Lok Sabha polls: It's a three-cornered fight in Thiruvananthapuram

One is a global citizen. The other is a “katta local” (extremely local). The third one is an epitome of simplicity, almost like a sanyasi. All eyes are on the three Lok Sabha candidates from the Thiruvananthapuram constituency—Shashi Tharoor of the Congress, C. Divakaran of the CPI and Kummanam Rajasekharan of the BJP. For, if—and that is a big if—the BJP opens its account in Kerala, it would be from the capital city. And, that makes the contest in Thiruvananthapuram nationally significant.

Tharoor, called vishwa pouran (global citizen) adoringly by his admirers and mockingly by his opponents, is certainly the “star” among the contestants. While the former international civil servent knows how to work his charm on the voters, he rarely tries to be one of them and gives an impression that voters should feel honoured to be represented by him. But, that could be because Malayalam does not come easily to him. Take, for instance, his address to onlookers who had gathered at a local market in Parassala. “I am willing to be your representative. I will ensure that your voice is heard in the Indian Parliament through me,” he said in a heavily accented Malayalam. But, Gandhariyamma, 55, a vegetable vendor, was thoroughly impressed. “I will vote for him. He is a big man,” she said, admiringly. And, it is a sentiment shared by many women across the constituency.

Tharoor’s popularity, however, seems to be on the wane. His victory margin had thinned from 99,998 votes in 2009 to 15,470 votes in 2014. It was only because of the support in the Christian-dominated coastal belt that he barely managed to defeat BJP’s O. Rajagopal. That, too, despite the CPI fielding an insignificant candidate—Dr Bennet Abraham.

This time though, a prominent face from the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is in the fray. CPI’s Divakaran, sitting MLA from Nedumangad, is the only one among the three candidates who was born and raised in Thiruvananthapuram. He knows every rickshaw driver by name in and around the city, said G. Rajan, a CPI member. And, Divakaran is using his local identity against Tharoor’s international stature. “I may not be a universal citizen, but I have been one among you for all these years. You know me inside out,” he told a small gathering in Kazhakoottam.

Divakaran also has the advantage of being the only candidate from the Ezhava community (a prominent backward caste), while the other two are from the Nair community. But, there is a flip side to voters knowing him inside out—they are aware that he was one of the three leaders removed from the party’s state executive committee for backing the candidature of Abraham, who reportedly paid for the seat, in 2014.

However, the CPI(M), unlike the last time, is rallying behind Divakaran. “We will ensure that not a single vote from the left goes to any other candidate,” said Raveendranath C.K., a CPI(M) leader.

And, that would be music to the BJP’s ears. It had lost the seat in 2014 primarily because of cross voting by left supporters in Tharoor’s favour. “If Congress supporters vote for Tharoor and the CPI(M) cadre vote for Divakaran, then Kummanam will win,” said D. Vijayan, an RSS leader in Vattiyoorkavu.

Kummanam, who resigned as governor of Mizoram to contest the polls, stands out among the three with his personal integrity, and the BJP is playing it up. “Unlike Tharoor, who is under suspicion for the death of his wife [Sunanda Pushkar], and Divakaran, who is corrupt, Kummanamji is a man of ethics. He is just like you and me,” came the announcement ahead of his visit. Kummanam’s speeches, too, are on similar lines. “I am no star. I am a commoner. I will always be there for you all,” he said. He also taunts the Congress for its “Pakistan connection” and the CPI(M) for its “China connection”.

The word Sabarimala, however, is missing from the poll narrative, thanks to the Election Commission directive. But, both Tharoor and Kummanam talk at length about “the importance of protecting faith” in their speeches. The Sabarimala agitation had found strong resonance in Thiruvananthapuram, with its strong forward caste Hindu voter base. And, the Congress and the BJP hope to capitalise on the general mood against the left government for facilitating the entry of women of all ages into the shrine following the Supreme Court verdict. The BJP thinks that it has an edge over the Congress in this matter. “The BJP was at the forefront to fight the atheists, while people know that the Congress was just fishing in troubled waters,” said A. Satyaprakash, a BJP leader.

Kummanam, with the RSS’s backing, has hit the ground running. The Nair votes and the Hindu Nadar votes—traditionally aligned with the Congress—are likely to go to Kummanam this time. So, he is expected to gain traction in four assembly constituencies—Nemom, Kazhakoottam, Vattiyoorkavu and Thiruvananthapuram. “The voters of Thiruvananthapuram know me,” he told THE WEEK. “Also, they realise that both the Congress and the left have hoodwinked them all this time.”

Tharoor, on the other hand, expects majority in the Kovalam, Neyyattinkara and Parassala assembly constituencies. He seems unfazed by Kummanam’s rising popularity. “Every election is tough. Last election was tougher. I am very confident this time,” he told THE WEEK. He is also optimistic about getting the significant Nair votes, which is why he can be seen making regular temple runs. Moreover, posters of a smiling Tharoor sharing space with his book, Why I am a Hindu, are on display across the constituency. He also hopes to get a major chunk of the Christian, Muslim and Nadar votes. But, the Latin Catholic vote, another solid vote bank of the Congress, could be divided, as Archbishop M. Soosa Pakiam has not yet taken a public stand. And, that bodes ill for Tharoor. But, he will get the votes of the Muslim community almost en bloc.

Tharoor’s greatest asset is his professionally run office that works round the clock. Anybody can contact him through email, and his office would ensure that the complaint is addressed at the earliest. Through this network, he has earned a lot of personal goodwill. He helped bring the Nissan IT hub to Technopark. His mediator role in making Vizhinjam port a reality is also appreciated, even by the opposition parties, as was his role as an MP during the Ockhi cyclone disaster. But, many people, including Congress MLAs, are upset that he is rarely seen in Thiruvananthapuram. And, Divakaran is cashing in on that. “I also know to speak about international affairs. But what is the use of all this international talk if the MP is never available in the constituency,” he told THE WEEK.

Another factor that could work against Tharoor is the lack of support from the state party organisation. He also lost a solid campaigner and organiser when Vattiyoorkavu MLA K. Muraleedharan shifted base to Vadakara as a Lok Sabha candidate. He can, however, find solace in the fact that he won in 2014 at the height of the controversy around Pushkar’s death. “He has always won because of his personal charisma. Last time, too, there was no party machinery behind him,” said Satyasheelan R., a Congress member.

But, both the left and the Congress secretly admit to a possibility of Kummanam winning the polls. And, the Congress is aware that if that happens, it will be at its cost. Ironically, the Congress leadership is pinning its hopes on the CPI(M) to avoid such an eventuality. “It is unlikely that Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan will allow a BJP candidate to win from the capital city. It will be such a shame for him,” said a Congress MLA, hinting at the possibility of a last-minute transfer of votes to Tharoor.