigation, weather monitoring, communication networks and compromising military surveillance,” said Huang in an exclusive interview. Excerpts:

Q What kind of cyber threat is Taiwan facing from China?

A China poses a significant cyber threat to Taiwan across its military branches. China has developed advanced cyber capabilities in the air force, navy, ground force and rocket force. These capabilities target communication systems, intelligence networks and command structures, potentially disrupting air, naval and ground operations. In the rocket force, cyber tools may aim to secure and disrupt missile defence systems. China integrates cyber capabilities into its broader military strategy, emphasising information warfare. This comprehensive approach includes both offensive cyber operations and defence against potential cyber threats. Taiwan must prioritise cyber security measures to protect against these persistent and sophisticated cyber threats from China. Enhancing defences across air, naval, ground and rocket forces is crucial for safeguarding Taiwan’s military capabilities in the face of evolving cyber challenges posed by China.

Q What do you know about Unit 61398 of the PLA?

A Unit 61398 is a covert cyber unit within the PLA, suspected of participating in cyber espionage and attacks. It is situated in Shanghai’s Pudong district. Specifics about the unit’s strength are undisclosed because of the secretive nature of its operations. However, it reportedly consists of experts involved in hacking and technical operations.

The unit is implicated in stealing sensitive information, conducting economic espionage and launching cyberattacks with potential geopolitical consequences. One extensively reported case involves its alleged participation in cyber intrusions, notably against entities in the United States. These operations are aimed at extracting intellectual property, sensitive data and proprietary information, linking the unit to attacks on sectors like technology, defence and health care.

Q When did China setup the covert cyber unit and what kind of operations has it conducted worldwide till now?

A Established in the early 2000s, Unit 61398 has been connected to various global cyber operations. Noteworthy instances include cyber-espionage campaigns targeting governments, corporations, and critical infrastructure. The unit is implicated in stealing sensitive information, conducting economic espionage, and launching cyber-attacks with potential geopolitical consequences. One extensively reported case involves the alleged participation of Unit 61398 in cyber intrusions, notably against entities in the United States. These operations aimed to extract intellectual property, sensitive data, and proprietary information, linking the unit to attacks on sectors like technology, defence, and healthcare. Unit 61398's operations highlight the changing landscape of state-sponsored cyber threats and emphasise the strategic importance of cyber capabilities in geopolitical affairs.

Q There is worry that China has the capability to jam communications and intelligence satellites.

A In case of military strikes on Taiwan, reports suggest that China might employ tactics to disrupt communication and intelligence satellites. This could involve jamming signals, rendering communication systems ineffective, and impairing intelligence-gathering capabilities. Additionally, there are concerns that China might target ballistic missile early warning satellites, which play a crucial role in detecting and tracking missile launches. These actions align with a broader strategy to disrupt the communication and surveillance infrastructure that is vital for military operations. Disabling satellites could hinder Taiwan’s ability to coordinate defences, share critical information and monitor potential missile threats. As such, safeguarding satellite capabilities and developing countermeasures against potential interference would be crucial elements of Taiwan’s defence strategy in the event of heightened tensions or military actions in the region.

Q What kind of chaos can be expected if China ‘seizes control’ of enemy satellites?

A If successful, this could disrupt global communication, navigation and surveillance systems, impacting both military and civilian operations. The consequences may extend to the manipulation or disabling of crucial infrastructure, including GPS navigation, weather monitoring and communication networks. In a worst-case scenario, these cyber capabilities could be exploited to interfere with essential services like financial transactions, air traffic control and emergency response systems. Such control over satellites could also jeopardise national security by compromising military surveillance and intelligence-gathering capabilities. This highlights the urgent need for international collaboration and robust cyber security measures to safeguard satellite infrastructure, ensuring the continued functioning of critical systems on a global scale.

Q Taiwan has accused China of information warfare ahead of presidential elections. What kind of threats have you faced?

A Taiwan faces a range of cyber threats, primarily emanating from China, ahead of elections. These threats include phishing attacks, distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks, and advanced persistent threats (APTs). Phishing attempts often target political figures, government officials, and organisations, seeking unauthorised access to sensitive information. DDoS attacks aim to disrupt critical online infrastructure, while APTs involve sophisticated, long-term infiltration for intelligence gathering or influence campaigns. The frequency of cyber attacks varies, and tracking an exact daily or monthly count can be challenging due to the evolving nature of cyber threats. Monitoring and incident response teams are actively engaged in identifying, mitigating, and analysing these attacks. Continuous vigilance is essential, and collaboration with international cybersecurity entities is crucial.

Q What lessons can be drawn from the Russia-Ukraine war, the first hybrid war the world has seen?

A It teaches us valuable lessons about the effectiveness of hybrid warfare, combining traditional military actions with cyber operations and information warfare. It underscores the need to address both conventional and non-traditional threats in modern conflicts. The war showed that countries should be ready to handle a mix of military, cyber and information threats. The lessons emphasise the importance of being resilient against different kinds of challenges, such as cyberattacks and misinformation. It also highlights the need for nations to update their military strategies to adapt to the changing nature of conflicts in today’s world. The Russia-Ukraine war serves as a contemporary example that prompts countries to take a more comprehensive and flexible approach to national security.

Q In what way can China discredit the democratic process?

A There is a real worry about China trying to influence Taiwan’s elections either by favouring a specific party or spreading misinformation to discredit the democratic process. China’s motives seem quite complex. One possibility is that China wants a party in Taiwan that aligns with its goals, like supporting reunification. By influencing the election in favour of such a party, China could advance its own interests. Another concern is that China might aim to undermine trust in the democratic process itself. This could involve spreading false information, casting doubt on the fairness of the elections, or questioning the legitimacy of candidates. The goal here is to create instability and shake people’s confidence in Taiwanese politicians and the democratic system.

why-ukrainians-must-win-the-war-before-holding-elections

Mon Jan 08 14:00:22 IST 2024

ZOYA PAVLIVNA SOKOLENKO, a 61-year-old mathematics teacher and director of a secondary school in Kharkiv, Ukraine, exclaims: “Elections? Are you serious?” I had just asked her what she thinks of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement in August that Ukraine could hold elections in 2024, provided that the money for it does not come from the war budget.

Zelensky wanted to not just dispel the assumption of his opponents that he would hold on to power using the war as a reason, but also prove his determination to win the war. Presidential elections are due in March, and parliamentary polls in autumn 2024. But martial law, which is now in effect in Ukraine, does not allow elections to be held. Article 83 of the Ukrainian constitution prohibits the dissolution of parliament when martial law is in effect, and Article 64 restricts certain rights and freedoms.

“There is a full-scale war going on,” Zoya Pavlivna tells me. “More than eight million Ukrainians have fled their homes. Tens and thousands have been killed in 600-plus days of war. Missiles and drones can strike any corner of Ukraine any moment. Almost 20 per cent of the territory is occupied by Russia. Organising elections demands, first and foremost, peace.”

And this is the time of war, not peace. “Oh! Hear the siren? Let’s go to the shelter,” says Zoya Pavlivna. “Will Ukraine be the first country to hold elections in bunkers?”

According to a recent poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 80 per cent of Ukrainians are against holding elections when the war is still on. So why the fuss at the top level? Because, during his visit to Kyiv last August, American senator Lindsay Graham said Ukraine needed to show that it was different by holding wartime elections. Interestingly, the Republican senator, accompanied by his Democrat colleagues Elizabeth Warren and Richard Blumenthal, made the statement during a briefing from a bunker in Kyiv.

In response, Zelensky said he agreed with Graham, but he would not take the money for “weapons and give it to elections”. Let the US and Europe take full financial responsibility, he said. Observers, he added, should be sent to the trenches to ensure that soldiers fighting to protect Ukraine’s democracy could exercise their fundamental right to vote. A candid and befitting response, certainly.

Zoya Pavlivna’s life has been in tandem with elections since she started working at the Kharkiv school in 1999. In Ukraine, elections are usually held on school premises and halls on Sundays. After she became the school’s director, she took on greater responsibilities―tidying up the rooms, arranging furniture, setting up polling booths, organising people, coordinating with the territorial representative of Ukraine’s Central Election Commission and ensuring secrecy of ballot.

Zoya Pavlivna says she was proud of working to “honour the choice of the people”. Today, Russian missile attacks have left her school in ruins. She was evacuated to Romania, where she worked as a babysitter, but returned to Ukraine. Today, she teaches mathematics in a school in Chernivtsi.

“We Ukrainians have changed presidents five times since 1991, while Belarus has had the same president for the past 30 years, and [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin has been holding office since 2000, except for a short gap from 2008 to 2012. People like to have their say in Ukraine,” she says.

As a UN observer, I have seen many elections, including special polling stations, such as prisons, hospitals and military barracks since the late 1990s. Indeed, Ukrainian elections are epoch-making, bringing serious changes, catapulting new faces into politics, although imperfections in party formation, functioning, equal access to media and electoral funding remain.

The rebirth of Ukraine as a sovereign state started with a referendum on December 1, 1991, in which 92.3 per cent of Ukrainians voted for independence and elected Leonid Kravchuk as president. In the 1994 presidential polls, Leonid Kuchma beat Kravchuk. The 1998 parliamentary polls saw the emergence of a multi-party, but oligarchic, system that was consolidated by Kuchma, who was reelected in 1999 amid concerns of rigging. The president’s need for a loyal parliament led to the managing of parties through oligarchs. The degree of presidential control, however, had been decreasing over the past decades gradually.

Russia never missed any opportunity to have a candidate loyal to the Kremlin in Ukraine. “The poisoning of presidential candidate Victor Yushchenko in 2004, and the subsequent massive rigging of elections, were covert operations of the Kremlin,” says Zoya Pavlivna. “Putin congratulated his favourite, Victor Yanukovych, even before the results were announced. People rose in protests and forced the authorities to ensure a fair election.”

Since then, brazen rigging is not usual in Ukrainian elections. In 2010, Ukrainians voted Yanukovych to power. Though seen as a pro-Russian, he pledged to sign an association agreement with the European Union. But he backed out under duress from Putin, and faced another uprising―the Revolution of Dignity. He abandoned office and fled to Russia in 2014. For Russia, the stakes became so high that it occupied Crimea and started covert warfare in Donbas.

The presidential and parliamentary elections in both 2014 and 2019 were freer and fairer than previous ones. The crucial point is, Ukraine remains a democracy committed to free speech and choice.

But attempting elections now would be unfair. More than 100 organisations recently signed a petition against holding wartime elections. Said Olha Aivazovska, author of the petition and Ukraine’s top election expert: “Ukrainians are very sensitive to double standards. Polls now will neither be free nor fair, and will destabilise the country and offer ways for Russia to be more aggressive.” Ukrainians are more worried about Russia organising its presidential elections on the occupied territories of Ukraine, intimidating and using people as electoral fodder.

Listening to many others like Zoya Pavlivna, I saw solid unity on this issue. When politicians across the world think of winning elections, politicians in Ukraine are, in unison, thinking of winning not the elections, but the brutal, genocidal war on their country.

Mridula Ghosh, formerly with the UN, is based in Kyiv, and teaches at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy.

nepal-s-first-same-sex-marriage

Fri Dec 15 19:26:11 IST 2023

“We want to invite the rainbow community in Nepal to come out in the open and join our steps to get married as same-sex couples. We also want the global rainbow community to visit Nepal,” said Maya Gurung and Surendra Pandey, the couple that made history on November 27 by registering the first same-sex marriage in Nepal. Taiwan is the only other country in Asia that has legalised same-sex marriage. Returning from their honeymoon, the couple said they were promoting same-sex marriage not only for Nepalis, but for the rainbow community all over the world with the help of an NGO called Mayako Pahichan (identity of love).

Born Ram Bahadur Gurung to Harimaya and Kul Bahadur Gurung in 1985 in the picturesque district of Lamjung in western Nepal, Maya returned 38 years later as a trans woman to register her marriage with 27-year-old Surendra. Several glass ceilings were broken in this marriage, including gender, caste and age and the local community accepted it and celebrated it with a lot of fanfare.

In the Gurung community there is a traditional folk dance called Maruni in which men dress as women. “I always used to be selected as a Maruni dancer and was taken to perform in Kathmandu, and while dancing I felt like I was a woman. But I realised that I was indeed a woman only after I ran away during one of the performances,” said Maya. She now identifies as a trans woman, but has not changed her gender on official documents. Before becoming Maya, she worked in several restaurants in Kathmandu, making tea and washing dishes. Finally, at the age of 13, she started meeting people who had similar feelings as her and this was when she confirmed her identity as a trans woman.

Maya met Surendra, eight years younger, in Kawasoti, Nawalparasi district, in 2015. Surendra was born a male and identifies as gay. After losing his parents at the age of six, he grew up in an orphanage and had to stop his education after grade 10. “I grew up without love and care, and when I met Maya, we shared a lot of difficulties life had thrown our way. I fell for her,” said Surendra, who works as a plumber. He said he had known about the transgender community, watching them perform during the Biswokarma puja, but came to realise about his identity only after meeting Maya. They rented a room in Kawasoti and stayed there for eight months before moving to Kathmandu. As Maya was known for her activism for the sexual minority in Kathmandu, they had support from the community there.

Two years after their meeting, Maya and Surendra got married in a religious function at a temple with the help of friends. The wedding took place on October 13, 2017, which coincided with Maya and Surendra’s birthday. They tried to register their marriage at the district court in Kathmandu, but got rejected despite the Nepal supreme court’s order that directed the government to register such unions. They continued to seek legal sanctity to their marriage and, finally, on November 27, their marriage was legally registered at the Dordi rural municipality office at Lamjung.

“Although marriage is still defined as a union of male and female in the civil court, Article 18 of the constitution of Nepal guarantees equal rights to the sexual minority in the country and Article 18(3) mentions that the state can make special provisions for them based on which the supreme court gave a verdict in 2007 to recognise same sex marriage,” said senior advocate Dinesh Tripathi. He said the registration of the same sex marriage was legally binding and, although laws regarding such marriages were not yet formulated, Article 16 of the constitution guaranteed all citizens a life of dignity. There could be issues related to adoption, divorce and property rights, for which laws have to be amended. Tripathi said right to equality was among the cardinal principles of human rights, and as Nepal was a signatory to several human rights treaties, it was now the government’s responsibility to ensure the rights of same-sex couples who had registered their marriages. The constitution recognises the status of the third gender and allows Nepali citizens to identify themselves as male, female or other. Nepal is one of the few countries to have this option at the airport while filling in visa and immigration forms.

Supreme court lawyer Vishnu Basyal said that while Nepal had made progress towards equality, the country had a long way to go in accepting same-sex unions. “As the same-sex marriage that was registered recently still could not come out of the binary notion and terms, the married couple was represented as bride and groom/husband and wife,” she said. Civil society activism and proactive decisions of the supreme court have played a crucial role in introducing gender sensitive policies in Nepal, said Basyal, who also teaches at the Nepal Law Campus.

Nepal became a secular state in 2008, which was an outcome of the people’s movement and the Maoist uprising. Before that, it was the only Hindu country in the world. Therefore, Hindu culture, tradition and values are deeply embedded in the people’s mindset.

Beena Poudyal, former head of the central department of Nepalese history, culture and archaeology at Tribhuvan University, said that overall, the registration of same-sex marriage in Nepal was positive and should be welcomed, but warned that its acceptance in a society which was predominantly Hindu would be difficult. “Inter-caste marriage is not new in Nepal; however, it is still not done openly and there are many families that hide the caste of their children’s spouses. Therefore, acceptance of same-sex marriage will not happen overnight,” said Poudyal.

For people to come to terms with the fact that same-sex marriage has been legalised will take a long time. “Science has progressed and children can be born through different ways now, but in a society where religious, traditional and cultural values have strong roots, there will be several challenges that need to be addressed for same-sex couples to be accepted.”

Ananta Maharjan, one of the few certified male beauticians in Nepal, was sympathetic towards the rights of all, but said that he was not aware that people from the same sex could actually get married to each other. He said he had many questions regarding the children of such couples as that was the essence of marriage, in his view.

Bishwaraj Adhikary, Nepal’s first ‘Mr Gay Handsome’, who runs a gay restaurant called Inclusion Galaxy in Kathmandu, said that with the registration of the first same-sex marriage, organisations working for the cause of the sexual minorities should come together to make sure that their rights were ensured. He expressed confidence that such couples would be accepted by society, although many gay and lesbian couples were still not comfortable coming out.

“I am positive that our struggle will succeed. The registration of same-sex marriages is our big achievement and we will continue to lobby to get laws formulated to support same-sex marriages like [laws on] adoption, divorce and property rights,” said Sunil Babu Pant, founder of the Blue Diamond Society. Pant, who is also a former MP, said he was confident that the Nepali society would accept same-sex couples, despite its Hindu heritage. “Fundamentalism in India and Nepal is totally different,” he said. “In Nepal, people are very tolerant and are welcome to change. Therefore, we are now promoting tantric tourism walk and promotion of Nepal as a destination for LGBTQ communities as a touristic destination for same-sex marriage.”

marie-eve-breton-royal-canadian-mounted-police-canada-interview

Sat Dec 09 16:26:30 IST 2023

Interview/ Marie-Eve Breton, head of National Communication Services, Royal Canadian Mounted Police, Canada

THE STORM IN INDIA-CANADA ties refuses to abate with rising threats from pro-Khalistani extremists on Canadian soil. New Delhi is upset with Canada’s inaction, while Ottawa continues to blame “Indian agents’’ for the June 18 killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil. The past few months have seen exit of diplomats from both countries, threats to Indian missions and diplomats in Canada, and a sharp rise in warnings about terror attacks on Indian soil. The latest was the open threat against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other Indian leaders by the US-based lawyer Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, adviser to the banned Sikhs for Justice organisation.

THE WEEK asked Marie-Eve Breton of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police about the rising threats by pro-Khalistani extremists and about action to ensure the safety of Indians as well as Canadians. Breton said the RCMP was working closely with its Five Eyes partners (the US, the UK, Australia and New Zealand) to respond to all threats to national security. Excerpts:

Q/There is worry among Indian diplomats in Canada about their safety after repeated threats by pro-Khalistani radicals.

A/For embassies and consular offices, Canada has the responsibility under the Vienna Convention to ensure the inviolability of foreign missions in Canada. The response to, and investigation of, any criminal acts or public order matters that occur in the vicinity of missions would fall to the local police of jurisdiction. RCMP protection is extended to select foreign diplomatic personnel residing in Canada, as per Article 22, based on assessments of threat and risk. For the safety of those we protect as well as our members, and to ensure the integrity of our operations, the RCMP does not disclose information about specific protective measures.

Q/Is not Sikhs for Justice founder Gurpatwant Singh Pannun a risk to public safety after he threatened Hindus on Canadian soil and also issued threats against Indian leaders and Air India passengers?

A/RCMP investigations target criminal activity of any individual(s) who threaten the safety and security of Canadians. The RCMP is committed to working in partnership with both domestic and foreign agencies to keep Canadians safe and secure, and to protect Canadian interests at home and abroad. We remain vigilant about potential threats and take appropriate measures to ensure the safety and security of Canadians.

Q/What steps are being taken in view of repeated threats being made by Pannun against Hindus in Canada?

A/The safety and security of our citizens, regardless of their background or beliefs, remains a top priority for the RCMP. We have strong relationships with Canada’s security and intelligence community and law enforcement agencies around the world. In particular, the RCMP works closely with its Five Eyes partners to respond to, and maintain, situational awareness of all threats to national security. We are committed to working in partnership with both domestic and foreign agencies to keep Canadians safe and secure, and to protect Canadian interests.

Any threats made towards Canadian citizens are taken seriously and investigated as warranted. The RCMP enforces the Criminal Code of Canada, and provincial or territorial and municipal statutes where it is the contracted police of jurisdiction. In parts of the country where the RCMP does not have primary jurisdiction for policing, municipal or provincial police services hold the mandate. We will not tolerate any form of intimidation, harassment, or harmful targeting of communities or individuals in Canada.

Q/Are there concerns in Canada about misuse of religious places to raise funds to fuel separatist activities in India?

A/The RCMP does not investigate movements or ideologies, and will investigate the criminal activity of any individuals who threaten the safety and security of Canadians.

Q/Are you working closely with Indian security agencies to address concerns of weapons trafficking, drug trade and criminal activities in both countries?

A/The RCMP does not comment on potential or ongoing investigations here in Canada, or in other countries. We work closely with our international partners and maintain strong relationships with law enforcement agencies around the world. The RCMP’s assistance in international matters is always conducted with due diligence and in accordance with established policies and procedures in Canada.

Q/India has approached Interpol for action against Pannun. A Red Notice is already issued against gangster Goldy Brar who is in Canada.

A/In order to assist any foreign authority, the RCMP must first receive an official request and supporting documentation through the appropriate channels. Interpol is the first point of contact for many countries pursuing an international investigation. A Red Notice is a request to law enforcement worldwide to locate and potentially effect the provisional arrest of a person pending extradition, surrender or similar legal action. A Red Notice is not an international arrest warrant. The individuals are wanted by the requesting member country. Member countries apply their own laws in deciding whether to arrest a person.

Once the RCMP is made aware of an individual through those channels, it will use a number of assessment tools to determine whether there is any indication of criminality, whether the criminality is within our mandate and what risk they may pose. Due to privacy concerns, we cannot comment on individual cases. The RCMP is aware of the reports involving Brar and will not provide any further comment at this time.

the-pannun-case-will-remain-a-mere-blip-in-the-surging-india-us-ties

Sat Dec 09 16:22:33 IST 2023

AFTER MONTHS of speculation, the United States department of justice formally charged an Indian national, accusing him of working for the Indian government to carry out the planned assassination of a Sikh separatist leader and US citizen, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, in New York. The concerned person, Nikhil Gupta, has been charged with conspiracy and murder for hire. Emphasising that it was “contrary to government policy” to pursue extraterritorial assassinations, New Delhi described the case as a “matter of concern” and underlined that it would be “guided” by the results of a high-level inquiry committee it had set up.

The US charges came weeks after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said there were “credible allegations” linking the Indian government to the killing of another Khalistani activist, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in Canada in June. New Delhi strongly rejected Trudeau’s claims and accused Canada of providing shelter to “Khalistani terrorists and extremists”.

But the Indian response to American accusations has been serious. This is partly because the US has presented actionable evidence and the matter became public only after the investigation was completed. Moreover, the US government, while expecting accountability from India based on the results of New Delhi’s investigations, has been in no hurry to dismantle the relationship. Jonathan Finer, principal deputy national security adviser, suggested that there were many “difficult issues” that remain in the relationship, but he said that there was a bipartisan view in the US that both countries should seize some important opportunities on offer, both geopolitically and economically.

This is what makes this moment in India-US relationship a unique one. In the words of External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, “there is structural soundness in the India-US relationship” and it is “certainly proofed against political check”. The world’s two major democracies are getting better at riding through the bumps in their relationship as they are being driven by a singular strategic logic. It is now a strategic imperative for the two to work closely to maintain a favourable balance of power that advances their key interests and sustains their values. This is particularly true as the centre of gravity of global politics and economics has shifted to the Indo-Pacific and the rise of China has allowed for new challenges to emerge.

The US has understood that a sustained focus on the Indo-Pacific is needed, but it will have to be buttressed by strengthening old partnerships and building new ones. The Cold War era of ‘hub-and-spokes’ alliance framework is no longer the only game in town. Even as the US works with its traditional allies like Japan, Australia and South Korea, it will also have to work with newer partners like India which may never enter into formal alliances. Informal, ad hoc coalitions will have to be built to ensure that convergences can be exploited and divergences managed. This will also require shedding older inhibitions about sharing critical technologies, given their centrality in shaping the 21st century balance of power.

Yet this change and its acceptance across both sides of the political spectrum could only happen because India, too, has evolved in the last decade. Throughout the Cold War, New Delhi understood nonalignment as an instrument to achieve strategic autonomy by shunning close partnerships. Today, that understanding is being turned on its head. Strong partnerships are deemed by Indian policy makers as imperative means to enhance strategic autonomy. Issue-based coalitions are the norm in India’s external engagement today. India today is no longer non-aligned, but is willing to align on the basis of issues. This alignment does not mean formal alliances, but it is a significant shift in Indian foreign policy discourse and practice.

The dramatic resurgence of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue―the Quad―is the strongest manifestation of this new reality. The Quad is important and innovative, not because the US, Japan and Australia are its members; they have been close partners for decades now. The Quad’s real meaning lies in bringing India into this trilateral fold. As a non-alliance partner of the US, it is New Delhi that brings the real oomph to this platform and makes it more than the sum of its parts. China’s real discomfiture with the Quad comes from India’s participation in it and America’s acceptance of this new arrangement.

It is this newfound confidence that has allowed Indian policy makers to take ownership of ties with the US and the west more broadly. Jaishankar recently made it clear that when it comes to technology, India’s natural partners are the western economies.

Ever since the end of the Cold War, changing structural realities have propelled India-US relationship forward. Despite divisive politics at home and the predilections of individual leaders, the trajectory of these ties has continued to maintain an upward trend. More recently, the Ukraine war has underscored the divergences between the two nations. But institutionalisation of this partnership as reflected in the 2+2 arrangement has continued apace, allowing for the two nations to work through their differences “in a constructive way without derailing the broader cooperative agenda”. And it is this remarkable convergence that makes this perhaps the defining relationship of this century.

―The author is vice president, studies and foreign policy, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.

palestinian-american-writer-sharif-s-elmusa-says-the-occupation-has-brutalised-israel-as-well

Sat Nov 04 12:04:26 IST 2023

In order to retain ownership over my distant sky,

I must not own even my very skin.

―Mahmoud Darwish
A Soldier Dreams of White Lilies

IT IS LATE evening in Boston. Far away in Gaza, it is yet another dark night, after another day of nonstop Israeli attacks. Palestinian-American poet Sharif S. Elmusa says what is happening in his homeland is the continuation of the long struggle that started with the British colonial regime taking over Palestine. For him, it is almost like watching a rerun of history.

“Britain helped settle [the Jewish people] in Palestine, and it suppressed all our hopes,” says Elmusa. “We revolted in 1936, before India [became independent]. We were very small people, there was just about a million of us. The British sent 20,000 troops from Europe to crush them. They almost left because of our resistance. But we lost eventually, like everyone else. We are the last people who are not freed from colonialism.”

But it is a battle that is far from over. And there are no winners.

In his essay “Portable Absence: My Camp Remembered”, Elmusa writes that Britain sends expats to other lands, India immigrants, and Palestine exiles. It is in this exile that he continues to remember, and refuses erasure. “It is the dispossession of everything,’’ he says. “Once you lose your country, apart from the material losses, the house, the land and everything, you also lose your historical memory. You are cut off.” That is what Israel is doing to Palestine, he says. “Israel tries to redraw everything. It is the biggest archaeological site in the world. Everyone there is an amateur archaeologist, trying to redraw everything. And our history is being wiped out.”

Elmusa, 76, spent his whole life searching for home. As Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish writes, “I have learned and dismantled all the words in order to draw from them a single word: Home.” Elmusa would know. He grew up in a refugee camp, which he says looked like a version of the streets in American cities. He realised it when he first went to New York. “I understood that the camp is really a modern contraption. It was like the well-organised streets in an American city. The UN used to come every month, and gave people food and stuff. That was the most humiliating thing for my father, and for us.” He stopped going as soon as he grew up.

In a piece he wrote for the Indian Quarterly, Elmusa talks about an opportunity he got to work in Gaza with the United Nations Development Programme and telling his father about the assignment. “[My father], who always praised the last meal he ate as the best, singled out the guavas of Khan Younis as the most delicious guavas he ever had. He was living in Amman, Jordan, at the time where the Elmusas ended up after the 1967 war, during which Israel occupied the rest of Palestine. Fortunately, late summer and early fall is the time when guavas ripen; and I was delighted to be able to send him a whiff of a taste that had lodged itself so deeply in the recesses of his palette, and to have him enjoy for a moment a palpable connection to a land he never again could step into after 1948.”

Elmusa once got a chance to return to the site of the camp in the West Bank where he grew up, the only home he says he knew, even if it was not real. He found that it was all gone, erased. “All had been melted into dusty air.... The houses were all gone. Their whitewashed mud brick walls did not purr when we lived in them, and perhaps had already looked like ruins to outsiders, but they sheltered the private pleasures and agonies of many families, and stood as testimony and symbol of our expulsion in 1948. Now they were not even rubble that one could gaze at and try to reconstruct in the mind’s eye, or reanimate with the lives that once filled them.”

For Palestinians, the erasure was brutal. It was systematic, savage, relentless and complete. And yet, it is constantly denied. “When people were first driven out, they thought they would go back, because most refugees think they would go back,’’ says Elmusa. “This is why Israel destroyed our villages, so that we forget about the idea of returning.”

And to erase the past, even the landscape was changed. The olive tree―quite the symbol of Palestine―was replaced by the pine. Elmusa spent much of his life trying to create biographies of these erased villages, like obituaries to remind people that they existed. “But nature is stronger than we are. The Israelis wanted to make an Israeli landscape because they came from Europe. They had all these pines. They thought it will bring rain to the region, because Europe has this rainfall. But the pines turned out to be a fire hazard. And they accuse the Palestinians of starting the fires.’’

Writing is a form of protest for the Palestinians, but it is also a resistance against erasure. Keeping alive the memory of the past at a time when Israel is trying to rewrite history to wipe out Palestinian claims to the land through reinterpreting archaeology is political as well as personal for the Palestinians. A poem is perhaps “the silence in which the stranger wraps himself to preserve memory, to resist the gravity of the new abode.” It is survival.

And so in the poem “We Never Left”, Palestinian-American writer Susan Abulhawa says, “We persist. We exist. We are one nation, one history, one heritage, one people. Determined and destined to go home.”

Elmusa believes that the only way forward is to accept that. “What I know and what I would like to see is whether Israel will finally realise that it cannot live by the sword. That they have to come to accommodation with the Palestinians and stop this for everybody,’’ he says. “It will destroy everything. It has destroyed us. But they also have been brutalised. The people who were put into concentration camps are putting other people in concentration camps and killing them.”

indian-jews-in-israel-advocate-peaceful-coexistence-with-neighbours-of-different-faiths

Sat Nov 04 16:29:51 IST 2023

NEVATIM, AN idyllic moshav (cooperative agricultural settlement) dominated by Cochin Jews located on Israel’s border with Gaza, was recently called the “living bridge between the two most ancient civilisations’’ by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The first Indian Jewish Heritage Centre in Israel is coming up in Nevatim, which is expected to be a meeting point for Indian Jews in Israel, numbering around a lakh. Indian Jews comprise diverse communities such as the Arabic speaking Baghdadi Jews with roots in Mumbai and Kolkata, Cochin Jews from Kerala, Bene Israel from Maharashtra and B’nei Menashe from Manipur and Mizoram.

Established in 1946 along with 10 other villages in the Negev desert as part of an initiative to create a barrier separating Israel from Egypt and Gaza, Nevatim continues to play a pivotal role following the recent upsurge in violence. As the conflict intensifies, trapped inside the moshav are families of Cochin Jews even as they pray for peace at their beautiful synagogue, adorned with relics from their hometown, located in a green compound where neem, tulsi and ashwagandha grow.

“We are peaceful, hard-working people who built this amazing country. We want to live in safety and peace,” says Dr Nehemia Sahaf, chairman of the Cochin Heritage Centre in Nevatim. “When the [October 7] attacks started, we were in the synagogue for Saturday prayers. It was very difficult to tell people to stop praying and go home to the shelter,” he says. The gatherings have since extended to daily prayers for peace. “Our streets are empty of civilians. The only vehicles moving around belong to security and emergency services.”

Avner Isaac, chairman of the Indian Jewish Heritage Centre, says his dream is to see Jews of Indian origin embrace values of acceptance and peaceful coexistence with neighbours of different origins and religions. The Bene Israelis, the largest group of Indian Jews, are martial men, and their ancestors were part of Chhatrapati Shivaji’s army. “If India is our motherland, Israel is our fatherland,” says Avner. “I came to Israel when I was nine months old. So, all my memories of India are as an adult. As I grew up, I realised that Jews were able to live freely in India without [fearing] anti-Semitism. They have always lived there in peace and harmony with their neighbours. The only time they faced any threat was during the 2008 Mumbai attacks on the Chabad house and other locations.’’

Avner’s father, David Isaac, 91, went to a school in Sassoon docks in Mumbai in the 1940s. It was at the bustling, picturesque dock established by Jewish industrialist Sir Albert Sassoon where he learnt the tools and the trade to become an engineer on merchant ships, setting sail to faraway shores in 1963. As he sits in a bomb shelter today, with sirens going off every few hours, David is, thankfully, saved the trouble of understanding that he is in the midst of a war.

The Jewish population in India has shrunk over the years with most of them emigrating to Israel. But in wars and in facing terror, Jews in India and in Israel have always joined hands. Marian Sofaer, whose mother emigrated to Israel when she was 12, is proud of her links in both countries. She is married to Abraham David Sofaer, an American attorney born in Mumbai. “We found our roots together. I feel we must educate our youth about our diverse heritage,’’ said Marian, who refurbishes old synagogues to put them on the world map.

The deep cultural embrace is fulfilling for many. Ruth Greenfield, 62, daughter of the famous architect Joshua Moses Benjamin, credits her father for instilling in her the values of contributing to the welfare of the community. Benjamin, chief architect of the government of India in the late 19th century, was a key pillar of the Indian Jewish community. He designed the Parliament Annexe building and many other important buildings like the Delhi High Court and the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade. He also designed several embassy and consulate buildings for India. Ruth has memories of visitors walking into their home in Delhi every day. The Jewish community in Delhi was vibrant those days, she says, and Jewish people from across India used to visit Benjamin.

Such bonds are strong even today. Isaac Thangjom, project director of Degel Menashe, an organisation that works for the B’nei Menashe community in Israel, is passionate about India and visits his hometown Imphal often. “Identity forms a very important part of every person. We want to inculcate a sense of pride in our younger generation and an insight and understanding of who they are,’’ he says.

Nearly 5,000 B’nei Menashe Jews in India were planning to make their journey to Israel when the conflict broke out on October 7. Their plans may be on hold at the moment, but the pursuit of peace by Jews of Indian origin continues. In Nevatim, they are joined by their Israeli friends. Ofra Bar Gil grew up in a community surrounded by Indian Jews and got deeply influenced by the ideals of peace and coexistence. “I am an ayurvedic practitioner. To learn more from India is my mission,” she says, waiting for Nevatim to open its gates once again to peace.

pakistan-s-decision-to-deport-afghan-refugees-raises-questions-about-ethics

Tue Oct 31 10:25:32 IST 2023

ON OCTOBER 3, PAKISTAN Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti announced that illegal immigrants in the country should leave by November 1. The caretaker government warned that they would be deported, if they failed to comply. The order has hit unregistered immigrants from Afghanistan the hardest, forcing the United Nations to weigh in. Said Qaiser Khan Afridi, spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), “We have seen disconcerting press reports about a plan to deport undocumented Afghans and we are seeking clarity from our government partners. Any refugee return must be voluntary and without any pressure to ensure protection for those seeking safety.”

Since the move has been seen as targeting Afghan migrants who number around 37 lakh, Pakistan’s foreign office clarified that the order applied to all foreigners without valid documents. A foreign office spokesperson said Pakistan’s policy towards Afghan refugees “remained unchanged” and the ongoing operation was against individuals who had either overstayed their visas or did not have valid documents. Pakistan has hosted millions of Afghan refugees since the Soviet Union’s invasion in 1979.

There are about four types of Afghan refugees, according to journalist Azaz Syed. The first category has been in the country since the time of the Soviet invasion. A lot of them still remain undocumented despite the group being in Pakistan for at least three generations. The second group got themselves registered in 2007, and got a document called proof of registration (PoR). This was done with the help of the UNHCR. The third category comprises people who registered in 2017 through the Afghan Citizen Card (ACC). Those with the PoR and ACC number around 22 lakh.

The fourth category, numbering around seven lakh, came to Pakistan after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in August 2021. Most of them are in ‘transit’, as they want to leave for a third country. They are spread across cities such as Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore and Karachi. The UNHCR and some countries are supporting them. “A large number of Afghans have become an integral part of Pakistani society. Some of them have also sneaked into the system and got Pakistani citizenship and passports,” said Syed.

A distressing situation has unfolded in Karachi, where over a thousand Afghan refugees were arrested by the local police, said Moniza Kakar, a lawyer. “Police say they are undocumented, but a majority of them possess valid identification cards,” said Kakar. “The wrongful arrests and detention of documented refugees have raised serious humanitarian concerns. These individuals have fled from conflict and instability in Afghanistan, seeking refuge and safety. Their unjust incarceration not only puts their wellbeing at risk, but also highlights the need for a closer examination of the situation.”

Aman Ullah, a PoR card holder, told THE WEEK that after the announcement about illegal immigrants was made, even PoR card holders were not spared. Often, their cards are snatched and destroyed by the police. “Wherever the police see an Afghan, it happens. More than 2,000 Afghans with PoR or ACC cards are in jail, apart from those who do not have papers. Afghans are worried and are going back home,” he said. “Things have improved a little after the interior minister’s announcement that seized identity documents should be returned. Some courts in Karachi have given relief to card holders, but others have not. Those Afghans who have businesses like restaurants in Karachi are being told by building owners to vacate.” Most Afghans are scared to venture out of their homes.

“Refugees fleeing war and turmoil have a moral right to seek refuge in another country and to be treated with dignity and empathy,” said Harris Khalique, secretary general of the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan. He said the HRCP was lobbying the government to reverse the blanket decision to ban all migrants, as it would affect vulnerable groups, including women and children.

Khushal Khattak of the National Democratic Movement (NDM), a Pashtun nationalist political party, told THE WEEK that following the caretaker government’s announcement, Afghans were arrested in hundreds and raids were being conducted in their places. “This is why it seems that this is directed at the Afghans.” And, in the case of valid document holders, many of them are let off after bribes are paid. In recent weeks, some Afghan settlements in Islamabad have been razed. “These are poor people. There is also a fear within the Afghan community that if they are arrested, the bail process is very problematic and difficult,” said Khattak.

NDM chairperson Mohsin Dawar introduced a bill for the protection of refugees, but it was not allowed to be on the agenda. “There is a lot of uncertainty and fear within the Afghan community. Human rights activists and Pashtun parties are talking about it. Unfortunately, mainstream voices are missing,” said Khattak. “There is a danger to some of these Afghans from the Afghan Taliban and it would be difficult for them to go back. Also, there is no state in Afghanistan at the moment. What are they supposed to return to? This is a humanitarian crisis. There needs to be more voices so that the government reconsiders this policy.”

Former lawmaker and senior politician Bushra Gohar said the Afghans were being forced out because of the Doha deal between the US and its allies and the Taliban. “The unending cycle of pain and suffering of the displaced Afghans has been exacerbated by Pakistan’s caretaker government with its announcement of forced eviction and deportation. Giving a deadline to leave and threatening to check DNAs of Afghans is meant to add to their sufferings and is in violation of human rights.” She said it was not the first time that such knee-jerk reactions had been taken by the government against vulnerable Afghan refugees to divert attention from its failed Afghan policies.

“Those who came much earlier and have legal documents are also facing harassment and extortion. Homes in Kutchi (an Afghan nomadic group) settlements have been razed before the announced deadline. Such reactions are in violation of universal human rights and international conventions. Pakistan with a large refugee population does not have a coherent policy and law for refugees. A private member bill was tabled in the previous National Assembly but it was obstructed and not allowed to be debated,” said Gohar. She asked the government to facilitate registration of families, especially women and children forced to leave Afghanistan to avoid persecution by the Taliban. Gohar said terrorising the vulnerable Afghan population to build pressure on the Taliban must end. “Finally, it is not the mandate of caretaker governments to take such policy decisions with serious human rights, security and foreign policy implications.”

Zebunnisa Burki, a senior journalist who focuses on humanitarian issues, said it would be cruel to send back scores of refugees to a country devastated not just by war, but also by a regime that did not care for its people. She also spoke about the devastation caused by the recent earthquake and the impact of the western sanctions. “Why are we sending them back now? If the government wants to crack down on smuggling and other activities, it should be done, but sending the Afghan refugees back by giving them a deadline is sheer cruelty.”

The government, however, pushed back at the criticism. Interior Minister Bugti told THE WEEK that the new policy was not specifically against Afghans. “It is not aimed at any specific ethnic group or any specific country,” he said. “Anyone who is here with a refugee status or a transit status are our guests. We are only asking illegal immigrants―those who have illegal businesses here, those who have breached our security data to make illegal identity cards, be it Afghans or people of any other nationality―to leave.”

israel-s-retaliation-against-hamas-could-lead-to-a-wider-conflict-in-the-middle-east

Sat Oct 21 16:54:55 IST 2023

On the walls of the National Digital Centre in Sderot, a small city in southern Israel, there are pictures of nearly 90 hostages, now believed to be in Gaza. According to Israeli officials, the youngest hostage is just nine months old while the oldest are above 80. It is yet another painful reminder of the Hamas attack on October 7, which left nearly 1,500 Israelis dead and more than 3,000 injured.

“If the United States had its ‘9/11’, this is ‘7/10’ for us. A date we will never forget,” said Amir, a 42-year-old Israeli travel operator. “Ours is a tiny country with a small population. Imagine what will happen if some 50,000 people are massacred in a day in a similar attack in the US and the reactions that it will generate.” Like everyone else in Israel, Amir, too, has had his share of national service. The Israel Defence Forces has not yet recalled him because of a health condition. “I am very angry. I am also worried because I have children. Who can murder women, children and the elderly? You have to be a criminal of the worst sort to do this kind of thing,” said Amir. “I was in the army so I can understand a soldier killing another soldier. We will not let even our coming generations forget this.”

The road from Tel Aviv airport to Jerusalem is usually chock-a-block with traffic, even on Friday nights, just before Sabbath. But as THE WEEK team took the road, it looked deserted as Israelis preferred to stay indoors, feeling worried and afraid. Also, most mobilised reservists have already left to join their units.

Israel has mobilised more than three lakh reservists. Among them is Naomi, a 20-year-old girl from Sderot. At an age when she should be studying, Naomi is carrying an M16 automatic rifle. “Nobody should face what we are facing,” she said, pointing towards vehicles full of bullet holes.

Ronen, a 45-year-old first responder from Sderot, recalled the first distress call which came at 6:30 in the morning on October 7. “It was about a rocket hit on a building. As we were rushing there, the mayor summoned me to the command centre. He said terrorists were shooting everywhere and had killed 41 victims in Sderot alone. I pulled an injured officer aside from the road, picked up his M16 and started firing at the terrorists. I got hit by two bullets on my left shoulder,” said Ronen, a former soldier. “Hamas is Islamic State. Today it is us, tomorrow it will be you. Recognise this evil and destroy it,” he said.

Shira, a shy eight-year-old girl from Sderot, was trying to reach her father, Ofir, all through the day. Ofir was busy fighting and rescuing people. “Dozens of bodies were lying on the streets. I think over a thousand terrorists attacked that day and many of them had come equipped to stay here for long. We fought them off,” said Ofir.

Dafna Rousso and her family members from kibbutz Kfar Aza, five kilometres east of Gaza, woke up to the sound of sirens on October 7. She and her husband Uri could hear indiscriminate shooting from very close quarters. “Our three daughters were sleeping in safe rooms and my husband left quickly. When my daughters asked me about him, I told them that daddy never went anywhere without saying goodbye, so he would be back. Although I sent him a text message, there was no reply,” said Dafna. She then went to the head of the community brigade in the kibbutz, but he did not have any answers for her. “Upon hearing the firing outside, my initial thought was that it was the IDF trying to protect us. Only later did I realise what was really happening,” she said.

Dafna’s sister then messaged her that Hamas killed her mother-in-law and injured her son Netta. “The kid is so close to me. It was at this time that I realised that something very bad was happening to us,” she said. Dafna and her daughters were locked inside their house till the IDF arrived. Along with help, however, came some very bad news. The IDF told her that Uri lost his life in the battle with Hamas. “The army returned his personal weapon and six bullets were missing. They told us that there were six dead people around him. So he managed to kill at least six terrorists. I told my daughters that their father was a hero. He did whatever he could to keep everybody safe,” said Dafna, holding back tears. “I want my daughters to remember how much their father loved them and how he wanted the best for them.”

Nani and Avital are an elderly couple living in kibbutz Magen in northwestern Negev near Gaza. When rockets started raining in, they went into the shelter inside their house, along with their daughter Nil and her husband and three babies. Nani and Avital have another daughter, Rimon, who lived in kibbutz Nir Am. “Rimon texted Nani that terrorists were outside her window and were firing indiscriminately. By around 8:30am Nani and Avital lost contact with Rimon,” said Shani, Rimon’s cousin. “When they went to look for her, they found the house riddled with bullets and covered in blood.”

Nani returned to her house and the family was forced to defend themselves for nearly 30 hours. Help came only by the night of October 8. Nil was evacuated to the Dead Sea region along with her husband and three children, while Nani and Avital were taken to a hospital in Tel Aviv. Rimon and her husband are still missing, most probably taken to Gaza as hostages. “Rimon is 36, she takes care of animals that no one wants. She also loves music and flowers. Why would someone do this to her?” asked a weeping Shani.

Kibbutz Be’eri, located in Negev desert near the eastern border with Gaza, looks like a ghost community now. There are signs of destruction all round. Charred houses, destroyed vehicles and broken toys are everywhere, and the entire area reeks of burning smell. Roads are strewn with bullets from automatic weapons; there are abandoned RPGs, unexploded munitions and other weapons. More than 100 Israelis were killed in Be’eri on October 7. “It was a peaceful residential community till that morning. Terrorists massacred everyone whom they could target. We know that 54 police officers were killed, as they tried to save civilians,” said police spokesperson Dean Elsdunne.

Air raid sirens can be heard across Israel, as Hamas continues to fire rockets and Israel’s air defence systems intercept them. As sirens go off, one has to lie down quickly, with the response time being just about seven seconds. Sirens sounded twice when we were in Be’eri and there were explosions lasting about five minutes each.

“The battle in Be’eri went on for hours. Hamas came into our houses, took hostages and shot many people, forcing other family members to watch the massacre. They raped women and beheaded children. Then they sat down, and had food. The world needs to see this monster. Israel has every right to defend itself,” said Elsdunne.

The woes of affected areas like Be’eri are felt across the country, including Jerusalem, Judaism’s holiest city. Jerusalem, which has a significant presence of Palestinians and Israeli Arabs, is on edge. We saw the arrest of one of them. His car was intercepted by a six-member security team. He was asked to get out, the car was searched thoroughly for weapons and then his hands and legs were cuffed. He and his car were then taken away by the police.

A woman who was present at the scene told us that such things happened routinely to Arabs and Palestinians. “For us, it has always been like this. Sometimes I feel whether Israel wanted this attack to happen so that they could retaliate heavily and could also get aid and more military supplies from the US,” said the woman, who works as a customer relations executive.

An Arab hotel owner whose family has been living in Jerusalem for more than four centuries echoed similar sentiments. “We have been suffering in silence for long. My ancestral house in the Old City is almost 400 years old. The Israeli army is very mean to us, they beat up our people every day. We have to be brave and patient,” he said.

There are many more people in Jerusalem with similar tales to share. A Palestinian taxi driver who grew up in Jerusalem said the city was beautiful and had a rich history, but the constant strife and tensions had made it unappealing for people like him. “I studied electrical engineering, but during the second Intifada in 2003, I was arrested by Israeli forces just because I had gone to fix some electrical appliances at a Jewish citizen’s house. I was only 22. My career was over in a matter of days and I had to take up the job of a taxi driver,” he said.

As Israel intensifies its efforts to dismantle Hamas, the threat of ground war is growing by the minute, despite the arrival of US President Joe Biden in Tel Aviv. As we drove from Ashkelon to Netiv HaAsara on the Gaza border, we saw the full mobilisation of the IDF with tanks, armoured personnel carriers and artillery guns lined up on both sides of the road. Camps of soldiers are everywhere. They do not say much, except asking journalists not to take photos. Overhead, we could hear IDF jets raiding Gaza unchallenged, leaving behind a trail of death and destruction.

The Israeli government has vowed to finish off Hamas once and for all. Tal Heinrich, spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, replied to a query of this correspondent that the IDF would make sure that each and every perpetrator of the October 7 attacks would be dealt with severely. Israel says it will not negotiate with terrorists and has demanded the unconditional return of all hostages. Qatar, which hosts key Hamas leaders, is said to be trying to ensure the safe return of the hostages.

The entire Middle East is worried that the Israel-Hamas war could escalate into a wider conflict, forcing major world powers to step in. With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine, yet another major conflict will have devastating consequences not just for the Middle East, but for the world.

the-biggest-casualty-of-the-israel-hamas-war-is-the-new-middle-east

Sat Oct 21 15:32:17 IST 2023

THE ROAD TO hell is paved with good intentions. This was never truer for US President Joe Biden than it is now. Preparing for a re-election bid, he is watching the new Middle East turning into ashes. And he has a task that only Agent Ethan Hunt in a Mission Impossible movie could pull off―find a solution for the messiest problem since the 1940s, the Israel-Palestine conflict. And on a deadline.

“The situation is dire,” said Kabir Taneja, fellow at Observer Research Foundation. “This has pushed the question of Palestine, for long on the back burner, now to the front and centre.”

Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7 put an end to the dreams of a new Middle East. The subsequent bombing of Gaza by Israel has ensured that the humanitarian crisis in the region will only become worse, and the pressure to find a fix will only mount. From both sides.

Backing down now will not be an easy choice for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, especially because he is facing corruption charges. For the rest of the Middle East, which was determined to find a better economic situation by sweeping the Palestine question under the carpet, the killing of the civilians in Gaza needs a response to satisfy the domestic audience.

Any American attempt to douse the fire has been met with resistance. Even Biden’s quick visit did not change the situation. Earlier, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had a tough time lobbying for a stronger position on Hamas by Arab nations. Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, reportedly kept him waiting for hours, setting the tone for what followed.

The redrawing of the Middle East―using economics to gloss over the problems―with the Abraham accords and the normalisation of Israel-Saudi Arabia relations is now back to square one. The civil nuclear deal and the weapons that Saudi Arabia wanted from the US will no longer be an incentive good enough. “Saudi Arabia cannot even think of flirting with Israel,” said Talmiz Ahmad, former ambassador of India to Saudi Arabia.

If October 7 was a turning point for Israel, the attack on the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza City on October 17 could well be another one for the conflict. It has added another level of complexity to the mix, forcing Jordan―the second Arab country to sign a peace deal with Israel in 1994―to cancel a summit with Biden. The summit was a desperate attempt to keep the balance in the region that is a powder keg. That Jordan cancelled it at a time when it could have helped the country become a leader in the region and kept it in the good books of the US shows how emotive the issue is. About three million people of Palestinian origin are there in Jordan.

Diplomacy apart, the bigger challenge will be dealing with the fallout of the crisis. Gaza has been demolished, and rebuilding it will be a herculean task. The Arab nations that are offering solidarity have refused to take in any refugees. So far the border with Egypt remains closed. Jordan, too, is unable to cope with more refugees. “That is a red line, because I think that is the plan by certain of the usual suspects to try and create de facto issues on the ground. No refugees in Jordan, no refugees in Egypt,” said King Abdullah of Jordan at a news conference after a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin. The Palestinians, too, do not want to leave Gaza, because that will amount to ceding their land to Israel. How this will play out in the near future remains to be seen.

What makes it more tricky for the US is that China has already made inroads in the region. President Xi Jinping may not have the answers―certainly not the right ones―for the problems, but he has already taken a pro-Arab position. For now, the problem is very much Biden’s. And he won’t be the first American president to fail at it.

israel-will-have-to-fight-in-the-terrain-of-hamas-s-choosing

Sat Oct 21 15:29:35 IST 2023

NOT JUST ‘SMOKE on the water’ and ‘a fire in the sky’―there will be an inferno in the netherworld, too, in the event of the war that Israel is gearing up for. On the face of it, there seems to be absolute asymmetry between the military might of Israel and Palestinian militias. But, it is not as overwhelming as it appears. Because this is to be an unconventional battle.

The entire Gaza enclave is perched atop an intricate and complex network of concrete tunnels. The tunnel construction work, believed to have begun in 1999, had picked up pace after Hamas seized power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

On March 5, 2014, Israel’s navy intercepted a ship carrying weapons destined for Gaza. It had rockets, mortar shells and ammunition, and, another strategic commodity―cement, from Iran; about 100 containers (more than 2 million tonnes) of it. A report by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA), a leading think-tank, says that by 2014, Israel had “discovered 100km of tunnels in Gaza, one-third of which stretched under Israeli territory”. In fact, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) undertook Operation Protective Edge in 2014 with the prime intent of destroying the tunnel network, but only about 30 tunnels that ran into Israel were discovered and destroyed.

The issue for Israel is that the tunnels will facilitate full-blown urban guerrilla warfare, street by street and lane by lane. Israeli battle tanks rumbling through streets can be targeted by guerrillas wielding shoulder-launched anti-tank weapons. An IDF post says: “Hamas’s tunnel network is in fact a vast underground city with dozens of access points located throughout Gaza. Hamas uses these tunnels as weapons caches, bunkers, command centers and a concealed transportation artery for terrorists and weapons, including rocket launchers.”

By lying deceptively low while Israel focused more on the much-larger Hezbollah, Hamas has built tunnel networks much beyond Gaza and well into Egypt’s Sinai and into Israel. Hidden from satellites and drones, these well-camouflaged tunnels crisscross underneath residential quarters, schools, public buildings, open areas and are well-lighted, ventilated, and big enough for free movement of men and material. Over the years, several operations by the IDF aimed at destroying the Hamas tunnel infrastructure have only served to expand it.

The new extensive and deeper tunnels also serve as operational bases, weapons manufacturing units, arsenals, jails and places to trap the enemy, apart from being entry and exit points for operations. It is a terrain whose layout only the Hamas knows.

Aware of the threat, the IDF set up its own tunnel warfare unit―the Yahalom. Its mandate is to “discover, clear, and destroy terror tunnels”. It is divided into the Yael or the unit engineering reconnaissance force; the Sayfan, for the handling of non-conventional weapons; and the Samur, specialist tunnel fighters.

Apart from tunnels, Hamas has also honed its weapons manufacturing ability. A JCPA report in August 2021 concluded that Hamas had developed enormous capability to produce its arsenal and was no longer fighting an asymmetrical war. It warned that Hamas was developing “drones and unmanned underwater vehicles, engaging in cyber warfare, and on the cusp of graduating from unguided rockets to precision, GPS-guided drones and missiles”.

There is also the spectre of the war spilling into multiple fronts. The omnipresent Hezbollah threat is already beginning to manifest into the opening of a new front. And, the US-led west will soon have to divide its weapons supply between Ukraine and Israel.

All these factors mean that Israel faces a serious tactical and strategic dilemma. No wonder Tel Aviv blamed a thick cloud cover for the delay in its ground offensive. It is still waiting.

arab-world-wants-it-s-dignity-back

Sat Oct 21 16:48:34 IST 2023

GAZA IS FACING A catastrophe as Israel is determined to uproot Hamas and other armed groups in the enclave. The heavy bombs are being dropped to reach the tunnels. Common people are paying the price for the Hamas attack on Israel. We are seeing massive displacement of Gazans―we fear a third of the total 2.3 million people will be displaced. Most of them are refugees from Palestine―from Jaffa, Haifa and Jerusalem. They are third and fourth generation refugees who are getting displaced again.

As Israel continues its Gaza operation, the normalisation of its ties with other Middle Eastern states will be delayed, because under these clouds of war, Saudi Arabia will be reluctant to shake hands with it. In any case, Saudi Arabia will not give Biden this electoral card ahead of the elections. It will try to postpone the process as much as possible and give this to Donald Trump or any other Republican.

This operation could mark the end of Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan is gaining now, as it is trying to ride the tide of people’s massive solidarity with Hamas. And it is not just about Hamas, it is about resistance against the occupier. For people in the Arab world, it is not that they want the death of Israelis. They want their dignity back. They feel that they have been crushed all the time by the Israeli occupation in the West Bank and in Gaza. They want justice, fairness, and dignity.

Officially, most of the Middle Eastern countries spoke about the need to save civilians and about the need for restraint, but they did not condemn Israel directly because the US was very stern when it said that all countries should condemn Hamas. But had they condemned Hamas, the streets in Amman and in Cairo and in other places would have gone up in flames because of the anger and despair, and the solidarity they feel with the Palestinian cause.

Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Iraq, meanwhile, condemned Israel unequivocally as they follow Iran. The Iranian foreign minister visited Beirut and Damascus to discuss future plans. But if they open a front against Israel, Iran will definitely be under attack. That is why the US is sending a second aircraft carrier to the eastern Mediterranean. From Damascus, the Iranian foreign minister went to Doha, which is home to Hamas high operatives like Khaled Mashal. The US secretary of state was also in Doha, for mediation and for exploring the possibility of prisoner swap between Israel and Hamas, and to lessen Gaza’s destruction.

A major casualty of this conflict would be Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing ministers. They will face many questions. After the conflict ends, he will be blamed for what happened. There will be a committee like the one that was formed after the 1973 war. Netanyahu’s popularity is at its lowest now. Benny Gantz, who is his partner in the unity government, has seen his popularity rising tremendously. So we are heading towards punishment for Netanyahu, but not right now. We are talking about early next year―when things would be clear in Gaza, and Hamas would be crushed.

Hattar heads News Roya Media Group, the largest privately owned media company in Jordan.

―As told to Ajish P. Joy.

the-best-time-to-visit-russia-amidst-conflict

Sat Oct 07 17:45:18 IST 2023

Russia is undoubtedly an unconventional choice for a holiday destination in 2023. Visiting a country in the throes of war, and deemed an enemy of the west, seems like walking into the lion’s den. Surprisingly, it was quite the opposite, not least because Russia, being the aggressor, has contained the war to within Ukraine. Barring a few drone attacks, there has barely been aggression on Russian soil.

Thus, after getting assurances from contacts in Russia that life in the two largest cities, Saint Petersburg and Moscow, was carrying on as normal, a long pending trip, cancelled multiple times for various reasons, came to fruition in August.

Before the pandemic, Russia was a much sought-after destination, and flights and hotels were quickly booked up during the summer months, when the weather is warm and at its best. For a large part of the year, the country experiences sub-zero temperatures, hence the weather window to enjoy the sights and outdoors is short. Americans flocked there in droves and an increasing number of Indians were visiting year-on-year.

A country with a fascinating history, beautiful buildings, meticulously maintained museums, numerous monuments, monasteries and churches, grand palaces, breathtaking gardens, and rivers bustling with activity, there is simply so much to see and do in summertime Russia.

While its streets were bereft of international tourists this year, Russian tourists were aplenty. With travel sanctions imposed upon them because of the war, Russians have chosen to travel within their own vast country this summer; so instead of a week in Spain, it is a week in Sochi, and those from Sochi are visiting the sights of Saint Petersburg.

As New Delhi has taken a ‘neutral’ stance on the war, Indians are very welcome. In fact, because of the overall reduction in tourists, hotel rooms are plentiful, tickets to sought-after sights are easily available, streets and museums are less crowded, and because of the falling rouble, eating out, accommodation and entertainment has never been cheaper.

In Saint Petersburg and Moscow, you would be hard-pressed to tell that this was a country at war. Streets and sidewalks were bustling with musicians, artists and teens making dance videos for TikTok, diners were enjoying long, languorous lunches alfresco, parks were swarming with people making the most of the glorious summer weather, and rivers, lakes and waterways were teeming with boats and water sports.

Theatres and dance performances were in full swing. We saw a new production of the The Nutcracker ballet at Saint Petersburg’s famous Mariinksy Theatre. There were no signs of any war-time austerity; the sets and costumes were spectacular, and the production pulled out all the stops.

After Russia invaded Ukraine, many international companies pulled out of Russia; some remained. When multinational fast-food chain McDonald's pulled out, a Russian firm took over their restaurants, using a different name and logo but serving the same fare. Burger King, however, is still very much around. There are coffee shops that looks exactly like Starbucks, with a slightly different name and logo. Many international fashion brands, too, shut shop. Their withdrawal meant a plethora of empty shop spaces in prime localities. This led to the burgeoning of local fashion brands, some of which are now thriving.

After the war began, many Russian banks were banned from the SWIFT international payment messaging system. Major international credit card companies like Mastercard, Visa and American Express, too, withdrew their services from Russia.

Some hotels, however, are still accepting Visa or Mastercard credit cards issued in India. To pay for other travel expenses, the only way is to change dollars or other currency into roubles. This can be easily done at several banks and money exchanges that are open around the clock, seven days a week.

In many countries in Europe these days, pickpocketing and homelessness is rampant. Moscow and Saint Petersburg, however, did not have either of these. Streets were safe and spotless, thanks to the government-sponsored cleaning system that works like clockwork.

While we entered Russia with trepidation, cautious not to discuss sensitive topics such as the war in Ukraine or President Vladimir Putin, we found that our tour guides were happy to discuss these factors openly and were unafraid to express their opinion. Professional, licensed tour guides in Russia are highly educated, knowledgeable and articulate since they need to pass multiple exams to qualify and are required to frequently update their licenses.

Our guides in Saint Petersburg and Moscow, all of whom spoke excellent English, were unanimous in their opinion that Russia was a resilient country and would be able to withstand external pressure or sanctions. “If you stop selling us Parmesan cheese, we will make our own Parmesan cheese,” said Julia, 46, a tour guide in Saint Petersburg, as we walked towards the renowned State Hermitage Museum.

The war, however, has gone on longer than anticipated, and both Russia and Ukraine have lost a large number of troops. “The war has lasted so long because Russia is fighting not only with Ukraine, but also with the US, Europe and the UK,” said Aitan, 48, a professional tour guide in Saint Petersburg who took us on a tour of the magnificent Peterhof Palace and its exquisite gardens.

“The price of human life was never high here; group interests always dominated personal ones, for better or worse,” said Svetlana, 49, a teacher and tour guide in Moscow, as she walked us through the Red Square, adjacent to the Kremlin. “Russia has substantially high resources of people, minerals, and incredibly gold reserves. It seems like Russia is quite ready for long-term military operations. Ukraine’s harsh resistance was unexpected, and its military readiness was underestimated.”

As the war drags into its 19th month, Ukraine’s allies and neighbours are getting weary. On September 20, amid growing tension between Kyiv and Warsaw over a dispute regarding grain exports, Polish Prime Minster Mateusz Morawiecki, said that Poland would no longer be supplying weapons to Ukraine. Recent polls have shown that the American public, too, are growing weary. Republicans are opposed to President Joe Biden’s latest request to Congress for $24 billion for additional aid to Ukraine.

Russians, in general, have strong feelings about American influence on the war and in world politics. “America influences most of the world to favour itself,” said Aitan. “It gets whatever it wants by exerting pressure on other countries.” Added Svetlana: “In general, there is a strong opinion that the US influence keeps many countries from helping Russia or trading with it.”

Their views, however, were varied on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. “He was a comedian and I don’t take him seriously; he doesn’t have the education to rule the country,” said Aitan, as we discussed the war on the drive back from the opulent Catherine’s Palace on the outskirts of St. Petersburg. Svetalana said that though many Russians view him as western pawn, she did not, and felt sorry for him and the position he had been put in. Her friend, Lana, 53, who is also a tour guide in Moscow, too, is supportive. “Zelenskyy is the democratically elected president of Ukraine,” she said. “Russian propaganda works hard to persuade people that he is a puppet of the US and NATO.”

Do they think NATO will admit Ukraine? “Whatever Russians think about the Americans, we don’t consider them stupid enough to do so,” said Svetalana. “Americans are used to fighting with others’ hands.”

In spite of difficulties faced in recent times, opinion polls show that Putin remains the most popular politician in the country. In August, his approval rating stood at 80 per cent, higher that before the invasion of Ukraine, according to the Levada Centre. “Many people will say they like Putin, but many will refuse to say anything,” said Lana. “Russians are very cautious about expressing any criticism towards the president.” Who do they think will succeed Putin? “We are used to our leaders appearing from nowhere,” said Svetlana, as we view one of the Stalinist-era buildings in Moscow. “Who expected [Mikhail] Gorbachev, the youngest of all politburo members, to succeed [Konstantin] Chernenko? Who knew Putin before he was appointed by [Boris] Yeltsin? Russian history is full of surprises. Let us see.”

What do they think about Indians and India?

“Russians find Indians friendly, kind, and happy people,” said Lana. “They consider India a fast-developing, beautiful country with rich history and culture.” Svetlana said that Russians from older generations “still cherish warm memories of the once-strong and warm ties” with India. “Hindi movies used to be very popular in Soviet Russia,” she said. “In my mother’s generation they all knew Raj Kapoor’s song from Awaara by heart. In my youth, we were crazy about Mithun Chakraborty’s Disco Dancer.

Surnames of tour guides have been omitted to protect identity. All opinions expressed are personal.

the-effects-of-canada-s-liberal-immigration-policy-and-weak-counter-terrorism-laws

Sat Oct 07 12:41:05 IST 2023

On the outskirts of Castlegar, a little town in British Columbia, a statue of Russian novelist Leo Tolstoy stands tall in the garden of the Doukhobor Discovery Centre. Much before Khalistani terrorists brought a culture of guns and gangs to British Columbia, the province became synonymous with the nonviolent and pacifist ideals of the Doukhobors. A small ethno-religious group of Russian origin, the Doukhobors fled to Canada in the 1890s, fearing persecution from the Russian church and state. Tolstoy is said to have assisted in their mass migration, and his statue stands testimony to his efforts and Canada’s tradition of welcoming refugees.

Canada has come a long way since. Today, it has become the go-to place for migrants from across the world, including refugees from conflict regions. But among them, a number of terror operatives, ranging from the Islamic State (IS), Palestine’s Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah to Sri Lanka’s Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and Pakistan’s Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, have also found a safe haven for clandestine activities.

“Canada is hesitant to admit it, but the threats from immigrants is very palpable as it has also attracted terrorists, criminals and extremists,” says Wyatt Claypool, senior Canadian journalist. He cites the example of the 2018 Danforth shooting. “The police identified the gunman as Faisal Hussain, son of a Pakistani immigrant,” he says. “While some reports claimed that Hussain may have visited Pakistan before the shooting and that the Islamic State claimed the attack, there seemed to be a lot of hesitation to delve into the Islamist links to the incident. It was blamed on mental health issues finally.”

Moreover, Canada has been carrying out multiple repatriation operations for its nationals who were IS fighters following the dismantlement of the IS’s caliphate, a key priority of the United States. Ottawa was even lauded by Washington for its gesture. “We saw the IS fighters returning with no problem whatsoever,” says Claypool.

But what troubles Canadians more than terrorism is money laundering by front groups of extremist organisations. Recently, there were calls within Canada’s House of Commons to proscribe the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for its alleged links with global drug syndicates and money laundering activities of the Hezbollah, says Claypool. The Trudeau government was asked to take aggressive action, especially after the downing of Ukraine International Airlines flight 752, which took off from Tehran in 2020, killing all 176 passengers, including 55 Canadian citizens. “But the government has put the IRGC on some sort of immigration ban list, which does not mean anything because no IRGC member wants to move to Canada, except to use it as a base for clandestine activities,” says Claypool.

New Delhi’s charge that pro-Khalistani terrorists are using Canada as their base to carry out terror and criminal activities on Indian soil is no different. “There is this kind of assumption that you would be labelled racist or xenophobic or bigoted if you say anything about the Khalistan issue,” admits Claypool. He also agrees that Canada will not call them out and people are getting away because of its weak counter-terrorism policies.

India is not alone. For the last two decades, Dhaka has been asking Ottawa to extradite Nur Chowdhury, the self-confessed assassin of Bangladesh’s founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Its foreign minister A.K. Abdul Momen even said that Canada was ignoring their plea in the name of human rights.

Extraditions are not easy from Canada, especially when death penalty is possible or where a case can be made out that the individual is unlikely to receive fair trial. “There are potential complications in a few cases like the Hassan Diab case,” admits Ward Elcock, former chief of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. Diab, a Canadian citizen, was extradited to France in 2014 and tried in the 1980 bombing of a Paris synagogue. In April, a court in France sentenced him to life; the Trudeau government vowed to stand up for Canadians and their rights.

“Reluctance to act in national security matters can sour relationships with friendly countries looking for cooperation and collaborations in countering global threats like terrorism and financial crimes,” says Colombo-based international security expert Rohan Gunaratna, who wrote the foreword to Stewart Bell’s Cold Terror: How Canada Nurtures and Exports Terrorism Around the World.

Sri Lanka, too, has expressed concern over the clandestine activities of the banned LTTE in Canada to raise funds, procure weapons and even influence the vast diaspora of Sri Lankan Tamils.

Likewise, India has been trying to achieve a common ground with Canada on the Khalistan terror issue under successive prime ministers. Vaishali Basu Sharma, a strategic analyst at New Delhi-based Policy Perspective Foundation, said former prime minister Manmohan Singh during his 2010 trip to attend the G20 summit in Toronto had asked Canada “to stop people from using religious places to promote extremism”, a decade-long concern that has now led to the souring of diplomatic ties between the two countries.

Ottawa’s ties with Beijing are also strained, albeit for a different reason. Thanks to its liberal migrant policies, Chinese nationals, originally from Hong Kong, have found easy entry into and access to acquire assets or invest in Canada, says Jonathan Berkshire Miller, director of foreign affairs and national security at Ottawa’s Macdonald-Laurier Institute. China is probably the country most active in ‘foreign interference operations’in Canada. “There is absolutely a problem when Beijing-connected Chinese individuals come to Canada, not for the purpose of setting up legitimate businesses and operating them but basically for making Canada more reliant on the Chinese government,” says Claypool.

Srikanth Kondapalli, professor in Chinese studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, said Chinese interference in Canada was well-documented. There were fireworks between Beijing and Ottawa when Huawei heiress apparent Meng Wanzhou was detained in 2018 at Vancouver airport on a US warrant for alleged bank fraud and business dealings in Iran. She was allowed to leave the country later. In another instance, Kondapalli recalled how two Chinese scientists, researching the zoonotic virus from camels at the Winnipeg laboratory, travelled to Wuhan before the outbreak of Covid-19. “The case led to an investigation by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and demands for discussion in the House of Commons amid concerns of Chinese espionage. But the outcome of the probe isn’t known,”says Kondapalli.

Domestically, the migration problem is being compounded by thousands of asylum seekers entering Canada from the US every day from Roxham Road border crossing. “It has been a bit of a scam, bringing immigrants on the promise of jobs and happier lives as authorities turn a blind eye,” says Claypool. “The problem is we are overstocking our country and outpacing our level of home building. The dangerous outcome is that Canada is fast becoming a playground for Mexican drug cartels. The fentanyl crisis, especially in areas like Toronto and Vancouver, is out of control with number of deaths rising exponentially.”

In the same way, illegal firearms and gunrunning have given way to a new Canadian gun culture that was nonexistent at one point. Even as the Trudeau government is talking about a full ban on firearms, illegal firearms are making their way to pro-Khalistani groups.

It may do well for Trudeau to revisit Tolstoy’s wise words―“Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one thinks of changing himself.”

professor-and-author-rohan-gunaratna-interview

Sat Oct 07 12:38:42 IST 2023

As a specialist in global security affairs, Rohan Gunaratna believes that international security and intelligence services should shift from counter-terrorism cooperation to collaboration. “The key is to build common databases, exchange personnel, conduct joint training and operations….” says Gunaratna, who has authored more than 30 books, including Sri Lanka’s Easter Sunday Massacre: Lessons for the International Community (2023). At a time when India and Canada are at loggerheads over the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, leader of the Khalistan Tiger Force, his advice for countries is to resolve their differences behind the scenes, rather than fight. Excerpts:

Q/ How has Canada earned the tag of an immigrant country?

A/ Canada is the world’s most favoured country for migrants…. Immigrants compensate for labour shortage, an ageing population and declining birth rate. They make up more than one-fifth of the Canadian population―more than 8 million of the 36 million Canadians―and non-permanent residents add almost another million. As per the 2021 census, more than half (4.3 million) had migrated from Asia, with India, the Philippines and China leading the way. About two million migrated from Europe, a million from North and South America and more than eight lakh from Africa (led by Morocco, Nigeria and Algeria). The recent immigrant population of over 1.3 million people shows a trend towards more immigrants of Asian and African descent. The immigration from the Americas, Europe and Oceania is on the decline.

Q/ There are concerns over inimical elements from various countries entering Canada over the years.

A/ Canada hosts people from around the world, including from conflict regions. The migrants mostly live in ethnic and religious enclaves. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has steadfastly expanded immigration, which has enhanced his popularity and electability. Under Trudeau, immigration has increased to four lakh new residents per year, and Canada plans to welcome five lakh permanent residents each year by 2025. About 40,000 asylum seekers entered Canada through irregular border crossings from the US alone in 2022. Like all governments, Canada is screening all the applicants. However, due to the sheer volume of applicants, a few thousand former terrorists and criminals have infiltrated. The Canadian intelligence and law enforcement agencies need to work in close collaboration with foreign counterparts to prevent acts of terrorism and crime.

Q/ What are Sri Lanka’s concerns over LTTE activities on Canadian soil?

A/ The LTTE clandestinely raised funds in Canada and procured weapons from the US, Ukraine and North Korea, which were then used to bomb the Central Bank in Colombo in 1996. The bombing killed 91 people and injured 1,400 people…. It is not too late to trace and prosecute the masterminds and fundraisers, but Canada and Sri Lanka should work together on this case to send a clear message that terrorism will not be tolerated. The largest Sri Lankan population outside the island is in Canada. The Sri Lankan Tamil community migrated to Canada in three stages: before, during and after war. Most migrants have become Canadian citizens and they lead respectable lives. A few hundred are supporting the LTTE in an attempt to revive the group. Over the years, the Sri Lankan government is working closely with Canada. Despite some issues, it is vital for Colombo and Ottawa to maintain cordial relations.

Q/ The 9/11 terror attack was a wake-up call for the United States. Do you think all countries need to recognise terrorism as a global threat?

A/ The 9/11 attack by Al Qaeda on the US soil demonstrated that terrorists can operate across borders and strike their enemies at will. The US mounted operations overseas to find, fix and finish their enemies. After 9/11, the US also created a new architecture to protect its homeland. Otherwise, the US would have suffered gravely. For instance, the department of homeland security spent billions of dollars to create fusion centres and shared intelligence [with other countries]. Unless governments learn and adapt to the new and emerging threats, their countries will continue to suffer.

Q/ What is the way forward?

A/ With the global reach of threat groups increasing, international security and intelligence services should shift from counter-terrorism cooperation to collaboration. The key is to build common databases, exchange personnel, conduct joint training and operations, and share information, resources, experience and expertise. Rather than fight, they should resolve their differences behind the scenes.

canada-pm-justin-trudeau-sacrifices-ties-with-india-to-save-his-sagging-political-career

Sat Sep 23 17:55:25 IST 2023

If only you knew the power of the dark side. Or so said Darth Vader to Luke Skywalker just before he outs Star Wars’ biggest twist―that he is Skywalker’s daddy. It is a lesson that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau seems to have taken from his favourite movie. Doing quite badly in opinion polls, Trudeau hopes that the power of the idea of Khalistan will power his revival.

Trudeau’s big statement von the floor of the Canadian parliament that “security agencies have been actively pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Government of India and the killing of a Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar’’ and the subsequent expulsion of an Indian diplomat have pushed the India-Canada relationship into permafrost. India has come out all guns blazing, calling the allegations absurd and summoning the Canadian high commissioner to South Block for a dressing down. India also announced the expulsion a Canadian diplomat.

“This is a very complex state of affairs, one that goes far beyond the Indian lens,’’ said Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Washington-based Wilson Center. “For Canada, there is a strong emphasis on rule of law, due process and freedom of speech. It means that Ottawa is not only unwilling to crack down on Sikh activism in Canada, but also that it will always condemn in the strongest terms the assassination of a Canadian citizen on its soil, no matter India’s contention that Nijjar was a terrorist.”

The expulsion of diplomats was only round one. Both countries have issued travel warnings for their citizens. “Government of India needs to take this matter with the utmost seriousness. We are doing that, we are not looking to provoke or escalate,” said Trudeau. The issue will continue to simmer, especially at the UN General Assembly session. A quarter century ago, Canada had registered a complaint against India over the nuclear tests. So, there is a history of using the UN as a platform to make a point.

On the Nijjar issue, no evidence has been shared so far, but Trudeau reached out to US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron. The episode could cast a shadow over India’s ties with countries such as the US, the UK, Australia and France―as all of them have expressed “concern’’ over Trudeau’s allegations. However, none of them would want to risk their ties with India, especially in the prevailing geopolitical context. “We are deeply concerned about the allegations referenced by Prime Minister Trudeau,’’ said Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the US National Security Council. “It is critical that Canada’s investigation proceed and the perpetrators be brought to justice.”

While Trudeau has not backed his charge with proof, he has counted on it taking away from India’s G20 success. It has come at a time when he is on the back foot domestically. Trudeau has been facing the toughest summer of his career yet. “Anyone but Trudeau is the mood in Canada,’’ said Munish Ohri, a Canadian businessman. The economy has not recovered from the blow dealt by the pandemic. “In the past two years, interest rates have jumped from 2.5 percent to 7 per cent,’’ he said. Those who survive on salaries are facing foreclosures.’’

Radio show host Jasbir Romana, too, pointed towards a political angle. “Trudeau has been lagging behind his opponent (Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre) by 10 per cent in latest opinion polls. His visit to India was botched up. So he has been on a spree pushing for more housing facilities and taking on grocery chain owners in a rude, un-Canadian manner.” The Nijjar episode, meanwhile, has ensured that the opposition has no choice, but to back him. And, for now, his numbers have started becoming better. “There have been no arrests,’’ said Harsh Pant of the Observer Research Foundation. “This is all about distraction. Trudeau has pushed the Conservatives into a corner. They have no choice but to back him as one cannot espouse another country’s interference in internal affairs.”

Trudeau’s father, Pierre, too, was notorious for his soft handling of Khalistani terrorists. When the Indira Gandhi government approached him in 1984 for the extradition of Khalistani terrorist Talwinder Singh Parmar who was accused of killing police officers in India, he refused to cooperate. Parmar was later implicated in the 1985 Kanishka aircraft bomb attack in which 329 people lost their lives. Trudeau Junior chose to accuse India on the floor of the parliament. “If you look at the way he did it,’’ said Pant, “it almost looks personal.” He said the US, the UK and Australia, too, faced the Khalistani protest issue, but they handled it differently. For instance, when the Indian consulate in San Francisco was targeted by Khalistani terrorists, Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, said his country was doing everything to ensure the safety of Indians with the help of law enforcement agencies.

The uneasiness regarding Canada’s handling of Khalistani extremism has been brewing for a while, but the Nijjar killing has made the situation worse. Trade talks between the two countries that were seemingly on track were suddenly called off on September 16. Earlier this year, Trudeau’s national security adviser Jody Thomas identified India as top source of foreign interference in Canada, along with Russia and Iran.

The challenge before both India and Canada is to keep the bilateral relationship going despite the animosity being at an all-time high. There is a lot at stake. Beyond the people-to-people connection between the two countries fuelled by the 1.8 million strong Indian community in Canada, there are also other ties. The Canadian pension funds have cumulatively invested around 55 billion dollars in India. The foreign direct investment from Canada now is around 4 billion dollars. The continuing tension could hurt business and economic ties. Said Kugelman, “Ominously, we are seeing long-standing tensions over Sikh issues steep into areas of relationship that withstood tensions.”

canadian-sikh-politician-gurmant-grewal-interview

Sat Sep 23 12:42:12 IST 2023

GURMANT GREWAL was a member of the Canadian parliament thrice and was the first Sikh to hold the position of the deputy house leader of the official opposition of Canada. Grewal and his wife, Neena, were the first couple to serve in the House of Commons of Canada at the same time. When India-Canada bilateral relationship hit rock bottom in 1998 following India’s nuclear tests, he served as a bridge between the two countries. In an exclusive interview with THE WEEK, Grewal speaks about the Nijjar murder controversy and its likely impact on India-Canada ties. Excerpts:

Q\ How do you look at the latest crisis?

A\ I hope we can move forward and address the issue. In 1998, when India conducted the nuclear tests, Canada complained to the United Nations. Diplomatic relations were broken and Canada imposed sanctions on India. After Stephen Harper was defeated in 2015, it has been a roller-coaster ride. I think the lacuna has been in communication, transparency and planning. The values of India and Canada are the same―democracy and freedom of expression. In Canada, the separatist side has to make their voice heard in a peaceful manner. The Quebec referendum in 1996-1997 was held in the same way. They are allowed to be heard, be it the Uyghurs or even the Khalistanis, if they do it in a peaceful manner. I believe a better communication channel is required. No country will like it if there is a killing on its soil. We don’t know the details, but we need transparency.

Q\ There are questions about how Nijjar was granted citizenship.

A\ In my opinion, once he became a Canadian citizen, his papers would have gone through the scrutiny of the process, and his background is irrelevant.

Q\ Prime Minister Trudeau’s ratings are low. Could the latest crisis be a political move, rather than a diplomatic one?

A\ Trudeau’s ratings are lower, but the official opposition party did not oppose his statement. They also said that the evidence should be made public.

Q\ Do you think this might affect trade ties?

A\ Both India and Canada said that trade negotiations should be concluded this year. But those are on a pause.

Q\ Canada has accused China of interfering in its internal affairs.

A\ In 1998, I was privy to documents on China’s interference. A committee has been formed to look at the interference of China with a new chairman and it is expected to start work soon. There are allegations against North Korea and Russia. I fear that they will investigate and include India, too, in the list.

india-g20-summit-declarations-success

Sat Sep 16 12:54:23 IST 2023

In the end, the success of a gathering is determined by an afterparty. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has ensured that the G20 summit in Delhi will have one. A virtual G20 summit will be held in November before the presidency is passed on to Brazil. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has already assured his presence. Meanwhile, Modi’s millet menu passed the G20 test at the specially curated summit lunch. And Akshata Murthy went back with a Banarasi stole. The gifts were customised to suit the sensibilities of the guests and to reflect the relations that India has with each country.

India’s presidency has changed the composition of the G20, opening the doors for Africa and its 1.4 billion people. “The expansion to include the African Union is quite momentous,’’ said former ambassador Rajiv Bhatia, who authored a report on India-Africa relations. By 2030, every fifth person on earth will be African, so the continent’s inclusion has come at an apt time. “The inclusion of the AU changes the dynamics of the room,’’ said Harsh Pant of the Observer Research Foundation. “It shows India’s ability to lead and to move from ideas to action.” It is a tangible win for Modi’s efforts. Despite Covid and the global economic slump diverting some attention from India’s efforts to woo Africa, it opened 18 new missions on the continent. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has made six trips to Africa just this year. And the efforts are all set to continue.

“From 2002, when India launched the Focus Africa Programme, the funds have grown from $2 billion to almost $100 billion,’’ said retired ambassador Gurjit Singh, who heads the CII task force on the Asia Africa Growth Corridor. India has moved on from providing lines of credit to African countries to a foreign direct investment model. The summit lauded the rescheduling of the debt burden of Zambia, Ethiopia and Ghana under the Common Framework for Debt Treatment, an initiative endorsed by the G20. “India has emerged as the leader of the Global South,’’ said Singh.

For Modi, the successful summit has turned out to be the perfect launch pad for the Lok Sabha elections. Even pollution stayed away, ensuring a blemish-free summit. From a diplomatic perspective, however, the biggest takeaway has been bringing the world on the same page on contentious issues. “On Ukraine, India forged a middle path,’’ said Bhatia. It was a Herculean task, which took more than 200 hours of negotiations. But India proved to be the glue that could bind together disparate opinions on the issue.

“India has become the interlocutor between G7 and the Global South,’’ said Singh. That was why there was nothing much about Russia in the joint statement; it was not an issue for the Global South. “It is this trilateral cooperation that we are witnessing. The new connectivity project between the Middle East, Europe and India is very much a result of this cooperation,” said Singh.

While G7 members may have wanted stronger language on Russia―evident from their news conferences on the sidelines―they did not want to be on the wrong side of history. The softer language, which refrained from condemning Russia, was significant, as it may signal a new thought process about the future course of the war. So far, the only country to criticise the declaration is Ukraine.

The collective assent to the Delhi Declaration is not only a display of team spirit―which India displayed in ample measure by joining hands with South Africa and Brazil―but also a celebration of carefully crafted bilateral relations India has with most countries, very much like the curated gifts that went back with each leader. “There is a new dynamic in play,’’ said Pant. “India has demonstrated, especially to China, that it has excellent relations with the west, something which Beijing can only dream of.”

At a time when China had counted on the absence of President Xi Jinping at the summit being interpreted as a major snub to Delhi, producing a joint statement was a major success. It has made Beijing uneasy, especially with a Belt and Road Initiative summit coming up. Italy has already conveyed to China that it wants out. Meanwhile, the India-Middle East-Europe project has demonstrated India’s ability to bring together reluctant friends like Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman along with European leaders and US President Joe Biden. “India is venturing into the Middle East where China enjoys good relations,’’ said Pant. “It is doing so using America’s heft and by leveraging partnerships.”

The Delhi Declaration is quite a defining moment for G20’s future and it shows India’s influence on a range of issues including digital public infrastructure and climate action. “No conversation without India can be possible on DPI or climate change,’’ said Syed Akbaruddin, India’s former permanent representative to the UN. The need for further reform in the global governance structure is very much at the heart of the declaration.

“It is natural law that persons and institutions that do not adapt to change lose their relevance. With an open mind, we have to consider why many regional forums have emerged in recent years and are proving to be effective,” said Modi at the closing session of the summit. “But the number of permanent members in the UN Security Council stays the same. The world has changed in every respect. Whether it is transport, communication, health or education, every sector has undergone a transformation,” said Modi. “These new realities should be reflected in our new global structure.”

inclusion-of-african-union-in-g20-interview-vincent-magwenya

Sat Sep 16 12:50:27 IST 2023

THE G20 SUMMIT has opened the doors for a continent with the inclusion of the African Union. The move has tilted the balance in favour of the Global South. In an exclusive interview with THE WEEK, Vincent Magwenya, spokesperson for the president of South Africa, speaks about the distortion that has been corrected with the AU’s inclusion and how it augurs well for the world. Edited excerpts:

Q/ How do you view the inclusion of the African Union in the G20?

A/ South Africa has been advocating for the inclusion of Africa in G20. Beyond that, we have called for the inclusion of the Global South in various processes that seek to reshape the global agenda on development. It was always a myth that such platforms could exclude a continent of more than 1.4 billion people. That distortion has been corrected. It augurs well, in terms of solidarity and in terms of a collective approach. We would like to see the resolution of the many challenges that the world confronts. From a security point of view and from a climate change mitigation point of view, there is going to be greater solidarity and collaboration.

Q/ With the inclusion of the African Union, it seems that the conversation is being really shaped by the emerging economies.

A/ The Indian government and Prime Minister Modi have done fantastically well in ensuring that this summit is focused on the inclusion of the Global South. Going on from here, it is going to be very difficult for any multilateral platform to ignore the Global South. You are going to see an accelerated push towards the reforms that we have been seeking in other multilateral forums, like the UN Security Council. We will be looking for a more equitable share of resources. What this summit has done is to give more impetus to that advocacy.

Q/ There seems to be a perception that South Africa is caught between India and China.

A/ We certainly do not feel that we are caught between India and China. We have seen a great deal of cooperation between India and China, especially within BRICS. When President Cyril Ramaphosa was engaged with various BRICS members, he sought consensus on the shape and format of the BRICS summit. He also sought consensus in terms of the expansion of BRICS. Our experience is different from the commonly espoused position of rivalry between these countries.

Q/ You talked about restructuring global financial institutions. How difficult is that going to be? Also, your views on climate justice?

A/ It is a process that is going to take time. But it is a process that is necessary and cannot be wished away. We had the first step at this G20 summit with respect to the inclusion of the African continent. What is going to follow from here on is an acceleration of the reforms that we are seeking.

With respect to the Just Transition (greening the economy in a fair and inclusive manner), in South Africa we have reached a consensus with all areas of society in terms of our roadmap to decarbonise our economy. The focus is going to be how we fund that process. Funding has been pledged by developed countries. Let us see those commitments.

Q/ How does South Africa look at India’s presidency?

A/ India has sought to define this summit around the theme of inclusivity. That has been well achieved. The signature moment is obviously the inclusion of the African Union, but from the onset we were fully aligned with India’s vision.

g20-plans-to-triple-renewable-energy-capacity-by-2030

Sat Sep 16 12:46:43 IST 2023

BUYING A CAR these days is not just about the brand or the mileage. It is increasingly about which variant to buy―petrol, diesel, CNG or the latest craze, the electric and the hybrid models. The world has realised that opting for an electric vehicle is yet another step forward in the fight against climate change, which was set out eight years ago at the Paris agreement.

Climate change and global warming are clearly at a tipping point. Unrelenting floods in Asia, sweltering heat in Europe, terrible drought in the Horn of Africa and wildfires in North America are all harbingers of the deadly reality. The 2015 Paris plan is to keep the rise in global temperature below at least 2 degrees centigrade, the ideal level being 1.5 degrees. The preferred method to achieve this goal is a structural shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. That costs money.

A recent report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says the transition requires at least $4.4 trillion annually. It is here that the G20 countries―which together account for more than 85 per cent of the global GDP―have to play a pivotal role. Mapping out an ambitious goal “to triple renewable energy capacity globally… by 2030”, a hallmark of the G20 Delhi declaration, the emphasis is on reforming the global financial institutions and the debt structuring system. The aim is to make funds affordable and available in a fair manner so that the developing nations can meet their climate obligations. To put up a robust fight against climate change is, therefore, also about the availability of low-cost financing to combat the rising heat and deteriorating climatic conditions, particularly against the backdrop of rising interest rates.

Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, says India alone will require over $10 trillion in investments to reach net zero by 2070. “The New Delhi declaration supports the imperative of securing trillions of dollars to benefit the billions of people in the Global South through the Green Development Pact. Our research shows that the role of multilateral development banks is crucial, and the declaration highlights blended finance and risk-sharing mechanisms,” he says. “If we can devise methods to consolidate projects and narrow the gap between the perceived and actual risk of investing in emerging markets, we can reduce the cost of financing and encourage private investment in projects that focus on mitigation, as well as those that do so on adaptation efforts.”

The efforts to use renewable and sustainable forms of energy are being taken forward on multiple fronts. With solar energy systems and onshore wind technologies having achieved considerable maturity and competitiveness, newer verticals like offshore wind, hydrogen electrolysers (an apparatus that produces hydrogen) and energy storage are emerging, especially in the developing world. Meeting the high costs is a challenge. The greater usage of these new verticals is essential to move to the next phase of energy transition.

Bhupinder S. Bhalla, secretary, ministry of new and renewable energy, says access to low-cost capital will play a significant role in financing energy transition projects for G20 countries and beyond, while collaboration between public and private sectors will help catalyse institutional capital flows. “To achieve the 1.5 degrees centigrade goal of the Paris agreement, the overall share of renewable energy in the primary energy mix will need to rise to as much as 75 per cent, requiring an annual investment of over $4.4 trillion. To enable an energy system aligned with this target, investment in energy transition technologies needs to scale up considerably, complemented by a simultaneous redirection of investment away from fossil fuels.”

In the Indian case, low-cost climate finances make for a more compelling argument. Already the world’s third-biggest energy guzzler, India will see its energy requirements going up considerably. The International Energy Agency says India’s demand will see the highest jump in the next two decades.

The G20 declaration of September 9 called for “an ambitious, transparent and trackable New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) of climate finance in 2024, from a floor of $100 billion a year, taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries in fulfilling the objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the implementation of the Paris agreement”.

The good news is that the promise of the developed countries of mobilising $100 billion a year for the developing countries may be met for the first time this year itself. But there are also questions. Vibhuti Garg, director, South Asia, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, says there is no further commitment on increasing the availability of finance to developing countries beyond $100 billion. “The net zero target needs much higher investment and if that commitment is not enhanced, it will be difficult for countries in the Global South to achieve their climate goals.” She says the role of blended finance and multilateral development banks needs to be further fleshed out and also the issues on green taxonomy.

The Delhi declaration underlined the vital role of private climate finance in supplementing public funds and encouraging the development of financing mechanisms. According to the IRENA report, the bulk of the investment will need to focus on renewable energy, energy efficiency, electrification and enabling infrastructure. It says capital needs to be mobilised urgently from domestic and international resources of the private sector.

To be fair, India has not done badly. The IRENA report says India’s renewable energy sector has seen unprecedented growth. The country ranked third on the Renewable Energy Attractiveness Index in 2021, and its solar and wind power base is the fourth largest in the world. “The country’s capacities are some of the fastest growing among the top five countries promoting and advancing renewable energy,” says the report. That is a great achievement, but there is still a long way to go.

yevgeny-prigozhin-s-wagner-empire-may-cease-to-exist

Sat Sep 02 13:02:57 IST 2023

Makeshift memorials for Yevgeny Prigozhin and commanders of his private army, Wagner PMC, mushroomed across Russia much before they were officially confirmed dead in a jet crash on August 23. From Rostov and Belgorod bordering Ukraine, to Tobolsk and Perm in Ural and Krasnoyarsk in Siberia, people of all ages came to lay flowers and light candles.

In Saint Petersburg, the birthplace of both Prigozhin and President Vladimir Putin, the memorial was in front of the former Wagner PMC office at Zolnaya Street. The makeshift memorial was filled with flowers and flags, icons and Wagner stripes and even soft toys. “He was the real patriot, he did a lot for Russia,” a man in his 40s said as he placed fresh carnations. For youngsters, the memorial quickly turned into a selfie point.

Prigozhin was among the 10 people on board the Embraer 135BJ Legacy 600 business jet flying from Moscow to Saint Petersburg that crashed over the Tyumen region. Several Wagner commanders died in the crash, including Dmitry ‘Wagner’ Utkin―whose call sign is believed to have given the private military company its name―and Valery Chekalov, Sergei Propustin, Alexander Totmin and Yevgeny Makaryan.

Commenting on Prigozhin’s demise even before it was officially confirmed by Russia’s investigative committee on August 27 (after DNA tests), Putin noted that the Wagner chief was “a man with a complicated life path” who “made serious mistakes” but also “delivered results”.

Many officials echoed Putin’s assessment of Prigozhin’s personality. Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic in southern Russia, said achievements “cannot be denied”. But he was quick to underline that “in recent times” the Wagner chief “failed to see or refused to see the greater picture”. Kadyrov claimed he urged Prigozhin to drop personal ambition. “But that’s how he was, Prigozhin, with his iron character and desire to get his way right here and now,” he said.

Leonid Slutsky, an MP from the Russian nationalist LDPR party, who had lashed out at Prigozhin during the Wagner mutiny, calling him a “traitor” and suggesting he was being used by the west to weaken Russia, said, commenting on the deadly plane crash, that while their views differed at the time, the head of Wagner “did a lot to achieve the goals of the special military operation.”

While the Kremlin denied any involvement in Prigozhin’s death and pro-Kremlin political commentators suggested the hand of Ukraine’s intelligence, many in Russia did see it as “revenge” for the rebellion. But, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko said: “I know Putin. He is a calculating, very calm and even slow person, making decisions on other, less complex issues. Therefore, I cannot imagine that Putin did it, that Putin is to blame. It’s too rough, unprofessional work.” He also noted that he had received information about a possible attempt to assassinate Prigozhin. He passed this information to Putin and FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov. Later, said Lukashenko, Prigozhin told him he had received the information from Putin.

Prigozhin also told Lukashenko he would die a hero.

The fact that Prigozhin was not punished, but rather spared and only “exiled” to Belarus, showed he was “dear to many”, political commentator Alexander Morozov told Prague-based Current Times, which is run by a media organisation funded by the US government. As political analyst and senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Tatyana Stanovaya pointed out, people close to the Kremlin believed people like Prigozhin did not deserve such death. At the same time, she said, Putin no longer needed Prigozhin.

“Wagner’s infrastructure in African countries and Syria can either be transferred under the control of state structures, or it can find a new loyal boss,” she said. “And the tools of foreign information campaigns and sabotage (such as Prigozhin’s troll factory) have long been actively mastered by the Russian special services.” She noted that the conservative section of society (and power elites) saw Prigozhin’s death a well-deserved outcome.

Prigozhin had no illusions. Ksenia Sobchak, TV celebrity-turned-journalist and daughter of Putin’s mentor and former Saint Petersburg mayor Anatoly Sobchak, revealed shortly after the plane crash that she had requested Prigozhin for an interview days before the crash. In what she claimed was a screenshot of their correspondence, he responded that now was not the time as he would get “arrested”, and added that if he had agreed to give the interview when she had requested him earlier, he would have been “finished”.

After the rebellion, Prigozhin’s influence on domestic policy was rigorously suppressed. Earlier in 2022, there were talks of Prigozhin starting his own political party or gaining partial control of the A Just Russia party. Following the uprising, the rumours ceased abruptly. A larger network of organisations, activists and media personalities, including some foreign-language bloggers, that were indirectly associated with Prigozhin and his media empire―Patriot Media―reduced or refocused their activities. In general, those associated with Prigozhin were advised to be cautious as they would not be spared, unlike the Wagner chief and his fighters.

The big task for the Kremlin now is how to deal with Wagner. A few days after Prigozhin was confirmed dead, Andrey Kartapolov, head of a parliamentary defence committee, said legislators would continue to work on a bill regarding the status of PMCs in Russia. He added that work was ongoing and it was too early to say anything concrete.

The push to regulate PMCs had been criticised by Prigozhin, who said in March that such a law was not needed and the PMCs had been “performing tasks” in Africa, Asia and other countries “according to the [local] laws”. This remark would be interpreted differently in the context of the mutiny he staged months later. And the renewed push to adopt the law regarding PMCs was made immediately after the rebellion was called off.

According to a popular political channel Ne Zygar, a series of focus groups in three metropolises after Prigozhin’s death showed that opinions on the Wagner Group and the concept of PMCs were divided. For many, the concept of PMCs is seen as relevant, but, according to the study’s participants, they should not engage in direct confrontation with the ministry of defence. Interestingly, the same poll showed that there were quite a few supporters of the theory that the plane crash was staged and Prigozhin had “stepped out of the game” and gone underground, perhaps to Africa.

Western media has claimed that Russia could lose its grip on Africa after Prigozhin’s death. The reality might be different. Russia recently hosted a grand Russia-Africa summit, attended by delegations from 49 countries. Putin spent three days interacting formally and informally with African leaders, underscoring Moscow’s intent to play a much bigger role on the continent as the erstwhile Soviet Union did. While Prigozhin reportedly made a brief appearance on the sidelines, with a photo of him shaking hands with an African official doing the rounds on social media, he was not seen at the main venue.

Yevgeny Minchenko, the president of the International Institute of Political Expertise, said it will be difficult to replace Prigozhin in Africa. “In international relations, a lot is based on personal chemistry and communication. If an outsider comes now, he may not be effective.”

But Andrey Zaharov, Russian investigative journalist and former BBC correspondent who wrote extensively on Prigozhin’s “troll factory” and the US elections (he is among many journalists and activists labelled foreign agents by Kremlin), claimed the process of squeezing Prigozhin out from Africa had started before his death. Russia had been trying to hamper Wagner’s operations, for example, convincing local authorities not to allow their planes to land, Zaharov shared on his Telegram channel. He said, citing sources, that this was happening despite Putin having personally assured Prigozhin that he could continue “dealings” in Africa and Syria.

On August 22, a Russian delegation headed by Deputy Minister of Defence Colonel General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov arrived in Libya for the first official visit by a Russian military delegation to the African country. Some media reports suggested Yevkurov visited Syria and several African countries where Wagner had been operating.

The complicated but charismatic Prigozhin was buried at Porokhovskoe cemetery in Saint Petersburg. It is certain that his death would not influence the 2024 presidential polls. A section of society is largely supporting Russia’s actions in Ukraine and will continue to do so as long as the conflict burns. For them, Russia emerging victorious is the priority―no matter who moves the pieces.

first-iit-campus-outside-india-in-zanzibar

Sat Aug 19 11:57:21 IST 2023

THE ISLAND OF ZANZIBAR, known for its spices and azure beaches, has been on the map of Indian, Persian and Arab sailors since first century CE. Zanzibar was a base for voyages between the Middle East, India and Africa. With its historic centre, Stone Town, Zanzibar is best described as an East African coastal trading town, influenced by an eclectic mix of disparate elements of African, Arab, Indian and European cultures. These have truly made it an Indo-Arab-African city that, while embracing the new, subtly mixed it with elements of the old. With its cobbled streets, chaotic traffic, an overhanging smell of spices and sights at every turn, this UNESCO heritage city has a soul of its own. Zanzibari doors are a typical example―decorated with knobs, each with their own style, whether Arab, African or Gujarati.

Originally inhabited by the Bantu speaking people, Zanzibar saw Swahili merchants starting operations as agents for traders from India and the Arab world from ninth century CE. Portuguese explorer Vasco da Gama’s visit in 1498 marked the arrival of European influence. Zanzibar became part of the Portuguese empire in 1503 and remained so for almost two centuries. The Portuguese presence was relatively limited, leaving administration in the hands of pre-existing local leaders and power structures. In 1698, Zanzibar came under the influence of the Sultanate of Oman. The sultans controlled a large portion of the Swahili coast known as Zanj, which included Mombasa and Dar es Salaam.

From 1886, European powers, especially Great Britain and Germany, started to move in. The control of Zanzibar passed into the hands of the British empire in 1890. This transfer was formalised by the 1890 Heligoland–Zanzibar Treaty, in which Germany recognised the islands of Zanzibar and Pemba as a British protectorate, while Germany got the archipelago of Heligoland, situated in the North Sea. The protectorate was terminated by the United Kingdom in December 1963, making Zanzibar a constitutional monarchy within the commonwealth, under the sultan. Within a month came the Zanzibar Revolution that deposed the sultan. In April 1964, the republic merged with mainland Tanganyika, creating the United Republic of Tanzania, within which Zanzibar now remains an autonomous region.

Till the 19th century, Zanzibar was the last outpost of the known world before the vast ‘Terra Incognita’ of Africa started. It, therefore, continued to be the trading post for the riches of Africa–ivory, gold, and more infamously, slaves. The last permanent slave market of East Africa was in Zanzibar, until it was closed in 1873. At the centre of Stone Town stands a church, at the site of the biggest slave market of Zanzibar. The construction of the cathedral was, in fact, intended to mark the end of slavery. The altar is said to be at the exact place where the main “whipping post” of the market used to be. Outside the cathedral is an artwork: life-size statues of slaves bearing original chains―a reminder of the ignominious past.

Zanzibar is 99 per cent Islamic. Today, there are about 50 Hindu families living there, almost all from Gujarat. The island is home to three temples. The Ram temple established in 1959 is the main one. There is also the Arya Samaj temple established in 1906 and the Shree Kuttchi Swetamber Jain temple, which is said to be the first Jain temple outside India.

One of the main attractions of Zanzibar is the Freddie Mercury House. The parents of the British singer and songwriter―born Farrokh Bulsara in Stone Town in 1946―were Parsis from Bulsar (now Valsad) in Gujarat. The family had moved there for work; Zanzibar being a British protectorate, Farrokh was born a British Indian subject. When he was eight, Farrokh was sent to study at St. Peter’s School at Panchgani, Maharashtra. It was at St. Peter’s that he began to call himself “Freddie”. In February 1963, he returned to Zanzibar and the family fled to England after the revolution in 1964. In 1970, he formed the Rock band called “Queen” and the rest is history, with him delivering hits such as “We will Rock You”, and recording sales of over 300 million records.

The visit of External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar to Zanzibar in July saw the signing of the MoU for setting up the first IIT outside India. It was signed in the presence of the president of Zanzibar and was welcomed by everyone. The nomination of Preeti Aghalayam, from IIT Madras, as the founding director of IIT Zanzibar also shattered a glass ceiling, as she would be the first ever female director of an IIT. Classes are likely to start by October, and the campus is expected to become the hub for higher education in critical streams of science, engineering and innovation, not just for Tanzania, but for the entire continent of Africa.

The institute, designed to be pan-African in nature, corresponds to the vision laid out by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his address to the Ugandan parliament in July 2018, where he outlined 10 principles for India’s engagement with Africa. “We will build as much local capacity and create as much local opportunities as possible,” said Modi. “We will harness India’s experience [to] extend education and health [and] spread digital literacy.” The National Education Policy 2020 facilitated the export of ‘Brand IIT’ outside India and it now offers the potential to extend Indian soft power across Africa, while providing the much-needed capacity building for African countries. Over 25,000 African students study in various universities across India, but this will be first time that an Indian institute will cater to the requirements of Africa on African soil itself, a strong reflection of India’s commitment to the Global South. The setting up of the IIT is truly an ode to the spirit of the sailors and traders who went across the Indian Ocean to trade and spread the warmth of Indian knowledge and culture in that part of the world.

The author is joint secretary, ministry of external affairs. Views are personal.

pakistan-political-crisis-imran-khan-future-situation-analysis

Sat Aug 12 18:13:23 IST 2023

Pakistan is entering yet another phase of political uncertainty with former prime minister Imran Khan sent to prison and the National Assembly completing its term. Under the advice of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, President Arif Alvi dissolved the National Assembly on August 9. Senator Anwaar-ul-haq Kakar was named as caretaker prime minister on August 12.

The Sindh and the Balochistan provincial assemblies were also dissolved. Provincial assemblies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were dissolved by their Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) governments, in January. Elections have not taken place in these two provinces, despite the constitutional requirement to hold elections within 90 days and the directives of the supreme court. Many observers are, therefore, sceptical whether national elections will take place on time or not.

The next elections will determine the political future of the PTI and its chairman, Imran Khan. Imran was arrested on August 5 after an Islamabad court found him guilty of “corrupt practices” in the Toshakhana (state gifts) case. He was sentenced to three years in jail and a fine of one lakh rupees and has been barred from politics for five years. The court said Imran “cheated while providing information about gifts he obtained from Toshakhana which later proved to be false and inaccurate” and that his “dishonesty has been established beyond doubt”.

Political analyst Asma Shirazi said Imran's political future was on the line after his conviction. “His party has voters and supporters on the ground, but the PTI itself is in disarray as some leaders left after the May 9 attacks (riots by PTI workers targeting government and military establishments following Imran's arrest) and some are in hiding. Imran does not have much trust in his own party and he has kept decision-making to himself while in jail,” said Shirazi. One of Imran's lawyers said on a talk show that decisions taken by the PTI core committee would be communicated to him through his lawyer and would be subject to his approval. “The PTI's future does not look too bright because of technical issues,” said Shirazi. “The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) has issues caused by rising inflation, but the PTI is facing its own problems.”

Complicating matters further is the decision by the Shehbaz Sharif government to conduct the next general elections on the basis of the 2023 census. Once a census is approved, it is mandatory for the election commission to carry out a delimitation exercise to determine new electoral districts. Shirazi said holding elections under the new census was seen as an excuse to delay the process and that it was unlikely that the polls would take place this year. “From delimitation and other things, it will take a few more months. But it is also important that the next general elections are held before the senate elections in March 2024. How long will the caretaker setup stay is a question that looms large over Pakistan's political horizon, but it is quite clear that we cannot see elections at least till March.”

Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, said that normally, new census results would require a constitutional amendment and a delimitation of constituencies. But he said the provincial share of population in the 2023 census was the same as it was in the previous census, so a constitutional amendment was not needed. “My view is that the results of the new census may not require fresh delimitation and therefore no extension in the date of election beyond 90 days be needed. This, however, has to be decided by the election commission and conclusively by the supreme court, if the election commission's decision is challenged,” said Mehboob.

The PTI is suspicious about the government's manoeuvres. Farrukh Habib, the party's west Punjab unit president, told THE WEEK that under the constitution, it was mandatory to hold the elections within 90 days of the dissolution of the National Assembly. “Unfortunately, the government did not implement the supreme court’s verdict in this regard when it came to the Punjab and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies. The court had made it clear that it was the election commission’s duty to hold elections, but it failed to do so. And now, in the name of holding elections as per the 2023 census, delaying the elections will be mala fide.” Habib said the issue would go to the supreme court if the elections were delayed. “We will see whether the next chief justice (Qazi Faez Isa) will uphold the constitution and rule of law. Delaying elections has no constitutional basis. It will only lead to more uncertainty and will worsen the economic crisis. The people of Pakistan must be allowed to exercise their right to vote and their mandate should be respected.”

Habib also spoke in detail about Imran’s conviction and disqualification. He said the whole process started in April 2022 with the vote of no confidence against him. “There are around 200 cases against Imran. He survived an assassination attempt in Wazirabad last year, but the investigation was sabotaged. His house was attacked by the state. The way the judge sentenced him is for everyone to see—Imran did not get a fair trial. Justice died a silent death during his trial as he was not even allowed to present his witnesses.”

Habib said the entire process was “pre-planned” under what Imran calls the “London plan”. PTI supporters say a plan was hatched by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif in London to keep Imran out of politics. The party has already challenged Imran's sentence in the Islamabad high court. “Imran will contest the next elections,” said Habib. He highlighted the fact that after Imran's arrest, a relatively unknown candidate from the PTI won a Peshawar local government byelection, and that, too, from a seat the party had lost in the past. “Whoever gets PTI tickets will win the elections. Imran's voters are with him and they stand by his vision and ideology. The commitment of the people of Pakistan to Imran and his commitment to them stand intact.”

The PML(N), too, said that it wanted elections to be held on time. Senior leader Ahsan Iqbal told THE WEEK that the decision to hold the next general elections under the 2023 census was taken by Imran when he was in power. “The constitution requires new delimitation after a census is notified. The election commission has to give the election schedule. We hope that the elections will be held at the earliest, according to the constitution,” said Iqbal. He said the PML(N) saved the Pakistani economy from bankruptcy and also revived key development projects. “People know that inflation is caused by the conditions of the IMF agreement signed by the PTI government.” He added that Nawaz Sharif would return to Pakistan once the election schedule was announced.

Shirazi said Nawaz would lead the PML(N)'s campaign. “Nawaz will not return before the announcement of the elections. It may well happen in December once it is clear that elections will be held.”

The caretaker government which will run the show till the elections are held cannot conclude new agreements or contracts, but can only exercise its powers related to ongoing projects. Mehboob said the outgoing government had tried to grant much wider powers for the caretaker government by amending the Elections Act, but was forced to abandon the plan following widespread opposition in parliament. “The passed amendment has a narrow scope and the caretaker government will be able to make decisions only in the case of ongoing projects,” he said. “The scope is limited and it will not impact the election in any meaningful way

ukraine-peace-talks-in-saudi-arabia

Sat Aug 12 12:41:47 IST 2023

THERE IS A RAGING debate whether the August 5-6 meeting of national security advisers and top security and foreign policy officials from several countries to discuss a peaceful regulation of the war in Ukraine can be called a peace summit at all, because one of the parties in the war was not present. Russia was not included, and it called the summit “a doomed attempt to woo the global south”.

Nevertheless, representatives of the 42 countries which gathered in Jeddah discussed peace and only peace, neither military aspects of the war, nor supply of weapons, or sanctions. Prospects of Russia and its problems were not discussed. The discussion was creative, constructive and consensus-oriented around Ukraine, as mentioned by the Ukrainians.

The Ukrainian delegation in Jeddah was led by Andriy Yermak, presidential adviser and head of the president’s office. The delegation included, among others, two deputy heads of office, senior diplomats Andriy Sibyha and Ihor Zhovkva as well as Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mykola Tochytskiy.

There are important takeaways from the meeting, a smooth shift towards the positive since the June 24 meeting in Copenhagen. Although the attempts are nascent, gradually, Ukraine shapes the peace it wants, somewhat similar to its careful and steady military counteroffensive regaining occupied territories.

The basis of discussion in Jeddah remained unchanged―it is the 10-point peace formula presented by President Volodymyr Zelensky at the G20 Summit in 2022 in Bali. That, perhaps, is the first and most important point. All other peace proposals, track 1.5 or track 2 initiatives, advanced by other states or groups, therefore, have to fit into this Ukrainian peace formula. Jeddah proved that Copenhagen could not be nipped in the bud.

The second significant takeaway is that all participating countries without exception spoke in favour of honouring the UN Charter, the territorial integrity and sovereignty of states. This includes four of the BRICS nations―Brazil, China, India, and South Africa―as well as many other states of Asia, Africa and Latin America. India was represented by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval. Notably, the level was higher than in Copenhagen, where Sanjay Verma, secretary (west) of the ministry of external affairs took part.

In spite of the fact that many countries are yet to openly condemn Russian aggression and the invasion of Ukraine, all agreed to the withdrawal of Russian forces from the territory of Ukraine and restoration of its internationally recognised borders. This is what the Ukrainians say about the Jeddah summit being a “huge blow to Russia”. Russian plans for peace negotiations, acknowledging the annexed territories, with the Kremlin reiterating that Russia will “keep those regions, which have been included into the constitution of Russia”, thus become a non-starter. Any idea of annexation, or frozen conflict, is overruled.

The summit’s success is also due to the fact that the philosophy behind the 10-point peace formula champions the cause of global multilateralism, with abundant references to UN resolutions and documents. It starts with issues that affect all countries, all aspects of life, civil or military, and also those issues that are beyond dispute and disagreement―radiation and nuclear safety and food security. Then comes energy security, an important component of climate change, also a global issue.

Moving from the generic to specific, from the fourth to tenth points, we can read about the release of prisoners and deported persons, restoration of territorial integrity, withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities, accountability and restoration of justice, including reparation, ecological safety. The ninth and tenth points deal with preventing escalation and repetition of aggression and confirmation of the end of war by a peace conference and signing of an international agreement.

The steps ahead will be on a three-level format: apart from communication at the NSA level, meetings at the ambassadorial level will be held in Kyiv in the parliament within a month or two, where almost 60 ambassadors are expected to take part. Improving the peace formula, not changing it, is the ultimate aim, enriching it with inputs from various countries. The third and highest level will be the convening of a summit on the heads of state level. The agenda for the summit and a possible document to be adopted are being agreed upon now.

Working groups on each of the 10 points of the peace plan, to be chaired or co-chaired by interested countries, is also another dimension of the work. Specific countries were not mentioned, although these issues were the focus of more than 30 bilateral meetings that the Ukrainian delegation had in two days in Jeddah. On the table of such meetings are the bilateral security guarantee treaties that Ukraine wants to conclude, contours of which are yet to be defined. In Yermak’s words, “such security guarantees are like anti air missile defense systems against future world wars”.

Vague and ambiguous as it may seem, the Jeddah summit did not produce any concluding document. Many countries also prefer to be observers and not be bound by obligations. However, in reality, adopting a document just for the sake of it yields no result. In that sense the absence of a document at this stage provides all nations with the maximum level of flexibility and diplomatic leverage to act in their national interest in the future. Who does not know, absence of official documents or use of non-papers are sometimes more important in diplomacy.

Russian aggression has run into the national interests of many countries and has hit hard their national pride. Recently, the world saw how the offer of free grains to African nations by President Vladimir Putin during the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, was politely rejected by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa. African nations are wary of the presence of Wagner mercenaries, and the strings of instability of coups on the continent. Smaller states are worried about being annexed by more powerful states.

Unprecedented diplomatic intensity in all capitals and heightened realisation by all nations of the need for protecting the fundamental principles of interdependence and peaceful coexistence are the results reinforced by Jeddah, which, by the way, is a twin city of Ukraine’s Odessa, where port infrastructure was badly hit by Russian missiles. Yermak remarked that the summit in Jeddah will enter history as a “rehearsal of a future world, which has no place for stone-age aggression”.

us-india-bilateral-relations-modi-biden

Sat Jul 01 16:54:10 IST 2023

Jawaharlal Nehru’s name may have been dropped from the Teen Murti House Museum and Library by the Union government, but during his recent visit to the US and Egypt, it was perhaps not easy for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to steer clear of Nehru’s looming presence. Nehru was one of the founders of the Non-Alignment Movement―the cornerstone of Indian foreign policy for decades―along with Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser. And the legacy still endures.

In Washington, before the guests at the state dinner hosted in Modi’s honour tasted the marinated millet, the US Marine band played ‘Ae mere watan ke logon’―evoking memories of the 1962 Sino-Indian war when president John F. Kennedy helped India, even without a formal alliance.

Although the India-US honeymoon under Nehru lasted just a short while, Kennedy became a hero in India as the US shared crucial aerial photographs which were key to India’s war efforts, just like intelligence was shared in 2020 when violence erupted in the Galwan Valley. Kennedy also broke protocol and greeted Nehru in his plane when he arrived for a visit in 1961.

As Modi nibbled samosas with Vice President Kamala Harris, the soundtrack had moved to “There’s no mountain high enough... to keep me from getting to you’’, symbolising how far the relationship has come over the years. Modi’s state visit has formalised the possibility of joint defence production between the two countries, taking the partnership to the next level. The comfort level on display was possible because the relationship has been over 30 years in the making, starting with the end of the Cold War and blossoming further with the civil nuclear deal, through the tenures of multiple presidents and prime ministers.

“Every Indian prime minister and American president has taken our relationship further,’’ said Modi, addressing the joint session of the US Congress. “But our generation has the honour of taking it to greater heights. I agree with President Biden that this is a defining partnership of this century because it serves a larger purpose. Democracy, demography and destiny give us that purpose.”

Apart from Lal Bahadur Shastri, Charan Singh, V.P. Singh, H.D. Deve Gowda and Chandra Shekhar―all other Indian prime ministers have visited the US. Seven American presidents―Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump―have visited India. The relationship started to flourish from the time of George H.W. Bush as he presided over the end of the Cold War. Under incumbent President Joe Biden, it has become one of the most important bilateral partnerships for the US.

“The biggest takeaway is that this relationship has become a truly strategic partnership,’’ said Michael Kugelman, Asia Program deputy director at the Washington-based think tank, Wilson Center. “It is not an alliance, but it is not far from one. It is quite clear that the relationship is multifaceted, with many different areas of cooperation, not just security, and plenty of tracks separate from China and even geopolitics. There is a lot of trust and goodwill, a far cry from the difficult days of the 1970s and 1980s. And, long-time sticking points―trade tensions, hesitation about tech transfers, even the Russia issue―are starting to melt away. We are seeing the emergence of a full-fledged long-term partnership, something that certainly will not please Beijing and will ensure enduring China-India tensions.’’

While Modi may enjoy the strategic hug from Biden, despite the unease within the administration over human rights and India’s stand on Russia, the credit for the first step in improving ties goes to P.V. Narasimha Rao. It was Rao who pushed the Indo-US relationship towards the “destiny’’ that Modi refers to. His meeting with Bush Sr on January 31, 1992, at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York, broke the ice between the two leading democracies. Rao realised that the Cold War was history and the US was the winner. The winds of change were blowing through Gorky Park and the Soviet dream was over. Bush and Rao took the opportunity and started talking, and they did not leave out even the most controversial topic that troubled bilateral relations―India’s nuclear ambitions.

Rao was aware of the allure of the Indian market and signalled that he was liberalising the economy. He lifted the ban on foreign companies setting up shop in India. Rao came calling again two years later. Bill Clinton, a Democrat, was in power, but, by then, a bipartisan consensus has started emerging in the US about the need for robust ties with India. “Suddenly, all my cabinet members want to visit India,” Clinton told Rao. When the two met at the Oval Office, there was some tension in the air. Rao reassured Clinton by saying that democracy was the future, which gave India and the US a common ground. He said it could change the world and spur economic growth and cooperation.

“If you look at the Indo-US strategic saga, Rao was the one who broke the ice,’’ said Rakesh Sood, a retired diplomat who saw firsthand the change in bilateral ties over the decades. “In 1992, the dialogue on nuclear issues began at the level of joint secretary, but it went through several ups and downs.”

But India’s nuclear tests of 1998 under Atal Bihari Vajpayee came as a major roadblock in bilateral ties as the US imposed sanctions against India. Yet, Vajpayee was able to convince the US about ending the freeze and returning to the negotiating table. Sood spoke about how Vajpayee sent his trusted aide Jaswant Singh to talk to deputy secretary of state Strobe Talbot. “Those were some of the most intensive, inclusive and productive talks,’’ he said. “There were 18 rounds of talks in 24 months. It was inconclusive because we signed no agreement, but it was most productive as it changed the perspective on nuclear issues and security between the two countries.”

The task was immense. The Pakistani lobby was still very strong in Washington. Talbot himself had made it clear that the sanctions would stay unless India signed the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Yet, Jaswant prevailed. He made a passionate and convincing defence of India’s nuclear ambitions―peaceful, and very much at the heart of its strategic autonomy―that helped India emerge out of its isolation.

On July 18, 2005, it was clear that India was officially back in Washington’s good books as the two countries reached an agreement on New Delhi separating its civilian and military nuclear facilities and opening up the civilian facilities for inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The US, in return, agreed to work for full civil nuclear cooperation with India. The agreement was clinched during an official visit of prime minister Manmohan Singh. “The successful completion of this initiative clears the way for even greater engagement in a number of key areas in which cooperation has previously been limited or non-existent. The Next Steps in Strategic Partnership, announced in January 2004, was designed to increase cooperation in civilian nuclear activities, civilian space programmes, high-technology trade and missile defence,’’ read the joint statement by the two sides. Three years later, Manmohan and Bush formally concluded the civil nuclear deal. The prime minister withstood tremendous opposition and even risked his government to clinch the deal.

Bilateral partnership has only deepened under Modi, from boosting defence ties to reaping the benefits of the high-technology agreements signed a decade ago. “Bush and Obama pushed for defence ties,’’ said Sood. “But Modi, along with Trump and Biden, has moved it to the strategic sphere.”

The relationship seems to be strong and committed despite concerns about democracy in India, aired in private. And it is going from strength to strength, thanks to China’s continuing rise and threatening presence. “The increasing intensity of the China challenge, as perceived by both Washington and New Delhi, has accelerated the growth of US-India security partnership in recent years,’’ said Kugelman. “Both countries have seen their relations with Beijing fall to their lowest levels in decades, and both perceive China as a threat, not just as a mere competitor or rival.”

is-us-india-defence-deal-a-failure

Sat Jul 01 16:43:10 IST 2023

In 2001, the first of the T-90 tanks rumbled along on Indian soil. It was powered by engines made in a tractor plant in Chelyabinsk, in west central Russia, and assembled in a Uralvagonzavod factory. It was bought on condition that the subsequent batches would be mass produced at the Heavy Vehicles Factory at Avadi, Tamil Nadu, under a transfer of technology regime. But, it was not that smooth.

Though the handover began in 2001, the documents were in Russian. They could all be translated into English only by 2007, causing a critical delay in absorbing Russian tank technology. There were murmurs in South Block that it may have been a ploy to delay technology handover, despite the traditionally close relationship with Russia. In some critical T-90 tank assemblies, documents were not transferred till July 2013.

Similarly, the Russian-origin fighter aircraft Sukhoi Su-30 first appeared over Indian skies in 2002. Even after more than two decades of being operated by the Indian Air Force and despite being mass produced by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, there are areas of aero-engine technology Russia has withheld.

In a nutshell, in defence deals, the selling nation’s strategic interests rule and there is reluctance to share military know-how with the buying state. That is why the June 22 defence deals between India and the US―in the backdrop of growing bonhomie―have an inevitable business-like ring to them.

Hopes were high in New Delhi of a generous transfer of technology (ToT) because of the US interest to prop up India as a “strategic partner” in the Indo-Pacific to counter China and the fact that the deals were to be wrapped up during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to the US, which followed US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin’s June 4-5 India tour.

The expectations were on three critical counts. General Electric’s GE F414 engines to power India’s indigenous Tejas Mk2 fighter aircraft; General Atomics MQ-9B Reaper armed drones; and semiconductor manufacture. It was expected that there would be a 100 per cent ToT in GE F414s that would lead to co-development and co-production from India, and substantial transfer of technical know-how for the armed drones and chip making. But, it was not to be.

While the minute details are being worked out and intense price negotiations are on, it is learnt that the ToT component in the GE F414s would be capped at about 80 per cent, and that there will just be an assembly line and an MRO (maintenance, repair, overhaul) facility for the MQ-9B drones. There will also be an assembly centre and test facility for semiconductors.

Indian officials tried to put up a brave face. An official involved in framing the pact for ToT of GE F414s told THE WEEK that the deal was significant because the US rarely shared so much technology―80 per cent. The deal is valued at more than $1 billion. Another official in the defence ministry’s production wing said no country today would offer total ToT of a key platform, no matter how close the ties were.

The key question, therefore, revolves around the fine print. What kind of technology will be shared and which ones will be off-limits? For instance, will the US transfer aero-engine metallurgical know-how? Metallurgical composition of turbine blades for aero-engines has been a stumbling block to India’s indigenous effort that began in 1986. While unconfirmed reports say that the GE F-414 ToT will cover 11 critical areas including coating for turbine blades, combustor laser drilling technology and fabrication technology, there is nothing about the metallurgical mix.

Tejas light combat aircraft, the first home-made fighter, was fitted with GE F-404 engines that were bought with no ToT. The F-414 powers the US F-18 Super Hornet fighters―expected to be phased out from 2025 onwards. The most advanced frontline fighter in the US fleet is the Lockheed Martin F-35, fitted with the Pratt and Whitney F-119 engine. While it is being said that India has no requirement for a deep-strike aircraft like the F-35, it or its F-119 engine is yet to be offered to India despite being in use in many countries, including Japan, Korea and Israel. Six countries―Belgium, Poland, Singapore, Finland, Germany and Switzerland―are set to induct it soon.

The HALE (high altitude long endurance) MQ-9B drones achieved near-legendary status in West Asia and Afghanistan in the 2000s. But, its relevance will be put to test in India. After the border clash with China, the Indian Navy has been operating two MQ-9Bs taken on lease. In the latest deal, India is looking at 15 MQ-9Bs for the Navy and eight each for the Army and the IAF. In the US, there is already talk of phasing out the MQ-9B.

On June 22, in a briefing at the US department of defence, Pentagon press secretary, Air Force Brigadier General Pat Ryder, said the aim was to make India a logistics hub for the US and other partners in the Indo-Pacific region. “And so we intend to support India in the creation of logistics, repair and maintenance infrastructure for aircraft and ships,” he said. However, three foundational India-US deals―the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, signed in 2016; the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement of 2018; and the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement of 2020―already bind the two nations in a close military embrace.

The latest deal agrees to carry forward plans to ink a security of supply arrangement and a reciprocal defence procurement agreement―the fourth foundational agreement to underline the major defence partner status given to India in June 2016. These two initiatives seek to ensure uninterrupted supply of military equipment in the event of unanticipated supply chain disruptions.

It is therefore only fair to ask whether the military hardware and the stated terms and conditions offered are really commensurate with the close bound and warming ties that India and the US are beginning to cherish.

yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-mercenary-revolt-against-russian-military

Sat Jul 01 18:14:02 IST 2023

An attempt by the owner of the private military company Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, to march along with his soldiers to Moscow turned out to be unsuccessful, but it greatly undermined the prestige of Russian authorities. The Kremlin already knows how to deal with the so-called “liberal opposition”―mostly intellectuals and young students. But what about the rebellion of 25,000 well-armed criminals and mercenaries with combat experience? It seems that Moscow was not ready for this.

The first signals of the rebellion, in fact, appeared by the end of 2022, when Prigozhin began to speak critically about the senior command of the Russian armed forces, including Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. He said the defence ministry was not providing ammunition to Wagner units in Ukraine. Prigozhin’s critical speeches culminated in a statement on June 23 in which he accused the Russian oligarchs and leaders of the armed forces of corruption, lack of professionalism and unwillingness to stop hostilities in Ukraine.

Prigozhin said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “was ready for negotiations” when Putin launched the military operations last year. He also blamed the Russian army for allegedly launching a missile strike on the Wagner units, which led to the death of about 30 fighters. As his troops started moving towards Moscow, he called it a “march of justice” to find out “why the country was in disorder”.

Rostov-on-Don, the million-plus city that houses the headquarters of Russia’s powerful Southern Military District, fell under Prigozhin’s control in a matter of hours. There were reports that the rebels also took Voronezh, a major logistics hub. Some of them even turned to the secret city of Voronezh-12, where Russia maintains a nuclear-weapon storage facility. Russian fighter jets stopped them from going there, but the rebels shot down some of them.

In Moscow, the authorities ordered a counter-terrorist operation regime. Mayor Sergey Sobyanin asked residents to stay indoors. Military vehicles appeared in the city centre and ordinary policemen were given machine guns. On the federal highways leading to Moscow from the south, checkpoints were hastily set up, while excavators smashed the asphalt, digging anti-tank ditches. Petrol prices went up and so did the cost of flying out to neighbouring countries like Turkey, Georgia, Armenia and Kazakhstan. Employers began instructing their staff to stock up water and other essentials. But it all ended abruptly as the Wagner forces, which were only about 200km from Moscow, stopped their advance and drove back. Prigozhin apparently reached a compromise with the Russian government through Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko.

The sudden uprising, however, showed how unstable the situation inside Russia was, even as the war in Ukraine continued unabated. When the war started, there were quite a lot of people who opposed it, but the authorities silenced them with repressive measures. However, by shutting them up, they allowed the emergence of another wing of the disaffected, called “angry patriots.” These are right-wing people who believe that the current Russian Federation is the heir to two empires―the Russian Empire, which collapsed in 1917, and the Soviet Union, which disintegrated in 1991. The Putin administration, which has been using the narrative that Ukraine―at least its eastern part―is an integral part of Russia, has become a hostage of the “angry patriots”. They want the hostilities to be intensified, including tactical nuclear strikes on Kyiv. They also want to keep Russia away from “unfriendly countries” and to subordinate the life of the entire state to one goal―to defeat Ukraine. And then, if necessary, restore by force Moscow’s influence in the Baltic states and other countries of the former Soviet bloc.

It seems that the authorities do not know what to do with “angry patriots”. While the opponents of the war were defamed as “agents of the accursed west” and “traitors to the motherland”, the same will not work with “angry patriots”. The Kremlin worries that Prigozhin could well become their leader.

According to publicly available information, Prigozhin was convicted twice in his youth―for theft and fraud. He spent several years in prison, after which he started a restaurant business in his native Saint Petersburg. It was in his restaurant that President Putin met with the leaders of France and the United States in the early 2000s. Prigozhin gradually branched out into other areas such as construction, media and trade.

Prigozhin’s main business now seems to be leading the Wagner group, which was launched in 2014 to support Russia’s annexation of Crimea. It soon transformed into a full-fledged mercenary structure, playing an active role in global hotspots like Syria, Libya and the Central African Republic. Throughout 2022, when it became clear that Moscow’s plan to quickly “denazify and demilitarise” Ukraine could not be carried out, Prigozhin reportedly started visiting Russian prisons, recruiting prisoners for Wagner, which by that time had begun operating in eastern Ukraine. In exchange, the prisoners were offered pardon, the possibility of employment after demobilisation and even the possibility of studying in Russia’s leading educational institutions. They were paid about $1,300 a month and in case of fatalities, the families were paid more than $50,000.

Wagner units took part in the most difficult battles, including the one for the city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. At the same time, Prigozhin, in the style of the “angry patriots”, wanted Russia to be made a wartime economy, called for the return of the children of Russian officials and oligarchs from abroad, asked for the borders to be closed and demanded the reinstatement of death penalty. As a result, when Prigozhin launched his rebellion, he was opposed not just by the government, but also by most of the opposition that adheres to liberal views. If the opposition cursed Putin earlier, the president suddenly turned out to be the guarantor of order following Prigozhin’s threat. The only exception, perhaps, was oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who lives in exile and is bitterly anti-Putin. He sought support for Prigozhin in the hope of capitalising on the rebellion.

Although Putin was able to defuse the crisis quickly, the “justice march” showed that the government was unable to respond quickly to a serious threat. It is clear that the Wagner military columns would hardly have been able to enter Moscow unhindered, but an open fight between the Russian army and a private military company on the outskirts of the capital would have caused panic across Russia.

Equally concerning was the reaction of the residents of Rostov-on-Don, who greeted the Wagner mercenaries with flowers, which showed that many Russians sympathised with the “search for justice”. In Russia, the idea of justice has always been extremely popular among common people. The bloody riots of people’s leaders Stenka Razin in the 17th century and Yemelyan Pugachev in the 18th century attracted huge support. In both cases, the authorities had to organise full-fledged army operations to suppress the rebels. This thirst for justice has not disappeared completely. The only difference is that now the rebels have missiles and tanks, and could even appropriate nuclear weapons. Moreover, Russia has a large group of people connected with crime, and many of them are in prison. They consider Prigozhin as one of their own and they understand him quite well. If an opportunity presents itself, they will follow him.

The multiple U-turns of the Russian government has, meanwhile, hurt its image. On the afternoon of June 24, Prigozhin and the participants in his march were branded “traitors”. A criminal case was filed against him for inciting rebellion. Putin called Wagner’s actions “treason”, threatening the rebels “inevitable punishment”. But, in the end, there were no traitors. All charges were withdrawn and the criminal case against Prigozhin was closed. It made many Russian citizens unhappy as Wagner had, indeed, tried to start a civil war and betrayed the homeland at a difficult moment, but was quickly forgiven. The Kremlin was forced to compromise as it realised that the niche of the “front-line hero” was empty in today’s Russia. Prigozhin can possibly claim that space as “a tough guy who really fights while the professional military is busy with who knows what”. He has a chance to become a “people’s leader”, albeit with a criminal past.

Prigozhin is now in Belarus. While some of the group’s fighters are moving there, the rest are either going to serve in the Russian army or end their military careers. Most observers believe that Wagner will return to Africa and the Middle East, where they will continue to perform a variety of tasks.

In Russia, the authorities have tightened control in order to prevent new rebellions. It can be expected that there will be no new armed uprisings in the near future. However, the questions that Prigozhin raised―about Russia falling short in Ukraine and who is to blame for the problems of its army―remain. And they continue to remain a major headache for Putin.

significance-of-pm-modi-s-us-visit

Fri Jun 16 17:13:17 IST 2023

The Bidens are known for their carefully planned state dinners. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s dinner in April was a homage to the 70-year-long bilateral relationship. It was marked by references to the special nature of the bond. Cherry blossoms adorned every table, Korean American celebrity chef Edward Lee was roped in to curate the menu, which was finalised after ten rounds of tasting. Yoon’s favourite song from his childhood, “American Pie”, was performed. In a surprise move, the South Korean president crooned the Don McLean song himself. But come June 22, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi attends his state dinner, the Bidens are expected to top all that.

“From my husband, I learned that all politics is personal,” said First Lady Jill Biden at a preview of the Yoon state dinner. It has never been truer for India and the US than it is now. Modi has thrown his weight behind making the bilateral relationship stronger than ever. And Biden has shown that he, too, is clearly committed.

The deal to jointly produce the GE F414 jet engine in India is likely to be finalised during the visit. Throw in the complete technology transfer, and the package looks complete, as the Americans are fiercely protective of their technology. “It is a visit where the emphasis is on strategy,’’ said foreign affairs expert Rakesh Sood. During Donald Trump’s time, the focus was on much thornier aspects like visa and trade―which are still unresolved―but this time, the key takeaways will be technology and strategy. Driven by the prime minister’s office, rather than the defence ministry, defence cooperation is on top of the agenda. Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan landed in Delhi on June 13 to work out the details under the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), signalling the importance with which both governments are looking at enhancing defence ties. It will be useful as trade negotiations have not progressed much.

The Biden administration is believed to have intervened to ensure that India gets access to the jet engine technology, giving Atmanirbhar Bharat the boost it needs. Just ahead of Modi’s visit, the White House offered more: National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby called India a vibrant democracy, responding to a question on the issue. “Anybody who happens to go to New Delhi can see that for themselves,” he said. The statement was significant because in February a report by the senate foreign relations committee had commented on the “downward trend of democratic values and institutions” in India. A month later, a state department report said there were significant human rights issues in India. Kirby’s certification was, therefore, essential, as it assures Americans that India remains a member of the global democratic alliance. It was also a message that Biden had Modi’s back.

The state visit, however, goes beyond boosting Modi’s image even as he becomes the only Indian leader to address the joint session of the US Congress twice. With a combative China and a ‘rogue’ Russia posing a major threat to the liberal, democratic world order, the visit will certainly be viewed through both these prisms. For the US, it is essential that India plays along on both issues so that it can achieve its Indo-Pacific goals, especially reiterating the primacy of the democratic order. It also wants to convince the Global South, where India holds sway, that sitting on the fence on Russia is not a choice.

Does that mean that Delhi has chosen to ignore Moscow? There are signals of a slight recalibration. The Ukraine war has dragged on for more than a year. India has not condemned Russia. But in the past three months, there seems to be a little more empathy towards Ukraine, especially after the visit of Deputy Foreign Minister Emine Dzhaparova. India, however, reportedly rebuffed her attempts to get President Volodymyr Zelensky invited to the G20 summit in September. “It is only for members. We have not reviewed the list, nor has anyone talked to us about it,” said External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

Modi, however, met Zelensky on the sidelines of the G7 summit last month in Hiroshima. Their picture together spoke a thousand words. India is aware of how sensitive Russia would be and how the move would be interpreted by Moscow. There are other signs, too. The 22nd heads of state summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation to be held in Delhi, where Vladimir Putin was expected to be present, is now being held virtually.

In Russia, there is growing concern over India’s relationship with the west. “India is indulging multiple partners,’’ said Nandan Unnikrishnan, distinguished fellow at Observer Research Foundation. “There is a knock on the door. Earlier, the Russians were confident that India would not answer, but now they fear that India may be tempted.” The jet engine deal may not immediately shift India away from Russia, but it could create an ecosystem where Russia ceases to matter.

For the Russians, the worry is real. If the joint production of the F414 engines is not sweet enough, the Germans are courting India with a deal for submarines. Earlier this month, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius were in Delhi. Pistorius was hoping to clinch a deal for six submarines. “India is trying very hard to reduce its dependency on Russia,’’ said Pistorius.

What these developments mean for the cooperation India has with Russia―like the S-400 missile system deal―remains to be seen. These are difficult conversations that New Delhi will certainly have with Washington.

What has also helped India inch closer to the US has been the deliverables on terrorism. The labelling of Jaish-e-Mohammed founder Masood Azhar as an international terrorist was one such mission, and the ongoing battle to get Tahawwur Rana extradited is another one.

Moreover, India’s discourse around terrorism has changed, especially in the context of Pakistan. “With Balakot, India has shown that it can respond,’’ said strategic affairs expert Harsh Pant. “But terrorism is global in nature and institutional mechanisms to deal with it―be it the Financial Action Task Force or the United Nations―need to act. Also, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has, in a way, reduced its reliance on the Pakistan army.”

While India will be ready to cooperate with the US to form an economic shield against China’s Belt and Road Initiative, it will not be an ally like Australia, Japan and the UK. “India is likely to avoid military participation in coalition operations that may be necessary against China in a contingency, like a war in Taiwan,” said Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, at a recent webinar. “No matter how deep our partnership gets, there are some thresholds that India is unlikely to cross.’’

Meanwhile, the China question is changing for the United States as well. Washington had requested a meeting between defence chiefs of both countries on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore held earlier this month, but China declined. However, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is expected to travel to Beijing on June 18. The thaw that Biden predicted at the G7 summit may finally come to pass.

“The Americans could try and create some distance between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping,’’ said Sood. India will be happy as it is uncomfortable about the growing Sino-Russian ties. On the other hand, it will have its concerns about a Sino-American reconciliation. As Sood says, “A multipolar world is promiscuous by nature.”

india-us-aero-engines-deal

Fri Jun 16 17:09:19 IST 2023

When US President Joe Biden hosts Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington, DC, on June 22, a key item on the table is a deal for the powerful GE F414 engines for the Tejas Mk-2 fighter. The deal is vital because the Indian Air Force is reeling under a critical shortage of fighters. It needs 756 fighters for a possible two-front war scenario as against the 560 aircraft it operates at present.

“Our insistence is on total transfer of technology, so we are working out the details. It is a definitive development and holds a lot of potential for manufacturing an entire range of fighter aircraft,” said an official. The state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Limited will partner US defence major GE in the new deal.

India had pursued the dream of an indigenous aero-engine on an indigenous aircraft since 1986. But the indigenous ‘Kaveri’ engine―despite nine prototypes―could not make the cut even after costing a lot time and money. The first indigenous fighter Tejas, inducted into the IAF in 2016, was, therefore, fitted with a GE F404 engine bought off the shelf. There was no transfer of technology. But in the new deal, only the initial batch of the F414 engines will be supplied by the US, the subsequent batches will be manufactured in India after total tech transfer.

The deal, however, is a loaded one. There is a strong likelihood that the F414 or its upgraded variants will be locked in as the engine of choice for several other types of fighter aircraft that India plans to produce. In effect, it will tie India to the US in a manner not seen before.

On June 5, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and visiting US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin chalked out a roadmap for bilateral industrial cooperation in defence. “This initiative aims to change the paradigm for cooperation between US and Indian defence sectors, including a set of specific proposals that could provide India access to cutting-edge technologies and support India’s defence modernisation plans,” said a US defence department release.

The latest developments beg a key question―is India replacing the traditionally close relationship with time-tested friend Russia with a closer bonding with the US? Said G. Parthasarathy, strategic analyst and former ambassador, “We have been buying US equipment for long, but this is the first time that we made it very clear to the US that we needed technology transfer.” He said as India felt threatened by China, it was natural that collaboration with the US would increase, as Russia was preoccupied in Ukraine.

“Amid warming ties with the US, the relationship with Russia continues. The Russians continue to provide us with huge amounts of oil at very reasonable prices. Both Russia and the US are aware of where we stand. We are not acting against Russian or American interests. We are dealing with an aggressive China,” said Parthasarathy.

With the world order gradually evolving into a multipolar one from the US-dominated unipolar moment, India’s position calls for prolific multilateral engagement. That is why India is a prominent member of several multilateral groupings from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation―where Russia and China are members―to the US-backed Quad. This has given India a lot of manoeuvrability and strategic depth.

“Despite unhappiness on the Indian position over Ukraine, the US is going ahead with the aero-engine deal,” said military analyst Lieutenant General Rakesh Sharma (retd). “The US also understands that India does not want to be called a frontline state against China. Yet it wants to help India out and hopes that India becomes some kind of a balancer against China.” Sharma said the US knew that it would take some time for India to come out of dependence on Russia. “If the US is keen to help India despite all these, it shows great pragmatism,” he said.

At the same time, there is a realisation that the US would not give India cutting-edge weaponry. The F414 is not the most advanced engine. The US frontline fighter F-35 uses the Pratt & Whitney F135 engine. American weapon systems also come with a lot of conditions. Nuclear weapons cannot be fitted on US-supplied platforms nor can they be used in a war against US allies.

At the same time, the US and the west accept that they need India. “The US is facing a serious economic and military challenge it has never faced before. Just to tackle China, it has collapsed its four strategic zones―West Asia, South Asia, the ASEAN countries and the Pacific―and formed just one blanket strategic zone, the Indo-Pacific. That strategy hinges on two countries―India and Australia―the only countries in the region to slow down the pace of the Chinese challenge,” said Kumar Sanjay Singh, a modern history professor at a Delhi University college. “Because India is lagging far behind China militarily, the US wants to help India. Moreover, with the declining American influence in West Asia and Africa, India is the only stable strategic geography to manage the expanse from the Arabian Sea to the Bay of Bengal up to the ASEAN region―the reason why the US has elevated India to the status of a strategic partner. No other non-NATO country has this status,” he said.

At the same time, India is pivotal for the Russian effort to challenge the dollar’s dominance. Russia also needs India for a number of its strategic and economic goals. While Russia is the prime mover behind the de-dollarisation move, India is considered part of the broader push.

Armed with sufficient reasons, India has in recent years tried to broad-base its sources of weaponry and military equipment. Fighter aircraft engines, helicopters and transport aircraft from the US, air defence systems and aircraft from Russia, military transport aircraft from Spain, fighter aircraft from France and submarine engines from Germany―all these are part of a plan. The central idea is to avoid excessive reliance on one country and make sure that options are always available.

the-us-has-learnt-to-live-with-india-s-strategic-autonomy

Fri Jun 16 17:06:26 IST 2023

Who would have thought that Narendra Damodardas Modi, who was refused a US visa for 10 years, will hit it off so well with three American presidents with totally different personalities. Barack Obama must have never met a guest who came to a White House dinner, but did not eat; Modi was fasting during the Navratras. Donald Trump had to play second fiddle to the Indian prime minister at the “Howdy, Modi!” event in Houston. At the G7 summit in Hiroshima last month, Joe Biden joked that he might have to seek Modi’s autograph, given his popularity.

Modi has brought about a paradigm shift in India-US relations. For the Obama administration, partnership with Delhi was the most “defining relationship” of the 21st century. Trump changed the nomenclature of Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific and energised the Quad (India, US, Japan and Australia), making India a crucial strategic partner.

The flurry of visits by senior members of the Biden administration―the commerce and defence secretaries and the national security adviser were in India recently―signals that the president wants Modi’s state visit to be a huge success. Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, stressed the significance of the visit: “There are few relationships in the world that are more vital to the US and India.... India and the US are indispensable partners.”

As bilateral ties grow steadily, Modi’s principal secretary P.K. Mishra held discussions with Biden’s chief of staff Jeff Zients, commerce secretary Gina Raimondo and USAID administrator Samantha Power. Foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra held separate meetings with assistant secretary of State Victoria Nuland and under secretary for industry, Alan Estevez. And National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby called India a vibrant democracy, which has come as music to Indian ears after the state department’s critical report about religious freedom in India. Evidently, both sides want to concentrate on the positives and make Modi’s visit most productive.

There exists bipartisan consensus in India and the US on strong bilateral ties; the change of guard in Washington and Delhi does not rock the relationship. Modi, meanwhile, has realised that to fulfill his ambitious domestic development agenda and to make India a $10 trillion economy, the country needs more trade, investment and technology, including AI, from the US. A strong, strategic partnership with the US also opens up many doors; India’s expanding profile in the Quad and the Indo-Pacific and closer ties with US allies such as Japan, South Korea and Australia vindicate it.

Following China’s aggression in Galwan and the continuing terrorist menace from Pakistan, India has realised the significance of close defence and security cooperation with the US, although short of a formal alliance. Overcoming “the hesitation of history”, India signed several key defence agreements with the US, enhancing interoperability of military communications. The US has accorded India major defence partner status and also the strategic trade authorisation status (STA 1). Export of American military hardware worth over $22 billion in the last decade underlines the burgeoning defence ties.

The US perceives India, the most populous democracy in the world and a formidable military and economic power, as a bulwark against an aggressive and assertive China. Moreover, key concerns like climate change, pandemic and terrorism cannot be addressed without India.

Not condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine and buying Russian oil in unprecedented quantities despite pressure from the US and its allies show India’s strategic autonomy. The US has learnt to live with that. And, no US president can ignore four million rich and influential Americans of Indian origin.

The author is a retired ambassador and founding president of the Indo-American Friendship Association.

tahawwur-rana-extradition-process-boosted-by-modi-s-diplomatic-outreach-efforts

Fri Jun 16 17:03:04 IST 2023

The bonhomie on display between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and president Barack Obama at the White House in 2014 was among the factors that helped create a roadmap for a deeper strategic partnership between India and the US. A few months after the visit, a phone call from Modi to Obama paved the way for a secret collaboration which would turn out to be crucial in India’s 26/11 investigations.

After the call, National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and then special envoy to West Asia and Af-Pak region in the National Security Council Secretariat Syed Asif Ibrahim went into a huddle and asked Atulchandra Kulkarni, then joint commissioner of police in Mumbai, and Ujjwal Nikam, special public prosecutor in the 26/11 case, to fly to the US. They were asked to meet senior officers of the FBI and the state department to secure the cooperation of Lashkar-e-Taiba operative David Coleman Headley, who was in American custody. The American sleuths had some tough questions for them. Why did they want Headley’s deposition as he was not present in Pakistan or India at the time of the attacks? If Ajmal Kasab, the lone surviving terrorist, did not meet Headley, why was his cooperation required?

India’s diplomatic heft combined with the investigative skills of the duo helped them get Headley to testify before a Mumbai court through video conference. His explosive testimony brought to light the conspiracy hatched by the LeT, with active assistance from some officers of the Pakistan army. “It was because of Headley’s statement that we were able to clinch the role of the Pakistani actors,” Nikam told THE WEEK.

Headley also spoke about his key accomplice and friend Tahawwur Rana, a Pakistani-origin Canadian businessman presently serving a jail term in the US for being associated with the banned LeT and his role in plotting an attack on a Danish newspaper for publishing cartoons of Prophet Mohammed. In May, a US court consented to India’s request to extradite Rana, whose jail term ends in 2027.

When Modi meets Biden, Rana’s extradition is expected to figure high on the agenda. Incidentally, on the saddle once again is Kulkarni, now additional director general in the National Investigation Agency. The key is a quick extradition because if Rana completes his sentence and returns to Canada, India may have to pursue the matter afresh. There are at least two stages of appeal available to Rana and he is likely to exhaust all his options. On June 2, he filed a writ of habeas corpus challenging the extradition order. It could delay the process by at least a year.

What is working in India’s favour is the diplomatic cooperation offered by the US government, with US legal eagles fighting the case on India’a behalf, which is rare in extradition matters. “We are constantly in touch with our counterparts in the US. The legal collaboration is very effective,’’ said a senior government official. But there are bigger challenges ahead. Rana was not named in the chargesheet filed by the Mumbai Police, but was only an accused in the bigger 26/11 conspiracy. Ramesh Mahale, who was the investigating officer of the case, said there was no evidence against Rana when he investigated the matter. “I did not find any evidence against him till my retirement in June 2013. I don’t know whether my successor was able to collect any evidence,” he said.

The ball is in the NIA’s court to firm up enough evidence. If the extradition comes through, Rana might spill the beans on key terror conspirators hiding in Pakistan, like LeT patron Hafiz Saeed, the “project manager” of the 26/11 attacks Sajid Mir and LeT commander Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi among others. The NIA hopes that the extradition process would receive a boost from Modi’s diplomatic outreach efforts in Washington.

russia-ukraine-conflict-latest-developments

Sat Jun 10 12:30:32 IST 2023

BACK IN MAY-JUNE 1989, when tanks rolled out on Tiananmen Square to crush the movement of the Chinese youth for political reforms, their hopes for change were high, in view of the normalisation of relations with the Soviet Union during Mikhail Gorbachev’s visit after a freeze of 30 years. But what happened ultimately was quite the opposite. “Let us close the past and open a new future,” Chinese supremo Deng Xiaoping told Gorbachev. The latter agreed, notwithstanding the mounting tension on Tiananmen and in several other cities. Future was opened for the rulers of China and the Soviet Union and later, Russia, without breaking ground for the people.

That same year, Europe witnessed groundbreaking changes. In the former republics of the Soviet Union and in east Europe, the spirit of citizens’ resilience exposed the futility of totalitarian systems as unsustainable forms of governance, leading to the fall of the Berlin Wall and also a sea change across eastern Europe. Many leaders could not fathom the depth of the changes. British prime minister Margaret Thatcher and French president Francois Mitterrand were wary of the rise of a unified, strong Germany, a fear that loomed large in Europe after World War II. They tried to convince Gorbachev to react politically against the fall of the Wall.

Gorbachev had neither the intent nor the capacity to act against the wave of change, hammering the last nail in the coffin of the Brezhnev doctrine, which legitimised interventions in countries where socialist rulers were threatened by mass movements. In fact, the Soviet leadership was quite careful and was against direct intervention in Europe after their bitter taste of the 1968 Prague Spring and especially after their entry into Afghanistan in 1979. Even during the 1980-1981 uprisings in Poland, neither the Soviet Union nor the Warsaw Pact engaged in direct intervention, limiting it to orchestration from a distance, whereby the Poles themselves were handling the situation by imposing martial law. Russia is not so careful today.

Envisioning a post-bipolar world after the end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union led to 15 new states, all building their statehood, market economy and multiparty democracy, which was a serious transition from non-state peripheral entities, state-controlled planned economy and single party rule. For the three Baltic States, whose statehood was nullified after their inclusion in the Soviet Union under the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, the choice of policies in favour of the EU and NATO was clear. For the other 12 republics, building the outer attributes of statehood and market was easier than that of democracy. Crony capitalism and the oligarchic model benefited the few who were owners of resources and power in several of these countries in various forms and degrees. This disenfranchised the middle and educated class in largely electoral democracies, often choosing between the not so good and really bad candidates. Georgia and Kyrgyzstan were swept by revolutions with various outcomes, not always leading to the changes desired by people.

Ukraine still is imperfect in many respects, but it is a hotbed of uprisings and revolutions starting from the 1990s; the 2004 Orange revolution and the 2013 Dignity revolution led to changes in power and policies―it welcomed the EU candidate status, but not NATO membership, although Russia’s complaint against NATO expansion is a key argument today for its aggression. It uses a non-documented conversation Gorbachev had with US secretary of state James Baker before the collapse of the Soviet Union. With the Soviet Union gone, such references do not hold good any more, as each sovereign country decides what to do and when. Why Russia never complained all these decades till 2022, and itself enjoyed a privileged partnership within the NATO-Russia Council: a question not difficult to answer. Ukraine never had such privileges and may still not have in the nearest future.

Russia viewed each Ukrainian uprising with suspicion. The crux of the problem does not lie so much in Ukraine’s possible NATO membership, than in the model of governance, of citizen’s participation, decentralisation and mainly the boldness and resilience of the Ukrainian people, who are an inspiration for the Russian people to challenge their authoritarian system back home. In the skilful Russian narrative, Ukraine became an “anti-Russia”, hence the need for “demilitarisation”: for a country which begs around for weapons. And “denazification”: for a country which is headed by a Jewish president.

The war resulted in Russian occupation of parts of Ukraine, utter destruction of vast territories, excesses such as mass deportation, torture, murders and disappearance of civilians, which fall under the category of war crimes or crimes against humanity.

On June 6, after Russian forces blew up parts of a dam at the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric plant on the Dnipro River, which is currently occupied by Russia, the chances of peace negotiations are becoming remote. Russians said it was caused by Ukrainian missiles―however, it is seen to have been blown up from the inside. This ecocide and war crime has put 80 settlements and hundreds of thousands of people at risk of flooding. The reservoir was used for providing cooling water for the Zaporizhzhya nuclear plant, the largest in Europe. Within days, the situation will exacerbate. Crimea will have no water, some territories will be flooded and others will face desertification. Condemnation from the world will flow.

None of the objectives of Russia’s so-called “special military operation” has been achieved. Ukraine is armed, it has built a network of support of the international community. Russia even lost more. Apart from losing more than two lakh soldiers, it has also lost the respect and status of a big power, its reputation as a predictable neighbour and a reliable partner or supplier of goods because its major productions are under sanctions. Only people with no foresight can think that Russia’s losses are compensated by the territories it is occupying.

With regard to China, in the decades after 1989, Russia was indifferent to the plight of the Uyghurs and other government actions inconsistent with the values of entrepreneurship, globalisation and human initiative. Capital and money mattered more, not values. The US was not too critical either. It was assumed that with private ownership and exposure to open societies, values of freedom and democracy will germinate automatically. But if that did not happen in many former republics of the Soviet Union, why will it happen in “one state with two systems” China.

Systemic similarity brought Russia and China closer. The beginning of what we see today was planted in 1989, the alignment in Sino-Russian relations, a friendship without limits, unified by their common perception of challenging the west, the US and the democratic world.

As the Chinese envoy went around Europe brokering peace between Ukraine and Russia, death reigned across the skies of Kyiv every night in May, with a total of 198 missiles and drones raining down on people who took refuge in shelters and metro stations, some hiding in the windowless corridors of their apartments. Almost 90 per cent of the missiles and drones were shot down.

Missiles from the sky hit the ground reality so hard that only direct witnesses can shape the ultimate political decision. A frozen conflict will be deadly for Ukraine and the rest of the world. What Russia did in Ukraine will set a precedent for China to emulate in Asia. The memory of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum is still fresh, every clause of which was ignored by the parties guaranteeing security to Ukraine, especially Russia, which engaged in armed intervention. Ukraine’s leadership has few choices but to listen to its people, who will not accept any truce at the cost of territories after all that they have gone through. They risk their skies to break ground for new beginnings. The war of nerves and missiles is yet to end.

Mridula Ghosh, formerly with the UN, is now based in Kyiv, teaching at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, and also leads an NGO.

erdogan-victory-in-turkish-presidential-elections-2023

Fri Jun 02 16:20:52 IST 2023

“IF IT LOOKS LIKE A duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it probably is a duck.” An example of abductive reasoning, it means that if something has all the characteristics which suggest the same thing, it is most probably that thing itself, regardless of what it is called or presented as.

Before analysing the possible consequences of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s victory in the presidential elections on May 28, it is important to understand how the Turkish opposition managed to lose the most winnable elections of the last 20 years, despite Turkey being in the middle of a severe economic crisis and with public anger over the government’s response to powerful earthquakes in February that left at least 50,000 people dead. Was the opposition bloc’s candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who has never won a single election against Erdogan, the right candidate?

Kilicdaroglu might be the most honest person on earth, with the most robust democratic values and best intentions for his country, but having good intentions is never enough in politics to win a tight election, especially when almost all state resources are used in favour of the candidate who is in power. This was not a fair election at all, as all state resources were used in Erdogan’s favour, but this cannot be an excuse for the opposition’s loss.

Yes, a sprawling system of influence over the mainstream media and the judiciary and the state largesse helped to maintain the Turkish president’s popularity with the voters. But is it enough to explain the failure of the opposition bloc which consisted of a motley alliance of political parties called the Table of Six? The answer is no.

During his 13 years of leadership of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey’s main opposition party, Kilicdaroglu has been involved in 10 elections and yet he has never won a single one against Erdogan. On the other hand, there were other names on the table for the opposition, such as Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who is a new face with the CHP and who has beaten Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) twice during the local elections in 2019.

Yet, Kilicdaroglu insisted that he was the right candidate. And the rest of the leaders of the Table of Six, except Meral Aksener, the leader of the iYi (the Good Party), the second largest party in the National Alliance bloc, also wanted him to be the presidential candidate. What probably worked in Kilicdaroglu’s favour was the fact that he was a more unassuming politician than Imamoglu and compromised a lot of the CHP’s policies to keep the smaller parties within the alliance. Small right-wing parties, which have 1 to 2 per cent of the total votes, managed to win 38 seats in parliament thanks to Kilicdaroglu who favoured them over the CHP’s own candidates.

It was only Aksener who opposed Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy and supported Imamoglu by stressing constantly that the iYi was in favour of a candidate who had the capacity to win. She even walked away from a leadership meeting in an apparent show of anger immediately after Kilicdaroglu was declared the presidential nominee.

Second, with an ungrounded overconfidence, the opposition bloc believed that no matter what, it would beat Erdogan. According to political lobbies, the opposition leaders were fighting among themselves for seats in a future cabinet. They underestimated Erdogan’s ability to mobilise his voters by using a populist discourse, even if it occasionally included misinformation.

Third, by the time the opposition declared its presidential candidate, it was too late. The announcement came in March, just three months before the elections. That left the opposition leadership with insufficient time for an efficient election strategy.

The opposition alliance’s motto was “returning to the parliamentary system”, which called for abolishing the presidential system introduced by Erdogan. The intent was good, but the opposition leaders missed the fact they first had to win the elections in order to change the system. Moreover, the rhetoric itself did not appeal to the ordinary public as they were struggling with economic difficulties.

A series of wrong decisions and outright incompetence cost the opposition its chance to unseat Erdogan. To be more precise, just from the very beginning, Kilicdaroglu looked like a duck, walked like a duck and talked like a duck, but everyone in the opposition chose to believe that he was not a duck. (Before somebody starts a lynching campaign, I am using the word ‘duck’ as a metaphor, I am not calling Kilicdaroglu a ‘duck’.)

So, what now?

As Erdogan extends his rule into a third decade, and as the Turkish parliament becomes the most right-wing in history, there will be political, economic and social consequences of these elections. Turkey will be facing a more fragile economy with a higher risk of a slump in the lira. It is not clear whether Erdogan will stick to his low interest rate policy or not, but in any case, the lira might become much weaker against the dollar and euro and high inflation might cause much more economic hardship.

The pressure on independent media will probably increase, although Erdogan controls nearly 90 per cent of the mainstream media in Turkey. The downturn in democratic values and judicial independence will most probably continue.

Since it was the nationalist wing of the Turkish society which determined the results of this elections, the nationalist tone of the government will also increase, and Erdogan will feel more comfortable carrying his anti-western rhetoric further.

Another “winner” of this elections is Russian President Vladimir Putin who has cordial ties with Erdogan for many years. Despite mounting pressure on Ankara to help bolster western sanctions against Moscow in the light of the Ukraine crisis, Erdogan said in a recent interview that Turkey had a “special” and growing relationship with Russia. Putin was among the leaders who congratulated Erdogan immediately after the elections, calling him a “dear friend”, according to the Kremlin.

When it comes to foreign policy, Turkey’s tilt towards Russia, China and the east will continue. The west will have to live with the fact that Turkey, which has the second largest military force in NATO, is ruled by someone who enjoys cordial ties with Putin.

As Turkey continue to lean towards the east, ties with India will also improve. Turkey has been a firm believer in the expansion of the United Nations Security Council. Recently, Ruchira Kamboj, India’s permanent representative to the UN, called for a “major course correction” in the functioning of the Security Council. She said “India, which was the world’s largest democracy, along with Africa and Latin America, were being kept out of global decision-making”.

Turkey and India clearly share the same interests when it comes to reforming the UNSC system and there is a lot of room for cooperation in the international arena.

—Yezdani is a Turkish journalist who has covered diplomacy and international news for various media outlets including the Associated Press, BBC and CNN.

challenges-for-erdogan-after-victory-in-turkish-presidential-elections

Fri Jun 02 17:53:09 IST 2023

With his victory in the presidential elections run off held on May 28, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 69, has reinforced his position as the longest-ruling leader of the modern Turkish republic. When his Justice and Development Party (AKP) won its first election in November 2002, Erdogan could not become prime minister. Turkey, back then, had a parliamentary system of government. Erdogan was kept out by a judicial ban imposed on him for using a few lines from a poem by Turkish nationalist Ziya Gokalp at a rally in the city of Siirt six years ago. He chose his trusted lieutenant, Abdullah Gul, as prime minister until the AKP-dominated parliament voted to suspend the ban. Erdogan took over as prime minister on March 15, 2003.

Erdogan’s political memories were made of impoverished Turkish villages and cities where he struggled in his childhood and student days. An angry, yet ambitious Erdogan joined student politics in 1976 under his mentor Necmettin Erbakan, the architect of political Islam in modern Turkey. Erdogan’s oratorical and political skills, and his piety helped him rise quickly through the ranks and he became the Islamists’ candidate for the Istanbul mayor elections in 1994. He won and used the opportunity to transform Istanbul into a truly modern city. Erdogan soon became a national icon as his nationalistic speeches buffeted by Islamist narratives appealed to a large section of Turkish voters.

In 1997, a court found Erdogan guilty of violating Turkey’s strict secular laws in the Gokalp poem case. He was stripped of mayorship and was jailed for 10 months. Erdogan, however, was able to convert the crisis to his favour, invoking populist and religious sentiments. As his popularity surged, he sought to take over the leadership of the Islamists.

Erdogan made two major policy shifts in Islamist politics: he asked the Islamists to abandon their long-held anti-European and anti-western mindset and to moderate their principles if they wanted to win power. Finding it difficult to unite multiple Islamist factions, he co-founded the AKP in August 2001, and it made an impressive debut in the 2002 general elections. Erdogan presented himself as a reformer and promised to deliver all necessary measures required to join the European Union. Soon, politicians from across the ideological faultlines started flocking to the AKP. Western newspapers were excited about Erdogan’s campaign as he promised strong relations with the west and also neoliberal reforms.

To Turkey’s alienated Kurdish population, Erdogan promised a fair deal. The AKP quickly emerged as Turkey’s largest gathering of Islamists, nationalists, secularists, Kurds and minorities who resented the Turkish elite, the corrupt coalition governments and the declining economy. The party won the election with 34 per cent votes as the new social engineering turned out to be extremely successful in gaining the trust of the people.

Erdogan gradually won over Turkey’s secular hearts and minds, but was left with one serious detractor, a staunchly Kemalist military that controlled major decision-making positions. For years, Erdogan remained cautious, non-confrontational and development-centric, to secure another term. After the Turkish armed forces issued a warning against AKP’s presidential candidate in 2007, Erdogan decided to conduct early elections and also organised a referendum to seek direct election of the president. He successfully neutralised the military’s objections against the AKP’s presidential candidate.

In 2010, he conducted another referendum for a slew of reforms required for EU accession, which curtailed the role of the military in most civilian institutions. By that time, he had visited most European capitals and held several rounds of dialogues for accession. Turkey was considered a role model of democracy and Islam.

Erdogan’s optimism with the west suffered a major setback after the entire Arab world, including Turkey’s immediate neighbour, Syria, fell into social and political chaos following the Arab Spring in 2011. As Syria faced a brutal civil war and armed insurgency, Turkey was left alone to deal with the conflict and the inflow of refugees.

Erdogan felt cornered as US president Barack Obama backtracked from his Syria policy and the Russian air force started bombing rebel-held areas in Syria. When Turkey shot down a Russian jet for violating Turkish airspace, the western response disappointed Erdogan. Soon, Iranian militias were all over Syria and Iraq, large swathes of territories were taken over by Islamic State, and northern Syria was declared a semi-autonomous territory governed by US-backed Kurdish forces.

This was Erdogan’s first-ever experience with a military conflict at his country’s borders. Most NATO members, meanwhile, disagreed that the creation of a semi-autonomous region on Turkey’s southern border posed a threat to Turkey’s national security. The Eurasianists, who used to be a weak bloc in the Turkish armed forces, proposed to disrupt the creation of a potential Kurdish state on the Syrian border by launching a cross-border operation.

Erdogan was quick to learn the new realities and agreed to re-engage with Russia and Iran to find a deconflict mechanism for Syria. The Astana peace process launched in January 2017 (by Russia and Iran, which supported Syria, and Turkey, which backed the rebels) to end the Syrian conflict became Erdogan’s biggest diplomatic victory. With Russian support, Erdogan launched military operations in Syria, as the Syrian government failed to stop Kurdish rebels from using Syrian soil against Turkey.

With these operations, Erdogan became more popular among the Turkish nationalists. In 2018, he changed Turkey into a presidential republic from a parliamentary one, based on a referendum conducted in 2017. Emboldened by his Syria operations, he supported Libya’s UN-recognised government against UAE-backed Libyan factions. In Azerbaijan, too, Turkish drones created new realities. Turkey’s growing defence industry aided Erdogan’s push for defence cooperation with many countries. Erdogan’s policies, however, led to a near total break with the west, stalling EU membership talks and widening the rift with the US, despite Turkey being a NATO member and hosting a base with American nuclear weapons and troops.

Despite achieving prominence on the world stage, domestic challenges remain a major concern for Erdogan. On July 15, 2016, he escaped a violent coup attempt by a section of the Turkish military. He responded with a ruthless crackdown against the rebels. To expel loyalists of controversial US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen, said to be the coup mastermind, Erdogan used Kemalists, secularists and nationalists as replacements.

Back in 2003, the Kemalist elite in Turkey thought Erdogan would never survive in politics even for a few years, let alone for two decades. However, the “novice on the national stage” has now been “accustomed to proving himself”. Since then, Erdogan has been a great improviser in his style, politics, tactics and strategies. He has been successful in engineering winnable support from all ideological camps in Turkey.

His key skill is communication, which he uses to remain relevant, connected and accessible to all sections of the population. For example, he maintains very close and regular interactions with elected village heads who have a great influence on voters.

If anything should define Erdogan’s ideology, it is the pragmatism that he embraces in every crisis. He shook hands with every leader who once considered him a fierce opponent, including Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and President Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE. At home, too, he readily reaches out to anyone who he thinks can be of benefit to him.

Reviving Turkish economy could be the biggest challenge for Erdogan in his new term. He had relied on upgrading infrastructure in the first decade of his rule and he realised only late that Turkey was going to miss the bus of the fourth industrial revolution, as sectors like information technology, innovation and research and development remained neglected. Turkish graduates are undertrained or underemployed as the job market has shrunken.

Erdogan has won the elections, but he knows that Turkey’s Gen Z is increasingly frustrated and disenchanted. He has very little time to revive the Turkish economy and meet young Turks’ genuine aspirations.

—Anas is an Ankara based academician and analyst.

imran-khan-arrest-army-and-government-against-pti

Sat May 13 11:55:36 IST 2023

On May 9, as former prime minister Imran Khan was undergoing the biometric registration process at the Islamabad high court, a contingent of Pakistan Rangers in riot control gear swooped down on him. The paramilitary commandos took him away, manhandling those around him. They were acting on the directions of the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) in the Al-Qadir Trust corruption case, one of the several cases Imran is facing. A day later, an Islamabad court remanded him to NAB custody for eight days.

Imran, his wife Bushra Bibi, and other PTI leaders are facing an NAB inquiry related to a settlement between the ousted PTI government and property tycoon Malik Riaz, allegedly causing a loss of ￡190 million to the national exchequer. According to the NAB, Imran’s government adjusted the amount that was returned by Britain’s National Crime Agency to the Pakistan government as part of a settlement with Riaz. As prime minister, Imran got cabinet approval for the settlement, but kept it confidential. The money was submitted to the supreme court on behalf of Riaz. The Al-Qadir Trust was subsequently given land worth billions to establish a university.

With Imran behind bars, it is a battle for survival for him and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. Following the former prime minister’s arrest, his party’s top brass, too, was rounded up, turning it into the biggest challenge the PTI has faced since inception. As news about Imran’s arrest spread, PTI activists were out on the streets in several cities, and the protests turned violent quickly. Army establishments were specifically targeted. The corps commander house in Lahore was torched by protesters, who also vandalised the GHQ (General Headquarters) in Rawalpindi. Public property ranging from government schools and offices to Radio Pakistan, too, came under attack. The PTI leadership distanced itself from the violent protests. “Political parties try to keep protests and political movements peaceful. Unfortunately, once violence starts in a political movement, there is no way to stop it or contain it,” said senior leader Fawad Chaudhry. “We tried to control violent protests as much as we could.”

Yet, some audio leaks suggest that the top leadership of the PTI may have been complicit. The crackdown on the party is expected to be fierce and the next few days will determine whether it will be able to steer itself through the crisis. In an ominous warning to Imran and the PTI, the Pakistan military said that May 9 would go down in history as a dark chapter. “Soon after Imran’s arrest, there were organised attacks on army properties and installations and anti-army slogans were raised. A power-hungry group wrapped in political garb has done to the country what its enemies had failed to do since its inception,” said a statement by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the military’s media wing. It called the PTI leaders ‘hypocrites’ for inciting their workers against the armed forces on the one hand, and praising the military on the other.

Senior journalist Asma Shirazi said that despite the violence, there was no massive support for Imran, which has bust the myth of his “unprecedented popularity”. She said most people who came out were miscreants who tried to spread terror. “The PTI’s status as a political party is now under question and its popularity has taken a hit. What happened on May 9―the attack on GHQ and the corps commander house in Lahore―will stick to it just like the attack on the supreme court by the PML(N) back in 1997. It will haunt the PTI forever and define its relationship with security institutions.” She said by unleashing the violence, the PTI provided an excuse for the government to avoid any blame that it would have otherwise faced after the arrest. She also questioned the support Imran continued to receive from outside Pakistan.

But there are several experts who think that the crackdown against Imran and the PTI went against existing laws. Senior lawyer Faisal Chaudhry told THE WEEK that Imran’s arrest was illegal because under NAB’s amended laws, a call-up notice had to be issued while converting an inquiry into an investigation. It was not followed in Imran’s case. “May 1 is Labour Day. How can the NAB issue a warrant on a holiday? Moreover, Imran was arrested from the premises of the Islamabad high court, violating its sanctity.” Chaudhry said if the NAB wanted to arrest Imran, it should have coordinated with his legal team.

Senior journalist Gharidah Farooqi said the arrest was not completely unexpected. There were a few things that led to the present impasse, especially Imran’s criticism of a very senior military officer for almost a year―he often referred to him as “Dirty Harry”. On the political front, the federal government did not want to hold elections in Punjab on May 14, a date stipulated by the supreme court after Imran challenged the delay in announcing the polls. The Shehbaz Sharif government seems to be sending a message through Imran’s arrest: Punjab elections will be held with the general elections, which are likely in October after the existing national assembly completes its tenure.

Fawad Chaudhry tried to shift the blame towards the Sharif government for the ongoing crisis. He said the PTI’s bond with the army was quite strong as their voter base included Pakistan’s elite classes. “Army families come to our rallies. It is very unfortunate that despite such historic ties, there are differences between the PTI and the army high command. This is not a good thing and it only benefits the government.”

Chaudhry also expressed concern about Imran’s safety. “We have not been given access to him till now. We don’t know how he is, whether he got medical aid or not. The judge was told that he should come and see him, and that he could not be brought to the court.”

The incarceration could define Imran’s political future as it is not easy to fight a political battle from inside a jail cell. “Imran has not been to jail like this before. This will be a make-or-break moment for him,” said Farooqi. “When he gets bail, we will see how he reacts and what he does.”

Former senator Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar said the ongoing political drama reminded him of the popular quote, “there’s never a dull moment in Pakistan”. But as the crisis continues to aggravate, he appears worried about the country’s future. “It has crossed the threshold of cheap thrills that we are used to, even by our own standards. It is only a matter of time before the old structures crumble,” said Khokhar. “Will the resulting chaos give birth to a new star or hurl us into the abyss, only time will tell.”

ukraine-contibutions-to-science-and-technology

Fri May 12 13:18:48 IST 2023

AROUND EASTER IN April 2023, on Holocaust Remembrance Day, six-year-old Taras and his mother, Daryna, went to visit his father’s grave, near Hostomel. Taras was holding a small drawing of a big plane, with the words “Mriya never dies” written on them. I joined them. In February 2022, within a few days of Russia’s full-blown invasion against Ukraine, troops were nearing Kyiv. Taras’s father, Yevhen, who worked at the Hostomel airport, succumbed to fatal injuries received during heavy fighting on the outskirts. The world’s largest aircraft, “Mriya”, was housed in Hostomel and it was destroyed in a missile attack. It was symbolic, as mriya in Ukrainian means dream.

Daryna then was in Ternopil in west Ukraine with Taras, and came to know about her husband’s death only weeks later. Shocked and heartbroken, she told Taras that his father was holding the sky up, until it became too heavy for him. Falling, the sky crushed everybody, including “Mriya”. Since then, Taras believes that holding the sky up is the most important thing in this war. It is indeed so.

During February and March 2022, “closing the sky” above Ukraine was the most urgent need of the hour. Multiple campaigns led to no result. Ukraine’s allies faltered in becoming a party to the war and opted to give anti-missile systems instead. Colossal damages not only to military, but also civilian infrastructure, innumerable deaths, injuries, displacement and sufferings of people in places distant from the Russian border are all results of massive air raids.

Geography has been utterly unfair, giving Ukraine a belligerent neighbour with endless appetite for incursions, but history has been no fairer. The truth is that Ukrainians always held the sky up, for the former Soviet Union and the world. However, their contributions to Soviet rocket science, missile and space programmes are denied or are attributed to Russia. Worse, Ukraine’s sky is now open, vulnerable. The air defence guys are blessed by all 24x7, people owe peaceful nights and days to them.

“To hold the sky up” is not intercepting attacking missiles, but something greater and historical for Ukrainians. Records show several pioneers: the first one is Oleksandr Zasyadko of Ukrainian Cossack descent from the Poltava region–whose rockets excelled during the 1877-1878 Russo-Turkish war. The International Astronomical Union named a moon crater after him. Then there is Yuri Kondratyuk, one of the founders of cosmonautics, paving humanity’s way to the moon. His “Kondratyuk track” made in 1916 was used in the American Apollo lunar programme.

And who will deny the leadership of Serhiy Korolyov, from Zhytomyr, Ukraine, director of the Soviet space programme, in launching the first satellite, Sputnik 1, on October 4, 1957, and guiding Yuri Gagarin’s first space flight in 1961, marking the USSR’s first successes? Pavlo Popovich, the fourth human and the first Ukrainian in space, proudly told Nikita Khrushchev in Ukrainian: “I am the first Soviet cosmonaut from Ukraine.”

All these Soviet legacies undeniably owe a big share to Ukraine. Not recognising this is both myopic and colonial. Everything Soviet does not mean Russian.

Independent Ukraine could soon catch up. In 1997, thanks to Leonid Kadenyuk, who spent 15 days and 16 hours in space on the US space shuttle Columbia, the flag of Ukraine was raised and the anthem played in space for the first time. From 2006 to 2008, Heidemarie Martha Stefanyshyn-Piper―a NASA astronaut and woman of Ukrainian origin―made five spacewalks totalling 33 hours and 42 minutes.

Not only persons, institutions matter as well. Daryna, herself an aviation engineer, says it is hard to believe that the Ukrainian aerospace industry that started as early as 1954, founding the world’s best companies in Dnipropetrovsk (now Dnipro), has to beg the world today for air defence. Ukrainian giants such as the Yuzhnoye State Design Office and the Yuzhmash Machine-Building Plant (now the Pivdenniy Machine-Building Plant) produced countless ballistic and space rockets, rocket engines, satellites, and world famous Ukraine-designed Zenit and Cyclone booster rockets. Since 1991, over 160 rockets and more than 370 spacecraft were launched with the participation of Ukraine, including Vega and Antares.

Ukraine is one of the few countries in the world that has a closed rocket production cycle, ranging from rocket fuel to airframes, launch vehicles and spacecraft. No wonder why president A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, who spoke highly of Ukraine’s rocket and space science contributions, took a trip to these institutions in Dnipro during his state visit in 2005. It is also no surprise that Elon Musk calls Zenit the best launch vehicle in the world after his Falcon. Just before the war in 2022, Space X launched the second-ever Ukrainian satellite, Sich 2.

War has put Ukraine on the brink, but people who hold up the sky never give up. Pivdenmash aspires to create a floating spaceport in the Kherson region, now partly occupied by Russia. Yuzhnoye’s dream is to set up a permanent base on the moon’s surface. Mriya, the dream, never dies.

Most aerospace enterprises continue to work and collect aid for the Ukrainians and the army. “With a fast-track entry into the European Union, Ukraine will develop the space industry in a couple of years,” says Daryna. “Let the war end. I need to get a kilo of coffee for the air defence guys, my husband’s friends. They stay awake 24/7 and let us have peaceful nights.”

Meanwhile, for Taras, the big news is: Mriya, the largest bird, will be reconstructed. While Russian missiles rain death on Ukrainians, he thinks his deceased dad and others are called by God to help hold up the sky. Bidding me goodbye, he says, “You should love your people, land and the sky more. More than you ever could. Then “Mriya” will never die.”

Mridula Ghosh formerly with the UN, is now based in Kyiv, teaching at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, and also leads an NGO.

former-indian-ambassador-to-sudan-deepak-vohra-guest-column

Sat Apr 29 09:09:55 IST 2023

LIVING IN KHARTOUM can be incredibly frustrating and exciting in equal measure. The facilities are limited, sharia constricts personal freedoms, the people are warm and friendly. I spent five years as India’s ambassador in Sudan, an unpredictable nation, and it was a truly amazing learning experience.

Who are the Sudanese?

Their identity is still forming through an ongoing historical process of tribal and regional amalgamation; parallel faultlines are just below the surface.

India has great brand equity in Sudan. We have given over $1 billion in soft loans for infrastructure projects.

I was posted in Sudan when a peace deal ended Africa’s longest running civil conflict (41 years), and when the African non-Muslim south voted to secede from the Arabised and heavily Islamic north. That conflict was less about religion and ethnicity than about resources and dignity.

Even as the war was winding down in the south, an insurrection began in 2003, in Darfur, pitting Arabised Muslims against African Muslims. An exhausted regime outsourced the conflict to a bunch of vicious Arab tribes, collectively known as the Janjaweed (roughly, warrior on a horse). They were authorised to rape, loot, plunder and abduct, and were led by a brute called Hamdan Dagalo, a former cattle herder, who was a darling of the then president. The army in Darfur was commanded by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, now the army chief and president.

The Janjaweed metamorphosed into what is grandly called the Rapid Support Forces, and became a kind of praetorian guard.

In 2008, Chad-backed rebels attacked Khartoum, the RSF fought them on the streets while the former president cowered in his basement and western diplomats sought refuge in India House.

In 2009, long-time dictator Omar Hassan al-Bashir, who became a close friend, was indicted by the International Criminal Court for genocide and war crimes. Tightening western sanctions since 1993 (when the US declared Sudan a state sponsor of terrorism) ruined the economy, inflation soared, the currency collapsed, agriculture declined, and industry froze. Inspired by the short-lived Arab Spring of 2011, people took to the streets in 2019, wanting the regime to go.

Upset with the government crackdown on unarmed civilians, and worried about its future repercussions on themselves, dearest friends Dagalo and al-Burhan got together to boot out Bashir and put him in jail, forming a hybrid civilian-military government headed by a civilian prime minister.

Two years later, the PM was kicked out and the two military fellows became the leaders of the country.

So why are they fighting?

It is about personality and property. al-Burhan tried to marginalise his erstwhile comrade and get sole control of the country’s natural resources like gold and oil, and reneged on his promise to integrate the RSF into the Sudanese military. Furious, Dagalo ordered his storm troopers into the streets of the capital and seized military bases, prompting the latter to use its air force to hit the RSF.

The two belligerents are very rich and have tens of thousands of fighters, foreign backers, and other resources. Like thousands of others, their families have studied or received medical assistance in India.

In an interview, Dagalo ranted that al-Burhan was a criminal who wanted to destroy the country and would be brought to justice or “die like any dog”. In fact, Dagalo only appeared on the national political scene four years ago. In that short time, he has drawn the army, and all of Sudan, into an unprecedented confrontation. It is a fight to the finish. Whoever wins will be the next president of Sudan, the loser will be jailed, exiled or killed. Such prolonged conflict has devastated other countries in the Middle East and Africa―from Lebanon and Syria to Libya and Ethiopia and Somalia.

What about the people?

Since its independence in January 1956, Sudan has seen long periods of military rule punctuated by some democratic interludes during which the politicians fought each other ferociously for power and pelf. Sick of the political shenanigans, Sudanese welcomed the military as a factor for stability. Over the years, the people have learned to live with adversity. There are grassroots networks of citizens in and around Khartoum tirelessly helping those caught in the crossfire. Much of this good work is led by young volunteers operating at local neighbourhood level in thousands of “resistance committees”. They were the backbone of the movement that called for a return to civilian rule.

The Indian community, mainly Gujaratis, many of whom have been in Sudan for generations, has a similar time-tested mutual support system. They may or may not want to leave their businesses.

Some so-called developed countries have evacuated their diplomats and officials. The UN has issued warnings and appeals that have failed to stop the violence. Sudan’s neighbours―Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya, Chad, the Central African Republic, Eritrea and South Sudan―have their own interests. None is a paragon of democracy. Egypt loves the Sudanese military. Saudi Arabia is buddies with the Rapid Support Forces who fought in the Saudi-led invasion of Yemen. Ethiopia wants Sudan to stop challenging the Grand Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile. Frenemy Chad has asked Sudan to stop meddling in its affairs.

Memories of the 2011 Arab Spring that booted out several dictators haunt the monarchies, and while they do want a peaceful and stable Sudan, they do not want it to be a seductive beacon of democracy in the region. That is the hard reality.

The US has announced another 72-hour ceasefire, but neither side seems to be observing it. Saudi Arabia and Jordan have evacuated their citizens, and some Indian nationals, among others.

India has already started moving its people who wish to leave out of Port Sudan on the Red Sea, under Operation Kaveri. We have done it in Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Yemen, South Sudan, Ukraine under the direct supervision of our leaders. Our diplomats will be the last to get out. That is the true strength of Indian diplomacy and our diplomats.

Vohra is an Indian Foreign Service officer of the 1973 batch.

new-york-city-mayor-eric-adams-interview

Thu Apr 27 10:46:38 IST 2023

In the comic book universe, Gotham City and Metropolis are safeguarded by masked superheroes, superpowers, but in real life, New York City, on which these fictional cities are based, is under the charge of its 110th mayor, Eric L. Adams. An unlikely superhero, he has taken on all monsters―be it Covid-19, crime, inequality, financial downturns, racism and other evils that imperil a big city. He has brought New York back from the brink.

Adams, 62, has battled adversity; he and five siblings were brought up by a single mother who cleaned homes to make a living. From having battled dyslexia to making it to the dean’s list, Adams has seen both sides of life, and managed to transform outcomes.

Arrested and beaten as a teenager, he went on to combat injustice by joining the police force and rose to the rank of captain. As a founder of 100 Blacks in Law Enforcement Who Care, he worked on changing the system from within. Adams later became a state senator and was the first person of colour to chair the senate’s homeland security committee. In 2013, he was elected president of the Brooklyn borough, and while working to bring diverse groups together, public policy and good government became his mantra.

Adams is all about taking creative action to solve problems. When he temporarily went blind in one eye and was told he had type 2 diabetes, he took radical action, transforming his diet and losing 35 pounds.

It is said that when Adams was growing up in Jamaica, Queens, he would often carry a plastic bag of belongings with him for he never knew if he may be returning to an eviction notice on their home.

As mayor-elect, one of his first acts was to nominate five deputy mayors―all of them women, and two of them of Asian heritage (Meera Joshi is his deputy mayor for operations).

Affordable housing is an acute problem in New York City but Adams says he has set “a moonshot goal of building five lakh new homes for New Yorkers over the next decade―and to achieve this goal we must fight for new housing, new zoning, and innovation.” This entails out-of-the-box thinking in converting office space lying vacant after the pandemic into apartments for daily living, keeping the business districts vibrant.

Searching for bold and creative ways to solve the problems of a big city seems to be the mantra of Adams. Excerpts from an exclusive interview:

Q You have often been called the Hindu mayor because of your affinity with all faiths. Good Hindus are supposed to love all religions, all people. Do you believe these are universal ideas, that more people should be adopting?

A Yes, I believe the universal principle of being kind, of being just, of being benevolent is more than just actually being a loyal worshipper―being a practitioner. That’s why I say the city should be a city where God is present. No matter how you define God, no matter what way―be it the Buddha, through meditation, breathing; or if it’s through Christ, Jehovah, any of the deities that are worshipped in different philosophies.

When I sit inside a Sikh temple, when I sit inside a synagogue or church or mosque, I still feel that universal principle of kindness, of justice, of caring, of leaving that place of worship and going out and fulfilling our obligation as spiritual beings. We are not human beings in a spiritual place. We are spiritual beings in a human place. And we need to continue to manifest that spirituality.

Q As a former police officer, one of your campaign plans has been decreasing the crime rate, and that has happened. But while the shootings and homicides have decreased, the assaults and robberies have risen.

A When we came into office, we saw an over proliferation of guns, homicides and shootings. That was our primary focus―to make sure that we put in place the right police personnel to go after those guns. We took and removed over 8,000 guns off the street since I’ve been the mayor. We saw shootings go down, we saw murders go down. But we have also seen something else: we are seeing robberies go down.

Our subways have become safer because of our subway safety plan. Our customer satisfaction surveys are showing that people are feeling safer on our system. They see the presence of police.

We announced recently that we are asking Kia and Hyundai to get a better safety system and we are encouraging people to get their safety system installed in cars. Crime is going down, jobs are coming up and that is what we are committed to.

Q What do you say about New York City’s financial forecast? What is the post-Covid recovery plan being implemented?

A It starts with efficiency. We went to our agencies when I first took office and stated we must do what everyday taxpayers are doing. And make sure we balance the budget of our house, which are our agencies, like everyday taxpayers are balancing the budget of their homes.

You know, my mother used to say, this is the amount of money that comes in. This is the rent, and if we are going to spend something over what was taken in, we need to decide what we are going to take off the list. And that’s what we’re telling all our agencies. We did something called the peg program to eliminate the gap, told the agencies to look for efficiencies.

We did two rounds of that. And we are going to have to do another round because, unexpectedly, we were hit with a $4.2 billion bill from our asylum seekers. That money was not factored into how we’re going to deal with our budget crisis. Add that to the fiscal clip of the money we were receiving from the federal government which is going to run out next year. There is going to be some pain. But we’re not going to do away with services, we’re not going to do layoffs. We’re just going to find those efficiencies within our agencies.

Q What else are you implementing for the city?

A We are really focusing on continued safety as we cycle out of Covid-19. All of us would admit that it caused serious mental health issues and we must address those issues. The number of suicides among young people has increased; the number of drug overdoses has increased. We’re looking at young people having a particularly hard time post-Covid. But we also want to look at our ageing population. Loneliness is really a part of the social determinants of health, and so we want to make sure we care for our older adults.

Our focus is on housing. And so in dealing with our mental health crisis, and continuing to make our city a safe city as we encourage people to come here, and we’re seeing financial success―99 per cent of all jobs we lost pre-pandemic―roughly 9,58,000―are back.

We are also seeing new companies come here and open shop. JP Morgan is opening a new corporate headquarters. We’re seeing Pfizer, and we’re leaning into biotech on 11th avenue and on first avenue. So there’s real excitement.

Tourism is up: 56 million tourists―we are predicting 65 million this year, which is a major economic boost for us. People are back on the streets, you’re seeing them back in our restaurants, and Broadway is up and operating. So, we’re excited. Financial recovery is going to be a difficult one but we know we’ve done it before, in 2008. We did it before that in 2001 and we know that this city is resilient.

Q The Indian-American community has been delighted that you are championing the cause of Diwali as a school holiday.

A You know, there are levels to bring in the success of the Diwali holiday home. The first level was to find a date that we could trade off with. And we did that. The chancellor and I, and many others, we all agreed to look at what was called Brooklyn-Queens Day, and trade that off for the Diwali holiday, because there were no more days on the books. The state law requires the department of education to have a certain number of school days, and we had the maximum amount of holidays and days off, but we were able to creatively come up with the trade-off.

We presented it to the state lawmakers helped by the amazing work of Jenifer Rajkumar [member, New York state assembly] to move this forward. And now it is up to the state lawmakers to actually vote on the change of moving it from the Brooklyn-Queens Day to a Diwali holiday. We’re hoping they do it this session but is still in negotiation.

Melwani is a New York-based journalist who blogs at Lassi with Lavina.

https://www.lassiwithlavina.com/

how-uk-is-grappling-with-economic-and-humanitarian-crisis

Fri Apr 14 13:52:30 IST 2023

OVERCAST SKIES, low temperatures and frequent showers make it feel like the English winter is dragging its feet, refusing to make way for spring. High-street clothing stores sport spring collections in shades of lavender, pastel pink and teal, but on the streets, people are covered in long coats, dark bomber jackets, and woollen caps and scarves.

The bleak weather somewhat reflects the general mood in the country. Though the coronation of King Charles is less than a month away, there is no festive feel in the air.

Instead, politicians and the public are preoccupied with a multitude of challenges, particularly double-digit inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.

In recent months, the country has witnessed strikes the likes of which have not been seen in 40 years. Teachers, public transport staff, postal workers, nurses, doctors and border staff, among others, are demanding higher pay and better working conditions. The fallout of Brexit and Covid-19 had hit them hard.

The economic crisis has also exacerbated two inter-linked problems: homelessness and excessive migration.

Official figures released in February showed that homelessness in England had risen by 26 per cent in a year, because of the “spiralling cost-of-living crisis”.

Following the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there has been a massive influx of refugees into the UK.

Currently, around 9,000 Afghan refugees are staying in hotels in the country. On March 28, the government announced it would move the refugees into permanent homes on the condition that they accept the first property offered to them. If they did not, they would not be given an alternative. This has led to concerns that a bulk of the refugees, half of them children, will end up homeless.

As for Ukrainians, the UK, in 2022, welcomed more than 1.6 lakh refugees under various schemes that gave them housing in homes and hotels, and allowed them access to schools, health care, social welfare schemes and the right to work, for a stipulated time period.

Under the Homes for Ukraine scheme, thousands of UK sponsors agreed to house refugees for a minimum of six months. Now, as their placements end, many face homelessness as they struggle with finding jobs, rising costs, overcrowding and a shortage of rental properties. According to data released in February, more than 1,100 Ukrainian households had become homeless in London alone. On March 12, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the UK was “spending ￡5.5 million a day plus on hotels”, referring to the purported lodging costs of asylum seekers, indicating that sustaining these payments was untenable. In recent months, there have been numerous protests and counter-protests outside these lodgings, leading to a growing anti-immigration movement in the country.

Adding to this is the surge in the number of illegal migrants arriving by boat. These migrants are being blamed for overstretched public services, strained infrastructure, eating into benefits, and for making it harder for Britons to find jobs.

Sunak has made cracking down on illegal migration one of his government’s top priorities, emphasising that it will protect British jobs and the economy, and free up resources for citizens and legal residents.

On March 7, the government announced the Illegal Migration or the ‘Stop the Boats’ bill, which will change the law so that those arriving illegally will be detained and promptly removed either to their home country or to a safe third country.

Furthermore, on March 10, Britain and France signed a new deal where the former will fund the latter to deploy hundreds of extra French law enforcement officers along the English Channel coast to stop illegal migration.

Sunak’s strong anti-immigration stance has caused a stir, especially as he himself is a son of immigrants. Moreover, the ‘Stop the Boats’ bill has been widely criticised for being cruel, with critics saying it goes against international law and will end up in court if pushed through parliament.

Post Brexit, however, the UK is at liberty to frame its own laws and exert greater control over its borders. It can also implement stricter measures to restrict the flow of illegal migrants from EU member states.

Whether or not the bill becomes law remains to be seen, but for the moment, local councils and charities are warning of a looming humanitarian crisis.

On March 28, 54 charities and organisations signed an open letter to the Secretary of State for Housing Michael Gove, expressing deep concern about the impact of the bill on homelessness and destitution in the UK. “Alarmingly, the Illegal Migration Bill looks set to create an entirely new homeless and precariously housed population, increasing the likeliness of people rough sleeping on our streets and in our communities,” read the letter. It also stated that it would clearly undermine the government’s manifesto commitment to end rough sleeping by 2024.

Will the upcoming coronation and brighter, warmer days lighten the mood?

On April 4, the invitation for the coronation was released. To celebrate the new reign, it has a motif of the Green Man, an ancient figure from British folklore, symbolic of spring and a new birth. Britons will be hoping the same applies to their lives, too.