BJP’s performance in assembly polls would define contours of national politics

PTI05-08-2020_000179B UP for grabs: Prime Minister Narendra Modi with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Aditynath in Ayodhya last year | PTI

While an impressive victory in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 marked the beginning of an era of the BJP’s dominance in Indian politics, it was the saffron party’s spectacular show in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 2017 that triggered an all-out attempt to push its ideological agenda. The party won 312 of 403 seats in the state, setting the tone for another thumping victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Now, just about six months remain for the assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, and the results will define the contours of the country’s politics in the next few years.

Assembly elections will also be held in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur in 2022. These states account for 102 Lok Sabha seats. Later in the year, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat will go to polls.

Interestingly, these elections will be a test for four first-time BJP chief ministers—Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh, Pushkar Singh Dhami in Uttarakhand, Pramod Sawant in Goa and N. Biren Singh in Manipur. Unlike the Lok Sabha elections, most assembly elections since 2014 have been tricky for the BJP, especially in states where it was in power. It either lost them or came back with a diminished mandate—or with the help of turncoats.

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP struggled to deal with the disgruntlement that followed the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, and the restiveness in certain castes and communities in the state. After a series of meetings and detailed discussions between party leaderships in Delhi and Lucknow, a course correction was initiated—from giving representation to 20 different OBC communities in the Union cabinet to reaching out to other groups. On the insistence of the central leadership, BJP state president Swatantra Dev Singh has been filling vacancies in the organisation at a frenetic pace.

The BJP has been reaching out to various communities and opinion-makers in the state. It started meetings early this month to engage with writers, intellectuals and professionals. The party hopes to overcome anti-incumbency through such meetings, and to pacify Brahmins, who have been miffed with the Adityanath government.

Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party was the first to hold an outreach meeting with Brahmins, in Ayodhya in July. Alok Awasthi, the spokesperson for the BJP, said his party’s meetings were not caste-specific. “Key people from all fields are invited and made aware of the work done by Modi ji and Yogi ji. These meetings will be held in all 75 districts of the state and addressed by senior leaders from the state including the CM, deputy CMs, state president and organisation secretary,” he said. These meetings will be followed by sammelans for the OBCs. The party is trying to wean the non-Yadav OBCs off the Samajwadi Party and the non-Jatav dalits off the BSP.

Akhilesh Yadav’s SP has emerged as the BJP’s key challenger in the state, as the party won majority seats in the panchayat polls. The BJP has trouble at hand in western Uttar Pradesh, where farmers are agitating against the new laws. The party had reaped the rewards of communal polarisation in the region after the 2013 riots in Muzaffarnagar. However, the Jat farmer leader Rakesh Tikait chanting ‘Allahu Akbar’ and ‘Har Har Mahadev’ in the same breath might mean a change in the equations.

The entry of Asaduddin Owaisi has complicated things further. His AIMIM is planning to contest the elections in alliance with the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and the Azad Samaj Party of dalit leader Chandra Shekhar Azad. It may spell trouble for opposition parties as this alliance will eat into their vote share.

The BJP’s modus operandi in Uttarakhand is likely to be the same as that in Uttar Pradesh. “We will hold intellectual sammelans, women meets, OBC sammelans, Vidhan Sabha sammelans and booth sammelans to prep up our cadre and voters,” said Uttarakhand state BJP chief Madan Kaushik.

The voters, however, seem confused as it saw three chief ministers in a year owing to the BJP’s internal politics. Kaushik, however, does not see any problem. “Elections are fought on manifestos,” he said. “We have fulfilled all the promises. The 21-year-old state has a 45-year-old CM. Our focus is on the youth. Dhami is a young face and people are liking him.”

Among the five states going to the polls early next year, the biggest challenge for the BJP is in Punjab; it is also its biggest opportunity. It will fight in all 117 seats on its own for the first time, as the Shiromani Akali Dal walked out of the NDA last year. It does not stand a chance in the Sikh-majority constituencies, especially after the way it dealt with the farmer agitations. The party will focus on Hindu-dominated seats, and it has nuanced its strategy by speaking in favour of dalits and OBCs, who, despite forming a significant chunk of the population, have never been politically strong.

“The BJP is looking at the big slice of the voters who have not been partaking in political parties, be it the dalits or OBCs. They are frustrated that they don’t have a role in building Punjab,” said BJP state president Ashwini Sharma.

Sharma does not see much in the infighting in the Congress. “It is a fixed match. They are following a written script,” he said. “The government has not been able to do anything on issues on which it came to power. Now, they are trying to pin all the blame on Chief Minister Amarinder Singh and become martyrs in the process. They want to go to people with the same issues. But they will not succeed.”

The Aam Aadmi Party, however, seems to be cashing in on the situation, as it is trying to emerge as a key force in Punjab and Uttarakhand. It also fancies a chance in Goa, where the BJP has been in power for 10 years.

In Goa, the BJP finished behind the Congress in the elections in 2017, but retained power with the help of defectors. It will be a challenge for Sawant to improve upon the current tally of 28, which also includes 13 defected Congress MLAs. “We have given a stable government,” said Goa state BJP chief Sadanand Tanavade. “A stable government is our USP.”

Like Goa, the Congress lost Manipur by a whisker in 2017. Former Congress leader N. Biren Singh, who switched sides to the BJP, is its first CM in the state. The BJP installed a woman party president, Sharda Devi, in the state to cash in on the women voters who have proved crucial in many an election. “The elections will be fought on the work done by the state and the Centre,” said Devi.

The assembly elections in early 2022 will be a semifinal for the Narendra Modi government before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It remains to be seen if the BJP can continue its winning streak.

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