01 BJP gets brute majority
Should the BJP improve its 2014 tally of 282 seats in the Lok Sabha, it would mean that the electorate has reposed faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi to complete his unfinished agenda—building the Ram Temple, removing Articles 35A and 370, implementing the education policy and National Register of Citizenship (depending on the mandate in Assam) and holding simultaneous elections. It would mean that Rahul Gandhi’s attacks on the prime minister had no effect, while Modi’s jibes at former prime ministers paid off.
Such a majority would be possible if the BJP makes gains in states like West Bengal and Odisha, and in the northeast and south. These gains would come at the cost of decimation of regional parties, reducing the role of satraps.
The brute majority would also mean new cabinet members. Amit Shah may get the defence or home affairs portfolio. Unencumbered by the pressure to prove himself, Modi would be expected to undertake bolder reforms and leave his mark in the history books.
02 BJP falls short of majority
This scenario is pregnant with possibilities. This would mean that the BJP suffered losses in the Hindi heartland states where it holds all-time high numbers. If the NDA crosses the halfway mark, it would mean business as usual. Modi would return as prime minister.
If the NDA wins around 250 seats, the saffron party-led coalition would look to outsiders like the Biju Janata Dal, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi and the YSR Congress. The dependence on allies outside the NDA would require Modi to give in to their demands, and ensure greater flexibility in devising policy. Drastic steps like demonetisation and implementation of GST would now have to be done in consultation with the allies.
It may also have an impact on assembly elections. The manner in which the Congress or the regional outfits dent the BJP’s numbers in the Lok Sabha polls would matter in the state elections.
03 NDA ahead, but way short of majority
All hell could break loose within the BJP. The margdarshak mandal (group of mentors), which has fallen silent and was denied tickets, may demand action against those responsible. Questions will be raised as to the way the party was run by just Modi and Shah.
Such a scenario demands that the BJP sit in the opposition. It would see the emergence of Rahul Gandhi as giant killer. Modi has never tasted defeat nor sat in the opposition since he became Gujarat chief minister.
An unstable coalition government may come into being, just like in Karnataka, the allies pulling in different directions and allowing the BJP to convince the voters that they made a mistake. The key issue would be the longevity of the government.
04 UPA gets majority
The Congress would have to win at least 200 seats, which would require a high strike rate in the states where it is still a force. The party would have to get the better of the BJP in states where they are locked in a direct fight, such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh. It would also require the Congress’s alliance partners in Maharashtra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka to do well.
The government would be led by the Congress, with the likelihood of Rahul Gandhi occupying the prime minister’s chair. The DMK, the Congress’s biggest ally, has already proposed Rahul for prime ministership, as has its Bihar partner Rashtriya Janata Dal. Others are also expected to fall in line.
The Congress will spare itself the uneasy situation of having to deal with ambitious regional figures such as BSP supremo Mayawati and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee.
05 UPA becomes largest group sans majority
In this case, the role of nonaligned regional players—the gathbandhan in Uttar Pradesh, the TMC, the TRS and the YSR Congress—will decide whether the UPA forms the government.
The Congress will have to deal with regional leaders who have their own prime ministerial ambitions and an uneasy relationship with the national party. The BSP and SP, like on previous occasions, might provide the UPA with outside support.
If the Congress is unable to get at least 140 seats, Rahul Gandhi might not want to be the prime minister. Someone else from the party could get the post. But it is unlikely that the Congress would repeat the Karnataka model of government, where despite having greater numbers, it allowed the Janata Dal (Secular) to get the chief minister’s post.
06 Rise of the third front
Several strong regional players have given the impression that they will have an important role to play in Delhi after May 23. Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik and Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy have not aligned themselves with either the UPA or the NDA. The left parties are usually a natural participant in any effort towards formation of a third front.
The emergence of such a bloc cannot be ruled out—in 2014, these parties together won more seats than the UPA. However, they would require the backing of the Congress, most likely in the form of outside support. An agreement on who would occupy the prime minister’s chair is likely to be a long-drawn out affair, considering that most of these leaders have their own prime ministerial ambitions. Also, getting Mamata and the left parties on a common platform will not be easy.