Triple strike

BJP hopes to seize the initiative with the release of the Abdullahs

14-Omar Abdullah Savouring freedom: Former chief minister Omar Abdullah walks to his father Farooq Abdullah’s residence after being released from detention | Umer Asif

On March 12, the Jammu and Kashmir government revoked the Public Safety Act invoked against former chief minister and National Conference president Farooq Abdullah. It happened with just two days remaining in Farooq’s second three-month detention at his Srinagar home. He was among the more than 50 political leaders, including former chief ministers Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, who were detained after the revocation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir. On March 24, Omar Abdullah, too, was released from custody.

Farooq expressed gratitude for his release, but he said he would not answer questions or make any political statements till all detainees were released.

While the release of Farooq and Omar has made their family and supporters happy, it has come as a big challenge to the NC. The political situation in the state is in a flux. Many of the senior leaders of the Peoples Democratic Party have moved beyond Article 370 and have set up the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party under the leadership of Syed Altaf Bukhari. But the NC’s cadre and leadership are largely intact. Ironically, it has placed an added burden on the party. Kashmiris are waiting to see whether the NC will play hardball with the Centre on the question of autonomy or fall in line for the sake of power like it has done in the past.

The BJP aims to use the Apni Party as a hedge against the NC and the PDP.
The delimitation exercise for Jammu and Kashmir will be based on the 2011 Census, unlike other states which use the 2001 Census.

Farooq is mindful of people’s sensitivities. On March 15, he issued a statement requesting the Centre to bring back all detainees held in prisons outside Kashmir. He said compared with hundreds of Kashmiri families, he was more fortunate as he was detained at home and his family could meet him. For many others, it has not been as easy as they have had to spend huge amounts to visit their loved ones. And, the situation has worsened because of the health risk caused by the coronavirus.

Farooq’s release came a month after former Research & Analysis Wing chief A.S. Dulat visited him in prison. Although Dulat said the meeting was personal, it could not have happened without the approval of the Union government. Dulat said Farooq would respond if the Centre engaged with him. But many political leaders, including those from the NC, believe that Article 370 is history and the only remaining possibility is about restoring Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood. The disarray in the PDP, the formation of the Apni Party and the fact that the local Congress unit passed a resolution asking for the restoration of statehood while remaining silent on reinstating Article 370 have made the NC’s task all the more difficult.

When the Narendra Modi government decided to scrap Article 370, the two main challenges it foresaw were the threat of violence and the impending political vacuum. The first was handled by imposing a lockdown and by detaining scores of people and political leaders. The second challenge still remains, but the BJP hopes that Bukhari will succeed in making an impression among the electorate. He has announced that autonomy and self-rule are not his agenda as he remains focused on issues like development, employment and land rights.

“Our sole aim is to strive for development and also for the politics of truth,” said Bukhari. “The issue of Article 370 is pending before the Supreme Court. If I do not accept its abrogation, will the decision change? We must wait for the Supreme Court’s decision,” he said. Modi met an Apni Party delegation on March 14, and discussed issues such as restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood, development of the Union territory, return of the Kashmiri Pandits, grant of domicile, delimitation exercise and demographic change in Kashmir.

Bukhari, a wealthy businessman with a degree in agriculture sciences, said he waited for seven months after the revocation of Article 370, expecting political parties like the NC and the PDP to talk about problems faced by the people. “Political parties do not cease to exist after their leaders are arrested,’’ said Bukhari. “My voice is going to be relevant in the times to come.”

Abdul Majeed Padder, who joined the Apni Party after he was expelled by the PDP, said he switched parties because he wanted to do something for the people. “There has been no contact with the people as we were under detention,’’ he said. “ Now, I will go out and meet them.” Former PDP MLA Noor Mohammed Sheikh said he would first explain to his constituents why he joined the new party. “I will be honest with them. I will talk only about things that I can deliver,’’ he said. “I used to operate from a government quarters where people would come and meet me. I have been evicted from there. I will now be operating from home.” Noor Muhammad Baba, who was head of the political science department at Kashmir University, said if the Apni Party came to power, there would be some communication between the people and the politicians. “Political activity in Jammu and Kashmir is dead and the bureaucracy is running the government. The common man has had no or limited access after the abrogation of Article 370,” said Baba. But he wondered whether Bukhari would be able to fill the political vacuum in Jammu and Kashmir. Rekha Chowdhary, who was professor of political science at Jammu University, said Bukhari and his supporters would have to work very hard to convince the people of their agenda. “These individuals cannot achieve much without support from the cadre. It will take time for them to establish themselves,” she said.

The BJP and the Union government, however, have found a handy ally in Bukhari. An NC leader said Bukhari’s party was set up to silence critics of the BJP. “It was launched to create a feeling that the people supported the BJP and that the NC and the PDP were no longer relevant.’’ The BJP aims to use Bukhari as a hedge against the NC and the PDP. BJP leaders know that Kashmir-based parties will be reluctant to have any future alliance with the party after the failure of its coalition with the PDP.

Shifting loyalties: Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a delegation of the Apni Party led by Altaf Bukhari | PTI Shifting loyalties: Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a delegation of the Apni Party led by Altaf Bukhari | PTI

After having successfully pushed its ideological agenda in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP has set in motion the delimitation process in the Union territory. On March 6, the Union law ministry notified the constitution of a delimitation commission for assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Nagaland. Once the process is complete, the number of assembly seats in Jammu and Kashmir will increase from 107 to 114 (including the 25 seats earmarked for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir).

The delimitation exercise for Jammu and Kashmir will be based on the 2011 Census, unlike other states which use the 2001 Census. The change was made through an amendment introduced in the J&K Reorganisation Act, 2019, passed by Parliament last year. The BJP expects that under the delimitation exercise, the number of seats in Jammu will go up, leading to greater political empowerment of Hindus in the only Muslim majority part of the country. And, when statehood is restored, Jammu is likely to be in a much better position politically, compared with Kashmir.

The NC, the PDP and other Kashmiri political parties seem to have realised what is happening, but there is hardly anything that they can do given the power the BJP wields. And, that makes it nearly impossible for them to engage with the Centre on their own terms. Moreover, the lockdown imposed by the government to tackle the coronavirus pandemic has further worsened the political and economic crisis in Kashmir. Given the gravity of the crisis, political activity by the NC and other parties is likely to be delayed further.