The Week

as-savvy-investors-seek-new-avenues-thematic-mutual-funds-are-gaining-popularity

Sat Sep 21 11:45:01 IST 2024

Mutual funds have taken off in a big way in the past few years. The surge started when central banks slashed interest rates during the Covid-19 pandemic, making investors chasing high returns turn to capital markets, either investing directly or via mutual funds. Interestingly, this phenomenon has survived the high interest rate phase of the past two years, and more and more investors are investing in equity now.

The latest data from Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI), says average assets managed by the Indian mutual fund industry was Rs66.04 lakh crore in August 2024, a 40 per cent jump over August 2023 when it was Rs46.94 lakh crore. Equity-oriented schemes now account for about 60 per cent of the industry assets, up from 52.7 per cent in August 2023.

Between January and August 2024, the total net inflow into equity mutual funds has been around 02.48 lakh crore. Just in August, some 64 lakh new systematic investment plans (SIP) were registered and the monthly SIP contribution hit a new high of Rs23,547.34 crore. While August was the 42nd consecutive month of positive equity inflows, one category of funds seems to have attracted a lot of interest this year―sectoral/thematic funds.

Sectoral funds are equity mutual funds that focus on businesses operating within a specific industry, like technology, health care, defence, energy, automobile, or financial services. There are funds that focus on specific themes like consumption, manufacturing, infrastructure or clean energy as well.

Such funds have received around Rs1.03 lakh crore in net inflows between January and August. What is driving this huge interest?

On the one hand, many savvy investors are seeking newer investment ideas. On the other, India’s economy is growing and government policies are opening up opportunities for newer sectors. That has driven the fund houses to launch more such funds targeting sectors and themes. “The mutual fund industry is thriving, riding the wave of opportunities across the Indian economy; hence we are seeing thematic and sectoral launches looking to capitalise on emerging opportunities and trends,” said D.P. Singh, deputy managing director and joint CEO of SBI Mutual Fund.

SBI MF is the country’s largest asset manager with average assets under management (AUM) of over 09.88 lakh crore in the April-June quarter. The fund house has launched several sectoral NFOs (new fund offerings) this year, the latest being the SBI Innovative Opportunities Fund, towards the end of July. The idea behind this fund was to invest in equity and equity-related instruments of companies that seek to benefit from the adoption of innovative strategies and themes. In February, SBI MF launched the energy opportunities fund and in May, the automotive opportunities fund.

“In an economy like India which is still evolving, opportunities exist across the spectrum with new industries mushrooming,” said Singh. “Today, for example, EVs are growing, as the ecosystem around will evolve with technological advancements. So energy as a theme is a big opportunity. There are similar opportunities across industries, and we will launch more funds if necessary.”

Several other fund houses have also cashed in on this sectoral theme. In August, for instance, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC launched the defence index fund, aiming to take advantage of the growing defence sector. Axis Mutual Fund has launched the Axis Consumption Fund, aiming to provide a diversified portfolio that reflects the broad spectrum of consumption-driven sectors like fast moving consumer goods, auto, telecom, real estate and health care.

“As our aspirations grow and spending power increases, companies in this space are positioned for sustained growth,” said Ashish Gupta, chief investment officer of Axis AMC. “The Axis Consumption Fund offers investors the opportunity to participate in this unfolding trend and aims to build a robust portfolio that captures this dynamic growth.”

Some themes did quite well in the past year. Mahesh Patil, chief investment officer at Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, said that PSU (public sector undertaking), defence, auto and energy had given excellent returns, thus creating more interest in themes.

It is worth noting that in order to bring uniformity, the Securities and Exchange Board of India in 2017 issued clear definitions for each fund category like large cap, small cap, mid cap and multi cap. As per the regulator’s guidelines, a fund house can have only one scheme in each category, although there are exceptions like index funds or exchange traded funds and sectoral/thematic funds. With most large fund houses already having schemes in the key categories, thematic funds and even index funds have offered new growth opportunities.

“From a mutual funds side, these are the only areas where you can add new products. Most mutual funds already have products in the traditional baskets. That is also fuelling new launches and the excitement in the thematic side,” said Patil.

Investing in thematic and sectoral funds, however, comes with several risks that investors need to keep in mind. “If you are evaluating sector and thematic funds, there are five challenges to be addressed. Performance is cyclical, timing is difficult, cost of mistiming is very high, unlike diversified funds, a ‘buy and hold’ approach may not work, and even if you get everything right, you are likely to be under-allocated,” said Jiral Mehta, senior research analyst at FundsIndia.

Many investors look at the performance of 1-2 years and then make their investment choices accordingly. But, they must remember that sectors do go through their cycles and what delivered last year may not deliver this year.

For instance, infrastructure mutual funds delivered anywhere between 61 per cent to 75 per cent over the past one year. But there have also been years when they delivered negative returns. In 2018, their annualised returns were negative 15-25 per cent. Many funds in the infra space had gained traction just before the 2008 global financial crisis. But after stellar returns initially, many of them went through a phase between 2008-14 where even their three-year and in some cases even five-year trailing returns were negative.

As far as sectoral or thematic funds go, one should stick to actively managed funds, given the fact that the stocks are carefully chosen and sector calls are taken by the fund manager, so an investor need not worry about the timing, said Mehta.

Investing in sectoral funds can be appealing for certain types of investors, but it is important to understand who they are best suited for and how they compare to broader strategies like large caps or flexi/multi caps, says Singh.

“These funds are suitable for experienced and nuanced investors who understand the impact of the sector/theme on the overall economy and how its growth can lead to potential gains in their portfolios. So, while diversified offerings are a must-have in the portfolio, those who have a higher risk appetite and would like exposure to a certain theme or sector can invest with a long-term investment horizon,” said Singh. According to him, investors should ensure diversified offerings occupy a larger part of their portfolio, along with these offerings in a satellite portion for potential boost to overall returns.

Most investors are better off investing in diversified equity funds where patience and a long-time horizon act as an advantage. “For experienced investors with a high-risk appetite, wanting to explore sector and thematic investing, we would suggest starting small with a limited exposure (less than 20 per cent) and increasing it over time as you gain experience and expertise,” said Mehta.

Index funds, which track a particular underlying index such as Sensex or NSE Nifty Next 50 or small cap 50 with little active fund manager decision making, have also gained traction in this backdrop. Fund houses are also seen taking innovative bets in index funds.

DSP, for instance, recently launched the Nifty top 10 equal weight index fund. Currently equity markets are at a high and valuations in several stocks and sectors appear expensive. In this context, it is wise to invest in areas showing relative underperformance, where there is a margin of safety and good growth potential, said Anil Ghelani, head of passive investments and products at DSP Mutual Fund.

“While there is growing interest in small and mid-cap stocks, the largest and mega-cap stocks appear to be trading at relatively more attractive valuations. Over the past four years, the market has witnessed significant depolarisation, leading to the underperformance of the top 10 stocks compared to broader indices. This relatively lower valuation and margin of safety could be seen as a good opportunity,” said Ghelani.

One reason passive funds (index funds and exchange traded funds) have generated interest is that they have extremely low cost. For instance, annual expense ratio (annual fee that fund houses charge for managing the fund) of index funds linked to the Nifty50 ranges between 0.2-0.3 per cent, while the actively managed large-cap funds have an expense ratio of about 1 per cent.

Passive funds are also more straightforward, providing investors with a clear understanding of their risk and return outcomes, said Ghelani. Although the overall AUM of passive funds is still low compared with active funds, in the large-cap category, for instance, index funds and ETFs have seen larger inflows compared with active funds over the past three years.

ETFs and index funds now account for around 17 per cent of the total MF industry AUM and that proportion is likely to increase to 25 per cent in next 3-5 years.

usage-driven-motor-insurance-policies-offer-several-benefits

Sat Sep 21 11:33:50 IST 2024

Looking to buy a new car insurance policy or renewing your existing one? The master circular issued by the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) in June had some important guidelines that will help you.

IRDAI asked insurance companies to offer two options as first choice under motor insurance. One of the options was 'pay-as-you-drive' insurance cover.

As the name suggests, you pay premium on the motor insurance based on how much or how you drive rather than paying a flat fee. This is a comprehensive own-damage plus third-party motor insurance policy. The third party premium will continue to be determined by existing rules, but the own-damage premium is based on the number of kilometres that you drive. So, if you drive less, you pay less.

A few companies now offer this as an add-on cover. For instance, if you are driving less than 10,000km a year, HDFC Ergo lets you claim benefit up to 25 per cent of the basic own damage premium at the end of the policy year. When the policy expires, subject to providing distance travelled, one can claim the benefit.

Some companies also offer the 'pay-how-you-drive' option, where the premium is calculated based on how you drive your car. The safer you drive, the lower will be the premium.

Telematics and usage driven motor insurance offers several other benefits as well. “It offers feedback on driving habits, which can help improve driving behaviour and potentially increase safety,” said Shashi Kant Dahuja, executive director and chief underwriting officer at Shriram General Insurance. “Also, in the event of a claim, detailed data can help provide a clearer picture of what happened, leading to faster resolution.”

Shriram General Insurance offers pay as you drive as a usage-based add-on cover, under which the insured can get a discount on own damage premium. “To avail the benefit, at the time of policy inception, the insured need to declare the maximum kilometres the vehicle will run as per the opted kilometre plan,” said Dahuja.

Zuno General Insurance (formerly Edelweiss General Insurance) recently launched a usage based add-on option for its motor insurance customers, where, the user driving behaviour is analysed based on data collected through mobile telematics on the company's app. The policy holder can assess her driving skills and generate a points-based score. Based on the score, she can get a discount on insurance premium at the time of renewal. Shanai Ghosh, MD and CEO of Zuno General Insurance, said a policyholder could save up to 30 per cent on the premium, depending on the score.

According to a report by Fortune Business Insights, the global insurance telematics market was valued at $4.33 billion in 2023 and it is projected to grow to $5.03 billion in 2024 and $19.23 billion by 2032. In India, it is still at a nascent stage, though. “The starting point of telematics was that you had to pay extra for a device and you had to install it in your car. Both were barriers to adoption,” said Ghosh.

Dahuja said data privacy and security are also a concern among customers. “The collection and handling of personal and vehicle data raise privacy concerns among consumers. There may be apprehensions about how data is used and who has access to it.” Ensuring compliance with data protection regulations and addressing privacy concerns are crucial for insurance companies to gain customer trust, he said.

Modern cars have advanced technology features on board. By harnessing the data from these features, insurers can improve risk assessment, streamline claims management, offer personalised coverage and develop innovative insurance products, he added.

While such data- and usage-based motor insurance products were slow to take off, the Covid-19 pandemic gave it some boost. As remote work and work from home gained ground in many sectors, pay-as-you-drive plans started gaining popularity among hybrid/remote workers. Homemakers and those with more than one car are also attracted to this, according to an analysis by insurance distributor PolicyBazaar. Hybrid/remote or work-from-home employees account for 35 per cent of the pay-as-you-drive customer base.

“Hybrid/remote workers are more inclined towards distance slabs of 5,500km (33 per cent), 7,500km (29 per cent), and 2,500km (21 per cent). These choices reflect a mix of moderate to low annual mileage, aligning with the reduced commuting needs of remote workers,” said the report. These customers are predominantly located in cities like Bengaluru, Gurugram, Delhi, Pune and Hyderabad, which are the major tech hubs.

Homemakers make up around 15 per cent of the pay-as-you-drive customer base and households with multiple cars account for 25 per cent.

tata-was-supposed-to-work-its-midas-touch-and-transform-air-india-into-the-lord-of-the-skies

Sat Sep 14 12:39:52 IST 2024

Vistara started doing its wing waves a few days ago. The airline stopped taking bookings on September 3, and will be merged with Air India in two months.

A joint venture of Tata Sons and Singapore Airlines (SIA), Vistara was the only Indian airline to make it to the Top 20 list of World’s Best Airlines this year. But there was little reason for it to continue as a separate entity after Tata bought back Air India from the government in October 2021. It did not make sense for one company to run two full-service airlines, especially with the regulatory approval for SIA taking 26 per cent stake in Air India coming through some time ago.

But the reality in the sky is that there is a world of difference in the service quality offered by Air India and Vistara. “It is baffling that the civil aviation ministry allowed the merger of a modern, well-functioning airline like Vistara with an outdated one and has approved Tata’s decision to rebrand it as Air India,” commented Kapil Chopra, founder of EazyDiner and The Postcard group of hotels and former president of The Oberoi group of hotels.

THE MORE THINGS CHANGE….

When Air India returned to the Tata fold, the expectation was that it would reclaim the lost glory as one of the finest in the world. Instead, it took a turn for the worse. “If people were expecting miracles within a year, that is an impossible task. But now almost three years are over, it is time to show and demonstrate that there have been significant improvements in the operation of the airline,” said Sidharath Kapur, former executive director of GMR Airports and former CEO of Adani Airports. “The honeymoon period is over. People are now expecting more.”

THE PROBLEM WITH THE MIDAS TOUCH

“There is a belief that because Air India once belonged to the Tatas, they have the requisite experience (to run an airline). There can’t be a bigger fallacy than this!” said Jitender Bhargava, former executive director of Air India. “J.R.D. Tata personally, and not Bombay House (Tata Sons headquarters), managed Air India. So for anyone to believe that Tatas have the capability and they will make it into a world-class airline because of past experience is wrong.”

While Tata did get into aviation in the 2010s with AirAsia India and Vistara, both were more investment than operations. But once it acquired Air India, that changed. “Be it Titan (watches and jewellery), Taj hotels, TCS (software) or consumer businesses, there is a certain expectation when people see the Tata name. The airline business, unfortunately, has not lived up to that promise,” said Prof Anand Narasimha, brand expert and professor of marketing at JAGSoM and visiting faculty at IIM Bangalore. “In the airline business, you are not flying planes, you are flying people.”

Even for a salt-to-software conglomerate, the decision to buy a white elephant paying Rs18,000 crore (and a few thousands of crores after that on new orders) was “more an emotional decision than a strategic or rational one”, said Narasimha.

Compounding matters, the five-year transformation process called vihaan.ai saw a series of missteps. “They brought in people from other Tata group companies,” pointed out Kapur. “But then they realised that you cannot bring in, say, an executive from a vehicle manufacturer to run an airline. It takes years of experience to understand the operations of a complex international airline and be adept at it.”

To rectify this, many expat managers were brought in from SIA, including CEO Campbell Wilson, who was heading SIA’s budget airline Scoot.

MAN, NOT MACHINE

Some Air India employees took the voluntary retirement scheme Tata offered after the takeover. And many of those who chose to stay soon started feeling demoralised with “Tata’s own people lording over them”. The once glamorous job with pampering perks had suddenly become a difficult workplace.

“I took this job several years ago despite lucrative offers from other PSUs because a job at Air India was more sought-after, with lots of privileges and perks,” said a senior employee who didn’t want to be named. “But now many of those have been cut down ruthlessly by the new management, from passage facility (free tickets) to lifelong medical coverage. The government had assured us that all privileges will remain, but that word wasn’t kept.”

Adding insult to injury was the notion that Tata was inheriting an incompetent bunch of employees who had lost their edge. “The employees were not bad; they were just demoralised. Their enthusiasm had been killed and they were not led properly,” said Bhargava, “Tata just needed to re-engineer their work practices, but they did not take that course.”

Thus was set in motion perhaps the biggest mistake in Tata’s makeover of Air India―disregarding the employees and the importance of human resources. “Ask any management expert what the key to a merger is? Manpower. How do you integrate the manpower and bring about harmony in work conditions? Same thing again―HR!” said Bhargava. “When they knew the merger was going to take place, they should have taken a merger expert for the role, and not an HR director who was retiring in a few months!”

The result was a trial-and-error style of management which has caused angst across the board. It spilled over this summer with Vistara pilots and Air India Express cabin crew going on strike. “Employees have to understand they are no longer in a government-run airline and need to be productive, efficient and smart,” said Shivram Choudhry of JK Lakshmipat University’s Institute of Management. “Likewise, the management has to understand that this government background attitude will change, but over a period of time. But you can’t come with the attitude that everyone in Air India from the past was no good and anyone from Tata knows better!”

Choudhry said Tata was making the same mistake the government made when it merged Air India and Indian Airlines. “Instead of equipping them to survive and prosper amidst fierce global and domestic competition, that merged entity ended up reporting persistent losses year after year, leading to an accumulated loss of Rs16,000 crore,” he said.

STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS

In defence of Tata and its strategy is a core ingredient―and challenge―of the business: competition.

The emotional legacy and Tata’s track record of buying sick companies and turning them around apart, the only way the Air India acquisition would have made sense was eventually the airline transforming into a cash spewer―akin to Emirates or Singapore Airlines. The opportunity is very much there. India is the fastest growing civil aviation market in the world and even the 1,000-plus aircraft ordered by its airline companies may still turn out to be inadequate if the growth continues with the same momentum.

In this scenario, not using its prized airport slots all over the world or not flying on all the routes was not an option, even if your planes and crew were not the best. “If Air India had withdrawn those services, other airlines would have taken that market,” said Bhargava. “To regain that market share in the next five years after the new aircraft arrived would have taken considerable amount of time and money. Tata’s decision to continue despite using older planes is all about protecting the market share and growing it.”

Kapur puts it in perspective, “Tatas are a committed organisation and they have deep pockets,” he said. “I am sure they have a strategy in place in terms of aircraft maintenance, HR practices, network planning, turnaround time and profitability. But what is missing is a communication strategy. Air India is in the public arena and a lot of your stakeholders are potential passengers. And they want to know, ‘Should I be flying Air India or not?’”

TEST MATCH, NOT T20

It is not for want of trying, but the airline is saddled with old aircraft that desperately need repairs and makeover. Wilson had told THE WEEK a few months ago that with new Airbus A350s being added into the fleet, old planes would be sent for retrofitting. “The process includes painting with the new branding and livery, and changing the interiors and seats. So we have to see what value we get. The really old planes will not go for this and will be retired from service,” he said.

That, however, will take time, and until then, the management has been playing with the frills―changing the logo and livery, a new set of crew uniforms designed by Manish Malhotra and overhauling the airline’s digital infra.

The digital upgrade includes a new app and revamped website, an iPad app for cabin crew and facilities like baggage tracking and WhatsApp virtual assistant for passengers. “In the last one year, we have taken several initiatives to enhance customer experience, including digital channels, airport and inflight services and contact centre,” said Rajesh Dogra, chief customer experience officer, Air India.

Air India has been working on improving its frequent flyer programme ‘Flying Returns’, adding in anything from Legoland to cruise lines and rail systems in Europe where points can be used and bookings done seamlessly. The Maharaja lounges at Delhi T3 and New York’s JFK are also set to be refurbished into signature lounges. “We are confident that the modern, world-class look of Air India will appeal to our guests globally and serve as a strong reminder of all the remarkable changes that have come or are to come to their Air India experience,” said Wilson.

WHOSE AIR INDIA IS IT ANYWAY?

Air India may still surprise us after the five-year transformation is complete in 2027. But that does not mean that India’s aviation market will be its for the taking.

The intense competition, both domestic and international, is unlikely to ease up, despite the fact that the number of domestic airlines can be counted on one’s fingers. While airlines from the Middle East and the likes of Turkish Airlines are eyeing the growing and lucrative international market, runaway market leader IndiGo is in no mood to give way at the domestic front.

Air India’s strategy is to speed up the Vistara merger to create an impression of better quality levels in its full-service offering, even while shoring up its presence in the low-cost space by aggressively expanding Air India Express. IndiGo has already responded with beefing up its international network and codeshare partnerships aiming to become India’s global carrier, a position that conventionally belonged to Air India. It has also announced a full-service business class offering, ending any hopes that Air India will have monopoly in the premium full-service segment within the country.

Also, the globetrotting connoisseur with rarefied tastes―the typical image of a passenger from Air India’s glory days―has changed. Millennials and Gen Z travellers are not really bothered with the champagne’s temperature or the cutlery on board. If at all, they only have negative connotations of the airline, unlike an older generation who associate AI with royalty, national pride and jet set glamour. It will be tough to win them over when stories of bad passenger experiences abound on social media.

Tail wind

By K. Sunil Thomas

If money is the bottom line, Air India’s new management does have reasons to be happy. The airline is still in the red, but the losses have narrowed, showing that there is hope left for the Maharaja.

The overall losses of all four airlines of Tata came down from about Rs15,000 crore in 2023 fiscal to just above Rs6,000 crore this year. For Air India alone, the losses have come down 60 per cent from around Rs11,000 crore in 2023 down to Rs4,444 crore this year. The increase in turnover was an impressive 24 per cent to more than Rs50,000 crore!

How did the airline manage this feat, considering the fact that it has been labouring under a mountain of debt? “They maximised their load capacity, getting as many planes as functional as possible, and increased routes, seats and the load factor,” explained aviation expert Sidharath Kapur. Airfares were also rationalised, making Air India offer, in many instances, more competitive fares than the market leader IndiGo.

The airline has also been working on a two-pronged strategy of cutting expenditure where possible, especially on the administrative side, even while maximising add-on revenue, on anything from seat selection to excess baggage. While passengers may crib that Air India is going the IndiGo way by charging for extra weight, “all this amounts to revenue”, according to an industry insider.

Kapur feels that if Air India manages to stay on this course, it might even turn profitable in a few years. Meanwhile, sister-airline Air India Express has flown into the red posting losses of Rs163 crore―ironic because even during the dark days of bureaucracy-run inefficiency, it had mostly made profits. This could be attributed to its aggressive expansion domestically to take on IndiGo.

sagarmanthan-the-great-oceans-dialogue-mumbai-india-maritime-agenda

Sat Sep 14 12:31:26 IST 2024

THE NAME COULDN’T have been more apt. In Hindu mythology’s ‘Samudra Manthan’ (churning of the ocean), Mount Mandara was used as the churning stick and Vasuki, the thousand-headed snake, as the rope to extract ‘amrit’ (nectar) from the netherworlds. The gods who consumed the elixir became immortal, and therefore invincible.

In an ambitious, strategic move, the ministry of ports, shipping, and waterways (MoPSW) will be hosting ‘Sagarmanthan: The Great Oceans Dialogue’ in Mumbai on November 18 and 19. About 100 countries, including those from North America, South America, Europe, Eurasia, the Gulf, East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, Africa and the Quad are expected to participate. While announcing the mega event in Delhi on September 3, Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal said that the dialogue aims to churn ideas, strategies and solutions that will lead to a more sustainable and equitable future for the greater common good.

The dialogue’s focus will be to set India’s and the global south’s interests in the maritime agenda, which thus far had been governed by the global north; the global south’s voice had remained a faint echo, at best. It is part of a plan to claim India’s rightful place on the high table of global deliberations on policies, developmental effort and geopolitical strategy. The dialogue will be a veritable platform for critical conversations around blue economy, maritime logistics, ports, shipping and waterways, critical minerals, diversified supply chains, global maritime economy and training and labour standards. There will be stakeholders from across fields, including leaders, policymakers, strategic thinkers, intergovernmental organisations, maritime policy research institutions and industry.

“There can be no doubt that we need to infuse new dynamism to reinvent India’s maritime prowess, more so when blessed with a long coastline and island chains on both sides of peninsular India,” Commodore R.S. Vasan (retd), regional director of the National Maritime Foundation, Tamil Nadu, told THE WEEK.

Today, 95 per cent of India’s global trade by volume and 70 per cent by value are carried out on the oceans, and India is the third largest in terms of ship recycling by tonnage. Despite being strategically located on the world’s shipping routes and with more than 7,500km of coastline, India is only the 16th largest maritime country in the world.

“For some unexplained reasons, to some extent attributed to ocean blindness, the shipping and port sector remained largely neglected,” said Vasan. “We have not progressed beyond the 12 major ports that were barely adequate to meet the demands of a growing economy. The fact that even today we are dependent on Colombo and Singapore for transshipment of merchandise is entirely due to non-development of suitable deep water modern ports. The glorious past, unfortunately, was left behind only to be eulogised.”

This has made the government sit up and act. “Whether it is connecting the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean through the India-Middle East-Europe-Economic Corridor or opening immense trade and economic opportunities for the land-locked countries of Central Asia by building the International North-South Transport Corridor, the goal is clear―‘sabka saath, sabka vikas’,” said Sonowal.

A ministry official added that it is imperative for India, as it moves from the fifth-largest to the third-largest economy, to establish a more prominent presence in the global maritime governance matrix. “The realisation of our economic goals depends significantly on the strength of our maritime sector,” said Sonowal. “This includes our ability to shape global narratives, maintain resilient global supply chains and secure important maritime partnerships.”

And already the churn has set in. During the Global Maritime India Summit held in Mumbai last October, 360 MoUs totalling Rs10 lakh crore were signed with foreign and domestic stakeholders on government-to-government and business-to-business modes.

The MoUs include port development, modernisation, cruise sector, business and commerce, shipbuilding and knowledge sharing.

One such iconic project has been the development of the greenfield mega container port at Vadhavan on India’s west coast. The Vadhvan port development will create around one lakh jobs during construction and more than 12 lakh jobs once operational. In the 2023 Container Port Performance Index by the World Bank, nine Indian ports find a place among the top 100, with Visakhapatnam port in the top 20.

“The progress is indeed notable and there are visible signs of momentum in the ecosystem,” said Vasan, who is also director-general of Chennai Centre for China Studies. “The investment in spokes and hubs as part of rail, road, sea and river projects were long overdue and the planned projects would complement the aspirations of a maritime power. The inland waterways have taken rapid strides in the last decade or so and there are visible results along the Brahmaputra and Ganga. The operationalisation of Vizhinjam and modernisation of ports on both coasts have paid rich dividends and opened up new vistas. The plans for Galathia port in Nicobar would serve the needs of both the mercantile marine and the Indian Navy in the coming decades.”

About 15 per cent of global seafarers are from India, while the same cannot be said of India’s merchant fleet that accounts for just about two per cent of global tonnage. This is a serious setback as even today major tonnage is transported in Chinese hulls. In this context, the maritime vision document released by the government sets the right targets for concerned stakeholders.

Said Vasan: “India has its task cut out to overcome the hesitations of history to regain past glory of the Cholas, Kalingas and other kingdoms of yore, who harnessed the seas for wielding influence beyond the shores.”

hindenburg-allegations-put-spotlight-on-probity-of-regulators

Sat Aug 17 15:06:37 IST 2024

THE BJP SAYS IT is a conspiracy to destabilise India’s financial markets. The Congress wants a joint parliament committee probe. Irrespective of which side you are on, the latest report by Hindenburg Research has put the market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India and its chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch in a spot over conflict of interest. It also raises broader compliance issues the very regulator has looked to address over the years.

Founded by Nathan Anderson, the New-York-based Hindenburg specialises in forensic financial research. In particular, it looks for situations where companies might have accounting irregularities, bad actors in management, undisclosed transactions, unethical business practices, undisclosed regulatory issues and the like. And it also aims to profit from its research through short-selling, a trading strategy where stock traders take a position that a particular stock price will fall. Often its report itself drives the stock price lower, like it did in January 2023, when its report on Adani Group alleging accounting fraud, stock price manipulation and money laundering wiped off around $150 billion in the group’s market cap. Hindenburg made $4.1 million revenue by shorting Adani securities on behalf of its client.

In its latest report, Hindenburg alleged that despite enough evidence, SEBI did not act against Adani. It alleges that Buch and her husband, Dhaval, had investments in the same obscure offshore funds used by Adani Group chairman Gautam Adani’s brother Vinod. It also alleged that while Dhaval was a senior adviser at American investment management company Blackstone and Buch was a SEBI official, two Blackstone-sponsored real estate investment trusts (REITs) received the approval to go public in India, and after she became chair, SEBI implemented several REITs regulations that benefited Blackstone.

Another allegation was that Buch had set up two advisory firms, one in Singapore and the other in India, and held 99 per cent stake in the Indian firm and that firm had generated $261,000 revenue from consulting in financial year 2022, which was 4.4 times her disclosed salary as a whole-time member of SEBI.

The Buchs responded with point-by-point answers to the allegation. For instance, they said they invested in the fund (IPE Plus Fund 1) when they were working in Singapore and they did so because the CIO Anil Ahuja was Dhaval’s childhood friend. The investments were made in 2015 and redeemed in 2018 when Ahuja left. She said that the consulting firms she had set up had become dormant on her appointment at SEBI and once the shareholding of the Singapore entity was transferred to her husband, it was disclosed to SEBI as well as Singapore authorities.

J.N. Gupta, former executive director of SEBI, said there was no way that the Buchs would have known who the other investors were in a fund. “Would you ask for details of all investors in a mutual fund before investing? These expectations are irrational,” he said.

According to Shriram Subramanian, founder of the proxy advisory firm InGovern, the Hindenburg allegations against Buch were “amateurish” and seemed “vindictive without any depth of analysis”. “She has not gained anything from being an investor in the IPE Plus Fund, her shareholdings in the Indian and Singapore consultancy firms are fairly straightforward and on an ongoing basis, SEBI officials, including the whole-time members and chairperson have to internally disclose their personal investments and commercial interests,” he said.

SEBI, too, clarified that she had made all relevant disclosures of securities holdings and recused herself when necessary. According to Gupta, the current disclosure norms for SEBI officials are robust, with them having to declare all assets and investments. And they can’t invest in shares of listed companies.

Nonetheless, the whole episode has raised many concerns.

“This can be viewed as a wake-up call for SEBI and other regulators,” said Subramanian. “The chairs and top officials should disclose and put their wealth and investments into blind trusts.” Blind trusts are typically set up where an individual needs to avoid a conflict of interest between her work and personal investments. In countries like Canada and the US, it predominantly applies to government officials. In a blind trust, the individual assigns all her assets to a trustee, who is then in charge of all the decision making related to the assets.

Columnist and author Debashis Basu said it was not a corporate governance issue. “It is about the probity of the regulator, which has been pushing enormous burden of disclosure and compliance on market participants,” he said. “SEBI already has board members from the finance ministry and the RBI who can start by asking some questions if needed,” he said.

An independent inquiry seems to be the best way to protect the reputation of SEBI and its leadership. “If the claims are substantiated, it might call for a review of oversight mechanisms and personal accountability within SEBI. If they are found baseless, it is crucial to understand the motives behind such allegations and the potential impacts on the market. Either way, it underscores the need for robust systems to prevent and address conflicts of interest and ensure that the market operates transparently and fairly,” said Akshat Khetan, founder of AU Corporate Advisory and Legal Services.

While the new Hindenburg report has put the spotlight on the regulator and its chief, what is the status of the Adani investigation?

The Supreme Court had in January noted that SEBI had completed 22 of 24 investigations related to Adani Group. According to SEBI, another one has been completed in March and the last remaining investigation is close to completion. Apparently, it examined some 300 documents, issued more than 100 summonses and sent around 1,100 emails seeking information.

SEBI had issued a show-cause notice to Hindenburg in June over violations of securities laws. The regulator said that the proceedings are going on.

The episode has resulted in a political slugfest as well. The government has so far shown no inclination to give in to the opposition’s demand for a JPC probe. The opposition is likely to keep up the pressure. The equity markets’ response to the new Hindenburg report was significantly muted than the first one, perhaps because of the diminished shock value. But surely, we have not heard the last of the Hindenburg versus Adani and SEBI saga.

ex-imf-official-krishnamurthy-v-subramanian-about-india-economic-development-2047

Wed Aug 21 21:20:27 IST 2024

Interview/ Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian, executive director of IMF and former CEA

Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian has several titles you are free to choose from―the regular ‘Mr’ to ‘Er’ for his engineering degree from IIT Kanpur to 'Dr' for his doctorate in financial economics from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, or the one he seems to personally prefer, ‘Prof’ from his academic days at the Indian School of Business in Hyderabad. Subramanian, however, would brook no argument on India’s prospects of becoming a global economic leader by 2047.

He does have a little more than an ordinary citizen's stake in it, having been instrumental in formulating the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ and ‘Vocal for Local’ restructuring of India’s economic policy during his days as the chief economic adviser. He followed this up with the longer-term ‘Amrit Kaal 2047’ blueprint for India becoming a developed nation. It is also the foundation for his new book, India @100; Envisioning Tomorrow’s Economic Powerhouse (Rupa). Currently executive director at the International Monetary Fund, Subramanian espouses his fervent belief that India is all set to grab this ‘once-in-a-few-centuries’ opportunity. Excerpts from an interview:

Q You have painted such a rosy picture of India’s future in your book, like its GDP touching $55 trillion in 2047.

A This outcome hinges on whether we can grow at 8 per cent from now on till 2047. Of course, I have portrayed other scenarios as well. Even if we grow at 7 per cent, we will be $40 trillion and, if we grow only at 6 per cent, we will still be $30 trillion.

If some risks manifest it is possible that growth may be lower. Eight per cent is ambitious but achievable especially given the demography we have, the kind of policies that have been implemented over the past 10 years, the public digital infrastructure, the innovation and the entrepreneurship.

Also, anywhere between two-thirds to three-quarters of our economy is informal, and informal sector firms are far less productive than formal sector firms. So the emphasis on formalisation that is happening through the public digital infrastructure will be a key driver of productivity improvement.

And for the first time, we have entered the top 40 innovative countries list. So these will drive productivity improvements in the formal sector as well. When you put it all together, there are potential headwinds and potential tailwinds.

Q You say India has a once-in-a-century opportunity.

A I did not say once in a century; I said once-in-a-few-centuries opportunity! If we indeed grow at 8 per cent, we will be a $55 trillion economy. In that case we will be rubbing shoulders with the top economy of that time. The last time India was of a similar size to a top economy was in the 13th or 14th century. India accounted for at least one-third of the world's GDP consistently for every century up until 1750 CE. So we could be the second largest economy or maybe very, very similar in size to the largest economy.

Q What are the factors that will contribute to it? You mentioned the demographic dividend, but that could very well turn into a burden.

A The first is the formalisation of the economy, where informal sector firms come into the formal sector and thereby become far more productive.

You have to remember that growth comes from two key things. One is investment and the other is productivity improvements. We have to maintain about 35 per cent of GDP as investment. A key driver is productivity growth from informal sector firms becoming formalised. Then the significant improvements that have happened in innovation and entrepreneurship. In the interim budget, Rs1 lakh crore of long-term funding for innovation was announced. Together with the National Research Foundation, this will enable innovation. So, innovation and entrepreneurship will lead to productivity improvements, even among formal sector firms that still have a long way to catch up with the formal sector firms internationally.

I have laid out a four-pillared economic strategy for India. The first pillar is macroeconomic force and focus on economic growth. The second pillar is social and economic inclusion. The third pillar is ethical money making. We did not become a stellar economy by following the socialist model. If anything, by following the socialist model from 1947 to 1991, we really lagged behind while East Asian economies, South Korea, Singapore all grew.

And the last point is entrepreneurship and the wealth and jobs they can create. Whether it is wealthy individual X or wealthy individual Y, they are not stacking rupee bills in their mattresses. Their wealth is invested in companies that provide jobs. Wealth creation leads to job creation. Wealth creators need to be respected. This is a narrative change that is required.

Q We have seen a huge dearth of jobs and, in fact, the budget also addressed it to some extent, admitting that there is an issue.

A The narrative on employment has run far ahead of the actual data. A lot of the negative narrative on employment actually comes from very poor quality data that the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy provides. If you look at the Reserve Bank of India report, it shows that over the past 10 years 12.5 crore jobs have been created. Just because the government is working on employment creation, that does not mean that jobs have not been created. The data shows it clearly.

Q You have mentioned that the slowdown before Covid originated due to the crony bank lending during the UPA era. Didn't demonetisation and other factors also contribute to it?

A Many people mention demonetisation. I want to point out the paper by my colleague at IMF, Gita Gopinath. They tried very hard to find the effect of demonetisation on growth and found no such impact. I think it is time we actually let the data speak here. Rather than going by just anecdotal accounts, we should be respecting empirical evidence.

Q You have made a confident, optimistic outlook of India's future. What could actually trip it up? Could a regime change, one with a different kind of economic policy coming in, pose a danger?

A What is important is good policies. In the past 10 years, we've had good economic policies, starting from the 500 million bank accounts that enabled us to do the JAM trinity (Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile), the IBC (insolvency and bankruptcy code), the way we dealt with Covid, both on the health front and on the economic front, rather than mimicking advanced economies.

People who live in the US and come here for a few days on vacation do not have such a good understanding of the Indian economic landscape as one has when you actually live here. At the same time, those who live here also need to be aware of what other countries are doing. A combination of both is what is required for policy.

We should not just cut-paste what advanced economies have done. For instance, the Maastricht Treaty for Europe requires countries to keep fiscal deficit at 3 per cent of the GDP. Our Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act just cut-pasted that without accounting for the fact that India is at a very different stage of development where the sovereign has to create public goods, be it digital public goods, physical public goods, or human capital public goods. At the same time, our growth potential is much higher than that of Europe. Yet, we did cut-paste without taking into account some of these very important aspects. So the key risk is actually in not implementing good economic policies.

nmdc-has-made-a-commitment-to-responsible-mining

Sat Aug 10 15:40:13 IST 2024

Interview/Amitava Mukherjee, Chairman and Managing Director, NMDC

An impressive increase in sales (16 per cent) and production of iron ore (10 per cent) was witnessed during 2023-24 as compared to the last financial year. What efforts went into achieving these figures?

The volumes delivered by NMDC in FY24 were indeed impressive. The production of 45.1 MT and sales of 44.4 MT, made NMDC the first iron ore mining company in India to surpass the 45 million tonne milestone! With strategic agility towards capacity building, we outperformed the capex target for FY24 with an expenditure of Rs2,014 crore, up by 14 per cent of the target.

Strategic investment in manpower, machine, and material led to streamlined projects and enhanced operations. In FY24, a new vertical―‘Works Organisation’ was also introduced in the company line for timely execution and monitoring of projects. Some achievements of building dedicated responsibility centres in the company were commencement of operations from the Kumar Marenga stockyard, implementation of an all inclusive pricing mechanism, and development of digital business intelligence.

Our key iron ore mining projects in Bailadila and Donimalai range played a crucial role in this performance by delivering their best-ever volumes since the company's inception. The initiatives of the top management, the policy and direction from a dynamic Board at the hub and devoted and resilient workforce at the spoke have propelled the company to surpass all expectations. NMDC has demonstrated its sheer strength in FY24, inspiring confidence in the vision of producing 100 million tonnes of iron ore by 2030.

Doors to a new R&D facility were recently opened by NMDC in Hyderabad. What is your take on Research and Development at NMDC in the coming years?

NMDC has invested Rs150 crore towards research and development in the past five years, which we view as an investment in the future of the Indian mining industry. Our R&D is a part of our long standing commitment and vision anchored in the ambition of ensuring mineral security and self-reliance.

In the budget session, the finance minister has reduced customs duty on rare earth metals and critical minerals. What impact will it have on NMDC’s exploration exercises and operations?

The cutback in customs duty on rare earth metals and critical minerals by the honourable finance minister presents a fitting opportunity to the mining companies of the country. This policy shift will bring down the cost of importing essential equipment and new age technology; enabling the industrial effort to accelerate exploration of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Battery minerals are becoming increasingly essential for our transition to electric vehicles and other renewable energy solutions.

In our diversification roadmap, lithium, cobalt and nickel prominently feature in the list and so it is a very welcome decision for NMDC. It will encourage our exploration and collaboration initiatives while promoting investment in R&D and the expansion of our mineral portfolio. This intervention supports our ambition to become a key player in the global market for critical minerals and be one of the first mining companies in India to bring lithium home.

A catalyst in the changing mineral landscape, the new policy gives us a competitive edge. With the determination to leverage this opportunity, NMDC is gearing up to make a key contribution to the green growth of India’s mining sector.

In the new financial year, what are the initiatives, interests, and plans of NMDC?

We are poised to build up our market leadership in FY25 towards the goal of 100 million tonnes production capacity by 2030. Our primary focus will be on enhancing production and evacuation capacities and to this end, a capital expenditure of Rs2,500 crore has been earmarked for this financial year. NMDC will be investing in mine infrastructure and intelligent equipment to boost productivity and efficiency.

We are also keen on expanding our mineral and geographical footprint. The team is exploring opportunities in Australia, Africa, South East Asia and Latin America to mine strategic minerals of national interest―iron ore, coking coal, lithium and battery minerals.

NMDC has made a commitment to responsible mining. We have outlined key performance indicators to assess the progress and efficacy of our ESG initiatives. In FY25, we aim to weave sustainability into the fabric of our company’s overall business goals, decision making, risk management, strategic investment and future planning.

badra-coffee-is-brewing-a-shake-up-in-the-coffee-market

Fri Aug 02 16:37:32 IST 2024

Do you like your coffee? Or do you just drink it out of habit? If your answer is ‘yes’ to the second question, Jacob Mammen, managing director of Badra Estates in Chikkamagaluru in Karnataka might have a solution for you.

Badra Coffee is all set to launch four blends for the retail market. Three of them, Temple Mountain (Arabica), Misty Heights (single estate) and Kaapi Nirvana (filter), are pure coffees, while Dakshin Fusion is a filter coffee with chicory. “Explore a basket of flavours direct from our farm, grown, roasted and curated by us available soon,” says Mammen. These will soon be available to the Indian consumers.

Mammen’s great-grandfather bought the estate from Brooke Bond Ltd. Three generations of the family have run Badra Estates and Industries Ltd, which was formed in 1943. “Things were quite different in the beginning. The Coffee market was fully regulated. All growers pooled their coffee with the Coffee Board of India. We had no control after coffee left the farm,” says Mammen. In 1997, the government allowed growers to sell their coffee. Badra started exploring export possibilities then, and has been focusing on specialty coffee ever since.

Mammen is a true believer in developing specialty coffee, and he worked with reputable international buyers to improve the quality of Badra Coffee. “We call it relationship coffees,” he says. “We interact with our buyers to understand their requirements of different flavour profiles, and then work on developing coffees that specifically suit them.”

Special attention is also given to manufacturing, which involves washed, semi-washed, and unwashed processes. The company has done different trials in fermentation and has been working with a German buyer who collaborates with the German government. Scientists from Germany come to the farm during harvest. They collect samples after many trials. The samples are then taken to their labs in Berlin where they isolate the beneficial microbes prevalent on different estates. These microbes are then used to tweak fermentation and produce a basket of flavours.

The focus on collaboration has led to a range of coffees that could be as wide as what is available in the wine industry. Climate, altitude, soil, farming methods, plant varieties and microclimate all play a role in developing flavour. In general, Indian coffees are of medium acidity, which is very good for an espresso.

Taste is everything in the specialty coffee market. Badra Coffee sells coffee based on taste and flavour. The company’s experts tailor-make coffees to customer requirements. “Every process, from bean to cup, affects the taste of coffee. All processes from growing to roasting are handled in-house and not outsourced,” says Mammen.

India is just one of the many markets that international buyers shop from. “Usually our customers are roasters and they buy from all over the world,” says Mammen. “As a seller, we must know what buyers are looking for in our coffees. So we must understand whether they are looking for espresso, stand-alone, filter, blend or any other special taste characteristics. They interact with us and cup coffees to find out what matches their requirements.” Badra Coffee mainly sells to niche coffee roasters in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Germany, Italy, the UK, Norway, Greece and the US.

Over the years, however, the coffee industry in India has changed dramatically. Climate change and labour issues have posed new and difficult challenges for growers. On the positive side of the spectrum, coffee consumption and consumer interest in coffee have drastically increased. As a result, Badra Coffee has now decided to move beyond relationship coffees as the Indian consumer is asking for more.

“The Indian coffee market has evolved a lot,” says Mammen. “With Indian consumers becoming increasingly discerning, they now seek detailed information about the origin and flavours of their coffee. In response to this demand, we offer both roasted beans and ground coffee tailored to customer requirements. This is the opportunity to move to the next level of the roast and the ground segment.”

The domestic special and specialty coffee market is still small but growing. Mammen gives the credit for this growth to Cafe Coffee Day, which set up coffee outlets all over this tea-drinking country. “Of late, with so many people popularising coffee, young people are now very interested in it,” he says.

This is the first time Badra Coffee is selling a finished product to retail customers. “We are in total control of our coffees. We are a seed-to-cup company. So if you are looking to savour every sip of your coffee rather than just drink it out of habit, give some of Badra Coffee’s blends a try for a truly sensational bean-to-cup experience,” says Mammen.

made-by-political-compulsions-nirmala-sitharaman-s-budget-is-meant-for-political-outcomes

Sat Jul 27 13:20:05 IST 2024

A LOT HAS CHANGED in a few months, and it was clearly evident in the Modi 3.0 government’s first budget.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented an interim budget on February 1 against the backdrop of the confidence that the BJP-led government would return to power with a larger majority, and her speech dwelled on the achievements of the BJP’s decade-long rule. On July 23, Sitharaman’s speech presenting the full budget was just 30 minutes longer than the previous one, and conveyed a succinct message reflecting the new political landscape.

With an apparent hint of course correction, the focus shifted to job creation, putting more money in the pockets of the middle class, and giving the rural economy a boost, signalling that the government was sensitive to their distress. According to a survey by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, unemployment rate in India rose sharply to 9.2 per cent in June 2024 from 7 per cent in May. The budget’s job pitch may provide relief to the youth and the middle class.

The political intent of the budget outweighed the big-ticket reforms the government had promised before the 2024 polls. But what marks the continuity from the interim budget is the promised fiscal consolidation―with the targeted fiscal deficit going down to 4.9 per cent of the GDP from the 5.1 per cent set in February―and the infrastructure push. Also, the finance minister did not quote any poet, just like the interim budget, and kept her speech short.

What stood out was the prominence of new realities. The government paid the political MSP (minimum support price) to its two most important allies―Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party―as the finance minister announced budgetary allocations and a promise to get more from financial institutions. Together these parties provide the support of 28 MPs in the Lok Sabha and they seem to have exacted a cost as they wanted more than just plum cabinet berths.

Naidu with his 16 MPs is crucial for the NDA government’s survival and he has reasons to feel satisfied now that his dream capital, Amaravati, on the banks of the Krishna, will see the light of the day with Sitharaman promising Rs15,000 crore and more funds later, apart from a commitment on the Polavaram irrigation project, which aims to irrigate 4.36 lakh acres and generate 960 MW power. “It is an emotional issue for Andhra Pradesh as we were working without a capital in the last five years,” said TDP leader and Civil Aviation Minister K. Ram Mohan Naidu. “Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said we will take care of you. People see what has been promised before polls have been delivered.”

With Naidu, the BJP may look at a stable partnership ahead, but with Nitish, it has a chequered past. In an apparent poll pitch, Sitharaman announced Rs26,000 crore worth of road projects while promising more hospitals, airports, and sports complexes apart from developing an industrial node and religious sites in Gaya and a 2,400MW power project at a cost of Rs21,400 crore. She also announced financial support of Rs11,500 crore for flood control measures in the state. For the politicised state, however, the announcements may not mean much. “These are routine announcements. What’s so special about these? We want special status. Nitish Kumar has discarded the special status demand,” said RJD leader Manoj Jha.

The allies in Bihar and Andhra Pradesh might have got enough, but the poll-bound Maharashtra and Haryana failed to find any mention in the budget, kicking up a political storm. Former Maharashtra chief minister Prithviraj Chavan said the budget was only about Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. “And that is why Maharashtra has suffered. There is nothing new for Maharashtra. All that we got was continuation of existing schemes like funding for highways and metro,” said the Congress leader.

Sitharaman, however, said in the Rajya Sabha a day after the budget that all states were not necessarily mentioned in the budget. “PM Modi has already approved Vadhavan port in Maharashtra at a cost of Rs76,000 crore,” she said.

The BJP might have raised a saleable poll pitch for the assembly elections, but the government would have to deliver on its other biggest focus of this budget―jobs and agriculture―to get any traction in Haryana and Maharashtra. In fact, the subtle change in the government’s theme comes with visible emphasis on the middle class, an opinionated section of society that had largely supported the party and hailed Modi. This aspirational class had felt the pinch of inflation and unemployment, and wanted more in the pockets to spend and to save.

The budget made mobile phones and gold cheaper, two things the middle class spend a lot of money on. Wooing them makes political sense, considering their growing size. The government claims to have added 25 crore to the category in the past 10 years. The BJP clearly suffered from the strong undercurrent during the polls generated by a lack of employment opportunities. The series of question paper leaks has only exacerbated the situation. And, as the polls results indicated, people needed more than just guarantees.

The finance minister spent a significant part of her budget speech on job creation. She labelled it as the prime minister’s package of five schemes and initiatives. The package aims to facilitate employment, skilling, and other opportunities for 4.1 crore youth over a five-year period with a central outlay of Rs2 lakh crore.

An innovative scheme announced was of internship opportunities in 500 top companies to one crore youth in five years. The interns will get an allowance of Rs5,000 per month, along with a one-time assistance of Rs6,000. The Congress pointed out that the scheme was lifted from its manifesto.

“They should have the seen full budget,” senior BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad retorted. “It is a budget for the country’s progress.”

It was also a budget where the chorus to restructure the income tax slabs had been the loudest. The government gave in to the demand, announcing some tax relief for the salaried as the middle class that have been impacted by the price rise. The finance minister proposed to increase the standard deduction for salaried employees from Rs50,000 to Rs75,000. Also, the deduction on family pension for pensioners is proposed to be enhanced from Rs15,000 to Rs25,000 under the new tax regime. This will provide relief to about four crore salaried individuals and pensioners. The tax slabs were also revised to give benefits to middle-income employees.

The big challenge staring at the government in the next five years is going to be from farmers. As several organisations have been preparing for another round of agitation demanding legal guarantee on minimum support price for crops, Sitharaman could not have ignored it. In fact, she started her budget speech mentioning farmers and agriculture.

The forgotten dream of “doubling farmers’ income by 2022” has now been replaced with realistic increasing productivity and resilience in agriculture. “A provision of Rs1.52 lakh crore has been made for the agriculture and allied sectors with an aim to enhance productivity and resilience through missions for oil seeds and clusters for vegetable production,” she said.

Senior farmer leader Vijay Jawandhia, however, slammed the budget as the one which is fooling farmers. “The message for farmers is to quit farming and villages, move to cities and work on infrastructure projects on low pay and get the free ration given by the government and remain satisfied. This is new colonialism. This is a budget which is making ‘Bharat’ a slave of the new Super India,” he said.

The budget, being the first policy document of the government, has signalled that it was ready to listen to people while maintaining fiscal prudence. It was also the new government’s first big test. We will know the results in the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly polls.

With Dnyanesh Jathar

while-remaining-true-to-the-modi-governments-long-term-vision-the-budget-tries-to-address-the-immediate-challenges

Sat Jul 27 13:16:42 IST 2024

RS11,11,111 CRORE. Earmarked for infrastructure projects, this assumedly auspicious number in this year’s budget does have a nice ring to it. Another expected figure, however, was surprisingly missing―the $4 trillion mark that India’s GDP is set to cross this year.

What is not surprising was the absence of the usual hyperbole. Walking the tightrope between political expediency and long-term ‘Amrit Kaal’ goals, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had bigger shrimps (considering their regular appearance in her budget speeches) to fry.

TWO BIRDS WITH ONE STONE

While the political need of keeping the two main coalition partners, from Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, well-fed and happy was taken care of with an unabashed, almost embarrassing, largesse, a bigger issue remained―an economic boom that is not creating enough jobs and seemed to be benefitting only those at the top of the pyramid.

Sitharaman’s remedy? A two-pronged approach of pushing for skilling, education loans and job creation while doubling down on domestic manufacturing and wooing investment. The jobs push has a central outlay of Rs2 lakh crore over a period of five years and it would benefit 4.1crore youth. It includes not just schemes for skilling the young and providing education loans, but an ‘employment linked incentive’, which will pay Rs15,000 to new employees. The aim is to coax entrepreneurs and corporates to offer jobs, and also get more private sector professionals registered in the Employees Provident Fund Office (EPFO), by taking care of a portion of their contribution to the EPFO for a period.

“The budget’s commitment to boosting education, employment and skill building… are steps in the right direction,” said Raghav Gupta, MD (India and Asia Pacific) of Coursera. “The provision for gaining industry experience through internships with 500 top companies can address the rapidly growing skills gap and social inequities, ensuring students’ transition smoothly into high-demand job roles.”

The success of these initiatives, however, will depend on how well they will bridge the gap between classroom learning and workplace demands. “If implemented effectively, it could profoundly transform our educational landscape,” said Monica Soni, professor, JKLU Institute of Management in Jaipur.

The job push will work only if there are enough entrepreneurs offering jobs. This is where MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises) get some attention. Facilitating easier loans for MSMEs and establishing e-commerce hubs in MSME clusters form the crux of Sitharaman’s several initiatives for the sector.

Tarun Chugh, CEO of Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance, said the focus on developing skills and generating employment laid the groundwork for a robust and sustainable economic growth.

That exactly was the intention. “We want more investment to come into this country,” Sitharaman said after the budget presentation on her measures to woo foreign direct investment (FDI), which included slashing of corporate tax for foreign companies. She knows well that big numbers in jobs are possible only with big-ticket investments, and who better to do that than multinational giants coming on the wing of ‘China plus one’ and a prayer for ease of doing business.

STRENGTH IN NUMBERS

Of course, Sitharaman also knows that while big ticket foreign investment gives the country bragging rights, it is not the basket you put all your eggs in. This is where the many other announcements, be it the emphasis on energy transition, funding for innovation and research, multiplying capital expenditure for private space startups and, most importantly, the reduction of basic customs duty on a plethora of items come in. This reduction of duty on anything from solar panels to critical minerals like lithium, precious metals like gold and silver and many raw materials and components for electronics manufacturing, petrochemicals and telecom sectors are specifically meant to give a fillip to their local manufacturing base.

Take, for instance, the cut in the customs duty on gold, silver and platinum. As revenue secretary Sanjay Malhotra clarified, the decision was taken considering India’s growing importance as a business and processing hub for precious stones and metals. “We have 50 lakh Indians employed in this sector,” he said.

The ‘Make in India’ push is clear from the rejigging of tariffs and policies―telecom equipment duty goes up to 15 per cent in an effort to entice local manufacturing, while the period of export of goods imported for repairs has been extended from six months to one year in aviation and shipping in hopes of attracting international business in maintenance, repair and overhauling.

NIRMALA’S NIGHTMARE

While the government’s best intention is reaping a GDP windfall from a combination of skilling and job incentives plus businesses investing more money and employing more people, there is a recurring worst-case-scenario in it. FDI fell 43 per cent last year, the lowest in 17 years, with many foreign investors preferring Indian bourses to doing business here.

Domestic industry, meanwhile, has been holding off on investing in new capacity. This is despite a consistent pampering of the formal economy biggies with massive government spending in infra and logistics. While this has helped shareholders of India Inc fatten their wallets, a reciprocal pumping of money into new plants and new businesses has not happened yet.

One of the marked features of the Modi regime’s economic policy has been its relentless push for manufacturing. What kicked off as ‘Make in India’ back in 2015 hit take-off velocity with the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ package later and the production-linked incentives (PLI). But, with the exception of an Apple here or a Micron there, a rush by global biggies to set up plants in India is yet to be seen.

“India considers itself as a big market, but we should consider that as a per capita market and we are small,” said Rahul Ahluwalia, co-founder of the Delhi-based think tank Foundation for Economic Development. “For a global company, we may be just 5 or 6 per cent of their total market. That is not enough for them to set up their manufacturing base here, unless we transform our local ecosystem and make it competitive with what they get in Vietnam or China. Raising protective tariff walls and inviting manufacturers is not going to do it.”

Then there are concerns about the growing inequality. While the growth has been good, it has been top-heavy. Kaushik Basu, former chief economist at World Bank, said India’s recovery after the Covid pandemic was a classic case of K-shaped recovery. Sitharaman might be hoping to fix this with skilling and employment incentives, but she completely ignored it in the opportunity provided by the income tax restructuring.

ACE UP HER SLEEVE

Sitharaman’s seventh budget remains true to the long-term vision of the Modi government that local manufacturing is the way forward. While it was a blinkers-on race to notch up numbers till now, this budget has tweaked it a bit by embracing education, job generation and social sector guarantees.

To her credit, Sitharaman has stuck to her vision of spending big and dreaming bigger, even while pulling off a miracle of sorts by targeting a sharp reduction in fiscal deficit, from 5.5 per cent to 4.9 per cent. “Keeping the fiscal deficit target at a better-than-expected 4.9 per cent of the GDP while retaining the focus on capital expenditure is no mean achievement,” said Sanjiv Puri, president of the Confederation of Indian Industry and chairman of ITC Limited.

The robust tax collections and the record dividend from the Reserve Bank of India this year sure helped, while the additional revenue Sitharaman intends to mop up does stand her in good stead.

fixing-the-job-crisis-is-a-gigantic-task-and-the-government-must-apply-itself-diligently-to-it

Sat Jul 27 13:12:36 IST 2024

A FEW WEEKS AGO, the Reserve Bank of India published an article on the economy. The authors claimed that eight crore jobs had been created in India in the last few years and “there is no jobs crisis in India”.

It was an astounding statement, especially from a cautious, conservative and politically neutral institution like the RBI. The claim was lapped up by the BJP’s leaders, including the prime minister who mentioned it in one of his speeches.

The finance minister was silent. The chief economic adviser looked away. The NITI Aayog, that often sprang up to make bizarre claims, did not make any comment. No one asked the RBI questions such as how the claim was made, what kind of jobs were created, where were the jobs and who were the beneficiaries.

The RBI’s claim and the government’s tacit endorsement ran contrary to the evidence around us:

◆ The Uttar Pradesh Police department conducted an examination to recruit 60,244 positions in the state police, mostly constables. More than 48,00,000 persons, including 16,00,000 women, wrote the examination. (The examination was cancelled after a few days).

◆ Air India wanted to fill 2,216 vacancies of ‘handyman’, a job that involved diverse repair and maintenance duties. Some 25,000 persons thronged the Mumbai airport for a walk-in interview, and police had to step in to maintain order.

◆ A private company in Gujarat sought to fill five positions; more than 1,000 persons applied.

◆ Madhya Pradesh advertised 15 low-skilled government jobs. It attracted 11,000 applicants, many of whom were postgraduates, engineers, MBAs and even one who was preparing to write an examination for the post of a judge.

The jobs crisis is best illustrated by the examinations conducted every year by the Staff Selection Commissions at the Centre and in many states. In Uttar Pradesh, an examination conducted for 7,500 posts (mostly clerical), received 24,74,030 applications.

Unemployment is, and has been for many years, a serious problem in India. Past governments acknowledged the problem. The BJP was different: it flatly denied there was a problem. On the eve of the 2014 elections to the Lok Sabha, Mr Narendra Modi promised to create two crore jobs a year. The promise, among other promises, was described as an ‘election jumla’ by no less a person than the home minister. At one point, the Prime Minister said that “frying pakoras is also a job”.

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy measures the unemployment situation very closely. Its latest report has estimated the all-India unemployment rate as 9.2 per cent. The Periodic Labour Force Survey conducted by the central government has thrown up some uncomfortable truths. Most Indians do not hold regular jobs; they are self-employed (57.3 per cent). Only 20.9 persons of the employed earn a regular salary. Among graduates who have attained the age of 40, the unemployment rate is 10 per cent. The least educated are the least unemployed. The only zero-unemployment group is illiterate rural women.

The cry for jobs is heard in every town and village of India. The cry was finally heard by the finance minister after her government received a hard slap from the electorate in the 2024 elections. In her budget speech on July 23, she announced three schemes to promote employment under the description ‘Employment-linked Incentive’ (ELI) scheme. In essence, the schemes incentivise employers to hire more persons, especially first-time employees. She claimed that the schemes will benefit 290 lakh persons, but there was no data to support the claim.

The ELI scheme was a copy and paste of the promise in the Congress manifesto that had offered to amend the Apprenticeship Act and provide a one-year apprenticeship to every diploma or degree holder with an annual allowance of Rs1 lakh and with the expectation of a job at the end of the period of apprenticeship. I am naturally happy that the finance minister had an opportunity to read the Congress manifesto at least after the elections and take a leaf out of the document.

I emphasise that the jobs crisis is real. The crisis is compounded by several factors. An average child spends only seven-eight years in school. Nearly one-half of the students cannot read or write a simple text in any language and they cannot do multiplication or division. They learn no skills. Jobs have to be found for such children as well as for skilled persons, graduates, postgraduates, technically qualified persons, engineers, doctors, scientists and so on. It is a gigantic task, and the government must apply itself diligently to the task. It must first shed its posture of denial. Going by the finance minister’s speech, the government seems to have, at last, acknowledged the problem.

―Chidambaram is a Rajya Sabha member and former Union finance minister.

budget-2024-nirmala-sitharaman-expectations

Sun Jul 21 09:22:39 IST 2024

It is not in the nature of Droupadi Murmu to give surprises. The president follows the decorum and sticks to the protocol. But while reading out the government’s vision document in Parliament, her first address after Modi 3.0 took charge, she dropped a bombshell.

“This budget will be an effective document of the government’s far-reaching policies and futuristic vision. Along with big economic and social decisions, many historic steps will also be seen in (it),” she said, referring to the upcoming full budget to be tabled in Parliament on July 23. She also pointed out how India was the fastest growing major economy, averaging 8 per cent in the past four years.

If Prime Minister Narendra Modi wanted a murmur of anticipation to precede Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s first budget of the new government, that speech achieved its goal.

India had embarked on radically pro-market reforms after the Covid-19 pandemic. Some of these measures even topped up the economy outside of the ambit of the annual budget exercise, like the slashing of corporate tax for new businesses back in 2018, the Atmanirbhar Bharat and the Vocal for Local rejig or even the production-linked incentives (PLI) announced for various sectors from time to time. The budget itself had stuck to the script, coming out year after year on February 1 with consistent announcements of major capital expenditure plans―all in an effort to boost the economy by wooing in precious investment. It did not change even on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections.

All that is water under the bridge, or votes won or lost across the hinterland. With the Lok Sabha election outcome turning out to be what it was, there is speculation galore about any route deviation in Nirmala Sitharaman’s spending principles. Murmu’s speech just turned it into a deafening murmur.

So how different will the budget for 2024-25 be? The hearts of India Inc would brook no tinkering in the government-industry tango that had seen big splurging on infra projects. But the heart of Bharat, as the poll results indicate, sways to a different beat. What tune will eventually get played?

SHOW ME THE MONEY

Upasana, an interior decorator in Gurugram, loves Kapil Sharma shows and Bollywood movies but switches to news on the budget day for one thing―to see if there is a cut in income tax.

Income tax cuts are a sure-fire formula to ignite the middle-classes. But why would a government that did not bother to dole out tax reliefs before election do it after the polls? “I think the election results have been such that the government is under pressure to do something to cater to the electorate in some way or the other,” said Sethurathnam Ravi, tax specialist and former chairman of the Bombay Stock Exchange. “In any case there are some crucial assembly elections coming up in a few months.”

Shashank Pal, chief business officer at Prabhudas Lilladher Wealth Management, said there were three aspects to it. “The expectation is that basic tax exemption limits would be hiked,” he said. “Second is in terms of the benefits against insurance and for senior citizens. That would go up. And third is in terms of the tax slabs. That is expected to increase.”

An array of taxes are under the scanner, if the buzz is to be believed. Corporate tax, which was slashed in the first Modi regime’s push to get companies to set up shop in India, could see a rejig. New-economy companies are pinning their hopes on getting relief from Angel Tax, which is applicable to investment received by startups and the like.

LET THERE BE JOBS

Jobless growth has been the inherent irony of India’s economic growth in recent years. Before the Lok Sabha elections, both industry doyens and economists said in one voice that the main focus of the new government should be creating jobs. “There is a need to create a lot of quality jobs,” said Sanjiv Puri, president of CII and chairman of ITC, a week after the new government took over. His suggestion? An investment-led growth. “Investment creating jobs and consumption creating a virtuous cycle,” he said. There are, however, others who beg to differ, pointing out how years of big capital investment has not led to the expected boom in jobs.

Going back to the drawing board, what will South Block’s number crunchers come up with?

“We can expect a continuation of the big infra push,” said Ravi. But it will be with a twist. “With more on the rural areas than urban ones,” he said.

If spending can catalyse economic growth, spending in rural areas will be tantamount to killing two birds with one stone. Of course, with a specific focus on Bihar and Andhra Pradesh, home of the two parties propping up the coalition government at the Centre.

Focusing on small industries could help in this. “MSMEs suffered during Covid. Many got shut because they could not cope with the aftermath of the pandemic. Their rehabilitation has taken time,” said Ravi. There are expectations of a push through the budget to revitalise this crucial sector. “Initiatives geared towards stimulating job creation, particularly through robust support for small businesses, will foster a thriving economy,” said Jitendra Patil, a Pune-based startup entrepreneur.

NATURE’S BOUNTY

Despite the big infra push, the overarching shade in this budget is likely to be green. “There have been significant provision in the last budget on green energy, especially in terms of wind, solar and other non-fuel based energy sources. But in terms of trying to spread out, incentivising solarisation, transmission by the discoms and creating infrastructure, there is an expectation that there would be further concessions, liberties, discounts, rebates and cheaper availability of credits,” said Pal. With a National Green Hydrogen Mission already up and running, he feels that green hydrogen, too, is “expected to get some boost for creating infrastructure.”

And there are promises to fulfil. “You have to give incentives because India has made huge commitments to net zero and clean energy,” said Ravi. “Institutionalising net zero carbon goals through the budget could help―the cost of funding will come down as there are many global funds who finance [such projects] at lower costs. While the last budget also mentioned sustainability, this budget’s announcements will be more granular and progressive.”

THE GIST OF IT ALL

Decisions on the Goods and Services Tax are taken by the GST Council. But it is likely to make a transformative appearance in this year’s budget speech, even if the nitty gritty will be left to the GST Council. “Rationalisation of GST is critical,” says Rahul Ahluwalia, co-founder of the Foundation for Economic Development. “If you include luxury tax and cess, we have six or seven slabs of GST. Experts have consistently said that we should have only one slab. If there are political compulsions, have two, or at most three.”

Ahluwalia also tries to make a strong case against high tax rates. “The government has been trying to use tariffs strategically to cut down imports,” he said. “By and large, that has not worked. India has traditionally tried to use tariffs as a way to protect our industry. But it is actually the liberalisation of tariffs in 1991 that really promoted Indian industry beyond anything that had come before that.”

His argument is part of the big picture view that only exports will lead to growth, and that is where he has a problem with protecting domestic businesses with high import duties. “A tax on imports is a tax on exports, which is something we don’t often realise,” he said. “We think of ourselves as a big market, but per capita-wise, we are a small player. Unless we become export competitive, we cannot grow fast. We forget that from 1991, all of our growth has been export-led, though it started flattening somewhere around 2011. This government has tried, but our export has not picked up. Only fast growth in exports can lead to economic growth.”

OUT OF THE BOX

The use of phrases like ‘futuristic’ and ‘historic’ in the government’s vision document has triggered many theories about a grand announcement―a universal health care scheme, rejigging of the National Pension Scheme, or even a universal income scheme.

Pal would not rule out something as game-changing as an unemployment wage for those who are qualified, and a universal pension for those above 70 or 75, where “the government takes care of basic financial requirements”.

Such a move could take the wind out of the freebies the opposition parties have been promising, but has not the prime minister always been against revdis (handouts)?

“Modi has always expressed his displeasure, but a sobering election result would be enough to change your mind to do something dramatic like this,” said Pal. “If they want another term, they need something earth-moving.”

mapmyindia-ceo-and-executive-director-rohan-verma-interview

Sun Jul 21 09:22:14 IST 2024

Interview/ Rohan Verma, CEO & executive director, MapmyIndia

Q. What are the crucial areas the Union budget should focus on?

The government should continue the good work of generating economic demand and economic growth that is inclusive and covers all strata of society. Fundamentally, a strong and balanced growth is good for business, the people and the nation. So, everything the government can do around that would be relevant.

Q. What are the new-age legal, tax and facilitatory needs of startups and digital firms that the government should address through the budget?

Businesses require predictability and consistency. Shocks to the system or too many regulatory requirements over too much paperwork create problems for companies. A smoother way of doing business, fewer things that are onerous, that are asked of startups, those are the things that would be helpful.

Q. How can the government find a balance between capital expenditure on infra and social spending needs?

The government has been doing a good job providing basic needs in terms of welfare schemes to the people at the bottom of the pyramid, be it through the Ujjwala scheme, food rations and housing. And infra also, with all the roads and highways and ports, the government has been doing it strongly.

Ultimately there is a unifying theme, leaning to Atmanirbhar Bharat. Growing the capabilities or demand for indigenous firms and indigenous technologies, products and services will ensure supply and hence jobs and wealth creation, value creation within the country, and a certain self-reliance when it comes to various technologies. I think if the budget leans to that, we will be self-sufficient and self-sustaining in a strong way.

india-s-first-fully-fdi-hospital-sakra-bengaluru

Sat Jul 13 17:54:09 IST 2024

On May 11, 2022, Kavitha Shanmugam received a jolt of a phone call. “Your husband is alive and breathing,” said the caller from a North Carolina hospital. It was about her husband Pravinrajraj Radha’s bicycle accident. What made it worse was that she was in India and he in the US.

Kavitha and Pravinraj, who had been in the US for 12 years, got married in 2018. Kavitha was in India to meet her father, who had met with an accident in 2020. She could visit him only in April 2022 because of the pandemic. On the day of Pravinraj’s accident, Kavitha and he had been on call with each other till 3am, India time. Pravinraj had told her that he would be out cycling once he was done with a meeting. And then, close to noon, she got that fateful call from the hospital.

How bad can a bicycle accident be, Kavitha had initially wondered. But a call with the doctors revealed that Pravinraj had suffered a major traumatic brain injury and was in coma, with a score of three―the lowest score that came with an extremely high mortality rate. Kavitha was told that his chances of survival were slim. Pravinraj was in coma for two months; he did not respond to any commands, except for a slight movement in his fingers. He was advised rehabilitation treatment, but that would be a long and slow process. Since Pravinraj was the sole earning member of the family, it became financially unviable to let him remain in care in the US for long. So, he was flown down to India in a critical condition―he could not talk, was fed through a tube and had a tracheostomy done to help him breathe. When he woke up from the coma, he did not recognise Kavitha and would often ask her to call his wife; Kavitha would then leave the room, call him on his phone and talk to him.

That was July 2022. By December though, Pravinraj was on his way to recovery. Within a month of arriving in India, he was able to get up from the bed with some help, take small steps, eat and speak a few words, thanks to extensive neurorehabilitation with physiotherapy, occupational therapy and neuropsychology. Today, Pravinraj can button his own shirt, goes to the gym daily and is looking at resuming work as a software expert in Bengaluru.

“Even though I know he will never be the same person again, it is incredible to see how far he has come,” says Kavitha. “Had it not been for the rehabilitation he underwent at Sakra [World Hospital], I don't think he would be where he is today.”

Venkata, whose 17-year-old son slipped into a coma following a car accident this March, shares the same sentiment. His son had severe internal and external brain injury and partial paralysis of right limbs. The stiffness in his muscles was to such an extent that one could not get him to open his palms even after applying pressure. Today, his son can move his limbs with ease. He underwent movement rehabilitation with the help of a robot and was also put on the hyperbaric oxygen therapy, which treats wounds and other medical conditions by supplying the patient with 100 per cent oxygen inside a special chamber and speeds up the healing process.

“I never thought my son could recover from that fatal accident,” said Venkata. “A brilliant student, he was about to appear for his IIT-JEE when our dreams shattered in those few minutes. I think what made the difference is that my son got passionate and involved care here, which helped him sail through. Every single person at the hospital, from doctors to the attendants, wanted him to recover.”

Both these moving stories of radical turnaround had a common ground―the Sakra Institute of Rehabilitation Sciences, said to be the largest rehab centre in Asia, at the Sakra World Hospital in Bengaluru. The hospital, in its 10th year, is India's first ever 100 per cent FDI (foreign direct investment) hospital, owned and managed by a joint venture between Toyota Tsusho and Secom Hospitals, Japan. The 15,000sqft rehabilitation centre on the third floor of the hospital speaks volumes about the importance given to the rehabilitation process, which is in line with its ideology that every patient should be able to carry out basic functions independently before leaving the hospital. This is also the first rehabilitation centre with a Global Quality Accreditation.

“The Japanese accord a high priority and importance to rehabilitation and that shows in the way they have planned Sakra World Hospital,” says Dr B.M. Maheswarappa, who heads the department. “Secom has a setup for acute rehabilitation in all of its 20 secondary and tertiary care hospitals it runs in Japan. The Japanese give significant importance to a patient's quality of life and so they have dedicated an entire floor towards an advanced multispecialty rehabilitation institute. Here, patients, especially those with traumatic brain injuries and stroke go back home after being trained in dressing, combing, cooking, bathing, toileting and self care. Some patients even learn to independently make tea and coffee before leaving the premises.”

The Japanese way of life and importance to health care is reflected in the smaller aspects at the 307-bedded multispecialty hospital. As you enter, the support staff bows and greets you with a smile. There are no long queues near elevators―one reason could be the short flight of stairs inside the quadrangle. And, the canteen on the ground floor is easily accessible.

“One of the crucial aspects I want to highlight is the courteousness and civility one experiences here,” says Kavitha. “Given the anger issues that my husband was grappling with, everyone, including the person who came to change his diapers, displayed tremendous patience and composure. I think that is really important because if the support staff is grumpy and irritable, then it becomes difficult.”

THE WEEK visited the hospital on a weekday afternoon.

It was crowded but not chaotic. The spacious lobby was free of people huddled together in groups. The Japanese imprint is visible in the ‘May I help you?’ desk and the set of Hina dolls, dressed in imperial clothing of the 9th century, displayed near the entrance. Also, the staff here uses the Japanese honorific ‘-san’ at the end of either the first or last name. And, nobody here will be caught saying, “Give us two minutes.” That, in particular, is a pet peeve of the leadership that runs the hospital. And that is so because it values punctuality.

When THE WEEK arrived 10 minutes early for an interview with managing director Yuichi Nagano and deputy managing director Naoya Matsumi, they walked in within two minutes and were surprised that we were there before time. The duo also did not carry their phones with them during the interview, giving us their full attention. The two of them have been in India for a decade now and having traversed the country, they say, they have learnt a few things “that are so Indian” including “time management, procrastination and the deep urge to give explanations for everything.” The duo ensured that “adherence to time” became a part of the hospital culture.

“Initially, we heard ‘two minutes’ all the time. We decided this culture had to go,” says Matsumi. “There had to be respect for time and discipline. This IST should be accorded some respect, not ridiculed for being Indian Standard Time, which is people will always be late. That is a value we are trying to bring from Japan. Also Indians are very good with giving explanations. But this is a Japanese hospital and so no excuses.”

The duo also noticed some issues with payments. “When we started this hospital, I noticed that somehow payments to the vendors were being delayed,” says Matsumi. “Pharmacy company bills were lying here for days on end and were cleared only upon our reminding. Somebody told me this was the Indian way, but we didn't like it. This is not how an organisation builds trust with its vendors. So behaviours that are otherwise normal and natural in Japan aren't so in India, so our effort is to bring in the best practices in day-to-day functioning.”

Sakra was initially a joint venture between the two Japanese companies and the Kirloskar Group. The Japanese management took over after a fallout with the Kirloskars in 2016. Secom now owns 60 per cent and Toyota Tsusho the rest. “Hospital business is very tough to manage and this hospital was our first hospital in India, outside of Japan,” says Nagano. “In 2019, just before Covid-19, we began making profits for the very first time. But then in 2020, lockdowns happened and the number of patients decreased drastically. So we became negative again. But after 2021, we came back to positive again and now I can say that we are very much a profitable hospital.” So much so, he adds, that their investors have decided to fund a second hospital with 450 beds, which will come up by January 2027 in the city. At the new hospital, there are plans to set up a radiation facility for cancer patients, which the current hospital lacks. “The capacity of [the present] hospital is almost reaching a limitation in terms of occupancy and the number of surgeries,” says Nagano. “So we need to expand our functions so as to increase the number of patients.”

Patients THE WEEK spoke to cited several reasons for choosing Sakra. “When I compared the cost of the hyperbaric oxygen therapy in certain other hospitals in Bengaluru, it was much less at Sakra,” says Venkata. “The cleanliness and hygiene and civility among the staff played a huge role, too.”

The quick turnaround time in the billing and discharge was what worked for Sandhya Sri Koka, who was admitted thrice at the hospital for her asthmatic attacks; her husband, too, was admitted twice. “It did not take more than one to two hours for us to get through to the admissions or the discharge process,” she says. “There are no delays in either the processes nor in seeking an appointment with the doctor or summoning one while one is in the hospital.”

This, explains Matsumi, “captures the Shokunin culture” which is deeply ingrained in the Japanese society as its commitment to mastery, craftsmanship and profound connection to one’s work. “We came down from five hours initially to two hours of post-discharge paperwork,” he says. “Also, the billing process at Sakra hospital has been streamlined to less than 10 minutes.”

Nagano attributes the Sakra culture to the Japanese philosophy of Kaizen―continuous improvement in everyday operations. “It took us more than five years to establish it,” he says. At present, all employees at Sakra are Indian, except for Nagano and Matsumi.

Dr Raji Verghese, associate consultant in the paediatric department, appreciates the organised way of working at the hospital. “We have all the sub-specialties in the area of paediatrics, including rheumatology, endocrinology, gastroenterology, mother and child section, and we have even operated on pre-term babies,” says Verghese, who has been with Sakra for nine years now. “But we lack a paediatric cardiology section.”

Speaking about the initial hiccups in running the hospital, Nagano says, “When we were opening this hospital, Indian partners at that time didn't think twice; they were impatient and pushy. ‘Believe in me and my word, the hospital will be successful,’ they said. But Japan doesn't work like that. We see the market size, population, payment capability, income level segments and specialties―we analyse everything. But Indians think that we are delaying the process and they say that by the time you finish all this analysis, the market will already have moved on to the competitor. I think we are more cautious than Indians.”

This difference in style of working and approaching things could be why the Kirloskars left the venture. In 2015, Geetanjali Kirloskar, who was the hospital’s chairperson then, had written in an article about how the Japanese build business by building relationships. “The prerequisite is trust, which takes time. Thereafter they will stand by you regardless,” she wrote. “They reach meetings early, understanding traffic conditions and other possible delays and account for them. If we reach late, they will receive you politely, smile and bow. The Japanese arrive at consensus through closed-door interactions within their team. This synthesis of differing views makes Japanese style the antithesis of the agile management style of Silicon Valley, to which we subscribe.” She also added that while the Japanese were always courteous, never contradicting each other or their boss in public, Indians tend to be argumentative and aggressive.

Also, health care in Japan is mainly covered by government insurance. Patients there see hospitals as offering public service. Hence, their expectations remain low. However, in India, said Nagano, patients look for value for money in everything. “At times, and I am very sorry to say this, Indian patients are very demanding,” he says. “It is easier to please a Japanese patient more than it is to impress an Indian patient.”

Both Nagano and Matsumi talk about the “perennial problem related to the attrition of nurses in the hospital”. “It is a headache. It is more than 60 per cent,” says Matsumi. “It is very difficult for us to maintain the quality of nurses in India and one reason for it is that here doctors are placed on a pedestal but the social status of nurses is abysmally low in comparison with Japan. We place high value on the education of nurses and accordingly decided to take Indian nurses to Japan to raise their social status. There is a training and simulation centre for nurses at Sakra now.”

But why would the Japanese establish a state-of-the-art hospital in India? “India is a potential market. In the area of health care, we see more liberty and opportunities here,” says Matsumi. “In Japan, we have strict rules put in place by the government―there are limitations in terms of pricing…. It is an overall tightly regulated country. But in India, there is free competition. If we are doing good work and offering good services, patients will come.”

budget-2024-expectations-finance-minister-nirmala-sitharaman

Sat Jul 13 15:07:31 IST 2024

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has many firsts to her credit―from being India’s first full-fledged woman finance minister to presenting the first paperless budget to giving the longest budget speech. She will have another first when she presents her seventh budget in a row on July 23―the first non-Congress finance minister to do so.

Sitharaman is expected to make more than just statistical history―a lot will be riding on her budget speech. And there have already been some hints. “This budget will be an effective document of the government’s extensive policies and futuristic vision,” said President Droupadi Murmu in her joint address to Parliament a month ago. “Alongside major economic and social decisions, many historic steps will be highlighted.”

The new Modi government had signalled continuity by retaining most of the cabinet even though the Prime Minister had to rely on allies to secure a majority after the Lok Sabha polls. The budget, however, will have to address political considerations while maintaining fiscal consolidation and pushing growth. The massive mandates Modi received in 2014 and 2019 had given the government a lot of elbow room to push reforms. With an energised opposition trying to corner the government on every possible occasion, the government may be inclined to take a more populist route.

Two key allies―the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal (United)―run governments in Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, respectively, and they have been vocal in demanding special packages for their states. They seek financial assurances to let Modi pursue his political agenda. How far the Modi government goes to address their needs would set the contours of the remaining term of the government. The budget, which is the first major policy document of the government, is expected to rely on the BJP’s manifesto for fulfilling many of its promises on social welfare, cultural and reforms fronts.

The Rs2.11 lakh crore dividend given by the Reserve Bank offers the government sufficient financial cushion. It would come in handy in addressing the needs of the alliance parties and extending carrots to the sections of the population that ditched the party in the Lok Sabha elections.

A lot has changed since the interim budget in February, when the government, confident of getting a third term, did not announce any pre-poll sop. The marginalised, poor, rural population, women and middle class, affected by the spiralling inflation, voted for a stronger opposition.

The salaried class has not been given any significant relief of late. Though less than 2 per cent of the total population, they account for a large chunk of direct tax collection and play a crucial role in shaping public opinion. Sitharaman may give some relief to them by revising the tax limits so that they get more money in their pockets, which in turn would boost consumption and savings. Though the economy grew 8.2 per cent in the last fiscal, consumption has not been keeping pace with it.

“When the finance minister presents the budget, we are sure she will consider every aspect of tax structure, asset class, where all taxpayers can be benefited,” said a party leader.

Several review meetings were carried out by the BJP leadership to analyse how the rural population and women were swayed by the Congress’s promise to give Rs1 lakh every year. The government may opt for enhancing the workdays under the MNREGA scheme. “Women have emerged as the main swing voters who can change the elections,” said a BJP leader, indicating that the budget would have enough for them. “The government has given 33 per cent reservation in seats, last year, indicating its intent. But the population needs something tangible in their hands.”

Job creation remains a potent emotional factor among the people, not just the youth, as the recent election campaign and the results have shown. Creating job opportunities will come through continued focus on building infrastructure and enhancing the manufacturing and the services sectors.

In the past, the BJP had cited electoral mandates behind its ideological commitments, be it abrogation of Article 370 or implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act. The humbling mandate in the recent polls seems to have forced the party to recalibrate. Would it provide immediate relief through sops rather than schemes that have long gestation periods? A certain salutary message to those impacted by policy changes and unexpected events in the recent years is a political need it cannot ignore.

The BJP even set up a six-member panel to collate feedback and sent it to the finance minister. “In the last few budgets, it was laying of the tracks. Most of the structural reforms are already there. Now, we will move ahead. More reforms will be there. It will be a growth oriented budget for sure,” said party spokesperson Syed Zafar Islam, also a member of the panel. “We are already contributing 18 per cent to the world GDP. The kind of momentum we have in economic activities, we expect the government to capitalise on the momentum for more job creation and higher private investments.”

Modi could deliver the electoral message using his appeal with consistent nurturing of the beneficiaries. However, when beneficiaries get used to a particular facility or do not get it, resentment grows. That is when attractive sops influence the voting patterns.

Since the Lok Sabha poll results, the BJP governments in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan have presented state budgets where sops have been announced for the poor, women and farmers through stipends, increased spending, free bus rides and reduction in oil prices. This was to address the immediate concerns of the population.

“Budget is an exercise where inputs are taken from every section of the society,” said Islam. “It has nothing to do with the elections. We are the single largest party with 240 seats. We make policies after feedback from the diverse groups.”

As assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra are round the corner, the government may focus on target groups like the farmers, women, youth and the OBCs. There have been indications that earnings of farmers would be increased by strengthening the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi (Rs6,000 a year), expanding infrastructure for farmers for storage of grains and crops, extending credit and promoting crop diversification to tide over the increased political pressure for legalising minimum support price for crops.

Schemes like MNREGA and Agniveer also have a strong salience in rural India. As the opposition has turned the lacunae in the Agniveer scheme into a political weapon, the Modi government has major work at hand. Former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who has been given agriculture and rural development ministries, would need something more in the budget to navigate the tough terrain ahead.

While Nitin Gadkari may continue to raise capex for building highways, he would also need budgetary support to keep up the pace. The budget is expected to increase allocation for the health sector to increase the number of hospitals, set up more medical colleges, and even increasing the scope of health insurance from the current Rs5 lakh. The BJP had promised the benefits of health insurance to the senior citizens. Sitharaman may announce the new scheme in the budget.

The BJP had also promised more trains, be it Vande Bharat or even bullet trains. Given the political significance of the ministry, as it serves a large section of the population, the allocation is set to increase.

The budget session is likely to be stormy with the opposition trying to put the government on the mat on issues like question paper leaks, inflation and rural distress. The budget, however, will provide an opportunity for the government to grab some positive headlines by giving people something to cheer about.

future-of-energy

Sat Jul 13 14:59:45 IST 2024

LET US THINK of a world without power―imagine the electricity going off when you are in the middle of your work―now, your laptop, and your mobile phone are both minutes from dying, and all you can do is wait for the power to come back on. Without electricity, you cannot use any of your trusted appliances―be it your television, microwave or air conditioner―making the world appear like a truly dark place. Now consider driving to a faraway destination, and noticing the empty fuel signal on your car’s dashboard―we cannot reach our destination, or accomplish the simplest everyday tasks without energy.

Decoding the energy paradigm

Energy is an essential part of our daily lives, shaping our necessities and conveniences. While households once relied mainly on electric lights, gas stoves, and televisions, modern living now demands a variety of electrical appliances such as refrigerators, air conditioners, induction stoves, and microwaves. This shift highlights a broader lifestyle change and a significant increase in energy demand. Energy’s role extends far beyond households, fuelling transportation―from cars and two-wheelers to cargo engines, trains, and airplanes―and driving industrial growth across sectors like healthcare, FMCG, textiles, and IT. It supports communication networks, including telecommunication, broadcasting, internet services, and data transmission.

Considering the energy opportunities roadmap, the oil and gas value chain comprises upstream exploration and extraction, midstream processing and transportation, and downstream refining and distribution. Similarly, the power value chain involves generation from various sources, transmission, and final distribution to consumers. With the rise of renewable energy, the solar and wind value chains involve manufacturing, equipment provision, and infrastructure development, even as energy ancillary companies enhance this ecosystem by offering essential services such as EPC, maintenance, power storage solutions, and smart metering. Accordingly, the energy opportunities theme encompasses a variety of possible investment options across these avenues.

Upcoming demand for energy

India’s energy future is intricately linked to its growth trajectory―over the past two decades, India’s primary energy consumption has more than doubled, making it the fourth-largest energy consumer globally. However, India’s per capita energy consumption remains one-third of the global average, significantly lower than countries like China and Korea and as the country remains poised to become the world’s third-largest economy, its consumption is expected to rise substantially. In this scenario, power demand is anticipated to grow strongly, with shortages during non-solar hours, necessitating government focus to bridge the deficit.

India’s shift from agriculture to manufacturing, similar to China’s earlier transition, is expected to create massive power demand. Going forward, the increasing penetration of electricity and rising per capita income will drive higher energy consumption even as emerging segments like AI and data centres remain set to further escalate energy demand, potentially using more power than entire countries by 2028.

The best way forward

Even as you prepare to shell out more for the energy you consume, you can balance out the equation by investing in the energy opportunities theme, either directly or through mutual funds. Popular investment avenues include power ancillaries, the oil value chain, consisting of integrated refining and marketing companies, downstream petrochemicals, base oil processors, etc, and green energy, which comprises of companies undergoing energy transitions, and renewable energy value chains. You can also consider investments in the gas value chain, which consists of gas transmission, LNG terminal and city gas distribution, and the power value chain, which includes coal producing companies, and aspects such as power generation, power transmission, and power trading.

If you want to invest in the energy theme via the mutual fund route, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund currently has a New Fund Offer (NFO) focused on the energy sector, open from July 2, 2024, to July 16, 2024. The scheme’s investment universe includes companies involved in green energy, oil and gas sector, power and related sectors, offering a diversified approach to tapping into these energy opportunities.

Whichever route you may opt for, there is no questioning the fact that energy opportunities is the theme for the future―making this your moment to capitalise on the sector.

The writer is founder and director, Shubhgain Finserv Pvt Ltd.

a-global-leadership-opportunity-in-the-ai-age-beckons

Sat Jul 13 14:56:52 IST 2024

INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS reshape global power dynamics. The first saw the rise of the UK and Europe with coal and steam power. The second, driven by electricity and mass production, elevated the US and Japan. China emerged during the third revolution with electronics and IT, while the US surged ahead. The fourth revolution we are in―the digital age, driven by the internet, AI, IoT, blockchain and Gen AI―is shifting global power dynamics yet again. While the US and China have taken the lead, India is swiftly gaining ground in this global race.

The essential nature of data and AI is democratisation, making it accessible to everyone, regardless of background or expertise. India stands at a unique advantage.

DEMOCRATISATION OF INFORMATION, KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY

India’s phenomenal growth is evident in its 820 million active internet users and a 78 per cent smartphone penetration rate. It accounts for nearly half of the world's digital transactions. Social media platforms are widely used for content consumption and creation. E-learning platforms have democratised access to education, and government efforts like Digital India have further democratised technology access nationwide.

STRENGTH OF DIGITAL NATIVES

More than half of India's population is below the age of 30. These digital natives are adept at adopting and adapting to new digital technologies. They consume and create extensive digital content. And their growing affinity towards digital activities like e-commerce, social media influencing and digital education makes them a valuable resource.

DIGITAL PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE AND GLOBAL IT SERVICES HUB

India's Aadhaar stack stands out as a highly effective digital infrastructure, leveraging extensive data repositories to facilitate various services like UPI, digital identity verification, and e-governance. Additionally, India has become a global IT services hub with over 50 per cent of the global IT services workforce in 2022, up from 35 per cent in 2013.

ONE OF THE BIGGEST DATA GENERATORS OF THE WORLD

India has a natural edge as the data-first world unfolds around us, driven by a remarkable 1,00,000-1,50,000 times growth in data, the bedrock fuelling the digital and now the AI revolution. India significantly contributes as one of the leading data generators globally, accounting for a fifth of all the world’s data, owing to its large population and rapid digitalisation. In my new book Mastering the Data Paradox I have outlined a practical approach on how nations can build competitive differentiation anchored on data.

UNLEASHING THE WAVE OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP

China's global leadership is bolstered by substantial government sponsorships, while the US benefits from the presence of major tech giants, giving it a competitive edge. China invests heavily in programmes, policies and incentives to encourage innovation and technology development through entrepreneurship. Funding and subsidies like the National High-Tech Enterprise (NHTE) programme, policies like Made in China 2025 and billions of dollars invested every year in Next Generation AI Development Plan are a few notable examples.

In the US, big tech giants like Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Nvidia enable pace and scale of digital and AI innovation. They not only provide substantial funding for research and development but also play a crucial role in shaping the technology landscape and enabling an entire ecosystem, as seen in Silicon Valley.

However, the models of China and the US may not be the natural paths for India to leapfrog in data and AI leadership. For India, the way to capture the immense opportunities of the digital and AI age is to leverage its natural advantages and unleash a tsunami of entrepreneurship, creating millions of young entrepreneurs.

In the highly dynamic and ever-changing technology landscape, startups can bring speed and agility, enabling India to leapfrog and quickly benefit from the rapidly changing business and technology dynamics. It would pave the way for India to become a global innovation hub, tackling global challenges and creating unique market and industry disruptions.

India becoming an entrepreneurial powerhouse is not a pipe dream. As we saw above we have some unique advantages that we can build on, it is truly our time! India's digital infrastructure provides a strong foundation for startups to leverage and build upon, enabling startups to scale efficiently and deliver value-added services. The vast and varied population offers a diverse market for testing products and services. India's pyramid of digital natives who are tech-savvy and eager to embrace new technologies, make them ideal contributors to India's entrepreneurial ecosystem. India can capitalise on its position as one of the biggest data generators globally, allowing startups to harness data and AI to innovate at scale.

However, achieving this is not easy. It requires a significant shift in both mindset and approach.

TRANSITIONING FROM IT SERVICES TO PRODUCT COMPANIES

India has traditionally excelled in providing IT services. But as globally companies are shifting from building to consumption, India must focus on building and scaling product-based companies that provide end-to-end solutions to customer problems through innovative solutions. This requires a strong focus on innovation, continuous R&D and problem solving.

BREAKING THE EXISTING MINDSET OF AN ‘ORDER-TAKER’

We have long been the order-takers and, if we are self-critical, perhaps have ended up being 'coding coolies'. While it has helped establish ourselves as a global services hub, it has also meant that we have ended up playing only a supporting cast role, with the west enjoying greater control and benefits in the technology value chain. To climb up the digital value chain we need to shift towards independent and proactive thinking, be more aggressive as risk-takers and experiment to unleash creativity.

BUILDING CRITICAL THINKING AND PROBLEM SOLVING

As the business world becomes increasingly dynamic, developing an entrepreneurial mindset is critical to succeed in the data and AI age. Questioning the norm, asking 'why' is becoming increasingly critical. Critical thinking empowers individuals to question assumptions, analyse problems deeply, and explore alternative approaches to come up with new and innovative solutions. Shifting from the traditional technical-centric approach to education and workforce, to prioritise critical thinking and problem solving, is critical for success in the long term.

India’s independence led to political freedom, yet millions of Indians were left economically and socially disadvantaged. The digital era provides a remarkable opportunity for India to establish itself as a global leader. While India's journey into the data-first world and the AI age holds immense promise, there are significant hurdles that need to be addressed.

Seth is former chief operating officer of Flipkart.

health-insurance-premium-is-shooting-through-the-roof-and-policyholders-are-worried-sick

Sun Jun 30 11:38:21 IST 2024

Udit Bhandari, a real estate consultant, lives in Gurugram, Haryana, with his wife and eight-year-old son. He has a family floater health insurance policy from a private insurance company. Family floaters are health insurance plans that cover health care expenses of any of the members of a family, and they are very popular because of the flexibility. But Bhandari is worried, as his plan’s premium has gone up exorbitantly. “For a cover of Rs5 lakh, I paid a premium of Rs28,578 for two years (2022-24). For the same policy and the same cover, this time (2024-2026) they have quoted Rs39,500, though I had not made any claims in the past five years,” he says.

Bhandari is not alone. In a recent survey by LocalCircles on health insurance premiums, around 21 per cent of the 11,000 respondents said their premiums jumped 50 per cent in the past year. Around 31 per cent said their premiums went up by 25-50 per cent and about half of the respondents said their premiums increased by more than 25 per cent.

There are several reasons behind this rise. Insurance premiums usually go up with age. Also, there has been significant cost inflation in the health care sector. “In health care industry, the cost of treatment increases at the rate of 10-15 per cent,” said Ashish Yadav, head of products at ManipalCigna Health Insurance Company. In fact, prices rose massively during the pandemic. Bhandari said that in some of the top private hospitals in Gurugram, the consultation fees charged by specialists had gone up from around Rs1,000 to Rs2,000.

“While the number one factor that impacts health care cost is inflation, number two is unanticipated incidents like the Covid-19 pandemic. There could be a spike in various other infections and related diseases. Our lifestyles are also changing. There are increasing incidents of cancer and cardiac-related ailments,” said Yadav.

Another reason is the rapid advancements in the health care sector. “The medical field is constantly evolving, with new, often expensive, diagnostic tools and treatment options emerging,” said Tapan Singhel, MD and CEO of Bajaj Allianz General Insurance. “While these advancements are positive for patient outcomes, they contribute to the rising health care costs, which are reflected in premiums.”

Then there is heavy taxation. Currently, a GST of 18 per cent is levied on insurance premiums. For instance, if your annual insurance premium is Rs30,000, the addition of GST will take it to Rs35,400. Before the GST regime was implemented, there was a 15 per cent service tax on health insurance. A parliamentary panel has recommended to reduce the GST rate on health insurance products, especially micro-insurance policies and health insurance plans for senior citizens. “Reducing GST on health insurance premiums would be a welcome step, as it would reduce the financial burden on customers and encourage them to purchase health insurance,” said Singhel.

Health care costs have gone up so much that most Indians cannot afford them. The irony is a majority of Indians do not have health insurance, which would have equipped them to access these services. According to insurtech platform Plum, about 71 per cent of Indians pay for their health care expenses out of their pockets.

The silver lining is the fact that health insurance is growing fast. “It has now overtaken motor insurance,” said Yadav. “Covid played a very important role here; it acted as a catalyst, making people realise the need for health insurance and how much health insurance one should take.”

Health insurance has also moved beyond the vanilla mediclaim policies. Plans are now available for specific ailments, out-patient department (OPD) costs and doctor consultations. Amit Chhabra, chief business officer, general insurance, Policybazaar, said the demand for OPD plans had quadrupled. One can also buy longer-duration policies.

“Health insurance has become extremely modular lately,” said Chhabra. “Consumers can go for a basic plan and buy add-ons for features that they require. This can significantly reduce their insurance premium. Increasing deductibles is another effective method; while it requires higher out-of-pocket payments before insurance kicks in, it significantly reduces the monthly or annual premiums.” Several insurance companies offer discounts based on cities as well. A person living in a small city, for instance, has to pay around 40 per cent less premium than someone living in a metro.

Technology plays a key role today in the health insurance space. Not only that policy issuance and the claims process have become digital, but also smartwatches and fitness apps can be linked to the policy. Insurance companies track this data and reward customers who are active and fit with discounts and lower premiums. “The journey that this industry has witnessed is from illness to wellness,” said Yadav. “A lot of innovation is happening on wellness. The insurance companies are rewarding customers with good fitness regime.” If no claim is made during the policy period, insurers offer a no-claim bonus, which could be in the form of an increase in the sum assured or lower premiums.

The settlement of claims in a timely manner is also an issue with medical insurance. The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India has been trying to streamline the claims process. In May, IRDAI issued a master circular in which the regulator asked companies to decide on cashless authorisation requests within an hour. It also said no policy and claim should be contestable on any grounds of non-disclosure except for established fraud, after the completion of the moratorium period of 60 months of continuous coverage. Customers who missed renewing their policy will be granted a grace period of 30 days from the payment due date if paid annually, half yearly or quarterly, and 15 days in case of monthly premium payment.

The Union health ministry and IRDAI have set up a National Health Claim Exchange to simplify and expedite the claims filing process. “By creating a digital, interoperable and standardised platform, the National Health Claim Exchange aims to enhance the efficiency and transparency of the claims process. This initiative addresses the longstanding issues of manual data entry, inconsistent procedures, and high administrative costs that have plagued the health insurance sector in India,” said Chhabra.

It will bring insurers, health care providers and policyholders onto a single platform, facilitating seamless information exchange and improving the accuracy and reliability of claims-related data. This transparency should help reduce disputes and ensure quicker claim settlements.

confederation-of-indian-industry-president-sanjiv-puri-interview

Sat Jun 22 15:11:16 IST 2024

Interview/ Sanjiv Puri, president, Confederation of Indian Industry

SANJIV PURI, THE ITC chairman who was recently elected president of the Confederation of Indian Industry, has a clear blueprint: Ensure that the new ‘coalition’ government’s composition does not derail the economic reforms set in motion by Modi 1.0 and 2.0. And that there is something in it for everyone, the takeaways from the recent election results making it all too clear. Puri and India Inc’s first test in this regard will be the Union budget, slated for mid-July. And he has some expectations. Excerpts from an exclusive interview:

Q/ India is having an economic boom, but one that is not creating jobs. Is the private sector not investing enough at fault?

A/ India has achieved an 8 per cent plus growth at a time when the rest of the world has been under stress. So that in itself is an exceptional performance. Now, India has a demographic advantage. Therefore, there is a need to create a lot of quality jobs; no doubt about it. What should be the way forward? The broad approach to growth and creating jobs is around the model that has been adopted by the government—an investment-led growth. Investment creating jobs and consumption creating a virtuous cycle.

First of all, we need to look at next generation reforms, which are between the state and the Centre. Land, labour, agriculture, power, and so on, to unlock the productivity of the economy.

Number two, we believe that the private capital expenditure (capex), which also serves a purpose besides generating employment, strengthens the competitiveness of the economy, reduces logistics costs and increases accessibility for people to various services that may not be available in their location. Private capex should go up by 25 per cent. And there can be greater thrust on rural areas besides these two.

Q/ But that would again be from the government side. What can the private sector do to generate more jobs?

A/ I don’t think these two are completely divorced from each other. Clearly industry has an important role to play. Whatever items I am saying, it is not just for policy makers, but also for the industry to leverage to orchestrate the next horizon growth.

If you look at manufacturing, we are seeing that this sector is reviving in a significant way with fresh investments. There is also an opportunity in sectors that have a high employment index, where the employment-to-capital ratio is high. These are sectors like toys, apparel, textiles, wood-based, retail, tourism, media and entertainment. These are industries that need to be provided further impetus. For this, we are recommending an employment-linked incentive (ELI) with some outcome metrics.

A lot of investment needs to go into human capital development—skilling, education and health care. And industry also needs to do its bit as far as that is concerned.

For rural areas, we are suggesting integrated development hubs, where even CII can open model career centres and so on. Again, joint responsibilities.

As far as investment is concerned, let me say that the private sector is investing. The investment as a percentage of the GDP in the financial year 2023 was 23.8 per cent. The trajectory is upward. It is higher than the highest peak over the past several years.

This is also a result of the fact that a lot of good enablers are in place—the rationalisation of the corporate income tax, the PLI schemes, ease of doing business, the interventions on logistics, FTAs, the technology tie-ups that have been enabled through bilateral agreements. All of these are providing the opportunity and we are seeing investment go up.

Q/ You said that the industry’s viewpoint is that the RBI’s annual dividend to the government, which this year had more than doubled to 02.1 lakh crore, should be used for additional capex.

A/ One portion of it.

Q/ Looking at the upcoming budget, do you think the government’s viewpoints might just have changed after the election results? There had been so much focus on infra and capex spending.

A/ The larger approach is on reforms to unlock the potential of the economy to make it more productive. Within that, capex is just one part of it. I see no reason that should change because we have benefitted from it. The economy is doing well. Capex, in particular, increases the productive capacity of the economy, besides creating jobs. So we believe that given the impact it has had, there is a reason to continue, or even, accelerate the pace of reforms.

Q/ The focus on infra and capex, a lot of highways and airports and all, did not really work if you go by the election results, and rural distress is pretty real. If the industry has a wish list, what would it suggest to the government?

A/ Highways and all increase the productive capacity of the economy. These are all essential requirements.

Specifically on rural, we should acknowledge the fact that some of the stress is on account of factors like climate. And the overall cost has gone up because of external factors. At one point of time, for instance, fertiliser cost really went up. Then there are geopolitical issues. I would say India has managed that comparatively well.

So where do we go from there? The issue is to look at how to build productivity in agriculture, how to build resilience in agriculture. There are certain policy instruments that are already in play, like farmer collectives and digital. We have to now take it to the next level to create clusters, create ecosystems for leveraging technology in agriculture.

And the second piece is on social infrastructure. It is about skilling, education, health care. To promote the spirit of entrepreneurship so that the people in rural areas are also available as resources to partner in the broader economy.

We are also suggesting creation of integrated rural development hubs where all of these facilities can be converged around a cluster of villages.

Q/ What are the areas that the government should probably look at now?

A/ These are the areas where we are seeing the next phase of transformation—labour, agriculture, power.

Q/ What would be the Indian industry’s best-case scenario for the upcoming budget?

A/ Continue on the fiscal glide path. Continue to invest in the important areas of public capex, social infrastructure, agriculture and creating centres of excellence in tourism.

from-simplified-taxes-to-daring-reforms-india-incs-wish-list-for-the-new-government-is-long

Sat May 25 11:58:15 IST 2024

Most bureaucrats in the corridors of power in Delhi look forward to the summer. The pace of work gets a bit languorous and a good chunk, family in tow, go to their native places for that much-needed summer vacation. Many others take off to cooler climes―the lucky few to Europe and others to domestic hill stations and pilgrim centres.

A lazy summer becomes an even greater attraction in an election year. With the model code of conduct limiting the incumbent government from making any major decisions or policy changes and with ministers away campaigning, the pace of government work further slows down. It is usually a relaxed few weeks spent speculating on election results and extended tea breaks before the flurry of activity hits them in full blast with a new government.

This summer, though, things have been a bit different. The outgoing Narendra Modi government, in a show of super confidence in its fate at the hustings, has given them so much work that the bureaucracy’s hope for a ‘chill-out summer’ just melted away. It was set in motion way back in February. Modi initiated in a cabinet meeting the planning for a 100-day agenda that his government would take up after coming back to power. The plan was to be worked out by senior bureaucrats; a final list of 50 projects or policies to be taken up immediately after the new government’s formation, targeted at the grand vision of ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047.

The result? Senior bureaucrats have been scampering around attending many rounds of meetings and presentations. Officials from the ministries of finance, corporate affairs, and micro, medium and small enterprises have been particularly busy, with meetings and deliberations on topics ranging from rationalisation of tax rates to prioritising pending reforms. A vision document for transforming the country into Viksit Bharat and the launch of a ‘Made in India’ branding are under preparation.

But is all the planning in ministerial meeting rooms in tune with what the industry and markets want?

“I have a straightforward answer,” said former Reserve Bank governor D. Subbarao, when asked what the new government should focus on. “We must focus on creating jobs.”

For all the big numbers that are being touted around―a blazing pace of growth not less than 6.5 per cent; soon to be the world’s fourth largest economy―India exhibits a curious dichotomy on the ground. The ‘India Shining’ sentiment does not reflect ground reality―there aren’t enough jobs for the youth, and the rural India and the lower middle class are not yet out of the distress caused by the Covid pandemic.

It is not that the government has not tried. Through its Atmanirbhar Bharat packages and production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes, it had sought to exert emphasis on improving the state of manufacturing in the country. Indian economy had moved from an agrarian one to a services-focused one, largely skipping the manufacturing phase which many developed nations had gone through in their transition. The post-Covid world order demanded that the country focus on self-reliance and its own manufacturing capabilities, with the neat dividend of it being a job creator.

But there was a problem. Where do you get the qualified workers?

“Growing the way we are, we are not able to get skilled, disciplined and regular manpower,” said Ajinkya Firodia, managing director of automaker Kinetic Engineering.

While labour laws are one part of it, the stark reality is that India’s labour force is unskilled or, at best, semi-skilled. This is when India has grandiose visions of becoming a tech manufacturing hub, making anything from Tesla’s electric cars (Elon Musk willing) to semiconductors. Those leaving their farming days behind and venturing into industrial hubs eager for labour jobs may not fit the bill any longer.

R. Dinesh, founder and executive chairman of TVS Supply Chain Solutions and the outgoing president of the Confederation of Indian Industry, realises this gap. “We have formally educated workers ready to work, but with new technologies and artificial intelligence coming in, the process of manufacturing itself has changed dramatically,” he said. “All of it requires upskilling.”

While some corporates and even industry bodies like the CII have set up centres for upskilling, it might not be enough. “One of our asks for the future is for an employment-linked incentive plan,” said Dinesh. “Especially in sectors like textiles, logistics, tourism, hospitality and health care. And as we keep investing in those sectors, you will see that a virtuous cycle will be set in motion, because people get prepared and they get an opportunity.”

But it would be foolhardy to expect this mega job creation to happen through just big multinationals or the big daddies of India Inc. Therein pops up the most talked about, but yet-to-be-weaponised four-letter acronym in the country―MSME, or micro, small and medium businesses. It is still looking for a saviour as it has not come out of the troubles that Covid caused. Yet, the category offers the best possible avenue for job creation in a nation that desperately needs its GDP growth benefits to trickle down.

“With a new government coming on board, it is an important point for us to figure out how to support MSMEs for their own growth,” said Dinesh. He suggests creating a fund which allows first ‘loss’ guarantee (the government will cover a certain percentage of losses if the borrower defaults on a loan), developing a rating system that understands sector requirements, and helping MSMEs in their digital and green transition.

While advocating green transition is fashionable, India Inc, deep inside, does palpitate at its implications. Especially with India in advanced stage of negotiations for free trade agreements with the likes of the UK, Oman and the EU. It would trigger a new approach to the environment, carbon emissions and renewable energy, which can be an opportunity or a challenge, depending on how you approach it.

“Once the FTAs come into existence, many Indian businesses will feel that they are put at a competitive disadvantage as cost of compliance goes up,” said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist & director (public finance) at India Ratings & Research, pointing to the EU’s carbon adjustment mechanism that might make Indian exports to the continent more expensive. “India has committed to energy transition. So it is a very important focus, irrespective of whether you are a cement manufacturer, steel manufacturer or fertiliser manufacturer. Everyone would be closely looking forward to what policies are put in place by the government in terms of energy transition and increasing use of renewable energy as compared with fossil fuel energy. It will call to form the very best of the government’s balancing act.”

Another challenge is the upswing in real estate prices, which poses a question to the government’s efforts to develop affordable houses. “We need a scheme for really affordable houses,” said G. Hari Babu, president of the National Real Estate Development Council. “Around 10 per cent of our population controls 63 per cent of the total wealth in the country. So it is time we gave some subsidies to the other 90 per cent.”

His suggestion? Plan houses under Rs35 lakh, offered with home loans up to Rs25 lakh on a lowered interest rate of 5 per cent for the first five years. “The Central government should put in a word to state governments to lower stamp duty for their registration process,” he said.

In commercial realty, too, there are expectations of unlocking potential through relaxing stipulations. For instance, allowing special economic zones (SEZs) to use a portion of their land for development “made India the most preferred location for Global Capability Centres”, said Sanjay Chatrath, managing partner of Incuspaze, a co-working space provider. “We expect that the new government would focus on initiating progressive initiatives like the GIFT City in other cities, too,” he said.

The government’s economic direction so far has been in alignment with the interests of big businesses. The massive investment in infra, ranging from highways to ports and airports, the Gati Shakti programme and the digitisation of logistic networks have directly helped business growth. “There is a clear consensus among industry members that we are on the cusp of seizing an opportunity to use this cost competitiveness and digital differentiation to become more global,” said Dinesh. “Already, it is happening in certain sectors, but we see a lot more opportunities.”

The new government will also be expected to push for the three big-ticket reforms that have vexed the Modi regime throughout its tenure―land, labour and agriculture reforms. “The pending reforms in labour and land are very difficult,” said Sinha. “When it came back to power in 2014, the NDA government tried to touch them, and immediately gave up because of the resistance.”

It was worse when it came to agriculture reforms, and these ‘holy trinity’ prompts Sinha to believe that the incoming regime will stay clear of it. “On the contrary, they will look at infra development and improvement in ease of doing business,” he said.

But a businessman can dream, right? “Land, labour and agri reforms are possible, in our view,” said Dinesh. “Just like GST, when people sit down and discuss, we can build up consensus.”

former-reserve-bank-governor-d-subbarao-interview

Sat May 25 11:52:23 IST 2024

Interview/ D. Subbarao, former Reserve Bank governor

From standing up to the Union government to defend the autonomy of the Reserve Bank of India to criticising the deteriorating quality of the civil services, Duvvuri Subbarao has never shied away from doing the heavy lifting. As his latest book, Just a Mercenary, hits headlines for his questioning the Comptroller and Auditor General’s interpretation of ‘presumptive loss’ in the 2G scam, THE WEEK caught up with the former bureaucrat, who also had served as finance secretary and secretary to the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council. Excerpts from an exclusive interview:

Q/ The most satisfying and most traumatic part of your career, now looking back.

A/ I was posted as an officer on special duty for bottling liquor by the N.T. Rama Rao government in Andhra Pradesh in the mid-1980s. NTR was aghast at people drinking adulterated liquor, and losing lives and livelihoods. So he decided that the solution was to set up arrack bottling plants in every district, and I was appointed an officer on special duty for the project.

My first reaction was, why did they pick me? I had shown no special expertise for field projects, particularly for bottling liquor. I thought I was destined for bigger things―join the IAS and change the world. I was angry. I sat at home for three-four days, but then picked myself up. I said, ‘If I have to do this, I will do it. If I fail, that’s okay. But at least let me try.’ I completed the project three days ahead of the deadline. It was a tremendously satisfying experience.

And I learned many lessons. For example, that people should not fear being pushed out of their comfort zones. In fact, there are a lot of lessons to be learned from being pushed out of your comfort zone. In leadership training programmes, they tell you the secret to success in life is to discover your passion and follow it. But the lesson I learned is not so much to discover your passion and follow it, but to do whatever you have to do in life with passion.

Q/ With a lot of fundamental changes slated to happen, including delimitation, what would you say is the ideal way forward for the Centre-state balance of power?

A/ The amount that states can borrow has to be approved by the Union government. I believe those are good guidelines, although some states are protesting. States have to learn to be more self-sufficient and fall back on their own resources and see how they can raise additional taxes, improve governance, and improve the investment climate that will generate jobs and get more productive.

Q/ States also complain that with the GST, they don’t have control over revenue. Meanwhile, industry has been demanding that state subjects like excise and fuel also be included in the GST.

A/ I think the GST has been a great thing although we have had some implementation problems. As late finance minister Arun Jaitley said, it is a tribute to our fiscal federalism. The states and the Centre came together for the common good. I don’t think the GST should be seen as a mechanism that has actually detracted from the autonomy of states. That is the wrong way of looking at it. But, of course, states will complain―have you ever seen a hostel student who doesn’t complain about the hostel food? It is in their very nature to complain!

Q/ Richer states say they are not getting their due.

A/ There is some cross-subsidisation. For every rupee richer states like Maharashtra and Karnataka contribute to the central tax pool, they get back less than a rupee. Poorest states like Bihar and Jharkhand get more than a rupee for every rupee they contribute. That is necessary, even desirable, up to a certain extent. It happens in most other federations. It is incumbent on the richest states to cross-subsidise the poorest states.

But there has to be limits to it. And I get a sense that we are hitting the limits of that cross-subsidisation. There has to be some milestone set for the cross-subsidisation formula. It cannot go on forever.

Q/ We will have a new government soon. What are the areas it should focus on?

A/ I have a straightforward answer to that: We must focus on creating jobs.

The economy is growing at a sizzling pace, eight plus per cent year before last, 7.6 per cent last year, 7 per cent this year, estimated, and probably 6.5 per cent for the next two to three years. Yet, it is not creating jobs, because growth is coming from sectors that are not job intensive. Several economists who study these numbers have said that this pace of growth of 6.5 to 7 per cent is incompatible with the growth in consumption, which is just 3.5 per cent, which shows that there is unemployment and there is growing inequality. Unemployment and inequality are the two big problems and solving them is morally right, not just politically right. I believe it is good economics. We need to solve them because consumption is the biggest growth driver in India. We have about 300 to 500 million people who are middle class or lower middle class. If their incomes improve, they will spend that money. And when they spend that money, demand will go up. If demand goes up, production will go up, jobs will go up, that will generate more jobs and more growth. So, we need to focus on creating jobs and ensuring that benefits of growth are widely shared for our growth to be sustainable. It is an economic necessity.

We have not focused as much on job creation as on growth numbers. In fact, you are not seeing this debate in the election, it is all about reservations and freebies. How do you ensure that the benefits of the wealth creation accrue to the important segments of the population? Growth and inequality are two big problems that the next government must address.

Q/ You said growth is in areas that are not job-intensive. So which areas should the new government focus on?

A/ Let’s look at agriculture. Agriculture will not create jobs. In fact, there are about 70 to 80 million people, perhaps even more, in the agriculture sector, who are underemployed. If agriculture productivity improves as we want it to, agriculture will throw out 80 million to 100 million people. Those people will have to look at jobs outside.

Then there is the services sector. People think that the services sector is very job-intensive. But that view is shaped by the experience of a Bangalore or a Hyderabad, the software hubs. But if you actually dig deeper, you’ll find that software has created just about 7 million to 8 million jobs in a workforce of a billion. So the services sector jobs that have been created over the last 10 years are low-end jobs like security guards, cleaners and janitors. But we want higher-end jobs. So if agriculture and services are not the solution in the immediate future, we are going to fall back on manufacturing.

We know that large corporate investment is not job-intensive. But if large corporate private investment comes in, that will have a multiplier effect down the line. MSMEs and below MSMEs, even tiny enterprises. And those are job-intensive. That’s where we must be focusing on.

But on the supply side, we have to work on skills and on education. I told you about the labour that agriculture would throw out. They are going to be at best semi-skilled and they cannot be absorbed in the manufacturing sector right away. You have to make them job- ready. We have to attack the jobs problem from both the demand side and the supply side.

Just a Mercenary; Notes From My Life and Career

By Duvvuri Subbarao

Published by Penguin Viking

Price Rs799 (hardbound); pages 435

indian-economist-karthik-muralidharan-interview

Sat May 25 11:48:28 IST 2024

Interview/ Karthik Muralidharan, economist

It is unusual for an economist to make heads turn for his theories and philosophies rather than his politics or insider revelations. But that is exactly what Karthik Muralidharan seems to have achieved with his just-released book Accelerating India’s Development. The reviews have ranged from ‘outstanding’ to ‘essential reading’. THE WEEK caught up with this Tata Chancellor’s Professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego. Excerpts from an interview:

Q/ What is your theory about development and where India is going wrong?

A/ The grand debate in development has been about growth. [Economists] J.N. Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya will say that if you manage to get faster economic growth, everything else will follow. On the other hand, Amartya Sen and Jean Dreze will say that the purpose of development is to improve human life and therefore things like health and education should be a priority.

Now my point of departure in this debate is to say that at some level they are both correct. Because more growth helps human development, more human development helps growth. Then it becomes a fight about what you should focus on. The growthwallahs will say we need to do capital expenditure. The developmentwallahs will say we need to focus on the social sector. This is fundamentally a fight for budget allocation. But if you look at how inefficient the government is in the delivery system, then it doesn’t matter what you’re spending on, you’re spending it very badly.

Q/ You say our delivery system is flawed; the government says it has tided over this situation by using digital as a means of last-mile delivery.

A/ The modern welfare state initially had limited democracy, with voting rights only to white property-owning men. And that demographic wanted capital expenditure because they benefitted from the appreciation of capex. I gave this context because what makes India unique in human history is that we are the only country with universal democracy from day one. It is a great moral triumph, because it gives the marginalised citizens a voice in governance.

But the problem is that it expands the demands on the state before the state has the capacity to meet those demands. Because these other welfare states happened after they reached middle income status. The US, for instance, did food stamps for the poor at a GDP per capita of $18,000 (adjusted to 2011) while India did PDS at a GDP per capita of $1,200.

But what that means is that given the limited public finances of the welfare state, the lack of programmes at an early stage means that we have chronically underinvested in our governance systems. Because these systems only pay off in the long term, the political incentive to invest in governance is always important but never urgent, say, compared with a short-term scheme that appeal to the voters.

The current government has not expanded any of the major welfare schemes but has focused more on tightening and cleaning up delivery. And I think they have managed to do that very well in welfare programmes where you can dis-intermediate these layers. The unfinished agenda now is the service delivery that is mediated through humans. So, if you look at education, if you look at health, you can’t digitise away the intermediary. That requires a much deeper, sophisticated thinking on governance.

Q/ Whenever we have a very strong Central government, sentiments against over-centralisation pop up.

A/ We need to not focus too much on who has control but on what is good for citizens. There are costs and benefits of both that we have to balance. The benefit of centralisation is that sometimes you get economies of scale, better national coordination, better expertise and lower transaction costs. But if you over-centralise, you have to accommodate more variation across the country with the same policy. For example, Kerala’s needs are very different from Bihar’s.

Second problem is not about Centre to state, but state to local. The bigger over-centralisation in India is not from Delhi to state governments, but from state to local. The reason I am not sympathetic to chief ministers who complain about over-centralising is that they are the most guilty of over-centralising. So like [the late economist] Dr Raja Chelliah famously said, everybody wants decentralisation up to their level, but nobody wants to let go of power below that. So the important point is, go back to first principles of federalism and look at what is in the citizens’ interest.

There are aspects of governance where we need more centralisation, but there are other aspects where we need much less. India is the most over-centralised country in the world. One reason was the fear that local elites will not allow education of underprivileged groups or gender rights. So they over-centralised because of the Ambedkar-Nehruvian vision of a modernising state that will overcome the biases and prejudices of traditional society. They never trusted local governments. Unfortunately, that has not worked. If you want effective service delivery, you have to decentralise more.

But now, the good news after 75 years of independence is that people are a lot more educated and a lot more aware that they are able to resist if there is too much local elite capture. So that is why on service delivery we need a lot more decentralisation. But the action needed is not so much centre to state, but state to local.

Q/ What would be the two fundamental changes that India needs to do to speed up growth?

A/ The single biggest thing holding India back right now is the weak delivery of essential services. At one level, we have a very good system, macro fundamentals are good, growth rate is good, but there is very uneven growth. The top 10 per cent is driving growth by high incomes and good jobs. The next 30 to 40 per cent are migrant workers from rural to urban areas who are being sustained by the demand created by the top 10 per cent. Then you’ve got the bottom 50 per cent who are completely left out because rural stagnation is very real.

At one level, this model has delivered a certain amount, but we can’t accelerate growth to 8, 9 or 10 per cent unless you are firing on all engines. Right now, you are firing on only 10 per cent of the engines. The bottom 50 per cent is not participating actively in the growth process because they don’t have the health, the education and the skills required to participate. Services used by the poor, for the most part, are incredibly weak. The key sectors we need to focus on are education and skills, health and nutrition, and police and public safety. Safety is a fundamental determinant of female labour force participation.

Accelerating India’s Development: A State-led Roadmap for Effective Governance

By Karthik Muralidharan

Published by Penguin Viking

Price Rs1,299 (hardbound); pages 812

understanding-valuations-large-caps-vs-mid-and-small-caps

Sat May 18 12:21:35 IST 2024

THE PAST YEAR has been exceptionally rewarding for equity investors in India, with small-cap and mid-cap stocks outperforming the large caps. Returns of Mid and Small cap space exceeded 60 per cent each, while large caps yielded around 34 per cent.

This rally in market has left investors divided: some investors are now considering to exit the stock market because they are not sure if this good time will continue, while some others are still putting money in, hoping to get good returns. This trend is reflected in mutual fund flows, where inflows into mid and small-cap categories have dipped but remain substantial, surpassing Rs4,700 crores according to recent AMFI data for February 2024. These contrasting sentiments and actions of investors underscore the dynamic nature of equity markets, where strategy plays a pivotal role in navigating investment opportunities and risks.

Historically it has been observed that investors who chase returns often have a bad investing experience. This happens because when you chase returns, you might end up investing in stocks or areas that are already very expensive compared to their intrinsic value. Warren Buffet in his investing theories has always emphasised on the importance of not overpaying for investments, as the true value of an asset should justify its price. Hence, one of the most important parameters of investing is valuation as it helps in understanding whether a particular market cap segment is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued relative to its growth prospects.

Comparison of Large Cap versus Mid and Small Caps in terms of valuation

Large cap stocks generally represent those companies that are firmly established and are amongst the companies with the largest market capitalization. They often have stable earnings, established market positions, and relatively lower risk compared to mid and small caps. On the other hand, mid and small-cap stocks belong to companies with relatively smaller market capitalizations and is fundamentally not as robust and well established as the large caps.

When comparing the valuation of large cap stocks to mid and small-caps, various valuation parameters like Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), and Market Cap to GDP ratios can be considered. However, the most used metrics are PE and PB Ratios. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio measures how much investors are paying for each unit of earnings by comparing a company’s stock price to its earnings per share. A high P/E ratio may indicate an overvalued stock, while a low ratio could suggest undervaluation.

Similarly, the Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio compares a company’s stock price to its book value per share, reflecting the market’s valuation of the company’s assets relative to its market price. It is important to note that any valuation ratio in absolute terms does not provide a clear picture and should always be analysed in a relative context. Comparing these ratios across different market cap segments helps investors assess whether stocks are priced fairly, overvalued, or undervalued.

The recent rally in mid and small-cap segments, coupled with continued flows, suggests that these flows are driving the rally more than fundamentals. Currently, the PE of Nifty 100, representing large caps, stands at 23.18, with a PB of 4.01. In contrast, midcaps have a PE of 33.63 and PB of 4.59, showing they are relatively expensive. Even small caps exhibit high valuations. The market cap share of mid and small caps exceeds their Dec 17 highs, while large caps remain near their previous low in Mar 2018. Additionally, the small cap to large cap market cap ratio has surpassed 2008 levels, indicating an overstretched rally in small caps.

Further, understanding that different market cap segments perform differently during economic cycles is crucial. For instance, small cap stocks tend to be more sensitive to economic downturns, leading to weaker performance cycles and hence they carry higher risk.

Investing in Large caps

For an investor looking to invest into large caps, one of the easiest ways is to invest in a large cap based mutual fund offering. Here, the fund manager, will invest into a set of companies from the top 100 stock universe. From the offerings available, ICICI Prudential Bluechip is one of the oldest (15+year track record) and the largest in the category. The fund has weathered several market storms and has delivered consistent returns over the years. As of March 31, 2024, the fund delivered an impressive one-year return of 42.4 per cent and a healthy return of 21.5 per cent and 17.9 per cent over three and five years respectively.

Mahesh Kumar S. Is proprietor, Dreamz Finmart. +91 9842526928

understanding-business-cycle-investing

Sat May 04 12:36:25 IST 2024

EVERY NEW YEAR brings with it untold opportunities and possibilities in every ream of life and the investing sphere is no different. While you may have tried your hand at a variety of investment styles such as value investing, growth investing, dividend investing, and index investing among others, have you ever attempted business cycle based investing? If not, then 2024 could be a great year to try this probabilistic analysis based investing strategy which is slowly yet steadily picking pace in the economic ecosystem.

What is business cycle investing?

Investors who practice business cycle investing tend to keenly observe the ebb and flow of economic activity, known as the business cycle, while adjusting their investment strategies accordingly. This involves tweaking sector exposure within their portfolios based on prevailing economic conditions―for instance, during economic expansions, certain industries thrive, whereas others fare better during contractions. Therefore, the business cycle―tracking a nation’s economic expansion and contraction phases―mirrors the fluctuations in gross domestic product (GDP) and overall economic activity, which tend to be impacted by everything from workforce productivity, population growth, and technological advancements to external events.

Cycles and sectors at play
While business and market cycles are often used interchangeably, they measure distinct aspects; the former assesses overall economic health, while the latter gauges stock market fluctuations. The business cycle operates in stages, spanning periods of expansion and contraction, with the four primary stages including recession, early cycle, mid-cycle, and late cycle. Each phase, with varying durations, presents unique challenges and opportunities for investors. Industries react differently to these phases, with certain sectors demonstrating resilience or prosperity. For instance, sectors such as health care, consumer staples, and utilities tend to weather recessions well due to constant demand, while early-cycle expansion sees growth-oriented sectors like retail, construction, and financial services thrive, buoyed by increased spending and borrowing.

Is it right for you?

Now that you know the concept of business cycle based investing, we come to the question of whether or not this strategy is the right fit for your requirements. Business cycle investing entails predicting shifts in the business cycle and adjusting asset allocation accordingly, aiming to capitalise on assets’ performance across different phases. Investors who follow this strategy might purchase stocks during economic expansions and divest before the peak in anticipation of a downturn.

While potentially lucrative, this active approach demands constant monitoring of economic indicators and market trends, as timing the market accurately poses challenges. Therefore, this strategy is best suited for investors with the time and risk tolerance to navigate market cycles adeptly. Conversely, a long-term buy-and-hold strategy, preferred by some, eschews market timing, emphasising minimal portfolio adjustments over time. This strategy, while less hands-on, prioritises stability and may be better aligned with the risk preferences of investors.

Business cycle investing in 2024

Business cycle investing is a suitable strategy for 2024 and beyond as this investing style adopts a top-down approach, analysing how broader economic cycles impact markets, sectors, and individual stocks. Over the next half-decade, and probably further, chances are high that central banks, and their monetary policy movements, will likely steer markets, underscoring the significance of macro-oriented investing. The importance of top-down investing became apparent in the past two decades, with a global liquidity surge lifting stock markets from 2003 to 2007, followed by the global financial crisis causing a sharp downturn. In India, the government’s response to the 2008 crisis initially spurred growth until 2012, but it eventually led to challenges like high inflation, currency depreciation, and a cycle of non-performing assets (NPAs), persisting for years.

Across these and more such scenarios in the future, business cycle investing has the potential to ensure portfolio robustness, as investors pay more attention to the macros at play and pick stocks based on their ability to perform optimally even amid economic shocks.

Dhanya V.R., CFP, is MD, Wealth Plus Financial Solutions.

we-want-to-help-include-more-people-in-the-economic-system-george-m-george

Sat Apr 13 11:27:41 IST 2024

GEORGE M. GEORGE, deputy managing director of The Muthoot Group, looks after the hospitality business of the diversified group. But there is another responsibility that George keeps closer to his heart, spearheading the group’s corporate social responsibility initiatives. He says the company is committed to these initiatives and that is why it has not outsourced it to an NGO. It uses its vast network of branches to identify the beneficiaries and help them. George talks about his focus areas, plans and how he wants to do more for the environment.

Could you please give our readers an idea about your CSR activities.

We have channelised our CSR activities into three important sectors―education, health care, and environment. About 98 per cent of our projects fall in these three sections. Why are these sectors important? Education is something that is the basis on which we can build the economy of the country, if not the future of the country. India is going towards a $5 trillion economy, as the Prime Minister said, and we hope that as we include more people within the economic system, or at least people who are gainfully employed, it will help.

But that's not the only thing, because education also provides people with sustenance. Charity only gets you that far, but if you can educate somebody, then you're building a future for that person, and most probably for their children and their future generations as well. One of the projects that we are focused on is the anganwadis. They are mostly dilapidated, ignored. It is more seen as a provision for the urban poor, or for semi-rural areas. There are 68 million children in anganwadis in India, which is the total population of some small countries. We did one project in Moolampilly in Kerala, where we built the country's first smart anganwadi. Our aim is to do at least 100 in the next five years, if not more. We've already completed 25. It's called the Muthoot Smart Anganwadi.

In health care, there are many initiatives. For our Snehasraya health check-up vans, we are getting a lot of applications across our branch network. We have these vans going out there and doing medical checkups for people who can't afford to go for them. And then we categorise them into A, B, and C. A is the ones who are okay. B is where they are on the borderline. So, we would recommend that they go see doctors. We subsidise that and any medication that is required. C is complicated issues that require medical intervention. We are doing it in five states now―Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala. We've touched more than six lakh people.

One other programme that we did was the Cup of Life initiative with Hibi Eden, MP. It was months and months of activity, to educate women on how they could get rid of sanitary pads and use menstrual cups. We entered the Guinness Book of Records for distributing the highest number of menstrual cups within 24 hours. The aim was not to break that record, but it just so happened.

On an average, we spend about Rs100 crore a year. We could easily just give it to an NGO and get it off our heads. But we are present in more than 6,000 locations across the country, and we get requests through these branches for all these projects. We also have our CSR managers in key locations across the country. Along with CSR, we insist on ISR, which is individual social responsibility.

We are supporting traditional artists in a big way, especially those who are associated with the temple arts. They have contributed immensely to society, but have little savings. We identified these people who were well-recognised, but are now in distress. We give them an amount on a monthly basis―Rs4,000 to Rs5,000. We add more artists every year. We have decided to do it for another three to five years.

At last but not the least, the environment. We do projects, but I don't think we do enough. By environment we don't mean just flora and fauna. The environment comprises of everything within it. Like even society, people, traditions, culture and values… all of these are also important.

Is the geographical distribution of your CSR work proportional to your business?

The business is like 50 per cent from the north, east and west and 50 per cent from the south of India. And our CSR spend is more or less like that, 50-50. We never looked at it from that perspective, but today I think we've also had a lot of questions asked by the independent directors as well.

Is there an area which you would like to focus on in the future?

Environment. It's not flora and fauna alone, it involves people. It involves their livelihoods.

recent-initiatives-by-sebi-have-made-capital-markets-a-better-place-for-investors

Sat Apr 06 16:24:38 IST 2024

January 27, 2023, was a significant day in the history of India’s capital markets―they fully transitioned to T+1 settlements, which meant if you sold shares you would get the money in your account the next day. They went one better on March 25, 2024, as the stock exchanges debuted T+0 settlement for 25 scrips, which meant sellers would get their money on the same day. The plan is to move to instantaneous settlements next year.

The journey towards shorter settlement had begun when the Securities and Exchange Board of India allowed exchanges to move from T+2 to T+1 settlement cycle in January 2022. It was done in phases and took a year for complete switching. There were hiccups. The custodians of foreign institutional investors resisted it citing some difficulties. But, SEBI chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch ensured that all of them were ironed out.

Quicker settlements offer many benefits, notably the reduction of counterparty risk (the probability that the other party may not fulfil the contractual obligations) and the bolstering of market efficiency, said Rakeshh Mehta, chairman of Mehta Equities. “Furthermore, it is anticipated to substantially lower operational expenses for market participants and reduce the funding costs that brokers face,” he said.

There are, however, many challenges and concerns. A shorter settlement cycle would necessitate an overhaul of the market infrastructure, systems and processes. Also, it may contribute to an increase in market volatility. SEBI says it will continue consultations with stakeholders and the board will review the progress periodically.

Quicker settlement is just one of the many initiatives Buch has been pushing for since she took charge as SEBI chief two years ago. Protecting investors and reducing market risks feature high on her agenda. For instance, SEBI recently raised concerns over the rising froth in the midcap and smallcap segments on the back of significant mutual funds flows into them. The BSE midcap index surged more than 60 per cent over the past year and the smallcap index 56 per cent. Following the regulator’s concerns, the Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) wrote to fund houses urging them to put in place safeguard measures to protect the interests of investors. Though SEBI or AMFI has so far not put any restriction on fund flows to these categories, many fund houses have put certain restrictions on flows into their smallcap funds.

The regulator has also been worried about the rising investor interest in the risky futures and options (F&O) segment. As per its own assessment, nine out of 10 individual traders in equity F&O incurred losses of an average of Rs1.1 lakh during the financial year 2021-22. Now, many brokers flash warning signs on the perils of F&O investing when investors log in to their platforms.

Why not just stop people from doing F&O trading? Buch says, we cannot end up being a “nanny state”. Development of the market, regulation of the market and investor protection, all these things have to be balanced, she said.

Use of tools like artificial intelligence is increasingly playing a big role here. For instance, officers now need not read the entire annual report of a real estate investment trust (REIT) to check for the 14-odd compliances needed. The report can be fed to ChatGPT, a generative AI programme, and an output model has been created listing down all the relevant regulations. SEBI is planning to expand its use. “We just have to tweak this (the AI model) for InvITs (infrastructure investment trusts), and we are looking at deploying this for IPO documents and offer for sale documents also,” said Buch. This means quicker clearing of IPO applications, which in turn will reduce the gap between filing for IPO and going public.

Technology is also being used for picking up front-running (the practice by market-makers of dealing on advance information provided by their brokers and investment analysts, before their clients have been given the information) and insider trading, says Buch. SEBI last month slapped a fine of Rs7.4 crore on several people who were part of the guest panel of a business news channel. They had allegedly made profit on executing trades based on advance information of stock recommendations.

Buch said there were huge growth opportunities in India’s financial markets and there would be a lot of developmental work to do as well. But, at the same time, it will have to contain fraudulent activities. “Where there is money, there is mischief,” said Buch. “So, there will always be people who will come up with innovative ways to do fraud. We will have to come up with innovative ways to catch them.”

SEBI is preparing guidelines to rein in financial influencers. It took action against two finfluencers―Mohammad Nasiruddin Ansari and P.R. Sundar―for providing investment advisory services without requisite registration. It is also keeping an eye on the small and medium enterprises IPO segment, where Buch has flagged possible signs of manipulation. Some of the IPOs in the SME segment have got subscription 100 times to 900 times higher than the issue size. The BSE SME IPO index has surged 110 per cent over the past year, significantly outperforming the broader markets. “Anybody who approaches a merchant banker gets a royal valuation,” said Avinash Gorakshakar, head of research at Profitmart Securities. “The market is such right now that even garbage is getting value.”

Buch said that since the regulations and risks were different for SME IPOs, it was important for the regulator to underline those through disclosures to investors. SEBI is also working towards identifying evidence related to potential price manipulations in the SME IPO segment.

Buch also wants to deepen financial inclusion. On her agenda is making Rs250 systematic investment plans viable in mutual funds. Over the past few years, retail investments in the equity market via SIPs of mutual funds have picked up in a big way. In February 2024 alone, 49 lakh new SIPs were registered and SIP assets under management have crossed Rs10.52 lakh crore. In most cases, the minimum amount to invest in a fund via an SIP is Rs500 or Rs1,000. “In the next one year, we are hoping to make Rs250 SIPs viable for mutual funds,” said Buch. “Some people do offer Rs100 SIP, but we know it is not viable, so they will not push it. But, if we are able to help the industry make the Rs250 SIP viable, it will really open the door to financial inclusion.”

SEBI is also working on the growth of real estate investment trusts (REITs), infrastructure investment trusts (InvITs) and the municipal bonds market. REITs are publicly traded companies that own and operate income-generating properties. The income earned by the company gets distributed among its unit holders. Though draft guidelines for REITs were first introduced in 2013, the first REIT went public only in 2019 (Embassy Office Parks), and since then only three more REITs have gone public.

SEBI wants to improve the muted demand for REITs, and it has issued guidelines for creation of small and medium REITs (SM REITs). An SM REIT will be allowed to gather funds from Rs50 crore, issuing units to a minimum of 200 investors. This move has the potential to expand the REIT market significantly, as around 328 million square feet of office assets valued at $48 billion come in this category, according to the real state consultancy JLL.

“The REIT market in India grew from Rs30,000 crore to Rs1.3 lakh crore in gross asset value within a span of five years. As the regulatory framework falls into place and fractional ownership platforms overcome initial implementation obstacles, we expect the SM REIT market to experience an even more accelerated pace of growth,” said Samantak Das, chief economist and head of research, India, JLL.

Buch said SEBI was working closely with many stakeholders for the growth of the REIT, InvIT and the municipal bond market. “Hopefully that will be a big one,” she said.

the-latest-financial-education-event-by-aditya-birla-sun-life-amc-and-the-week-in-calicut

Sat Mar 23 15:07:06 IST 2024

On the last World Cities Day, October 31, 2023, Unesco picked a storied city in northern Kerala as India’s first City of Literature. (On the same day, Gwalior in Madhya Pradesh became a City of Music.) So, Kozhikode was a natural choice for Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC to hold its financial education event for February, powered by THE WEEK.

There could not have been a better venue to start the day than the leafy campus of Providence Women’s College, founded in 1952. The three-member panel in the college was led by K.S. Rao, executive vice-president and head of investor education and distribution development, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd. The other panellists were Rajesh Krishnamoorthy, non-executive chairman, iFAST India Holdings Pte Ltd; and Sandeep Sundar, then regional head (Kerala), Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd.

At the campus event, Rao focused on Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC’s flagship programme for students―My First Paycheque. He stressed the need to save and invest, and to curb the craving for instant gratification. “Amazon and Flipkart have more festivals than regions and religions put together,” he said. “If you buy on offer, you save 50 per cent; if you don’t buy, you save 100 per cent.”

Rajesh and Shree Kumar Menon, THE WEEK’s resident chief general manager (Mumbai), also addressed the students. Rajesh, a gifted percussionist, closed by leading the students in a chair-thumping signature boom-boom-bah, boom-boom-bah beat that heralds Queen’s ‘We Will Rock You’. It was news to the silver-haired (ok, salt-and-pepper) in the crowd that the song which was released 47 years ago (1977) continues to have pull among the youth. The warm response from the students and the faculty―led by principal Dr Sister Jaseena Joseph―testified to the success of the event.

In the evening, the venue moved to the Hyson Heritage Hotel, and the panel was bolstered by the presence of Uthara Ramakrishnan, the popular Instagram finfluencer and founder of Artha Financial Services.

After Rao’s opening speech, the panel discussed various topics. Uthara spoke on the need for women to be in the know of a family’s financial affairs. “I credit my father for empowering me to reach this position,” she said. “I wish everyone had a father like that.” Among other things, Rao spoke on using mutual funds for pension planning and Sandeep spoke about the ease and options offered by mutual funds. Rajesh elaborated on the need to have wills in place, and to have guardianship documents ready if you have children who are minors.

A word about the audience that filled the hall before time. “If this is an indication of your discipline, financial freedom is a given,” Rao told the audience. An active audience meant that the panel had to wind up early to take questions from the crowd. And, as always, after the event was over and the snack bar was running low, much of the audience stayed back to pull panellists aside for a quiet word and general guidance.

consolidation-is-the-way-ahead-in-the-visual-media-segment-and-corporate-money-is-fuelling-it

Sat Mar 09 15:25:21 IST 2024

In a recent advertisement, Sachin Tendulkar urges the audience to watch the Indian Premier League “only on” JioCinema. Clearly, when the ad was commissioned, the brief was to draw the audience away from Star Sports, which also will telecast the IPL starting on March 22. After the new turn of events, however, it seems neither Tendulkar nor JioCinema would mind people watching on either platform.

When the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) sold the IPL broadcasting rights for the 2023-27 cycle, the rights for digital platforms and television were split into two packages. Star Sports, controlled by Disney, retained the television rights paying Rs23,575 crore and Viacom18 (JioCinema’s parent, owned by Reliance Industries Ltd) bagged the digital rights for Rs20,500 crore. And the two engaged in an advertising war. JioCinema got cricketers M.S. Dhoni and Suryakumar Yadav encouraging fans to watch the matches live from anywhere. Star Sports roped in Virat Kohli to emphasise the experience of watching it on television screens. JioCinema stumped everyone by streaming IPL for free.

The rivalry, however, has become a thing of the past, as Viacom18 and Disney are joining hands to create a 070,000-crore media giant. The media undertaking of Viacom18 will be merged into Star India Private Limited through a court-approved scheme of arrangement. Reliance will invest Rs11,500 crore in the joint venture in which Viacom18 will hold 46.82 per cent, Disney 36.84 per cent and Reliance 16.34 per cent.

The JV will be unparalleled in size and scale on the Indian visual media landscape. The new entity will become the largest broadcaster in the country with 110 television channels in multiple languages, two leading OTT streaming platforms (JioCinema and Disney+ Hotstar) and a viewer base of 750 million across the country. It is estimated that the it will have around 40 per cent market share in advertising and subscription. It will have in its kitty top satellite channels such as Star Plus, Colors, Star Gold, Star Sports and Sports18, and content from the vast library of Walt Disney. JioCinema also has the rights to stream the popular HBO shows.

But the prize catch will be cricket. “BCCI rights (television and digital) are with Viacom18, whereas International Cricket Council (ICC) rights are with Disney-Star. Further, digital rights of IPL are with Viacom18, while television rights are with Disney-Star. In effect, post-merger, the JV will emerge as a cricketing rights powerhouse,” said Jinesh Joshi, analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher.

It will have a significant presence in football broadcast as well with the popular English Premier League on Star Sports and Hotstar, and the Indian Super League and the Spanish LaLiga on Sports18 and JioCinema.

There will be a lot of synergies in the combined entity. “On the OTT side, despite being a late entrant, JioCinema has expanded aggressively, initially by bagging IPL rights and subsequently with the content of NBC Universal and Warner Bros. However, it still lacks a big content library, which has prevented it from building up a sizeable subscriber base. Disney+ Hotstar, on the other hand, has been a market leader in terms of paid subscribers. With this merger, JioCinema can take advantage of Hotstar’s superior technology,” said Pulkit Chawla, analyst at Emkay Global Financial Services.

There will be some cross-leveraging beyond the segment as well. RIL’s Jio is the largest player in the telecom space and the company could make use of this base to offer bundled plans.

The merger comes at a time when streaming platforms are seriously thinking about tweaking their subscription-based model in favour of advertising supported video on demand (AVOD). “In the OTT segment, 2023 saw subscription video on demand (SVOD) models take a bit of a backseat, with premium sports available for free across almost all platforms,” said Vibhor Gauba, associate partner, KPMG in India. “We believe that 2024 will continue to see the same phenomenon and hence SVOD monetisation is likely to be under pressure. Also, consumption is likely to see a robust growth, with premium sports properties primed to gain from advertisement/AVOD spends on digital.”

Two other major players, Zee Entertainment and Sony Pictures Network, were also in an advanced stage of a merger but it was called off by Sony. The deal had received most approvals, including from shareholders and the Competition Commission of India. Sony has filed a case in Singapore Arbitration Centre seeking compensation from Zee for not meeting the criteria for the merger, and Zee has approached the National Company Law Tribunal in a bid to get the merger deal enforced. For either party, the termination of the deal is a setback as they will have to take on the might of the combined strength of Disney and Viacom.

A merger between Zee and Sony could have created an entertainment behemoth with 75 channels, and Sony was planning to infuse $1.5 billion in the merged entity, which could have been utilised for content acquisition. This could have been a strong competitor to the Reliance-Disney JV.

Zee’s managing director Punit Goenka, however, remains upbeat on the network’s prospects. He said his company’s intrinsic value remained intact, and he had chalked out a structured plan to bring back its margins to industry-beating levels. “How I envisage taking the company forward in the coming quarters is centred on three key aspects. The first is frugality, the second is optimisation, and the third, the most important, is sharp focus on quality content,” said Goenka.

But analysts are concerned. “Though Zee is actively implementing measures to revive the business and efficiently run business operations as a stand-alone entity, concerns around weak financial positioning, corporate governance, and litigation outcomes continue to remain,” said Chirag Maroo, research analyst at Keynote Capital.

The focus of major broadcasters on OTT comes as no surprise―it is where the future is. According to the consulting firm PwC, India’s OTT revenue is expected to grow at a 14.32 per cent compounded annual rate to Rs3.51 lakh crore by 2027. It was only Rs1.80 lakh crore in 2022.

Content in regional languages has undoubtedly been a big driver of OTT growth. It is estimated that more than half of the movies on OTT platforms are regional titles. Similarly, regional content accounts for nearly half of the original content on OTT. According to PwC, “OTT video will continue to get its boost from regional play.”

OTT has also given companies a platform to expand their offerings in sports. Earlier, cricket and the major events in football, hockey and tennis accounted for bulk of sports coverage. But, today, companies have leveraged OTT to drive sports broadcasting in e-sports, kabbadi, basketball and volleyball, in addition to deepening the coverage in existing sports programming.

Not surprisingly, advertisers are also looking at digital marketing in a big way, with television advertising seeing a muted growth. As per an estimate of FICCI and EY, entertainment OTT platforms will generate around Rs6,000 crore of advertising by 2025.

Big companies are better positioned than the smaller ones to benefit from this booming market, as they could exercise significant bargaining power with advertisers and viewers. “Even the subscription business will get a fillip as bouquets [of channels] will be created around sports,” said Joshi of Prabhudas Lilladher. “Further, they may consider putting sports content behind paywall and raise subscription prices for OTT packs as well.”

Clearly, consolidation is the way ahead in the segment. “Consolidation should happen in the industry,” said Chawla. “Small individual players cannot take on Reliance and Disney. So, it becomes necessary for the smaller players to get together.”

Infusion of corporate money has also accelerated the consolidation. Adani Group took big media bets with its AMG Media Networks acquiring news broadcaster NDTV in 2022 . It has started expanding to regional languages. In December 2023, Adani Enterprises acquired a majority stake in the news agency IANS. It also controls Quintillion Business Media. “At the moment, the focus is to consolidate, expand the offerings across platforms and grow these businesses to become a preferred news destination for Indians in India and for a global audience,” said a spokesperson for AMG Media Networks.

Will there be an Adani vs Ambani battle in the entertainment broadcasting space, too? Will Zee and Sony shake hands again or will a new suitor emerge? Will OTT trump television as 5G gains traction? The broadcasting space has all the ingredients of a gripping soap opera.

itc-hit-the-ground-running-when-the-government-s-millets-initiative-took-off

Fri Feb 16 15:26:10 IST 2024

BUSINESSMAN, agriculture innovator, professional entrepreneur, social reformer. The last one is one epithet S. Sivakumar, head of ITC's agri-business division, may do a double-take on, but it is certainly true.

In the early 2000s, ITC's e-Choupal empowered lakhs of farmers through digitisation. An internet kiosk installed in select villages provided valuable information on anything from weather conditions for farming to procurement price at various mandis. While it became a much feted bridge between technology and the farming community, few actually know that it almost came unstuck because of one stark Indian reality―caste.

Initially, the internet kiosk was installed in the house of a Choupal sanchalak, a coordinator selected by the company, in each village. That sparked off the first roadblock―many villagers complained that at least two kiosks should be provided, for each of the two dominant castes in the area.

After much deliberation, the company put its foot down. “Our belief was that we were building an economic institution, and it should be agnostic to social and political aspects,” said Sivakumar. “We said we would follow the screening parameters for an ideal sanchalak, and then see if other [castes] would use it or not.”

While those not from the same caste as the sanchalak kept away during the following sowing and harvest season, the differences slowly started to dissolve by the second and third seasons, as the economic benefits of getting on the platform became evident to the villagers.

“First, farmers sent their sons to ask about prices; then by next season, it seemed as if the caste differences became secondary. I think social equity was an indirect benefit which came through because of this economic primacy. So long as the value was demonstrated, the other issues took a back seat,” said Sivakumar.

Another pleasant outcome of e-Choupal was women empowerment. Even in the conservative villages of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, women started participating “a lot more, in terms of decision-making on when and where to sell.” They also started asking about additional source of livelihood for women, beyond agriculture. This led to ventures like incense sticks.

Using the internet and technology to further progress, be it in a boardroom or on a farm, may today sound so commonplace. But e-Choupal pioneered it in more ways than one, as does its post-millennial avatar, ITC MAARS (Metamarket for Advanced Agriculture and Rural Services). But for Sivakumar, who is on to his fourth decade at ITC, it has always been about staying ahead of the curve and innovating to make that decisive impact.

Nothing exemplified this better than how the company hit the ground running when the government’s millets initiative took off, with the UN and its Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) declaring 2023 as the ‘International Year of Millets’. Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that India was “honoured to be at the forefront of popularising millets”, while FAO Director General Qu Dongyu pointed out how millets can “empower smallholder farmers, achieve sustainable development, eliminate hunger, adapt to climate change, promote biodiversity, and transform agri-food systems”.

Not to forget its superfood benefits. “Bajra boasts gut-friendly fibre and kodu millet aides in cholesterol control. Ragi provides vital calcium and fibre, which is particularly beneficial for new mothers. Millets are naturally anti-acidic, rich in niacin, are gluten-free and low on the glycaemic index,” said nutritionist Suman Agarwal.

Sivakumar already knew that. While the data tracking division of ITC had noticed the consumer trend towards wellness, the agribusiness and its push for climate-smart agriculture had hit upon millet cultivation as a panacea for many ills plaguing the system―their cultivation consumed less water, and the crops were more climate resilient, hence providing high productivity. Also, a good chunk of existing millet crops were going off as animal feed, for malting or for the farmer’s own consumption at home, with only a small portion going out into the market.

In fact, Aashirvaad, ITC's atta brand, had come up with a millet-based variant even before the UN announcement. But there was an impediment―most consumers did not know what to do with it.

“We realised the consumer was used to rice and wheat, but did not know what to do with kodo and bajra and all that,” said Sivakumar. “Even simple things like making a (millet) roti is a complex process because there is not enough gluten to roll them into proper rotis.”

Entered ITC’s other divisions. While chefs from its hotels (as well as many other leading star hotels in the country) whipped up recipes incorporating millets, the consumer foods division unleashed a campaign to raise awareness, releasing millet-based products from biscuits and noodles to poha and even chocolates. “The government provided both the highway and the fuel. And so we built the right car, and hopefully it will scale,” said Sivakumar. The crowning glory was when ITC was enlisted as the caterer to the world leaders at the G20 Summit at Delhi’s Bharat Mandapam last year, where it unleashed an array of millet-based haute cuisine.

“The vectors of growth will happen slowly,” said Sivakumar. “If you look at the total consumption of all grains to that of millets, millets is still a small fraction. (But) consumers who are using millets have adapted to it. But what it used to be versus what it is now, it has grown manifold.”

The ITC agribusiness team is already on to its future forward ventures. “In terms of value-added products, we are working on medicinal and aromatic plants that are major ingredients in nutraceuticals,” said Sivakumar. Focus now is on scientific segregation of properties and efficacies of traditional Indian formulations, the various herbs and spices, and also, with a backend traceable value chain, all cultivated sustainably using climate smart agriculture methods.

unveiling-the-dynamics-of-large-and-mid-cap-category

Sat Feb 03 12:33:21 IST 2024

IN THE VAST and ever-evolving realm of investment opportunities, investors are often presented with a spectrum of choices. Among these, the large- and mid-cap category stands out as a nuanced and strategic option, offering a blend of stability and growth.

Large-cap: The pillar of stability

Large-cap, short for large capitalisation, are companies that form the top 100 companies in the average market capitalisation. The list for the same is published on the AMFI website every six months. Market capitalisation is calculated by multiplying the company’s current stock price by the total number of outstanding shares. These companies are often industry leaders, characterised by their stability, established market presence and significant market share.

Investing in large-cap stocks provides a degree of stability that appeals to risk-averse investors. These companies are generally well-established, with a proven track record of weathering economic downturns. They often also have a global presence, diversified revenue streams and the financial strength to withstand market fluctuations.

Mid-cap: The sweet spot of growth

Mid-capitalisation companies are the 101 to 250 of the largest companies on the stock exchange. Mid-cap stocks represent a diverse group of companies that have outgrown their small-cap status but are still in the growth phase.

Mid-cap stocks are often seen as the sweet spot for growth-oriented investors. These companies, while not as established as their large-cap counterparts, have the potential for substantial expansion. They are agile, responsive to market trends and have the capacity to capitalise on emerging opportunities.

The power of combination

The large- and mid-cap category is a strategic fusion of both large-cap and mid-cap stocks. Herein, the fund manager must maintain large-cap and mid-cap exposure at a minimum of 35 per cent each.

In times of economic uncertainty or market downturns, large-cap stocks act as a stabilising force. Meanwhile, mid-cap stocks contribute to the portfolio’s overall growth potential, ensuring that investors are not solely reliant on established giants but are also positioned to benefit from the dynamism of mid-sized, high-potential companies.

Why you should invest in large- and mid-cap

The large- and mid-cap category caters to a broad spectrum of investors, each with distinct preferences and risk appetites. For example, investors enthusiastic about diversifying their portfolios across market caps and sectors can leverage the large- and mid-cap categories to achieve a well-rounded mix.

Next, investing in this category can help an investor ride out market cycles, capitalising on both stability and growth over an extended period. However, the caveat here is that these investments should be made at least with an investment horizon of five-plus years.

Furthermore, this category offers a comprehensive solution that caters to a diverse range of long-term investment objectives such as creating a corpus for retirement, child’s education or marriage.

Taxation

When you decide to redeem the units of your large- and mid-cap fund, you realise that capital gains are subject to taxation. The applicable tax rate, however, hinges on the duration of your investment in the fund, commonly referred to as the holding period. Capital gains accrued during a holding period of less than one year are termed short-term capital gains (STCG) and are subject to a tax rate of 15 per cent.

Conversely, capital gains acquired from a holding period exceeding a year fall under long-term capital gains (LTCG). As per the current regulations, gains surpassing Rs1 lakh incur a tax of 10 per cent without any benefit from indexation.

There are 26 offerings with a total asset under management of Rs1.75 lakh crore in this category. Within these, one of the consistent performers with over two decades of track record is ICICI Prudential Large & Midcap Fund. Over the last three years, the fund has delivered returns of 20.56 per cent and 27.66 per cent compared to its benchmark, which delivered 19.92 per cent and 23.34 per cent.

Deepesh Mehta is founder, Happy Investor Finserv LLP

nmdc-chairman-and-managing-director-amitava-mukherjee-interview

Sat Feb 03 11:36:04 IST 2024

Interview/ Amitava Mukherjee, chairman and managing director (additional charge), National Mineral Development Corporation

National Mineral Development Corporation, India’s largest iron ore producer, has transitioned itself into a much stronger entity in the recent times with a busy order book, robust results and a dream run on the stock markets. Amitava Mukherjee, NMDC’s chairman, is not only looking to diversify its portfolio by mining other minerals from overseas mines but also working towards supplying lithium in India. He shares NMDC’s vision, policies and strategy in an interview. Excerpts:

Q \ What are NMDC’s growth targets?

A \ This financial year, our guidance has been around 47 million metric tonnes to 49 million metric tonnes (iron ore production). Now with the delay in getting the approvals for the Kumaraswamy iron ore mine in Karnataka, realistically it would be lower. We were targeting 50. But there was also a delay in the commissioning of our fifth line in Bacheli. We were expecting it to be commissioned in August. In the next financial year, we should be able to do 53 million metric tonnes.

Q \ Between April and November 2023, your production of iron ore went up by 17 per cent.

A \ Two or three factors led to it. A major reason was the planning by our team. Second, we have made huge investments in machineries. Last year we bought 11 dumpers. We have a five-year equipment replacement policy. We are taking advance action by two years now, so anything that has to be replaced in 2026 will be ordered now because of the cycle time. In the earlier process, we would have placed the order only in 2026. Also, one of our major mines that was doing only two shifts is doing three now with the additional usage of dumpers.

Q \ The share price of NMDC has doubled since last August.

A \ I think our production and dispatch mechanisms were one of the major reasons. We have also been open to the market about our future plans―that we are completely reorienting our energy, overhauling our dispatch systems and our marketing strategies as well. In the long run, we do not wish to dispatch from the minehead because there are essential physical constraints there. So we want to make blending hubs and dispatch yards. The market can see how we are changing ourselves and now they are confident that we will be able to execute projects at projected timelines. We talk to investors and analysts every three months, so they are aware of what we plan to do in the next five or six years. Generally, the steel industry is upbeat, looking at the way capital expenditure is being planned and the way expansion is happening. Also, our customers are increasing.

Q \ Do you think the demerger from NMDC Steel has proven to be beneficial to NMDC?

A \ Yes. The value unlock of the NMDC share has happened. When the steel plants were in our books, we did not get any traction out of it in the share prices. So it was a free carry that way. The market was also complaining about that. Once the demerger happened, the value got released.

Q \ What are the developments in the field of coal and gold mining?

A \ We have decided to surrender the gold mine we had in India because the revenues did not justify the investments. It was a conscious decision to not start operations of the Chigargunta-Bisanatham gold mine. But that doesn’t mean we won’t do gold mining. In fact, of the seven or eight minerals that we want to diversify, gold is one. We are mining gold in Australia in a small mine because we wanted to gain some mining experience in that country. We have a lot of other gold mining terrains across the mine that we have started. Now we are making a plan for accelerated exploration of all those five or six other terrains. So if you get five to six mines to be explored fast and if we can hopefully make two or three operational, our portfolio of gold would be substantial. Right now it is minimal.

Coking coal is a matter of interest. We have a coking coal terrain which has been given to us on reservation. We are looking at coking coal even outside India. The demand for coking coal in India will last for at least another 60 to 200 years because of the blast furnaces that are coming back. We have looked at a mine in Indonesia. We do not want virgin mines and we want to invest in producing mines. If you take a virgin one, it takes around 12 years to develop it. As far as coking coal is concerned, because the requirement is immediate, wasting 12 years on exploration and development of the mine is illogical.

Q \ Is NMDC in the race to produce lithium?

A \ If things go right, and I am saying this with a big disclaimer, then I am sure that NMDC would be the first company to get lithium into India. We are talking to various people who have mines in Australia and Africa, trying to get into some sort of an understanding with them, some sort of an equity participation. It is the same coking coal route where you have to go in for some of the working mines or just about-to-start working mine. Take some stakes there, have some off-take agreement, and do some exploration in virgin terrains. We have a site in Australia where we are in a partnership with the very big mining company, Hancock Perspective. It is called handbrino. With them we have a magnetite project on the huge terrain, Mount Bevan, and traces of lithium might be from there. We are looking at Africa, too, but those are essentially virgin mines. So that is going to take some time. But in Australia, we are talking to a couple of miners who have either working mines or mines that can start to work and this will be our immediate target.

Q \ What are the employee-friendly measures being implemented by NMDC?

A \ We maintain regular communication with the workers and unions. When I speak to them, my standard line is that whatever we have done in the past 66 years, we need to do in six years. We have been telling our employees that we have reached from zero to 45 million tonnes in 66 years, and in another six years, we have to go from 50 to 100. Now, we are mining outside India. We are doing a lot of things that we have not done in 66 years. This message has gone to them and to motivate the employees, we have introduced awards to recognise their extraordinary work. We have made certain policy changes. For example, now dependent daughters and dependent sisters of employees are eligible to get medical benefits. We are also providing housing to them. I believe that the management is extremely worker-friendly and that is why our employees respond to our call.

nirmala-sitharaman-s-interim-budget-expectations

Sat Jan 27 12:13:58 IST 2024

DANCING TO ‘NAATU NAATU’ in Singapore is surely not out of the scheme of things, considering the city state’s huge diaspora. But when Simon Wong, Singapore’s high commissioner to India, expressed a desire to do so to Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman recently, he was referring to a very specific wish―with India being the ‘biggest bright spot’ in the world economy, will there be another super-charged budget that will have the markets and global investors dancing away?

Sitharaman did not give in to the temptation to open up. “I am not going to play spoilsport, but it is a matter of truth that the budget will just be a vote-on-account because we will be in election mode.” Her reply, made at the Global Economic Policy Summit in Delhi, set tongues wagging.

Hazaaron Khwaishein Aisi (A thousand wishes like this)

Although Sitharaman tried to tell the world there would be “no spectacular announcement” in the interim budget she will present on February 1, it has not stopped India’s economy and business from looking forward to big-ticket announcements. Called a ‘vote-on-account’ as per British tradition, an interim budget presented by an outgoing government on the eve of elections is aimed at meeting expenditure for a few months till the new government comes in after the polls and issues a budget based on its own policy objectives.

Try telling that to the thousand wishes blooming across the land, from corporate leaders to the MSME (micro, small and medium enterprises) entrepreneur, right down to the common man expecting ‘Amrit Kaal’ right away. Or even to the satraps of the ruling party―an election-eve budget is one of the most effective campaign manifestos one could hope for, and who would ever let go of such an opportunity?

“In light of the impending elections, populist policies may be the main focus of the budget in an attempt to win over voters,” said Subhashish Banerjee, founder of P3 (People, Policy, and Politics), a strategic advisory organisation. “Anticipate changes to policy targeted at major problems like health care, unemployment and economic recovery. The government might launch programmes to encourage the creation of jobs and increase consumer spending. There may also be initiatives to support the health care industry and provide funding for social welfare initiatives.”

RRR

Or rise, rallies and risks. The good news is that India remains a bright spot on the global economic firmament, even as China’s growth slows down and rich western nations stare at possible recession. Every rating agency has been progressively revising upwards the GDP growth rate this financial year as the Indian economy rallied on from strength to strength―latest estimates hover just below the magical 7 per cent figure, with super-optimists feeling it would not be a surprise if even that is surpassed.

This type of rise and rally is not without the risks, though. Sanjay Kumar, partner, Deloitte, along with economist Rumki Majumdar spoke about the four risks the Indian economy could face if one got too carried away: “Inflation, particularly high food prices; the impact of a long drawn out election season [as it promises to be till mid-May]; geopolitical uncertainties with two major wars and the contagion effect on global supply chains; and the diverging demand gap seen since Covid, with rural demand not seeing sustainable growth the way high income segment has.”

Baahubali

All this means that to treat the interim budget as just a stop-gap expense accounting exercise would not be too prudent. Not to forget the need to check all the boxes when it comes to pre-poll posturing. Sure, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is on a strong wicket as things stand. But the BJP election machinery likes to ensure that all bases are covered and go all guns blazing. The budget is too juicy an opportunity to miss. And it would be the perfect opportunity to address the K-shaped conundrum, with the lower middle class and poor never really recovering from the devastation of the pandemic aftermath.

“The agriculture sector and the rural sector itself have not been doing particularly well compared with the urban and business sectors,” said Sethurathnam Ravi, economist and former chairman of the Bombay Stock Exchange. “So I see more tax incentives there. Because that is one area of concern for everybody, as food inflation is rising.”

Looking back at the 2019 elections, one cannot discount the trickle-down effect that direct benefit transfers and social welfare schemes like the Ujjwala Yojana had, which indirectly translated into support for the ruling party. While Modi has spoken against freebies, it really should not come in the way of Sitharaman targeting the crucial rural voter base. “Considering the prime minister’s anti-freebies stand, even the best of direct beneficiary plans will be represented as citizen schemes, which will be drafted not only to clear the government’s stand on benefiting the masses, but it will also generate considerable economic boost among the lower and middle classes,” said Banerjee.

“A democratic government owes to its voters that the last man on the street takes precedence,” said R.D. Sahay, adviser policy, Sharda University. “The common man must have a stake. He needs to find that there is something for him in the system.”

Going hand-in-hand with welfare would be an impetus on job creation and social security, like additional funds for PM Shram Yogi Maandhaan (for old age protection and social security of unorganised workers) and Ayushman Bharat Yojana (public health insurance scheme). “Targeted incentives may stimulate investment, job creation and industrial expansion, supported by increased allocations for skill development, incentives in the informal sector and stable working conditions,” said Rohet Ramesh, director of the talent management and business consulting firm Layam.

Chak de! India

Sitharaman’s stint as finance minister has been characterised by a ‘go big or go home’ spending strategy, with a massive capital expenditure push particularly in the post-Covid years. The aim was to reignite growth, as much as spur investment from the reticent private sector.

Nobody really expects it to be toned down now, with Deloitte’s Kumar and Majumdar flagging how most of it has been concentrated on roads and railways. “On the other hand, over the past two years, spending on urban development and energy as a share of GDP has declined,” they said. This big-ticket spending spree, though helpful in boosting growth and employment, has led to a ballooning fiscal deficit. The Black Swan circumstance of the pandemic was an excuse to let caution to the winds and let the deficit increase, but it could haunt the economy if adequate measures are not taken soon.

The pressing question is whether North Block will go cautious and stick to its target of reducing the fiscal deficit of Rs6.43 lakh crore, which is 6.5 per cent of the GDP, down to 5.9 per cent, at least by the next financial year by splurging less, or whether the temptation of an election year will be too much.

Kal ka Avtar (Tomorrow’s avatar)

Electoral compulsions notwithstanding, Sitharaman is expected to do all that is possible within the ambit of an interim budget to state India’s future forward credentials, especially on the heels of the G20 summit. This could include incentives for clean energy, waste management, pollution control, agriculture technology and logistics.

“As we approach this year’s budget announcement, there is an expectation that the momentum of the green growth initiative from the previous year will strengthen, reflecting a sustainability-first approach,” said Arun Awasthy, president and managing director of Johnson Controls India. There is a win-win in many of this. For example, agriculture logistics, like warehousing and supply chain, could directly contribute to reducing food inflation, while pollution and waste management initiatives could be huge employment generators.

From EV sops to hydrogen to artificial intelligence, new-age technologies are now too crucial for any budget to ignore. “The overriding theme of the budget should centre on sustainability, innovation and self-sufficiency… and a strategic focus on R&D,” said Nitin Gupta, cofounder and CEO of Attero, a lithium battery recycling firm. “The industry expects measures that will position India as a global leader in the green economy.”

For all the speculation on which sector will get incentives and which areas the budget will focus on, nothing garners the greatest interest like the question that captivates the salaried middle-class come every budget season― whether there will be an upward revision of the personal income tax slabs.

While a nudge towards the newer personal income tax regime―lower rates but with no availing of deductions―is the likely long term scenario, the poll-eve timing means nothing is off the table. “For more dramatic decisions we should probably wait till July,” said Ravi. “Every year, people would get excited over that, but nothing happens. Maybe the government has reserved it for the election year… that is still possible.” Who will dance to ‘Naatu Naatu’ on February 1 remains locked up in Sitharaman’s red bahi-khata pouch for now.

gift-city-on-the-way-to-becoming-an-international-financial-hub

Sat Jan 13 12:03:40 IST 2024

Gujarat is officially a dry state. But soon, investors flocking to the Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, or GIFT City, which is located between the state’s largest city Ahmedabad and its capital Gandhinagar, will be able to raise a toast, as the government has given hotels, restaurants and clubs there permits for wine and dine facilities.

GIFT City has always been an exception. The ambitious project envisioned by Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to challenge global financial hubs like Dubai and Singapore. Conceptualised in 2007, when Modi was Gujarat chief minister, its foundation stone was laid in 2012 and business commenced in 2015.

It is still a work in progress, and a far cry from the global financial hub it aspires to be, but it is steadily getting there. “Once major players set up shop in GIFT City―some of the foreign banks are already there and some have set up back office operations―it is only a matter of time before we have all types of players from the ecosystem,” said Sriram Krishnan, chief business development officer, NSE. “In the next few years, GIFT City will be how Bandra-Kurla Complex in Mumbai looks today.”

GIFT City has already established itself as an international financial services centre (IFSC). Last year, the popular SGX Nifty, the Singapore Stock Exchange-traded futures on the NSE’s benchmark Nifty50 index, was rebranded GIFT Nifty and all the derivative contracts earlier traded in Singapore were moved to the NSE International Exchange (NSE IX) in GIFT City. This shift of derivatives trade worth $7.5 billion was a big step in attracting more investors. Some 59.13 lakh contracts were traded on international stock exchanges in GIFT City with a traded value of $194.88 billion till September last year.

Modi recently said he wanted to make GIFT City a global nerve centre of new age global financial and technology services. Many tech giants have shown interest. Google and Oracle have already taken up space to set up their fintech centres. Many global business leaders attended the Global Fintech Leadership Forum at GIFT City, organised as part of the Vibrant Gujarat Summit, on January 10.

Bhavin Shah, partner and leader (deals) at PwC India, said the establishment of International Financial Services Centre Authority (IFSCA) as a unified regulator for GIFT City had ushered in a new era of progress. “IFSCA has been proactive in introducing regular updates and amendments, offering robust regulatory support to enhance the business environment. The goal is to streamline business procedures and lay down a ‘red carpet’ to investors and businesses who opt for GIFT City, instead of the proverbial ‘red tape’,” he said. Some 400 entities have already opted to establish operations in GIFT City.

Twenty-three IFSC Banking Units (IBUs) already have presence in GIFT City. IBUs are branches of banks that offer international banking services. Assets of these IBUs―trade finance, investments, commercial loans and interbank placements―touched $46.48 billion in September 2023.

Asset managers and alternative investment funds, too, have been steadily driving in, as having a base in GIFT City enables both inbound and outbound investments. These funds can offer products to global investors, and, at the same time, offer local investors options to invest in global markets through the liberalised remittance scheme (LRS) route.

A lot of the global capital is managed out of Singapore and Dubai. GIFT City gives the option of managing this money through Indian shores. DSP, for instance, manages around $19 billion in funds, of which around $2.5 billion is managed through its offshore office in Mauritius, where it has raised money from global investors. It is now moving the office to GIFT City. “There will be focus on products for inbound investors, foreign institutional investors, hedge funds, family offices and pension funds, and outbound investors can invest in global opportunities,” said Jay Kothari, senior vice president and global head of international business at DSP Asset Managers.

It is not just the banks and financial institutions that are setting up shop in GIFT City. Aircraft lessors, ship leasing companies and fintechs are moving in in droves. Air India’s recent acquisition of Airbus A350 aircraft in a finance lease was facilitated by AI Fleet Services (AIFS), a finance company registered in GIFT City. AIFS will be the primary Air India entity for wide-body aircraft financing. IndiGo, India’s largest airline, also has plans to set up a unit in GIFT City to finance lease aircraft.

Along with regulatory support, cost effectiveness also sets GIFT City apart. “Compared to other international financial centres, the operational costs in GIFT City are notably lower, making it an attractive destination for businesses seeking a thriving and conducive economic environment,” said Shah of PwC.

GIFT City offers a 10-year tax holiday for units. There is no goods and services tax on services received by a unit. Investors are exempted from securities transactions tax (STT) and stamp duty for transactions done on international exchanges in the IFSC. Funds operated from there are exempt from distribution tax. Interest payable by a unit to non-residents is not taxable in India and the minimum alternate tax (MAT) rate for income earned in convertible foreign currency is 9 per cent against the actual 18.5 per cent.

“A recent notification also grants exemption from the requirement to obtain permanent account number (PAN) for non-residents undertaking specified transactions with an IBU. This reflects a deliberate effort to attract foreign investors and create a business environment at GIFT City that is notably friendly and conducive to investors,” said Shah of PwC.

The government actively removes any speed bump on the way of GIFT City’s smooth progress. The dual approval needed to set up a unit there―one from the development commissioner of special economic zone and the other from the IFSC authority―was a headache. To overcome this, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a proposal in the 2023-2024 Union Budget to give IFSC Authority powers under the SEZ Act. A single window IT portal was also created to get approvals.

As new businesses move to GIFT city, authorities are also focusing on building the social infrastructure that will be key to attracting people to live there. Gujarat Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel recently said that there were plans to develop the riverfront along the Sabarmati. Metro rail connectivity from Ahmedabad to GIFT City is expected to be operational by July and approval has already been granted for constructing more residential units. Patel said town planning schemes would be devised as part of the phase two development plan and a large township would be constructed in the adjoining areas of GIFT City.

Australia’s Deakin University opened its first overseas campus in GIFT City on January 9. For now it offers postgraduate courses in cyber security and business analytics. “The location of the site―one of the biggest financial and tech hubs in India―makes it very attractive. It suited what we wanted to have, a focus on employment related to postgraduate qualifications, working in cyber security, business analytics, where business are crying out for well qualified graduates, and this makes it a good option,” said Prof Iain Martin, vice chancellor of Deakin University. The University of Wollongong, Australia, is also planning to open a campus in GIFT City.

Aided by the upswing in demand, the real estate in GIFT City is witnessing a surge. “The government has allocated some 22 million square feet space so far, and $240 million committed investment,” said Swapnil Anil, executive director & head of advisory services, Colliers India. “The residential prices in GIFT City have increased 25-30 per cent in the past a few quarters. These advancements have resulted in a notable rise in the residential and commercial real estate markets along the Ahmedabad-Gandhinagar corridor.”

unlocking-investment-potential-the-case-for-multi-asset-allocation-funds

Sat Jan 13 11:59:30 IST 2024

WITH THE CONFLICT RAGING in the Middle East, the equity markets in India and world over has turned volatile as investor sentiment has dampened over the past few weeks. You, too, might have pondered the question, “How should I protect the value of my investments, or how can I reduce erosion in portfolio value?” The answer could lie in multi-asset allocation funds. These funds have been gaining traction and are increasingly becoming a go-to option for both seasoned and new investors.

Multi-asset allocation funds, a sub-category of hybrid funds, are a distinct type of mutual funds. These funds are specifically designed to invest in a diverse range of asset classes, which can include equities (stocks), debt (bonds), commodities like gold and/or silver, and real estate investment trusts (REITs). The primary aim of this offering is to combine these asset classes in a way that optimises returns while mitigating risk.

One of the most compelling reasons to consider multi-asset allocation funds is the ease of diversification they offer. Diversification is the investment strategy of spreading your money across various assets to reduce risk. With multi-asset funds, you do not need to agonise over creating the perfect asset mix. The fund manager does that for you. They dynamically allocate assets based on market conditions, aiming to balance the risk-reward trade-off. This simplifies your investment journey and ensures that your portfolio is well-rounded.

Additionally, asset classes can be volatile, with each having its market dynamics. Equity markets can soar to great heights, but they can also experience severe downturns. Debt provides stability but might not offer substantial growth. Multi-asset funds harness the potential of different assets during various market cycles. For instance, when equities are down, investments in debt and gold can provide stability. Conversely, when equities are bullish, they can drive higher returns. This dynamic approach can help reduce portfolio volatility and enhance risk management.

Finally, multi-asset funds are managed keeping tax efficiency in mind. Depending on the fund’s stated asset allocation, they can be structured to be treated as equity funds or as non-equity funds with indexation benefit.

The meaning of tax treatment as equity fund means that they can offer you favourable tax benefits, such as only long-term capital gains tax at 10 per cent and short-term capital gains tax at 15 per cent. Plus, you do not have to worry about capital gains taxes when the fund rebalances its assets, which is a cost you might otherwise incur when managing asset shifts independently.

In the Union Budget 2023, there was an introduction of non-equity funds where at least 35 per cent equity investment has to be maintained so that the fund receives indexation benefit.

Whether a fund employs equity taxation or non-equity taxation with indexation benefits, the multi-asset fund generally has a much lower standard deviation as a whole. In 2015, 2020 and 2022, when the market volatility was significantly higher, a multi-asset approach emerged as a superior investment strategy.

Multi-asset funds also offer time efficiency. With these funds, you can free yourself from the constant monitoring and rebalancing that managing a diverse portfolio of individual assets would require. The fund manager takes care of the nitty-gritty, ensuring your investments are well-maintained and aligned with market conditions.

With rising geopolitical uncertainties, high inflation, and increased market volatility, multi-asset allocation funds are positioned to offer a more stable and rewarding investment experience. In such an environment, having a well-balanced portfolio that spans equities, debt, commodities and real estate investments is a prudent strategy for 2023 and beyond.

In conclusion, multi-asset allocation funds are a versatile and efficient way to harness the potential of various asset classes while minimising the complexity and risks associated with managing them individually. These funds simplify diversification, enhance risk management, and offer favourable tax treatment.

Kumar is founder, Perpetual Investments.

a-comprehensive-exploration-of-aggressive-hybrid-funds

Sat Jan 13 11:55:46 IST 2024

IN THE COMPLEX LANDSCAPE of investment options, aggressive hybrid funds stand out as a traditional choice for investors. These mutual funds, nestled within the hybrid scheme, predominantly invest in stocks while also incorporating a measured allocation in debt instruments. This unique blend positions them as a well-rounded investment avenue, providing a strategic mix of risk and stability.

According to SEBI scheme categorisation, aggressive hybrid funds are mandated to maintain a balance, allocating between 65 per cent and 80 per cent of their portfolio to equities and related instruments. The remaining portion finds its place in debt securities. This strategic allocation strategy aims to spread investments across different avenues, mitigating risk and thereby ensuring these funds are less volatile than their pure equity counterparts.

Equity, as an asset class, bears the potential to generate long-term wealth, while debt offers stability and a steady income stream. Aggressive hybrid funds, by combining these elements, strive to deliver the best of both worlds within a single investment product. The equity portion fuels return during market upswings, while the debt component acts as a stabilising force during market downturns, offering a unique dual-role investment proposition.

Aggressive hybrid funds present an attractive option for a broad spectrum of investors, from beginners to seasoned market participants. Specifically designed for those looking to step into equity investments without exposing themselves to the full risk inherent in pure equity funds, these funds are well-suited for individuals with a three- to five-year investment horizon or longer. Investors can align these funds with financial goals anticipated within the next three to five years, making them a versatile addition to a diversified portfolio.

The aspect investors must be mindful about is that though this type of fund is not as risky as pure equity mutual funds, aggressive hybrid funds carry moderately high risk because of their substantial equity component. During market corrections, investors may witness a decline in the investment value, but it is generally less severe compared with a pure equity mutual fund. And, in rising markets, these funds might underperform pure equity funds, given their allocation to debt instruments. However, over the long term, the return differential between aggressive hybrid funds and pure equity funds is relatively modest.

The hallmark of aggressive hybrid funds lies in their ability to provide true diversification. With a portfolio encompassing both high-risk, high-return equities and low-risk, low-return debt, investors benefit from this balanced approach. This not only ensures returns are not solely contingent on equity market movements but also provides a cushion during market corrections, underscoring the dual role played by the debt component.

Another advantage is their capacity to eliminate the necessity of buying multiple funds for exposure to different asset classes. The fund manager takes on the responsibility of asset allocation between equities and debt, simplifying the tracking effort required from investors. Also, an investor need not worry about the rebalancing process. Current regulations mandate a minimum of 20 per cent investment in debt funds at all times. As markets rise, the equity holdings increase in value, tilting the allocation mix in favour of equity. To restore balance, the fund manager sells stocks and invests in debt instruments, strategically selling equities at high points and purchasing them at lower levels.

Aggressive hybrid funds are treated as equity funds for tax purposes. This advantage provides investors with a tax-efficient investment avenue that combines the benefits of both asset classes. Short-term capital gains, realised within one year, are taxed at 15 per cent, while long-term capital gains are tax-free up to Rs1 lakh and taxed at 10 per cent beyond that.

To conclude, aggressive hybrid funds emerge as a compelling investment option, seamlessly combining the growth potential of equities with the stability of debt. Their strategic asset allocation, and tax advantages, make them a versatile choice for investors seeking a balanced and adaptive investment strategy. As investors navigate the complex world of finance, aggressive hybrid funds offer a roadmap that bridges risk and stability, potentially unlocking long-term wealth creation.

Sunila is founder, Jupiter Fintech Solutions

events-that-will-determine-how-much-india-leaps-ahead-in-2024

Sat Jan 06 14:02:46 IST 2024

Swag. It was not a traditional Indian attitude. But from Salman Khan’s Tiger who sang ‘Swag se karenge (Will do it with confidence)’ to the alpha male heroes of the recent movies, swag has very much been appropriated by Bharat. Even as the world braces itself for a round of uncertainty about the wars, the narrative on desi streets―high, low and Dalal―couldn’t be more different. Indians are flush with swag and swagger leaping into 2024.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi referred to the zeitgeist on New Year’s Eve. “India is brimming with self-confidence,” he said. “We have to maintain the same spirit and momentum in 2024 as well.”

While political India’s eyes will be pinned on the Lok Sabha elections in the summer, the mood of the nation will be determined not just by the incoming government’s policies, but by some major, far-reaching developments on the economy side of affairs, some of which are already under way.

The most talked-about, of course, is the hyperbole of how India is all set to become a $5-trillion economy in 2024-2025, if not the calendar year itself. While that has more milestone value than anything else, many significant developments across the technology, finance and commerce spaces could upend the world around us as we know it.

I, Robot

The good news? We’ve only scraped the surface of what artificial intelligence can do. The bad news? We’ve only scraped the surface of what artificial intelligence can do.

While we were mighty impressed by what generative AI programmes like ChatGPT could churn out, 2024 could unfold the true extent of what AI is capable of. Tata Sons chair N.Chandrasekaran told his employees to “proactively pursue the benefits of AI―economically, operationally and socially”. As the year progresses, we will see increasing adoption of AI across India Inc, stretching right up to factory floors.

Of course, Chandra added a caveat: “We must be prepared for more disruption and volatility.” These disruptions may not be pretty to those working in jobs like cashiers, customer care executives, secretaries and administrative assistants, going by a US Bureau of Labor Statistics prediction on jobs that are shrinking the quickest. Or to fresh-in-the-job-market youngsters who find their qualifications already outdated by technology.

Then, there is the threat of misuse. “As the Lok Sabha elections approach, the intricate interplay of AI and deepfakes adds a layer of complexity to the overall system,” warned Ibrahim H. Khatri, CEO and Founder of Privezi Solutions, a Mumbai-based corporate data security and management firm. “Though AI can be a driving force behind effective campaigning and educated voter participation, the improper use of deepfakes can jeopardise the democratic process by increasing the spread of misinformation and manipulation.”

Updating legislation will be crucial, but important legal frameworks in this effort―the Digital India Act and the Data Protection Act―are yet to be fully implemented. The government seems content on passing on the onus to tech companies and social media platforms.

Swipe right

India is on a courtship spree, trying to sew up free trade agreements left, right and centre. The one with the UK, negotiations for which are on its last leg, is crucial for both and could see fruition before the elections are announced. For the UK, it will go a long way in making up for its Brexit misadventure; while for India, it will not just be a nice poll point (many Indians hope it means cheaper Johnnie Walker scotch!), but part of its larger gameplay to counterbalance China’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which India had refused to join.

However, the UK FTA is just one of the many agreements New Delhi is negotiating. Other ongoing talks include the long-pending ones with the US and the EU, as well as those close to completion like the one with Oman and the four-nation bloc comprising Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

“India aspires for fair, transparent and mutually beneficial agreements that make our businesses competitive, opening new markets for them,” said Piyush Goyal, minister of commerce and industry. “FTAs expand trade and commerce, and accelerate economic growth, thus creating jobs and business opportunities.”

The ground beneath our feet

Through the last one-and-a-half decade, India’s real estate sector was stuttering, wreaked by the global financial meltdown in 2008-2009, demonetisation and RERA. But over the past year or so, the sun has been shining on realty, with some of the biggest value increases since the boom of the early 2000s. And what more, ticket prices are firmly up, with homebuyers with a penchant for premium housing sniffing around for good picks. “We expect projects in the premium and luxury segments (Rs2 crore and above) to continue experiencing healthy growth,” said Anshuman Magazine, chairman & CEO of the real estate consultancy CBRE India, pointing out how sales of high-end flats and villas grew 75 per cent last year. “Affordability is no longer the sole decisive factor for homebuyers, as health and safety, community living, sustainability, and integration of smart home technologies emerge as key factors in home purchase decisions.”

Pie from the sky

India’s space odyssey will hit a pivotal point in 2024 with the unmanned test flight of Gaganyaan. While that will, science willing, be an illustrious high point, the nation’s space progress, especially in the area of space business and startups, notches up way higher than such marquee moments. While XpoSat is already successful and Aditya L1 is set to reach its designated orbit, other high profile rollouts slated for 2024 include the earth observation satellite NISAR, a Venus mission and the second Mars mission.

Another landmark would be when Airtel’s OneWeb starts its broadband internet from space service. It will be expensive in the beginning, but will help rural and remote areas get access to high-speed communication. Elon Musk’s Starlink and Jeff Bezos’s Project Kuiper are also waiting in the wings to launch similar services in India. “Broadband services will improve further and telecommunication will connect all remote areas, which will further improve mobile telephone, video and data management,” said G. Narahari Dutta, former ISRO deputy director and professor at NITTE Meenakshi Institute of Technology, Bengaluru.

But the proof of the pie will be the fledgling Indian space startups showing use cases and profits. “Early-stage startups continue to make strides and augment their capabilities across upstream and downstream,” said Apurwa Masook, founder & CEO, SpaceFields, a space startup. “India is well positioned with increased cooperation and global partnerships in space amid escalating geopolitical tensions in various regions.”

New year, new energy

Despite COP-28 and the debate over fossil fuels, the fact that a good chunk of India’s energy still comes from coal is unlikely to change in 2024, or in the near future. But that does not mean there isn’t a whiff of change in the air. Last year saw momentum in the adoption of electric vehicles, and that is set to accelerate this year as well. “Despite the reduction in FAME subsidy, India’s EV market has recovered and electric two-wheeler sales are 5 per cent of total two-wheeler sales, with an year-on year growth of 11.5 per cent,” said Anirudh Ravi Narayanan, CEO of BNC Motors, a clean energy two-wheeler startup. “This is an important step because the crutches are coming off the industry. What can help now from the policy side is to provide stability and a long-term view so that the industry can plan accordingly.” Also on his wish list? Enabling battery swapping in the country.

Big brothers

Is a hyper-consolidated business good or bad? 2024 could well point the way for Indian media and Big Tech. For all the television channels, newspapers and magazines and their legacy, two Big Tech entities Alphabet (YouTube and Google) and Meta (Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp) have a grapple hold of our online lives, and they earned a neat revenue of Rs43,000 crore last year. The will-they-won’t-they merger of Zee with Sony, as well as Disney Star with Reliance (Jio, TV18, Colors, etc), could create two formidable players with heft. What does it mean for the average media & entertainment consumer? The writing’s on the airwaves.

Phoenix rising?

After the nightmare that was 2023, Gautam Adani would be hoping the only way is up in 2024. Hindenburg revelations’ specific casualty was his flagship company’s much-touted follow-on public offer (FPO), through which it was hoping to mop up Rs20,000 crore for its expansion. It had to be called off, as the company faced months of bad press.

That done and the company slowly clawing back up, it seems the good days are back―Adani is reported to be holding a series of roadshows for investors, and with the current bull run, it wouldn’t be a surprise if it decides to revive the FPO. The billion dollar question will be―before or after the polls?

Slumdog trillionaire

Indian economy may or may not hit $5 trillion this year, or surpass Germany and Japan to become the world’s third richest nation, but all agree that it is on a roll, and it is not just the stock markets. Financial year 2024-2025 could see India easily attaining an above 7 per cent GDP growth, reinforcing its position as the fastest growing major economy in the world.

“That is a big positive, particularly in view of the global headwinds,” said Sanjay Kumar, partner, Deloitte India. “Oft-understood reason for this strong sentiment on growth is robust capital investments with widening crowding in of private capital expenditure in related areas. Systemic financial risks are also seen to be declining.”

Kumar does throw in a cautionary note, though: “This, however, needs continued policy support, vigilant supervision and liberal framework to manage emerging vulnerabilities.”

Markets believe the likely return of Modi, for a third term, will be lucky for the economy, with a push for further market-friendly economic reforms likely in the ‘actual’ budget to follow in the summer. Yet, more work is to be done, as Kumar points out: “We need policies focused on promoting high quality job-rich growth, with continued reform in areas of education, health, land, agriculture, and labour markets, including improving equity and inclusion in labour force participation.”

farmer-producer-organisations-could-fix-many-problems-of-india-s-fragmented-agriculture-sector

Sat Jan 06 13:17:29 IST 2024

Pushkar, in Rajasthan, is a popular tourist destination. It is also known for its roses. Some 700 hectares in the region are dedicated for rose cultivation. The flowers are mostly exported.

Though Pushkar gives the highest per-hectare yield of roses in the country, the farmers' earnings were limited because of the highly fragmented land holding in the area. In 2015, Nand Kishor Saini decided to fix it. He brought together all the rose farmers in the region and set up a farmer-producer organisation (FPO), Pushkar Rural Agricultural Youth and Employment Producer Company (PRAYE). It started with 260 shareholders, and now has 500 shareholders and 350 unregistered members. The company has facilities where the produce is processed into value-added products like gulkand (a sweet preserve of rose petals), rose water, rose syrup and dehydrated rose petals. These products are sold under the brand Pushkarwala.

PRAYE collects 500-600kg pink roses a day. “Before the formation of the company, an individual rose farmer got Rs50 a kilogram for the crop. Now, he gets more than Rs65,” said Saini. Last financial year, PRAYE's revenue topped Rs1 crore.

The synergy helps in every aspect―from fetching better yield to extracting higher price for the produce, as Anita Malge, who runs Yashaswini Agro Producer Company in Solapur, Maharashtra, affirms. “We started with a small group of 10 people,” she said. “We collectively bought seeds and agri chemical, and started cultivating together.” Started in 2015, the company's goal is improving the lives of women farmers in the district. Today, it has more than 1,400 women shareholders from 32 villages.

Yashaswini focuses on millets and pulses, and sources them from farmers and then converts them into food products like biscuits and cookies, and sells them. “We have 55 products now, and our revenue was close to Rs8.27 crore in 2022-23,” said Malge.

Indian agriculture has for long been constrained by fragmented land holdings. According to the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD), some 85 per cent of the land holdings belong to small and marginal farmers. The use of latest farm machinery is limited in small land parcels and, more importantly, these unorganised farmers are unable to get good value for their limited produce. They are also at the mercy of the vagaries of nature.

That is where FPOs like Yashaswini and PRAYE can make a difference. They are owned by farmers and the profits are shared among the shareholders. Each FPO has an elected board of directors. NABARD, government departments, banks and international aid agencies provide financial and technical support to these companies.

FPOs eliminate many layers of exploitation. Typically, local collection agents collect a farmer's produce for a commission. Then brokers sell it to a trader and the trader eventually sells it to institutional buyers. There is commission at every step and the farmer ends up getting very low price for his produce. And, he has limited say in negotiations.

FPO model changes all this. An FPO procures inputs, provides market information to the members, helps them get access to finance and typically has storage and processing facilities. FPOs also help in brand building, packaging and marketing the produce to large buyers.

Sahyadri Farmer Producer Company, based in Nashik, in Maharashtra, is a good example for how collective strength can reap huge benefits for farmers. Famous for its grapes, Nashik, over the years, has emerged as the wine capital of India. In 2011, four smalltime farmers led by Vilas Shinde came together and formed Sahyadri. Today, it services more than 18,000 registered farmers covering 31,000 acres and nine crops. Its turnover in the 2022-23 financial year was Rs1,007 crore, including Rs352 crore from exports.

The core crops that Sahyadri focuses on are grapes, tomato, pomegranate, oranges, sweet lime and sweet corn. The company has also launched processed food products like tomato ketchup, puree, frozen fruit pulp and frozen vegetables. It is the largest exporter of grapes from India. “We are striving to replicate the nation's commendable global presence in the dairy sector in horticulture,” said Shinde. “There is ample opportunity for collaboration within the agriculture sector, driven by unwavering commitment and a clear direction.”

According to the ministry of agriculture and farmers welfare, there are more than 7,000 FPOs registered through agencies like NABARD and Small Farmers' Agribusiness Consortium (SFAC). In 2021, the government launched a scheme called 'Formation and Promotion of 10,000 FPOs' with the budgetary provision of Rs6,865 crore. Under the scheme, FPOs are provided financial assistance up to Rs18 lakh for a period of three years. Provision has been made for matching equity grant up to Rs 2,000 a farmer with a limit of Rs15 lakh per FPO and a credit guarantee facility up to Rs2 crore per FPO from an eligible lending institution.

In May 2023, the ministry of cooperation decided to set up 1,100 new FPOs in the cooperative sector. Under this scheme, 033 lakh is being given to each FPO and 025 lakh per FPO to cluster-based business organisations.

P. Chandra Shekara, director general of the National Institute of Agricultural Extension Management, said the challenge was how the small holders could be brought together to bring in economies of scale. “The farmer is confined to production,” he said. “Much of the profit is not in production, but in processing and marketing, where farmers play a minimum role.”

The farm sector in India is a tale of two sides. While farmer producer companies like Sahyadri, Yashaswini and PRAYE have shown that working together can have huge benefits, hundreds of farmers kill themselves every year unable to pay off their debts. Creating more FPOs might help them collectively cultivate a better future.

inside-the-integral-coach-factory-in-chennai-where-vande-bharat-express-trains-are-manufactured

Sat Dec 23 19:14:58 IST 2023

Clang! The sound of metal striking metal welcomes one to the Integral Coach Factory in north Chennai’s Perambur. Large pieces of steel and metal plates are spread on the factory floor. As you walk down a green epoxy pathway, taking in the huge cranes on either side, men and women in dark blue uniforms walk past you with rods and wires in their hands. Some of their colleagues are carrying steel sheets, others are operating the cranes, which are moving heavy frames to an assembly point.

Sparks fly as women wearing protective helmets wield welding torches. Adjacent to the assembly unit, at the furnishing unit, men are lying under the chassis, tightening bolts, laying wires, fixing rubber beading on doors and windows. A team of young men are installing the propulsion system’s controls in loco pilot’s cabin.

The ICF, which makes coaches for Vande Bharat Express trains, has a full schedule this fiscal. It is aiming to roll out 600 Vande Bharat coaches before March 31, 2024, and manufactures 16 to 18 train sets (units of eight or 16 coaches) a month. “ICF is best suited for the manufacture of VB coaches as we have expertise in a variety of coaches, especially air-conditioned coaches,” ICF general manager B.G. Mallya told THE WEEK. “We also have expertise in self-propellant coaches.”

Within the factory, there is a separate facility with more than 800 employees for the manufacture of specialty train coaches. It has a dedicated assembly and furnishing division. Mallya said this saves a lot of time, particularly during furnishing. Contract workers from ICF’s vendors work on propulsion, brakes and pre-fabrication. There are more than 200 vendors, including the firms which supply the smaller items. “Around 80 to 90 per cent of VB trains are indigenous,” said Mallya. “Items like the forged wheels are imported. The forged wheels [were being] imported from Ukraine and China. But, as a result of the war in Ukraine, they are [now also] being made at the Durgapur Steel Plant. But, manufacturing is a bit slow because of constraints at the plant.”

The Vande Bharat trains are a cause of much enthusiasm among railway travellers in India. Introduced as Train 18 in 2018 and renamed Vande Bharat Express ahead of its first service the following February, they are the first semi-high speed trains in India. They can reduce journey time by 25 per cent to 45 per cent and have aeroplane-style passenger amenities. The maximum speed has been set at 160kmph, but tracks have to be upgraded to allow them to reach that speed. So, for now, they mostly run at up to 130kmph.

“A train set has four basic units,” said Mallya. “A basic unit is independent; [capable] of moving on its own power. Like a locomotive with space for 300 passengers. VB trains don’t require locomotives as power is distributed among the coaches and each unit acts as a locomotive. Even if one unit fails the train continues to run without any technical glitch.”

To allow higher acceleration, the trains have motors fitted in every second coach. An eight-coach train set needs 7,000kw of power. All this means that the trains accelerate and decelerate faster. They also have an intelligent braking system, which uses a mix of electric braking and pneumatic braking (air/gas braking). And, during braking, the system generates electrical power from the energy and momentum of the fast-moving trains and feeds it back into the supply. Called regenerative braking, this process aids energy efficiency.

The furnishing division of ICF works on the top-notch facilities and state-of-the-art safety features. The seat cushions are more comfortable than those in AC chair cars in conventional trains. The seats recline 19.37 degrees; better than the average aeroplane seat. Every seat has a mobile charging point, snack table, footrests, bottle holders and newspaper/magazine bags. The air conditioning has improved energy efficiency and there is a special mechanism for neutralising germs. The windows have fabric-based roller blinds. The lights in the luggage racks have been upgraded from resistive touch to capacitive touch (more accurate touch sensors for ease-of-use). The toilets are bio-vacuum, like in aeroplanes.

Safety has been given the utmost priority in these trains. There is an aerosol-based fire detection and suppression system and CCTV surveillance inside and outside the train, including four cameras to monitor stone-pelters. The trains are also equipped with the Kavach (armour) train collision avoidance system. It includes features to aid the loco pilot when visibility is low and even automatic braking if the loco pilot fails to act in time.

Additionally, the passage connecting coaches is stable and wide, unlike the partially open and shaky passages in conventional trains. Overall, the design of coaches is such that when the train runs at high speeds, it will be like sitting in your home, said Mallya. There are 25 Vande Bharat trains running across India and that number will be close to 100 in the next one year. The cost of manufacturing a 16-coach Vande Bharat train is about Rs120 crore.

Mallya said the ICF was working on new variants of Vande Bharat coaches. “We are working on sleeper class, short-distance commute travel and non-AC train set during this fiscal,” he said. “We are also planning to launch two push-pull trains with non-AC LHB coaches (Linke Hofmann Busch are German-made passenger coaches which have been in use since 2000). These will provide the same experience as the VB trains.” They will have a seating capacity of 1,834 passengers and will be economical.

Mallya said the sleeper coaches are on schedule and will be launched before the end of this financial year. “[They] will have 11 AC three-tier coaches, four 2-tier coaches and one first-class AC coach,” he said. “The ambience will be much different from the existing trains. The lights will be warm and even the ladder to climb to the upper berth will be of a different standard. The sleeper will [eventually] be able to substitute the existing trains.”

india-s-key-scientific-and-technological-innovators

Sat Dec 23 11:35:32 IST 2023

Krishna Kumar had a problem at hand. He had India’s biggest business empire backing him and a high-quality product―the finest tea from the most famous hills. But by the time it was transported in wooden boxes from the hills, he realised, there was a distinct loss of freshness.

“KK was a brilliant mind,” brand expert Harish Bijoor recalled the iconic managing director of Tata Tea, who passed away this year, and the simple idea with which he revolutionised India’s favourite drink. “But you don’t need a brilliant mind to come up with an innovation. All it takes is a simple idea!”

KK’s idea was simple, and, as it turned out, very effective. Along with fellow honcho Darbari Seth, he figured out that while the wooden chest was classy, it did lead to loss of quality. His solution? Laminate polypacks to vacuum seal the tea so that it is not spoilt in wooden or carton boxes during transportation and retail.

Bijoor was then working at Hindustan Lever, Tata Tea’s main rival. “I was on the other side of the fence, and my first reaction was ‘this is downgrading packaging!’ Marketers’ brand paradigm is that products must look glossy and upmarket, tempting people to buy. And Tata Tea was downgrading packaging,” he said.

Down the line, Bijoor and rest of the market realised it was packaging that was functionally correct. Not only did sealing keep the tea fresh, the reduced size and weight of polypacks meant the trucks coming down from the estates could carry a lot more load. This ‘polypack revolution’, as Bijoor called it, not just changed how tea was packed, but also “pioneered the way in many other categories”.

AN IDEA CAN CHANGE YOUR LIFE

The power of innovation has always been the driving force behind the advancement of human civilisation. And India, historically, has not done too badly. Right from Aryabhata inventing the ‘zero’ and the Indus Valley folks coming up with buttons to keep their clothes together, to giving the world anything from chess (initially called Ashtapada) to cataract surgery (Sushruta used a curved needle), we have been there, done that, and earned the historical laurels.

But, are we still at the top of the ideas game?

As it turns out, we are pretty well sorted. Of course, it might seem that innovations would today have evolved beyond the home lab or that ashram by the stream. In the case of technology, that may well be correct, but an idea ‘that can change your life’ need not always be science or hyper-fangled tech geeks coding it out. It could be as simple as a company hitting upon a new way of packaging that improves quality and saves money, as much as it could be a vaccine which had thousands of specialised researchers working in tandem, racing against the clock.

Today, ideas come fast and thick anywhere―a boardroom in Mumbai or a pharmaceutical lab in Gujarat or a garage workstation in Bengaluru. Or, for that matter, very much in the bedrooms of small towns or even the fields of rural India. If you doubt it, ask Sridhar Vembu, who virtually runs his software-as-a-service startup Zoho from a village on the foothills of the Western Ghats. Zoho’s revenue last year was around Rs 7,000 crore.

And they needn’t be all about advanced technology or inventing something from scratch. Sometimes, the power of an idea is very much the necessity it was spawned by, and the circumstances in which it took shape.

Like Operation Flood, for instance, the much-talked about dairy cooperative movement that made India the world’s largest milk producer. The programme, later billed the ‘white revolution’, came out of the search for solutions to a basic problem―the fluctuation in milk production, with animals producing more milk during the flush season leading to wastage, and less during the lean months causing scarcity across the country.

Dr Verghese Kurien came up with a two-pronged strategy―a cooperative of farmers coordinating through a network of centralised milk sheds that linked them to consumers, as well as a method to turn excess milk into milk powder. Unlike the west, India produced more buffalo milk than cow milk. So it required some nimble innovation on the part of Harichand Megha Dalaya (Kurien’s batch mate from college who came for a visit to Anand and was persuaded to stay on) to devise skim milk powder and condensed milk from buffalo milk.

THIS DRIVE IS UNIVERSAL

‘Global first’ innovations may seem to be the preserve of the west, but once you start counting, Indians do notch up a decent tally. While Sabeer Bhatia being the founder of Hotmail is pretty well known, the name Ajay V. Bhatt may not ring a bell except in tech circles. The Gujarati is the inventor of the USB, or universal serial bus, that helps us connect and transfer data effortlessly. Bhatt moved to the US after finishing studies in his home state, before ending up heading the team from Intel which worked with other tech biggies like Compaq to work out the universal standard.

And he is not the only one. Perhaps there is a reason Indians bloom bigger abroad.

HOW GREEN IS MY VALLEY

“A strong ideation ecosystem exists in India,” said business coach Ratish Pandey. “But if the idea is great and funding comes in, often these companies move to Singapore or other countries.”

Tax is not the only reason they do that. “You become far more ‘investible’ if you are based abroad,” said Pandey. “It is easier for investors to fund and to take their money out when the time comes.” This manifests itself as a different form of ‘flight of capital’. “Sure, the idea may have germinated in India, but ultimately, a whole lot of ‘Indian’ unicorns are registered in the US or Europe or Singapore,” said Pandey.

And even when companies based in India come up with innovative products or services, quite often they delay patenting it, or do it with the US Patents office. “There is a significant difference in the number of patents that get registered in India compared to the western world,” said Pandey. The Indian government has been trying to reverse this flow by offering incentives like covering a part of the cost of the patent process.

LOOK MA, IT’S THE GOVERNMENT!

While it is no surprise that the spirit of pioneering a new innovation is being held aloft by the startup community, the surprise package in the whole deal is the government itself. “A lot of innovative thinking is happening in the government space; the government as an enabler,” said Prashant Mishra, dean of the School of Business Management at Narsee Monjee University, Mumbai. “From the Jan Dhan-Aadhar-Mobile (JAM) innovation to the vaccine rollout to ONDC, this government has innovated in a manner many other countries are actually learning from it.”

Beyond innovation, most central ministries have also been spurring ideation through its agencies and schemes. “There is a significant government push. The amount of grants you can manage if your idea is good is not small, starting from Rs25 lakh. Pretty much every ministry is putting away money for startups,” said Pandey.

IMMACULATE CONCEPTION

Another area which has come into its own has been the support initiatives by academia. “A significant shift I have seen is that every technical institute and university is putting in place incubation labs, because they want to capture every possible smart idea that these young students are developing,” said Pandey.

Starting with some of the IITs, many universities and technical institutes today offer incubation labs, grants and guidance on scaling the idea to a workable business. “We check if the startups have science at the core of it, and then whether there is a market opportunity,” said C.S. Murali, chairman of the entrepreneurship cell, Foundation for Science, Innovation and Development at Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru. “If it all works, we say yes to incubation―provide space and seed capital, faculty become technical mentors and give them access to lab and equipment.”

IISc has to its credit startups like Bellatrix Aerospace, which provides end-to-end solutions for satellites and launch vehicle systems. The better known IIT Madras Research Park has spawned success stories like Ather, now one of India’s biggest electric two-wheeler makers. It has so far incubated 280 startups with a cumulative valuation of Rs33,000 crore.

MAKE FOR INDIA

But if the proof of the pudding is in the eating, where are all those innovative products and services? Bijoor puts the blame on the Indian mentality of jugaad. “Innovation is a process and a science in itself. We need patience to face failures. In India, we seem to be taking the patli gali (narrow bylane) of jugaad instead of the super highway of mega innovation,” he said.

This, however, is attributed to two distinct situational realities. One, India’s consumption levels are still below the global average. Take tea, for example. It might seem that the whole nation is gulping down cupfuls round the clock, but India does not feature even in the top 20 tea drinking nations when it comes to per capita consumption.

“For company marketers, that is a market still untapped. So their focus is on expanding reach to improve consumption,” said Pandey. “Innovation will come only once we reach a certain level of consumption. Then you start thinking, ‘now what is the new thing I can bring into play to excite the customer?’ In that sense, we are behind the curve vis-a-vis the western world in terms of innovating. Right now Indian businesses have so much of space to just produce and sell that they don’t really need to innovate.”

Second, while India does have a few ‘global firsts’, its pioneering spirit seems to be at its best in taking existing standards and innovations and adapting it. “Of late, India’s most significant achievements have been through process-based innovations or improvements for unique contexts in which Indian businesses operate,” said Mishra. “That way, Indian firms have shown much ingenuity and much greater resilience compared to many of the US-based or western origin firms.”

How? “India is complex and varied in its geography, climate and culture. A firm can’t just offer a standard product in many cases. Tackling that diversity requires higher agility, and much decentralised planning and execution,” said Mishra, giving examples of companies like Unilever coming with soaps and cleaning liquids that use less water and L&T’s engineering solutions to build railway tracks in difficult terrains.

Or even the Mangalyaan mission. It is not like ISRO reinvented the wheel―there were spaceships and missions to Mars even earlier. ISRO’s achievement was the process efficiency, driven through frugal innovation that eventually cost a fraction of NASA’s missions.

THE FUTURE IS CLOSER THAN YOU THINK

India could just crack the ‘global first’ criteria more frequently in the near future, if one sees the pace at which its startup ecosystem is thriving. Using technology as the backbone and the huge scale India’s population offers, startup ideas have been changing the country’s landscape. From UPI, a digital payment mode that is now a model for other countries, to tech-assisted agriculture, Indian startups are driving innovation. “Sadly our mainstream companies are not pioneering new ideas much,” said Bijoor. “But my happy factor is our huge startup ecosystem. They are not just a glimmer of hope, but millions of glimmers of hope!”

1955

FIBRE FOR GROWTH

Unless you are someone who checks the Padma awards list every year meticulously, the name Narinder Singh Kapany is unlikely to ring a bell (He got Padma Vibhushan in 2021, a year after his death). His fame beyond the Sikh diaspora in the US and the scientific academia is sketchy at best. Not surprising that a leading magazine recently billed the physicist one of the “greatest unsung heroes of mankind”.

It is no hyperbole. The modern telecommunication ecosystem, from telecom to broadcast and everything in between, owes it all to one not-so-humble invention Kapany played a pivotal role in inventing―fibre optics. After working in Indian Ordnance Factories in Kanpur, Kapany moved to Imperial College London in the early 1950s and worked with Harold Hopkins on achieving good image transmission through bundles of optical fibres. Coupled with the invention of optical cladding by Dutch scientist Bram van Heel, it spawned the era of fibre optics and modern communication.

FUN FACT

Jawaharlal Nehru asked Kapany to come back from London and become scientific adviser to his government. If Kapany had said yes, he might have got his Padma award earlier, but we may not have had today’s telecommunications!

1970

LET THERE BE FLOOD

Harichand Megha Dalaya came back to India just for a visit, but was given a job by his good friend Verghese Kurien. And the result was a flood.

Operation Flood turned India from a milk deficient country to the world’s biggest producer. In fact, India had a rather peculiar problem with milk before the White Revolution. During the flush season, so much of it went to waste; but during rest of the time, there was scarcity across the country. Until then, machines that converted excess milk into milk powder existed only for cow milk, and they could not be used effectively for buffalo milk because of its high fat content. Dalaya used his tech know-how and engineering capabilities to instal the world’s first spray dry machine for buffalo milk at Amul.

FUN FACT

Freedom fighter and father of the cooperative movement Tribhuvandas Patel, who set up the Kheda Cooperative, was known as the ‘father’ and Kurien the ‘son’ of dairy cooperatives. The publicity-shy Dalaya was its ‘holy ghost!’

1971

THE CUP OF LIFE

Dilip Mahalanabis came up with an idea that saved crores of lives while in a swampy refugee camp during the Bangladesh liberation war. Cholera and diarrhoea were rampant in the camps, and the traditional treatment was huge amounts of intravenous fluids. But Dilip, a paediatrician, realised this was not viable in developing countries. His solution was an oral solution of 22g glucose, 3.5g salt and 2.5g baking soda mixed with a litre of water.

Today we know this life-saver as ORS, or oral rehydration solution, easily available even in the remotest parts of the world, that does not need a health professional and can be easily mixed with clean water and works wonders with patients.

FUN FACT

After Mahalanabis started using ORS, the death rate in the refugee camp came down to 2 per cent from 30 per cent. And stories on this life-saving formula started getting broadcast on the underground radio station that beamed programmes to the Bangla freedom fighters deep inside East Pakistan.

1993

CHIPPING INTO THE FUTURE

As we in the 2020s see Intel and Apple take the chip battle into another era, it almost feels quaint harking back to that one product that was the must-have ‘inside’ every PC worth its RAM once upon a time. Intel came out with the Pentium chip in the early 1990s, giving a fillip to the PC revolution that was already under way. The fight to be the top cat of the chips block was intense―there were many consortiums vying with their products, including one led by Apple, IBM and Motorola and another by Compaq and Microsoft, besides others.

But none had Vinod Dham, who was later called ‘The Pentium engineer’. The Indian immigrant believed that Intel’s ‘focus and execute’ would pull through, and Pentium’s eventual market dominance is testament to the man’s vision. Dham has several other inventions to his credit, right from Intel’s first flash memory technology to, believe it or not, the K6, often referred to as ‘the Pentium killer’, brought out by Intel rival AMD, where he joined after leaving Intel.

FUN FACT

An Intel Pentium chip designed by Dham occupied the pride of place at Washington’s Smithsonian Museum’s ‘Beyond Bollywood’ exhibition on the life and contribution of Indians in America.

2011

PLASTIC, FANTASTIC

Urban Indians are used to the sight of plastic waste on streets and overflowing the dumpsters. Well, take solace in the fact that some of that plastic is beneath your feet.

As per government figures in 2021, more than 700 km of national highways alone have been made by mixing plastic waste. The actual number would be higher as this is the figure for national highways. Many municipal bodies are doing their own bit for the environment by constructing roads using discarded plastic.

Madurai-based scientist and chemistry professor Rajagopalan Vasudevan was instrumental in coming up with an innovative method of mixing shredded plastic waste with bitumen and using the polymerised mix in road construction. Not only does it make the transport glide faster on such roads, it also makes roads more resistant to monsoon damage.

FUN FACT

Countries like the Netherlands and Indonesia have constructed roads with plastic-asphalt mix, while the UK has announced that it will implement Vasudevan’s technology along with some of its own secret compounds to make the roads in London, Gloucester and Durham.

2013

MY SKY UNDER MY STAR

NavIC, or Navigation with Indian Constellation, came about when the US refused to allow Indian military use of its Global Positioning System (GPS). The Manmohan Singh government approved the project in 2006, with ISRO opening a Deep Space Network station in Karnataka and launching a bunch of IRNSS satellites. Almost every bit of this project is indigenously developed. Today, anyone from fishermen out in the sea to cargo vans on national highways use NavIC to find their way.

FUN FACT

NavIC currently covers only the Indian territorial landmass and 1,500 km beyond. There are plans for further extension, and new commercial usage is also likely.

2016

MONEY GOES MOBILE

From buying a tender coconut from a roadside vendor to a television set at a fancy mall, Indians are not swiping, but scanning―Rs17 lakh crore last month alone. Say thanks to the Unified Payments Interface (UPI).

While digital money transfer existed before UPI, this Indian model’s success lay in the government intervention that ensured that all such payment mechanisms were standardised. Due to the low penetration of credit cards and net banking, the RBI-initiated idea, concretised by the National Payment Corporation of India in 2016, was a runaway success, as anyone with a mobile phone and data connection could link their banks to their phones and use the apps for almost any payment. The entry of private operators like GooglePay and PhonePe only catalysed the popularity.

Today, UPI forms 84 per cent of all digital transactions in the country, and the rest of the world is also interested. Already, non-resident accounts in countries like the US, the UK and Singapore can use UPI.

FUN FACT

Inspired by the success of UPI in India (where its GooglePay is the second biggest player), Google’s suggestion to incorporate it as a template was accepted by the US Federal Reserve for the recently launched real-time payment system called FedNow.

2020

INDIA STACK

It is rather abnormal for a list of pioneering innovations to feature a governmental initiative. But that is exactly what India seems to have pulled off with the India Stack, its unified software platform to digitise service delivery between governments, businesses, startups and developers.

First off the block was Aadhaar, a unique identity number for citizens. Despite controversies over its data management, Aadhaar is today the go-to identity marker across India.

With Jan Dhan direct benefits using Aadhaar and UPI becoming a popular hit, and the massive vaccination programme success achieved digitally using India Stack as the fundamental, it is well on its way towards its aim of a digitised society. “India’s innovation ecosystem is now one of the fastest growing in the world. As the prime minister said, the next decade can be India’s ‘Tech’ade!” said Rajeev Chandrasekhar, Union minister of state for electronics & IT.

FUN FACT

The Indian government has been conducting hackathons, inviting developers to play and develop more applications using the India Stack open source programme.

former-reserve-bank-governor-raghuram-rajan-interview

Sat Dec 09 16:16:52 IST 2023

Exclusive Interview/ Raghuram Rajan, former Reserve Bank governor

Raghuram Rajan revels in his post-RBI governor status as a sort of conscience-keeper of India’s political economy, ignoring trolling and allegations of ‘Modi bashing’. It helps that he is not present on any of the popular social media platforms except LinkedIn.

But as Rohit Lamba, economist at Pennsylvania State University and co-author of Rajan’s latest book, Breaking the Mould, tells me, “People should engage with the message, not the messenger! We wrote this book because we seriously think there is a political economy path vision problem, and we are proposing a different path forward.”

In the book, Rajan explains, point by point and with examples galore, why India is on the wrong path with its post-pandemic focus on manufacturing, with its production linked incentive (PLI) schemes and China + 1 focus. One highlighted example is incentives offered to Micron to set up a semiconductor plant in Gujarat. “You are spending Rs16,500 crore to set up a chip plant that is not even cutting edge, spending more than one-third of the entire education budget of the central government to generate just a few hundred or thousand jobs,” argued Lamba. “Where are your priorities? Do you have a vision broad enough to tackle growth and jobs for the coming decades for India?”

Rajan himself had more to say. Excerpts from an exclusive interview:

Q\ You’ve given a thumbs down to the economic model of PLIs and manufacturing. How do we strike a balance, how do we go about trying a new model?

A\Services is where India needs to focus on. Not just the old-style services, but new services related to value-added part of manufacturing, the intellectual property, the content and the creativity that goes into that. The problem the China model is running into is creativity. The authoritarian government does not create an environment where creativity can flourish.

India with its democracy has an advantage here. If we strengthen our democracy, if we allow all this creativity to flourish, it can capture the high ground. What we are worried about is that we are spending so much money trying to capture the low ground [of manufacturing] where we will be competing with Vietnam and China, and not the space that is available for the taking, where we are competing a little bit with the west.

Think, for example, a consultant. Today if you hire a consultant in the west, they will cost you $200,000 upwards a year. But if you hire a brilliant consultant from IIM Ahmedabad, they will cost you maybe $40,000-$50,000 a year. This is a huge possibility of high value-added labour arbitrage, if we can get many more kids through institutions like the IIM. So, the need of the hour is not so much factories like Micron, but intellectual capital factories like IIMs, but [with] higher quality.

Q\ Perhaps since our education levels are not so high, the government thinks that low skill manufacturing is something we can do. Most Indian states have a dismal record when it comes to education as well as health. The pandemic would have been a great point to reset, but I don’t think it really happened.

A\ It takes a really long time to get any improvement in health care, to get any improvement in education. The emphasis seen in the recent elections is all about freebies, as opposed to much better school and health care. The provision of social goods takes back seat to the provision of freebies.

Now, we are not entirely against targeted transfers, because they can give people spending power, especially the poor, and they can use that to get some of the social services that they don’t get. But that said, I think government has to focus on improving the quality of social services. To my mind, that requires changes in government also. This is a holistic approach. We need decentralisation, so that people can hold somebody to account. If you are not getting a good school, if the teacher is absent, if the dispensary doesn’t open regularly, if the medicine is not available, they have to have somebody to protest to. That is where local governments become much more important.

Our sense is that our (centre-state government) structure was set up post-independence when national integration was more important than anything else. And now that national integration is largely assured, we need to think about what is the best government for the 21st century. It is not about changing the Constitution. But within the Constitution, can we do some things that we always thought we will do, the third layer of [localised] government that has sort of been arrested in the country at the state level for now.

It is a two-pronged approach, both directly on measures to improve education, health care, finance, but also, the governance that allows those things to flourish, that allows the bottom up pressure to come, that allows the system to respond. The system will respond, but the pressure has to come.

Q\ The current focus is on improving GDP numbers by manufacturing and infrastructure development, as seen by reforms initiated during the pandemic. Because, if you focus on education and health, it will be a generation before those dividends start to show.

A\ We need to learn the lessons from the pandemic. Many countries instituted inquiries to find out what they did well and what they didn’t; we haven’t. Because we claim we did really well!

As you know, there is a lot of discussion about the statistics, whether we grossly undercounted our deaths. If we properly counted it as per WHO says, maybe we had a disastrous performance. We need to better understand what we did and that goes back to the point that data should not be suppressed, but used to inform, so that we can improve our governance.

Yes, anything done well is going to take time. But we had 10 years of this government. Since Atal Bihari Vajpayee started the thrust on primary education in the early 2000s, it has been two decades. Time builds up, and we benefited from the Vajpayee push. The question is, do we need to do more now, to compete in the global economy?

We are not against low-skill manufacturing by any means. We should encourage it. But what we are saying is that there are diminishing returns to going there, because we are not competing with the west anymore. We will be competing with Vietnam and China that already have well-educated workers that are moving up the value chain. And it will be very hard to carve a niche for ourselves.

Take all this talk of cellphones that are coming through PLIs―we are importing most of the parts! This is not a huge value add! This is the lowest part of the value add in the chain. Let’s be clear―we are spending a lot of subsidies in getting this low value-added manufacturing in here. Improving our infrastructure will bring some of it; our large market will get some of it. But we don’t need to pay to get it. What we should pay for is scaling up improvements in education and health care, which will create the labour force that people will want to employ. They will bring factories in.

In a sense we are saying [the current government policy] is very short-term thinking, and very much focused on subsidising manufacturing to a great extent. And what happens when you find at the end of the subsidies they are not willing to stay? Because they are not bringing in a huge amount of investment if you look at the numbers. While subsidies are there, they will be happy to stay. But even if you are looking at the China + 1 pressure, companies looking at an alternative to China, we are not getting a large part of those.

Q\ Are we frittering away our demographic dividend with this focus on low-skill manufacturing policy?

A\ I would say we are in danger of frittering away our demographic dividend not so much by the low-skill manufacturing policy, but by not investing enough in education and health care.

Take the pandemic. When you take the data of some of the states, it is alarming how poorly kids are doing in school. They haven’t come back to school in the same numbers; many have dropped out. They are not learning because they have forgotten a lot of what they learnt, because schools were closed during the pandemic. What kind of labour force are we expecting to have, when these kids have dropped so much behind and are dropping out?

As a country we must look to our human capital. What are we missing? Forget creating a 21st century labour force, even to create a 20th century workforce, we need to repair the damage that has been done by the pandemic. The key resource in the 21st century is going to be brains; not brawn, not buildings.

Q\ You hint in the book that the GDP growth is too unreal and does not reflect ground reality.

A\ We don’t want to enter that debate because there are more learned people than us engaged in that debate. What is true is, if you are a relatively poor country, you are going to grow faster. The fact that we are the fastest growing GDP in the G20 becomes less meaningful when you recognise that we are also the poorest country in the G20.

The key question is, are we growing enough to provide the jobs, to take advantage of the demographic dividend? There, almost surely the answer is no, if you look at the growing unemployment, if you look at kids trying to take the civil services exams, trying to enter military service, any kind of government service. There is an enormous number of people applying for government jobs because the private sector is not creating enough jobs.

You would think that in an economy which is growing as splendidly, jobs would be plentiful. Of course, there are good jobs, there are lots of good stories coming out of India. But that is not enough right now.

The only way we can do far more is by focusing on the factories of the future, which are schools, medical clinics, hospitals, universities. Those are going to be the factories that will manufacture human capital. And that is where we need to be focused on right now. Because we are just not doing it right.

Q\ A K-shaped recovery has seen many sections of people falling off. You make the startling observation that our youth are jobless but distracted by cheap mobile data videos.

A\ The narrative is so ebullient, newspapers full of this being inaugurated, that being inaugurated, that there is a sense that if I am not participating in it, there must be something wrong with me. Meanwhile, the intellectual class is benefiting from the tremendous upper-level job growth―their kids are being employed by the likes of Goldman Sachs in Bengaluru! So in that sense, they are doing fine.

The real question is how long this sort of separation can persist. [These are] parents whose kids are dropping out of school because they did not get enough attention during the pandemic, the ones who are going back to agriculture because there are no jobs in industry? At some point, this will start to blow up. What we are seeing right now are small mutinies―Manipur, tussle over reservations. These are examples of the way in which they come out in our country. Frustration then looks for immediate sort of cause, and sort of boils over.

Once many more reach workable age and we don’t provide the jobs for them, it turns into a demographic curse. And the most worrisome will be if youth don’t get jobs and they are not distracted. Then that will be a problem.

Q\ From critiquing ‘vishwaguru’ to criticising every point of the present government’s narrative, you have now crossed over firmly into ‘Modi bashing’ territory. Does it bother you?

A\ There is an attempt to portray me as being with some party or the other. I actually worked with Yashwant Sinha, who was finance minister in the BJP government. What I want is, really, how India can do better. India’s strengths are its democracy, its willingness to talk, its willingness to debate, and these are going to be huge strengths in the 21st century. And we should not give these up lightly in an attempt to go the China way. And from all that we hear, that seems to be the closest model we are moving to―manufacturing-led, infrastructure-led, and more focus on buildings than on debate and brains.

Let us focus on India’s strengths, and if we can do that, India will become a vishwaguru. There will be an outpouring of knowledge from India, which will make people point to India. In fact, a whole lot of companies are coming to India to exploit that availability of our smart young people. But we can do far more. We can own that intellectual capital. And we can grab the higher value-added parts of the supply chain. Why should Satya Nadella be only in Microsoft? Can’t we replicate him in Indian companies and make a huge movement upward?

We should also recognise that 75 years after independence, there are some changes we should make, given that the challenges we face are different from the challenges after independence. But it’s not in the direction of giving up on inclusion and moving towards majoritarianism. It is by trying to get governance into people’s hands. Becoming more democratic than less democratic. Getting more information, more power into people’s hands. We should continue on that trend rather than reverse it.

Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India’s Economic Future

By Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba

Published by Penguin Random House India

Pages : 336; Price: Rs799

indians-are-getting-more-and-more-credit-cards-and-swiping-them-more-often-than-ever

Sat Dec 09 16:11:02 IST 2023

CREDIT CARDS HAVE been around for a few decades. In fact, it is the primary mode of payment for purchases in many countries. But in India, they had never really taken off as they were seen as being out of bounds for most of the salaried, and retailers were reluctant to accept them.

That is, however, a thing of the past. Not only are more and more people getting credit cards, but also they are using them more frequently. The most recent data on payments and settlement systems by the Reserve Bank of India says the number of active credit cards in India was 9.13 crore in August 2023. It was just 7.8 crore a year before that—that is a 17 per cent growth. In January 2020, it was just 5.6 crore. So, in some three and a half years, the number of credit cards surged 63 per cent.

The growth in credit card usage is even more impressive. In August this year, credit card spends touched Rs1.48 lakh crore, up 2.7 per cent from the month before that and up 32.3 per cent from August 2022.

What is driving this growth?

“The continued increase in discretionary spending on vacation, travel, entertainment and consumer durables in metros and beyond, and digital payments have propelled credit card usage in India,” said Puneet Bhatia, vice president, acquisition and product management, American Express Banking Corp. India.

Indians are swiping their cards everywhere. “PoS (point of sale) spends across all key categories, including consumer durables, furnishing and hardware, apparel and jewellery, have increased significantly, indicating consumers’ strong preference for offline shopping experiences as well,” said Abhijit Chakravorty, managing director and CEO, SBI Cards and Payment Services. Promotions by large e-commerce platforms in the festive season have also been a big driver.

In Amazon's recent Great Indian Festival sale, one out of every three purchases was made using the co-branded credit card Amazon Pay has with ICICI Bank, the Amazon Pay Later option or via EMIs (equated monthly instalments). The usage of the Amazon Pay ICICI credit card soared 65 per cent, said Mayank Jain, director, credit and lending, Amazon Pay India.

Co-branded cards offer excellent value proposition to users. For instance, Amazon Prime members can get up to 5 per cent cashback each time they use it on Amazon. “You can maximise benefits by capitalising on exclusive rewards, discounts and perks offered by the partnering brands,” said Gaurav Chopra, founder and CEO of IndiaLends.

Promotions and offers by banks on EMI purchases on cards is another driver for growing cards usage. In the first 48 hours of Amazon's Great Indian Festival sale, EMI payments emerged as the top choice, with one in four shopping orders placed in instalments, and three out of four EMI orders qualified for no-cost EMI benefits, said Jain.

The biggest boost, however, would have been the option to link credit cards to UPI. For now, this is restricted to RuPay cards. “Customers will benefit from the ease and the increased opportunity to use their credit cards. Merchants will benefit from the increase in consumption by being part of the credit ecosystem with acceptance of credit cards using asset lite QR codes,” said National Payments Corporation of India, which manages UPI.

Many retailers, especially smaller ones, were earlier not keen on accepting credit cards owing to the charges associated with them. For instance, a retailer would need to buy a PoS machine and pay the merchant discount rate (MDR), generally two to three per cent, as well. If a consumer makes a purchase of Rs10,000 and pays by credit card, the retailer would have to pay an MDR of Rs200 to Rs300.

There are no such charges on UPI payments. Also, the person paying via the credit card linked to UPI can scan the same QR code that one would scan for normal UPI payments and all the payments can be consolidated in just one app, making it convenient to monitor and manage all the expenses.

Parag Rao, country head of payments, liability products, consumer finance and marketing at HDFC Bank, said his bank had seen a ten-times growth in UPI on credit card spends in the past six months and it had around 45 per cent share in the segment. Chakravorty of SBI Cards said 9 per cent of its RuPay cardholders had enrolled for the UPI usage.

A lot of this growth is not from the metros. It is estimated that by 2025, tier III and tier IV towns in India will have a combined GDP of around $1 trillion, and they would add around 250 million new financial consumers to the market. “Aspirational young Indians with high disposable income, increased awareness, and heightened taste for premium have been empowered by economic growth, growing entrepreneurship, and deeper penetration of e-commerce. This is propelling growth in spending on cards like never before,” said Bhatia of American Express.

The rise in credit card spending mirrors the strong growth the banking and financial services industry is seeing in retail credit, especially unsecured loans given to consumers. According to the financial stability report of the Reserve Bank of India, overall gross advances grew at around 14 per cent between March 2021 and March 2023. Retail credit grew at a compounded annual growth of around 25 per cent in the same period. Credit card dues crossed Rs2 lakh crore for the first time earlier this year. This surge in retail lending has got the RBI concerned, with the regulator warning banks and NBFCs to be careful.

“If you look at the past couple of years, the year-on-year average growth on retail credit has been close to 30 per cent in most institutions and secured retail credit has grown at 23 per cent,” said Swaminathan Janakiraman, deputy governor of RBI, in the post monetary policy briefing in October. “If you see that in the context of the rest of the credit growth, which is in the range of 12-14 per cent, it looks to be an outlier. So, as a supervisor, it is our intention to inform the banks that this is an outlier level of growth.”

Of late, the RBI has introduced several security measures for cards such as tokenisation, where sensitive data like the card number and security code are anonymised with a unique token. Janakiraman said banks should strengthen their internal surveillance mechanisms so that any risk that might likely be building up was “handled upfront rather than coming to grief at a later time”.

In a move to check the rampant growth in consumer loans, the RBI recently raised risk weights in respect to consumer credit exposure of commercial banks, including personal loans, by 25 percentage points to 125 per cent. Risk weights on credit card receivables of scheduled commercial banks and NBFCs were also raised by 25 percentage points. Essentially it means banks and NBFCs have to back their retail loans with more capital.

While credit cards have their advantages, they can become debt traps if dues are not paid regularly. Banks allow users to pay credit card dues every cycle fully or partially. The interest rate on credit card overdue is steep—2.5 per cent to 3.5 per cent a month. Also, the interest is charged on the outstanding balance as well as subsequent purchases once the interest free period lapses.

taj-mahal-palace-hotel-ihcl-celebrates-120-years

Sat Dec 09 16:51:58 IST 2023

As imposing as the Gateway of India―the archway that was erected in 1924 to welcome George V, the first British monarch to arrive on Indian shores―is its neighbour, the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel. One could say it has served as a more memorable guidepost, too, since it was built in 1903, two decades before the Gateway was conceived.

Then called the Taj Mahal Hotel, after India’s most famous monument of love, and built in the Indo-Saracenic style, it was the first to introduce the country’s famous hospitality to the rest of the world. It was the finest hotel east of the Suez Canal then and it transformed not just the face of Bombay, but also the image of India. The New York Times called it “a resplendent debut”, as it was Tata Group founder Jamsetji Tata’s first hotel under the aegis of the Indian Hotels Company Limited (IHCL). On December 16, 2023, this magnificent edifice celebrates its 120th birthday.

The hotel continues to earn its place in history. Maharajas considered it their second home. During the freedom movement, leaders like Muhammed Ali Jinnah and Sarojini Naidu held court in its suites. Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru were both visitors, as were writers Somerset Maugham and Aldous Huxley who supported India’s independence. In fact, independent India’s first speech to industry leaders took place at this hotel.

The Taj Mahal Hotel’s list of eminent guests is probably rivalled only by the Rashtrapati Bhavan―King Charles III, Margaret Thatcher, the Clintons, Jacqueline Onassis, David Rockefeller, the Obamas, George Bernard Shaw, Irving Stone, Barbara Cartland, Richard Attenborough, Mick Jagger, Yehudi Menuhin, Andrew Lloyd Weber, Brad Pitt, Angelina Jolie, Madonna and the prince and princess of Wales William and Catherine, too, had stayed at the Taj.

“This building houses not just the history of the Taj hotels and of India, but also the history of the world,” says Puneet Chhatwal, managing director and chief executive officer of IHCL. “This is natural given our 120-year history of being an iconic crown jewel of India.”

The hotel was the first in India to have a licenced bar (its famous Harbour Bar has the licence number 1) and electric elevators. And it introduced jazz and cabaret to India.

IHCL went on to be counted among the finest luxury hotel chains in the world. It began by opening its doors to India’s palaces. It opened up tourism in states like Rajasthan, Kerala and Goa, the Andamans and, more recently, the northeast. Iconic properties in the UK and the US followed, too. What started as a single hotel in 1903 is now a hospitality ecosystem with world-class service and a bouquet of properties across luxury and business hotels. IHCL today has a portfolio of 274 hotels, including 82 under development, across four continents and 11 countries. It is India’s largest hospitality company by market capitalisation. This year, Brand Finance named Taj India’s Strongest Brand.

SeleQtions is a collection of hotels under the IHCL umbrella, along with the upscale Vivanta, a lean luxe segment with Ginger, and a charming portfolio of private bungalows and villas in picturesque spots called amã Stays & Trails.

This year, IHCL has also announced its 104th luxury hotel property. “We are among the top three luxury hotel chains of the world, and the fastest growing in this space,” says Chhatwal. “These include our iconic assets like The Pierre in New York, or the St James Court and the Taj 51 Buckingham Gate in London. There are three hotels in operation in Dubai, and one under development. We are in all the neighbouring countries, except in Kathmandu, Nepal.”

Chhatwal says the next decade will see the chain develop a strong presence in Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and maybe a few properties in continental Europe. “Personally, this gives me a sense of pride,” he says. “It gives me a sense of accomplishment. I believe that when you serve the Taj, you serve the nation. Because that’s exactly what we do. The majority of the G20 events took place at a Taj property. The host of the B20 was the Taj Palace in New Delhi, a lot of the dignitaries were staying both at the Taj Palace here and the Taj Mansingh, too.”

IHCL’s service to the nation was especially evident during the Covid-19 pandemic. “If you are the largest hospitality ecosystem of India, automatically what you are doing is in alignment with the strategy of the national leadership,” Chhatwal explains. “This becomes like a service to the nation if you are at the forefront hosting 1,20,000 beds a night for frontline workers, or six million meals (during Covid as well as the Assam floods), all hosted through the Taj Public Service Welfare Trust, which was formed in the aftermath of the 2008 terror attacks.”

The group worked closely with the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation and government hospitals in Mumbai and took care of frontline staff as well as migrant workers. “There were 12 to 13 hospitals we were catering to,” Chhatwal says. “This is all a part of the DNA of the group; we have always been large-hearted,”.

When Chhatwal joined the group in 2017, IHCL was a loss-making entity. He turned it around in a year, reporting a profit of Rs101 crore. When the hotel industry worldwide was hit by the pandemic, the hospitality industry reported major losses. But IHCL recovered by 2022-23 itself, recording its highest-ever profit of Rs1,003 crore.

How did he manage the crisis? “We have been blessed to have gone to good schools, colleges, and business schools,” says Chhatwal. “They teach you sensitivity; what happens if your revenue drops by 20 per cent to 30 per cent. But I don’t think anybody ever taught what happens if your revenue becomes zero. When the lockdown was announced at that time, I don’t think anybody ever thought how long it would last. If we had known in the beginning that this was going to go on for two years, a lot of us would have given up. Because we thought it was going to come to an end, we started working before the second lockdown came. That is what kept us going. The leadership of the Tata Group chairman was critical in this space. So there was no panic reaction. For example, we didn’t put any of our full-time employees in furlough. I will say 200 people of the top management took a voluntary salary cut to support contractual employees. We did whatever we could for the people who were directly or indirectly associated with us.”

The pandemic was also a wake-up call for resetting costs. “We invented luxury home stays with amã. We went into luxury home delivery with Qmin. It kept evolving and everybody was kept busy. We opened in Mumbai in May 2020. Then we extended to four cities in the next month, then to 10 or 12 in the next 12 months. So it is not always just about revenue or profitability, but the system was busy, something was always happening. Today, even that has evolved as a business. The all-day dining of all Ginger hotels will be called Qmin. Today, we have 40 operational outlets for Qmin. It will soon have 100 outlets. So, 100 Qmin restaurants that started from an idea of home delivery,” says Chhatwal.

All of this is part of Chhatwal’s strategy to keep IHCL iconic as well as profitable. His call to action was called Ahvaan 2025, and he is making the chain asset light.

When the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel turned 100, a renovation programme was put into place. International architects were invited to work with local artisans and hotel staff to bring about a loving update. The Taj Mahal Palace has collected some 4,000 paintings and works of art―possibly the largest collection in the country after Air India’s, which is yet to be archived. More than 250 of these are museum-quality pieces. Giant Belgian chandeliers and the finest Bastar tribal art have been curated and displayed together. Anglo-Indian inlay chairs, Goan Christian artefacts, Mughal jaali-inspired designs and contemporary sculpture―the hotel is a veritable living museum of the finest talents.

The 120-year celebrations promise to be as iconic. It will start on December 17, with a sound and light show at the Gateway of India. A year of celebrations across all hotels will follow.

“We call March 24, which was otherwise the worst day for the hotel sector, a TAJNESS day. We will celebrate it across our hotels from breakfast to dinner. All guests, employees and stakeholders will be involved in the celebration. TAJNESS stands for Trust, Awareness and Joy, our three pillars of hospitality,” says Chhatwal. Musical evenings, black-tie dinners and the like will be hosted across major Indian cities.

A luxury brand celebrating 120 years also shows how the hotel has held on to both strings of legacy as well as modernity. The Taj Mahal Palace hotel as well as the IHCL group are constantly evolving. Social media promotions are a serious business now. Newer concepts to timeless spaces are constantly being planned. “Whether we did a Wasabi a few decades ago or a Souk, our restaurants are thriving. The once popular Zodiac Grill also comes back as a weekend Chambers (one of the most sought-after private clubs) dining. Now we will be going into renovation with the Chambers. We did the entire pool side and a new spa. We will be doing a new salon. We will be doubling the size of Chambers and taking a floor above that,” says Chhatwal.

The Taj Mahal Palace and IHCL are focused on an inclusive and sustainable growth, and to be major drivers to make India a top travel and tourism economy. The latest World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) report expects the sector to create 126 million jobs globally with at least 20 per cent of these coming from the Indian subcontinent.

“At the end of the day, you are still dealing with human beings, you are still dealing with emotions, you are still dealing with the experience,” says Chhatwal. “The experiences are getting more and more in focus than just the brick and mortar.”

indigo-is-not-satisfied-with-the-dominance-in-the-indian-sky

Sat Dec 02 16:44:18 IST 2023

SOMEONE SUGGESTED THAT we just look at the map and…” Pieter Elbers makes a motion resembling a dart being thrown, and laughs. “That’s not really how we select a new route to fly to,” he says, the grin firmly in place.

Elbers, CEO of IndiGo, Asia’s biggest airline and eighth largest in the world, is in his element after another round of laughing all the way to the bank―four quarters of profits in a row even as many fellow airlines are floundering or staring at bankruptcy. And the ‘going international’ strategy, which he set in motion a year ago, is now in top gear.

It is this choice of destinations that has the aviation world agog, and the subject of the question to Elbers. After starting the predictable India-Gulf routes a few years ago, the airline dialled up the expansion push by many notches this year with flights to, wait for it, Baku (Azerbaijan), Tbilisi (Georgia), Nairobi (Kenya), Jakarta (Indonesia) and more.

“We establish some market info first, looking into general parameters like GDP and foreign investments. Then we looked at whether Indians want to go to these places, how much of a detour is necessary to get there today and what options they have now,” says Elbers in an interaction with THE WEEK.

Third, he adds, is the entrepreneurial approach of taking a risk with a new route, as much as using the weight of IndiGo’s dominance in the domestic market as an advantage. “A Delhi to Baku flight is actually an India to Baku flight, because we connect so many domestic destinations to Delhi,” he says. “I’m encouraged by what I see in some of these new markets. The appetite of the Indian consumer to explore internationally is just about to start. We’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg.”

We might have as well seen just the tip of the iceberg as far as IndiGo’s insatiable thirst for market dominance is concerned. Founded in 2006 by travel entrepreneur Rahul Bhatia and Rakesh Gangwal, who was president & CEO of US Airways, the airline quickly captured the nation’s imagination with its lean, mean business model, and leapfrogged established players like Jet Airways and Air India to become India’s biggest in barely six years.

Swiftly adding new destinations in India and the neighbourhood (Gulf and Southeast Asia), the airline had even freaked out the Directorate of Civil Aviation, which warned that such rapid expansion could impact safety. As Kingfisher Airlines, Jet Airways and Go First went belly up over the years, IndiGo steadily increased its market share, which currently stands at a staggering 62.6 per cent, a dominance rarely seen in open aviation markets.

But Bhatia (Gangwal is on his way out, diluting his stake as per an armistice reached between the warring co-founders recently) and Elbers are not content. “Our internationalisation strategy is coming to fruition,” says Elbers. “Traditionally, IndiGo was focused on the Gulf region. We are now stretching our wings.”

While Medina (Saudi Arabia) and Bali (Indonesia) are the next two international destinations to be added, taking up the total number to 14, they are only a small part of a larger strategy. IndiGo already has a code-sharing partnership with Turkish Airlines, which has seen not only Indian passengers being herded to the Istanbul hub for flights to destinations across Europe, but also the biggest international flight from India―the wide-bodied Boeing 777s that can carry 531 passengers.

This larger-than-life approach is what gives a different dimension to IndiGo’s plans. It is not just satisfied with being a domestic market leader or even the biggest international operator from India; its aim is to carve for itself a niche as a global operator by turning India into a global hub, similar to what Emirates has done for Dubai, or Singapore Airlines for the city-state.

“About 65 per cent of the world population lives within the range of our aircraft (from India) today; so we have a lot of opportunity to find new routes and destinations,” says Elbers, pointing out how India’s geographical range is helping it to develop its network. For instance, while its current aircraft can fly from Mumbai to Nairobi, it will need bigger planes to do the same destination from Delhi. The vastness of the country allows the airline to operate different destinations from different cities. And the situation will further improve when the aircraft on order, like the Airbus A321XLR (Extra Long Range), come in.

IndiGo’s intent to take the battle to the global carriers is clear. It is offering India as a new hub opportunity for international travellers between east and west, and herding in the increasing number of Indians who are travelling abroad by offering them direct routes, instead of transits through Doha or Dubai.

“I don’t see why foreign carriers can fly to so many places in India and we remain limited to Delhi and Mumbai,” says Elbers. “We can do it ourselves. If Singapore Airlines can fly to more than 10 destinations in India, why should we limit ourselves in India to only fly from one destination to Singapore? It is India’s time. It is also our time. That is the strategy we set for ourselves one year ago.”

But with all that breakneck expansion spree, IndiGo does foresee trouble ahead, particularly with technical glitches and supply chain issues nagging it since the pandemic. The latest, a powder metal problem with its Pratt & Whitney engines. Along with the earlier issues with the A320neo engines, the number of planes to be grounded is estimated to cross 70 by the new year.

“We have adopted a whole range of mitigating measures―leases extended, inducted new ATRs, and have recently arranged for another 11 damp lease aircraft,” says Elbers. But cost control will remain an issue, as leased aircraft will come with older engines, which means less fuel efficiency, which in turn will squeeze profit margins in a business where margins are even otherwise razor thin.

So far a tightly run ship, IndiGo will be in unfamiliar waters with the global expansion owing to the changes to the format it has operated in so far. The departure of Gangwal, a staunch advocate of the low-cost model that had included using only one type of aircraft for cost optimisation in maintenance and pilot training, might have an effect. Some international routes of IndiGo are rumoured to be loss-making, and the airline is yet to make a decision on having business class service, which rakes in a lot more money, on its newer routes. The planes will have to be reconfigured accordingly if the decision is positive though the buzz has picked up pace over the past few days.

Then, there is, of course, the Tatas. Air India is on a five-year transformation exercise, while the nimble Vistara continues to wow passengers with its service excellence so much that the Tatas are said to be going slow in its merger with Air India. The real threat for IndiGo, however, would be from Air India Express, which Bombay House plans to position as an aggressive low-cost carrier for domestic and nearby international routes. Considering that the Tatas’ have deep pockets and deeper patience, IndiGo would need to keep its domestic flanks protected during its eager push into becoming a global carrier.

Elbers though is cool as cucumber, and he has set his eyes on doubling the size of IndiGo by the end of the decade. “Bigger, better and global―that is what IndiGo is doing,” he says. “Representing the size and potential of India itself.”

Aiming high

IndiGo CEO Pieter Elbers on the carrier’s plans

Business class on IndiGo

We are awaiting our Airbus A321 XLR (Extra Long Range) aircraft order. We are awaiting Airbus to share the final capability. We haven’t decided yet whether to introduce business class (on international flights). We will keep that flexible.

Exact configuration (all economy or a mix of economy class and business class) will have some impact on the range (depending on) whether you have 230 passengers or 190. And we have the flexibility to decide on the exact number of XLRs.

India as a transit hub

Our new international destinations are not only connections in itself, but has even (created) connectivity―we now see people flying from Tbilisi to Delhi and then connecting to Phuket. New traffic flows help us realise the vision of India becoming an aviation hub and not only a big market.

Partnerships

New code-share with BA; same with Qatar Airways, Qantas from earlier. Code-share with Turkish means five cities in the US and 30 destinations in Europe. In India, everyone knows IndiGo; outside India, there is still work to be done. These code-shares will help in that.

Geographical position of India is extremely helpful. Not only are we operating domestic in the largest population on earth and the soon-to-be third largest economy in the world, we are also located with a big market to the north, and a relevant market to the east and west. You can go east, west and north from India itself and we develop our partnerships with exactly this in mind. So BA brings in passengers from the UK, Qantas from Australia and with that we are building our global presence.

Increasing delays

I would love to have 1,900 flights a day all leaving on time. Check our OAG (a provider of digital flight information) data, we are thinking as a very ‘on time performance’ airline domestically.

Udan

Some of the Udan routes are building up to be structural routes. Udan is a temporary scheme. Against that backdrop, it is good for IndiGo to participate in it. Routes are opening and we are participating in it. We have the ambition to fly those routes even when Udan is no longer there.

The typical Indian traveller

India hosts today a huge variety of travellers. So we have people who fly Delhi-Mumbai every week, people who fly all over the country because their factories are all over. But we also have first time travellers―people who used to travel on trains but are now coming onboard. The Udan scheme is helping in that. The Indian consumer is a huge variety. On an average plane of IndiGo, if you ask who is flying for the first time, you see a lot of hands going up. Udan has played a significant part in that.

Flying to Russia and China

I don’t want to speculate. We will monitor the Indian government’s position on this (flying to Russia) before deciding. Today, it’s not in our planning, but we are not ruling out anything going forward.

Regarding China, we have opened our flights to Hong Kong, and, of course, we monitor the situation there closely.

Looking ahead

We will continue our network expansion. We have 85 destinations within India, and we will continue adding new routes.

chief-economic-adviser-to-the-union-government-v-anantha-nageswaran-interview

Sat Dec 02 12:12:50 IST 2023

Genial but sharp, soft-spoken but articulate, V. Anantha Nageswaran has a knack for balancing extremes. The chief economic adviser to the Union government does not see the economy slowing down in the near future, but has already identified factors that would affect it in the long term. In an interview with THE WEEK, he talks about the effects of the Palestine-Israel conflict to India, the debt of the states and the need to prioritise health. Excerpts:

Q/ You said the short-term economic prospects of India were good and growth will be steady in the medium term, but beyond 2030, there would be major challenges. What are the issues that we should address now so that we can sustain the good growth rate?

A/ I believe our current growth rate is sustainable, maintaining a robust average of around 6.5 per cent per annum in real terms until the end of this decade. However, to sustain or even surpass this growth rate afterwards, there are internal challenges that we must address.

A key focus should be on ensuring that education and skilling of young Indians are adequate, making them increasingly employable. While there has been significant improvement―with the employability of graduates rising from one-third to 50 per cent―further enhancements are necessary.

Certain sectors still face skill shortages, indicating that graduates in specific specialisations are not yet job-ready. This aspect requires attention and transformation.

The second is the need for India to prioritise health and fitness. We must learn from the mistakes made by the west. We don’t have to go through the same cycle of learning; we can glean insights from their experiences. It is crucial to avoid repeating the cycle of errors, such as the overconsumption of junk food and sugar-rich beverages, as well as neglecting physical activity. Only a healthy economy can be a productive economy, only a healthy citizen can be a productive citizen.

The third concern is the imperative of ensuring energy security for sustained growth. While the emphasis on renewable energy and energy transition is significant, prioritising energy security takes precedence. If these three things are addressed by all levels of government, not just the Union government, and also by the citizens themselves, then the growth will be sustained.

Externally, we must remain vigilant regarding geopolitical conflicts. The worsening of such conflicts can lead to uncontrollable consequences, including disruptions in trade and the flow of raw materials. We must be prepared to address them as they arise.

Q/ How would the Israel-Palestine conflict impact India’s long-term economic growth plans?

A/ At this stage, I don’t believe it will directly impact us unless there is a significant disruption in global crude oil supplies. Interestingly, over the past month and a half, since tensions escalated between Israel and Hamas, the oil price has decreased. As of November 17, Brent crude, closely linked to the Indian crude oil basket, is just above $80 per barrel. Therefore, asserting that it will significantly impact the Indian economy necessitates making assumptions that may be far-fetched at this stage.

Q/ Are we facing a situation where we are failing to create enough jobs despite high economic growth?

A/ That is not true at all. According to the periodic labour force survey, the unemployment rate for Indian youth has decreased from 17 per cent to 10 per cent. It is perplexing why there is such reluctance to take the periodic labour force survey seriously. India’s overall unemployment rate, which rose during the Covid-19 pandemic, has significantly declined. This improvement is evident in both rural and urban employment, as well as in youth employment. Across these categories, unemployment rates are decreasing and have made substantial progress since the peak of the pandemic. The Indian economy is, indeed, generating jobs. This optimism is reflected in household perceptions of job creation, as indicated by the RBI survey of consumer confidence.

The optimism expressed by households aligns with the eagerness of industries to hire, a sentiment evident in the industrial outlook survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India. This willingness is further reflected in the job growth of listed companies in India. In the fiscal year 2022, job growth in listed companies stood at about 8 per cent, and in FY23, it was around 5 per cent, accompanied by commendable wage and compensation growth. Contrary to a prevalent misconception, the data affirms that the Indian economy is actively generating employment. The evidence suggests that job creation is on an upward trajectory and is poised to further escalate in the coming years.

Q/ Bibek Debroy, chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, recently said the government was losing revenue due to the GST, which should be revenue neutral with a single rate. Do you share his view?

A/ I need to delve into the specifics of what he mentioned because I haven’t had a chance to read the report on the statements made by the EAC PM. When the GST was implemented in 2017, the revenue-neutral rate was closer to 15 per cent. However, it seems to have decreased by about three percentage points now, settling somewhere between 11 per cent and 12 per cent. I believe that was the point he intended to convey. The decrease in the revenue-neutral rate can be attributed to various exemptions, resulting in a lower effective GST rate. And that is a legitimate point to make.

Q/ Many states are neck-deep in debt. How much would you attribute the freebie culture to this situation? Also, some states say that the Union government is trying to undermine their fiscal freedom.

A/ In the larger scheme of things, the GST implemented by states has exhibited a much swifter growth compared to the individual state sales tax revenues of the past. That is why this argument is no longer being raised. Moreover, states retain the authority to impose taxes on property and increase user charges; products like alcohol and petroleum products are still outside the GST framework. Additionally, states possess the flexibility to enhance their fiscal situation by making decisions in areas still under their control. Before raising concerns about their revenue generation scope being curtailed, states should first demonstrate that they have fully utilised and tapped into all potential sources of revenue available to them.

Drawing conclusions about if deficits have widened due to a freebie culture requires a detailed analysis of the specific factors contributing to the increase in debts among certain states. Making off-the-cuff statements is challenging without a comprehensive breakdown of these causes. Generally, the fiscal deficit of state governments is well below 3 per cent, but concerns arise from elevated debt ratios in some states. To address this, it is crucial to investigate the reasons behind the growing debt burden. This includes examining whether it results from a freebie culture, a failure to adjust user charges for key consumption items and utilities, or a lack of revision in property index values and property tax rates. A thorough examination of these details is necessary before attributing the debt increase to a particular factor.

Q/ Some states have complaints about the central government stopping the GST compensation.

A/ I believe this is a matter for the GST Council to deliberate upon. It [GST compensation] was originally meant for five years. The GST, as an indirect tax revenue system, has proven its mettle and has come of age. The actual revenue growth has consistently increased year after year. In that sense, this may be a moot point.

Q/ Are we on track to achieve our commitments on green transitioning? Also, what are the challenges we are facing now in balancing our industrial growth and green commitments?

A/ I believe we have performed exceptionally well so far, surpassing many others. A report by the International Finance Corporation released in early October highlights that among the G20 countries, India has made the most significant progress in shifting towards renewable energy. In this context, India is well ahead of many other nations in its energy transition. Importantly, this transition has not impeded industrialisation; rather, it has facilitated it.

However, looking ahead, as the proportion of renewable or non-fossil fuel energy increases in India’s overall energy mix, challenges will arise. It is important to note that this is not unique to India; many countries, including advanced ones, grapple with similar issues. Concerns such as grid stability, battery storage, and the availability of critical minerals and rare earths essential for renewable energy are shared challenges faced by the global community. In this regard, India has navigated its transition toward non-fossil fuel energy more effectively than many other nations, as acknowledged by the IFC report.

Q/ On the economic side, how are we preparing ourselves to fight with China?

A/ I don’t perceive it as a matter of contention or a trade-off. China’s rise occurred during a period when the US and western countries were flourishing. Likewise, it is not a zero-sum game. I think there is enough scope for India to rise, even as China’s growth rate levels off. Because it has now reached a certain level in the GDP, where naturally its growth rate will be lower. India is ready to pick up the baton, and India’s growth rate will improve.

understanding-multi-asset-investing

Sat Nov 18 12:12:48 IST 2023

‘DON’T KEEP ALL EGGS in one basket’ is a popular adage in the investment world. Simply put, concentrating your investments in a single asset class ties your fortune to the vagaries of that asset class. Investors increasingly realise that having a well-balanced and structured portfolio is key to long-term returns and peace of mind. This is why multi-asset investing as a single-window and all-weather solution has gained prominence.

Story of multiples

Due to the dynamic nature of global markets and economic cycles, it is impossible to consistently invest in the winning asset class. Also, each asset class may have prolonged cycles of outperformance and underperformance. Historical data also demonstrates that no single asset class performs consistently well. An investor who invests 100% of their hard-earned money in a single asset class leaves their investment vulnerable to the asset’s ups and downs. During good times, this may pay off, but during bad times, such a strategy may not suit the investors’ risk appetite. This can cause a suboptimal return experience.

Multi-asset investing, which is best routed through a multi-asset mutual fund in India, can provide diversified exposure to various asset classes through a single fund. The mandate of such a fund is to invest in three or more asset classes. Typical asset classes where multi-asset allocation funds invest are equity, equity arbitrage, debt/fixed income, gold, silver, international equities, REITs, and InvITs. As a result, investors who wish to lower portfolio volatility and aim for greater predictability of returns should consider a multi-asset offering as a core part of their portfolio.

By virtue of having a diversified portfolio, multi-asset funds help reduce risks. Diversification works best when the constituents of a portfolio do not move in tandem as a result of a macroeconomic or market development. Different assets move in response to various factors and thrive in different types of market conditions. Instead of focusing on one or two asset classes, multi-asset investing is about finding the right asset allocation mix across a number of assets and fine-tuning exposure as and when required. These are the important factors that will determine your actual return experience. By spreading your investments across different assets, you are essentially betting on the entire team rather than a single star player.

Mix and match

There are different approaches to multi-asset investing, each with its pros and cons. Within the multi-asset mutual fund offering, there are various types available. If the goal is to generate low-volatility fixed-income equivalent returns, the multi-asset investment approach should focus on fixed-income and equity arbitrage. The other assets serve only as a supplement to the primary goal of capital preservation. Here, gains would be taxed in a debt-like manner.

However, if the goal is to generate growth-like returns, the multi-asset framework should focus on equities while using other assets as counterbalancing forces. Even in this approach, where equities have the upper hand, the priority would be to mitigate volatility. Taxation of gains would be more optimal, given the equity edge.

The benefit of multi-asset investing is that the investment approach is dynamic in terms of asset allocation decisions and allows for choosing the instruments that best play each asset class. Another significant advantage of multi asset investing is that shifts made across asset classes within the fund by the fund manager are not taxed at the hands of the investor, while if one tries to do this on a portfolio level, the tax liability on these changes could be significant.

Over the long term, such an approach leads to better risk and tax adjusted returns.

Choices available

Multi-asset falls under the hybrid category of mutual fund schemes. With over a dozen offerings, this category has more than Rs 34,000 crore in investor assets under management. Given the nature of the fund, it is ideal for both new as well as experienced investors. According to Value Research data, multi-asset funds posted 14.45 per cent in the one-year period ending September 5, 2023. In the 3-year period, the returns are higher at 16.12 per cent.

Given the wide variety of options available, investors should look at the fund management team’s strength when selecting a fund. This is because multi-asset funds carve their niche by surviving in an environment of complicated interplay between multiple assets and investment decisions involved. So, an experienced team that has over the years managed to grow investor wealth is essential.

In conclusion, a multi asset fund deserves a place in every portfolio, both, through the lumpsum and SIP route, in order to optimize risk and return over the long term given market volatility and changes in the economy.

Writer is managing partner at Credel Capital Financial Services LLP

why-insolvency-and-bankruptcy-code-remains-a-work-in-progress

Tue Nov 21 15:25:02 IST 2023

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) admitted the petition of Bank of India to initiate insolvency proceedings against Future Retail Ltd on July 20, 2022, after the company defaulted on payments to lenders. The proposal is yet to be resolved.

Jet Airways was referred to the National Company Law Tribunal for bankruptcy proceedings in 2019, and the consortium of Dubai-based businessman Murari Lal Jalan and the UK’s Kalrock Capital won the bid for the airline in 2020. The deal has been mired in a legal tussle between the consortium and the committee of creditors on issues related to funds infusion, and the airline is still grounded.

What necessitated the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), brought in by the Narendra Modi government in 2016, was the inordinate delay in resolving such cases. Under the IBC, the settlement had to be completed within 180 days, with the option of 90 days extension. The timeline was later extended to 330 days. The Future Retail and the Jet Airways cases well past that timeline.

And these are not the only cases that were delayed. The Bhushan Steel case took more than 500 days to resolve. Telecom company Aircel shut shop in March 2018 and filed for bankruptcy. The resolution plan was approved by the NCLT in June 2020, some 800 days later.

And it is not getting any better. According to the IBBI, as on June 30, the average time taken for closure of a corporate insolvency resolution process (CIRP) was 643 days for financial creditors, 635 days for operational creditors and 541 days for corporate debtors. This is significantly more than the average time taken for closure of CIRP a year ago (552 days for financial creditors, 555 days for operational creditors and 518 days for corporate debtors).

And the realisations are abysmally low. For instance, the highest bid for Future Retail was just about Rs550 crore, when the lenders’ claims were for more than Rs19,000 crore. If the lenders are to accept this bid, they will have to take a haircut of 97 per cent. Naturally, differences have emerged among the lenders whether to accept the bid or not. According to the IBBI, financial creditors could realise only 34 per cent of their total claims as of June 30, 2023. The realisations for operational creditors and corporate debtors were far lower at 17.7 per cent and 18.3 per cent, respectively.

“Judicial delay is one of the most significant reasons for the delays in resolution,” said Soumitra Majumdar, partner at the law firm J. Sagar Associates. “Multiplicity of litigations and the time taken by the courts in resolving them have pushed up the resolution timelines.”

These cases often have many legal complexities, and there could be many rounds of litigation and bureaucratic delays. “The judicial system, overburdened with cases, can contribute to these delays, especially when the matters involve intricate financial and legal issues that require comprehensive review,” said Sonam Chandwani, managing partner at KS Legal and Associates. “Moreover, stakeholder conflicts and challenges in obtaining clearances and approvals have also exacerbated the timeline.”

In fact, the delays are often responsible for the lower resolutions. “With chronic delays in resolution, often a large part of the value is lost, resulting in reduced real recoveries by the creditors,” said Majumdar. Many cases have ended in liquidation. In such cases, stakeholders barely realise 6 to 9 per cent of their claims.

Of the 6,815 cases that had been admitted for CIRP till June 30, says IBBI data, resolution plans were approved in 720 and liquidation orders were passed in 2,120. There were 2,073 ongoing cases, 897 cases were withdrawn, and 1,005 cases were closed on appeal or review, or settled. Analysts say the number of cases going into liquidation is likely to remain high going ahead. “As of the first quarter of FY24, 65 per cent of ongoing cases have passed 270 days since admission, with another 10 per cent crossing 180 days,” said Kotak Institutional Equities analysts M.B. Mahesh and Nischint Chawathe.

Why has the IBC failed to achieve desired results?

Some experts say it is still a work in progress. “Earlier we were dependent on BIFR (Board of Financial Reconstruction). We have now moved to IBC. And like any institutional framework, IBC is also maturing with constant evolution. Data released last year showed they have made 84 amendments to 18 regulations made under the code. Also, the government has amended the code six times in the past six years,” said Sagar Desai, senior analyst at India Ratings and Research. IBBI are working towards things like common IT infrastructure or portal among all the stakeholders where the IBC process could be managed and tracked from start to end. In some cases, differences in valuation reports given by different valuers also complicates matters, said Desai.

Nonetheless, “IBC has been successful in bringing a behavioural change among the borrowers, by enforcing the fear of losing control of the business,” said Desai.

Experts suggest a multi-pronged approach to improve realisations. “Adopting standardised valuation methodologies can ensure a more realistic and fair asset pricing,” said Chandwani. Encouraging out-of-court settlements before resorting to formal IBC procedures can also improve recoveries and reduce the time for resolution.

Strengthening the bankruptcy courts will be instrumental in realising the full potential of the IBC, and bolstering the information utilities will reduce the time spent in establishing default, leading to quicker initiation of the process. “Sticking to the specified timelines and timely resolutions will preserve the asset quality. Naturally, this should lead to improved realisations and reduced costs,” said Majumdar.

Banks have significantly reduced their non-performing assets. But, of late, credit growth has also picked up. Last financial year, scheduled commercial banks’ credit grew around 16 per cent, outpacing deposit growth by 3 per cent. The expectation is that this year, too, the credit growth will be 14 per cent to 15 per cent.

After the global financial crisis in 2008, banks saw strong double digit credit growth between 2009 to 2013. That was followed by a cycle of sharp rise in bad loans, which eventually led to the enactment of the IBC. This time around, however, corporates have largely remained strong. But only time can tell how things pan out in the years to come. The stakeholders are banking on a more evolved IBC to deal with resolutions, should the number of stressed assets go up again.

how-an-indian-boy-fulfilled-his-dream-of-making-airplanes

Fri Nov 10 18:04:36 IST 2023

All that little Augustine dreamt of were airplanes―flying them high in the sky, soaring over the clouds. He lived near an airport, and he knew a way to get past its fence and the security guards. Often, he would wait until it was dark, and hide near the runway. He felt a thrill every time he saw a plane approach, its lights shining brightly and its engine roaring, and his body would shake with the loud noise and the rumbling. He would imagine himself in the cockpit, steering the bird to its destination.

The more he watched them, the more he wanted to fly them. In fact, he wanted to make them. The small-town boy did not know how he was going to. But he never stopped dreaming.

And then a door opened. “I had the opportunity to join the National Cadet Corps,” says Captain Augustine Joseph on a video call from California. The little boy from Thiruvananthapuram is now the proud owner of the American high-performance aircraft manufacturer Lancair Aerospace International. It sells in 34 countries and has manufactured some 2,400 airplanes.

“You get one or two flights in the NCC, and the interest kept growing,” says Joseph, 56. He could have joined the flying club in Thiruvananthapuram, but he was not keen on flying the low-performance planes they had. “My interest was to fly those powerful jets,” he says. “And I found out that if I joined the Air Force, I could fly big jets and fighter jets.”

After clearing most tests for admission to the National Defence Academy, he ran into an unexpected hurdle at the Command Hospital Air Force in Bangalore. On the last day of the medical, he was told that he was overweight by 21kg and so they had to let him go. “Not knowing what to do, I reached the commander’s office, but was not let in,” says Joseph. He tried every day for a week to meet the officer, but without success. “One day, as he was walking out for lunch, he stopped and asked, ‘Son, I’ve seen you here a few days. Why are you here?’” He explained the situation, and somehow convinced the officer to give him a month to reduce his weight. “I went home, and from morning till night, I was running, playing basketball, cycling and swimming, and one month later, I was down by 18kg. I went back to him in Bangalore. He was very happy. And that’s how I got admission into the NDA.”

NDA changed everything he had thought about flying. “Little did I know that it took many years of physical training and other education to get started,” he says. After the training at NDA, he went to the Air Force Academy in Dundigal, Telangana.

A career in the Air Force was probably the best thing Joseph could have had in India of the 1980s and 1990s. “I was enjoying my flying,” he says. “I flew in many parts of the country, including the Himalayan region, and had exciting missions. But then as you become senior, you get into the administrative side of things. And when it got to that stage, I realised that I was not flying much.”

Joseph always had a keen interest in making aircraft more efficient by designing them better. Though he was not an engineer, he spent a lot of time with the mechanics and the maintenance crew. “Very few pilots would really spend time with them,” he says. “I was knowledgeable about the mechanics and technical side of aircraft.”

But he hated pushing files, and did not want to spend the rest of his life doing that. And so, he made a big decision. “I decided to take voluntary retirement from the Air Force,” he says. “My family thought I was being stupid. They were very proud of my being an Air Force officer.”

And he was leaving that with no other job in sight. “It was just a dream,” says Joseph. “Only my mother supported me.” His mother, Roma, had lost her husband quite early and had raised five children on her own. A social worker, she raised 27 orphans in her house after her children left the nest. “She told me to follow my dreams,” says Joseph.

And he did. But it was not easy. “It was a big, big decision,” says Joseph, who retired as a wing commander. He did not think about moving to another country at that time. He wanted to realise his dream of building planes in India. “I tried that path for some time, and I realised that I was pushing the wall, he says. “Those days, it was not easy to get anything done there. The system was heavily loaded against you. That was when I started thinking about going to a place where it could be done.”

Joseph moved to the US in 2000 on a student visa, along with his wife, Nancy, and son, Theodore. He had figured out that he could convert his licences in the US and then get into the aviation industry. But for that he had to attend a school there. It was expensive; so, he secured a bank loan to fund it.

When they landed in the US, he suddenly realised that he did not have a place to stay or a car to drive. “I used to be chauffeured around in government cars in India,” he says. “From there, I became a nobody.” He rented a small place and started training. “It was frustrating for me that I was much more experienced than the instructor who was teaching me, and I was paying him to teach me,” he says.

He worked overtime to get the licences as quickly as possible. “I ended up taking eight licenses―all the airplane licenses from the beginning to the highest and all the helicopter licenses from the beginning to the highest―in three months, which had never been done in the US,” says Joseph.

The real test, however, was getting a job. He had started applying for one even before he got the final licence. But nobody wanted to hire him because he was not American. But he did not give up. “I sent out hundreds of applications and got two responses,” he says. One of them was in Hawaii to fly helicopters. Joseph rang up the employer and asked if he could start the following Monday. Then he called up his examiner and asked if he could do the final test on Sunday. “It was Easter Sunday, but he agreed. I sold everything I had and took a one-way ticket to Hawaii,” he says.

Apparently, he had a Plan B. “I would have worked in a restaurant or sold peanuts and beef,” he says. “I had a friend who worked at Taj Kovalam in Thiruvananthapuram. He was the chief of the culinary science school there. I learned to make tandoori chicken from him.”

His Plan A, though, worked out quite well. He worked so hard that he soon became a director, and his employer let him run the company. A few years later, he started his own helicopter company. It had contracts from cruise ships to take their passengers to the active volcano Kilauea and to the waterfalls and valleys on the Hawaiian islands of Kauai, Maui and Oahu, where the movie Jurassic Park was shot. It also had contracts from the government geology department to take geologists to the volcano. It was a flourishing business. But then tragedy struck.

“One day, I was flying a helicopter with the geologists, eight passengers on board,” says Joseph. “When I was on top of the volcano, the engines failed. There was no place to land because it was all lava around. I knew that there was a small trail behind me that the geologists used to take. I quickly turned it around and crash-landed it on the slope of the volcano. Everybody survived. I broke my back, neck and a bunch of other bones. That got me into the hospital for several years.”

His doctors told him he would never walk again. But he refused to accept that. “I went every day to the gym, the swimming pool, and physiotherapy,” he says. And he went back to college and did two majors in business administration. But the hospital experience was the real education. He started a health care company called Surgery Planet that used technology to help patients get treatment at a lower cost. It was a success, with thousands of patients and hospitals signing up.

But Joseph knew he had to get back into flying as quickly as possible. “In the military, if you have an accident or somebody has crashed and died in your squadron, they typically have everybody fly the next day itself. So that people don’t have that mental block,” he says.

He got back on his feet in three and a half years. And he went straight back to the helicopter. “I had to do it to overcome that mental block, but I was sweating and my heart rate was very high,” he says. “But I had to control it and learn how to be comfortable inside the cockpit. It was a long process.”

Joseph had to sell his helicopter company to take care of the legal proceedings. “My passengers sued me because it was my company,” he says. He lost everything, including his house, and lived out of his car for months. “Every other week I was in deposition with the attorneys, going to the court, in a wheelchair,” he says. “And I had to raise two kids. People often think that a stroke of luck or an easy path made you successful. But, you know.”

Joseph sold the health care company, started a tech company, and sold that, too. He always wanted to be in aviation. And for that he had to be physically capable. “The fifth year after my accident, I ran the San Francisco Marathon, the Oakland Marathon and the Bay to Breakers footrace, which gave me the confidence that I was back,” he says. “I got my medical certificate and then I started a company for pilot training called JetEXE Aviation. It trains some 200 pilots a year from all over the world. We have 60 to 100 students every year from India.”

And then the Lancair opportunity came up. “It is not like one day I woke up and decided to buy Lancair,” says Joseph “I was maybe six or seven when I first dreamt about making planes. And after 50 years, the dream came true.” JetEXE acquired Lancair in October 2023.

Founded by Lance A. Neibauer in 1981, Lancair (pronounced lance-air) sold its first airplane kit in 1984. A kit aircraft is built by private individuals rather than in a factory, and is generally meant for recreational use. They are popular among enthusiasts because they are highly customisable. Lancair sells both kits and fully-assembled aircraft. And it has both experimental and certified planes as well. “The only difference between the certified and the non-certified is that you cannot use non-certified planes for commercial purposes,” says Joseph.

Currently, Colombian and Mexican defence forces also use Lancair aircraft for training of pilots. “There are several other countries that have used it,” says Joseph. Cessna bought one of its models, Columbia 400, and sold it for many years.

Experimental aircraft play an important role in innovation in aviation, because it is much easier to make changes on them than on certified aircraft. “The time it takes for getting certified by organisations like the FAA, or the DGCA in India, is very long and it is very expensive. It can take five to 10 years after you finish producing an airplane to get it certified. So, it is very difficult to make any changes.”

Unfortunately, the experimental aircraft ecosystem is almost non-existent in India. But Joseph wants to change that. “My dream now is to bring Lancair to India and start developing the market and make aviation a lot more prominent,” he says. “By the time some of our organisations finish the design, it is obsolete. We want to do it faster, keep up with technology and advancement so that we are competing globally.”

He is planning to associate with an Indian company with a presence in the segment. “We are looking into several leading organisations, which are already big manufacturing houses,” he says. “We have intelligent, smart, skilled people in India, and we can produce our own planes with our engineers. This is a good base from which we can start innovating and creating. It is not just for the Indian market. You can produce it in India and sell it worldwide.”

the-week-and-apollo-hospitals-walkathon-navi-mumbai-breast-cancer-awareness

Fri Nov 10 18:00:01 IST 2023

Sundays are for snooze. But on October 29, Mini Seashore Ground in Vashi, Navi Mumbai, woke up to the sound of happy feet.

THE WEEK, in association with Apollo Hospitals, Navi Mumbai, organised a walkathon to create awareness about breast cancer. But first came warmup―-participants attended a high-on-energy Zumba session for 30 minutes. At 6.30am, the walkathon was flagged off by Santosh Marathe, CEO, western region, Apollo Hospitals, lead consultant for breast surgery Dr Nita S. Nair and senior consultant for medical oncology Dr Tejinder Singh of Apollo Cancer Centres, Navi Mumbai, and Richa Bhargava, wellness and leadership coach associated with Apollo Hospitals.

“Today more than a thousand people have gathered at the venue and this shows how crucial it is to tackle the issue of breast cancer,”said Dr Rajesh Shinde, oncologist, Apollo Hospitals. Shinde, who also walked for the cause, stressed on the need for regular checkups among women, especially those above 40 years.

Richa Bhargava said it was important for women to look after themselves. Agreed Dr Kiran Shingote, who said that through this initiative “we, at Apollo Cancer Centres, hope to highlight the significance of early diagnosis in breast cancer”. The event also saw five breast cancer survivors share their journey. They were later felicitated with mementos.

Given the overwhelming response to the event, THE WEEK’s resident chief general manager Shree Kumar Menon said that THE WEEK would continue with this initiative and remain committed to the cause of breast cancer awareness.

anti-defection-law-india-analysis

Mon Sep 30 14:07:16 IST 2024

Two states going to polls are integral to the story of the anti-defection law―Haryana and Maharashtra. While Haryana provides the historical backdrop for the enactment of the law, the large-scale defections and change of regime in Maharashtra that took place more recently is the peg on which the demand for an amendment in the law rests.

The Haryana politician Gaya Lal is legendary. His astounding political somersaults after the first assembly elections in the state in 1967 earned him notoriety that has long survived him. The Congress had won the election with a slim majority, getting 48 out of 81 seats, and the government had fallen less than a week after it was formed. Amid the political chaos, Lal, who was an independent legislator and in great demand, changed parties four times in one day―from the Congress to the Janata Party, back to the Congress, again to the Janata Party and then once again back to the Congress! Two weeks later, he had joined the rival United Front. In the intervening period, he had also joined the Arya Sabha and the Bharatiya Lok Dal.

At one juncture, when he was back in the Congress after having switched to the Janata Party, a party leader declared his return at a news conference, saying, “Gaya Lal is now Aya Lal!” Thus was born the phrase ‘Aya Ram, Gaya Ram’, which has often been used to describe the tendency of Indian politicians to switch parties frequently. Incidentally, Gaya Lal’s son Udai Bhan is the current president of the Haryana Congress and will be contesting from Hodal, which was earlier represented by Lal. He maintains his father never betrayed anyone, and that he was given a raw deal by the parties.

The year 1967 is regarded as a time when political instability hit several states and the era of defections and horse-trading began. Coalition governments were formed and as many as 32 governments collapsed one after the other because of legislators changing their allegiances. That same year, the first structured discussion on the need for a law to curb defections began, with P. Venkatasubbaiah, a Lok Sabha MP belonging to the Congress, moving a resolution seeking the appointment of a committee to recommend ways to deal with the problem of defections.

After some unsuccessful attempts to enact a legislation, in early 1985, emboldened by its colossal majority in the Lok Sabha, the Rajiv Gandhi government succeeded in passing in Parliament the Constitution (52nd Amendment) Bill, or the anti-defection legislation. With the enactment of the law, the Tenth Schedule was inserted into the Constitution that contained provisions regarding disqualification of an MP or an MLA on grounds of defection. Political opponents had derisively called the legislation a save-the-Congress endeavour as the ruling party had suffered from desertions on multiple occasions since 1967.

The Congress now wants it to be amended. In fact, in its manifesto for the Lok Sabha elections this year, it wanted an MLA or an MP leaving the party he or she got elected from to be a ground for automatic disqualification. In recent years, the Congress has lost governments in many states because of its legislators crossing over to the rival camp en masse.

It was indeed ironic that the Congress’s legal eagle Abhishek Manu Singhvi, who has been a lawyer in almost all the court cases that have to do with defections, should become a victim of defections himself. In early 2024, Singhvi was the party candidate to the Rajya Sabha from Himachal Pradesh, a state the Congress rules and where the numbers were heavily tilted in his favour. However, some Congress MLAs switched allegiance right before the election, and Singhvi, after three consecutive terms in the upper house, found himself out of it.

A shocked Singhvi had then said, “They have taught us a lot because they supped with us till 11pm last night and three of them had breakfast with us.” He was subsequently elected to the Rajya Sabha from Congress-ruled Telangana.

Statistics reveal that more defections have taken place after the anti-defection law was enacted. It is widely accepted that the law has allowed wholesale defections, and thus toppling of governments.

The developments in Maharashtra since 2022 become important here. While they have a huge bearing on the political dynamics in the state and will have an impact on how the state votes in the coming assembly elections, they also bring into sharp focus the problems in the implementation of the law. From the exception provided to two-thirds of the legislators crossing the floor to the role of the speaker to questions about the decision taken by the Election Commission in granting symbols and party names to the Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions, the big defection rush in Maharashtra gave rise to several pertinent questions about the law.

THE WEEK takes an in-depth look at the working of the anti-defection law four decades after it came into being.

the-current-state-of-the-anti-defection-law-is-affecting-democracy-itself

Sat Sep 28 12:42:00 IST 2024

UNFORTUNATELY, TALKING ABOUT the Tenth Schedule and defections forces me to use the Shakespearean adage, “the law is an ass”. We, the operators of the Tenth Schedule, and that means all stakeholders and not just politicians, have actually made it an ass. If I tell you the kind of jugaads we have adopted on the subject of defections, you will actually start laughing. And it would be really comic, were it not tragic.

If Gaya Lal was alive today, he would go and jump off a cliff for not having thought of any of these things!

Let me give you a few examples that may shock you. They may amuse you, but, above all, they will tell you all about our great genius to render non-functional something created with the highest ideals, distort something intended to be noble and high.

First is a fundamental question about the speaker’s post. We have adopted these things from Britain. In the old days, speakers were elected unopposed and had credibility by virtue of being genuinely unaffiliated. That is the first reform we need. The rhetorical sermonising from the pulpit, that when I sit on the speaker’s chair I leave behind all of my affiliations and I am not political, that is just not true. The speaker cannot at all sever his umbilical cord. He is a partisan person of a political party. Speakers of the assembly and the Parliament must be elected unopposed and given full authority to be independent.

The fulcrum of the Tenth Schedule is the speaker―the persona designata. The only one who can decide on complaints under the Tenth Schedule. The chosen arbiter. The persona designata has to be brutally and genuinely independent.

Secondly, now, the inbuilt delay [in deciding defection complaints] arises from the politics of it. If I am party A, and you defect from my party and join party B, a speaker of party A will immediately take up the complaint and take a decision. But, if the speaker belongs to B, there are any number of cases where the speaker will indefinitely and interminably prolong the complaint for months, or even years. I have handled cases in Tamil Nadu where the speaker did not decide for years. I go to the High Court, which says we cannot give a direction to the speaker. We go to the Supreme Court, which says, yes, we can give a direction to the speaker, let the speaker decide within so and so time. Then the speaker seeks extensions and finally decides three months before the end of the tenure of the assembly!

In Manipur, in his usual style, Justice [Rohinton Fali] Nariman met the issue head on and prescribed a period of three months. Unfortunately, that is completely observed in the breach because it is not statutory.

Thirdly, it is a misconception that there is a two-thirds split concept in the Tenth Schedule. There is no such thing that you go with two-thirds number and you are immune from the law. You become immune only if two-thirds go with you, and I repeat, and merge with another political party. The second part is forgotten by everyone.

Take, for example, the Maharashtra case. [Eknath] Shinde and team are clearly defectors because there is no merger with any party. But that part of the explicit text of the Tenth Schedule is ignored.

Fourthly, the time you take in deciding whether you have voluntarily given up your seat is mostly a waste of time because now there are enough judgments which say that myriad situations of a diverse character will constitute giving up your seat. I do not have to say I join you, or I defect to you. If I am seen with you, accompanying you in the bus to the governor, and standing with the governor with the list of people, that is also defection. If I write to you, if I support you, if I vote against you, or I abstain from voting, these are each taken up as a de novo paradigm every time the case comes up and speakers spend days and months on it, to delay matters, even though earlier judgments have definitively decided that these are all defections.

Fifth is the period of notice. Normally, assemblies have a provision providing for either 14 days or seven days. This is done for good, positive reasons of natural justice. But it can be easily misused. Take, for example, a case where a budget session is going on and I am a defector. I leave your party and directly vote in the budget session the following day. As you know, on a vote on a money bill, the government can fall. Now, I have defected, the government has fallen, but I will then seek seven days’ notice. I will continue to enjoy the fruits of my defection. I will continue to be an MLA. But in the recent case in Himachal Pradesh, the speaker, rightly―by the way, in Himachal Pradesh, I was a victim [of defections]―said I am giving you one day’s notice. What is the need for a notice? In the Rajya Sabha election, you have to show your vote. You have voted contrary to the party whip and that means you are defecting. So he gave them one day’s notice and disqualified them. Otherwise, the government would have fallen as the budget session was on.

Sixth is probably the most absurd, which is now fortunately pending for consideration before a larger bench of the Supreme Court. A five-judge bench of the Supreme Court, in the Nabam Rebia judgment said that if I defect, but at the time of defection or before defection, I level a genuine allegation about the speaker―lack of faith, bias, etc―then the speaker is disabled from deciding on the complaint against defection as long as a notice seeking his removal is pending. Now, this paragraph is, first of all, wrong and loosely worded. Second, look at the bizarre ways in which this is being misused. This happened in Maharashtra. All the defectors sat together and decided they are defecting. They know they will be disqualified immediately by the speaker because they are going away to other cities, sitting with the other side, openly cohabiting with the BJP. So before leaving Mumbai, they make a complaint against the speaker. When the speaker takes up the disqualification petition, there is an objection to it. He cannot decide on it.

Unfortunately, with great respect to the Supreme Court, an erroneous order was made disabling the speaker from deciding, allowing the defectors to enjoy the fruits of defection. It is like saying that I disable the judge by making an allegation and I will go and commit a criminal act.

Seventh is another stratagem, another jugaad adopted in India, which the framers of the Tenth Schedule or Gaya Lal never even dreamt of. You will find this new stratagem in the Maharashtra cases, and I have done all these cases. Say I am defecting tomorrow, and today I file a complaint in the Election Commission saying I am the real party, please give me the symbol and decide on my petition. And then, I defect. Consequences follow as per the Tenth Schedule. But before the speaker decides, and he could be delaying, because of either a friendly Central government or a friendly EC, I get my EC complaint decided first. The EC decides I am the real party, the symbol is mine, and that is then used to say there is no defection.

Now, the Supreme Court in the Sunil Prabhu case (petition filed by the Uddhav Thackeray faction) has rightly debunked this. The Supreme Court has specifically said the EC and the Tenth Schedule operate in different spheres. It is ridiculous to say that the EC, operating under a non-statutory symbols order (Election Symbols Order, 1968) with the speaker operating under the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution, will be able to render the speaker’s decision infructuous.

Eighth, an important point is the retrospective aspect of defection which is frequently forgotten. I defect today, you are the speaker, you delay, or you do not delay, I delay the decision-making by filing applications, and you take one year to decide. In that one year, the government falls, the defectors form the government. But when the decision comes a year later, it is found that you have defected. Now, the law is clear. One year later, when the decision of the speaker comes, it relates back, because the act of defection happened one year earlier. That decision applies from the inception, which means on the day the new government was formed, it was formed by the vote of defectors. What this means is that those votes have to be excluded and the government has to go, which is exactly what happened in the Sunil Prabhu case.

Ninth, and this is the amazing part―the Supreme Court said, yes, there is defection in the aforesaid Sunil Prabhu case and the judgment on defection must relate back, and so, it must be deemed that the voting in the floor test was invalid because it had the votes of defectors. But then, the Supreme Court, with great respect to them, nullified that conclusion by further finding that you are not liable for a change of government because Uddhav Thackeray did not take the floor test. That is irrelevant. You have to only exclude the votes of the defectors. If I decide not to take part in the voting on the floor, how does that change the illegality of defection?

Tenth, take another example. Suppose the BJP is in power and a Congressman defects to the BJP. That Congressman is not disqualified because the speaker is considering the petition for six months. He is made a minister as a reward for defection. He does not have to be re-elected for six months. This encourages defection. You have to prohibit such ploys by saying you cannot be a minister without an election in such cases.

I have given you many examples. Do you not think this kind of jugaad, distortion, manipulation, deceit and lack of bona fides make the law an ass? Then, eleventh, my final point, does it not make it necessary to scrap the Tenth Schedule and have a simple rule that the moment I cross over, irrespective of one-thirds or two-thirds, irrespective of party A or party B, I just have to fight another election.

Also, twelfth, let us have an independent constitutional commission to decide on defections, or change the way the speaker is appointed.

Otherwise, it is a sham. It makes a mockery of our system. And there are much higher consequences, because one man, one vote, free and fair elections and level playing field for elections are all part of the basic structure of the Constitution. One man, one vote becoming two defections, one vote... you are actually affecting the basic structure. You are affecting democracy itself. So it is time to completely overhaul the system.

Singhvi is a four-term sitting MP and one of the country’s leading lawyers. He is former chair of three parliamentary standing committees―commerce, law and home; member of the Congress working committee; former additional solicitor general of India; senior national spokesperson of Congress; chair, Congress department on law, human rights and RTI; author and well-known media face.

As told to Soni Mishra

former-vice-president-of-india-m-venkaiah-naidu-interview

Sat Sep 28 12:40:43 IST 2024

Interview/ M. Venkaiah Naidu, former vice president of India

M. VENKAIAH NAIDU sits relaxed on an off-white wing chair in the drawing room of his Jubilee Hills residence in Hyderabad. He is dressed in a white dhoti and a shirt, over which he is wearing a loose-fitting, dark-coloured sweater. It is nippy in the Telangana capital because of incessant rains. There is a line-up of sketches of Naidu from various stages of his life adorning the walls; he proudly says his granddaughter got them made based on old photographs. The drawings encapsulate the 75-year-old’s political career―from a student leader to the vice president of India.

Naidu told THE WEEK that he always stayed true to his party and that he is aggrieved at the ease and frequency with which legislators now switch sides. He is of the firm view that the anti-defection law needs amendment. A major flaw, he says, is that the law allows large-scale defections.

The veteran leader says the power to decide under the Tenth Schedule must remain with the speaker, but a time frame of three to four months should be fixed.

Excerpts:

Q/ Why do you feel the anti-defection law must be amended?

A/ Politics, once upon a time, used to be based on ideology. There used to be commitment, conviction. But of late, politics has undergone a change. Politicians frequently change parties, with the result that people are losing confidence in the system.

The other day, I said at a public function, jokingly, that like the railway or flight timetable, you have to put a signboard in every town stating which man is in which party on that day.

So the anti-defection law needs to be amended. This is my firm view, having been in politics and in an ideology-based party throughout my life.

Q/ The law was brought in 1985. What are your recollections of that time?

A/ When Rajiv Gandhi brought the legislation, people welcomed it. Up to 1967, politics was stable and had an ideological basis. In 1967, the Congress, the ruling party, lost in majority of the states. And in some states, the governments became unsteady. I remember, in Haryana, there was Gaya Lal who changed parties thrice in one day. The Congress (did it) for its own reasons. Whatever be the motive, we all welcomed it.

Q/ Some say the law was rushed, without enough consultation.

A/ There was some amount of consultation. Some people may feel it was not enough. But law should always be amenable to change depending on the situation.

Q/ What changes do you suggest in the law?

A/ If you are elected on the ticket of a particular party, if you want to change your party, you must resign from your position as MLA or MP. That is the spirit of the anti-defection law.

Now, instead of retail defection, we have wholesale defection. Originally, the law said if one-third members decide to form another party or another group, it was okay. Subsequently, we went to two-thirds. Even that has to be revisited. Two-thirds in the original party or two-thirds in the legislature party? Though, I feel since you got elected on the basis of the symbol and ideology of the party, it should be party.

Q/ In Maharashtra, the Eknath Shinde faction broke away and was recognised as the real Shiv Sena on the basis of the number of MLAs.

A/ The majority of the legislators broke away and claimed they are the original Shiv Sena. They (Shinde faction) got into an alliance with the BJP. Their argument is that elections were fought together by the BJP and the Shiv Sena. They got the majority and the BJP got the majority of the seats within the alliance. But the Shiv Sena wanted to have its chief minister, so they went to the Congress. I think the BJP, to take revenge or teach them a lesson, broke the party and has an alliance (with the Shinde faction).

These are not healthy alliances. Political compulsions are making parties reach such an understanding.

Q/ How do you view the role of the speaker under the Tenth Schedule?

A/ The law gives power to the speaker or the chairman (to decide on complaints made under the Tenth Schedule), and rightly so. After all, it is a matter pertaining to a legislative body. But there should be a time frame. Otherwise, the speaker sits on a particular case for the remainder of the term. Then what is the purpose? Some people say this should be taken away from the speaker and given to the judiciary. In the judiciary also there are cases pending for years. The speaker or the chairman must be mandated to decide within three or four months. And at the end of the day, everything is subject to judicial review.

Q/ Many feel the speaker comes from a political party and cannot be impartial.

A/ I agree that can be an argument. But it is something that happened in the legislature. And he is the presiding officer. But finally a judicial review can always happen. For the judicial review also there must be a time frame.

Q/ The law is allowing large-scale defections because of the two-third norm.

A/ One-third or two-third, individual or group, once you defect you must resign and contest elections. That is the spirit of democracy. But that will have far reaching consequences and there has to be a consensus. Political parties, for their own interest, will not support such a law.

Q/ In recent years, many state governments have fallen because of large-scale defections.

A/ Many more governments have fallen earlier also. I am not confining to this regime or that regime.

Q/ We have seen defections happening in Telangana also, to the Bharat Rashtra Samithi and now from the BRS.

A/ The BRS did it. The Congress is now doing the same thing. Earlier in Andhra, the YSRCP did it. Before that, the Telugu Desam Party. In certain states, the BJP has done the same thing.

Q/ Why do we see so many defections happening?

A/ It is because of affection for power. People want power and they want it easily. You must have patience, ability and stability. But people want quick results. When they don’t get elected, they don’t get power in this party, they switch to another party and enjoy fruits of power.

Q/ What does it tell us about morality in politics?

A/ I joined student politics when I was 16 years old. My uncle took me to a senior Congress leader and told him, ‘My boy wants to join politics’. The leader asked me, ‘Which party?’ I said, ‘I like Vajpayee ji. I like his speeches. So I am inclined towards Jan Sangh.’ He said, ‘Jan Sangh?’ Then he told me, ‘Babu, that’s an Uttara Bharatiya party, an urban party, a Brahmin Baniya party, and a vegetarian party.’ I made my choice and I never changed my party. I used to make announcements sitting in a bullock cart about the arrival of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. I used to write on walls. I got arrested during the Emergency. I was given ticket for Lok Sabha polls in 1977. I could not succeed, though. In 1978 and in 1983, I became an MLA. Later, I became a four-time MP. Also, state president and then national president. I became rural development minister, urban development minister. Initially, it was an ordeal because there was no scope for winning elections. But at the end of the day, I succeeded in becoming a parliamentarian and then a minister and then, vice president of India, the second highest constitutional post.

I tell people, commitment to an ideology is always a good thing.

Q/ The opposition accuses the BJP of engineering defections.

A/ I don’t want to defend the BJP. I am no longer a spokesperson for the BJP. My point is, every political party should go for some soul searching before accusing others. What you have done in the past, let every political party introspect. The Congress is accusing the BJP. The BJP accuses the Congress, saying you are the grandfather of defections. That is not going to solve the problem. The leaders of what was originally the Jan Sangh and the communists used to stick to their ideology. More recently, in Telangana, a CPI(M) leader in the assembly joined the BRS, became a minister. So, it is happening in those parties, too.

Q/ Many say the whip needs to be revisited because it stifles freedom of expression.

A/ When the law was brought in, stalwarts like Madhu Limaye said you cannot restrict the freedom of expression of the individual. Freedom of expression is an important aspect. But once you join a party, it means you are committing to its ideology and you are bound by its rules.

But I am of the view, and even the Supreme Court has opined so, that the whip should be to the extent possible confined to bills that have a bearing on the stability of the government.

Q/ Would you want the present dispensation to take the initiative to amend the anti-defection law?

A/ The ruling party can take the initiative or the opposition can and let the Parliament, in its collective wisdom, decide. The government of the day can bring in a legislation. I always say that in Parliament, let the government propose, let the opposition oppose, let the house dispose. The opposition also can bring in legislation and put it for voting. If the government loses, there is a moral defeat.

Also, parties should promise (in the manifesto) they will bring a legislation to stop defections. They can also promise in their manifestos their legislators will behave in a democratic way in the Parliament. And if they don’t fulfil that promise, people should teach them a lesson. There cannot be a remedial law for everything. It is the people’s collective wisdom that will offer a solution.

merger-exemption-needs-clarity-or-removal

Sat Sep 28 12:39:16 IST 2024

THE 2022 POLITICAL crisis in Maharashtra saw 34 petitions under the anti-defection law filed by members of either faction seeking disqualification of more than 50 MLAs. Rather anticlimactically, no MLA was disqualified by Speaker Rahul Narwekar, who delivered a similar verdict in the NCP split in 2023.

Such occurrences have repeatedly exposed the inability of India’s anti-defection law to curb bulk defections. The law has infamously magnified the problem it was meant to solve, while defecting legislators escape disqualification. How did the law lose the plot so miserably?

The Tenth Schedule is poorly drafted and vulnerable to multiple interpretations. Sample Paragraph 4, which exempts legislators from disqualification if they cross the floor in a group to merge with an existing political party. So, while individual defections get punished, bulk defections can pass muster!

Paragraph 4 has two sub-paragraphs, which may be read either conjunctively or disjunctively. In a conjunctive reading, a merger is valid only when a political party merges with another political party and at least two-thirds of the members of the legislature party agree to this merger. In a disjunctive reading, a valid merger needs only two-thirds of the legislature party to agree to merge with another legislature party. Called a “deemed merger”, this does not require the coming together of the original political parties.

How these two sub-paragraphs are read has a bearing on the law’s performance. A disjunctive reading eases mergers, especially in smaller legislative assemblies such as Goa’s. In 2019, 10 MLAs of a 15-member Congress legislature party in Goa merged with the BJP. Disqualification petitions filed against them were dismissed by the speaker, and subsequently by the Bombay High Court (Goa Bench), both opting for a disjunctive reading and validating the merger of the legislature parties.

Simultaneously, conjunctive readings also exist. In the late 1990s, in petitions filed against Haryana MLAs Charan Dass Shorewala and Vinod Kumar Mariya for defecting from the Samata Party, speaker Chattar Singh Chauhan held that Paragraph 4 “...does not speak of split or merger in the Legislature Party but... in the original political party”, signalling a conjunctive reading.

Until 2003, the Tenth Schedule also exempted “splits” in political parties―a faction needed to first demonstrate a split in their original party, and then, one-third members of the legislature party had to agree to the split. In 2007, the Supreme Court held the two steps absolutely necessary for a valid split and overruled the argument that a split in the original party need not be separately established if one in the legislature party is shown. A similar conclusive observation for a valid merger remains elusive.

Meanwhile, disjunctive readings continue. For example, in 2021, petitions against 12 Congress MLAs in Meghalaya for joining the Trinamool Congress did not result in disqualification because they were two-thirds of the 17-member Congress legislature party.

Therefore, the merger exemption needs either conclusive interpretation or complete removal.

Also, speakers must be replaced by an impartial authority to decide disqualification petitions.

However, while solutions abound, the political appetite to see these reforms through is still awaited.

Sharma is a senior resident fellow at the Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy and leads Charkha, Vidhi’s dedicated constitutional law team.

former-union-minister-p-chidambaram-interview-anti-defection-law

Sat Sep 28 12:38:08 IST 2024

Interview / P. Chidambaram, former Union minister

P. CHIDAMBARAM WAS A first-time MP when the anti-defection law was passed in Parliament in 1985. He walked up to A.K. Sen, the law minister, and suggested that he should carefully consider the provisions being made in the Tenth Schedule. Sen’s reply, said Chidambaram, was that it could be amended later.

Forty years later, the Congress in its manifesto for the Lok Sabha elections promised to amend the law. Chidambaram, the chief architect of the manifesto and one of the brightest legal minds in India, insists that an amendment should make defection a ground for automatic disqualification and ban the member from contesting an election during the term of the house. Excerpts from an interview:

Q/ A Congress government enacted the anti-defection law in 1985. Before the Lok Sabha elections this year, the Congress, in its manifesto, said the law must be amended. Why do you feel the law needs to be amended?

A/ I remember the year in which the Tenth Schedule was passed in Parliament. A.K. Sen, who was the law minister, had moved the bill. I was a first-term member of Parliament, and I walked up to him and said, ‘Sir, I think you should carefully consider the provisions you are making in the Tenth Schedule’. He said, ‘Let’s pass it, and then we can always amend it’.

The original Tenth Schedule had a provision for split and merger. The provision for split was omitted by an amendment, but the provision for merger remains. And that has been open to abuse. The provision for merger encourages one or more members who are elected on a party ticket to defect from the party and then put forward various arguments. The provision for merger, on many occasions, effectively becomes a split in the legislature party. The matter then goes to the speaker, who sits on the complaint for months, in some cases, years. He hands down a decision towards the end of the term of the member, and in many cases, after the term of the member is over.

It has spawned litigation in every high court. Some high courts have taken the view that is plainly wrong in view of the subsequent judgment of the Supreme Court. They have taken the view that even if there is no split in the parent political party, there can be a split in the legislature party, and one section or one faction can claim to be either an independent party or merge with another party. That is why we put it in the manifesto; all this is completely open to abuse.

Q/ What is the solution?

A/ The simple provision should be that if you defect, which is if you join another party, if you resign from your party, if you vote against your party’s whip, the party being the party on whose ticket you were elected, instantaneously you are disqualified, and you cannot contest an election for the remainder of that term. It is written in the manifesto that we promise to amend the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution and make defection a ground for automatic disqualification of the membership in the assembly or Parliament. In one section, the entire law of defection can be reformed and it can become an effective deterrent to defection.

Q/ How are you going to go about it? You are not in power.

A/ The party in power believes in Operation Lotus. The party in power encourages defections; it encourages splits in parties. Therefore, this party in power will never agree to our amendment. The manifesto promises if we come to power, we will pass this law. And I have no doubt that if the Congress had formed the government, either on its own or in alliance, we could have persuaded the council of ministers or the cabinet to pass such a law. This is a very simple, elegant solution to defection. The Tenth Schedule was added in 1985. Now, this is the 40th year, and yet defection has not been effectively suppressed by the Tenth Schedule. My proposal will effectively suppress any defection.

Q/ Do you feel that there are problems with the law, or is it that the political class has found a way around it?

A/ Problem with the law, number one. Number two, problem with the abuse of the law. Three, problem with the speakers’ action and inaction. Four, problem with the interpretation of the provisions by various high courts.

Q/ Proposals have been made that speakers’ role can be looked at and an alternative mechanism can be set up to decide on disqualification petitions.

A/ There is no need for that. In the case of resignation, although the speaker has to satisfy himself on whether the signature of the MLA or the MP is genuine, the resignation must be accepted. Similarly, in the case of defection, all that the complainant has to say and the speaker has to be satisfied with is whether he has resigned from the party, whether he has voted against the party’s whip, whether he has joined another party. So these are incontrovertible facts; so there is no great enquiry required. The examination of these three facts can be completed in half an hour.

Q/ You feel that the law in its present form has actually helped wholesale defections.

A/ Obviously. The fact that despite 40 years of the Tenth Schedule, there have been hundreds of defections proves that the law has been ineffective.

Q/ Can any law deal with issues of political morality?

A/ Here, we are not talking about political morality. If you are very unhappy with your party, resign and contest an election. If you resign and contest an election, there is no bar. You can’t rely upon the strength of your previous election and defect and betray your party. You can always resign and contest an election. The moment you resign, there will be a vacancy, there will be a by-election, contest it. We are not deciding the morality of that legislator. We are discussing the morality of his keeping the victory that was won on the strength of his earlier party, but acting against the interests of the original party.

Q/ Allegations have been made against the Congress that it, too, has encouraged defections.

A/ I am not discussing whether one party’s record is good or another party’s record is bad. All I am pointing out is that under the Tenth Schedule, as it stood and as it stands, it has proved to be a complete failure.

Q/ No party has got a clear majority in the Lok Sabha elections. Do you fear that defections could begin again?

A/ I don’t think so because the BJP has two allies who bring 28 seats to the alliance, and with some smaller allies, they cross 272. If one of the two allies were to withdraw support, then I think the game of defections may start. But as long as both the allies stand by the BJP, there is no compelling reason why they should encourage defection. But that does not mean that the BJP will not encourage defections. It is in the BJP’s DNA to encourage defections.

political-bias-should-be-kept-out-of-anti-defection-law

Sat Sep 28 12:36:56 IST 2024

THE 52ND AMENDMENT to the Constitution was made in 1985 to incorporate the Tenth Schedule, commonly known as the ‘anti-defection law’. The Statement of Objects and Reasons for the Amendment is rather lengthy, but the substance is in the introductory paragraph, which reads:

“The evil of political defections has been a matter of national concern. If it is not combated, it is likely to undermine the very foundations of our democracy and the principles which sustain it. With this object, an assurance was given in the Address by the President to Parliament that the Government intended to introduce in the current session of Parliament an anti-defection Bill. This Bill is meant for outlawing defection and fulfilling the above assurance.”

While the intention of the amendment was to curb the ‘Aya Ram Gaya Ram’ syndrome prevalent at the time, the speaker of the house had a key role in his capacity as the implementing authority. The first case under this law before the Supreme Court was that of Kihoto Hollohan v. Zachillhu (1985) which dealt with a complaint (among other issues) of disqualification on the ground of defection of some members of the Nagaland Legislative Assembly. On the role of the speaker, the court held that the speaker performs a judicial function while deciding on a complaint under the anti-defection law and therefore the decision is judicially reviewable, but only to a limited extent and not on the merits of the decision. Equally importantly, the Supreme Court held that the office of the speaker in a parliamentary democracy has a high status and importance and performs wide-ranging functions, including of a judicial character. “The speaker is said to be the very embodiment of propriety and impartiality.” Therefore, the court rejected the contention that vesting an adjudicatory function in the speaker would vitiate the provision on the ground of likelihood of political bias.

Fast forward to 2011. In the Haryana Vidhan Sabha, disqualification petitions were filed under the anti-defection law against five legislators. For some reason, they were not heard by the speaker, and the petitioners moved the High Court for a direction to the speaker to decide the petitions. The High Court gave four months to the speaker to make a decision and also ‘disqualified’ the concerned legislators from functioning as legislators in the assembly. These directions were challenged by the speaker in the Supreme Court, which held that while the direction to decide the petitions within a specified timeframe was valid, the direction ‘disqualifying’ the legislators was invalid.

A somewhat similar situation arose in Manipur. The Legislative Assembly was constituted in March 2017 and soon after, the speaker received several disqualification petitions under the anti-defection law, one of which pertained to a cabinet minister. Unfortunately, the speaker took no action on these petitions. After examining the law on the subject and whether the speaker could refrain from exercising jurisdiction vested in him, the court held in Keisham Meghachandra Singh v. Speaker, Manipur Legislative Assembly (2021) that the only relief that could be granted is a direction to the speaker to decide on the disqualification petitions within four weeks, perhaps keeping in mind that the disqualification petitions had been pending for almost four years with the speaker.

Not unsurprisingly, the speaker did not act within the deadline. Instead, an application was moved seeking another eight weeks to decide on the disqualification petitions. But that application was withdrawn. This attitude led the Supreme Court to restrain the minister “from entering the Legislative Assembly till further orders of this Court. Needless to add, he will cease to be a Minister of the Cabinet immediately.” The message was loud and clear that a perception of political bias was not acceptable.

In Subhash Desai v. Principal Secretary, Governor of Maharashtra (2023), the Supreme Court directed the speaker of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly in May to decide on the disqualification petitions pending before him “within a reasonable period”. No decision was taken till September. Then the court gave a peremptory date of 31 December to make a decision. The court then gave two more extensions and, eventually, the speaker decided on the petitions on February 15, 2024. Political bias?

The Supreme Court has observed that the time has come to have a rethink on the matter and perhaps entrust the decision-making to a permanent tribunal headed by a retired Supreme Court judge or a retired Chief Justice of a High Court or some other independent mechanism so that such disputes are adjudicated swiftly and impartially. The Law Commission of India has also recommended some changes. These suggestions need a serious discussion so that a possible political bias is kept out of the anti-defection law, otherwise the Tenth Schedule will die a natural death.

Madan Lokur is a former Supreme Court judge and Raagini Raghu is a Delhi-based lawyer.

former-chief-election-commissioner-o-p-rawat-interview

Sat Sep 28 12:36:03 IST 2024

Interview / O.P. Rawat, former chief election commissioner

Q/ There has been criticism of the Election Commission’s role in granting the Shiv Sena symbol and party name to the Eknath Shinde faction.

A/ When the EC has information to believe there has been a split in a political party, it starts proceedings under Paragraph 15 of the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968. The first such case was of the Congress in 1969 when it split over the presidential election―one group fielded V.V. Giri and the other backed [Neelam] Sanjeeva Reddy. The matter came to the EC. It applied four tests―organisational strength, legislative strength, compliance to the party’s constitution and inner party democracy. Based on that, the EC took a decision that Congress(J) was the real Congress. Congress(O)’s Sadiq Ali went to the Supreme Court challenging the decision, and the court upheld the decision, which was solely based on legislative strength.

As regards organisational strength, there were claims and counter claims, and many people on one side, many on the other. It was humanly impossible to manage any opinion on that. Similarly, claims and counterclaims on compliance to the constitution. So all those tests failed, and the EC based its order on legislative strength. The same tests were applied in the Eknath Shinde case, and there again, the same thing was observed, that on all other tests, there were claims and counterclaims, and without going into a detailed inquiry, no definite opinion was possible. So the test of legislative strength was applied. And legislative strength was on Shinde’s side.

Q/ The counter argument is that the party is the organisation and it can exist even without legislators.

A/ In fact, the party can still exist without the symbol. Symbol is required for elections, and election throws up the legislators, and therefore the direct connection is with the legislative strength. Legislative strength is definite because numbers do not need any kind of corroboration or evidence. The number of MLAs or MPs is a clear ground. So, for a summary inquiry to be completed in 15 days or one month, this is the only way.

Like in one case from Tamil Nadu, we found that three truckloads of affidavits had come to the EC. The EC said this cannot be sifted through in one year because we have a staff strength of just about 300. You cannot form a definite opinion on organisational strength easily without any detailed inquiry.

Q/ Is there a need to change Paragraph 15 to bring in more safeguards regarding how factions are recognised?

A/ I don’t think there is any need. Anything which needs to be done in a day or two or two weeks, if you bring in more rules and regulations, you will create space for political skulduggery and manipulation. It is simply a summary inquiry based on the material submitted by the warring factions. If more things are added to Paragraph 15, it will result in cross-examining and all those procedures which will be dilatory. So far, whatever decision has been taken, whether it was the AIADMK case or Samajwadi Party or the JD(U) case, the Supreme Court has upheld the decision of the EC.

Q/ Suggestions have been made that the speaker should not be the deciding authority in the Tenth Schedule and the decision should be taken by either the president or the governor acting on the advice of the EC.

A/ The Supreme Court has said that no executive authority should have the jurisdiction of getting into the political process. The speaker’s role being given to the governor or president or any other executive institution will vitiate the political process. He or she is appointed by someone else, so that person sitting remotely can control the political process of a state legislature. We will be destroying the democratic fabric. We must believe in our politicians and leave the whole political process to them.

The EC is set up only for conducting elections and maintaining electoral rolls. They should not be tasked with anything else. If you bring the EC into the anti-defection law, it will be terrible.

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Sat Sep 28 12:34:45 IST 2024

Interview/ Subhash C. Kashyap, former secretary general, Lok Sabha

A highly respected constitutional expert, the 95-year-old Kashyap’s two-volume book Anti-Defection Law and Parliamentary Privileges is insightful and incisive. He told THE WEEK that the law has been ineffective in stopping large-scale defections and suggests that the speaker should not be the deciding authority under the Tenth Schedule. Excerpts:

Q/ What was the backdrop for the enactment of the anti-defection law?

A/ The contours of politics in India underwent a radical change post 1967. The age of one-party dominance was over. The most important development was the formation of coalition governments of widely heterogeneous elements in several states and the change of their political labels by legislators in large numbers, thereby affecting the fate of ministries and course of political power. Of the 16 states that went to the polls in February 1967, the Congress lost absolute majority in eight and failed to form its government in seven of them. Even in states where the party retained control, its strength was much depleted and in the case of some of these states, defection by a few members could ruin its majority and turn it into a minority party.

Significantly, almost every single case of collapse of state government during this period was the direct result of change of allegiance by legislators. Empirical data shows that by the end of March 1971, some 50 per cent (2,000) of all legislators (4,000) had defected from their parties at least once. One legislator defected five times to become a minister for a few days! With an average of more than one legislator changing his label each day and for some time about one government falling each month, it is not surprising that the subject came to be discussed rather widely.

Q/ As the anti-defection law completes 40 years, the general opinion is that it has failed in its aims and objectives.

A/ The Constitution (52nd Amendment) Act, 1985, sought to outlaw defections. Besides questions raised about its constitutionality and advisability in a parliamentary democratic setup, the anti-defection law has not been able to prevent the malady even though it was amended by Constitution (91st Amendment) Act, 2003, which provided to place a limit on the number of ministers, so that they could not be more than 15 per cent of the number of members in the Lok Sabha and legislative assemblies. For the state level, however, a proviso was added stating that the number of ministers in a state shall not be less than 12 to take away the protection from defectors on grounds of splits, and to make defectors ineligible for being appointed as ministers or on any remunerative public office until re-election.

Q/ In focus is the role of the speaker. Should there be an alternative mechanism to decide on disqualification petitions?

A/ I have always been of the view that the office of the speaker or the presiding officer should not be involved in deciding cases of defection of legislators and these should be referred to the Election Commission or the judiciary.

A view expressed on the law is that it has been ineffective against large-scale defections which result in governments falling and political instability.

That the anti-defection law has been ineffective in solving the problem of large-scale defections by the legislators for money or office is evident. There have been more defections per year in the post anti-defection law period than in the period before its enactment. Also, more governments have fallen after the anti-defection law.

Q/ There is a view that the law has been ineffective against wholesale defections, which result in governments falling and political instability.

A/ That anti-defection law has been ineffective in solving the problem of large scale defections by the legislators for money or office is evident. There have been more defections per year in the post anti-defection law period then in the period before enactment of the anti-defection law in the Tenth Schedule of the Constitution. Also, more governments have fallen after the anti-defection law.

Q/ An argument made against the Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar defections in Maharashtra is that while a split took place, no merger happened. But the factions got the party symbol and name while their disqualification petitions were pending. Your views.

A/ It may be pointed out that by the 91st Amendment to the Constitution, split has ceased to be relevant in case of defections. The question of disqualification of members and merger of parties as a defence has to be decided by the speaker. The recognition of political parties and allocation of symbols has to be decided by the EC, which was done. It would have been better if the question of disqualification of members had been not kept pending and decided by the speaker earlier. The unfortunate position would not be a [problem] if disqualification was also referred to the EC.

Q/ Can the issue of political morality be solved by law?

A/ Even though the role of constitutional and legislative media cannot be completely ruled out as preventive, illustrative and deterrent, measures of political culture and questions of systemic morality and character of people cannot be tackled by law alone.

Q/ Your suggestions on how to make the law work or any alternative mechanism that needs to be put in place.

A/ Defections take place for toppling governments and in a situation of instability, I have been suggesting the election of the chief minister/prime minister by the House and removal by constructive votes of no-confidence, which would mean that the motion which expresses no confidence in the ministry also mentions the name of alternative leader to head the government.

gelephu-mindfulness-city-bhutan-proposes-an-economic-gateway-for-the-world-to-india-and-southeast-asia

Sat Sep 21 12:18:37 IST 2024

Robin Datgiri, 51, lives in the last house on the border in Assam’s Hatisar village, which lies next to the town of Gelephu in Bhutan. As a child, he would cross the border daily to attend school in Gelephu, where he not only received an education, but also discounted meals (Rs3 for Indians)―an opportunity that shaped his childhood. Proximity to Gelephu has been a gateway to a better life for the people of Hatisar, providing access to resources and opportunities that were otherwise scarce in their small village.

“We step into Gelephu for our daily needs even today as it is less than a kilometre away compared with the nearest Indian town, Bongaigaon, which is 60 kilometres away,” said Datgiri, who runs a pharmacy. “There is no general practitioner in Hatisar. Local doctors in Gelephu are our first call for any emergency.”

Gelephu, a town strategically situated on the Assam border, offers convenient access to other districts within Bhutan as well. It has long been a passage between Bhutan and India, serving as an important trading post and transit point for monks and traders moving between the Indian plains and Bhutanese highlands. Its long-standing role as a lifeline and strategic location on the fertile plains, in contrast to the mountainous terrain that dominates much of the Himalayan kingdom, has given shape to a new dream for King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, who is developing the Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) as the first of its kind special administrative region (SAR) in Bhutan based on a “two systems, one country” policy.

“It is designed for Bhutan. But it is not just for Bhutan. It is going to benefit Assam and all of India,” said Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay. “We see it as an economic gateway for the world to India and through India to southeast Asia.”

This transformation aims to turn Gelephu into an economic and a strategic corridor bringing India and Bhutan closer, without disturbing Thimphu’s comfortable relationship with its other neighbour, China. After 60 years of development, Bhutan still depends on the goodwill of donors. The jewel in the Himalayas is also going through the biggest existential crisis in history with its youth moving out in search of better opportunities. It is estimated that nearly 40,000 people from its seven lakh population have left in the last few years.

But Bhutan has an optimistic approach to tackling its problems. “Disappointment is an integral part of human nature. But it is this disappointment, which is different from cynicism, that promotes progress and injects new thinking in a society,” said Lyonpo Sonam Tobgye, former chief justice of the supreme court of Bhutan.

The visionary monarchs are looking into the future once again―just like they did while making a successful transition to democracy. Dasho Kungzang Wangdi, the first chief election commissioner of Bhutan, said that before the first national assembly elections were held in 2008, many wanted to continue with the existing system because they were happy with the monarchy. “I think whenever you talk of monarchy [outside Bhutan], you think of it as dictatorship or autocracy where things are not too good.” Wangdi said the Bhutanese saw it in a unique way. Their kings are more democratic in nature and the well being of people is their priority, he said.

This time, the effort is to keep up with the demographic advantages and the rapid economic growth of its neighbours―India and China. The policy of neutrality has kept the kingdom strong and stable, but Jigme realises that the time has come for Bhutan to take the next step forward, alongside China and India, which are expected to become the world’s largest and third largest economies, respectively, as per their own estimates. This means that the global economic centre of gravity will shift towards this region, creating tremendous opportunities for business and wealth creation.

Historically, Gelephu has enjoyed a higher level of development compared with many other Bhutanese towns. During the 1970s and 1980s, it served as a thriving hub for industries and trade. Gelephu produced and exported a diverse range of goods, including candles, matchsticks, soaps, honey, incense, timber and other natural products. Furthermore, the town significantly benefited from Bhutan’s flourishing tourism industry, attracting a substantial number of visitors from Assam. The outreach will only get bigger with the GMC being centred around Gelephu and built over 2,600 square kilometres, giving the landlocked country access to global markets. And India is once again playing a pivotal role in the creation of the GMC.

Interestingly, Gelephu has a nostalgic connection with India as well. It is one of the three frontier towns of Bhutan which had Indian names till 1959. Gelephu was originally called Hatisar, while the other two were called Jaigaon Bhutan and Gudama or Mela bazaar. Old timers recall that one day, Bhutan’s third king Jigme Dorji Wangchuck summoned Lopen Nyapchhi, the storekeeper of the palace, to know why some of the Indian letters were delivered in Bhutan and some Bhutanese ones went to India. Lopen said it was because the three border towns did not have Bhutanese names. So the king, who was about to leave on a trekking expedition, asked him to choose new names. He asked Lopen to broadcast the names on the radio and said that he was carrying his radio set with him and would check whether Lopen obeyed his order.

As soon as the king left, Lopen rushed to the only wireless station in Thimphu to ask help from Mr Chawna, an Indian who had set up the station. Chawna was fondly called “wireless babu” by the local people. He told Lopen that the announcement would not be effective unless something was done to attract the attention of the listeners. So he played songs and jokes and then made the announcement about the new names―Phuentsholing, Gelephu and Samdrup-jongkhar―every day for an hour between 8am and 9am for two weeks. Even the king was impressed.

Hatisar is now in India and Gelephu in Bhutan, but the sharing of songs, cultures, families and friends continues. The familial connections are so robust that the GMC elicits an immediate, positive response from the children of Bhutanese who are married to Indians and residing in India. Sujit Chhetri, the head of Hatisar village, was born to an Assamese father and a Bhutanese mother. Both his sisters are married in Gelephu. “We are excited about the GMC project as it will bring development to both India and Bhutan. Already, land prices are going up. When businessmen from outside come and set up industries and shops, the economy on the border will grow,” said Chhetri. “There was no border in the past, hence the population is a mix of Indians and Bhutanese. ”

Like Datgiri, Chhetri, too, did his schooling in Gelephu, enjoying his daily lunch of dal and fish served to students. “From the early 1970s to the late 1980s, it is understood that there were no [border] gates, with the exception of a pull-down barrier utilised by the forestry and trade departments,” said Dawa Penjor, general secretary of the Bhutan-India friendship association.

But today, movement across the border is restricted as check posts have come up. Border forces in Assam ensure that illegal movements and activities do not scar the friendship. Securing the borders of the tiny kingdom has long been a concern for Bhutanese and Indian governments, which share a history of crackdown on transnational linkages of northeast Indian insurgent groups taking shelter across the border. Bhutan’s first military operation in 140 years was against armed insurgents of ULFA and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland in 2003. In the misty clouds of the Dochula Pass, Bhutan’s highest mountain pass, stand 108 memorial stupas, erected in the memory of the brave Bhutanese soldiers who sacrificed their lives.

“Over the past few years, all the militant groups active along the India-Bhutan border have joined the mainstream,” said G.P. Singh, director general of the Assam Police. He said the emphasis was on creating an economic and social environment in Assam that ensured the youth did not get attracted towards militancy. “We have been able to achieve this satisfactorily during the last few years precluding the likelihood of safe haven in Bhutan,” said Singh. The impact is visible. The guns have fallen silent since, showing the success of active cooperation between the governments and security agencies on either side.

The state visit of King Jigme to Guwahati in November 2023, the first official visit by a Bhutanese monarch to Assam, demonstrated that the time was ripe to reap the dividends of peace. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma will be visiting Bhutan next month, bringing further excitement to the plans of building the first India-Bhutan rail link connecting Kokrajhar and Gelephu, where Bhutan also plans to build an international airport. Bhutan’s approach to its neighbourhood has shifted from self preservation and isolation to embracing openness, balancing its economic needs with growing opportunities. The sustainable development fees charged for foreign tourists might surprise most Indians, but Bhutan realises that protecting its pristine landscape is as important as attracting investment and tourists. “This is where friendship plays a big role. Those who understand that the bond runs deep will not see it from the prism of reciprocity or equality [with India],” said Penjor. He lives in Gelephu, barely a kilometre from the border and finds himself in Assam almost every day.

While India enjoys close geographic proximity with Bhutan, China, too, remains a key neighbour. But the Himalayan divide creates a kind of distance between Bhutan and China. Bhutan understands the importance of balancing relations with the two big neighbours.

Penjor said the GMC project, too, aligned with the future of this trilateral partnership. “I don’t think China has any reservations to the GMC project or any collaboration with India. China wants a prosperous neighbour who can look after itself. Lack of good governance or development impacts the stability of the region, which India and China do not want,” he said. Proximity has made the neighbours more pragmatic over the years. Penjor pointed towards Sino-Indian trade ties to argue that the neighbourhood should not worry about the Bhutan-China relationship. “China is India’s largest trading partner. Other than occasional border issues, both countries continue economic activities. Ninety per cent of Bhutan’s imports are from India. This itself explains that India is a key partner for both. So it is wrong to say that the Bhutan-China equation can disturb trilateral balance,” he said.

Understanding the Bhutanese perspective is key for India to resolve border differences with China as there are two important tri-junction points―one in the west involving Doklam and the other in the east of the McMohan line which delineates the Sino-Indian border in this region. In 2017, Doklam was the site of a tiff between India and China as India believes that Doklam is part of Bhutanese territory and any part of this territory cannot be ceded to China as it overlooks the critical Siliguri corridor that links the northeast to the rest of India. There is a clear understanding in Bhutan that any resolution coming through in its border talks with China will primarily have India’s interests in mind, which is why the issue has dragged on for long. “It pains the Bhutanese to see the Indian media question Bhutan’s friendship with India by insinuating that Bhutan and China are coming closer,” said Penjor.

For India to be a big brother without a big brother attitude would certainly entail honouring the 1949 peace and friendship treaty, by not interfering in Bhutan’s internal administration, and also close cooperation on issues of national security without interfering in foreign policy based on the 2007 friendship treaty. This also explains why the GMC will not have an inclusion or exclusion criteria when it opens up its doors for investments from countries, companies and individuals, with or without diplomatic relations with Bhutan. “It all boils down to business ideas and investments that align with the vision of the GMC. It will be invitation based, and investors must follow the GMC guidelines. As long as the standards are met, why should there be exclusion criteria?,” asked Dr Lotay Tshering, former prime minister of Bhutan, who is part of the implementation team of the GMC.

The Gelephu SAR will be governed by the GMC Authority, which will include international domain and investment experts, according to the blueprint prepared by the Bhutan government. Since the monarchy is the most trusted institution in Bhutan, the SAR will be established through the royal prerogative of the king and the promulgation of a royal charter. After the announcement of the GMC on the national day (December 17) in 2023, work has already begun to enact major changes in the country’s governance structure to create a different executive and judicial system that will be autonomous from the rest of the country.

What makes the Bhutan model unique is that the autonomous region will be run by international domain experts, who may belong to different nationalities, but will share a common vision to develop GMC mindfully to make it the “silicon valley of the east”, where spiritual values and nature will form the bedrock of technological progress and development of a greenfield global city. Sources said Bhutan was studying the Singapore model among others to learn world-class business efficiencies. “The idea is to blend modern day development, technology, artificial intelligence and urban living with spirituality, nature and meditation to bring a balance that you will not find in developed cities around the world,” said Penjor.

The GMC will develop its own legal system, which is likely to be based on the English common law system and OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) standards. “Newer parameters of legal knowledge are unfolding today which require us to be responsive to the changing times and aspirations of people,” said Justice Tobgye. He did not discount the fact that the judiciary, like any other institution, could face challenges, but expressed hope that it should be able to rise to the occasion.

The administration of the GMC will also feature a new model that promotes speed, efficiency and transparency. A new cadre may be created for officials who will serve only within the GMC to ensure flexibility. While a culture of experimentation, development and innovation will be encouraged, Bhutan is mindful of rule of law. It has been seen that, globally, economic hubs run the risk of becoming safe havens for money laundering or tax evasion. Senior government officials said the safety of investment and rule of law would be a priority area. “It will not be a place for random businesses and questionable practices. All investors must understand and honour the vision of the GMC before committing to start a business here,” said Lotay Tshering. The SAR will have a separate central bank that can develop its own monetary policy and even issue its own currency, something that is being discussed within closed doors at the moment.

The GMC will focus on key sectors of tourism, health and wellness, education and research, spirituality, agri tech, forestry and green energy. The GMC timeline is 21 years, but the expansion of infrastructure would be an ongoing process as Bhutan would work for a holistic, mindful city ecosystem that could increase the gross national happiness quotient of its people and also the global community. Dasho Karma Ura, who leads Bhutan’s happiness surveys, highlighted the country’s unique stance: “Small nations like Bhutan, without the power or economic strength to engage in arms races, must rely on neutrality. This neutrality and territorial integrity deserve respect.”

Bhutan may be a late participant in the global race of development and modernisation, but it is getting ready to create something unique. Bhutan’s kings, who introduced democracy when its people and the world least expected it, have set a precedent for thoughtful governance. Now, with the development of the GMC, Bhutan could once again serve as a global example of urban progress rooted in peace and well-being. Its commitment to neutrality is a powerful lesson that there is more than one path to success and even the smallest nations can act as beacons of hope and peace in a world overshadowed by conflict.

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Sat Sep 21 12:17:20 IST 2024

Interview/ Tshering Tobgay, prime minister of Bhutan

Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay considers India a benevolent elder sibling as the “big brotherly attitude’’ is happily missing from bilateral ties. He thinks the relationship shared by the two countries has become a model of friendship not just for the region, but for the entire world. “India’s attitude is definitely not of a big brother who is controlling and does not allow the little brother to blossom and grow,” says Tobgay in an exclusive interview with THE WEEK.

The continuity of the strong historical, cultural and spiritual ties is on the threshold of transforming itself into a unique, modern-era global partnership with the development of the Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) project on the border with Assam. “The GMC is the vision of the king and it will be a gateway of the world to India and through India to southeast Asia, benefiting the entire region’s development,” he says.

Tobgay, a cycling and fitness enthusiast, leads a carbon negative country where 70 per cent of the land is covered by forests. He is conscious about balancing development with the core values of the Himalayan kingdom. The GMC, he says, will be developed mindfully to make it what is being referred to by the Bhutanese people as the “silicon valley of the east”, where spiritual values and nature will form the bedrock of technological progress and development. Excerpts from the interview:

Q/ How would you describe bilateral ties between India and Bhutan? What are the key challenges facing the partnership?

A/ I wouldn’t call it bilateral ties. This is a long and deep friendship with India that began thousands of years ago, from the time the Buddha was born, imparted his teachings and gained enlightenment. We received teachings through India. Many of the foremost teachers in Bhutan came from India those days, and many of our foremost teachers went to India to study. We share strong historical and cultural ties with India. After India’s independence, we enjoyed friendship and it has been growing over the years. In Bhutan’s case, the principal drivers of this friendship have been our kings. They have placed our friendship with India as a cornerstone of our policy. And with each successive enlightened monarch, we have enjoyed a deeper and more meaningful friendship with India. Today, our friendship with India is a role model of friendship, not just in the region, but also a leading example of neighbourly friendship in the world.

Like any friendship and family, every now and then, there will be small issues, but nothing that cannot be resolved. Because when we know that we are genuine friends, enjoy the trust and confidence of each other, have a proven track record of friendship and when the future looks very good, we don’t have any major challenges.

Q/ Which are the priority sectors of bilateral cooperation under the 13th five-year plan?

A/ The 13th five-year plan was rolled out in July and a large part of the plan has been possible because of the goodwill, friendship and financial assistance of the government and the people of India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced an assistance package of Rs8,500 crore for the plan and this is going to benefit a wide range of areas like infrastructure, health care, schools, education and communication. But our economy is small. Even though it is sustainable, it is small and we still have not fully recovered from the impact of the pandemic, and, therefore, we need to stimulate it. Again, Prime Minister Modi and the government of India have been very kind in offering an economic stimulus of Rs1,500 crore. This is an immediate assistance package which has already started arriving to stimulate our economy. So these are the two major areas where we are receiving a lot of support from India. We have a lot to do together. A key area of partnership is the hydropower sector which has been the cornerstone of our cooperation. We also see accelerated partnership and cooperation in other areas like cultural ties. There are a lot of exchanges on the cultural front and scholarships for training in higher education.

The GMC is being developed by the king as a special administrative region along our border with India. Here, too, Prime Minister Modi and the Indian government are rendering the fullest support, cooperation and assistance to develop it not just for Bhutan’s future, but for the future of the region. Beyond all these, my principal focus is going to be people-to-people exchanges because nurturing this friendship is very important for Bhutan and for India.

Q/ This year began with the visit of the Indian foreign secretary to Bhutan after you formed the government in January. Incumbent foreign secretary Vikram Misri’s first foreign visit was to Bhutan in July. Can you share some details about the key areas of focus?

A/ During the January visit of foreign secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra, we discussed the 13th five-year plan and the economic stimulus programme, hydropower exchanges and support for the GMC. Then we met him again in Delhi during my first official visit to India and then again during Prime Minister Modi’s swearing in ceremony. Foreign secretary Vikram Misri took charge on July 15, and he came here three days later, and we continued the discussions which have been very fruitful. India and Bhutan have had exchanges at the highest levels, whether it is the king visiting India or the president of India or Prime Minister Modi visiting Bhutan. I have had the good fortune of visiting India thrice. These exchanges and visits get a lot of work done. Ultimately, it is meant to nurture our friendship and to talk of the future.

The king has announced that the GMC would be an international city, an economic corridor connecting south Asia with southeast Asia through India’s northeast. This is a special administrative region that is going to have independence in terms of government, law-making and judiciary. This is the first of its kind special administrative region in the world. The others are economic zones. The special administrative regions that have existed so far are legacies of colonialism. Ours is deliberate and different and it is going to be useful for Bhutan. It is designed for Bhutan, for our future. Many of our youth are going to get jobs in the mindfulness city. This is going to carry forward the ideals and values of gross national happiness that we cherish. It is going to contribute exceedingly to the economic growth of the entire country. But it is not just for Bhutan. It is also going to benefit Assam, and all of India. We see it as an economic gateway for the world to India and through India to southeast Asia.

Q/ How are you addressing environmental concerns while developing a world class city?

A/ Bhutan is a carbon negative country. We sequester many times more carbon than we emit. And one of the reasons is that we have more than 70 per cent of our country under forest cover. And in the GMC, which is 2,600 square kilometres, we have two of our old forests there. They have biodiversity hotspots, but they are also able to sequester huge amounts of carbon. Therefore, the entire city area, through mindfulness, will not just be sustainable, but is going to be carbon negative.

Q/ When we talk of people-to-people contact, do the Bhutanese people look at India as a big brother with an overbearing attitude sometimes?

A/ Well, yes and no. I see India as a big brother. India is a huge country with 140 crore people and a huge economy. We are only seven lakh people so there’s no denying that geographically, economically and demographically, India is far, far bigger than Bhutan. And because we are like a family, India is a big brother. So in that context, it is true.

But I would also say no, because you asked whether India has a big brother attitude. My answer to that is no because India’s attitude is not of a big brother who is controlling and does not allow the little brother to blossom and grow. India is an elder brother who has helped us and continues to help us.

Q/ You have interacted closely with Prime Minister Modi. What are your impressions of the prime minister?

A/ I consider him my big brother, my elder brother. I have always thought of him as my friend, my mentor, but most important, my elder brother. He is very kind and the reason I consider him a mentor is because he is one of the world’s greatest leaders. He is the leader of 1.4 billion Indians, taking them forward. And it is not just 1.4 billion people and not just India, but also the neighbourhood. And when I say neighbourhood, I am not just talking of Bhutan, but the entire Global South and beyond it. The reason is simple. Prime Minister Modi is trying to get order into the world. Therefore, he is a global leader, one that the world has not seen too many of, so I admire him. I am a fan.

Q/ It was Bhutan that coined the term gross national happiness. How do you assess your country’s happiness quotient at the moment?

A/ His majesty the fourth king coined the word ‘gross national happiness’ and it has done very well. The term emphasises the happiness and the well being of our people. It tries to balance economic growth, which is essential, with sustainability, social progress, cultural preservation, environmental protection and good governance. The technical part is that it is measured. There are nine domains of gross national happiness―health, education, living standards, ecological diversity and resilience, good governance, psychological well-being, time use, community vitality and cultural diversity. These are the conditions not just for happiness, but gross national happiness and we measure how we are performing across four pillars, nine domains and 33 indicators. We have been doing this every five years and the trend is encouraging. It shows that in terms of gross national happiness, we are improving year on year. We are also improving in terms of subjective happiness.

Q/ You have said that security is important to become happy. How happy are you about Bhutan’s security?

A/ Security is important at two levels. For individual happiness or subjective happiness, the foundation has to be security. If you don’t have security, you would be living a life of anxiety and uncertainty. So you have got to have security, whether it’s personal security, security of family, home, job, good health and so on. You have to enjoy security to be happy.

National security is important as well and in that context, I agree that we have a lot to do. We have got to improve it over a period of time. But right now, our immediate neighbourhood is secure. Our borders are secure. We have friendly relations with other countries. There is law and order within the country and there is no reason for insecurity among our people. So yes, our security is good. Do we need to do more? Yes, we must always have our eye on the ball.

Q/ Global warming is affecting the Himalayan region. As a Buddhist and as prime minister, how concerned are you about climate change and the melting glaciers?

A/ I am very worried. Our planet has existed in a certain way for millennia upon millennia, and now, within a few decades, if you are going to change it, it is going to upset that balance. It has taken thousands of years to achieve a certain balance, and we human beings are upsetting this balance in a few decades. So I am concerned. Glaciers have existed in the Himalayas for thousands of years. Suddenly, when we see the glaciers melt in front of our eyes, I am very concerned.

Now project this danger into the future and you realise that whether it is global warming or the interrelated melting of our glaciers, it is going to wreak havoc in the Himalayan region. And when the Himalayan region suffers, the people downstream suffer. The Himalayan rivers feed most of India. Unless we do a course correction now, we can already see the suffering our people can undergo in future. Unfortunately, the course correction cannot be done in isolation. You cannot even do it regionally. Of course, we should have regional partners and partnerships. But it’s not enough. Global action is required, otherwise we all suffer together.

Q/ What has been your most significant achievement as prime minister in your first term?

A/ I was prime minister from 2013 to 2018, and then I got booted out and these are the wonders of democracy. But in those five years, I had this wonderful opportunity to serve my king, my country and my people. We were happy that we could undertake a lot of development work. More than that, I was very happy that we could stimulate the economy, which was suffering at that time. Also, I was very happy that I could further enhance the already strong relations with India during those five years. But most important, I was happy to be able to instil hope and ambition in our people.

Q/ How do you look at your growing up years?

A/ I am a simple man from a simple family. I don’t have any extraordinary stories to share. The good thing about my past is that I can relate to simple lives today. I can relate to people and their everyday problems and their aspirations.

Q/ You spoke of the impact of the pandemic. How do you plan to step up the economy of Bhutan and also promote tourism?

A/ The strategy is to stimulate our economy first. And the main way of doing that is the Rs1,500 crore economic stimulus programme financed by India. It is very generous of India and this will inject a lot of money into the economy, but, more important, instil hope and optimism among our people. So this is going to be the strategy by which we uplift our economy immediately. There is also a lot of infrastructure development going on with investments and a lot of opportunities in the entire ecosystem. We are also focusing on tourism and trying to get investment from outside. As I mentioned, the hydropower sector is getting a lot of boost. We have got to move away from subsistence to commercial agriculture so that our farmers have money in their hands.

Q/ Unemployment rate is a concern. There is also the threat of many young people leaving the country.

A/ The overall unemployment is 3.7 per cent, which is not that bad. But youth unemployment is 19-20 per cent, which is dangerous. This is partly the reason why many of our youth are migrating. As we are relatively well educated and can speak English, we get jobs anywhere in the world, especially in English speaking countries. They can acquire experience and knowledge and hopefully they will return to Bhutan. In Bhutan, we must ensure that the fundamentals of our economy are strengthened. We must ensure that economic growth is possible. We must ensure that economic opportunities are provided to those who are here. When those working abroad will see these opportunities, they will return and boost the economy further. They can also make better use of economic opportunities here by utilising their earnings, but more important, they will be able to invest their knowledge, skills and experience which they have acquired when they were abroad.

Q/ How do you look at Bhutan’s democratic transition? The recent elections were described by the world media as a “bright spot in south Asia”.

A/ The fact that our people have blessed us and we won the election, it is not just a bright spot, it is a shining example. Because democracies are usually either the result of civil strife, revolution or is imposed by colonial powers. They fight, there is bloodshed and then they earn democracy. Bhutan is a shining example in that sense because none of these things happened here. In fact, our kings imposed democracy on us. Our democracy was very carefully designed to suit our own purposes while being absolutely true and faithful to democratic ideals, values and principles. So our democracy is uniquely structured for Bhutan yet recognisable as any other democracy in the world. The other reason why we are a shining example is that we have had four elections and they yielded four different governments. So our people understand their responsibilities.

former-prime-minister-of-bhutan-dr-lotay-tshering-interview

Sat Sep 21 12:16:28 IST 2024

Interview/ Dr Lotay Tshering, former prime minister of Bhutan

With full executive, legislative and judicial autonomy, the Gelephu Mindfulness City (GMC) adopts a unique model that is distinct from the prevailing administrative system in Bhutan. Former prime minister Dr Lotay Tshering is part of the implementation team of the GMC, which allows countries, people and companies from around the world to invest hundred per cent in building a world-class, carbon negative city. In an exclusive interview with THE WEEK, Tshering, a practising surgeon based in Gelephu, says mindful progress, spiritual growth and nature centric development are at the core of the GMC. Excerpts:

Q/ What is the vision behind the GMC?

A/ The GMC is a vision born out of King Jigme’s wish to set up a city that has all the components other countries and cities dream of. By developing the GMC as a special administrative region, he is creating a remarkable system in which all three arms of the government―executive, judiciary and legislative―are autonomous and distinct from the rest of the country. The GMC will be administered by the GMC authority that will be independent of the mainland government. It will be run by domain experts from around the world.

Q/ How is Gelephu creating an economic corridor connecting India’s northeast with southeast Asia?

A/ Gelephu borders Assam and a small tip of West Bengal. It has plains, foothills and hills that present different landscape, biodiversity and climatic regions. The topography is unique, and the conditions are conducive for a full-fledged international airport. Gelephu’s proximity and connection with major Indian cities and its strategic location are most suitable to create an economic corridor that will bring development to the region. King Jigme has met Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma to discuss the project, and we are ready to take it forward.

Q/ What are the founding principles on which the GMC is being established?

A/ We are not building any conventional city. The king is anchoring the GMC on five main founding principles. The first one is health, which will have a combination of eastern and western medicines, and a blend of modern and traditional medical systems. The second factor is education―what you learn must be applicable in daily life. The third is sustainable energy, as our entire life depends on it. It has to be absolutely green and renewable. The fourth is spirituality and the fifth is wealth management.

Q/ Will there be hundred per cent FDI in GMC?

A/ Currently, our laws do not allow foreigners to own land in any part of the country. Similarly, our FDI policy has certain dos and don’ts in the context of our priorities. But that will not be the case in the GMC. It is a place where well intended, mindful and spiritual individuals should be able to pursue their businesses in the best of environment and circumstances.

Backed by clear legislation, the GMC will offer ideal factors like zero crime and corruption, full transparency and cleanest surroundings. It will not be a place for random businesses and questionable practices. All investors must understand and honour the vision of the GMC before committing to start a business here. The FDI policy will be designed to match the goal and spirit of the GMC.

Q/ What about investments from countries with which Bhutan does not have diplomatic relations?

A/ There is no inclusion or exclusion criteria. It all boils down to business ideas and investments that align with the vision of the GMC. It will be invitation-based, and investors―be it individual, agency or a country―must follow the GMC guidelines. New immigration laws will be adopted and facilitated efficiently. The GMC authority will ensure creating favourable atmosphere for the investors to come and build businesses based on the values of the GMC.

Q/ How will you ensure that the GMC does not become a strategic battleground for Bhutan’s two neighbours―India and China?

A/ We are a tiny country between two global giants. We draw confidence from Bhutan’s political stability and continuity of leadership. Through generations, we have maintained good and friendly bonds with all our neighbours.

Bhutan has excellent relations with both [India and China], and in turn, we receive warm and friendly gestures from both. The GMC embodies coexistence, harmony and sustainable innovation. Our aspirations are to sustain peace and progress in the world, just as our developmental philosophy is anchored on the principles of gross national happiness. Therefore, it is our prayer that through the realisation of the GMC, a prosperous and sustainable future is built in the region and beyond.

centre-for-bhutan-and-gross-national-happiness-studies-president-dasho-karma-ura-interview

Sat Sep 21 14:09:11 IST 2024

Interview/ Dasho Karma Ura, president, Centre for Bhutan & Gross National Happiness Studies

Dasho Karma Ura, one of the world’s leading happiness experts, has guided Bhutan’s unique gross national happiness (GNH) project. He uses empirical data to show that money cannot buy happiness in all circumstances, rather it is family and health that have the strongest positive effect on happiness. Excerpts from an interview:

Q/ Bhutan is a unique country which focuses on gross national happiness, not GDP.

A/ Gross national happiness takes a far broader and multidimensional measurement of happiness than the way happiness is measured in the World Happiness Report where you judge your life on a simple 0-10 scale measure. GNH includes both subjective and objective conditions to account for challenges of modernity such as collapse of environment, culture, communities and time. Moreover, unlike GDP, consumer price index or Dow Jones index, where quantities of things are measured in themselves, GNH deals with both quantities of goods and incomes and people’s qualitative experiences of feelings, satisfaction and perceptions. All these measure conditions of happiness.

As an account of progress, GDP is problematic, and legitimising GDP growth as an achievement condones excessive exploitation. Using GDP as the only measure of human well-being and progress is illogical and unethical.

Q/ Bhutan is surrounded by India and China, two economic and military giants. How do you ensure that your country is safe and happy?

A/ I belong to the generation that grew up in the 1970s and 80s, when the inspirational vision of peace dividend prevailed along with the end of the Cold War. But it turned out to be false. Now, there is an increasing diversion of money to arms race. Every nation claims it is for defence. But it is a vicious cycle―as one nation strengthens its defence capability, others feel more insecure, and the arms race goes on. The world has become far more unstable and conflict ridden. The scale of violence has increased and the potential to devastate each other is far greater. I wish pacifism could become a larger discourse in domestic and international governance. Technology and industries involved in weapon-making make tantalising profits out of conflict, insecurity and violence. In such a world, small nations like Bhutan, which have neither the demographic might, nor the economic size to finance arms, lack options, except neutrality. Obviously, neutrality and territorial integrity ought to be respected. It is a very attractive and long-standing idea in Hindu civilisation as well as Buddhist philosophy.

Q/ What would be your message to world leaders to spread happiness and decrease violence and conflict?

A/ I am a nobody in a small country, and a small country is a nobody in the world. But sometimes, revelation comes from small places. Globally, there is a hardening sense of masculine leadership and territorial intrusion. The spectre of violence looms large. Dual-use nuclear technology, weapons production and arms export are counted as contribution to well-being in GDP calculation. It is an instance of measurement gone wrong. Individual and collective fear and insecurity drive international policies. Thinkers in many traditions, including Buddhism, are focused on getting rid of fear among human beings. Irrespective of the global effect, small countries like Bhutan are doing the right thing, and that is the path we will continue to take.

sri-lankan-presidential-election-candidates-analysis

Sat Sep 14 13:15:39 IST 2024

The statue of S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, the former prime minister who led Sri Lanka through several political upheavals, stands on a pedestal at the iconic Galle Face Green, the famous city park near the presidential secretariat in Colombo. It was from here that the people of Sri Lanka started the movement to overthrow the powerful Rajapaksas two years ago. Today, however, an uneasy calm prevails on the streets of Colombo as Sri Lanka gets ready to elect its next president on September 21. Despite the presence of 39 candidates―a few of them offering some fairly revolutionary policy options―the 1.7 crore voters of Sri Lanka do not appear really excited.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) is contesting as an independent, backed by a major section of legislators from former president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Also in the fray are opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, leftist leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Mahinda’s son, Namal. Sajith’s Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) has aligned with some of the prominent parties and has the support of the Tamil and the Muslim minorities, who form 11 per cent and 9.7 per cent of the population, respectively. Anura is a Marxist-Leninist leader from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the main constituent of the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition.

While Ranil, Sajith and Anura are the frontrunners, Namal, the youngest in the fray, has made the contest tough for them. He is the official SLPP candidate, but his chances of winning even half of the 69 lakh votes polled by his uncle Gotabaya Rajapaksa in 2019 appear remote. Other important candidates include P. Ariyanethiran, the Tamil MP from the north, Nuwan Bopage, the activist lawyer who led the Aragalaya protest movement in 2022, and former military chief Sarath Fonseka.

“The 2019 election was fought on security issues and there were only two main contenders. But this election is being fought on the merits of each candidate, with an economic crisis still looming large. This one is establishment versus anti-establishment,” said columnist and research analyst Udita Devapriya. The last election was held in the wake of the Easter bombings on April 21, 2019. Gotabaya won a decisive victory back then, while Sajith finished second.

Voters appear confused this time. In the rural areas outside Colombo, the masses look at Anura as a promising candidate, while the city elites stand by Ranil. Sajith finds support largely from the farmers, teachers, doctors and the Tamil minority. “Two of them (Sajith and Anura) have promised to abolish the executive presidency. But we want a leader who will also look into the welfare of the Tamils,” said M.A. Sumanthiran, leader of the Tamil National Alliance.

The senior-most candidate in the presidential race is 75-year-old Ranil. But the erudite intellectual lacks charisma and the backing of a strong political party. Most members of Ranil’s UNP are now with Sajith, while he finds support from a section of the SLPP. Despite his lack of connect with the voters, Ranil hopes that his efforts in managing the economic crisis will help him.

While Ranil enjoyed fairly high popularity ratings till about a few months ago, Sajith and Anura overtook him once the election was announced. Son of former president Ranasinghe Premadasa, Sajith is a soft-spoken intellectual who appears capable of balancing the complex power equations among various stakeholders, including Tamils. His election manifesto focuses on five key points: building a resilient economy, empowering every citizen, enhancing government services, protecting the quality of life and safeguarding the nation.

Sajith could play a key role in ushering in an economic revival, especially as the country needs to work closely with the International Monetary Fund. “Sri Lanka has worked with the IMF before. When Premadasa got loans from the IMF, he utilised it to establish the garment sector. But, after him, successive governments failed to expand it,” said Chameera Dedduwage, a social activist. Sajith’s manifesto promises an economic recovery by working with the IMF. “The people of Sri Lanka will have to make a choice between a new visionary approach and the same old approach which protects the rich. Our people have a choice [other than opting for] extreme socialism and Marxism, which has not proved to be a viable model in modern day governance,” said Sajith.

With some of the best minds from the Ranil and Rajapaksa camps joining him, Sajith’s strength has grown multifold. His alliance now has key leaders like Patali Champika Ranawaka, Nalaka Godahewa, Charitha Herath and G.L. Peiris. However, Sajith could be handicapped by the fact that he has not really moved away from the UNP’s policies and ideas. His critics call him an economic populist and a better version of Mahinda―a rational, forward-looking populist, who is not a racist. And most of his party members are either from the SLPP or the UNP. Political observers say his lack of ideological clarity could hurt him.

If ideology is a concern for Sajith, Anura is banking on it to see him through. With his Marxist ideology, he has turned out to be one of the most popular candidates. He is campaigning on a platform of anti-corruption and clean governance in a country that still reels under severe debt. Backed by the youth and the protesters who were part of the 2022 Aragalaya movement, Anura presents himself as a change-maker. The 55-year-old former minister contested the 2019 presidential election, but finished a distant third with just 3 per cent of the votes.

“The people have endured these governments for a long time and are exhausted by the repeated failure of governance,” said Anura. “The breakdown of law and order has left them vulnerable to underworld crime. The collapse of the economy has further victimised the population, while critical sectors like education, health and transport have deteriorated. As a result, people are desperate to break free from their victimhood and helplessness. This desire for change is what draws them to us.” Support for Anura has hit a new peak just before the election, with university students, teachers and the working class supporting him. However the JVP’s dislike of the IMF and the west could play a role in determining his fate.

The last of the four main candidates is 38-year-old Namal, who seems to be facing a losing battle. The Rajapaksas know that they are nowhere near victory. Gotabaya, who fled the country during the economic crisis, has been campaigning for his nephew in closed-door meetings. Mahinda meets with Colombo elites and SLPP veterans and also addresses rallies, seeking support for his son. Namal is playing the Sinhala Theravada nationalist card, but it may not work this time.

“Winning or losing does not matter. Namal is a real fighter. He decided to contest only because of his fighting spirit,” said Mahinda. When asked whether the party wanted to field Namal, he said it was his son’s choice. Namal hopes that his father’s charisma and legacy will get him the Sinhala votes. Unlike the other main candidates, he has not promised the devolution of powers or the abolition of the executive presidency. He is sticking to the SLPP’s core ideology of Sinhala Buddhist majoritarianism. Namal targets young voters and has promised an economic revival and more jobs. “I chose to contest because my party wanted me to do so. It is the right decision, because we believe in the Sri Lankan model of development and that our ideology should be protected. We have a historic responsibility to make sure that we represent our voter base, community and people who believe in the Sri Lankan model,” said Namal.

In the 2019 elections, Namal’s uncle Gotabaya swept major parts of the country except the Tamil dominated north and east as terrorism and national security became key issues after the Easter bombings. But Gotabaya’s inept governance and his decision to flee the country during the economic crisis discredited the Rajapaksa brand and the SLPP. Most of the SLPP MPs are now with Ranil, while the intellectuals in the party have moved to Sajith’s SJB. Namal was reportedly asked to contest to keep the party alive. Earlier, the SLPP had plans to field billionaire businessman Dhammika Perera. But when it became clear that it would lead to a massive loss and that the remaining SLPP cadres, too, would leave the party, Namal decided to step in. “Only the MPs have gone with Ranil and Sajith. But the core Sinhala and Rajapaksa vote is with Namal,” said Lasanga Karunaratne, SLPP member from Matara.

It is, however, clear that the SLPP is facing an existential crisis after a series of political missteps and Ranil’s success on his own terms in the past two years using the SLPP support base. If Namal suffers a massive loss, it could spell doom for his future and could even bring down the curtain on the Rajapaksa brand of politics.

Opinion polls and voter surveys indicate that the election result will be determined by economic issues such as cost of living, inflation, unemployment and high taxes, while corruption among politicians and bureaucrats, problems in the education sector, flawed health services and a growing drug crisis are among other key concerns. The candidate who can convince the voters about having the most effective platform to tackle inflation and ensure economic recovery stands the best chance to win on September 21. As of now, Anura and Sajith have an edge even as Ranil hopes that his track record of stabilising and running the country during the economic crisis could land him another chance at the helm.

national-peoples-power-sri-lanka-presidential-candidate-anura-kumara-dissanayake-interview

Fri Sep 20 09:18:41 IST 2024

Interview/ Anura Kumara Dissanayake, presidential candidate, National People’s Power

Q/ How important is this presidential election for Sri Lanka?

A/ It is the most important election in Sri Lanka’s history. In every election, power shifts from one ruling faction to another. Initially, these groups had distinct identities, but over the past two to three decades, they have become almost indistinguishably merged. As a result, while governments have changed since 1994, many of the same individuals continuously held ministerial positions across administrations. Some have even supported conflicting constitutional amendments over time. Thus far, elections have not led to any significant change in the governance structure.

Therefore, this election is crucial because it offers a unique opportunity to reshape the economic, social and political path of our country, steering it in a completely new direction. It brings the government closer to the people, with the promise of a brighter future. While we have proposed these goals before, this is the first time we have the power to effect meaningful change. The transfer of power will be driven by a public movement rooted in the people’s interest, breaking away from the traditional cycles of power.

Q/ Do you think the Aragalaya uprising in 2022 made the NPP popular?

A/ The struggle emerged as an outcry against the oppression faced by the people. Imagine a country where one family ruled, leading to a situation where there was no oil, gas or electricity, children were deprived of basic necessities like milk powder, and people could no longer sustain their livelihoods. The last resort was to take to the streets and oust the ruling elite. If the people themselves build a government, it is their right to rise up again, should their expectations be betrayed. Such a struggle is not only justified, but also fair.

Q/ You were also a part of it.

A/ We became part of that struggle, not as leaders or planners, but as participants. As a political movement, the NPP recognised the significant challenges in fulfilling the aspirations of that struggle. While anarchy is not a solution, and some form of constitutional authority must be maintained, the core demands of the people were not fully addressed in the resulting political framework. However, the people have entrusted us with the responsibility of carrying their hopes forward through the election. We benefit from the momentum of that uprising and the people’s desire for change.

Q/ Do you think a liberation movement can actually bring about a positive change in a country, or lead to instability?

A/ People can rise up and remove rulers from power, but what follows should not be anarchy. After the expulsion, a new government must be established to restore order. The solution is to form a democratic, constitutional government to prevent the descent into anarchy. By establishing such a government, we can ensure stability and transition away from disorder. We believe that through this approach, governance can be restored and freed from the chaos that typically follows upheaval.

Q/ The International Monetary Fund programme is being implemented in Sri Lanka, and austerity measures are coming into effect.

A/ Yes, we are currently under an IMF programme, and its implementation has caused significant hardship for the people. This is why we are seeking a new mandate from the public to renegotiate with the IMF. We believe they will respect the will of the people. Our position is that in pursuing economic goals, we must advance in a way that alleviates pressure on the public, while safeguarding the macroeconomic system. Our economy is fragile and even a minor shock could have major consequences. Therefore, we aim to make the necessary changes gradually to ensure long-term stability.

Q/ Corruption and economic democracy have been two focal points of your current campaign.

A/ Fraud, corruption and waste have been key contributors to the collapse of the economy. Many essential development projects have failed due to these practices, but at the same time, numerous unnecessary projects have been undertaken because of fraud, corruption and waste. Economic decisions are often driven by bribes received by those in power, which has been a major factor in the downfall of our economy. Furthermore, fraud and corruption have become significant barriers for investors, entrepreneurs and industrialists, as the success of a project is often determined by the amount of money a minister receives. To rebuild our country, eliminating fraud and corruption is essential.

Additionally, the erosion of economic democracy stands as a second critical issue. Fraud and corruption have severely undermined economic democracy, as investors secure projects based on bribes rather than merit. Numerous barriers have been placed in front of potential investors, with the government acting as an impediment. Our goal is to ensure fair and democratic access to the economy for all those with the capacity and potential to contribute. Achieving this is essential for our country’s economic advancement.

Q/ How do you want to engage with India? There are other countries, like China, which also have interests in Sri Lanka.

A/ Our approach to India will reflect its close proximity and significant role in geopolitics. India has made impressive strides in both economy and technology, and it is crucial to our development and regional security. We will ensure that our sea, land and airspace are not used in ways that threaten India or regional stability. Additionally, we will carefully consider how our economic measures impact our country, recognising the importance of India’s support in our development efforts.

It is well known that there is competition between India and China in our region. India, being a country in the Indian Ocean, understands the strategic significance of our region’s political and economic positions. Meanwhile, China is actively working to consolidate its economic and political influence here, and we are aware of this as well. Our approach will be to safeguard regional security while leveraging economic opportunities to our advantage. However, we are committed to maintaining our sovereignty and will not become subordinate to any power in this geopolitical race. We believe in adopting a strong foreign policy that aligns with the global conditions and serves our national interests effectively.

with-his-marxist-ideology-and-anti-corruption-rhetoric-anura-kumara-dissanayake-has-captured-the-imagination-of-sri-lankans

Sat Sep 14 16:26:57 IST 2024

It is 4pm on a Sunday evening at Homagama, a Colombo neighbourhood. Small groups of working class people walk into an open ground for an election rally. An hour later, the ground remains half empty. High decibel speakers belt out popular Sinhala numbers. By 6pm, darkness engulfs the area as rain clouds gather high up in the sky. Soon, it starts raining, but, by then, the venue is full. People unfurl their umbrellas and wait for the leader to arrive.

It is almost 8pm when a man, clad in jeans and a blue shirt, walks on to the stage. The crowd laps up every single word of his speech. Anura Kumara Dissanayake has that effect on people. Political observers say his people skills are impeccable. They point to his unique disarming style while dealing with his party colleagues, parliamentarians, ambassadors, political aides and even his detractors. And that could be one of the factors that has helped him win over a significant number of voters and emerge as a leading contender this presidential election.

Rooted in the Marxist-Leninist ideology, the 55-year-old Anura leads the National People’s Power, a coalition of leftist political parties and socialist groups. The leading party in the coalition is the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, headed by Anura. With his strong anti-corruption credentials, Anura, who is the sitting MP for Colombo district, is running an energetic campaign against the two other main candidates, President Ranil Wickremesinghe and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa.

“The voters used to be carried away by emotions and petty identities such as religion, race or affiliation to a particular party. This election is going to decide whether they want the same crooks or they want to find a new path. Anura is the anti-corruption leader who wants to bring about a change,” said Anil Jayantha, executive committee member of the NPP. “This is a historic moment that will change the destiny of the Sri Lankan people.”

Born on November 24, 1968, at Thambuttegama in Anuradhapura district to a daily-wage worker and a homemaker, Anura was active in student politics during his days at the University of Peradeniya and the University of Kelaniya. He entered politics full time with the JVP’s anti-government insurrection of 1987-1989. In 1995, he became the national organiser of the Socialist Students Association and was appointed to the central working committee of the JVP. Three years later, he became a member of the party’s political bureau.

He was part of Chandrika Kumaratunga’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party government in the early 2000s as agriculture minister. In 2019, he contested the presidential election against Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Sajith Premadasa, finishing a distant third with just 3 per cent of the votes. But his prospects improved impressively in the past five years thanks to an effective grassroots campaign.

It all began in 2021, soon after the second wave of the pandemic, when Sri Lanka started facing a major economic crisis. President Gotabaya banned importing chemical fertilisers to make the agriculture sector completely organic, but it led to a dramatic fall in yields, hurting farmers. Subsequent protests gave rise to the Aragalaya movement, leading to Gotabaya’s resignation.

Anura was among the leaders who grew immensely popular because of his leadership role in the protests. Now a significant majority of the youth, university students and teachers, farmers and the working class stand by him. “I believe only Anura and the NPP can bring in change,” said Chandani Karunaratne, a student from the University of Sri Jayewardenepura. “Corruption has to go for the economy to thrive. All other contenders are from the same old guard.” Chandani and her classmates were part of the Aragalaya movement and were inspired by the JVP’s policies.

Anura has also promised to abolish the powerful executive presidency and to renegotiate the terms of the IMF economic programme. “The implementation of the IMF programme has caused significant hardship for the people. That is why we are seeking a new mandate from the public to renegotiate with the IMF,” said Anura. “In pursuing economic goals, we must advance in a way that alleviates pressure on the public…. We aim to make the necessary changes gradually to ensure long-term stability.”

While Anura and his alliance are growing increasingly popular, there are also apprehensions about them. His popularity and revolutionary ideas do not go well with the Colombo elites and the rich. In 2019, Gotabaya won because there was a fear factor about terrorism returning to the country. Though that fear has abated somewhat, the JVP’s revolutionary ideas and the insurrection it launched in the late 1980s could work against Anura. “When Aragalaya was at its peak, the houses of MPs were burnt. Many places were set on fire. Who did that? The JVP was well entrenched in Aragalaya. So that fear factor is there this time,” said a senior Sri Lankan official. Some critics worry that insurgency could return to the island under an Anura presidency.

The Marxist leader’s emergence could upset the ongoing economic reforms, too, given his dislike of the IMF. “Anura finished a distant third in the 2019 elections. The popularity he has gained now is a huge surge from the 3 per cent he got back then,” said Omar Rajarathnam, adviser to Factum, a Colombo-based think tank. “There is concern among people whether he has the experience to govern, but in democracies, the people’s mandate takes priority over the leader’s political experience.”

samagi-jana-balawegaya-sri-lanka-presidential-candidate-sajith-premadasa-interview

Sat Sep 14 16:25:38 IST 2024

Interview/ Sajith Premadasa, presidential candidate, Samagi Jana Balawegaya

Young men and women queue up for security check outside the Samagi Jana Balawegaya office in Colombo. Lemon yellow and light green colour flags fly high everywhere, and the office appears unusually busy. The party’s presidential candidate and opposition leader Sajith Premadasa walks in, with a smile on his face and folded hands. Sajith spoke exclusively with THE WEEK, explaining the importance of the upcoming election, his promise to abolish the executive presidency and his views on ties with India. Edited excerpts:

Q/ How crucial is this election for the people of Sri Lanka? Why do you think they should vote for you?

A/ It is a pivotal moment in Sri Lanka’s history. The people will have an opportunity to express their opinion and to provide their mandate for a new approach, for a pathbreaking vision and for changing the old guard. The country has gone through a terrible human and economic tragedy. Catastrophe has engulfed the whole country, affecting children, mothers, youth, everyone. Except for the super rich, every strata of society has been affected. This election will give an opportunity for the people to make a choice against the old approach of protecting the rich and the crony capitalists. Our approach would be to serve all 22 million people of our country. The people also have a choice [of not opting for] extreme socialism and Marxism, which has not proven to be a viable model in modern governance. I am very confident that they will make the right choice.

Q/ You contested the 2019 election as well. Is there a change in the mindset of the people?

A/ In 2019, there was polarisation in society. There was a lot of ethnic and religious extremism. The election took place after the Easter terrorist attacks. And the country was not bankrupt. The administration that came to power in 2019 has bankrupted the country. So this is a post bankruptcy election, testing the people’s will. More and more people are looking for results, for solutions. They want to see the practical, honest implementation of the solutions. They do not want ethnicity-centric racism, religious polarisation and extremism. They want answers to their problems. I firmly believe that my party and my alliance provides Sri Lanka with the best set of solutions that will ensure that we come out of this disastrous situation.

Q/ You have promised to abolish the executive presidency.

A/ It is an important aspect of the policies that we have proposed. We have seen that the executive presidency tends to corrupt, to move towards the concentration of power in the hands of a single person. In a parliamentary system, one would be accountable and would listen to the people. It will be a more participatory system of governance than the authoritarian system which exists now. It is always good to have a system of checks and balances. We don’t want elected dictatorships, a phrase used by Lord Hailsham, back in the 1970s in the UK. We need to have an accountable, responsible and transparent government.

Q/ As far as Sri Lanka’s economic recovery is concerned, do you plan to continue with the IMF? How would you restructure debts?

A/ We have to work within the existing international economic order. And we will work with the IMF. There should be transformations, reforms and changes on a mass scale and a number of corrective measures are needed. The difference between the incumbent government and us is that we believe that the changes need to be done with minimum damage to the people. The present administration has dumped all the burden on the common man and woman, sparing the super rich and the crony capitalists. We need programmes that uphold social justice and equity, that promote growth, rather than contract growth. This will make the economy stronger. We want to grow ourselves. We want to ensure that economic activity and positive economic multipliers are there, so that we grow ourselves out of the problem. And we will work with the IMF. Of course, we do not want to burden the people by taxing them very high. We need to have a humane approach that protects the people and does not victimise them.

Q/ You have been a friend of India. How do you expect India to engage with you?

A/ India is a great power. We want to have a strong, productive, constructive and conducive relationship with India in multiple sectors―politics, international affairs, commerce, trade, economy―to ensure that we grow together. And we have a very scientific, professional approach to decision-making. Our relationship with India will be towards maximising our national interests. India is our closest neighbour, and a strong, powerful and vibrant country. I have always been supportive of India getting a permanent seat in the UN security council, because that would be a reflection of the global political, military and economic situation. I have a very cordial and strong relationship with India. We will make sure that it results in benefiting our motherland, and our 22 million people in a variety of ways.

Q/ How do you assess the performance of the Ranil Wickremesinghe government in the past two years?

A/ He has driven the country to a new normal, which entails forcing millions and millions into poverty, making the micro, small and medium industries go bankrupt and causing the fabric of society to crumble. Do you want stability by bringing unseen suffering on the people? We have proposed that we have to grow ourselves out of this problem. We have to extricate ourselves out of this quagmire through productive, constructive, pro-people and pro-poor growth.

aragalaya-movement-presidential-candidate-nuwan-s-bopage-interview

Sat Sep 14 16:24:29 IST 2024

Interview/ Nuwan S. Bopage, presidential candidate, Aragalaya movement

Lawyer-activist Nuwan Bopage was a pillar of support for those arrested during the 2022 Aragalaya protests. In an exclusive interview, Nuwan talks about his decision to contest the presidential election on behalf of the Aragalaya activists, his opposition to IMF policies and his views on ties with India. Edited excerpts:

Q/ Why did you decide to contest?

A/ This is the first election after the 2022 uprising when the country witnessed people’s power. In the past two years, certain reforms were introduced by the Ranil Wickremesinghe government which were detrimental to the general public. The intervention of the IMF, the activities of India and the US and the expansion of the new liberal policies are all a matter of concern. Those of us who participated in Aragalaya decided that we wanted a solution and I was nominated as presidential candidate.

Q/ What kind of changes do you think you can bring about?

A/ The economy is very unfair. Social disparity is high. A few segments of society control everything. The workers are affected. At the same time, companies have made money. We have to address the social disparity. In the prevailing representative democracy, people would not gain anything after voting. For the next five years, the elected members will act according to their whims and fancies. We are planning to convert the existing system into a participatory democracy where people are more involved in the decision-making process. When there is a political decision affecting farmers, they should be involved. Likewise, every sector of society should participate in policy decisions. Another issue is a national question. Tamil, Muslim and hill country Tamil people should be given the freedom to rule their own areas within one country.

Q/ You have been against the IMF. What are your plans for economic stability?

A/ Our main slogan is the IMF’s exit. The IMF has got nothing to do with stabilising the economy. It is an institution that grants loans. The IMF has given Sri Lanka $1.5 billion and $2 billion more is coming. But the interest rate is 6.5 per cent. Our debt crisis is deep, we have a debt of $100 billion. The IMF is here only to impose conditions on the people, get maximum taxes and give space to multinational companies. The implementation of the new liberal policy is the IMF’s idea. We don’t want that. We know how to repay our loans, how to collect taxes, how to abolish the concessions to multinational companies and how to make government institutions profitable. We are going to stabilise the fiscal and exchange policies and stabilise the economy.

Q/ You say you are against Indian intervention in Sri Lanka.

A/ We are not anti-India. We are against the Adani and the Ambani groups being allowed to control the geopolitical situation in our country. You would have witnessed the recent Ambani family wedding. Sri Lanka’s debt crisis could have been resolved with that money. Now LNG and drug supplies to Sri Lanka are going to be an Indian monopoly. We have our own state pharmaceutical department. So, in the guise of the crisis, India is trying to exploit us. We are India’s friends. But we are against Modi’s economic concept of invading other countries. Adani and Ambani are the representatives of Modi’s foreign policy. We are against that.

sri-lanka-podujana-peramuna-presidential-candidate-namal-rajapaksa-interview

Sat Sep 14 16:22:39 IST 2024

Interview/ Namal Rajapaksa, presidential candidate, Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna

Clad in a white dhoti and a maroon shirt, the trademark red-brown scarf draped around his neck, Namal Rajapaksa enters the Sri Lanka Foundation building near the Independence Square in Colombo. He appears confident, despite the fact that he is fighting a losing battle in the presidential election. He has come to attend the signing of an agreement between the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party to support him. After the signing ceremony, he spoke exclusively with THE WEEK, explaining the reasons behind his decision to contest, despite the loss of popular support for the SLPP. Excerpts from the interview:

Q/ Why did you decide to contest? Earlier it was said that the billionaire businessman Dhammika Perera would be your candidate.

A/ My party wanted me to contest. I believe that I made the right decision, because we believe in the Sri Lankan model of development and that our ideology should be protected. The policies of most other parties are different from ours. We had decided to field another candidate. Unfortunately, he could not continue. Then the party thought that I would be the best choice.

Q/ Didn’t you take up the challenge to keep your flock together?

A/ Yes. The party decided to field me so that I can keep our grassroot workers together. I believe the young generation should take up the responsibility when there is a crisis, not when the ship is sailing fine.

Q/ The SLPP was among the parties with a strong membership base. That seems to have been lost.

A/ At the grassroots level, we are still the strongest party. We are the only party that preaches and practises the ideology that we represent. People still have trust in us.

Q/ During the 2022 uprising, people were completely against your family.

A/ I am the new generation Rajapaksa who has learnt a hard lesson from the past. Our policies remain the same, but the approach will be modern. It doesn’t matter that things had gone wrong earlier for my family. I want to correct those mistakes and move forward.

Q/ A part of the SLPP is with Ranil Wickremesinghe and another one is with Sajith Premadasa.

A/ My party is the most stable and the strongest political party in the country at this moment. Most of these coalitions that have been created for the election will not last long. So if a young voter is looking at a long-term vision, the SLPP is the best.

Q/ What are your promises to the youth of Sri Lanka?

A/ We will transform and modernise Sri Lanka. We will protect our culture. We will always ensure that we stick to our core values, but we will modernise. I want to ensure that Sri Lanka will be the modern hub of Asia.

Q/ How do you look at the IMF bailout package?

A/ There are good things in the IMF package. We need a fiscal policy that can save the country for the next 15 to 20 years. We need to rework our budget, increase revenue and cut down expenditure. We cannot burden the public with more taxes. We will go for more investors. We will work closely with India.

Q/ How do you expect India to engage with you?

A/ We will continue to work with India. A stable and progressive Sri Lanka is good for India. We want to strengthen our cultural and economic ties with India. Sri Lanka is a Buddhist nation and Prime Minister Modi believes in Hinduism. We have a lot of similarities. Ramayana is one of the key factors that connects India and Sri Lanka. So in the years to come I believe that there will be a very strong bilateral relationship between India and Sri Lanka.

manish-sisodia-aap-s-tallest-leader-after-arvind-kejriwal-is-working-overtime-to-revive-his-partys-fortunes

Sat Sep 07 15:18:05 IST 2024

It is late in the evening and Kalkaji, one of the prominent neighbourhoods in south Delhi, is teeming with rush hour traffic as people head home from work. Soon, there is a break in the hustle as senior Aam Aadmi Party leader Manish Sisodia steps out from an SUV. Flanked by party workers raising slogans in support and holding aloft his posters, Sisodia, the former deputy chief minister of Delhi, is in the locality to launch his first padyatra after coming out of jail.

The busy crowd slows down to catch a glimpse of the leader who was recently released from jail on bail in the Delhi excise policy case, after 17 months behind bars. A woman pushes her way towards him, “We will never forget what you have done for our children,” she tells him, reminding the crowd about Sisodia’s stint as minister of education.

At regular intervals, volunteers chant the AAP’s new slogan, ‘Manish Sisodia aa gaye, Kejriwal bhi aayenge (Sisodia is back, Kejriwal, too, will follow)’ even as the song, ‘Mera Rang De Basanti Chola’, now featured in most AAP events, plays in the background. As Sisodia finds children lined up with placards welcoming him, he moves through the crowd to acknowledge their presence and gives them his blessings. Sisodia’s most talked about achievement came when he held the education portfolio, transforming the condition of government-run schools in the capital.

Since his release from jail, Sisodia has been on an outreach blitzkrieg through padyatras, meeting a large number of people. “I am overwhelmed to be welcomed as one of their family members,” he told THE WEEK in an exclusive interview. He said his priority was to “reconnect” with the electorate. And rightly so, with the assembly elections in Delhi just six months away.

Sisodia is the tallest leader in the AAP after Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who, too, was arrested in the excise policy case. They go back a long way and Sisodia is Kejriwal’s closest confidant and comrade-in-arms. He was tasked with implementing the AAP’s policies in Delhi, which allowed Kejriwal to focus on the party’s expansion plans. Sisodia’s release has come as a big relief for the AAP.

“With Manish ji’s return, the AAP has become stronger,” said party colleague and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann. In the absence of its top two leaders, the AAP’s morale was dipping. Sisodia’s release will help the party re-strategise its campaign, especially in its stronghold, Delhi. He immediately took charge of the upcoming assembly elections, holding meetings with AAP volunteers, MLAs and councillors. “Our volunteers did not lose courage in adverse circumstances. We will soon come out of this crisis,” he said.

Political observers believe that his presence will make a difference in Delhi. Said Ashutosh, a political commentator who was earlier with the AAP, “There is a renewed energy at the organisational level. A new determination, which had been missing, is returning.”

For the AAP’s second-rung leaders, especially Atishi, Saurabh Bharadwaj and Gopal Rai, ministers with the most number of portfolios, the absence of Sisodia and Kejriwal has been particularly challenging. As the party and the government grappled with the high-profile arrests, they found themselves at the forefront of the AAP’s efforts to maintain its political and administrative momentum. Atishi broke down as the news of the release of Sisodia, regarded as her mentor, emerged.

Constant tiffs with Lieutenant Governor Vinai Kumar Saxena have made matters worse. The death of three civil services aspirants on July 27 after being trapped in the flooded basement of a coaching centre turned into a major confrontation between the LG and the Delhi government. The blame game over the pathetic condition of civic facilities continues unabated with Atishi writing to the chief secretary recently over sewer overflows and waterlogging in several parts of Delhi. Holding the LG-controlled bureaucracy responsible, Atishi said, “Delhi has been turned into a living hell.”

Bharadwaj, who has the health portfolio, and the LG’s office locked horns recently over non-hiring of doctors and other medical staff in government hospitals, holding each other responsible. The LG’s decision to seek details of the MLA Local Area Development Fund scheme on a Congress complaint resulted in sharp criticism from the AAP who accused Saxena of “deploying obstructive tactics” to “derail” the city’s development. Sisodia’s release has provided a breather to the ministers and the focus will now shift to how they work with him to navigate the post-arrest landscape.

Sisodia, meanwhile, has his task cut out. He cannot rejoin the cabinet until Kejriwal returns to the secretariat and reappoints him. This gives him ample time to focus on his political responsibilities, especially against the backdrop of the Lok Sabha elections where the AAP could not win even a single seat despite having an alliance with the Congress. Its vote share, however, increased to 24.14 per cent from 18.2 per cent in 2019.

The AAP fought a highly localised campaign, making Kejriwal’s arrest and the BJP’s dictatorial attitude its central poll plank, with an eye on the sympathy vote. However, the results indicate that it did not work, with the BJP retaining all seven seats in Delhi. The focus on free electricity and water, developing ‘schools of eminence’ and mohalla clinics had some resonance, but could not fetch enough votes. Besides, there seems to be a fatigue with the AAP as voters were unhappy with absentee MLAs and unfulfilled promises.

The Lok Sabha election results show that the AAP needs to go back to the drawing board and recalibrate its strategy. Its targeting of the Central government and playing the victim card showed a lack of strategic depth. “The AAP’s campaign for the assembly elections should not be relying too much on victimhood. The party should talk more about the good work it has done in Delhi for the past ten years,” said Sanjay Kumar, co-director of Lokniti, a research programme at the Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. Ashutosh said the AAP needed to stop its politics of confrontation. “It should adopt an accommodating strategy because people are suffering.”

Even though a lot of ground needs to be covered, a slight change in strategy is already visible. Sisodia first meeting with MLAs signalled a shift. Urging legislators and workers to do the “politics of development”, Sisodia said, “All of us should focus on positive and work-based politics and take Arvind Kejriwal’s unparalleled work to everyone.” On August 17, the AAP launched a campaign at autorickshaw stands across the city to use autorickshaw drivers, the party’s traditional supporters, to spread its message.

The outreach efforts also include booth-wise mapping of party volunteers and workers’ conferences in each assembly segment. “The workers’ conference is going on in all 70 assembly seats. MLAs are presenting the report of their work before the public,” said Sandeep Pathak, AAP’s national general secretary (organisation). There is also a door-to-door campaign to assess the mood of the voters.

The AAP is contesting all assembly seats in Haryana as well. The party is on a weaker footing in the Jat heartland which has 90 seats, but its aggressive campaign is likely to divide the votes and may spring a surprise. Said Ranbir Singh, an academic and political analyst from Haryana, “All regional parties, especially the AAP, will play the role of a spoiler for the big fish.”

Meanwhile, in Delhi, despite Sisodia’s return, the AAP needs to effect a fundamental change in its functioning for the national capital to be governed properly. “In the present circumstances, the fight between the Delhi government and the LG will continue even if the AAP wins the assembly elections, which will be problematic for the people of Delhi,” said Ashutosh. “It is high time Kejriwal came out of his own mindset for things to fall in place.”

At the moment, however, Sisodia is trying to set things right for the AAP, with a smile.

delhi-former-deputy-chief-minister-manish-sisodia-interview

Sat Sep 07 12:07:48 IST 2024

Interview/ Manish Sisodia, former deputy chief minister, Delhi

Sporting his trademark pink shirt, Manish Sisodia is his usual affable self. “Yes, I am here now,” says the former deputy chief minister of Delhi with a smile as he sits down for an exclusive interview with THE WEEK, referring to his long stint in jail.

After spending more than 17 months behind bars in the Delhi excise policy case, Sisodia says he is grateful for just being able to be with his family and friends, without the police looking on. One of the first photos he posted on X after his release was of him enjoying a cup of tea with wife Seema. He captioned it, “First morning tea of freedom”.

Relief is writ large on the face of the 52-year-old Aam Aadmi Party leader, who was recently granted bail by the Supreme Court. He is in a sparsely furnished room, and the wall behind his seat has a picture of Bhagat Singh, idolised by the AAP. On the side table, there is a statue of Lord Hanuman, who AAP leaders say helps remove obstacles in their path and blesses them in times of crisis.

Sisodia speaks at length on his time in Tihar, recollecting his struggles with isolation in jail and the constant surveillance. He says he turned to his passion, which is reading, to pass time. Spiritual succour came from reading the Upanishads and the Gita, he says.

Sisodia gets emotional talking about the impact of his imprisonment on his wife and son. His wife suffers from multiple sclerosis and Sisodia says she has had to bear the brunt of the political fight that he is involved in. He says it hurts him that he was not there for his teenaged son when he needed his father’s counsel.

Sisodia is aware that he has to hold the fort in the absence of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal. He has hit the ground running with padyatras and meetings with party leaders and workers. Sisodia, however, says he is in no hurry to rejoin the cabinet, and his priority is to reconnect with people. Excerpts from the interview:

You were in jail for 17 months. How did you feel when you heard that you got bail?

My bail plea was getting rejected for the past 17 months on baseless grounds. So I was a little apprehensive, especially because I was deliberately booked by the Enforcement Directorate (ED) under the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA). Section 45 of the Act makes it very difficult to get bail. Such laws are enacted mainly to curb heinous crimes like terrorism and drug financing, but the Central government has used it against political opponents like me to make it difficult for us to get bail. When I learnt about the Supreme Court’s order [on bail], I was confident that despite the draconian laws being misused, there are courts and the Constitution to protect us. These are the scenarios that Baba Saheb Ambedkar and others must have thought of while drafting the Constitution―to empower the ordinary citizen under Article 21. I am grateful for that.

How does it feel to be out here now?

It feels very nice indeed. From within the jail walls, I could see only a limited part of the sky and I would wonder whether the outside world we belong to actually exists or was that just a dream! To meet your family and friends without cops and to be able to think and work freely is the biggest blessing.

How did you keep yourself occupied in jail? Were you able to interact with other inmates?

For security and other reasons, I was confined to a ward and was escorted by officers if I needed medical attention or if I had to go for video conferencing and legal meetings. I was not free to roam around. Within the ward, there were five or six people with whom I interacted. In the beginning, they were strictly instructed by the jail administration to avoid interacting with me.

I was confined to a small cell which remained locked for 15 hours and the remaining time when I was allowed to move around in a small complex near my cell, I could not talk to anyone. I spoke to the officers about it, and I asked them why they were punishing me by not allowing me to talk to others. The courts had not ordered anything like that. Plus, the television in my cell did not have a news channel. I was told that it was stopped during the Delhi riots. Along with other inmates, I wrote to the jail administration and after five or six months, a news channel was provided inside jail. Besides, I read a lot of books. I am a bookworm. I read all the books, many on education, which I had bought during my visits to different cities. I also pursued my spiritual interests. I got the time to read in depth scriptures like the Upanishads and the Gita.

When Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal came out on interim bail, he spoke about 24x7 surveillance and efforts to break him psychologically.

When you are in jail, you are locked in a cell monitored by CCTV. Except the small corner where the washroom is located, all your actions are watched, whether you are sleeping, eating, changing clothes, reading, everything is being watched. And people used to come and tell me that the CCTV feed was being watched, and this was the reason why no one would talk to me. I was told that the feed was being watched in the superintendent’s room, in the control room and even in the director general’s office. Imagine being watched all the time. Of course, it was not an easy thing, mentally.

Did you ever get a chance to meet Kejriwal in jail?

No. Within the Tihar complex, there are several jails with different officers and staff. I was in jail number one and Kejriwal was lodged in another jail which was across a big wall.

Your wife has been ailing. You were not able to be by her side when she needed you the most.

It was a difficult time. I was mentally ready to tolerate the hardship that politics brings with it, especially when you are fighting and challenging powerful people. My wife suffers from multiple sclerosis, a chronic autoimmune disease, and the only cure, as advised by doctors, is a happy and healthy life. However, she bore the brunt of what happened and suffered more than me. My arrest brought great trauma for her and her condition continued to deteriorate. But I am thankful to my family, my party and its leadership. They would laugh and cry with her in my absence so that emotionally she would feel that she was not alone. But I was most hurt when people would say that because I was a minister, I would not have tended to my wife and questioned my request to take care of her. They said there must be others in the house to take care of her.

What about your son? How did it impact him?

Thankfully, the atmosphere in my house prepared him for hardships. We used to go together for the Anna movement. He used to accompany me for the protests. He was not expecting a soft life, being the son of a struggler and a fighter. Still, he is in his teenage years which is a sensitive time for any child. I used to ask him if he needed anything when I was in jail. But he always responded in the negative. I used to feel bad because at his age when children expect certain things from their parents, I was not there for him. It was personally tough. However, the trust, respect and love that I have received in the past 17 months outweigh the personal trauma. We should be ready to tolerate pain if we are fighting for a cause.

The AAP and other opposition parties have spoken about the misuse of the PMLA. The Supreme Court is going to hear petitions challenging the Act.

Laws like the PMLA are made with the intent to fight terrorism and drug financing. But if these laws are misused to crush political opponents or extort money from the business community, it is very unfortunate. I am hopeful that the Supreme Court will take a view on that. Also, if you give an officer the power to arrest with such stringent bail provisions as is the case with PMLA, then the officer’s accountability should also be fixed and it should be ensured that no officer acts in a manner so as to support the party in power or get them donations. It is also very important to free them (officers) from the political clutches. Hopefully, the Supreme Court will look into these issues.

How soon do you expect Kejriwal to get bail in the CBI case from the Supreme Court?

All of the BJP’s efforts have been aimed at making sure that Kejriwal, Sanjay Singh, Satyendar Jain and I remain in jail till the elections. As soon as the government realised that Kejriwal will get bail in the ED case, they got him booked in another fake case by the CBI. Kejriwal is being kept inside by misusing power. I am grateful to the Supreme Court that despite being wrongly booked under the stringent PMLA, it made sure that democracy, Constitution and liberty have prevailed. I am sure that the judgment on Kejriwal’s bail will also be a landmark one, especially after the Supreme Court’s observations in my case, underscoring right to life and liberty.

How is Kejriwal’s prolonged absence affecting the party morale?

I had my own assessment and assumptions when I was in jail. But now when I am meeting people, I realise that they acknowledge how Kejriwal fought the BJP, the Central government and the lieutenant governor to ensure that good work continued to happen in Delhi. Whether it was good schools, mohalla clinics, or doorstep delivery, he got it all done. Unfortunately, with him behind bars, that fight is not taking place and some works have suffered. But I am sure that as soon as Kejriwal comes out, he will make up for the lost work.

There is also the question about the incarceration of a sitting chief minister, creating complications for governance in Delhi. How is Kejriwal running the government from jail?

Ministers meet him. He gives them suggestions. But most important, all the ministers know Kejriwal’s intent behind any scheme. The work on that intent and ideology is happening even in his absence. What is missing is the leader. He would put up a fight whenever the BJP tried to stop work in Delhi through the LG and the officers. That is the reason why the BJP’s strategy is to keep Kejriwal in jail because they know that he would get the work done despite the obstacles. Free electricity to lakhs of people, free medical care for over two crore people through mohalla clinics are examples of Kejriwal’s passion for work. The existing issues like de-silting of sewers have emerged because the BJP and the LG are not releasing funds. Kejriwal will come out and fight as he has done in the past to get things done.

No cabinet meetings have taken place, and no major policy decisions are made because the chief minister is in jail.

The ministers are empowered to run their respective departments. But, unfortunately, the Central government has complicated the situation by amending the GNCTD (Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi), Act. Now, the LG is empowered. In the previous system, ministers were empowered to work with their officers. Now if the LG wants to get any work done, he directly calls for the file from the ministers. However, if he has to stop any work, he says it should be sent through the chief minister. Therefore, the obstacles in our work are because of the attitude of the BJP and the LG. But it is a matter of time that these things will be resolved when the chief minister comes out.

Now that you are out of jail, what are your foremost priorities?

My priority now is to go to the people. A disconnect of 17 months is significant for any political person. Therefore, I am reconnecting with the people. I am listening to their problems and assessing the situation. I am glad that in the padyatras that I have done in the past few days, I am being warmly welcomed by the people of Delhi. Their concern for us matters a lot. They are praying for Kejriwal to come out as well. This sentiment keeps us going. My priority is to be among the people.

How do you view the performance of the AAP in the Lok Sabha elections, especially in Delhi where it failed to win a single seat?

Every election has its own dynamics. There is a pattern in which Delhi votes. I am not going into the reasons. In 2014, 2019 and 2024 we did not get any seat in the Lok Sabha polls despite our historic mandates in the assembly elections in 2015 and 2020. Delhi decided to keep the pattern intact. You may attribute it to the fact that we did not get public sympathy or our strategy was perhaps not right. But this has been the pattern in the parliamentary elections despite people saying that a lot of work has been done. But I am glad that the people are now clear about what they want in Delhi. They want Kejriwal to come out as soon as possible.

You are out on bail, but the trial will go on. How will the AAP counter the corruption allegations levelled by the BJP?

A lot of cases were wrongly imposed on us earlier also which were quashed by the courts. This (Delhi liquor policy case) is the biggest so far. We are confident because we have done nothing wrong and our team, workers and leaders know this. That is the reason why the AAP did not break down in such times of crisis. People know the truth and have clarity on this issue.

What is the feedback you are getting for Delhi elections this time? What are the issues on which people will repose faith in the AAP?

Kejriwal’s concern for the people resonates among the electorate. He ensured that in times of inflation, people are not burdened with expenses on education, health care and electricity. It is an economic model that keeps inflation in check in Delhi, generates employment and prevents tax evasion. Every resident of Delhi has benefited from Kejriwal’s governance model. A big difference is being made to the lives of the people and I can see that sentiment in my padyatras. People hug me and tell me we have been wronged.

Haryana elections have been announced. It seems to be a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. The AAP is vigorously campaigning. Where do you see the AAP in Haryana elections?

When we went to Punjab, there used to be a three-cornered contest between the Congress, the Akalis and the BJP. We worked hard and came to power. In Gujarat and Goa, we have MLAs. In Haryana also, the Kejriwal model of governance that focuses on issues that matter the most to the people, as evidenced in Delhi and Punjab, will yield good results.

Do you see yourself playing a role in government formation in Haryana?

It is up to the people of Haryana what role they give to us. We are raising issues which nobody else is raising. The BJP government has disappointed the people of Haryana in the past ten years. People are looking for a change. How much space they give us remains to be seen.

Kejriwal’s wife, Sunita, has been standing in for her husband. She has been campaigning actively. What role do you see her playing in the days to come?

It is very rare that the family of a leader who is fighting a political battle of this kind takes the struggle forward without any greed. The way she has communicated Kejriwal’s feelings and sentiments to the people is commendable and it has developed a connect. But when Kejriwal comes out I do not think it would be necessary as he himself will connect with the public.

Is there any possibility of the Congress and the AAP joining hands for the Haryana polls?

It is hard for me to say much on Haryana as my focus for now is on Delhi. There are teams working on strategies for Haryana and once Kejriwal is out, things will move ahead further. It is difficult for me to say yes or no at this stage. Let us see how things unfold in the near future.

You are presently holding padyatras in Delhi. What kind of response are you getting? What are the people telling you?

Interestingly, people are meeting me like they meet their own family members after a long gap. The familiarity with which people greet me is beyond my imagination. Schoolchildren are welcoming me. It is heartening to see so much love. Besides, people have small issues of their localities which they share with me and I make a note of those issues.

A lot has changed since you went to jail. How do you see the performance of Delhi government in the last two years?

This whole story began with the BJP challenging the Constitution. The Supreme Court clearly said that the Delhi government had the mandate to control services. The Centre gave the powers back to the LG through an ordinance. In the last one year, the BJP has not given any attention to what will happen to the people of Delhi. For example, the Delhi government gives money to the Delhi Jal Board in the budget, but that money is not being released by the officers on the directions of the LG and the BJP. Moreover, by putting all senior leaders of the AAP in jail and in the absence of Kejriwal, governance has been affected to some extent. Had Kejriwal been out, he would be fighting for Delhi’s issues. That is the difference his absence makes.

You were deputy chief minister when you were arrested. When are you returning to the cabinet?

I am not thinking about that right now. My immediate priority is to meet the people and I am enjoying it. The ministers are also giving their best. So there is nothing that I can do better if I join the cabinet. When Kejriwal is out, my role in the party or the government would be reviewed. There is no hurry.

If Kejriwal continues to be in jail for a longer time, is there a possibility that you will step in for him?

There is little possibility that he remains inside jail for a long time. When he has got bail in the ED case, which has more stringent sections, it should not be a problem to secure bail in the CBI case. We are quite optimistic that he will get bail soon.

hema-committee-report-on-abuse-and-exploitation-in-malayalam-cinema

Sat Aug 31 16:53:03 IST 2024

Devaki Bhaagi, 36, still remembers the day when her dream of entering the magical world of cinema turned into a nightmare.

She was 12 when she went to Mananthavady, a quaint town in Kerala’s Wayanad district, with her father. “Wayanad was far removed from the glitter and glamour of the movie world,” recalled Bhaagi. “One of my father’s acquaintances, a telefilm actor, had told us that a filmmaker and his crew were at a hotel in Mananthavady to audition teenagers for their film Vacation.”

The filmmaker was K.K. Haridas, who had directed family entertainers in the 1990s. “As my father and the filmmaker talked in the hotel room, I grew bored and wandered out to the balcony,” she recalled. “An assistant director came and started talking to me. Then he grabbed my hand and pulled me to a room, offering me a gift. The grip tightened as we neared the door, and I panicked. ‘I don’t want any gift!’ I cried out. ‘Don’t worry, girl,’ he said, and tried to push me into the room. I screamed and grabbed a part of the door, and his grip loosened. I escaped and ran back to my father, who was still talking to the filmmaker, and sat beside him silently. I told him what happened as we left the hotel.”

Bhaagi’s father, a teacher, shook with rage as he listened. “He confronted a photographer, who was part of the film crew, and asked, ‘What is happening here? That man dared to misbehave with my little girl!’ The photographer said, ‘Mashe (sir), please take her and leave this place as soon as possible. If I talk about things that are happening here, they would just throw me out.’ We left the place immediately,” said Bhaagi. “Throughout the journey home, my father held my hand.”

Shocking as the experience was, Bhaagi did not let go of her acting dreams. She acted in advertisements and short films when she was in high school, and won the prestigious Kalathilakam title in the district-level school youth festival. When she was in Class 11, a debutant filmmaker approached her promising a lead role. To her dismay, he demanded that she be prepared for “adjustments”―a euphemism for sexual favours. “My parents were shocked that someone could come to our home and say such things,” she said.

This second incident forced Bhaagi to abandon her acting dreams. “To me, the film industry appeared to be filled with predators and manipulators,” she said. Bhaagi, however, returned to the industry when she was 28, as a script assistant for a filmmaker who was her senior in college. Today, she is an actor and ad director, and more importantly, a member of the Women in Cinema Collective (WCC)―an influential group of women artistes formed in the aftermath of the case related to the sexual assault of a leading actor in a moving car in February 2017.

Malayalam cinema is currently in a watershed moment, as women like Bhaagi are speaking out about the horrific experiences they have had in the industry. The revelations have come after the report of the three-member Justice K. Hema committee, formed in 2017 to study issues of sexual harassment and gender inequality in the Malayalam film industry, was released on August 19. The report revealed many instances of abuse, sexual harassment, exploitation, discrimination and exclusion in the industry.

After it was released, allegations of sexual misconduct against prominent members of the industry have gripped Malayalam cinema. Filmmaker Ranjith Balakrishnan recently stepped down as chairman of the Kerala Chalachitra Academy, an autonomous institution under the state government, after Bengali actress Sreelekha Mitra accused him of misconduct. On Mitra’s complaint, the Kerala Police registered a case against Ranjith under section 354 (assault or criminal force on a woman with intent to outrage her modesty) of the Indian Penal Code.

Meanwhile, taking “moral responsibility” for the crisis in the industry, most members of the executive committee of the powerful Association of Malayalam Movie Artists (AMMA) resigned, along with its president, actor Mohanlal. Two days earlier, veteran actor Siddique had resigned as AMMA general secretary after actor Revathy Sampath accused him of rape and criminal intimidation. The police have registered a case against Siddique based on the complaint.

Allegations have also been made against other prominent figures in Malayalam cinema, including actor and legislator M. Mukesh, who is a member of the ruling CPI(M), and AMMA joint secretary Baburaj.

A STAINED LEGACY

After it was formed in 2017, the WCC launched a film society named after P.K. Rosy, Kerala’s first woman actor. Rosy had played the lead role of Sarojini in Vigathakumaran (1928), the first Malayalam feature film. Her portrayal sparked an outrage because Sarojini was a caste Hindu and Rosy was a dalit Christian. Having become the target of angry mobs, Rosy was forced to flee Kerala.

She has been hailed as Malayalam cinema’s first symbol of resistance. The second is the leading actor who was sexually assaulted in 2017, but had the courage to stand her ground and file a police complaint. As the Malayalam film industry experiences a #MeToo moment, she is being seen as a torchbearer of the changes that are happening.

Interestingly, one of the actors who came out in support of her when the sexual assault came to light was Manju Warrier, former wife of actor-producer Dileep. According to the police, it was Dileep who had given a contract to a driver to abduct the actor and take obscene photos and videos of her. The police said it was an act of revenge, as the actor was close to Warrier and had reportedly encouraged her to file the divorce petition against Dileep.

Dileep spent 85 days in jail before he was released on bail. Interestingly, both Ranjith and Siddique were among the many celebrities who had visited Dileep when he was in jail. The case against him is still in court.

According to National Award-winning film critic and documentary filmmaker C.S. Venkiteswaran, the leading men of Malayalam cinema gained immense power after the emergence of television rights for movies. “When television became the major consumer of films, star ratings became immensely important,” he said.

In the 2000s, alongside Malayalam superstars Mammootty and Mohanlal, Dileep became a top beneficiary of these changes. Before the sexual assault case, Dileep’s influence in the industry was unparalleled―he held key positions in various film bodies and had the clout to bring about far-reaching changes. Just a month before he was arrested, for instance, Dileep had resolved a deadlock between two industry bodies over sharing theatre revenues. He had achieved it by orchestrating a split in one of the bodies, and becoming president of the newly formed third body, the Film Exhibitors United Organisation of Kerala.

AMMA expelled Dileep the day after his arrest. The decision was said to have been taken under pressure from actor-producer Prithviraj, who was one of the first among male artistes to publicly support the survivor of the assault.

The resignation of AMMA’s executive committee came a day after he strongly criticised it for mishandling complaints. Prithviraj, whose influence has grown in the past seven years, also spoke out against the culture of bans. He said he was also subjected to an undeclared ban. In 2004, when his career was in its early stages, he was one of the first male artistes to agree to work on contract, a decision that displeased AMMA’s leadership. Eventually, though, top actors also began signing contracts.

If it was a group of men who brought progressive changes to the industry in 2004, it is now a group of women that is leading the charge for change. “Shell-shocked by the incident, we came together as a group, determined to support each other and the survivor,” actor Parvathy Thiruvothu, a founding member of the WCC, told THE WEEK. “We discovered that many of us shared similar experiences of feeling marginalised. We realised that there was a long-standing pattern of such issues.”

WOMEN VS WOMEN

The state government appointed the Hema committee following a petition from the WCC. But the committee encountered several roadblocks. Initially, it issued notice in newspapers, calling on people in the film industry to appear before the committee and give statements. But not a single person responded. So the committee began reaching out to individuals, and holding meetings at night to suit the schedule of those who were willing to talk. Many prominent actors appeared before the committee more than once, spending considerable time clarifying various aspects. The hearings went on for more than two years.

In its report submitted to the government on December 31, 2019, the committee said Malayalam cinema was controlled by an all-male “power group” that wielded significant influence over casting and production. Since woman artistes feared retaliation and blacklisting, many of them chose not to appear before the committee. Many of them even said there was “no need” in Malayalam cinema for an organisation like the WCC.

WCC members who deposed before the committee said male artistes openly threatened to prevent them from working in the industry. Notably, the committee’s report, from which names and other sensitive information have been redacted, mentions an actor who was initially with the WCC, but later changed her stance to get more opportunities.

T. Sarada, committee member and National Award-winning actor who started her career in 1959, noted in the report that “sexual harassment existed even in the early days of the film industry”. She blamed “western culture” and increased openness in interactions for the current problems.

“Girlfriends and boyfriends are very public now,” she wrote in the report. “The relationship between men and women was different in the old days. The culture of the new generation is different. ‘Adjustment’ and ‘compromise’ are openly discussed now, whereas it was not so open then.”

Sruthi Rajan Payyanur, assistant professor of journalism and mass communication at Birla Global University, Bhubaneswar, said consent was often manipulated in the film industry. “Even after consent is coerced, the threats persist, trapping individuals in a cycle of fear and control,” she said. Rajan revealed that she had to abandon her dream of becoming a filmmaker in mainstream cinema after a director demanded sexual favours for hiring her as an assistant director.

The report said men had been exploiting the lack of legal awareness among women in cinema. To address the issue, a group of senior women lawyers have come together and formed a collective. “We see the possibility that survivors who are now coming forward and speaking openly could again be victimised, unless there is strong support system to help them,” said advocate Sandhya Janardhanan Pillai, a member of the collective.

Veil of vagueness

When the Kerala government appointed a committee to look into issues faced by women in cinema, it was widely praised as a progressive, first-of-its-kind decision. But over the past few years, the government has squandered much of the goodwill because of the way it is perceived to have prevented the release of the report.

In February 2020, Justice Hema wrote to the government stressing the importance of protecting the privacy of those who deposed before the committee. In October the same year, the State Information Commission rejected RTI requests for the release of the report. The redacted report was finally released only after the commission reversed its decision this July. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan attributed the four-year delay in releasing the report to Justice Hema’s letter and the commission’s 2020 decision.

The government, however, has found it difficult to hide its apathy. On August 16, three days before the report’s release, Culture Minister Saji Cherian called a news conference in which he dismissed queries about the report, telling journalists that he had called them to announce the state film awards. The minister also announced the plan to organise a “film conclave”, which later became the government’s standard response to questions about implementing the recommendations of the Hema committee.

One of the recommendations in the report was the setting up of a quasi-judicial tribunal “to liberate women from the evils of the Malayalam film industry”. Vijayan, however, said the tribunal would incur significant costs.

Currently, there is no clarity on how the government plans to go about implementing the recommendations. Said Parvathy: “We kept choosing to trust the government to do the right thing. We still are; it’s been a week since the report came out and we are still waiting to hear from the government on the next steps.”

In 2014, a committee headed by acclaimed filmmaker Adoor Gopalakrishnan submitted his recommendations to solve disputes between industry bodies. “We recommended setting up a body that would contain representatives of industry and the government. But it was not taken up. Our other recommendations, too, were not implemented,” said Gopalakrishnan, who refused to comment on current developments.

There are concerns that suggestions in the Hema committee report would meet the same fate. The report lists 17 kinds of issues that women in cinema commonly face, many of which are cognisable offences. This has attracted criticism that the police have not been proactive in taking action based on the report. “For the purpose of setting the law in motion for criminal investigation, mere information alone is sufficient,” T. Asaf Ali, former director general of prosecution, told THE WEEK. “Section 176 of the Bharatiya Nagrik Suraksha Sanhita [says that] if the officer in charge of a police station receives information, or otherwise [has] knowledge, information or clue with regard to the commission of an offence, he has to set the law in motion for investigation.”

On August 22, the Kerala High Court admitted a writ petition seeking a directive to the director general of police to initiate criminal proceedings based on the report. The court has asked the state government to submit the report in full, including the redacted portions, in a sealed cover. The next hearing is on September 10.

Meanwhile, as pressure mounted on the government, Vijayan convened a special meeting of top police officers on August 25. A team of seven IPS officers was formed, and H. Venkitesh, additional director general of police (Crime Branch), was made its supervisor. The chief minister’s office said the team would function as a “special investigation team” that would look into the allegations. Notably, there was no mention of any inquiry into the allegations in the report.

Questions have been raised whether the government followed due procedure in forming the SIT. Section 21(2)(b) of the Kerala Police Act, which allows the government to create special units, stipulates the registration of a first information report for forming SITs. “An investigation without FIR is a farce,” said Asaf Ali. “They cannot summon, arrest, search or seize any material. And, they cannot file a report in court.”

The delay in releasing the government order constituting the team has added to the confusion. “This is a peculiar situation,” said an officer in the team. “The routine is to file the FIR in a police station and then transfer it to the SIT.”

The officer said the team was not formed under the Kerala Police Act, and that it would be operating under Section 30 of the Bharatiya Nagarik Suraksha Sanhita, which deals with the powers of superior police officers. The team’s powers and scope of operations, however, remains unclear.

The scope and structure of the planned film conclave also remains vague. There is criticism that the event could force survivors to once again share space with perpetrators. CPI leader Annie Raja told THE WEEK that Minister Cherian should have been more serious in his approach. “The first response after a report like this should not have been to announce a conclave,” she said. “The immediate reaction should have been to present the report to the public and commit to taking action based on its recommendations. That was the bare minimum.”

Cherian has also been criticised for letting Mukesh, the actor-MLA accused of sexual misconduct, remain in a committee set up by his ministry to create a “film policy” for the state. The committee, led by filmmaker Shaji N. Karun, has been tasked with addressing 25 areas of concern, including gender issues and women’s safety.

Karun told THE WEEK that it was up to Mukesh to decide whether to remain in the committee, despite the allegations against him. “I don’t mind if he remains,” he said, “as his insights as producer, actor and politician are valuable.”

bengali-actress-sreelekha-mitra-interview-hema-committee-report

Sat Aug 31 16:22:00 IST 2024

Interview/ Sreelekha Mitra, actor

Sreelekha Mitra is known for her contributions to Bengali cinema and for being a champion of women and animal rights. A left sympathiser and a regular presence at party rallies and public programmes, she filed a police complaint against popular Malayalam movie director Ranjith alleging misconduct, which forced him to resign as chairman of the Kerala Film Academy. She was offered a role in Ranjith’s film Paleri Manikyam in 2009.

Q/ Ranjith has announced that he will take legal action.

A/ He has the right to take legal action. Who would openly admit to committing injustice? When it comes to something like sexual exploitation, even seemingly innocent gestures like touching someone’s bangles or hair cannot be taken lightly. Women know the difference between good touch and bad touch; we have been aware of it since childhood. I am not against Ranjith or anyone in this industry because I have nothing to gain from them. All I want is the Rs23,000 I spent on my return flight. However, the trauma I experienced that night and the following day was unthinkable.

Q/ Ranjith claims that this allegation is part of a larger conspiracy against him and the left government in Kerala?

A/ What conspiracy is he talking about? I am a left sympathiser and a staunch supporter, but no individual is above the party. He is answerable for his actions. This isn’t about one person; it’s about a broader issue that exists in many industries, especially the film industry due to the glamour, money, and fame associated with it. That is why it garners so much media attention. If you start unmasking, I am sure 90 per cent of the people would end up behind bars. This behaviour has become normalised, as if people think they have to give something to get something.

I gave him no such signal, especially since I was trying to save my marriage at the time. Yes, he was a good looking, charming, and well-spoken man, and in another time or situation, I might have liked him. But back then, I was very loyal and faithful to my husband. This is not a conspiracy. And if it is, I would say it is more likely a conspiracy from the Trinamool Congress government. Perhaps they know I am a left supporter and have instigated this so that a left supporter of Bengal will talk about another comrade in Kerala and the Kerala government.

Q/ What made you decide not to file a complaint initially?

A/ I have made my point, and I don’t want to pursue all these legal matters. Actually, I cannot say that he raped me or sexually assaulted me. That is not the case. Maybe if I had known you for a longer period of time, I would have come and hugged you, and you could have hugged me. But this is not the case. I met that person for the very first time, and he was romantically trying to instigate me when I was not in that zone. You have to understand a woman’s body language and attitude towards you.

filmmaker-and-chairman-of-the-committee-drafting-keralas-film-policy-shaji-n-karun-interview

Sat Aug 31 12:42:47 IST 2024

Interview/ Shaji N. Karun, filmmaker and chairman of the committee drafting Kerala’s film policy

Q/ As chairman of the committee drafting the film policy, you will play a key role in the upcoming film conclave. What will be the major focus areas of this policy?

A/ The film policy we’re currently drafting covers at least 25 areas, each assigned to specific experts. It addresses various aspects, including the construction of theatres, labour issues, and more. It’s crucial that the policy integrates both social philosophy and technological innovations.

Q/ There are allegations against M. Mukesh, an MLA who is part of the committee. Given that this committee is also responsible for addressing gender issues and creating a safe environment, how do you view his presence on the committee?

A/ He has to decide for himself. I don’t mind if he remains, as his insights as a producer, actor and politician are valuable. However, if he leaves, that space will become vacant in the committee.

Q/ How far have you proceeded with the policy?

A/ The first draft is done. I believe the fifth draft will be discussed at the conclave.

Q/ Is the MeToo wave sweeping through the industry tarnishing its image, or is it taking the industry into a correctional path?

A/ It is something that is happening not only in Malayalam cinema.

Q/ Yes, but this kind of movement is currently unique to Malayalam cinema.

A/ If the same issue is happening in some other industry, like IT or any other area, do you think that it will get such exposure in media? That itself makes you think with a different clarity, no? Because cinema has been reduced to gossip now, not a cultural activity. That’s why it’s [getting] such exposure. If [it was] any other industry, will it get such exposure?

Q/ But, my question is whether these revelations are pushing the industry to a course correction?

A/ Yeah. Their information, their thoughts and their feelings are added ingredients in the formulation of the film policy.

Q/ What will it add?

A/ Different thoughts. Earlier, there were no rules. When there is an issue, then rules are formed. So, now, the rules have to be recognised.

Q/ Abuses and exploitation are there in every film industry. Do you think the model established by the Malayalam film industry and its film policy could serve as a model for the entire country?

A/ [Yes]. For the entire country. Including technicians. And the people working outside should also cooperate with the Kerala industry.

actor-and-member-of-women-in-cinema-collective-parvathy-thiruvothu-interview

Sat Aug 31 12:41:33 IST 2024

Interview/ Parvathy Thiruvothu, actor and member of Women in Cinema Collective

She has captivated audiences through numerous characters over a career that spans nearly two decades. Yet, in the past seven years, Parvathy Thiruvothu has taken on a new role―a relentless fighter for her fellow women in cinema. Now, amid a #MeToo movement in Malayalam cinema, Parvathy opens up about the relentless struggle she and the Women in Cinema Collective (WCC) have faced. Excerpts from an exclusive interview:

Q/ After the Hema committee report was submitted, it remained in cold storage for over four years. Do you think this delay had a damaging effect on women who were ready to speak before the committee? Were there attempts by powerful individuals to identify those who deposed?

A/ Frankly, I can’t say for certain if any powerful individuals were trying to identify those who were deposing. However, the number of women who came forward was not large, though it proved significant enough. The women who did come forward, did so only after the Hema committee ensured confidentiality. They assured that depositions would not be recorded with audio devices but would be handwritten, a more tedious process. Recounting their trauma and abuse was challenging, requiring them to reread and listen to their stories repeatedly to ensure accuracy. This process took hours and, for some, even days.

It took about one and a half years just to submit the report. During this time, the WCC consistently followed up with them, asking, “Is the report ready? Have you submitted it? Why the delay? Can we assist in any way to expedite the process?”

Q/ Were you checking in with the government or with the committee members?

A/ Both. The WCC emailed and sent letters to everyone involved, although after a point we stopped receiving responses. However, whenever we did get a reply, we were very proactive in offering our help. When the report was finally submitted in December 2019, we were thrilled. It was a historic moment. While the submission itself was significant, as we are now, we were focused on the recommendations.

[The report] was put in cold storage for four and a half years. The reason given was that it had sensitive information. Statements from the committee members, especially from actor Sarada, were particularly painful. Sarada, despite being a senior actor, made light of our situation by suggesting that women should just dress better, then we may not face issues such as sexual harassment. I believe that more survivors might have come forward and received help if the process had been handled differently.

Q/ Did you feel that the government was apathetic towards your cause?

A/ Personally, I feel a gross delay in justice always amounts to apathy. The time and effort that have gone into a study like this should be valued. We kept choosing to trust the government to do the right thing. We still are; it’s been a week since the report came out and we are still waiting to hear from the government on the next steps vis-a-vis the recommendations.

Q/ Women actors and technicians who joined the WCC faced professional repercussions for challenging powerful figures in the industry. How did you cope with the negativity and abuse directed at you?

A/ This period has been incredibly educational. There were allies in the public and the media that stood by me and my fellow WCC members. I understood what true ally-ship looks like and what it means to stay on course. The solidarity within the collective was crucial, especially when we faced challenges like losing work or being banned by employers who saw us as troublemakers. We also heard from women who were harassed on set―not only sexually, but verbally as well. They were told to be wary of us, labelled as WCC spies, and made the butt of jokes, which made their professional environment extremely uncomfortable.

These experiences have caused many women to leave the industry before they could even start their careers. Witnessing this was one of the worst things. I consider myself fortunate to have continued to get work, including outside the Malayalam industry. Nevertheless, it’s still unfair that I, too, lost opportunities. During this time, we leaned on each other for support, engaged in many conversations and learned a lot. Unfortunately, name-calling, memes and trolling had become our new normal, and took a significant toll on our mental health.

We didn’t know where any of this was going. On top of seeking justice, we had to beg and grovel for it. However, I’m proud that we have now arrived at this juncture and that we did not give up.

Q/ What was your reaction when the report was finally released?

A/ By the time the report came out, I was in a state of shock because, at that point, I had given up on it. I knew that as a collective we are not giving up. But personally, the embers of hope had completely died down. So, when the report finally came out, my first reaction wasn’t relief but anger and sadness, with thoughts about what we could have done [differently]. But, as I said, this wasn’t the case for the collective. I am so grateful for our allies in the media and the public for keeping our spirits up, too.

Q/ Do you believe the government is genuinely committed to implementing these recommendations? You said it was insensitive for the government to move forward with the idea for a film conclave.

A/ I didn’t say the idea of a conclave was insensitive. When they say they will bring everyone from the serial and film industry to a conclave and only discuss solutions, it easily gives way to many assumptions and concerns. One of the concerns would be that survivors, for the sake of solutions, would be given no choice but to share space with perpetrators. And, that can be insensitive. What I said is that in case they conduct a conclave, I hope they’re sensitive to the part that they have to protect the survivors in that process.

I was hoping that there would be more clarity in statements that were coming out from the government instead of saying that those who have a problem can go file a case; instead of saying that, ‘Oh, we will hold a conclave’.

Ideally, the next step should be a thorough study of the recommendations, followed by timely consultations with stakeholders, industry unions, and bodies like the WCC.... The issue is that we receive these vague statements with no follow-up, and we don’t want to endure another four and a half years of repeatedly asking for clarification on terms like “conclave”.

actor-tanushree-dutta-interview

Sat Aug 31 12:40:19 IST 2024

Interview/ Tanushree Dutta, actor

Q/ What do you think about the Hema Committee report?

A/ The sheer size of the report is impressive and it seems like a thorough, groundbreaking assessment of how bad the situation really is. I was initially uncertain about it because I thought it would be like the Vishaka Guidelines, which lost steam over the years. But, I have corrected my opinion after learning more. I didn’t know much about the Malayalam industry... so maybe reports like this are, after all, necessary.

Q/ Tell us about the power dynamics during the making of a film and how actresses tread the path?

A/ The problem of ‘casting couch’ is not that bad in Bollywood. Because it is more like camps in Bollywood that actresses join to get opportunities. Then what favours they need to do is another topic and I would not know because nobody took me in their camp. Rank newcomers have it toughest, but I think actresses in the A-plus, A and A-minus categories, at least, escape such transactions.

Misbehaviour and misdemeanour tales are a dime a dozen. There are a few uncivilised men in Bollywood who make the whole filmmaking experience a nightmare for girls who are outsiders. That I have personally seen and experienced. The only way is to avoid working with such people. So, better to do research on people you work with and get industry gossip on threads like Reddit and Quora. But, you may still get stuck with wrong people because they wear masks; you don’t know who is a psychopathic molester or abuser.

Q/ Please share your experiences of working in the Hindi cinema industry, from the perspective of safety and security.

A/ I didn’t have much of an issue with safety till the Horn ‘Ok’ Pleassss incident, where goons were called on set to vandalise my car at the behest of an actor whose advances I rejected. In the last few years, after the #MeToo movement, I have been targetted by hired goons, damaging my psyche and health. All manner of mishaps have happened to me. All this was clearly done by Nana Patekar in retaliation and revenge.

Prior to this obsessive, vengeful psycho Nana Patekar making my life hell on a daily basis, I only had a few minor altercations with a few unruly, ill-mannered, rogue-type men. They are easily manageable if you are strict and assertive. They are the majority and they leave you alone once you tell them to back off. But, the diabolical, vicious and manipulative ones, like Nana Patekar and a few others, plot and plan your downfall, including causing physical harm.

Q/ What are the systemic changes that could make a real difference?

A/ Had the government taken concrete actions against criminals in Bollywood after #MeToo in 2018, or generally, I am sure other, more heinous stuff would not have happened. Because Bollywood inspires people. So, it is obvious where the action should start. Criminals in Bollywood are out on bail and are thick as thieves with #MeToo accused. The women who complained are facing several issues after the #MeToo movement.

Q/ Do you feel female actors need to come out in support, as one unit?

A/ Of course, women in general need to have each other’s back. Also, good and clean men in the corridors of power need to side with those fighting for justice and safety.

I have noticed that good people have no unity, but bad people and criminals [stick together] during crises. Good people are too busy avoiding scandal and conflict, while the souls of survivors and change-makers burn with indignation, fear, anger, and sadness for being left out there to fend for themselves against all odds. Then, I don’t think anybody can call themselves good; if they don’t do anything to help and just watch the toxic drama unfold and continue to damage those few who dare to protest and refuse such evil practices.

The evil criminals have their bhais, messiahs and patrons to protect them and keep them in circulation, but the victims and survivors have no allies. A warrior is fighting not just for herself, but the next generation, too, and you do not help or provide for her in some way. How many movements are needed to see that some of these men are mentally unstable, sick and totally devoid of remorse, like psychopaths.

bengali-film-actress-ritabhari-chakraborty-interview

Sat Aug 31 12:39:22 IST 2024

The R.G. Kar incident showed how little the authorities care about women. The Hema Committee report gave me confidence that this is the right time to begin this discussion in the Bengali film industry as well.

The report has given me the belief that big, powerful men can be brought down. So, I think it is the right time for me to come forward with the struggles and issues I faced early in my career. I don’t want my juniors and newcomers to experience the same.

Groups of powerful men exist in the Bengali film industry as well. But I would still say that things have somewhat improved from what I saw at the beginning of my career 15 years ago.

But the groups exist and they are so influential that rejecting their advances and calls can negatively impact a woman’s career. They can deny women opportunities in every production house. That is why women are scared. They are scared to lose their jobs.

However, in most of the cases, advances from influential men are not direct, like, “I want to sleep with you”. Instead, they would say “Let’s go for a coffee or hang out”, and then drop subtle hints about their intentions. Most of the time, these men are married and have children.

In 2016 or 2017, a producer closely associated with a big Bengali superstar approached me, suggesting that the superstar was interested in going out with me. When I declined, the producer called me stupid and said that I would have made my career had I gone out with him. This scared me.

I had another traumatic experience and I wish to file a police complaint soon. I met a prominent producer in a public place to discuss a film, and he hinted that he wanted me to be his girlfriend. I didn’t respond and asked him to drive me home. During the drive, he touched my hand without my consent. I shouted at him, feeling scared. Although he didn’t do anything more, he was visibly angry.

The Hema Committee’s findings on the lack of basic amenities for women in the Malayalam film industry are equally applicable to West Bengal. As an established star, I receive the best facilities, but junior actors face extremely poor treatment and endure terrible experiences.

Then there are drunk technicians always knocking on women’s doors during outdoor shoots. In the Bengali film industry, it is still common to film intimate scenes without intimacy coordinators. These practices need to change for women to feel safe in the industry.

Ritabhari Chakraborty is an actor and model.

―As told to Niladry Sarkar

actor-and-bjp-leader-khushbu-sundar-interview

Sat Aug 31 12:38:05 IST 2024

Interview/ Khushbu Sundar, actor and BJP leader

Q/ What do you have to say about the Hema committee report? Do you think that it will help women in the industry to speak up?

A/ I am happy that the Hema committee report has come out. First of all, congratulations to the seven women who stood together and decided that they should fight it out. I understand that sexual assaults have been going on in the Malayalam industry for a long time. But I haven’t experienced something like this. I feel the report will make women speak up. What is important is that women speak up immediately when subjected to abuse. You adjust and compromise because you don’t want your career to be affected and then you speak up 15 or 20 years later; I feel that is not the right thing to do.

Today, the entire executive committee of AMMA, including Mohanlal, has resigned. So there is a new leadership that is going to come up. I think that even the men are standing up in solidarity with the women. But I feel they failed in supporting a woman or protecting her. I am glad that everyone, including Mohanlal, has quit from their post. But unfortunately, it is only cinema that is in the limelight. These kind of sexual abuse or asking for favours exist in every field and industry. So we need to look back as to where we have been failing.

Q/ Do you think the report and the developments in the Malayalam film industry will give courage to women in every field to speak up?

A/ I don’t know if this is going to give them the courage. But one thing is for sure―men will be scared to approach a woman, and that is extremely important. Because they will now understand that it might hit them 15 or 20 years later, that karma is going to hit back at them.

Q/ As someone who grew up in the Tamil film industry, are you saying that such issues do not exist here?

A/ I have also been part of the Malayalam industry. It is just that I have been more actively involved in the Tamil film industry. I was introduced in Telugu cinema. But that doesn’t mean that I did not go through any of this. Somebody can try to be in your good books and silently pass a lewd comment to see how you react. But no man will hold a knife to your neck and tell you to compromise for work. They are silent operators. I am sure now women in other industries, including the Tamil industry, will start speaking up.

Q/ There were allegations during the #MeToo movement in the Tamil film industry and there are some even now.

A/ I don’t know any specific case. I read an article where a couple of women spoke on the condition of anonymity. But I cannot support that. You are making allegations against an industry that gave you everything you have today, so don’t speak on condition of anonymity. Come out and speak; don’t hide.

Q/ It is said that women who speak up lose out on work opportunities.

A/ All the women [from the Women in Cinema Collective] have done some brilliant work. One of them won the best actor award from the Kerala government. Rima [Kallingal] has been working, Parvathy has been working. All these are the most talented bunch of actors in the Malayalam film industry. And, no producer is a fool to invest crores of money just because you get sexual favours. We need to understand that. If you are successful, if you are talented, you don’t even have to compromise. Why do you compromise?

Q/ What are your takeaways from the report?

A/ I haven’t read the entire report. But we need a system in the industry to build trust among the women workers. We definitely need a separate body where women can file complaints and an inquiry is called. Most importantly, I want women to speak up then and there. Nothing can be more important than your dignity and your respect. Your career and everything else can wait.

Q/ You have been a member of the National Commission for Women. Did anyone from the industry approach you with complaints?

A/ No, not even anonymous complaints.

Q/ What do you think will happen now that the report is out?

A/ This will go off. It came up only because of the women who fought consistently. What happened to #MeToo? People are going to forget. But here, I feel we should have a logical solution. I have been part of a committee that works on such issues and complaints. Merely an accusation cannot be a complaint. We need to have a proper investigation officer, because we have seen that many a time the complaints are used to settle personal scores. So, we need to have the support of the investigating agencies, the men in the industry and from everyone around.

actor-turned-motivator-anu-aggarwal-interview

Sat Aug 31 12:36:32 IST 2024

My work today is focused on mental health, and I’m pleased to see significant progress for women in the film industry. The government is also doing what it can. However, women in cinema―and in all fields―must be aware of their actions.

Not all men are rapists. Unless a man has serious mental issues, he won’t rape or molest a woman.

Judicial committees and the actions that follow are necessary and should take place. Corrective measures must be implemented, but it’s not fair to blame an entire industry or group for the actions of a few. Regular introspection is essential, and if mistakes have been made, they should be corrected.

I have never come forward with a #MeToo allegation. I’m single and live alone, but I’m always mindful of drawing the line. Being aware of my actions has protected me.

Yes, there are bad apples in every group, but we shouldn’t demean or detest men as a whole because of the actions of a few.

Men are not born rapists, and most men are decent.

Many of my married female friends claim they have achieved success on their own, but I remind them that a supportive husband often played a role―helping with children and household responsibilities. I know what it’s like to come home alone with no one waiting. We should respect men for who they are and what they do.

Let’s strive to live in harmony and avoid hostility for its own sake. That’s how we can build a just and happy society.

Anu Aggarwal is an actor-turned-motivator.

―As told to Anirudha Karindalam

indian-singer-and-voice-actress-chinmayi-sripada-interview

Sat Aug 31 12:35:23 IST 2024

Interview/ Chinmayi Sripada, singer and voice actor

Q/ What do you have to say about the Hema committee report and the fallout?

A/ The women from the Women in Cinema Collective who fought and got this done are heroes. It is amazing. The rest of the country should follow this.

Q/ What are your takeaways from the report?

A/ I read only a part of it. But I have been following every development and I am in touch with the women there. More or less whatever the Hema committee report has said has been happening in the film industry. This could be true for any film industry in India. But I am glad that the report came out at this point in time and has emboldened the women to speak up. But I feel that there are a lot more women who do not speak up. Women can actually speak up despite all odds, but what happens thereafter is the most important thing. Most of us had forgotten what happened to Raya Sarkar [who made a list of sexual predators in academia] in 2017, the sexual harassment and the case and the report thereafter. Most people forgot the hounding she faced.

Q/ Could you tell us about the ordeal you faced in the dubbing industry after you accused Tamil lyricist Vairamuthu of sexual misconduct?

A/ Not just the industry, but the entire political setup in Tamil Nadu and the DMK’s IT wing were after my blood. Lots of Tamil people across the globe were after me for speaking out.

Q/ Do you think that the film industry also did not stand by you?

A/ Not just the fraternity, even my seniors―the singers in the Tamil industry―did not stand by me. All the senior singers in the industry ganged up against me to protect Vairamuthu and singer Karthik. More than the Tamil industry, the Telugu and the Malayalam industry were more understanding. I have asked my colleagues in Telugu and Malayalam industry to not work with Karthik, and they have agreed at times. I was disappointed with the way my whole fraternity reacted when I spoke up. I thought the people whom I respected the most, like singer Srinivasan sir, would support a woman who has been affected. But despite seeing the video evidence of Karthik misbehaving with a girl, Srini sir was the first to whitewash the accusations against Karthik. I lost six prime years of my career. I am not getting any younger. Why does society or my own fraternity punish me for speaking the truth? Like the #MeToo movement, I feel this should not die down. Karthik and Vairamuthu are still big in the industry. It is a cesspool of molesters.

jammu-and-kashmir-prepares-to-hold-its-first-assembly-elections

Fri Aug 23 16:35:54 IST 2024

Elections are necessary in democracies, because the core strength of democracy lies in participatory politics. Today, Jammu and Kashmir is preparing to hold its first assembly elections in a decade, in a strategic-sociopolitical environment that underwent a radical transformation after the abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019.

The big question now: how can political parties help make the elections free and fair, ensuring that voters overcome challenges rooted in historical reasons that had pitted a sizeable section of the population against the Indian state?

The polls will define what a vote for democracy means in Jammu and Kashmir today. In the past five years, there has been a sharp swing in the rhetoric of political parties in Jammu and Kashmir―from a vocal unwillingness to fight the polls unless Article 370 was restored, to demands for statehood and, finally, expressing willingness to participate in the polls. Some politicians even concede that boycotting the district development council polls in 2020 was a mistake.

This demonstrates two points. First, the Indian state matters. Second, the political class―including the BJP, the Congress, the National Conference and the Peoples’ Democratic Party―understands that for the common man bijli, sadak, paani (electricity, road, water) matter. Hospitals, schools and colleges matter. Roads and infrastructure matter. Employment matters.

Politicians, as most Kashmiris would agree, have not historically done well when it comes to meeting their expectations. Hence, the apprehension among voters about whether the upcoming polls would bring much-needed relief in their day-to-day lives or just be a vehicle for vote bank politics that would skirt around issues of development and governance.

So, in an ecosystem that has failed to deliver on public welfare, and has, over time, become vulnerable to not just terrorism and separatism, but also anti-India sentiments, how must the Indian state respond?

It must respond with democratic fervour, as it is doing today―by preparing to hold the much awaited polls. The annual budget of Jammu and Kashmir had always been enriched by grants from the Union government, irrespective of the party in power. Now, the promise of welfare schemes must come without colour or tags.

“If both the elected government and the lieutenant governor work towards peace and progress, how can there be any difference [between them]?” said Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha. “The elected government will get complete support of the office of the LG if it wants to work towards peace and development of Jammu and Kashmir.”

The people are eager to elect their representatives. “I have felt the pulse of the people during my public meetings,” said Vijay Kumar Bidhuri, divisional commissioner of Kashmir. “They are very eager for the polls. They have seen that, during the panchayat and local body polls, the sarpanch and block members have been able to distribute benefits of welfare schemes. There is a feeling of empowerment that percolates down when elections are held.”

The recent Lok Sabha polls saw a sharp rise in the number of candidates, because of which Bidhuri had to ensure that polling booths had two voting machines each. “We expect more participation in the assembly polls, and the subsequent panchayat and local body polls,” he said.

There are several reasons behind the increased participation. The youth are keen to participate in the decision-making process and, unlike in the past, when there was disenchantment with the government, they feel the need for participatory politics.

The Jammu and Kashmir administration is not particularly worried about the possibility of political protests, sloganeering and unrest in Kashmir once an elected government is formed. “Once people start reaping the dividends of peace and development, it is an irreversible process,” said Bidhuri. “Take the example of the right to information. There can be aberrations or misuse, but no one asks for taking back laws that benefit citizens. School curriculums have been completed, tourism got a boost, and markets opened up. The people of J&K are intelligent and will not fall back to the dark days of unrest.”

With the poll campaign set to start, voters are keen to know the core issues around which political parties would weave their narratives. They also want to find answers to several questions. Such as, does a particular party have a veneer? If yes, would the loss of that veneer make the party no different from the others? And, has the entry of a new party created a genuine political space, or is the party just colluding with another?

“All citizens have a right to be in control of their destiny and the moment they think there is no choice available on the political shelf, the elections will fall prey to the danger of being labelled as rigged,” said a senior government official.

A robust strategy is required to steer clear of these pitfalls, which pose a big challenge to the Union government. The answer may lie in a cross-party consensus that sends a message to voters that just as anti-India narratives are being expelled from spheres such as economy, trade, education, governance and security, such sentiments would be dispelled from Jammu and Kashmir’s political discourse as well.

“If there are protests by common people or political parties in a democratic way, and within the tenets of the Constitution, then I have no problem,” said Sinha. “But if there are actions that endanger the safety, sovereignty and integrity of the country, or challenge the unity of the nation, then I would exercise the powers vested in me by the Constitution.”

The judiciary and law enforcement will also need to play the watchdog role. Provisions of the Representation of the People Act and the Election Commission’s model code of conduct are enough to rein in possible attempts by political parties to create divisions in society.

In the run-up to the polls, a cross-party consensus for ensuring peace and stability in Jammu and Kashmir can be as radical a step as the voiding of Article 370 was. It will be a progressive step to declare that there would be no interference of the Army or the police in the polls, and that money power would not be allowed to influence the democratic process. Voters would certainly hope that all institutions rise to the occasion and make these pledges.

State and non-state actors in Pakistan could not disrupt the Lok Sabha elections. But the threat of cross-border terror persists. Security strategists believe that, in an effort to maintain its indirect hold on the levers of power, Pakistan would covertly support attempts to retain the anti-India constituency in Kashmir. The assembly polls, therefore, demand a security approach that is as cautious as the one that had been in effect during the Lok Sabha polls.

“The militancy situation in Jammu and Kashmir keeps oscillating between the valley and the Jammu region,” said D.K. Pathak, former director general of the Border Security Force. “Whichever area gets more security pressure, militant activities shift to the other half of J&K.”

This is exactly what the Jammu region is experiencing now. “For almost three years now, the enemy is trying to deflect the pressure [caused by the] tightening of the security in the valley,” said R.R. Swain, director general of the police.

After Article 370 was voided, security forces were concentrated in the valley, where more violent reactions was expected. This created a sort of vacuum in the Jammu region, where militant groups got opportunities to infiltrate and activate sleeper cells. According to Swain, battle-hardened terrorists from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan tunnelled their way into Jammu. Central intelligence agencies are now wary of the terror net spreading into the hinterland from Punjab, where Pakistan-based Babbar Khalsa International and Khalistan Zindabad Force have been trying to fish in troubled waters.

Bringing normalcy in Jammu and Kashmir will be the single biggest challenge for the next government. The first priority will be the strengthening of the police, which needs its own command structure to maintain law and order and carry out counter-terror operations. With the presence of more than half a dozen security forces, Jammu and Kashmir continues to have the country’s highest concentration of boots on the ground. Additional Army troops are being deployed to secure the higher reaches of Jammu from terrorist infiltration.

Traditionally, there is a three-tier security grid on the international border. The Border Security Force forms the first line of defence; the Army forms the second; and the police forms the third. Swain, whose tenure saw several steps being taken to strengthen the police, will retire amid the polls on September 30. He will be succeeded by Nalin Prabhat, a 1992-batch officer of the Andhra Pradesh cadre. Swain has been instrumental in dismantling the terror ecosystem to a large extent, at times even ruffling the feathers of politicians.

Preventing terror-related violence requires a strong government, unbiased bureaucrats and a vigilant police. Since geopolitical dynamics will continue to influence the border situation, the elected political leadership will need to have absolute clarity regarding its approach towards Pakistan. For peace, it is imperative that New Delhi and Srinagar are on the same page.

“Increased militancy in Jammu and Kashmir has been a result of unresolved political problems and a trust deficit between New Delhi and J&K,” said M.M. Ansari, who was an interlocutor for Jammu and Kashmir during 2010-2011. “The Centre must adhere to democratic principles of governance without using draconian laws like the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act.”

A drive through the tiny lanes of downtown Srinagar makes it evident how peace in recent times has brought back some sense of normalcy. Glass windows adorn brick buildings, where artisans are back in business. Two decades ago, when stone throwing first became widespread, the popularity of glass windows had taken a hit. Peace, it seems, has brought them back in favour.

Yasmina, one of the women artisans at Eidgah, Srinagar, once a nerve centre of militancy, has been working to revive the traditional spinning wheel craft with modern, foot-operated charkhas. “It is faster and safer for working long hours. If we work hard, we can earn more profits,” said a hopeful Yasmina.

Helping her and other local artisans revive their craft is Mujtaba Kadri, a businessman who said GI tags and QR codes were helping them take their products to foreign shores. Kadri hopes that the artisans would be able to increase their wages and profit margins if peace continues to prevail.

“It is time Jammu and Kashmir is freed from those profiting from conflict,” said Bidhuri, “and [is allowed to] build on the gains it has made so far.”

jammu-and-kashmir-upcoming-assembly-elections-scenario-analysis

Fri Aug 23 16:34:47 IST 2024

What makes the upcoming assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir different from previous ones is the altered constitutional framework. The reorganisation post the scrapping of Article 370 brought Jammu and Kashmir under the full purview of the Constitution. Thus, the new government will have to operate without the autonomy that the laws once provided.

Established regional parties like the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) have been grappling with this new reality. To stay relevant, their focus is now on the demand for the restoration of statehood and the need to address issues related to employment, land ownership, inflation, high tariffs and a deep sense of disempowerment among voters.

Imran Nabi Dar, the NC’s chief spokesperson, referred to the upcoming polls as an “alien election”. “This election is being held after Jammu and Kashmir was ruled by bureaucrats for 10 years,” he said. “It surpasses the six-year Central rule in the 1990s, after which elections were held in 1996.”

As the polls draw near, a high-stakes battle is shaping up between the NC and the PDP on one side and the BJP on the other. The BJP must prove that the voiding of Article 370 has restored normalcy and set Jammu and Kashmir on a development path. For the Congress, which aligns with the regional parties, the polls are an opportunity to reassert its role in the region, particularly in Jammu. The task of challenging the BJP, however, largely rests on the NC. With a strong organisational structure, the NC has managed to navigate the choppy political waters after the voiding of Article 370. In contrast, the PDP, which emerged as a formidable force after its 2002 assembly polls victory, has had significant setbacks. Several of its leaders and workers are now with the Apni Party, founded by former PDP leader Altaf Bukhari in March 2020.

The PDP’s influence has been on the wane in its strongholds―Anantnag, Pulwama, Shopian and Kulgam. The NC has been reluctant to join hands with the weakened PDP, as many of its leaders believe that going it alone would be more beneficial. “The PDP is our main rival,” said a senior NC leader. “An alliance with them during their crisis will help them, not us. It will hurt us in the future.”

The NC was in alliance with the Congress and the CPI(M) in the Lok Sabha polls. The party led in 34 of 54 assembly segments in the three Lok Sabha constituencies in Kashmir: Srinagar, Baramulla and Anantnag-Rajouri. The BJP and the Congress chose not to contest these seats, focusing instead on the two Jammu constituencies―Udhampur and Jammu. The BJP led in 29 assembly segments in these two seats; the Congress led in seven.

On August 21, Congress leaders Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge arrived in Srinagar, where they are expected to hold seat-sharing talks with the NC leadership. According to the NC leader, there was a possibility of a “tactical alliance” with the Congress in the Muslim-majority regions of the Pir Panjal range and Chenab Valley, which together have 11 assembly seats where the NC is in direct contest with the BJP. In the remaining Jammu constituencies, the BJP will primarily compete with the Congress.

Unlike in the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP plans to field candidates in Kashmir. “We will have candidates in 25 to 30 seats,” said Sofi Yousuf, vice president of the BJP’s state unit. “We expect to win five to ten.”

The party’s focus, however, will remain on Jammu, where it had won a record 25 seats in the 2014 assembly polls. Observers, however, say the BJP needs to address the growing disenchantment among supporters in the region, as evident from the decline in the party’s vote share in the Lok Sabha polls―from 46 per cent in 2019 to 24.4 per cent in 2024.

The BJP is facing a slew of challenges in Jammu―frustration among voters because of the prolonged political vacuum, anger at the new rules affecting local businesses, and discontent rooted in unemployment, inflation and rising electricity bills.

The BJP-led Union government has implemented several measures to offset these problems. It added six assembly seats in the region through delimitation, introduced reservations for the Pahari and Paddari tribes, and Kolis and Gadda Brahmins, and included 15 new castes in the list of Other Backward Classes.

Dar said the new assembly seats carved out by the Delimitation Commission have altered the power balance between Kashmir and Jammu. “There are also five nominations [to the assembly] with voting rights to be made by the governor,” he said. “That makes it 47 seats in Kashmir, 43 in Jammu, plus five nominations.”

The BJP has also introduced reservation in jobs for those living near the international border in Jammu, and granted citizenship rights to refugees from west Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. One of the five nominated members in the assembly would be from the refugee community from PoK. “This time we will fight elections in Kashmir and do well,” said Nirmal Singh, chairman of the BJP’s election committee and former deputy chief minister.

Dar said those who opposed the BJP faced serious challenges. “They will need to give the mandate to one party, as they have witnessed BJP rule for ten years now,” he said.

Political analysts say only a united front of regional parties can prevent the BJP from forming government. “They (the parties) need to work out an arrangement; otherwise, all of them stand to lose. They can agree on seat-sharing based on the leads in assembly segments,” said Noor Ahmed Baba, former head of the department of political science at the University of Kashmir, Srinagar.

The polls will also decide the fate of the parties that the NC and the PDP label as the BJP’s proxies―the Apni Party, the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), and the People’s Conference. While the Apni Party has struggled to gain traction, the DPAP, led by former Congress leader Ghulam Nabi Azad, is yet to establish itself as a credible alternative. The People’s Conference, led by Sajad Lone, has support in North Kashmir, particularly in Kupwara district, but its broader appeal is doubtful.

Waheed Parra, the PDP’s youth president who came second in Srinagar in the Lok Sabha polls, said the assembly polls were about reclaiming what the people had lost. “There is a complete sense of dispossession in Jammu and Kashmir,” he said.

With institutions being mostly run by people from outside Jammu and Kashmir, there is a strong desire among local residents to reclaim their political space. “This is what makes this election so important,” said Parra. “While it may be too much to expect that the government will fully meet expectations, it will help alleviate some of the fear.”

Those who reached voting age since the previous assembly polls in 2014 are eager to elect a government that listens to their concerns. Kashif Amin Malik, a 24-year-old student from Noorabad in Kulgam district, belongs to this new generation. “Some people don’t understand the power of their vote,” said Malik, who voted in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. “If you don’t vote, you can’t elect the person you want to represent you in the assembly. That is self-disempowerment.”

Muzamil Ahmed of Pulwama said the present administration was disconnected from issues that the people face. “Even when matters are brought to their attention, it takes time to fix problems because approval has to come from the lieutenant governor,” he said.

Day-to-day problems such as water scarcity and inadequate transportation, he said, are best addressed by local politicians who are connected to their communities. “A local politician is aware of these problems because he experiences them himself,” said Ahmed.

Power supply is a major concern for Muhammad Amin, a 21-year-old political science student from Lolab, close to the Line of Control in Kupwara. “Electricity supply is erratic, and outages are frustrating, especially in winter,” he said. Lolab, according to him, has also been neglected as a tourist destination.

Across Kashmir, there is demand for an elected government that understands the aspirations of the youth. What seems an added motivation for the youth to vote is the way the two MPs from Kashmir, Agha Syed Ruhullah Mehdi and Mian Altaf Ahmed Larvi, raised the issue of abrogation of Article 370 and other matters concerning Kashmir in Parliament.

Even older voters are upbeat. “The first time I voted was in the 1987 assembly polls,” said Mushtaq Ahmed, 60, owner of a department store in the upmarket Balgarden area of Srinagar. “I had voted for the Muslim Mutahida Mahaz (Muslim United Front, or MUF).”

The MUF was a coalition of separatist parties that challenged the dominant National Conference. The polls were rigged in favour of the NC, leading to anger among MUF supporters. A year later, militancy erupted.

“I voted again in the Lok Sabha polls this year because the situation in Jammu and Kashmir has been difficult after the reading down of Article 370. We have been disempowered,” said Ahmed.

In Jammu, too, people feel that the increased powers of the lieutenant governor have undermined democracy. “Democracy must stay alive; otherwise, it doesn’t take much time for a Bangladesh-like situation,” said Ashok Sharma of Jammu. “Democracy is the identity of India, and people can’t be treated like cattle.”

The demand of voters seems clear: a government that listens, understands and acts on their behalf. Whether the first assembly polls under the new political order would be able to deliver it will be closely watched, not just in India but abroad as well.

jammu-and-kashmir-police-director-general-r-r-swain-interview

Sat Aug 24 11:56:35 IST 2024

Interview/ R.R. Swain, Director-General, Jammu and Kashmir Police

ABOUT THREE DOZEN Pakistani terrorists entered the border areas of Samba, Kathua and Hiranagar through tunnels during the three-month-long Lok Sabha elections to carry out attacks in Jammu. It was a new challenge for security agencies because unlike in the Kashmir valley, where indoctrination drives terrorism, it is the lure of money that is feeding the terror ecosystem in Jammu. “The people who are guiding the terrorists are doing it for money,” says R.R. Swain, director-general of Jammu and Kashmir police, in an exclusive interview. He says the police are focusing on village defence committees and setting up border police stations with night vision devices and better technology to defeat terrorism. Excerpts:

Q/ Many soldiers lost their lives in terror attacks in Jammu recently. Is terrorism back in Jammu after long years of peace?

A/ Terror threats in the Jammu region have been there for some time. In October 2021, we witnessed a terror attack in Poonch district, where five soldiers were killed in an ambush. There have also been drone attacks, including those targeting the Air Force facility in Jammu in June 2021. So it is not a recent phenomenon. For almost three years, the adversary has been trying to deflect the pressure [caused by the] tightening of security in the valley. A suicide attack was planned on the eve of the prime minister’s visit for a rural development programme in the Palli village on the outskirts of Jammu in April 2022. Two foreign terrorists attempted a suicide attack but were neutralised. During the exchange of fire, one CISF assistant sub-inspector lost his life and some others were injured. So Jammu has always been on the radar.

Q/ Is there any evidence of Pakistan support to the terror attacks in Jammu?

A/ How can a tunnel be dug from the other side (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir) without the knowledge or support of the Pakistani army? Usually the length of these tunnels varies between 350 to 600 metres and it will take at least 30 days for digging up. These activities cannot be hidden from anyone as it requires logistical support and manpower to make it operational. There will be enough movement in the area when the terrorists use it and it cannot be done without the knowledge of the Pakistani state.

Q/ It is said that these terrorists belong to the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region and trained alongside the Taliban.

A/ We know for sure that the two suicide attackers who attempted a terror strike days before the prime minister’s visit to Jammu were non-Urdu and non-Sindhi speakers and in all probability spoke Pashto. Pakistan has a sizeable Pashto-speaking population on its side of the Durand Line even though it is the language of the dominant population in the southern and eastern regions of Afghanistan. These are badlands without any control and these people are battle-hardened. They have trained with outfits like Jaish-e-Mohammed and other terrorist outfits who have openly rallied there in March and April, urging the youth to join them and move into India.

Q/ Is Jammu becoming a fertile ground for radicalised youth who take up arms?

A/ There is less indoctrination and fewer ideology-driven terror activities in Jammu than in Kashmir. Rather, it is the lure of money through narcotics and criminal syndicates that is being used for smuggling of drugs, arms and ammunition that is feeding the terror ecosystem. In Jammu, Kathua and Samba, the people who are guiding the terrorists are doing it for money and gradually a fear factor is inculcated in them as they get indexed in Pakistan once their handlers record their videos and identify their families.

Q/ Will the security environment allow the peaceful conduct of the assembly elections?

A/ As far as providing security is concerned, we are absolutely committed to it and we don’t see that as a challenge. We overcame these threats and challenges during the Lok Sabha polls and the outcome has been extremely positive and encouraging, as a large number of people stepped out of their homes to participate in the electoral process.

Q/ Has the alienation of local people over the years led to human intelligence drying up in J&K?

A/ This theory has no evidence. It is a conjecture because human intelligence is still flowing as it used to be in the past few years. The difference between intelligence gathering in the valley and in Jammu is that while most areas in the valley are connected by road or telecommunication facilities, in mountain regions it takes hours to reach from one spot to another and there is no road or mobile connectivity. Therefore, there is a gap between getting information about the movement of terrorists and reacting to it quickly. This gap between active information and action has to be reduced by way of dominating the heights. Unless we occupy the heights and reach quickly, there is bound to be a time lapse. The J&K Police, like all forces deployed in J&K, has its own challenges of manpower, but efforts are being made to occupy the heights in a way that the enemy does not have an advantage.

Q/ How is the J&K Police engaging the local population in far-flung areas?

A/ We have selected villages where we are supporting village defence committees and setting up border police stations, enabling them with night-vision devices, better equipment and technology to create a deterrent. A village defence committee has approximately fifteen persons, mostly young and able-bodied men who are keen to act as volunteers to assist the local police. We are offering them incentives such as permanent jobs in the police force if they demonstrate courage in collecting information and the action against terrorists and also meet the criteria such as age, height and so on. We also offer liberal cash rewards for doing something that can be directly linked to protection of community, installations and public assets.

jammu-and-kashmir-lieutenant-governor-manoj-sinha-interview

Fri Aug 23 14:48:54 IST 2024

When Sheikh Abdullah was sworn in as chief minister on July 9, 1977 after the National Conference won the assembly polls, it marked the end of the first spell of governor’s rule in Jammu and Kashmir. The polls were regarded as the first free and fair elections in the state, where large-scale rigging had dented the credibility of the democratic process, and the credit went to prime minister Morarji Desai.

Manoj Sinha, lieutenant governor of Jammu and Kashmir, says free and fair elections were held for the second time in the state in 2002 when A.B. Vajpayee was prime minister and the third time in 2014, after Narendra Modi became prime minister. “Otherwise, there used to be a collector saab here and two kinds of MLAs were chosen―one by the public and the other by the collector saab,” says Sinha in an exclusive interview with THE WEEK. And he thinks the Union territory is ready for another free and fair election. “In the past five years, after the abrogation of Article 370, people’s faith in the Constitution and democratic process has gone up,” he says.

A three-time Lok Sabha member from Ghazipur, Uttar Pradesh, Sinha was a minister of state in the first Modi government. He was said to be in the race for the post of Uttar Pradesh chief minister when the BJP won the assembly elections in 2017. He took charge as lieutenant governor of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2020.

Sinha is a postgraduate in civil engineering, and he started his political career while studying at the Indian Institute of Technology (Banaras Hindu University) Varanasi, where he was elected president of the students’ union. A portrait of his idol Pandit Madan Mohan Malviya, who founded BHU, adorns a wooden bookcase in Sinha’s office in Srinagar. “Mahamana (Malviya) worked tirelessly to raise national consciousness among people,” he says. Sinha asserts that the sovereignty and integrity of the country are non-negotiable. “Constructive criticism is always welcome,” he says. “But if there is criticism that fuels terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir, threatening the unity and sovereignty of the country, then it is dangerous.” Edited excerpts from the interview conducted at the Raj Bhawan on August 11:

Q/ The Election Commission has set the ball rolling for the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Is the environment conducive for polls?

A/ When Article 370 and 35(A) were abrogated on August 5, 2019, the Union home minister said in Parliament that there would be delimitation first, then assembly elections and statehood at an appropriate time. This was reiterated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well. Recently, when the prime minister addressed a public meeting in Jammu and Kashmir, he said assembly elections would be held soon. The Election Commission was here for a few days and held consultations with all stakeholders. On behalf of the administration, we told them that the assembly elections could be held.

It is pertinent to note that after the J&K Reorganisation Act, the number of assembly seats had gone up. A need arose for demarcation of boundaries and the Delimitation Commission was constituted to carry out this work. It is a time-consuming exercise. The commission, set up under Justice Ranjana Desai, made visits to J&K and held meetings with stakeholders in J&K and Delhi. The recent Lok Sabha elections were an indicator that J&K was ready for polls. We saw more than 58 per cent voter turnout, especially in the valley, which is the highest in three and a half decades. We can easily conclude that the atmosphere is conducive to polls.

Q/ How confident are you that the elections will be free and fair?

A/ The conduct of free and fair elections used to be a huge challenge in J&K. If you ask the common man, he will tell you that free and fair polls have been held only thrice―when Morarji Desai, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Narendra Modi were prime ministers. Otherwise, there used to be a collector saab here and two kinds of MLAs were chosen―one by the public and the other by the collector saab. In the last five years, after the abrogation of Article 370, people’s faith in the Constitution and democratic process has gone up. This message has been conveyed to the people of this country and the rest of the world. It has definitely been an achievement to conduct free and fair general elections. I am confident that there will be free and fair assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir.

Q/ You served as lieutenant governor for four out of five years in J&K since the abrogation of Article 370. When you look back, what are the achievements? Is there unfinished work?

A/ I see the past five years as the dawn of peace, prosperity and development in J&K. Under the vision of PM Modi, we got the strength to fulfil the aspirations of people and usher in development without discrimination. The women of J&K were deprived of basic rights like entitlement to property if they were married outside the state. The large-scale discrimination came to an end with the abrogation of Article 370. Benefits have been extended to Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Classes, even as reservation under ST category was extended to communities like Paharis and Gujjar-Bakarwals. Voting rights have also been given to west Pakistani refugees.

A three-tier panchayati raj system has been implemented and social security schemes have brought relief to the old and widowed. The patwari raj is over, as all land records have been digitised. The common man feels empowered as there is transparency and accountability in the system. The Public Services Guarantee Act allows citizens to avail more than 1,100 online services that are time-bound.

Another key indicator of development is air, road and rail connectivity. Highway and tunnel projects worth Rs1.5 lakh crore are under implementation. The travel time from Jammu to Srinagar has reduced from eight to five hours. Villages with at least 250 people are connected by roads. The Katra-Delhi greenfield expressway will be operational this year. Srinagar has 140 flights daily, against 20 or 22 earlier, while the number of flights from Jammu has grown from six to 48 a day. The Kashmir-Kanyakumari rail link will be operational this year. Tourist influx, too, has increased more than two and a half times to 2.11 crore last year.

After independence, the total private investment was Rs13,000-14,000 crore till 2021. After we announced the new industrial scheme, we have received investment proposals to the tune of Rs1,25,000 crore. Currently, projects worth Rs28,000 crore are on the ground and some of them will get completed in a few months, while others may take a few years.

Q/ How are you dealing with unemployment?

A/ Nearly 43,000 government jobs have been given in the past five years. The focus is also on self-employment by giving financial help for enterprises. Jammu and Kashmir has achieved the first rank among all states and UTs for projects established under the prime minister’s employment generation programme for the year 2023-24. During 2023-24 alone, employment has been generated for 1,20,296 people. Significant work is being done in agriculture, horticulture and allied sectors for creating more job opportunities for the youth. More than eight lakh self-employment opportunities have been created in the past five years. We aim to create more than eight lakh self-employment opportunities through the synergy of Central and UT administration schemes.

Besides, nearly nine lakh women are affiliated to self-help groups and special support is being given to the handicraft sector. Handloom and handicraft exports have doubled from 0563 crore in 2021-22 to Rs1,162.29 crore in 2023-24. In the handicraft and handloom sector, 5,682 cooperative societies have been registered in J&K, a massive increase of 1,800 per cent from 2020.

Forty-six new industrial estates are coming up and the New Startup Policy 2024-27 will provide fiscal and non-fiscal support to startups, thus spearheading the rise of Jammu & Kashmir entrepreneurs in the national and global startup ecosystem. The number of startups registered with the department for promotion of industry and internal trade increased to 825 in 2024. A total of 1,600 startups and 269 women-led startups have been registered with the Entrepreneurship Development Institute of India.

Q/ Is the terror theatre shifting from Kashmir to Jammu?

A/ When I first came to Jammu and Kashmir, the terror threat in the valley was a major area of concern for the entire country, and a strategy was formulated to counter it effectively. It is not just statistics, but there are no stone-pelting incidents today and people are leading normal lives. There is a sharp decline in the killings of civilians as well as security personnel. Almost all terror commanders of terrorist groups have been eliminated by security forces. Even the local recruitment is at the lowest levels.

The neighbour (Pakistan) is feeling the heat and anxious after seeing peace, development and the faith in the democratic system displayed during the recent Lok Sabha elections. Pakistan has suddenly become active and is pushing in terrorists. A large number of terrorists are present at launch-pads across both Jammu and Kashmir regions. For the past one and a half years, Pakistan has been trying to create disturbance in the Jammu region, which remained peaceful for almost 15 years.

As peace prevailed, security forces deployed in the upper reaches had been withdrawn over time. It is unfortunate that terror attacks have taken place in the past 3-4 months, claiming lives of soldiers and citizens. The Union home minister is revising the strategy, and the Army, the CRPF and the J&K Police are strengthening their deployment in upper reaches. I am hoping there will be a turnaround in the terror situation in Jammu in the next three months.

Q/ Has fresh infiltration taken place, resulting in terror attacks in Jammu?

A/ It is true that infiltration has taken place both in the Jammu and Kashmir regions. The recent encounter in Anantnag was the direct fight between security forces and terrorists at nearly 10,000 feet. The terrorists are trying to take advantage of the heights, but we are confident that our security forces will be successful. When there was ceasefire between India and Pakistan, people on both sides benefited, but the neighbour became unhappy. Security forces have noticed the use of tunnels and nullahs to send in terrorists. Pakistan is unable to provide any facilities to its people on the other side of the border and is trying to create disturbance here to deflect attention. We have defeated their designs in the past and will give an adequate response. We are not just doing a headcount of terrorists, but dismantling the entire terror ecosystem by identifying those who are lending logistic and financial support to terrorists. We have sacked more than 70 government employees who were part of this ecosystem.

Q/ The Union government has given more powers to the LG. There is concern that the powers of the elected chief minister will be diminished.

A/ There is no truth in it because these powers were already there in the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019. It was enacted by Parliament and has the stamp of the Supreme Court. People who take oath on the Constitution of India should not raise this question. There has been no amendment because that would have required approval by Parliament. It is just a notification issued by the government. It is not very different from any other Union territory in the country. And if both the elected government and the lieutenant governor work towards peace and progress, how can there be any difference? The elected government will get complete support of the office of the LG if it wants to work towards peace and development of Jammu and Kashmir.

Q/ A similar arrangement in Delhi has seen a constant slugfest between the LG and the elected government.

A/ I would like to remind you that Delhi also had an elected chief minister in Sheila Dikshit for 15 years and there was a period when the Vajpayee government was at the Centre, but there was no clash of any kind. In fact, the transfers and postings of police officers used to happen on the recommendation of Dikshit. I firmly believe that if a fine balance is maintained and the objective is peace, a flourishing economy and the welfare of people, then there should not be any clash.

Q/ Are you concerned about hartals, bandhs and political violence returning to J&K when the political process begins?

A/ If there are protests by common people or political parties in a democratic way and within the tenets of the Constitution, then I have no problem. But if there are actions that endanger the safety, sovereignty and integrity of the country or challenge the unity of the nation, then I will exercise the powers vested in me by the Constitution.

Q/ It is said that the voice of dissent has been crushed in J&K. How will you ensure that people are able to express difference of opinion?

A/ There are many platforms for the voice of the common man to be heard, and his voice is being heard. It is a small section that feels its voice isn’t heard. I would like to take this opportunity to tell people that it is their democratic right to criticise our work if there are deficiencies. Constructive criticism is always welcome. But if there is criticism that fuels terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir threatening the unity and sovereignty of the country, then it is dangerous. Freedom of speech is not an absolute right; it requires responsibility as well, and the makers of our Constitution spoke of caution while exercising it. It is only people who want to misuse these platforms who have a problem. The common man has no problem.

Q/ The Lok Sabha elections saw an independent candidate, Engineer Rashid, who contested from prison getting elected. Is there an apprehension that the separatist sentiment is still alive in J&K?

A/ Many seats in the country have seen such people come to power. In our democratic system, there is no way to stop anyone from fighting elections. But sometimes an emotional appeal can become an issue, but those who whip up sentiments to garner votes cannot fool voters for a long time. We also expect voters to understand that when they praise the peace process and want development and progress, they should also remember that if they vote for those who work against that, peace process can never bring success.

Q/ Do you see new leaders emerging in the assembly polls? There are allegations that the Centre may prop up proxies.

A/ I feel some new faces will surely enter the election fray this time. I completely deny that the government is propping up any proxies in the polls. The Lok Sabha elections are proof that the Central government did not prop up any proxies. Otherwise how could these people (like Engineer Rashid) win?

Q/ The proscribed Jamaat-e-Islami is planning to contest the assembly polls. Is a banned organisation allowed to mobilise people during the polls?

A/ There is no law that stops anyone from fighting elections. If Parliament makes a law, then they can be stopped. But until that happens, anyone can fight elections. But the ban will continue and whatever action needs to be taken as part of the implementation of the ban will continue.

Q/ Will statehood be restored in J&K after the elections?

A/ The sequence will remain the same as outlined by the home minister. Statehood will be restored at an appropriate time. Let us wait for an appropriate time.

Q/ What about withdrawal of the Armed Forces (Special) Powers Act?

A/ There have been terror incidents in J&K, but when things return to normalcy we can surely think about it.

Q/ Will the panchayat elections happen next year?

A/ We could have held panchayat and urban local bodies polls earlier but it was important that the reservation for OBCs is implemented. Parliament had to make changes. Now, after the completion of the assembly polls, the elections to the panchayats and urban local bodies can be held. It can happen this year itself if the weather permits.

Q/ What is the way forward for Pakistan-occupied Kashmir?

A/ We have already reserved two seats in the assembly for Kashmiri pandits and one for displaced residents of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The government of India has already taken care of it and the way forward will be decided by New Delhi.

america-ready-to-elect-kamala-harris-because-she-is-the-best-nancy-pelosi

Sat Aug 17 17:22:44 IST 2024

Exclusive Interview/ Nancy Pelosi, Speaker Emerita, United States

Nancy Pelosi opens her latest book, The Art of Power, describing what was perhaps the most traumatic day of her life, personally. It was early in the morning on October 28, 2022, and she was in her apartment in Washington, DC. She was woken up by the Capitol Police and told that her husband, Paul, had been attacked at their home in San Francisco. The attacker had come for Pelosi, to punish her for being the “leader of the pack” against the former president Donald Trump. Paul suffered hammer blows to his head and doctors had to reshape his skull to save his life. Pelosi says she has been struggling with guilt ever since, but the attack seems to have strengthened the 84-year-old leader’s resolve to lead the fight against Trump.

Former speaker of the US House of Representatives, Pelosi, spoke with THE WEEK on August 12 about the Democratic Party’s campaign against Trump in the presidential elections. She sounded upbeat about the chances of Vice President Kamala Harris and said that she looked forward to not being the most powerful woman in American politics after Harris’s victory against Trump. About nudging President Joe Biden to quit the presidential race, she felt that the decision was about winnability. “You make every decision in favour of winning. And I wanted the decision to be as strong as possible,” she said. She also spoke about the legislative records of Biden and Barack Obama, the limits of bipartisanship and the potential of India-US relations. Edited excerpts from the exclusive interview:

Q/In your latest book, The Art of Power, you explain how you famously tangled with Donald Trump when he was president. You were a target, your home was a target, and your husband was attacked. The US is now in yet another election season. Do the scars still remain?

There are scars of trauma on our country when we have political violence. It must be stopped. There are paths that lead up to it that are self-evident, which must be stopped in terms of the politics of personal destruction and the rest, which the Republicans do all the time. Thank you for asking about my husband. He is improving and hopefully when it is two years, which will be at the end of October, we are hoping that he will have made even more progress with his therapy and the rest. But, for our children and our grandchildren, the trauma is not just that he was attacked, but that the Republican former president, his family and the Republican governors thought it was really funny. And that was really traumatising, too, for our family. But forget about them. They are who they are. We had thousands and thousands of messages of love and prayers and thoughtfulness from all over the world. I was at Normandy for the D-Day observance at the beginning of June, and every veteran―these are people in their late 90s or early 100s who had participated in the Normandy invasion to turn around World War II to the Allies’ advantage―asked how my husband was. It was so moving and meant so much to him.

Q/ The Art of Power speaks about your transformation from being a housewife and how you really took up cudgels for women and became the most powerful woman politician in America.

I keep saying to anyone who wants to run for public office, ‘Know your why’. My ‘why’ was that one in five children in America lived in poverty, went to sleep hungry at night. As a mother of five, I found that totally unacceptable. So my volunteerism in the Democratic Party before I even ran for office was motivated by that ‘why’. And I say that to people because this is not for the faint of heart. It is rough out there. And if you don’t know your ‘why’, it is hard to take it. But if you know your ‘why’, you know it’s worth it.

I am not saying that getting your husband hit over the head is worth it, but the slings and arrows that you will receive, politically speaking, make it worth it. The children make it worth it. I never intended to run for office. I was asked to run. I didn’t have any ambition to. People encouraged me to do that. It was a tough campaign, but I won. It was the same running for leadership. I never thought about running, but people encouraged me to do so. And I got tired of losing elections. The Democrats in Congress would lose [the elections in] 1994, 96, 98 and 2000. So I said, ‘Ok, I know how to win elections’. We won. And winning was a very persuasive motivation for me to become speaker of the house.

Q/Yesterday (August 11) you welcomed Vice President Kamala Harris back to California at a fundraiser. You said she brought so much joy and hope. You were the first woman speaker of the US. And now Harris could be the first woman president, the first black woman president and the first Indian American president.

I think the United States is ready to elect Kamala Harris because she is the best. I am very thrilled and I look forward to not being the most powerful woman in politics in America when she will become president of the United States. Now, Kamala happens to be a woman. She happens to be black. She happens to be an Indian American. But she is the best. And that’s why people should be voting for her. That’s why I think she will win. I think that whatever questions people might have about a woman… are completely offset by her excellence.

I know her very well for a long time. She is a person of deep faith, which motivates her public service to care for other people and to do so, again, with liberty and justice for all. She is a person of great strength. She knows her policy. She knows the strategy about it. And she is a fighter for the people.... It has been her motivation always, as district attorney and as attorney general. She is politically very astute. It was hard for her to win the district attorney race, even harder to become attorney general. But she managed that. It got easier to become a senator and the vice president. So she knows why she’s in this. She has served with Joe Biden and produced great change for our country.

Kamala takes great pride in her heritage, her mother being born in India, raised her and gave her great guidance and her African-American background as well. She went to Howard University, which is a historically black university in our country. So she’s always taken pride. And I do believe she will win. We made a decision that we would not elect that other guy to the White House. And President Biden made a decision in favour of Kamala Harris.

Q/You played a key role in persuading President Biden to quit the race. How did you and the Democratic Party manage to convince the president? And has it affected your relationship with him?

I really have avoided answering the question about any conversations I have with the president, and I hope it has not had an effect on our relationship. I have admired him for over 40 years. I wasn’t even in Congress yet when I saw him in action as a senator. So I love him very much. I pray over our decisions that we have to make. I’m sad about some of it, but winning an election is a decision. You make a decision to win and you make every decision in favour of winning. And I wanted the decision to be as strong as possible. He could have decided that he would be the candidate and his campaign would become stronger. He made a different decision. I respect him for that. And then he immediately endorsed Kamala. We had thought that there would be perhaps an open process [to select the new candidate] so that people could see the significant talent that we have. As soon as the president endorsed her, it was an open process. But she won. Kamala is very politically astute. So we are excited about her candidacy.

Q/Your book explains how closely you worked with President Biden. How do you look at his record? Will it help Harris?

We are grateful to the president for being one of the most consequential presidents our country has seen in modern times. He and Kamala together did great things, including creating 15 million jobs. The other guy [Trump] has the worst job creation record since Herbert Hoover, who was president during the Great Depression, whose policies caused the Great Depression. President Biden and Kamala did great things, like the American Rescue Package to save us from Covid. The previous president was in denial and many people died. Joe Biden came in [with] Kamala Harris, shots in the arms, money in the pockets, children safely in school, workers safely back to work. A child tax credit taking over 50 per cent of the children out of poverty. A bipartisan infrastructure bill to create jobs, also having a piece of it to protect our environment from the climate crisis. The CHIPS (Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors) Act and the PACT (Promise to Address Comprehensive Toxics) Act, which addressed the concerns of our veterans who had been exposed to burn pits―a million of them already have had benefits from it. And then the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) to save our planet, $370 billion allocated in public, private and non-profit partnerships to stop the assault on our environment. That bill also reduced the cost of prescription drugs, something we have been trying to do for a long time, but were not able to do because of the power of the industry. But we were able to do it under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

People don’t elect you for what you have done. They elect you for what they hope you will do. So we have some unfinished business about housing, about child care, about family and medical leave. And Kamala puts it forth with great clarity, with great determination, removes all doubt that kitchen table issues of America’s working families will be addressed under her leadership when she becomes the next president of the United States.

Q/The two issues that dominate the elections are abortion rights and immigration. While Harris is strong on reproductive rights, the Republicans have an advantage on border security.

A woman’s right to choose is a personal freedom issue. It is also an economic issue for families―the size, the timing, and if they’re going to have a family or increase the size of their family. So this is something that women and families across America feel very concerned about. When I visited India many years ago, women would say, ‘Please make sure that we have access to family planning’. Of course, India has had a prime minister, Indira Gandhi, so you have led the way in that regard. But I am talking about poor women in the community. In the Congress, we had a bill on the floor that said women had a right to contraception. How many Republicans do you think voted for that? None of them voted for women having the right to choose, but you expect that. That’s what they believe.... Women see who is there in their interest.

Q/What about immigration and the border?

The Republicans made a big mistake when they refused to pass the bipartisan bill [on border security] in the house. It passed in the senate in a bipartisan way. And the senate is hard because you need 60 votes. But they got that. It wasn’t a bill I would have written, but it was a bill that I would accept because it helped solve the problem. And it would be signed by the president of the United States, Joe Biden. The Republicans in the house refused to bring it up. People admit now that that was a big mistake. We know there is a path for us to get to having better policy, that everything with our immigration system is not working the way it should. And Kamala Harris understands that. But she also has been really a leader [who was asked] what are the causes of this migration to the United States? What are the causes in Latin America, for example? She has visited there. It’s about the economy there. It’s about violence there. It’s about the climate crisis. Farmers are not able to farm because of droughts. So they don’t have a job and they don’t have food. So they migrate to the United States. You’d be surprised how many people here are Dreamers―those who came with their families when they were children. We want to be able to say these people are a blessing to us. Immigration is what has made America great. The best speech ever about it was by Ronald Reagan. He talked about America being preeminent in the world because we have newcomers who bring their hope, optimism, courage and determination to make the future better for their families. He said when the door was open, we would remain preeminent. When we close that door, we will not be preeminent in the world.

So we recognise that we are a nation of immigrants. We do have to fix the system so that we have a proper process to accommodate people coming here or just tell them not to come if they don’t meet the standard of coming into our country. But it is a challenge because the Republicans go around saying all these people are crooks and thieves and dangerous. And that’s not what this is about. There have been solutions that the Republicans have rejected. Now what we have to do is win the house so that when we get a bill in the senate, we can pass it in the house of representatives as well. One of the reasons the [Republican-led] house didn’t do it, though, is they didn’t want Biden to have this victory.

Q/In your book, you describe that as speaker of the house, you tried to find common ground with all the presidents you worked with. There were also times when you stood your ground.

My flagship issue, of course, was the Affordable Care Act (the health care reform under president Obama), and that was a challenge because we have regional differences in our country. We’re very diverse. We take pride in that. And we came together in unity to pass this bill.

I mentioned bills with President Biden which were largely passed with Democratic votes. We had 13 [Republican votes] for the infrastructure bill. We had 24 for the CHIPS Act. We had zero for the American Rescue Plan to take us out of the depths of Covid. We had zero Republican votes for the climate and reducing the cost of prescription drugs. So we’ve striven for some bipartisanship, but not always achieving it. But it did not mean that the Republicans don’t benefit from these bills and have not showed up at ribbon cuttings and groundbreakings and celebrations for all these things, even though they voted against it because they didn’t want Biden to have any victories. And same thing with Obama. They are anti-science, they are anti-governance. And that’s a sad testimony, but that’s who they are. And then they are against whoever the Democratic president is. Trump really did not have an agenda because he didn’t believe in science or governance. But we did have to keep the government open. And that meant we had to pass the budget bills. So we had to use our leverage. He said he would take pride in shutting down the government. That was beyond silly. That was dangerous. Nonetheless, that’s what he said. So we had to negotiate to keep the government open. The biggest element in that, though, is the public sentiment. President Lincoln said public sentiment was everything. If you are with it, you can do almost anything, and without it, practically nothing. That is very much a part of how we were able to pass our bills and negotiate with Trump when he was president. There are small examples of how, for example, when he did the Abraham Accords, we were all supportive of that. But he said we couldn’t have anything in the bill that helped anybody globally. And then he came to me and said, ‘We need $700 million for Sudan’. I said, ‘If you want $700 million for Sudan, I need $4 billion for vaccines globally’, mostly for children. So there was a negotiation. I got the $4 billion.

They also wanted money to compensate for what we were losing in their trade agreement charges against China. And they said that we cannot have any money for school lunch programmes. So when we gave them the money to correct what they did with China, I got $8 billion for the children. So, again, you cannot negotiate unless they want something. The one thing they did when they [had the presidency and the Congress] was to pass a bill, a tax cut to get 83 per cent of the benefits to the top 1 per cent, adding two trillion dollars to the national debt. And when we wanted to feed the children, they would say it was going to add to the national debt. Anyway, there’s some of the dynamics of where we could come together, and where we could not.

Q/On India-US ties, despite several areas of convergence, the relationship has not always been very smooth. Can Kamala Harris take care of these challenges?

I certainly hope so. I have always been an admirer of India since I was a little girl and learned about Mahatma Gandhi in the 1950s. America learned a great deal from India on non-violence and from Gandhi’s philosophy. Martin Luther King and his wife, Coretta Scott King, went to India and learned more about that. So we feel that connection to India with great respect for India.

The issues between countries have to be dealt with with respect, not with condescension. When John F. Kennedy became president, I was a student, and I went to his inauguration. He said to the people of America, ‘It’s not what our country can do for you, but what you can do for your country’. The next sentence was that the citizens of the world should not ask what America could do for them, but what [could be done] working together for the freedom of mankind. And that’s what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have been about―respect, not condescension, but cooperation and collaboration. So we learn from each other.

We were just there in India. We visited Prime Minister Modi. It was a very positive visit. We met the Dalai Lama. We thank India for your hospitality to the Tibetans and the Dalai Lama. So we have shared values. But countries act in their interest. From a security standpoint, we have a great deal in common. We just have to have clarity in terms of what the priorities are. Kamala, so proud of her heritage, appreciates the relationship between our two countries. You just have to hear from her because it’s her presidency and her heritage.

We certainly have common ground in many areas and we want to be respectful on how we prioritise the resolution of any differences we may have. We are very blessed with many people from India who are part of the economic success and the values of our country. There are a growing number of people from India in America who have started many successful businesses. So we have a lot to draw upon in terms of that friendship.

―with Ajish P. Joy

nancy-pelosi-says-she-is-happy-to-relinquish-speaker-s-position-in-favour-of-kamala-harris

Sat Aug 17 15:34:55 IST 2024

If you saw my face, I’d be smiling ear to ear,” Nancy Pelosi tells THE WEEK, lighting up the evening sky in India, which is still taking in the euphoria over the chances of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the next president of the United States.

It is 7:15 in the morning on the American west coast (7:45pm in India) as Pelosi, former speaker of the US House of Representatives and one of the leading power centres in the Democratic Party, settles in for an exclusive conversation. Her infectious enthusiasm easily breaks the gap of time, cultures and civilisation as she bonds over shared experiences of Gandhian philosophy that she marvelled at as a little girl and of imbibing the Dalai Lama’s message of peace.

Pelosi’s arena of public service spans continents and hearts, making her one of the most popular world leaders. “Be yourself. Be ready. And know your power,” writes the 84-year-old leader in her new book, The Art of Power, as she prepares to pass on the baton of being a “mother” of her country’s children to her long-time friend Harris. “I look forward to not being the most powerful woman in politics in America when she will become president of the United States,” says the first woman speaker of the house. And as potential president, Harris is unique. “She happens to be a woman. She happens to be black. She happens to be an Indian-American,” says Pelosi. A gush of joy comes through her words.

When Pelosi was elected to the House of Representatives for the first time in 1987, she was one of just 23 women among its 435 members. Most older male members on the Capitol Hill dismissed her as a wealthy housewife from San Francisco, but by hard work and sheer force of personality she rose to the senior leadership of the house Democrats, which had been a male preserve. Her role models were Lindy Boggs, the legendary Congresswoman from Louisiana, and Sala Burton, another formidable Congresswoman from San Francisco. Burton mentored her and asked her to run for her house seat in San Francisco in 1987 after being diagnosed with cancer.

Pelosi has several creditable achievements as speaker. She kept the divided Democrats together to pass the first major health care bill in generations (the Affordable Care Act, 2010); enact groundbreaking reforms on the Wall Street (the Dodd-Frank Act, 2010); she worked with president Obama for a major stimulus package after the 2008 recession (Recovery Act, 2009) and with President Biden for the American Rescue Plan (2021) after the pandemic. Her tenure as speaker included two separate periods―from 2007 to 2011 and from 2019 to 2023. She was the only speaker since the mid-20th century to return to the position.

More important, Pelosi has carried the dream of the American women whose voices continue to echo in her thoughts. “As late as 2001, no woman had ever served in the top leadership of either party in the house,” she writes in The Art of Power. “This fact hit me when I arrived at the White House for my first meeting with President George W. Bush as part of the Democratic leadership. It was a true first. While other women, who had been appointed as cabinet secretaries, had also been seated at the table as full participants, I was there because I had been selected by my colleagues to represent the house Democratic caucus and reflect their views. I was serving at the will of the house Democrats, not at the pleasure of the president.”

Today, in the loving companionship of her husband and children and well-wishers across geographies, Pelosi has fulfilled the dream of the early suffragists by having a seat at the high table of American politics, and has played a key role in transforming the country’s political landscape. She opposed the Iraq War launched by George W. Bush, earned the China-baiter tag by fighting for human rights and led epic struggles to respond to the 2008 financial crisis, to combat AIDS, to ensure LGBTQIA+ rights and to make affordable health care every citizen’s right.

“There is a spark of divinity in every person that needs to be respected,” she writes, quoting the late John Lewis, legendary civil rights leader and Congressman. And if we ever wondered what Pelosi’s favourite word is, she simply says it is “the Word”, which represents Christ. “Christ participating in our humanity enabled us to participate in His divinity―hence the spark.” Pelosi says its essence has shaped her journey into public service and continues to define her bold decisions and fighting spirit.

The fighting spirit was clearly on display when she weighed in on the candidacy of President Joe Biden for a second term and convinced him to stand down. On July 5, Biden gave an interview to George Stephanopoulos of ABC, primarily to address concerns about his disastrous debate on June 27. The president was categorical that he was not bowing out of the race. “If the Lord Almighty came down and said, ‘Joe, get out of the race,’ I’d get out. But the Lord Almighty is not coming down,” said Biden.

Less than a week later, the president felt the full force of the Democratic establishment hit him, in the form of Pelosi―not quite the Almighty, but in the Democratic Party, it was really close. Once she was convinced that Biden was unlikely to defeat Trump, and that his presence on top of the ticket could sink vulnerable house and senate candidates, Pelosi felt that it was time for Biden to go. On July 10, she appeared on Morning Joe, the MSNBC talk show that Biden watches regularly, and said that his candidacy was not a settled issue. And she said the president needed to make a decision quickly.

Biden resisted as long as he could, but Pelosi continued to work behind the scenes to persuade the president to quit, but she remained respectful, never once publicly offending him. He finally took the hint and quit on July 21.

Pelosi says she will not speak about any conversations she had with the president on the issue. She loves and admires Biden, Pelosi adds, but winning matters the most. “You make a decision to win and you make every decision in favour of winning. And I wanted the decision to be as strong as possible,” she says about Biden stepping down. Pelosi, meanwhile, is hopeful that the chain of events has not had an impact over her four-decade-long friendship with Biden. “I hope it has not had an effect on our relationship,” she says. “I love him very much.”

After remaining silent for three weeks, Biden opened up about his decision to quit in an interview with CBS News on August 11, and he named Pelosi as a decisive influence. “A number of my Democratic colleagues in the house and senate thought that I was going to hurt them in the races,” he said. “And I was concerned if I stayed in the race, that would be the topic. You’d be interviewing me about ‘Why did Nancy Pelosi say…’ ‘Why did so-and-so…’ And I thought it’d be a real distraction.”

Pelosi is confident that Harris is the best person to take on Trump, although many senior Democrats, including herself, had initially favoured an open process to select the new candidate. She says Harris proved to be politically astute, quickly sewing up the Democratic race.

THE WEEK’s conversation with Pelosi revealed that the urge to replace Biden with a more winnable candidate also flowed from her desire to protect the children and the people from the misadventures of Trump. “We made a decision that we would not elect that other guy to the White House,” she says. And, some of it comes from her first-hand experience of the political violence on Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021 that left “scars of trauma” on her country. For instance, The Art of Power speaks about the attack on her home and husband by a deranged Trump supporter months later. What has perhaps troubled her even more was the fact that Trump continues to trivialise the near-fatal attack.

On the policy front, Pelosi is convinced that Trump is clueless and ignorant, and that he did not believe in science or governance. She recollects a conversation she had with him when he was president. Trump told her that he was proud about shutting down the federal government during a showdown with the Pelosi-led house. She says the threat was beyond silly, and also quite dangerous. During the height of the pandemic, Trump was in denial, leading to the loss of more than a million lives. She says his job creation record as president was the worst since the time of Herbert Hoover, who was president during the Great Depression.

“I knew Donald Trump’s mental imbalance. I had seen it up close,” she writes. “His denial and then delays when the Covid pandemic struck, his penchant for repeatedly stomping out of meetings, his foul mouth, his pounding on tables, his temper tantrums, his disrespect for our nation’s patriots, and his total separation from reality and actual events. His repeated, ridiculous insistence that he was the greatest of all time.” No wonder The Art of Power has more than 150 references to Trump, all of them unflattering.

With America facing a make-or-break election, the role of the Congress will come under increased scrutiny, and Pelosi, with her vision and experience could guide the legislative agenda. “When people ask me, ‘What are the three most important issues facing Congress?’ I always answer: our children, our children, our children,” she writes. Children’s health, their education, economic security of their families and a safe environment, including protection from gun violence, dominate her concerns. Not to forget the political violence of which she and her family have been victims.

Her grit and gumption has not been for America alone. When she climbed on board the US Air Force C-40C aircraft, code-named SPAR19, along with five other Congress members on August 2, 2022, to Taiwan, she made history in more ways than one. At one instant, 7,08,000 people were watching her flight, making it one of the most tracked flights in history. China had been raining rockets over Taiwan in the previous days.

Pelosi went ahead with the visit ignoring what she calls “President Xi Jinping’s tantrums” (China sent warships and fighter jets over the Taiwan strait), revelling in the warm welcome offered by thousands of people packing the streets of Taipei. “The city’s tallest building was bathed in light, beaming messages of welcome. I could see the letters U-S-A glowing against the glass as we passed,” recalls Pelosi. China hoped to stare her down, but to no avail.

At the same time, she does not mince words criticising the US habit of ignoring the Chinese government’s religious and ethnic persecution inside its borders, and how Beijing has destabilised other parts of the world. Addressing a major security concern flagged by India, Pelosi writes that China’s sale of missiles and technology to Pakistan and rogue states is a real concern. “When we challenged the executive branch to end that threat to our security, we were told that they punish the buyer of the goods and military equipment, not the seller.” She says the US allowed these violations to happen because they were beholden to corporate America.

A rare global leader to dwell on moral dilemmas, Pelosi confesses her position has often put her at odds with the White House, both under Republicans and Democrats. At times, it has even aligned her with staunch Republicans. “Indeed, one of the strongest expressions of support for my 2022 bipartisan trip to Taiwan came from senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell and 25 other senate Republicans, who immediately issued a statement strongly backing the visit when our plane landed in Taipei,” she writes. “If we as Americans do not speak about human rights in China because of commercial interests, then we lose all moral authority to speak about human rights abuses in any other country in the world.”

While her relationship with China has never been smooth, Pelosi speaks warmly about India and is upbeat about flourishing ties under a possible Harris administration, especially on mutually beneficial areas like security. She acknowledges there are also differences, but says that she wants to be respectful while prioritising their resolution. “And that’s what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have been about―respect,” she says. “Not condescension, but cooperation and collaboration.”

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has maintained that India-US relations are proofed against political volatility. But Pelosi’s moral compass can set the tone for the next government in Washington to smoothen out any rough edges with New Delhi as the two countries work together on key priorities of diversifying production, creating new supply chains, collaborating on high-end technology and ensuring peace and stability in the region.

Despite the influence she has wielded over a broad swathe of policy, her superlative fundraising networks and abiding popularity among members of the Congress as well as grassroots Democrats, Pelosi has never considered running for higher office, or accepted a presidential appointment. She says she loves the Congress: “The house of representatives―known as the People’s House―was designed to be close to the people.”

But the speaker emerita has another reason, too. “One of the reasons I love serving the house is that I have the privilege of representing San Francisco. The song of our city’s patron saint, St Francis of Assisi, is our anthem. Make me an instrument of your peace. Where there is hatred let me sow love...” Pelosi definitely knows her ‘why’.

On August 11, she welcomed Harris back to California at a fundraiser, saying she brings joy and hope to the American people. “Kamala is a person of great strength,” Pelosi tells THE WEEK. “She is a person of great faith. She knows her policy. She knows the strategy. And she is a fighter for the people. I always say it is important to know your why. Kamala knows her why.”

The Art of Power

By Nancy Pelosi

Published by Simon and Schuster UK Ltd

Price Rs999; pages 337

nancy-pelosi-has-consistently-called-out-china-s-oppressive-policies

Sat Aug 17 15:36:11 IST 2024

NANCY PELOSI, a name synonymous with resilience and unwavering commitment to human rights, has long been a formidable figure in American politics. Her relationship with His Holiness the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan people is a testament to her dedication to justice and freedom. As someone who has consistently stood up to China, Pelosi has an admirable legacy of courage and tenacity.

Pelosi’s history of challenging China dates back to 1991, when she unfurled a pro-democracy banner in Tiananmen Square, commemorating the victims of the 1989 massacre. This act of defiance was a clear message to Beijing that the US would not turn a blind eye to human rights abuses. Over the years, Pelosi has consistently criticised China’s record on human rights, from the treatment of Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang to the suppression of freedoms in Hong Kong and Tibet.

Pelosi’s connection with the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan cause dates back to the early years of her political career. In 1989, she was one of the first American politicians to meet with the Dalai Lama after he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. This meeting marked the beginning of a long-standing friendship and a shared commitment to the Tibetan struggle for autonomy and human rights. One of the most poignant moments in Pelosi’s advocacy for Tibet came in 2008, during the Beijing Olympics. Despite the potential diplomatic fallout, she led a congressional delegation to Dharamsala, the seat of the Tibetan government-in-exile. There, she met with the Dalai Lama and expressed her solidarity with the Tibetan people. Her visit was a bold statement against China’s human rights abuses and a clear message that the world was watching.

She has consistently used her platform to call out China’s oppressive policies and to advocate the rights of the Tibetan people. In 2007, she played a crucial role in the passage of the Tibetan Policy Act, which aimed to support the preservation of Tibet’s unique religious, cultural and linguistic heritage. During a visit to Tibet in 2015, she and her delegation were closely monitored by Chinese authorities. Despite the restrictions, Pelosi managed to meet with local Tibetans and hear their stories of resilience.

Pelosi’s role in world affairs extends beyond her advocacy for Tibet. As the first woman to serve as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, she has been a trailblazer for women in politics. Her leadership during critical moments, such as the passage of the Affordable Care Act and the impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump, has cemented her reputation as a formidable and principled leader.

Her stance on China has been particularly noteworthy. Pelosi has been a vocal critic of China’s human rights record, its aggressive territorial claims and its influence on global affairs. She has consistently called for a tougher stance on China, advocating policies that promote human rights and democratic values.

Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022 was a significant moment in her career and in US-China relations. Despite warnings from Beijing and even caution from the Biden administration, Pelosi proceeded with her trip, emphasising the US’s unwavering support for Taiwan’s democracy. Her visit was met with strong condemnation from China, which conducted large-scale military exercises in response. This move was seen by many as a bold statement against China’s increasing assertiveness in the region.

Pelosi’s achievements in a male-dominated field are even more remarkable as she has consistently stood up to powerful adversaries. She has shattered glass ceilings and paved the way for future generations of women leaders. Her ability to navigate the complexities of international politics while maintaining her commitment to human rights and justice has made her a significant figure in world affairs.

The author is the son of Gyalo Thondup, the Dalai Lama’s elder brother and his former personal representative to China. He lives in Taiwan.

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Sat Aug 10 14:50:15 IST 2024

Let us begin by citing a book called When Poetry Ruled the Streets by Andrew Feenberg and Jim Freedman documenting the experience of the French student movement of 1968. The authors were passionate participants in the movement in Paris that was met with brute force by the French state. Their account is infused with the reasoned emotional efforts of the students to kindle political awareness in society. Our contemporary history bears witness that youth and student activism has played a crucial role in questioning authority, demanding accountability, and advocating for a more just society. This tradition of dissent has been a powerful force, whether in the freedom movement or the more contemporary challenges and social injustices across the globe.

During the Swadeshi Movement in 1905, institutions like the Presidency College in Calcutta and Fergusson College in Pune became the important nodes of revolutionary ideas and activities. The Non-Cooperation Movement (1920-1922) saw widespread participation from students, who boycotted British educational institutions, opting for national schools and colleges instead, such as the Kashi Vidyapeeth and Jamia Millia Islamia.

The fervour of student activism did not wane after independence. The 1960s and 1970s were notable for student protests addressing issues ranging from educational reforms to political corruption. Seeking to address deep-seated, socioeconomic inequalities, the Naxalbari movement, emerging in the late 1960s, drew significant student support. During the Emergency, the Navnirman Andolan in Gujarat and the Bihar Movement, led by socialist leader Jayaprakash Narayan, were fuelled by student participation. These movements played a crucial role in mobilising public opinion against authoritarianism, eventually leading to the restoration of democracy. It was the student leaders emerging from these agitations who defined the contours of Indian politics for almost four decades that followed.

It is often suggested by conservative voices that politics has no place in an institution of learning. However, I believe that student politics is a mark of excellent education. After the regimented environment of school, college or university gives young people a newfound freedom paired with significant accountability. This autonomy requires them to make and own their decisions, fostering personal growth. They learn not only from academics but also from interaction with diverse peers. These interactions and experiences cultivate curiosity, sensitivity, and responsiveness to societal issues. Energised and idealistic, students develop a respect for difference and harmony, environmental concerns and social justice. This fertile ground of intellectual and personal growth naturally extends into political activism, with students championing democratic values and mobilising against inequality, discrimination and injustice, thereby becoming crucial drivers of social and political change.

The French student movement, often referred to as May ‘68, opposed traditional authority structures, both within universities and in society at large. Starting at the University of Paris at Nanterre, the movement quickly spread because students’ radical demands for participatory democracy and social equality resonated with workers, leading to a general strike that brought the country to a standstill. This is reminiscent of the protest of Jamia Millia Islamia students against Citizenship Amendment Act 2019, sparking a wider movement of Muslims against discrimination. It is in the same vein that students on US campuses protested against the Vietnam War or the apartheid. More recently, students organised sit-ins demanding that their universities divest from companies that support or uphold Israeli occupation of Palestine and called for a ceasefire. The resonances of student movements or students sparking wider movements are many.

Students are often the first to observe and articulate the discontent of society. They do not struggle to improve their own conditions only. Allied with peasants and workers, they have risen up for the recognition and strengthening of civil rights, they have been rallying against authoritarianism, and they have been at the forefront of social justice movements. This is what a student who has learnt well is expected to do by professors who teach well and aim to shape students into knowledgeable, skilled, sensitive and brave individuals who can live autonomously, with dignity and confidence. When combined with a wish to lift others from limiting circumstances, these qualities are the hallmark of a good leader.

What is distressing is that instead of listening to students, petty institutional administrators as well as the state seek to criminalise their wholly democratic, peaceful and deeply ethical protests. The students have had to pay a heavy price. Police and vigilantes unleashed violence against them and many have had to face suspensions and bogus criminal cases. Some of the best minds of our times are spending precious years of their youth behind the bars, if not making endless humiliating rounds of the courts. Others became victims of what has been rightly called institutional murder.

If pummelling young people into silence is anyone’s idea of politics or governance, then it betrays a deep sense of insecurity. Intimidating students into timid and submissive individuals is a recipe for disaster.

The situation in neighbouring Bangladesh is instructive. The immediate ‘trigger’ is an issue which signals exhaustion and impatience of students with having to compete for a piece of a small pie.

Looking at student action from across the world, including India, I can confidently say that young people have taken their role as citizens very seriously and have played a huge role in outlining the contours of a just and peaceful society.

Jha, a Rajya Sabha member, is the national spokesperson for the Rashtriya Janata Dal, and professor, the University of Delhi.

india-could-now-face-renewed-challenges-in-the-northeast

Sat Aug 10 11:18:08 IST 2024

The developments in Bangladesh caught many governments by surprise, but it left a nagging concern for Indian diplomacy. Did India play its cards wrong by giving unflinching support to Sheikh Hasina despite the sentiment in Bangladesh against her autocratic policies? Was Indian diplomacy and strategic policy execution outpaced by the developments? Hasina’s exit symbolised the failure of a major Indian initiative to retain a friendly relationship with Bangladesh.

A new regime that possibly could be inimical to Indian interests could create a situation similar to the Line of Control-Line of Actual Control, resulting in a huge diversion of men and material to guard the borders. Moreover, the narrow ‘Chicken’s Neck’stretch that connects the Indian mainland with the northeast would be very vulnerable from the military point of view. It was Hasina who had cracked down on the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) insurgents who had sneaked into Bangladesh after being evicted from Myanmar and Bhutan.

Anup Chetia, general secretary of the pro-talks ULFA faction told THE WEEK: “The Hasina government’s crackdown from 2009 was singularly responsible for the ULFA leadership to come to the negotiating table with the Indian government. It may not have happened otherwise.”

Now the situation in Bangladesh could raise the bargaining power for the Paresh Baruah-led ULFA faction, which is against talks and is holding out from the jungles along the India-Myanmar border.

Insurgency from Manipur could see a spurt as well. One reason why the Meitei-dominated United National Liberation Front (UNLF) surrendered in hundreds in November 2023 and inked a ceasefire agreement with the government was the loss of safe havens in civil war-wracked Myanmar. Bangladesh could now become a new sanctuary for the anti-talks faction of the UNLF and other disgruntled elements. An exodus of mainly Hindus and Buddhists from Bangladesh to the northeastern states may pose another challenge.

The release of rightist Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader Begum Khaleda Zia from jail and the likely return of her son Tarique Rahman make matters more challenging for India. BNP is closely allied with the Pakistan-backed Jamaat-e-Islami.

Veena Sikri, former Indian high commissioner to Bangladesh, said that the regime change in Bangladesh was carefully planned for a long time and the student movement was a mere vehicle. “Till July 15, the student movement was completely peaceful. Hasina had accepted the demands of the students,”she said. “But things took a turn for the worse after the Jamaat-e-Islami, the Islamic Chhatrashibir and top BNP leaders took over the movement. As for the army, we always knew there was a strong Jamaat cell in the army.”

Sikri also pointed to Hasina’s recent China visit, which was cut short apparently because she was upset with Beijing’s failure to keep its promise of financial aid and at the “lack of appropriate protocol”accorded to her.

“I was puzzled why it happened because China doesn’t do this. Now I know the answer. Because they had decided to wipe their hands off Hasina,”said Sikri. “So it goes much deeper.”

Without doubt, India’s ‘neighbourhood first’policy, which has been the BJP-led NDA government’s vital diplomatic plank, is in for a serious reverse. The latest developments also put into question the prospects of the ‘India-Bangladesh Shared Vision for Future’ agreement signed during Hasina’s visit to Delhi in June.

instability-in-bangladesh-with-eager-foreign-players-ready-for-a-role-is-not-in-india-s-interest

Sat Aug 10 11:17:12 IST 2024

Sheikh Hasina left Dhaka with no option but to resign and leave the country. The military chiefs gave her an ultimatum that they were not willing to enforce the curfew and would not fire on the protesters. The chaotic situation, arising from students’ protesting government job reservation, had snowballed into a political agitation demanding Hasina’s resignation. The chiefs arranged security and logistical support for her to go to the president, tender her resignation and fly out of the country in 45 minutes.

The military’s role in refusing to clamp down on the violence encouraged the political cadres of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). Did the military chiefs decide on this course of action because the rank and file of the defence forces, belonging to the younger generation, had turned against Hasina? The military chiefs might have come under internal pressure to act as they finally did. An anti-Hasina social media campaign by retired military officers also queered the pitch for the chiefs. Questions are being raised by observers who are wondering if the army chief, married to Hasina’s second cousin and appointed by her, turned against her for political reasons or the pressure of circumstances. There have been changes in the army leadership with one general being sacked and several others transferred.

In 2007, the then army chief had tried to implement the so-called ‘Minus Two’ formula in which the military-backed caretaker government took over, following nationwide chaos fomented by fighting among political cadres of the main political parties. The formula was meant to exile the two “warring begums” (Hasina and BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia) and nurture a new leadership. Then Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was encouraged to promote a new political party. That effort failed and led to enduring bitterness between Hasina and Yunus. When Hasina returned to power in 2009, she foisted hundreds of cases against Yunus, and much of his time was spent in the courts.

Yunus is in the news again as the head of the interim government, following a demand raised by the student leaders. He is internationally known and has close ties with many western countries and India. He is not a professional politician and does not have experience in running a government and will require help from his cabinet members who are likely to be retired professionals from various fields. Some comments made by Yunus saying he was hurt by India’s calling the events in Bangladesh as its “internal matter” and why India supported Hasina and allowed her to come to India reflect his bitterness towards Hasina. As the head of the interim government, he has bigger challenges ahead for which India will be willing to help.

Hasina was the longest serving prime minister of Bangladesh and the longest serving woman prime minister internationally. It is surprising that with her political experience she misjudged and mishandled the student’s agitation. Misguided policies by the government in the form of instructing the Chattra League (student wing of Awami League) to attack the protesters, permitting the police to use firearms and derogatory remarks added fuel to the violence. If this decision had not been taken and if they had expedited the Supreme Court decision, the students would have accepted the judgment and called off the protest.

But the violence and around 200 deaths had ignited a fire which spread rapidly. It was too tempting an opportunity for Hasina’s political opponents. The BNP and the JeI have been smarting from being excluded from power for more than 15 years and they capitalised on the students’ protests successfully. JeI cadres from the Islami Chhatra Shibir, its students’ wing, the Jatiyobadi Chhatra Dal, the BNP’s students’ wing, Hefazet-ul Islam’s madrassa students poured into the streets and caused mayhem. Such violence must have been planned for quite some time and these cadres are trained for such violence. What began as a genuine students’ protest mutated into a violent political agitation to overthrow the government.

Several months ago, Hasina had said in an interview that “conspiracies” had been planned to topple her government and expressed fears that she could be assassinated like her father and family members. She also said that a “white man’s” plot was afoot to carve a “Christian country” out of Bangladesh and Myanmar and she was told that no one would oppose her election in January 2024, if she allowed a foreign country to build an airbase in Bangladesh. What she had in mind is not clear, but she was obviously perturbed about some information that led her to make this public.

After Hasina’s ouster, speculation has intensified about a foreign-based regime-change conspiracy. Pakistan’s ISI’s role has cropped up and so has the name of Tarique Rahman, Khaleda’s son and political successor, living in exile in London since 2007 and the JeI. American nudging and Chinese funding have also been mentioned in media reports. Social media monitors have reported a steady flow of adverse information and comments mostly from handles in western countries and Pakistan.

Hasina and Pakistan never got along and Pakistan blamed her for decimating the JeI leadership which functioned as its fifth column in Bangladesh and collaborated with the genocidal Pakistani army during the Liberation War of 1971.

The statements issued by Islamabad after Hasina’s ouster are noteworthy for their warmth. The US spokesperson called the protests “lawful” and patted the army for abjuring force. There was no censure of the military takeover. The US would be happy that finally it has achieved what it had set its sights on―regime change via its proxy Pakistan. Evidence of American encouragement to Pakistan are apparent in the red carpet treatment to the Pakistan army and ISI chiefs a few months ago. The doubling of the tranche of IMF loan and $100 million in bilateral economic assistance show that carrots were on offer if Pakistan played ball. Pakistan played ball with Tarique Rahman and BNP/JeI supporters in the diaspora and in Bangladesh. Ironically, in a way, Pakistan, China and the US, allies that opposed the creation of Bangladesh, are again on the same page.

For India, the immediate issues are managing the safe return of its citizens, stopping the violence against Hindus and managing border security. Instability in Bangladesh is not in India’s interest. It will impact trade, travel, investments and economic growth. We can expect to see a quick engagement with the interim government once it is in place to assess the situation. Bangladesh has entered an unstable transition phase, increasing India’s neighbourhood challenge.

The author was high commissioner to Bangladesh.

violence-after-hasina-s-exit-takes-bangladesh-away-from-the-liberal-ethos-advocated-by-its-founders

Sat Aug 10 11:15:51 IST 2024

This will be a new Bangladesh and it will be free of any fascist rule. The state will not fire on its students, and every citizen will have equal rights,” Bin Yamin Mollah, a student leader told THE WEEK from Dhaka. He is one of the coordinators of Students Against Discrimination (SAD), the anti-government movement which forced prime minister Sheikh Hasina to quit and escape to India.

The roots of the ongoing student movement lie in the protest against the quota system, which has been going on since 2018. The students rose in revolt against the system that reserved 56 per cent of government jobs for various groups, including 30 per cent for the families and descendants of veterans of the 1971 war of independence against Pakistan. This forced the Hasina government to abolish the entire system. But, in June this year, the Bangladesh high court restored the quota, igniting a new wave of protests nationwide.

Starting from Dhaka University on July 1, students from across the country joined the protests. On July 15, the protests turned violent when members of the Bangladesh Chhatra League, the student wing of Hasina’s Awami League, allegedly attacked protesters on the Dhaka University campus.

As the situation escalated, the government responded brutally, resulting in the deaths of more than 200 people. Internet was blocked, curfew was imposed and protesters were allegedly shot by government forces and attacked by the ruling party cadres in broad daylight. Hasina, on the other hand, blamed the banned Jamaat-e-Islami and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the main opposition party, for the clashes.

The harsh action against students highlighted the authoritarian nature of the Hasina administration and ignited longstanding socio-political and economic discontent among various sections of society. Starting from July 16, the anti-quota movement evolved into a broader uprising against the Hasina government.

“Ultimately, the movement was not limited to student protests,” said Raheed Ejaz, correspondent of the Bangladeshi daily Prothom Alo. “It became a movement against inequality, lack of employment, shrinking spaces to voice dissent and the absence of power to exercise franchise.”

The protests briefly paused after the supreme court reduced the reservation for the descendants and families of independence war veterans to 5 per cent on July 21. Student leaders demanded an apology from the prime minister and the removal of ministers who had insulted the protesters. The government responded by arresting over 10,000 people, including six student leaders.

It is alleged that these leaders were coerced to give a call for ending the movement, leading the SAD to initiate a non-cooperation movement on August 3. The protesters had a single demand: the resignation of the prime minister. On August 4, Bangladesh experienced widespread violence, with clashes occurring in several locations and resulting in the deaths of at least 97 people, including 14 police officers. Thousands of protesters took to the streets, engaging in fierce confrontation with the police and Awami League workers.

On August 5, with protesters on their way to her residence Ganabhaban, Hasina resigned and fled. “The success of this mass movement is a reflection that people were not ready to accept the fascist regime of Sheikh Hasina any longer,” said Asad Bin Rony, a student leader associated with SAD. “Now we will build a Bangladesh which our forefathers envisioned, where everyone will be equal.”

However, the scenes that have been unfolding after the exit of Hasina may take Bangladesh far from where its founders wanted it to be. An unruly mob attacked and looted the prime minister’s residence, desecrated Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s statues, vandalised the parliament building and set ablaze cultural institutions such as the Bangabandhu Memorial Museum and the Indira Gandhi Cultural Centre in Dhaka. The lawlessness led to the deaths of more than 130 people on August 5, making it the deadliest day of violence so far during the ongoing crisis.

“This is a revolution. People must not confuse it with normal power transition. The former prime minister didn’t leave her seat peacefully on normal terms,” said Mollah. “Right now, we don’t have people in key positions of the administration. As a result, the law and order situation has gone out of control. The interim government will soon take charge and peace will be restored.”

But even after President Mohammed Shahabuddin, SAD representatives and three service chiefs jointly decided to have Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus as head of the interim government, the law and order situation continues to deteriorate. Army chief Waker-uz-Zaman’s appeal for peace seems to have little effect as the country’s institutions, too, have came under severe attack.

A section of the protesting students have already voiced their concerns. “People are still getting killed. Minorities are also being attacked. This is not what we wanted when we started our movement,” said Mohammed Moajjam Hossain, another SAD coordinator. Students alleged that the violence and vandalism of the last two days were carried out by Awami League cadres. “They are doing this to tarnish the image of our movement so that they can win back popular support,” said Mollah.

These developments have raised the question whether the students have failed to keep control of the movement among themselves. “There is every chance that other elements have joined this movement,” said Ejaz, the journalist. “What we have seen on streets across the country is that families, juveniles and the elderly joining the movement. So, of course, the elements [opposition political parties and extremist religious outfits] are there. This is the reason we are seeing this vandalism and violence.”

Ejaz said the liberal ethos and secular values on which Bangladesh was founded could be put under further threat if mob violence did not stop.

bangladeshis-are-banking-on-nobel-laureate-muhammad-yunus

Sat Aug 10 11:14:59 IST 2024

When the protesting students approached Muhammad Yunus to head the interim government in Bangladesh, the Nobel laureate had several examples he could turn to while weighing his options. While French philosopher Jean-Paul Sartre had declined to be a leader of the 1968 students and workers-led movement, Russian author Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn refused to pursue presidency in the post-Soviet Union era because he preferred an authoritarian regime with traditional Christian values. Author Vaclav Havel, though, went the other way. He accepted the offer to become president of Czechoslovakia after the Velvet Revolution in 1989.

Yunus followed in Havel’s footsteps, and became the formal head of the interim government. This decision was made during a meeting at Dhaka’s Bangabhavan, the residence of President Mohammed Shahabuddin. The meeting was attended by representatives from Students Against Discrimination (SAD), the group that led the anti-Sheikh Hasina movement, as well as three military chiefs of Bangladesh, two Dhaka University professors and two liaison committee members.

At 84, Yunus, the founder of Grameen Bank, is being seen as the ideal candidate to fill the power vacuum and lead the country out of the crisis, resulting from the resignation of former Prime Minister Hasina and the eventual dissolution of her government. “He is acceptable among every section of society,” a Dhaka University professor, who was part of the meeting at the president’s residence, told THE WEEK on condition of anonymity. “He is a Nobel laureate and will help Bangladesh in restoring its international identity. His community development bank’s microcredit and microfinance initiatives have had a positive impact on the lives of the poor.”

Born in 1940 in the Chittagong district of undivided Bengal Presidency, Yunus was the third of nine children, and went to Chittagong Collegiate School. “We are very happy that Dr Yunus has been chosen to lead us,” Muhammad Sirajul Islam, the proud principal told THE WEEK. “We are confident that he will do everything needed for the welfare and development of Bangladesh.”

After completing his master’s in economics at Dhaka University, Yunus briefly worked as a lecturer before receiving a Fulbright scholarship in 1965 to pursue his PhD in the US. In 1975, four years after Bangladesh gained independence from Pakistan, he returned with the determination to alleviate poverty in his country.

The Bangladesh famine of 1974 greatly influenced Yunus. After personally lending $27 to 42 women in Bangladesh, the idea of microcredit occurred to him. He started the Grameen Bank in 1983 with the idea of disbursing small loans to the poor in Bangladesh without collateral.

Currently, Grameen Bank operates in 94 per cent of Bangladeshi villages, serving almost 4.5 crore people. As per its website, the bank has loaned more than $38.6 million to 1.06 crore borrowers, 97 per cent of them women. Yunus’s microcredit movement has since spread to more than 100 developing countries. His efforts made him the first from his country to win a Nobel Peace Prize in 2006. Today, he is known worldwide as the ‘Banker to the Poor’.

He has received numerous other prestigious awards and honours, including Presidential Medal of Freedom (the highest civilian award in the US) and the Ramon Magsaysay Award. Additionally, he was a founding member of The Elders, a group Nelson Mandela formed to address global challenges. A vocal critic of Hasina, Yunus has also encountered several corruption charges. Among these allegations is the claim that Grameen Bank aggressively collected loans from impoverished rural women. His supporters contend that he has been singled out because of his opposition to Hasina.

Bangladeshis are now banking on him. “The world viewed Bangladesh’s growing economy very positively. But they failed to realise the prevailing inequality in our country,” Asif Mahmud, a coordinator of SAD, told THE WEEK from Dhaka. “We are confident Dr Yunus’s policies will direct us to a better future where inequality will lessen.”

Generally, interim governments in Bangladesh have consisted of non-partisan members who were ineligible to run for office. However, in 2007, on the intervention of the army, an extra-constitutional military-backed caretaker government was formed, which ruled Bangladesh without legitimacy. People of Bangladesh are hopeful that the Yunus-headed government will not be influenced by the army, political parties or religious outfits. “I don’t think the army on any other group can influence the interim government much,” academic Rasheda K. Chowdhury, who was an adviser to the caretaker government led by Fakhruddin Ahmed from 2007 to 2009, told THE WEEK. “This is mainly because this time we are seeing a transition of power that is completely overseen by students, who are not like previous generations.”

the-daily-star-journalist-mahfuz-anam-interview-bangladesh-protests-political-crisis

Wed Aug 14 17:32:02 IST 2024

Interview/Mahfuz Anam, editor and publisher, The Daily Star

Bangladesh added yet another chapter to its turbulent political history on August 5 with the overthrow of the Sheikh Hasina government. Most reports suggest that it was triggered by a popular uprising led by students against the 30 per cent reservation in government jobs for relatives of veterans who fought in the 1971 independence war against Pakistan. The opposition, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the Jamaat-e-Islami also seem to have played a role in overthrowing Hasina, who was in power for the past 15 years. The army, meanwhile, stayed neutral, refusing to come to the aid of the government. With the prime minister ousted and the parliament dissolved, Bangladesh will be led by an interim government headed by Nobel winning social entrepreneur and banker Muhammad Yunus.

Describing the evolving situation, Mahfuz Anam, editor and publisher of The Daily Star, one of the leading newspapers in Bangladesh, told THE WEEK that despite Hasina’s ouster, Bangladesh would not transform into a fundamentalist country. He said Hasina became unpopular as she started manipulating elections and stifling dissent. On ties with India, Anam pointed out that the overall impression in Bangladesh was that New Delhi had been a great supporter of the Hasina government and that it ignored the bigger picture. He wants India to look at the ongoing crisis through the prism of democracy. Edited excerpts from the exclusive interview:

There is an argument that many people in Bangladesh believed that the Sheikh Hasina government was not an elected one because opposition parties boycotted the January elections. Is the crisis a reaction to that?

The story has to be segmented. One is Sheikh Hasina's continued rule for 15 years. No other government has ever ruled Bangladesh for 15 continuous years. That gave us stability and uninterrupted economic growth. But on the political side, it has been a story of decreasing space for opposition and dissent. After getting elected in a landslide in 2008, Hasina started manipulating elections. The elections in 2014 were extremely questionable, so were the elections of 2018, and also this January. It seemed like she had mastered the art of manipulating elections and came to the conclusion that she could get away with it. When you concentrate so much power in your hands, you are likely to antagonise a lot of people and make a lot of mistakes.

Second, her handling of the student movement was absolutely disastrous, inexplicable. A party like the Awami League—which just celebrated its 75th year—a party that has been a part of democratic movements from the time of Pakistan and was the leading party in our liberation war totally lost touch with the people. And then there was the government narrative that anything anti-government was promoted either by the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party) or by the Jamaat (Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami). This narrative may have been politically convenient, but over time, they became a victim of this narrative themselves.

For about a year, the [protests against quotas] have been going on, and it was peaceful till July 15. Then the Awami League general secretary said that their student wing, the Chhatra League, was enough to handle that. That was a signal to their party goons to come down hard on the students. That was the day the violence started. On the first day, there were six deaths; the second day, 28 deaths. Within a week, at least 200 people were dead. But, [unofficially], the number is much higher, it is 500. Never in the history of Bangladesh, or in the history of the subcontinent, that within a week, a civilian government through police [action] had caused 200 deaths. By then, the government had accepted all the demands of the students. But the death of more than 200 people had totally transformed the psyche of the students and the general public.

In our part of the world, when the government is unaccountable, the institutions become monsters. So the police, for example, started harassing people and taking bribes. I will not say that the government [was] directly involved. But not a businessman, a high level police officer or a high level bureaucrat was taken to court for corruption or abuse of power. If something happened in your area and you wanted to lodge a case, the police will not accept it if it was against an Awami League leader. And this has been going on for 15 years.

You say this is a fight for democracy.

It is a fight for democracy, for an accountable government. However, I will not rule out the fact that some political and religious elements may take advantage. India will have its concerns, which is quite acceptable and respected. But India should not see the whole event through the eyes of some Jamaat-e-Islami people or BNP people. You should not see it through the eyes of religion. You should see it through the eyes of democracy.

What next for Bangladesh? How do you see the situation evolving in the next few days?

The students said that this was a chance to rebuild Bangladesh. So, the departure of—in their language—a dictatorial regime is the first victory. Now, it is a chance to reconstruct the country in a more democratic manner. But what do I see for tomorrow and the day after is concerning. Because I really cannot say where our government is. Who do I go to if there is some problem? Will the police come? Who is commanding the police? There is a vacuum there. The president’s statement has been quite vague. The army chief’s statement was quite laudable, but not specific.

What about the future of Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League?

The Awami League is a highly respected traditional party. They lost the plot, their touch with the grassroots. They are, at the moment, a discredited party. But if enough good people come back together, they can revive the party. The popular concept is that we all loved Bangabandhu's (Sheikh Mujibur Rahman) Awami League, but we do not love Sheikh Hasina's Awami League. About Hasina's future, her son has announced that she has no interest in continuing in politics.

After leaving Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina came to Delhi. Did India react appropriately throughout the entire crisis?

A strong relationship with India is necessary for the future of Bangladesh. But India would make a mistake if it looked at the whole event through the narrative of Sheikh Hasina or the Awami League. The relationship must be between the state and the people, not between one government and another. The overall impression in Bangladesh is that India has been a great supporter of Sheikh Hasina's government, which is fine, as you support the government of the day. But India did not pay enough attention to the bigger picture. India didn't really have links with parties or people beyond the Awami League. And as the Awami League's narrative became narrower and narrower, India's view became focused on only one party.

Would you say that India put all its eggs in one basket?

From the outside, it did appear to be so. There is one appeal I would like to make to my Indian friends: seeing some Islamic manifestation, please do not come to the conclusion that we are becoming a fundamentalist country. This is a Muslim majority country. And there are devout Muslims who go to the mosque five times a day. Now, that should not define their whole [worldview], that they are part of an extremist group. If India can become Hindu without becoming non-secular, then why can't Bangladesh accept its Muslim heritage without being looked at with apprehension that this is going to be a terrorist or extremist country? There is a huge segment of Muslims in Bangladesh who believe in a close relationship with India. They are proud of their Muslim identity, just as a Hindu is proud of his Hindu identity.

What about the safety and security of Indian assets in Bangladesh?

At the moment, there is absolutely no threat. I have not heard of any Indian factories or business establishments being [affected].

Do you see the role of foreign powers behind what happened?

Nobody has said that America or India or China is involved. Perhaps you are more concerned about the geopolitics. But, at the moment, we are more concerned about democratising our own society.

But as an editor, do you have any news that there could be some involvement from Pakistan or China, in any way?

In India, Pakistan may be involved, or China may be involved. In Bangladesh, since I'm not in the government or heading an intelligence body, I cannot say yes or no. But you can interpret. For example, America has welcomed the change, so you can interpret that America must be behind it. India has not said anything as of now, [so] India is unhappy about it. But I don't have reasons to write an editorial or a report about foreign intervention based on facts on the ground.

But Sheikh Hasina was close to India.

I sincerely urge the Indian leadership to take a deep look into what Bangladesh is. It is a country of 80 plus per cent Muslims. Globally, there is a rise of Islam. So you can see more mosques in Dhaka, more mosques around Bangladesh. Please do not associate this with the rise of anti-Indianism or extremism. Bangladesh is a rising country, a country which has learned from its own experience. And a good relationship with India is good for Bangladesh. However, your attitude also will determine that. If you are suspicious of this student-led movement, [it could become difficult]. As of now, I am quite convinced that it was based on issues of Bangladesh's importance, not driven by any foreign country. But it is a fluid situation. And you never know, in the coming days or weeks, some manoeuvring may take place.

Sheikh Hasina was in China on July 13, and she had to cut short her visit, apparently upset with Beijing's failure to fulfil its promise of financial support. And the appropriate protocol was not accorded to her. Was this twist in the relationship an indicator of the things to come?

China is not that powerful in Bangladesh. They may give us some aid. But no, these students are not driven by any Chinese, American or Indian agenda.
But commercially, China has a lot of interest in Bangladesh, for instance, in the textile sector.

There are more Indian garments factory owners in Dhaka than there are Chinese. China is a good partner in the ready-made garment sector, but so is India. And here, let me say something to which I give Sheikh Hasina a lot of credit. Before her tenure, if the Awami League was in power, we were totally pro-India. If the BNP was in power, we were totally pro-China. But Hasina could take our relationship with India to a very high level, and also develop our relationship with China a lot.

The Ulfa insurgency in northeast India was crushed primarily due to the proactive measures by the Hasina government. Do you think a new regime would perhaps encourage separatists?

I don't think Bangladesh will go there at all, because it's not good for us. For example, there are insurgents from the Kuki Chin group [in Bangladesh]. They have armed training camps, and they have been talking about carving out a greater homeland for the people of the Chin origin, Christians largely. And we are very worried about it. We will do everything to protect our sovereignty. Helping Ulfa is not going to strengthen our sovereignty.

What about Begum Khaleda Zia? What could be the role for the BNP?

The idea is to have an election, as free and fair as possible, which was not possible under Hasina. We will let the people of Bangladesh express their views through the election.

What final outcome would you prefer and how fast do you want it?

One of the things that have truly hurt me is the failure of all political leaders to strengthen political institutions. We got a chance in 1971, when we became liberated. Then tragedies happened, Bangabandhu was assassinated, and we got the military rule. Then through peaceful public demonstration, we toppled General Ershad. And we got a chance to rebuild the country in 1991. But we shunted out a military dictator, brought democracy back, and today we are handing over bouquets to the military to take Bangladesh back to democracy. What can be more dramatic than this symbolism of the failure of political leaders? The BNP and the Awami League just quarrelled with each other.

When Hasina came to power, she just didn't allow any space for the BNP. So the political culture was maligned. Parliament as an institution was not allowed to function. There was no opposition, it was literally one-party rule. The judiciary as an independent body was not allowed to flourish. The bureaucracy and the police were partisan. Our first priority should be political reforms. Elected representatives being allowed to play the role, parliament becoming an institution of real policymaking, bureaucracy getting its own space, police not becoming a party tool. These are the reforms we urgently need if Bangladesh is to flourish. The Hasina regime had given us a lot of economic growth. But the quality of the education system has gone down. Our students are falling behind in global competition, our public health structure [is not good]. Our roads are full of potholes. Chittagong, our biggest port city, becomes totally inundated with just one or two days of heavy rain. Our banks have been looted. When Hasina took charge, our total default loan was 23,000 crore takas (Rs 16,470 crore). As of now, our default loan is 1,45,000 crore takas (Rs 1,03,900). How could it happen? Big businesses would take money and would not repay. There is enough evidence that these defaulters would actually siphon off their money abroad. International agencies have reported that every year Bangladesh loses anything between $5 billion to $8 billion through money laundering. So these accumulated stories disillusioned people against the Hasina regime. I am sad that a leader like Sheikh Hasina had to relinquish power and leave the country that she worked for. But she made it inevitable.

When do you see the concerns being addressed and things getting back to normal?

I cannot say it right now. I really would like to see Bangladesh stabilise. I am happy that the students have approached professor Muhammad Yunus to be the chief of this transition government. He is an extremely knowledgeable person, highly respected in Bangladesh and abroad.

When you are talking about rebuilding Bangladesh, no progress can happen in isolation. What is the role of your neighbouring countries?

Our neighbour practically is only one. And, therefore, it is very vital that we manage our relationship with India. It has to be a win-win relationship. With this friendship, Bangladesh must win, India must win. We must have a relationship that helps each one of us grow together and independently. I would like to urge that India understands us a little better than understanding us through a single prism.

kamala-harris-is-well-positioned-to-take-the-fight-to-donald-trump-us-presidential-elections-2024

Sat Aug 03 17:35:11 IST 2024

President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid at 1:46pm on July 21, posting a letter on social media from his vacation home in Delaware. At 2:13pm, he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. In those 27 minutes, Harris spoke to nearly a dozen key Democrats, persuading them to back her, and all of them did. At 4:48pm, she filed the first application with the Federal Election Commission about the change atop the Democratic ticket, marking the formal transition of the campaign.

Harris was ready. She was at her Naval Observatory residence in Washington, DC, when Biden told her about his decision to quit. She immediately summoned her team, which had an inkling that something momentous was happening. By the time they called it a day, Harris had contacted more than 100 Democratic stalwarts, including Bill and Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Congressional leaders and, most importantly, her potential rivals for nomination—Governors Gretchen Whitmer, J.B. Pritzker and Josh Shapiro. Her team simultaneously worked the phones to convince convention delegates, numbering around 4,000, who have the mandate to choose the nominee.

In less than two days, Harris won over 3,100 delegates, secured endorsements from prominent Democrats, cleared the field of every serious contender and raised nearly $125 million (approximately Rs 1050 crore). By quickly sealing the nomination, she killed the demand for an open convention, which was said to be preferred by at least a few in the party, including Obama. (Michelle and Barack Obama endorsed her three days later.) Harris has all but clinched the Democratic nomination; technically, she has to wait till the Democratic Party completes its formal roll call of delegates to finalise its candidate, which could happen latest by August 7.

“Harris is really good at clearing fields, at the whole shock and awe thing,” journalist Dan Morain told New York Magazine, explaining how quickly she outmanoeuvred the competition and locked up the nomination. “She is underestimated. She came out of pretty much nowhere to become district attorney (2004). And when she ran for attorney general of California in 2010, she was certainly the underdog.” Harris went on to become a senator and then vice president, defying odds. She now has about 100 days to define herself as a candidate for the general election, develop a voter-friendly policy platform and get her messaging right.

The swift coronation of Harris was also a message to her Republican rival Donald Trump, who sounded upset about the switch. He said it was unfair that he was being forced to start all over again after spending time and money fighting Biden. On social media, he railed that he should be reimbursed for the expenses incurred.

As the race begins to heat up, one of the major advantages that Harris enjoys is that she could inherit much of the existing infrastructure from the Biden campaign. Another factor is, ironically, her age. While it had been the biggest vulnerability for the Democrats with Biden as their candidate, it has now become a weapon they could deploy against Trump, who is now the oldest presidential nominee in American history. “The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the one that wins this election,” former Republican candidate Nikki Haley said in January. Harris is expected to make Trump's age and acuity a campaign issue and she will take heart from the fact that nearly 60 per cent of the voters now say that Trump is too old to serve. She will also benefit from the support of the so-called ‘double haters’—voters who want neither Biden nor Trump.

Some Democrats suggest that they should be somewhat tactful about the age issue, as they had spent months and years defending Biden, but Harris can be really ruthless when she wants to, evident from her swift takeover of the Democratic Party. Ambitious is an adjective that has stuck to her, like burrs to a sari. Some even call her opportunistic. Republicans still talk about her brief, torrid affair with former San Francisco mayor Willie Brown back in the 1990s, which they allege gave Harris her first political opening.

Brown was one of California’s most powerful politicians, while Harris was a 29-year-old up-and-coming prosecutor. He gave her political career a push by nominating her to the California unemployment insurance appeals board and to the medical assistance commission. More importantly, he introduced her to the rich and famous of San Francisco. The connections came handy when she ran for district attorney. She used the opening to make more influential friends, such as billionaire philanthropist Laurene Jobs, the widow of Apple founder Steve Jobs. These networks helped her immensely when she ran for California attorney general in 2010 and 2014, and for senate in 2016.

Harris first got noticed nationally during her tenure as attorney general as she led a campaign on behalf of the Californians who had lost their homes in the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. The Obama administration pushed for a settlement among states, the federal government and the banks over the predatory mortgages. While the banks wanted to offer as little compensation as possible, Obama wanted the crisis to go away, and fast. In January 2011, soon after she took over as attorney general, Harris confronted the Obama administration as she felt that homeowners were being shortchanged. She called the proposed settlement inadequate and walked out of the negotiations.

The Obama White House, which realised that California’s withdrawal would scuttle the whole process, tried its best to woo Harris. She was offered a personal meeting with the president and also an invitation to sit in the first lady’s box for the State of the Union address. She politely declined, took the banks head on, and ultimately won a $20 billion settlement for her state’s beleaguered homeowners. Obama himself praised Harris afterwards. “She is tough, and she is exactly what you'd want in anybody who is administering the law," he said.

Harris's prosecutorial background offers a riveting contrast to Trump, whose life and career has been defined by legal woes and now, felony convictions. The liberal media has already given the contest a ‘prosecutor versus perp’ spin. Harris is certain to milk that image as much as possible. A former prosecutor challenging a convicted felon has been the overarching theme of her first few campaign speeches.

“I know Donald Trump's type,” she told staff and supporters at her campaign headquarters in Delaware on July 23. “Before I was elected as vice president… I was a prosecutor. I took on perpetrators of all kinds. Predators who abused women, fraudsters who ripped off consumers, cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain,” she said. “So, hear me when I say I know Donald Trump’s type. And in this campaign, I will proudly put my record against his.”

Republicans know how tough Harris can get, even when she is not in a courtroom. Memories of the nightmarish grilling of Trump's supreme court nominee Brett Kavanaugh at his senate confirmation hearing in 2018 still linger. As a member of the judiciary committee, Harris led the Democrats in questioning Kavanaugh, who was chosen by Trump from a list prepared by the conservative Federalist Society. Harris had conducted a mock hearing with aides, to be ready for Kavanaugh. She wanted to figure out how best to raise the point about abortion rights, of how unequal was a law that dictated to a woman how to deal with her own body. She finally came up with a straightforward question, “Is there a law that forces a man to do something that he doesn’t want to do with his body?” Her aides did not have an answer, and neither did Kavanaugh.

She was also quite scathing about the White House's handling of the FBI investigation into sexual harassment allegations about Kavanaugh. Trump later said that Harris was extraordinarily nasty to Kavanaugh. “She was nasty to a level that was just horrible,” he said. “And I won't forget that.”

From the way Harris is going ahead with her campaign, women’s rights could be the winning issue for her. “She talks about abortion rights, and she talks about it unapologetically,” Kelly Baden, public policy expert at Guttmacher Institute, which specialises in reproductive rights, told NBC News. Harris is quite comfortable talking about it, unlike Biden, a staunch Catholic, who once said that he was not “big on abortion”.

Harris was the first vice president to visit a clinic run by Planned Parenthood, one of the biggest organisations that provide reproductive health care. She also undertook a tour across the US to champion abortion rights after the supreme court overturned the Roe v Wade judgment, removing legal protection for abortion.

Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice presidential candidate, is known for his extreme anti-abortion and anti-women views, and one could expect fireworks. His past attack on Harris for not having biological children has led to intense backlash. During his senate campaign three years ago, Vance said on the Tucker Carlson show that people without children did not have a direct stake in the future of the United States. “We are effectively run in this country by a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable in their own lives... so they wanna make the rest of the country miserable, too. You look at Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, AOC (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez), the entire future of the Democrats is controlled by people without children.”

In another 2021 talk show, Vance said childless Americans should be taxed at a higher rate. He has endorsed a national abortion ban, the enforcement of the Comstock Act (a dormant law which bans the mailing of drugs and instruments related to abortion) and Ohio's six-week abortion ban. He now averages a net favourability rating of negative 5 per cent across all polls, lower than any vice presidential nominee in history. Many Republicans—some even openly—are wondering whether Trump erred in his VP choice. Vance has tried to walk back some of those extreme positions, but Harris is unlikely to let him get away easily.

Apart from her firm stand on reproductive rights, Harris is expected to play up her multicultural background. In the first few days after Biden’s withdrawal, Democrats have witnessed a surge in polling, critically among independents and people of colour and women, and Harris could carry it forward by retelling her immigrant story. She said she learned the basic lessons of freedom and justice from her parents, Shyamala Gopalan and Donald Harris, immigrant academics who loved a good fight for a just cause.

Shyamala came to the United States in the late 1950s, when she was only 19. She chose the US because as a woman, she could not find a place in a graduate programme of her choice in India or even in the UK. In her memoir, Harris describes her mother as a tough taskmaster, who had no patience for self-indulgence. Her grandmother, Rajam Gopalan, too, was a formidable woman. Back in the 1940s, she used to drive across villages in present-day Tamil Nadu on her Volkswagen Beetle, educating women about birth control. She would chastise men who ill-treated their wives. “We’re all diluted versions of my grandmother,” wrote Harris.

Her grandfather P.V. Gopalan started out as a stenographer, but rose to be a senior civil servant. In June 2023, speaking at a luncheon hosted in honour of visiting Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Harris said her introduction to the concepts of equality, freedom and democracy came from her grandfather, with whom she enjoyed taking long walks on the beach during her visits to Chennai.

The heritage of her father, who belongs to a landowning family in Jamaica, too, has influenced Harris. Although her worldview and political philosophy are markedly different from his radical leftist ideology, she said she inherited his conviction to defend the truth, even the uncomfortable ones.

Her immigrant background clearly helps in opening up new pathways for Harris to win 270 of 533 electoral college votes required to be declared winner. Latest New York Times poll (conducted from July 22 to 24) shows her trailing Trump by just one point nationally (47 per cent to 48 per cent). But she leads Trump among Black voters—78 per cent to 15 per cent—an 8 per cent edge over Biden. Among Hispanic voters, she is up by 47 per cent to 45 per cent, while Biden was trailing by 9 per cent. Harris also finds favour with voters under 35—she leads Trump 47 per cent to 43 per cent. Trump was up against Biden by 7 per cent among this cohort.

Biden had nearly given up on the Sun Belt states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, which he had won last time. His precariously narrow route to the White House was to retain the three Blue Wall states—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

With her background and appeal among blacks, Hispanics, women and youth, Harris seems to have opened up the Sun Belt states, even adding North Carolina to the list. Trump won North Carolina by just 75,000 votes (of the total 5.5 million votes polled) in 2020. It is a margin that the Harris team is confident that she could deal with, especially since over 20 per cent of the state’s population is black. They would take heart from what Obama did in 2008, when he trumped John McCain in the state. North Carolina now has more electoral college votes (16) than Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (15). Similar dynamics are in play in neighbouring Georgia as well, which is more good news for Harris.

Added insurance could come from Arizona and Nevada, where nearly 30 per cent of the voters are Hispanics. Moreover, there could be an abortion rights initiative on the ballot in Arizona, which would aid her. In Nevada, she has extensive connections and a thriving poll machinery. She has been quite active in the state for the past few years, building friendships, networks and coalitions. This year alone, she visited Nevada six times.

WHILE HARRIS has so far enjoyed a smooth ride to the top, a general election presents its own unique set of challenges. One of the obvious problems she faces is her association with Biden. Aligning herself closely with the president may get Harris support from those who approve of his policies and leadership, but it could cost her the support of independents who are dissatisfied with certain aspects of Biden's presidency or who expect a different direction for the Democratic Party. No wonder Harris has already displayed an independent streak in at least two issues—she prefers a more proactive abortion policy and she insists on emphasising the humanitarian cost of the Gaza war.

Second, Republicans will try to portray Harris as the candidate imposed from above, brokered and decided by party elites, without even a mini-primary. Additionally, the lack of a rigorous primary contest experience could pose challenges when facing a formidable opponent like Trump. Primary campaigns typically serve as crucial testing grounds for candidates, allowing them to refine their messaging and demonstrate their ability to connect with diverse voter demographics.

Third, Harris has to brace herself for a barrage of below-the-belt attacks from Trump and his surrogates. He has already called her “dumb as a rock”, "totally unlikeable", a "communist," and a “monster". On July 26, addressing a gathering of religious conservatives in Florida, he accused her of trying to impose radical leftist values on immigration and abortion. At the moment, however, Trump is finding it hard to find a line of attack that sticks, but that doesn't mean that he will stop.

Finally, despite the obvious advantages that Harris enjoys, there are palpable concerns about the swing states—whether she would be able to persuade enough white working class voters who carried Biden past the finish line four years ago. Some Democrats worry that her coalition of the women, black and youth voters may not be enough to offset the loss of support among white men. All her individual electoral wins came in a liberal state where the principal challenge was to win over Democratic elites and progressive voters, not centre-right independents who would determine her fate in the Blue Wall states. She would do well to remember that no California Democrat ever has successfully run for president. Her strategists hope that by selecting the right running mate and by adopting a centrist line on controversial issues, she would be able to outperform Trump.

Four years ago, when Biden chose Harris as his running mate, the pandemic was at its peak, and a Zoom meeting of black women was held to build support for her. It attracted just 90 participants. On the night of July 21, however, an estimated 90,000 black women met online in solidarity with Harris. The group, Win With Black Women, mobilised more than 44,000 members to attend a Zoom meeting that went on for hours, finishing past 1am. Zoom typically limits the number of participants to 1,000, but a female executive at its office stepped in to expand the capacity. The group wanted to raise a million dollars in 100 days for Harris, but the target was exceeded in about an hour.

The Harris team hopes that such unprecedented enthusiasm from a critical section of the voters could enable her to beat Trump in the election on November 5. Deborah Delgado, a Democratic official from Mississippi, who was on the Zoom call, could not contain her enthusiasm. “I expect the next few months will see a robust campaign by Harris,” she told the Clarion Ledger. “Hopefully, people who have historically not been excited about voting get that excitement which we need, that we just create a movement that is going to make us victorious in November.”

indian-american-voters-are-jumping-on-to-the-lotus-potus-bandwagon

Sat Aug 10 15:33:34 IST 2024

KAMALA HARRIS, TILL now a heartbeat away from the presidency, could well become the first American president of Indian origin. In the past, there had not been much excitement about her candidacy, but once President Joe Biden 'anointed' her his successor, it is as if she has been reincarnated. Democrats cannot get enough of Harris, her trademark joyful laugh, occasional goofiness and the stern prosecutorial air.

For Democrats who were shell-shocked by Biden's lacklustre debate performance against Donald Trump, Harris has come as an avenging angel. She is now the Rocky Balboa kind of fighter whose fiery words are pure music to them and they would love to see her take on Trump in a national debate. They, however, know that it is going to be a very close election, especially in the battleground states. The results may be decided by a few thousand votes, so Democratic operatives are keen not to repeat the complacency that cost them the 2016 election when Trump beat Hillary Clinton.

All sorts of groups within the Democratic camp have come together for Harris, including major Indian-American organisations. The Indian American Impact Fund, a progressive group, is supporting her campaign planning the largest ever investment in its history. Said Chintan Patel, executive director of the organisation, “As one of the nation’s foremost leaders on reproductive and women’s rights and one who has championed policies that have helped countless small business owners and entrepreneurs, Harris has shown that she is eminently qualified. She is our best chance to safeguard our democracy and fight Trump and his extreme agenda. South Asian voters can make history by electing the first South Asian, Black and woman president.”

So strong is the excitement about the Harris candidacy that scores of new groups supporting her are cropping up. Apart from South Asians for Harris and South Asian Women for Harris, the latest is South Asian Men for Harris, which was launched with a star cast of noted names. It was initiated by tech wiz and president of SAJA (South Asian Journalists Association) Sree Sreenivasan, historian Manu Bhagavan and social media consultant Neil Parekh and was headlined by no less than Salman Rushdie. The July 27 launch featured many political players, including Congressmen Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois and Ro Khanna of California, and they spoke about the urgency of supporting Harris and the ways to do it; thousands watched on social media and donated funds.

“I absolutely agree it is a critical moment,” said Rushdie. “I am a boy from Bombay. My wife is African-American, so we like the fact that there is a Black and Indian woman running for the White House. But frankly, ethnicity itself is not enough. We would not be gathering in this way, let us say, for Usha Vance or Nikki Haley. We are here because something very extraordinary and transformative has happened in American politics,” said Rushdie. “The conversation has entirely changed with the arrival of Kamala Harris's candidacy... and we have to make that work, because we cannot allow the alternative to happen. This Hollow Man without a single noble quality trying to drag this country towards authoritarianism, that cannot happen.”

Rushdie was asked about the sceptics within the Indian American community who may not believe in the Harris candidacy for a variety of reasons, including the fact that America would not elect a half-Black, half-Indian woman. “I think times have changed... the way in which the race issue can be made a positive is a new thing. And so, I think there is absolutely no reason why Harris should not win... I think the tide is turning.”

Roohi Rustum, national organising director for Harris for President, also stepped in: “Harris in the first 24 hours of our campaign raised the most ever for any presidential candidate, over $81 million (around Rs680 crore). More than 60 per cent of this was from first time contributors. Hundreds of thousands of grassroots supporters are joining Zoom calls... so many people are joining to talk about Harris and how she is ready.”

Neha Dewan, who started out as a volunteer with Harris before she embarked on her presidential campaign, spoke about her association with Harris, “I was a lead volunteer organiser for her in California. I travelled with her to Nevada and Iowa. Now four and a half years later, to think that we are on the cusp of electing her, it is just so incredibly exciting.” Dewan is co-head of South Asians for Harris.

Apart from Indian Americans, people of Pakistani, Sri Lankan and Nepali origin, and members of the Indo-Caribbean communities are also active in supporting Harris. They have joined hands with the Hispanic and other communities of colour in a common fight to safeguard their rights and freedom.

As writers, tech experts, organisers and academics came together for Harris, thousands more watched on social media channels and pledged their time and money for the campaign. “The Kamala that I know is tough. She is brilliant. She is ready. She is experienced,” said Dewan. “We are talking about a woman who has shattered so many glass ceilings. It is absolutely possible.”

Lavina Melwani is a New York-based writer for several international publications. She blogs at Lassi with Lavina.

the-call-to-leave-the-race-is-perhaps-the-most-important-legacy-of-joe-biden-s-presidency

Fri Aug 02 17:30:36 IST 2024

JOE BIDEN WILL be remembered for his decision to drop out of the presidential race. Given how deep into the election season we are, and the fact that he had staked his reputation on staying committed to the race only days earlier, this could not have been an easy call to make. Had Biden remained obstinate, there was not really anything that the Democrats could have done to end his candidacy this late. This was, therefore, an act of tremendous courage.

That said, his record as president is a mixed bag. Biden has done relatively better on domestic policy. He has overseen the creation of a record number of jobs, made much-needed investment in America's ageing infrastructure and expanded access to critical medicines for senior citizens. The decision to cancel student loans was quite significant, too, in a country where higher education is rather unaffordable.

Perhaps most tellingly, for most of his presidency, Biden faced dire predictions from several economists of an impending recession. So far, the recession has not come, and the expanded public investment spending was probably a key factor in mitigating that. Some pockets of the economy have remained in distress, especially the high-tech sector which saw a flurry of layoffs, but hiring remains robust in most sectors. Inflation and housing costs have been unusually high, but there are some signs that they might cool down in the months ahead. All the same, inflation has perhaps been the biggest blot on Biden's handling of the economy―in part a fallout of the understandable decision to go the 'high spending, high growth' route after the pandemic.

On foreign policy, Biden's record is less flattering. Two major wars began under his presidency―one in Ukraine and the other in Gaza. The US has taken morally inconsistent stands on the two conflicts, which has significantly diluted its credibility and added to scepticism in the Global South toward US leadership. In that sense, Biden's decision to wholeheartedly support Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had an inadvertent impact on his drive to isolate President Vladimir Putin. It was always going to be difficult for the US to convince the Global South to cut Putin loose, but in the wake of the Gaza war, many saw hypocrisy in the way the US responded to the two conflicts and that increased geopolitical space for the Global South to engage with Putin.

The two fronts on which Biden has perhaps been most successful are in rejuvenating NATO, which was lacking in cohesion and confidence under Trump, and avoiding a confrontation with China over Taiwan. Skirmishes with China seemed very likely in the early days of his presidency, but Biden has done reasonably well to keep things under control, and he was perhaps aided by the fact that President Xi Jinping has been distracted by domestic economic crises. Nonetheless, by refraining from grandstanding and bombastic rhetoric towards China―which would have been popular―Biden has done well.

His role as president is now going to be overshadowed by the elections. The fact that his vice president is running in his place could make things more complicated for Biden. On the one hand, Biden personally has nothing to gain or lose in the next six months. Yet, any major developments could impact Kamala Harris's chances, so Biden would want to keep the next six months as uneventful as possible. A drop in inflation would be greatly helpful, but any major events on the domestic or international fronts would possibly only add risk to the Harris campaign.

By most accounts, the decision to leave the race appears to have helped Biden's image. Polls show that most people―both Democrat-leaning and Republican-leaning―approve of his decision to leave the race. However, it is unclear what plans he has after the White House or what role he will play in the Democratic Party.

One-term presidents are relatively rare in the contemporary era. Other than Trump, who may yet serve another term, the last president not to be reelected was George H.W. Bush more than 30 years ago, and Bush had stayed indirectly relevant in US politics through his son who also became president, but he made it a point not to play much of a role in his son's presidential campaign or political career. Now, as America's oldest-ever president, Biden is in a rather unique position, perhaps unlikely to do the sort of work that other former presidents did after their term in office.

Although reports a few weeks ago suggested that Biden was rather sour about the pressure on him to quit, now that he has indeed quit, he may not want to do anything that upsets consensus-building within the party behind Harris. She will continue to champion his economic policies―public investment in infrastructure, health care and education, addressing high student debt and making medicines more affordable. It is a fairly centre-left economic platform focused on social welfare and public spending. It will be interesting to see how Harris handles the issue of immigration, which has become much more of a hot potato in recent months.

Gaza might be the biggest point of difference between Biden and Harris. Biden's policy on Gaza has been tremendously unpopular among key Democrat voters, especially young liberals and first-time voters, and there are signs that Harris has caught on to that already. Just last week, Harris said that she was not going to be silent on the war.

As Biden walks off into the sunset, there could be some concerns about his relationship with Democratic bigwigs like Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. There were reports that Biden had felt somewhat betrayed by Obama in particular, and it is possible that reports of Obama's lack of confidence in him had been a factor in his decision to withdraw, given the tremendous popularity that Obama continues to enjoy. But a lot depends on what role Biden sees for himself in politics and in the Democratic Party after he leaves office. Addressing the nation last week, he spoke about stepping aside to allow younger, fresher voices to take over, so he may decide to stick to that line and step back quietly.

Zeeshan is a foreign affairs researcher and writer.

As told to Ajish P. Joy

us-presidential-elections-2024-campaign-donald-trump-kamala-harris

Sat Aug 03 17:32:35 IST 2024

Donald Trump was all set to run against President Joe Biden. When momentum started to build for Biden to drop out, the Trump campaign moderated its fire, hoping Biden would stay in. But now that he has stepped aside and Vice President Kamala Harris is the presumptive Democratic Party nominee, what does it mean for the conduct of the Trump campaign?

Despite a near-death experience from a would-be assassin’s bullet, Trump has already said that he will not be “nice” and has tried to hang the title “lying” on Harris just as he tried to attach “crooked” to Biden. Indeed, the chief effort of the Trump campaign will be to paint Harris in the same negative light as it painted Biden.

Economic and immigration issues

The Trump economy was not the best in history, as Trump falsely claims. The Biden/Harris administration did come up with a bipartisan fix for the border—which Trump torpedoed to keep the issue alive—but facts will take a backseat in the campaign against Harris.

On the economy, Trump will not only try to build an image of Harris as a “socialist,” but a “radical socialist”. Her support of “Medicare for all” in 2020 will be offered as exhibit A in the campaign’s “radical socialist” thrust. Exhibit B may very well be her previous opposition to fracking as opposed to Trump’s “drill baby drill” slogan. According to the Trump campaign, Harris will now be responsible for inflation as a sort of “power behind the throne” who incited Biden to take what MAGA Republicans consider disastrous economic measures.

The Trump campaign can be expected to double down on anti-immigration attacks against Harris, both because of her ethnic background as a child of a Jamaican American father and an Indian American mother and because of her unsuccessful efforts to keep Central American immigrants from moving toward the United States. Internationally, this may well dovetail into a Trump campaign against foreigners generally as taking American jobs, and renewed opposition to outsourcing and H-1B visas.

Because Harris is a woman of colour, Trump and his campaign will tailor personal attacks on her to “dog whistle” issues of race and gender. Harris’ sometimes garbled syntax will be cited to indicate that she is of inferior intellect. She is already being described as “not hard working”. Most prominently, the Trump campaign attacks on “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI) programmes will be applied to Harris. She is being called an example of why DEI programmes produce incompetent officers.

Law and order

It has long been the “stock-in-trade” of Trump to take what his opponent views as strengths and turn them into weaknesses. With Biden, it was his honesty and selflessness as a public servant. The Trump campaign turned it around into attacks on Biden, and accusations of him using public office for self-enrichment. With Harris, it will be her history of criminal prosecution in San Francisco and California as contrasted with Trump as a convicted felon who has seen many of his associates go to prison. Instead of Harris’ track record of being an excellent prosecutor, each law-and-order problem in California will be attributed to her. California will be portrayed as a sort of criminal “hell hole”. Never mind criticism from the left that she was too tough on criminal defendants, Harris will be portrayed as soft on crime and criminals of colour.

Another apparent strength of Harris is her standing up for democracy as opposed to Trump’s attacks on the democratic process. The Trump campaign is already trying to make the case that she is being chosen by a process that is anti-democratic and illegitimate because she did not go through the primaries as a candidate. She is being portrayed as an authoritarian who has risen to her position because of an un-democratic process that she has instigated.

The prominent issue used against Biden that he was “too old” obviously does not apply to Harris who is 18 years younger than Trump. Thus, there will be much less talk about age.

On abortion, the Trump campaign will obviously need to make some adjustments. It is one thing to say to a male opponent that he should not advocate for a woman’s right to choose control over her own body. It is quite different to say directly to a woman that she should not have control over her body. Probably the Trump campaign will deal with this by him not saying much about abortion beyond his appointment of Supreme Court Justices who overturned Roe versus Wade and letting surrogates like vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance work the right-to-life MAGA base.

The Trump campaign will also have to make some adjustments in their drive to split off men of colour, primarily black and Hispanic, from the Democratic coalition. The pitch that “Biden as an old white guy who did not help them much, so why not try something new”, will not be as effective against a woman of colour. Instead, the Trump campaign will need to devise a pitch to these voters emphasising strength and tying it into material prosperity.

Foreign policy

As in most political campaigns, be it in the US or India, foreign policy will take a back seat to domestic issues. But to the extent foreign policy is an issue, the Trump campaign will probably double down on the false dichotomy of male strength versus female weakness.

Harris will be attacked as not having the strength needed to deal with Xi Jinping and that she won’t be able to deal with Putin “man to man” to end the war in Ukraine. On Gaza, she will not be strong enough to let Benjamin Netanyahu, in the words of Trump, “finish the job”. Harris will be pictured as a captive of the foreign policy establishment in support of an outdated NATO and institutions that do not “put America first”.

In summary, Trump will campaign against Harris much the way he did against Biden, only more so. His campaign will make some adjustments, but Trump will continue to follow his own path, and the campaign will have to follow.

Raymond Vickery, Jr. is senior adviser at Albright Stonebridge Group. Previously, he served as assistant secretary of commerce for trade development, where he launched the US-India Commercial Alliance. He also served three terms as an elected member of the Virginia General Assembly and in other political capacities.

republicans-are-recalibrating-their-campaign-to-counter-harris

Fri Aug 02 17:23:49 IST 2024

THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE on June 27 between Joe Biden and Donald Trump triggered events, which in 30 days completely metamorphosed the race. Biden’s withdrawal from the contest on July 21, soon thereafter endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris, has set off a 100-day sprint to the November 5 election.

Harris moved quickly to garner the support of a majority of the 3,936 delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Chicago from August 19 to 22. The Democratic Party began radiating enthusiasm as its base stirred in support. The surge in contributions, from mostly new donors, reflected revived morale. Rushing to her first public meeting in the battleground state of Wisconsin, Harris tried to capture the public narrative before the expected Republican counter attack. She targeted Trump and outlined her futuristic vision as against his antediluvian rhetoric.

Biden’s self-sacrifice shifted the public narrative from his disabilities and the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13, to the new reality of a younger, feminine and coloured candidate. Subsequent polls showed the gap between Trump and Harris narrowing considerably. Whether this trend will continue or falter after Trump’s retaliatory response remains uncertain.

The US president is chosen indirectly by the 538-member US electoral college. Candidates winning a state bag all its delegates, except in the case of Maine and Nebraska, where winning districts determine delegate allocation. This method can create anomalies, as in 2016, when Hillary Clinton polled 2.8 million votes more than Trump and yet got 227 electoral college votes against Trump’s 304. In fact, 78,000 votes in three counties in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan determined the winner. The same three states swung back to the Democrats when Biden won in 2020, besides Georgia.

Demographic, economic and sociological factors leave open the possibility of about half a dozen states swinging either way and affecting the outcome. Thus, the presidential elections can hinge on “swing states”. That is why the running-mates for vice presidency are selected to compensate for the presidential candidate’s weakness or rival’s strength in one of those states. Although Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance belongs to Ohio, he was chosen for loyalty and not electoral benefits.

Harris has barely three months to plead her case. Trump can be expected to rant, dissimulate and conduct fact-free monologues. Republicans are recalibrating their campaign to counter Harris, by picking her left-leaning, more liberal stance in the presidential primaries of 2020. On the other hand, as a former high profile public prosecutor, she will reiterate her opponent’s 34 felony indictments.

Her baiting worked as Trump abandoned his call for unity, made at the Republican Convention, by publicly dropping his playing “nice” act. Already the conservative Heritage Foundation's document, 'Project 2025', has proposals that can undermine the US constitution. Like the BJP’s “400 paar'' slogan frightened the backward castes and dalits that the real agenda was to stop reservations, it could have some effect on the US polls. In one of his recent speeches, Biden spoke of the danger to civil rights from an “extreme” Trumpian agenda, in league with the Supreme Court. The battle lines are clearly etched. Democrats will argue democracy and the nation are in danger if Trump returns. Republicans will claim to defend the average non-college educated white man’s idea of a Christian and xenophobic way of life.

Republicans will also launch personal attacks on Harris. She must also create space between herself and some of Biden’s policies without appearing disloyal. One such issue is illegal immigration along the southern US border. Republicans call Harris the immigration “tsar” as Biden had tasked her to address the root causes of immigration. However, it was Trump who stymied a bipartisan border deal.

On the Gaza war, Harris has shrewdly created a gap with Biden’s approach. She skipped Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to the US Congress, which she normally would have attended as the senate’s chairperson. She met Netanyahu separately, and unnamed Israeli officials were quoted saying she gave them “harsher than expected” treatment. This may appeal to youth and minorities upset over Biden‘s seemingly indulgent approach towards Israel.

Polls indicate that most people do not blame Harris for perceived high inflation and bad economy. Even on issues like abortion and same sex marriage, those with a liberal stance outnumber the opponents. Vance’s diatribe against Harris is also proving counterproductive. Democrats need the votes of women, youth and minorities to balance the non-college educated whites rooting for Trump. Republicans are vulnerable on the abortion issue because most women want reproductive freedom. Harris has strongly defended that right, which Vance opposes.

The latest Fox News poll shows a tightening race in battleground states. However, predicting poll outcomes can be risky. In French parliamentary elections, the right-wing party National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, came third after dominating the recent European parliamentary election. Similarly, in Iran, a liberal candidate won, when, in the run-off phase, an extra turnout of 10 per cent neutralised the conservative candidate’s advantage. Even in India, the BJP claiming to cross 400 seats in parliamentary elections fell 40 seats below the halfway mark.

The November election will show which way the US swings. As a dominant global power, the world’s fate is tied to them.

The author was ambassador to the UAE and Iran, and secretary, ministry of external affairs.

campaign-finance-in-the-us-looks-transparent-but-may-not-be-really-so

Fri Aug 02 17:19:53 IST 2024

THE FINANCING OF electoral campaigns in the US happens at the federal, state and local levels. It has various components that ensure transparency. Sources of funding include individual contributors (max $2,800), political action committees (max $5,000) and super public action committees (no limit but they cannot deal directly with candidates).

The Republican National Committee and Democratic National Committee are primarily responsible for raising and spending money for political campaigns. Both the RNC and DNC are registered with the Federal Election Commission, which is an independent agency that monitors campaign finance. Candidates can also organise fundraising events where attendees have to donate money. That apart, online fundraising happens through social media. There are even merchandise sales. Apparently, Trump merch sales were burgeoning following an assassination attempt on him.

The contribution rules in the US clearly state that a campaign donor has to be a US citizen or lawfully admitted permanent resident. The campaign “does not accept contributions from corporations... unions, federal government contractors, national banks, those registered as federal lobbyists or… foreign nationals….”

The Federal Election Commission, created in 1975, ensures that candidates and party committees disclose sources, amounts of contributions and how they are spent. The FEC has six commissioners appointed by the president and confirmed by the senate. Only three commissioners can be from the same political party and all resolutions require at least four votes in agreement.

Before the FEC was formed, campaign contributions were mostly done covertly. Candidates, back then, used to depend on large donations to fund their campaigns. In the early 1970s the Watergate scandal shook American politics. President Richard Nixon was accused of letting five men break into the Democratic Party headquarters to steal documents. It led to his resignation and paved the way for the FEC Act, which marked a major shift in campaign finance.

In the last few years, the Democrats and the Republicans brought in campaign finance bills, but none of them became law. In 2010, the Supreme Court lifted a ban on corporate and union expenditures for the election or defeat of candidates. Interestingly, the court ruling also brought in super PACs, which are criticised for not having any limit on contributions and for lack of transparency.

“On an individual level, the campaign finance system in the US is very effective,” Sree Sreenivasan, former professor at Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism and former chief digital officer of Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York, told THE WEEK. “The problem is, the Supreme Court has made it very difficult to go after what is called dark money, which is generated and raised by companies, corporations and special interests. Those make a big difference in the success of candidates big and small.”

Sreenivasan said even though there is excitement over Harris raising $200 million in a short time, “it is a drop in the bucket to how much money they will need. There are unlimited pockets on both sides. Corporations and special interests are much bigger, and better organised and more powerful on the Republican side.”

According to the research group Open Secrets, the top donor for Trump in 2024 is Timothy Mellon of the Pittsburgh banking family who lives in Connecticut. He has donated $75 million for Trump in this cycle. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, it is said, has privately gathered support for Trump. His money could come in handy in the swing states.

Harris, on the other hand, has personal rapport with many tech leaders at Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Apple. She also has the support of philanthropist Melinda French Gates, Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings, Reid Hoffman of Linkedin, and former Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg. “She has smashed record over record. The majority in her case are first-time and small donors,” Manu Bhagavan, a historian based in New York, told THE WEEK. “I believe she will continue to draw in money to her campaign because it is being excellently run.”

It remains to be seen whether there is donor fatigue, especially in the case of Trump admirers. His legal fund, which pays his lawyers battling out cases against him across the country, is getting millions from his campaign’s biggest donors. So that may prevent small donors from donating for Trump, as they fear their money will be used for his cases. “I don’t think there is any donor fatigue. Both candidates will raise a lot of money in the days to come,” said Ashok Kumar Mago, a Texas based businessman who is a Padma Shri recipient.

Some billionaires have become more vocal for Trump after the assassination attempt, but that kind of fervour is not reflected in their donations. “The assassination attempt had a huge impact the following days,” said Sreenivasan. “It looked as if Trump would easily win against Biden. But he is no longer against Biden. With a new candidate, the entire race has changed. The 100-plus days that are left is an indication on how fast things can move. Huge roller-coaster and seismic changes are going to come.”

Noting that Harris could raise over $200 million within a day, Kevin Olickal, Democratic representative in the 16th district of the Illinois house of representatives, said to THE WEEK, “This renewed optimism and energy in the party is exactly what was missing. The fundraising and volunteer mobilisation sparked by Harris has a psychological effect, and has forced the Republicans into defence. They now have to change their campaign strategy to focus on a candidate who is younger.”

“Going forward, money will not likely be the issue that determines this race,” he said. “Both candidates will have the financial resources necessary to run a competitive campaign. The platform and messaging of each candidate will determine who is the next president.”

republican-hindu-coalition-founder-shalabh-kumar-interview

Sat Aug 03 11:42:47 IST 2024

Interview/ Shalabh Kumar, founder, Republican Hindu Coalition, and a close aide of Donald Trump

CHICAGO-BASED INDUSTRIALIST Shalabh Kumar is the founder and chairman of the Republican Hindu Coalition, and is seen as Donald Trump’s favourite Indian American. Kumar is one of Trump’s prominent donors, and also principal architect of his outreach to the Indian American community.

Edited excerpts from an exclusive interview:

Q/ There are many who say that the assassination attempt on Donald Trump has ensured that he will become the US president the second time. Do you think so?

A/ Yes. Within a minute [of being shot] he gets up and says, “Fight on, ‘fight on,” which means he is no ordinary man. Today, America wants a strong person as its leader. The assassination attempt has elevated Trump’s persona in the minds of the electorate. Whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, that image will not move out of your mind. We have never seen an American leader like that, who gets up immediately after being shot.

Q/ How do you look at the chances of Kamala Harris? Her popularity levels seem to have surged after the exit of Joe Biden.

A/ Yes, there is a lot of excitement among the Democrats. The reason is the contrast between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. With Biden, Democrats were sensing a rout. [Had he continued] they would have lost the senate, the house of representatives, etc. The Democrats would have got demolished like the Congress in India in 2014. When Biden decides to move out, there is big relief in the leadership of the donor class of the Democratic party. Kamala’s weaknesses will be exposed soon. She has advocated for open borders. She is the type who says we don’t need the police in the country. Her true nature needs to be exposed. She is the most leftist, Marxist [presidential] candidate the US has ever had. The US is not ready for a communist as its leader.

Q/ Author Salman Rushdie endorsed Kamala Harris’s candidacy for the US presidency and said it is great to see an Indian woman running for the White House. Do you believe a large number of Indian Americans will now be tempted to vote for her?

A/ Usha [Vance] is a lot stronger, and a true Indian and Hindu. Her husband [J.D. Vance] cooked vegetarian food for Usha’s mother, and that has much more impact on Indian Americans and Hindu Americans. Kamala hardly acknowledges her Indian roots. Around 99 per cent of the time she is an African American woman. Maybe in select groups she will say she has Indian roots. That can be seen through and [the Indian American] voter will expose that truth. What is Kamala’s policy towards China and Pakistan? She is worse than Hillary Clinton as far as policies towards China and Pakistan are concerned.

Q/ If Trump comes back to power, how do you look at the ties between India and the US evolving? Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the first world leaders to condemn the assassination attempt on “friend” Trump.

A/ They are really good friends who clicked together. We did ‘Ab Ki Baar Trump Sarkar’, just like ‘Ab Ki Baar Modi Sarkar’. Trump is totally pro-India. He is dead against terrorism and radical Islam. The US [under Trump] was as aligned with India, as it is with Israel. Under Trump, we [India and the US] made good progress, from 2016 to 2020. Now, from 2024 to 2028 it will be cemented much more. [After that] we look forward to Vance becoming the US president, in 2028, and Usha as the first lady. She has a great influence on Vance.

Q/ Do you believe that Usha Vance as an Indian American Hindu wife will help change the perception about the Republican Party that it is anti-immigrant?

A/ Your assumption [that the Republican Party is anti-immigrant] is incorrect. If you look at articles by prominent Republican leaders over the years, they are all for legal immigration and merit-based immigration. If you are a graduate of an American university you are entitled to get a green card. But if you cross the river and come illegally, that is not going to happen. It has nothing to do with [being] anti-immigrant. It is merit and legal [immigration] vs no merit and illegal [immigration]. The Republican Party believes in merit and legal immigration.

thulasendrapuram-kamala-harris-ancestral-village-in-tamil-nadu

Fri Aug 02 17:09:58 IST 2024

AT AN HOUR’S drive from the city of Thanjavur is a small village in Mannargudi in south Tamil Nadu. At first glance, there is nothing special about Thulasendrapuram―an agrarian village in the Cauvery delta in Thiruvarur district. The surrounding villages, however, cannot match its fame. In 2020, a woman with roots in the village rose to the second highest office in the world’s most powerful country. Four years later, she is all set to run for president.

The heart of Thulasendrapuram is a Dharma Sastha temple. Posters and banners of Vice President Kamala Harris have sprung up around the temple. A kilometre from the temple is a long, narrow, muddy path that leads to the agraharam―the Brahmin settlement. There are a few houses, painted white and saffron, here but there are many vacant plots, too. Most of the families have moved out.

“Gopalan Iyer’s house was on the opposite lane,” says N. Lalitha, wife of a priest in the village. “It is a vacant plot now. They must have moved out of the village many decades ago.” Nonetheless, Lalitha takes pride in calling Thulasendrapuram “Kamala Harris’s village”.

Many of the villagers seem to share similar sentiments. For them, it does not matter whether Harris is Indian or not. Or that she has never visited the village. They are proud of her and see in her a potential US president.

Malarkodi Pugazhenthiran, a 56-year-old who lives in a one-room, thatched house near the temple, was among the women in the village who drew kolams to celebrate Harris becoming vice president in 2020. Pugazhenthiran, who makes vadagam (sun-dried rice cakes) for a living, says she also drew a map of the US in front of her house. What if Harris wins this time? “I will draw the world map, because she will be the topmost person in the world,” she says. She adds that there were several prayer sessions for Harris in 2020 and that they have started again now.

The entire village seems well informed about US politics. They know what Donald Trump stands for. They know why Joe Biden withdrew. R. Vijayakumar, former ward councillor of Thulasendrapuram, watches only the world news on TV these days. Reading up on US election news in the papers, he goes around educating villagers on the latest developments. “It is just general knowledge and political awareness,” he says. “We prayed for her victory [in 2020]. She won last time as VP. Now, again she will win.”

Harris’s maternal grandfather Painganadu Venkatraman Gopalan Iyer moved out of Thulasendrapuram in the early decades of the 20th century to work in Delhi. A civil servant, he was sent to Zambia as director of relief measures and refugees. He went on to become adviser to the first president of Zambia, Kenneth Kaunda. Harris’s mother, Shyamala Gopalan, earned a PhD in endocrinology from the University of California, Berkeley. She met and married Jamaican economist Donald J. Harris and settled in the US. Her sister, Sarala, an obstetrician who practised in Chennai, and her brother, Balachandran, an academician who holds a PhD from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, are said to have visited Thulasendrapuram on multiple occasions.

Shyamala and her daughters used to visit Gopalan in Chennai. In her memoir, The Truths We Hold, Harris recalls how she was strongly influenced by Gopalan’s progressive views on democracy and women’s rights. She also mentions her conversations with her grandfather, right from her childhood, through letters and over the telephone.

Villagers say Gopalan used to visit occasionally and had “an excellent quality in himself and always wanted his daughters to be ahead of the times”. He is remembered as a “well-read, progressive man with deep knowledge in world affairs”. Villagers say his family donated money for the Sastha temple in 2014. “Gopalan’s second daughter visited the village temple and donated Rs5,000 in Kamala’s name,” says R. Krishnamurthy, a retired SBI general manager who shuttles between Thulasendrapuram and Chennai. “But, none of us saw her then. We did not know that one day Kamala will be prominent.”

The villagers say Gopalan was known for his ability to be calm under pressure. This quality must have helped him work in Zambia at a challenging time. They say Harris has inherited his qualities, which would help her win the presidency.

“Our Dharma Sastha will ensure her victory,” claims Lalitha.

jammu-and-kashmir-assembly-elections-analysis

Sat Sep 28 12:50:34 IST 2024

IN THE FIERCELY contested Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, the stakes were particularly high in the second phase, on September 25. The first phase, on September 18, had seen a strong voter turnout of more than 61 per cent, and the second, covering 26 assembly segments, featured former chief minister Omar Abdullah, Apni Party president Altaf Bukhari and BJP state president Ravinder Raina.

Omar is fighting to reclaim the family stronghold of Ganderbal, which his grandfather Sheikh Abdullah won in 1977. In 2014, Omar, the sitting MLA, made way for Ishfaq Jabbar, who won, but the latter was expelled from the National Conference in 2023 for “anti-party” activities. While the NC retains support in Ganderbal, the entry of Bashir Mir, of the People’s Democratic Party, has made the race competitive. In 2014, Mir had narrowly lost to NC’s Mian Altaf by just over 1,400 votes in the Kangan constituency.

“The people of Ganderbal have been voting for 70 years but never had access to their representative,” said Mir. “This time, they want a candidate who is local and accessible.” Observers, however, believe that Mir’s “outsider” dig at Omar may not resonate, as he himself is not from Ganderbal.

Omar also faces competition from Jabbar, now an independent, as well as from jailed cleric Sarjan Ahmad Wagay and Awami Ittehad Party’s Sheikh Ashiq. Omar has labelled Wagay and Ashiq as “BJP agents” trying to split the vote.

Omar is relying on the NC’s grassroots support and past contributions, including the setting up of a Central university in Ganderbal. In a rare emotional moment at a party meeting after filing his nomination, he removed his cap and appealed to his supporters: “My honour is in your hands.”

Omar also contested from the Budgam seat, where his main opponent was the PDP candidate Aga Syed Muntazir, a Shia leader and cousin of NC MP Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi. The influential Aga family holds sway over Budgam’s Shia Muslims, who make up 40 per cent of the electorate. “The Shia vote will split, but we expect a larger share because of Ruhullah,” said an NC leader. “That’s why we have fielded Omar―he’s also likely to attract a significant portion of the Sunni vote.”

This election is also crucial for Altaf Bukhari, who was one of the first Kashmiri politicians to engage with the Centre after the abrogation of Article 370. The NC and the PDP have labelled his party as the BJP’s “B team”, which has hurt his prospects in Chanapora. Observers say the JKAP’s future hinges on Bukhari’s performance in this election.

Bukhari had gone door to door in Chanapora, promising to fight for the restoration of Jammu and Kashmir’s statehood. However, he did tell locals that no party could form the government alone. “We’ve been split into so many pieces that nobody listens to anyone,” he said. “We will have to make compromises.”

He has also been critical of the NC-Congress alliance, saying, “I don’t understand which soap they have washed the Congress with. They used to call them insects from a filthy drain.”

Bukhari’s main rival is the NC’s Mushtaq Guroo, who relied on the party’s strong organisational structure and the perception that the NC is ahead.

Bukhari is banking on his goodwill as a former minister in the PDP-BJP government, which collapsed in 2018. After delimitation, parts of Budgam have been merged with Chanapora, adding complexity to the race.

Nowshera, a key seat in Rajouri district, is another hotly contested constituency. BJP state president Ravinder Raina, who is seeking re-election, was up against the NC’s Surinder Choudhary, who enjoys strong support. In 2014, Raina defeated Choudhary, then a PDP candidate, by 9,503 votes. This time, though, the contest is expected to be tougher. The BJP is banking on the support of the Pahari community, which was recently granted ST status. This move, however, angered the Gujjars and Bakerwals (both on the list), who feel the Paharis don’t qualify for the classification.

Nowshera has traditionally been a Congress bastion; the party has won five of seven times since 1977, with the NC and the BJP each winning once.

Raina, known for his ability to connect with people of all faiths, is the only BJP leader widely recognised in Kashmir. Union Home Minister Amit Shah backed Raina―an RSS man―at a rally in Nowshera on September 22. “Ravinder Raina’s voice is heard strongly in both Srinagar and Delhi,” said Shah. On the other hand, Choudhary’s campaigns have been equally forceful and impressive. “Raina will have to tell the people what he has done for them in the past ten years,’’ he told a large gathering in Nowshera. “The people here know that this is a 19-year-old relationship. Our bond is one of happiness and grief.”

In another meeting, he criticised the government’s Agniveer scheme, saying it had not helped the youth who wanted to join the Army.

Observers say that Raina and Choudhary are locked in a tough battle and the winner is difficult to predict.

A key battleground in this phase, which has aroused curiosity, is the newly created Shri Mata Vaishno Devi constituency in Reasi district. This seat, carved out after delimitation, saw a heated contest between the BJP’s Baldev Raj Sharma, the NC-Congress candidate Bhupinder Singh, the PDP’s Partap Krishan Sharma, and the four independent candidates―Jugal Kishore, Bansi Lal, Raj Kumar and Sham Singh. Another high-profile candidate in the fray is the Jammu and Kashmir Congress president Tariq Hameed Karra, who contested from Central Shalteng in Srinagar. A former member of the PDP, Karra was a vocal critic of the BJP-PDP alliance and left the party in 2016. He joined the Congress in 2017.

Karra replaced Vikar Rasool as state party president in August, ahead of the assembly elections, after some Congress leaders complained to the high command about the latter’s style of functioning.

A day before the campaigning for second phase ended, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi addressed a rally in Shalteng to support Karra. “Jammu and Kashmir was not only downgraded to a Union territory,” said Gandhi, “but this place is now ruled by outsiders against the wishes of the people.”

He will have to wait till October 8 to see if the Kashmiris agree.

himachal-pradesh-chief-minister-sukhvinder-singh-sukhu-interview

Sat Oct 05 18:12:48 IST 2024

Interview/ Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu Himachal Pradesh chief minister

HIMACHAL PRADESH Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu recently announced that he, his ministers, chief parliamentary secretaries, and chairpersons and vice-chairpersons of boards and corporations would defer drawing their salaries for two months. It immediately put the focus on the finances of the hill state, which are not in the pink. In an exclusive interview, Sukhu says the state had already moved from a stage of financial crisis to financial discipline and fiscal prudence. Excerpts:

Q/ Is Himachal Pradesh going through a financial crisis?

A/ The financial crisis was because of the freebies announced by the BJP government. In April 2022, before the assembly elections, it made electricity up to 125 units free, waived off water bills and announced a discount of 50 per cent on fare for women travelling by state buses. There was a debt of more than Rs85,000 crore and a liability of Rs10,000 crore towards arrears to be paid to the employees as per the recommendations of the Sixth Pay Commission. We spend Rs25,000 crore on salaries of government employees every year. Our total budget is Rs52,000 crore. The freebies announced by the BJP government made the situation worse.

Q/ What is your government doing to deal with the financial crunch?

A/ We were in a financial crunch in 2022-23. We are bringing the economy back. We earned Rs2,200 crore additional revenue in a year.

When you change the system, some pain has to be endured. We are taking some tough decisions such as not providing free electricity and free water to everyone. Those who are paying income tax can pay for electricity and water. We have shut down 500 schools because there were no teachers in those schools. We want to provide people with good quality electricity, health care, food and education.

Q/ Are you reworking the subsidies?

A/ We were providing subsidy of Rs1 per unit of electricity to hotels. Why should five star or three star hotels that are making profits get this subsidy? We have stopped the subsidy on electricity given to commercial entities. A similar rationalisation is being done with regard to water subsidy. Only the poor families will get it for free.

Q/ Your decision to defer the salaries of the chief minister, the ministers and others gave out the message that the state’s finances were in poor shape.

A/ It is a symbolic move. How much will our salaries add up to? Rs1 crore or Rs1.5 crore. This was done to send out a message to society that if we move in the right direction now, our future generations will be safe. It was meant to send out a message of self-regulation and fiscal discipline, that the political leadership and the people, everyone has to participate in this.

Q/ Opposition leader Jai Ram Thakur says the government does not have the money to pay the salaries of the employees.

A/ We pay Rs2,000 crore a month towards the salaries and pensions of our employees―Rs1,200 crore for salaries and Rs800 crore as pension. The state takes loan from the RBI at a rate of 7.5 per cent to pay these. The share of the states from the Centre-state taxes reaches the states on the sixth of every month. We would pay interest rate on the loan taken from the RBI for five days. So by paying the salary on the sixth instead of the first of the month, we would save on the interest. In a year, we would save Rs36 crore.

Q/ The BJP claims that your government raised loans of more than Rs24,000 crore over the past 18 months and you will end up with Rs1 lakh crore debt by the end of this financial year.

A/ That is not true at all. This year, we have taken a loan of Rs6,300 crore, and last year, we had taken a loan of Rs8,000 crore. The loans are strictly as per the guidelines of the RBI.

Q/ Another allegation is that your government has taken loans by mortgaging employees’ general provident fund.

A/ Every state does that. It is a routine process.

Q/ Opposition-ruled states have complained about not getting adequate financial assistance from the Centre.

A/ The Centre is supposed to give us Rs9,300 crore as per its post-disaster assessment in the aftermath of the devastating floods in the state last year. They have to give us Rs9,200 crore that has been contributed by the employees under the National Pension Scheme. Around Rs5,000 crore is due to Himachal Pradesh from the Bhakra Beas Management Board. If we get all these funds, the financial issues will be taken care of.

Q/ Do you feel there should be a rethink on the populist measures announced during the elections?

A/ Subsidies or benefits should be given to those who need it. They have to be rationalised.

Q/ The Congress had promised old pension scheme, Rs1,500 for women and free power.

A/ We are implementing all these promises.

Q/ How are you enhancing your revenues?

A/ We will ensure that companies extracting minerals in the state pay the royalty and the tax that is due to the state, or the state will take over the facilities.

Q/ The BJP says there were irregularities in the excise department.

A/ In five years, the BJP government earned Rs600 crore in excise. We have in one year earned Rs485 crore. So where is the problem? We have auctioned liquor vends, which did not happen during the term of the BJP government.

Q/ Are you now placed comfortably in terms of numbers in the assembly?

A/ Of course, yes. We are back to being 40 MLAs in the assembly. There are no independent MLAs and it is just between the Congress and the BJP.

nitin-gadkari-staying-away-from-key-meetings-sets-political-tongues-wagging-once-again-maharashtra

Sat Sep 28 11:54:01 IST 2024

Is Nitin Gadkari trying to send a message to the BJP central leadership ahead of the Maharashtra elections? The Union minister of transport and highways skipped Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Wardha on September 20 to launch the Acharya Chanakya Skill Development Scheme and to mark the first anniversary of the PM Vishwakarma Yojana. Gadkari also stayed away from the BJP’s pre-election review meeting in Nagpur on September 24, which was attended by Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

When asked about Gadkari’s absence, his media officer said the minister was out of Maharashtra. A senior BJP leader close to Gadkari said too much was being read into Gadkari’s absence. “Is it necessary that Gadkari saheb has to be present at every event of the Central leadership? He is a Central minister as well and has his own programmes,” said the leader, dismissing allegations that Gadkari was staying away intentionally.

A week ago, Gadkari had joked at a public function that there was no guarantee that the BJP would be able to form the government at the Centre for a fourth time. While Modi was at Wardha, Gadkari was attending an event in Pune when he said that in a democracy, the government must be open to criticism. “Everyone should be free to express their opinion and those in power should tolerate criticism,” he said.

Gadkari is one of the few Union ministers who is popular among the opposition. He is known to speak his mind and does not hesitate to help MPs belonging to opposition parties. Speaking at an event in Nagpur on September 14, he said a senior leader from an opposition party had offered him support for the post of prime minister, but he had turned it down.

Ahead of the Maharashtra elections, the BJP is toying with the idea of collective leadership. State BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said a few days ago that Gadkari would be among the top leaders for the assembly campaign. This was not the case in 2019 when chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had controlled all aspects of the campaign. Back then, some of the top leaders perceived to be close to Gadkari, including Bawankule, were denied tickets. Five years later, Fadnavis is not really in a commanding position. So Gadkari will certainly have a say in ticket distribution and election management.

During his meeting in Nagpur, Shah set a target of winning 45 of 62 seats in Vidarbha. This is a big task given the BJP’s poor show in the region in the Lok Sabha elections. Against this backdrop, Gadkari’s absence at such a crucial meeting has confused the cadre further.

Maharashtra Congress general secretary Sachin Sawant said Gadkari certainly seemed upset with the Modi-Shah leadership. He said the dictatorship enforced by the duo over the BJP was far worse than what was being faced by the country. So, in his view, a senior leader like Gadkari, who once served as BJP president, is naturally feeling upset.

An incident that took place when Gadkari was party president offers some insight into his equation with Modi. As president, Gadkari tried to revive the career of Sanjay Joshi, one of the BJP’s national secretaries and a strong Modi opponent. Modi, who was then chief minister of Gujarat, refused to attend a party event in Mumbai till Joshi was asked to leave. Despite being national president, Gadkari had to bow to Modi’s wishes.

A senior NCP leader said that it was natural for Gadkari to feel frustrated. “Gadkari is a large-hearted and democratic leader. The current dispensation has reduced a vibrant democracy into a situation where the opposition is treated like an enemy,” the leader said. “Gadkari does not like this and he has been open about it.”

BOSS OF BLUNT TALK

Outspoken and unapologetic, Nitin Gadkari has been a magnet for controversy over the past few years. Some instances of his plain-speak:

“When I was a child, my mother would often tell me, ‘A critic should become our neighbour, so that our flaws can be pointed out.’ The biggest test of democracy is that the king is capable of tolerating criticism against himself.”

At an event in Pune on September 20, 2024

“[A] person said, ‘If you are going to become prime minister, we would support you.’ I asked, ‘Why should you support me? And why should I take your support?’ To become prime minister is not the aim in my life. I am loyal to my conviction… and I am not going to make compromises for any post.”

At an awards function in Nagpur on September 14, 2024

If we continue doing what the Congress used to do, then there is no use of their exit and our entry.

At the BJP executive meeting in Goa on July 12, 2024

“Never indulge in use-and-throw policy. When you have held someone’s hand, hold it tight if he is your friend, irrespective of whether the situation is good or bad.”

At an event in Nagpur on August 28, 2022, after he was dropped from the BJP’s parliamentary board

“People like politicians who sell dreams. But if these dreams are not realised, then they beat them up as well. I am not someone who just sells dreams; I realise them, too.”

At a function in Mumbai on January 27, 2019

“If I am the party president and my MPs and MLAs are not doing well, then who is responsible? I am.”

At an Intelligence Bureau event on December 24, 2018, after the BJP led by president Amit Shah lost three key heartland states in elections

coalition-dynamics-and-poor-electoral-prospects-continue-to-diminish-ajit-pawars-political-stock

Sat Sep 21 12:39:08 IST 2024

Is Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar sulking? Or, is he trying to garner sympathy for himself? Going by his recent public statements, the latter seems to be the case.

When Union Home Minister Amit Shah recently visited Mumbai to take part in Ganesh Chaturthi festivities, Ajit chose not to meet him along with Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. When his absence became news, he met Shah at the airport.

It was reported that Ajit asked Shah to make him chief minister if the BJP-led alliance retained power after the assembly polls, due in November. Ajit later denied the report, saying he only discussed problems faced by farmers.

Apparently, Ajit has realised that his Nationalist Congress Party faces an uphill task in the polls. He recently said he did not have to ask for permission while distributing party tickets as he was the saheb (boss). It was a veiled reference to his uncle, former chief minister Sharad Pawar, with whom he had parted ways in February last year. In response, Amol Kolhe, MP, who belongs to the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP that opposes Ajit, retorted that Maharashtra knows only two sahebs―Balasaheb Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.

A leader of Ajit’s NCP in Pune district told THE WEEK that the party could get to contest 60 to 65 seats in the polls. “I met him (Ajit) a few days ago; instead of assembly elections, we spoke about elections in sugar cooperatives. But 60 to 65 seats is what we are aiming to contest [in the assembly polls],” said the leader.

Ajit recently said that he was ready to step aside if the people of Baramati, the assembly constituency that he has represented for more than three decades, wanted another leader to be their representative. This led to speculation regarding his future with Baramati.

Sunil Tatkare, MP and state NCP president, said there was no question of Ajit not contesting from Baramati. “Ajit dada says things in his way, but as far as the party is concerned, he will contest,” said Tatkare.

Said the NCP leader from Pune: “He took the defeat of his wife, Sunetra, in the Lok Sabha elections as his own defeat, and hence the statement.” Sunetra, who contested the Baramati Lok Sabha constituency, was defeated by Supriya Sule, incumbent MP and daughter of Sharad Pawar.

NCP leaders say Ajit will win the assembly polls in Baramati even if he does not campaign. “The people of Baramati are very clear―Supriya tai in the Lok Sabha and Ajit dada in the assembly,” said the leader from Pune.

Ajit also said recently that he had realised that politics should not enter one’s family. He said he had realised his mistake―apparently, of fielding Sunetra against Sule in the Lok Sabha polls.

A senior leader of the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP said Ajit was afraid that he might have to face his nephew Yugendra Pawar in Baramati. Yugendra, who is the son of Ajit’s younger brother Srinivas, is planning to launch a yatra in Baramati.

As the polls draw near, there have been desertions in the NCP’s ranks. Bhagyashri Atram, daughter of Minister Dharmrao Atram of Gadchiroli, recently joined Sharad Pawar’s NCP. Legislators such as Atul Benke, who represents Junnar in Pune district, have been perceived to be preparing to shift loyalties. Benke recently met Pawar publicly.

Ajit wants a respectable number of seats to contest, though he is aware of his party’s limitations. The party had got a drubbing in the Lok Sabha polls. It could win only one of the four seats contested―only Tatkare, who contested from Raigad, managed to win.

The NCP leader from Pune said all major leaders who would get the party ticket from Ajit have the capacity to win on their own. He was doubtful of Chhagan Bhujbal’s prospects. A veteran leader and minister, Bhujbal has been against giving reservation to the Maratha community from the quota allotted to the Other Backward Classes.

Mahesh Tapase, chief spokesperson of the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP, said the RSS had held Ajit responsible for the BJP’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls. Apparently, the RSS felt that many people in the BJP did not support the alliance with the NCP.

Veteran journalist Ravikiran Deshmukh said Ajit had become a liability for the BJP, as its cadre was not comfortable with the alliance. Also, said Deshmukh, Ajit had thought that he would be able to find a niche in state politics that was separate from his uncle’s. But the Lok Sabha polls showed that it had not worked out. Tatkare won because of his own base and network. So Ajit is now trying to garner sympathy for himself by claiming that it was a mistake to mix family and politics, said Deshmukh.

According to him, Ajit tried to claim credit for the Ladki Bahin Scheme, but the Shiv Sena, led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, thwarted it. In cabinet meetings, ministers from the Sena and the NCP locked horns over using the chief minister’s name while referring to the scheme. According to the NCP, the scheme was introduced in the budget by Ajit Pawar, who holds the finance portfolio.

“There is no future for Ajit Pawar in this alliance. It was the BJP who got him on board the saffron alliance. Now they (the BJP) will have to create a suitable space for him,” said Deshmukh, who was media adviser to Devendra Fadnavis when he was chief minister.

Arwind Tiwari, general secretary of the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP, said that Ajit’s assessment of himself had grossly gone wrong. Ajit, said Tiwari, thought he had established himself as a leader in his own right, but actually he was on borrowed political capital. He relied on the stature of his uncle. “During the Lok Sabha polls, his political stock got diminished in his own constituency. At one time, he had successfully created a perception that if Supriya Sule has to get elected to the Lok Sabha, she would have to be dependent on Ajit Pawar,” said Tiwari. But now Sule has emerged as a leader in her own right, and Ajit had lost relevance, he said.

According to Anil Deshmukh, former minister and leader of Sharad Pawar’s NCP, Ajit has been reduced to sticking to the script prepared by his newly appointed poll strategist Naresh Arora. “If Arora tells him to apologise, he does it. If Arora says, ‘Wear a pink jacket’, he does it. He is the president of his party, and he is acting according to Arora’s script,” said Deshmukh.

Jayant Patil, state president of Sharad Pawar’s NCP, also said Arora was calling the shots in Ajit’s NCP. Patil recently told journalists in Nagpur that Arora had told Ajit not to say or do anything on an impulse. “Ajit Pawar of today is not the Ajit Pawar he was earlier,” said Patil.

He also said the BJP would want to distance itself from Ajit, given the Lok Sabha poll results. According to Patil, the BJP may even ask Ajit’s NCP to go it alone in the assembly polls, and think about a tie-up post elections, if needed.

home-made-rockets-and-weapons-from-across-the-border-are-escalating-the-conflict-in-manipur

Sat Sep 21 12:34:39 IST 2024

It was like a sonic boom. I had gone inside the house seconds before it happened. When I ran back out, I found the priest lying there, covered in blood. Splinters were everywhere, and my sister was injured, too,” recounted M. Kelvin Singh, great-grandson of Manipur’s first elected chief minister and Indian National Army freedom fighter Mairembam Koireng Singh.

On September 6, a rocket launched from the Kuki-dominated hills of Churachandpur struck the Meitei town of Moirang in Bishnupur district. The attack resulted in the death of a priest who was performing a ritual at the former chief minister’s residence, adjacent to the INA Museum. The rocket struck a wall, causing it to collapse, and the resulting splinters caused damage to nearby areas. The priest was fatally injured by one of these splinters.

The attack signalled a dangerous new chapter in Manipur’s ethnic strife. In the earlier phases of the conflict, most casualties occurred during gunfights on the fringes. But, the latest wave of violence has seen a sharp increase in civilian deaths and injuries to minors, signalling a grave humanitarian crisis. With the use of improvised rockets, armed drones and heavy weaponry, even those living 5km to 10km from the conflict zones realise with chilling clarity that no one is safe any more. In response, paramilitary forces and the Indian Army have expanded their dominance deeper into fringe areas, bracing for the threat posed by longer range weapons.

Just days before the rocket attack in Moirang, on September 1, terror struck Meitei-dominated Koutruk village in Imphal West. Over 40 bombs were reportedly dropped from drones that flew in from the Kuki-dominated hills of Kangpokpi. The bombing was accompanied by a deadly sniper attack. Two lives were lost, including that of a woman.

Eleven-year-old Ngangbam Rojiya witnessed her mother Surbala Devi’s death―a sniper’s bullet tore through the wall and hit her head. Rojiya’s right hand was injured, but the trauma has left deeper scars. “My daughter still shivers when she recalls the incident,” said Ngangbam Ingo, her father and a member of the village defence force linked with the Manipur Police. “She can still hear the echoes of bombs and gunfire.” For their safety, Rojiya and her older brother, Mahesh, have been relocated to their father’s village of Phayeng, about 5km from the scene of the tragedy. Koutruk lay in ruins, with many shattered homes. This was the first time the warring communities have used drones in an attack.

Kuki Civil Society Organisations vehemently deny drone bombings (it is alleged that Kukis repurposed commercial drones), and even former director general of the Assam Rifles, Lieutenant General Pradeep Chandran Nair (retd), supports this view. Ginza Vualzong, spokesperson for the Indigenous Tribal Leaders Forum, the frontal body for Kukis, says that their drones are small and used only for surveillance. (The Army and the CRPF have faced trouble in using their anti-drone system. A senior officer noted that in the narrow valleys of the region, the system can interfere with air traffic control.)

Kuki leaders do acknowledge the fighting on September 1, saying it was in retaliation to armed Meitei groups trying to take control of the forest road between Kangpokpi and Churachandpur. This road is the only link connecting the areas now, as the main route through Imphal Valley has been inaccessible to Kuki-Zo communities since the start of the ethnic conflict.

No one from the Kuki community is denying the development of home-made rockets.

The community, known for its weapons like the Pompi gun―a bamboo tube covered with buffalo skin, which was used against the British―have adapted them into modern grenade launchers with longer range.

“Meitei militant groups, valley-based insurgent factions, and Arambai Tenggol have access to sophisticated weapons, many of which are taken from state armouries. We have no choice but to innovate, drawing on our indigenous knowledge, to defend our ancestral land,” said Kaiminlen Sitlhou, spokesperson for the Committee on Tribal Unity. From a secret location in Sadar Hills overlooking the Imphal Valley, Sitlhou demonstrated to THE WEEK the working of a third-generation Pompi.

“To counter the Meitei threat, we developed an improved version of the Pompi last December, and we made further enhancements by March,” said Sitlhou. The latest iterations are crafted from thick steel from earth movers and old Shaktiman trucks. These Pompis function almost like advanced fireworks, with gunpowder packed in the base and the grenades loaded at the front. According to Sitlhou, the new Pompi can launch a grenade up to 10km-15km.

While security agencies assert these weapons are not military-grade, their impact has been devastating. The operation of such weaponry is also highly hazardous. “The risk is significant―it can kill the person who triggers it if it explodes prematurely,” said Sitlhou. The locally made grenades vary in size from 10cm to more than 20cm.

Security forces suspect that Kuki groups were helped by the Chin of Myanmar, who are fighting the military junta, in developing rockets. It is also believed that valley-based insurgent groups, active in the current conflict, possess sophisticated weapons, including those sourced from China. Among the arms recovered were M16, M18, and M4A1 carbines, which are not in the state police armoury and, therefore, not obtained via the loot from local arsenals during the initial days of riot.

Over the past year, there has been numerous reports of stolen water pipes and electric posts, with security agencies saying these materials could have been used to make weapons. A recent rocket attack in Moirang underscores this disturbing trend. Four crude rockets, each targeting different locations in the town, were repurposed pipes. They were propelled by gunpowder and had casings embedded with metal splinters and cycle bearings to increase lethality. The pipes were equipped with four fins for in-flight stability and had nitrogenous explosives in their warheads. As per a report filed at the Moirang Police Station, one of these rockets weighed 23.8kg. All four rockets travelled over five kilometres before impact.

Following the rocket and drone attacks, many have fled to safer areas. Yet, for poor farmers in the old fringe regions, where gunfire and assaults are routine, escape is not an option. In Bishnupur’s Oaksubam village, 70-year-old Konjenbam Matun labours on his small plot of land at the foothills, cultivating tomato, cauliflower, cucumber and other vegetables. “The Kuki hills are just 2km away,” he says, gesturing towards the green, steep slopes beyond his field and a vast paddy expanse. “I have no choice but to continue farming to survive. Whenever there’s a shoot-out, I have to run. Even my mud house offers no real protection.”

Public agitation surged after rocket attacks and alleged drone strikes. Students took to the streets of Imphal, demanding an end to conflict. They burned in effigy Union Home Minister Amit Shah and called for unified command (a coordination committee of police, Army and Central forces) to be led by Chief Minister Biren Singh, who is viewed by many as a staunch advocate for Meitei interests.

Meanwhile, the police are concerned about the use of lethal weapons by students in Imphal. Authorities believe that miscreants infiltrated the protests, using students as human shields. Manipur Deputy Inspector General (Range 1) N. Herojit Singh said that protesters were armed with automatic firearms. An officer was injured and the bulletproof vehicles of superintendents of police were damaged in gunfire.

In response to rising tensions, the government imposed a curfew and an internet ban. While the internet ban has since been lifted, a partial curfew remains in place.

After 16 months of ethnic conflict, life in both the valley and the hills remains grim. Students are forced to guard their villages with heavy weapons, neglecting studies. The cost of essential goods has skyrocketed and many are out of work. Thousands of internally displaced individuals are living in deteriorating conditions. With militant groups on both sides taking up arms, law and order has completely broken down, and Manipur is effectively controlled by these armed groups.

Given the range of weapons at their disposal now, any further escalation could spell disaster. Meanwhile, the Manipur Police have obtained MK2A1 medium machine guns and are being trained by the Army. The tension is intense, and the threat of more violence hangs heavily over an already devastated landscape.

engineer-rashid-jamaat-e-islami-alliance-jammu-and-kashmir-polls

Sat Sep 21 12:29:12 IST 2024

The ongoing assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir promise to be a closely fought contest. The National Conference-Congress alliance has momentum, especially in Kashmir and parts of Jammu, but it faces a challenge from new political players such as Engineer Rashid, leader of the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), and the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). The JeI is backing candidates in seven seats―five in south and two in north Kashmir―while the AIP is contesting 34 seats.

The collaboration between Rashid and the JeI has caused unease in the NC and People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the two main regional parties.Rashid’s appeal has grown a lot after he won the Baramulla Lok Sabha election from jail, defeating the NC’s Omar Abdullah and Sajad Lone of the People’s Conference (PC). The NC and the PDP have alleged that Rashid, who was granted interim bail on September 10, is a BJP proxy released to split the opposition vote. Given the region’s complex demographics, even a small shift in voter preference could affect outcomes in several constituencies.

Although there is no overwhelming wave of support for the NC-Congress alliance, the NC’s leadership and strong organisational structure have helped it navigate the aftermath of the removal of Article 370 better than parties like the PDP. This was reinforced by the party’s performance in the Lok Sabha polls.

As for the Congress, it is buoyed by its increased vote share of 19 per cent, despite losing both Jammu seats to the BJP.

The PDP, though excluded from the alliance because of the NC’s opposition, aligns with the anti-BJP stance. Together, the NC-Congress alliance and the PDP led in 46 assembly segments―the number needed to form government―in the Lok Sabha elections.

Notably, it was the PDP that had previously benefited from JeI support. “The real JeI is behind bars with the ED and NIA targeting them,” said PDP president and former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti during a campaign in Pulwama. She said JeI schools were banned, members’ houses locked and their orchards seized. “They split it like they split the PDP,” she said, urging Delhi to lift the ban and allow the JeI to rejoin the electoral process.

After PDP and Rashid supporters clashed in Shopian, Mufti questioned AIP’s funding. “Engineer Rashid was in jail,” she said. “How is his party fielding candidates everywhere?” NC president Farooq Abdullah also weighed in, claiming prisoners were being released to divide the Muslim vote. Even Lone questioned the timing of Rashid’s release, hinting at a BJP plan.

Rashid, for his part, has dismissed the allegations of being a BJP proxy. “I got over four lakh votes in the Lok Sabha elections and defeated Omar Abdullah by more than two lakh votes. Yet, I am being accused of siphoning off votes.”

He emphasised that the cooperation with the JeI was aimed at raising the voice of Kashmiris and finding a solution to the Kashmir problem. “We will support the JeI candidates, and they will support our candidates,” he said. “In some seats, there will be a friendly contest, and both parties will field candidates.”

The JeI, too, has defended its decision to rejoin electoral politics. “We stayed away from elections due to concerns about the lack of transparency after 1987,” said Sayar Ahmed Reshi, JeI’s candidate from Kulgam, a stronghold of CPI(M) leader Muhammad Yousuf Tarigami. “Otherwise, JeI is the only organisation that elects all its officials through a consultative system (shura).”

He said that after the recent ‘free and fair’ Lok Sabha polls, they felt they should come forward and provide people with a sympathetic leadership. “Our agenda is peace and development with dignity,” he said.

Dr Talat Majeed, the JeI’s candidate in Pulwama, said the JeI had no role in starting militancy in Kashmir. “Other religious groups also had their militant wings; why single out JeI?’’ he asked. “I think whatever can be achieved is through political engagement.”

Altaf Thakur, the BJP’s chief spokesperson in Jammu and Kashmir, rubbished claims that Rashid was his party’s proxy. “Our opponents have already accepted defeat and that is why these allegations are being made,” he said.

The BJP has fielded candidates for 19 of the 47 seats in the valley. Ram Madhav, the BJP’s election in-charge for Jammu and Kashmir, said his party aims to win 35 seats in Jammu and 10 in Kashmir. “If this happens, those who ruined J&K for years are kept at bay,” he said. However, observers note that the BJP’s chances in Kashmir are slim, largely due to its role in stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its limited autonomy. The party is banking on opposition to the NC-Congress alliance, the PDP, and support from disgruntled candidates running as independents after being denied tickets by their parties. “There are 908 candidates in the fray, and 40 per cent of them are independents,” said a political analyst. “This has led to allegations that most have been propped up by the BJP to divide the vote. Some of them have a good chance of winning because they have won elections in the past and have support in their constituencies.” The BJP is particularly eyeing candidates associated with the JeI.

The party is also facing challenges in Jammu, its traditional stronghold, where many workers are unhappy over the denial of tickets to 10 senior leaders, including former deputy chief minister Dr Nirmal Singh and Kavinder Gupta. To address this, Singh and Gupta were named the J&K election campaign committee chairman and the state election management committee head.

Despite these efforts, some BJP leaders who were denied a ticket have decided to contest as independents. “Tickets have been given to those who have joined the party recently,” remarked a BJP leader. “Those who worked for the party for decades have been dropped.”

The BJP is confident that anger among the workers will not impact its performance due to its strong nationalist and religious appeal to the majority community in Jammu. However, given the surge in the Congress vote share in Jammu during the Lok Sabha polls and the party’s alliance with NC, the BJP’s target of securing a lion’s share in the overwhelmingly Hindu districts of Udhampur, Kathua and Samba, remains a challenge.

can-the-nc-congress-alliance-reshape-the-future-of-jammu-and-kashmir

Sat Sep 14 13:23:02 IST 2024

The forming of an alliance between the Congress and the National Conference (NC) for the assembly polls in Jammu and Kashmir is a significant development. A similar alliance, aimed at countering the BJP, had shown promising results in the Lok Sabha polls―the NC secured two of the three seats in Kashmir, while the Congress, despite losing two seats in Jammu to the BJP, increased its vote share.

Together, the NC and the Congress won 41.6 per cent of votes in the Lok Sabha polls, and led in 41 of the 90 assembly segments. The BJP, with a vote share of 24.4 per cent, led in 29 assembly segments. The People’s Democratic Party, which was kept out of the NC-Congress alliance even though it was part of the INDIA bloc, secured 8.4 per cent of votes and led in five assembly seats.

Together, the NC, the Congress and the PDP secured around 50 per cent votes and led in 46 assembly segments. Though the choice of candidates and local factors will come into play in the assembly polls, observers believe that the broader contours will be similar to that of the Lok Sabha elections.

There is no overwhelming wave in favour of the NC-Congress alliance, even though it is expected to consolidate anti-BJP votes. With defections having weakened the PDP, the NC remains the only regional party that has weathered the aftermath of the abrogation of Article 370. The Congress aims to leverage the NC’s organisational strength to counter the BJP and reclaim its position as an important player, especially in the Hindu-majority Jammu.

The NC-Congress alliance is not without problems, though. There have been concerns about grassroots coordination and disagreements regarding seat-sharing. On August 22, after the alliance was formally agreed upon, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and leader of the opposition Rahul Gandhi addressed party workers in Srinagar, assuring them that an alliance would maintain the “respect of Congress workers”. “The workers have devoted their entire lives to upholding the Congress ideology and advancing the party’s vision. I am aware of the challenges you have faced,” said Rahul.

There was disagreement regarding sharing of seats in Kashmir and Jammu’s Muslim-majority Chenab Valley, which comprises Ramban, Doda and Kishtwar districts. The Congress, sources said, insisted that the seats they had won in the past be allocated to them. The NC, however, opposed it. As the deadlock persisted, the Congress leadership sent two senior leaders, K.C. Venugopal and Salman Khurshid, to Srinagar on August 26 to iron out differences.

After intense deliberations at NC leader Farooq Abdullah’s residence, the parties came to an agreement on seat-sharing just before the August 27 deadline for filing nominations for the first phase of the polls. It was decided that the NC would contest 51 seats and the Congress 32, with one seat each allocated to the CPI(M) and the Jammu-based J&K Panthers Party. Both the Congress and the NC will field candidates in five seats―Sopore (a separatist stronghold won twice by Congress leader Abdul Rashid), Banihal, Bhaderwah, Doda and Nagrota. “It brings us great satisfaction that we have completed the negotiations, and we will jointly fight the elections,” said Abdullah.

State Congress president Tariq Hameed Karra said the parties respected each other’s sensitivities while reviewing constituencies and finally reaching an agreement. “There will be a friendly contest in five seats where we faced difficulties in reaching an agreement,” he said.

Venugopal said the INDIA bloc’s main objective was to save Kashmir, which the BJP was trying to destroy. “That is why the NC and the Congress have come together to form a government that is friendly to the people. When we form government, there will be a common minimum programme,” he said.

Even though the alliance has tried to narrow down differences, challenges remain. The ‘friendly’ contest between the NC and the Congress in five seats could split the Muslim vote in places like Bhaderwah, where the Muslim and Hindu populations are nearly equal. In the last assembly polls, a three-way split in the Muslim vote between the NC, the PDP and the Congress had helped the BJP win the seat.

The problem of vote transfer between supporters of the two parties is also a concern. “That is something we cannot control,” said an NC leader. The alliance also faces the challenge of preventing disgruntled leaders from contesting as independents.

In the Muslim-majority Rajouri and Poonch districts, the alliance faces the test of winning the support of the Paharis, a community that is predominantly Muslim but includes Hindus as well. Five of the nine seats that are reserved for the scheduled tribes are in the region. Last year, the BJP granted ST status to the Paharis and three Hindu castes―Paddari, Kolis, and Gadda Brahmins. It caused discontent among the Gujjars and made the contests in Rajouri and Poonch highly competitive.

The BJP intends to field a few Muslim candidates in the region to bolster its chances. The rationale is that a Muslim candidate will attract both Muslim and Hindu votes, especially in seats where delimitation has altered the population ratio in favour of Hindus. The BJP’s recent induction of Chaudhary Zulfiqar Ali, a prominent Gujjar leader in Rajouri who won the 2008 and 2014 assembly polls, is a case in point.

As the first phase of the election on September 18 draws near, the ability of the NC and the Congress to address challenges and rally their supporters will be crucial. That will not only impact the outcome of the election, but also shape the future of Jammu and Kashmir.

india-has-a-robust-dam-management-system-on-paper-but-inadequate-maintenance-and-climate-change-pose-serious-threats

Sat Sep 14 15:49:56 IST 2024

Mindo, 52, points to her rebuilt verandah, a stark reminder of the floods that damaged her house in Sultanpur Lodhi’s Mandala village last year. As she offers a charpoy and a cup of tea―the warm Punjabi welcome―she recalls how water engulfed her house, even breaching the metre-high porch. “It was a nightmare,” she says. Her son Haroon, who runs a grocery shop to supplement the income from farming, nods in agreement. “We had to borrow money to rebuild, with no help from the government,” he says. Nearby, labourer Santosh Singh, 28, is still repaying the hefty loan he took to reconstruct portions of his flooded home.

The situation is no different in Talwara, about 90km from Sultanpur Lodhi. Says Jigir Singh, a rice farmer from Tadhe Pind: “My farms, spread over 12 acres, were submerged, and the crops completely destroyed.” The 55-year-old remembers seeing such floods more than 40 years ago, indicating changes in the monsoon pattern. Thousands of villages in more than 24 districts in Punjab bore the brunt of the fury of the Sutlej and the Beas; nearly 50 people died.

While in the north, the Bhakra Nangal and the Pong dams overflowed to wreak havoc downstream, the sudden gush of water from Kerala’s Idukki dam in 2018 also pointed to, as the local people put it, a major shift in rainfall. C.J. Stephen, 48, representative of the merchants’ association in Chappath on the banks of the Periyar, says that normally, even if water was released from the Idukki Dam, it would take three hours to reach Chappath. “But that day, the Idukki collector instructed us to immediately relocate products kept in our shops,” he recalls. “We informed the shop owners, but not many took the warning seriously. By evening, water from both the rains and the dam release flooded the village. Many merchants had stocked up in advance for the Onam season. They lost everything.”

In the east, the River Teesta, once said to be benign, is now seen as dangerous. The turning point came last October when a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) from South Lhonak Lake unleashed chaos at the Chungthang 1,200MW Teesta 3 hydropower project in Sikkim, killing 42 people and impacting 88,000 others across the Teesta basin. This unexpected disaster sparked critical conversations about the management and sustainability of hydropower projects across India. “We have been living in a rental home since the GLOF occurred. My house was completely damaged,” says Lakshmi Lama, 52, a resident of Teesta Bazar in West Bengal’s Kalimpong district. “The local administration gave us rent for six months. But now we are on our own. We want our home back.” People claim that the hydropower projects ignore the widespread destruction caused by incidents like the GLOF in Sikkim. “These hydro projects have killed the Teesta river. It now normally flows at the danger level. Thus, when it rains, the water comes to our doorstep,” says Suren Lohar, Lama’s neighbour. “The project authorities have failed to manage the river properly.”

The relationship between monsoons and dam management has always been tricky. Dams, or the “temples of modern India”, as former prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru called them, help with flood control, hydropower generation and storing water for dry seasons. A major chunk of water from dams is used for irrigation. Monsoons, however, come with a degree of unpredictability. Despite tech-driven forecasts that help in saving lives and property, critical concerns related to dam safety are emerging because of climate change and increasingly errant rainfall patterns across the globe.

Says Suruchi Bhadwal, director, earth science and climate change, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), “With climate change, there will be a greater number of extremes and higher precipitation in terms of rainfall, and this will certainly result in an increase in risk aspects of dams in many parts of the country.” As Archana Verma, mission director of National Water Mission, said at the annual sustainable water management conclave, “Unlike monsoon patterns in the European and western nations which are usually spread out, India gets 50 per cent of rains within 15 days and in less than 100 hours altogether in a year, which makes storing water a big challenge.”

India, the third largest dam-owning nation in the world after China and the US, acknowledges the threat. As per the National Register of Large Dams 2023, India has 6,281 large dams, of which about 70 per cent are more than 25 years old, 1,034 are between 50 and 100 years old and 234 more than 100 years old. Recent inspections have found that two dams have defects that may lead to failure and 183 dams have defects that require immediate attention. While India’s dam safety standards are comparable to those of developed nations, there have been notable instances of unwarranted dam failures and inadequate maintenance.

In response to such instances, India passed the Dam Safety Act in 2021. It led to the formation of a National Committee on Dam Safety to oversee dam safety policies and regulations, a National Dam Safety Authority (NDSA) to look into implementation issues involving states, a State Committee on Dam Safety and State Dam Safety Organisation. The law also calls for comprehensive safety reviews of all dams by independent experts, besides making it compulsory for dam owners to take time-bound safety actions. More importantly, the act mandates emergency action plans and provisions for early warning system (EWS).

Former Union power minister R.K. Singh had admitted that the presence of an EWS could have allowed the Teesta dam’s gates to be opened in time, thereby minimising the damage. Just three months before the Sikkim tragedy, gates of Pong dam in Himachal Pradesh were blocked by boulders, leading to a sudden release of water, inundating areas downstream. Sources say that the dam, managed by the Bhakra and Beas Management Board, lacks hydrological stations to measure water levels.

The sudden release of water from the Sardar Sarovar dam last September is another case in point. A report by the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People (SANDRP) states that despite advance information about rains upstream, water from the Narmada river was released at once, flooding the low-lying areas. The NDSA’s preliminary report also found that crucial time was lost in taking preparatory action. The opposition Congress in Gujarat attributed the floods to gross negligence by authorities overseeing the Sardar Sarovar Project. Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of SANDRP, says that forecast is not unreliable every time. “There have been instances when appropriate action is not taken despite advance warning, and the Sardar Sarovar incident is a clear example,” he says.

An official at the Pong dam, however, pointed at the dilemma faced by the engineer who has to ensure the timely release of excess water to prevent floods, and also see to it that the dam is full by September 30, the last day of the monsoon. “His job is on the line if he is not able to perform either of the tasks,” he says. “And with uncertainty in rainfall and a lack of trust in forecast, this job has become even more difficult.”

Experts believe that the Dam Safety Act has the potential to plug such gaps. The World Bank, which is partly funding India’s ambitious Dam Rehabilitation and Improvement Project (DRIP), has prepared a report on the increasing complexity between erratic rainfall patterns and dam safety. “The risks to dams are real and India is on the right path to address them,” says a World Bank official. With financial assistance from the World Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, India, under DRIP phase II and III, aims to rehabilitate 736 dams in 19 states with a budget outlay of Rs10,211 crore for 10 years.

However, sources say the pace at which early warning systems are being installed does not inspire confidence. Only 220 of 6,281 large dams have been equipped with EWS since the passage of the act. Also, concerns have been raised about the available manpower to implement the act. “Around 200 people from the Central Water Commission (CWC) have been given the additional charge of dam safety work. This shows the lack of manpower to undertake the mammoth task,” says a source.

Moreover, rule curves of dams need to be updated to avoid disasters, says Thakkar. Rule curves are target levels to be maintained in the reservoir during different periods of a year, under different conditions of inflows. Vijay Kumar, whose Jomiso Consulting Ltd designs EWS, seconds Thakkar’s point, adding that “there is also an urgent need for Integrated Reservoir Operation, which entails linking together of operations of all dams on any single river”.

After last year’s breach of Pong and Bhakra dams, a committee headed by the CWC was formed. Although its report is still awaited, the CWC shared a revised rule curve for Pong dam, besides approving eight sites in the catchment to strengthen hydrological observatory. The Central Electricity Authority has issued advanced standard operating procedures for installing EWS and listed 46 dams needing immediate attention.

Experts also underscore the ecological impacts associated with dam construction worldwide, leading to biodiversity loss, disruption of crucial ecosystem services and threats to local communities’ livelihoods. Referring to the damage caused in Sikkim, Subir Sarkar, retired professor of Geography in North Bengal University, says, “Lack of afforestation and unregulated construction in the catchment area are major factors for the situation Teesta has landed in.” Adds Praful Rao of Save The Hills, an NGO that works in disaster management in North Bengal and Sikkim, “Scientists from Hyderabad-based National Remote Sensing Centre had alerted the government on the high vulnerabilities of the South Lhonak lake for GLOF. However, the authorities turned a blind eye and the result is for everyone to see.”

It is that time of the year when fears of deluge loom large. The Teesta region has been on high alert as landslides wreak havoc. Viral landslide videos from the Himalayas trigger memories of the havoc unleashed in Manali last year. The Delhi deluge is still fresh in the minds of people. Areas downstream of Idukki and Mullaperiyar are also on alert. Stephen notes that Chappath has been the focal point of protests demanding the decommission of the Mullaperiyar dam. The reservoir, he says, is situated in a seismic zone and the region is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Fear grips Mindo every time she hears about rains in the hills. Sitting on her charpoy, she prays for the monsoons to pass without breaching her porch.

With Nirmal Jovial and Niladry Sarkar

central-water-commission-chairman-kushvinder-vohra-interview-dam-security-measures

Sat Sep 14 12:01:02 IST 2024

Interview/ Kushvinder Vohra, Chairman, Central Water Commission

CENTRAL WATER COMMISSION chief Kushvinder Vohra, who heads the National Committee on Dam Safety, spoke to THE WEEK on dam management, climate change and inter-state issues. Excerpts:

What are the steps being taken to mitigate the effects of climate change vis-a-vis dam safety?

Some key initiatives include Dam Rehabilitation and Improvement Project (DRIP) to improve the safety of select dams. Under DRIP, guidelines and manuals for agencies responsible for dam management are issued. In addition to structural measures, impetus on non-structural measures like preparation of operation and maintenance manual, emergency action plan, early warning system for inflow forecasting and timely dissemination of water release information to the downstream authorities are also being implemented…. Risk-based screening of dams has been introduced. Establishment of International Centre of Excellence for Dams to carry out advanced research and development and providing need-based support to the dam owners in addressing complex issues is another step. CWC is also working on modifications in the guidelines for dam designs, considering the potential impacts of climate change such as changes in precipitation patterns and increased frequency of extreme weather events like Glacial Lake Outburst Flood.

What are the changes that have been brought in since the passage of the Dam Safety Act?

The Dam Safety Act 2021 is a landmark legislation that brings a paradigm shift in the way we manage, operate and maintain our dams…. Some of the changes brought about include focus on proper surveillance and robust institutional mechanisms. The formation of the National Committee on Dam Safety, National Dam Safety Authority, State Committees on Dam Safety and State Dam Safety Organisations is a case in point. Besides, the number of pre- and post-monsoon inspections have increased from 1,200 before the enactment of the act to 12,000 annually.

Are there any penal provisions in the act?

The act allows for punishment if a dam operator fails to comply with any provision of the legislation. If obstruction or refusal to comply with directions results in loss of lives or imminent danger, the one responsible shall be punishable with imprisonment up to two years.

Are inter-state issues a hindrance to dam safety?

Dam safety is an issue that concerns all. Hence, no hindrance has been felt on dam safety due to inter-state issues…. Coordination, collaboration and communication between state and central agencies, dam owners, local communities and NGOs are key. The issues are resolved amicably.

dam-and-levee-consultant-eric-halpin-interview

Sat Sep 14 11:58:16 IST 2024

Interview/ Eric Halpin, dam and levee consultant

ERIC HALPIN, WHO WORKED as an adviser to India’s dam rehabilitation project, has only good things to say about India’s Dam Safety Act, 2021. But a lot is riding on its proper implementation as consequences of dam failure are much graver in India than in any other country, says Halpin, who was with the US Army Corps of Engineers for 40 years and is leading its Agency Dam and Levee Safety Programs. Excerpts from an interview:

How real is the impact of climate change on dam safety and management?

The effects of climate change on dam safety can now be directly estimated. All the dams and levees are now not only dealing with changes in rainfall patterns but also rise in sea levels, affecting the performance of the infrastructure. The harder part is the inland hydrology. The storms are now more frequent, intense and of longer durations. There is both too much water and too little water―droughts and floods. It is much harder to estimate spatial and time variability. Dams should now become one of the ways to mitigate the impacts of climate change. We should make them to either store more water in droughts or be more effective in flood control conditions to mitigate the downstream effects of flooding.

How can that be done?

It requires some changes in dam safety. One big challenge is to recognise that operations, particularly in a place like India, need to be more nimble. It means probably going from water operations based on water on the ground to water in the air. In the US, we call that forecast-based operations. It enables you to make early releases in case of a big storm or hold longer for a big drought. For India, the consequences of dam failure are much graver than any other country in the world. India has multiple dams with 10 million or more people living below them. Just a small change in hydrology can have a big effect on the dam’s performance.

What is your take on India’s Dam Safety Act?

India probably has one of the most, if not the most, modern dam safety legislation. There are a couple of reasons for it: One, it is fully risk-informed on par with the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and many countries in Europe. Two, the way the Indian government is engaging with institutions like the World Bank for infrastructure funding and using it as a leverage with the states, nudging them to adopt risk practices. Dams are central to agriculture in India. Set aside the fact that people can be killed by a dam failure, the loss of water for irrigation could be even more consequential. There is a lot riding on what is in the law and what is in practice. The start has been very effective, but there is a tremendous amount of work to be done.

trinamool-congress-rajya-sabha-member-sagarika-ghose-interview-kolkata-doctor-rape-murder

Sat Aug 31 16:49:28 IST 2024

Interview/ Sagarika Ghose, Rajya Sabha member, Trinamool Congress

MAMATA BANERJEE HAS never shied away from a political challenge. But the rape and murder of a trainee doctor at R.G. Kar Medical College and Hospital in Kolkata seems to have put her government in West Bengal on the back foot. After a thumping victory in the assembly elections in 2021, her Trinamool Congress Party had performed well in the Lok Sabha elections this year and increased its seat share despite facing allegations of scams, sexual assault and land-grabbing against its leaders.

The Trinamool has always received strong support of women voters thanks to Mamata’s aura and her welfare schemes. But now women also seem upset about her government’s failure to protect a young doctor at a hospital. A barrage of misinformation spread through social media did not help, either. But the Trinamool has now started countering the rumours and setting things right. At the forefront of that mission is Rajya Sabha member Sagarika Ghose. “What happened was social media took off in a certain direction, guided by the BJP IT cell and by certain vested interests, which kept on putting out various fake theories,” she says. “We cannot expect media sensationalism to determine the narrative of a law and order investigation or a criminal investigation.” Excerpts from an interview:

Q/ Did the Mamata Banerjee government and the Trinamool Congress fail to understand the gravity of the situation initially?

A/ I would not agree with that because within hours of the crime taking place, our chief minister was on the scene. She was in touch with the police and the family from August 9, the day the body was discovered. It was all Mamata Banerjee calling for speedy investigation in the case. It was not a case of failing to register the importance. What happened was social media took off in a certain direction, guided by the BJP IT cell and by certain vested interests, which kept on putting out various fake theories. An investigation takes place according to the gathering of evidence, the police procedures, the formal established legal procedures. So, we cannot expect media sensationalism to determine the narrative of a law and order investigation or a criminal investigation. We were not uninformed on the nature and the gravity of the crime, but we were led to counter the fake theories that began on social media, largely because of the operations of the BJP IT cell.

Q/ Do you think the government failed to arrive at a single-point decision on how to deal with the situation? Did the division within the party affect decision making?

A/ There were certain lapses. I won’t deny that. But we have to separate the surround sound from the actual law and order investigation into the crime that took place. The body was discovered on the morning of August 9 in the seminar hall. The police arrived on the scene and a general entry diary was recorded at 10:10am. Unnatural death was registered at 1:45pm. The autopsy was done by a board of autopsy surgeons in the presence of the judicial magistrate, the mother of the victim and five female doctors as per the request made by the family of the deceased. The entire procedure was videographed. Then the body was handed over at night to the family. And at 11:45pm, the police registered the FIR. This was explained to the court when the court asked why the delay in filing the FIR.

The police gave a minute-by-minute account of the day to the Supreme Court. The court asked very tough questions, but in the end accepted the version of the Kolkata police. The police had cracked the case. They had found the accused within 24 hours. DNA testing and DNA matching were done.

The principal (Dr Sandip Ghosh) was transferred (Ghosh resigned on August 12 and was appointed principal in another state-run medical college), but his transfer was revoked. He is now on long leave. There might have been gaps in accountability there. I don’t think it was the chief minister’s decision to transfer the principal. It was done by the health department. It was certainly an accountability lapse on the part of the administration. The principal failed to provide a safe environment at the R.G. Kar Medical College and Hospital. And for that, he should have been held immediately accountable. I don’t think these lapses occurred due to divisions within the party.

The West Bengal government has come up with a programme for women who are working on the night shift called Rattierer Sathi. We have enumerated a list of steps that the government is taking to make sure that women who are working on the night shift have access to adequate restrooms and also can access security helplines through a mobile app that we are developing. A young life has been tragically lost. A daughter of Bengal has been lost. Her dreams have been snuffed out. We are anguished over this. We share your anguish, as women politicians particularly. We feel the best tribute to her is not letting this happen again. We will do our best to ensure that this doesn’t happen again.

Q/ Did Dr Sandip Ghosh’s proximity to Mamata Banerjee affect the investigation?

A/ I don’t think proximity to Mamata Banerjee stops anyone from being prosecuted. We have several ministers of the Bengal government who are currently in jail. You can be known to Mamata Banerjee, but if there are crimes against you, if there are charges against you, you will be prosecuted and jailed. The doctor may have known Mamata Banerjee; I as a senior journalist knew Mamata Banerjee. She used to send me New Year messages also. She is the chief minister of the state. She knows a wide range of people.

The case is now with the CBI. If there is evidence against this doctor, he will be prosecuted. There’s no question about that.

Q/ The protests happening in Bengal have become a movement. What would be the outcome of this movement?

A/ In Uttar Pradesh, if you protest, your home is bulldozed. But in Kolkata, you can protest, you can attack the police, and the police observe restraint. They only reacted when the law and order was threatened. The idea was to provoke the police. The idea was to get the police to do something which would be termed a police excess and then to bring on President’s rule. That is what the BJP wants. They want to dismiss an elected government, recapture lost ground. The Nabanna Abhijan protest on August 27 showed the BJP’s desperation.

But I would make a huge distinction between the BJP’s protests and what has been going on in the rest of the time in Kolkata. Protest is a fundamental right and we feel the anguish of citizens. No protest has been stopped. There have been protests by women’s groups, by specially-abled groups, by mothers, by junior doctors. We are not only allowing these protests to happen, but we are listening to them. These protests will certainly galvanise the Bengal government to take further steps to ensure the safety of women.

Q/ The Trinamool Congress has always swiftly dealt with social media campaigns against it. What went wrong this time?

A/ The social media can often take off in a certain direction. Those who are investigating a crime have to investigate the crime. You can’t expect the police to give real-time tweets on what exactly they are trying to do. Maybe a little bit of time was lost in that lag when all these theories were spinning around. But I think we have covered a lot of ground now. And a lot of this misinformation, rumours and theories are being challenged and set right.

I would appeal to the media to understand what a crime is. It takes a bit of time for a crime to be investigated and for evidence to emerge. But if you are on social media and speculating wildly about all kinds of theories, then you are making life difficult for the police. It was also compounded by the fact that the BJP jumped in and started spewing a lot of fake news from its handles. I think that has been corrected now.

Q/ Women voters in Bengal have always had Mamata Banerjee’s back. Do you think they are upset with her now?

A/ Everybody is angry. It is not just women. Young people are angry, the old are angry. A cheerful young doctor with the whole life ahead of her has been raped and killed at a place of healing. She was going to heal people. And she was cut down by this vicious criminality. So there is a lot of anger. And there is a lot of questions being asked as to why we could not keep her safe.

People are angry, but I think they see sincerity in Mamata Banerjee. She has been talking continuously to the police and to the family of the victim. She has dedicated the Trinamool Chhatra Parishad foundation day to her. And she has also said a big sorry to our daughter and to all women who have suffered at the hands of criminals and who have suffered crimes. She is anguished beyond belief. She is heartbroken. That is why she is asking for capital punishment for the culprit. People will see that Mamata Banerjee has always stood by the victim and is sincere in whatever she is trying to do.

maharashtra-assembly-polls-may-not-be-a-straightforward-mva-versus-mahayuti-affair

Sat Aug 31 12:55:41 IST 2024

On August 23, more than a thousand people gathered at a ground behind the Shahu sugar cooperative in Kagal, near the Karnataka border in Kolhapur district. The sugar cooperative was launched a few decades ago by Vikramsinh Raje Ghatge, the late head of the Kagal royal family. The meeting was convened by his son Samarjeet, who is close to Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis. Samarjeet wanted to decide his future course of action after it became clear that the Kagal assembly seat would go to sitting MLA and minister Hasan Mushrif of the Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar) in the upcoming polls.

The Ghatges and Mushrifs are known political opponents. In 2019, Samarjeet had contested as an independent against Mushrif (that time the seat went to the undivided Shiv Sena which was in an alliance with the BJP) and finished second with over 88,000 votes. Now with the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP being part of the ruling Mahayuti along with the BJP and the Shinde faction of the Sena, the BJP is unable to deliver on the promise it made to Samarjeet that he would be the party's candidate from Kagal in the 2024 assembly elections.

Two weeks ago, THE WEEK revealed that Samarjeet, who is in his early 40s, would raise the banner of rebellion and join the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP to contest against Mushrif. He refused to speak to this correspondent back then, but this time, he opened up. “The party [NCP-Sharad Pawar] will announce (Samarjeet’s joining date, which is said to be September 3). It is the party’s prerogative. There is no development in Kagal. We do not have a dialysis centre here. We have to go to Kolhapur or Nipani or Gadhinglaj.” When asked whether Fadnavis had promised to make him an MLC (member of legislative council),Samarjeet said he was not interested. “I am interested in getting elected by the people.” He is in touch with nearly 25,000 supporters through WhatsApp groups. He has also given jobs to nearly 4,000 people through his Shahu group.

Shivaji Magdum, a Samarjeet supporter and former sarpanch of Ekondi village, said the BJP did not do injustice to Samarjeet. “We are not opposed to the BJP, but we are opposed to Mushrif. He is enemy number one for us. Even die-hard BJP supporters in Kagal will vote for Samarjeet,”said Magdum.

Shakila Shane Diwan, a woman supporter of Samarjeet, said Muslims like her would vote for him. “I feel Fadnavis did not do justice to him. The BJP played politics of convenience,”said Shakila.

Kagal’s political history revolves around leaders and not parties. The constituency was represented by the late Sadashiv Mandlik, a close Sharad Pawar aide, for a long time. When Mandlik moved to the Lok Sabha, Mushrif became MLA in 1999. Since then, he has represented Kagal. Samarjeet gave him a tough fight in 2019, despite contesting as an independent. Now his supporters want him to contest once again.

Around 50km from Kagal is Radhanagari constituency, currently held by Prakash Abitkar of the Eknath Shinde faction of the Shiv Sena. If Samarjeet has raised the banner of rebellion in Kagal, in Radhanagari it is K.P. Patil, a Pawar family loyalist who sided with Ajit when the NCP split. He now wants to return to the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).

“In the Lok Sabha elections, we worked for Congress candidate Shahu Maharaj. I have been thinking since then [about joining the MVA],”said Patil, who lost to Abitkar in 2019. He is waiting to see which MVA partner would get the Radhanagari seat and plans to make his move accordingly.

Another leader facing a similar dilemma is Harshvardhan Patil from Indapur. Coming from a Congress family, he first got elected as an MLA in 1995 as an independent. He declared support to the Shiv Sena-BJP government and managed to become a minister of state. He later joined the Congress and remained an MLA till 2014. In 2014, when all parties fought assembly elections independently, Harshvardhan lost to Datta Bharne of the NCP. In 2019, when it became clear that Bharne, a close aide of Ajit Pawar, would retain Indapur, Harshvardhan joined the BJP. It was Harshvardhan who said that after joining the BJP, he sleeps peacefully without worrying about any agencies.

Bharne is likely to contest from Indapur once again and it has put a question mark over Harshvardhan’s future. His supporters want him to rebel and his daughter Ankita has said that he will contest as an independent. But Harshvardhan has not made any public statements so far.

Sharad Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule reportedly said that Harshvardhan was a big leader and that he would take a decision that would benefit the entire state. This has led to speculation that he was in talks with Sharad Pawar and could contest as an independent against Bharne. “Media has been discussing all options for Harshvardhan, but has not talked about the possibility of him returning to the Congress. I will not be surprised if he returns to Congress and then Sharad Pawar gives up the claim on Indapur seat so that Harshvardhan can contest on a Congress ticket,”said political analyst Abhay Deshpande.

Such developments signify that assembly elections are not going to be like Lok Sabha elections which was a straight fight between the MVA and the Mahayuti. Deshpande said emerging trends showed that ambitious leaders who controlled about 50,000 votes could either switch parties or contest as independents, giving rise to the possibility of independents getting elected in large numbers like it happened in 1995.

“Everything depends on how seat sharing takes place,”said Deshpande. “There are Ajit Pawar MLAs like Sunil Tingre and Atul Benke who have given the indication that they will return to Sharad Pawar's party. In every assembly election, established second-rung leaders make a switch if they do not see the possibility of getting a ticket. So seat sharing is going to be very crucial for both alliances to keep their flock together and reduce chances of rebellion.”

hema-committee-report-highlights-unscrupulous-trends-in-malayalam-film-industry

Fri Aug 23 16:07:06 IST 2024

Films in the drama genre exploring complex emotions, moral conflicts and psychological challenges tend to do well in Malayalam. The formation of a three-member committee―headed by Justice K. Hema―by the Kerala government to study the issues faced by women in cinema in July 2017, following the abduction and sexual assault of a prominent actress, and the events that unfolded until the partial release of the committee’s report on August 19, have all the hallmarks of such a compelling drama.

Though released in a redacted form to protect the privacy of the respondents, the report revealed alarming instances of sexual harassment and exploitation. Malayalam cinema, it said, was controlled by an all-male “power group”, which wielded significant influence over casting and production. And women feared retaliation or blacklisting if they opened up.

Since the formation of the committee, the government had expressed its commitment to introducing legislation to protect women and to address the undesirable trends in the industry. However, the report remained in cold storage for over four years. The government’s commitment to releasing the report or taking action based on its findings were questioned frequently. “The government could have released the redacted version much earlier,” said political observer and lawyer A. Jayasankar. “It should have acted on the recommendations and introduced legislation for women’s safety in the film industry.”

The Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace (Prevention, Prohibition and Redressal) Act, commonly known as the PoSH Act, is a crucial piece of legislation aimed at creating a safe work environment for women. Screenwriter Deedi Damodaran, one of the founding members of the Women in Cinema Collective (WCC), which played a key role in convincing the government to set up the Hema committee, said the WCC had to pursue legal action to enforce the implementation of the PoSH Act on film sets. “Even after the court’s verdict that the PoSH Act should be enforced, it has not been implemented,” she said.

The PoSH Act mandates the formation of an Internal Complaints Committee (ICC) in organisations. In 2022, the Kerala Women’s Commission asked the government to establish a system for internal complaints redressal in the film sector. M. Renjith, former president of the Kerala Film Producers’ Association, said theirs was the first organisation to take steps to exclude individuals involved in criminal cases. “However, many film projects in Kerala are not registered with the association or fall under its oversight.” The Hema committee has recommended to address this anomaly.

The committee also observed that while the PoSH Act protected women in the workplace, women in cinema could face sexual harassment even before they reached their actual workplace―the shooting location. The committee was “hesitant to recommend the constitution of the ICC” as it felt that the industry was under the control of certain producers, directors and actors―all male―who could coerce ICC members to deal with the complaint in a manner they wanted. Instead of the ICC, the committee recommends an independent tribunal under an “appropriate statute”.

Acclaimed editor and WCC member Bina Paul clarified that this was not a discrepancy. “When we requested the ICC, we did not know when the committee report would be published. But we knew that there was a law of the land that was not being applied to the film industry. There are many challenges in applying the law to this industry―it is contractual, short-term and involves many complexities. However, we felt an immediate solution was needed, and that was why we moved court.”

Saji Nanthyattu, general secretary of the Kerala Film Chamber of Commerce, said the organisation set up an ICC consisting members from seven trade bodies in 2022 itself. “We also mandated that each producer must create an ICC [on sets] and submit the list to the Chamber,” said Nanthyattu. “However, not a single complaint has been filed in nearly 500 films made since then. Now they claim there is fear of filing complaints―I don’t understand that logic. Even underprivileged women have no fear of raising complaints. These are people with education and privilege, and they say they fear complaining to the ICC.”

Nanthyattu said there were practical challenges in the successful functioning of a tribunal in the film industry. “If a complaint arises on a location, who will the woman approach? It is easier to go to a police station. So, this could become a farce,” he said of the proposed tribunal. Notably, the Adoor Gopalakrishnan committee, which submitted its report a decade ago, recommended amending the Cinema Regulation Act and establishing a regulatory authority with quasi-judicial powers to address undesirable trends.

The responsibility now lies with the government to implement the Hema committee’s recommendations. P. Sathidevi, chairperson of the state women’s commission, said the commission would make an official recommendation for the implementation of the report. “Our understanding is that the committee has recommended the establishment of a tribunal to address not only sexual harassment complaints, but also issues like work bans, pay disparities and inadequate workplace facilities.”

The culture ministry has set up a committee headed by filmmaker Shaji N. Karun for creating a “film policy” for the state. Karun said the policy would bring “discipline” to the industry and would incorporate recommendations by the Hema committee. The ministry is also organising a conclave in November where stakeholders from Malayalam and other film industries will discuss major issues. The WCC has demanded gender issues to be the key topic of discussion at the conclave. Culture Minister Saji Cherian said all issues relating to cinema and the serial sectors would be addressed.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan did not rule out setting up a judicial tribunal as suggested by the Hema committee. But he hinted that given the financial situation of the state, it could take some time. For the Malayalam film industry, a happy ending seems unlikely at the moment.

national-commission-for-scheduled-castes-chairman-kishor-makwana-interview

Sat Aug 24 15:30:03 IST 2024

Interview/ Kishor Makwana, chairman, National Commission for Scheduled Castes

The Supreme Court's judgment on sub-classification of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes has triggered an intense social and political debate. Kishor Makwana, chairman of the National Commission for Scheduled Castes, says it is very difficult to implement it. Excerpts from an interview:

Q. How do you view the Supreme Court's judgment on sub-classification of scheduled castes and scheduled tribes?

A. The system of reservation provided for under the Constitution is meant to ensure that the social strata left behind because of the caste system and the practice of untouchability in the Hindu community should come into the social mainstream. The Supreme Court has said that there should be quota within quota within the Scheduled Castes and scheduled tribes to ensure that some specific sections that have not benefited from reservation should also benefit from it. But what will this lead to? It is essential to assess how beneficial the classification will be. Additionally, it is crucial to evaluate the progress of the most backward sub-castes within the SC community and whether they have received social justice.

Q. The court has also observed that creamy layer concept could be applied to the Scheduled Castes.

A. There is another observation made by the Supreme Court, about creamy layer. Today, any individual belonging to the Scheduled Castes, even if he has become a doctor, engineer, scientist, industrialist, has done well from the economic point of view, when he goes in the midst of the community, how will he be treated? He will not be treated based on his economic prosperity. He will be treated like a Dalit. So creamy layer concept fails here. Hence the suggestion which the Supreme Court has given is not in the interest of the society. Even today, I see in many cities that in the flats or housing societies in upper class areas, even if a person is a doctor, he is not given a house. Discrimination does not get over with economic prosperity. The Constitution too has not made the provision for reservation based on economic criteria. The criteria for reservation in the Constitution is inequality due to caste system and untouchability. There is no harm if those within the SC community who are well-off voluntarily choose to forgo their reservation benefits.

Q. The Supreme Court has said the states can sub-classify SC/ST. Can it be implemented?

A. It is very difficult to implement it. It is everyone's responsibility to ensure that the person at the lowest rung within the SC community does not get left behind.

Q. So you feel that this cannot be implemented at present?

A. It should be left to the Scheduled Castes. Some reflection should happen within the community on ensuring that no section is left behind.

Q. Now, it is up to the states to implement it and some states such as Telangana and Karnataka have said they will implement the Supreme Court judgment.

A. Some states are expected to go ahead and implement it (sub-categorisation). They will do it looking at the state-specific conditions. Some will do it based on political considerations because unfortunately, while the framers of the Constitution had social justice in mind while providing for reservation, in the current scenario, reservations are decided on completely different considerations.
It has become completely political. This is not right. It is also antithetical to the basic values of the Constitution.

Q. The Commission had in the past too opposed the idea of sub-categorisation of Scheduled Castes.

A. Yes, twice before the Commission has rejected the idea of sub-categorisation of Scheduled Castes. The Commission has stated that the system of reservation for Scheduled Castes should not be tinkered with.

Q. A Committee headed by the cabinet secretary was set up some months ago to study the issue of sub-categorisation of Scheduled Castes. Was the Commission consulted by the panel?

A. No, we were not approached by the committee.

Q. The Supreme Court's own view on the matter earlier has been that there cannot be sub-classification of Scheduled Castes.

A. Sometimes, the decisions of the Supreme Court do evoke surprise. Over the past 70 years, there have been discussions about reservation, sometimes in the name of religion and at other times about providing reservation to converted SC-ST individuals. This is against the fundamental spirit of the Constitution. It is a political game. This was not the view point of Bababaheb Ambedkar or other leaders of that time.

Q. Can some legal safeguard be brought by the government on this issue?

A. I am not aware of what the government is thinking on the issue. However, the Prime Minister has given an assurance to the MPs belonging to the Scheduled Castes and scheduled tribes who went to meet him that the government is not in favour of implementing creamy layer for these communities.

Q. But the government has not said anything clearly on the issue of sub-classification.

A. Efforts should be made to help those sections that are still more backward within the Scheduled Castes compared to others.

Q. Any concerns that sub-classification, if implemented by the states, could also be decided based on political considerations?

A. Yes, of course, that concern is there. The states which have said yes, such as Telangana or Karnataka, their motive is political and not helping the most backward castes or because they respect the Constitution.

former-naval-captain-and-author-alok-bansal-interview-gwadar-port-strategic-importance

Sat Aug 24 11:22:33 IST 2024

Interview/ Captain Alok Bansal, director, India Foundation, and author, Gwadar: A Chinese Gibraltar

Captain Alok Bansal’s Gwadar: A Chinese Gibraltar is the result of 18 years of painstaking research. The Gwadar saga stretches back even further.

Pakistan had zeroed in on Gwadar to build a mega seaport in 1964, six years after acquiring it from Oman. The port would have the potential to accommodate super tankers and mother ships. And, that would be vital to attract the transit trade of central Asian nations. Moreover, it would allow Pakistan to keep an eye on the entire traffic to and from the crucial Persian Gulf.

But, work on the port began only in 2001. While the construction is almost complete, various associated projects are still in phases of development, including connectivity by road, rail and an airport. In 2013, the China Overseas Port Holding Company took over the leasing rights of the port and consequently Gwadar became a lynchpin in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Gwadar takes away the maritime advantage India enjoys over China in the Indian Ocean and embeds China in the northern Arabian Sea, thereby threatening India’s maritime security. Also, it adds to Chinese and Pakistani capability to threaten India’s energy security.

THE WEEK spoke to Captain Bansal on Gwadar. Edited excerpts:

Q Why do you call Gwadar a Chinese Gibraltar?

A Gibraltar controls access to the Mediterranean. This has been a British possession on the southern coast of Spain, another country. But Britain, by its presence in Gibraltar, controls any entry or exit from the Mediterranean towards the Atlantic. Similarly, and to some extent even more, because Gwadar is at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, China can control any traffic that is entering or exiting the Persian Gulf. Here we also need to understand that unlike the Mediterranean, which is open at both ends, the Persian Gulf can only be exited from one point―the Strait of Hormuz―and Gwadar is just outside the strait. So any maritime position there can monitor every vessel that is leaving or entering the Persian Gulf.

Q What did it take so long for Pakistan to try and develop it into a major port?

A Gwadar was not part of British India. Gwadar was with the Sultanate of Oman and it continued to be so till 1958. So, it took Pakistan some time to get Gwadar back. Secondly, this part of Pakistan, the Makran coast, is grossly underdeveloped. There is no water. It is a dry, parched land. More significantly, the Baloch never reconciled to being a part of Pakistan and there have been insurgencies off and on. It is only after various reports from international institutions which found Gwadar to be extremely suitable for a transshipment port that Pakistan decided to move.

But, Pakistan did not have the finances or resources required for a mega project like this; it is the biggest infrastructure project that Pakistan has ever undertaken. It was only the Chinese support that enabled Pakistan to build it.

Q Does the Chabahar Port reduce the strategic significance of Gwadar?

A Chabahar could be a competitor for Gwadar because Chabahar is equally well-located and could emerge as an ideal gateway for central Asian states. Being Iranian territory, it could also work as a gateway for the Transcaucasus region or Caucasian states like Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia.

However, we need to understand that China is also connecting Chabahar; it is already connecting Iran with Belt and Road Initiative. So, Chinese goods are coming to Iran. In Chabahar itself, some berths have been offered to China.

From Pakistan's point of view, it is a big setback because Pakistan's primary objective is to enmesh China into its security dynamics. This is defeated if Chabahar becomes a commercially viable port. Then the shipping would go to Chabahar. So the economic development which Pakistan has planned and the viability of the CPEC to a great extent, will come under question.

Though both Chabahar and Gwadar are functioning ports, their operability is limited because of limitations of infrastructure and other issues. Gwadar has not yet become economically viable. The depths are not adequate, the infrastructure has really not come up and the hinterland has not developed. Consequently, any goods that are offloaded at Gwadar have to be taken over land to Karachi and then they head north. So that does not make them economically viable. Similarly, in Chabahar, there is a deficiency of cranes, though the road exists, but the ideal connectivity would be when train tracks come to Chabahar and connect them with the Iranian national grid. More importantly, Iran continues to be under sanctions. So these are issues which we will have to look into.

Q To what extent would Gwadar threaten India's energy security?

A It threatens India's energy security to a great extent. A major chunk of India's refining capacity is in the Gulf of Kutch. The sea line of communication, from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Kutch, passes just 40 nautical miles from Gwadar. That means any small boat in Gwadar can interdict a ship which is coming from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Kutch.

As far as India's energy security is concerned, a very large chunk is dependent on the single point mooring located in Gulf of Kutch. The ships bringing crude to the single point mooring pass close to Gwadar.

Q Why do you say that China being guided only by economic considerations is a hollow proposition when it comes to developing Gwadar?

A One of the proposals which the Chinese have projected is that they are developing Gwadar because this provides them energy security; crude can be offloaded here and taken along the CPEC to western China.

China has been trying to project that its role is purely economic, but the actions on ground do not reflect that. The way China has built a new international airport with hardly any traffic.... But, more importantly, Pakistanis have been projecting that there is a security angle to it. They have kept vast land for development of naval base and they are hoping that China gets involved in it.

China has started taking overseas bases. They have already set up an overseas base in Djibouti. And we have seen in the past that China initially denies any such events and when it happens, then they present it as a fait accompli to the world.

So, there is definitely a security dimension. Pure economics does not justify a huge investment like this.

bharat-adivasi-party-is-challenging-bjp-and-congress

Sat Aug 10 13:22:22 IST 2024

A rain-washed day is unfolding and the verdant hills and meadows of Banswara are resplendent in their green finery. Though the humidity makes it oppressively warm, the winding road leading up to the monument of Mangarh Dham is abuzz with a festival-like atmosphere. The monument has immense social and historical importance for the Bhil tribe, and the energy-sapping weather does not stop them from trudging up the hill. Many of them carry decorated bows and arrows. The mood is celebratory as groups of people arrive playing traditional musical instruments and singing joyously.

Banswara is a stark contrast to the arid terrain of Rajasthan. It is also the setting of an intense social and political churn. The mobilisation of Bhils as a group keen to assert its identity is evident as they gathered in massive numbers at the Mangarh Dham, built in remembrance of the 1,500 Bhils who were killed by the British in 1913.

Over a lakh Bhils gathered at Mangarh Dham on July 18 demanding Bhil Pradesh, a separate state for the tribal community that will comprise 43 Bhil-dominated districts in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. It is not a new demand, but has grown louder of late, as a campaign is on in the tribal-dominated districts to mobilise the Adivasis as a socially and politically aware group. The movement has now got an electoral boost, with the Bharat Adivasi Party, formed in September 2023, winning three assembly seats in Rajasthan and one in Madhya Pradesh, and also the Banswara Lok Sabha seat.

“Our main aim is creation of Bhil Pradesh,” said Rajkumar Roat, BAP’s Lok Sabha member from Banswara. “If this demand is accepted, all the issues can be resolved. Minerals are found in tribal areas, but the tax collected is disbursed in such a manner that this region is neglected. Even today, you will come across many schools where children of three to four classes sit together. Malnutrition is common. The tribals have been living in this region since pre-independence times, but they still have not got ownership of the land.”

The districts of Banswara and Dungarpur have been the epicentre of this agitation. What began as an assertion of the tribal identity in student politics took the form of an ideological forum called the Adivasi Parivar. The next step was their entry into electoral politics. The Adivasi Parivar contested the 2018 Rajasthan assembly elections under the banner of the Bharatiya Tribal Party, a Gujarat-based party founded by tribal leader Chotubhai Vasava, and won two seats. Rajkumar, one of the two winners, was the youngest member to get elected to the Vidhan Sabha. In September 2023, however, the Rajasthan leaders broke away from the BTP.

“We first applied for the name National Tribal Party,” said Kantilal Roat, one of the founding leaders of the BAP and the party’s national general secretary. “Governments and the established political parties did not want us to get registered as a political party. We gave other names, and finally the name Bharat Adivasi Party was cleared.”

The BAP was launched in September 2023 at a rally in Genji Ghata village of Dungarpur. It was allotted the symbol of hockey stick and ball, which the BAP leaders say is apt as it acts as a reminder of hockey great Jaipal Singh Munda, a tribal icon. It fielded 27 candidates in Rajasthan and eight in Madhya Pradesh in the assembly elections in December 2023, and won three and one, respectively. The breakthrough, however, was the party’s arrival on the national scene when Rajkumar won the Banswara Lok Sabha seat. He defeated the BJP’s Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya, who had defected from the Congress earlier this year. The cherry on the cake was the victory in the by-election in Bagidora, which had been vacated by Malviya to contest the Lok Sabha poll.

The party has around 2.5 lakh members and is building organisation in eight states―Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh and Assam, and the union territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli. “We had been carrying out a social awareness campaign since 2015,” said BAP president Mohanlal Roat. “We were accused of being anti-democratic and were labelled naxalites. That is when we decided we had to take the electoral plunge. We are not going to limit ourselves to raising the issues of the 30 lakh Bhils in Rajasthan. The issues we have raised go beyond the borders of Rajasthan.”

The campaign to counter what was described as Hinduisation of tribals has been central to the BAP’s political campaign and the social movement of Adivasi Parivar. “The RSS has, through lies and allurement, tried to make the Bhils believe that they were Hindu. But lies cannot survive for long. Our gods are different. Our rituals are different. Our religious ceremonies meant to mark crucial life events such as birth, death or marriage are different,” said Mohanlal.

Traditionally, the Bhils are nature worshippers. Also, every village has its own deity. Worship of ancestors is also an integral part of the Bhil faith. Recently, there was a controversy over Rajasthan Education Minister Madan Dilawar’s remarks that Rajkumar should get his DNA checked to verify if he was the son of a Hindu. In protest, a large number of BAP workers marched to Dilawar’s residence in Jaipur holding blood samples.

The cultural distinction of tribals is being emphasised in the new movement. Bhil women, for instance, are encouraged not to cover their faces. They had adopted the ghoonghat (veil) because of the Rajput influence. “Bhil women traditionally had an equal status in society. They were not required to cover their faces,” said Anutosh Roat, district president of the BAP in Dungarpur.

The legacy of the Bhil warrior Rana Punja, whose statues and paintings dot the region, best represents the socio-political campaign to assert Adivasi pride. Bhil leaders claim that Rana Punja, who fought alongside the Mewar hero Maharana Pratap against the Mughals, did so to protect the land and reject the religious angle given to the fight.

The campaign is also about the rights of the Bhils over the resources of the region. “Our fight is for jal, jungle, jameen (water, forest and land),” said Kantilal. “The tribals have the first right over resources. Our constitutional rights due to us are not provided to us.”

The tribal leaders point out that the region scores very low on the human development index. A common complaint is of neglect of schools―most of them do not have the basic infrastructure or enough teachers. Dharti Mata School in Baiyoda in Dungarpur, for instance, functions in a building that has been declared unsafe by the authorities.

Unemployment is another big issue. Many families have their menfolk working in Gujarat or Maharashtra. “My husband has been working in Gujarat for the past ten years,” said Surta Devi, whose husband is a casual labourer in Ahmedabad. She lives with her four children in a modest house in Herata village in Dungarpur. “He has been staying away from his family, his home, his children, but there is no option because we will starve otherwise,” she says.

The success of the party is driven by the youth. Young and charismatic leaders like Rajkumar and Kantilal enjoy massive following among them.

The BAP wants to be seen as equidistant from the BJP and the Congress. While its leaders have been vocal in their criticism of the alleged efforts of the right-wing organisations to diminish the tribal identity, they also say that the Congress has not done enough to address the problems of the Bhil community. The Congress had supported Rajkumar in the Lok Sabha election. “They helped us because of the circumstances,” said Mohanlal. “When the Ashok Gehlot government was in crisis, our two MLAs had helped them. It is like a loan repaid.”

The BAP’s growing influence in the region is not lost on the national parties. In November 2022, Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared Mangarh Dham a national monument in the presence of the then chief minister Gehlot at an event held at the hilltop memorial. The defection of Malviya, a tall leader in the region, before the Lok Sabha elections was an attempt by the BJP to deal with the popularity of the BAP. The Congress’s decision to support Rajkumar also has to be seen in the same context.

The newest party is indeed making waves.