The Week

dark-patterns-common-types-tips-to-identify

Sat Jan 11 12:33:21 IST 2025

IT’S A BUSY DAY, despite being a Sunday. In between finishing some pending work on the computer and house chores, I decide to order in brunch. On the food delivery app on my phone, a little box on the screen catches my eye. Titled ‘Your Usual Order’, it showed a restaurant called Dhaba By Eleven, and a Gosht Keema Mutter from there has already been added into my check-out cart.

How very convenient, one might think, except I have absolutely no recollection of this restaurant. I trawl through my past orders and discover an obscure order I had made from this restaurant once, about six months ago!

This sly trick from a food aggregator app is just a drop in the ocean of deceptive marketing and sales tricks that millions of Indians fall prey to every day on the internet. Ever seen the countdown timer telling you a particular discount is available only if you click on it within the ‘deadline’? Or an airline booking site offering you a great deal, but, at the last stage, adding hidden fees like taxes, user fees and what not? Or a platform which makes discontinuing a subscription the stuff of rocket science?

All these come under the umbrella of ‘dark patterns’, a term coined by London-based user experience designer-turned-activist Harry Brignull, to describe the treacherous ways of website and interface design that fool customers. (Examples of dark pattern, though, can be found in the physical world, too.) And, as more and more Indians, particularly those who are not proficient in English or marketing jargon, start using the internet and start ordering from all the Flipkarts and Amazons of the world, they face the risk of being fooled into losing money, personal data and privacy. (Flipkart told THE WEEK that the company had nothing to say after a questionnaire about dark patterns was sent).

Shekhar Kumar, a Bihari working in an ad agency in Gurugram, has tales galore about the dark patterning he has been subjected to. The latest came from a popular YouTube motivational speaker. “The YouTube ad for a business development course I was interested in was offering a 099 signing up offer, only available for the next 10 minutes,” says Kumar. He could not sign up at that moment for some reason. But when he went back to the site after a while the offer was still there, this time also with a deadline of 10 minutes!

“Essentially, anything that takes away consumer autonomy, free will and informed decision-making power can be qualified as a dark pattern,” said Karim Rizvi, founding director of The Dialogue, a public policy think-tank. “They are a growing concern.” The worries over the trend started building up in India in the past few years, after cheap data opened the gateways to an explosion in the use of e-commerce, apps and social media.

For many e-commerce players, it might be all par for the course, all in a day’s work. But as dark patterns become too commonplace, governments across the world are stepping in.

The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) noticed a marked rise in dark patterning in 2023. A survey by consumer research platform Dovetail says that at least 40 per cent of customers had lost money because of dark patterning. FTC is now taking cognisance of dark patterns and imposing penalties, while California and Colorado states have rules in place prohibiting businesses from engaging in dark patterns. In Europe, the EU’s Digital Services Act specifically outlaws the use of dark patterns.

Recently, India’s Central Consumer Protection Authority came out with a set of guidelines effectively banning the use of 13 marketing practices which it termed as ‘dark patterns’. The government intends to ratchet it up further by launching a mobile application that can alert consumers when online platforms use dark pattern tricks to lure internet users. Users will just have to have the app installed on their devices―it can automatically detect dark patterns on leading e-commerce sites and alert the users, who can, if they wish so, complain to the consumer protection forums.

“The specific regulation and restriction of dark patterns by the Centre is a welcome approach, especially since dark patterns pose a threat not only to society at large but also specifically to vulnerable users such as lower middle-class people, children and the elderly, owing to their limited digital literacy,” said Ranjana Adhikari, partner with the leading law firm IndusLaw.

The Advertising Standards Council of India (ASCI) did a study on the issue two years ago, pointing out how the “Indian consumer is not immune to dark patterns, and as online commerce grows, this is an increasing area of consumer vulnerability”. ASCI had categorised dark patterns as a violation of the Consumer Protection Act.

After this, the Department of Consumer Affairs summoned cab aggregators like Uber and Ola to come clean on their charges and algorithm, following complaints from user fares changing after the start of the ride and some other issues.

Back in 2021, ASCI had asked social media influencers to disclose promotions to address the issue of disguised ads. It found that around 30 per cent of ads it processed in 2021-22 were paid ads disguised as content by influencers―a kind of dark pattern that extended from cryptocurrency to personal care. Now, with a specific guideline against dark patterns and an app to detect them, would they be reined in? Not necessarily.

“In the most recent version of the consumer authority’s guidelines, there is no penalty clause,” said Disha Verma, associate policy counsel with the Internet Freedom Foundation. “So the law is not really a law.”

Another vexing issue is jurisdiction. While the consumer affairs ministry seems to have taken the initiative, who has the authority to monitor dark patterns in various sectors? Recently, for instance, the insurance regulator IRDAI notified that the dark pattern of adding travel insurance as a default option by travel portals was not lawful. Does this mean sites should be regulated subject-wise? A financial portal to be dealt with by the Reserve Bank, or an unfair trade practice by the Competition Commission, for instance? Or is it better served by the consumer affairs ministry? Or will the digital acts under process by the IT ministry, like the Data Protection Bill or the Digital India Act, show the way forward? It is not clear.

While Verma feels that self-regulation can “help keep the marketplace in check, and afford them innovation and design creativity”, Madhu Vishwanathan, associate professor (marketing) and research director at Indian Business School Institute of Data Science, Hyderabad, feels “there should be a stick in place”.

“It is a cat-and-mouse game where as regulations change, firms adapt and come up with newer practices that are going to work on the consumer psyche or exploit the biases that consumers have,” he said. “The government will find it hard to implement this law in full. It is easier to police the big companies. But once you start going into the smaller or the medium-size companies, where the practices are much more prevalent, it will be hard to police.”

Dark patterns stretch into the offline space, too. Take DigiYatra, for instance. Many airports reserve multiple entry gates for passengers who have signed up for DigiYatra and cause artificial rush at the remaining gates. It forces passengers to sign up for DigiYatra scanning.

“Government is the biggest entity engaging in dark patterns,” says Verma, pointing out the rollout of APAAR-ID card, an Aadhaar-like repository for academic records that schools are pushing students into taking, and how it is next to impossible to delete your Aadhaar or Covid-19 vaccine details. “If we were to make a consumer first awareness campaign about dark patterns, it can’t be just online. It has to have at its core consumer rights empowerment and the understanding that it is your right to say no, that it is your right to not be put in a position which you can’t escape from.”

the-story-of-maninder-singh-founder-and-ceo-of-cef-group-sustainable-waste-management

Sat Jan 04 12:08:47 IST 2025

A man always in search of the next great business idea, Maninder Singh found his wealth―and his calling―in waste. His journey has lessons for everyone.

A serial entrepreneur since age 13, Maninder, now founder and CEO of CEF Group, has taken an unconventional path. His work focuses on health, cleanliness and waste management―critical issues for urban India. While civic officials, urban planners and environmentalists grapple with these challenges, Maninder offers practical solutions.

“The solution is not rocket science!” he says. His magic formula? Innovative waste management where nothing truly goes waste. His approach is two-pronged: pioneering new waste management methods and promoting healthy farming practices in a land where soil has been damaged by years of chemical farming.

Maninder’s out-of-the-box approach earned him recognition from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who inaugurated his ambitious waste management project on Srinagar’s Dal Lake in early 2024. The project involves his team removing the weed covering the lake’s surface and turning it into manure for the orchards of Kashmir valley.

Weed in the valley

The idea was years in the making. The issue of Dal Lake’s weed first struck him during a visit in 2013 to celebrate his first wedding anniversary. While enjoying Kashmir’s beauty, Maninder was troubled by the blanket of weed choking the picturesque lake.

After years of testing the weed samples in India and abroad, he discovered it was carbohydrate-rich, making it an ideal manure when mixed with his in-house organic solutions. Around 2018, he presented his proposal to the Jammu and Kashmir government.

“We had to test everything―the temperature, climate, the amount and nature of the weed, and how it reacts. We told [authorities] that we would turn it into manure for a year, and then study the feasibility of producing CNG from it. If possible, we would produce CNG; otherwise, we would make manure,” said Maninder. “The government was very cooperative.”

Although still awaiting his CNG pipeline, he continues to sell the weed-based manure. Processing 70,000 tonnes of weed yields 20,000 to 22,000 tonnes of manure. Maninder is focused on the value; farmers who used to buy vermicompost for Rs16 for a pack of 1kg now buy his weed-based manure that retails at less than Rs10. The manure is rich in NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium) and organic carbon, enhancing soil fertility and boosting crop yield.

“This will improve the quality of our apples,” he says. “If the quality improves, the farmer selling B-grade apples can achieve A-grade [quality]. From Rs60 to Rs70 a kilo, he will increase his earnings to Rs125. So this has a real impact.”

This sense of purpose, combining business acumen with civic and environmental responsibility, did not develop overnight. Maninder’s journey began when he was young, in the dusty bylanes of small-town India.

Look ma, I’m rich!

Coming from a family of businessmen, Maninder started working at 13 when he was still in school. He took a part-time service job at a banquet hall that his father ran in Meerut. He would come home from school at 2pm and work till 8pm. In three months, though, the cocky teenager realised that he was not cut out for a salaried job. “I was paid Rs2,500 a month,” he says. “Seeing my father employ so many people, I, too, wanted to start a business.”

What business can a schoolboy start? Maninder began by organising birthday and kitty parties in the neighbourhood. Small parties for 10 to 15 people costing around Rs10,000. “Right from the start, I made a profit of Rs2,500 per party―equal to what my father paid me as salary!”

The business bug had bitten him, and Maninder started organising bigger parties. By the time he had finished his school board exams, his monthly income was in the range of Rs1.5 lakh to Rs2 lakh. “My father was supportive of me doing business while still in school,” says Maninder. “Of course, I never shared my profits with him. He didn’t have much of an idea anyway!”

His father was also unaware that Maninder, at 15 and without a driver’s licence, had purchased a Maruti 800 (registered under an employee’s name) and driven to Delhi to drop off his sister.

However, a family dispute between his father and brother disrupted his business. By then, he had transitioned from organising parties to running a franchise for a leading entrance coaching centre in his hometown. He had realised that the absence of such facilities were prompting students to travel to Kota, the coaching hub in Rajasthan.

In search of a purpose

With his business in jeopardy, Maninder left Meerut for Delhi. Helped by his business savings, the wandering spirit in him took over. He tried evening college in Delhi, before moving to Pune to study law, and soon realised that a normal life as a student did not suit him. He travelled across the country to figure out what to do with his life. “I was so used to working that I could not continue as a student,” he says.

He briefly dabbled in immigration services, with help from a relative in Punjab who was sending students to Australia and New Zealand. But the venture failed as the unruly behaviour of Indians in Australia became a problem in mid-2000s. He even attempted an online education venture, but it turned out that he was ahead of his time. The authorities shut him down, saying online teaching was not legally recognised.

Realisation struck during one of his frequent foreign trips. “I realised that there was a lot that we can bring in from abroad; you don’t need to reinvent the wheel. Technology was something which was going to drive the world, in everything we do.”

Wealth in waste

He stumbled upon an article that opened his eyes to the opportunities in waste management. “It said that, by 2030, some of the biggest companies in the world will be in waste and energy management.”

This sparked Maninder’s interest, especially since he had noticed a dichotomy in how westerners viewed India. “There is a lot of respect for India when it comes to our culture, but not much when it comes to our cleanliness. And I discovered that waste management was a big problem here.”

Maninder tried to figure out a waste management plan. He started a small business producing pellets from agri-waste, cow dung and crop stubble. The pellets could be used as coal replacement. But when the rate offered by NTPC Ltd turned out to be unviable, he travelled to the US, where he met entrepreneurs in small-scale hydropower who gave him the idea and technology to make power from the running water in streams. Maninder returned to India and implemented the plan in Uttarakhand, but it did not work out. The grid tariff was so low that the business was unsustainable.

He returned to waste management, particularly municipal waste. “We figured out the nuances, problems and gaps in India’s waste management scene, and started finding the right solutions,” he said.

The solution was obvious―proper segregation and disposal. “From 2003 to 2015, Indian cities grew. Dumping grounds, once on the outskirts, were suddenly in the middle of cities.”

Besides hygiene concerns, government-run incinerators burnt unsegregated waste, releasing harmful fumes. “We [proposed] a very simple solution: make biogas, remove CO2 [from it] to obtain bio-methane, which is essentially CNG that fuels your car,” says Maninder. His logic was clear: why import Rs1,00,000 crore worth of CNG, a fossil fuel, when India could produce bio-CNG from abundant organic waste?

While this remains a work in progress, it connected him with civic bodies, leading to the Srinagar project. Now energised, he is replicating the model at Delhi’s Ghazipur slaughterhouse, using proprietary technology to convert slaughterhouse waste into fish feed.

Food for thought

“Lead, cadmium, copper… our vegetables have levels high enough to block arteries and veins,” says Maninder. “This explains the surge in heart attacks and cancers in the past 10 years.”

Beyond waste management, Maninder is also doing his part to address the issue of excessive use of synthetic chemicals in farming. His venture Urban Farmer provides chemical-free manure for city households for urban farming. “We never use the word ‘organic’ because it is a lie,” he says. “[In India], we have used so much pesticides that the land is totally damaged. It will take the soil years to become pure organic again.”

Maninder knows that, just like his waste management initiatives, the “chemical-free” farming venture is also a small step towards sustainability. “With the support of positive people, we have been able to create a model,” he says. “We are treating waste and converting it into valuable resources like bio-CNG and manure. Now, we are focused on scaling up.”

a-photojournalist-dives-deep-into-the-flourishing-world-of-craft-chocolate-hopping-from-farm-to-fermentery-to-factory

Sat Dec 21 16:40:47 IST 2024

STORY AND PHOTOGRAPHS

Being a photojournalist is a blessing and a curse. It takes me to unimaginable places, letting me witness historic moments from ground zero. But behind the lens lies a hidden cost. Documenting wars and tragedies has left me emotionally scarred and with an unspoken burden of death and destruction. The signs are clear: I am standing at the threshold of post-traumatic stress disorder. The trauma of constant exposure to human suffering has started to reshape my view of the world, reminding me that sometimes the price of capturing history is more than we bargain for.

Once always on the move, whether for work or adventure, I withdrew into myself after the Covid-19 lockdown in 2020. The world outside was overwhelming. Movies, once my escape, now felt too violent. Books collected dust, and even the thought of a broken world order drained my spirit. I feared venturing out, even making new friends. Except for work, my world had shrunk, and I was too scared to expand it.

I sought solace in brewing speciality coffee, experimenting with everything from pour-over to syphon. I soon realised coffee culture had evolved beyond brewing my own coffee. Now, it is about global connections to source beans of different character, small-batch roasters and the artistry behind every bean character. Yet, despite the craft and science, brewing coffee had started to feel like a mundane task.

During a restaurant photo-shoot for THE WEEK, I reconnected with an old friend, Radhika Misra, a freelance PR consultant. When she offered me coffee, I declined, saying, “I only drink coffee I brew myself.”She replied, “Like craft chocolates!”That word caught my attention. I learned that a revolution was unfolding in India’s craft chocolate scene, with cacao grown in south India winning international awards. I knew that chocolates are beloved by all―from children to soldiers. In fact, during my time in the war zone in Donbas, a Ukrainian soldier taped a chocolate box cover over my helmet to hide the ‘PRESS’ letters on it to shield me from enemy snipers. That ‘cover-up’ made me look as if I was the ‘Millennium Golden Nut’! To think such a bittersweet superfood was thriving in India was thrilling. And so, I set out to explore the rich, distinctive flavours of the Indian craft chocolate.

THEOBROMA: WHEN THE ‘FOOD OF THE GODS’ CAME TO GOD’S OWN COUNTRY

Before I embarked on that delectable journey, I wanted to understand India’s cacao story. With global cacao prices soaring to Rs900 per kilogram in mid 2024, farmers in Kerala, who had once abandoned cacao for more profitable crops, were now regretting their decision. Cacao is not native to India; it was brought in during colonial times, just like tea. Cacao traces its origins to the Amazon basin, where it was considered “food of the gods” by the Olmecs, the Maya people and the Aztecs. The Maya people called their bitter, frothy beverage Chocolhaa whereas the Aztecs called it Xocolatl. Cacao beans were even used as legal tender by some Mesoamericans. Europeans introduced it to the rest of the world in the 16th century, and today cacao is largely cultivated in West Africa and Southeast Asia. Forestero, Trinitario and Criollo are the most popular cacao varieties.

In India, cacao was first planted as a garden tree during the British rule, but large-scale cultivation didn’t begin until the 1960s in Kerala, promoted by industrial chocolate makers. Over the years, it spread across south India. Now Andhra Pradesh leads in production, followed by Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

So, my first stop had to be Andhra Pradesh, where farmer Boyapati Venkateshwara Rao showed me around his multi-crop farm in Gangannagudem village in Eluru district. And that is where I first laid my eyes on a cacao tree, nestled under the shade of towering coconut trees. The tree was a riot of colours―from green to yellow to scarlet―thanks to the cacao pods. “Those are our organic workers,” joked Rao, pointing to the flies around the decaying pods. He cracked open a ripe pod for me to taste. I expected it to taste like chocolate, but it had sweet and sour notes, tasting more like a lychee. “We ferment it well to get the chocolate flavour,” Rao explained, seeing my amazement. With cacao prices rising, farmers like him are seeing a new opportunity.

As I travelled across Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, I met farmers who had embraced the bean-to-bar movement, crafting chocolate from their own beans. Unlike mass-produced varieties, these chocolate makers used 100 per cent cacao, creating some of the finest and most distinctive chocolates. India’s cacao revolution wasn’t just about growing beans and making chocolates―it was about crafting a new chocolate culture.

THE GREAT INDIAN CRAFT CHOCOLATE QUEST

My journey to uncover the best craft chocolates in India began with an obsession. What if chocolate wasn’t just a sweet indulgence, but a revolution in flavour and quality? I found a hidden world of bean-to-bar chocolate makers―over a hundred of them in India. Most of them source the beans from south India. But I was after something more specific: the chocolate makers who didn’t just craft chocolate from beans, but who grew the beans themselves. The quest led me to four extraordinary brands, each with a unique origin story and a commitment to transforming Indian cacao into world-class chocolate. These weren’t just businesses; they were passions, experiments and revolutions rooted in cacao beans.

My quest began with Manam in Hyderabad, founded by the young and passionate entrepreneur Chaitanya Muppala. With his roots in Hyderabad’s legacy brand Almond House sweet shop, Muppala’s journey into chocolate began before the pandemic. He didn’t just create a chocolate brand―he redefined the chocolate-making process from farm to bar. At Distinct Origins, his cacao fermentery, every pod is treated like royalty, with workers documenting each step of the journey from harvest to drying. The scent of fermented cacao fills the air like an intoxicating brew, and it stayed with me long after I had left the fermentery. When I finally visited Muppala’s flagship store, Manam Chocolate Karkhana in Hyderabad, it felt like stepping into Willy Wonka’s chocolate factory. Only, this one was a tribute to Indian cacao―from the bars to truffles to pralines and dragées.

Next, I travelled to Kolenchery in Kerala to meet the man behind Paul And Mike, a brand that fuses global expertise with local cacao. Founded by Vikas Temani of Synthite Group, known for its spice extracts, this brand is unique because it is powered by an industrial giant’s infrastructure and the passion of a true chocolate maker. As I toured its factory in Ernakulam, I marvelled at the sleek, high-tech machines transforming the finest cacao into award-winning chocolates. But it is the brand’s connection to its farms that really sets it apart.

The name, Paul And Mike, conjures an image of a foreign chocolate brand. But it is named after two impressive Latin American cacao farmers Temani met while he was on a research trip before the brand’s launch. Paul has an Indian connection―the cacao farmer’s ancestors migrated from India to Trinidad in the 18th century.

From Kerala, I travelled to Pollachi in Tamil Nadu, to visit Soklet, a brand that blends passion with environmental consciousness. It was founded by Harish Manoj Kumar and Karthikeyan Palaniswamy. This chocolate-making duo has turned their family farm near the Anamalai hills into a sanctuary for fine cacao. Walking through their farm felt like stepping into a jungle. Cacao pods hung from trees like ripe jewels, waiting to be harvested. The heat of the region doesn’t deter them; instead, they harness it, adding a unique character to their chocolate―spicy, fruity and unforgettable. Soklet’s ethos is clear: they are not just making chocolate; they are creating an experience, one that is as deeply rooted in their land as it is in flavour.

Finally, in the remote village of Bettampady in Karnataka’s Dakshina Kannada district, I visited the chocolate-making workshop of Balasubrahmanya P.S. and Swathi Kallegundi, the dynamic couple behind Anuttama chocolates. What began as a lockdown hobby―making chocolate for their son―grew into a full-fledged craft chocolate business. With cacao grown on their family farm, they use jaggery and dates to sweeten their chocolates, infusing them with local flavours. Their workshop, nestled amid lush greenery, is where experimentation and tradition collide. And with their unique flavour combinations, like Spicy Tang with ginger and pepper, they are pushing the boundaries of what Indian chocolate can be.

As I moved from farm to fermentery to chocolate bar, I realised that this was not just a journey through the world of chocolate; it was an exploration of India’s untold cacao story. Each region, each farm, each chocolate maker brought a new layer to the chocolate experience, which is deeply connected to the land, the culture and the people who craft it.

What struck me the most was how these chocolate makers were challenging and redefining the norms of industry. They used honest, natural ingredients―cacao grown with care, processed with precision and crafted from the heart. In their hands, chocolate was more than just a treat; it was a story, an adventure, a revolution.

I couldn’t help but reflect on the impact of cacao. The simple act of tasting chocolate had the power to release the happy hormones―serotonin, dopamine and the ultimate “bliss molecule” anandamide. With every bite, I felt connected not only to the cacao but to the journey it had taken, from farm to fermentery to my tongue. These were no ordinary chocolates; they were an embodiment of India’s rich, untapped chocolate potential.

I am savouring the last piece of an orange-cinnamon chocolate, letting it melt slowly on my tongue. The journey has been refreshing, but it has only just begun. India’s craft chocolate revolution is still in its infancy, but it is already making its mark. So, the next time you are in the chocolate aisle, remember, not all chocolates are created equal. Look for the ones that have the character, that celebrate the terroir, the craft and the quality ingredients behind them.

a-more-progressive-approach-to-naval-shipbuilding

Sat Dec 21 15:18:54 IST 2024

As India transitions to the Amrit Kaal, the development of its maritime economy is going to be essential. In this context, the proposal to set up a Maritime Development Fund (MDF), with a corpus of Rs25,000 crore, is a brilliant idea. This fund is envisioned as a corporate entity with a 21 per cent government stake. The rest of the money will be pooled from various sources, including foreign direct investment. The aim here is to revitalise our maritime infrastructure and rejuvenate the shipbuilding sector. Of course, much depends on the effective deployment of the fund to ease the business, to build world-class infrastructure and enhance productivity.

Shipbuilding

Shipbuilding comprises four segments―naval shipbuilding, commercial shipbuilding, specialised ships and large deep-sea fishing vessels. Smaller craft, such as small fishing boats, sailing craft, yachts and pleasure craft, are not included in ‘shipbuilding’ per se, but it is a segment with potential.

India’s share of global shipbuilding is a measly 0.06 per cent. In stark contrast, China, Korea and Japan account for more that 85 per cent of global shipbuilding. There is definitely something right that these countries are doing and India is not. After all, building world-class ships is well within our national capability. This is among the many aspects of maritime infrastructure in India that needs correction.

Naval shipbuilding

Naval shipbuilding involves constructing warships and submarines―tasks far more complex than building commercial ships. In general, warships and submarines are smaller and hence their design intricacies are complex. Their robustness, redundancy, shock resistance and damage control standards are stringent. Additionally, their safety requirements are extensive, as they must carry ammunition, operate aircraft and fight through damage in combat.

The overall technical complication is high because of the need to integrate weapons, sensors, machinery and equipment. Despite these challenges, India’s naval shipbuilding has progressed faster than its commercial counterpart, primarily due to two reasons:

1 The Navy has been ahead of its time, setting up its ship-design organisation in 1964. The Navy inducted its first indigenously built patrol craft―INS Ajay―built by Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers Ltd (GRSE) in 1961. The first Indian designed and Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDSL)-built major warship―INS Nilgiri―was commissioned into the Navy in 1972. Since then, the Navy has not looked back, and the fledgling design organisation has transformed into a full-fledged and professionally staffed Warship Design Bureau (WDB).

2 The lack of progress in commercial shipping and other maritime infrastructure can be attributed to India’s traditional maritime blindness. Fortunately, the past two decades have seen greater awareness of the benefits of a robust maritime sector.

Public sector shipyards

Most naval ships are built in public sector shipyards. Of these, four, namely MDSL, GRSE, Goa Shipyard Ltd (GSL) and Hindustan Shipyard Ltd (HSL) are Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) and one, Cochin Shipyard Ltd (CSL), is administered by the ministry of ports, shipping and waterways (MoPSW). Very few hulls have been built outside these yards and the experience has been less than satisfactory.

What ails naval shipbuilding?

Several impediments stand in the way of efficient naval shipbuilding. These impediments create an unfavourable environment for productivity of shipyards. Since all shipyards and the Navy are government entities, these inefficiencies are tolerated in the interest of national security. In general, this government-predominant ecosystem for shipbuilding has a reputation of being inefficient.

Single buyer, many sellers

The Navy is the only buyer since India is not yet seriously in the warship export game. Also, capacity constraints of the existing shipyards do not permit them to look seriously at exports without meeting the demands of maritime forces. So, effectively, the five public sector shipyards are the only sellers.

Seen in another perspective, the government of India is the only buyer and the government of India is the only seller, through five of its vendors. Therefore, there is a desire on the part of the government to distribute the orders equitably among its vendors. It is not that there is lack of orders. The Navy has extensive requirements, and the order books of DPSUs are filled for several years.

This sharing of the pie results in ineffective economies of scale. If seven or eight ships of the same type are to be constructed, and their production is distributed across two or three yards, none of the yards will be able to achieve the benefits of economies of scale. Further, there are likely to be variations in quality and integration among ships constructed by different shipyards.

The solution lies in nominating shipyards based on their proven track record and capacity. Assigning an entire series of seven or eight ships to one yard, and another series to a different yard would benefit both the shipyards and the Navy. For example, it is known that MDSL has expertise in building large warships, corvettes and conventional submarines. There is no sense in some other yard even competing for construction of submarines. Similarly, GRSE has rich experience in tankers, landing ships, corvettes and survey vessels.

It is heartening to observe that in some of the Navy’s newer projects, the entire line of ships has been ordered from a single shipyard.

Overriding financial considerations and undercutting competitors

The principal weakness in the government-run procurement process is overriding financial considerations. In short, the lowest bidder (L1) wins the contract. There is an added convolution in procedure. Say 10 ships are to be built and the government decides that it will give five each to two shipyards. So, it calls upon the second lowest bidder (L2) to build five at the cost of L1. In all probability, L1 would have under-quoted to obtain the contract or to maintain a healthy order-book position.

This is a triple whammy―forced losses, no economies of scale and resultant poor quality of construction by L2. If you went to buy onions and were offered rotten ones at a lower price than those of superior quality, would you buy the rotten onions? Certainly not.

An alternative to this self-defeating L1 methodology has to be found. There is enough experience in the ministry of defence and the Navy to determine if a shipyard has under-quoted. Such bids must be disqualified. A percentage variation of the benchmarked cost should be acceptable rather than going blindly for the L1 methodology. Greater weightage could be accorded to technical matters and proven yard performance.

Delays in procurement process

A common grouse of shipyards is that the procurement process―from Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) to signing of contract―is too protracted. Though timelines are laid down in the Defence Acquisition Process 2020 (DAP 20), they are often exceeded due to various reasons. As a result, costs inflate over time and shipyards find it impossible to hold the old quotations, but they often have no choice in the matter. Not just that, shipyards observe that concept and functional designs by the WDB are not available in good time, leading to delays in construction and delivery.

This is purely procedural and can be overcome by adhering to procurement process timelines. Further, the stages of procurement must be linked to the timeline for the commencement of the design process by the WDB. The linkage will ensure that the shipyard has adequate time to prepare its detailed drawings efficiently.

Standardising hull designs

Every indigenous class of ship designed by naval designers has a different hull design. The hull design is determined by the ship’s intended role, as well as the size and tonnage required to accommodate the selected machinery, equipment and crew.

Ideally, the standard fitting of major equipment should not require significant modifications to hull designs for similar roles and tonnage. However, this is not possible over long periods of time as newer technologies often force a change in machinery and equipment.

Having a few standardised hull designs will cut down on design effort, and make the shipbuilding process more efficient. The Navy could consider standardising six hull sizes based on tonnage categories―100-200 tonnes, 300-500 tonnes, 1,000-2,000 tonnes, 3,000-5,000 tonnes, and 6,000-8,000 tonnes. These hulls could easily accommodate all classes of small and large warships except tankers, amphibious ships, aircraft carriers and special purpose ships for which separate designs would be necessary.

Changing requirements

The Navy is responsible for formulating and finalising Staff Qualitative Requirements (SQRs). These SQRs are the foundations upon which the ship is eventually designed and constructed. These have to be prepared carefully and frozen at some stage so that the rest of the process can move smoothly.

The AoN for ships, which serves as the initial level of approval, is typically granted based on Outline or Preliminary Staff Requirements (OSRs or PSRs), with detailed staff requirements prepared subsequently. Finalising SQRs is a pre-requisite for undertaking the concept and functional designs at the WDB, which in turn forms the basis of detailed design and construction drawings at the shipyard.

Preparation of SQRs is a complex task with technologies and equipment becoming obsolete every few years. There are also requirements of fielding newly developed and indigenous equipment which necessitate some changes.

The solution lies in intelligent formulation of SQRs, finalising them early and completing the concept and functional designs in good time. Later, modifications could be initiated under a consultative process with all stakeholders. However, this problem is unlikely to be eliminated and allowances should be made for changes in the project cost and timeline.

Buyer nominated and buyer furnished equipment

Dissonance also arises between the Navy and the shipyards regarding Buyer Nominated Equipment and Buyer Furnished Equipment (BNE and BFE). As the names suggest, the Navy, as the buyer, either nominates vendors for sourcing specific equipment or directly procures the equipment from manufacturers to supply to the shipyard. These decisions are often driven by considerations such as R&D requirements, import needs, quality control, or inventory management.

Shipyards, however, argue that the list of nominated vendors for certain equipment is often too limited―sometimes comprising just a single source. This entails dependence on very few sources or overloading of a particular vendor with consequent time delays. They also say that the Navy overlooks several competent vendors, thereby narrowing choices.

On closer examination, it has been found that there are firms competent to manufacture and supply quality products in India which do not wish to get involved in naval shipbuilding because of tiresome testing, inspection and payment processes. Shipyards also feel that naval manufacturing standards are sometimes unrealistic whereas the Navy argues in favour of extra robustness and redundancy.

There is a need for greater dialogue between the Navy, shipyards and equipment manufacturers to enhance sources of supply for equipment, rationalise manufacturing standards, ease testing and inspection, as also make payment procedures quick, easy and totally transparent. This is one area that is susceptible to unfair practices and a strong vigilance oversight is recommended.

Dual inspections

A newly built ship and its equipment need to be inspected by competent agencies. These could be done either by the Navy, when inspections are to be undertaken as per naval engineering standards, or by competent civilian agencies such as the Indian Register of Shipping. Ships are, therefore, built either to naval standards or to class specifications. In specific cases, dual inspections are specified, which require more time and effort. Sometimes, naval and class inspection standards don’t match―creating avoidable complications.

In case dual inspections are necessary, they must be de-conflicted so that one equipment or system is not subjected to dual inspection, the requisite inspection agency clearly decided in advance and additional cost or time built into the contract.

Level-playing field: public and private enterprises

With private players such as Larsen & Toubro making an entry into naval shipbuilding, there are periodic pleas by them to be afforded a level-playing field vis-a-vis PSU shipyards. The rationale for such demands is that PSU shipyards have full government support and have their land, infrastructure and other facilities funded by the government, while private players have to fend for themselves and incur greater establishment costs.

As a counter, PSU shipyards argue that only they are subject to government strictures on procurement such as mandatory utilisation of the Government e-Marketplace and compulsory procurement of a large percentage of goods from medium, small and micro enterprises notwithstanding their capabilities, expertise or quality processes. Their inability to float global tenders unless all indigenous avenues are exhausted is another source of frustration. None of these applies to private entities, they argue.

Therefore, the government must address what constitutes a level-playing field that is in the interest of all stakeholders and beneficial to indigenous naval shipbuilding.

Conclusion

To claim that naval shipbuilding is one of India’s post-independence success stories is only partially true and a rather self-pacifying narrative. The PSU shipyards have indeed built ships over the last six decades, but collectively, India could do much better. Shipbuilding projects have―almost without exception―incurred time and cost overruns and forced quality compromises, eventually impinging upon the fighting efficiency of the Navy.

There are matters to be set right at every stage―from initial planning to final construction and delivery to the Navy. No single agency can be blamed because the malaise is systemic. Impediments are known to all who matter. Solutions are also known to all who matter. The will to make essential course corrections requires a few good people who can abandon the beaten path and take on a more progressive approach to naval shipbuilding.

Dasgupta is a former commander-in-chief of the eastern naval command.

equity-markets-what-to-expect-in-the-new-year

Sat Dec 21 13:26:29 IST 2024

Despite the corrections in the past few months, 2024 has generally been a good year for investors. Benchmark indices hit a record high in September, but a massive sell-off by foreign institutional investors in October and November led to the decline. Domestic investors, who were big buyers in 2023, continued to add to their equity investments in 2024, too, which offset the FII selling.

Will 2025 be another strong year for markets, or should investors brace for more volatility and tepid returns? THE WEEK spoke to several experts to understand what is in store.

After ending 2023 at 72,240, the BSE Sensex surged 19 per cent to touch a life-time high of 85,978 on September 27, 2024. There has been some pullback since, and the benchmark closed on December 16 at 81,748, down 5 per cent from its peak.

Midcaps and smallcaps saw a stronger rally this year than last year. The BSE Midcap index jumped about 35 per cent to a life high of 49,701 on September 24, before seeing some correction. On December 16, the Midcap index ended at 48,126, down 3.2 per cent from its peak. On the other hand, the BSE Smallcap index accelerated 34 per cent in 2024, to close at 57,227 on December 16.

In October and November, foreign portfolio investors withdrew Rs 1.15 lakh crore from India’s stock markets. The key reasons being the rising global geopolitical uncertainties, a massive stimulus announced by China to lift its economy, and expensive valuations in many pockets in the domestic market. They have returned since, buying more than Rs22,700 crore worth stocks in December. However, for the 2024 calendar year, their total equity investments of Rs10,683 crore (up to December 16) are significantly lower than the Rs1.71 lakh crore they invested in 2023.

A big talking point has been how domestic investors continued to pump in massive amounts, directly to stocks or through mutual funds, in 2024. Mutual fund folios touched an all-time high of 22.08 crore in November 2024, with retail folios at around 17.55 crore, also a record. Retail assets under management (AUM) was at Rs39.70 lakh crore in November. The industry’s net assets under management as of November 2024 were at Rs68.08 lakh crore, a 39 per cent rise rise from the Rs49.05 lakh crore in November 2023. More than Rs25,300 crore is coming into mutual funds monthly via systematic investment plans (SIP) alone.

However, a 14 per cent decline in investment into equity schemes in November―Rs35,943.49 crore, from Rs41,886.69 crore in October―suggests that they may have turned somewhat cautious. So, what is the mood of the market?

“FPIs have been on a selling spree throughout October and November, primarily driven by global news such as the strength of the US dollar, weak emerging market currencies, and the resulting EM sell-off. Additionally, slowing corporate earnings growth in India and above-average valuations have weighed on investor sentiment,” said Jay Kothari, SVP (Equities) at DSP Mutual Fund.

He pointed out that global funds remain underweight on India, while EM funds have light positions in Indian assets, suggesting that flows could return once the situation stabilises.

Ultimately, a key to strong performance of stocks is the underlying earnings growth. Post the Covid-19 pandemic, corporates saw strong earnings growth as demand across industries such as power, consumer goods, real estate and automobiles surged. Banks, too, saw balance sheets improve, with non-performing assets declining significantly. Over the financial years 2020-2024, Nifty 50 earnings grew at a 21 per cent compounded annual growth rate. However, for the current financial year ending March 2025, earnings are only expected to grow 5 per cent, noted Kothari.

India’s economy, too, has slowed. In the July-September quarter, GDP grew at 5.4 per cent, compared with 6.7 per cent in April-June and 8.1 per cent in the same quarter a year ago.

“Despite all these events (FPI selloff, weak GDP and corporate earnings data), the valuations for many sectors and businesses remain high compared to their own long-term averages,” said Raunak Onkar, fund manager at PPFAS Mutual Fund. “A lot of good businesses are priced out of their comfort zone.”

As we head into 2025, there are many things to watch out for. For instance, domestic investment related cyclical sectors are expected to re-emerge from an election-related slowdown in 2024, according to Vinod Karki, equity strategist at ICICI Securities.

On the other hand, with only two states (Delhi and Bihar) going to polls in 2025, election-related social spending might abate, which could have an unfavourable base for consumption, although rising agricultural output might have an offsetting effect, said Karki. Global trade environment could become challenging as US president-elect Donald Trump’s policies start kicking in.

Karki said capex-driven stocks such as utilities, infrastructure companies and manufacturing companies could be big beneficiaries of investment demand revival in 2025. “There are signs of bottom formation and recovery in commodity prices such as cement, metals and oil along with gross refining margins of oil companies. Current capex cycle may have additional drivers in the form of new-age sectors such as data centres, AI infrastructure, electric vehicles and green energy,” he said.

Midcap and smallcap investors may be in for some disappointment over the next year or so, after a stellar run in the past few years. “Small and midcap stocks have appreciated significantly over the past five years and may experience some slowdown or time correction in the near term. Therefore, if you are investing for just the next 9-12 months, there is a risk of disappointment. However, if you adopt a longer-term view of 3-5 years, these stocks should certainly be part of your asset allocation as they tend to provide higher absolute upside over time,” said Kothari.

Over the past few months, as valuations increased and domestic investors continued to pump in money, mutual fund houses have steadily raised their cash positions. According to a recent report, mutual funds were sitting on cash holding of around Rs1.8 lakh crore as of November 2024. It is an indication that fund houses are waiting on the sidelines and will invest the money when valuations turn more reasonable.

While PPFAS is not expecting any major correction, from time to time certain businesses as well as sectors do offer good opportunities to invest, the fund manager believes. “We would rather wait to invest at reasonable valuations than buy expensive businesses,” said Onkar.

Eventually, how corporate earnings pan out will determine stock performances in 2025. Where earnings are lacklustre, valuations will increasingly look stretched and may in turn see a correction. On the other hand, companies with strong growth and visibility will continue to trade at some premium.

“It is useful to examine individual business performance and expectations,” said Onkar. “This can help build a portfolio of high-quality businesses at reasonable prices.”

co-branded-credit-cards-create-value-for-both-customers-and-partnering-organisations

Sat Dec 21 13:21:49 IST 2024

Digital payments have picked up significantly over the last few years in India. While UPI (unified payments interface) remains the dominant platform for such payments, credit cards, too, have been growing strongly, with more and more people embracing its convenience.

According to consulting firm PwC, 16 million credit cards were added in 2023-24, and there are more than 100 million cards currently active in India. Transaction volumes and value have also risen 22 per cent and 28 per cent, respectively. PwC estimates the number of credit cards to touch 200 million by the 2028-29 financial year.

Allowing RuPay credit cards to link to UPI has been a boost for credit card growth. On an average, credit card transactions via UPI occur 21 times a month, which is four times more frequent than traditional physical credit cards, according to PwC. Overall, credit card transactions are likely to increase 21 per cent in volume and 18 per cent in value, leading to an estimated 9 billion transactions and total spending of Rs40 lakh crore by 2028-29.

Loyalty and rewards programmes are another reason people, especially the Gen Z, are finding credit cards attractive. As the usage and penetration have grown, card issuers have tapped in to the vast ecosystem, inking partnerships for co-branded credit cards that come with even more benefits, such as cashbacks on popular online platforms and accelerated rewards on partner merchants.

For instance, in October this year, SBI Card launched the KrisFlyer SBI Card in partnership with Singapore Airlines. Users of this card can earn KrisFlyer miles (Sinapore Airlines’ frequent flyer programme). ICICI Bank partnered with online travel portal MakeMyTrip to launch a travel-focused co-branded credit card where users get rewards in the form of myCash, MakeMyTrip’s reward currency. Yes Bank partnered with fintech platform Paisabazaar for a co-branded credit card earlier this year.

Despite the growth, India remains an underpenetrated market for credit cards, according to Abhijit Chakravorty, MD and CEO, SBI Card. This, he says, creates opportunities to tap into the market across various segments, including lifestyle, retail, travel, fuel and more.

“Co-branded credit cards offer a range of advantages that appeal to consumers, credit card issuers and partners. These cards feature customised reward programmes that align closely with spending patterns, offering perks enhancing consumer experience,” he said.

For consumers, co-branded credit cards simplify spending by offering higher rewards on everyday purchases in sectors like retail, fuel, travel, dining, e-commerce and groceries, among others, and unlike generic rewards, these cards provide specialised offers.

According to a report by Redseer Strategy Consultants and Hyperface, a platform for credit cards as a service, co-branded credit cards accounted for 12-15 per cent of total credit cards in the financial year 2023-24, and their share could exceed 25 per cent by 2027-28.

E-commerce dominates the co-branded credit card landscape, commanding 75-80 per cent of all issued cards, with the Amazon Pay ICICI Bank and Flipkart Axis Bank credit cards leading the charge, and collectively accounting for about 9 million cards, said the report. Travel sector holds 8-10 per cent market share of co-branded cards, while the dining and entertainment sectors represent 3-5 per cent.

Co-branded credit cards are an excellent way to create value for both customers and the partnering organisations, said Chitrabhanu K.G., senior vice president and country head for retail assets and cards, Federal Bank. It is a win-win for the issuer, too. “They are an efficient way to acquire and engage customers. These partnerships allow us to tap into the partner’s existing loyal customer base, which makes targeted customer acquisition easier. Moreover, the exclusive benefits and rewards keep customers engaged and deepen loyalty―both to the bank and to the partner brand,” said Chitrabhanu.

From a lender perspective, co-branded credit cards also offer cross-selling opportunities, where customers could be introduced to other banking products.

To maximise the benefits of co-branded credit cards, users should strategically align their purchases with the card’s offerings and actively utilise its features.

“Familiarising yourself with the card’s reward structure is a great starting point. The cardholder can make purchases that earn maximum rewards, such as shopping at partner outlets or using affiliated services where accelerated points, cashback, or category-specific discounts are offered,” said Chakravorty. Reward points yield better returns when redeemed for products, services or vouchers from the partner brand. By actively using the card for relevant purchases, the value of rewards and perks should ideally outweigh the cost of the fee, he said.

While co-branded credit cards present a great opportunity from an engagement and growth perspective, these partnerships need to be carefully calibrated, cautioned Chitrabhanu. “These partnerships can be heavy on costs, with revenue-sharing agreements, marketing expenses, and rewards structures that are often customised to the partner’s ecosystem,” he said.

the-rapid-growth-of-quick-commerce-is-reshaping-indias-retail-shopping-scene

Sun Dec 08 14:59:41 IST 2024

It was when he was stuck at home during the Covid pandemic that Mumbai boy Aadit Palicha noticed the struggles of his elderly neighbours in getting their daily groceries. It led to a billion-dollar idea, which today has some of the biggest companies in the world, from Amazon to Reliance, playing catch-up to.

What Aadit and Kaivalya Vohra, both 18 then, kickstarted by delivering medicines and groceries to the needy neighbours on bicycle has blossomed into Zepto, a startup worth a mind-boggling Rs30,000 crore valuation, in just around three years. In the process, they have become India’s youngest billionaires, according to the Hurun Rich List released a month ago. “Quick commerce is no longer just about stocking up on necessities. It caters to diverse needs, allowing users to skip the planning phase and instantly access a wide assortment of items in one place,” said Aadit, who celebrated his 22nd birthday along with the billionaire status.

Quick commerce, as the name suggests, is an online market service which assures delivery at lightning speed. While a regular order, say on Flipkart or Amazon, may take a few days depending on the item, quick commerce promises delivery in minutes.

A lot of data crunching and predictive algorithms make it work, whereby players like Zepto and BlinkIt set up dark stores in high catchment areas and stock up on items that are likely to be ordered. “The market is shifting towards the quick commerce version,” said Srinivasa Reddy, assistant professor, marketing management, T.A. Pai Management Institute, Manipal. “And, we are also seeing a maturity because customers are willing to trust this even for an ice cream!”

Figures suggest that one in 10 ice cream orders are now through the quick commerce route. “If I could ever think of a product where it would be tough to trust being delivered fast through delivery, ice cream would be one. But when we see 10 per cent actually choosing to buy from this model, we understand that quick commerce has changed the dimension and its ability to build up,” said Reddy.

While quick commerce became a thing in the post-Covid months, it had its origin in the success of Zomato and Swiggy in the food aggregator space. “We can learn pretty much the quick commerce formula from what happened for Zomato—they were working with restaurants and sending the food out,” said Reddy. “Technologically, it is an extension of that.”

Interestingly, as its delivery chain became seamless, Zomato toyed with the idea of 10-minute food deliveries, but quickly realised there was a more feasible and bigger market in applying this supply chain technology to delivering provisions. The result? Zomato’s quick commerce gross order value in the last quarter of the last year grew 130 per cent while its core food delivery business grew just 30 per cent. Zomato’s CEO Deepinder Goyal now expects BlinkIt’s (Zomato acquired the platform in 2022) quick commerce revenues to surpass that of its food delivery business by next year.

The always-in-a-rush Indian has lapped up the concept. While Meituan in China, Getir in Turkey or even DoorDash in the US do get talked about, India apparently seems to have become the market with the biggest scale of adoption of quick commerce of late. Redseer Strategy Consultants says q-com grew about 75 per cent in India last year, five times the growth of e-commerce, despite 2023 being a year of low demand and low consumption. It estimates that 50 lakh new users will start using q-com over the next year.

More importantly, the biggies of India’s online shopping space have been forced to take note. While earlier the quick commerce bandwagon’s serious players included BlinkIt (previously known as Grofers) and Swiggy’s InstaMart, Zepto’s popularity has made the likes of BigBasket, Flipkart and Amazon respond.

Walmart-owned Flipkart threw its hat into the ring during the monsoon by launching ‘Minutes’, on an experimental basis in certain high-density localities of Bengaluru. It expanded the service to parts of Gurugram a few weeks ago.

Nobody wants to be left behind in this quick commerce rush. Amazon has reportedly pulled in Nishant Sardana, who was heading its computers, camera and large appliances businesses, to set up its q-com strategy by early next year, while Tata-owned BigBasket is completely switching over to the quick commerce model. It expects to generate two-thirds of its $1.5 billion sales through the quick delivery model. Reliance’s JioMart, which experimented with hyperlocal deliveries in Navi Mumbai and some Mumbai suburbs earlier, is also expected to scale up the quick delivery model to more areas.

It is not just the biggies, startups are also jumping on the q-com bandwagon. Bengaluru firm Origin, which started operating last month, delivers fresh produce. “The online commerce ecosystem will eventually transition to this delivery model. Initially perceived as a trend, it is now a consumer habit,” said Prashanth Vasan, CEO of Origin. Its research showed that Indian consumers are not willing to wait more than 30 minutes for fresh produce and essential supplies. “As the sector matures, it is increasingly becoming an integral part of the retail landscape, owing to its ability to address the growing demand for swift, convenient, and dependable delivery services,” he said.

The incredible run that q-com has had in the past few years has also brought it in the crosshairs of the powerful traders and small businessmen. The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) has been calling for a suspension of the operations of Amazon and Flipkart in India. The All-India Consumer Products Distribution Association (AICDF) recently approached the commerce ministry complaining that unchecked expansion of q-com was leading to severe disruptions in the conventional retail model.

A report by Elara Capital says that India’s three crore neighbourhood grocery stores have seen a 30 per cent fall in sales since the Covid pandemic and one in every four of these stores may be forced to shut down if q-com continues to expand in non-metro markets.

The veritable gold rush also has sceptics rushing in to question the model—can profits match the sky-high valuations?

“What is the money these people can make? I am lost!” said Reddy. “Outside of a valuation or IPO, I do not really see how they are actually going to have a money-making model.”

The issue is the cost per delivery. With some q-com players offering to even deliver small-value orders like a pencil box, a milk packet or even a single cigarette, it begs the question; how much of a margin will they have to charge to break even? “An e-commerce delivery agent starts in the morning, fills up his truck and goes delivering on a route that is already planned. But in q-com’s case, you have 1:1 delivery. There is no incremental cost of delivery; everything is a new cost,” said Reddy.

The eventual plan, perhaps, will be to expand and build up on volumes. It also explains the rush among these players to expand to tier 2 cities and beyond. That, of course, brings with it the feasibility of the model—not all cities and towns will be catchments with high-spending, affluent neighbourhoods like Gurugram or Bandra. But Aadit refuted this theory with the numbers from Zepto’s recent roll-out in Nashik, Maharashtra. “Within six weeks, our orders hit 1,000 per day, faster than metro cities, where it took 3-4 months to reach this milestone. This highlights a key insight: customers in tier 2 cities and beyond are underserved,” he said.

India’s pockets of affluence, which is not limited to big cities or even towns, could be the way out for q-com players as they go searching for newer pastures. Tying up with local stores in small towns could be another money-saver. “Other online platforms have failed to scale sustainably in this domain, but q-commerce platforms could just surprise us like last year,” said Kushal Bhatnagar, associate partner at Redseer.

Many believe this festive season has been defining moment for q-com. Already, FMCG biggies like ITC, Parle and Mondelez have tied up with q-com companies to offer gift packs across categories.

Amazon is also getting its act together. The strategy seems to be to have a superior experience in the whole shopping-to-delivery process, and it is interesting that it is presently testing out its rapid delivery capabilities with fresh fruits and vegetables. “Our strategic vision is not just about getting orders to customers’ doorsteps quickly,” said a spokesperson, “but providing an unmatched online shopping experience from product discovery to selection to delivery to customer service.”

zepto-ceo-and-co-founder-aadit-palicha-interview

Sun Dec 08 14:47:23 IST 2024

Q/ Quick commerce is gaining popularity and attention from entrenched e-commerce players. What explains this?

A/ Quick commerce is redefining the way users of all ages shop, going far beyond the pandemic-driven reliance on essentials. It is no longer just about stocking up on necessities; today, users across generations are using platforms like ours for a wide range of needs. Millennials and Gen Z might turn to quick commerce for personal electronics, trendy gadgets or curated gift packs. Gen X might open the app for home essentials, kitchen appliances or festive items like gold coins and puja supplies. Boomers, who once relied on making lists and going to stores, now find convenience in ordering everything from plants to groceries, with items delivered in minutes.

The evolution of quick commerce caters to these diverse needs, allowing users to skip the planning phase and instantly access a wide assortment of items in one place. Whether it is last-minute gifting, finding festive décor or just spontaneous shopping, quick commerce platforms deliver convenience and variety with unparalleled speed.

The immense popularity of quick commerce stems from this shift in behaviour, where the app becomes not just a store, but a problem-solving tool. The pandemic may have sparked the habit, but the continuous growth and expansion of what is available—from edibles to apparel—keep users coming back, making quick commerce a serious contender in the retail ecosystem.

Q/ What were the beliefs and plans with which you launched Zepto? Which areas have you had to rework strategies?

A/ In the summer of 2020, Kaivalya Vohra and I, both 18, took a drop year from Stanford and returned to Mumbai. Observing the struggle of our elderly neighbours to access essentials during the pandemic, we began delivering groceries and medicines by bicycle. As demand surged, we transitioned to an app and scaled rapidly. By July 2021, we opened our first warehouse and expanded across major cities. In 2022-2023, we focused on efficiency during the startup funding winter, ultimately becoming a unicorn of 2023.

Throughout this journey, the core belief of addressing critical consumer pain points has held strong. However, we have had to adapt by refining operations and improving efficiency, especially in response to external challenges.

Q/ Rapid delivery is no longer a unique selling point. How do you then stand out?

A/ The true differentiator in this market is execution. Quick commerce is an operationally intense business, and success hinges on who can execute consistently and at scale. If multiple players execute well, they can thrive side by side. But if only one does, that is where the real success will be. It is not just about having a great model—it is about who delivers on it flawlessly, day after day.

Q/ The 10-minute/20-minute delivery model works in high-density pin codes. Will they work in smaller towns?

A/ We recently launched in Nashik, and within six weeks, our stores hit 1,000 orders per day—faster than in metro cities like Mumbai, Bangalore, and Delhi-NCR, where it took 3-4 months to reach this milestone. This highlights a key insight: customers in tier 2 cities and beyond are underserved. Our model works well because we provide price, selection, quality, and convenience on one platform. The demand is there, and by tailoring our approach to meet local needs, the model is scalable even in smaller towns.

investing-in-actively-managed-low-volatility-portfolios-keeps-ri

Sat Nov 30 11:45:21 IST 2024

AFTER A ROARING bull market over the past year, equity markets in the recent months have gone into a correction mode as FIIs go on a selling spree. Volatility has risen and investment returns are hurt.

A low-variance portfolio―where the returns over a long period of time do not move too much away from the expected mean―is critical for goals such as retirement where we project long-term corpus requirements.

Averages often do not convey the full picture on several aspects, more so in the case of investments. Thus, the journey in delivering an average return of, say, 12 per cent over 10 years, has several periods when returns significantly deviate from the expected mean, both on the upside and downside. This variance indicates portfolio volatility.

Heightened risk-taking brings variance to the fore

Investor exuberance: Pre-Covid, investors typically had allocations to equity, debt, hybrid and gold funds so as to ensure a balanced portfolio. In the past few years, investor portfolios have gone heavily (almost entirely) in favour of equities with huge weightages to mid and small caps. This has skewed the risk-reward equation.

US-China trade wars and geopolitical tensions persist

The India growth story seems to be intact due to strong government finances (record direct and indirect tax collections, low fiscal deficit of 5.6 per cent in FY24) and robust corporate balance sheet. Premiumisation of household has also helped growth.

These factors point to a possibility of unrealistic investor return expectations, which necessitate greater focus on volatility (variance).

Large cap driven low-variance portfolio

In general, large-cap companies tend to experience much less volatility in their prices―thanks to stable earnings prospects, liquidity, etc―compared to mid and small caps. On the valuation front, the Nifty 100 TRI with a P/E multiple of 23.1 and P/B ratio of 3.66 as of October 31, 2024, is cheaper than the Nifty Midcap 150 TRI (P/E: 43; P/B: 5.44) and Nifty Small Cap 250 TRI (P/E: 32.4; P/B:4.25), according to data from NSE.

Adding an element of active management to a plainly passive rule-based low volatility portfolio can help realise better outcomes. Macro parameters, investment indicators, business sentiments and global factors can be used in addition to low variance filters for better judgement. Interest rates, US dollar dynamics and oil prices are some factors used to better gauge the best beneficiaries within a low-variance universe rather than just a passive rule-based method.

A low variance approach ensures that a portfolio falls less than the broader indices, while attempting to capture a reasonable portion of rallies.

Investors may consider the new fund offer (NFO) from ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, the ICICI Prudential Equity Minimum Variance Fund, which is open from November 18 to December 2, 2024. This scheme is ideal for those seeking long-term capital appreciation and equity exposure with reduced market volatility. It focuses on large-cap companies with strong corporate governance and robust cash flows. The strategy emphasises large-cap stocks with low volatility, assigning them higher weightage. Through in-depth analysis, weight management, and view-based allocation, the fund aims to build a diversified portfolio that minimises volatility while fostering stable, long-term growth.

The writer is director, Intelli360 Asset Pvt Ltd.

managing-volatility-smarter-equity-choices-in-uncertain-markets

Sat Nov 30 11:40:51 IST 2024

THE INDIAN STOCK MARKET has delivered a strong 11 per cent CAGR over the past decade, with positive returns for eight straight years. This consistency has led many investors to view equity returns as predictable―when, in reality, they are anything but. Today’s investment environment is increasingly complex. Forces like geopolitical tensions, slowing earnings growth, FPI (foreign portfolio investor) outflows, and high valuations, are adding uncertainty. As a result, many portfolios have shifted toward high-return pursuits, drifting away from balanced risk management.

Why predictability matters

Periods of strong performance can sometimes create a false sense of security, leading investors to overlook risks in pursuit of high returns. A few years ago, investors balanced their portfolios across equity, debt, and hybrid investments. Today, however, portfolios are skewed toward equities, particularly in mid- and small-cap stocks, driven by the sharp rallies. The Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 indices, for instance, recorded robust CAGRs of 22 per cent and 28-29 per cent, respectively, over the last three to five years.

This focus on high-growth segments carries hidden risks. During market downturns, mid- and small-cap stocks tend to see sharper declines than large-caps, amplifying potential losses. In 2020, for example, while the Nifty 50 fell by 34 per cent, the Nifty Smallcap 250 dropped by 40 per cent. Such downturns illustrate the impact of volatility.

The risk in averages

Imagine a river with an average depth of five feet. For a six-foot-tall person, it might seem safe to cross. However, some parts of the river may be just two feet deep, while others plunge to nine feet. This average masks the riskier areas. Investing can be much the same. Average returns can look attractive but may hide periods of extreme volatility. High returns, while appealing, often come with high risks. Without a full understanding of potential fluctuations, investors may find themselves in “deeper waters” than expected.

Variance, or volatility, in investments can create a disconnect between projected and actual returns, often derailing long-term goals. For example, consider an investor aiming for a 12 per cent average annual return over 25 years to grow their retirement fund. While this target seems achievable based on historical averages, the reality is less predictable. Fluctuations can lead to different outcomes: if returns vary widely―say, with highs of 30 per cent in some years and losses of 20 per cent in others―the average masks the impact of these ups and downs.

A better path

In unpredictable markets, investors’ priorities are shifting. As economic and geopolitical challenges continue, more investors are seeking stability over high-risk, high-return options. Gone are the days when aggressive highs and lows were broadly appealing. Now, a smoother journey―one that emphasises resilience and steady growth―has gained favour.

Looking at historical data, stability-focussed portfolios have performed consistently, even in tough times. For instance, the Nifty 100 Low Volatility 30 index has posted a solid CAGR of 18.4 per cent in the last two decades, outpacing even the Midcap (18.1 per cent) and Smallcap (16.9 per cent) indices. This stability-focussed approach has effectively managed both upsides and downsides, capturing a large part of the bull market gains while significantly limiting losses during crises like Eurozone crisis, Fed Taper Tantrum, and Covid-19 shock. By limiting volatility and drawdowns, such strategies allow investors to maintain confidence and stay on track.

Who benefits most from stability

Approaches that focus on minimising volatility and managing variance provide a solid foundation for growth, helping investors stay aligned with their financial goals even as markets fluctuate. By choosing equity strategies such as minimum variance, investors can achieve consistent growth without the stress of extreme ups and downs.

Investors may want to invest in the new fund offer (NFO) by ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund, the ICICI Prudential Equity Minimum Variance Fund, open from November 18 to December 2, 2024. This scheme is well-suited for those seeking long-term capital appreciation and equity exposure while minimising the impact of market volatility.

The writer is CEO, Finozone Financial Services IMF Pvt Ltd.

how-do-we-build-wealth-with-low-variance

Sat Nov 23 10:44:47 IST 2024

MINIMUM VARIANCE IS an investment approach that focuses on reducing fluctuations within a portfolio. To explain its relevance, let us imagine that a person is attempting to cross a river with an average depth of five feet. If certain areas of the river are deeper, relying on the average depth can be misleading and even dangerous. Similarly, in investments, an average return may mask the underlying fluctuations that can impact the overall experience and outcome for investors.

Variance is a measure that captures how much individual data points deviate from the average. In a dataset, a higher variance suggests that numbers are spread over a larger range, indicating more volatility. To illustrate, consider a person travelling to the airport with an estimated travel time of one hour. During peak traffic, the time might increase to 1.5 hours, while during off-times, it may decrease to 45 minutes.

These fluctuations form the average indicate variance. In investing, a portfolio with high variance will experience more dramatic swings in returns, while a portfolio with low variance, but similar average return, will tend to give a relatively smoother experience.

In recent years, variance has become particularly relevant due to shifts in market behaviour. Portfolio allocations have gradually changed, moving away from balanced mixes of equity, debt and hybrid investments. With increasing returns and a higher risk appetite among investors, more portfolios now lean toward equities, especially in the midcap and small-cap segments, which tend to be more volatile. Past performance of these segments has further attracted investors. This shift underscores the importance of managing variance within portfolios.

Also, the valuation of the stock market has climbed well above its historical average, creating conditions where volatility is likely to remain high. Meanwhile, corporate earnings growth has moderated. This has added unpredictability to stock performance.

Geopolitical tensions also contribute to market fluctuations. However, India’s growth story remains a source of optimism. A strong government balance sheet, stable banks, healthy corporate balance sheets, and robust household finances contribute to India’s resilience in the face of challenges. Yet, while this long-term potential is promising, short-term fluctuations are unavoidable, which makes controlling variance even more appealing.

Another significant factor influencing the market is the pattern of foreign investments. Recently, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have reduced their exposure to Indian equities, particularly in large-cap stocks. A reversal of this trend in the future could potentially lead to improved performance in large-cap stocks, adding to the case for managing variance to navigate through such periods effectively.

A minimum variance approach to investing focuses on creating a stable return experience by prioritising risk-adjusted returns rather than seeking the highest returns. This approach may not always deliver the maximum gains, but it aims to control the swings in value, which can provide peace of mind to those cautious about market volatility.

Active portfolio management can further help by factoring in broader economic elements, such as interest rates, commodity prices, and global growth trends, which contribute to a portfolio’s overall stability. A focus on low variance helps in reducing potential losses during volatile periods, and careful stock selection adds a layer of risk management, making this approach suitable for long-term investors who prioritise stability.

As markets remain volatile due to various factors, such as increased risk appetite, high valuations, and global uncertainties, low variance strategies can offer protection from sharp market swings. For investors who seek exposure to equity but prefer a more stable experience, this approach provides a reliable means to pursue growth while managing risk. Embracing this approach reflects the belief that, while market fluctuations are inevitable, a steadier investment journey can deliver both peace of mind and consistent returns over time.

In line with this, investors may consider ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund’s new offering―ICICI Prudential Equity Minimum Variance Fund―open from November 18 to December 2, 2024. This scheme suits investors seeking long-term capital growth and equity exposure with reduced market volatility, focusing on large-cap companies with good corporate governance and high cash-flows.

The author is founder, Perpetual Investments.

factor-funds-can-complement-market-cap-weighted-investments-by-targeting-specific-characteristics

Sat Nov 16 16:29:26 IST 2024

Typically investors look at mutual funds from their size (large-cap or mid-cap or small-cap), sector and theme. Of late, however, a new kind of investing style is gaining traction. Factor-based investing has been growing in developed markets. But, it is now seeing a flurry of activity in India. Many asset management companies have launched factor-based schemes over the past year or so.

Factor-based funds are a type of active funds, but they tilt the portfolios towards certain stock characteristics to achieve specific risk and return objectives. For instance, one scheme may be more focused on quality of the stocks, while another may buy stocks based on their recent momentum. Yet another scheme could be investing in stocks focused on value. There are also schemes that are focused on stocks that have low volatility over a period.

There are several factors or investment styles like value (price-to-earnings ratio or price-to-book ratio), quality (strong fundamentals like profitability, management, earnings growth), low volatility, momentum (strong price movement in recent times), size, and dividend yield (good track record of dividends).

You could also have schemes that are based on multiple factors. This is called multi-factor investing, where a fund manager may use a combination of strategies or factors to generate higher risk-adjusted returns.

“From 2013 onwards, the AUM (assets under management) of factor-based funds and ETFs (exchange traded funds) have increased from $150 billion to over $600 billion in the US market. They now account for 21 per cent of the total US ETF market assets, up from just 3 per cent a decade ago. I am expecting a similar growth story to play out for factor-based strategies in the Indian market in the coming decade,” said Mayank Misra, VP (product management) at fintech platform INDmoney.

What should be noted is that not all factors will perform at the same time. “Growth and momentum factors outperform during bull markets. Value performs best during early recovery following a down market. Quality stocks characterised by strong balance sheets and stable earnings perform well during bear markets as they offer downside protection and do not fall much,” said Misra.

As equity markets scaled new highs last year, many of these momentum funds delivered 40-45 per cent returns. Value funds, on the other hand, on an average returned 35-40 per cent. In the same period, pure Nifty 50 index funds delivered around 24 per cent returns.

Factor funds, however, are not everyone’s cup of tea. “These factors have proven to work across long time periods (over 10 years) but they do not perform equally well across all short-term periods,” said Jiral Mehta, senior research analyst at FundsIndia. “All investment styles go through their cycles and have phases of underperformance followed by significant outperformance and the cycle repeats. In the longer run, the phases of outperformance compensate more than enough for the phases of underperformance.”

Notably, when these factors go out of favour, if you have invested only in one factor, then your entire portfolio might go through prolonged underperformance. “We prefer diversifying based on investment factors, mainly quality, value, blend, mid/small cap and momentum,” said Mehta.

Who should then invest in factor funds?

“If you understand what factor you are investing in and in which market it will outperform and where it will underperform, instead of having vanilla index fund, you can have some factor funds exposure. But, if you are a normal investor and you have a small portfolio, there is already a lot of confusion. So, no need to confuse it further,” said Anant Ladha, founder of Invest Aaj for Kal.

Factor funds can complement traditional market-cap-weighted investments by targeting specific characteristics that may perform better under certain market conditions. “Increasing exposure to growth and momentum factors during bull markets while favouring quality and value factors during bear market phases should lead to overall portfolio outperformance,” said Misra.

the-biggest-advantage-of-nps-vatsalya-is-that-the-child-starts-saving-early-and-a-huge-corpus-can-be-generated-over-time

Sat Nov 16 16:23:32 IST 2024

The government launched the National Pension System in 2004, and in 2009 it was rolled out to all Indians. With NPS, you can save money for the long term through regulated market-linked instruments and build a corpus for your retirement. Recently, the government launched NPS Vatsalya, a contributory pension scheme designed specifically for minors. It is regulated and administered by the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA).

You can open an NPS account for your child and start saving for her pension at a very early age. With a minimum investment of Rs1,000 a year, you can introduce children to the concept of saving and investing and educate them on money management from an early age. “By encouraging early investment and providing a structured savings plan, NPS Vatsalya aims to build a robust financial foundation for young individuals,” says Kurian Jose, CEO, Tata Pension Management.

The NPS Vatsalya account can be opened online or physically at a point of presence registered with PFRDA. The parent can choose a pension fund registered with the PFRDA.

The account is opened in the name of the minor and operated by the parent or guardian. The minor is the sole beneficiary. Once the minor turns 18, it is shifted seamlessly to NPS Tier-1 (all citizen) account.

The money will be invested by pension funds in a basket of equity, debt and alternative assets. If you choose the default choice, then the money gets invested in a moderate life cycle fund, where equity investment is capped at 50 per cent. In the case of active choice, the guardian can decide the allocation of funds, between equity (capped at 75 per cent), government securities or corporate debt (up to 100 per cent allocation in both) or alternate asset (capped at 5 per cent). You can choose between aggressive, moderate or conservative life cycle funds based on your risk appetite.

An advantage of NPS Vatsalya is that the child starts saving early, and so a huge corpus can be generated over time. For example, if you start investing at 10 for retirement at 60, an investment of Rs10,000 per month will leave with you a corpus of more than Rs17 crore, assuming 10 per cent compounded annual return. But, if you start the same investment at the age of 25, you would accumulate only around Rs4 crore.

There are, however, liquidity issues with NPS Vatsalya. You can withdraw only up to 25 per cent of the contribution for the child’s education or an emergency like some illness. Also, should the child decide to exit the scheme on turning 18, only 20 per cent will be paid as lump sum, and the rest goes towards buying an annuity plan.

This is a major drawback, says Vidya Bala, co-founder of Primeinvestor.in, a research solutions platform for retail investors. “If a parent is investing for a child, it is typically for a medium-term goal like education and wedding. Here the problem is locking the money into annuity or converting it into NPS Tier-1 account once the child turns 18. So, the parent will have to invest separately for the child’s education simply because you can withdraw only 20 per cent in NPS Vatsalya at 18. There is a lot of restriction on the usage of money here,” she says.

NPS also does not allow investing fully in equity in the early years. Bala said a parent could rather invest in equity mutual funds considering the investment is for the medium-to-long term and they have the flexibility to withdraw the money as and when required.

j-m-baxi-magaing-director-dhruv-kotak-interview

Mon Nov 18 21:25:10 IST 2024

Interview/ Dhruv Kotak, managing director, JM Baxi

PORTS AND ALLIED infrastructure development are at the heart of India's ambitions to become a maritime heavyweight. JM Baxi, one of the leading providers of marine services and ports and logistics, is a driving force behind this change. In an exclusive interview, Dhruv Kotak, managing director of JM Baxi, talks about the future of shipping, the Chinese challenge and how technology is becoming a change agent. Excerpts:

Q/ Shipping is already one of the greenest ways to transport goods. When we talk about making it greener, what are the kind of changes we are looking at?

A/ Shipping is one of the most environmentally efficient modes of transportation because of its low carbon emission per unit of cargo. But it still contributes about 3 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. In the last decade, there has been an increase of 20 per cent [in emissions] and projections show that it could increase by up to 130 per cent from the 2008 levels by 2050. So, while it may be the most efficient option for moving goods, calling it “green” doesn’t fully capture the scale of its environmental impact.

From a regulatory perspective, shipping is already undergoing major changes. There is a strong drive towards adopting green fuels, including hydrogen-based fuels like ammonia, direct hydrogen, and even lower-carbon fuels like LNG. Shipping is doing its part with strict IMO regulations, stringent emission norms, eco-focused engine designs and advances in fuel standards, all contributing to a greener industry.

India, for instance, is stepping up by building green hydrogen hubs at various ports. These hubs will play a key role in supporting the global green bunker fuel programme, preparing India to be a major contributor when this shift accelerates globally.

But greening the industry isn’t just about what happens on the ocean―it’s about the entire supply chain, including the first mile and the last mile, which rely heavily on road and rail. By shifting more of these legs to greener energy, like electric rail or low-emission road transport, and focusing on green corridors, we can create significant savings across the whole chain. Warehousing powered by renewable energy, ports using green power sources, and electric road and rail options all contribute to this goal.

Q/ China has become a dominant force in the shipping sector. You have been making a strong case for India becoming an alternative. What are the specific measures we should take to achieve that potential?

A/ To understand China’s dominance in shipping, it is crucial to recognise why it holds that position. China, the world’s factory, is producing and exporting a massive share of global goods. It is also one of the largest consumers of raw materials, whether in the dry bulk, tanker or container trades. It is at the heart of these sectors, largely due to the sheer volume of cargo flows originating there.

China has also invested strategically in highly efficient, forward-looking ports with seamless connectivity―by sea and land―backed by extensive infrastructure. Beyond ports, it has developed a strong ecosystem around shipbuilding, ship repair and container manufacturing, creating an efficient supply chain and logistics network that supports its port operations.

For India to emerge as a competitive alternative, we need a holistic approach. The first step is to focus on developing port-led industrial hubs across various regions. By clustering manufacturing capabilities around ports, India can attract industries that are shifting their supply chains from China. With a well-planned approach, we have an opportunity to establish these hubs with green infrastructure that meets the carbon regulations increasingly required by markets like the US and Europe.

The second key measure is building a strong maritime ecosystem. India should develop capabilities in marine services, shipbuilding, container manufacturing, and ship repair. While we have made strides in port development, scaling this ecosystem is essential to form true maritime clusters. These clusters would allow India to operate at scale and become a robust alternative to China, not only in terms of supply but also in long-term competitiveness and sustainability.

Q/ India is one of the biggest providers in manpower to the shipping industry. It is still an untapped employment opportunity for a country trying to get out of the low-income bracket. What more can we do to make use of this opportunity?

A/ To fully tap into India’s potential in maritime employment, the first step is building strong awareness among young people about the wide range of opportunities in the maritime logistics and supply chain sectors. Many of these careers offer national and international prospects, significant growth potential, and diverse pathways, so creating early exposure to this industry can inspire interest and ambition.

The next step is to develop specialised training programmes beyond those currently available for mariners. We should establish apprenticeship programmes across various disciplines―such as port management, warehouse management and even skilled positions like vehicle operation. Many countries, especially developed ones, face driver shortages. So training Indian drivers for international work could be a valuable solution. Similarly, roles in engineering, mechanical repair and maintenance offer viable entry points and require tailored programmes.

For this, we need robust vocational training initiatives. Entry-level, engineering-focused courses at Industrial Training Institutes could focus on areas like operating, repair and maintenance, while advanced programmes could include specialised marine engineering courses, management training through institutions like the IIMs, and graduate-level programmes in supply chain and trade management. The goal is to create a broad-based system that includes pathways for every skill level.

To succeed, this effort requires close collaboration across various government bodies, including the ministries of labour and employment, education, skill development and entrepreneurship, as well as institutions like Indian Maritime University and DG Shipping. Bringing stakeholders from the private sector to participate in these initiatives―perhaps through advisory roles at educational institutions―will also help align training with industry needs and improve programme relevance. In addition, we need to promote interoperability between disciplines to encourage career flexibility.

Q/ Geopolitical issues apart, what are the big challenges before shipping?

A/ The shipping industry, like many others, faces two significant challenges: the energy transition and the rise of AI.

The ongoing shift to greener fuels and sustainable supply chains is crucial. Shipping is under intense scrutiny to reduce its environmental impact, which makes this transition both a challenge and an opportunity. Companies that adapt swiftly to new, cleaner technologies will gain a long-term competitive edge.

Secondly, AI is poised to transform maritime logistics, which is traditionally documentation- and process-heavy. By streamlining and automating numerous operations, AI offers the potential for major efficiency gains. However, this shift could also lead to significant workforce disruptions. Organisations and individuals that engage with AI early on can avoid redundancy risks and even create new opportunities within the industry. Thus, while AI presents challenges, it also opens doors for those ready to innovate.

Together, the energy transition and AI are reshaping the shipping landscape, urging the industry to adopt forward-looking strategies to stay resilient.

bafs-the-smart-way-to-let-the-markets-ups-and-downs-work-for-you

Sat Oct 26 11:40:25 IST 2024

WHEN THE MARKETS soar to new heights, the fear of an imminent crash keeps many investors on edge. What if you could invest confidently without constantly worrying about when to enter or exit the market? Balanced Advantage Funds (BAFs) offer that peace of mind. This category of funds with over 12.8 lakh crore of assets spread over 48 lakh folios (as of August 2024) has been the go-to solution that thrives in both uncertain times, bullish times and flat markets ie full market cycles.

BAFs are hybrid mutual funds designed to adapt to changing market conditions by dynamically adjusting the allocation between equity and debt. These funds have gained significant popularity in India due to their flexibility and potential for consistent returns across market cycles. For years, BAFs have helped investors stay put in moments of uncertainty and convert them into opportunities to secure consistent returns.

Understanding BAFs

BAFs, also known as Dynamic Asset Allocation Funds, adjust their equity and debt exposure based on market conditions. Unlike traditional hybrid funds that maintain a static ratio between equity and debt, BAFs use a flexible asset allocation strategy. This allows the fund to increase equity exposure during market dips and reduce it during market highs, thus aiming to “buy low and sell high.” The key feature of BAFs is their use of quantitative models to guide these allocation shifts. This approach helps investors navigate market volatility without needing to time the market themselves. This makes BAFs an attractive option for both seasoned and novice investors.

BAFs work by following a dynamic investment process that is largely driven by quantitative models. Fund managers assess market conditions using metrics like the P/BV ratio etc, to determine the fund’s equity and debt allocation. For instance, if the equity market is overvalued, equity exposure is cut and debt allocation is hiked to mitigate risk. Conversely, when the market is undervalued, the equity exposure is increased to capitalise on potential gains.

BAFs mostly endeavour to adopt a flexi-cap approach for equity allocation. In case of debt allocation, they aim to invest in high quality instruments with over 80% of the portfolio in AAA-rated papers.

The BAF strategy helps to balance risk and reward by avoiding extreme exposure to any single asset class, allowing for a smooth investment experience.

Risk-return profile

Balanced Advantage Funds offer a balanced risk-return profile, sitting between pure equity funds and debt funds. Since BAFs adjust their asset allocation according to market conditions, they tend to carry lower risk than equity funds, especially in volatile markets. However, their return potential is higher than that of traditional debt funds due to their equity exposure.

The ability of BAFs to participate in market rallies while protecting downside during bear phases makes them appealing for investors seeking moderate capital appreciation and income generation.

In the last one year period ended September 30, BAFs as a category have delivered 25.7% return. In the last three- and five-year period, category returns are 14.8% CAGR and 13.9% CAGR respectively.

The tax treatment of Balanced Advantage Funds is similar to equity mutual funds. If the equity exposure is maintained above 65%, BAFs are classified as equity funds for tax purposes. Gross equity exposure in funds is usually maintained between 65% and 100%. If the equity allocation falls below 65%, the gross equity exposure is maintained at 65% using equity derivatives.

BAFs are suitable for a wide range of investors, especially those with moderate risk tolerance and a medium-to long-term investment horizon. Conservative investors can benefit from the downside protection provided by the dynamic asset allocation strategy, while aggressive investors can still enjoy equity-like returns during market upswings.

Investors looking for diversification without constantly monitoring the market may find BAFs ideal, as these funds take care of asset rebalancing, offering peace of mind amid market fluctuations. Additionally, the use of a quantitative model minimises emotional bias, allowing for more discipline.

One such BAF which investors may consider investing in is the ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund. With an AUM of over Rs60,000 crore, the fund is one of the largest and oldest in this category. As of September 30, 2024 the fund delivered a strong return of 23.59% on a one year basis and CAGR returns of 13.75% and 14.37% on three-year and five-year basis, respectively.

The writer is a mutual fund distributor

a-memorandum-signed-by-50-brics-countries-signals-the-need-for-fashion-to-move-away-from-western-perspectives

Sat Oct 19 15:43:16 IST 2024

By Namrata Zakaria /Moscow

A major movement in the global fashion industry has just taken place that will find little mention in the western media. The BRICS+ Fashion Summit wrapped up in Moscow last week, where industry leaders from more than 50 countries signed a memorandum to form a new association that will fuel the world’s emerging economies.

BRICS International Fashion Federation is possibly the biggest move to shift the fashion industry’s centre of gravity from Europe and the US to the faster developing newer markets. This would promote more international cooperation, include new economies, increase efficiency, create new opportunities, improve sustainability and allow for a more global perspective in the fashion and retail business. The memorandum on the creation of the BRICS International Fashion Federation was signed in Moscow by the heads of fashion weeks, CEOs of fashion and textile associations, heads of educational institutions from India, South Africa, Russia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Ghana, Tanzania, Jordan and several other countries. The BRICS is an intergovernmental organisation that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and, since 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The signing followed the BRICS+ Fashion Summit, which took place in Moscow from October 3 to 5, and was attended by over 100 countries.

Says Sunil Sethi, chairman of the Fashion Design Council of India: “The fashion industry is mainly led by a handful of global brands, so it is necessary that the emerging markets have a platform to raise their voice. The call for such an alliance is long overdue. Brands, designers and fashion markets face common challenges―from supply chain disruptions to environmental concerns―that can be addressed more effectively through joint action.”

BRICS+ markets, especially India and China, have long played key roles in the global textile and garment industry, but have historically been treated either as suppliers of labour or new areas of profit generation. Seldom have their talent or ideas been incorporated into Euro- or US-centric fashion and trade. The vast participation in BRICS+ this year signalled the need for the world to update and diversify itself.

A comparison by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2024 of the G7 and BRICS shows that GDP in the purchasing power of the two groups has already converged. For example, in 2007, the purchasing power of the G7 group was 37.4 per cent of the world’s GDP while that of BRICS was 23.4 per cent. In 2022, the G7 nations’ purchasing power stood at 30.3 per cent of the world’s GDP while that of the BRICS countries was already higher at 31.5 per cent.

This year’s IMF World Economic Outlook report (released in April), showcasing the Real GDP Growth Forecast of 2024 shows the G7 nations trailing, with the highest GDP among them belonging to the US at 2.7 per cent. In contrast, the GDP growth rate of several BRICS countries is higher than the US, including Egypt, Russia, Iran and the UAE. India’s is highest at 6.8 per cent and Ethiopia follows at 6.2 per cent.

The textile and fashion industry is a major branch of the global economy. Additionally, BRICS has taken a stronger grip on the energy markets since five new members joined the alliance. With Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the BRICS+ bloc accounts for nearly 40 per cent of global oil production and 30 per cent of this is natural gas. India and China are also major oil importers. This is important as it allows the BRICS+ nations to negotiate oil prices with the western countries better. Further, the trade turnover in the top five BRICS countries grew by 56 per cent between 2017 and 2022 to reach $422 billion. Western sanctions on Russia, for example, have redirected the country’s trade to India and China. When Russian President Vladimir Putin met Chinese President Xi Jinping in May, Putin remarked that almost 90 per cent of Russia’s trade with China is done in rubles and yuan, leading to de-dollarisation as a global trend.

The BRICS-IFF strengthens and expands the network of fashion organisations worldwide. It promotes local talent, advocates environmental and cultural concerns, and facilitates information and education. Participating countries can access new technologies, preserve cultural identities and support traditional crafts.

“We are committed to providing these visionaries with a global platform and local events to ensure that their creative work is celebrated globally,” reads the official communique of the BRICS+ Fashion Summit. “Our goal is to promote sustainable and eco-friendly practices, striving to implement transparent methodologies that will significantly reduce the fashion industry’s carbon footprint. Slow fashion, characterised by mindful consumption and production, will be at the heart of the BRICS-IFF agenda as we strive to reduce the environmental impact of fashion.”

The fashion summit led to the Moscow Fashion Week, which saw the participation of several designers from the BRICS+ countries like Nitin Bal Chauhan from India, Maison Revolta from Brazil, Kensun from China, Angelo Estera from the UAE, and Eve Valverde from Costa Rica.

“This gave me a chance to work with a great production team,” Chauhan tells us. “All the talent, from hair and makeup to choreographers, photographers, models and lighting engineers are world class. We also received more than 300 requests from fashion bloggers, models, stylists, enthusiasts and clients to attend the show. It is assuring to find customers who get our vibe. Like every fashion marker globally, it is essential to be consistent and show collections for a few seasons in order to create awareness among buyers and develop a fan base. We have met a few buyers and are looking forward to closing in on some stores in the coming season.”

Among the business discussions at the summit were topics of great relevance such as ‘Fashion as Cultural Diplomacy’, ‘Creative Capital: The Role of Creative Industries in Regional Economic Development’, ‘Retail Transformations: From Clothing Stores to Cultural Spaces’, and ‘Cloud Wardrobe’. During the session on ‘Fashion as Cultural Diplomacy’, Stephen Manzini, founder of Soweto Fashion Week, said: “It is crucial to establish a lasting presence in each other’s countries―this could take the form of a fashion exhibition or a multi-brand store. This would allow consumers to explore new brands, try on different styles, and engage with them directly. We want Russians to open stores in South Africa to promote their products in our market, while we will pursue similar opportunities in Russia.”

The ‘From Factory to Runway: Industry on Trend’ talk saw Akashdeep Singh, president of Indian Business Council in Russia, speak in fluent Russian of his two-country enterprise. As chairman and MD of Vulkan-A, he lives and works in both countries. “I want to restore faith in cooperation and mutual assistance for bilateral development. Russia and India have been historically friendly, it is time to pay attention to the huge potential of our cooperation,” he said. A big advocate of Indian textiles, he aims to teach Russia about India’s strengths. “Unfortunately, fast fashion has taken over Russian megacities, and the poorly developed light industry has made sewing clothes a pastime for the wealthy. In India, however, this has not lost its strength. For all important holidays, costumes are sewn individually, fabrics are given to each other as something necessary, which is commensurate with other household gifts that are familiar to us,” he said.

In the session on ‘Cloud Wardrobe’, French stylist and consultant Audrey Taillee remarked: “Trends are now so fluid and adapting. Fashion is not about trends anymore, it is about getting to know who you are selling to. In this manner, the trends of the west cannot apply to the entire world. Everyone is not wearing the same thing in different parts of the world. People now buy for the experience.” She also added that AI could never replace a creative soul. “AI can make your life faster, but it cannot replace a designer,” she said. “Fashion is about sensitivity, about the human soul. AI cannot give you a [Steve] McQueen. What it does that is of great importance is that it aids in e-commerce, and makes the world an open market. It gives opportunities to less visible designers. Technology makes the world a smaller place. But fashion is a human experience, it is pain and it is happiness.”

multi-asset-allocation-funds-may-be-a-good-choice-for-first-time-investors

Sat Oct 19 15:37:56 IST 2024

Do you have money to invest? Ask around and you will get varied suggestions. Some will say invest in equities, others will point out equities are risky and debt instruments are low-risk and, therefore, better. Indians have found gold attractive as an investment option that could come in handy on a rainy day.

Some smart guys at a mutual fund thought, why not package all these into one? As a result, most fund houses now have multi-asset allocation funds. These funds typically have to invest in at least three asset classes with a minimum allocation of 10 per cent in each.

These funds may invest in a number of traditional equity and fixed income strategies, index-tracking funds, financial derivatives as well as commodities like gold or silver. Some may invest in instruments like real estate investment trusts or infrastructure investment trusts. And, some may invest in foreign securities or funds that invest in global markets. In comparison, hybrid funds typically invest only in equity and debt.

“Multi-asset allocation funds aim to strike a balance of risk and returns through diversification across asset classes,” said Ashish Naik, fund manager at Axis Mutual Fund.

He pointed out that the three asset classes―equity, debt and gold/silver―are not highly co-related and hence provide a relatively better balance.

Over the last two-three years, equity has given strong returns. Three-year returns of large cap funds average between 15 per cent to 20 per cent. Three-year returns of small cap funds have ranged between 25 per cent and 30 per cent or more. This has made equity investments attractive.

But, equity investing also comes with high risk; they can fall sharply and provide low to negative returns for a long period. This is something many investors may not be able to digest.

In this backdrop, fund managers and investment advisers feel asset allocation becomes necessary and products like multi-asset funds help here.

“Many investors get swayed by the recent performance of asset classes to make their investment allocation decisions,” said Harshad Patwardhan, chief investment officer at Union Asset Management. “For instance, the superlative performance of equities in recent times has led to investors getting carried away while making their choices, often ignoring the words of caution from their own investment advisers.” The fund house had launched its multi-asset allocation fund in August.

Of late, we have seen a lot of volatility in the equity market. Market experts have been stressing on valuations being expensive in various corners of the market for some time now and point to a lot of uncertainties, be it from the geopolitical turmoil in West Asia or slowing demand in certain areas like automobiles.

Fund managers say multi-asset funds are well suited during such times of volatility.

“The three in one approach of this fund ensures relatively steady returns,” said Naik. “Investing in pure equity funds involves an element of risk while investing purely in debt is typically for investors who are risk averse. Multi-asset allocation funds blend all the three asset classes in one and provide a cushion to market volatility.”

Timing the market has always been a difficult proposition. Therefore, fund managers say products like multi-asset allocation funds may be a good choice for first-time investors or even for those who are looking at investments with low-risk and lower volatility.

“Multi-asset funds offer a one-stop solution for investors seeking a diversified portfolio without the need for constant monitoring or rebalancing of individual investments,” said Ihab Dalwai, fund manager, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company. “By holding a mix of assets, these funds aim to provide a better risk-adjusted return.”

What one must remember is that not all multi-asset allocations are the same. They may differ in terms of their allocation in each asset class and also in terms of their risk-return profile. One fund may have a higher exposure to equity, another may have more exposure to debt. Therefore, their returns may differ vastly. Data from Value Research shows that over the past one year some multi-asset funds have delivered 47-48 per cent returns, while others have only managed 15-20 per cent.

The idea behind pushing such multi-asset funds is that different asset classes perform differently during various market cycles. Dalwai said that since professional fund managers make allocation decisions, such funds reduce the burden on individual investors.

But, Vidya Bala, co-founder of Primeinvestor.in, a research solutions platform for retail investors, noted that multi-asset funds can give negative returns when equity markets fall and, therefore, for someone to think that such funds will reduce risk completely is not right.

How then should multi-asset funds be used?

“Multi-asset funds are useful for investors who are looking at a lower risk profile, equity-like fund, in addition to equity or debt that they may already have,” said Bala. “For instance, they have already built a portfolio consisting of large cap, mid cap and so on and now they still want to have sufficient exposure to an equity-like asset class but with a slightly lower risk, there multi-asset comes into play.”

She feels that in an ideal scenario, an investor should invest in asset classes like equity, debt and commodities separately as then the investor could have a choice of the best in each category.

“Supposing this (multi-asset) fund is 10 per cent of your portfolio and it holds 20 per cent in gold, you only get 10 per cent of 20 per cent, which is 2 per cent,” she said. “Whereas, if you would have taken gold yourselves, you would be holding 5 per cent or 10 per cent.”

At the end of the day, asset allocation depends on risk profile. For risk-takers and more savvy investors, a diversified approach may well work. While those who are risk averse maybe better served by a more conservative approach.

special-festive-season-fd-schemes-offered-by-banks

Sat Oct 19 12:06:25 IST 2024

Bank of Baroda has launched a new “Utsav Deposit” scheme with a term period of 400 days, which the public sector lender has launched specially for the festive season. Under this FD, general public will be offered an interest rate of 7.3 per cent, while senior citizens will get 7.8 per cent. Super senior citizens (people aged 80 and above) will get 7.9 per cent interest.

Bank of India, too, has recently launched a special 400-day retail term deposit scheme at interest rates ranging from 7.3 per cent (general public) to 7.95 per cent (super senior citizen). In case one opts for non-callable deposit, which means there is no premature withdrawal available, the interest rates offered are higher―between 7.45 per cent to 8.1 per cent.

The country’s largest lender, State Bank of India, too, has a similar 400-day term deposit scheme called Amrit Kalash, and a 444-day term deposit scheme called Amrit Vrishti, offering higher interest rates. Many other banks, including Union Bank, have launched special term deposit schemes.

This rush by lenders to offer special fixed deposit schemes at attractive interest rates comes against the backdrop of bank deposits growing at a slower pace than credit growth. Over the last few years, people have increasingly turned to stock markets and mutual funds. More than Rs24,000 crore is coming to mutual funds per month via SIPs (systematic investment plans) alone. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had in August nudged state-owned banks to undertake special drives to mobilise deposits.

Clearly, there was a need for banks to make term deposits slightly more attractive and that is why we see these special offers. But, the question is, should individuals park their money in long-term deposits now, or wait?

One major thing to consider here is interest rates. Over the last couple of years, as inflation surged, major central banks hiked interest rates. But, the cycle seems to be turning. In September, the US Federal Reserve slashed its interest rate by an outsized 50 basis points. It is expected to slash rates by a similar level by December 2024 and then some more in 2025. The Chinese central bank and the European Central Bank, too, have slashed interest rates this year.

Back home, the Reserve Bank of India, in its latest monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on October 9, left its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent. However, it changed its stance to “neutral” from “withdrawal of accommodation”, clearly signalling that it could act in the future, should conditions turn conducive. “The RBI’s recent shift to a neutral stance signals a move towards anticipated rate cuts and a lower interest rate cycle, both in India and globally,” said Raghvendra Nath, managing director, Ladderup Wealth Management.

A lot depends on where inflation is headed. The CPI (consumer price index) inflation in July and August came in below RBI’s targeted 4 per cent. But, it has jumped to 5.49 per cent in September, on the back of rise in food prices. After the Reserve Bank changed its stance to neutral, the wider expectation was that it will start cutting interest rates from December. But food prices continue to pose a major risk to inflation. The continued geopolitical tensions in West Asia, too, remain a risk. The central bank will also be watchful of how the GDP growth pans out and any slowdown there could raise the chance of a rate cut, too.

Some economists still see the central bank making rate cuts in December, but don’t expect too many cuts, unlike in other, especially developed, economies. “There are chances of a shallow rate cut of 25 bps in the December policy, followed by another 25 bps in the February policy, provided food inflation moderates,” said Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge Ratings.

UBS’s chief India economist Tanvee Gupta Jain expects the RBI to lower the repo rate by 75 basis points during the easing cycle. “The timing of the rate cut cycle is tricky and we believe the MPC would remain data dependent. For policy easing to begin from December, either inflation will need to soften well below 5 per cent and/or growth to surprise on the downside,” said Jain.

As such interest rates are expected to come down over the next few quarters, with little to no chance of them going up. That brings us back to the original question. Should individuals lock in their money now in long-term fixed deposits?

“With banks offering higher interest rates on special FDs, savers could consider locking in long-term deposits to benefit from these rates before a potential rate cut cycle begins,” said Kirang Gandhi, a personal finance mentor. He expects the RBI’s benchmark rate at which it lends money to commercial banks to come down by 100 basis points (1 per cent) by December 2025, with growth slowdown becoming apparent. “However, balancing liquidity needs and exploring other investment options may offer better long-term growth opportunities,” Gandhi noted.

Equity markets have given far superior returns over the last two to three years. However, of late, there has been a lot of volatility. The BSE Sensex having touched a life high of 85,978.25 on September 27 has closed below 82,000 on October 15. Fixed deposits in contrast offer slow, but steady returns. Ultimately, you should assess your risk appetite before allocating your money, especially if its a large sum.

You may also want to explore debt mutual funds. Should interest rates start falling, debt funds would benefit, as typically when rates fall, the value of the existing bonds these funds are holding rises and vice-versa.

“For those willing to take on a bit more risk, investing in high-quality investment-grade bonds can be a good option, potentially generating returns that outpace inflation on a post-tax basis,” said Nath of Ladderup. “However, for risk-averse investors seeking a fixed return without any risk, locking in a high-rate fixed deposit would be the better choice.”

the-coldplay-mania-shows-the-power-of-live-entertainment-and-its-immense-business-opportunity

Sat Oct 05 14:56:17 IST 2024

It was supposed to be an ‘adventure of a lifetime’ for Deepali Taneja. The academician from Delhi and her friends had made meticulous plans to buy tickets to the much-anticipated live concert by the British rock band Coldplay. “My friends and I had logged in much before 12 noon, the time when the tickets went live, and we were in contact with each other in real time,” she said.

The day, however, spiralled down into chaos, as Taneja, along with around 1.3 crore fans, got into a ‘digital stampede’ while trying to get their hands on the 1.65 lakh tickets on offer. It first led to the ticketing site BookMyShow crashing, before many found themselves in queues running into some 10 lakh people. “I kept trying between my phone and laptop, but to no avail,” said Deepali. “Now, more than the feeling of disappointment, I feel a sense of being scammed. Despite my best efforts, I missed the opportunity!”

Even adding a third concert (they were supposed to do only two) did not help, as tickets, ranging from Rs2,500 to Rs35,000 were snapped up within minutes. Worse, many landed up on international ticketing sites or in the black market that charge multiple times the original price. While BookMyShow spoke of “issues from suspicious and malicious traffic,” former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav said the tickets landing up in the black market “posed a serious challenge to governance”.

What the fiasco also proved was the coming of age of India’s live entertainment and ticketing sector. “India has emerged as a highly attractive and compelling destination for both domestic and international acts, with the burgeoning appetite for live entertainment events in the country,” said Owen Roncon, chief operating officer (live events) of BookMyShow, the organiser of the Coldplay event and many other high-profile live events.

According to a report by the Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce, the live events sector generated nearly Rs9,000 crore in revenue last year, and it is estimated to hit Rs14,300 crore by next year.

While Coldplay and other big events like Lollapalooza (a multi-act music festival scheduled for winter) and Punjabi superstar Diljit Dosanjh (sold out in minutes) may be the poster boys of the live entertainment sector, concerts are just one aspect of it. The live events business market ranges anything from theatre to stand up comedy to dance, literary events and, of course, sports.

And they are all on fire. If the IPL cricket franchise opened up the true scope of what a well-marketed live event can earn, those from fields as varied as literature and comedy are learning the lessons, and raking it in. Jaipur Literature Festival makes its moolah from sponsorship, but it recently went ticketed, more in an effort to cut down the number of attendees. One of the most sought-after outings this monsoon across Indian cities were candlelight concerts, where musical performances took place in Instagram-worthy backdrops.

The rise of standup comedy as a celebrity career encapsulates the trend of live events like no other. Comedians like Kanan Gill and Danny Fernandes count their social media followers in hundreds of thousands, and are on tour with their ticketed standup acts every other week. Earlier limited to comedy clubs and small bars, they are now increasingly playing to sold-out auditoriums. Vir Das’s controversial act in New York last year made it into a Netflix show, and bagged an International Emmy.

“Indians were exposed to different kinds of entertainment that crawled into our homes through phones and televisions during Covid, and they portrayed western world trends like standup comedy. Suddenly, the audience has woken up!” said Ambika Prasad Nanda, associate professor, Jagdish Sheth School of Management (JAGSoM), Bengaluru.

“Covid is an obvious reason, but it does not stop there,” said Nanda. “Many migrants to metros come from tier 2 and tier 3 cities where we traditionally have had a culture of going out for music and dance beyond films―from Ramnavami plays to Natya Shastra, our classical dances and many other folk forms. In the big city, they don’t usually get an opportunity to indulge in it, busy as they are dealing with work and the traffic snarls. And now they are looking for that connection which these experiences offer.”

BookMyShow says last year saw demand for live entertainment surging 82 per cent, with a 2.3 times increase in premium event-goers. “Our mission has always been to democratise access to entertainment, making it effortless and accessible,” said Roncon.

BookMyShow straddles the ticketing business, both events and cinemas, with an estimated 75 per cent market share. That has brought with it its fair share of criticism―detractors point out to the high ‘convenience fee’ the entity charges for tickets, because of its virtual monopoly.

It could well change soon. Competition is on the horizon with food aggregator Zomato acquiring the also-ran in the field, Paytm Insider. “Zomato sees the going-out business as a combination of multiple categories with strong network effects,” said its founder Deepinder Goyal. “The idea is to drive profitability at a combined level while allowing for different sub-categories to operate at different margin profiles.”

“For Zomato, this acquisition highlights its focus on the ‘revenge entertainment’ segment at a time when OTT players offer world entertainment at the customer’s fingertips,” said Srinivas Reddy, assistant professor (marketing management) at the T.A. Pai Management Institute, Manipal. While it could run into hurdles like BookMyShow’s binding agreements with multiplex chains, there are many other models it could work with, like smaller chains, single-screen theatres and non-film events. It can use its vast distribution network to go into smaller towns faster with value adds.

Zomato has already announced concerts by pop stars Dua Lipa and Bryan Adams to match BookMyShow’s Coldplay, and Shawn Mendes and Greenday at Lollapalooza.

Live concerts are big-ticket events. The revenue from the Coldplay concerts in Mumbai could be over Rs100 crore, while the consumer spending on travel, food and stay will be in multiples of that. Unsurprisingly, travel and hospitality majors are also looking at this in a big way. “The Indian travellers’ mindset has changed, they now seek experiences that are inspired by what they see, follow and admire,” said Santosh Kumar, India country Manager of Booking.com.

Globally, live events have been recognised to be game-changers for the economy. Singapore, which exclusively hosted American pop star Taylor Swift’s Eras World Tour in the region (much to many neighbours’ chagrin), claimed that its GDP growth of 2.7 per cent in the April-June period was in part due to the frenzy over the concert.

When pop queen Madonna closed out her Celebration tour with a free concert in Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana beach this summer, Brazilian authorities spent huge money (equivalent of Rs30 crore) in security and arrangements for the 16 lakh people who turned up. The benefit? With 170 extra flights bringing in fans from around the world who not only attended the concert but stayed, ate and drank, Brazil is estimated to have earned nearly Rs500 crore equivalent in taxes and ancillary revenues. There is a lesson in it for India as its nascent live events scene comes of age.

as-savvy-investors-seek-new-avenues-thematic-mutual-funds-are-gaining-popularity

Sat Sep 21 11:45:01 IST 2024

Mutual funds have taken off in a big way in the past few years. The surge started when central banks slashed interest rates during the Covid-19 pandemic, making investors chasing high returns turn to capital markets, either investing directly or via mutual funds. Interestingly, this phenomenon has survived the high interest rate phase of the past two years, and more and more investors are investing in equity now.

The latest data from Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI), says average assets managed by the Indian mutual fund industry was Rs66.04 lakh crore in August 2024, a 40 per cent jump over August 2023 when it was Rs46.94 lakh crore. Equity-oriented schemes now account for about 60 per cent of the industry assets, up from 52.7 per cent in August 2023.

Between January and August 2024, the total net inflow into equity mutual funds has been around 02.48 lakh crore. Just in August, some 64 lakh new systematic investment plans (SIP) were registered and the monthly SIP contribution hit a new high of Rs23,547.34 crore. While August was the 42nd consecutive month of positive equity inflows, one category of funds seems to have attracted a lot of interest this year―sectoral/thematic funds.

Sectoral funds are equity mutual funds that focus on businesses operating within a specific industry, like technology, health care, defence, energy, automobile, or financial services. There are funds that focus on specific themes like consumption, manufacturing, infrastructure or clean energy as well.

Such funds have received around Rs1.03 lakh crore in net inflows between January and August. What is driving this huge interest?

On the one hand, many savvy investors are seeking newer investment ideas. On the other, India’s economy is growing and government policies are opening up opportunities for newer sectors. That has driven the fund houses to launch more such funds targeting sectors and themes. “The mutual fund industry is thriving, riding the wave of opportunities across the Indian economy; hence we are seeing thematic and sectoral launches looking to capitalise on emerging opportunities and trends,” said D.P. Singh, deputy managing director and joint CEO of SBI Mutual Fund.

SBI MF is the country’s largest asset manager with average assets under management (AUM) of over 09.88 lakh crore in the April-June quarter. The fund house has launched several sectoral NFOs (new fund offerings) this year, the latest being the SBI Innovative Opportunities Fund, towards the end of July. The idea behind this fund was to invest in equity and equity-related instruments of companies that seek to benefit from the adoption of innovative strategies and themes. In February, SBI MF launched the energy opportunities fund and in May, the automotive opportunities fund.

“In an economy like India which is still evolving, opportunities exist across the spectrum with new industries mushrooming,” said Singh. “Today, for example, EVs are growing, as the ecosystem around will evolve with technological advancements. So energy as a theme is a big opportunity. There are similar opportunities across industries, and we will launch more funds if necessary.”

Several other fund houses have also cashed in on this sectoral theme. In August, for instance, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC launched the defence index fund, aiming to take advantage of the growing defence sector. Axis Mutual Fund has launched the Axis Consumption Fund, aiming to provide a diversified portfolio that reflects the broad spectrum of consumption-driven sectors like fast moving consumer goods, auto, telecom, real estate and health care.

“As our aspirations grow and spending power increases, companies in this space are positioned for sustained growth,” said Ashish Gupta, chief investment officer of Axis AMC. “The Axis Consumption Fund offers investors the opportunity to participate in this unfolding trend and aims to build a robust portfolio that captures this dynamic growth.”

Some themes did quite well in the past year. Mahesh Patil, chief investment officer at Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, said that PSU (public sector undertaking), defence, auto and energy had given excellent returns, thus creating more interest in themes.

It is worth noting that in order to bring uniformity, the Securities and Exchange Board of India in 2017 issued clear definitions for each fund category like large cap, small cap, mid cap and multi cap. As per the regulator’s guidelines, a fund house can have only one scheme in each category, although there are exceptions like index funds or exchange traded funds and sectoral/thematic funds. With most large fund houses already having schemes in the key categories, thematic funds and even index funds have offered new growth opportunities.

“From a mutual funds side, these are the only areas where you can add new products. Most mutual funds already have products in the traditional baskets. That is also fuelling new launches and the excitement in the thematic side,” said Patil.

Investing in thematic and sectoral funds, however, comes with several risks that investors need to keep in mind. “If you are evaluating sector and thematic funds, there are five challenges to be addressed. Performance is cyclical, timing is difficult, cost of mistiming is very high, unlike diversified funds, a ‘buy and hold’ approach may not work, and even if you get everything right, you are likely to be under-allocated,” said Jiral Mehta, senior research analyst at FundsIndia.

Many investors look at the performance of 1-2 years and then make their investment choices accordingly. But, they must remember that sectors do go through their cycles and what delivered last year may not deliver this year.

For instance, infrastructure mutual funds delivered anywhere between 61 per cent to 75 per cent over the past one year. But there have also been years when they delivered negative returns. In 2018, their annualised returns were negative 15-25 per cent. Many funds in the infra space had gained traction just before the 2008 global financial crisis. But after stellar returns initially, many of them went through a phase between 2008-14 where even their three-year and in some cases even five-year trailing returns were negative.

As far as sectoral or thematic funds go, one should stick to actively managed funds, given the fact that the stocks are carefully chosen and sector calls are taken by the fund manager, so an investor need not worry about the timing, said Mehta.

Investing in sectoral funds can be appealing for certain types of investors, but it is important to understand who they are best suited for and how they compare to broader strategies like large caps or flexi/multi caps, says Singh.

“These funds are suitable for experienced and nuanced investors who understand the impact of the sector/theme on the overall economy and how its growth can lead to potential gains in their portfolios. So, while diversified offerings are a must-have in the portfolio, those who have a higher risk appetite and would like exposure to a certain theme or sector can invest with a long-term investment horizon,” said Singh. According to him, investors should ensure diversified offerings occupy a larger part of their portfolio, along with these offerings in a satellite portion for potential boost to overall returns.

Most investors are better off investing in diversified equity funds where patience and a long-time horizon act as an advantage. “For experienced investors with a high-risk appetite, wanting to explore sector and thematic investing, we would suggest starting small with a limited exposure (less than 20 per cent) and increasing it over time as you gain experience and expertise,” said Mehta.

Index funds, which track a particular underlying index such as Sensex or NSE Nifty Next 50 or small cap 50 with little active fund manager decision making, have also gained traction in this backdrop. Fund houses are also seen taking innovative bets in index funds.

DSP, for instance, recently launched the Nifty top 10 equal weight index fund. Currently equity markets are at a high and valuations in several stocks and sectors appear expensive. In this context, it is wise to invest in areas showing relative underperformance, where there is a margin of safety and good growth potential, said Anil Ghelani, head of passive investments and products at DSP Mutual Fund.

“While there is growing interest in small and mid-cap stocks, the largest and mega-cap stocks appear to be trading at relatively more attractive valuations. Over the past four years, the market has witnessed significant depolarisation, leading to the underperformance of the top 10 stocks compared to broader indices. This relatively lower valuation and margin of safety could be seen as a good opportunity,” said Ghelani.

One reason passive funds (index funds and exchange traded funds) have generated interest is that they have extremely low cost. For instance, annual expense ratio (annual fee that fund houses charge for managing the fund) of index funds linked to the Nifty50 ranges between 0.2-0.3 per cent, while the actively managed large-cap funds have an expense ratio of about 1 per cent.

Passive funds are also more straightforward, providing investors with a clear understanding of their risk and return outcomes, said Ghelani. Although the overall AUM of passive funds is still low compared with active funds, in the large-cap category, for instance, index funds and ETFs have seen larger inflows compared with active funds over the past three years.

ETFs and index funds now account for around 17 per cent of the total MF industry AUM and that proportion is likely to increase to 25 per cent in next 3-5 years.

usage-driven-motor-insurance-policies-offer-several-benefits

Sat Sep 21 11:33:50 IST 2024

Looking to buy a new car insurance policy or renewing your existing one? The master circular issued by the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI) in June had some important guidelines that will help you.

IRDAI asked insurance companies to offer two options as first choice under motor insurance. One of the options was 'pay-as-you-drive' insurance cover.

As the name suggests, you pay premium on the motor insurance based on how much or how you drive rather than paying a flat fee. This is a comprehensive own-damage plus third-party motor insurance policy. The third party premium will continue to be determined by existing rules, but the own-damage premium is based on the number of kilometres that you drive. So, if you drive less, you pay less.

A few companies now offer this as an add-on cover. For instance, if you are driving less than 10,000km a year, HDFC Ergo lets you claim benefit up to 25 per cent of the basic own damage premium at the end of the policy year. When the policy expires, subject to providing distance travelled, one can claim the benefit.

Some companies also offer the 'pay-how-you-drive' option, where the premium is calculated based on how you drive your car. The safer you drive, the lower will be the premium.

Telematics and usage driven motor insurance offers several other benefits as well. “It offers feedback on driving habits, which can help improve driving behaviour and potentially increase safety,” said Shashi Kant Dahuja, executive director and chief underwriting officer at Shriram General Insurance. “Also, in the event of a claim, detailed data can help provide a clearer picture of what happened, leading to faster resolution.”

Shriram General Insurance offers pay as you drive as a usage-based add-on cover, under which the insured can get a discount on own damage premium. “To avail the benefit, at the time of policy inception, the insured need to declare the maximum kilometres the vehicle will run as per the opted kilometre plan,” said Dahuja.

Zuno General Insurance (formerly Edelweiss General Insurance) recently launched a usage based add-on option for its motor insurance customers, where, the user driving behaviour is analysed based on data collected through mobile telematics on the company's app. The policy holder can assess her driving skills and generate a points-based score. Based on the score, she can get a discount on insurance premium at the time of renewal. Shanai Ghosh, MD and CEO of Zuno General Insurance, said a policyholder could save up to 30 per cent on the premium, depending on the score.

According to a report by Fortune Business Insights, the global insurance telematics market was valued at $4.33 billion in 2023 and it is projected to grow to $5.03 billion in 2024 and $19.23 billion by 2032. In India, it is still at a nascent stage, though. “The starting point of telematics was that you had to pay extra for a device and you had to install it in your car. Both were barriers to adoption,” said Ghosh.

Dahuja said data privacy and security are also a concern among customers. “The collection and handling of personal and vehicle data raise privacy concerns among consumers. There may be apprehensions about how data is used and who has access to it.” Ensuring compliance with data protection regulations and addressing privacy concerns are crucial for insurance companies to gain customer trust, he said.

Modern cars have advanced technology features on board. By harnessing the data from these features, insurers can improve risk assessment, streamline claims management, offer personalised coverage and develop innovative insurance products, he added.

While such data- and usage-based motor insurance products were slow to take off, the Covid-19 pandemic gave it some boost. As remote work and work from home gained ground in many sectors, pay-as-you-drive plans started gaining popularity among hybrid/remote workers. Homemakers and those with more than one car are also attracted to this, according to an analysis by insurance distributor PolicyBazaar. Hybrid/remote or work-from-home employees account for 35 per cent of the pay-as-you-drive customer base.

“Hybrid/remote workers are more inclined towards distance slabs of 5,500km (33 per cent), 7,500km (29 per cent), and 2,500km (21 per cent). These choices reflect a mix of moderate to low annual mileage, aligning with the reduced commuting needs of remote workers,” said the report. These customers are predominantly located in cities like Bengaluru, Gurugram, Delhi, Pune and Hyderabad, which are the major tech hubs.

Homemakers make up around 15 per cent of the pay-as-you-drive customer base and households with multiple cars account for 25 per cent.

tata-was-supposed-to-work-its-midas-touch-and-transform-air-india-into-the-lord-of-the-skies

Sat Sep 14 12:39:52 IST 2024

Vistara started doing its wing waves a few days ago. The airline stopped taking bookings on September 3, and will be merged with Air India in two months.

A joint venture of Tata Sons and Singapore Airlines (SIA), Vistara was the only Indian airline to make it to the Top 20 list of World’s Best Airlines this year. But there was little reason for it to continue as a separate entity after Tata bought back Air India from the government in October 2021. It did not make sense for one company to run two full-service airlines, especially with the regulatory approval for SIA taking 26 per cent stake in Air India coming through some time ago.

But the reality in the sky is that there is a world of difference in the service quality offered by Air India and Vistara. “It is baffling that the civil aviation ministry allowed the merger of a modern, well-functioning airline like Vistara with an outdated one and has approved Tata’s decision to rebrand it as Air India,” commented Kapil Chopra, founder of EazyDiner and The Postcard group of hotels and former president of The Oberoi group of hotels.

THE MORE THINGS CHANGE….

When Air India returned to the Tata fold, the expectation was that it would reclaim the lost glory as one of the finest in the world. Instead, it took a turn for the worse. “If people were expecting miracles within a year, that is an impossible task. But now almost three years are over, it is time to show and demonstrate that there have been significant improvements in the operation of the airline,” said Sidharath Kapur, former executive director of GMR Airports and former CEO of Adani Airports. “The honeymoon period is over. People are now expecting more.”

THE PROBLEM WITH THE MIDAS TOUCH

“There is a belief that because Air India once belonged to the Tatas, they have the requisite experience (to run an airline). There can’t be a bigger fallacy than this!” said Jitender Bhargava, former executive director of Air India. “J.R.D. Tata personally, and not Bombay House (Tata Sons headquarters), managed Air India. So for anyone to believe that Tatas have the capability and they will make it into a world-class airline because of past experience is wrong.”

While Tata did get into aviation in the 2010s with AirAsia India and Vistara, both were more investment than operations. But once it acquired Air India, that changed. “Be it Titan (watches and jewellery), Taj hotels, TCS (software) or consumer businesses, there is a certain expectation when people see the Tata name. The airline business, unfortunately, has not lived up to that promise,” said Prof Anand Narasimha, brand expert and professor of marketing at JAGSoM and visiting faculty at IIM Bangalore. “In the airline business, you are not flying planes, you are flying people.”

Even for a salt-to-software conglomerate, the decision to buy a white elephant paying Rs18,000 crore (and a few thousands of crores after that on new orders) was “more an emotional decision than a strategic or rational one”, said Narasimha.

Compounding matters, the five-year transformation process called vihaan.ai saw a series of missteps. “They brought in people from other Tata group companies,” pointed out Kapur. “But then they realised that you cannot bring in, say, an executive from a vehicle manufacturer to run an airline. It takes years of experience to understand the operations of a complex international airline and be adept at it.”

To rectify this, many expat managers were brought in from SIA, including CEO Campbell Wilson, who was heading SIA’s budget airline Scoot.

MAN, NOT MACHINE

Some Air India employees took the voluntary retirement scheme Tata offered after the takeover. And many of those who chose to stay soon started feeling demoralised with “Tata’s own people lording over them”. The once glamorous job with pampering perks had suddenly become a difficult workplace.

“I took this job several years ago despite lucrative offers from other PSUs because a job at Air India was more sought-after, with lots of privileges and perks,” said a senior employee who didn’t want to be named. “But now many of those have been cut down ruthlessly by the new management, from passage facility (free tickets) to lifelong medical coverage. The government had assured us that all privileges will remain, but that word wasn’t kept.”

Adding insult to injury was the notion that Tata was inheriting an incompetent bunch of employees who had lost their edge. “The employees were not bad; they were just demoralised. Their enthusiasm had been killed and they were not led properly,” said Bhargava, “Tata just needed to re-engineer their work practices, but they did not take that course.”

Thus was set in motion perhaps the biggest mistake in Tata’s makeover of Air India―disregarding the employees and the importance of human resources. “Ask any management expert what the key to a merger is? Manpower. How do you integrate the manpower and bring about harmony in work conditions? Same thing again―HR!” said Bhargava. “When they knew the merger was going to take place, they should have taken a merger expert for the role, and not an HR director who was retiring in a few months!”

The result was a trial-and-error style of management which has caused angst across the board. It spilled over this summer with Vistara pilots and Air India Express cabin crew going on strike. “Employees have to understand they are no longer in a government-run airline and need to be productive, efficient and smart,” said Shivram Choudhry of JK Lakshmipat University’s Institute of Management. “Likewise, the management has to understand that this government background attitude will change, but over a period of time. But you can’t come with the attitude that everyone in Air India from the past was no good and anyone from Tata knows better!”

Choudhry said Tata was making the same mistake the government made when it merged Air India and Indian Airlines. “Instead of equipping them to survive and prosper amidst fierce global and domestic competition, that merged entity ended up reporting persistent losses year after year, leading to an accumulated loss of Rs16,000 crore,” he said.

STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS

In defence of Tata and its strategy is a core ingredient―and challenge―of the business: competition.

The emotional legacy and Tata’s track record of buying sick companies and turning them around apart, the only way the Air India acquisition would have made sense was eventually the airline transforming into a cash spewer―akin to Emirates or Singapore Airlines. The opportunity is very much there. India is the fastest growing civil aviation market in the world and even the 1,000-plus aircraft ordered by its airline companies may still turn out to be inadequate if the growth continues with the same momentum.

In this scenario, not using its prized airport slots all over the world or not flying on all the routes was not an option, even if your planes and crew were not the best. “If Air India had withdrawn those services, other airlines would have taken that market,” said Bhargava. “To regain that market share in the next five years after the new aircraft arrived would have taken considerable amount of time and money. Tata’s decision to continue despite using older planes is all about protecting the market share and growing it.”

Kapur puts it in perspective, “Tatas are a committed organisation and they have deep pockets,” he said. “I am sure they have a strategy in place in terms of aircraft maintenance, HR practices, network planning, turnaround time and profitability. But what is missing is a communication strategy. Air India is in the public arena and a lot of your stakeholders are potential passengers. And they want to know, ‘Should I be flying Air India or not?’”

TEST MATCH, NOT T20

It is not for want of trying, but the airline is saddled with old aircraft that desperately need repairs and makeover. Wilson had told THE WEEK a few months ago that with new Airbus A350s being added into the fleet, old planes would be sent for retrofitting. “The process includes painting with the new branding and livery, and changing the interiors and seats. So we have to see what value we get. The really old planes will not go for this and will be retired from service,” he said.

That, however, will take time, and until then, the management has been playing with the frills―changing the logo and livery, a new set of crew uniforms designed by Manish Malhotra and overhauling the airline’s digital infra.

The digital upgrade includes a new app and revamped website, an iPad app for cabin crew and facilities like baggage tracking and WhatsApp virtual assistant for passengers. “In the last one year, we have taken several initiatives to enhance customer experience, including digital channels, airport and inflight services and contact centre,” said Rajesh Dogra, chief customer experience officer, Air India.

Air India has been working on improving its frequent flyer programme ‘Flying Returns’, adding in anything from Legoland to cruise lines and rail systems in Europe where points can be used and bookings done seamlessly. The Maharaja lounges at Delhi T3 and New York’s JFK are also set to be refurbished into signature lounges. “We are confident that the modern, world-class look of Air India will appeal to our guests globally and serve as a strong reminder of all the remarkable changes that have come or are to come to their Air India experience,” said Wilson.

WHOSE AIR INDIA IS IT ANYWAY?

Air India may still surprise us after the five-year transformation is complete in 2027. But that does not mean that India’s aviation market will be its for the taking.

The intense competition, both domestic and international, is unlikely to ease up, despite the fact that the number of domestic airlines can be counted on one’s fingers. While airlines from the Middle East and the likes of Turkish Airlines are eyeing the growing and lucrative international market, runaway market leader IndiGo is in no mood to give way at the domestic front.

Air India’s strategy is to speed up the Vistara merger to create an impression of better quality levels in its full-service offering, even while shoring up its presence in the low-cost space by aggressively expanding Air India Express. IndiGo has already responded with beefing up its international network and codeshare partnerships aiming to become India’s global carrier, a position that conventionally belonged to Air India. It has also announced a full-service business class offering, ending any hopes that Air India will have monopoly in the premium full-service segment within the country.

Also, the globetrotting connoisseur with rarefied tastes―the typical image of a passenger from Air India’s glory days―has changed. Millennials and Gen Z travellers are not really bothered with the champagne’s temperature or the cutlery on board. If at all, they only have negative connotations of the airline, unlike an older generation who associate AI with royalty, national pride and jet set glamour. It will be tough to win them over when stories of bad passenger experiences abound on social media.

Tail wind

By K. Sunil Thomas

If money is the bottom line, Air India’s new management does have reasons to be happy. The airline is still in the red, but the losses have narrowed, showing that there is hope left for the Maharaja.

The overall losses of all four airlines of Tata came down from about Rs15,000 crore in 2023 fiscal to just above Rs6,000 crore this year. For Air India alone, the losses have come down 60 per cent from around Rs11,000 crore in 2023 down to Rs4,444 crore this year. The increase in turnover was an impressive 24 per cent to more than Rs50,000 crore!

How did the airline manage this feat, considering the fact that it has been labouring under a mountain of debt? “They maximised their load capacity, getting as many planes as functional as possible, and increased routes, seats and the load factor,” explained aviation expert Sidharath Kapur. Airfares were also rationalised, making Air India offer, in many instances, more competitive fares than the market leader IndiGo.

The airline has also been working on a two-pronged strategy of cutting expenditure where possible, especially on the administrative side, even while maximising add-on revenue, on anything from seat selection to excess baggage. While passengers may crib that Air India is going the IndiGo way by charging for extra weight, “all this amounts to revenue”, according to an industry insider.

Kapur feels that if Air India manages to stay on this course, it might even turn profitable in a few years. Meanwhile, sister-airline Air India Express has flown into the red posting losses of Rs163 crore―ironic because even during the dark days of bureaucracy-run inefficiency, it had mostly made profits. This could be attributed to its aggressive expansion domestically to take on IndiGo.

sagarmanthan-the-great-oceans-dialogue-mumbai-india-maritime-agenda

Sat Sep 14 12:31:26 IST 2024

THE NAME COULDN’T have been more apt. In Hindu mythology’s ‘Samudra Manthan’ (churning of the ocean), Mount Mandara was used as the churning stick and Vasuki, the thousand-headed snake, as the rope to extract ‘amrit’ (nectar) from the netherworlds. The gods who consumed the elixir became immortal, and therefore invincible.

In an ambitious, strategic move, the ministry of ports, shipping, and waterways (MoPSW) will be hosting ‘Sagarmanthan: The Great Oceans Dialogue’ in Mumbai on November 18 and 19. About 100 countries, including those from North America, South America, Europe, Eurasia, the Gulf, East Asia, South and Southeast Asia, Africa and the Quad are expected to participate. While announcing the mega event in Delhi on September 3, Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal said that the dialogue aims to churn ideas, strategies and solutions that will lead to a more sustainable and equitable future for the greater common good.

The dialogue’s focus will be to set India’s and the global south’s interests in the maritime agenda, which thus far had been governed by the global north; the global south’s voice had remained a faint echo, at best. It is part of a plan to claim India’s rightful place on the high table of global deliberations on policies, developmental effort and geopolitical strategy. The dialogue will be a veritable platform for critical conversations around blue economy, maritime logistics, ports, shipping and waterways, critical minerals, diversified supply chains, global maritime economy and training and labour standards. There will be stakeholders from across fields, including leaders, policymakers, strategic thinkers, intergovernmental organisations, maritime policy research institutions and industry.

“There can be no doubt that we need to infuse new dynamism to reinvent India’s maritime prowess, more so when blessed with a long coastline and island chains on both sides of peninsular India,” Commodore R.S. Vasan (retd), regional director of the National Maritime Foundation, Tamil Nadu, told THE WEEK.

Today, 95 per cent of India’s global trade by volume and 70 per cent by value are carried out on the oceans, and India is the third largest in terms of ship recycling by tonnage. Despite being strategically located on the world’s shipping routes and with more than 7,500km of coastline, India is only the 16th largest maritime country in the world.

“For some unexplained reasons, to some extent attributed to ocean blindness, the shipping and port sector remained largely neglected,” said Vasan. “We have not progressed beyond the 12 major ports that were barely adequate to meet the demands of a growing economy. The fact that even today we are dependent on Colombo and Singapore for transshipment of merchandise is entirely due to non-development of suitable deep water modern ports. The glorious past, unfortunately, was left behind only to be eulogised.”

This has made the government sit up and act. “Whether it is connecting the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean through the India-Middle East-Europe-Economic Corridor or opening immense trade and economic opportunities for the land-locked countries of Central Asia by building the International North-South Transport Corridor, the goal is clear―‘sabka saath, sabka vikas’,” said Sonowal.

A ministry official added that it is imperative for India, as it moves from the fifth-largest to the third-largest economy, to establish a more prominent presence in the global maritime governance matrix. “The realisation of our economic goals depends significantly on the strength of our maritime sector,” said Sonowal. “This includes our ability to shape global narratives, maintain resilient global supply chains and secure important maritime partnerships.”

And already the churn has set in. During the Global Maritime India Summit held in Mumbai last October, 360 MoUs totalling Rs10 lakh crore were signed with foreign and domestic stakeholders on government-to-government and business-to-business modes.

The MoUs include port development, modernisation, cruise sector, business and commerce, shipbuilding and knowledge sharing.

One such iconic project has been the development of the greenfield mega container port at Vadhavan on India’s west coast. The Vadhvan port development will create around one lakh jobs during construction and more than 12 lakh jobs once operational. In the 2023 Container Port Performance Index by the World Bank, nine Indian ports find a place among the top 100, with Visakhapatnam port in the top 20.

“The progress is indeed notable and there are visible signs of momentum in the ecosystem,” said Vasan, who is also director-general of Chennai Centre for China Studies. “The investment in spokes and hubs as part of rail, road, sea and river projects were long overdue and the planned projects would complement the aspirations of a maritime power. The inland waterways have taken rapid strides in the last decade or so and there are visible results along the Brahmaputra and Ganga. The operationalisation of Vizhinjam and modernisation of ports on both coasts have paid rich dividends and opened up new vistas. The plans for Galathia port in Nicobar would serve the needs of both the mercantile marine and the Indian Navy in the coming decades.”

About 15 per cent of global seafarers are from India, while the same cannot be said of India’s merchant fleet that accounts for just about two per cent of global tonnage. This is a serious setback as even today major tonnage is transported in Chinese hulls. In this context, the maritime vision document released by the government sets the right targets for concerned stakeholders.

Said Vasan: “India has its task cut out to overcome the hesitations of history to regain past glory of the Cholas, Kalingas and other kingdoms of yore, who harnessed the seas for wielding influence beyond the shores.”

hindenburg-allegations-put-spotlight-on-probity-of-regulators

Sat Aug 17 15:06:37 IST 2024

THE BJP SAYS IT is a conspiracy to destabilise India’s financial markets. The Congress wants a joint parliament committee probe. Irrespective of which side you are on, the latest report by Hindenburg Research has put the market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India and its chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch in a spot over conflict of interest. It also raises broader compliance issues the very regulator has looked to address over the years.

Founded by Nathan Anderson, the New-York-based Hindenburg specialises in forensic financial research. In particular, it looks for situations where companies might have accounting irregularities, bad actors in management, undisclosed transactions, unethical business practices, undisclosed regulatory issues and the like. And it also aims to profit from its research through short-selling, a trading strategy where stock traders take a position that a particular stock price will fall. Often its report itself drives the stock price lower, like it did in January 2023, when its report on Adani Group alleging accounting fraud, stock price manipulation and money laundering wiped off around $150 billion in the group’s market cap. Hindenburg made $4.1 million revenue by shorting Adani securities on behalf of its client.

In its latest report, Hindenburg alleged that despite enough evidence, SEBI did not act against Adani. It alleges that Buch and her husband, Dhaval, had investments in the same obscure offshore funds used by Adani Group chairman Gautam Adani’s brother Vinod. It also alleged that while Dhaval was a senior adviser at American investment management company Blackstone and Buch was a SEBI official, two Blackstone-sponsored real estate investment trusts (REITs) received the approval to go public in India, and after she became chair, SEBI implemented several REITs regulations that benefited Blackstone.

Another allegation was that Buch had set up two advisory firms, one in Singapore and the other in India, and held 99 per cent stake in the Indian firm and that firm had generated $261,000 revenue from consulting in financial year 2022, which was 4.4 times her disclosed salary as a whole-time member of SEBI.

The Buchs responded with point-by-point answers to the allegation. For instance, they said they invested in the fund (IPE Plus Fund 1) when they were working in Singapore and they did so because the CIO Anil Ahuja was Dhaval’s childhood friend. The investments were made in 2015 and redeemed in 2018 when Ahuja left. She said that the consulting firms she had set up had become dormant on her appointment at SEBI and once the shareholding of the Singapore entity was transferred to her husband, it was disclosed to SEBI as well as Singapore authorities.

J.N. Gupta, former executive director of SEBI, said there was no way that the Buchs would have known who the other investors were in a fund. “Would you ask for details of all investors in a mutual fund before investing? These expectations are irrational,” he said.

According to Shriram Subramanian, founder of the proxy advisory firm InGovern, the Hindenburg allegations against Buch were “amateurish” and seemed “vindictive without any depth of analysis”. “She has not gained anything from being an investor in the IPE Plus Fund, her shareholdings in the Indian and Singapore consultancy firms are fairly straightforward and on an ongoing basis, SEBI officials, including the whole-time members and chairperson have to internally disclose their personal investments and commercial interests,” he said.

SEBI, too, clarified that she had made all relevant disclosures of securities holdings and recused herself when necessary. According to Gupta, the current disclosure norms for SEBI officials are robust, with them having to declare all assets and investments. And they can’t invest in shares of listed companies.

Nonetheless, the whole episode has raised many concerns.

“This can be viewed as a wake-up call for SEBI and other regulators,” said Subramanian. “The chairs and top officials should disclose and put their wealth and investments into blind trusts.” Blind trusts are typically set up where an individual needs to avoid a conflict of interest between her work and personal investments. In countries like Canada and the US, it predominantly applies to government officials. In a blind trust, the individual assigns all her assets to a trustee, who is then in charge of all the decision making related to the assets.

Columnist and author Debashis Basu said it was not a corporate governance issue. “It is about the probity of the regulator, which has been pushing enormous burden of disclosure and compliance on market participants,” he said. “SEBI already has board members from the finance ministry and the RBI who can start by asking some questions if needed,” he said.

An independent inquiry seems to be the best way to protect the reputation of SEBI and its leadership. “If the claims are substantiated, it might call for a review of oversight mechanisms and personal accountability within SEBI. If they are found baseless, it is crucial to understand the motives behind such allegations and the potential impacts on the market. Either way, it underscores the need for robust systems to prevent and address conflicts of interest and ensure that the market operates transparently and fairly,” said Akshat Khetan, founder of AU Corporate Advisory and Legal Services.

While the new Hindenburg report has put the spotlight on the regulator and its chief, what is the status of the Adani investigation?

The Supreme Court had in January noted that SEBI had completed 22 of 24 investigations related to Adani Group. According to SEBI, another one has been completed in March and the last remaining investigation is close to completion. Apparently, it examined some 300 documents, issued more than 100 summonses and sent around 1,100 emails seeking information.

SEBI had issued a show-cause notice to Hindenburg in June over violations of securities laws. The regulator said that the proceedings are going on.

The episode has resulted in a political slugfest as well. The government has so far shown no inclination to give in to the opposition’s demand for a JPC probe. The opposition is likely to keep up the pressure. The equity markets’ response to the new Hindenburg report was significantly muted than the first one, perhaps because of the diminished shock value. But surely, we have not heard the last of the Hindenburg versus Adani and SEBI saga.

ex-imf-official-krishnamurthy-v-subramanian-about-india-economic-development-2047

Wed Aug 21 21:20:27 IST 2024

Interview/ Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian, executive director of IMF and former CEA

Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian has several titles you are free to choose from―the regular ‘Mr’ to ‘Er’ for his engineering degree from IIT Kanpur to 'Dr' for his doctorate in financial economics from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, or the one he seems to personally prefer, ‘Prof’ from his academic days at the Indian School of Business in Hyderabad. Subramanian, however, would brook no argument on India’s prospects of becoming a global economic leader by 2047.

He does have a little more than an ordinary citizen's stake in it, having been instrumental in formulating the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ and ‘Vocal for Local’ restructuring of India’s economic policy during his days as the chief economic adviser. He followed this up with the longer-term ‘Amrit Kaal 2047’ blueprint for India becoming a developed nation. It is also the foundation for his new book, India @100; Envisioning Tomorrow’s Economic Powerhouse (Rupa). Currently executive director at the International Monetary Fund, Subramanian espouses his fervent belief that India is all set to grab this ‘once-in-a-few-centuries’ opportunity. Excerpts from an interview:

Q You have painted such a rosy picture of India’s future in your book, like its GDP touching $55 trillion in 2047.

A This outcome hinges on whether we can grow at 8 per cent from now on till 2047. Of course, I have portrayed other scenarios as well. Even if we grow at 7 per cent, we will be $40 trillion and, if we grow only at 6 per cent, we will still be $30 trillion.

If some risks manifest it is possible that growth may be lower. Eight per cent is ambitious but achievable especially given the demography we have, the kind of policies that have been implemented over the past 10 years, the public digital infrastructure, the innovation and the entrepreneurship.

Also, anywhere between two-thirds to three-quarters of our economy is informal, and informal sector firms are far less productive than formal sector firms. So the emphasis on formalisation that is happening through the public digital infrastructure will be a key driver of productivity improvement.

And for the first time, we have entered the top 40 innovative countries list. So these will drive productivity improvements in the formal sector as well. When you put it all together, there are potential headwinds and potential tailwinds.

Q You say India has a once-in-a-century opportunity.

A I did not say once in a century; I said once-in-a-few-centuries opportunity! If we indeed grow at 8 per cent, we will be a $55 trillion economy. In that case we will be rubbing shoulders with the top economy of that time. The last time India was of a similar size to a top economy was in the 13th or 14th century. India accounted for at least one-third of the world's GDP consistently for every century up until 1750 CE. So we could be the second largest economy or maybe very, very similar in size to the largest economy.

Q What are the factors that will contribute to it? You mentioned the demographic dividend, but that could very well turn into a burden.

A The first is the formalisation of the economy, where informal sector firms come into the formal sector and thereby become far more productive.

You have to remember that growth comes from two key things. One is investment and the other is productivity improvements. We have to maintain about 35 per cent of GDP as investment. A key driver is productivity growth from informal sector firms becoming formalised. Then the significant improvements that have happened in innovation and entrepreneurship. In the interim budget, Rs1 lakh crore of long-term funding for innovation was announced. Together with the National Research Foundation, this will enable innovation. So, innovation and entrepreneurship will lead to productivity improvements, even among formal sector firms that still have a long way to catch up with the formal sector firms internationally.

I have laid out a four-pillared economic strategy for India. The first pillar is macroeconomic force and focus on economic growth. The second pillar is social and economic inclusion. The third pillar is ethical money making. We did not become a stellar economy by following the socialist model. If anything, by following the socialist model from 1947 to 1991, we really lagged behind while East Asian economies, South Korea, Singapore all grew.

And the last point is entrepreneurship and the wealth and jobs they can create. Whether it is wealthy individual X or wealthy individual Y, they are not stacking rupee bills in their mattresses. Their wealth is invested in companies that provide jobs. Wealth creation leads to job creation. Wealth creators need to be respected. This is a narrative change that is required.

Q We have seen a huge dearth of jobs and, in fact, the budget also addressed it to some extent, admitting that there is an issue.

A The narrative on employment has run far ahead of the actual data. A lot of the negative narrative on employment actually comes from very poor quality data that the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy provides. If you look at the Reserve Bank of India report, it shows that over the past 10 years 12.5 crore jobs have been created. Just because the government is working on employment creation, that does not mean that jobs have not been created. The data shows it clearly.

Q You have mentioned that the slowdown before Covid originated due to the crony bank lending during the UPA era. Didn't demonetisation and other factors also contribute to it?

A Many people mention demonetisation. I want to point out the paper by my colleague at IMF, Gita Gopinath. They tried very hard to find the effect of demonetisation on growth and found no such impact. I think it is time we actually let the data speak here. Rather than going by just anecdotal accounts, we should be respecting empirical evidence.

Q You have made a confident, optimistic outlook of India's future. What could actually trip it up? Could a regime change, one with a different kind of economic policy coming in, pose a danger?

A What is important is good policies. In the past 10 years, we've had good economic policies, starting from the 500 million bank accounts that enabled us to do the JAM trinity (Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile), the IBC (insolvency and bankruptcy code), the way we dealt with Covid, both on the health front and on the economic front, rather than mimicking advanced economies.

People who live in the US and come here for a few days on vacation do not have such a good understanding of the Indian economic landscape as one has when you actually live here. At the same time, those who live here also need to be aware of what other countries are doing. A combination of both is what is required for policy.

We should not just cut-paste what advanced economies have done. For instance, the Maastricht Treaty for Europe requires countries to keep fiscal deficit at 3 per cent of the GDP. Our Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act just cut-pasted that without accounting for the fact that India is at a very different stage of development where the sovereign has to create public goods, be it digital public goods, physical public goods, or human capital public goods. At the same time, our growth potential is much higher than that of Europe. Yet, we did cut-paste without taking into account some of these very important aspects. So the key risk is actually in not implementing good economic policies.

nmdc-has-made-a-commitment-to-responsible-mining

Sat Aug 10 15:40:13 IST 2024

Interview/Amitava Mukherjee, Chairman and Managing Director, NMDC

An impressive increase in sales (16 per cent) and production of iron ore (10 per cent) was witnessed during 2023-24 as compared to the last financial year. What efforts went into achieving these figures?

The volumes delivered by NMDC in FY24 were indeed impressive. The production of 45.1 MT and sales of 44.4 MT, made NMDC the first iron ore mining company in India to surpass the 45 million tonne milestone! With strategic agility towards capacity building, we outperformed the capex target for FY24 with an expenditure of Rs2,014 crore, up by 14 per cent of the target.

Strategic investment in manpower, machine, and material led to streamlined projects and enhanced operations. In FY24, a new vertical―‘Works Organisation’ was also introduced in the company line for timely execution and monitoring of projects. Some achievements of building dedicated responsibility centres in the company were commencement of operations from the Kumar Marenga stockyard, implementation of an all inclusive pricing mechanism, and development of digital business intelligence.

Our key iron ore mining projects in Bailadila and Donimalai range played a crucial role in this performance by delivering their best-ever volumes since the company's inception. The initiatives of the top management, the policy and direction from a dynamic Board at the hub and devoted and resilient workforce at the spoke have propelled the company to surpass all expectations. NMDC has demonstrated its sheer strength in FY24, inspiring confidence in the vision of producing 100 million tonnes of iron ore by 2030.

Doors to a new R&D facility were recently opened by NMDC in Hyderabad. What is your take on Research and Development at NMDC in the coming years?

NMDC has invested Rs150 crore towards research and development in the past five years, which we view as an investment in the future of the Indian mining industry. Our R&D is a part of our long standing commitment and vision anchored in the ambition of ensuring mineral security and self-reliance.

In the budget session, the finance minister has reduced customs duty on rare earth metals and critical minerals. What impact will it have on NMDC’s exploration exercises and operations?

The cutback in customs duty on rare earth metals and critical minerals by the honourable finance minister presents a fitting opportunity to the mining companies of the country. This policy shift will bring down the cost of importing essential equipment and new age technology; enabling the industrial effort to accelerate exploration of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel. Battery minerals are becoming increasingly essential for our transition to electric vehicles and other renewable energy solutions.

In our diversification roadmap, lithium, cobalt and nickel prominently feature in the list and so it is a very welcome decision for NMDC. It will encourage our exploration and collaboration initiatives while promoting investment in R&D and the expansion of our mineral portfolio. This intervention supports our ambition to become a key player in the global market for critical minerals and be one of the first mining companies in India to bring lithium home.

A catalyst in the changing mineral landscape, the new policy gives us a competitive edge. With the determination to leverage this opportunity, NMDC is gearing up to make a key contribution to the green growth of India’s mining sector.

In the new financial year, what are the initiatives, interests, and plans of NMDC?

We are poised to build up our market leadership in FY25 towards the goal of 100 million tonnes production capacity by 2030. Our primary focus will be on enhancing production and evacuation capacities and to this end, a capital expenditure of Rs2,500 crore has been earmarked for this financial year. NMDC will be investing in mine infrastructure and intelligent equipment to boost productivity and efficiency.

We are also keen on expanding our mineral and geographical footprint. The team is exploring opportunities in Australia, Africa, South East Asia and Latin America to mine strategic minerals of national interest―iron ore, coking coal, lithium and battery minerals.

NMDC has made a commitment to responsible mining. We have outlined key performance indicators to assess the progress and efficacy of our ESG initiatives. In FY25, we aim to weave sustainability into the fabric of our company’s overall business goals, decision making, risk management, strategic investment and future planning.

badra-coffee-is-brewing-a-shake-up-in-the-coffee-market

Fri Aug 02 16:37:32 IST 2024

Do you like your coffee? Or do you just drink it out of habit? If your answer is ‘yes’ to the second question, Jacob Mammen, managing director of Badra Estates in Chikkamagaluru in Karnataka might have a solution for you.

Badra Coffee is all set to launch four blends for the retail market. Three of them, Temple Mountain (Arabica), Misty Heights (single estate) and Kaapi Nirvana (filter), are pure coffees, while Dakshin Fusion is a filter coffee with chicory. “Explore a basket of flavours direct from our farm, grown, roasted and curated by us available soon,” says Mammen. These will soon be available to the Indian consumers.

Mammen’s great-grandfather bought the estate from Brooke Bond Ltd. Three generations of the family have run Badra Estates and Industries Ltd, which was formed in 1943. “Things were quite different in the beginning. The Coffee market was fully regulated. All growers pooled their coffee with the Coffee Board of India. We had no control after coffee left the farm,” says Mammen. In 1997, the government allowed growers to sell their coffee. Badra started exploring export possibilities then, and has been focusing on specialty coffee ever since.

Mammen is a true believer in developing specialty coffee, and he worked with reputable international buyers to improve the quality of Badra Coffee. “We call it relationship coffees,” he says. “We interact with our buyers to understand their requirements of different flavour profiles, and then work on developing coffees that specifically suit them.”

Special attention is also given to manufacturing, which involves washed, semi-washed, and unwashed processes. The company has done different trials in fermentation and has been working with a German buyer who collaborates with the German government. Scientists from Germany come to the farm during harvest. They collect samples after many trials. The samples are then taken to their labs in Berlin where they isolate the beneficial microbes prevalent on different estates. These microbes are then used to tweak fermentation and produce a basket of flavours.

The focus on collaboration has led to a range of coffees that could be as wide as what is available in the wine industry. Climate, altitude, soil, farming methods, plant varieties and microclimate all play a role in developing flavour. In general, Indian coffees are of medium acidity, which is very good for an espresso.

Taste is everything in the specialty coffee market. Badra Coffee sells coffee based on taste and flavour. The company’s experts tailor-make coffees to customer requirements. “Every process, from bean to cup, affects the taste of coffee. All processes from growing to roasting are handled in-house and not outsourced,” says Mammen.

India is just one of the many markets that international buyers shop from. “Usually our customers are roasters and they buy from all over the world,” says Mammen. “As a seller, we must know what buyers are looking for in our coffees. So we must understand whether they are looking for espresso, stand-alone, filter, blend or any other special taste characteristics. They interact with us and cup coffees to find out what matches their requirements.” Badra Coffee mainly sells to niche coffee roasters in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Germany, Italy, the UK, Norway, Greece and the US.

Over the years, however, the coffee industry in India has changed dramatically. Climate change and labour issues have posed new and difficult challenges for growers. On the positive side of the spectrum, coffee consumption and consumer interest in coffee have drastically increased. As a result, Badra Coffee has now decided to move beyond relationship coffees as the Indian consumer is asking for more.

“The Indian coffee market has evolved a lot,” says Mammen. “With Indian consumers becoming increasingly discerning, they now seek detailed information about the origin and flavours of their coffee. In response to this demand, we offer both roasted beans and ground coffee tailored to customer requirements. This is the opportunity to move to the next level of the roast and the ground segment.”

The domestic special and specialty coffee market is still small but growing. Mammen gives the credit for this growth to Cafe Coffee Day, which set up coffee outlets all over this tea-drinking country. “Of late, with so many people popularising coffee, young people are now very interested in it,” he says.

This is the first time Badra Coffee is selling a finished product to retail customers. “We are in total control of our coffees. We are a seed-to-cup company. So if you are looking to savour every sip of your coffee rather than just drink it out of habit, give some of Badra Coffee’s blends a try for a truly sensational bean-to-cup experience,” says Mammen.

made-by-political-compulsions-nirmala-sitharaman-s-budget-is-meant-for-political-outcomes

Sat Jul 27 13:20:05 IST 2024

A LOT HAS CHANGED in a few months, and it was clearly evident in the Modi 3.0 government’s first budget.

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented an interim budget on February 1 against the backdrop of the confidence that the BJP-led government would return to power with a larger majority, and her speech dwelled on the achievements of the BJP’s decade-long rule. On July 23, Sitharaman’s speech presenting the full budget was just 30 minutes longer than the previous one, and conveyed a succinct message reflecting the new political landscape.

With an apparent hint of course correction, the focus shifted to job creation, putting more money in the pockets of the middle class, and giving the rural economy a boost, signalling that the government was sensitive to their distress. According to a survey by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, unemployment rate in India rose sharply to 9.2 per cent in June 2024 from 7 per cent in May. The budget’s job pitch may provide relief to the youth and the middle class.

The political intent of the budget outweighed the big-ticket reforms the government had promised before the 2024 polls. But what marks the continuity from the interim budget is the promised fiscal consolidation―with the targeted fiscal deficit going down to 4.9 per cent of the GDP from the 5.1 per cent set in February―and the infrastructure push. Also, the finance minister did not quote any poet, just like the interim budget, and kept her speech short.

What stood out was the prominence of new realities. The government paid the political MSP (minimum support price) to its two most important allies―Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party―as the finance minister announced budgetary allocations and a promise to get more from financial institutions. Together these parties provide the support of 28 MPs in the Lok Sabha and they seem to have exacted a cost as they wanted more than just plum cabinet berths.

Naidu with his 16 MPs is crucial for the NDA government’s survival and he has reasons to feel satisfied now that his dream capital, Amaravati, on the banks of the Krishna, will see the light of the day with Sitharaman promising Rs15,000 crore and more funds later, apart from a commitment on the Polavaram irrigation project, which aims to irrigate 4.36 lakh acres and generate 960 MW power. “It is an emotional issue for Andhra Pradesh as we were working without a capital in the last five years,” said TDP leader and Civil Aviation Minister K. Ram Mohan Naidu. “Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said we will take care of you. People see what has been promised before polls have been delivered.”

With Naidu, the BJP may look at a stable partnership ahead, but with Nitish, it has a chequered past. In an apparent poll pitch, Sitharaman announced Rs26,000 crore worth of road projects while promising more hospitals, airports, and sports complexes apart from developing an industrial node and religious sites in Gaya and a 2,400MW power project at a cost of Rs21,400 crore. She also announced financial support of Rs11,500 crore for flood control measures in the state. For the politicised state, however, the announcements may not mean much. “These are routine announcements. What’s so special about these? We want special status. Nitish Kumar has discarded the special status demand,” said RJD leader Manoj Jha.

The allies in Bihar and Andhra Pradesh might have got enough, but the poll-bound Maharashtra and Haryana failed to find any mention in the budget, kicking up a political storm. Former Maharashtra chief minister Prithviraj Chavan said the budget was only about Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. “And that is why Maharashtra has suffered. There is nothing new for Maharashtra. All that we got was continuation of existing schemes like funding for highways and metro,” said the Congress leader.

Sitharaman, however, said in the Rajya Sabha a day after the budget that all states were not necessarily mentioned in the budget. “PM Modi has already approved Vadhavan port in Maharashtra at a cost of Rs76,000 crore,” she said.

The BJP might have raised a saleable poll pitch for the assembly elections, but the government would have to deliver on its other biggest focus of this budget―jobs and agriculture―to get any traction in Haryana and Maharashtra. In fact, the subtle change in the government’s theme comes with visible emphasis on the middle class, an opinionated section of society that had largely supported the party and hailed Modi. This aspirational class had felt the pinch of inflation and unemployment, and wanted more in the pockets to spend and to save.

The budget made mobile phones and gold cheaper, two things the middle class spend a lot of money on. Wooing them makes political sense, considering their growing size. The government claims to have added 25 crore to the category in the past 10 years. The BJP clearly suffered from the strong undercurrent during the polls generated by a lack of employment opportunities. The series of question paper leaks has only exacerbated the situation. And, as the polls results indicated, people needed more than just guarantees.

The finance minister spent a significant part of her budget speech on job creation. She labelled it as the prime minister’s package of five schemes and initiatives. The package aims to facilitate employment, skilling, and other opportunities for 4.1 crore youth over a five-year period with a central outlay of Rs2 lakh crore.

An innovative scheme announced was of internship opportunities in 500 top companies to one crore youth in five years. The interns will get an allowance of Rs5,000 per month, along with a one-time assistance of Rs6,000. The Congress pointed out that the scheme was lifted from its manifesto.

“They should have the seen full budget,” senior BJP leader Ravi Shankar Prasad retorted. “It is a budget for the country’s progress.”

It was also a budget where the chorus to restructure the income tax slabs had been the loudest. The government gave in to the demand, announcing some tax relief for the salaried as the middle class that have been impacted by the price rise. The finance minister proposed to increase the standard deduction for salaried employees from Rs50,000 to Rs75,000. Also, the deduction on family pension for pensioners is proposed to be enhanced from Rs15,000 to Rs25,000 under the new tax regime. This will provide relief to about four crore salaried individuals and pensioners. The tax slabs were also revised to give benefits to middle-income employees.

The big challenge staring at the government in the next five years is going to be from farmers. As several organisations have been preparing for another round of agitation demanding legal guarantee on minimum support price for crops, Sitharaman could not have ignored it. In fact, she started her budget speech mentioning farmers and agriculture.

The forgotten dream of “doubling farmers’ income by 2022” has now been replaced with realistic increasing productivity and resilience in agriculture. “A provision of Rs1.52 lakh crore has been made for the agriculture and allied sectors with an aim to enhance productivity and resilience through missions for oil seeds and clusters for vegetable production,” she said.

Senior farmer leader Vijay Jawandhia, however, slammed the budget as the one which is fooling farmers. “The message for farmers is to quit farming and villages, move to cities and work on infrastructure projects on low pay and get the free ration given by the government and remain satisfied. This is new colonialism. This is a budget which is making ‘Bharat’ a slave of the new Super India,” he said.

The budget, being the first policy document of the government, has signalled that it was ready to listen to people while maintaining fiscal prudence. It was also the new government’s first big test. We will know the results in the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly polls.

With Dnyanesh Jathar

while-remaining-true-to-the-modi-governments-long-term-vision-the-budget-tries-to-address-the-immediate-challenges

Sat Jul 27 13:16:42 IST 2024

RS11,11,111 CRORE. Earmarked for infrastructure projects, this assumedly auspicious number in this year’s budget does have a nice ring to it. Another expected figure, however, was surprisingly missing―the $4 trillion mark that India’s GDP is set to cross this year.

What is not surprising was the absence of the usual hyperbole. Walking the tightrope between political expediency and long-term ‘Amrit Kaal’ goals, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had bigger shrimps (considering their regular appearance in her budget speeches) to fry.

TWO BIRDS WITH ONE STONE

While the political need of keeping the two main coalition partners, from Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, well-fed and happy was taken care of with an unabashed, almost embarrassing, largesse, a bigger issue remained―an economic boom that is not creating enough jobs and seemed to be benefitting only those at the top of the pyramid.

Sitharaman’s remedy? A two-pronged approach of pushing for skilling, education loans and job creation while doubling down on domestic manufacturing and wooing investment. The jobs push has a central outlay of Rs2 lakh crore over a period of five years and it would benefit 4.1crore youth. It includes not just schemes for skilling the young and providing education loans, but an ‘employment linked incentive’, which will pay Rs15,000 to new employees. The aim is to coax entrepreneurs and corporates to offer jobs, and also get more private sector professionals registered in the Employees Provident Fund Office (EPFO), by taking care of a portion of their contribution to the EPFO for a period.

“The budget’s commitment to boosting education, employment and skill building… are steps in the right direction,” said Raghav Gupta, MD (India and Asia Pacific) of Coursera. “The provision for gaining industry experience through internships with 500 top companies can address the rapidly growing skills gap and social inequities, ensuring students’ transition smoothly into high-demand job roles.”

The success of these initiatives, however, will depend on how well they will bridge the gap between classroom learning and workplace demands. “If implemented effectively, it could profoundly transform our educational landscape,” said Monica Soni, professor, JKLU Institute of Management in Jaipur.

The job push will work only if there are enough entrepreneurs offering jobs. This is where MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises) get some attention. Facilitating easier loans for MSMEs and establishing e-commerce hubs in MSME clusters form the crux of Sitharaman’s several initiatives for the sector.

Tarun Chugh, CEO of Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance, said the focus on developing skills and generating employment laid the groundwork for a robust and sustainable economic growth.

That exactly was the intention. “We want more investment to come into this country,” Sitharaman said after the budget presentation on her measures to woo foreign direct investment (FDI), which included slashing of corporate tax for foreign companies. She knows well that big numbers in jobs are possible only with big-ticket investments, and who better to do that than multinational giants coming on the wing of ‘China plus one’ and a prayer for ease of doing business.

STRENGTH IN NUMBERS

Of course, Sitharaman also knows that while big ticket foreign investment gives the country bragging rights, it is not the basket you put all your eggs in. This is where the many other announcements, be it the emphasis on energy transition, funding for innovation and research, multiplying capital expenditure for private space startups and, most importantly, the reduction of basic customs duty on a plethora of items come in. This reduction of duty on anything from solar panels to critical minerals like lithium, precious metals like gold and silver and many raw materials and components for electronics manufacturing, petrochemicals and telecom sectors are specifically meant to give a fillip to their local manufacturing base.

Take, for instance, the cut in the customs duty on gold, silver and platinum. As revenue secretary Sanjay Malhotra clarified, the decision was taken considering India’s growing importance as a business and processing hub for precious stones and metals. “We have 50 lakh Indians employed in this sector,” he said.

The ‘Make in India’ push is clear from the rejigging of tariffs and policies―telecom equipment duty goes up to 15 per cent in an effort to entice local manufacturing, while the period of export of goods imported for repairs has been extended from six months to one year in aviation and shipping in hopes of attracting international business in maintenance, repair and overhauling.

NIRMALA’S NIGHTMARE

While the government’s best intention is reaping a GDP windfall from a combination of skilling and job incentives plus businesses investing more money and employing more people, there is a recurring worst-case-scenario in it. FDI fell 43 per cent last year, the lowest in 17 years, with many foreign investors preferring Indian bourses to doing business here.

Domestic industry, meanwhile, has been holding off on investing in new capacity. This is despite a consistent pampering of the formal economy biggies with massive government spending in infra and logistics. While this has helped shareholders of India Inc fatten their wallets, a reciprocal pumping of money into new plants and new businesses has not happened yet.

One of the marked features of the Modi regime’s economic policy has been its relentless push for manufacturing. What kicked off as ‘Make in India’ back in 2015 hit take-off velocity with the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ package later and the production-linked incentives (PLI). But, with the exception of an Apple here or a Micron there, a rush by global biggies to set up plants in India is yet to be seen.

“India considers itself as a big market, but we should consider that as a per capita market and we are small,” said Rahul Ahluwalia, co-founder of the Delhi-based think tank Foundation for Economic Development. “For a global company, we may be just 5 or 6 per cent of their total market. That is not enough for them to set up their manufacturing base here, unless we transform our local ecosystem and make it competitive with what they get in Vietnam or China. Raising protective tariff walls and inviting manufacturers is not going to do it.”

Then there are concerns about the growing inequality. While the growth has been good, it has been top-heavy. Kaushik Basu, former chief economist at World Bank, said India’s recovery after the Covid pandemic was a classic case of K-shaped recovery. Sitharaman might be hoping to fix this with skilling and employment incentives, but she completely ignored it in the opportunity provided by the income tax restructuring.

ACE UP HER SLEEVE

Sitharaman’s seventh budget remains true to the long-term vision of the Modi government that local manufacturing is the way forward. While it was a blinkers-on race to notch up numbers till now, this budget has tweaked it a bit by embracing education, job generation and social sector guarantees.

To her credit, Sitharaman has stuck to her vision of spending big and dreaming bigger, even while pulling off a miracle of sorts by targeting a sharp reduction in fiscal deficit, from 5.5 per cent to 4.9 per cent. “Keeping the fiscal deficit target at a better-than-expected 4.9 per cent of the GDP while retaining the focus on capital expenditure is no mean achievement,” said Sanjiv Puri, president of the Confederation of Indian Industry and chairman of ITC Limited.

The robust tax collections and the record dividend from the Reserve Bank of India this year sure helped, while the additional revenue Sitharaman intends to mop up does stand her in good stead.

fixing-the-job-crisis-is-a-gigantic-task-and-the-government-must-apply-itself-diligently-to-it

Sat Jul 27 13:12:36 IST 2024

A FEW WEEKS AGO, the Reserve Bank of India published an article on the economy. The authors claimed that eight crore jobs had been created in India in the last few years and “there is no jobs crisis in India”.

It was an astounding statement, especially from a cautious, conservative and politically neutral institution like the RBI. The claim was lapped up by the BJP’s leaders, including the prime minister who mentioned it in one of his speeches.

The finance minister was silent. The chief economic adviser looked away. The NITI Aayog, that often sprang up to make bizarre claims, did not make any comment. No one asked the RBI questions such as how the claim was made, what kind of jobs were created, where were the jobs and who were the beneficiaries.

The RBI’s claim and the government’s tacit endorsement ran contrary to the evidence around us:

◆ The Uttar Pradesh Police department conducted an examination to recruit 60,244 positions in the state police, mostly constables. More than 48,00,000 persons, including 16,00,000 women, wrote the examination. (The examination was cancelled after a few days).

◆ Air India wanted to fill 2,216 vacancies of ‘handyman’, a job that involved diverse repair and maintenance duties. Some 25,000 persons thronged the Mumbai airport for a walk-in interview, and police had to step in to maintain order.

◆ A private company in Gujarat sought to fill five positions; more than 1,000 persons applied.

◆ Madhya Pradesh advertised 15 low-skilled government jobs. It attracted 11,000 applicants, many of whom were postgraduates, engineers, MBAs and even one who was preparing to write an examination for the post of a judge.

The jobs crisis is best illustrated by the examinations conducted every year by the Staff Selection Commissions at the Centre and in many states. In Uttar Pradesh, an examination conducted for 7,500 posts (mostly clerical), received 24,74,030 applications.

Unemployment is, and has been for many years, a serious problem in India. Past governments acknowledged the problem. The BJP was different: it flatly denied there was a problem. On the eve of the 2014 elections to the Lok Sabha, Mr Narendra Modi promised to create two crore jobs a year. The promise, among other promises, was described as an ‘election jumla’ by no less a person than the home minister. At one point, the Prime Minister said that “frying pakoras is also a job”.

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy measures the unemployment situation very closely. Its latest report has estimated the all-India unemployment rate as 9.2 per cent. The Periodic Labour Force Survey conducted by the central government has thrown up some uncomfortable truths. Most Indians do not hold regular jobs; they are self-employed (57.3 per cent). Only 20.9 persons of the employed earn a regular salary. Among graduates who have attained the age of 40, the unemployment rate is 10 per cent. The least educated are the least unemployed. The only zero-unemployment group is illiterate rural women.

The cry for jobs is heard in every town and village of India. The cry was finally heard by the finance minister after her government received a hard slap from the electorate in the 2024 elections. In her budget speech on July 23, she announced three schemes to promote employment under the description ‘Employment-linked Incentive’ (ELI) scheme. In essence, the schemes incentivise employers to hire more persons, especially first-time employees. She claimed that the schemes will benefit 290 lakh persons, but there was no data to support the claim.

The ELI scheme was a copy and paste of the promise in the Congress manifesto that had offered to amend the Apprenticeship Act and provide a one-year apprenticeship to every diploma or degree holder with an annual allowance of Rs1 lakh and with the expectation of a job at the end of the period of apprenticeship. I am naturally happy that the finance minister had an opportunity to read the Congress manifesto at least after the elections and take a leaf out of the document.

I emphasise that the jobs crisis is real. The crisis is compounded by several factors. An average child spends only seven-eight years in school. Nearly one-half of the students cannot read or write a simple text in any language and they cannot do multiplication or division. They learn no skills. Jobs have to be found for such children as well as for skilled persons, graduates, postgraduates, technically qualified persons, engineers, doctors, scientists and so on. It is a gigantic task, and the government must apply itself diligently to the task. It must first shed its posture of denial. Going by the finance minister’s speech, the government seems to have, at last, acknowledged the problem.

―Chidambaram is a Rajya Sabha member and former Union finance minister.

budget-2024-nirmala-sitharaman-expectations

Sun Jul 21 09:22:39 IST 2024

It is not in the nature of Droupadi Murmu to give surprises. The president follows the decorum and sticks to the protocol. But while reading out the government’s vision document in Parliament, her first address after Modi 3.0 took charge, she dropped a bombshell.

“This budget will be an effective document of the government’s far-reaching policies and futuristic vision. Along with big economic and social decisions, many historic steps will also be seen in (it),” she said, referring to the upcoming full budget to be tabled in Parliament on July 23. She also pointed out how India was the fastest growing major economy, averaging 8 per cent in the past four years.

If Prime Minister Narendra Modi wanted a murmur of anticipation to precede Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s first budget of the new government, that speech achieved its goal.

India had embarked on radically pro-market reforms after the Covid-19 pandemic. Some of these measures even topped up the economy outside of the ambit of the annual budget exercise, like the slashing of corporate tax for new businesses back in 2018, the Atmanirbhar Bharat and the Vocal for Local rejig or even the production-linked incentives (PLI) announced for various sectors from time to time. The budget itself had stuck to the script, coming out year after year on February 1 with consistent announcements of major capital expenditure plans―all in an effort to boost the economy by wooing in precious investment. It did not change even on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections.

All that is water under the bridge, or votes won or lost across the hinterland. With the Lok Sabha election outcome turning out to be what it was, there is speculation galore about any route deviation in Nirmala Sitharaman’s spending principles. Murmu’s speech just turned it into a deafening murmur.

So how different will the budget for 2024-25 be? The hearts of India Inc would brook no tinkering in the government-industry tango that had seen big splurging on infra projects. But the heart of Bharat, as the poll results indicate, sways to a different beat. What tune will eventually get played?

SHOW ME THE MONEY

Upasana, an interior decorator in Gurugram, loves Kapil Sharma shows and Bollywood movies but switches to news on the budget day for one thing―to see if there is a cut in income tax.

Income tax cuts are a sure-fire formula to ignite the middle-classes. But why would a government that did not bother to dole out tax reliefs before election do it after the polls? “I think the election results have been such that the government is under pressure to do something to cater to the electorate in some way or the other,” said Sethurathnam Ravi, tax specialist and former chairman of the Bombay Stock Exchange. “In any case there are some crucial assembly elections coming up in a few months.”

Shashank Pal, chief business officer at Prabhudas Lilladher Wealth Management, said there were three aspects to it. “The expectation is that basic tax exemption limits would be hiked,” he said. “Second is in terms of the benefits against insurance and for senior citizens. That would go up. And third is in terms of the tax slabs. That is expected to increase.”

An array of taxes are under the scanner, if the buzz is to be believed. Corporate tax, which was slashed in the first Modi regime’s push to get companies to set up shop in India, could see a rejig. New-economy companies are pinning their hopes on getting relief from Angel Tax, which is applicable to investment received by startups and the like.

LET THERE BE JOBS

Jobless growth has been the inherent irony of India’s economic growth in recent years. Before the Lok Sabha elections, both industry doyens and economists said in one voice that the main focus of the new government should be creating jobs. “There is a need to create a lot of quality jobs,” said Sanjiv Puri, president of CII and chairman of ITC, a week after the new government took over. His suggestion? An investment-led growth. “Investment creating jobs and consumption creating a virtuous cycle,” he said. There are, however, others who beg to differ, pointing out how years of big capital investment has not led to the expected boom in jobs.

Going back to the drawing board, what will South Block’s number crunchers come up with?

“We can expect a continuation of the big infra push,” said Ravi. But it will be with a twist. “With more on the rural areas than urban ones,” he said.

If spending can catalyse economic growth, spending in rural areas will be tantamount to killing two birds with one stone. Of course, with a specific focus on Bihar and Andhra Pradesh, home of the two parties propping up the coalition government at the Centre.

Focusing on small industries could help in this. “MSMEs suffered during Covid. Many got shut because they could not cope with the aftermath of the pandemic. Their rehabilitation has taken time,” said Ravi. There are expectations of a push through the budget to revitalise this crucial sector. “Initiatives geared towards stimulating job creation, particularly through robust support for small businesses, will foster a thriving economy,” said Jitendra Patil, a Pune-based startup entrepreneur.

NATURE’S BOUNTY

Despite the big infra push, the overarching shade in this budget is likely to be green. “There have been significant provision in the last budget on green energy, especially in terms of wind, solar and other non-fuel based energy sources. But in terms of trying to spread out, incentivising solarisation, transmission by the discoms and creating infrastructure, there is an expectation that there would be further concessions, liberties, discounts, rebates and cheaper availability of credits,” said Pal. With a National Green Hydrogen Mission already up and running, he feels that green hydrogen, too, is “expected to get some boost for creating infrastructure.”

And there are promises to fulfil. “You have to give incentives because India has made huge commitments to net zero and clean energy,” said Ravi. “Institutionalising net zero carbon goals through the budget could help―the cost of funding will come down as there are many global funds who finance [such projects] at lower costs. While the last budget also mentioned sustainability, this budget’s announcements will be more granular and progressive.”

THE GIST OF IT ALL

Decisions on the Goods and Services Tax are taken by the GST Council. But it is likely to make a transformative appearance in this year’s budget speech, even if the nitty gritty will be left to the GST Council. “Rationalisation of GST is critical,” says Rahul Ahluwalia, co-founder of the Foundation for Economic Development. “If you include luxury tax and cess, we have six or seven slabs of GST. Experts have consistently said that we should have only one slab. If there are political compulsions, have two, or at most three.”

Ahluwalia also tries to make a strong case against high tax rates. “The government has been trying to use tariffs strategically to cut down imports,” he said. “By and large, that has not worked. India has traditionally tried to use tariffs as a way to protect our industry. But it is actually the liberalisation of tariffs in 1991 that really promoted Indian industry beyond anything that had come before that.”

His argument is part of the big picture view that only exports will lead to growth, and that is where he has a problem with protecting domestic businesses with high import duties. “A tax on imports is a tax on exports, which is something we don’t often realise,” he said. “We think of ourselves as a big market, but per capita-wise, we are a small player. Unless we become export competitive, we cannot grow fast. We forget that from 1991, all of our growth has been export-led, though it started flattening somewhere around 2011. This government has tried, but our export has not picked up. Only fast growth in exports can lead to economic growth.”

OUT OF THE BOX

The use of phrases like ‘futuristic’ and ‘historic’ in the government’s vision document has triggered many theories about a grand announcement―a universal health care scheme, rejigging of the National Pension Scheme, or even a universal income scheme.

Pal would not rule out something as game-changing as an unemployment wage for those who are qualified, and a universal pension for those above 70 or 75, where “the government takes care of basic financial requirements”.

Such a move could take the wind out of the freebies the opposition parties have been promising, but has not the prime minister always been against revdis (handouts)?

“Modi has always expressed his displeasure, but a sobering election result would be enough to change your mind to do something dramatic like this,” said Pal. “If they want another term, they need something earth-moving.”

mapmyindia-ceo-and-executive-director-rohan-verma-interview

Sun Jul 21 09:22:14 IST 2024

Interview/ Rohan Verma, CEO & executive director, MapmyIndia

Q. What are the crucial areas the Union budget should focus on?

The government should continue the good work of generating economic demand and economic growth that is inclusive and covers all strata of society. Fundamentally, a strong and balanced growth is good for business, the people and the nation. So, everything the government can do around that would be relevant.

Q. What are the new-age legal, tax and facilitatory needs of startups and digital firms that the government should address through the budget?

Businesses require predictability and consistency. Shocks to the system or too many regulatory requirements over too much paperwork create problems for companies. A smoother way of doing business, fewer things that are onerous, that are asked of startups, those are the things that would be helpful.

Q. How can the government find a balance between capital expenditure on infra and social spending needs?

The government has been doing a good job providing basic needs in terms of welfare schemes to the people at the bottom of the pyramid, be it through the Ujjwala scheme, food rations and housing. And infra also, with all the roads and highways and ports, the government has been doing it strongly.

Ultimately there is a unifying theme, leaning to Atmanirbhar Bharat. Growing the capabilities or demand for indigenous firms and indigenous technologies, products and services will ensure supply and hence jobs and wealth creation, value creation within the country, and a certain self-reliance when it comes to various technologies. I think if the budget leans to that, we will be self-sufficient and self-sustaining in a strong way.

india-s-first-fully-fdi-hospital-sakra-bengaluru

Sat Jul 13 17:54:09 IST 2024

On May 11, 2022, Kavitha Shanmugam received a jolt of a phone call. “Your husband is alive and breathing,” said the caller from a North Carolina hospital. It was about her husband Pravinrajraj Radha’s bicycle accident. What made it worse was that she was in India and he in the US.

Kavitha and Pravinraj, who had been in the US for 12 years, got married in 2018. Kavitha was in India to meet her father, who had met with an accident in 2020. She could visit him only in April 2022 because of the pandemic. On the day of Pravinraj’s accident, Kavitha and he had been on call with each other till 3am, India time. Pravinraj had told her that he would be out cycling once he was done with a meeting. And then, close to noon, she got that fateful call from the hospital.

How bad can a bicycle accident be, Kavitha had initially wondered. But a call with the doctors revealed that Pravinraj had suffered a major traumatic brain injury and was in coma, with a score of three―the lowest score that came with an extremely high mortality rate. Kavitha was told that his chances of survival were slim. Pravinraj was in coma for two months; he did not respond to any commands, except for a slight movement in his fingers. He was advised rehabilitation treatment, but that would be a long and slow process. Since Pravinraj was the sole earning member of the family, it became financially unviable to let him remain in care in the US for long. So, he was flown down to India in a critical condition―he could not talk, was fed through a tube and had a tracheostomy done to help him breathe. When he woke up from the coma, he did not recognise Kavitha and would often ask her to call his wife; Kavitha would then leave the room, call him on his phone and talk to him.

That was July 2022. By December though, Pravinraj was on his way to recovery. Within a month of arriving in India, he was able to get up from the bed with some help, take small steps, eat and speak a few words, thanks to extensive neurorehabilitation with physiotherapy, occupational therapy and neuropsychology. Today, Pravinraj can button his own shirt, goes to the gym daily and is looking at resuming work as a software expert in Bengaluru.

“Even though I know he will never be the same person again, it is incredible to see how far he has come,” says Kavitha. “Had it not been for the rehabilitation he underwent at Sakra [World Hospital], I don't think he would be where he is today.”

Venkata, whose 17-year-old son slipped into a coma following a car accident this March, shares the same sentiment. His son had severe internal and external brain injury and partial paralysis of right limbs. The stiffness in his muscles was to such an extent that one could not get him to open his palms even after applying pressure. Today, his son can move his limbs with ease. He underwent movement rehabilitation with the help of a robot and was also put on the hyperbaric oxygen therapy, which treats wounds and other medical conditions by supplying the patient with 100 per cent oxygen inside a special chamber and speeds up the healing process.

“I never thought my son could recover from that fatal accident,” said Venkata. “A brilliant student, he was about to appear for his IIT-JEE when our dreams shattered in those few minutes. I think what made the difference is that my son got passionate and involved care here, which helped him sail through. Every single person at the hospital, from doctors to the attendants, wanted him to recover.”

Both these moving stories of radical turnaround had a common ground―the Sakra Institute of Rehabilitation Sciences, said to be the largest rehab centre in Asia, at the Sakra World Hospital in Bengaluru. The hospital, in its 10th year, is India's first ever 100 per cent FDI (foreign direct investment) hospital, owned and managed by a joint venture between Toyota Tsusho and Secom Hospitals, Japan. The 15,000sqft rehabilitation centre on the third floor of the hospital speaks volumes about the importance given to the rehabilitation process, which is in line with its ideology that every patient should be able to carry out basic functions independently before leaving the hospital. This is also the first rehabilitation centre with a Global Quality Accreditation.

“The Japanese accord a high priority and importance to rehabilitation and that shows in the way they have planned Sakra World Hospital,” says Dr B.M. Maheswarappa, who heads the department. “Secom has a setup for acute rehabilitation in all of its 20 secondary and tertiary care hospitals it runs in Japan. The Japanese give significant importance to a patient's quality of life and so they have dedicated an entire floor towards an advanced multispecialty rehabilitation institute. Here, patients, especially those with traumatic brain injuries and stroke go back home after being trained in dressing, combing, cooking, bathing, toileting and self care. Some patients even learn to independently make tea and coffee before leaving the premises.”

The Japanese way of life and importance to health care is reflected in the smaller aspects at the 307-bedded multispecialty hospital. As you enter, the support staff bows and greets you with a smile. There are no long queues near elevators―one reason could be the short flight of stairs inside the quadrangle. And, the canteen on the ground floor is easily accessible.

“One of the crucial aspects I want to highlight is the courteousness and civility one experiences here,” says Kavitha. “Given the anger issues that my husband was grappling with, everyone, including the person who came to change his diapers, displayed tremendous patience and composure. I think that is really important because if the support staff is grumpy and irritable, then it becomes difficult.”

THE WEEK visited the hospital on a weekday afternoon.

It was crowded but not chaotic. The spacious lobby was free of people huddled together in groups. The Japanese imprint is visible in the ‘May I help you?’ desk and the set of Hina dolls, dressed in imperial clothing of the 9th century, displayed near the entrance. Also, the staff here uses the Japanese honorific ‘-san’ at the end of either the first or last name. And, nobody here will be caught saying, “Give us two minutes.” That, in particular, is a pet peeve of the leadership that runs the hospital. And that is so because it values punctuality.

When THE WEEK arrived 10 minutes early for an interview with managing director Yuichi Nagano and deputy managing director Naoya Matsumi, they walked in within two minutes and were surprised that we were there before time. The duo also did not carry their phones with them during the interview, giving us their full attention. The two of them have been in India for a decade now and having traversed the country, they say, they have learnt a few things “that are so Indian” including “time management, procrastination and the deep urge to give explanations for everything.” The duo ensured that “adherence to time” became a part of the hospital culture.

“Initially, we heard ‘two minutes’ all the time. We decided this culture had to go,” says Matsumi. “There had to be respect for time and discipline. This IST should be accorded some respect, not ridiculed for being Indian Standard Time, which is people will always be late. That is a value we are trying to bring from Japan. Also Indians are very good with giving explanations. But this is a Japanese hospital and so no excuses.”

The duo also noticed some issues with payments. “When we started this hospital, I noticed that somehow payments to the vendors were being delayed,” says Matsumi. “Pharmacy company bills were lying here for days on end and were cleared only upon our reminding. Somebody told me this was the Indian way, but we didn't like it. This is not how an organisation builds trust with its vendors. So behaviours that are otherwise normal and natural in Japan aren't so in India, so our effort is to bring in the best practices in day-to-day functioning.”

Sakra was initially a joint venture between the two Japanese companies and the Kirloskar Group. The Japanese management took over after a fallout with the Kirloskars in 2016. Secom now owns 60 per cent and Toyota Tsusho the rest. “Hospital business is very tough to manage and this hospital was our first hospital in India, outside of Japan,” says Nagano. “In 2019, just before Covid-19, we began making profits for the very first time. But then in 2020, lockdowns happened and the number of patients decreased drastically. So we became negative again. But after 2021, we came back to positive again and now I can say that we are very much a profitable hospital.” So much so, he adds, that their investors have decided to fund a second hospital with 450 beds, which will come up by January 2027 in the city. At the new hospital, there are plans to set up a radiation facility for cancer patients, which the current hospital lacks. “The capacity of [the present] hospital is almost reaching a limitation in terms of occupancy and the number of surgeries,” says Nagano. “So we need to expand our functions so as to increase the number of patients.”

Patients THE WEEK spoke to cited several reasons for choosing Sakra. “When I compared the cost of the hyperbaric oxygen therapy in certain other hospitals in Bengaluru, it was much less at Sakra,” says Venkata. “The cleanliness and hygiene and civility among the staff played a huge role, too.”

The quick turnaround time in the billing and discharge was what worked for Sandhya Sri Koka, who was admitted thrice at the hospital for her asthmatic attacks; her husband, too, was admitted twice. “It did not take more than one to two hours for us to get through to the admissions or the discharge process,” she says. “There are no delays in either the processes nor in seeking an appointment with the doctor or summoning one while one is in the hospital.”

This, explains Matsumi, “captures the Shokunin culture” which is deeply ingrained in the Japanese society as its commitment to mastery, craftsmanship and profound connection to one’s work. “We came down from five hours initially to two hours of post-discharge paperwork,” he says. “Also, the billing process at Sakra hospital has been streamlined to less than 10 minutes.”

Nagano attributes the Sakra culture to the Japanese philosophy of Kaizen―continuous improvement in everyday operations. “It took us more than five years to establish it,” he says. At present, all employees at Sakra are Indian, except for Nagano and Matsumi.

Dr Raji Verghese, associate consultant in the paediatric department, appreciates the organised way of working at the hospital. “We have all the sub-specialties in the area of paediatrics, including rheumatology, endocrinology, gastroenterology, mother and child section, and we have even operated on pre-term babies,” says Verghese, who has been with Sakra for nine years now. “But we lack a paediatric cardiology section.”

Speaking about the initial hiccups in running the hospital, Nagano says, “When we were opening this hospital, Indian partners at that time didn't think twice; they were impatient and pushy. ‘Believe in me and my word, the hospital will be successful,’ they said. But Japan doesn't work like that. We see the market size, population, payment capability, income level segments and specialties―we analyse everything. But Indians think that we are delaying the process and they say that by the time you finish all this analysis, the market will already have moved on to the competitor. I think we are more cautious than Indians.”

This difference in style of working and approaching things could be why the Kirloskars left the venture. In 2015, Geetanjali Kirloskar, who was the hospital’s chairperson then, had written in an article about how the Japanese build business by building relationships. “The prerequisite is trust, which takes time. Thereafter they will stand by you regardless,” she wrote. “They reach meetings early, understanding traffic conditions and other possible delays and account for them. If we reach late, they will receive you politely, smile and bow. The Japanese arrive at consensus through closed-door interactions within their team. This synthesis of differing views makes Japanese style the antithesis of the agile management style of Silicon Valley, to which we subscribe.” She also added that while the Japanese were always courteous, never contradicting each other or their boss in public, Indians tend to be argumentative and aggressive.

Also, health care in Japan is mainly covered by government insurance. Patients there see hospitals as offering public service. Hence, their expectations remain low. However, in India, said Nagano, patients look for value for money in everything. “At times, and I am very sorry to say this, Indian patients are very demanding,” he says. “It is easier to please a Japanese patient more than it is to impress an Indian patient.”

Both Nagano and Matsumi talk about the “perennial problem related to the attrition of nurses in the hospital”. “It is a headache. It is more than 60 per cent,” says Matsumi. “It is very difficult for us to maintain the quality of nurses in India and one reason for it is that here doctors are placed on a pedestal but the social status of nurses is abysmally low in comparison with Japan. We place high value on the education of nurses and accordingly decided to take Indian nurses to Japan to raise their social status. There is a training and simulation centre for nurses at Sakra now.”

But why would the Japanese establish a state-of-the-art hospital in India? “India is a potential market. In the area of health care, we see more liberty and opportunities here,” says Matsumi. “In Japan, we have strict rules put in place by the government―there are limitations in terms of pricing…. It is an overall tightly regulated country. But in India, there is free competition. If we are doing good work and offering good services, patients will come.”

budget-2024-expectations-finance-minister-nirmala-sitharaman

Sat Jul 13 15:07:31 IST 2024

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has many firsts to her credit―from being India’s first full-fledged woman finance minister to presenting the first paperless budget to giving the longest budget speech. She will have another first when she presents her seventh budget in a row on July 23―the first non-Congress finance minister to do so.

Sitharaman is expected to make more than just statistical history―a lot will be riding on her budget speech. And there have already been some hints. “This budget will be an effective document of the government’s extensive policies and futuristic vision,” said President Droupadi Murmu in her joint address to Parliament a month ago. “Alongside major economic and social decisions, many historic steps will be highlighted.”

The new Modi government had signalled continuity by retaining most of the cabinet even though the Prime Minister had to rely on allies to secure a majority after the Lok Sabha polls. The budget, however, will have to address political considerations while maintaining fiscal consolidation and pushing growth. The massive mandates Modi received in 2014 and 2019 had given the government a lot of elbow room to push reforms. With an energised opposition trying to corner the government on every possible occasion, the government may be inclined to take a more populist route.

Two key allies―the Telugu Desam Party and the Janata Dal (United)―run governments in Andhra Pradesh and Bihar, respectively, and they have been vocal in demanding special packages for their states. They seek financial assurances to let Modi pursue his political agenda. How far the Modi government goes to address their needs would set the contours of the remaining term of the government. The budget, which is the first major policy document of the government, is expected to rely on the BJP’s manifesto for fulfilling many of its promises on social welfare, cultural and reforms fronts.

The Rs2.11 lakh crore dividend given by the Reserve Bank offers the government sufficient financial cushion. It would come in handy in addressing the needs of the alliance parties and extending carrots to the sections of the population that ditched the party in the Lok Sabha elections.

A lot has changed since the interim budget in February, when the government, confident of getting a third term, did not announce any pre-poll sop. The marginalised, poor, rural population, women and middle class, affected by the spiralling inflation, voted for a stronger opposition.

The salaried class has not been given any significant relief of late. Though less than 2 per cent of the total population, they account for a large chunk of direct tax collection and play a crucial role in shaping public opinion. Sitharaman may give some relief to them by revising the tax limits so that they get more money in their pockets, which in turn would boost consumption and savings. Though the economy grew 8.2 per cent in the last fiscal, consumption has not been keeping pace with it.

“When the finance minister presents the budget, we are sure she will consider every aspect of tax structure, asset class, where all taxpayers can be benefited,” said a party leader.

Several review meetings were carried out by the BJP leadership to analyse how the rural population and women were swayed by the Congress’s promise to give Rs1 lakh every year. The government may opt for enhancing the workdays under the MNREGA scheme. “Women have emerged as the main swing voters who can change the elections,” said a BJP leader, indicating that the budget would have enough for them. “The government has given 33 per cent reservation in seats, last year, indicating its intent. But the population needs something tangible in their hands.”

Job creation remains a potent emotional factor among the people, not just the youth, as the recent election campaign and the results have shown. Creating job opportunities will come through continued focus on building infrastructure and enhancing the manufacturing and the services sectors.

In the past, the BJP had cited electoral mandates behind its ideological commitments, be it abrogation of Article 370 or implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act. The humbling mandate in the recent polls seems to have forced the party to recalibrate. Would it provide immediate relief through sops rather than schemes that have long gestation periods? A certain salutary message to those impacted by policy changes and unexpected events in the recent years is a political need it cannot ignore.

The BJP even set up a six-member panel to collate feedback and sent it to the finance minister. “In the last few budgets, it was laying of the tracks. Most of the structural reforms are already there. Now, we will move ahead. More reforms will be there. It will be a growth oriented budget for sure,” said party spokesperson Syed Zafar Islam, also a member of the panel. “We are already contributing 18 per cent to the world GDP. The kind of momentum we have in economic activities, we expect the government to capitalise on the momentum for more job creation and higher private investments.”

Modi could deliver the electoral message using his appeal with consistent nurturing of the beneficiaries. However, when beneficiaries get used to a particular facility or do not get it, resentment grows. That is when attractive sops influence the voting patterns.

Since the Lok Sabha poll results, the BJP governments in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Rajasthan have presented state budgets where sops have been announced for the poor, women and farmers through stipends, increased spending, free bus rides and reduction in oil prices. This was to address the immediate concerns of the population.

“Budget is an exercise where inputs are taken from every section of the society,” said Islam. “It has nothing to do with the elections. We are the single largest party with 240 seats. We make policies after feedback from the diverse groups.”

As assembly elections in Haryana and Maharashtra are round the corner, the government may focus on target groups like the farmers, women, youth and the OBCs. There have been indications that earnings of farmers would be increased by strengthening the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi (Rs6,000 a year), expanding infrastructure for farmers for storage of grains and crops, extending credit and promoting crop diversification to tide over the increased political pressure for legalising minimum support price for crops.

Schemes like MNREGA and Agniveer also have a strong salience in rural India. As the opposition has turned the lacunae in the Agniveer scheme into a political weapon, the Modi government has major work at hand. Former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who has been given agriculture and rural development ministries, would need something more in the budget to navigate the tough terrain ahead.

While Nitin Gadkari may continue to raise capex for building highways, he would also need budgetary support to keep up the pace. The budget is expected to increase allocation for the health sector to increase the number of hospitals, set up more medical colleges, and even increasing the scope of health insurance from the current Rs5 lakh. The BJP had promised the benefits of health insurance to the senior citizens. Sitharaman may announce the new scheme in the budget.

The BJP had also promised more trains, be it Vande Bharat or even bullet trains. Given the political significance of the ministry, as it serves a large section of the population, the allocation is set to increase.

The budget session is likely to be stormy with the opposition trying to put the government on the mat on issues like question paper leaks, inflation and rural distress. The budget, however, will provide an opportunity for the government to grab some positive headlines by giving people something to cheer about.

future-of-energy

Sat Jul 13 14:59:45 IST 2024

LET US THINK of a world without power―imagine the electricity going off when you are in the middle of your work―now, your laptop, and your mobile phone are both minutes from dying, and all you can do is wait for the power to come back on. Without electricity, you cannot use any of your trusted appliances―be it your television, microwave or air conditioner―making the world appear like a truly dark place. Now consider driving to a faraway destination, and noticing the empty fuel signal on your car’s dashboard―we cannot reach our destination, or accomplish the simplest everyday tasks without energy.

Decoding the energy paradigm

Energy is an essential part of our daily lives, shaping our necessities and conveniences. While households once relied mainly on electric lights, gas stoves, and televisions, modern living now demands a variety of electrical appliances such as refrigerators, air conditioners, induction stoves, and microwaves. This shift highlights a broader lifestyle change and a significant increase in energy demand. Energy’s role extends far beyond households, fuelling transportation―from cars and two-wheelers to cargo engines, trains, and airplanes―and driving industrial growth across sectors like healthcare, FMCG, textiles, and IT. It supports communication networks, including telecommunication, broadcasting, internet services, and data transmission.

Considering the energy opportunities roadmap, the oil and gas value chain comprises upstream exploration and extraction, midstream processing and transportation, and downstream refining and distribution. Similarly, the power value chain involves generation from various sources, transmission, and final distribution to consumers. With the rise of renewable energy, the solar and wind value chains involve manufacturing, equipment provision, and infrastructure development, even as energy ancillary companies enhance this ecosystem by offering essential services such as EPC, maintenance, power storage solutions, and smart metering. Accordingly, the energy opportunities theme encompasses a variety of possible investment options across these avenues.

Upcoming demand for energy

India’s energy future is intricately linked to its growth trajectory―over the past two decades, India’s primary energy consumption has more than doubled, making it the fourth-largest energy consumer globally. However, India’s per capita energy consumption remains one-third of the global average, significantly lower than countries like China and Korea and as the country remains poised to become the world’s third-largest economy, its consumption is expected to rise substantially. In this scenario, power demand is anticipated to grow strongly, with shortages during non-solar hours, necessitating government focus to bridge the deficit.

India’s shift from agriculture to manufacturing, similar to China’s earlier transition, is expected to create massive power demand. Going forward, the increasing penetration of electricity and rising per capita income will drive higher energy consumption even as emerging segments like AI and data centres remain set to further escalate energy demand, potentially using more power than entire countries by 2028.

The best way forward

Even as you prepare to shell out more for the energy you consume, you can balance out the equation by investing in the energy opportunities theme, either directly or through mutual funds. Popular investment avenues include power ancillaries, the oil value chain, consisting of integrated refining and marketing companies, downstream petrochemicals, base oil processors, etc, and green energy, which comprises of companies undergoing energy transitions, and renewable energy value chains. You can also consider investments in the gas value chain, which consists of gas transmission, LNG terminal and city gas distribution, and the power value chain, which includes coal producing companies, and aspects such as power generation, power transmission, and power trading.

If you want to invest in the energy theme via the mutual fund route, ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund currently has a New Fund Offer (NFO) focused on the energy sector, open from July 2, 2024, to July 16, 2024. The scheme’s investment universe includes companies involved in green energy, oil and gas sector, power and related sectors, offering a diversified approach to tapping into these energy opportunities.

Whichever route you may opt for, there is no questioning the fact that energy opportunities is the theme for the future―making this your moment to capitalise on the sector.

The writer is founder and director, Shubhgain Finserv Pvt Ltd.

a-global-leadership-opportunity-in-the-ai-age-beckons

Sat Jul 13 14:56:52 IST 2024

INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTIONS reshape global power dynamics. The first saw the rise of the UK and Europe with coal and steam power. The second, driven by electricity and mass production, elevated the US and Japan. China emerged during the third revolution with electronics and IT, while the US surged ahead. The fourth revolution we are in―the digital age, driven by the internet, AI, IoT, blockchain and Gen AI―is shifting global power dynamics yet again. While the US and China have taken the lead, India is swiftly gaining ground in this global race.

The essential nature of data and AI is democratisation, making it accessible to everyone, regardless of background or expertise. India stands at a unique advantage.

DEMOCRATISATION OF INFORMATION, KNOWLEDGE AND TECHNOLOGY

India’s phenomenal growth is evident in its 820 million active internet users and a 78 per cent smartphone penetration rate. It accounts for nearly half of the world's digital transactions. Social media platforms are widely used for content consumption and creation. E-learning platforms have democratised access to education, and government efforts like Digital India have further democratised technology access nationwide.

STRENGTH OF DIGITAL NATIVES

More than half of India's population is below the age of 30. These digital natives are adept at adopting and adapting to new digital technologies. They consume and create extensive digital content. And their growing affinity towards digital activities like e-commerce, social media influencing and digital education makes them a valuable resource.

DIGITAL PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE AND GLOBAL IT SERVICES HUB

India's Aadhaar stack stands out as a highly effective digital infrastructure, leveraging extensive data repositories to facilitate various services like UPI, digital identity verification, and e-governance. Additionally, India has become a global IT services hub with over 50 per cent of the global IT services workforce in 2022, up from 35 per cent in 2013.

ONE OF THE BIGGEST DATA GENERATORS OF THE WORLD

India has a natural edge as the data-first world unfolds around us, driven by a remarkable 1,00,000-1,50,000 times growth in data, the bedrock fuelling the digital and now the AI revolution. India significantly contributes as one of the leading data generators globally, accounting for a fifth of all the world’s data, owing to its large population and rapid digitalisation. In my new book Mastering the Data Paradox I have outlined a practical approach on how nations can build competitive differentiation anchored on data.

UNLEASHING THE WAVE OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP

China's global leadership is bolstered by substantial government sponsorships, while the US benefits from the presence of major tech giants, giving it a competitive edge. China invests heavily in programmes, policies and incentives to encourage innovation and technology development through entrepreneurship. Funding and subsidies like the National High-Tech Enterprise (NHTE) programme, policies like Made in China 2025 and billions of dollars invested every year in Next Generation AI Development Plan are a few notable examples.

In the US, big tech giants like Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Nvidia enable pace and scale of digital and AI innovation. They not only provide substantial funding for research and development but also play a crucial role in shaping the technology landscape and enabling an entire ecosystem, as seen in Silicon Valley.

However, the models of China and the US may not be the natural paths for India to leapfrog in data and AI leadership. For India, the way to capture the immense opportunities of the digital and AI age is to leverage its natural advantages and unleash a tsunami of entrepreneurship, creating millions of young entrepreneurs.

In the highly dynamic and ever-changing technology landscape, startups can bring speed and agility, enabling India to leapfrog and quickly benefit from the rapidly changing business and technology dynamics. It would pave the way for India to become a global innovation hub, tackling global challenges and creating unique market and industry disruptions.

India becoming an entrepreneurial powerhouse is not a pipe dream. As we saw above we have some unique advantages that we can build on, it is truly our time! India's digital infrastructure provides a strong foundation for startups to leverage and build upon, enabling startups to scale efficiently and deliver value-added services. The vast and varied population offers a diverse market for testing products and services. India's pyramid of digital natives who are tech-savvy and eager to embrace new technologies, make them ideal contributors to India's entrepreneurial ecosystem. India can capitalise on its position as one of the biggest data generators globally, allowing startups to harness data and AI to innovate at scale.

However, achieving this is not easy. It requires a significant shift in both mindset and approach.

TRANSITIONING FROM IT SERVICES TO PRODUCT COMPANIES

India has traditionally excelled in providing IT services. But as globally companies are shifting from building to consumption, India must focus on building and scaling product-based companies that provide end-to-end solutions to customer problems through innovative solutions. This requires a strong focus on innovation, continuous R&D and problem solving.

BREAKING THE EXISTING MINDSET OF AN ‘ORDER-TAKER’

We have long been the order-takers and, if we are self-critical, perhaps have ended up being 'coding coolies'. While it has helped establish ourselves as a global services hub, it has also meant that we have ended up playing only a supporting cast role, with the west enjoying greater control and benefits in the technology value chain. To climb up the digital value chain we need to shift towards independent and proactive thinking, be more aggressive as risk-takers and experiment to unleash creativity.

BUILDING CRITICAL THINKING AND PROBLEM SOLVING

As the business world becomes increasingly dynamic, developing an entrepreneurial mindset is critical to succeed in the data and AI age. Questioning the norm, asking 'why' is becoming increasingly critical. Critical thinking empowers individuals to question assumptions, analyse problems deeply, and explore alternative approaches to come up with new and innovative solutions. Shifting from the traditional technical-centric approach to education and workforce, to prioritise critical thinking and problem solving, is critical for success in the long term.

India’s independence led to political freedom, yet millions of Indians were left economically and socially disadvantaged. The digital era provides a remarkable opportunity for India to establish itself as a global leader. While India's journey into the data-first world and the AI age holds immense promise, there are significant hurdles that need to be addressed.

Seth is former chief operating officer of Flipkart.

health-insurance-premium-is-shooting-through-the-roof-and-policyholders-are-worried-sick

Sun Jun 30 11:38:21 IST 2024

Udit Bhandari, a real estate consultant, lives in Gurugram, Haryana, with his wife and eight-year-old son. He has a family floater health insurance policy from a private insurance company. Family floaters are health insurance plans that cover health care expenses of any of the members of a family, and they are very popular because of the flexibility. But Bhandari is worried, as his plan’s premium has gone up exorbitantly. “For a cover of Rs5 lakh, I paid a premium of Rs28,578 for two years (2022-24). For the same policy and the same cover, this time (2024-2026) they have quoted Rs39,500, though I had not made any claims in the past five years,” he says.

Bhandari is not alone. In a recent survey by LocalCircles on health insurance premiums, around 21 per cent of the 11,000 respondents said their premiums jumped 50 per cent in the past year. Around 31 per cent said their premiums went up by 25-50 per cent and about half of the respondents said their premiums increased by more than 25 per cent.

There are several reasons behind this rise. Insurance premiums usually go up with age. Also, there has been significant cost inflation in the health care sector. “In health care industry, the cost of treatment increases at the rate of 10-15 per cent,” said Ashish Yadav, head of products at ManipalCigna Health Insurance Company. In fact, prices rose massively during the pandemic. Bhandari said that in some of the top private hospitals in Gurugram, the consultation fees charged by specialists had gone up from around Rs1,000 to Rs2,000.

“While the number one factor that impacts health care cost is inflation, number two is unanticipated incidents like the Covid-19 pandemic. There could be a spike in various other infections and related diseases. Our lifestyles are also changing. There are increasing incidents of cancer and cardiac-related ailments,” said Yadav.

Another reason is the rapid advancements in the health care sector. “The medical field is constantly evolving, with new, often expensive, diagnostic tools and treatment options emerging,” said Tapan Singhel, MD and CEO of Bajaj Allianz General Insurance. “While these advancements are positive for patient outcomes, they contribute to the rising health care costs, which are reflected in premiums.”

Then there is heavy taxation. Currently, a GST of 18 per cent is levied on insurance premiums. For instance, if your annual insurance premium is Rs30,000, the addition of GST will take it to Rs35,400. Before the GST regime was implemented, there was a 15 per cent service tax on health insurance. A parliamentary panel has recommended to reduce the GST rate on health insurance products, especially micro-insurance policies and health insurance plans for senior citizens. “Reducing GST on health insurance premiums would be a welcome step, as it would reduce the financial burden on customers and encourage them to purchase health insurance,” said Singhel.

Health care costs have gone up so much that most Indians cannot afford them. The irony is a majority of Indians do not have health insurance, which would have equipped them to access these services. According to insurtech platform Plum, about 71 per cent of Indians pay for their health care expenses out of their pockets.

The silver lining is the fact that health insurance is growing fast. “It has now overtaken motor insurance,” said Yadav. “Covid played a very important role here; it acted as a catalyst, making people realise the need for health insurance and how much health insurance one should take.”

Health insurance has also moved beyond the vanilla mediclaim policies. Plans are now available for specific ailments, out-patient department (OPD) costs and doctor consultations. Amit Chhabra, chief business officer, general insurance, Policybazaar, said the demand for OPD plans had quadrupled. One can also buy longer-duration policies.

“Health insurance has become extremely modular lately,” said Chhabra. “Consumers can go for a basic plan and buy add-ons for features that they require. This can significantly reduce their insurance premium. Increasing deductibles is another effective method; while it requires higher out-of-pocket payments before insurance kicks in, it significantly reduces the monthly or annual premiums.” Several insurance companies offer discounts based on cities as well. A person living in a small city, for instance, has to pay around 40 per cent less premium than someone living in a metro.

Technology plays a key role today in the health insurance space. Not only that policy issuance and the claims process have become digital, but also smartwatches and fitness apps can be linked to the policy. Insurance companies track this data and reward customers who are active and fit with discounts and lower premiums. “The journey that this industry has witnessed is from illness to wellness,” said Yadav. “A lot of innovation is happening on wellness. The insurance companies are rewarding customers with good fitness regime.” If no claim is made during the policy period, insurers offer a no-claim bonus, which could be in the form of an increase in the sum assured or lower premiums.

The settlement of claims in a timely manner is also an issue with medical insurance. The Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India has been trying to streamline the claims process. In May, IRDAI issued a master circular in which the regulator asked companies to decide on cashless authorisation requests within an hour. It also said no policy and claim should be contestable on any grounds of non-disclosure except for established fraud, after the completion of the moratorium period of 60 months of continuous coverage. Customers who missed renewing their policy will be granted a grace period of 30 days from the payment due date if paid annually, half yearly or quarterly, and 15 days in case of monthly premium payment.

The Union health ministry and IRDAI have set up a National Health Claim Exchange to simplify and expedite the claims filing process. “By creating a digital, interoperable and standardised platform, the National Health Claim Exchange aims to enhance the efficiency and transparency of the claims process. This initiative addresses the longstanding issues of manual data entry, inconsistent procedures, and high administrative costs that have plagued the health insurance sector in India,” said Chhabra.

It will bring insurers, health care providers and policyholders onto a single platform, facilitating seamless information exchange and improving the accuracy and reliability of claims-related data. This transparency should help reduce disputes and ensure quicker claim settlements.

confederation-of-indian-industry-president-sanjiv-puri-interview

Sat Jun 22 15:11:16 IST 2024

Interview/ Sanjiv Puri, president, Confederation of Indian Industry

SANJIV PURI, THE ITC chairman who was recently elected president of the Confederation of Indian Industry, has a clear blueprint: Ensure that the new ‘coalition’ government’s composition does not derail the economic reforms set in motion by Modi 1.0 and 2.0. And that there is something in it for everyone, the takeaways from the recent election results making it all too clear. Puri and India Inc’s first test in this regard will be the Union budget, slated for mid-July. And he has some expectations. Excerpts from an exclusive interview:

Q/ India is having an economic boom, but one that is not creating jobs. Is the private sector not investing enough at fault?

A/ India has achieved an 8 per cent plus growth at a time when the rest of the world has been under stress. So that in itself is an exceptional performance. Now, India has a demographic advantage. Therefore, there is a need to create a lot of quality jobs; no doubt about it. What should be the way forward? The broad approach to growth and creating jobs is around the model that has been adopted by the government—an investment-led growth. Investment creating jobs and consumption creating a virtuous cycle.

First of all, we need to look at next generation reforms, which are between the state and the Centre. Land, labour, agriculture, power, and so on, to unlock the productivity of the economy.

Number two, we believe that the private capital expenditure (capex), which also serves a purpose besides generating employment, strengthens the competitiveness of the economy, reduces logistics costs and increases accessibility for people to various services that may not be available in their location. Private capex should go up by 25 per cent. And there can be greater thrust on rural areas besides these two.

Q/ But that would again be from the government side. What can the private sector do to generate more jobs?

A/ I don’t think these two are completely divorced from each other. Clearly industry has an important role to play. Whatever items I am saying, it is not just for policy makers, but also for the industry to leverage to orchestrate the next horizon growth.

If you look at manufacturing, we are seeing that this sector is reviving in a significant way with fresh investments. There is also an opportunity in sectors that have a high employment index, where the employment-to-capital ratio is high. These are sectors like toys, apparel, textiles, wood-based, retail, tourism, media and entertainment. These are industries that need to be provided further impetus. For this, we are recommending an employment-linked incentive (ELI) with some outcome metrics.

A lot of investment needs to go into human capital development—skilling, education and health care. And industry also needs to do its bit as far as that is concerned.

For rural areas, we are suggesting integrated development hubs, where even CII can open model career centres and so on. Again, joint responsibilities.

As far as investment is concerned, let me say that the private sector is investing. The investment as a percentage of the GDP in the financial year 2023 was 23.8 per cent. The trajectory is upward. It is higher than the highest peak over the past several years.

This is also a result of the fact that a lot of good enablers are in place—the rationalisation of the corporate income tax, the PLI schemes, ease of doing business, the interventions on logistics, FTAs, the technology tie-ups that have been enabled through bilateral agreements. All of these are providing the opportunity and we are seeing investment go up.

Q/ You said that the industry’s viewpoint is that the RBI’s annual dividend to the government, which this year had more than doubled to 02.1 lakh crore, should be used for additional capex.

A/ One portion of it.

Q/ Looking at the upcoming budget, do you think the government’s viewpoints might just have changed after the election results? There had been so much focus on infra and capex spending.

A/ The larger approach is on reforms to unlock the potential of the economy to make it more productive. Within that, capex is just one part of it. I see no reason that should change because we have benefitted from it. The economy is doing well. Capex, in particular, increases the productive capacity of the economy, besides creating jobs. So we believe that given the impact it has had, there is a reason to continue, or even, accelerate the pace of reforms.

Q/ The focus on infra and capex, a lot of highways and airports and all, did not really work if you go by the election results, and rural distress is pretty real. If the industry has a wish list, what would it suggest to the government?

A/ Highways and all increase the productive capacity of the economy. These are all essential requirements.

Specifically on rural, we should acknowledge the fact that some of the stress is on account of factors like climate. And the overall cost has gone up because of external factors. At one point of time, for instance, fertiliser cost really went up. Then there are geopolitical issues. I would say India has managed that comparatively well.

So where do we go from there? The issue is to look at how to build productivity in agriculture, how to build resilience in agriculture. There are certain policy instruments that are already in play, like farmer collectives and digital. We have to now take it to the next level to create clusters, create ecosystems for leveraging technology in agriculture.

And the second piece is on social infrastructure. It is about skilling, education, health care. To promote the spirit of entrepreneurship so that the people in rural areas are also available as resources to partner in the broader economy.

We are also suggesting creation of integrated rural development hubs where all of these facilities can be converged around a cluster of villages.

Q/ What are the areas that the government should probably look at now?

A/ These are the areas where we are seeing the next phase of transformation—labour, agriculture, power.

Q/ What would be the Indian industry’s best-case scenario for the upcoming budget?

A/ Continue on the fiscal glide path. Continue to invest in the important areas of public capex, social infrastructure, agriculture and creating centres of excellence in tourism.

from-simplified-taxes-to-daring-reforms-india-incs-wish-list-for-the-new-government-is-long

Sat May 25 11:58:15 IST 2024

Most bureaucrats in the corridors of power in Delhi look forward to the summer. The pace of work gets a bit languorous and a good chunk, family in tow, go to their native places for that much-needed summer vacation. Many others take off to cooler climes―the lucky few to Europe and others to domestic hill stations and pilgrim centres.

A lazy summer becomes an even greater attraction in an election year. With the model code of conduct limiting the incumbent government from making any major decisions or policy changes and with ministers away campaigning, the pace of government work further slows down. It is usually a relaxed few weeks spent speculating on election results and extended tea breaks before the flurry of activity hits them in full blast with a new government.

This summer, though, things have been a bit different. The outgoing Narendra Modi government, in a show of super confidence in its fate at the hustings, has given them so much work that the bureaucracy’s hope for a ‘chill-out summer’ just melted away. It was set in motion way back in February. Modi initiated in a cabinet meeting the planning for a 100-day agenda that his government would take up after coming back to power. The plan was to be worked out by senior bureaucrats; a final list of 50 projects or policies to be taken up immediately after the new government’s formation, targeted at the grand vision of ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047.

The result? Senior bureaucrats have been scampering around attending many rounds of meetings and presentations. Officials from the ministries of finance, corporate affairs, and micro, medium and small enterprises have been particularly busy, with meetings and deliberations on topics ranging from rationalisation of tax rates to prioritising pending reforms. A vision document for transforming the country into Viksit Bharat and the launch of a ‘Made in India’ branding are under preparation.

But is all the planning in ministerial meeting rooms in tune with what the industry and markets want?

“I have a straightforward answer,” said former Reserve Bank governor D. Subbarao, when asked what the new government should focus on. “We must focus on creating jobs.”

For all the big numbers that are being touted around―a blazing pace of growth not less than 6.5 per cent; soon to be the world’s fourth largest economy―India exhibits a curious dichotomy on the ground. The ‘India Shining’ sentiment does not reflect ground reality―there aren’t enough jobs for the youth, and the rural India and the lower middle class are not yet out of the distress caused by the Covid pandemic.

It is not that the government has not tried. Through its Atmanirbhar Bharat packages and production-linked incentive (PLI) schemes, it had sought to exert emphasis on improving the state of manufacturing in the country. Indian economy had moved from an agrarian one to a services-focused one, largely skipping the manufacturing phase which many developed nations had gone through in their transition. The post-Covid world order demanded that the country focus on self-reliance and its own manufacturing capabilities, with the neat dividend of it being a job creator.

But there was a problem. Where do you get the qualified workers?

“Growing the way we are, we are not able to get skilled, disciplined and regular manpower,” said Ajinkya Firodia, managing director of automaker Kinetic Engineering.

While labour laws are one part of it, the stark reality is that India’s labour force is unskilled or, at best, semi-skilled. This is when India has grandiose visions of becoming a tech manufacturing hub, making anything from Tesla’s electric cars (Elon Musk willing) to semiconductors. Those leaving their farming days behind and venturing into industrial hubs eager for labour jobs may not fit the bill any longer.

R. Dinesh, founder and executive chairman of TVS Supply Chain Solutions and the outgoing president of the Confederation of Indian Industry, realises this gap. “We have formally educated workers ready to work, but with new technologies and artificial intelligence coming in, the process of manufacturing itself has changed dramatically,” he said. “All of it requires upskilling.”

While some corporates and even industry bodies like the CII have set up centres for upskilling, it might not be enough. “One of our asks for the future is for an employment-linked incentive plan,” said Dinesh. “Especially in sectors like textiles, logistics, tourism, hospitality and health care. And as we keep investing in those sectors, you will see that a virtuous cycle will be set in motion, because people get prepared and they get an opportunity.”

But it would be foolhardy to expect this mega job creation to happen through just big multinationals or the big daddies of India Inc. Therein pops up the most talked about, but yet-to-be-weaponised four-letter acronym in the country―MSME, or micro, small and medium businesses. It is still looking for a saviour as it has not come out of the troubles that Covid caused. Yet, the category offers the best possible avenue for job creation in a nation that desperately needs its GDP growth benefits to trickle down.

“With a new government coming on board, it is an important point for us to figure out how to support MSMEs for their own growth,” said Dinesh. He suggests creating a fund which allows first ‘loss’ guarantee (the government will cover a certain percentage of losses if the borrower defaults on a loan), developing a rating system that understands sector requirements, and helping MSMEs in their digital and green transition.

While advocating green transition is fashionable, India Inc, deep inside, does palpitate at its implications. Especially with India in advanced stage of negotiations for free trade agreements with the likes of the UK, Oman and the EU. It would trigger a new approach to the environment, carbon emissions and renewable energy, which can be an opportunity or a challenge, depending on how you approach it.

“Once the FTAs come into existence, many Indian businesses will feel that they are put at a competitive disadvantage as cost of compliance goes up,” said Sunil Kumar Sinha, principal economist & director (public finance) at India Ratings & Research, pointing to the EU’s carbon adjustment mechanism that might make Indian exports to the continent more expensive. “India has committed to energy transition. So it is a very important focus, irrespective of whether you are a cement manufacturer, steel manufacturer or fertiliser manufacturer. Everyone would be closely looking forward to what policies are put in place by the government in terms of energy transition and increasing use of renewable energy as compared with fossil fuel energy. It will call to form the very best of the government’s balancing act.”

Another challenge is the upswing in real estate prices, which poses a question to the government’s efforts to develop affordable houses. “We need a scheme for really affordable houses,” said G. Hari Babu, president of the National Real Estate Development Council. “Around 10 per cent of our population controls 63 per cent of the total wealth in the country. So it is time we gave some subsidies to the other 90 per cent.”

His suggestion? Plan houses under Rs35 lakh, offered with home loans up to Rs25 lakh on a lowered interest rate of 5 per cent for the first five years. “The Central government should put in a word to state governments to lower stamp duty for their registration process,” he said.

In commercial realty, too, there are expectations of unlocking potential through relaxing stipulations. For instance, allowing special economic zones (SEZs) to use a portion of their land for development “made India the most preferred location for Global Capability Centres”, said Sanjay Chatrath, managing partner of Incuspaze, a co-working space provider. “We expect that the new government would focus on initiating progressive initiatives like the GIFT City in other cities, too,” he said.

The government’s economic direction so far has been in alignment with the interests of big businesses. The massive investment in infra, ranging from highways to ports and airports, the Gati Shakti programme and the digitisation of logistic networks have directly helped business growth. “There is a clear consensus among industry members that we are on the cusp of seizing an opportunity to use this cost competitiveness and digital differentiation to become more global,” said Dinesh. “Already, it is happening in certain sectors, but we see a lot more opportunities.”

The new government will also be expected to push for the three big-ticket reforms that have vexed the Modi regime throughout its tenure―land, labour and agriculture reforms. “The pending reforms in labour and land are very difficult,” said Sinha. “When it came back to power in 2014, the NDA government tried to touch them, and immediately gave up because of the resistance.”

It was worse when it came to agriculture reforms, and these ‘holy trinity’ prompts Sinha to believe that the incoming regime will stay clear of it. “On the contrary, they will look at infra development and improvement in ease of doing business,” he said.

But a businessman can dream, right? “Land, labour and agri reforms are possible, in our view,” said Dinesh. “Just like GST, when people sit down and discuss, we can build up consensus.”

former-reserve-bank-governor-d-subbarao-interview

Sat May 25 11:52:23 IST 2024

Interview/ D. Subbarao, former Reserve Bank governor

From standing up to the Union government to defend the autonomy of the Reserve Bank of India to criticising the deteriorating quality of the civil services, Duvvuri Subbarao has never shied away from doing the heavy lifting. As his latest book, Just a Mercenary, hits headlines for his questioning the Comptroller and Auditor General’s interpretation of ‘presumptive loss’ in the 2G scam, THE WEEK caught up with the former bureaucrat, who also had served as finance secretary and secretary to the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council. Excerpts from an exclusive interview:

Q/ The most satisfying and most traumatic part of your career, now looking back.

A/ I was posted as an officer on special duty for bottling liquor by the N.T. Rama Rao government in Andhra Pradesh in the mid-1980s. NTR was aghast at people drinking adulterated liquor, and losing lives and livelihoods. So he decided that the solution was to set up arrack bottling plants in every district, and I was appointed an officer on special duty for the project.

My first reaction was, why did they pick me? I had shown no special expertise for field projects, particularly for bottling liquor. I thought I was destined for bigger things―join the IAS and change the world. I was angry. I sat at home for three-four days, but then picked myself up. I said, ‘If I have to do this, I will do it. If I fail, that’s okay. But at least let me try.’ I completed the project three days ahead of the deadline. It was a tremendously satisfying experience.

And I learned many lessons. For example, that people should not fear being pushed out of their comfort zones. In fact, there are a lot of lessons to be learned from being pushed out of your comfort zone. In leadership training programmes, they tell you the secret to success in life is to discover your passion and follow it. But the lesson I learned is not so much to discover your passion and follow it, but to do whatever you have to do in life with passion.

Q/ With a lot of fundamental changes slated to happen, including delimitation, what would you say is the ideal way forward for the Centre-state balance of power?

A/ The amount that states can borrow has to be approved by the Union government. I believe those are good guidelines, although some states are protesting. States have to learn to be more self-sufficient and fall back on their own resources and see how they can raise additional taxes, improve governance, and improve the investment climate that will generate jobs and get more productive.

Q/ States also complain that with the GST, they don’t have control over revenue. Meanwhile, industry has been demanding that state subjects like excise and fuel also be included in the GST.

A/ I think the GST has been a great thing although we have had some implementation problems. As late finance minister Arun Jaitley said, it is a tribute to our fiscal federalism. The states and the Centre came together for the common good. I don’t think the GST should be seen as a mechanism that has actually detracted from the autonomy of states. That is the wrong way of looking at it. But, of course, states will complain―have you ever seen a hostel student who doesn’t complain about the hostel food? It is in their very nature to complain!

Q/ Richer states say they are not getting their due.

A/ There is some cross-subsidisation. For every rupee richer states like Maharashtra and Karnataka contribute to the central tax pool, they get back less than a rupee. Poorest states like Bihar and Jharkhand get more than a rupee for every rupee they contribute. That is necessary, even desirable, up to a certain extent. It happens in most other federations. It is incumbent on the richest states to cross-subsidise the poorest states.

But there has to be limits to it. And I get a sense that we are hitting the limits of that cross-subsidisation. There has to be some milestone set for the cross-subsidisation formula. It cannot go on forever.

Q/ We will have a new government soon. What are the areas it should focus on?

A/ I have a straightforward answer to that: We must focus on creating jobs.

The economy is growing at a sizzling pace, eight plus per cent year before last, 7.6 per cent last year, 7 per cent this year, estimated, and probably 6.5 per cent for the next two to three years. Yet, it is not creating jobs, because growth is coming from sectors that are not job intensive. Several economists who study these numbers have said that this pace of growth of 6.5 to 7 per cent is incompatible with the growth in consumption, which is just 3.5 per cent, which shows that there is unemployment and there is growing inequality. Unemployment and inequality are the two big problems and solving them is morally right, not just politically right. I believe it is good economics. We need to solve them because consumption is the biggest growth driver in India. We have about 300 to 500 million people who are middle class or lower middle class. If their incomes improve, they will spend that money. And when they spend that money, demand will go up. If demand goes up, production will go up, jobs will go up, that will generate more jobs and more growth. So, we need to focus on creating jobs and ensuring that benefits of growth are widely shared for our growth to be sustainable. It is an economic necessity.

We have not focused as much on job creation as on growth numbers. In fact, you are not seeing this debate in the election, it is all about reservations and freebies. How do you ensure that the benefits of the wealth creation accrue to the important segments of the population? Growth and inequality are two big problems that the next government must address.

Q/ You said growth is in areas that are not job-intensive. So which areas should the new government focus on?

A/ Let’s look at agriculture. Agriculture will not create jobs. In fact, there are about 70 to 80 million people, perhaps even more, in the agriculture sector, who are underemployed. If agriculture productivity improves as we want it to, agriculture will throw out 80 million to 100 million people. Those people will have to look at jobs outside.

Then there is the services sector. People think that the services sector is very job-intensive. But that view is shaped by the experience of a Bangalore or a Hyderabad, the software hubs. But if you actually dig deeper, you’ll find that software has created just about 7 million to 8 million jobs in a workforce of a billion. So the services sector jobs that have been created over the last 10 years are low-end jobs like security guards, cleaners and janitors. But we want higher-end jobs. So if agriculture and services are not the solution in the immediate future, we are going to fall back on manufacturing.

We know that large corporate investment is not job-intensive. But if large corporate private investment comes in, that will have a multiplier effect down the line. MSMEs and below MSMEs, even tiny enterprises. And those are job-intensive. That’s where we must be focusing on.

But on the supply side, we have to work on skills and on education. I told you about the labour that agriculture would throw out. They are going to be at best semi-skilled and they cannot be absorbed in the manufacturing sector right away. You have to make them job- ready. We have to attack the jobs problem from both the demand side and the supply side.

Just a Mercenary; Notes From My Life and Career

By Duvvuri Subbarao

Published by Penguin Viking

Price Rs799 (hardbound); pages 435

indian-economist-karthik-muralidharan-interview

Sat May 25 11:48:28 IST 2024

Interview/ Karthik Muralidharan, economist

It is unusual for an economist to make heads turn for his theories and philosophies rather than his politics or insider revelations. But that is exactly what Karthik Muralidharan seems to have achieved with his just-released book Accelerating India’s Development. The reviews have ranged from ‘outstanding’ to ‘essential reading’. THE WEEK caught up with this Tata Chancellor’s Professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego. Excerpts from an interview:

Q/ What is your theory about development and where India is going wrong?

A/ The grand debate in development has been about growth. [Economists] J.N. Bhagwati and Arvind Panagariya will say that if you manage to get faster economic growth, everything else will follow. On the other hand, Amartya Sen and Jean Dreze will say that the purpose of development is to improve human life and therefore things like health and education should be a priority.

Now my point of departure in this debate is to say that at some level they are both correct. Because more growth helps human development, more human development helps growth. Then it becomes a fight about what you should focus on. The growthwallahs will say we need to do capital expenditure. The developmentwallahs will say we need to focus on the social sector. This is fundamentally a fight for budget allocation. But if you look at how inefficient the government is in the delivery system, then it doesn’t matter what you’re spending on, you’re spending it very badly.

Q/ You say our delivery system is flawed; the government says it has tided over this situation by using digital as a means of last-mile delivery.

A/ The modern welfare state initially had limited democracy, with voting rights only to white property-owning men. And that demographic wanted capital expenditure because they benefitted from the appreciation of capex. I gave this context because what makes India unique in human history is that we are the only country with universal democracy from day one. It is a great moral triumph, because it gives the marginalised citizens a voice in governance.

But the problem is that it expands the demands on the state before the state has the capacity to meet those demands. Because these other welfare states happened after they reached middle income status. The US, for instance, did food stamps for the poor at a GDP per capita of $18,000 (adjusted to 2011) while India did PDS at a GDP per capita of $1,200.

But what that means is that given the limited public finances of the welfare state, the lack of programmes at an early stage means that we have chronically underinvested in our governance systems. Because these systems only pay off in the long term, the political incentive to invest in governance is always important but never urgent, say, compared with a short-term scheme that appeal to the voters.

The current government has not expanded any of the major welfare schemes but has focused more on tightening and cleaning up delivery. And I think they have managed to do that very well in welfare programmes where you can dis-intermediate these layers. The unfinished agenda now is the service delivery that is mediated through humans. So, if you look at education, if you look at health, you can’t digitise away the intermediary. That requires a much deeper, sophisticated thinking on governance.

Q/ Whenever we have a very strong Central government, sentiments against over-centralisation pop up.

A/ We need to not focus too much on who has control but on what is good for citizens. There are costs and benefits of both that we have to balance. The benefit of centralisation is that sometimes you get economies of scale, better national coordination, better expertise and lower transaction costs. But if you over-centralise, you have to accommodate more variation across the country with the same policy. For example, Kerala’s needs are very different from Bihar’s.

Second problem is not about Centre to state, but state to local. The bigger over-centralisation in India is not from Delhi to state governments, but from state to local. The reason I am not sympathetic to chief ministers who complain about over-centralising is that they are the most guilty of over-centralising. So like [the late economist] Dr Raja Chelliah famously said, everybody wants decentralisation up to their level, but nobody wants to let go of power below that. So the important point is, go back to first principles of federalism and look at what is in the citizens’ interest.

There are aspects of governance where we need more centralisation, but there are other aspects where we need much less. India is the most over-centralised country in the world. One reason was the fear that local elites will not allow education of underprivileged groups or gender rights. So they over-centralised because of the Ambedkar-Nehruvian vision of a modernising state that will overcome the biases and prejudices of traditional society. They never trusted local governments. Unfortunately, that has not worked. If you want effective service delivery, you have to decentralise more.

But now, the good news after 75 years of independence is that people are a lot more educated and a lot more aware that they are able to resist if there is too much local elite capture. So that is why on service delivery we need a lot more decentralisation. But the action needed is not so much centre to state, but state to local.

Q/ What would be the two fundamental changes that India needs to do to speed up growth?

A/ The single biggest thing holding India back right now is the weak delivery of essential services. At one level, we have a very good system, macro fundamentals are good, growth rate is good, but there is very uneven growth. The top 10 per cent is driving growth by high incomes and good jobs. The next 30 to 40 per cent are migrant workers from rural to urban areas who are being sustained by the demand created by the top 10 per cent. Then you’ve got the bottom 50 per cent who are completely left out because rural stagnation is very real.

At one level, this model has delivered a certain amount, but we can’t accelerate growth to 8, 9 or 10 per cent unless you are firing on all engines. Right now, you are firing on only 10 per cent of the engines. The bottom 50 per cent is not participating actively in the growth process because they don’t have the health, the education and the skills required to participate. Services used by the poor, for the most part, are incredibly weak. The key sectors we need to focus on are education and skills, health and nutrition, and police and public safety. Safety is a fundamental determinant of female labour force participation.

Accelerating India’s Development: A State-led Roadmap for Effective Governance

By Karthik Muralidharan

Published by Penguin Viking

Price Rs1,299 (hardbound); pages 812

understanding-valuations-large-caps-vs-mid-and-small-caps

Sat May 18 12:21:35 IST 2024

THE PAST YEAR has been exceptionally rewarding for equity investors in India, with small-cap and mid-cap stocks outperforming the large caps. Returns of Mid and Small cap space exceeded 60 per cent each, while large caps yielded around 34 per cent.

This rally in market has left investors divided: some investors are now considering to exit the stock market because they are not sure if this good time will continue, while some others are still putting money in, hoping to get good returns. This trend is reflected in mutual fund flows, where inflows into mid and small-cap categories have dipped but remain substantial, surpassing Rs4,700 crores according to recent AMFI data for February 2024. These contrasting sentiments and actions of investors underscore the dynamic nature of equity markets, where strategy plays a pivotal role in navigating investment opportunities and risks.

Historically it has been observed that investors who chase returns often have a bad investing experience. This happens because when you chase returns, you might end up investing in stocks or areas that are already very expensive compared to their intrinsic value. Warren Buffet in his investing theories has always emphasised on the importance of not overpaying for investments, as the true value of an asset should justify its price. Hence, one of the most important parameters of investing is valuation as it helps in understanding whether a particular market cap segment is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued relative to its growth prospects.

Comparison of Large Cap versus Mid and Small Caps in terms of valuation

Large cap stocks generally represent those companies that are firmly established and are amongst the companies with the largest market capitalization. They often have stable earnings, established market positions, and relatively lower risk compared to mid and small caps. On the other hand, mid and small-cap stocks belong to companies with relatively smaller market capitalizations and is fundamentally not as robust and well established as the large caps.

When comparing the valuation of large cap stocks to mid and small-caps, various valuation parameters like Price-to-Earnings (PE), Price-to-Book (PB), and Market Cap to GDP ratios can be considered. However, the most used metrics are PE and PB Ratios. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio measures how much investors are paying for each unit of earnings by comparing a company’s stock price to its earnings per share. A high P/E ratio may indicate an overvalued stock, while a low ratio could suggest undervaluation.

Similarly, the Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio compares a company’s stock price to its book value per share, reflecting the market’s valuation of the company’s assets relative to its market price. It is important to note that any valuation ratio in absolute terms does not provide a clear picture and should always be analysed in a relative context. Comparing these ratios across different market cap segments helps investors assess whether stocks are priced fairly, overvalued, or undervalued.

The recent rally in mid and small-cap segments, coupled with continued flows, suggests that these flows are driving the rally more than fundamentals. Currently, the PE of Nifty 100, representing large caps, stands at 23.18, with a PB of 4.01. In contrast, midcaps have a PE of 33.63 and PB of 4.59, showing they are relatively expensive. Even small caps exhibit high valuations. The market cap share of mid and small caps exceeds their Dec 17 highs, while large caps remain near their previous low in Mar 2018. Additionally, the small cap to large cap market cap ratio has surpassed 2008 levels, indicating an overstretched rally in small caps.

Further, understanding that different market cap segments perform differently during economic cycles is crucial. For instance, small cap stocks tend to be more sensitive to economic downturns, leading to weaker performance cycles and hence they carry higher risk.

Investing in Large caps

For an investor looking to invest into large caps, one of the easiest ways is to invest in a large cap based mutual fund offering. Here, the fund manager, will invest into a set of companies from the top 100 stock universe. From the offerings available, ICICI Prudential Bluechip is one of the oldest (15+year track record) and the largest in the category. The fund has weathered several market storms and has delivered consistent returns over the years. As of March 31, 2024, the fund delivered an impressive one-year return of 42.4 per cent and a healthy return of 21.5 per cent and 17.9 per cent over three and five years respectively.

Mahesh Kumar S. Is proprietor, Dreamz Finmart. +91 9842526928

understanding-business-cycle-investing

Sat May 04 12:36:25 IST 2024

EVERY NEW YEAR brings with it untold opportunities and possibilities in every ream of life and the investing sphere is no different. While you may have tried your hand at a variety of investment styles such as value investing, growth investing, dividend investing, and index investing among others, have you ever attempted business cycle based investing? If not, then 2024 could be a great year to try this probabilistic analysis based investing strategy which is slowly yet steadily picking pace in the economic ecosystem.

What is business cycle investing?

Investors who practice business cycle investing tend to keenly observe the ebb and flow of economic activity, known as the business cycle, while adjusting their investment strategies accordingly. This involves tweaking sector exposure within their portfolios based on prevailing economic conditions―for instance, during economic expansions, certain industries thrive, whereas others fare better during contractions. Therefore, the business cycle―tracking a nation’s economic expansion and contraction phases―mirrors the fluctuations in gross domestic product (GDP) and overall economic activity, which tend to be impacted by everything from workforce productivity, population growth, and technological advancements to external events.

Cycles and sectors at play
While business and market cycles are often used interchangeably, they measure distinct aspects; the former assesses overall economic health, while the latter gauges stock market fluctuations. The business cycle operates in stages, spanning periods of expansion and contraction, with the four primary stages including recession, early cycle, mid-cycle, and late cycle. Each phase, with varying durations, presents unique challenges and opportunities for investors. Industries react differently to these phases, with certain sectors demonstrating resilience or prosperity. For instance, sectors such as health care, consumer staples, and utilities tend to weather recessions well due to constant demand, while early-cycle expansion sees growth-oriented sectors like retail, construction, and financial services thrive, buoyed by increased spending and borrowing.

Is it right for you?

Now that you know the concept of business cycle based investing, we come to the question of whether or not this strategy is the right fit for your requirements. Business cycle investing entails predicting shifts in the business cycle and adjusting asset allocation accordingly, aiming to capitalise on assets’ performance across different phases. Investors who follow this strategy might purchase stocks during economic expansions and divest before the peak in anticipation of a downturn.

While potentially lucrative, this active approach demands constant monitoring of economic indicators and market trends, as timing the market accurately poses challenges. Therefore, this strategy is best suited for investors with the time and risk tolerance to navigate market cycles adeptly. Conversely, a long-term buy-and-hold strategy, preferred by some, eschews market timing, emphasising minimal portfolio adjustments over time. This strategy, while less hands-on, prioritises stability and may be better aligned with the risk preferences of investors.

Business cycle investing in 2024

Business cycle investing is a suitable strategy for 2024 and beyond as this investing style adopts a top-down approach, analysing how broader economic cycles impact markets, sectors, and individual stocks. Over the next half-decade, and probably further, chances are high that central banks, and their monetary policy movements, will likely steer markets, underscoring the significance of macro-oriented investing. The importance of top-down investing became apparent in the past two decades, with a global liquidity surge lifting stock markets from 2003 to 2007, followed by the global financial crisis causing a sharp downturn. In India, the government’s response to the 2008 crisis initially spurred growth until 2012, but it eventually led to challenges like high inflation, currency depreciation, and a cycle of non-performing assets (NPAs), persisting for years.

Across these and more such scenarios in the future, business cycle investing has the potential to ensure portfolio robustness, as investors pay more attention to the macros at play and pick stocks based on their ability to perform optimally even amid economic shocks.

Dhanya V.R., CFP, is MD, Wealth Plus Financial Solutions.

we-want-to-help-include-more-people-in-the-economic-system-george-m-george

Sat Apr 13 11:27:41 IST 2024

GEORGE M. GEORGE, deputy managing director of The Muthoot Group, looks after the hospitality business of the diversified group. But there is another responsibility that George keeps closer to his heart, spearheading the group’s corporate social responsibility initiatives. He says the company is committed to these initiatives and that is why it has not outsourced it to an NGO. It uses its vast network of branches to identify the beneficiaries and help them. George talks about his focus areas, plans and how he wants to do more for the environment.

Could you please give our readers an idea about your CSR activities.

We have channelised our CSR activities into three important sectors―education, health care, and environment. About 98 per cent of our projects fall in these three sections. Why are these sectors important? Education is something that is the basis on which we can build the economy of the country, if not the future of the country. India is going towards a $5 trillion economy, as the Prime Minister said, and we hope that as we include more people within the economic system, or at least people who are gainfully employed, it will help.

But that's not the only thing, because education also provides people with sustenance. Charity only gets you that far, but if you can educate somebody, then you're building a future for that person, and most probably for their children and their future generations as well. One of the projects that we are focused on is the anganwadis. They are mostly dilapidated, ignored. It is more seen as a provision for the urban poor, or for semi-rural areas. There are 68 million children in anganwadis in India, which is the total population of some small countries. We did one project in Moolampilly in Kerala, where we built the country's first smart anganwadi. Our aim is to do at least 100 in the next five years, if not more. We've already completed 25. It's called the Muthoot Smart Anganwadi.

In health care, there are many initiatives. For our Snehasraya health check-up vans, we are getting a lot of applications across our branch network. We have these vans going out there and doing medical checkups for people who can't afford to go for them. And then we categorise them into A, B, and C. A is the ones who are okay. B is where they are on the borderline. So, we would recommend that they go see doctors. We subsidise that and any medication that is required. C is complicated issues that require medical intervention. We are doing it in five states now―Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala. We've touched more than six lakh people.

One other programme that we did was the Cup of Life initiative with Hibi Eden, MP. It was months and months of activity, to educate women on how they could get rid of sanitary pads and use menstrual cups. We entered the Guinness Book of Records for distributing the highest number of menstrual cups within 24 hours. The aim was not to break that record, but it just so happened.

On an average, we spend about Rs100 crore a year. We could easily just give it to an NGO and get it off our heads. But we are present in more than 6,000 locations across the country, and we get requests through these branches for all these projects. We also have our CSR managers in key locations across the country. Along with CSR, we insist on ISR, which is individual social responsibility.

We are supporting traditional artists in a big way, especially those who are associated with the temple arts. They have contributed immensely to society, but have little savings. We identified these people who were well-recognised, but are now in distress. We give them an amount on a monthly basis―Rs4,000 to Rs5,000. We add more artists every year. We have decided to do it for another three to five years.

At last but not the least, the environment. We do projects, but I don't think we do enough. By environment we don't mean just flora and fauna. The environment comprises of everything within it. Like even society, people, traditions, culture and values… all of these are also important.

Is the geographical distribution of your CSR work proportional to your business?

The business is like 50 per cent from the north, east and west and 50 per cent from the south of India. And our CSR spend is more or less like that, 50-50. We never looked at it from that perspective, but today I think we've also had a lot of questions asked by the independent directors as well.

Is there an area which you would like to focus on in the future?

Environment. It's not flora and fauna alone, it involves people. It involves their livelihoods.

recent-initiatives-by-sebi-have-made-capital-markets-a-better-place-for-investors

Sat Apr 06 16:24:38 IST 2024

January 27, 2023, was a significant day in the history of India’s capital markets―they fully transitioned to T+1 settlements, which meant if you sold shares you would get the money in your account the next day. They went one better on March 25, 2024, as the stock exchanges debuted T+0 settlement for 25 scrips, which meant sellers would get their money on the same day. The plan is to move to instantaneous settlements next year.

The journey towards shorter settlement had begun when the Securities and Exchange Board of India allowed exchanges to move from T+2 to T+1 settlement cycle in January 2022. It was done in phases and took a year for complete switching. There were hiccups. The custodians of foreign institutional investors resisted it citing some difficulties. But, SEBI chairperson Madhabi Puri Buch ensured that all of them were ironed out.

Quicker settlements offer many benefits, notably the reduction of counterparty risk (the probability that the other party may not fulfil the contractual obligations) and the bolstering of market efficiency, said Rakeshh Mehta, chairman of Mehta Equities. “Furthermore, it is anticipated to substantially lower operational expenses for market participants and reduce the funding costs that brokers face,” he said.

There are, however, many challenges and concerns. A shorter settlement cycle would necessitate an overhaul of the market infrastructure, systems and processes. Also, it may contribute to an increase in market volatility. SEBI says it will continue consultations with stakeholders and the board will review the progress periodically.

Quicker settlement is just one of the many initiatives Buch has been pushing for since she took charge as SEBI chief two years ago. Protecting investors and reducing market risks feature high on her agenda. For instance, SEBI recently raised concerns over the rising froth in the midcap and smallcap segments on the back of significant mutual funds flows into them. The BSE midcap index surged more than 60 per cent over the past year and the smallcap index 56 per cent. Following the regulator’s concerns, the Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI) wrote to fund houses urging them to put in place safeguard measures to protect the interests of investors. Though SEBI or AMFI has so far not put any restriction on fund flows to these categories, many fund houses have put certain restrictions on flows into their smallcap funds.

The regulator has also been worried about the rising investor interest in the risky futures and options (F&O) segment. As per its own assessment, nine out of 10 individual traders in equity F&O incurred losses of an average of Rs1.1 lakh during the financial year 2021-22. Now, many brokers flash warning signs on the perils of F&O investing when investors log in to their platforms.

Why not just stop people from doing F&O trading? Buch says, we cannot end up being a “nanny state”. Development of the market, regulation of the market and investor protection, all these things have to be balanced, she said.

Use of tools like artificial intelligence is increasingly playing a big role here. For instance, officers now need not read the entire annual report of a real estate investment trust (REIT) to check for the 14-odd compliances needed. The report can be fed to ChatGPT, a generative AI programme, and an output model has been created listing down all the relevant regulations. SEBI is planning to expand its use. “We just have to tweak this (the AI model) for InvITs (infrastructure investment trusts), and we are looking at deploying this for IPO documents and offer for sale documents also,” said Buch. This means quicker clearing of IPO applications, which in turn will reduce the gap between filing for IPO and going public.

Technology is also being used for picking up front-running (the practice by market-makers of dealing on advance information provided by their brokers and investment analysts, before their clients have been given the information) and insider trading, says Buch. SEBI last month slapped a fine of Rs7.4 crore on several people who were part of the guest panel of a business news channel. They had allegedly made profit on executing trades based on advance information of stock recommendations.

Buch said there were huge growth opportunities in India’s financial markets and there would be a lot of developmental work to do as well. But, at the same time, it will have to contain fraudulent activities. “Where there is money, there is mischief,” said Buch. “So, there will always be people who will come up with innovative ways to do fraud. We will have to come up with innovative ways to catch them.”

SEBI is preparing guidelines to rein in financial influencers. It took action against two finfluencers―Mohammad Nasiruddin Ansari and P.R. Sundar―for providing investment advisory services without requisite registration. It is also keeping an eye on the small and medium enterprises IPO segment, where Buch has flagged possible signs of manipulation. Some of the IPOs in the SME segment have got subscription 100 times to 900 times higher than the issue size. The BSE SME IPO index has surged 110 per cent over the past year, significantly outperforming the broader markets. “Anybody who approaches a merchant banker gets a royal valuation,” said Avinash Gorakshakar, head of research at Profitmart Securities. “The market is such right now that even garbage is getting value.”

Buch said that since the regulations and risks were different for SME IPOs, it was important for the regulator to underline those through disclosures to investors. SEBI is also working towards identifying evidence related to potential price manipulations in the SME IPO segment.

Buch also wants to deepen financial inclusion. On her agenda is making Rs250 systematic investment plans viable in mutual funds. Over the past few years, retail investments in the equity market via SIPs of mutual funds have picked up in a big way. In February 2024 alone, 49 lakh new SIPs were registered and SIP assets under management have crossed Rs10.52 lakh crore. In most cases, the minimum amount to invest in a fund via an SIP is Rs500 or Rs1,000. “In the next one year, we are hoping to make Rs250 SIPs viable for mutual funds,” said Buch. “Some people do offer Rs100 SIP, but we know it is not viable, so they will not push it. But, if we are able to help the industry make the Rs250 SIP viable, it will really open the door to financial inclusion.”

SEBI is also working on the growth of real estate investment trusts (REITs), infrastructure investment trusts (InvITs) and the municipal bonds market. REITs are publicly traded companies that own and operate income-generating properties. The income earned by the company gets distributed among its unit holders. Though draft guidelines for REITs were first introduced in 2013, the first REIT went public only in 2019 (Embassy Office Parks), and since then only three more REITs have gone public.

SEBI wants to improve the muted demand for REITs, and it has issued guidelines for creation of small and medium REITs (SM REITs). An SM REIT will be allowed to gather funds from Rs50 crore, issuing units to a minimum of 200 investors. This move has the potential to expand the REIT market significantly, as around 328 million square feet of office assets valued at $48 billion come in this category, according to the real state consultancy JLL.

“The REIT market in India grew from Rs30,000 crore to Rs1.3 lakh crore in gross asset value within a span of five years. As the regulatory framework falls into place and fractional ownership platforms overcome initial implementation obstacles, we expect the SM REIT market to experience an even more accelerated pace of growth,” said Samantak Das, chief economist and head of research, India, JLL.

Buch said SEBI was working closely with many stakeholders for the growth of the REIT, InvIT and the municipal bond market. “Hopefully that will be a big one,” she said.

the-latest-financial-education-event-by-aditya-birla-sun-life-amc-and-the-week-in-calicut

Sat Mar 23 15:07:06 IST 2024

On the last World Cities Day, October 31, 2023, Unesco picked a storied city in northern Kerala as India’s first City of Literature. (On the same day, Gwalior in Madhya Pradesh became a City of Music.) So, Kozhikode was a natural choice for Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC to hold its financial education event for February, powered by THE WEEK.

There could not have been a better venue to start the day than the leafy campus of Providence Women’s College, founded in 1952. The three-member panel in the college was led by K.S. Rao, executive vice-president and head of investor education and distribution development, Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd. The other panellists were Rajesh Krishnamoorthy, non-executive chairman, iFAST India Holdings Pte Ltd; and Sandeep Sundar, then regional head (Kerala), Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd.

At the campus event, Rao focused on Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC’s flagship programme for students―My First Paycheque. He stressed the need to save and invest, and to curb the craving for instant gratification. “Amazon and Flipkart have more festivals than regions and religions put together,” he said. “If you buy on offer, you save 50 per cent; if you don’t buy, you save 100 per cent.”

Rajesh and Shree Kumar Menon, THE WEEK’s resident chief general manager (Mumbai), also addressed the students. Rajesh, a gifted percussionist, closed by leading the students in a chair-thumping signature boom-boom-bah, boom-boom-bah beat that heralds Queen’s ‘We Will Rock You’. It was news to the silver-haired (ok, salt-and-pepper) in the crowd that the song which was released 47 years ago (1977) continues to have pull among the youth. The warm response from the students and the faculty―led by principal Dr Sister Jaseena Joseph―testified to the success of the event.

In the evening, the venue moved to the Hyson Heritage Hotel, and the panel was bolstered by the presence of Uthara Ramakrishnan, the popular Instagram finfluencer and founder of Artha Financial Services.

After Rao’s opening speech, the panel discussed various topics. Uthara spoke on the need for women to be in the know of a family’s financial affairs. “I credit my father for empowering me to reach this position,” she said. “I wish everyone had a father like that.” Among other things, Rao spoke on using mutual funds for pension planning and Sandeep spoke about the ease and options offered by mutual funds. Rajesh elaborated on the need to have wills in place, and to have guardianship documents ready if you have children who are minors.

A word about the audience that filled the hall before time. “If this is an indication of your discipline, financial freedom is a given,” Rao told the audience. An active audience meant that the panel had to wind up early to take questions from the crowd. And, as always, after the event was over and the snack bar was running low, much of the audience stayed back to pull panellists aside for a quiet word and general guidance.

consolidation-is-the-way-ahead-in-the-visual-media-segment-and-corporate-money-is-fuelling-it

Sat Mar 09 15:25:21 IST 2024

In a recent advertisement, Sachin Tendulkar urges the audience to watch the Indian Premier League “only on” JioCinema. Clearly, when the ad was commissioned, the brief was to draw the audience away from Star Sports, which also will telecast the IPL starting on March 22. After the new turn of events, however, it seems neither Tendulkar nor JioCinema would mind people watching on either platform.

When the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) sold the IPL broadcasting rights for the 2023-27 cycle, the rights for digital platforms and television were split into two packages. Star Sports, controlled by Disney, retained the television rights paying Rs23,575 crore and Viacom18 (JioCinema’s parent, owned by Reliance Industries Ltd) bagged the digital rights for Rs20,500 crore. And the two engaged in an advertising war. JioCinema got cricketers M.S. Dhoni and Suryakumar Yadav encouraging fans to watch the matches live from anywhere. Star Sports roped in Virat Kohli to emphasise the experience of watching it on television screens. JioCinema stumped everyone by streaming IPL for free.

The rivalry, however, has become a thing of the past, as Viacom18 and Disney are joining hands to create a 070,000-crore media giant. The media undertaking of Viacom18 will be merged into Star India Private Limited through a court-approved scheme of arrangement. Reliance will invest Rs11,500 crore in the joint venture in which Viacom18 will hold 46.82 per cent, Disney 36.84 per cent and Reliance 16.34 per cent.

The JV will be unparalleled in size and scale on the Indian visual media landscape. The new entity will become the largest broadcaster in the country with 110 television channels in multiple languages, two leading OTT streaming platforms (JioCinema and Disney+ Hotstar) and a viewer base of 750 million across the country. It is estimated that the it will have around 40 per cent market share in advertising and subscription. It will have in its kitty top satellite channels such as Star Plus, Colors, Star Gold, Star Sports and Sports18, and content from the vast library of Walt Disney. JioCinema also has the rights to stream the popular HBO shows.

But the prize catch will be cricket. “BCCI rights (television and digital) are with Viacom18, whereas International Cricket Council (ICC) rights are with Disney-Star. Further, digital rights of IPL are with Viacom18, while television rights are with Disney-Star. In effect, post-merger, the JV will emerge as a cricketing rights powerhouse,” said Jinesh Joshi, analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher.

It will have a significant presence in football broadcast as well with the popular English Premier League on Star Sports and Hotstar, and the Indian Super League and the Spanish LaLiga on Sports18 and JioCinema.

There will be a lot of synergies in the combined entity. “On the OTT side, despite being a late entrant, JioCinema has expanded aggressively, initially by bagging IPL rights and subsequently with the content of NBC Universal and Warner Bros. However, it still lacks a big content library, which has prevented it from building up a sizeable subscriber base. Disney+ Hotstar, on the other hand, has been a market leader in terms of paid subscribers. With this merger, JioCinema can take advantage of Hotstar’s superior technology,” said Pulkit Chawla, analyst at Emkay Global Financial Services.

There will be some cross-leveraging beyond the segment as well. RIL’s Jio is the largest player in the telecom space and the company could make use of this base to offer bundled plans.

The merger comes at a time when streaming platforms are seriously thinking about tweaking their subscription-based model in favour of advertising supported video on demand (AVOD). “In the OTT segment, 2023 saw subscription video on demand (SVOD) models take a bit of a backseat, with premium sports available for free across almost all platforms,” said Vibhor Gauba, associate partner, KPMG in India. “We believe that 2024 will continue to see the same phenomenon and hence SVOD monetisation is likely to be under pressure. Also, consumption is likely to see a robust growth, with premium sports properties primed to gain from advertisement/AVOD spends on digital.”

Two other major players, Zee Entertainment and Sony Pictures Network, were also in an advanced stage of a merger but it was called off by Sony. The deal had received most approvals, including from shareholders and the Competition Commission of India. Sony has filed a case in Singapore Arbitration Centre seeking compensation from Zee for not meeting the criteria for the merger, and Zee has approached the National Company Law Tribunal in a bid to get the merger deal enforced. For either party, the termination of the deal is a setback as they will have to take on the might of the combined strength of Disney and Viacom.

A merger between Zee and Sony could have created an entertainment behemoth with 75 channels, and Sony was planning to infuse $1.5 billion in the merged entity, which could have been utilised for content acquisition. This could have been a strong competitor to the Reliance-Disney JV.

Zee’s managing director Punit Goenka, however, remains upbeat on the network’s prospects. He said his company’s intrinsic value remained intact, and he had chalked out a structured plan to bring back its margins to industry-beating levels. “How I envisage taking the company forward in the coming quarters is centred on three key aspects. The first is frugality, the second is optimisation, and the third, the most important, is sharp focus on quality content,” said Goenka.

But analysts are concerned. “Though Zee is actively implementing measures to revive the business and efficiently run business operations as a stand-alone entity, concerns around weak financial positioning, corporate governance, and litigation outcomes continue to remain,” said Chirag Maroo, research analyst at Keynote Capital.

The focus of major broadcasters on OTT comes as no surprise―it is where the future is. According to the consulting firm PwC, India’s OTT revenue is expected to grow at a 14.32 per cent compounded annual rate to Rs3.51 lakh crore by 2027. It was only Rs1.80 lakh crore in 2022.

Content in regional languages has undoubtedly been a big driver of OTT growth. It is estimated that more than half of the movies on OTT platforms are regional titles. Similarly, regional content accounts for nearly half of the original content on OTT. According to PwC, “OTT video will continue to get its boost from regional play.”

OTT has also given companies a platform to expand their offerings in sports. Earlier, cricket and the major events in football, hockey and tennis accounted for bulk of sports coverage. But, today, companies have leveraged OTT to drive sports broadcasting in e-sports, kabbadi, basketball and volleyball, in addition to deepening the coverage in existing sports programming.

Not surprisingly, advertisers are also looking at digital marketing in a big way, with television advertising seeing a muted growth. As per an estimate of FICCI and EY, entertainment OTT platforms will generate around Rs6,000 crore of advertising by 2025.

Big companies are better positioned than the smaller ones to benefit from this booming market, as they could exercise significant bargaining power with advertisers and viewers. “Even the subscription business will get a fillip as bouquets [of channels] will be created around sports,” said Joshi of Prabhudas Lilladher. “Further, they may consider putting sports content behind paywall and raise subscription prices for OTT packs as well.”

Clearly, consolidation is the way ahead in the segment. “Consolidation should happen in the industry,” said Chawla. “Small individual players cannot take on Reliance and Disney. So, it becomes necessary for the smaller players to get together.”

Infusion of corporate money has also accelerated the consolidation. Adani Group took big media bets with its AMG Media Networks acquiring news broadcaster NDTV in 2022 . It has started expanding to regional languages. In December 2023, Adani Enterprises acquired a majority stake in the news agency IANS. It also controls Quintillion Business Media. “At the moment, the focus is to consolidate, expand the offerings across platforms and grow these businesses to become a preferred news destination for Indians in India and for a global audience,” said a spokesperson for AMG Media Networks.

Will there be an Adani vs Ambani battle in the entertainment broadcasting space, too? Will Zee and Sony shake hands again or will a new suitor emerge? Will OTT trump television as 5G gains traction? The broadcasting space has all the ingredients of a gripping soap opera.

itc-hit-the-ground-running-when-the-government-s-millets-initiative-took-off

Fri Feb 16 15:26:10 IST 2024

BUSINESSMAN, agriculture innovator, professional entrepreneur, social reformer. The last one is one epithet S. Sivakumar, head of ITC's agri-business division, may do a double-take on, but it is certainly true.

In the early 2000s, ITC's e-Choupal empowered lakhs of farmers through digitisation. An internet kiosk installed in select villages provided valuable information on anything from weather conditions for farming to procurement price at various mandis. While it became a much feted bridge between technology and the farming community, few actually know that it almost came unstuck because of one stark Indian reality―caste.

Initially, the internet kiosk was installed in the house of a Choupal sanchalak, a coordinator selected by the company, in each village. That sparked off the first roadblock―many villagers complained that at least two kiosks should be provided, for each of the two dominant castes in the area.

After much deliberation, the company put its foot down. “Our belief was that we were building an economic institution, and it should be agnostic to social and political aspects,” said Sivakumar. “We said we would follow the screening parameters for an ideal sanchalak, and then see if other [castes] would use it or not.”

While those not from the same caste as the sanchalak kept away during the following sowing and harvest season, the differences slowly started to dissolve by the second and third seasons, as the economic benefits of getting on the platform became evident to the villagers.

“First, farmers sent their sons to ask about prices; then by next season, it seemed as if the caste differences became secondary. I think social equity was an indirect benefit which came through because of this economic primacy. So long as the value was demonstrated, the other issues took a back seat,” said Sivakumar.

Another pleasant outcome of e-Choupal was women empowerment. Even in the conservative villages of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, women started participating “a lot more, in terms of decision-making on when and where to sell.” They also started asking about additional source of livelihood for women, beyond agriculture. This led to ventures like incense sticks.

Using the internet and technology to further progress, be it in a boardroom or on a farm, may today sound so commonplace. But e-Choupal pioneered it in more ways than one, as does its post-millennial avatar, ITC MAARS (Metamarket for Advanced Agriculture and Rural Services). But for Sivakumar, who is on to his fourth decade at ITC, it has always been about staying ahead of the curve and innovating to make that decisive impact.

Nothing exemplified this better than how the company hit the ground running when the government’s millets initiative took off, with the UN and its Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) declaring 2023 as the ‘International Year of Millets’. Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared that India was “honoured to be at the forefront of popularising millets”, while FAO Director General Qu Dongyu pointed out how millets can “empower smallholder farmers, achieve sustainable development, eliminate hunger, adapt to climate change, promote biodiversity, and transform agri-food systems”.

Not to forget its superfood benefits. “Bajra boasts gut-friendly fibre and kodu millet aides in cholesterol control. Ragi provides vital calcium and fibre, which is particularly beneficial for new mothers. Millets are naturally anti-acidic, rich in niacin, are gluten-free and low on the glycaemic index,” said nutritionist Suman Agarwal.

Sivakumar already knew that. While the data tracking division of ITC had noticed the consumer trend towards wellness, the agribusiness and its push for climate-smart agriculture had hit upon millet cultivation as a panacea for many ills plaguing the system―their cultivation consumed less water, and the crops were more climate resilient, hence providing high productivity. Also, a good chunk of existing millet crops were going off as animal feed, for malting or for the farmer’s own consumption at home, with only a small portion going out into the market.

In fact, Aashirvaad, ITC's atta brand, had come up with a millet-based variant even before the UN announcement. But there was an impediment―most consumers did not know what to do with it.

“We realised the consumer was used to rice and wheat, but did not know what to do with kodo and bajra and all that,” said Sivakumar. “Even simple things like making a (millet) roti is a complex process because there is not enough gluten to roll them into proper rotis.”

Entered ITC’s other divisions. While chefs from its hotels (as well as many other leading star hotels in the country) whipped up recipes incorporating millets, the consumer foods division unleashed a campaign to raise awareness, releasing millet-based products from biscuits and noodles to poha and even chocolates. “The government provided both the highway and the fuel. And so we built the right car, and hopefully it will scale,” said Sivakumar. The crowning glory was when ITC was enlisted as the caterer to the world leaders at the G20 Summit at Delhi’s Bharat Mandapam last year, where it unleashed an array of millet-based haute cuisine.

“The vectors of growth will happen slowly,” said Sivakumar. “If you look at the total consumption of all grains to that of millets, millets is still a small fraction. (But) consumers who are using millets have adapted to it. But what it used to be versus what it is now, it has grown manifold.”

The ITC agribusiness team is already on to its future forward ventures. “In terms of value-added products, we are working on medicinal and aromatic plants that are major ingredients in nutraceuticals,” said Sivakumar. Focus now is on scientific segregation of properties and efficacies of traditional Indian formulations, the various herbs and spices, and also, with a backend traceable value chain, all cultivated sustainably using climate smart agriculture methods.

unveiling-the-dynamics-of-large-and-mid-cap-category

Sat Feb 03 12:33:21 IST 2024

IN THE VAST and ever-evolving realm of investment opportunities, investors are often presented with a spectrum of choices. Among these, the large- and mid-cap category stands out as a nuanced and strategic option, offering a blend of stability and growth.

Large-cap: The pillar of stability

Large-cap, short for large capitalisation, are companies that form the top 100 companies in the average market capitalisation. The list for the same is published on the AMFI website every six months. Market capitalisation is calculated by multiplying the company’s current stock price by the total number of outstanding shares. These companies are often industry leaders, characterised by their stability, established market presence and significant market share.

Investing in large-cap stocks provides a degree of stability that appeals to risk-averse investors. These companies are generally well-established, with a proven track record of weathering economic downturns. They often also have a global presence, diversified revenue streams and the financial strength to withstand market fluctuations.

Mid-cap: The sweet spot of growth

Mid-capitalisation companies are the 101 to 250 of the largest companies on the stock exchange. Mid-cap stocks represent a diverse group of companies that have outgrown their small-cap status but are still in the growth phase.

Mid-cap stocks are often seen as the sweet spot for growth-oriented investors. These companies, while not as established as their large-cap counterparts, have the potential for substantial expansion. They are agile, responsive to market trends and have the capacity to capitalise on emerging opportunities.

The power of combination

The large- and mid-cap category is a strategic fusion of both large-cap and mid-cap stocks. Herein, the fund manager must maintain large-cap and mid-cap exposure at a minimum of 35 per cent each.

In times of economic uncertainty or market downturns, large-cap stocks act as a stabilising force. Meanwhile, mid-cap stocks contribute to the portfolio’s overall growth potential, ensuring that investors are not solely reliant on established giants but are also positioned to benefit from the dynamism of mid-sized, high-potential companies.

Why you should invest in large- and mid-cap

The large- and mid-cap category caters to a broad spectrum of investors, each with distinct preferences and risk appetites. For example, investors enthusiastic about diversifying their portfolios across market caps and sectors can leverage the large- and mid-cap categories to achieve a well-rounded mix.

Next, investing in this category can help an investor ride out market cycles, capitalising on both stability and growth over an extended period. However, the caveat here is that these investments should be made at least with an investment horizon of five-plus years.

Furthermore, this category offers a comprehensive solution that caters to a diverse range of long-term investment objectives such as creating a corpus for retirement, child’s education or marriage.

Taxation

When you decide to redeem the units of your large- and mid-cap fund, you realise that capital gains are subject to taxation. The applicable tax rate, however, hinges on the duration of your investment in the fund, commonly referred to as the holding period. Capital gains accrued during a holding period of less than one year are termed short-term capital gains (STCG) and are subject to a tax rate of 15 per cent.

Conversely, capital gains acquired from a holding period exceeding a year fall under long-term capital gains (LTCG). As per the current regulations, gains surpassing Rs1 lakh incur a tax of 10 per cent without any benefit from indexation.

There are 26 offerings with a total asset under management of Rs1.75 lakh crore in this category. Within these, one of the consistent performers with over two decades of track record is ICICI Prudential Large & Midcap Fund. Over the last three years, the fund has delivered returns of 20.56 per cent and 27.66 per cent compared to its benchmark, which delivered 19.92 per cent and 23.34 per cent.

Deepesh Mehta is founder, Happy Investor Finserv LLP

nmdc-chairman-and-managing-director-amitava-mukherjee-interview

Sat Feb 03 11:36:04 IST 2024

Interview/ Amitava Mukherjee, chairman and managing director (additional charge), National Mineral Development Corporation

National Mineral Development Corporation, India’s largest iron ore producer, has transitioned itself into a much stronger entity in the recent times with a busy order book, robust results and a dream run on the stock markets. Amitava Mukherjee, NMDC’s chairman, is not only looking to diversify its portfolio by mining other minerals from overseas mines but also working towards supplying lithium in India. He shares NMDC’s vision, policies and strategy in an interview. Excerpts:

Q \ What are NMDC’s growth targets?

A \ This financial year, our guidance has been around 47 million metric tonnes to 49 million metric tonnes (iron ore production). Now with the delay in getting the approvals for the Kumaraswamy iron ore mine in Karnataka, realistically it would be lower. We were targeting 50. But there was also a delay in the commissioning of our fifth line in Bacheli. We were expecting it to be commissioned in August. In the next financial year, we should be able to do 53 million metric tonnes.

Q \ Between April and November 2023, your production of iron ore went up by 17 per cent.

A \ Two or three factors led to it. A major reason was the planning by our team. Second, we have made huge investments in machineries. Last year we bought 11 dumpers. We have a five-year equipment replacement policy. We are taking advance action by two years now, so anything that has to be replaced in 2026 will be ordered now because of the cycle time. In the earlier process, we would have placed the order only in 2026. Also, one of our major mines that was doing only two shifts is doing three now with the additional usage of dumpers.

Q \ The share price of NMDC has doubled since last August.

A \ I think our production and dispatch mechanisms were one of the major reasons. We have also been open to the market about our future plans―that we are completely reorienting our energy, overhauling our dispatch systems and our marketing strategies as well. In the long run, we do not wish to dispatch from the minehead because there are essential physical constraints there. So we want to make blending hubs and dispatch yards. The market can see how we are changing ourselves and now they are confident that we will be able to execute projects at projected timelines. We talk to investors and analysts every three months, so they are aware of what we plan to do in the next five or six years. Generally, the steel industry is upbeat, looking at the way capital expenditure is being planned and the way expansion is happening. Also, our customers are increasing.

Q \ Do you think the demerger from NMDC Steel has proven to be beneficial to NMDC?

A \ Yes. The value unlock of the NMDC share has happened. When the steel plants were in our books, we did not get any traction out of it in the share prices. So it was a free carry that way. The market was also complaining about that. Once the demerger happened, the value got released.

Q \ What are the developments in the field of coal and gold mining?

A \ We have decided to surrender the gold mine we had in India because the revenues did not justify the investments. It was a conscious decision to not start operations of the Chigargunta-Bisanatham gold mine. But that doesn’t mean we won’t do gold mining. In fact, of the seven or eight minerals that we want to diversify, gold is one. We are mining gold in Australia in a small mine because we wanted to gain some mining experience in that country. We have a lot of other gold mining terrains across the mine that we have started. Now we are making a plan for accelerated exploration of all those five or six other terrains. So if you get five to six mines to be explored fast and if we can hopefully make two or three operational, our portfolio of gold would be substantial. Right now it is minimal.

Coking coal is a matter of interest. We have a coking coal terrain which has been given to us on reservation. We are looking at coking coal even outside India. The demand for coking coal in India will last for at least another 60 to 200 years because of the blast furnaces that are coming back. We have looked at a mine in Indonesia. We do not want virgin mines and we want to invest in producing mines. If you take a virgin one, it takes around 12 years to develop it. As far as coking coal is concerned, because the requirement is immediate, wasting 12 years on exploration and development of the mine is illogical.

Q \ Is NMDC in the race to produce lithium?

A \ If things go right, and I am saying this with a big disclaimer, then I am sure that NMDC would be the first company to get lithium into India. We are talking to various people who have mines in Australia and Africa, trying to get into some sort of an understanding with them, some sort of an equity participation. It is the same coking coal route where you have to go in for some of the working mines or just about-to-start working mine. Take some stakes there, have some off-take agreement, and do some exploration in virgin terrains. We have a site in Australia where we are in a partnership with the very big mining company, Hancock Perspective. It is called handbrino. With them we have a magnetite project on the huge terrain, Mount Bevan, and traces of lithium might be from there. We are looking at Africa, too, but those are essentially virgin mines. So that is going to take some time. But in Australia, we are talking to a couple of miners who have either working mines or mines that can start to work and this will be our immediate target.

Q \ What are the employee-friendly measures being implemented by NMDC?

A \ We maintain regular communication with the workers and unions. When I speak to them, my standard line is that whatever we have done in the past 66 years, we need to do in six years. We have been telling our employees that we have reached from zero to 45 million tonnes in 66 years, and in another six years, we have to go from 50 to 100. Now, we are mining outside India. We are doing a lot of things that we have not done in 66 years. This message has gone to them and to motivate the employees, we have introduced awards to recognise their extraordinary work. We have made certain policy changes. For example, now dependent daughters and dependent sisters of employees are eligible to get medical benefits. We are also providing housing to them. I believe that the management is extremely worker-friendly and that is why our employees respond to our call.

sabyasachi-mukherjee-has-built-indias-biggest-luxury-brand

Sat Jan 11 13:25:50 IST 2025

I’m going to tell you a story no more than five people in the Indian fashion industry know. In 2015, as part of Lakme Fashion Week’s advisory board, I had suggested keeping the opening show for a Mumbai designer instead of one of the celebrity names from Delhi. These were the days when Lakme and Fashion Design Council of India (FDCI) had split, and the industry was cleaved into two. A month before the show, the Mumbai designer callously called saying he wanted to opt out. The organisers were in a fix. Who would they find to create 50 spectacular garments in 30 days and put together a theatrical show? They called Sabyasachi Mukherjee.

Those days the fashion week would offer a designer Rs25 lakh to put together the show. Mukherjee added Rs40 lakh of his own, and gave Mumbai the most beautiful fashion show it had ever seen. The old Richardson & Cruddas foundry―where it was held―was decorated like a luxurious red-gold Mughal canopy with a 200-foot runway (a regular size is 50 feet), had antique chairs for seats, and used a drone camera for the first time.

This generosity is unarguably what has made him India’s most successful luxury brand today, going by revenue alone. To call Mukherjee just a designer is a bit of a short-change; he has successfully annexed newer businesses such as jewellery, leather goods, and home interiors. His company will have a turnover of Rs500 crore this year, his 25th year in the business.

I would even say if you need to understand how to create a fine luxury business, out of India or anywhere in the world, look at Sabyasachi. If you need to grasp how magnificent India’s fashion industry is, and how gorgeous and artistic its retail environment can be, look at Sabyasachi.

To understand Mukherjee’s success is to also understand a bit of India’s history, geography, and economics. A young man from Kolkata took the Indian fashion scene by storm right from his debut year, and went on to become the industry’s template. Everything Mukherjee does, the others follow: from his bridal-wear, photo-shoots, jewellery and handbags, to massive social media spends and selling stake to corporate houses. Talking to the man himself is like getting a business school education.

The numbers are mind-boggling if you consider that his was a self-owned business (he owned 97 per cent and his father owned 3 per cent) until 2021, when Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Limited (ABFRL) purchased 51 per cent of his business for a whopping Rs398 crore. This means, according to EBITDA calculations, his turnover was roughly at Rs275 crore in 2020.

Mukherjee’s revenue from jewellery was Rs150-175 crore last year, with handbag sales alone just above Rs60 crore (more than most big designers’ annual turnover). The rest is from his clothing line. “My next 25 years will be about building the business globally,” he says. “The dream is to become a $2 billion brand by 2030. That’s a billion with a B. And I am being conservative.”

★★★★

It took three months after he agreed to this interview to finally sit down at his Mumbai flagship. It is a four-storey behemoth, a British neoclassical building in the city’s historic Horniman Circle. The pin code is 01; it marks the city’s oldest centre. He has Hermes and Christian Louboutin for neighbours.

Mukherjee has just arrived from New York, after wowing the American audience with his ready-to-wear debut at Bergdorf Goodman, the shiny luxury departmental store that dominates the city’s Fifth Avenue. He has been selling jewellery here for three years now, modern enough to appeal to the spoilt-for-choice American customer.

New York’s fashion grapevine is abuzz that Sabyasachi outsold Chanel one November day at Bergdorf, with sales of over $1 million. “I’m going to refute the Chanel gossip, but I’ll tell you it isn’t the first time we have made a million dollars at Bergdorf,” he says. “Our first million-a-day was three years ago. It was a big deal. In India, I don’t have to move too many muscles to move a mountain, but in the west I’m at the bottom of the table. They couldn’t even pronounce my name.”

According to Linda Fargo, senior vice president, Women’s Fashion, and director of Store Presentation at Bergdorf, Mukherjee’s brilliance knows no bounds. “It was on a trip to India several years ago that I discovered the world of Sabyasachi, where opulence, craftsmanship and sublime taste intersect, and knew instinctively that this was something rare,” she says. “It’s an honour to count him as a collaborator and friend.”

Mukherjee opened his own boutique, a celebrated maximalist destination, on Manhattan’s Christopher Street in 2022. Despite selling at London’s Selfridges and Browns in his early years, opening a shop in New York was a mission. “Twenty per cent of my business was already coming from America. I wanted to have more control over how India was being showcased. I knew if I built a store like the ones in Mumbai or Delhi, Indians from all over America would come to push me forward. I also wanted to show the west the art of retail,” he smiles. “How do you sell luxury without showing your might? I wanted to build the best store in New York.” The American press lapped it up.

Mukherjee stopped doing fashion weeks in India or abroad several years ago. But every top store began wooing him. When Saks Fifth Avenue opened in Los Angeles in 2023, he was given the top floor with only Chanel as his neighbour, even though it was a risk and Roopal Patel, senior vice president, Saks, was worried as it was a week to the Oscars. “We did close to $2 million with them,” says Mukherjee. “When you build a business with integrity, the world will come to find you. I’m a hard negotiator. When I negotiate with the west, I do it on behalf of India.”

Patel says that India is at the heart of everything Mukherjee does. “You see his deep love for India in everything he creates, from his exquisite embroideries to the unique craftsmanship in his saris and jewellery,” she says. “He has a master painter’s sense of colour, and the attention to detail when you step into one of his stores transports you to another world. It has been incredible to see Sabyasachi become part of the global fashion scene over the past 25 years.”

For his 25th anniversary celebrations in Mumbai, Mukherjee is flying down his top customers and the international press in a fashion show that will rival Dior’s show at the Gateway of India in 2023. “I was among the first ones to jump on to social media, but now I find that canvas too small,” he says. “It is important for us to be closer to the customer. The celebration will be a very India-proud show, almost like an interface between the east and the west.”

Talking to Mukherjee about his journey is a little bit like being in F. Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsby, where you are Nick Carraway and the designer is the mysterious millionaire with a life of adventure and serendipity. “In Standard 4, I was asked by my drama teacher to write a play based on Snow White and the Seven Dwarves,” he says. “I wrote it with lights, costumes, and set design. She asked me to be the play’s director, and allowed me to work with dresses, makeup, sets, and music. I knew then I would be doing some ground-shifting in India in the arts. In a way, you know, I am destiny’s child.”

He goes on: “I also pick up clues from the universe. I think success comes to those who can read the signs―whether it is shifting consumer behaviour, or a certain change in politics, or a certain movie that’s shaping the way people are going to dress, or who is the big musician now. The most successful designers are those who catch the zeitgeist. Chanel and Yves Saint Laurent mirrored the emergence of society even before society began to emerge. I think that has been my gift, too.”

Mukherjee shies from calling himself a great businessman. “People don’t need another product,” he says. “Their consumption depends on what they want to achieve. Sometimes it is not even a product, but a value system.” Offering an example, he says, “We make it very tough for a consumer to shop with us. We never go on sale. We don’t customise. People probably have to give up a little bit of their identity to imbibe our brand. And we only accept white money. People buy from us because they admire our values. You can have the greatest product, but if you don’t have the greatest policies you are only selling a commodity, you are not selling luxury.”

He is right. Even brands like Chanel, Goyard and Hermes have very strict codes about what you can buy and under what conditions. “They have financial and manufacturing discipline,” he explains.

★★★★

Designers in India traditionally came from Delhi where NIFT, the first fashion school, opened, or then Mumbai, the big, bad land of Bollywood. Kolkata is small, far-off, and has no interest in fashion, thanks to its reverence for handloom textiles. It makes the finest cotton in the world―the jamdani. And several other types of saris like Tangails, Balucharis, Nilambaris, and the humble Dhaniakhalis that West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee flaunts regularly. It is ironic that it gave India its biggest luxury label.

All of Mukherjee’s storytelling is based on his beloved “Calcutta”. “Calcutta was the British capital, and for the longest time, it was a city that had the biggest thought leaders, whether they were in politics, policy, literature, arts, or filmmaking,” he says. “Think of Satyajit Ray and Rabindranath Tagore. All of them have contributed to building India. So, why not fashion? Calcutta has its own ecosystem, like Antwerp that produced Dries Van Noten and Ann Demeulemeester.” Mukherjee has long been a follower of the deconstructionist Van Noten, inspired by his eccentric layering. For this interview, he wore trousers by Van Noten with one of his own sleeveless jackets.

“What distinguished Sabyasachi is his understanding of combining various techniques and crafts in a single piece. This, and his understanding of what the market desires, especially the contemporary bride, are unparalleled. He is the architect of modern India,” says Sunil Sethi, chairman, FDCI.

Mukherjee’s is most certainly an India story. His clothes and jewellery pay the finest homage to India’s artisanal crafts, and he sees his company as an Indian legacy brand. He always says he isn’t working for himself, he is working for India.

Is he trying to restore India to its rightful place as a luxury superpower? “My grandmother was a refugee from Bangladesh. She had five children without ever getting married,” he says, in Gatsby tone again. “She was progressive but had the angst of a refugee and understood the dignity in identity. We all know what the British and multiple invasions have done to India. When people destabilise your country and your culture, they destabilise your confidence. When your confidence gets destabilised, your economy breaks down.”

This is why his stores are created like palaces, brimming with chandeliers, luxurious carpets, wall textiles, art and antiques. “They are living museums,” he says. “They exist to tell every Indian not to forget where we come from or how great India is.”

Mukherjee is most certainly at the right place at the right time. There is a wave of cultural nationalism now with India being counted among the world’s largest economies. A growing number of young Indians proudly wear homegrown brands in support and showmanship. Like Zerodha’s Nikhil Kamath, who in a podcast with actor Ranbir Kapoor, stated he prefers wearing Indian labels. “This is why we started making accessories,” explains Mukherjee. “I think accessories became a true marker of how much people are willing to punt on you. Sporting western brands used to be a mark of social status once. But when I saw Natasha Poonawalla carrying one of my handbags to meet Prince Charles at the Buckingham Palace in 2020, I realised I needed to grow my accessory business. And that we have a beautiful logo.” Mukherjee has since removed his first name as his insignia; he uses the now instantly recognisable Bengal Tiger motif.

During the pandemic, actor Kareena Kapoor Khan and I had initiated a fashion fundraiser for weavers called ‘Baradari’. Designers would donate clothes they couldn’t sell in the lockdown and the sales proceeds would be given to artisans. But Mukherjee insisted on donating two of his signature handbags―the Calcutta Sling and the Nani Bucket. He said he had a six-month wait list for his handbags, and they would be grabbed. Both purses sold within three minutes of opening the sale.

“The handbags are made in my atelier in Kolkata, but with the intervention of the finest craftsmen in Italy and France,” he says. “Our hardware is not Zamac (an alloy) but brass, and plated with 1 to 2 micron gold. These are international standards in building an accessory brand. Indians love wearing Indian clothes and jewellery. But when they start buying handbags from an Indian brand, you know the winds are changing.”

Mukherjee’s confidence is not braggadocio. In the 25 years I have known him, he has accomplished all he set eyes on. When he said he was going to be India’s greatest luxury brand, and opted out of an offer that LVMH’s L Capital made him a decade ago, he did it on his own steam. When he launched his jewellery saying he wanted to be India’s Cartier, he did it within a year. He had told me then that he made more money selling jewellery in one year than he did in a decade of fashion.

“The entire jewellery industry was worried they would have to pack up shop since I had done such revolutionary work with bridal-wear,” he says. “A big nexus of jewellers began to say that my price was too high and quality was low grade. But we are on par with everyone else, and our repeat customers prove that our quality is good. Indians are very intelligent shoppers, you can’t fool them. I have grown into a business of consequence because I give value to my customers. They know that wearing Sabyasachi means they are on par with international brands.”

Ashish Dikshit, managing director, ABFRL, says that their investment in Sabyasachi reflects their belief that the brand is uniquely positioned to build the first truly global luxury brand from India. “This requires a systematic and long-term approach to investing in brand building, category extension, international expansion as well as deepening its organisational capabilities, and we are quite committed to that journey,” he says. “The brand is also one of the most profitable businesses in our portfolio and is an important part of our value creation journey.”

Sethi adds that Mukherjee removing himself from the public eye takes away accessibility, but “makes him more sought after”.

★★★★

There are 1,200 people employed with Sabyasachi Couture. “We also support a lot of artisans across India, and now the world,” says the designer. “We work with Mongolia for our cashmere, Peru for our alpaca, France for tweeds and Scotland for tartan and wool. These are all artisanal companies which make important couture fabrication for the biggest brands in the world. They are excited to partner with us. There is this person in Prato, Italy, from whom I wanted to source boiled wool (a type of cloth from there). He would not supply it to me until I visited his farm and had a meal with his family. Then he flew down to India to see what we do. Finally he agreed, saying he considered me to be a designer of integrity. These are small-batch suppliers, they consider themselves artists. I think we are now creating a great synthesis in craft between India and the world. If we want to be a global brand, we need to include global players.”

He sees India as the biggest hub for craft. “When you look at Anamika Khanna, Rahul Mishra, Raw Mango or Swati & Sunaina, you see they have maintained craft at its highest level,” he says. “You will certainly see exploitation of craftsmen at the lower end of the market, but at the upper end the communities are thriving. If you want your work to succeed at an international level, you have to level the playing field. You see, now there is a direct link to the consumer. A crafts person has enough incentive to set up his own business on digital portals like Swadesh. I want to start a Sabyasachi Universe of Saris, too, to help craft communities. What sets India apart is its soft power. When I speak to different business schools abroad, I tell them not to mistake India for a third-world country, we are a first-world civilisation. Luxury will return to India as it originated with us. Our crafts people will be the new IT people. There’s always a short-term derailment, but my middle name is ‘long term’.”

Among the greatest contradictions is that even though Mukherjee was among the pioneers in social media, his website is mere months old and sells no products. “I find it difficult to understand why someone would actually want to buy off the internet, there is so much tactile beauty in a product,” he says. “When my bridal business became big, it developed a shadow market. Even my handbags have an accessories market which is 500 times the size of my own market. I could have sought franchisees, but my goal was never quick money. Ecommerce is great for quick services like food or supplies, but not luxury. I’m not saying I’ll never do ecommerce; maybe for more standardised products like beauty, sunglasses and footwear. Right now I am obsessed with building legacy, but the internet generation can’t remember what happened even 20 years ago. This is why I am so keen on building beautiful stores. We are such a sensory brand, we want people to fully engage with us, to understand our intricacies. Sales can happen later.”

According to Nina Garcia, editor-in-chief, Elle USA, Mukherjee has dreamed up a new vision of luxury. “Stepping into his store in the West Village is like being transported to another world where no fashion fantasy is out of reach,” she says. “His designs are as much high art as they are high fashion. No one does maximalism quite like Sabyasachi.”

Mukherjee’s penchant for intangible experiences is seen at his launches too. His fashion shows are historic events. He is known to fly down his premier customers across cities, host them in luxury hotels, entertain them with sit-down dinners with Dom Perignon and Chateauneuf-du-Pape, and Shubha Mudgal’s private concerts. His now-legendary grazing table (styled by top wedding planner Devika Narain) has cakes flown in from England and caviar from Russia.

Does his new investor Kumar Mangalam Birla ever tell him it’s a bit much? “He doesn’t say much but he thinks deep,” Mukherjee reveals. “He has a lot of respect for and trust in me. The only question he asks is whether I am convinced. I think it takes great trust to build great partnerships.”

Another fan of Mukherjee’s exuberance is Amit Syngle, MD and CEO of Asian Paints. Mukherjee has been designing a line, Sabyasachi for Nilaya, for the paint company since 2015, for which he receives 040 crore a year. “I’ve built a damn good business with Asian Paints,” he says. “It’s an equitable partnership that’s given them a lot of recognition. Amit Syngle is a visionary. I think I have pushed him to make Nilaya larger than life. They have astounding sales.”

Not all his collaborations are about money, Mukherjee insists. “Sometimes I have not taken a fee to be able to do bigger advertising around it,” he says. “When I do collaborations, I do it for the country, too.” He gives the example of working with L’Oreal and Aishwarya Rai Bachchan. He wanted them to feature her in a sari in front of the Eiffel Tower. They said their ambassadors don’t wear saris. But he insisted on it if they wanted to work with India’s biggest designer.

Even when retail behemoth H&M announced Mukherjee to be the first Indian designer to design a capsule line for them in 2021, he had conditions. Fifty per cent of the collection would be made in India, use Indian designs (tongue tightly in cheek, he would make one inspired by chintz, which Europe had taken from India and passed off as its own), and finally, a sari would be part of it. It was the only time H&M had sold a sari.

What has Mukherjee done with his Rs398 crore all-cash investment from ABFRL? “I was struggling with the fact that I’ve built something this large. I needed to think about what would happen to the brand after me,” he says. “I don’t say ‘my brand’, or ‘I am Sabyasachi’. There are a lot of us.”

ABFRL has given him the back-end operations a business of this scale would require, like a CFO and an HR system. “ABFRL does blood donation camps and eye tests, provides life insurance for employees and medical insurance even for their families,” says Mukherjee. “That’s the beautiful thing about working with a good corporation. I consider them to be nation builders. I did things the way a family-run business would, a little haphazardly.”

Dikshit chronicles Mukherjee’s four years since the investment. “The brand has grown significantly in the last few years along multiple dimensions by doubling its revenue, foraying into a large international market, expanding its presence beyond apparel through category extension and building a robust infrastructure for sustained brand growth,” he says. “The accessory business is growing rapidly, while Sabyasachi jewellery is now increasingly seen as an important emerging global player. The Mumbai flagship store is often counted amongst the best stores in the world. The brand has not only re-established its preeminent position as India’s most important luxury brand, it has also created multiple new long-term growth platforms in line with its vision.”

Mukherjee says he decides on the spends and sits in on every meeting, whether it is finance, HR, or infrastructure. Not that he has not paid a price for building this business. He barely has a personal life or a long-term partner. He travels only for work. He chooses not to have children even as a single man. “I started working when I was 14. I became a parent to my parents and my sister when I was 20,” he says. “Eventually a master tailor came along, a finishing girl came along, now a CFO and CHRO come along, too. But on my birthdays, when I am hiding in private, every department cuts a cake and sends me a video [of them] singing the birthday song for me. That’s a real family,” he smiles. “I’m not territorial, I even choose to live on rent. But I’ll tell you this: even if I had a child, I would give my company to someone who deserves it.”

manmohan-singh-leadership-diplomatic-achievements-dedication

Sat Jan 04 17:27:51 IST 2025

Reams have been written about Dr Manmohan Singh’s humility, intellect and self-effacing personality since his passing in the last week of 2024. A statesman who preferred quiet action over flamboyant rhetoric, Singh’s leadership style stood in stark contrast to the grandstanding often associated with political figures. As a result, this strong personal trait was misunderstood and misinterpreted by many as an inherent weakness in contemporary politics and diplomacy, where leaders often seek to achieve an imaginary ‘halo’ even while performing mundane duties as heads of government or state. In contrast, Singh seldom courted personal glory or self-aggrandisement. There existed an impenetrable wall between his personal and public life, which led to many personal sacrifices during his tenure.

For 10 long years, the media and commentators speculated whether Singh would be able to visit his birthplace in Gah, now in Pakistan. Yet, throughout his tenure, he insisted that he wished to establish amicable relations with Pakistan only after “measurable actions” by our neighbour to control terrorist activities originating from its soil. During his final visit to the United Nations General Assembly in September 2013, he held a meeting on the sidelines with the newly elected prime minister of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif.

Whenever the two met, they conversed in Punjabi, both being from the same region of Pakistan. After the official pleasantries and business discussions, Sharif invited Singh to Pakistan and, for good measure, offered several personal incentives: he suggested Singh could inaugurate a school or a college named after him and establish a hospital in Gah to honour his memory. Towards the end, Sharif slipped into his inimitable Punjabi style, saying, “You can also visit Nankana Sahib Gurdwara, the birthplace of Guru Nanak and a revered shrine of the Sikh community.” Singh, without a moment’s hesitation, replied, “Don’t bring my religion into this.”

The officials in the delegation, who later recounted this interaction to me in detail, realised at that point that this visit would never take place. Rebuffed, Sharif went on to criticise Singh in a subsequent interaction with the press, remarks that were eagerly picked up by the media in both countries. This crucial exchange between the two prime ministers never saw the light of day, and with it, hopes of Singh visiting Gah vanished. His message was clear: he could be engaged only as a representative of the people of India, not as a member of any community or due to his ties to his birthplace.

In an era where political discourse is often dominated by assertiveness and self-aggrandisement, Singh’s self-effacing personality serves as a reminder of the power of humility and quiet determination. His legacy is not only one of economic and diplomatic achievements, but also of a leadership style rooted in dignity, respect and unwavering dedication to the nation.

At the end of his second term, the communications team at the Prime Minister’s Office proposed a booklet on the United Progressive Alliance’s “Ten Years of Growth and Progress”, a definitive document on a decade that witnessed India achieve unprecedented inclusive growth in the democratic developing world. Among the listed achievements were: lifting more than 26 crore people out of poverty, an average decadal GDP growth of nearly 8 per cent, a near tripling of per capita income over 10 years, employment provided to 49 million families under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, quadrupling of Employees’ Pension Fund accounts, and the issuance of 51 crore Aadhaar cards within four years. It was a record any leader or administrator would take pride in at the end of their tenure. When the booklet’s first draft was presented to him, Singh looked at it rather reluctantly and made only one observation: “Is it necessary to put my photograph on the cover?”

Despite his towering achievements, Singh remained a figure of humility, avoiding the limelight and allowing his work to speak for itself. Many times, he had to be convinced that, in modern democratic politics, communicating achievements in governance was also part of the job. His repartee was often laced with amusement: “Either you can work or talk about your work.” In the current political scenario, where prime ministers and presidents take selfies at global summits, make social media reels during election campaigns and spend significant taxpayer funds on media management, he was a rare breed. Especially so, as the personal and professional lines in politics are often blurred. “I do not want to be seen as a prime minister who indulges in propaganda and personal glorification,” he would quietly but firmly assert.

For Singh, the media was merely a vehicle to communicate about the work he was doing. He took criticism on the chin and never dodged questions, as I observed while watching recordings of dozens of his news conferences and organising interactions with the press in India and abroad. He took fair criticism seriously, discussing minute points of economic thought with leading commentators. However, when faced with unfair press allegations, he would reconcile himself to the situation, quoting his former colleague and Panjab University vice-chancellor Amar Chand Joshi: “People will say what they want to say, so let them say it.” And then he would return to his work.

It was difficult and painful to witness the media’s hostility towards him during the last two years of his premiership, but he adhered to his self-imposed code of conduct in dealing with the press.

Early in 2014, a few months before the general election, office-bearers of the Press Club of India approached me with a proposal. They wanted the prime minister to unveil the foundation stone of their newly allotted plot of land in Lutyens’ Delhi and have his name inscribed on the plaque. As communications adviser, I saw this as an opportunity to facilitate another interaction with the media at a time when the majority of the press was hostile towards him. However, Singh’s response caught me off guard: “I would not like to be seen as a prime minister trying to curry favour with the members of the press so close to an election.” Case closed.

In the 28 months I worked with him, he was always a case of grace under fire, never losing his sense of humour or composure. His initial words to me when I joined were simple: “I am a small man in this big chair.” Sometimes, I felt the chair was not the main piece. The silent man, steadfast in his convictions and quietly doing his work, was the true focal point of his premiership. His selfless work will continue to inspire us for a very long time.

Pankaj Pachauri is a journalist and was communications adviser at the PMO from 2012 to 2014.

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Sat Jan 04 13:28:04 IST 2025

When we arrived in Model Town, Kiki was ten, I was six and Amu was about six months old. We were children of the ’70s. Diligent and dutiful, we needed no prodding to study. The streets were our playground, a space we shared with passing cows and cars. Being incurable bookworms, we were hardly ever bored. We were addicted to popular music and saw every major Hindi film that was released.

Once my father joined the central government, we moved from old Delhi to new, and from a small flat on the first floor to a large bungalow with an even larger garden. After a few years in Teen Murti Lane, we shifted to our own house in Ashok Vihar, following a new rule that officials owning a residence in the city had to pay an impossibly high rent for government accommodation. Two years later we were back in Lutyens’s Delhi, this time in Safdarjung Lane. Over the years my parents would hop from house to house, sampling Tughlak Road, Bapa Nagar, Lodhi Estate, Krishna Menon Marg, Safdarjung Lane again, and Safdarjung Road before they found themselves on Race Course Road. Incidentally, this was where they would stay the longest. Each house that they lived in became a separate chapter in our collective memory.

***

Somewhere along the way he retreated from family affairs and allowed his work to take over his life. Every day his office accompanied him home in big cloth bundles that we helped lug out of the car. At an early age we learnt to tiptoe around the house when he was home. He worked in bed where he sat cross-legged with a pillow on his lap, a stack of files beside him. As he hunched over his papers, inscribing neat little squiggles, he would tug at his beard and mutter to himself. When he was not working, he was usually preoccupied with a book or else with his thoughts. He still spent time with friends, but not as much as before. Dinner invitations were normally reserved for fellow economists who were either visiting town or leaving town. The three of us helped our mother cook, serve, or simply tidy up. Our father generally omitted to introduce us to his guests and they showed no particular interest in us. Being young and fearless, Amu would often perch herself on a chair and drink in details of the economic situation in different parts of the world. But once our duties were over, Kiki and I made ourselves scarce. One such evening, Kiki dared me to slowly saunter across the living room and back, wearing a crimson gypsy scarf on my head. My father did not notice me. Neither did his visitor. My next challenge was to ask the visitor for his cigarette lighter, which I promptly did. This time they paused just long enough to observe me pocket my trophy, and returned to their conversation.

As my father travelled a great deal, I was able to build up an enviable coin collection with no effort at all. Sometimes he would return to Delhi only to fly out again the same week. There was no question of asking him to get us anything because he made it clear that he had no time to shop. We therefore had to be satisfied with a regular supply of chocolate. At times he showed great initiative by asking a female aide to pick up nightwear for his wife and three daughters. This is why all four of us were always exceedingly well dressed in our sleep.

***

The petty details of everyday life were of no interest to him. Rising way above them, he confined himself to simple words of wisdom. Thus, in times of sisterly strife we were advised to ‘Be a Gentle Ben’. Ben was a bear who starred in a television series we used to watch in New York. ‘Don’t Use Harsh Language’ was another popular theme. To remind us of the hard realities in life, there was ‘Don’t Be Soft’, and ‘What Cannot Be Cured Must Be Endured’. And since a family of five lived rather precariously on a government salary, we were frequently told that ‘Money Does Not Grow On Trees’.

A bit of a clown myself, I found my father a very funny man. When in a reflective mood, he sat with an index finger perched on the side of his nose. He was completely helpless about the house and could neither boil an egg, nor switch on the television. Due to unknown reasons, he was unable to regulate the pace of his walk. Once he took off he would charge forward at top speed, leaving his companions straggling in the distance. He also exercised at a furious pace in a flurry of flapping arms and legs. Matters of his own health were causes of intense alarm. A cold simply had to be pneumonia, and a twinge of pain anywhere above the waist was surely a heart attack. Unless they were economists, visitors filled him with panic and he desperately tried to escape them. When he failed, he would make piteous attempts at small talk. He was at his best with young children whose language skills were limited. Older children foxed him completely. He never failed to ask them what class they were in, what their favourite subject was, and what their favourite sport was. After this, he would lapse into an uneasy silence. In those days his sister Pritam came over almost every month with her family. My cousins must have been very puzzled by his insatiable interest in these three aspects of their lives.

He also had a sense of humour of sorts. This was evident when he was with friends, even if they were economists. It was comforting to know that he could laugh and crack jokes as well. With us, he rarely did either. The lighter side of him liked to give nicknames to people. Unknown to them, one of our uncles was ‘John Babu’, another was ‘Jewel Babu’, and a third―to commemorate his pointed turban―was ‘Chunj Waley’.

Excerpted with permission from HarperCollins

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Sat Jan 04 13:26:57 IST 2025

Exclusive interview/ Montek Singh Ahluwalia, former deputy chairman, Planning Commission

Q/ You had over a 50-year association with Manmohan Singh. What kind of relationship did you share, and how did you influence each other?

A/ For me, he was both an inspiration and a mentor; so, obviously, I cannot say how I influenced him! The other way around is easier. He was professionally a role model. He had done exactly what I wanted to do―worked outside government as an economist and then joined government. I was also very impressed by his personal kindness and gentleness and his willingness, indeed keenness, to hear other people express their views. You could go to him and say, “I don’t entirely agree with what you said,” and he would listen and explain his position. He was a master in persuasion. Seeing him in operation taught me a lot on how to push ideas in an environment where they were not immediately attractive.

Q/ A significant percentage of the country’s population was born after 1991. Tell us about decisions from that era that shape India even today?

A/ You have touched on a very important point. Two-thirds of the country was born after 1991, and even the young adults among them are not aware of the importance of the changes in 1991, which are responsible for the economic transformation we have seen. They have no idea of how inefficient the control-oriented system was before 1991. They are not aware that by closing ourselves from foreign trade and protecting domestic manufacturers, we kept inflicting automobiles on the population which were 30 years out of date, and even then, it took many years to get a new car! Today’s young people have much more choice and they have producers chasing after them.

I worry about this because parts of the western world seem to be turning back towards protectionism. I hope we have the good sense to avoid this. We are much less closed than we were before 1991, but we are still more closed than other developing countries. We need to remain open to foreign investment, foreign technology and also imports, while also taking active steps to support Indian industry to compete effectively. I have no doubt we need to do more to help domestic industry, but not through across-the-board protection.

Q/ Manmohan Singh came from an academic background, and also served as a civil servant. Can you share a few of his “out-of-the-box” or bold decisions?

A/ The entire reform agenda was out-of-the-box, and he was the principal architect. As a civil servant, he had to work within the system, trying to push for change as much as possible. But, even as a civil servant, he didn’t just toe the line. I can think of two important occasions where he spoke up and had a decisive impact.

The first dates from 1973. There was a sharp rise in prices following the second oil shock, and domestic inflation reached 23 per cent. Wheat prices also shot up, and this was a sensitive matter. The Planning Commission recommended nationalising the wheat trade. This would have been a disaster. There was a meeting called by prime minister Indira Gandhi on how to control inflation, when the wheat trade nationalisation was also discussed. Manmohan Singh was then the chief economic adviser, a relatively junior official at a PM-level meeting, and he spoke up sharply against the nationalisation proposal. Instead he advocated using monetary and fiscal policy to restrain demand. He told me that Mrs Gandhi asked him if he was confident that these measures would curb inflation, and he unhesitatingly said they would within one year. He proved to be absolutely right. The next year saw prices fall. The official mood in those years was very control-oriented, and it was an “out-of-the-box” decision to speak up against controls and in favour of conventional monetary and fiscal policy. It worked, and I think it greatly raised Manmohan Singh’s stature in Mrs Gandhi’s estimation.

The second occasion was in the early 1980s, when the Bank of Credit and Commerce International, started by a well-known Pakistani banker based in Dubai, applied for a banking licence. Manmohan Singh was RBI governor, and he had heard that there were questions about some of their linkages, and he denied them a licence. They lobbied the finance ministry and the minister of finance, Pranab Mukherjee, was persuaded to take a note to the cabinet proposing to amend the law, taking away the power to grant licences from the RBI and move it to the finance ministry with consultation of the RBI. Manmohan Singh made it plain that if the cabinet approved this, he would resign since it would undermine the RBI’s credibility. When Mrs Gandhi heard of this, she overruled the proposal and the change was never made. It was a bold decision.

Of course, as finance minister and later prime minister, there were many occasions when Manmohan Singh had to act boldly, and he did.

Q/ How was the engagement with the states when you were deputy chairman of the Planning Commission. What was Singh’s guidance?

A/ He was very concerned that the Planning Commission should work closely with the states and try to keep them on board on policy matters, and also brief him on the issues the states raised. We used to meet each state once a year. The chief minister would come to meet the commission, and we would review progress on their plans and offer our comments. This is when we would determine and announce the size of assistance the Centre would give, and the size of the state plan. We would then brief the PM in detail on each such meeting.

States were particularly concerned that plan assistance, through what was called the Central plan schemes, should not be tied to too much conditionality, and they should have flexibility in how to use the funds. I agreed strongly with this and got the PM’s approval to reduce conditionality wherever we could.

Our relationship with the states varied. The larger states mainly wanted more money, but of course we had constraints. Some of them would take our criticism of various aspects of their performance fairly well and others not so. Smaller states found the most value in the interactions, partly because their needs were smaller and we could often respond significantly. Larger states often complained that if we couldn’t do more for them because of resource constraints, what was the point of their coming? I recall Sardar Parkash Singh Badal of Punjab saying this precisely. I had to explain to him that the purpose of annual discussion was to discuss state performance and to “approve” the state plan. Technically, the assistance the Centre gave was for the “approved” plan, so we had to approve the plan as a technicality. I recall [Tamil Nadu] CM Jayalalithaa telling me very nicely that since the Central government contribution to the TN plan was relatively small, it was odd for her to come to Delhi and get approval for how she spent mostly Tamil Nadu’s own resources! She had a point.

Towards the end of his second term, Dr Singh asked me to review what the Planning Commission did, and think of restructuring it to be better suited to the needs of today. We did a fair amount of work on that and I gave him a note on our ideas for restructuring the Planning Commission. He told me he had given it to PM [Narendra] Modi when he met him just before he took over.

Q/ What were the high points of Singh’s tenure as prime minister?

A/ It is obviously very difficult to identify high points of a ten-year tenure. An important point to make is that, in his ten years as PM, he guided an economy that had gained a lot of dynamism because of the reforms he had initiated in 1991 as finance minister. These were reforms which were continued by the United Front government, and also the subsequent National Democratic Alliance government under PM Vajpayee.

It is relevant to ask how the economy performed in that ten-year period. Well, it experienced an average growth of around 7.6 per cent per year, which is the highest India had ever experienced before and since. And growth was never Dr Singh’s only objective. The slogan coined in UPA-1 was “inclusive growth”. In those days, that was measured by the impact on poverty, and here, too, progress was remarkable. It was in this period that we saw, for the first time, a decline in the absolute number of the poor. Earlier there were small declines in the percentage below the poverty line, but between 2004 and 2011, the absolute number declined by 138 million!

Q/ How would you look at the India-US nuclear deal?

A/ This was another achievement that deserves mention. It was initiated in 2005 and signed in 2008. Dr Singh was deeply conscious that the non-proliferation regime that had been put in place discriminated against India, because we refused to sign the Non Proliferation Treaty that banned every country other than the big five from developing nuclear weapons. We had consistently called for universal nuclear disarmament, but if the world was not willing to do that, we reserved the right to develop a weapon ourselves. After the Pokhran-II explosion, the US and many countries applied sanctions. The Vajpayee government soothed ruffled relations, bringing things back to square one, but we continued to be discriminated against because the Nuclear Suppliers Group denied nuclear trade and technology to countries that were not part of the NPT regime.

Dr Singh’s personal diplomacy succeeded in getting an India-US nuclear deal, which included a waiver from the NSG such that India got all the benefits of a nuclear state without technically being accepted as one under the NPT. This enabled us to get materials and nuclear technology, which was otherwise denied. The press wrongly presented this as a deal to get US to build reactors. This was a possibility but what it did was to enable us to deal with anyone. It enables us to import uranium to fuel our own reactors. Our domestic mining of uranium was less than what we needed, and our reactors were not able to operate at full capacity.

Moreover the agreement with the US and the NSG waiver is what made possible a whole range of other military cooperation, which has expanded greatly in the last ten years. None of this would have been possible without the India-US nuclear deal.

Q/ His second tenure was marred by allegations of corruption. It also sparked a massive anti-corruption movement. How did he navigate this challenging phase?

A/ The spate of corruption allegations by the India Against Corruption movement did alter the image of the government. There was not even a hint of corruption around him personally or any of his family. As for the individual cases, he was a firm believer in doing the proper thing. In the case of A. Raja, the telecom minister, he was made to resign as soon as he was charged, and thereafter the matter was with the court. It is interesting to note that the CBI court, after a prolonged trial, pronounced judgment after the UPA term was over, and acquitted Raja on all counts, stating that not a shred of credible evidence had been presented to prove corruption. Let me clarify: one can have different views on whether the licences should have been allocated by auction or continued by administrative decision as in the past and the switch made only for 3G. But that is very different from corruption. The court categorically said there was no proof of corruption and the scandal was publicised because of the allegation of huge corruption. I have discussed this at length in my book, so let me leave it at that.

On balance, I don’t think the government navigated that period well. The strategy of leaving it to the court can only work if everyone accepts that is the right thing to do. But if politics keeps alleging corruption, and you say you cannot pronounce because the matter is sub judice, it becomes an unequal battle. I think the right thing to do would have been to have the CAG report discussed in Parliament, but as you know, the opposition did not allow that discussion to take place.

Q/ How do you think Singh’s legacy will be remembered? What aspects of his tenure and contributions deserve greater acknowledgment?

A/ I hope he is remembered as the person who brought about the decisive shift from the old policies which had not worked to a new set of policies based on reforms, and he did it in a way which got the backing of the Congress and other parties so that the broad thrust was continued by successive governments. As prime minister, he achieved the fastest growth rate India had ever seen. And it was a growth that was much more inclusive than in the past. If we are today seen as one of the fastest growing economies of the world, with the potential to become a serious economic power, it is because of the foundation Dr Singh laid.

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Sat Jan 04 13:25:55 IST 2025

Manmohan Singh came to power in 2004, carrying his credentials as an economist and an economic administrator. But his first crisis was not in the field of economy, nor at home―it was on the lawless sands of Mesopotamia, and it called for deft and delicate diplomacy.

Indeed, his predecessor A.B. Vajpayee had already made it clear that India wouldn’t commit troops to Iraq, a land that Americans had occupied searching for bombs, poison gas plants and war-germ labs. Not finding any, they hanged its ruler, Saddam Hussein, started issuing oil contracts, and were now facing flak from the world and fire from insurgents.

Manmohan had reiterated the Vajpayee line―no troops to Iraq, even to keep peace. That was characteristic of him―no overnight overturning of predecessors’ policies, no denigrating of his predecessors even if he thought they had been wrong, and never making surprise announcements (except once, which we will come to later). As if guided by a sense of gurutva, of not speaking ill of elders, he never said a word against his predecessors. Rather, he believed in building on the strengths of their policies, as he had done in the case of his economic reforms more than a decade earlier. Never denigrating the Nehruvian public sector model, he had built upon its strengths to initiate, build and groom a mature private sector economy in the 1990s.

The same was true of his foreign policy in the 2000s. Never finding fault with Nehruvian non-alignment, Indira’s Soviet leaning, Rajiv’s muscular militarism, Rao’s look-east, Gujral’s benign brotherliness to neighbours or Vajpayee’s atom-armed engagement of the west, he counted all those as blessings and would build upon the strengths of all.

But two months into the government, he was confronted with a ticklish hostage crisis―three Indian workers, hired by a US company in Kuwait, were abducted by Iraqi insurgents. His diplomats worked all ropes―diplomatic, political, commercial, religious, spooky and even sheer blackmail where required. Finally, his junior foreign minister, the low-profile E. Ahamed of the Muslim League, worked his Gulf Malayali business links and delivered the three workers alive and grinning.

Perhaps the crisis strengthened Manmohan’s resolve never to make harsh departures in his policies, nor to burn the bridges that his predecessors had built. Despite his initial scepticism about the benefits that would accrue from the possession of atomic arms, he quietly moved to modify Vajpayee’s militaristic nuclear policy into an energy policy, without sacrificing the big power gains accrued from the possession of the bomb. Thus, his surprise nuclear deal (the only surprise that he ever delivered during his 10-year rule) proved to be acceptable to the opposition BJP, most of his allies (except the left parties), the US who promised to supply uranium even to Tarapur which they had once refused, the Russians who had always backed India in all its military and technological adventures, the French who were keen on nuclear business, and even the uranium-selling Canada and Australia. He even risked his government over this, survived, and returned with a larger mandate.

To be fair, even at the height of the political diatribe over the nuclear deal, he never spoke an ill word about the left leaders. But he had made it clear to them―even at the height of their honeymoon―that he would brook no compromise over his strategic requirements even if it meant severing ties with the left. Thus when the Left Front government of Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee threatened to block the entry of US Air Force pilots and fighters into Kalaikunda for an exercise with the Indian Air Force, he is said to have quietly threatened the government with dismissal. That was Manmohan―firm when it came to protecting national interests, but never so rigid about anything personal.

Anyway, the new energy diplomacy over nuclear status got India into the elite nuclear clubs membered by the big five and their cronies. With that India gained what Indira and Vajpayee had worked for―near-big power status. All the same, he was not willing to sacrifice India’s strategic autonomy that prime ministers from Nehru downwards had believed in. For instance, despite all the pressure from his nuclear benefactor George W. Bush, he was not willing to sever ties with the junta of Myanmar. Even when Bush, on a visit to India, mentioned the importance of “exporting” democracy to Myanmar, Manmohan’s reply was a studied silence.

Myanmar was one issue over which his close friend and fellow economist Amartya Sen had misgivings. Like Bush, Sen, too, said so in Manmohan’s presence, and the latter’s response this time, too, was an amused smile. Similarly, even buddy Bush couldn’t wean him off the strong military bonding India had enjoyed with the Russians, who had been giving him technology partnerships over globally denied cruise missiles.

With Pakistan, too, he picked up from where Vajpayee had left. Vajpayee’s last major diplomatic deal was his visit to Islamabad in January 2004―months before he was to demit office (though he did not know it)―where he had got president Pervez Musharraf to give it in writing that Pak-controlled territory wouldn’t be allowed to be used for launching terror against India. Indeed, the commando-general, or his ISI, was again playing military deception. They brought down the scale of violence in the valley, but pressure-cooker bombs and other contraptions began going off in India’s cities and towns―Delhi, Mumbai, Ahmedabad, and so on. This strategy, of keeping the valley rather trouble-free and activating terror cells in the rest of India also gave a veneer of deniability to Pakistan.

Then came the Mumbai attack on India’s Constitution Day of 2008, where an ill-paid and unarmed police constable achieved a feat that even the toughest military commandos could not―he caught, in full public glare, a young Pakistani terrorist who had a name, an address and an undeniable identity of a Faridkot butcher, armed, alive and in the act!

The capture of Ajmal Kasab by Constable Tukaram Omble changed the discourse of India-Pakistan diplomacy. Manmohan’s crisis-management group pondered over sending troops guns blazing and fighters strewing bombs into Pakistan, but the military chiefs themselves are said to have advised against overt military action at the moment―never strike an enemy when he expects you to strike, they advised.

But it was not all forgotten or forgiven. While Manmohan’s diplomats went to town with the irrefutable evidence, his commandos effected at least four surgical strikes across the line of control, killing an unknown number of terrorists and terror cadets.

Meanwhile, as had been expected, the Chinese dragon was waking up. It had been biding its time, as Napoleon had warned Lord Amherst 200 years earlier from his exile in St Helena (“China is a sleeping giant, when she wakes she will shake the world”), focusing on modernising its technology, its society, its sciences, its industry and its military, and seeking to equal or excel the US as a world power. Having conducted the Beijing Olympics in 2008, China was ready to take on the world.

One of the first targets was Manmohan’s India. For two reasons―one, there had been the long-standing border dispute, unresolved but kept frozen through two political deals with Narasimha Rao in 1993 and 1996; two, Beijing was already miffed about Manmohan’s nuclear adventures and his bid to get India into the global big league.

Using an uprising in Tibet in 2008 as a ruse, China moved hundreds of armoured vehicles from Leshan in Sichuan and other places into Tibet. Most of the troops returned after shooting the rioters, but two brigades that were left behind were converted into mobile units that could be rapidly deployed on the Indian frontier. Soon, the People’s Liberation Army began building the capability to rail-move two rapid action divisions into Tibet.

Sensing trouble, the Manmohan government permitted the IAF to move three wings of its deep-strike Sukhoi-30MKIs closer to the northern frontier―the 15 wing to Bareilly, the 11 wing to Tezpur and the 14 wing to Chabua. That sent the right message to the Chinese―that their much-marvelled rail line, over which they could move huge divisions overnight, could be bombed out in treeless Tibet in no time.

Not to be outdone, the Chinese started building and upgrading their highways, mainly those connecting Tibetan towns with China’s military depots and stations. India responded in kind by getting the Border Roads Organisation to build or upgrade 3,175 km of frontier roads in 2009-10, another 2,433 km in 2010-11, and 2,245 km in 2011-12. Most of the key roads linking corps or division headquarters in Arunachal Pradesh were quickly double-laned and reinforced to take tanks and artillery. In short, Manmohan and his defence minister, the low-profile A.K. Antony, were racing with the Chinese road for road.

China’s next move was to upgrade old airfields and build new ones―about six were built in 2009-10―which could land troops and support fighter operations. India promptly replied by pulling out the Army’s entire Dimapur corps from counter-insurgency duties and deploying it on the China border. Next, the Rangia-based 2 Mountain Division was pulled out from the Tezpur corps and attached to the Dimapur corps. Next, two mountain divisions were raised anew and quietly given to the Dimapur corps. All the three pivot (defensive) corps in east―Dimapur, Tezpur and Siliguri―were given light 155mm guns that could be easily heli-lifted.

Strategic airlift capability was also enhanced several times by inducting C-130J Super Hercules and C-17 Globemaster aeroplanes that could land troops, tanks and guns at remote points on the frontier from any corner of India in no time. Even western observers were conceding that India’s strategic airlift capability was now far exceeding that of China. This would be proved on the ground years later in the post-Galwan crisis when India could get its troops and tools to the frontier faster than the Chinese could.

Meanwhile, as if to take care of any misadventure in Ladakh, untold batteries of BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles were moved to the sector. And with the upgradation of the old landing grounds like Daulat Beg Oldi to take huge flight-landing operations in the Ladakh sector, the Chinese got the message that Manmohan meant business.

Next, India revealed its trump card, its Brahmastra. On July 17, 2013, Manmohan’s cabinet committee on security gave the green signal to raise an attack (strike) corps in the eastern sector, the first of its kind against the giant northern neighbour, at an expense of Rs64,000 crore. It would be pet-named Brahmastra Corps.

That signalled a radical change in India’s strategic doctrine against China. Till then, it had been assumed that Indian forces would only be able to defend territory, using its three pivot corps in case of a large-scale ground attack by China in the eastern sector. Now with the raising of an attack corps against China, over and above the three defending corps in the east, it was a signal that India could even be on the offensive if it wanted.

Is it any surprise that the Chinese haven’t attempted any adventures in the east till date?

THE WEEK and Manmohan Singh

THE WEEK had the privilege of chronicling Manmohan Singh’s journey on our covers several times. Here, we revisit some of the most captivating moments captured in our past issues.

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Sat Jan 04 13:25:13 IST 2025

I had known Manmohan Singh briefly when he was finance minister and I was the director of the Intelligence Bureau, but had no occasion to understand the makings of his mind or vision. Years later, as special adviser and the National Security Adviser (2004-2010), I had the opportunity to better comprehend his vision. Being one of the prime minister’s close advisers, I realised that economics was but one aspect of his encyclopaedic mind and that here was someone who ranked among the makers of modern history.

His gentle mien concealed a steely resolve to achieve what he believed was in the best interest of the nation. Also, once he had set his mind on something, he would not stop till he had achieved it. An outstanding example was when the left parties withdrew their support to his government after the India-US nuclear deal was finalised in 2008. He was willing to sacrifice his prime ministership and his government, rather than giving up on the nuclear deal. He did not believe in power politics, but like any good chess player, he knew where to move the pieces on the board to defeat his opponents gently rather than decimate them.

While his tenure as finance minister is identified with economic reforms, the India-US nuclear deal (2005-2008) marked his tenure as prime minister, notwithstanding the fact that he had several other achievements to his credit. It was my good fortune to work closely with him at each and every stage of the epic nuclear saga, and I can say, without fear of contradiction, that there would have been no nuclear deal without Manmohan Singh. The role of US president George W. Bush was no less in this regard.

Some background to this eponymous event may be in order. It arose from a brief conversation between Singh and Bush on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in the fall of 2004. At this meeting, and in response to a request from the prime minister, president Bush promised to help by easing restrictions on India, specially regarding nuclear trade and technology―a giant leap forward considering that India was very much under ‘sanctions’ following the Pokhran nuclear tests of 1998.

As the pointsman for the deal, I was privy to every single twist and turn in the negotiations which, despite the warmth in relations at the highest level, met with stiff opposition from within the system. At every chokepoint in the negotiations, the intervention of Bush became necessary and his reply to questions put to him was inevitably whether Manmohan Singh supported the Indian viewpoint. If answered in the affirmative, he had only one reply: ‘Manmohan is a good man and I would endorse what he wants’.

I do not wish to labour on the minutest details of the deal here, including a mention of the iconic 123 Agreement, or the unique waiver on nuclear issues given by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to India, except to affirm that not only the US, but most countries, and also the IAEA had full faith in the word of Manmohan Singh. No greater compliment could be given to an individual, who thus came to be regarded not merely as the prime minister of one nation, but also the conscience of the world.

He had a unique relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and India-Russia relations scaled new heights under his tenure on military, nuclear and economic matters. Singh and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe established an ‘entente cordiale’ unparalleled in India’s diplomatic history. Singh’s 10 years as prime minister also witnessed Sino-Indian relations at possibly its most cordial level in recent times, and the 2005 India-China ‘Agreement on Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the India-China Boundary Question’ was testimony to the warmth of the relationship that existed at the time.

I recall that at his first meeting with Barack Obama in Washington in 2009, the US president paid obeisance by affirming ‘Manmohan Singh, you are my guru’. Another similar moment emerged during the difficult days in 2008-2009, when the world was reeling under the ‘sub prime crisis’ in the US when, at a meeting of world leaders in Ekaterinburg (Russia), speaking after leaders like Gordon Brown and Hu Jintao, often at cross purposes, the conference chairman turned to the economist prime minister of India, who in 15 minutes not only summed up the situation but came up with solutions which were then unanimously endorsed by the world leaders.

Manmohan Singh was loathe to dabble in security and other matters, and he left them to his ministers and officials. He, however, kept a careful eye on the budget provisions. I realised (and to my benefit) that when needed he could be a tower of strength as was the case during the 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai. The security establishment had come under bitter attack from the rest of the country, but Manmohan Singh, the ‘gentle giant’, backed the security establishment to the hilt. While most of India’s leaders wanted action against Pakistan for allowing the terrorists to use its territory to plan and plot attacks on India, Singh did not believe that bombing places in Pakistan would be a suitable antidote and he had a point. As subsequent events proved, Pakistan is currently weighed down by the presence of several terrorist groups that it had nurtured on its territory, even as India has attained new heights.

There are several more aspects that could be touched upon to explain the phenomenon that was Manmohan Singh. I shall end by affirming an old statement―future generations may wonder whether such a leader ever walked the earth.

Narayanan is former director of the Intelligence Bureau, former National Security Adviser and former governor of West Bengal.

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Sat Jan 04 13:22:32 IST 2025

So be it,” said prime minister Manmohan Singh in a 2007 interview when the left parties threatened to withdraw support to his government over the India-US nuclear deal. With that brief statement, Singh sent a powerful message. The left eventually withdrew support, but the government survived, thanks to the Samajwadi Party, which provided outside support. The United Progressive Alliance government retained power in the 2009 general elections, giving rise to a new slogan: “Singh is king”.

Singh’s image as a middle-class hero―a humble sardar who overcame adversity through scholarship―and India’s rising global stature endeared him to voters. The Congress won 206 seats, surpassing the 200-seat mark for the first time since 1991, when it had won 244 seats following Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination. The Congress has not crossed the 200-seat mark since its 2009 triumph.

A decade earlier, Singh had contested his first and only election from the South Delhi constituency in 1999, losing to the BJP’s Vijay Kumar Malhotra by a margin of 30,000 votes, partly because of internal “sabotage” by his party. Days before voting, Congress leaders blamed the RSS for the 1984 anti-Sikh riots in Delhi. This was seen as a means to absolve the party of the blame. The voters, many of them Sikhs who were willing to support Singh, apparently had a change of heart at the last moment, even as RSS activists actively campaigned against him.

In the two prior Lok Sabha elections from the same seat, Congress candidates Kapil Sibal and Ajay Maken had also faced defeats, losing to BJP’s Sushma Swaraj by over one lakh votes. This indicates how close Singh was to victory. Interestingly, riding on the momentum of Singh’s victory in 2009, the Congress won the South Delhi seat for the first time in 25 years. It was also the last time the party managed to win the constituency.

Singh was not your traditional politician, yet his 10-year tenure marked a significant chapter in India’s 77 years of independence―a period that saw the rise of a technocrat-politician focused on delivery. Under his leadership, transformative social welfare schemes were initiated, including the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, the Right to Education, the Right to Food Security and, to some extent, the Right to Information. If his resoluteness in getting the nuclear deal signed marked the high point of his tenure, these rights-based schemes will be his enduring legacy.

Singh’s success lay in his ability to engage with diverse opinions and steer a coalition government―a task requiring considerable political acumen. He brought integrity, courtesy, transparency and old-world humility to the PMO, standing apart in the long era of Indian politics dominated by political machinations, confident body language and the public image of decisive leaders crafted through bold slogans. The traditional political class saw him as an interloper who made it to the top with Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s blessings. Hence, there was constant pushback from the old guard.

Instead of countering criticism with aggression, Singh often responded with silence, where Urdu couplets often provided an outlet. One of his memorable lines was: “Hazaaron jawabon se acchi hai meri khamoshi, na jaane kitne sawalon ki aabroo rakhi (My silence is better than a thousand answers; it preserves the dignity of countless questions).”

In today’s political climate, dominated by instant reactions and blistering counterattacks, such restraint might seem outdated. His second term coincided with the rise of social media and an increasingly vocal media scene. The very policies Singh had championed created an ecosystem that thrived on his economic reforms but operated by amplifying the loudest voices, often discarding old-world decorum.

He refused to write his memoirs, keeping the tumultuous decades of Indian polity since his years as economic adviser to the finance minister and his time at the country’s top post under wraps. When his press adviser wrote a book on his PMO years, Singh termed it a “stab in the back”.

Singh’s philosophy―“my work will speak for itself”―became anachronistic in an era where good work demands aggressive promotion. Yet, his legacy endures as a testament to quiet, dignified leadership in a world of boisterous politics. As the headlines and outpourings of praise for the man showed, in his death, Singh had become more popular.

For most of his tenure, Singh was a Rajya Sabha MP from Assam. He was the first from the country’s minority, and that, too, from Sikhs, who constitute less than two per cent of the population, to become prime minister. He didn’t wear his identity on his sleeve; in his own words, he was committed to liberal and secular principles.

But he did what no other prime minister had done before―he apologised for the anti-Sikh riots of 1984. “I have no hesitation in apologising not only to the Sikh community but to the whole Indian nation because what took place in 1984 is the negation of the concept of nationhood and what is enshrined in our Constitution,” he said during an intervention in the Rajya Sabha in 2005 on the action taken report on the Nanavati Commission. “I am not standing on any false prestige. On behalf of our government, on behalf of the entire people of this country, I bow my head in shame that such a thing took place.”

This singular act helped in the healing process for the community, which had nurtured angst at being denied justice, and even helped ease their animosity against the grand old party. Subsequently, Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, too, echoed Singh’s views.

What remains an ignominious record of Singh’s tenure was the long list of scams implicating his ministers, which propelled anti-corruption protests in the country, helmed by Anna Hazare. The Nirbhaya case and the protests that followed marked another low point. Singh withdrew into a shell, and let his ministers handle the crisis. It would have helped had the prime minister stamped his authority and been more vocal. He did “force” minister A. Raja to resign following the telecom scam, but the damage was done. Years later, the “notional loss” theory, which was propagated to discredit his regime, was rejected by the courts.

The last years of the UPA saw a rise in momentum of the protests against the government, with Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi offering himself as a direct contrast to Singh’s style and tenor. Arvind Kejriwal pounded the Congress with his aggressive hard-sell of honest politics. Modi redefined the image of a prime minister, always on the move, not shying away from challenging the status quo and engaging in aggressive campaigning during the polls, thus marking a new era in the country’s polity.

Modi was the first prime minister to be born in independent India, while Singh carried the sensitivities of an undivided nation. He longed to visit his birthplace in Pakistan, but owing to the inimical politics between the two nations, he chose not to―a regret that many of his generation still carry.

In his death, Singh’s family chose to “celebrate” his life (so read the memorial service invite by his family), showing that it was a life well lived.

MARUTI 800, OLD-SCHOOL FDS

BY SHUBHANGI SHAH

Despite having the best of cars, Singh preferred his modest Maruti 800, Asim Arun, a former IPS officer-turned BJP politician, revealed in a post on X. Arun was part of Singh’s security team for three years starting 2004.

And, the man who unleashed the stock market revolution in India never owned any shares. All his investments were in good old fixed deposits in the State Bank of India.

THE BLUE TURBAN

A trimmed beard, big glasses and a light-blue turban―that is how Singh was seen and will be remembered. “The colour light blue is one of my favourites and is often seen on my head,” he said while being honoured with a doctorate of law in 2006. He also shared how it served as a reminder of his time at Cambridge university when his friends would affectionately call him “Blue Turban”.

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Sat Jan 04 13:21:48 IST 2025

The gravest mistake people make while analysing Manmohan Singh’s legacy is dwelling too much on his milestone achievement as an accidental finance minister, instead of his real contributions as an intentional prime minister.

This is the margdarshak who saved India from economic turmoil more than once. Singh, who once described himself as ‘the Fagin of his peers’, in a twist on Oliver Twist, did give India a lot more than just liberalisation.

Sure, the ‘animal spirits’ he unleashed with the 1991 reforms were epochal. By cutting red tape, removing government control on business and simplifying taxes, he created an atmosphere that soon made India the second fastest-growing major economy in the world. Gone was the ‘Hindu rate of growth’ India was often derided with (which never exceeded 3.5 per cent), with the nation notching up GDP growth rates of around 7 per cent in the 1990s and peaking at a scorching 9 per cent in the late 2000s. India and Indians had discovered the good life, the sort they thought existed only in countries across the seas.

India was on a roll under his watch. But there was a deep rumbling from out west. The ominous sort only an economist-prime minister would have been prescient enough to see. An innocuous crash of the housing market in the faraway US was soon to have worldwide ramifications, and when Lehman Brothers, an American financial behemoth which had invested heavily in securities linked to mortgages, collapsed in September 2008, it was official―a global economic meltdown was under way. And India was not immune to it.

“During the global financial crisis of 2008, his astute management helped India weather the storm and remain relatively unscathed,” said Sethurathnam Ravi, economist and former chairman of the Bombay Stock Exchange. “His government implemented measures to stimulate demand, protect vulnerable sections of society, and ensure the stability of the banking sector.”

In the seven months since September 2008, Singh prodded the RBI to ease monetary terms to flush the system with cash―as much as 05.6 lakh crore―to ensure that the economy did not fall into a recession.

The result? India avoided a crisis. The only visible effects were some service export-oriented sectors struggling to get orders and some corporates using the crisis as an excuse to lay off employees.

“Manmohan Singh’s singular contribution as prime minister has been his focus on putting an institutional framework for enabling a sustainable growth and economic climate,” said Vishwanathan Iyer, senior associate professor at Great Lakes Institute of Management, Chennai. “In all fairness, the Narendra Modi government has been putting into practice most of the legislations passed or ideated from the Manmohan Singh era!”

Singh’s decade-long stint saw welfare policies that might have a bigger impact on India’s economy and people’s well-being than his dismantling of the licence raj. While the reforms he initiated as finance minister came from the economist in him, his legacy was better served by the social reformer turban he put on as the head of the UPA government.

Prime among them was MGNREGA, which guaranteed minimum wages to every adult member of a rural household for 100 days a year. Its lofty aim, which seemed impossible initially, is today regarded as a benchmark for social inclusion. “While it is easy to criticise MGNREGA, it is the world’s largest social welfare programme with the provision of social audit embedded within it,” said Iyer. “The fact that the subsequent governments continued to maintain it is testimony to its utility.”

If liberalisation made urban India aspirational, MGNREGA helped transform rural India from a hinterland of destitution and uncertainty into one that is hopeful of a better future. The United Nations’ own figures stand testament: Around 27 crore Indians moved out of poverty during Singh’s stint as prime minister, with the poverty rate halving―from 55 per cent in 2004 to around 28 per cent when he demitted office a decade later.

Many more pathbreaking rights-based rules were passed during his tenure, possibly with more than a little prodding from the likes of Sonia Gandhi and Jean Dreze in the National Advisory Council. Ranging from Right to Information to Aadhaar, they made the government more accountable to citizens.

True to his technocrat persona, he also had a string of reform measures on the economy and business side. Capital market reforms deepened, with the RBI given the autonomy to decide on monetary policy. Foreign investment caps were progressively reduced in sectors ranging from aviation to telecom, while the ceiling for foreign institutional investors was raised.

And when Singh dug his heel in and managed to get the nuclear deal with the US passed in Parliament, it was not just about getting sanctions lifted or getting fuel for India’s reactors―it was a pivotal shift in India’s foreign policy towards aligning with the US and the west, redrawing destiny and fortune with one singular stamp.

“His focus on infrastructure development, investment in education and health care, and emphasis on inclusive growth contributed to lifting millions out of poverty and narrowing socioeconomic disparities. He also took significant steps to promote the IT sector and make it globally competitive,” said Ravi. “However, it is important to acknowledge that his government could have done more to tackle corruption and push for more extensive reforms. A stage came during the last leg of his tenure where policy push was getting hampered and decision-making was impaired.”

The liquidity infusion during the global financial crisis eventually came back to bite him in myriad ways―from price rise to shady businesses borrowing the easy cash on offer with no intention of paying back. “His growth strategy scarred the economy by inflicting very high inflation and thus a pretty high current account deficit,” said V.P. Singh, director, PGDM (managerial economics & statistics), at Great Lakes Gurugram. “The flow of money in the economy got blocked and stalled a large number of projects. The corporate sector got laden with debt while banks piled up non-performing assets. The economy seemed to be stuck with this twin balance sheet impact and policy paralysis.”

A well-orchestrated opposition campaign was already under way by then, projecting Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi as the next prime minister. Savvy, articulate and aggressive, Modi was a stark contrast to Manmohan who was billed by detractors as Man‘maun’ (silent), and a lame duck prime minister who was a puppet of 10, Janpath. The final nail in the coffin was his government’s absolute misreading of popular sentiment when it tried to treat the India Against Corruption movement of Anna Hazare, as well as the seething public angst at the Delhi gangrape case, as mere law and order incidents.

His second tenure might have cost Singh his legacy. But even this tumultuous period saw him pushing through progressive reforms like the Food Securities Act and Direct Benefit Transfer that launched direct cash transfer schemes to reduce leakage in welfare schemes. (It was his successor, Modi, who fully realised it with his Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-mobile trinity). Also, the Companies Act enacted in 2013 significantly improved corporate governance norms and FDI limits were increased in areas like retail, broadcasting and insurance.

A few years ago, Manmohan Singh recounted his thought process while being called to launch the bold reforms we today fete as liberalisation. “If I fail, that is of no great consequence,” he said. “And who fails if India wins?” In hindsight, it is amply clear that Manmohan Singh did not fail, and India is the winner for that.

TEA AND BISCUITS

A vegetarian by choice, Singh was especially fond of tea and simple Marie biscuits. During his 2011 trip to Bangladesh, the first by an Indian prime minister since 1999, he said in a lighter vein: “I am willing to break my vegetarian vow because I have heard about the delicious dish of hilsa fish.”

SECRET MISSION

In 1998, the Congress, under its new leader Sonia Gandhi, was desperately seeking an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party. After much effort, they found a bureaucrat close to Kanshi Ram. The official arranged a secret meeting.

Sonia chose Manmohan Singh and Arjun Singh for the mission. The former arrived quietly and waited. The latter came in a Maruti, his head covered with a yellow towel. The two waited nearly an hour before Kanshi Ram arrived. The BSP leader ignored the veteran negotiator Arjun Singh; he was more accommodating towards the otherwise reticent Manmohan. In the end, the deal was cracked and the Congress ended up winning the Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Delhi assembly elections with the BSP’s support.

LOST BRIEFCASE

In 1979, Singh headed the Indian delegation at the Aid India Consortium meeting in Paris. He had prepared a draft of his presentation, but said he would be improving on it during his travel through London and Bonn. He arrived in Paris on June 5 and was checking into the hotel when he realised he had lost his briefcase containing the final speech and his personal effects.

A police complaint was filed, but he did not pin much hope on it. Singh and his team sat through the day and night to prepare the final presentation. The following morning, just before they were to depart for the meeting, there was a call informing them that the briefcase had been found in a trash bin.

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Sat Jan 04 13:21:06 IST 2025

My first meeting with Dr Manmohan Singh happened by chance. In the early 1980s, I was a faculty at the Sardar Patel Institute of Economic and Social Research in Ahmedabad, and was in Delhi for a seminar at Jawaharlal Nehru University. I got a message from the vice chancellor’s office, asking me to immediately call a telephone number. The man who picked up the call was Singh, who politely asked me to meet him at his office in the Yojana Bhawan.

That was the time when the All Assam Students’ Union-led movement was at its peak and he told me that Indira Gandhi had asked him to prepare a document on the economy of Assam and he could not find much published materials. He wanted me to elaborate on Assam’s economy, its challenges and prospects.

I was not at all prepared. Nevertheless, I collected my thoughts and shared them with him. He took elaborate notes, and then sought my permission to use them for his document. We had been in touch ever since. I could experience his humility and modesty time and again despite his exceptional intellect and accomplishments.

In 1991, when the country was going through the foreign exchange crisis, I published an op-ed page article titled ‘Why not a Gold Bank?’ in the Hindustan Times. The essence of the article was to stop the rampant smuggling of gold by drastically reducing import duty and setting up a Gold Bank and incentivising households to place their unproductive gold with it to circulate so that it becomes a productive asset.

The then Reserve Bank governor S. Venkitaramanan told me that the ideas in the article were brilliant and that I should firm them up in collaboration with RBI researchers. While we were at the job, he asked me to prepare a concrete proposal for Singh, who was then finance minister. Singh tweaked the suggestion and placed a budget proposal to drastically cut the custom duty on gold and permitted NRIs to bring in a specific quantity of gold duty-free. Later, Singh profusely thanked me for the suggestion. Then I reminded him there was also the suggestion of a Gold Bank. His response: setting up of a Gold Bank is complex. Here he is, an adept policymaker.

Singh presented his landmark budget for 1991-92 that ushered in a new direction for the Indian economy and laid the blueprint for a Viksit Bharat. It was a difficult time for the economy. India was on the verge of defaulting on its debt obligations and had witnessed shrinkage in foreign trade, unsustainable fiscal deficit and inflation in two digits.

The government was left with limited options: default in the debt obligations or accept structural reforms assistance of the World Bank and IMF. It opted for the latter. India liberalised the economy, introduced comprehensive reforms and integrated itself with the global economy.

Singh’s critics accused him of following the diktats of the World Bank and the IMF. Those who followed his reform policies knew that he continued largely with his own reform agenda even as some of the targets such as fiscal deficit were not quite in sync with those set by The Bank-Fund. Eventually they made compromises willy-nilly.

Being at the helm of policymaking for years, Singh understood the working of the Indian economy and its strengths and weaknesses. He had the wisdom accumulated in the reports of various committees and commissions appointed to study and recommend on almost every aspect of the economy. Many of these recommendations were not entirely different from those under structural reforms. Benefitting from all these, he followed a homegrown agenda of reforms.

It was a difficult journey on the new path Singh charted for the economy, ending ‘permit, quota, and licence raj’, and bringing in a market-driven system. It was more difficult for his colleagues in the government and the party, not being quite ready for such transformative reforms.

During that time, I organised an international conference on a global project I was leading as the Indian partner at the Indian Statistical Institute. The international participants of the conference were keen to hear Singh and Montek Singh Ahluwalia on the reforms. I requested them both. Ahluwalia agreed and shared his thoughts over a lunch. Singh suggested a Saturday morning when he was relatively free. The preceding day, he called me and said that the prime minister had scheduled a meeting on economic reforms which could be stormy and his presence was essential, and he excused himself. But around 10pm, he called and said the meeting was postponed and he would make it. He gave a brilliant speech that prompted a rousing ovation from the audience.

When he became the ‘accidental prime minister’, he went ahead with the reforms but with a little difference. His two terms witnessed an average growth of 7.8 per cent, millions of people being lifted out of poverty, a growing middle class and an aspirational society. However, there were also areas of failures. High growth worsened income distribution and created fewer jobs than expected. As partial correctives, he enacted a number of right-based legislations such as MGNREGA, RTE, NFSA and RTI.

The UPA’s second term was tainted by corruption charges, but even Singh’s worst opponent would not doubt his honesty and integrity. And all the loud and shrill charges will not efface his many an enduring contribution.

Sarma, a member of the Thirteenth Finance Commission, was vice chancellor of Rajiv Gandhi University, Itanagar.

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Sat Jan 04 13:19:51 IST 2025

As prime minister, Manmohan Singh had his first meeting with Pakistan’s president Pervez Musharraf on September 24, 2004 in New York. A few hours before that meeting, I went to the New York Palace Hotel, where the Indian delegation to the 59th United Nations General Assembly was staying, for a private breakfast with National Security Adviser J.N. Dixit. He told me the summit would begin with a one-on-one exchange between Singh and Musharraf. Dixit asked me not to mention this to anyone. Only two other people in the Indian government were aware of it and it was not listed on Singh’s classified minute-to-minute programme.

One of the two people was diplomat Rakesh Sood. Dixit trusted Sood, then deputy chief of the Indian mission in Washington, and he had summoned him on temporary duty to New York. The other was Ruchi Ghanashyam, liaison officer to Dixit during his General Assembly visit. Ghanashyam, then posted in New York, had brought along our breakfast―home-cooked Mysore-style rava upma.

Shortly after breakfast, we headed for the Roosevelt Hotel, a stone’s throw from the Grand Central Station. It was Pakistan’s turn to host the Indians and it chose this hotel which was then owned by the Pakistan International Airlines. Before walking towards Musharraf, who was waiting to receive Singh, Dixit announced to the Indian delegation that there would be a one-on-one meeting between the two leaders before the delegation-level talks. External Affairs Minister Natwar Singh, who thought of himself as the oracle of diplomacy, exploded. “This cannot be allowed,” he said, overstepping the limits of a cabinet minister in front of the prime minister. Singh was his usual picture of calm. “Natwar, let me decide what can be allowed and what cannot be,” he said, firmly putting the minister in his place. Manmohan Singh resolutely guarded his turf. The only exceptions he would make were for the members of the first family of the Congress.

Dixit was in his element when I met him in his hotel suite later that day. “Come to me after six months,” he said. “We will have a solution to the Kashmir problem.” Alas, it was not to be. He died on January 3, 2005.

Dixit and his Pakistani counterpart, Tariq Aziz, had decided that they would not keep any record of their deliberations, Dixit’s aides told me after he died. Some years later, Musharraf hinted at this solution, which had fallen by the wayside. Manmohan Singh, typically, has taken the secret of what could have been a Kashmir solution to his funeral pyre.

Like all efficient civil servants, Singh knew how to wield power without being abrasive. Once, External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna’s political aides were harassing a joint secretary who suspected corruption in a big foreign aid project that Krishna wanted to be approved. Krishna’s office tried to turn the tables on the officer, accusing him of corruption and threatening to let loose the CBI on him. Someone brought it to the prime minister’s attention. One day, after a meeting at his residence, Singh left the high table and walked to the back of the room and shook hands with the joint secretary. Within earshot of everyone present, the prime minister complimented the officer on doing a fine job and urged him to keep it up. No issue was specified, but everyone got the message. The harassment immediately ceased and the officer prevailed on the dubious aid contract.

Manmohan Singh’s dogged perseverance of the India-US nuclear deal is well known, but he had other important foreign policy successes that are no longer remembered. It would have come as a great satisfaction to Singh that 12 days before he died, the wheel came a full cycle on one of his external affairs visions. Releasing a scholarly periodical on foreign affairs, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar put a premium on relations with Canada. His remarks were in contrast to a year’s descent in India-Canada relations, now at its nadir. Throughout his prime ministership, Singh worked to improve ties with Ottawa. He realised that Canada is a ‘resource power’ and its assets could help India grow at 6 to 8 per cent if those were incorporated into India’s supply chain ecosystem.

Singh was shrewd enough to also realise―especially as a Sikh―that Canada had to make amends to aspects of its inglorious past if India-Canada relations were to realise its potential. He told this to his counterpart in Ottawa, Stephen Harper, whenever they met. In 2006, Harper appointed a judicial commission to inquire the Khalistani terrorist bombing of Air India’s Kanishka aircraft in mid-air, which killed 329 people. In 2010, after the commission’s final report, Harper solemnly stood before the families of the victims and apologised to them. Twenty-five years too late, but better late than never.

During the rest of his tenure, Singh continued to work on the Canadians to atone for another act of inhumanity. In 1914, Canada refused entry to 376 Indians, mostly Sikhs, who arrived in Vancouver by a Japanese ship, the Komagata Maru. They endured unspeakable hardship on the vessel for two months, after which Komagata Maru was forced to set sail to Calcutta. Several passengers died. In 2007, the government of British Columbia―where Vancouver is located―apologised for the incident. A year later, Harper apologised to the Sikh community in the province. After Singh and Harper had left office, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the sufferings of the ship’s passengers a “stain on Canada’s past” and repeated the apology in the House of Commons. The correction of these two historic wrongs by Canada bears the personal foreign policy imprint of Singh as prime minister.

Singh never got enough credit for putting India’s relations with Saudi Arabia on an upward trajectory, both as finance minister and as prime minister. He visited the kingdom in both capacities and brought King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud as Republic Day chief guest in 2006. Singh also opened up relations with Oman and Qatar. He did not take enough care of ties with the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait owing to circumstances beyond his control.

The author was a foreign correspondent in Washington.

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Sat Dec 28 12:30:40 IST 2024

Exclusive Interview/ Reem Al-Hashimy, Minister of State for International Cooperation, the UAE

The year 2025 marks a decade of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s transformative engagement with the United Arab Emirates, solidifying bilateral ties as one of India’s most strategic global partnerships in the 21st century. The UAE is now India’s third-largest trading partner, with collaboration growing across diverse sectors, including defence, education, sustainability, culture and technology. The evolving nature of this relationship was underscored by the UAE Minister of State for International Cooperation, Reem Al-Hashimy, who recently visited New Delhi as part of an official delegation led by the UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The delegation was in India for the fourth Strategic Dialogue and the 15th Joint Commission meeting between the two nations.

In an exclusive interview with THE WEEK at the Taj Mahal Hotel in Delhi, Al-Hashimy discussed the strong foundation of India-UAE relations and the vast potential for further growth. She also spoke of the deep-rooted people-to-people connections that have been integral to strengthening the partnership, reflecting on her own family’s ties to India. Her father, a former footballer, received medical treatment in India, and her mother remembers enjoying shopping in Mumbai. The doctors who attend to her three sons are also from India. Al-Hashimy emphasised that such personal connections have played a significant role in fostering closer bilateral ties. In her view, the India-UAE partnership has never been stronger or more promising.

Edited excerpts:

Q/ This is your fourth trip to India this year (2024), this time with Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, deputy prime minister and foreign minister of the UAE. Obviously, India is a very important partner for you. As these frequent trips show, there must be something brewing in bilateral ties.

A/ Yes, of course. I am very excited to share with you some of the really inspiring proof points in the relationship between the UAE and India. I have come a lot more than three times this year but on technical visits. But I have had the privilege of accompanying their royal highnesses at least three times in 2024. But if you look at the year before that and the year before that, you will see a handful of visits every year between both of us, both Indian leadership to the UAE, and the UAE leadership to India, which is indicative of a relationship that is really catapulting into new and exciting spaces.

The strength of this relationship is really across all of the different levels of government, whether from the most senior leadership level down to the ministerial levels and the undersecretary levels, and also between people to people and business to business. And add to it what has been happening between our two countries in the education and cultural space as well―you will see that student visits are also becoming more and more frequent. And so when we look at the world around us and when we see where India is going and when we look at where we have been with India already, we are not just reassured, but also excited about how much more we can do together. And hence the frequency of these very high-level visits, which always give an impetus for us to be able to do more and more.

Q/ What about the strategic point of view in bilateral ties? Are these visits used to discuss strategic ties going forward?

A/ Absolutely. They usually entail taking stock of where we are, looking at some of the challenges that we are both facing and studying how we could avoid those challenges and prevent them in the future. But it’s not a management exercise. These sessions are also creative, because we say, ‘What more can we do? Where else have we not been together?’ And we have created a few milestones in the last few years with one another, including the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). We have a large Indian community in the UAE. Many Emiratis visit India often. [So we started looking at] what is untapped, even though the trade relationship is quite strong.

And hence, the conversation started around whether we could liberalise trade further. Can we liberalise services further? Can we liberalise investment further? And suddenly, the slope is much more steep, because our trade has increased even more. Our investment has increased as well.

So if I look at CEPA, at the dirham-rupee exchange programme, at the work we are doing from the central bank perspective, now moving forward, there is so much we can do in technology together. That is also a priority for your government. There is so much we can do in energy together. And India has remarkably shifted its dynamic in just a short period, and there is still more that we can do together.

Q/ Are there any roadblocks at this point?

A/ There always are. The machinery of your system and the machinery of ours mean that there are going to be bumps along the road―administrative and bureaucratic. Despite that, you’ll be surprised that some very important agreements are being signed. Not everybody knows some of the challenges. Not everyone is aware of the challenges involved, nor does everyone fully understand what they entail or how they will move us forward. And so the best part of all of these is that we can speak to each other. We can debate with one another to say, ‘How come this has happened like this? Why isn’t this going on in that way?’ Likewise, the Indian side often tells us the same. And it is through those exchanges that we can strengthen both of our systems and create an interface that operates more seamlessly with one another.

Q/ But would you say, in your experience, that this is the closest the two countries have ever been?

A/ Yes. And the irony is that every time I think we have done something amazing together, we do better. Therein lies the strength of the relationship. It is a solid, respectful bond where you reach one peak, and you bask in it for just a few minutes, not very long. And then you say, ‘OK, where are the other peaks’? Because we have to keep doing more.

Q/ The UAE chose India as the first partner to sign CEPA, back in 2022. What was the reason that prompted you to select India? Two years later, how do you assess its success?

A/ India has been one of our largest trading partners even without CEPA. So one would think, why go there? We’re doing so well. But that teaches us something―even though things are going well, they could go so much better, looking for new terrain that hasn’t been tapped at all. In this context, I’ll just say green hydrogen, for example. Completely untapped, but something that we are both looking at together.

CEPA was about a transformative approach. It was to say, ‘With a country so large and an economy so diverse, can we afford to liberalise further? What would that look like? What would that mean? And how much would it take from resources, time, etc?’ Two years on, we have double-digit growth. We have sectors that we have opened up to one another that we had not understood before. And most importantly, entities have started to better understand and know each other. So beyond the strong government-to-government relationship, it has been a very strong signal for the private sector and for state-owned enterprises to say and to look at, as they review the roster of potential investment destinations, to say, ‘OK, what can we do more with India?’ So I would consider it incredibly positive. I think what we have to also study is that a lot of entities didn’t know that these opportunities existed. And so this is good, we have to keep advocating for it, keep explaining it, and keep increasing this connection between us.

Q/ We have set a target of reaching $100 billion in non-oil trade by 2030. Are we on track? What are the bottlenecks?

A/ We are on track. If you look at how the UAE’s economy is growing, since the CEPA with India, we have signed CEPAs with Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey and Australia. We were inspired a lot, actually, by what you have done with Australia. We studied your model and met with your teams who did this quite effectively with Australia. In South America, we opened up with Colombia, Chile and Costa Rica. We have a couple of others now, particularly the Mercosur (a South American trade bloc), which we are studying very closely and are hoping that in 2025, we’ll have an agreement there as well. What does this all mean? It means the UAE economy is growing exponentially. And if we grow exponentially, then we can better and more effectively absorb the growth that can come from your market as well.

We are five years out from 2030. We’ve often exceeded expectations, and not just met expectations. I have every confidence we’ll be able to do this with CEPA as well. And I’ll go back to how and why. There are more than 100 flights a day between our countries and we have a positive track record. Again, stumbling blocks notwithstanding, the proximity, the overall mindset, and the strength of the government-to-government contacts give the confidence, and the optimism that the future is bright.

Q/ There are many people who think that the connectivity could improve further, especially the number of flights.

A/ We certainly do. And it’s not an easy conversation with the Indian side, because this sector is also a very complex one for you. So we respect that. But we also are pushing. And those are some of the conversations we’re having in that spirit of ambition. In almost every session, we ask, ‘can we have more seats, because all of the seats are fully booked?’

Q/ What about the future of the rupee-dirham trade agreement, especially in the context of the emerging geopolitical realities? Some say it could challenge the primacy of the dollar.

A/ We have been pegged to the dollar for a long time, since our inception. And we will likely continue to be pegged to the dollar. But we are also members of BRICS. And we also recognise that creating and strengthening regional bonds is going to be very important. The dirham-rupee exchange facilitates [trade]. It is also a cost-effectiveness measure, because you don’t need to exchange effectively [using the dollar]. Despite this agreement having been in place for a little over a year now, it is still growing slowly. How do we jet-fuel this exchange and interaction to fully reap the benefits of what it means to have a rupee-dirham connection? The UAE doesn’t look at binary choices. And so the dollar continues to be important. There were over 53 conflicts that were burning conflicts, and over 200 protracted conflicts last year (2023). So the world is not safe. And that means you stand more closely with your friends and partners. But that does not mean that you reverse what you have been doing for a very long time as well. So it’s that question of healthy balance, which we continue to be deploying.

Q/ You are a new member of BRICS. Joining the group is one way of augmenting your presence on the world stage, and looking forward to multipolarity and multilateral institutions. Does the UAE believe that it is going to be the way forward?

A/ Yes. I think there are growing centres of gravity, not just one centre of gravity or two. And they differ in size and scale. We see the growth of what is called the middle powers―smaller in population, but prominent in economic force. So we have been an active player in the multilateral space. This year was the first year that the UAE was invited to the G7 in Italy. We have been a constant invited guest at G20. And when we were invited in South Africa to join BRICS, we took that opportunity wholeheartedly. I have to credit Team India, who supported our accession. Dammu Ravi, your chief negotiator on the BRICS side, is a highly regarded expert. And those types of forums allow us to better understand as well where we are moving and how we are moving. We hosted COP, another forum for multilateral engagement. We were hosts of Expo 2020 in Dubai which really brought the whole world together to try to address global challenges at a very difficult time in human history because we were still in the middle of a pandemic during that time. But we were able to host a pretty remarkable Expo. And so these kinds of forums signal new and different platforms to deepen ties.

Q/ COP was held this year in Azerbaijan. Developing countries feel that the $300 billion climate finance commitment was just too little, too late.

A/ I can’t speak about COP 29 in detail. But I can tell you in COP 28, the developing countries owned the room. And if you look at our loss and damage fund, which came into effect the first hour after the agenda was approved, it was in the spirit of recognising that those that are most vulnerable are the ones that are facing the greatest risk and the greatest challenge. Now, we are very conscious of not flipping back and forth; we believe in continuity, perseverance and constant effort. The area that I manage in our system, foreign aid development, has a very strong climate component as well. In the UAE, we will continue to listen to, address and build resilience in programmes that we put in place alongside other international partners in the most vulnerable countries.

As we prepare for COP 30 in Brazil, the first and foremost on the agenda is nature and how we preserve the carbon sinks that exist, be it the Amazon forests or the forests in Gabon, Congo or India. These are all conversations that we have been having since before COP 28, and we will be having way after the next COP. But what is so important―a little bit of this was covered in the spirit of Expo, and is part and parcel of the spirit of the UAE as well―is that independent of your wealth, size, or the continent you live in, you have a legitimate voice to not only be heard, but to be integrated in the final consensus, which is why the UAE consensus [of COP 28] was such a celebratory moment, not because it was the UAE consensus, but because everybody felt that it was their consensus, too.

That’s where the magic happens when an effort by somebody else feels as much as yours. And that little bit is also how and why the UAE has 200 different nationalities, despite all of their differences in culture, religion, language, tradition, in social class, they all feel it is their own. The UAE is theirs. It is not an Emirati neighbourhood, or an Indian neighbourhood, or a Lebanese neighbourhood. It is our collective neighbourhood, and that is not easy to do, for sure. And I say it is the decades and decades of institutionalisation in our system that allows for that expression of a church, a mosque and a temple, which we are so happy to host in the UAE right now.

Q/ Mitigating water scarcity is another area in which the UAE is putting in great effort to find new models of international cooperation. It is an issue of critical importance for India as well.

A/ We have often said that water is the new oil. Prime Minister Modi said there will be a tomorrow only if there is water. And in our holy text, the Quran, there is a verse that says that only from water can things become alive. So the sanctity of water, across all of our different religions, faiths and backgrounds is going to determine prosperity in the future. Our entire Arabian Gulf does not have a single river. Today the majority of GCC countries are dependent upon desalination plants for their water needs . So we feel strongly about it. We have worked very closely with the international community, of course, to put water on the agenda at COP 28. So COP28 had a water-focused theme, and so did the Expo.

We are going to be hosting the UN Water Conference in the UAE in 2026. We are looking at ways in which we can apply technology to better understand how to preserve water, generate water, and manage water resources. And this is a very exciting space, but also a very critical space as well. Our conference will be held in December 2026. I have looked at a lot of your water technology companies in India, like those that harvest air to water. So there are a couple of examples where we see that the solution exists, but how do you scale that solution? And how do you make it readily available for others in a cost-effective manner? I think that’s the next leap that we need to take together.

Q/ We see how important people-to-people contact in bilateral relations is. Do you see a larger role for the Indian diaspora in this context?

A/ It is critical because it makes sure that the relationship is not hollow. You can have very strong, overarching government-to-government, state-owned investments. But if you don’t have the layers that glue it all together from a people and human perspective, it is a hollow relationship. Both my parents speak Hindi. And that wouldn’t have happened if there wasn’t this people-to-people presence. From the Indian diaspora, we want to know more and learn more. So celebrations of festivals like Diwali, and understanding the many different types of Diwali. It is not one monolithic celebration once a year. There’s so much more about Diwali. It is also about understanding more about your cuisine, your poetry, your art and your history. We almost feel we don’t need to learn from each other. Because we know each other. We know Indians and you know us. My dad was a football player and he used to come here to India for medical treatment when he had injuries. All of our shopping was done in Bombay. I remember my mother saying about our curtains; those were bought from Bombay. ‘I got a very good discount,’ she would say.

So these types of things opened the path for me to say, take my children to an Indian doctor. There’s no way anybody other than an Indian doctor would treat them. It didn’t come from a vacuum. If my family and their families were not close, I wouldn’t just suddenly wake up and trust the most precious thing to somebody who speaks of a science and a framework that I don’t understand, which is Ayurveda, for example. And so I think this level of continuity brings a soul to a relationship. It brings the heart to it. And hence, it brings resilience. We need to be very mindful and conscious that we have that sense of resilience.

Q/ How inspiring was Firdaus, the all-woman ensemble orchestra led by A.R. Rahman, which performed at Expo 2020? We hear the project was conceived in 2019 during one of your conversations with Rahman.

A/ When we were designing the programme for the Expo, because the UAE is very well known for its amazing infrastructure and incredibly beautiful roads and buildings, we wanted the spirit of the Expo to be as evident as the buildings themselves, because not everything you build is actually visible. So how do we create and design a programme that can bring the world together? I selected it because I wanted it to be only women, not because I am against men. I have three boys. But because I wanted to give a platform and an opportunity for women to explore music under the legend himself, A.R. Rahman.

As Rahman was talking about creating music and what it takes to be able to do so, I was very inspired by saying, as we do the opening ceremony for the Expo, as we partake in different events, as different countries during the Expo want to talk of their national days or their national programmes, we have an orchestra, an orchestra made up of women from all around the world, and an orchestra that focuses primarily on home-grown music that Rahman helped curate and teach. So whether it’s a sitar, the Arabic oud, or the ney, which is like a flute, how do you bring those together? And so the idea of Firdaus was born. Since the Expo, the orchestra has continuously been active. When you see this group of inspiring young women who are, again, from all over the world coming together to create something special, it shows you that by really bringing the right mentorship and the right ambition, you can do so much.

Q/ You studied in the United States, in great universities like Harvard and Tufts, years ago. And you have been serving in the UAE government for nearly two decades. What changes have you witnessed in the UAE, and in the larger Middle East, between then and now, especially in the sociocultural domain?

A/ I went to university when I was quite young. I was also quite young when I was appointed as a minister. And in the last 17 years or so since I’ve been appointed, I would say what has really transformed things is digital technology. And so even in government work, way back then, people did not have as quick access and as much access about who they were meeting as we do now. I remember one example very specifically, which was in 2009 when I went to the Pacific Islands.

I went to Vanuatu, Kiribati, Tonga, Tuvalu and a few others. I went as part of a campaign for the hosting of the International Renewable Energy Agency in Abu Dhabi, led by His Highness Sheikh Abdullah, our foreign minister and deputy prime minister. And I had never heard of those countries before, although I am a student of international affairs. Who are they? What do they go through? And of all of the travelling I have done, and I have travelled the world, I have never felt that I was part of something so special as I did then, in 2009, when I went to the Pacific Islands. And I will tell you why. I was the first Emirati that they had ever engaged with. The first, not just woman, but the first government minister that had come. These islands are sinking, and are facing climate change in an unimaginable way. They would show me their playgrounds which were now all covered in water.

When you hear and see these stories that are so real, I remember their voice when we speak about COP. I remember the homes that they lost. And I think to myself, in five or ten years from now, how and what will further change? Because we have access to these technologies and projections into the future of what’s happening around us, we see things far more clearly. And I hope as well that if you can bring someone’s plight very close to you, you will be driven by the agency to try and make a positive impact. So I just hope that technology brings us closer, not just for the sake of coming close, but also for creating positive change.

Q/ Coming back to the people-to-people connect, what are your views on the potential of the education sector?

A/ The IIT, hopefully the IIM, and the IIFT (Indian Institute of Foreign Trade) are all good seeds that have been planted for us to harvest years from now. And we will see those benefits. And it will be another layer of the strength of the relationship that we have. I am also the chairperson of Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi. And with Sorbonne, we’ve also looked at how we encourage students from India to study at Sorbonne, but not necessarily go to Paris, which is much further and much more expensive. But that very same programmes are being delivered in Abu Dhabi today, closer to home. So it really does bring a very strong mix to the table. Now, I think we need to keep doing more and more of this. And if there are areas I would want to focus more, it would be on research and development. The UAE has developed and strengthened its capabilities in R&D tremendously. Underlying that is the technology aspect, whether it is quantum AI or supercomputing. Those are all very strong pillars in that regard.

the-relationship-between-india-and-the-uae-is-a-testament-to-the-power-of-diplomacy-trade-and-people-to-people-contact

Sat Dec 28 12:29:46 IST 2024

DUBAI

The UAE witnessed an extraordinary Diwali celebration in 2024, rivalling even the most spectacular celebrations in India itself. Organised by Dubai’s economic and tourism department, in collaboration with the Indian consulate in Dubai, the festivities went on for three weeks. Streets were illuminated with dazzling lights, and fireworks lit up the skies―a rare sight in a country where fireworks are usually prohibited in public. The celebrations not only reflected the cultural richness of India, but also highlighted the depth of the long-standing relationship between India and the UAE.

The permission for such grand celebrations, especially the use of fireworks, raises an interesting question: Why are fireworks allowed for Indians when other expatriates are not allowed such privileges? The answer lies in the deep historical and cultural ties between the two nations. For Indians in the UAE, the country has become more than just a temporary home; it is a second home, and for second- and third-generation Indians, it is often the only home they know.

This bond goes beyond recent diplomatic agreements, as it is rooted in a history that spans over 6,000 years. India and the UAE have shared trade routes, cultural exchanges and a connection that predates the formation of the emirates. Before the country’s establishment, the Indian rupee was already being used as a medium of exchange in the region, making India one of the earliest partners in the development of what would become the UAE. This enduring historical connection forms the foundation for the UAE’s recognition of the Indian community, leading to privileges such as the Diwali celebrations.

The India-UAE relationship is reinforced by robust economic cooperation. The India-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), signed on May 1, 2022, stands as a key milestone in the growing relationship. The agreement aims to increase non-oil trade to $100 billion, with an emphasis on the movement of goods and also people, capital, services and ideas. It is a far-reaching agreement that reduces or removes tariffs on over 80 per cent of products, providing a non-discriminatory environment for trade between India and the UAE. This, in turn, has created a clear, transparent framework that improves the ease of doing business.

India is the UAE’s largest trading partner for non-oil exports, contributing nearly 14 per cent. CEPA has facilitated increased trade and also improved competitiveness by benefiting small and medium-sized enterprises, thus making the trade environment more inclusive.

Alongside CEPA, another groundbreaking development in India-UAE relations is the rupee-dirham agreement, signed on July 16, 2023. This allows transactions between the two countries to be settled in rupee and dirham, eliminating the need for currency exchange. Moreover, it facilitates the use of rupee for oil payments. This shift towards local currency settlement is expected to reduce reliance on the dollar and make bilateral trade more competitive. The local currency settlement system, introduced under this agreement, helps lower transaction costs, improves price transparency and accelerates settlement times.

Building on the advancements made by the rupee-dirham agreement, the UAE has introduced its own credit and debit card system, known as Jaywan, supported by licensed technology from the National Payments Corporation of India. With UAE banks now rolling out the infrastructure to accept Jaywan cards and integrate ATM systems for cash withdrawals, the payment landscape in the UAE is becoming increasingly connected with India.

CEPA has also spurred increased cooperation in the gold trade between India and the UAE. Under the agreement, India has committed to importing up to 200 metric tonnes of gold annually from the UAE, under a 1% Tariff Rate Quota. The UAE has become an increasingly important source of gold for India, accounting for over 16 per cent of India’s total gold imports.

Additionally, the UAE’s strategic location serves as a vital gateway for global trade. With its superior air, land and sea connectivity, the UAE plays a crucial role in facilitating re-exports, allowing India to use UAE ports to send goods to other parts of the world. This logistical advantage enhances the UAE’s role as a critical partner in global trade and further strengthens its economic ties with India.

The India-UAE partnership is not limited to trade. Both countries have expanded their cooperation in various sectors, including education, culture, and infrastructure. The construction of Bharat Mart in Dubai will showcase Indian products to the global market, while the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi has opened a campus in Abu Dhabi. Several Indian universities are also establishing campuses in the UAE, fostering educational exchanges between the two countries.

The establishment of a regional office for the Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) in Dubai and the opening of a Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi by BAPS further highlight the cultural exchanges taking place. These initiatives demonstrate the multi-faceted nature of the India-UAE relationship, which continues to grow and evolve. “The relationship and friendship between India and the UAE are historical and it is strengthening day by day,” said M.A. Yusuff Ali, chairman, Lulu Group International. “The visits of UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the UAE have taken this relationship to a new level, further boosting investment and business partnerships.”

the-uae-has-set-ambitious-sustainability-goals-firmly-establishing-itself-as-a-regional-leader-in-environmental-action

Sat Dec 28 12:29:13 IST 2024

In 1992, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, the founding father of the UAE, visited India and planted a golden shower tree at the Rajghat. The gesture honoured Mahatma Gandhi’s legacy, while symbolising the UAE’s commitment to environmental sustainability and its enduring partnership with India. Continuing this tradition, Sheikh Zayed’s son Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, now president of the UAE, planted a molshri sapling at the same site in 2016. Last September, Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan carried forward the legacy by planting another golden shower tree at the Rajghat, reaffirming the shared values of environmental stewardship and strengthening the deep bond between the two nations.

The UAE has set ambitious sustainability goals, firmly establishing itself as a regional leader in environmental action. Importantly, the Indian diaspora, along with Indian tech and business leaders, plays a pivotal role in turning these aspirations into tangible achievements.

The UAE is the first country in the Middle East to pledge net-zero emissions by 2050 and is targeting a 40 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030. The Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park, located in Saih Al-Dahal, approximately 50km south of Dubai, is the world’s largest renewable energy project based on an independent power producer (IPP) model. With a mission to produce 5,000 MW by 2030 entirely from renewable energy sources, this project aims to reduce more than 6.5 million tonnes of carbon emissions annually.

Similarly, Dubai Reef, a sustainable initiative by Dubai Can, is the world’s largest purpose-built reef development. Last October, the project reached a significant milestone with the fabrication of its first 1,000 purpose-built reef modules―a major step towards enhancing marine biodiversity and promoting ecological sustainability.

Chandra Dake, the 45-year-old Indian technologist who leads Dake Rechsand, a Dubai-based company specialising in sustainability solutions for desert farming and water conservation, is an apt example of Indian minds working on sustainable solutions for the UAE. Chandra’s company boasts an impressive portfolio, holding more than 600 original patents. A crucial innovation from Chandra’s firm is “breathable sand”, which is created through a complex manufacturing process that involves adding specific minerals and applying heat to make the sand water-retentive and air-permeable. This sand can be used for planting trees and desert reclamation. Chandra is now raising funds for a massive afforestation initiative in the UAE.

Another variety of breathable sand can be used for a water harvesting concept called sponge cities. Sponge cities encompass extensive areas where rainwater is absorbed by permeable pavers, directing it either to proper sewers or storing it in underground reservoirs. In contrast, breathable sand, used for planting, retains water while allowing for aeration. Meanwhile, a patented ‘honeycomb’ structure, employed in constructing sponge cities, possesses both air and water permeability. Chandra said this concept was being considered by the UAE to tackle the post-rain flooding. “We are exploring the sponge city initiative to harvest rainwater and upgrade the drainage network,” he said. “We believe our technologies remain the best for water conservation and for enhancing greening and landscaping, especially in arid regions like the UAE.”

In early December 2024, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the vice president and prime minister of the UAE and the ruler of Dubai, approved the Dubai Walk Master Plan (Dubai Walk)―an initiative aimed at transforming Dubai into a pedestrian-friendly city. The plan envisions a 6,500km network of modern walkways. Chandra has proposed his technology for the project as well.

Another Dubai-based Indian entrepreneur, Kaustubh Padakannaya, co-founder of the startup Pyse, spoke about the UAE’s suitability as a hub for adopting sustainable solutions. “The speed at which they implement these initiatives is far ahead of many other places, including India,” he said. “A key factor is the country’s smaller size, which allows for faster execution. Moreover, there is a strong top-down push from the government, driving the successful adoption of sustainable solutions.” Padakannaya’s firm is a fintech startup that focuses on democratising access to investments in green and clean energy initiatives. It enables retail investors to participate in sustainability projects that were traditionally limited to high net worth individuals.

“While sustainable solutions are essential, they are often significantly more expensive than traditional alternatives,” said Padakannaya. “Nearly all two-wheelers in Dubai’s market today are used for food delivery and these bikes run on petrol. Although switching to EVs is feasible, the upfront cost is 30–40 per cent higher, creating a barrier to adoption. This is where Pyse steps in,” said Padakannaya. “We finance sustainability-focused projects and lease green assets―such as renewable energy systems and EVs―to clients in Dubai. The key advantage is that clients don’t have to bear any upfront costs. Since green assets are operationally cheaper than traditional alternatives, the lease payments are actually lower than their current expenses.”

Pyse was originally founded in Bengaluru but later moved its headquarters to Dubai. “We had to choose between relocating to Singapore or Dubai,” said Padakannaya. “We chose the UAE because the government is highly approachable and open to new solutions. Cost and feasibility are rarely obstacles―they actively encourage and support businesses with innovative ideas. Moreover, the ease of access to key decision-makers―especially when working on initiatives that benefit the environment and the country―is truly remarkable.”

when-it-comes-to-india-and-the-uae-history-and-future-are-intertwined

Sat Dec 28 12:28:42 IST 2024

In today’s uncertain times, the India-UAE relationship stands as a model, a story like no other. The bond dates back centuries, strengthened by the waves of the Arabian Sea and the Khalasis―an Indian word with Arabic roots―who were seafarers deeply involved in the pearl trade with the Gulf. These historic trade routes and cultural exchanges laid the foundation for the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership we witness today. This is a relationship that is driven by the vision of the leaders and the strong aspirations of the people of the two countries.

The relationship received a fillip when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the UAE in 2015, marking the first visit of an Indian prime minister in 34 years. Since then, he has travelled to the UAE six more times. These visits have been well reciprocated by the UAE leadership. President Mohamed bin Zayed made a state visit to India in 2017 as crown prince, during which the relationship was elevated to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. In 2022, the two leaders issued a ‘Joint Vision Statement’ outlining the roadmap for future-looking partnerships across strategic sectors like energy, defence, health and emerging technology, among others. The last 18 months have witnessed six high-level visits exchanged between the two countries highlighting the strong commitment of the leadership of India and the UAE to this important relationship. Underscoring the generational continuity of the historical ties, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed visited India in September 2024, opening a new chapter in the strategic partnership.

When it comes to India and the UAE, history and future are intertwined. Several decades ago, the Indian rupee was legal tender in the UAE. Today, UPI is widely deployed in the UAE. The national credit and debit card system of the UAE, Jaywan, is based on India’s RuPay stack and has been developed by the National Payment Corporation of India. The two countries have also signed a rupee-dirham agreement to settle cross-border transactions in their respective local currencies.

From the historic trade through dhows, we are moving towards trade through digital channels. Both countries have commenced the work on a Virtual Trade Corridor between them, powered by the Master Application for International Trade and Regulatory Interface (MAITRI). Bharat Mart, which will be established in Jebel Ali Port, Dubai, is another concrete symbol of our great trade relationship as it harnesses the complementarities of both countries. Benefited by the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), the trade between the two countries has already reached $85 billion, making the UAE India’s third largest trading partner and India the UAE’s second largest trading partner. The unique bilateral initiatives will help propel the trade further to meet the target of $100 billion before the 2030 deadline.

During Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled’s visit to India, we embarked upon a new journey of cooperation in the field of peaceful use of nuclear energy and critical minerals. During the visit of Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed in December 2024, an agreement was signed to support the UAE’s polar programme and collaborate in polar research and operations. Collaboration in advanced technologies like supercomputers and innovative health care through genome research is also being explored. These partnerships will help both countries conquer future frontiers in advanced technology, space and defence.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently remarked that India–UAE ties are truly in an “era of new milestones”. Today, the BAPS Hindu Mandir, the first such temple in the Middle East, has become an oasis of tolerance, harmony, pluralism and coexistence. The IIT Delhi-Abu Dhabi campus proudly showcases the joint endeavour by the two countries to invest in future technology and innovation. India’s other premier institutions, like the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, and Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, will soon have their first overseas campuses in the UAE, training Indians and Emiratis together for years to come. These outcomes are the result of the trust and mutual respect enjoyed by the two countries.

However, the real story of India-UAE relations is the story of the people-to-people ties, which continue to remain as one of the strongest pillars. The number of Indians who call the UAE their second home has grown from 2.2 million in 2015 to 3.89 million in 2023. Indians visiting the UAE on tourist visas have risen to 4.5 million in 2023. This growth would not have been possible without the warmth and hospitality bestowed upon Indians by the leadership and the people of the UAE. Similarly, the number of Emiratis who visit India has also been growing steadily since the introduction of the visa-on-arrival facility.

Today, the India-UAE partnership carries the warmth and respect symbolised by the way Prime Minister Modi and President Sheikh Zayed embrace each other. It carries the aspirations and commitment of the people of the two countries and their desire to achieve greater growth and a prosperous and innovative future. For India-UAE ties, even the sky is not the limit.

The author is India’s ambassador to the UAE.

the-week-travels-to-indias-western-coast-which-serve-as-memory-keepers-of-scores-of-afro-origin-men-and-women-siddi-community

Sat Dec 21 18:48:04 IST 2024

Gujarat, Maharashtra, Diu, Karnataka, Goa and Kerala

Six kilometres from the industrial town of Jhagadia in Gujarat’s Bharuch district is a serene hill considered sacred. Part of the Satpura range, it has a cluster of dargahs of Sufi saints of African origin.

At the base of the hill, a large number of devotees live in Ratanpur, a quaint village whose name means ‘the land of gems’. The semi-precious agate stone was mined here to make exquisite beads.

Sidis of African descent form a significant share of the population of Ratanpur. The Africans had arrived centuries ago as sailors, soldiers and slaves. There are fewer than 1.5 lakh Sidis in India, and they are scattered across Karnataka, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Goa. But a vibrant tapestry of rituals, beliefs and legends ties them back to their Afro origin. For Sidis of Gujarat, Diu and Maharashtra, the hill near Ratanpur is the foremost sacred site.

Mahmad Rafik Abubhai Vajugada, a Sidi elder in Jamnagar who has relatives in Ratanpur, had arranged for my stay at the sacred hill. His son-in-law Firoj Malangbhai Sidi drove me to the hill in his autorickshaw. Once a professional dancer, Firoz has performed the Sidi Dhammal dance in more than two dozen countries.

I reached the top of the hill moments before the commencement of loban, a daily faith healing session, and stood looking up towards the dargah of Bava Gor, the most prominent of the Sidis’ ancestor-saints. Rhythmic beats of the mugharman, a traditional drum that is central to Sidi rituals, could be heard.

As I began climbing the 50 steps to the dargah, I remembered a legend I had heard from Yasin Bawa, a Sunni Muslim who looked after the saint’s chilla (satellite shrine) in Kurla, Mumbai. “In the past,” said Bawa, “people accused of robbery or fraud were made to climb these steps with their legs chained. If the accused were innocent, the chain would break because of Bava Gor’s power. If guilty, they would not be able to enter the dargah.”

I entered the dargah wearing a skullcap given to me. “No camera inside the dargah during the loban,” Firoz said.

The dargah’s mujawar, or caretaker, was a Sidi. He moved around the shrine, spreading dense clouds of frankincense. The crowd was unusually thin because it was a rainy Friday evening. On jumerat (Thursday evenings), the dargah throngs with people of different religions, all offering flowers, cloth and coconuts for their prayers to be answered or for expressing gratitude for prayers granted.

Much of the crowd I saw in the dargah was seeking relief from physical and mental pain. As the drum beat faster, many people began to shake their heads and contort their limbs. I stationed myself near the inner sanctum that had Bava Gor’s tomb, which was covered with a green chaddar, flowers and other offerings. Using a peacock feather brush, the caretaker distributed the saintly “healing energy” to the faithful.

Behind me stood a teenager in a thobe, an ankle-length garment with long sleeves. He moved frenetically, muttering incoherence. I was told that it was a case of hajri―possession by evil spirit. At one point, he moved closer to me, sending chills down my spine, but soon moved away and began hitting his own head. He calmed down as the drumbeats came to a halt. The loban had concluded, but a woman who seemed to be in great pain continued to whimper.

I met the woman and her husband the following day. They were Hindus from Uttar Pradesh who had moved to Surat. Like me, they had been staying at the visitors’ quarters near the dargah, but they had been here for the past ten months.

The husband, Mukesh Soni, said they planned to stay there till the annual Urs festival in the Islamic month of Rajab. Urs is the dargah’s most significant celebration―it commemorates the anniversary of the death of Bava Gor around 500 years ago. “We visited many places,” said Mukesh, “but my wife’s mental condition remained precarious. Then a bava from Surat suggested that we come here.”

Faith healing is a popular choice in rural India. On the western coast, there are many obscure shrines that practise faith healing of African-origin. These shrines of Afro-origin saints and deities offer people hope, protection and the possibility of experiencing life-altering miracles. While religions compete and conflict with one another, these ethnic shrines function as syncretic spaces that bring together devotees cutting across class, caste and religion. The stories associated with these shrines, according to anthropologist Neelima Jeyachandran, are “reimagined and reinvented by stakeholders to suit contemporary purposes”.

A result of these reimaginings is that, besides Sidis, a large number of individuals from a diverse range of places and communities now worship the ancestor saints from Africa. “We have faith,” said Mukesh, “in Bava Gor’s power and benevolence.”

THE DIVINE ‘KAFIRS’

A temple near the Kali river at Tariwada in Karwar, Karnataka, looks like a church as well as a mosque. It is the Shri Khapri Deva Temple, the word khapri being a corruption of the Arabic word kafir, which means ‘one without faith’.

Khapri, though, has become a cornerstone of faith in the Karwar region, said Dileep Naik, a Komarpanth Hindu who is one of the seven caretakers of the temple. A 44-year-old IT professional, Naik works from home for an American company. His father had been the deity’s “spirit medium” who interacted with devotees.

Naik said the deity was an African who came to India 500 years ago. “He was a woodcutter who chose a life of celibacy and was known for his selfless nature and willingness to help those in need,” he said. “If anyone lost their way at night, he would guide them back to their home. He lived in the area for more than 40 years. A stone he often sat on is considered sacred.”

Mattancherry near Kochi has a similar legend about a benevolent African guide-spirit. A small shrine at Mangattumukku in Mattancherry is dedicated to Kappiri Muthappan―kappiri meaning kafir and Muthappan meaning ancestor-god. People of all faiths worship Kappiri Muthappan, and on Tuesdays and Fridays, they offer him toddy, mackerel, unsalted fried chicken and cigars. They believe that the Muthappan appears at midnight to partake of the feast.

The offerings at the temple 700km away at Karwar are similar. Around 50,000 devotees visit the temple during the annual Jathra festival in March, and they offer liquor, meat and bidis, and sacrifice hens on the temple premises. In the inner sanctum, there is a stone on which Khapri Deva had sat, and upon it is a black idol of an African figure adorned with flowers.

The Afro-origin community in Karnataka (who spell the name as “Siddis”) is distinct from those in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Diu (“the Sidis”). A DNA study led by sociologist A.M. Shah in 2011 found that the Sidis of Gujarat trace 66.9 to 70.5 per cent of their ancestry to Bantu-speakers of Africa, while the Siddis of Karnataka have 64.8 to 74.4 per cent southeast African ancestry. Unlike in Gujarat, Diu and Maharashtra, where most Sidis follow the Sufi tradition, Siddis in Karnataka harbour a diverse range of belief systems, including Hinduism, Christianity and Islam. There is, nevertheless, a common thread of African traditions that bind them, such as the reverence for Sidi Nash, an ancestral deity symbolised by a sacred stone.

Siddis in Karnataka marry across religions (but rarely do they marry Sidis of western India). For instance, Mohan Ganapati Siddi, a social worker at Yellapur in Uttara Kannada district who accompanied me to the Khapri temple, married a Christian Siddi. His cousin married a Muslim Siddi from Haliyal. “What is paramount to us is the Siddi identity,” Mohan said. “Religion is merely an added layer.”

Mohan told me about a popular Siddi shrine near Yellapur, known as Gudu Gudi Nas, which has traditions similar to Khapri temple. “This shrine is within a reserve forest near Vajralli, and has an ancient idol that resembles the idol in the Karwar temple. Once a year, even non-Siddi devotees gather at Gudu Gudi Nas with offerings that include liquor and ganja rolls,” he said.

In Yellapur, Mohan and I met Ramesh Subba Siddi, a 24-year-old former earthmover operator who is now the priest at Gudu Gudi Nas. He inherited his position as the spirit medium from his late grandfather. “I collect the offerings of villagers―including alcohol and ganja―from their homes and present these to the deity in the forest,” he said. Ramesh said the Siddi deity is an avatar of Shiva, and therefore part of the Hindu pantheon.

While most devotees at Gudu Gudi Nas are forest-dwellers, Tariwada draws mostly coastal communities. During the Jathra festival, the worshippers honour a Catholic Christian from the region by presenting him with all the offerings given to the deity. The belief is that Khapri Deva was a Catholic in his lifetime, and by treating a Christian in this manner, they are essentially honouring Khapri Deva himself.

Naik asserted that the khapri arrived in Karwar of his own volition. It is an interesting claim, as it veers away from the narrative of forced displacement of Africans across continents, and of the Indian Ocean slave trade, and emphasises the dignity and autonomy of the deity as well as the community.

Similar legends asserting the autonomy of Afro-origin saints can be seen among devotees from western India, too. Especially so in Gujarat, which had strong trade ties with Africa, and whose merchants were active in the slave trade. Gujarat, in fact, has the most extensive presence of sacred African shrines. According to Babubhai Sidi, a community elder in Ratanpur, the Sidis in India are the descendants of people who followed Bava Gor from East Africa to Gujarat on a religious mission. He said Gor’s saint-siblings, Bava Habash and Mai Mishra, had come to India to assist him in his mission.

There is no single, monolithic account regarding the arrival of these saints that can be verified for authenticity. Legends depict Gor variously as a Sufi saint, an Abyssinian military leader, a trader, and the inventor of the craft of making agate beads. One legend says he could illuminate the agates with his power of meditation. Intriguingly, many non-Sidi agate traders, particularly those from Khambhat (erstwhile Cambay), revere Bava Gor.

“The variations in stories about Bava Gor can be attributed to the fact that these narratives are rooted in the memories passed down by grandparents or great-grandparents, continuing through generations as oral traditions,” said Beheroze Shroff, a Parsi documentary filmmaker and professor at the University of California, Irvine, who has studied the Sidi community.

According to Shroff, each of the accounts regarding Gor holds significance for the Sidis. “They have creatively and imaginatively embraced Bava Gor as a symbol not only to preserve their dignity but also to construct a history of belonging in India. This is particularly important, given their status as displaced and uprooted individuals who originated from various parts of Africa, often with little knowledge of their specific origins,” she said.

Although Sidis consider Bava Gor, Bava Habash and Mai Mishra as siblings, their legends suggest diverse origins. Bava Gor’s original name, Sidi Mubarak Nobi, indicates that he hailed from Nubia, a region between southern Egypt and central Sudan. Mai Mishra is said to have come from Misr, the Arabic name for Egypt, and Bava Habash from Al-Habash (present-day Ethiopia).

The dargahs of Bava Gor and Mai Mishra in Ratanpur are close to each other, while Bava Habash’s dargah is on a separate hill. Legend has it that the hot-tempered Habash loved solitude, and as he could not stand noisy children, decided to roll away in the form of a flower ball to the nearby hill.

Interestingly, when we visited Bava Habash’s dargah, Firoz’s five-year-old son led the way. At the dargah’s steps, the child removed his footwear with reverence. As I looked inquiringly, Firoz explained: “Over the centuries, Bava Habash has become more tolerant. But even so, nobody is allowed to stay the night near his dargah.”

Thus the legends continue to evolve.

A COMMUNITY OF FAKIRS

In the 15th and 16th centuries, slaves from Africa, particularly Ethiopians in middle eastern slave markets, were brought to India to serve in the growing armies of the Deccan. Unlike colonial powers, the sultanates offered slave soldiers a chance to become free and socially mobile. Islamic law defined the emancipatory right of slaves. Many of them converted to Islam and, through marriage, gradually assimilated into Indian society. Some of them rose to positions of power, like General Malik Ambar of Ahmadnagar and General Sidi Masud of Adilshahi sultanates.

But scholars say there is little “direct link” between sultanate-era African soldiers and the Sidis who now live on the western coast. The soldiers merged with the Muslim elites in India. The Sidis of today, say scholars, are the descendants of a later period of the slave trade sustained by European, Arab and Gujarati merchants.

In the 1840s, the British abolished slavery in India (though African slave import apparently continued till the 1930s). Shroff says many of the freed men and women, as well as those who escaped their princely masters, found refuge in dargahs and chillas of ancestor-saints. Sacred shrines thus became spaces where uprooted individuals from different parts of Africa could come together, form new bonds and become part of a community.

Incidentally, the dargahs and chillas close to Sidi villages bear the local community’s occupational stamp. For instance in Diu, where most Sidis are into fisheries, a saint who has authority over the seas (Dariya Pir) is venerated. The Nagarchi Pir Dargah in Gujarat’s Jambur, 20km from the Gir national park, is surrounded by a community deeply connected to forestry and agriculture. The saint Nagarchi Pir and the Gir lions are believed to share a unique bond; lions, in fact, occasionally grace the dargah premises.

Nagarchi Pir is also considered a sibling of Bava Gor. There is a chilla in honour of Mai Mishra, too, near the dargah. A small stream separates the dargah from the Sidi village, whose residents are primarily manual labourers. The houses are clustered together, because Sidis prefer not to build standalone houses. Despite Jambur’s apparent poverty―many houses were half-built and had low doorways―the dargah and its surroundings were well-maintained and had all amenities.

Studies say that villages near the dargahs helped uprooted people of African descent form a fraternity of fakirs. Their unique rituals, coupled with their exotic physical features, became associated with potent healing abilities. Ritualistic music and dance, known as goma (also called Sidi Dhammal), play a vital role in the Sidi community’s healing practices.

Interestingly, goma bears similarities to ngoma―the ritualistic dance and music accompanied by drumming that is still prevalent in Africa, particularly among those who speak Bantu languages such as Swahili, Xhosa and Zulu. As an umbrella term, ngoma also encompasses healing practices like dream interpretation and spirit possession. In many places, nearby communities look upon Sidi fakirs as embodiments of spiritual powers associated with barkat (abundance) and karamat (miracle healing).

Devotees make offerings that align with a saint’s temperament and disposition―such as colourful bangles for Mai Mishra. There are innovations as well. At a chilla in Dongri, Mumbai, I saw a devotee offering a kit that had beauty-care products―shampoo and talcum powder to coconut oil and fairness cream.

In Ahmedabad, I met Hameeda Biwi Sidi, an 82-year-old spirit medium who lives in the Sidi neighbourhood near the Sidi Sayyid Mosque. During the annual Urs, as the goma intensifies, Hameeda enters a trance state known as hal. “I became a medium for Mai Mishra at the age of seven,” Hameeda said. “When Mai is within me, there is no need for anyone to ask her questions. She knows their concerns without anyone uttering a word.”

In Karnataka, too, Siddis practise faith healing, though with significant differences from such practices in Gujarat. In Uttara Kannada, I saw Siddi faith healers invoking non-Siddi saints as well. A unique example: Rosina B. Salagatti Siddi of Thottalgundi village is a Christian who invokes a Sufi saint known as Doodh Nana. Next to her humble house is a dargah, where she “treats” illnesses ranging from skin problems to mental afflictions.

Rosina wore a bright green sari that matched the colour of the dargah’s walls. She and her brother Rocky had built the dargah, ignoring the opposition of the church to her adoration of a Sufi saint. She said she chose to remain unmarried because of her “commitment” to the saint. “There are people who want to label the healing practices here as demonic. But we are doing nothing harmful; we only help people,” she said.

In Karnataka, Siddis perform traditional dances like phoogidi, dolki, dhammam and sigmo to celebrate festivals, weddings, childbirth and commemorative events. These dances have similarities with goma of the Sufi Sidis, but there are notable differences in the instruments employed and rhythms played. The dances are performed irrespective of religious affiliation, with songs that seek blessings from Bava Gor and the ancestral deity Siddi Nash. In Karnataka, though, Gor is not a Sufi saint; he is a clan leader.

“Most Christian Siddis,” said Mohan, “have two wedding ceremonies: one at the church and another at home in the Siddi way with dhammam.”

THE PERSIAN CONNECTION

After the Arab conquest of Persia in 651 CE, Parsis took refuge in the Indian subcontinent. Like African slaves who were brought to India, Parsis also experienced forced displacement, but their journey in the subcontinent took a different course. While preserving their religious traditions, they assimilated into the Gujarati culture and transformed themselves into an urban community during British rule.

Following the abolition of slavery in the 1840s, the Parsis in Surat and Bombay employed freed African slaves as domestic help. Almost a century later, a segment of their descendants in Bombay once again turned to Africanity―this time for ‘spiritual help’. A Sunni Muslim boy, named Makbul, trained as a fakir under the Sufi master Gul Hazarashah, became a spirit medium of Bava Gor, and came to act as a bridge between two communities still grappling with the effects of their forced displacement.

A Parsi businessman, Dinsaji Kalianiwalla, once met Makbul Bava at the Pedrushah dargah near Bombay’s Crawford Market. Kalianiwalla soon became a disciple, and along with him, more than 200 Parsis began worshipping Bava Gor and listening to Makbul Bava, without rejecting their traditional religion.

As the American psychological anthropologist Tanya Marie Luhrmann wrote, the Parsis were facing social dilemmas in the 1940s and 1950s. According to her, under colonial rule, they felt a sense of purpose as “agents of social change”―they were educated in the British system, but played an important role in the freedom struggle. The end of the British rule in India, she said, suffused them with a “sense of loss”. “Many people either clung to whatever faith they had or were looking outwards for new forms and modalities of faith,” she wrote.

Shroff’s family, too, embraced Bava Gor’s faith. “In the 1950s, my father had depression,” said Shroff. “Back then, depression was not something that was dealt with medically. He looked for a guru. And finally, a Parsi guided him to Makbul Bava.”

Parsis helped rebuild a makeshift chilla of Bava Gor at Kurla that had been destroyed in a cyclone in 1946. “Makbul Bava never asked them to abandon their religion,” said Shroff.

Even today, Parsis throng the chilla, which is also known as Parsi chilla. Parsi prayers are recited here, along with prayers of other faiths. “Following the loban and other rituals, we assemble around the chilla of Bava Gor and the dargah of Makbul Bava to recite Parsi prayers,” said a 65-year-old Parsi devotee from Dadar. “Occasionally, people of other faiths who are familiar with our prayers join in.”

The current caretaker of the chilla is Makbul Bava’s grandson―Yasin Bava, who had told me the legend of the 50 steps in Ratanpur.

THE MEMORY KEEPERS

Unlike other states on the western coast, Kerala does not have an African diaspora―possibly because African-origin people were socially and culturally integrated with the local population. In the coastal areas of Kochi, though, subaltern communities maintain household shrines to keep alive memories of African spirits.

Many of these shrines represent the kappiri spirit in the form of kappirikallu―a symbolic stone much like the ones that Siddis of Karnataka worship. Certain Vannars―descendants of a Tamil-speaking community of washermen who were brought by the Dutch to Kochi from Coimbatore and Tirunelveli in the 1700s―have a tradition of worshipping the kappiri spirit in their homes. They maintain kappiritharas, platforms for the worship of the spirit.

“Every day, we light a lamp or candle to honour Muthappan, who serves as a family guardian,” said Manoj Ponnappan, a 60-year-old Vannar who had worked in the middle east. “On occasions such as weddings or children’s naming ceremonies, we offer dried fish, boiled eggs and bread to Muthappan. Toddy and cigars as well. The head of the family cleans himself before making the offerings, and we invoke the presence of Muthappan and seek his blessings. After a while, the offerings are distributed among the people.”

Manoj and his family follow Hindu customs. They light lamps at the kappiri shrine in the evening, just as they do before Hindu idols. The Vannars rely on astrological calculations to discern the spirit’s preferences. The kappirithara at Manoj’s house is under a mango tree, which he had planned to cut down, but desisted after an astrologer said Muthappan disapproved of it.

A section of the Konkani Vaishya community, too, reveres Muthappan. “We perceive his presence in trees,” said Sivaprasad R. Pai, a Konkani who lives in Mattancherry. “We light candles at the base of the trees and offer primarily vegetarian items such as puttu, banana and milk. Toddy and cigars are not uncommon. After making these offerings, we turn away without looking back.”

Rai’s house has a kappirithara; his father, P. Ramesh Pai, had acquired the plot from a Vannar family on Dhobi Street. “We continue the practice of lighting the lamp for the kappiri spirit every day,” said Pai.

On the Vypin islands close to Kochi, Pulaya dalits have rituals similar to those seen at the Muthappan shrines. Their ‘muthappans’, however, are not kappiris, but their own ancestors. Their offerings include cigars, toddy and meat, and they do the ritual of “spirit possession”. In some sacred groves of Vypin, Kappiri Muthappan is worshipped with other Hindu and ancestral deities.

WATCHFUL PROTECTORS

Farooq Sidi, 41, a gig worker in Ahmedabad, lives close to the famous Sarkhej Roza, a mosque and mausoleum complex where the Sufi saint Sheikh Ahmed Ganj Baksh lies buried. It was Baksh who suggested that Ahmed Shah of the Gujarat sultanate build a new capital on the banks of the river Sabarmati.

Ahmedabad, which thus came into being, has a rich tapestry of Sidi history and legend. Farooq is passionate about preserving it. According to him, Ahmedabad owes much of its prosperity to the Sidis who prevented the goddess of wealth, Lakshmi, from leaving the city.

“During Ahmed Shah’s reign, Sidis guarded all 12 gates to Ahmedabad,” Farooq explained. “Once, in a fit of anger, Lakshmi Devi decided to leave the city. Sidi Sujat, the guard at the Bhadra gate, implored her not to leave until he obtained permission from the ruler. But he had to ultimately sacrifice himself to prevent her from leaving.”

The story has various versions, with different names for the king and the guard. Taken together, they provide subtle insights into the sacrifices that the Sidis have made in service of their rulers.

The legend of the Sidi sacrifice remains relevant in another way, too. “The Sidis, at our own expense, prevented the city from falling into poverty,” said Farooq. “But we continue to be impoverished.”

Kerala, too, has accounts of sacrifices of Afro-origin men and women. In the 16th and 17th centuries, African slaves served Portuguese businesses and households in Kochi. In 1663, the Dutch defeated the Portuguese and many slaves perished. There is, however, no historical records of the number of the dead.

A legend of Kappiri Muthappan suggests that the slaves were actually killed by their masters themselves. As the Portuguese fled Kochi, many of them buried their treasures, and the kappiris were buried alongside to safeguard them. Some people believe that the souls of these men and women still roam the streets of Fort Kochi and Mattancherry.

The police headquarters at Shahibag in Ahmedabad has a graveyard of around 80 afro-origin warriors who died in battle. Among them is the legendary Sidi Sultan, who, according to Farooq, continued to fight even after he was decapitated. The graveyard draws a multitude of devotees, including policemen of various faiths.

The grave of the Sidi gatekeeper who blocked the goddess Lakshmi is in a tin shed behind the Bhadra Fort. Street vendors often use the shed as storage space, even though they revere the martyr. The Sidis hold an annual Urs at the shrine, but they can hardly afford a caretaker to look after it.

The graves of Sidi generals who died defending the Gujarat sultanate are worse off. Near Sarkhej Roza, for instance, is a graveyard where heroes such as Bilal Jhujhar Khan (a general who served the last sultan) are buried. Enter the graveyard at your own peril―feral dogs have become its guardians.

DISSENT AND DISCRIMINATION

In 1986-87, the Sports Authority of India started the Special Area Games scheme, which aimed at nurturing athletes from ethnic groups that had a “natural aptitude” for sports. One of the Siddi athletes selected for training was Juje Jackie Harnodkar Siddi of Uttara Kannada. Juje was among 30 teenagers in the second batch in 1989. But the scheme floundered and athletes who did not meet performance standards were sent back to their villages. The scheme was eventually shut down in 1993.

Instead of returning to his hometown, Juje joined the Bengaluru Police, and later secured a sports-quota job in the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation. “I have experienced discrimination at my workplace,” he said. “I have suffered inordinate delays in processes like passport renewal and police verification. My son has not yet received his domicile status even though he was born in Mumbai.”

The root of the prejudice is that most Indians remain ignorant of their fellow citizens of African descent. As Juje said, stories about them and about the saints and spirits of African lineage can raise awareness and make people kinder and gentler. Narratives about the saints and spirits of African lineage, he said, were crucial for attaining this objective.

“We have no alternative but to challenge the biases,” he said, “because India is our homeland as well. We were born here, and we have no other place to call home.”

debate-over-indus-valley-civilisation-and-aryan-invasion-continues

Sat Dec 21 12:42:37 IST 2024

The most captivating piece of art from an Indus Valley civilisation site, the Dancing Girl, is a 4.1-inch bronze figurine of a slender young woman, with her head held high. Her unusually long left arm, adorned with 24-25 bangles, rests gracefully on her bent knee, while her right arm, with four bangles, is placed on her hip. Her hair is styled into a bun, and a simple bead pendant adorns her neck. The Dancing Girl, without any clothing, conveys a compelling narrative of grace and strength.

This diminutive statue, now housed in Delhi’s National Museum, has elicited countless interpretations by archaeologists, historians, artists and even poets, since her discovery at Mohenjo-daro by archaeologists Daya Ram Sahni and Ernest Mackay in 1926. Their superior, John Marshall, director-general of the Archaeological Survey of India, called her the Dancing Girl, a name that has endured. Some have suggested she might even be a warrior, as her left hand is coiled as though to hold something, perhaps a spear or a baton. Her broad nose and large lips led some to speculate that she may have been of Dravidian or even Baluchi descent.

Wrote Mortimer Wheeler, who served as director-general of the ASI between 1944 and 1948, "A girl perfectly of the moment, perfectly confident in herself and the world. There's nothing like her, I think, in ancient art. We may not be certain that she was a dancer, but she was good at what she did and she knew it." The author Mulk Raj Anand referred to her as Maya in his children's novel, and a clothed version of the statue was chosen as the mascot for the International Museum Expo 2023, held in Delhi.

The unknown girl sparked a frenzy when she was discovered. Nearly a century later, another woman―almost twice her age―was found 800km to the east of Mohenjo-daro, and she, too, took the archaeological world by storm. The DNA study of the skeletal remains of this woman, likely contemporaneous with the Dancing Girl and found in Rakhigarhi, Haryana, marked a momentous occasion in the 100 years since the discovery of the Indus Valley Civilisation.

“She could be 35, attractive with sharp features, and well-built like the present-day women of Haryana, certainly from an affluent background, as 40 burial urns were found beside her,” said archaeologist Vasant Shinde, lead author of the 2019 DNA study. “She had indigenous DNA, the same as that found across South Asia today,” he said, suggesting that there has been genetic continuity up to the present, with some mixing at later stages.

This interpretation of the DNA analysis is contested by some scholars, who argue that the genetic study of a single skeleton cannot settle the historical questions, especially as the earlier Harappan script was yet to be deciphered.

Between these two Indus women―from Mohenjo-daro and Rakhigarhi―lies the story of 100 years since the discovery of a civilisation that pushed India’s history back by 3,000 years. Before the Indus Valley Civilisation was unearthed, the earliest recorded date in Indian history was 326 BCE, when Alexander reached the northwestern corner of India. The new explorations have been a cause of pride, but little is known about the people of the Indus Valley Civilisation.

Since the excavations at Harappa and Mohenjo-daro over a century ago, artefacts and skeletons have been emerging from the subcontinent. In Harappan iconography, while the depictions of women have been varied, the male figurines unearthed have not been as diverse. Some terracotta figurines are shown wearing turbans or headbands, but most are bare-headed.

Along with the Dancing Girl, the most famous figure is that of the Priest King, a 7.1-inch steatite bust featuring a shawl draped over the left shoulder and under the right arm, with a headband. If the Dancing Girl and the Priest King were representations of real people and indeed inhabitants of the same city, did they interact, or was their status defined by hierarchy? The Indus cities were well-planned, with clear architecture and technologies for seals, ornaments, toys, metallurgy and weights and measures. However, they did not have palaces or monumental structures like those in Egypt or Mesopotamia, suggesting a more egalitarian society. Could this have been the earliest sign of proto-democracy?

How men and women were represented and even interacted has been an important area of study. "Terracotta figurines of women predominate at most sites, and powerful female deities are depicted on the seals alongside male deities. These indirect indicators suggest that some women in the cities may have held important social and ritual positions, and that female deities played a significant role in the legitimation of beliefs and political power," said archaeologist J.M. Keyoner.

Clues about their interaction also emerge from the burials. Scholars who used genetic trait analysis have suggested that while women who were blood relatives were buried together, this was not the case for men. "A woman was buried near her mother and grandmother, while a man was buried near his wife's ancestors rather than with his own," said Keyoner.

The Harappan society had a spiritual connection, as evidenced by the numerous seals representing their beliefs in rituals. They also took care to build cities and ensure the well-being of their residents. "The large number of children's toys and requisites, such as feeding cups, discovered in various materials like pottery, shell, and ivory, indicate the existence of a widespread toy industry and the people's care to provide their children with these amenities," said former ASI chief K.N. Dikshit in one of his famous lectures. K. Krishnan, former professor at the Maharaja Sayajirao University of Baroda, argues that the ceramics―a major advancement of the Indus people―found at the Indus sites showed many similarities, sophistication and regional traditions. As factories were unearthed at Lothal and Dholavira, they signalled not only higher craftsmanship but also the presence of some form of able administrative system, which ensured specialists could work on them.

Technological advancements were also seen in hydraulic engineering, as seen in the ‘Great Bath’ of Mohenjo-daro and the dock at Lothal, illustrating their sophisticated understanding of water dynamics, according to archaeologist R.S. Bisht.

The Priest King figurine is distinct from the others found at Indus sites. Was he a cultural export from outside? Archaeologist Massimo Vidale speculated that the Priest King, wearing a ribbon headband with a circular inlay ornament on his forehead, could be part of a broken statue with a missing head found in Shahr-i Sokhta, Iran. He conjectured that the Priest King should be redefined as Bactrian. In fact, a DNA study revealed that the Rakhigarhi woman shared genes with a minority in Shahr-i Sokhta and Gonur, which did not match those of the neighbouring communities. This genetic connection led Indian scientists to propose the ‘Out of India’ theory, suggesting that the Harappans, rather than those from Central Asia (the Aryans), migrated to farther lands.

While it is a matter of speculation whether the Dancing Girl and the Priest King interacted, it is certain that they were separated in 1972. The partition of India and Pakistan in 1947 meant that the main sites of Harappa and Mohenjo-daro went to Pakistan, and they claimed ownership of the artefacts unearthed there. As most of these artefacts were in India at the time, Wheeler presided over the painful division, where even the beads of a necklace were equally divided. However, the Dancing Girl and Priest King remained in India’s possession until the Simla Accord between Indira Gandhi and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1972. The Priest King was handed over to Pakistan under the peace agreement. A replica is now on display at the Karachi Museum. Another, less exquisite Dancing Girl, called the "ugly sister" by some historians, is also at the Karachi Museum. A petition was filed in a Pakistan court in 2016 seeking custody of the Dancing Girl, claiming it as their own.

FINDING THE LOST CIVILISATION

The year 2024 marks the 100th anniversary of the discovery of the Indus Valley Civilisation; Marshall dramatically announced to the world the existence of a new civilisation, describing Harappa and Mohenjo-daro as being similar to Tiryns and Mycenae in Greece. “The comparison was made to excite the interest of scholars all over the world and to concentrate their attention on the fact that the ruined cities of an unknown civilisation had been found,” noted Dikshit.

The discovery of the Indus Valley Civilisation could have been the perfect plot for an Indiana Jones mystery movie. It was a chance discovery, where archaeologists and adventurers were searching for one thing and stumbled upon something completely different. The story can be traced back to nearly 200 years. In the spring of 1829, Charles Masson, a deserter from the British army, recorded some evidence during a visit to the area. He mistakenly identified Harappa as the capital of king Porus, whom Alexander had defeated in 326 BCE. Two years later, in 1831, Lieutenant Alexander Burnes visited Amri (now in Sindh, Pakistan) and termed it an archaeological site. Then came Alexander Cunningham, the first director general of the ASI, who saw merit in studying these sites for clues to Buddhist history as recorded by Chinese travellers Faxian and Xuanzang. His visits took place in 1853 and 1856, by which time the site had largely disappeared, as bricks from Harappa were removed to build the 100km Lahore-Multan railway. He did, however, find seals that were documented as evidence.

The most fascinating period came in 1920 when Marshall asked Sahni to excavate Harappa and, a year later, another ASI official, R.D. Banerji, to excavate Mohenjo-daro. Both filed reports of their discoveries, but the results were delayed as Marshall had travelled abroad. In 1924, when he finally correlated the findings of the two sites, he called a meeting of his archaeologists at Gorton Castle, the ASI’s headquarters in Shimla. Excited by the findings, he rushed to London to publish the results even before visiting the sites. It was only a week later that the civilisation's age was pushed back by another 3,000 years, as British Assyriologist and linguist A.H. Sayce wrote about the close resemblance between Indus Valley artifacts and Sumerian antiquities from southern Mesopotamia.

Marshall employed over a thousand local labourers at Mohenjo-daro for the excavation. What Marshall found is celebrated even in Tamil Nadu, where the state government announced installation of his statue, as he linked the civilisation with Dravidian stock. The story of the Indus Valley Civilisation is a fascinating work of Indian archaeologists such as Sahni, Banerji, Dikshit, and M.R. Vats, who excavated the sites and expanded our knowledge.

Today, nearly 2,000 settlements of the Indus Valley Civilisation have been discovered, spread over 6.8 lakh square kilometres―twice the size of ancient Egypt or Mesopotamia. Five urban centres are particularly significant: Harappa, Mohenjo-daro, and Ghaneriwala, all in Pakistan, and Rakhigarhi and Dholavira in India.

THE BIG MYSTERY

The Indus Valley Civilisation is like a great mystery novel. Unlike its contemporaries, such as Mesopotamia and Egypt, which left behind records of their rulers once their scripts were deciphered, the Harappan Civilisation remains shrouded in mystery, despite renewed efforts to decode its script. What is particularly fascinating about the Indus Valley is the new research that continues to add to the existing body of literature on the subject.

A 2023 study by software engineer Bahata Ansumali Mukhopadhyay, published in Nature, argued that the signs inscribed on the seals were primarily used to enforce rules related to taxation, trade, and access control within the mercantile society of the Indus Civilisation. She suggests that the seals may have functioned as trade or commodity-specific licences issued to tax collectors, traders, and artisans. "The seal iconographies might have represented the emblems of the guilds, rulers, or governing bodies."

Many scholars argue that the Harappan script should be read from right to left, and the absence of bilingual texts raises the possibility that the Indus inscriptions were intended for a small group within the mercantile community. Earlier analyses by Finnish Indologist Asko Parpola and Iravatham Mahadevan suggested a linguistic affinity between the Harappan inscriptions and Dravidian languages. The ubiquitous unicorn seal may have functioned as a form of certificate or passport within the Indus Valley Civilisation.

THE ARYAN QUESTION

One of the most contentious theories surrounding the Indus Valley Civilisation is the idea of an Aryan invasion―where pastoralists from Central Asia supposedly imposed their 'superior' Aryan culture on the subcontinent. The first person to propose such a theory was Ramprasad Chanda, an aide to Marshall, who suggested that there was a struggle between outsiders and the inhabitants of Harappa. Australian archaeologist Gordon Childe later offered a similar thesis. In 1850, German philologist and Orientalist Max Müller first introduced the idea of the Aryan race moving into India.

Wheeler, the flamboyant British archaeologist, interpreted the discovery of several skeletons at Mohenjo-daro as evidence of a massacre by invaders. He blamed the Vedic god Indra (who represented the Aryans), stating, “On circumstantial evidence, Indra stands accused.” Wheeler, like Chanda, relied on the Rig Veda, which describes Indra as a fort-destroyer. However, Wheeler and Chanda later modified the theory about the invasion.

Archaeologists have debunked the invasion theory, pointing out that there was no evidence to support it, and suggesting that it was a colonial construct meant to imply that, like the British, superior culture had come from outside in the past as well. No signs of invasion or violent upheaval have been found in the archaeological record. The arrival of Indo-European languages in India, coinciding with the decline of the Harappan Civilisation, suggests a migration rather than an invasion, as these languages show a strong affinity with Sanskrit.

This remains a contentious issue, particularly for nationalists who argue that Vedic culture originated from the Harappans. They refer to various seals and connections between the Rig Vedic texts and excavated artefacts and sites. Many of these sites are located along the dried-up Saraswati River, which is mentioned in the Vedas, leading some to refer to the civilisation as the Indus-Saraswati Civilisation. Social media has become a battleground for nationalists, who criticise "leftist" historians for discussing the invasion theory or the later mass migration of Aryans into the subcontinent.

FINDING THE ROOTS

There is, however, one point on which viewpoints from all sides converge: the major migration that occurred from Africa over two million years ago. Around 12,000 years ago, two groups of people separated―one moving towards India and the other towards Central Asia. Demographic changes took place after the decline of the Indus Valley Civilisation, which are now being analysed through technological advancements, particularly DNA testing.

The discovery of the Rakhigarhi woman has been key to understanding our ancestry. This finding excited scientists, geneticists, archaeologists and nationalists alike. The woman's genome matched those of 11 others from Iran (Shahr-i Sokhta) and Turkmenistan (Gonur) sites that had trade connections with the Harappans. Shinde’s study found that these 12 individuals shared a unique ancestry, with ties to Southeast Asian hunter-gatherers and an Iranian-related lineage specific to South Asia. Crucially, the study showed no evidence of ancestry from steppe pastoralists (Aryans), supporting the idea that this group had not yet reached South Asia.

According to genetic studies, steppe-related ancestry only entered India around 1500 BCE. This has led to the argument that Indo-European languages must be indigenous to the subcontinent. This remains a point of contention that divides historians and archaeologists. However, the data is based on a limited number of samples, and there are concerns about potential contamination. The study concluded that present-day South Asians share the same genetic heritage as the Harappans, further complicating the debate.

THE MYSTERIOUS DECLINE

By 1900 BCE, the Indus Civilisation began to decline. The reasons for this are varied, ranging from climate change and shifting river courses to dry weather, tectonic shifts and a decline in trade. The decline was gradual. A dark period followed, lasting until more refined forms of Indian culture began to emerge, marked by the rise of the Mauryan empire. The first signs of a script appeared with the Ashokan pillars scattered across the subcontinent.

This "dark period" has been explained by some archaeologists in light of the discovery of a chariot in Sanauli, Uttar Pradesh. Archaeologist Sanjay Kumar Manjul has argued that the chariots, made of wood and copper, suggest that chariots were present in India along the Indus Valley Civilisation. These chariots, pulled by horses―a feature absent in the Harappan period―became more prominent in the Ganga plains during the decline of the Indus Civilisation. There may be more such sites waiting to be discovered, which could shed light on this enigmatic period and help explain how the Indus Civilisation gradually faded.

Ongoing DNA studies are expected to shed light on many elusive aspects of this historical era, while the findings may spark even more intense debate.

Gregory Possehl, the late American expert on the Indus Valley Civilization, described its people's “ideology” as “nihilistic”. He noted that the Mature Harappan period marked a deliberate break from the Early Harappan past, with a shift to a new symbolic system and way of life. A key aspect of this shift was the preference for founding settlements on virgin soil. For instance, Mohenjo-daro was likely a “founder's city”, built from scratch, unlike Harappa, which retained an Early Harappan presence. Possehl highlighted that 755 of 1,058 Indus sites were built on fresh ground, while 324 of 523 Early Harappan sites were abandoned before the Mature Harappan period. This pattern underscores the Indus people's tendency to break from their ancestral past by creating new settlements. This, too, could be a reason for the decline of the civilisation.

The Indus Civilisation holds clues to our past, where the final word is yet to be spoken.

the-scarcity-of-weapons-and-indicators-of-dictators-in-harappa-suggests-a-culture-that-minimised-violence

Sat Dec 21 15:37:16 IST 2024

A woman whose lower half is that of a tiger. An Indian sphinx! That’s a supernatural image found in Harappan seals, indicating that the cities that thrived 4,500 years ago in the northwestern part of India had mythic imagination. Contemporary civilisations like Mesopotamia (Iraq) and Egypt had many more such supernatural images.

So I have always wondered how the Harappans imagined the world. What gods and goddesses did they worship? Or was their world-view, like Buddhist and Jain mythology, devoid of a great creator figure who fashioned the world? Instead, did they believe that nature is eternal? Did they venerate celibate sages who helped them cope with existential angst?

Mythology can generally be divided into three types: polytheism, monotheism and atheism. When the British began ruling India after 18th century, they believed that history followed a linear trajectory: from primitive polytheism to refined monotheism, culminating in ultra-refined atheism. Rise of Christianity in the Roman Empire after 300 CE was seen as the end of paganism. The 17th century Enlightenment was seen as the end of religion and the birth of reason and rationality.

In the 19th century, the British translated ancient Indian texts and excavated ancient Indian historical sites. They tried to give India a history based on their framework. They argued Veda was the polytheistic phase and Gita was the monotheistic phase. Buddhism was the atheistic phase but it was crushed by the Brahmins. Now, the British were completing what Buddha began―introducing rationality. The British also were introducing something new―science.

When archaeologists discovered Harappa 100 years ago, they assumed it represented the polytheistic phase of Indian civilisation. But was it populated by the Vedic people? Brahmins said yes. They still say yes. The British, however, merged the excavations with the newly emerging Aryan race theory and argued Aryans invaded India, wiping out Harappan cities, enslaving the dark people, thus establishing the caste system. And so the seal showing a man meditating with animals around him was identified as ‘Pashupati-Shiva’ who opposed the Vedic yagna. This was all very convenient. Harappa was identified as the Dravidian Shiva-worshipping civilisation destroyed by the Indra-and-Vishnu-worshipping Aryans leading to the rise of the caste system. This thesis is popular even today.

Those who ‘debunk’ Aryan invasion theory forget to clarify that the Aryans did immigrate to India, with horses and chariots, 500 years after the Harappan cities collapsed. They did marry local women, adopted their language and culture, and eventually compiled the Veda between the Indus and the Gangetic basins.

We need to step away from the colonial toolkit and the postcolonial push back of nationalists. We need to ignore the popular mythological fictions found in Pakistan and India. The Muslims explanation for Harappa (ancient cities wiped out by Allah for practising idolatry) is as fanciful as the sanatani explanation (ancient city of Daksha and Shiva, a Tibetan migrant who brought horses). We need to look at Harappa with a fresh pair of eyes. The Harappans had no horses. Their mythology was vastly different from that of the Aryans. It was an urban mythology, a mercantile mythology, a world-view that shunned military solutions, a mythology that sought to create collaboration between communities living over 1,000km apart. Mythology is a mobilisation tool, binding people with beliefs. It needs to explain why Harappan cities were highly organised and functional, featuring trading hubs, gated communities, walls and regulated by administrative seals indicating financial transactions. There were more secular seals than those suggesting supernatural themes, indicating a mythology with minimal overt religious elements.

Most people are familiar with the Pashupati seal and assume Shiva was worshipped in the Harappan cities. However, Shiva is a deity associated with the wilderness and the protection of domesticated cattle, and there is no Shiva without Shakti. The Pashupati seal belongs to an urban ecosystem, and the animals depicted on it are not domesticated cattle but wild animals. These same animals appear on seals seemingly tied to financial activities. It is likely that these animals were totems of mercantile clans trading with the Middle East. The seal might represent a gathering of rival clans mediated by a priest-king figure adorned with buffalo horns and bangles, suggesting a form of androgyny. The pose is undeniably yogic, but does that make him Shiva?

In one seal there are images of seven people dancing near a tree from which a goddess appears. Is it a goddess? Or just a priestess, like a Buddhist yakshi clinging to a tree? The tree was sacred―the pipal, the neem, the shami. Trees that are sacred even today. There are tigers on the seals, not lions, which appear much later in the Ashokan age (300 BCE). The famous unicorn finds mention in Buddhist poetry, where its solitary horn is linked to the solitary monk.

Curiously, Harappa has no romantic images of couples, like those found in later Buddhist and Hindu shrines. The animals are all male and each of them can be traced to a Jain Tirthankara. There are images of a woman separating a pair of tigers. Such images are found in Mesopotamia. They are also found on the western coast of India, in Ratnagiri, indicating Stone Age ideas. Is the woman controlling wild territorial beasts? Or arguing a case for collaboration over competition, trading over raiding? Why do we assume earlier civilisations were savages? Why could Harappan cities not be followers of a monastic-mercantile model, that we later find in India. Oldest Buddhist and Jain sites, nearly 2,000 years old, are all on trade routes.

Harappa was part of the Bronze Age trading network. It thrived for 500 years, engaging in trade with the Middle East. Cities in Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Sindh and Gujarat exported cotton from India, lapis lazuli from Afghanistan and tin from Central Asia to Mesopotamia over river and sea. Its cities had gated communities, much like the ‘pols’ built in 17th century Gujarati trading cities.

This trade diminished as demand fell when the Sumerian cities were overtaken by the Akkadian empire, and new trade routes bypassed the Indus River, connecting Central Asia directly with Mesopotamia. Climate change may also have contributed to the decline of Harappan cities, alongside shifting trade routes and falling demand in Mesopotamia, as well as the migration of horse-domesticating tribes from Russia. It is now accepted that the Aryans arrived much later, about 20 generations after the Harappan cities had declined.

What stands out about Harappa is its highly organised culture, which lacked monumental architecture intended to intimidate. Its modular, utilitarian design and consistent seals found across cities over 1,000km apart suggest a unified world-view or at least an overarching philosophy that integrated smaller communities with diverse practices and beliefs. Sounds so much like contemporary India.

The scarcity of weapons, armies and indicators of monarchs or dictators suggests a culture that minimised violence, using trade as a tool to avoid conflict. Notably, the only seals depicting violence show women separating two fighting men. Earlier archaeologists assumed these depicted men fighting over a woman. But now we need to challenge this patriarchal gaze that views male as ‘priest-king’ and female images as ‘dancing-girls’. We need to ask ourselves why the earliest images in the ancient world depicting an anti-violence stance should not be considered the ‘Ahimsa’ seal. The obsession with Veda means even today there are American Hindu computer engineers trying hard to link Harappan script with Sanskrit. But in all probability the images are emojis, not letters. This does not stop a rival group from seeking Tamil in those very same symbols, since we find Sumerian words for sesame and ivory very similar to Tamil words for sesame and ivory.

Overemphasis on Vedas, which appeared in their current form 1,000 years after the Harappan cities declined, has led to indifference towards Sangam poetry, written in Tamil 1,500 years later and 1,500km away in South India. Sangam poetry describes five landscapes―deserts, fertile river valleys, forests, mountains and sea coasts―all found in Harappan regions. Each landscape is associated with a deity and mood. Sangam poetry also references North Indian animals like the yak and the double-humped camel, which are mentioned in the Vedas as well.

Colonial and post-colonial historians, obsessed with kings, wars and conflicts, missed the mercantile-monastic lens through which India’s history can be re-examined. In the 21st century, Harappa offers a remarkable starting point for Indian culture. These cities gifted us masala, sesame oil, gold touchstone, measuring systems, conch shell bangles, sindhur and colourful beads―artifacts that continue to define Indian culture today. Not everything India needs Vedic, masculine or military roots.

Pattanaik is a mythologist, author and speaker. His books include Ahimsa: 100 Reflections on the Harappan Civilization.

Ahimsa: 100 Reflections on the Harappan Civilization

By Devdutt Pattanaik

Published by HarperCollins India

Pages 272

Price 1315

indias-collective-cultural-history-is-shaped-by-continuous-experiences-stretching-back-to-prehistory

Sat Dec 21 12:44:43 IST 2024

On September 20, 1924, Sir John Marshall, director-general of the Archaeological Survey of India, made a historic announcement in the Illustrated London News: “First light on a long-forgotten civilisation: New discoveries of an unknown prehistoric past in India.” What his team stumbled upon was not just a localised culture, but a civilisation that radically pushed back the known history of India.

Before the discovery of the Indus Valley civilisation, the origins of any civilised society in India were always traced back to the Vedic age. The ruins of Harappa and Mohenjo-daro altered this perspective. The discovery pushed back the origins of ancient Indian civilisation far beyond the Vedic period (1500 BCE).

The significance of Marshall's announcement can be fully appreciated when we note that Alexander Cunningham, the first director general of the ASI, had missed the opportunity to investigate the first Harappan seal, discovered by his associate Major Clarke. Cunningham had erroneously concluded in 1872 that the seal was “foreign to India”. In 1902, viceroy Lord Curzon appointed Marshall as the new head of the ASI. Curzon preferred the 26-year-old archaeologist over Vincent Smith, an Irish Indologist and historian, who had suggested in his book, The Early History of India, that “the materials available for the study of early Dravidian institutions are not yet sufficiently explored, and the historian’s attention necessarily must be directed chiefly to the Indo-Aryan institutions of the north, which are much more fully recorded than those of the south”. Had it not been for Marshall, the historic announcement of 1924 might never have been made.

Before revisiting the events, let us consider the undeciphered Indus script, which has been linked to all possible linguistic affinities, including Austro-Asiatic, Dravidian and Indo-Aryan. Some have even fancifully linked it to the Easter Islands. The complete absence of information about this vast and complex civilisation in any of the historical records of ancient India, including the Vedic texts, adds to the mystery of the Indus Valley Civilisation.

The first opinion on the authorship of the Indus script came from Suniti Kumar Chatterji, a linguist from Bengal. In his article, “Dravidian Origins and Beginnings of Indian Civilisation”, published just months after Marshall’s announcement, Chatterji argued in favour of Dravidian authorship, citing the presence of the Brahui language and mother goddess worship in the region. He connected the findings at Adichanallur in Tamil Nadu’s Thoothukudi district and categorically denied any Aryan involvement in the creation of the Indus Civilisation.

In addition to Marshall and Chatterji, several scholars, including Piero Meriggi, Henry Heras, Yuri Knorozov, Kamil Zvelebil, Iravatham Mahadevan, Frank Southworth, David McAlpine, Walter Fairservis and Asko Parpola have contributed to the Dravidian hypothesis, taking multiple factors into account and suggesting that the Harappans likely spoke a proto-Dravidian language.

The presence of Dravidian loanwords in the Rig Veda, recognised by scholars of Sanskrit and Dravidian languages, was used by Parpola to suggest the strong possibility that Dravidian languages were spoken in the Indus-Harappan regions, where the Rig Veda was composed in the second millennium BCE. Notably, Brahui, spoken in Balochistan, is the only surviving Dravidian language in the region. Parpola also pointed out that retroflex consonants―linguistic features that distinguish languages of the South Asian linguistic area―are not found in Indo-Iranian languages. Some retroflex consonants were exclusive to the Indus Valley and Dravidian-speaking areas, suggesting a linguistic connection.

Furthermore, Parpola noted that the proto-Indo-European language had a dozen related terms for wheeled vehicles, a reflection of the chariot culture that arose in the Eurasian steppes, where horse-drawn chariots were first invented in the third millennium BCE. Horses only arrived in South Asia after 2000 BCE (as confirmed by bone analyses), and they are not depicted in Harappan art. Clearly, the Harappans did not speak Indo-Iranian languages in the third millennium BCE. As a result, Parpola concluded that Indo-European languages could not be used to decipher the Indus script.

However, Chatterji's assertion was challenged by scholars like B. N. Dutta and P. V. Kane, sparking a "scholarly dispute" over the authorship of the Indus script.

The centenary year of the Indus Valley Civilisation, 2024, started with an ironic twist. David Frawley, a US-based author, announced that the civilisation should more appropriately be called the "Vedic Saraswati Civilisation" or the "Saraswati-Sindhu civilisation". He further argued that the term 'Harappan' was misleading, as it did not reflect the true centre of the civilisation, which he believed to be the Saraswati River, along with its Vedic and Indian connections.

Archaeologist Disha Ahluwalia responded to Frawley by pointing out that using the term 'Harappa' to represent the civilisation was not incidental. It was carefully chosen, following the universally accepted 'type-site' convention, and highlighted that a 6,000-year-old civilisation cannot be expected to conform to modern-day political boundaries or disputes.

It is important to remember that 'politics over the past' is not a new phenomenon. There are precedents in the field of Indus script. In 1999, historian N.S. Rajaram and palaeographer Natwar Jha claimed to have “deciphered” over 2,000 Harappan seals. But, as expected, their claims were swiftly dismissed by scholars like Michael Witzel and Steve Farmer. A notable instance of this was the misinterpretation of a "unicorn seal" as a "horse seal", which was ridiculed as the “Indus Valley Piltdown horse”―a reference to the infamous Piltdown Man hoax.

Genetic studies have shed new light on the ancestry of the people of the Indus Valley. DNA analysis of the Rakhigarhi skeleton shows that its people were genetically closer to ancestral South Indian populations. This suggests that the people of the Indus Valley Civilisation were distinct from the populations associated with the later Vedic culture, which arrived in India from the Eurasian steppes in the second millennium BCE. The close genetic match between Rakhigarhi’s DNA and South Indian tribal populations further supports the theory that the Indus Valley Civilisation may have spoken an early Dravidian language. International researchers, analysing ancient DNA and genomic data, have shown that steppe ancestry was a significant part of the genetic make-up of present-day South Asians, with steppe populations responsible for spreading Indo-European languages across much of Eurasia.

It is disheartening that leading scientific and technological institutions in the country are risking their reputation by promoting myths as history and pseudoscience as fact.

History is not a frozen entity, but a flowing river. What we call today the collective cultural history of India is the result of continuous experiences stretching back to prehistory. In this journey, the pre-Harappan, Harappan, and post-Harappan periods, the second urbanisation in the Gangetic valley and the “carried forward memories” of the Indus past as recorded in the Sangam corpus and ancient Tamil texts, must all be considered. Any attempt to build a singular narrative around India's plural identities is fraught with danger.

India’s pluralism cannot be described as a ‘melting pot’ or a ‘salad bowl’. The most fitting metaphor to describe India's pluralism―vibrant, inclusive, interdependent, and functional―is a ‘rainforest’.

The mapping of the past through the construction of a master commemorative narrative is what Claude Lévi-Strauss calls “the pressure of history”. It is crucial that we handle this “pressure of history” with care and responsibility.

Balakrishnan, a former IAS officer, is the author of Journey of Civilisation: Indus to Vaigai.

historian-archaeologist-and-author-dr-nayanjot-lahiri-interview

Sat Dec 21 17:44:31 IST 2024

Interview/ Dr Nayanjot Lahiri, historian, archaeologist and author

The discovery of Indus Civilisation was a significant event in the history of Indian archaeology. As we commemorate 100 years of this discovery, how do you view this journey?

The journey is very different from what one usually encounters. It was 90 years in the making. It is also not a saga around one individual and his work. There are several heroes here―an Italian linguist-turned archaeologist, a brilliant Bengali scholar, British gazetteers and Archaeological Survey men, and above all, John Marshall, the director general of the ASI. These characters quite unexpectedly became heroes in the sense that it was in the course of their normal archaeological diggings that they discovered clues which would eventually change the way the Indian past was visualised. This means that it was an institutional achievement of the ASI.

This civilisation has cities and sites in both India and Pakistan. An appropriate tribute would be to have an exhibition where objects of the Indus Civilisation which were divided after partition are brought together. Partitioning of the collection in the way in which it was done―where some objects like the Mohenjo-daro girdle and a necklace with beads of gold, agate and jasper were divided down the middle―is unethical. They should be viewed as they were originally in both India and Pakistan.

How do you think colonialism shaped our early understanding of this civilisation?

Actually, the discovery of the Indus Civilisation was seen in a way and was written in prose that was ‘uncolonial’. The birth and the character of the civilisation was seen as entirely indigenous. This is what Marshall wrote: ‘…this forgotten civilisation, of which the excavations of Harappa and Mohenjo-daro have now given us a first glimpse, was developed in the Indus valley itself, and just as distinctive of that region as the civilisation of the pharaohs was distinctive of the Nile.’

Where the character of the government in British India is worth highlighting is in relation to the build up towards the discovery. As early as in 1907, Marshall was keen to excavate Harappa but this was waylaid by something as mundane and frustrating as budgetary constraints. The price for acquiring the mounds of Harappa was beyond the budget of the ASI. Non-commercial departments like the ASI worked on very small budgets.

Along with Marshall, which other archaeologists would you consider as pioneers deserving recognition and celebration?

A discerning archaeologist like Daya Ram Sahni and a brilliant one like Rakhal Das Banerji, who had, within a few years of each other, uncovered the relics entombed in Harappa and Mohenjo-daro respectively; alongside, a debutant like Madho Sarup Vats, who first saw the cultural congruences between the two cities which went beyond the enigmatic seals; and the unfortunate linguist-turned explorer Luigi Pio Tessitori, who excavated seals of Harappan antiquity from the earth of Kalibangan but never lived to tell their tale.

How do you view the role of Indian archaeologists after independence in studying the Indus Civilisation?

Post-independence, Indian archaeologists like Amalananda Ghosh, S.R. Rao and others played a stellar role in discovering Harappan sites in India. In fact, the ASI made the search for Harappan sites within the national borders a national project―to be carried forward by Indian archaeologists.

Also, there were important excavations which tried to fill the gap between proto-historic and early historic India. There was Ropar in Punjab and Hastinapur in Uttar Pradesh where the timelines revealed that they stretched from proto-history till the medieval period. Another major achievement was the body of research that revealed a steady occupation in different parts of India by a variety of cultures and people. Some of this work was done by universities, especially Deccan College, Pune, and MS University, Baroda.

Have successive Indian governments been supportive of archaeological excavations and research?

Yes, I don’t think there has been a dearth of funds for research. It is just that the ASI is burdened with a lot of other work. As a consequence, publications have lagged behind and that is a weakness that needs to be tackled.

How ‘ancient’ is ancient India? What are the oldest known findings, and which new areas should researchers focus on to decode its antiquity further?

A very early chronology for Tamil Nadu from the prehistoric site of Attirampakkam has emerged. So, our prehistoric ancestors there have been shown as being present some 1.5 million years ago. Ancient India certainly goes back to that time.

If we are looking at new areas where researchers can possibly decode the antiquity further, the Sivalik range and the Narmada area would be very promising. Above all, we need more scientific dates. If India has a rich and continuous prehistoric record, the urgency of comprehensively generating associated scientific dates for this record needs to be realised―which requires many more laboratories where chronometric dating on archaeological samples is regularly done.

Based on current research, what do we know about the eating habits of the Harappan population?

Harappan food was rich in all kinds of fleshy delights. Indeed, with an impressive variety of meats, fish and fowl, the cuisine of Harappan city dwellers would be considered a gourmand’s delight even today. Plant remains from Harappan sites reveal the entire repertoire, from cereals and lentils to fruits and vegetables, and even the spices used for seasoning them.

Before giving a graphic description of the nourishing non-vegetarian fare that they delighted in consuming, perhaps I should mention how food remains are studied. Within the material culture that has survived, there is the garbage of everyday life found at archaeological sites around the production and consumption of food –vast quantities of broken and discarded pottery, chewed and charred animal bones, sundry cereals and seeds of fruits and implements used in producing and processing food. Such artefacts are now studied through scientific techniques that can even indicate whether the stone tools were used to cut meat or wild grass, and whether grinding stones mashed mangoes or cereals.

In India, unfortunately we don’t get direct evidence of a meal ie., of what ancient people consumed a particular time on a particular day because this comes from the stomachs and the poop of past people. Neither of these have survived in archaeological contexts here. Coprolites ie., fossilized potty have survived elsewhere, and the largest number of such specimens are found in the South Florida Museum in the US of A.

Occasionally, a single sample on a site will yield very large amounts of material. At the Harappan city of Surkotada, charred lumps of carbonized seeds were discovered from an earthen pot. Two of the charred lumps yielded nearly six hundred specimens, an overwhelming majority of which were from wild plants. Only about 7 per cent were identified as being of cereals. The cereals were millets, wild and cultivated, wild grasses, nuts, weeds, etc. This cannot give clues to the relative importance of different cereals because the sample only reflects a moment in time. Ideally what an archaeologist needs is a larger number of samples from a single period on the site. This is what provides insights into diet over time.

Plant remains from Harappan sites reveal the entire repertoire, from cereals and lentils to fruits and vegetables, and even the spices used for seasoning them. Recognizing grains is easy and has been done for nearly a century since the discovery of Mohenjo-daro and Harappa, because burnt cereals survive rather well and sometimes also leave imprint on clay. Among vegetables and fruits, it is usually their seeds that are identified. More recently, the archaeologist Arunima Kashyap recovered and identified at Harappan Farmana (in rural Haryana) starch granules from pots, grinding stones, and teeth, showing the processing, cooking and consumption of mangoes, bananas and even garlic. What was left over after the household ate was evidently fed to their animals, since the same starch granules were scraped off the teeth from cattle remains found there.

Lahiri is professor of history at Ashoka University and previously at Delhi University. Her books include The Archaeology of Indian Trade Routes, Finding Forgotten Cities, The Decline and Fall of the Indus Civilization and Ashoka in Ancient India.

pakistan-needs-to-unlock-the-immense-potential-of-archaeology

Sat Dec 21 12:46:02 IST 2024

LAHORE

Pakistan rightfully takes pride in being the custodian of one of the world’s most advanced and ancient civilisations―the Indus Valley Civilisation. Not only does it represent the largest and most sophisticated of its kind in the ancient world, it also serves as a cornerstone in our understanding of early urbanism, trade, and technological innovation.

Sir John Marshall, credited with the discovery of the Indus Valley Civilisation, played a key role in establishing its historical significance. Equally significant were the contributions of Rai Bahadur Daya Ram Sahni and Rakhal Das Banerji. Their excavations at Mohenjo-daro and Harappa uncovered key archaeological evidence, shaping our understanding of the civilisation.

After the partition of India in 1947, Pakistan inherited many important archaeological sites, including Mohenjo-daro and Harappa. Initially, however, it lacked a formal governmental structure dedicated solely to archaeology. The ministry of education and culture took on the responsibility of overseeing the protection and management of archaeological sites and museums. However, the absence of a specialised and organised department meant that archaeological work was often fragmented and lacked coherence.

In the absence of a formal department, many early archaeological efforts relied on the support of international missions and foreign scholars. One such mission was the American School of Oriental Research, which played a key role in studying the Indus Valley Civilisation. American archaeologist George F. Dales conducted surveys and excavations at Harappa and along the Makran coast during the 1950s and 1960s. Notably, he excavated Sutka Koh and Sutkagendor, the earliest known seaports of the Indus Valley Civilisation. Dales was actively involved in the interpretation of findings from Harappa and was among the first to propose that the Indus Valley Civilisation had its own script, which remains undeciphered.

The Pakistan government established the department of antiquities in 1956, which later became part of the ministry of education. However, it was not until the creation of the department of archaeology and museums in 1974 that Pakistan witnessed a significant shift towards a more structured approach to archaeology. The department spearheaded several large-scale archaeological surveys and excavations across Pakistan, discovering and documenting ancient sites from the Indus Valley Civilisation. One such site of great significance is Kot Diji in Sindh province. Discovered and excavated by F.A. Khan in 1955, it represented early signs of urbanisation, craft production, and planned settlement around 3000 BCE.

Rehman Dheri, located in the Dera Ismail Khan district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, was discovered by Ahmad Hasan Dani, the founder of the archaeology department at Peshawar University, and later excavated by a team of archaeologists led by Farzand Ali Durrani in the 1980s. Like Kot Diji, Rehman Dheri showcased features related to early Harappan phases, confirming the indigenous roots of the Indus Valley Civilisation.

The French Mission, under the leadership of Jean François Jarrige, was instrumental in exploring Balochistan in the late 20th century. He discovered and excavated the famous archaeological site Mehrgarh, which dates back to around 7000 BCE, making it one of the earliest sites of the Neolithic period in the region. This site highlights the cultivation of barley and wheat, the domestication of cattle, and a shift from nomadic to settled lifestyles.

In the 1980s, an Italian archaeological and anthropological mission, led by Valeria Piacentini, conducted an extensive survey in the Makran region. In 1989, while serving as the government representative on this mission, I witnessed the discovery of the first sherd of the Indus Valley Civilisation, found in the natural section of Miri Kalat, just a few kilometres from Turbat. This site was later excavated by Roland Besenval, a renowned archaeologist and team leader of the French Mission, between 2004 and 2006.

Michael Jansen, a renowned German expert, made significant contributions in the 1980s, focusing on the documentation and conservation of Mohenjo-daro. Over the years, the site had suffered due to environmental factors. Jansen's work was very important in documenting the site, preserving the ruins, and stabilising the structures to prevent further deterioration.

The Harappa excavation project, which provided significant insights into the Indus Valley Civilisation, was initiated by Robert J. Dales in 1966. His work laid the foundation for subsequent research on the site. After his contributions, the excavation and research at Harappa continued under the leadership of Richard Meadow and J.M. Kenoyer, both of whom contributed significantly to the study of the site and the broader Indus Valley Civilisation. Kenoyer’s contributions have been fundamental in understanding Harappan craftsmanship, especially in relation to bead-making, metallurgy and pottery.

Archaeology is being taught in universities across Pakistan, with institutions in all three provinces offering programmes. In Punjab, two universities focus on this field, as do two universities in Sindh and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Notable contributions have come from Peshawar University and Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur. The archaeology department at Punjab University is comparatively young, but has made significant contributions, particularly on one of the major cities of the Indus Valley Civilisation.

The department of archaeology at the University of Peshawar, established by A.H. Dani in 1962, is renowned for its significant research, particularly on the site of Rehman Dheri. It is also recognised for the consistent publication of the well-known journal Ancient Pakistan on an annual basis.

Shah Abdul Latif University flourished under the leadership of Nilofar Shaikh. The department has conducted numerous surveys across Sindh province and is especially known for its excavations at the Indus Period mound of Lakhanjo Daro. It used to publish the research journal Ancient Sindh.

The department of archaeology at the University of the Punjab was established in 2004. In 2011, with generous funding from UNESCO, a field survey was conducted in the Cholistan desert. This led to the first-ever detailed documentation of Ganweriwala, the third major city of the Indus Valley Civilisation. Among the rare artefacts recovered was a broken clay tablet, measuring 2cm in length and 1cm in width. On the one side it depicts Lajja Gauri, a Hindu deity, while the other has three well-known graphemes of the Indus script. This discovery marks the first-ever identification of this particular deity in the urban centres of the Indus Valley.

Despite Pakistan being the inheritor of three major urban centres of the Indus Valley Civilisation, the country has produced only one internationally recognised expert, Muhammad Rafique Mughal. His fieldwork along the dry bed of the Hakra River in the Cholistan desert stands as an invaluable resource for future generations. In his advanced years, he recently led an archaeological investigation at Ganweriwala. It is anticipated that his forthcoming report may unveil new insights into the Indus Valley Civilisation.

Pakistan’s department of archaeology and museums has played a crucial role in preserving the country’s cultural heritage, establishing several site museums and overseeing numerous excavations throughout its tenure. However, following the 18th amendment to the constitution of Pakistan in 2010, the role of the federal department of archaeology and museums was confined to Islamabad. As part of this shift, separate departments of archaeology were established in each province, granting them greater control over local archaeological and cultural heritage.

While this constitutional change has had many positive aspects, the field of archaeology and museum management has experienced a noticeable decline. Since the implementation of the amendment, no major archaeological projects have been initiated at the national level. Nonetheless, the role of UNESCO remains vital. In November, UNESCO organised a workshop at Mohenjo-daro, where experts from across the country enhanced their knowledge and skills.

It is hoped that, in the years to come, the provincial departments of archaeology will develop to the level of the federal department of archaeology and museums, enabling more effective care, investigation and preservation of the Indus Valley sites―potentially surpassing the achievements made prior to the 18th amendment.

Finally, I write with great respect and a deep sense of responsibility, drawing on my 37 years of experience in the field, to humbly suggest that greater attention and support be given to the archaeological sector. It is my observation that despite its immense potential, archaeology remains one of the least prioritised fields in both policy and investment.

Dr Farzand Masih is professor & head of department of history & Pakistan studies, Forman Christian College, a Chartered University in Lahore.

archaeologist-vasant-shinde-interview

Mon Dec 23 18:09:47 IST 2024

Archaeologist Vasant Shinde led the excavation of Rakhigarhi (Haryana) and co-authored two landmark papers published in Cell and Science, in 2019, based on the DNA analysis of a 4,500-year-old female skeleton recovered from the site. The study grabbed eyeballs as it provided the first genetic insights into our ancestry, and the findings were included in NCERT textbooks. However, it also sparked a debate, with some scholars being divided over the interpretation of the data, especially in relation to the contentious Aryan invasion or migration theory.

Shinde, who also served as the vice-chancellor of Deccan College, is overseeing the establishment of a national maritime museum in Lothal, a massive project expected to open within a year. In an interview with THE WEEK, Shinde spoke about the significance of Rakhigarhi, its most famous woman and addressed lingering doubts about the findings. Excerpts:

Q/ Why is Rakhigarhi so important?

A/ There was no clear idea about the size of Rakhigarhi before our excavations. The site is spread over 500 ha, which is double the size of the biggest known Harappan city of Mohenjo-daro.

When Bhiranna (also in Haryana) was excavated, it [was found that] its antiquity was 6,000 years old, but there was criticism, mostly from foreigners, that it cannot be that old. So, we accepted the challenge.

After excavating other sites, we came to Rakhigarhi. Now we know that the beginning of the Harappan culture goes back to 6000 BCE. This is important because we did not have such early dates earlier.... The Harappan culture was growing simultaneously in all regions, and there was no one particular centre as such. We always knew that it emerged from the earlier Harappan phase, but we did not know how the transformation took place. How the material culture has transformed.

Q/ What answers did Rakhigarhi provide?

A/ We found good evidence of the gradual growth of the Harappan city.... In the case of architecture, we found that they began with simple, circular pit dwellings. Four or five dwellings formed a cluster. So each one used for a different purpose, be it for sleeping, as a kitchen or for storage. This is how they started in 6000 BCE.

In the next level, maybe in around 5500 BCE, they continued to build circular huts but not underground. Then in the third phase, we find proper rectangular Harappan structures. So we find that the Harappans started using building material like bricks in proper ratios, [and they had] toilets, bathrooms and even tandoors. In the fourth stage, there is some modicum of planning as structures are arranged in a linear pattern, and roads and streets started coming up. In the fifth phase, full-fledged townships emerge.

Similarly, in the case of ceramics, the pottery we found in the lower level was handmade, coarse, not well finished, not well painted. Gradually, the pottery got refined. By 2600 BCE, it becomes classical pottery.

Q/ What does Rakhigarhi tell us about its people?

A/ The only way we can know [their life] is to get their DNA, study their genetic history. Who were these people? Some scholars said Harappans came from outside and developed the cities. Some said they were indigenous people. But scientifically, nothing was proved. We could tackle only one issue, the other is about the script, which was not deciphered and is an ongoing issue. Our purpose in Rakhigarhi was to study its people through their DNA.

Q/ How did the process of DNA extraction happen?

A/ I excavated the site of Farmana [in Haryana] in 2006.... We did not know what precautions to take while collecting samples. We dug up 70 burials at once and kept them open for two months. So whatever DNA was there, escaped. Subsequently, I came in contact with some Korean geneticists, who then guided us to make sure that there was no contamination. We used PPE kits and different tools for each burial.

But when we analysed the DNA, surprisingly, we found some elements of East Asian people. The Harappans never had contact with that region. Then we realised that one of our students involved in excavation was from Korea. So sensitive is the DNA.

Q/ Then how were you successful?

A/ We excavated 60 burials in Rakhigarhi. In 59, we did not find anything, because the climate in India is not conducive for the preservation of organic matter, including DNA. Then we analysed the last sample. And surprisingly, we found a good amount of authentic DNA. She was 35 years old.

We took the help of scientists from different institutes like CCMB (Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology), Harvard and labs in Korea. We also realised that if only Indians published the study, international scholars would again doubt it. We published the results in September 2019. In November, at an international conference in China, they recognised our research as one of nine breakthrough research [papers] worldwide.

Q/ What more do we know about the Rakhigarhi woman?

A/ She was from an affluent family as we found a lot of burial pots around. She was a good-looking woman because her features are sharp. She was tall, maybe around five and a half to six feet. She was well-built like modern Haryana women.

Q/ Can you take us through the study’s major findings?

A/ It took us back almost 12,000 years, [when] hunter-gatherers somewhere in Northwest [Asia] split into two groups; one came to South Asia and one went to Iran. Both of them had common ancestry, so you find some [similarity in] genes between the early population in Iran and India.

But where the [first group] went, they mixed with the Anatolian (modern-day Turkey) people. The group that came here remained independent. And their genes started getting mutated. It formed what we call ancient ancestral South Asian [genes]. Those were the distinctive genes of the Harappans and Indians.

Q/ What do you mean by Harappan and Indian genes?

A/ So, now we know that these were the Indian people. For the past 12,000
years, there is no discontinuity in our genetic history. But at the same time, we find some mixing of genes from different regions.... 25 to 30 per cent genes found in the Harrapan people were ancient ancestral South Asian genes, the genes of the Indians. Then perhaps 2 per cent Central Asian, 3 per cent Iranian; these people had contact with these regions, so genes got mixed up. The process continues till today. The strong indication that we are getting from this research is that the majority populations of South Asia have the same source. So all of us, right now, no matter the religion or language, we are the descendants of the Harappans.

Q/ But people in India look so different from north to south.

A/ Genes have nothing to do with that. It has to do with geography, climate,
food habits and with whom the mixing was happening more. For example, the people from the south mixed more with Southeast Asian people. They have still preserved more African genes. So because of that, they look different. People from the northern part have more affinity with Iran and Central Asia.

Q/ You had talked about the Aryan issue after the study was published.

Because of this study, the whole Aryan hypothesis collapsed. Because, firstly, the hypothesis was based on flimsy ground. There was no solid evidence. First some scholars said that Aryans (came from Central Asia) and killed [Harappan] people. Later, their opinion changed and they said large-scale migration took place because of which there was a change. People have been coming and going. The Mughals came, the British came.

But suppose the Aryans had come, two things would have happened. If they came from Central Asia, they could have brought with them their material culture and planted it here. That is human tendency. Like when we go and settle in America or Europe, we preserve our culture and heritage there. We don't forget our roots. Second, if they had [invaded] and killed the local people, then they could have [mixed with people and] introduced new genes in South Asia. There could have been breakage in the genetic history of South Asia. But it never happened. So, the Aryan invasion or Aryan migration theory collapses. People have come and gone. People have also settled here. They were absorbed into the Indian society. That is the base of Indian culture. Even the Mughals tried, but our roots never changed.

Q/ It was a contentious issue?

A/ That was a concocted story. The British wanted to divide and rule here. They wanted to justify that they had come from Europe to rule us. They would say: “You have been ruled by many people before also. So why you are making an issue out of that?” As people came from outside, they were the “advanced” people, they taught Indians everything. We have Rig Vedic texts, [and] I am trying to find corresponding archaeological evidence. I am getting it at the Harrapan level. The Saraswati river is frequently mentioned in the Vedic texts. It is mentioned that there are flourishing settlements in their cities in the Saraswati basin. We have evidence of fire worship from Kalibangan.

Q/ After the DNA study was published in 2019, some scholars criticised you for deviating from what was actually said in it, particularly your reference to the Aryan question.

A/ Let me clear that. We published two papers. There was a mention that after 2000 BCE, there is more inflow of people from Central Asia. It was by mistake, I accept that. We used the word Aryan there. It was said in a flow and it was a mistake on our part. That research was based only on genetics, but here I am using archaeological data also to understand the growth. Evidence indicates that Harappans began to go out to Iran and Central Asia.

Q/ Are you talking about the Out of India theory?

A/ We have found two sites—Shahr-i-Sokhta in Iran and Gonur in Turkeministan. Both sites were excavated and Harappan material was found there. They found skeleton remains and the DNA was extracted... This means that the Harappans began to go there and started mixing. More research is going on in different institutions and labs.

Q/ The absence of horses in the Harappan civilisation is often cited as proof that the Aryans did come from Central Asia and brought with them the animal.

A/ Now this issue is important. As far as the horse is concerned, the first site that was studied was Surkotada near Dholavira; Hungarian archaeo-zoologist Sandor Bokonyi said there were horse bones and a domesticated horse. On the other side, a group headed by Richard Meadow from Harvard University studied the same bones and said they were of a wild donkey. I go with Bokonyi as at Lothal and Mohenjo-daro, some figurines of horses have been reported.

Q/ What about Vedic gods?

A/ It was said that the Aryans invoked the Vedic gods. Shiva was found. Indra was worshipped. They did a lot of nature worship. Agni was worshipped.

Q/ Did caste have its origin in the Indus civilisation?

A/ No. It came later, some 2,000 or 2,500 years ago. It started when emperors like the Mauryans came. There was division of labour. So certain work was assigned to a particular group and it became the profession; they were thereon known by that profession only.

the-week-speaks-to-a-nasa-astronaut-and-a-russian-cosmonaut-for-an-in-depth-understanding-of-the-making-of-a-space-traveller

Sat Dec 14 16:16:29 IST 2024

MULTIPLE THRUSTER
MALFUNCTIONS. Helium leaks. In the context of a space mission, all that sounds rather alarming. But, not for experienced astronauts. American astronauts Sunita Williams and Barry ‘Butch’ Wilmore arrived at the International Space Station (ISS) in June after “managing” such issues. The two former Navy officers recently completed six months in space on a mission originally intended to be for a week, after their capsule was deemed unsafe to return them to earth. The duo’s return is now scheduled for February 2025. Eight months of extended stay in space (NASA does not like ‘stranded’ or ‘stuck’), even with enough supplies, may seem like an unwelcome prospect for the uninitiated, but astronauts, evidently, are built different.

“Living in space is super fun,” Williams told students from the Sunita L Williams Elementary School in Needham, Massachusetts―her hometown―on December 4. Her mission partner sees it as just being on “a different path”.

As NASA administrator Bill Nelson put it in the wake of the duo’s extended stay: “Space flight is risky, even at its safest and even at its most routine, and a test flight by nature is neither safe nor routine.”

That is precisely why the making of an astronaut is so crucial.

February 27, 2024, was a momentous day for India. On that day, the four gaganauts training for the Indian Space Research Organisation’s Rs20,000-crore Gaganyaan programme were introduced to the nation by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Group Captains Prasanth Nair, Ajit Krishnan, Angad Pratap and Wing Commander Shubhanshu Shukla (now group captain)―test pilots of the Indian Air Force―were given “astronaut wings” by the prime minister. They have finished preparatory training at the Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Centre in Russia, the facility where India’s first space traveller, Rakesh Sharma, prepared for his 1984 voyage.

The centre, located in Star City, approximately 30km north of Moscow, is named after Yuri Gagarin, the first person to journey to space, and has state-of-the-art technology, including comprehensive simulators. It provides extensive survival training for a variety of potential landing scenarios, such as mountains, forests, marshes, deserts, arctic and maritime. The gaganauts have completed 13 months of intensive training at the centre and multiple stages of theoretical and physical preparations in India, which included over 200 lectures on engineering topics related to space flight. They have also completed 39 weeks of intensive crew training activity and have participated in test missions. ISRO is now pursuing a joint mission to the ISS with NASA and US private firm Axiom Space, with at least one of the four gaganauts-in-training expected to be part of the voyage (Shukla has been designated “prime astronaut” for the mission).

Countries that pioneered space exploration select both military personnel and civilians for space missions. India has picked IAF test pilots to be gaganauts, and it is easy to see why. They are well-suited to the demands of the training, being both physiologically and psychologically attuned to functioning under extreme scenarios. They have experience flying different types of aircraft and acquaint themselves with new systems quickly.

The health tests which were part of the selection process included thorough cardiovascular assessments, vision tests requiring 20/20 results (correctable with glasses), hearing tests and neurological evaluations. The ability to cope with prolonged isolation and stress was gauged through psychological assessments. The entire process included multiple stages of screening and several rounds of interviews with expert panels.

The initial training of astronauts focuses on understanding space systems, spacecraft operations, orbital mechanics and mission planning. This foundational knowledge is crucial for the successful execution of space missions. Training in robotics includes the use of robotic arms and other automated systems on the spacecraft, which are essential for various tasks such as docking and repairs. Medical training is provided to ensure astronauts can handle emergencies, perform CPR, tend to wounds, and utilise on-board medical equipment.

Advanced training involves extravehicular activity (EVA) training, where astronauts learn to spacewalk, use EVA suits and tools, and perform repairs and maintenance outside the spacecraft. They also receive training to conduct and manage scientific research in microgravity, covering a wide range of experiments in biology, physics, and materials science. Survival training, apart from diverse landing environments, involves physical endurance, navigation skills and tactics.

A critical part of the training is simulation, which uses microgravity simulators like parabolic flights and neutral buoyancy pools, and high-fidelity simulators that replicate conditions for practising launch, docking, re-entry and emergency procedures.

As India continues its preparations for Gaganyaan, which has been expanded to include eight missions―four by 2026 and the remaining by 2028―THE WEEK spoke to a NASA astronaut and a Russian cosmonaut for an in-depth understanding of the training of space travellers and their experiences on missions.

“THE FOOD WAS QUITE NICE”

Nicole Stott has two space flights and 104 days in space under her belt, as a crew member on both the ISS and NASA’s retired Space Shuttle programme. She was the tenth woman to spacewalk, the first to operate the ISS robotic arm to capture a free-flying cargo vehicle and the first to paint with watercolours in space.

Before her selection in 2000, Stott was an engineer in the Space Shuttle programme for more than a decade. One of 17 astronaut candidates chosen out of 9,000 applicants, Stott remembers the process clearly, including her final interview. “The aim [of the interview] is to know you as a person and why you want to go to space for an extended period,” she told THE WEEK. “If things go wrong, how are you going to react, how will you be as a crew mate to the rest of the crew.”

Her training included flying in T-38 jets, simulation and learning to spacewalk, the operation of robotic arms, getting used to space food and living in Aquarius, an undersea research station (off the coast of Florida) for 18 days. She said Aquarius was the experience closest to living and working in space. “I am a recreational scuba diver and was used to such an experience,” she said. “The Aquarius experience was aimed to take a trainee out of the comfort zone and to understand how to work better to solve problems. It is about the size of a big school bus and sits on the sea floor [at a depth of about] 65 feet.” She said that while the lab had normal oxygen flow, those inside cannot go out without donning special suits. “It is an extreme environment and one cannot swim to the surface to escape it, because, once you are down there for an hour, your body is saturated by nitrogen and you might kill yourself if you attempt to swim.”

All through her training, Stott knew she may not get to fly at all―there are times when a trained astronaut may not go on an actual mission. She had to wait nine years before her maiden space flight in 2009. Stott recalls her feelings at the time of that thrilling first flight. “I was not afraid, but I thought about my family,” she said. “My son was seven when I flew for the first time. I knew that everything will be fine. I got to talk to them as soon as I got to space. But, it is still difficult [not to think of family] as you strap into a rocket. Once you are strapped in, you go from zero to 17,500 miles an hour, and, very quickly... it takes about eight and a half minutes to get to space.” She says the simulation does a good job of replicating the experience in space.

Stott is all praise for space food. “At the space station, the food was quite nice and we had variety,” she said. “It is like camping food; most of it has the water sucked out of it, or like military rations and ready to eat. There are no big refrigerators, but, at the space station, it is easy to resupply from the ground.”

At the fully solar-powered ISS, there is a daily work schedule, which, Stott says, is similar to how things are on earth. There is a two-hour exercise schedule to maintain bone and heart health and planned meals throughout the day. There is also an eight-hour sleep schedule. “I used to sleep comfortably in my individual crew compartment―it is the size of an old phone booth. It is cool, dark and has nice air flow.”

The schedule for each astronaut is decided by the ground station. The tasks include conducting experiments as directed by scientists on earth and maintenance work, which sometimes necessitates spacewalks. Stott’s “incredible” experience of spacewalking left her wanting more. “I wish I could have done another one,” she said. “You get a whole different view of the earth and the sun. One needs to ensure that one is hooked to the space station and not going to float away. We are trained to do that and there is a jet pack and we are trained to fly back in case we lose control.”

She said the ISS had all the required medical equipment to take care of any medical emergency on board. “We also check the health of our fellow crew mates,” she said. The astronauts always have the option of talking to doctors on the ground.

Interestingly, the supplies from earth rarely includes fresh water, which is generated on board, from recycled urine, sweat and condensation.

Stott said the most complicated aspect of crewed space missions is re-entry. Kalpana Chawla and her fellow astronauts had died in 2003 when the Space Shuttle Columbia disintegrated as it re-entered the atmosphere. “She was one of the humblest human beings I had ever been blessed to meet and I am very grateful to have known her; very sad that she is not among us any more,” said Stott. Elaborating on re-entry, she said that the process is respectful, deliberate and diligent. “Falling from space back to the earth’s atmosphere is a pretty extreme thing,” she said. “The heat, the dynamics of it, the precision is just amazing.”

“I WAS OVERWHELMED WITH JOY”

Cosmonaut Sergei Nikolayevich Revin served as a crew member on board the ISS in 2012. The Russian spent 124 days, 23 hours and 52 minutes at the ISS. Revin is not fluent in English, so his interaction with THE WEEK and translation was coordinated by Natalina Litvinova, president, the Global Union of Genesis, Russia.

Like Stott, Revin, too, was an engineer before he was selected to be a cosmonaut. He said his training programme was fascinating and that he took multiple tests, both in Russia and in other countries, and also studied different training modules and systems. “We had many workouts and regular flights, during which aerobatics were done,” he told THE WEEK. “We also lived in harsh environments, such as the desert and the tundra. It was difficult, but very exciting and interesting.”

Revin highlighted the importance of nutrition and detailed the steps that went into ensuring that the cosmonauts were comfortable with the food they would have to eat in space. “We had preliminary tasting of dishes,” he said. “We had a 10-point scale and indicated our preferences and this was taken into account when preparing the menu for the flight period. Usually, these are various freeze-dried products and canned food. We also consumed lots of milk, cottage cheese, and cheeses.”

He praised the simulation and training protocols at the Yuri Gagarin Cosmonaut Training Centre and at the various foreign training centres. “The conditions are as close as possible to real conditions,” he said. “The main aspect is to work with on-board systems and also work in zero gravity.”

By the time space travellers get to the ISS, they have undergone so much training that life on board the ISS is “almost routine”, to use Revin’s words―wake up at 7am, exercise, eat, work and lights out at 11pm (the ISS observes Greenwich Mean Time). But, the flight to space, he said, is an experience to cherish for a lifetime. “Literally in nine minutes, I was in space,” he said. “The work at the ISS was interesting and we had an important responsibility, but it was during the flight that I was overwhelmed with joy. The earth is beautiful.”

navigating-the-challenges-of-prolonged-stay-in-space-from-space-sickness-to-increased-risk-of-cancer

Sat Dec 14 16:14:40 IST 2024

COSMONAUT SERGEY KORSAKOV, 40, spent more than six months on the ISS in 2022. He says it was one of the most incredible experiences of his life, but is quick to warn of the effects of an extended stay in space on the body and mind.

“Physically, the microgravity environment leads to muscle atrophy and bone density loss (up to 1 per cent per month), as the lack of gravitational force reduces the need for the body to support itself,” he told THE WEEK. “Additionally, fluid shifts can cause facial puffiness and increased intracranial pressure, sometimes leading to vision problems. The radiation exposure in space is also higher, which increases the long-term risk of cancer.”

It is well-known that astronauts are required to exercise daily. Korsakov explains why that is so key. “Resistance and cardiovascular exercises are crucial to counteract the effects of microgravity,” he said. “I used to engage in regular exercise routines using specialised equipment to maintain muscle mass and bone density.” He also stressed the importance of nutrition. “A diet rich in calcium and vitamin D helped maintain bone health,” he said.

The effect on circadian rhythm is another concern. “There is lack of natural light cycles and the monotonous environment can disrupt circadian rhythm, potentially leading to sleep disorders,” he said, adding that ensuring sleep hygiene by managing light exposure and using sleep aides when necessary can help.

Korsakov adds that the isolation, confinement and distance from earth can contribute to stress, anxiety and loneliness. “The constant need for vigilance and the high stakes of the mission can contribute to mental fatigue and cognitive decline over time,” he said. Staying in regular contact with mission control and family helped Korsakov, besides engaging in hobbies and leisure activities. He also got psychological support via regular consultations.

Post-mission rehabilitation programmes, said Korsakov, were essential to recover from the physical de-conditioning experienced in space. “These typically include physiotherapy and gradual re-adaptation to earth’s gravity,” he said. “Psychological support continues after the mission to help cosmonauts reintegrate into life on earth and process their experiences.”

Another important step is monitoring and correcting vision alterations caused by the shifting fluid in the body putting pressure on the optic nerve. Fluid redistribution in microgravity can also affect cognitive function. Fluid levels normalise within a few days of returning to earth, typically, but astronauts may still require assessments and support.

Radiation exposure is another significant concern. Despite the protection offered by the ISS, astronauts are exposed to higher levels of cosmic radiation because of the lack of the shield that is the earth’s atmosphere. This can damage DNA and increase the risk of cancer. Long-term medical surveillance is necessary to monitor potential health issues arising from this exposure.

The brain being confused by the change in gravity leads to space sickness―nausea, vomiting and headaches. However, this condition does not last long. After a few days in space, the brain adapts and space sickness usually goes away. Sometimes, being back on earth can cause a similar condition called gravity sickness. Another condition that goes away as the body adjusts in space is swelling in the mucous membranes of the nose, leading to stuffy noses.

After returning to earth, astronauts may also feel dizzy when they stand up―a result of a form of low blood pressure. This happens because of the earth’s gravity making it harder for the heart to pump blood up to the head, compared with space.

It is expected that Sunita Williams and Barry Wilmore will return early next year. They will undoubtedly be put on a comprehensive health and wellness programme to tackle these multifaceted challenges. The duo’s experience underscores the importance of ongoing research and development on countermeasures to ensure the well-being of astronauts during and after their missions. As we continue to push the boundaries of space exploration, understanding and mitigating these effects will be crucial for the success of future long-duration missions.

astronauts-safe-landing-after-space-travel

Sat Dec 14 16:15:14 IST 2024

WHEN METEOROIDS ENTER the earth’s atmosphere and burn up, they are called meteors (those that survive become meteorites). Meteors are almost entirely vaporised and the bright trails they leave are called shooting stars. Being an eye-catching phenomena, shooting stars have become the subject of much superstition―like the belief that seeing them can bring good luck.

Luckily for astronauts, scientists do not set much store by luck. They rely on precision and cutting-edge technology to complete the challenging task of entering the earth’s atmosphere from orbit.

A series of carefully calculated manoeuvres ensure that the spacecraft/crew module is at the perfect angle to re-enter the atmosphere to use atmospheric drag to slow down the craft. The friction generated when it collides with air molecules creates intense heat―more than 1,000 degrees Celsius. “The sophisticated heat shields are typically made of materials designed to absorb and dissipate heat,” said space expert Girish Linganna. “A common method is ablation. Ablative shields are designed to burn away in a controlled manner. The outer layer vaporises, leaving a cooler layer beneath. This process protects the craft and the crew inside.”

As the craft decelerates, crew experiences g-force several times the earth’s gravity.

“At specific speeds, a series of parachutes will deploy,” said Linganna. “First, small pilot parachutes will stabilise the module, followed by larger drogue parachutes that will further slow it down. Finally, the main parachutes will open, ensuring a gentle descent and then the splashdown in the sea.” Many modern spacecraft are designed for touchdowns on land. They might use additional systems like engines that fire in the direction opposite to motion to ensure a soft landing.

Linganna said the Gaganyaan crew module will have sophisticated systems that will guide the module during re-entry, ensuring it follows the correct trajectory and lands in the designated area.

Mylswamy Annadurai, programme director of Chandrayaan-1, Chandrayaan-2 and Mangalyaan, said that any technical issue hampering the safe return of the gaganauts need to be avoided. “The level of redundancies that need to be in place should ensure safe human return,” he told THE WEEK. “The key is foolproof technology. Common wisdom is the real need to attain that goal.”

the-progress-and-processes-in-the-domain-of-space-food-offer-astronauts-some-home-comforts

Sat Dec 14 16:15:39 IST 2024

FORMULA DIETS WOULD be “extremely desirable” as space food. This is what the Man in Space Committee of the now-defunct Space Science Board of the US concluded in 1963 after studying the topic of ‘nutrition and feeding problems’. “In many parts of the world, the people subsist on a monotonous diet... with no apparent ill effects,” the committee said. “Since highly motivated individuals are chosen for... space flights, it is unlikely that they would object to the monotony of a formula diet....”

The committee’s idea of formula diet had obviously not found takers, because Project Gemini (first flight: 1964) had, according to a NASA document, grape and orange drinks, cinnamon toasted bread cubes, turkey bites, apple sauce, cream of chicken soup, shrimp cocktail, beef stew, and chicken and rice!

Today space food is used by nations as a way to share (and show off) their cultural identity. Sunita Williams is known for celebrating her cultural heritage by taking samosas and Slovenian sausages to the cosmos (she has a Slovene-American mother). While variety is welcome, the non-negotiables of space food have remain unchanged over the years.

“One of the primary considerations in preparing space food is its nutritional content,” said Srimathy Kesan, founder and CEO of Space Kidz India, which designs and launches small satellites, spacecraft and ground systems. “Astronauts require a balanced diet that provides all essential nutrients to maintain their health and performance.” Kesan, who has worked closely with a number of astronauts and cosmonauts, said the menus are designed to include a variety of foods that supply the necessary vitamins, minerals, proteins, carbohydrates and fats. “This includes fruits, vegetables, meats and grains, all tailored to meet the specific dietary needs of each astronaut.”

Meals are typically freeze-dried or thermostabilised to preserve their shelf life and nutritional content. Freeze-drying removes moisture, which prevents spoilage and reduces weight. Thermostabilisation involves heating the food to destroy bacteria and enzymes that could cause spoilage. These processes ensure that the food remains safe to eat for extended periods.

In addition to nutritional balance, the food must be palatable and easy to eat in microgravity. “Foods that produce crumbs or have a lot of liquid are avoided because they can float away and interfere with the spacecraft’s equipment,” said Kesan. “Instead, meals are often packaged in vacuum-sealed pouches or cans. Astronauts can rehydrate freeze-dried foods by adding water.”

All space food undergoes rigorous testing for microbial contamination and spoilage. The packaging is designed to withstand the rigours of space travel, including changes in pressure and temperature. Additionally, food must be easy to prepare with limited resources―the ISS has only a small convection oven and an induction oven.

“Maintaining the sense of taste is another challenge,” said Kesan. “Microgravity can dull taste buds. So space food is often more heavily seasoned than its counterparts on earth. This helps ensure that astronauts continue to enjoy meals and consume enough calories to stay healthy.”

Defence and aerospace analyst Girish Linganna says space food serves multiple purposes. “It not only provides astronauts with the necessary nutrients, but also helps reduce stress and boost morale,” he said. To avoid electrical issues, he said, sealed food packages must include spouts and straws to prevent liquids from spilling. “Ready-to-eat foods should be thickened to prevent them from spreading in the air,” he said. “To keep the air clean, food should not create any powder and food with strong or unusual odours are not suitable for space.”

Nowadays, special requests have become commonplace, including pizza and ice cream. Cosmonauts, too, enjoy a variety of traditional dishes such as borscht, beef tongue and cottage cheese.

Mysuru-based Defence Food Research Laboratory, which had developed mango bars for Rakesh Sharma, has been working on developing food for gaganauts. Looking at the menu (see box), it is clear that the DFRL has gone all out to ensure that gaganauts can taste familiar flavours even in the vastness of space.

THE MENU FOR GAGANAUTS

BREAKFAST OPTIONS

Idli

Upma

Aloo paratha

Sooji halwa

MAIN COURSE OPTIONS

Vegetable/chicken biryani

Vegetable/chicken pulao

Dal/sambar/rajma chawal

Khichdi

Chicken korma

Chapati

SNACKS AND SWEETS

Veg/chicken/egg katti roll

Chikki

Nuts

Moong dal halwa

CONDIMENTS

Garlic pickle

Mango pickle

Tomato sauce

HOT BEVERAGES

Instant tea and coffee mixes (to be heated with food warmers)

―Girish Linganna

the-week-brings-you-whats-on-the-mind-of-your-doctor

Sun Dec 08 14:29:42 IST 2024

Most women wear fear as second skin—not out of choice but because of circumstances. If women had a nickel each time they faced any assault, they would give the Elon Musks a run for their money. And, each assault leaves behind a memory that scars them for life, a memory laced with fear, pain and despair.

“I will never forget my medical college days. Someone came to my hostel window one night and it was the scariest experience ever. I informed my superiors but the management suppressed the issue. There was no security at the gate outside the women’s hostel on the college campus,” recounts a doctor who did her postgraduation in Delhi and is now practising community medicine. A few months ago, she revisited her college, and found that little had changed. “I am sure some junior resident may be undergoing the same trauma that I went through,” she says. She wanted to remain anonymous as she didn’t want her parents to know the ordeal she went through. Fear has many in a chokehold, silencing their pain and experience, no matter how rampant and universal. The gruesome rape and murder of a postgraduate trainee doctor at Kolkata’s RG Kar Medical College and Hospital in August sent shockwaves across the nation, igniting widespread protests and bringing to light serious concerns about safety within medical institutions. But has anything changed?

“One thing I can say for sure is that there might not be a single female resident who was not catcalled while on duty inside a government hospital. The situation is same with interns,” says Dr Prachi Goswami, 25, a second-year resident at the University College of Medical Sciences, a government hospital in East Delhi. “All of us have been cussed and verbally abused at some point or the other. And this does not happen as much with male residents. But then, we are all used to it now. The thing is, we can still bear all of that uncouth attitude, but it gets unbearable if we don’t have basic facilities like clean bathrooms and a clean place to rest during 24-hour duty.” That’s what wearing fear as second skin does to you—you get used to it. Goswami used to live in a hostel, but moved back in with her family in Delhi after she felt she was being stalked on her way to work from the hostel at night.

The thing with fear is that it moves with you. And, it is infectious, even when not shared. Dr Sarla Shah, a family physician in Mumbai’s upmarket Prabhadevi, would know. She constantly worries about her granddaughter, who works in the trauma care centre of a hospital in Mumbai. “This fear is real even though my granddaughter feels I’m overreacting,” says Shah. “I know how frustrated, angry and hot-headed an accident victim’s family can be. They can vent it all out on the doctor, especially if it happens to be young women who have just started out.”

While women doctors and nurses have it worse, men, too, have had their share of attacks. In November, a frustrated family member of a cancer patient stabbed oncologist Dr Balaji Jagannath several times at Kalaignar Centenary hospital in Chennai. A study by medical researchers in Karnataka on the nature of violence against doctors in tertiary care centres reveals that over the previous decades, violence against physicians has risen. Nearly half the physicians surveyed (48.02 per cent) reported facing violence during work hours. The department of obstetrics and gynaecology recorded 43.2 per cent of such instances, while surgery, medicine and other departments reported 23.6 per cent, 22.8 per cent and 10.4 per cent, respectively. While this was specific to Karnataka, the situation is bad across the country. Maharashtra reported 12 attacks on doctors in 18 months. A 2017 study by the Indian Medical Association said over 75 per cent of doctors across India had experienced workplace violence, while nearly 63 per cent were unable to see patients without fearing violence.

One would think one’s workplace would provide a sense of security, that a place of healing would be the last place where violence would come knocking. It is no wonder then that safety tops the wish-list of most doctors, junior or senior and in both public and private sector, that THE WEEK spoke to. These issues, says Lavleena Lagey (name changed), a nurse working at the Nanded hospital where a number of children died in the neonatal intensive care unit in 2023, aren’t limited to doctors alone. “In the NICU in our hospital, the number of babies is always 10 times more than the sanctioned bed capacity, and we have just one staff to cater to all patients,” she says. “Add to that, the meagre wages, no permanent jobs, and no incentive to work well either.” A nurse at the civic body-run Sion hospital in Mumbai recounts how “patients’relatives come in a state of drunken stupor and we have nowhere to go except for becoming their punching bags if their patients don’t do well. But because we have to continue working, we can’t say anything”.

A safe and stress-free work environment is a fundamental requirement and also a doctor’s fundamental right, says Dr H. Sudarshan Ballal, chairman, Manipal Health Enterprises Pvt Ltd. He recalls an incident after his return to India from the US. The relatives of a patient with trauma beat up a lady doctor and vandalised the emergency room soon after his death. The next day, all the doctors marched to the Raj Bhavan. The governor called the police commissioner and the vandals were arrested immediately. While in the US, Ballal had seen litigation against doctors and hospitals, but never vandalism and assault. Such attacks not only create a sense of fear among doctors and nurses, but also discourage small and mid-sized hospitals from attending to sick patients. “There is a golden hour after any accident or heart attack, but a lot of hospitals will not take such patients in because then the goons will come in and destroy the hospital and beat up the doctors. So this is actually counterproductive,” says Ballal. “And even though the government has laws against this, which I think is criminal behaviour, it is unfortunately not implemented very effectively. I have no problem with the patients and relatives thinking that the best of care was not given, but there is a civil way of dealing with that.”

Dr Rajesh Mistry, an oncologist from Kokilaben Dhirubhai Ambani hospital in Mumbai recounts a case involving a 65-year-old man with oral cavity cancer and an extremely weak heart. “His medical condition and the associated risks of surgery were thoroughly explained to both him and his family,” he says. “After understanding these risks, they consented to proceed. The surgery was uneventful, but tragically, the patient suffered a cardiac arrest in the ICU and could not be revived despite our best efforts. While I could understand the grief of the family, they started abusing our team, including the resident doctors. Thankfully, the situation did not escalate into violence, as we often see in similar cases. Such incidents are deeply disheartening for medical professionals who dedicate themselves to the well-being of their patients. There should be greater empathy for health care providers during difficult times.”

Doctors say they are aware of the frustration that stems from a patient’s slow (or no) recovery and from the burden of out-of-pocket expenditure and how all that frustration is eventually directed at the doctors, who are no longer trusted for their expertise. “Trust in doctors and health care professionals is at its lowest,” says Dr Sandeep Agarwala, senior cardiovascular and thoracic surgeon, Zydus Hospitals, Ahmedabad. “What was once considered a pious profession is now besieged with mistrust and every opinion by the doctor is contested. Misinformation and quick-fix treatments, the presence of social media and superficial interpretation of information available on the internet adds to more confusion rather than clarity in the mind of patients.”

A research paper titled ‘Current challenges for doctors in India’, published in Sociology of Health and Illness, says that the public image of doctors in India has become negative; they are seen as greedy people who were in nexus with pharmaceutical companies and device manufacturers. “A few doctors make it impossible to shed this kind of an image,” says Shah. “In India, there are sections of the population who dismiss a doctor as someone who is self-indulgent and profiteering but those same people come to us eventually to get themselves and their loved ones treated and then suddenly we become God.”

Many senior doctors wish their juniors and those entering the profession are taught how to “communicate effectively” as part of their syllabus, so as to be adept at managing difficult relatives. “Treatment wise, everyone is right in their place because everyone has to follow national, international or government guidelines to treat any disease or any particular pathological abnormality, complications or side effects,” says Dr Swapnil Khadake, head, critical care, Fortis Hiranandani Hospital, Vashi, Navi Mumbai. “Outcomes may be positive or negative, but they should be effectively conveyed to the relatives of patients in a language that they understand.”

Effective and long-term health insurance is another key issue for doctors, especially those working in the private sector. “This issue is not very easy to address, but it has to be done,” says Ballal. “In the west, even when the patient in the emergency room is sick or has died, the hospital takes care of the patient and they don’t have to really worry about the payment, as the insurance company takes care of it. Whereas in India, because a lot of this payment may have to be out of one’s own pocket, people react violently, especially if the outcome is poor or bad, and they take it out on the doctors and the hospitals.”

That a patient needs to “have faith in the doctor’s instinct and knowledge” is a priority on the doctor’s wish-list. Many doctors say that no matter how educated the patient, they “tend to trust Google” more than their doctor. Dr Arun Bal, director, diabetic foot surgery, S.L. Raheja hospital, Mahim, Mumbai, once had a foreign-returned, highly educated college professor for a patient. “She saw on social media that if you soak a bel leaf in water and tie it to your right toe for seven days, your diabetes will be under control,” he recounts. “After seven days, she reported to the hospital with fever and vomiting. We found that all her toes had become gangrenous because of infection. We had to remove all her toes and she had to undergo dialysis. So a major problem that I face in my practice is how do I educate an educated person about such problems. It is extremely challenging. My wish is that people take us doctors seriously and do not give in to quackery.”

Increasing awareness about various ailments among people and the willingness to abide by prescriptions tops the wish-list of Dr Akanksha Parikh, paediatric endocrinologist at Kokilaben Dhirubhai Ambani hospital. And, that wish of hers comes from a recent “heartbreaking” case. She had a five-year-old patient come to her with short stature and development delays. Her parents told Parikh that she was gaining weight but her height remained the same, and that she was quiet and preferred to play on her own. On examination, it was found that the little girl had thyroid hormone deficiency since birth. “Thyroid hormone is an essential hormone for brain growth in an infant, especially in the first three years of life,” explains Parikh. “And during this period if it is deficient, it can lead to permanent neurological delay. We started this child on levothyroxine therapy and she started gaining milestones—her height improved, her speech improved and she began to be more active and started mixing with her peers. But the truth is that there is a high possibility that she still has some residual neurological delay because we started treatment late. Had this child been diagnosed at birth using a simple newborn thyroid screening, which can be performed by either sending a cord blood sample or through the newborn blood spot test, formerly called the heel prick test, we could have started treatment on time, which is ideally in the first two weeks since birth.” Parikh says that, like in the west, India, too, should make newborn thyroid screening mandatory in all hospitals. She also hopes to see a permanent cure for Type 1 diabetes, which affects about two and a half lakh children in our country.

For doctors practising in Delhi hospitals, pollution has become a major health concern, and so they wish for the authorities to tackle it on a priority basis. “The most important issue that must be addressed at present is the level of pollution we have in Delhi,” says Dr P.N. Renjen, senior consultant, neurology, Indraprastha Apollo hospitals, Delhi. “We all know that there was a large study by the WHO, which stated that pollution seems to be a very important modifiable risk factor for stroke and which is an absolutely preventable factor. And that is what we are seeing—the risk of stroke is higher because of the increase in pollution levels.”

Most of the doctors THE WEEK spoke to also listed better working conditions and hygienic work environments like clean toilets and resting rooms as part of their wish-list. These were followed by competitive salaries and timely and regular payment of salaries and reduced workload, given that many doctors endure increasing patient load and long work hours. Many junior doctors told THE WEEK that they would want to be free from performing administrative tasks and non-clinical work and be able to concentrate on patient care. Respect and recognition for the junior staff in the department, adequate health insurance and adequate indemnity were also a significant part of their wish-list.

Sounds more like an essentials list than a wish-list, doesn’t it?

dhirubhai-ambani-hospital-mumbai-s-ceo-and-executive-director-dr-santosh-shetty-interview

Sun Dec 08 14:16:57 IST 2024

IN THE REALM of health care, while doctors often occupy the spotlight, there is a pressing need to focus on another critical pillar of clinical care―nursing professionals. From both a doctor’s and a patient’s perspective, the quantity and quality of nurses in India require urgent attention.

Nursing is the backbone of patient care, often serving as the primary touchpoint for patients during their hospital journey. While a doctor may spend five to ten minutes with a patient during rounds, nurses are the ones who provide round-the-clock care, acting as the vital link between the patient and the health care system. We once had a mother and daughter as patients, both critically ill. While the daughter recovered and was moved to another ward, the mother’s condition deteriorated. When the mother was nearing the end of her life, no family members were present to comfort her. The nurses stepped in, coordinating video calls between the mother and daughter, ensuring the daughter could virtually be by her mother’s side in her final moments.

To elevate the quality of nursing, we must focus on two core areas: empowering nurses and enhancing their training. Unfortunately, most nursing curricula in India fail to address the growing role of technology in health care. Today, nurses are expected to work with advanced medical devices like syringe pumps, infusion pumps and ventilator technologies. However, fresh graduates often lack sufficient hands-on experience with these tools, leaving them underprepared for real-world challenges. In addition to technical expertise, communication skills are equally critical.

―As told to Pooja Biraia

Dr Shetty is CEO and executive director, Kokilaben Dhirubhai Ambani Hospital, Mumbai.

why-doctors-need-to-upskill-dr-rahul-pandit

Tue Dec 10 11:11:37 IST 2024

IN MY 25 YEARS of experience, I have come to realise that there are three essential ways I should keep upskilling myself―knowledge and surgical skills, procedural skills and soft skills. We all attend workshops and training programmes regularly to keep ourselves abreast of the latest in our fields and also try and understand how new technologies work. For instance, I learnt about critical care echocardiography, critical care ultrasound, bronchoscopy in the ICU and percutaneous tracheostomy, to name a few. I also learnt to interpret modern PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests and apply the results clinically because none of them was available in the early years of my practice. However, with changing times, I have come to accept that as doctors, we also need to learn how to project ourselves, the way we talk, look, conduct ourselves with patients. This, too, has considerably changed since I graduated close to 30 years ago. I was never taught this in my medical school. I need to learn how to build my image in this social media age.

Then there is upskilling through simulation-based learning. All developed countries are doing it, and we need to do it, too. In Australia, where I have a licence to practise, upskilling is a mandatory part of our yearly renewal of medical licence. It also involves a peer review, where doctors critically appraise each other based on their work and research. We also have mortality and morbidity meetings. Unfortunately, in India, there is hardly any upskilling in a simulation setting.

In the last 20 years, there has been such a phenomenal rise in the number of clinical and medical innovations that if we don’t upskill ourselves, we will simply lose out. And now, there are numerous ways to upskill. Earlier, all we could do was attend conferences and refer to journals. Now, we have all the resources right on our phones, at a fraction of the cost.

But only learning and building up on one’s knowledge isn’t sufficient in medicine. A doctor must also be taught how to use this knowledge in real world settings by way of simulation learning. And then comes the role of peer review―unless that happens, there is no credibility. And this is most important for 80 per cent of health care in India, where people have their own clinics and hospitals. It cannot only be left to medical colleges and institutions to upskill, but must involve participation of all doctors, irrespective of specialisation.

Every year, I make sure I do a structural upskilling of myself. It is a part of my annual improvement plan.

―As told to Pooja Biraia

Dr Pandit is chair, critical care and emergency medicine, Sir H.N. Reliance Foundation Hospital.

the-week-used-their-time-together-at-the-cleveland-clinic-as-a-thread-to-chat-with-dr-jame-abraham-and-dr-madhu-sasidhar

Sun Dec 08 13:58:54 IST 2024

When you are online, do look up the sixth edition of The Bethesda Handbook of Clinical Oncology by Dr Jame Abraham and Dr James L. Gulley. You are unlikely to find a review below 4.5/5. And that is from diverse platforms such as Goodreads and Amazon. Abraham is chair, department of haematology and medical oncology, Cleveland Clinic.

And then you have a doctor who taught himself programming while being a specialist in internal medicine, pulmonology and critical care. At the height of the Covid pandemic, he managed the Cleveland Clinic in Abu Dhabi. Dr Madhu Sasidhar is president and CEO of Apollo Hospitals’ hospital division.

Abraham went from Calicut Medical College to the University of Connecticut to the National Cancer Institute and the National Institute of Health in the US to West Virginia University before his current role in Cleveland. Sasidhar went from JIPMER to St Luke’s-Roosevelt Hospital in New York City to Yale University and then capped it all with a master’s in business administration from INSEAD, France. As they were friends at Cleveland Clinic, this reporter sat down with them in Delhi for a freewheeling chat on the sidelines of THE WEEK Health Summit a few weeks ago.

The engineer and the Jesuit priest

While it would be an understatement to call Sasidhar and Abraham overachievers, it came as a surprise when both admitted that they initially had other professions in mind. Abraham wanted to be a Jesuit priest, and one cannot but feel that there is a bit of that vocation left in him. Sasidhar wanted to be an engineer and spent a year in engineering school before joining medical college. Again, one cannot but feel that there is an engineer in him still.

“I’m an accidental physician,” Sasidhar said. “I think it all turned out well. But I had a deep interest in engineering. I used to tinker with electronics. I used to fix things even when I was 13 or 14 years old. And, famously got into trouble for it. I always put things back. But I got very lucky that I absolutely fell in love with it with a subspecialty of critical care.”

Abraham joined medical school at 18 and balanced the rigorous schedule there with his love for literature and commitment to social issues. A favourite aunt was only 42 when she was diagnosed with cancer, and that might have been the moment that forged this soft-spoken oncologist who specialises in breast cancer.

Patient-first in Cleveland

Interestingly, both were not really headed to the Cleveland Clinic when they reached there. Sasidhar and his wife, Dr Amrita Chadha, had promised themselves that they would not move to a cold and snowy place. As on December 2, 2024, 8:30am EST, the temperature in Cleveland stood at -1°C and was dropping.

Abraham’s wife―Shyla Jovitha Abraham, who writes for THE WEEK Health―too, wondered if it was ideal to uproot themselves from their home of 11 years in West Virginia University. But both families moved, and eventually, Abraham and Sasidhar came to like the institution in their own ways.

“What has impressed me the most is that the Cleveland Clinic has allowed many of us to pursue our careers in different paths,” Sasidhar said. “For me, initially as a clinician, then as an inventor, an educator, and as an administrator. Through the Office of Professional Staff Affairs, the clinic allowed me to grow as a clinical leader, also allowing me the time and the space to innovate within clinical IT.”

Both swear by the deep talent pool the institution offers and the patient-first approach that guides every clinician there. “You know, you hear it everywhere, but I think at the Cleveland Clinic, all of us lived it,” Sasidhar said. “If there was something a patient needed, there was not a question asked, we would stay back. And I think the most difficult decisions were always answered through the prism of what is best for our patients.”

Abraham agreed and added: “At the end of the day, I’m a clinician. I’m here to take care of patients. (At Cleveland Clinic) I saw a system that put patients at the centre. And then, as I said, the pool of talented people is amazing. You can just call the pulmonologist who has specific expertise in pulmonary hypertension or one specific subtype. That creates an environment for innovation, research, and education in addition to the patient-centred approach. And then, of course, it creates global leaders in health care.”

Both doctors agreed that another unique characteristic of Cleveland Clinic is that almost everyone there is a practising physician. An example cited was Dr Beri Ridgeway, executive vice president and enterprise chief of staff at Cleveland Clinic. “She leads around 4,500 doctors, and still sees patients and operates,” said Abraham. And this goes up to just below the CEO. Sources said that while the current CEO, Dr Tomislav “Tom” Mihaljevic, does not operate or does so sparingly, his predecessor―Vietnam veteran Dr Delos “Toby” Cosgrove―was active in the operation theatre all through his 13 years at the top.

Clinicians or administrators?

Another aspect that THE WEEK was curious about was how the evolution of their careers has affected their time with patients. As administrators, they have HR pressures, financial tightropes to walk and many other demands on their time. “When we start our journey, most of us do three things,” said Abraham. “We take care of patients, we do research and we teach. And then slowly other things like administration creep up. Eventually, you start gravitating towards one. In the first decade of my career, the focus was patient care and research. In the last five years, it is administration and patient care. You must give up some things, there is no other way.”

Sasidhar said that even as the CEO of Apollo Hospitals he leads with his training as a clinician. He said that he still sets time aside for rounds, to look into crash carts and flowsheets. “And it’s all about how much of an impact can you make. Jame is absolutely right. It is a progression. It feels natural. I always worried about taking off the white coat and I thought maybe I’ll do it one sleeve at a time. But you will know when the time and the opportunity are right. I do miss holding a bronchoscope or intubating somebody. But the time for that, I think, is over now.”

AI in health care

Just as AI’s influence in daily life is broadening, its role in medicine is, too. Sasidhar said that he first taught himself programming and coding because he was fascinated by the computer’s ability to solve problems. At that stage, “humans had to learn the computer’s language, and now computers have learned our language”. And now machines have gone further and learned medical language, which was always hard to understand.

“In some areas like computer vision, which is radiology and things that use computer vision to solve problems, you’re already seeing a lot of progress with commercial solutions in the market,” Sasidhar said. “And I think that will continue to come upstream and continue to help physicians solve clinical problems. I also think in the realm of public health and dealing with large data sets and understanding that AI will make a substantial difference. Similarly in drug discovery and understanding the genome.”

Abraham quoted Yuval Noah Harari to say that AI will “actually redefine who we are”. He said that it will begin at a basic social level like how patients interact with doctors and vice-versa. “And then, of course, the clinical space,” he said. “In oncology, we use a lot of genomics information. In 2024, two Nobel Prizes―physics and chemistry―went to AI research. The physics Nobel went for developing AI algorithms. But the chemistry Nobel was for protein synthesis. Madhu just mentioned protein synthesis. That will revolutionise how we develop medicines, how we understand protein structures and how we develop new drugs for specific targets. So, from a simple doctor-patient relationship to drug development, AI will completely transform medicine.”

While winding up, THE WEEK could not but ask these two versatile doctors this light-hearted question―name your favourite US medical drama. After a round of chuckling and head-shaking, they said this:

Abraham: “I should say ER or Grey’s Anatomy, perhaps. Funnily enough, my son―who is applying for his residency―said that Scrubs inspired him to take up medicine. What a bummer, I thought he was inspired by me!

“So, I don’t have a medical drama in mind, but there is a movie that I would recommend to all my students―And the Band Played On (1993). It’s about the HIV epidemic, the politics and the science behind how the virus was discovered, how it transformed advocacy, and eventually, a drug was discovered. It’s a fascinating movie. It tells a lot about what happened recently with Covid, too. We talk about Covid politics; HIV politics, too, was intense. So, that’s one movie I have watched multiple times.”

Sasidhar: “Frankly, I don’t watch a lot of TV series, but I have seen a few episodes of some of these shows. The one that captivated me is New Amsterdam, because it is set in one of those old New York hospitals. I did my residency in one of those―St. Luke’s-Roosevelt Hospital in New York City, which was celebrating 150 years when I was finishing there. It’s on Amsterdam Avenue, because New York used to be called New Amsterdam.

“So, a very old hospital, and some parts of it really looked like the set of New Amsterdam. I made so many memories there because it was my first experience with clinical medicine in New York City. It was the tail end of the HIV epidemic in New York City, and St. Luke’s was where the first AZT (anti-HIV drug) trial was. So, a lot of history, a lot of character, a very tough clinical environment in the Upper West Side, but also where I learned a lot. So, I used to love watching New Amsterdam.

“But I also have a funny story about my kids. When I was at Cleveland Clinic, my daughter attended an all-girls school there. I think she was in ninth grade or so, and I suddenly got a request that many of these girls wanted to volunteer in the hospital. I was very proud that they were committed to service! So, I got them into many volunteering and research programmes. Only later did I realise that they were all watching Grey’s Anatomy. I guess they were all disappointed that it didn’t work out the way they thought it would!

there-is-a-pressing-need-to-marry-digital-innovation-with-a-deeply-human-context

Sun Dec 08 13:51:53 IST 2024

I am a child of the 1980s, and have been in the unique position of observing the world through the evolution of technology. When I was growing up, there was a waiting list for even landlines. Email accounts were only for the nerds. And then came smartphones, a giant leap―a single, hand-held device that could be our window to the world. These devices and technological developments have truly changed our lives in unimaginable ways and have irreversibly changed the way we live.

India led the way in using technology as an enabler in business and in governance, and every sector transformed itself. Technology became an imperative and a differentiator.

With my ringside view of health care, I witnessed the way technology was impacting every aspect of our services―be it clinical delivery or relationship management.

Apollo Hospitals was at the forefront of this change. We had always been pioneers in medical technology, responsible for many firsts. The MRI, CT scan, PET-CT scan, surgical robot, proton beam therapy system were all first brought to India by Apollo, and resulted in significant improvement in care delivery and clinical outcomes.

We were the first health care institution in India to introduce a single health care identifier (UHID) for every patient, which they can use across the network. This ensured transferability and portability of personal medical records, a key component of providing consistent care. Today, this model is being rolled out nationwide under the National Health Stack, which will mark a pivotal change in India’s health care delivery system.

We adopted advances in internet and computer early, too. In 2000, we launched the country’s first telemedicine network, which took super-specialty care to remote areas of India and the world. Today, we have more than 700 telemedicine installations in India and around the world, and have completed over 20 million tele-consultations.

Today, radiology services can be provided real-time from anywhere in the world, and artificial intelligence adds a layer of accuracy to diagnosis. Our connected care platform and e-ICU frameworks enable nursing homes to connect to advanced ICU settings and clinical pathways, ensuring that advanced critical care protocols are available to all patients.

One of the most compelling use in our efforts to integrate AI in health care has been our development of the cardiac AI risk score. A simple score, which is integrated into all our preventive health checks, now signals patient risk for a cardiac event over the next five years. This is groundbreaking because it is a prediction, and with the right interventions and lifestyle modifications, individuals can ensure that this risk is managed, and the adverse event averted.

In 2020, right around the time the pandemic hit, Apollo Hospitals accelerated the launch of its digital health care platform, Apollo 24/7. The platform offered vital specialist and super-specialist care through video consultations on the mobile phone during the pandemic, thereby making sure important medical advice was available in a timely way even during lockdown. The online pharmacy delivered life-saving medication directly to consumer doorsteps, and critical diagnostic tests were also provided at home. The app has since grown to provide chronic condition management services and insurance options online, while also being a digital gateway to the entire gamut of Apollo services offerings in physical locations.

Minimally invasive and robotic procedures have also gained a lot of traction over the last five years. Apollo Hospitals has the largest number of robots and performs the highest number of minimally invasive and robotic procedures in the country. These techniques offer patients shorter hospital stays, minimised scarring and pain and faster recovery.

Generative AI has clearly emerged as the next leap in transformational technology. It is having a significant impact in health care delivery as well. We have more than 12 clinical AI projects ongoing as well as projects focusing on how generative AI can help our clinicians, nurses and support teams work more efficiently.

Looking ahead, the pace of change in technology is only going to go up. In health care, technology assumes an even more important role because it can singularly influence the most important goals of a health care system: quality, accessibility and affordability.

However, it is important for all of us to remember that technology is not an end in itself. Technology is only a tool, and can never replace the human touch. There is a pressing need to marry technology and digital innovation with a deeply human context. We face myriad, complex problems today―poverty, hunger, disease, sanitation, urban migration, public infrastructure, energy, environment, even loneliness. The technological strides we have made can help build low-cost, effective solutions to many of these issues.

And finally, no technology can compete with human intelligence. Computers work on cold, linear logic and lack perception, whereas human beings function as thinking, feeling beings. In an age of intellectual fragmentation, the best creations occur when people from disparate fields are connected together, when our distinct ways of seeing the world are brought to bear on a singular problem.

Our efforts will continue to harness what’s innately beautiful about the human race―its perception, its imagination, its resourcefulness, its ability to generate results much more than the sum of its parts.

The writer is Director-Strategy, Apollo Hospitals.

precision-technology-is-revolutionising-cancer-care

Sun Dec 08 13:35:24 IST 2024

In September 2023, Ravi (name changed), a 67-year-old from Bengaluru, developed symptoms of jaundice. Further investigations brought more alarming news: he had an aggressive form of pancreatic cancer with a poor prognosis. A PET scan revealed that the malignant lesion had advanced, complicating treatment.

To treat his jaundice, doctors performed a stenting procedure. Ravi then underwent eight cycles of neoadjuvant systemic chemotherapy to shrink the tumour. This was followed by 27 sessions of external beam radiation therapy (EBRT).

Typically, cancer treatment involves three main approaches: surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy, sometimes combined with immunotherapy. Surgery aims to remove all visible cancer. However, microscopic cancer cells that are too small to detect may remain in the area around the surgery site. If left untreated, these cells can grow back, causing the cancer to recur. To address this, radiotherapy is given after surgery to target these residual cells.

In Ravi’s case, despite the treatments he underwent, a followup PET CT scan showed the disease affecting nearby critical blood vessels. Surgery was seen as an inadequate option as it could still leave behind some cancer cells. Pancreatic cancer near major blood vessels is hard to remove completely, increasing the chances of the cancer coming back. Conventional radiation doses, limited to 50-54 Gy, are often not strong enough to treat cancer near vital structures fully.

Conventional radiotherapy has other limitations, too. It involves delivering radiation from outside the body, which means it must pass through healthy tissues―such as skin, fat, intestines or kidneys―before reaching the target area. This can harm normal tissues and still may not reach the intended location with precision, as pinpointing the exact spot of residual cancer deep inside the body can be challenging.

Ravi was in distress. But then Dr Somashekhar S.P., lead consultant in surgical and gynaecological oncology at Aster Whitefield, recommended an advanced Whipple procedure with vessel resection―a complex surgery for treating tumours and other conditions in the pancreas, small intestine and bile ducts. The Whipple procedure involves removing the head of the pancreas, the first part of the small intestine, the gallbladder and the bile duct. Notably, for this procedure, Somashekhar relied on an advanced technology called Intra-operative Electron Radiotherapy (IOERT), which allows for the precise delivery of high radiation doses directly to the tumour site during surgery, minimising harm to surrounding tissues.

Traditional radiotherapy cannot be administered immediately after surgery because the surgical wound needs time to heal―about six to eight weeks. Administering radiotherapy too soon can lead to wound complications and infections. Once the wound heals, the patient undergoes radiotherapy over five weeks, with daily hospital visits. “However, IOERT is a robotic radiotherapy system that allows radiation to be delivered directly to the cancer site during surgery,” says Somashekhar, who is also the global director of Aster International Institute of Oncology - GCC & India.

IOERT is a high-dose electron machine, weighing 500kg, resembling a small robotic arm. “Using a magnet and a cone applicator, the machine delivers radiotherapy directly to the critical area within 35 to 60 seconds,” says Somashekhar. “This process happens during surgery while the patient is under anaesthesia, ensuring maximum comfort. By administering radiation immediately after tumour removal, there is no waiting for cancer to regrow over the next eight weeks, as is often the case with conventional radiotherapy. Notably, this one-of-a-kind technology offers minimal side-effects and reduced recurrence rates because of the high efficacy of localised radiation.” Also, eliminating the need for additional radiation sessions post surgery means patients can save time and money.

“The tumour seemed inoperable,” says Arjun, Ravi’s son. “No one was willing to take the risk in my father’s case. So I went ahead with the radiotherapy option, during which my father received 25 sessions. But then we came to know of the benefits of using the IOERT machine, and I agreed to go ahead with it. The surgery was on August 13, and my father has been recovering well.”

Somashekhar says that such machines were only available in Europe and the US until now. “Aster hospital is the first in India to adopt this technology, and it is only the second or third machine in the Asia-Pacific region,” he says. “Over 50 patients from India and abroad―Singapore, Australia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe―have already been treated with this machine.”

The acclaimed oncologist notes that for recurrent cancers, this technology offers a unique advantage. “Conventionally, a specific area can only be treated with radiotherapy once because of the high risk of side-effects from repeated radiation. However, with IOERT, the same area can be safely treated again,” says Somashekhar. “For example, in rectal cancer, if a patient has already undergone radiotherapy and the cancer recurs, conventional radiation cannot be administered again because of the risks. IOERT allows repeat radiation safely and effectively. Similarly, for breast cancer patients undergoing breast-conserving surgery, a single dose of IOERT during surgery can eliminate the need for additional radiation sessions, enabling breast preservation without further treatment.”

Experts emphasise that precision is paramount in cancer treatment today, and that innovative technologies are revolutionising the efficiency of conventional radiation therapies. Dr Suneetha N., consultant, radiation oncology at Aster Whitefield, says that surface-guided radiation therapy (SGRT) is one such new technique.

“SGRT is used to map the patient’s surface to enhance precision during radiation treatment,” says Suneetha. “Precision has to start with preparatory procedures like immobilisation. Since radiation is administered over multiple sessions, it is vital to position the patient consistently in the same way as on the first day. Traditionally, this was achieved using masks or vac-locks―customised beanbag-like devices―to reproduce the patient’s position daily. With SGRT, however, the process has become more advanced and accurate.”

Suneetha explains that as a part of this process, a detailed surface image of the patient’s contour is captured, and each day during treatment, this image is displayed on the machine and superimposed over the initial reference image. “Any discrepancies in positioning are highlighted in real-time. For instance, if a body part, such as the hand, is misaligned, the system projects a red light on to the patient’s body at the mismatched area,” she says. “Adjustments can then be made until the red light disappears and is replaced by a neutral indicator, such as a blue light, confirming correct alignment. This technology ensures precise and reproducible patient positioning, improving the accuracy and effectiveness of radiation therapy.”

Suneetha notes that SGRT also offers real-time monitoring during treatment. Cameras installed in the machine continuously track the patient’s surface, and if movement exceeds a set limit, the radiation beam automatically stops. This minimises errors caused by involuntary movements like coughing or sneezing.

One of SGRT’s significant advantages is in treating left-sided breast cancer, where the heart and lungs risk radiation exposure, says Suneetha. Using Deep Inspiration Breath Hold technology, SGRT ensures that treatment occurs only when the patient’s breath holds within a specified range, reducing radiation to critical organs. This approach enhances safety and efficacy, allowing precise, uninterrupted treatment sessions. Integrated into linear accelerators like the Versa HD, SGRT represents a significant leap forward in cancer care.

the-week-hansa-research-survey-2024-best-hospitals-in-india

Thu Dec 05 19:16:41 IST 2024

THE WEEK-Hansa Research Best Hospitals Survey 2024

Research methodology

The survey covered 17 cities (plus the National Capital Region) that are important medical centres. Top hospitals for 10 specialisations were also ranked.

Perceptual data collection

A primary survey was conducted among health care experts―853 general physicians and 1,470 specialists. The sample was selected ensuring proper representation of all cities and specialities.

The experts were asked to nominate and rate the top 10 multispeciality hospitals in India and within their city. Specialists were also asked to nominate and rate the top 10 hospitals for their specialisation. Experts’ response for hospitals they are associated with were not taken into account.

Validation of findings

Data collected from the survey was validated using factual data from hospitals and other secondary sources. The final list was validated by leading doctors. Specialisation rankings were validated by experts who are opinion leaders in their field. City rankings were validated by experts from respective cities.

The core research team conducted telephonic interviews with 75 experts across cities and specialisations to validate the findings.

Ranking methodology

The final rank for a hospital is based on the number of nominations received, ranks given, and the ratings on the following five parameters:

* Overall reputation

* Competency of doctors

* Infrastructure and facilities

* Research and innovation

* Patient care

Note: Ranking for a city is based on the perception of the experts surveyed from that city. Hence, the order in city rankings may vary from all India rankings. Zonal rankings are derived by applying filters to all India rankings.

How to use it?

The rankings make the opinion of health care experts available to the public. While immense care has been taken to provide an honest assessment, the needs of each patient can be different. So, while this list can be used as a guideline, decisions should be based on what works best for the patient.

bjp-victory-maharashtra-elections-analysis-women-voters-significance

Sat Nov 30 12:29:03 IST 2024

After the commanding performance in the Lok Sabha elections in Maharashtra and Haryana earlier this year, one cannot blame the INDIA bloc for believing that it had a very good chance of winning the assembly polls in those states. With their distinct demographies and political landscapes, however, Maharashtra and Haryana defied predictions and gave the ruling BJP an unprecedented mandate. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the BJP not only staged a remarkable comeback, but also dispelled doubts about its political reach.

The intense 2024 election season concluded on a high note for the BJP, delivering a humbling lesson to the INDIA bloc. Going by a cricket analogy, the opposition began as favourites, but ended as “chokers”.

The Maharashtra assembly elections served as a masterclass in political strategy, demonstrating that no battle is unwinnable with meticulous planning and efficient execution. While the BJP reworked its strategy and idiom, the opposition was not as agile in reading the voters’mind. There is, however, a silver lining for them, as the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress alliance managed to clinch victory in Jharkhand, despite the BJP’s aggressive campaigning.

This round of assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, and a host of bypolls in several states have given a largely similar mandate: the ruling parties have done well, beating anti-incumbency. Consider West Bengal, which was in turmoil following the rape and murder of a doctor, denting Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s image. The ruling Trinamool Congress swept the bypolls, winning all six seats. Down south in Karnataka, the ruling Congress won all three seats that went to the polls, despite Chief Minister Siddaramaiah facing the heat over corruption charges. Nikhil Kumaraswamy and Bharath Bommai, sons of two former chief ministers fielded by the National Democratic Alliance, lost the polls. Voters also favoured parties which had no ambiguity on the leadership issue.

From the results, the primacy of women voters in swinging the elections has once again become clear. The biggest takeaway―win women to win polls.

In Jharkhand, despite the BJP’s high-octane campaign highlighting corruption charges against incumbent Hemant Soren, and the polarising issue of Bangladeshi migrants, voters reposed faith in Soren’s leadership, giving the JMM the biggest-ever mandate and a historic second term in a row.

In Maharashtra, the shift towards the BJP is significant. It has joined states like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana by electing a BJP government third time in a row, which shows the party’s deepening ideological reach. The BJP won over 100 seats in the last three elections, the only party to do so in the state. If the results of the Lok Sabha polls were to be extrapolated in terms of assembly seats, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi should have won 158 seats. But in less than six months after the general elections, the MVA dropped to 50 seats. One big advantage the BJP enjoyed this time was the full support of the RSS cadre in mobilising voters and spreading its message.

The BJP relied on a mix of polarising campaign and welfarist message. The ideological slogan, ek hain toh safe hain (united we remain safe)―a refined version of the polarising batenge toh katenge (will get slaughtered if we stay divided)―is likely to be the party’s war cry in the near future. What also helped the ruling alliance is that the Mahayuti had strong leaders in Eknath Shinde and Devendra Fadnavis, while the MVA leadership looked uninspiring.

The results have also shown that Rahul Gandhi’s appeal to the marginalised groups failed to work as expected. “The Congress tried to monopolise the social justice and constitutional rights planks. Dalits, OBCs and tribals continue to side with the BJP, as the party has delivered on its promises,”said BJP spokesperson Guru Prakash.

A year ago, the Congress had tried hard to play up the social justice card during the assembly polls in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, with a promise of conducting caste census, but the movement failed to gain traction. Now the BJP’s conclusive victory in Maharashtra could force the Congress to search for a new idiom and narrative to get voters’ attention. The younger lot are moved by the promise of immediate economic gain and prosperity. The ideological battles are won when there are committed leaders, but not everyone in the Congress are in sync with Rahul’s social justice plank. “Rahul has been steadfast in raising the social justice plank. He was vindicated when the US courts indicted Adani. He is not against corporates, but is opposed to crony capitalism. He will be vindicated again, on the issue of social justice,” said Congress spokesperson Shama Mohamed.

The Congress’s victory in Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh was based largely on its promise of a cash component in social welfare schemes. The freebies powered the party to victory in these states. The BJP learnt the lesson the hard way. Shunning its aversion to freebies, the BJP promised enhanced cash-based doles to women, such as the Ladli Behna Yojana in Madhya Pradesh.

During the Haryana polls, the BJP’s promise of giving Rs2,100 per month to women, which was hundred rupees more than what the Congress promised, scripted a turnaround for the party. “The Haryana polls gave us a big boost. It showed what works on the ground. Women voters are the key. Since then, we managed to cover a lot of ground in Maharashtra,” said a senior BJP leader. Maharashtra’s Ladki Bahin Yojana was launched after the Lok Sabha polls, offering women Rs1,500. Shinde promised to make it 02,100 after the results were announced.

Soren’s Maiya Yojana, offering women Rs2,500, helped his party cement its hold over Jharkhand. This has been the recent change in the India’s political landscape where women voters are turning more decisive, growing out of the shadow of the male family members.

The BJP, meanwhile, scores over the Congress even when both parties offer similar freebies. For instance, the Congress government in Himachal Pradesh, which offered several freebies for voters, is facing a dire financial situation, and is finding it difficult even to pay salaries on time. Such crises do impact the voters’ choice.

“That is the difference with the BJP’s promises. We first make provisions in the budget and then make the cash transfer,” said the BJP leader. “And looking ahead, women voters will be central to all political campaigns, be it in Delhi or in Bihar.”

The focus will now shift to another round of assembly polls next year. Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s entry into the Lok Sabha from Wayanad may bolster the Congress’s public outreach. Her entry into Parliament is keenly watched by all parties. But the BJP will approach Delhi and Bihar elections with confidence this time. The saffron party has not been able to win the assembly elections in Delhi, despite sweeping the Lok Sabha polls in the last three elections. Here, too, the voters are clear about one thing. The Aam Aadmi Party is able to present an undisputed leader, while the BJP has not been able to do so.

In Bihar, the INDIA bloc has an advantage when it comes to leadership as Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal is its clear choice. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is a past master in holding on to power against the odds, but voter fatigue against him seems to be growing. Bihar would also be a stern test for election strategist Prashant Kishor. His Jan Suraaj Party flopped miserably in the bypolls.

Clearly, the year draws to a close with yet another political message: politics is the art of the possible. After the Lok Sabha polls, Fadnavis had offered to resign as the BJP performed miserably in Maharashtra. In less than six months, he has made a triumphant return, with the BJP winning 132 seats in the 288-member assembly.

a-defining-outcome-of-this-election-is-the-emergence-of-devendra-fadnavis-as-the-tallest-leader-in-maharashtra

Sat Nov 30 12:29:58 IST 2024

The stunning victory of the Mahayuti, the alliance of the BJP, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party, in the Maharashtra assembly polls has provided answers to many questions. The Mahayuti won 235 of 288 seats, with the BJP bagging 132, and the Sena and the NCP winning 57 and 41 seats, respectively. The Maha Vikas Aghadi, the opposition alliance that includes the Congress, Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), could win just 50 seats.

For the MVA, it is a massive debacle. Many of its key leaders were defeated, including former chief minister Prithviraj Chavan, Balasaheb Thorat and Yashomati Thakur. State Congress president Nana Patole scraped through with a margin of around 200 votes. The Congress was left with just 16 seats, while the Shiv Sena and the NCP(SP) won 20 and 10, respectively.

Politics of populism and freebies, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi once derided as “revdi culture”, seems to have triumphed in Maharashtra. Schemes like Ladki Bahin Yojana (which pays underprivileged women Rs1,500 a month), free electricity to farmers, and apprenticeship allowance to unemployed youth turned out to be key vote-winners. The task before the new government now is to fulfil its promises, prominent among them being the pledge to increase the Ladki Bahin payouts to Rs2,100.

Among the questions that the results have answered are which factions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP hold sway. Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar emerged as dominant leaders, sidelining Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. Ajit reportedly told nephew Rohit Pawar of the NCP(SP) that Rohit could win Karjat-Jamkhed only because he had chosen not to address a rally there. After winning by just 1,200 votes, Rohit was seen touching Ajit’s feet.

Uddhav, stunned by the scale of the loss, was reportedly left asking, “What kind of anger is this against us?” The situation is such that Maharashtra may not have a leader of the opposition in the assembly. Rules say only an opposition party that has won 10 per cent of the total seats in the assembly could claim the post. None of the parties in the MVA has the required seats (29 of 288). The government could, if it is generous, recognise the MVA as a bloc to grant the position.

Aside from populist schemes and freebies, the Mahayuti’s, and especially the BJP’s, election victory owes a lot to effective campaign management. BJP leaders, with the help of the RSS, addressed more than 250 meetings and rallies even before the election code of conduct came into force.

BJP members say the leadership of Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, affectionately called Deva bhau (elder brother) after the success of Ladki Bahin Yojana, was crucial. Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Fadnavis held district-level meetings to enthuse party cadres to work towards helping the party recover from the humiliating defeat in the Lok Sabha polls, in which the Mahayuti could win only 17 of 48 seats.

Fadnavis and state party president Chandrashekhar Bawankule also effectively played the role of mediators whenever seat-sharing talks with allies reached a stalemate. The BJP’s role as a ‘big brother’ in the alliance and its flexibility during negotiations also proved decisive. Its campaign team worked not just for the BJP, but also for the coalition.

The BJP did not have it easy after the Lok Sabha polls results. The party reached out to all sections of society, especially the underprivileged, and held community meetings even before the election code of conduct came into effect. While the Congress banked on the civil society-led movement Nirbhay Bano (Be fearless), the BJP responded by launching the Jagate Raho (Be awake and aware) campaign. It drove home the message that the Congress did well in the Lok Sabha polls only because it spread the false narrative that the BJP would change the Constitution. The BJP took out Samvidhan Samman Yatra to reach out to dalits and tribals, and ensured that the backward communities continued to support it. It wooed Maratha voters by countering the narrative that the party was against granting the community reservation; it pointed out that the Marathas were twice granted reservation when the BJP was in power.

The party also emphasised how, under Fadnavis’s leadership, the Annasaheb Patil Economic Development Corporation created more than one lakh entrepreneurs, mainly from the Maratha community. The BJP also held more than 1,700 programmes to project Ladki Bahin Yojana as ‘Deva bhau’ reaching out to his dear sisters.

The party made efforts to retain support of soybean, cotton and onion farmers. The onion export ban was lifted, and soybean growers were promised a payout of Rs6,000. Before the election code of conduct came into effect, the government also started distributing nearly Rs4,000 crore to cotton and soybean growers.

The BJP also mobilised Hindu votes by highlighting an alleged fatwa issued by Sajjad Nomani of the All India Muslim Personal Law Board to boycott Muslims who supported the saffron party. Campaigns like Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s ‘Batenge to katenge’ (Divide, and be destroyed) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘Ek Hai Toh Safe Hai’ (United we are safe) helped the party galvanise hindutva sentiment among voters.

Eknath Shinde and his son, Dr Shrikant Shinde, MP, led the Shiv Sena’s campaign from the front. A reason that the Sena swept the Thane, Palghar and Konkan regions was Shrikant’s extensive campaign―he toured 62 constituencies even before the code of conduct came into effect, and held rallies in 41 constituencies highlighting the Shinde government’s work.

A post-results survey said the Mahayuti won because of the wide support it got from women voters and farmers. The survey said Maratha and backward communities voted for Mahayuti this time, unlike in the Lok Sabha polls.

The big question now is who will be Maharashtra’s chief minister. BJP legislators backing Fadnavis cite his crucial role in the victory. Two senior BJP legislators, one of them a former minister, told THE WEEK that there was no alternative to Fadnavis. “Ninety-nine percent, it will be Fadnavis,” said the former minister. The NCP, too, has indicated that it would support Fadnavis for chief minister.

The Shiv Sena, however, maintains that Shinde deserves to be chief minister as he was the one who led the saffron alliance to victory as incumbent CM. A Shinde aide said the party was firmly behind its leader. Asked about the Sena’s position, the BJP legislator said, “Obviously, who would like to give up power? After such a success, anyone would be sad to do so.”

The decision now rests with Modi and Shah. On November 27, Shinde told journalists that he would accept any decision they would take. “There is likely to be a meeting of newly elected legislators on November 29 to elect our legislative party leader, and Fadnavis will be our choice,” said the former minister.

The MVA, meanwhile, is licking its wounds. After the results, there were rumours that Patole had resigned as state Congress president, but the party soon clarified that it was not true.

The Shiv Sena (UBT), which is now the largest opposition party with 20 seats, is exploring all avenues to secure the post of the leader of the opposition. “Twenty legislators are enough to bring the new government to its knees,” said Uddhav at a meeting of newly elected legislators. The Shiv Sena (UBT) has appointed Uddhav’s son Aaditya Thackeray as its legislative party leader and affidavits have been submitted by the MLA-designates that Uddhav will have the power to make final decisions.

The NCP(SP) is upset that 10 of its candidates lost because the Election Commission allotted trumpet as the poll symbol to independent candidates. The NCP(SP)’s symbol is a man blowing tutari, a trumpet-like instrument. After realising that its candidate in Satara Lok Sabha constituency had lost because of the presence of a candidate with the trumpet as his symbol, the party had appealed to the EC to remove it from the list of symbols that could be allotted to independent candidates. Dilip Walse Patil, once a close aide of Sharad Pawar who is now with Ajit, openly admitted that he could win from Ambegaon by around 1,500 votes because of the presence of a candidate with the trumpet as his symbol.

Dismayed by the results, the MVA is likely to launch a campaign against electronic voting machines. Its leaders feel that they lost the polls in such a humiliating manner because of the EVMs. There are reports that the Shiv Sena (UBT) is planning to launch an agitation demanding reinstatement of the ballot paper voting system. The NCP(SP) is in talks with senior lawyers to explore ways to challenge the validity of EVMs in the Supreme Court.

State BJP president Bawankule alleged that the MVA was insulting the voters by questioning the trustworthiness of EVMs. “We introspected on the Lok Sabha polls defeat, learned from it, and went ahead and won. People have voted for the double-engine government,” he said.

Bawankule said everyone in the BJP wanted Fadnavis to be chief minister. “The leaders of all three parties will sit together and decide [who will be CM],” he said. “A BJP worker never gets upset with the decision taken by the national leadership. The Mahayuti’s chief minister will take oath soon.”

Fadnavis’s emergence as the tallest leader in Maharashtra is a defining outcome of the elections. He has led the BJP to 100-plus seats for the third time; this time, the party won 10 seats more than it did in 2014.

Does Fadnavis’s rise mean that the era of Sharad Pawar, and the politics he represents, is ending?

Only time will tell.

mahayuti-reaped-huge-electoral-dividends-from-its-direct-benefit-transfer-scheme-for-women

Sat Nov 30 12:31:08 IST 2024

On the morning after the Maharashtra Assembly election results, Shaina N.C., former BJP spokesperson who switched to the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) to contest from the Mumbadevi constituency in Mumbai, broadcast a message on WhatsApp. She had polled over 40,000 votes, more than any previous Shiv Sena candidate in Mumbadevi, “despite not one Muslim vote”, she said of her loss to Amin Patel of the Congress. Patel won his fourth election from the iconic constituency named after a temple to a goddess who gives the financial capital its name.

Shaina told THE WEEK that 40,000 women, including 15,000 Muslims, had enrolled for the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana in the Mumbadevi assembly constituency. The scheme entails a payment of Rs1,500 every month to all women aged between 21 and 65 years in families with an annual income below Rs2.5 lakh.

“It was a game-changer and a phenomenal endeavour by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde,” she said, “and it changed the way women voted because these kinds of welfare schemes really impact their lives.”

Much like in other states―Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal and Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh owe huge victories to similar schemes―the Ladki Bahin programme is being acknowledged as a major driving force behind the Mahayuti victory. It is little wonder then that Devendra Fadnavis and Shinde both thanked the state’s women voters―the state recorded a 6 per cent increase in women voters’ turnout compared with the 2019 election.

Another significant increase in voter turnout was in Thane district, Shinde’s home turf. It was seen as an outcome of his personal goodwill and the flurry of sops introduced in the final weeks of his government, including a removal of road toll tax at key entry points into Mumbai city. The district recorded a turnout of 53.1 per cent against 48.03 per cent in 2019. Shinde’s own assembly constituency of Kopri-Pachpakhadi recorded a rise of nearly 6 per cent from 2019.

In contrast, citizens’ groups, trade unions and farm unions said they found the Maha Vikas Aghadi’s agenda limited to boilerplate promises, failing to address the most urgent issues until it was too late.

“Soybean prices were a core issue,” said Kishore Tiwari of the Vidarbha Jan Aandolan, a farmers’ rights advocacy group, “and the Congress was instead speaking to farmers about the Constitutional limit on reservations for different communities.”

The soybean harvest ahead of the assembly election had deepened the prevailing agrarian distress in the state as prices of the commodity collapsed to their 2011-2012 levels. Paddy farmers, too, were being forced to sell well below the government-assured minimum support price (MSP) while public procurement centres were still to open.

With only days to go for polling, the Union government made a small but significant tweak to rules regarding public procurement of soybean, permitting the off-take of farm harvest with a marginally greater percentage of moisture than usually allowed under the price support scheme. It was nimble work, at no cost to the Centre. And, it provided relief to farmers who were otherwise faced with disposing of their soybean to private traders at around Rs4,100 a quintal, well below the MSP of Rs4,892 a quintal. As it turned out, rural Maharashtra voted with decidedly more enthusiasm, clocking a 70 per cent turnout in comparison to urban constituencies’ turnout of 55 per cent.

Farm activist Nilesh Khobragade in eastern Vidarbha’s Tirora constituency, who undertook a weeks-long hunger strike outside the Tirora tehsil office before entering the electoral fray himself, said the mood had begun to turn in favour of the Mahayuti in the last two weeks before polling day. Khobragade finished fourth.

Around the same time, in Sangli in western Maharashtra, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge likened the BJP and the RSS to poison. It was a windfall moment in the election season for the RSS, which played an unprecedented role across the state during the assembly election campaign after showing no more than lukewarm interest in the Lok Sabha election. “Kharge’s comment hurt Hindus, and the Shiv Sena (UBT) paid the price,” said Tiwari.

A farmers’rights activist for more than four decades, Tiwari said the MVA also turned Other Backward Class (OBC) communities and open-category communities away from it with their comments on extending reservations. “The opposition leaders kept playing on the BJP’s pitch instead of marking out their own pitch,” said Tiwari.

Chandan Kumar, a labour rights activist who has mobilised thousands of workers in Maharashtra in sectors ranging from gig work to load carriers, travelled through Marathwada on counting day and met workers in the sugar industry, most of them from OBC groups such as Dhangars, Banjaras and Vanjaris.

“Remember that Mahatma Phule gave us the memorable phrase Stri-Shudra-Atishudra, connecting the oppression of all categories of women with the untouchables in the brahminical order,” he told THE WEEK. “That’s why there is a certain emotional connection in the Ladki Bahin scheme; it gives women cash, and also the right and the agency to use it.” He said women workers he met across Beed and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar districts in Marathwada voted for Mahayuti candidates as a rejection of the so-called progressive politics of parties that had been in power for generations but had failed to bring any real change in their conditions.

These cane harvest workers, who have continued to endure a debt bondage system that has survived for decades and believe their interests have never been adequately represented by politicians, were now in receipt of a small, but material gift from the government. For families with three or more beneficiary women, it was not an insignificant sum at all.

It was unfortunate, said Kumar, that handouts had nearly entirely replaced election-time discourse on building public institutions or demanding public services such as better health amenities and education. “It was good to see, however, that women made their electoral choice themselves, and they did so vocally,” he said.

Prachi Hatiwlekar of the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-affiliated All India Democratic Women’s Association, said the rural poor had been wooed, first with the use of public money through schemes such as the Ladki Bahin Yojana, and then with the significant money power in play during the election through parties’ and candidates’ expenditure. “In Dahanu assembly constituency, which is along the state’s border with Gujarat, it was clear that the ruling parties tapped into their very deep pockets,” said Hatiwlekar, who, in recent years, led demonstrations of rural women from Thane and Palghar districts to demand, among other things, better implementation of the Right to Food Act.

The CPI(M) retained the Dahanu assembly seat, from where Vinod Nikole was re-elected. In the 11 assembly elections since 1978, the CPI(M) has won the Dahanu seat (named Jawhar assembly constituency before delimitation) 10 times.

Hatiwlekar said the Ladki Bahin scheme had also cashed in on a kind of collective morality among Maharashtra’s women voters, to acknowledge through their vote the party that had for the first time given women a cash dole.

Ruben Mascarenhas, working president of the AAP’s Mumbai unit who campaigned for MVA candidates across the state, conceded that they had been rejected even though the anger against the Mahayuti government had appeared palpable at rallies and campaign meetings. According to him, the direct benefit transfer schemes had swayed large sections of voters. “Post-Covid distress has persisted,” he said, “and people are still struggling, so voters think something is better than nothing.”

The continuing adverse economic conditions for the poor, alongside the aggressive marketing of the scheme with a campaign advertisement warning that the scheme could be withdrawn unless the Mahayuti was voted back to power, led to a euphoria around it, said political analyst and author Prof Surendra Jondhale. Eventually, the Congress, having opposed the scheme at the outset, appropriated it in their own manifesto, even promising to outdo the Mahayuti’s payouts.

Jondhale said that from his conversations with grassroots activists, his students across the state and political workers, it appeared in retrospect that the MVA’s electioneering was perceived as negative. Uddhav Thackeray did little beyond playing the victim card, and Sharad Pawar appeared to have a single-minded intent to take down the Mahayuti government, he said. “These leaders left core voter issues at the peripheral level,” said Jondhale.

Additionally, it did not help the Congress that its top two leaders in the state, Maharashtra chief Nana Patole and incumbent leader of the opposition Vijay Waddetiwar, belong to Vidarbha and have little or no rapport or emotional connection with the culturally and socio-economically distinct rural landscapes of Marathwada and western Maharashtra. As Jondhale said, “The Congress lacks a pan-Maharashtra leader.”

the-mahayutis-victory-in-maharashtra-could-lead-to-more-sops-and-freebies-in-upcoming-elections

Sat Nov 30 12:31:56 IST 2024

For most people, Sundays are a time to rest and relax. But Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde was extremely busy last Sunday, celebrating the landslide victory of the Mahayuti alliance in the assembly elections, thanking voters, especially women.

The Mukhya Mantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana, which pays Rs1,500 per month to underprivileged women, has been one of the major reasons behind the Mahayuti’s resounding success. So far, around 2.5 crore women have received five instalments under the scheme. On Sunday, Shinde announced that as promised in the Mahayuti's manifesto, women covered under the scheme would now get Rs2,100 a month.

While beneficiaries will celebrate the additional money coming their way, it is certainly going to add to the pressure on the state's finances. "For Maharashtra, fiscal pressure will intensify in the near term―the implementation of pre-poll promises to raise Ladki Bahin aid to Rs2,100, implying annualised budgetary increase of 40 per cent to Rs64,400 crore from Rs46,000 crore, with Maharashtra's FY2025 budget likely bearing Rs7,000-9,000 crore additional cost," said Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global Financial Services.

The Mahayuti has also promised to increase the amount for farmers under the Shetkari Samman Yojana to Rs15,000 annually from Rs12,000. This is in addition to farm loan waiver. The manifesto also mentioned a price support scheme in alignment with the minimum support price to cover price variations up to 20 per cent. It has also promised to provide a range of kitchen rations every month to low-income families under the Akshay Anna Yojana. Under the Annapurna Yojana, the government provides three free LPG cylinders to poor families.

When Ajit Pawar, deputy chief minister and finance minister, presented the budget earlier this year, he informed that the state’s debt would touch Rs7.82 lakh crore by March 2025, which will be 18.35 per cent of the gross state domestic product (GSDP). While it will be below the prescribed limit of 25 per cent, Maharashtra will still rank number two in total debt among all the states in the country, after Tamil Nadu.

The comptroller and auditor general, too, has raised concerns over Maharashtra's fiscal health. According to the CAG, the state's fiscal deficit increased 5.13 per cent to Rs67,601.87 crore in 2022-23, compared with 164,301.86 crore in 2021-22. In this year’s budget, the fiscal deficit was targeted at Rs1.1 lakh crore. Additionally, after the budget, the state government also raised supplementary demands of over Rs94,000 crore.

A falling debt to GSDP ratio is considered healthy. Maharashtra's public debt to GSDP ratio increased from 13.25 per cent in 2018-19 to 14.72 per cent in 2022-23. The ratio of total outstanding liabilities to GSDP rose to 18.73 per cent in 2022-23 from 17.27 per cent in 2018-19. During the five-year period from 2018-19 to 2022-23, Maharashtra could achieve revenue surplus only during 2018-19, as per the CAG report.

"The Ladki Bahin scheme was not the only thing announced, there were many other largesse. When you already have Rs1 lakh crore deficit, you are adding Rs1 lakh crore more. This may be good politics, but bad economics," said author and editor Girish Kuber.

One positive thing coming out of the Mahayuti victory is that infra projects in Mumbai and other parts of the state will get a boost. Many projects, including several metro lines in Mumbai, have been delayed and have seen cost escalations. The government will be looking to complete these projects at the earliest. There were also several new projects that were announced, including new metros and road projects.

The Mahayuti victory in Maharashtra "bodes well in the medium term, as the state suffered due to the fractured political mandate in recent years, with its performance on growth and infrastructure parameters lagging behind most other states, as a result", according to Emkay's Arora.

The stability of government and policy continuity is crucial to fast-tracking delayed infrastructure projects, which are vital to the state's economic growth, said Niranjan Hiranandani, chairman of the real estate body NAREDCO (National Real Estate Development Council). "Focused infrastructure development will enhance logistical competitiveness, facilitate well-planned real estate development and attract commercial players and manufacturing industries. This can be supported by offering fiscal relaxations in areas such as land acquisition, power costs, development premiums and tax benefits,” he said.

However, large funds will be needed to finance these projects. With fiscal pressure already rising due to the various sops, analysts worry that there could be sharp cuts in capital expenditure to keep deficit in control.

In October this year, the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation took a decision to auction three plots on a 30-year-lease, with a provision to extend it further. This decision was taken to generate revenue amid rising liabilities in the wake of several infrastructure projects to be developed like the tunnel linking the suburbs of Goregaon and Mulund and the western leg of the coastal road project.

With the assembly elections over, the attention will now shift to local body polls. The Mahayuti’s latest win could set a precedent for more sops and freebies. "There has to be competitive federalism,” said Kuber. “But, currently we are in the phase of competitive populism.”

jharkhand-assembly-elections-results-analysis

Sat Nov 30 12:32:50 IST 2024

When Hemant Soren was arrested in January on allegations of land fraud, his political future looked uncertain. After all, no tribal chief minister of Jharkhand had completed a full tenure. However, five months later, the 49-year-old emerged from Ranchi’s Birsa Munda Jail a transformed man. Sporting a thick, greying beard and long hair, he bore a striking resemblance to his father, Shibu Soren, the patriarch of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. The look gave him gravitas and public sympathy, reaffirming the feeling that imprisoning popular leaders often strengthen their appeal.

After getting bail in July, Soren used his time well, addressing more than 100 rallies even as the BJP carpet-bombed Jharkhand with rallies from its top leaders and chief ministers. The presence of his wife, Kalpana, who had made an impressive electoral debut in a bypoll in May, gave Soren an additional boost. The results of the assembly polls in November cemented his image as a strong tribal leader.

Soren secured a historic second term, becoming the longest-serving chief minister of the mineral-rich state since its formation in 2000. The JMM-led alliance surpassed its 2019 performance, winning 56―the JMM won 34, the Congress 16, the Rashtriya Janata Dal four and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) two―of the 81 seats.

The saving grace for the BJP was that it retained its voting percentage of more than 33 per cent despite the number of seats dropping from 25 to 21. Its allies―the AJSU Party, the Janata Dal (United) and the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas)―won one seat each.

“People expressed faith in our policies despite moves to disturb it as even our chief minister went to jail for five months,” said JMM Lok Sabha MP Vijay Hansdak. “Our population may not be aggressive, but they have shown what they think. Progress was never an issue; the other side raked up polarising issues like caste as they could not counter us because our schemes were reaching the grassroots.”

The most striking takeaway from the Jharkhand elections was the rejection of the BJP’s aggressive tribal outreach. Its campaign, centred on the polarising “Bangladeshi infiltrators” narrative, failed to resonate. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, the BJP’s election co-in-charge, repeatedly highlighted demographic changes purportedly caused by illegal migration, but the strategy did not find traction with the tribal electorate which constitute over 26 per cent of state’s population.

Last time, the BJP had won four seats in the Santhal Pargana area, which borders West Bengal. Many of the adivasis had sold their land to Muslims from neighbouring areas, which led to charges of demographic change. Muslims constitute over 14 per cent of the state’s population.

The BJP, which had won 11 of the 28 seats reserved for the scheduled tribes in 2014, when, for the first time, the state had given a clear mandate, was reduced to just one seat. Even that seat was won by JMM turncoat and former chief minister Champai Soren.

Hansdak argued that the BJP started raising this issue after its loss in the Lok Sabha polls. “They have two datas,” he said. “At the national level, they say there has been no infiltration, but here in the state they claim something else. If infiltration is happening, it is there responsibility. They are only trying to scare people. They have been in power the longest in the state, for over 16 years. But how has illegal migration happened in last five years. It is their strategy to divide people.”

Such has been the tribal angst since the BJP picked a non-tribal, Raghubar Das, as the chief minister in 2014 that the party’s efforts to win over the community has not yielded results in the face of the fight put by the Sorens. The party could not win any of the ST seats in Lok Sabha polls, despite the BJP-led NDA government’s outreach, including picking a tribal as president and the celebration of tribal icon Birsa Munda’s birth anniversary. Even the choice of Babulal Marandi, tribal leader and the state’s first chief minister, as party president and prospective chief ministerial face failed to click. The BJP’s state spokesperson Shivpujan Pathak said the JMM got sympathy for the arrest. “Moreover, they won over voters through promise of schemes for women and used money power to win over voters,” he said, adding that BJP ally Sudesh Mahato’s AJSU also failed to get seats. Most of the BJP seats have come from urban areas. Sudesh’s chances were marred by the dramatic rise of another OBC leader, Jairam Mahato, a 29-year-old PhD student who floated his own Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha. The three-month-old party got over 10 lakh votes in 71 seats with over six per cent vote share―fourth largest after the BJP, the JMM and the Congress. Jairam managed to win only his seat, but his party dented the voteshare of the BJP and the AJSU. The AJSU's vote share dropped by more than half from over 8 per cent in 2019.

Another big contributing factor were the women voters. The JMM government, under the Mukhyamantri Maiyan Samman Yojana, gave Rs1,000 every month to the women between the age of 18 to 50. The BJP promised Rs2,100 every month to them. To counter the BJP’s offer, Soren increased the assistance to Rs2,500.

The state staying with the ruling alliance has given INDIA hope that with a clear leadership, it can stall the BJP’s aggressive outreach and superior organisational strength.

However, the JMM fears that the BJP may try to curtail the reserved seats in the delimitation exercise after the census is done in 2025.

“Whatever may have been the results, the issues remain, be it corruption, the issue of illegal Bangladeshi migrants,” said Pathak. “We will continue to raise them in the state.”

If this election confirmed Hemant Soren as a regional powerhouse, it also witnessed the rise of Kalpana, who retained the Gandey seat she had won in May.

haryana-shooter-manu-bhakers-story-is-biopic-fodder-and-an-inspiration-to-many

Sat Nov 23 11:16:12 IST 2024

GORIA

Easy not an option, no days off, never quit, be fearless…. But give me a big stage, a fight, a challenge, and something happens―I get real. I walk an inch taller.

-Usain Bolt, in his autobiography Usain Bolt: Faster Than Lightning

It was a serene winter morning in 2014. Students at the Universal Senior Secondary School, in Haryana’s Jhajjar district, had just finished their daily prayer. All of a sudden, one of the sports teachers, dramatically, began his own prayer. He asked the school’s principal, Sumedha Bhaker, to not send her daughter to Kota for medical coaching. Taken aback by this public request, Sumedha suggested he meet her in her office afterwards.

Just a few days back, Anil Jakhar had witnessed something extraordinary: 13-year-old Manu had picked up a gun for the first time, out of curiosity, and had struck the bullseye. Moved by a profound conviction, Jakhar, a former Army man and the school’s shooting instructor, knew he had seen a spark. “There are so many doctors in India,” he told Sumedha. “But there will be only one Manu Bhaker if you allow her to pursue shooting. She is destined to win a medal at the Olympics.”

Initially hesitant, Sumedha, a Sanskrit teacher who held her faith in academics, was eventually moved by the man’s words.

“Manu was different from other girls,” Jakhar told THE WEEK. “She was physically stronger, more confident and very articulate. She would always compete with everyone, and even beat them on most occasions.”

After short yet successful stints in various sports, Manu’s competitive spirit had drawn her to the shooting range in her family-run school in Goria village, about 110km from Delhi. She excelled in the Manipuri martial art thang ta and was also a boxer. But some questionable refereeing at a thang ta competition followed by an injury during a boxing bout had left young Manu dejected and her parents worried about her future as an athlete. They decided it was time for their daughter to focus on her studies and become a doctor. She was among the toppers in her class, after all.

“There was a lot of cheating in sports, mostly in the ones Manu tried,” Sumedha told THE WEEK. “So, she wanted something where her efforts would not go in vain. Also, we didn’t want her to get injured again. Then, Anil sir assured us that she would excel in shooting, and Manu was told that her results (shooting) would be displayed openly for all to see. There would be no room for cheating.”

And so, just as she had shocked Jakhar, Manu captivated everyone at the Dr Karni Singh Shooting Range in Delhi at a state-level competition. Her perfect 10s in her initial 10 shots led officials to suspect that the scoreboard had malfunctioned. It had not.

The talent was obvious, but the success was not achieved overnight. It took years of dedication and some high-profile failures for Manu to climb the podium twice at the 2024 Paris Olympics.

The second child of Ramkishan and Sumedha, Manu spent her first seven years in Goria, which is why the village claims her as its own. The roads and fields where Manu once played with her cousins are now adorned with her posters, big and small.

The Bhakers of Goria stand out; they are known to excel in studies as well as sports. “Two of Manu’s uncles are retired school principals, while one of her cousins is a scientist at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre and another is a researcher at IIT Delhi,” said Mahinder Singh Bhaker, Manu’s youngest uncle and a state-level table tennis player. “She has inherited the same and has inspired my daughter to become a shooter.”

Her paternal family in Goria always believed Manu was different; her body language radiated confidence from an early age and she had a rare gift of persuasion that could bend even the firmest of wills. “When I used to walk her back home from school, she would run off and chase dogs. She was an active child and more spirited than her cousins and friends,” said her 83-year-old grandmother Daya Kaur, sitting in the courtyard of their sprawling ancestral home where Manu’s uncles and their families still live.

Mahinder joined in. “One day, when she was in the 9th grade, she asked me for my car key,” he said. “I initially refused as she was underage and hadn’t yet mastered driving. But with her unique charm, she convinced me, and to my surprise, drove the car flawlessly.”

For Sumedha, her Mani (her nickname for Manu) was not only different from others, but was also touched by God. When Manu was born, the hospital staff did not inform Sumedha immediately; they thought she would not accept her. “They did not realise that I had prayed for a daughter,” said Sumedha, who had thought of abortion a month into her pregnancy to focus on her studies. “Pregnant women weren’t allowed in my college hostel,” she said. “But my doctor advised me not to abort. I prayed for a daughter and continued college while caring for my one-and-a-half-year-old son. Despite the challenges, I never felt tired or hungry. I studied and also did household chores. I was running even two days before Manu was born. When she started excelling in life, I realised she was my shakti.”

The day Manu was born, Sumedha had her BEd examination. Her husband, part of the merchant navy, was on a faraway shore. “I was desperate to sit for my exams but the doctors didn’t release me as I had just delivered Manu,” she said. “My sister signed a release form and took me to my exam centre. The officials did not allow me in on seeing my condition. That’s when my sister fell on her knees and started begging them, forcing them to allow me in.”

In India, sacrifices made by parents often form the foundation of their children’s success. In Manu’s case, her mother was her pillar. “I wanted to raise my daughter differently,” said Sumedha. And to ensure this, she decided to forgo her dream teaching career. “As my husband was in the merchant navy, we were financially stable, so I chose not to work,” she said. “I wanted to make sure our children were raised with discipline and ideals as their father was home only six months a year. In 2006, I declined a Sanskrit teaching job.”

Sumedha would later join her husband’s family-run Universal school where Manu and her brother were studying. “I am a religious person and I imbibed in my children values and teachings of the Gita from an early age. That has stayed with them.”

Of course, Ramkishan, too, had a role to play in his daughter’s success, including giving her access to the best facilities and equipment. But, there were times he wanted Manu to learn some household chores. “Her sporting interests changed every six months, so we have boxing gloves, swords of thang ta, skates and other things at home,” said the merchant navy engineer. At times, he used to say no to Manu’s requests, but his wife would not hear of it. “Her mother insisted that I fulfil Manu’s wishes, even threatening me that I won’t be served food,” he said. “Manu would sweetly convince me with kisses and hand-holding. Sometimes, I used to refuse just to receive that [love from her].”

Ramkishan said that every time Manu found a new sport, it was Sumedha who would take the first step in finding the finest academies and instructors. For his part, Ramkishan never made Manu feel her dreams had boundaries. His unwavering support and Sumedha’s religious discipline blended perfectly as Manu started winning medals in competitions across the country.

Though she excelled in other sports, her mother believes shooting was her true calling. Within a few years under Jakhar’s mentorship, Manu made a name in the national shooting circuit. One of the standout events was the national shooting championship in Kerala in 2017, where she won nine golds. In the same year, she won a silver medal at the 2017 Asian Championship in the youth category.

2018, however, was the breakout year. She won gold medals on debut at the ISSF World Cup and at the Commonwealth Games. And it was during this time at a national camp at the Karni Singh Shooting Range that she met her current coach Jaspal Rana.

That would begin a roller-coaster ride, including lows such as Tokyo 2020 before the high of Paris 2024. Heading into the pandemic-hit Games in Japan, Manu was a favourite to medal. But a public fallout with Rana and then an equipment malfunction in qualification left Manu medal-less and devastated. She spiralled into deep depression. “She had practised for 12 hours daily without taking a holiday. I did not even go to pick her up from the airport as I could not see her sad face,” Sumedha said in a shaky voice, tears in her eyes. “Her smile was missing in all the photos. I told my husband and son, ‘I don’t care about medals, just bring back her happiness.’”

To take Manu away from shooting, the Bhakers flew to Kerala for a 25-day trip. “She worried about missing important events such as the meeting with prime minister sir,” said Ramkishan. “But we had already booked our holidays so we politely refused. Her mother cooked her favourite food and took her shopping. We encouraged her to keep working hard, believing that God would bless her efforts.”

Manu was such a mess that she thought of quitting shooting. The parents knew that she found it easy to switch between interests, but they recognised that quitting the sport might be a rash decision. They asked her to take a break and decide only when she felt emotionally stable.

“We tried to help her forget Tokyo and reminded her that Paris was just three years away,” said Ramkishan. “I assured her that her luck would change. Talent and hard work are crucial, but luck also plays a role.”

The resilient Manu, who had always stood up to bullies and unfair treatment, gradually regained her confidence. This time, it was life that was challenging her, and the ace shooter realised that, unlike in her sport, battles of life are rarely fought alone. Her Dronacharya had been out of her orbit for more than two years. Finally, in 2023, she mustered up the courage to pick up the phone. “With what had happened between us, I would not have made the call. I salute her courage,” said Rana. Thus began the redemption story.

While Rana helped her regain strength and confidence, Manu found solace in the Gita and drew inspiration from autobiographies of athletes and tales of the marginalised. This helped her put her own struggles in perspective. She was staying with her parents in Faridabad at the time, and she went all in on practice. “We hardly saw her in the society. At most, we would see her in the lift leaving or coming back from practice,” said one of the neighbours. Before the Paris Olympics, she trained for 12 to 14 hours a day, returning home only to sleep.

Seeing her hard work, and with each passing day, the parents became more confident of a medal. “I sense things from inside,” said Sumedha. “If I feel positive while sitting quietly, good things usually follow. That also affects Manu. During the Tokyo Olympics, I felt negative and warned her father.”

With a resolve to keep her anxious heart from casting a shadow over Manu’s moments in Paris, Sumedha chose to stay at home alone during her matches. Yet, unlike the worries that accompanied her during Tokyo, this time, she was more at ease. “Hearing the doorbell [after Manu’s 10m air pistol event], I sensed the good news,” she said. “My phone was flooded with congratulatory messages, calling us ‘proud parents’. I still get goosebumps recalling that day.”

But the competitive side of Sumedha is not satisfied. “She hasn’t won the Olympic gold,” she said. “We are confident that with continued hard work and determination, she will achieve it. We believe God has that plan for her.”

double-olympic-bronze-winning-shooter-manu-bhaker-interview

Sat Nov 23 15:45:56 IST 2024

Interview/ Manu Bhaker, double Olympic bronze-winning shooter

Q. How did you feel when you won the two bronze medals in Paris?

A/ When I got the first medal, I was confused if I should be happy I got the bronze medal for India, or if I should be sad I missed the fight for gold by 0.1. But then I thought it’s better to smile and accept it, and focus on the next event. The second one, yes, I was very happy because it was either you win bronze or you lose (there are separate bronze and gold medal matches in the team events).

Q/ How did you feel when you missed the hat-trick?

A/ For the 25m [pistol] event, we had really worked hard and were positive. I was definitely expecting a medal, but you never know how things turn out.

Q/ From heartbreak in Tokyo 2020 to history in Paris 2024, how did you keep yourself motivated?

A/ Keeping yourself motivated when you are in a low phase can be challenging. There were times when I really wanted to give up. I was so tired of doing the same thing every day. I had all these thoughts: negative, positive, everything in my head. But I just kept reminding myself, “Slow and steady wins the race. Just keep going through. Just for one more cycle, just till the Paris Olympics, just give it your best. And when you look back after Paris is over, you do not want to regret anything.”

Then I met Jaspal sir again and we started to work together. That was also the time he was very confident in me. I was also able to feel that confidence within me coming back. My mom was a pillar of strength for me these three years. She has gone through everything with me. She was with me in almost every domestic match. She was there when I was not doing well. She was there when I performed brilliantly.

Q/ What did you do in those three years to make yourself stronger from inside? You not winning in Tokyo was a surprise.

A/ If you look at the pictures and videos from Tokyo, you will see I was scared and in a defensive mode. My coach changed that. He made me more confident. Second, I became more patient. Earlier, I was quite impulsive and I would react at different things. I would cry. I would be angry when a match would not go my way. That changed. If I lose a match now, I’ll be patient and calm. I have learned to accept it and move on.

Whenever there is a competition, I’ll just go in with a positive approach. As soon as the match concludes, I analyse it and see what worked for me and what did not. I write down everything and discuss with my coach, and then we plan accordingly.

Q/ You got a call from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and even met him after returning to India.

A/ The personal interaction was more a one-on-one conversation. He asked me, “How is your training going? If you need anything, just let me know.” He asked questions about training methods, about how my approach was in the Olympics. With other athletes also, he had this candid [way of talking], like friends do. So that equation makes every person comfortable. That helped us gain more confidence. [He asked me about] my home because he knows my mom; he has met her once.

Q/ How do you find him as a person?

A/ He is humble and open. You can have a conversation with him. He’s mindful of what he talks about. One thing I really like is that he is well-prepared. He has all the information about who has achieved what and how their journey has been. That [leads to] comfort between him and an athlete.

Q/ Did you get any special tips from him?

A/ His tip was to be consistent. To me, he said, “You’re only 22, so you will have a long career. Just be consistent and focus on your sport.”

Q/ Do you have any message for the government in terms of what it can do to improve sports facilities in India?

A/ As I understand it, [we can have better] skill development [programmes] at the grassroots level where we assess our children. [We must] teach them different sports and activities from a young age. That will improve their mental ability and learning power. If we see other sporting countries, [children] start early and get expert guidance. We should also have this kind of structure. We definitely don’t have any shortage of talent. I am sure we can quickly cultivate our young talent and be good at the international level.

Q/ How was the Games village in Paris? There was no air-conditioning there because it was a green event.

A/ My heat tolerance is good. In Paris, I didn’t have an issue with the heat. Then we got ACs as well (the Indian government had them installed) and the room was also sorted. During the day, it was chilly.

Regarding food, I am a vegetarian. In the initial two to three years of my career, I used to have issues with food. Now I can adjust with everything, be it weather or food or people. It comes with experience. I was enjoying my time [at the Games village]. We used to work out and I used to walk back to my room with my coach because most of the time we missed the bus. I have only good memories.

Q/ You stunned Olympian Heena Sidhu in the 10m air pistol final at the 2017 national shooting championships in Kerala. Was that when you decided to stick with shooting?

A/ When you talk about shooters like Heena didi, they are the best India has ever seen. It’s not just about performance, but also how they’ve carried themselves and delivered at various levels for India.

[For me] no, that was not the time when I was like, okay, this is it for me. Even in 2018, when I won gold at the Commonwealth Games (10m air pistol), I wasn’t sure if I’ll be able to stick with the sport. It was more like, let’s see where it takes me. Just keep doing the hard work and let’s see how it goes.

Q/ Tell us about your village and your days growing up.

A/ I lived in a small village called Goria in Haryana’s Jhajjar district till I was seven. Our joint family used to stay there. We used to celebrate Holi and Diwali together. Otherwise, I spent most of my time with Mom. She was strict about my homework because she was a teacher. I used to have a good time with my cousins who are close to my age. Then we moved to Bhiwani where we stayed for one-and-a-half years, and then to Dadri where we stayed for six to seven years. My mom is from Kalali village next to Dadri. We have stayed at different places but I mostly spent my childhood with Mom and my brother. My father is in the merchant navy so he hardly stayed at home. I was active and was trying new sports and finding academies to learn new things.

Q/ You were a naughty child and your grandmother was your shield. Tell us about your relationship with her.

A/ I was not naughty, okay (chuckles). But if someone disturbed me, I used to hit them back. I don’t like bullying. So, yes, fights used to happen. Otherwise, there were no complaints about me. If I got low marks, I used to hide it from my mom.

I used to go to the fields or to a neighbour’s home with my paternal grandmother. I used to complain to her if someone bothered me and asked her to teach them a lesson. My maternal grandmother used to stitch clothes for me. I have spent a lot of time during holidays with her. I have very good memories with both my grandmothers.

Q/ You studied in a school that was founded by your grandfather Raj Karan. Did you get any extra attention because of him?

A/ Oh please! I’ll tell you very honestly (smiles). It’s a small family school in Goria and I had started sports in second or third class. There were teachers who used to say, “If you do not study properly, we will inform [your parents].” That fear was there. I was bullied a lot. They would say, “Since the school is owned by your parents, you will sit on the first bench for sure.” I also used to get punished unnecessarily so that other students don’t feel bad.

There used to be a lot of verbal bullying because I am a girl. I didn’t understand that it was bullying back then, but now I realise it. That was also the reason my love for martial arts and boxing grew. I wanted to be stronger and beat [my bullies].

When I was in 9th or 10th, I used to tell teachers when I [was punished] for getting poor marks that I had been away for some competitions and could not attend classes. [I told them,] “Rather than punishing me, you should help me.” That was when I started speaking for myself. I told them that they can’t shout at me or beat me unnecessarily.

Q/ What was your favourite subject and who was your favourite teacher?

A/ Science with Girish Kumar sir. I never liked maths. Both my languages, English and Hindi, were good. After a point, when I had to choose between physics, chemistry and biology, [I chose] the third one. But then I could not cope with sports and studies [together]. So, I gave up science in class 12. It was 2018. It was a great time in my career and I was travelling a lot for back-to-back camps and competitions. I could not give much time to studies. I changed my stream and political science became my major subject.

Q/ Do you want to join politics in future?

A/ Not really. I wanted to become a doctor. But because of circumstances, I switched to arts. I did my bachelors in political science from Lady Shri Ram College. Right now, I am taking a public administration course from DAV college in Chandigarh. I never planned anything in life. I just try to do everything that comes my way, efficiently. The only plan I have for the future is to be able to bring medals for my country.

Q/ Tell us about your equation with Jaspal Rana.

A/ It’s a little difficult to understand him properly. But once you start understanding him, it becomes easier to follow his mindset, thinking and approach. He is strict when it comes to sports, discipline and lifestyle. I am happy to say that [his methods] work for me. He is like a father figure to me. He is the kind of person from whom I can take life advice and share things with.

Q/ How did Usain Bolt’s biography and M.C. Mary Kom’s biopic inspire you?

A/ Their spirit of never giving up. If you have read their stories or seen the movie, [you would know] how much failure and struggle they had in their lives. Only after that did they become champions. Their life story is inspiring for me. I watched the movie Mary Kom in 2014 [when I was 12]. I realised how much you have to work to succeed in life. I read Usain Bolt only last year when I was lacking in motivation. He is a person who set goals for himself and achieved them.

Q/ You find inspiration in sports…

A/ I derive inspiration from different events, people and elements. For example, our para-athletes, who had an accident, recovered and decided to become athletes. Despite so many problems in their lives, they win medals for the country. I read stories of people who have built businesses worth millions of dollars from scratch or someone who has become a CEO or a world champion after a serious accident. These stories inspire me.

Q/ Breathing plays a key role in shooting. Tell us about your breathing technique and how it helps you in shooting.

A/ In shooting, physical strength and endurance are needed, but it is more of a mental sport. To keep myself calm, I follow the 4:8 breathing method―inhaling for four seconds and then exhaling for eight. This method helps me avoid nervousness and stay relaxed.

Q/ You have said that the Gita helps you overcome difficult situations. When did you start reading it?

A/ The Gita can help you a lot, be it morally or for advice in day-to-day life. If you actually want to learn something, read it carefully. [You shouldn’t read it] just for the sake of it or in one go. Read one shloka daily and eventually it will reflect in you.

Q/ Any shloka in particular that has helped you?

A/ As a shooter, I always remind myself, “Do your work, don’t think about the result.” My mom, being a Sanskrit teacher, taught me this. She was the one who introduced me to the Gita and she used to recite the meanings of the shlokas.

Q/ You are in your early 20s. Do you miss having fun with friends and parties?

A/ No. Either you party now and work for the rest of your life or you work now and enjoy the rest of your life with your family. I am a person who believes in the now. So, I will invest all my energy and resources in the present.

Q/ Did you like the style of Yusuf Dikec, the Turkish shooter who went viral?

A/ His posture is not different from any shooter. He won the silver and he had to work hard for it. But about his style, even in India a lot of people practise like that. People don’t realise that on social media.

Q/ How do you deal with negativity on social media?

A/ I try to keep myself away from social media controversies. I don’t want to fight with anyone unnecessarily on social media. Talking about criticism, cyber bullying can affect a person in a negative way. People should be mindful of what they say. Everything should be balanced. Extremism must be avoided.

Q/ Do you believe in God? Are you superstitious like your mother who doesn’t watch your events live?

A/ Yes, I do believe in God. I do not know what shape, size, colour or material God exists in. But I believe some energy and power exist in the universe that monitor everyone’s karma. I love lord Krishna and Hanuman ji.

Q/ We’ve been told that you love solving puzzles.

A/ I enjoy it a lot. Whenever I get time, I do it. It’s a good stress-buster. The best thing is that when you are solving a puzzle, you are not able to do anything else and you have to totally focus on it. I really enjoy that.

Q/ Do you still hang out with your school friends?

A/ I do not have many friends from school and college. One close friend from school is Anjali Phogat, who is a doctor. I had a friend in college named Muskan, who helped me with the syllabus and assignments. I am still in touch with them. I have two best friends: Anshika Satendra from shooting and Super (Supratik) who is my neighbour. We met through our dogs.

Q/ You were on a break from competition for a few weeks. How did you spend that time?

A/ I was on a three-month break. I tried to attend as many events as possible because I wouldn’t get time later because of training.

Q/ We were told that you love to sleep a lot?

A/ Firstly, who told you (chuckles)? Every athlete loves to sleep and eat because these are good for your recovery, and mental and physical health. I can sleep while travelling, standing in a train, basically anytime, anywhere.

Q/ How do you react to the violence that happens against women in India? Did you feel bad when fellow Olympians were protesting on the streets of Delhi?

A/ It’s definitely not good. Being a woman, I also feel unsafe. I am 22 and still my family doesn’t allow me to travel alone. The culprits are within the society but people always blame women. Of course, I felt bad when my fellow athletes were protesting in Delhi. If someone has got to the point that they are protesting on the streets, then something must have happened. Nobody wants to leave their training for protests. In our society, people worship goddesses such as Durga and Kali, but still women are disrespected.

Q/ Are you enjoying the stardom or does it overwhelm you?

A/ It’s not overwhelming. I first got the limelight when I was 16. I became Commonwealth champion. I got a lot of attention so I have become good at it. I know how to maintain balance in professional and social life. I do enjoy it, but sometimes it is tiring, too.

manu-bhaker-coach-jaspal-rana-interview

Sat Nov 23 11:18:06 IST 2024

Interview/ Jaspal Rana, coach

JASPAL RANA, A CHAMPION shooter himself, is known to young sports fans as the coach of Manu Bhaker. The 48-year-old Asian Games gold medallist is a father figure to the Haryana ace, but their relationship has had its rocky patches. They had a public fallout before the Tokyo 2020 Olympics and stopped talking to each other. It took a courageous phone call from Manu to reunite the duo. Rana speaks about that conversation and more in an interview with THE WEEK. Excerpts:

Q/ When did you first meet Manu Bhaker?

A/ It was maybe in 2016 or 2017. We had a lot of shooters from all over the country at the Tughlakabad shooting range [in Delhi]; she was one of them. For me they were just regular kids at the same level.

Q/ How did you find Manu as a person and as a shooter?

A/ We had many good shooters. Manu had [won at] the youth Olympics and Commonwealth Games in 2018. That is when she started shooting well and we trained further.

Q/ You did not want Manu to take part in the 25m pistol event in Tokyo; controversy then broke out. Would you please elaborate on what happened?

A/ Manu was only 18 at the time. She was doing well in [10m] air pistol and [10m] air pistol mixed event. She was good but three events were too much for her then. But, because of some dirty politics, she was told I was against her. I never knew that till the time she told me. I became the culprit for the entire national shooting team. Things went from bad to worse and we stopped talking.

Q/ How did you reunite?

A/ She called me from a new number that I didn’t have. I didn’t take it initially. Then I picked up. She said she wanted to talk. I told her to come to Khan Market where I made it clear we won’t discuss the past. Some people had misused the situation, so I urged her to focus on the future.

Q/ What is her biggest strength and weakness?

A/ Her biggest strength is that she had the guts to call me [saying she wanted to train under me again]. I think she needed a lot of courage to do that. I wouldn’t have made the call despite all the maturity I have. She has small weaknesses like everyone else but they don’t matter.

Q/ You are not only her coach but also her guide, philosopher and mentor. How did you two become so close?

A/ I am close to all my students equally. Since Manu came into the picture, we have spent a lot of time together. Time that I was supposed to spend with my family and kids. But to have a good student around is always good.

Q/ We know Manu was impulsive. How did you help with her composure?

A/ I never try to change a person. I always keep the facts in front of them, including mistakes and bad habits. I tell them, “If you do this, that will happen” and let them decide. She had been doing endorsements and travelling, things that athletes do in a small window to make some money. I told her that if she didn’t stop, practice would be delayed. We started [training] on November 3.

Q/ You used to impose fines on her during practice.

A/ There is no difference between practice and a match. I make training sessions as close to matches as possible. We create pressure [and a sense] of loss and victory. In the Olympics, every point counts. If she misses her target, she pays a self-imposed fine, donating to a poor child or buying treats for animals, which improves her karma.

Q/ Manu had an accident before the Paris Olympics. How did you react to that as a coach?

A/ I did not know about it. She told me after the Olympics. That was a stupid move. It could have led to a fracture and cost India two medals.

Q/ Is it true that you did not allow her to pursue other interests before the Olympics?

A/ She was doing bharatnatyam and violin. But horse riding and other sports were banned. Why try something risky?

Q/ Her father says Manu never stuck to one sport. Did you fear that she might quit shooting as well?

A/ It is good that she has an interest in other sports. But that doesn’t mean you leave one for another. You have to prioritise.

Q/ Has she changed after the Paris Olympics?

A/ Change is the only constant. If that change is on the wrong side, we are heading for disaster. If it is good, we are heading for the Los Angeles Olympics.

Q/ Do you think too much promotion and travel at this age can affect her career?

A/ [We may think] it’s too much. But it is justified from her perspective because nobody helped her before the Olympics. It’s fair that she is now making a little money.

Q/ We saw negative comments on social media about her always carrying her medals.

A/ Who is Manu Bhaker without her medals? She has the right to flaunt them. Even Muhammad Ali used to sleep with his medals.

Q/ Tell us about your academy in Dehradun. Is there another Manu in the making?

A/ There are thousands of girls who are ready to compete. They need proper guidance and support. The government and private sector should support them before they achieve anything, not after. We must start working from the grassroots. We need to have the right coaches as well.

us-presidential-elections-donald-trump-victory

Sat Nov 16 17:35:51 IST 2024

The world is still coming to terms with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Many had no doubt predicted, even feared, this outcome, particularly when a frail Joe Biden began to slur, slip and stumble. Yet, once Kamala Harris was pitchforked into the campaign―and made early gains―there was a residual hope in sections of American society and many parts of the world that Trump would be kept out. Hope is not the right word; it was more a reality-denial. Many were just not willing to believe that a man twice impeached and prosecuted four times, a convicted felon on multiple counts, could actually become the most powerful man in the world. Again. They clung on to the outdated belief that decency, however uninspiring, would always trump dark vision.

Sooner, rather than later, acceptance must replace anguish. Trump has won emphatically not only the electoral college but, for the first time, the popular vote. More than half of the voters wanted him back to the White House, and there is no greater backing in a democracy. His supporters have overlooked, by free choice, his trademark profanities, his misogyny, racism and his vulgar machismo. They have forgiven his violent obstruction to the transfer of power in 2020. They have unconditionally bought into his narrative of Making America Great Again (MAGA), no matter what the cost. Immigration and inflation proved more powerful than being woke or championing abortion; even multi-racial working-class groups and women voters have swung towards him. There was an undeniable rightward shift in all 50 states. Clearly, despite Biden’s investments in manufacturing and infrastructure, people were unhappy with the Democrats; they voted for ‘Change with Strength’. The inescapable conclusion: Trump 1.0 was not an aberration, an inexplicable blip. It was a logical sign of shifting political realities and cultures.

In dealing with Trump 2.0, simply following the playbook of the first term may not be enough. In November 2016, Trump, and much of the world, was surprised by his victory over Hillary Clinton. Ensconced in Trump Tower in New York, Trump had no transition plan, or list of deployments; Clinton in contrast had it all charted out. Trump muddled through towards his inauguration with the help of his key advisors―his daughter Ivanka, her husband Jared Kushner and his campaign managers Steve Bannon, Corey Lewandowski and Paul Manafort―all three, incidentally, later faced criminal charges.

Policy in the early months was conducted through a series of imperious executive orders. Cabinet positions were gradually filled up―a mix of favourites, money-bags and generals, for whom Trump harboured some admiration. Crucial appointments below the cabinet level took long to fill, if at all; the long corridors of the state department, for instance, were haunted, unoccupied places for months. The establishment Republicans, many of them being no-Trumpers, were out, biting their nails. A new crowd of family cronies and Trump loyalists, unknown and inexperienced in the ways of the Beltway, tried to take over. Diplomats scrambled to make connections through unconventional channels―even hanging around in the bar at the Trump Hotel in Washington, DC, to buttonhole Trump’s advisers―because the established paths to power no longer worked.

Frequent changes in the top ranks added to the general chaos. Trump went through four national security advisers. Several crucial advisers such as defence secretary Jim Mattis and chief of staff John Kelly―two of the men known as the “adults in the room” had to go because they were not going to roll over at Trump’s whim. Trump, it bears recalling, often made policy on the run, and announced it over Twitter. He also fired his first secretary of state Rex Tillerson with a tweet. Foreign leaders, including many strategic allies, who rushed in to meet Trump were often rudely scorned or hectored; it took a while for them to learn the art of the great Ego-Feed.

Now, Trump is far more experienced in handling the levers of power, though that it is not going to be guarantee against chaos. His convincing mandate, and the Republican control of the Senate and the House, means he will not waste time trying to work with the “swamp”, or the Washington establishment, but will bulldoze his way through with a trusted team. The Trump family will wield immense influence. Even if Ivanka and Kushner shun the crucial senior adviser roles they earlier played, others will step in: Trump’s two elder sons Eric (whose wife, Lara, is co-chair of the Republican National Committee) and Don Jr. as will be his strapping young son Barron. Incidentally, Barron is being credited with advising Trump to conduct the “bro-casts” with male influencers to talk about wrestling, cryptocurrency and cocaine.

Unlike 2016, a transition team, chaired by the billionaire Howard Lutnick and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has already been at work and early appointments are coming through. They are all along expected lines: loyalists and hardliners who believe in America First. Among these are known immigration hardliners from the first term. Tom Homan and Stephen Miller will be the border czar and deputy chief of staff, respectively, and will carry out the promised mass deportation of millions of illegal immigrants. The Indian establishment can take comfort from the selection of Florida Congressman Mike Waltz as national security adviser. Waltz is the co-chair of the India Caucus in the House and familiar with the progress in the India-US relationship; to boot, he is a hawk on China, as is Mark Rubio, the pick for secretary of state.

Of particular interest will be the appointment of the attorney general. In his first term, Trump quickly fell out with―and fired―Jeff Sessions; his second attorney general Bill Barr resigned in December 2020 when he publicly disputed Trump’s claims of voter fraud. This time around, the department of justice may be asked by Trump to wreak vengeance on his political enemies, a job that many would like to avoid.

The roller-coaster ride has just begun, powered by the tech billionaire Elon Musk, who poured $120 million into Trump’s campaign and brought out the voters through his platform X. Trump has named Musk (along with Vivek Ramaswamy) to oversee the newly-created department of government efficiency, making him his hatchet man for cutting costs and restructuring the bureaucracy. The bromance between Trump and Musk, two super-egotistic men, will be the thing to watch. Till it lasts.

Navtej Sarna is former ambassador of India to the US.

trump-returns-to-presidency-stronger-than-before-but-just-as-unpredictable

Sat Nov 16 17:33:09 IST 2024

Washington, DC

As Donald Trump returns to power, much of the world is bracing for a repeat of his first term in office. Yet, in light of his own conflicting pronouncements and radically unworkable proposals, the new administration’s likely policies are still a wild guessing game.

During his first term in office, Trump ruled the United States in a style that defied convention and routinely challenged established norms, both at home and abroad. After his loss to Joe Biden in 2020, a sense of normalcy was restored, and many commentators assumed that Trump had been an aberration. In the years that followed, the former president was besieged by a series of legal setbacks, including a criminal conviction, which many believed would hurt his political future.

Yet, in this month’s elections, Trump defied all those expectations. In an astonishing result, Trump beat the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, by a wider margin in the electoral college than had been achieved in the previous two elections. In the process, he became the first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years.

In securing his victory, Trump made inroads into all demographic groups that have traditionally been loyal to the Democratic Party. According to a New York Times study, large percentages of voters among Hispanics and African-Americans, rural and urban populations, educated and less educated sections, and both young and old shifted towards Trump. In particular, compared with 2020, Trump gained in Hispanic-majority counties by over 13 percentage points and in urban counties by nearly 6 percentage points.

These shifts also manifested in gains for the Republicans in the concurrent elections for the Senate and House of Representatives. The Republicans secured a majority in the Senate after flipping four seats from Democratic incumbents. They retained the House as well. This adds to the already iron-clad conservative majority in the US Supreme Court following new judicial appointments during Trump’s first term.

Trump therefore returns to the White House with far more political capital and power than before. He has not only won gains in Congress and within his party but has also won vindication for his brand of politics.

It is still unclear what these developments will mean for the US and the world under Trump’s second term. In the run-up to this month’s elections, Harris tried to rally voters around what she argued was the threat posed to democracy by Trump’s confrontational style of politics. But voter sentiment was instead dominated by economic concerns―rising inflation and housing costs and worries over limited upward socioeconomic mobility. According to data from the National Association of Realtors, between July 2023 and June 2024, only 24 per cent of new home buyers in the US were first-time buyers. Many young families have been priced out of the housing market by rising costs and stagnant incomes.

These frustrations drove strong anti-immigrant sentiments, which Trump tapped into with aggressive rhetoric. On the campaign trail, Trump accused Biden and Harris of allowing large numbers of illegal immigrants into the US, leading to rising crime and economic scarcity. In his presidential debate with Harris, Trump falsely claimed that Haitian immigrants in a small town in Ohio were eating the pets of local residents.

Consequently, Trump promised mass deportation of illegal immigrants. At a rally in New York, he said, “On Day 1, I will launch the largest deportation programme in American history to get the criminals out.” He also controversially proposed the denial of citizenship to children born in the US to illegal immigrants. But the jury is out on how much of this Trump is truly serious about and how much of it is practically possible.

It is also unclear if Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric will result in restrictions on legal immigration by skilled workers. Back in June, Trump had said that students graduating from US colleges should get a green card. Such a policy may prove to be too ambitious, but the presence and influence of billionaire Elon Musk in Trump’s second presidency may potentially encourage the liberalisation of immigration policy for high-skilled workers. Musk’s business interests, including Tesla, SpaceX, and X depend heavily on high-skilled labour from abroad.

On trade and foreign policy, Trump remains just as unpredictable and inconsistent. During his campaign, Trump repeatedly promised to impose tariffs on goods coming into the US. The nature of those tariff proposals changed from time to time. Trump has floated the idea of a 25 per cent tariff on all goods from Mexico, a 60 per cent tax on goods from China, and even a 10 per cent tariff on all imported goods across the board. But the arbitrariness of these proposals suggests that none of them are set in stone.

On this front, relations with China will prove especially consequential. During his first term, Trump presided over a prolonged trade war with China, which resulted in a series of tariffs―many of which continued under Biden. Yet, the two presidents have fundamentally different views on Beijing. Biden often resorted to the logic of geopolitical competition in maintaining trade restrictions on China, arguing that it is not in US interest to rely on Chinese supply chains. To that end, he encouraged US businesses to diversify their operations to other countries more closely aligned with Washington― a strategy widely known as “friend-shoring”.

Trump, on the other hand, has shown limited appetite for the view that China is a geopolitical or strategic rival. Instead, he has approached trade with China through a relatively more transactional lens. As a result, Trump may potentially be more open to negotiating deals with Beijing on trade.

These subtle differences have previously manifested themselves in the way that the two leaders have dealt with President Xi Jinping. In the aftermath of a meeting with Xi in San Francisco late last year, Biden termed the Chinese president a “dictator”. For much of his term, Biden rallied allies in the Indo-Pacific against Beijing, arguing that the world was caught in a righteous fight between democracy and autocracy. By contrast, Trump has often talked up Xi’s leadership, calling him “smart” for ruling with “an iron fist”.

Trump similarly brings a complex dynamic to Russia and the Ukraine war. Over the years, Trump has publicly admired Putin much in the same way as he has admired Xi. In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Trump praised Putin’s strategic prowess, calling it “very savvy”. Separately, Trump has often expressed deep scepticism towards US allies in Europe and the NATO, arguing that Washington was footing the bill for their defence.

Such rhetoric would make most European leaders deeply anxious and many observers believe that a second Trump presidency could dilute Washington’s commitment to Ukraine’s defence. Yet, shortly after winning the election this month, Trump spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over a phone call which reports described as a “good talk”. The conversation also reportedly involved Musk who has been a key supplier to the Ukrainian war effort through his Starlink satellite communications network.

A second Trump presidency may swing one way or the other on most of these issues. On most policy matters, Trump has frequently left himself room for inconsistency and unpredictability, often giving little or no thought to diluting or even contravening his own past policy pronouncements.

Yet, despite this uncertainty, Trump’s final moves have often hinged on his transactional approach. Trump’s foreign and domestic policies frequently appear liable to shift based on what he perceives as gains and losses, both personal and political. In that context, Trump’s large business interests provide both domestic and foreign stakeholders with unconventional channels to influence his policies. Those interests have ranged from hotels and golf courses―in strategically consequential countries such as Israel and Saudi Arabia―to investments in a crypto venture and a social media company.

Foreign governments will inevitably factor in these interests during their dealings with Trump. But on most issues, there is gross unpredictability on the shape that Trump’s policies would take during his second term.

The author is a foreign affairs analyst based in Washington, DC, and the author of Flying Blind: India’s Quest for Global Leadership

trump-international-hotel-was-the-only-place-outside-the-white-house-where-trump-ever-dined-during-his-four-years-as-president

Sat Nov 16 16:12:03 IST 2024

In 2017, there was Donald Trump’s White House. And then there was a parallel White House, not far from the president’s official residence. It was a mammoth old post office, which realtor Trump began converting into a hotel five years before he was elected president. Trump may well have been secretly planning his political foray when he entered the fierce bidding to lease this building, listed on the National Register of Historic Places.

Trump International Hotel had its grand opening two weeks before Trump was elected president in 2016. Soon enough, it became the most popular watering hole in Washington for cabinet members, leaders of both chambers of the US Congress, ambassadors, wheeler-dealers and well-heeled Republican operatives. The hotel was the only place outside the White House where Trump ever dined during his four years as president.

Going to Trump’s hotel was a short-cut for political fixers to make deals with top officials because they could avoid official scrutiny at the White House and circumvent its stringent restrictions. Meeting any Trump establishment VIP at a hotel would not be covered by the Freedom of Information Act, the US equivalent of India’s Right to Information (RTI) Act. So, the glitzy hotel thrived from day one, charging an obnoxious $700,000 for day use of its ball room for four days during Trump’s inauguration as president. American media outlets reported that attendees paid a million dollars on the eve of Trump’s swearing-in for a “Leadership Luncheon” with the president at the hotel oozing luxury.

Soon enough, many of the nearly 150 foreign embassies in Washington competed with one another to host their National Day receptions at the Trump hotel. The capital grapevine had it once that Trump asked his chief of staff if Prime Minister Narendra Modi was staying at his iconic hotel while visiting the White House. Trump’s reaction on being told no―Modi preferred the Willard Intercontinental―is not known. India has never held any official reception on Trump’s property.

I was hosted at Trump International Hotel many times, often by ambassadors of several countries, who wanted to be seen at its plush bar not with their peers, but, curiously, with foreign correspondents. In turn, I entertained several Indian American Republicans there, including Keralite Vinson Palathingal, who famously went to the US Capitol during the January 6 demonstrations carrying India’s tricolour. Palathingal remains a steadfast ‘Trumpeteer’ to this day. It was not that my Indian American guests could not afford the Trump hotel; they were intimidated by its aura and the presence of so many cabinet members, department heads and senators hanging around in the hotel lobby or wining and dining there. They needed to be with a compatriot who was familiar in its surroundings.

After Trump left the White House, his neighbourhood hotel fell on bad times. In May 2022, the hotel was sold and is now a Waldorf Astoria. But Trump should not have any regrets because his sale of this hotel broke many real estate records.

The author was a foreign correspondent in Washington

the-fundamental-reason-behind-trumps-success-was-his-ability-to-convert-average-americans-feelings-of-grievance-into-votes-for-him

Sun Nov 17 14:52:37 IST 2024

Washington, DC

The fundamental reason why Donald Trump won the presidency in 2024 was his ability to convert many average Americans’ feelings of grievance into votes for him. In the run-up to the 2024 elections, a very large number of Americans feared they were not as wealthy, safe, respected or healthy as they should be. They had a feeling that these deficits were not their fault but were the results of something wrongfully done to them or taken from them. The genius of Trump was to validate and exaggerate these fears and convert them into votes for himself. In each case, Trump was able to take an element of truth and convert it into a larger “untruth” that was believed by millions. Further, he was able to take his own tales of grievance and conflate them with his supporters’ sense of grievance, thereby cementing their loyalty and enthusiasm for him.

For most Trump voters, the most important issue was the economy. Trump claimed that Biden and the Democrats had “destroyed” the American economy despite the fact that the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve had engineered a proverbial “soft landing” coming out of an economically disastrous pandemic which Trump had failed to manage. Job growth had been unparalleled, unemployment was at historically low levels, the stock markets had surpassed pre-pandemic levels, and GDP growth was robust.
However, the political Achilles heel of this vibrant economy was inflation. The average voter had little first-hand knowledge of the positive aspects that made the American economy. They cared even less for these positive economic indicators when he or she had to pay more for groceries, gasoline and housing. Trump was able to convert this inflation factor and Democrats’ attempts to downplay its significance into validation that the Biden administration, including Kamala Harris, had destroyed the American economy and taken wealth from the average voter.

Immigration was a second leading issue for Trump voters. Many Americans did not feel as safe as they believed they should be. Lurid accounts of car-jackings, murders, robberies and even mass shoplifting left many Americans uneasy, even though overall crime levels were down. Trump had a ready answer for this fear. Safety had been taken from the average American by those largely black and brown immigrants who were entering the United States from across the southern border. Other countries were sending their murderers, rapists and insane, pet-eating criminals into America. In Trump’s words, America had become the “garbage can for the world”.

According to Trump, Biden and Harris had deprived average Americans of safety on purpose to allow non-citizen immigrants to vote for Democrats. Even though there were statistics showing immigrant crime to be at lower rates than for other American groups and non-citizens were not voting in elections, this did not matter. Nor did it matter that Trump had personally torpedoed bipartisan legislative efforts to fix the immigration problem. The average Trump voter—80 per cent of whom were white—could see many more brown and black immigrants in their community, and their feelings of grievance over safety were validated by Trump.

Many voters swinging to Trump were motivated by what they saw as a lack of respect for their beliefs and for them personally. Harris and the Democrats made it plain they opposed core beliefs held by many Americans on anti-abortion or “right to life”, anti-homosexuality, anti-transgender and pro-Christian nationalism. Trump was able to motivate many who held these beliefs to get off the couch, register and vote for him by portraying Democrats as elites who were purposefully trying to take away the respect and power that rightfully belonged to these swing voters.

Coming out of the pandemic, there were also voters concerned about declines in health for them or family and friends close to them. Observable increases in such neuropsychological disorders as autism blended with lingering resentment over masking, vaccinations, social distancing shutdowns and quarantines. Many Trump supporters were led to believe that Trump had been right about Covid and that measures to combat the pandemic had been intentional impositions foisted on average Americans. Trump’s embrace of figures as Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and his anti-vaccination, anti-fluoride positions confirmed to some that perceived health deficits were not naturally occurring phenomena but were a result of actions by Democrats. Trump even extended this feeling about personal health to concern for those affected by natural disasters. According to Trump, they had been left by the federal government to endure the harm inflicted upon them. The need to combat climate change to avoid disasters affecting health was pictured as just another ploy of ruling elites.

But how did Trump turn many voters’ fears about the economy, immigration, respect and health into action in his favour?

His operational tactics remained the same as they had been since fighting charges of his companies’ racial discrimination in the earliest days of his career. The Trump bedrock tactic remained—attack, attack, attack. Describe your opponents as enemies in vulgar and offensive terms. Never show weakness or doubt. His remarkable response to assassination attempts was impressive in this regard.
A second tactical tenet was to use exaggerations and outright lies to create a view of reality in his favour. The Washington Post fact checker documented more than 30,000 false or misleading claims Trump made during his presidency, and this continued into his four-year long campaign to regain the White House. His statements that he had won the 2020 election and the crowds storming the Capitol on January 6 were simply patriotic Americans trying to “stop the steal”, was symbolic of this strategy. These falsehoods played into Trump’s overall grievance validation and exaggeration strategy, and falsehoods concerning the economy, immigration, core beliefs and even health were particularly prominent.

One must not underrate the entertainment skills that Trump brought to the campaign as a part of the “how” he was able to win. Trump rallies were never dull and even, at times, humorous. Using skills that he had honed over 15 seasons as the star of the reality television series TheApprentice, Trump knew how to use all the skills of the entertainer to captivate an audience. Of course, “reality TV” is not actually reality at all. Rather, it is an expertly crafted fantasy using articulate, emotional characters and outlines rather than written scripts to create narratives that seem real. Trump knows how to create impressions that are entertaining and appear real in the eye of the beholder already inclined to his narrative for the occasion.

Now that Trump has shown his appeal for a majority of American voters, a question is whether his appeal based upon grievance affirmation, attacks, untruths, personal self-confidence and entertainment value will endure. Trump’s first term is a good guide to answering this question.

Although there were bumps in the road and discontinuities during the first three years of his presidency, Trump remained appealing for a large portion of the American electorate until they were faced with a crisis that affected them directly but was not susceptible to the strategy and tactics that had won Trump his first election. In the case of the first term, this crisis was the pandemic. In his second term, such a crisis may be created by a Trump administration overreach through following the precepts of the “Project 2025” outline. Mass deportation of illegal immigrants or pro-inflation measures such as universal high tariffs may create such a crisis. Such a crisis might also be created by outside factors. War, pandemics, and climate disaster are all breeding grounds for crises that may not be susceptible to Trump’s skills.

Whether Trump gains and retains unprecedented power within the American governmental system is largely in the hands of the Republican party. Republicans will have control of both executive and legislative branches and unprecedented influence over the judiciary. Trump’s control over the party, thus far, has been based on his political success with voters. Very few Republican leaders have the courage to stand up to Trump. Those who did stand up to Trump he quickly subdued or dispatched politically. However, if Trump meets with a crisis that causes a political disaster in the 2026 midterms, the Republican leaders will likely drop him. In the absence of a crisis he cannot meet, his appeal will be enduring and fundamentally change American government and politics for the foreseeable future. Truth and compassion will not be the currency of political discourse and the progress the country has made in such fields as racial and sexual equality, the rule of law and environmental protection will likely be set back.

The author is senior advisor at the Albright Stonebridge Group. He was US assistant secretary of commerce for trade development.

voters-believed-trumps-depiction-of-illegal-immigrants-as-a-source-of-their-economic-woes

Sun Nov 17 11:30:49 IST 2024

Washington, DC & Minneapolis

Donald Trump’s resounding success in the US elections has reinforced the political and journalistic elites’ deficient understanding of public attitudes in the post-pandemic world order. On top was the end of the fixation to involve America in global disputes to preserve and perpetuate its hegemony. For the less well-heeled Americans, this was unnecessary spending, compounding their immediate economic challenges.

The emergence of a consensus for an inward-looking political philosophy among a cross-section of voters lent Trump a trope to present himself as the 'peace candidate' and gain wider currency for his "America first, Americans first" message. This destroyed the social coalition the Democrats painstakingly assembled in the 2020 elections. According to a New York Times analysis, counties that were strongholds of the Democrats in 2020 witnessed a drop of 1.9 million votes for Kamala Harris.
This shifting allegiance helped Trump win over 75 million votes against Harris’ 71.8 million—this is the second time any Republican candidate has won the popular vote since 1988—and clinch 312 of 538 votes in the electoral college.

The developments do not mean merely a loss of power for the Democrats, but have left them with a resourceful yet ineffective organisation, which despite massive capital, a favourable media discourse, celebrity endorsements and a proclaimed loftiness of moralistic standards was spurned by a diverse array of regions and demographic groups. Party insiders said their initial assessment was that a "too moralistic" war bugle, which over-emphasised the need to repudiate Trump's politics in order to save the US democracy and its pluralistic traditions, came across as either vague or preachy or even hopelessly removed for several sections of the electorate who were beset by soaring food prices. They found Trump’s depiction of illegal immigrants as a source of their economic woes plausible.

David Schultz, a prominent author and professor of political science at Hamline University, Minnesota, summed up the Democrats’ staggering election loss as a fallout of their “taking the working class and people of colour for granted and focusing on identity politics and on the interests of those who are more affluent”. He said the problem for Democrats was not so much the loss, but the shift of many constituencies away from the party. "The US is more conservative than the extreme of the Democratic Party and the message should be that class and economics is more important to most than is identity. This election revealed that the political left-right continuum as defined by American politics for the last few years has shifted."
Barbara Cox, a policy analyst based in Minneapolis, said "the Democrats will have to do a lot of listening to the working class voters and policies". Trump’s "efficient businessman" image played a role in consolidating the working class for him. He made improvements not just in the rural hinterland; his urban swings were evident across the political map, including in New York City where he gained significant ground. The decline in public interest in voting for the Democrats in key cities, such as Detroit and Philadelphia, precluded Harris from winning the battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Among the people of colour, Trump’s gains were monumental. According to an exit poll conducted by Edison Research, whereas Trump polled 32 per cent Hispanic votes to Biden's 65 per cent in 2020, his share in 2024 climbed to 46 per cent against Harris’ 52 per cent. Among Hispanic men, Trump registered a vote share of 55 per cent, which validates concerns regarding a cross section of voters’ incompatibility with a woman head of state.

Harris’s October surprise included a backlash from Arab Americans who were concerned about the human rights situation in Gaza. In Michigan's Arab American majority city of Dearborn, Trump beat Harris 42.5 per cent to 36 per cent. A staggering 18 per cent voted for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Trump’s support among Afro-Americans went up from 8 in 10 voters in 2020 to 9 in 10 voters. Every three of 10 black men under the age of 45 voted for him, which is roughly double the numbers he got in 2020. ESPN anchor Stephen Smith argued that Michelle Obama’s speech in Kalamazoo in Michigan, where she warned African Americans that supporting Trump would mean voting "against us", backfired as the intended audience "felt pressured and misrepresented".

There was also a widespread feeling that the Democratic Party had become an echo-chamber of the elites and the left liberals. Trump seized on this vexation, and accused Harris of trying to restructure the American polity on socialist lines. Harris’ entry into the race as a handpicked candidate of the Democratic National Committee cemented the notion of her being a creation of the establishment. Though Harris raised a whopping $1 billion in the early days of her campaign and gained endorsements from celebrities, the average voter saw this as the elites’ attempt to dictate America’s political and democratic processes. Two assassination attempts on Trump added allure to his story of a persecuted political protagonist trying to repair the system.
Yet, there is no dearth of crestfallen voters who are fretting that the return of Trump will exacerbate social divisions. "The inherent white nationalism in Trump’s politics is hard to miss. While many people voted for him as they were enraged by an ailing economy, another Trump presidency will erode our social fabric," said Tahiru Titus Jafaru, an African-American who retired as civil engineer.

The fear that American democracy might soon reach a dangerous inflection point is shared by many white Americans as well. Kirk Dornfeld, a retired medical practitioner, said Trump could push the American society irreversibly to the right, while hollowing out institutions. "I expect Trump will pardon all the people jailed in connection with the insurrection on January 6, 2021,” said Dornfeld. “He will ban abortion and abortion drugs nationwide. He will appoint young, conservative judges to replace the older conservative judges in the Supreme Court, and he will try to control the military."

trumps-preferred-transactional-approach-to-foreign-policy-meshes-well-with-modis-bent-towards-strategic-autonomy

Sat Nov 16 16:08:38 IST 2024

Washington, DC

While much has changed in the world since Donald Trump’s 2020 visit to India, many of the bilateral, regional, and global challenges that defined the Trump-Modi partnership remain the same. US-India cooperation, tethered by vibrant people-to-people relations, has continued to broaden and deepen. The relationship is a rare area of bipartisan agreement in America despite an otherwise polarised political landscape. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump are clearly comfortable with each other, and the president’s preferred transactional approach to foreign policy meshes well with the prime minister’s bent towards strategic autonomy. The new Trump administration is less likely than the Biden administration to raise matters related to India’s domestic policies or its relations with Russia. In short, all signs point to continued strong bilateral cooperation during Trump 2.0, but there will likely be some new bumps in the road as well.

Modi and Trump have already reportedly committed to “further strengthening bilateral ties across technology, defence, energy, space and several other sectors”. Bilateral and regional cooperation on security to address China’s malign behaviour, such as joint military exercises, the Quad, and supply chain resilience, are all likely to continue. This may include Biden-era initiatives such as the Quad’s maritime domain cooperation with the Pacific Island countries. While references to climate change will not be stressed, continued support for India’s clean energy objectives, including via the promotion of US exports and technology, were a feature of Trump 1.0 and would continue. Trump is also expected to support India’s continued growing presence on the global stage, including a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. It will be less inclined to support major joint initiatives in multilateral forums such G20, instead focusing on bilateral and smaller groupings. Leader-level meetings of the Quad, introduced under Biden, will likely continue and will offer new opportunities for engagement, especially as India is set to host the 2025 Quad Summit.

This is not to say that there are no points of potential friction headed our way. The Trump campaign has stated increasing tariffs as a major objective. With its current surplus of $33 billion so far in 2024, India is a potential target. India’s bilateral trade surplus was similarly a bone of contention under the past Trump administration, when India was pressed to increase purchases of US oil and defence materials. We can anticipate similar lengthy disruptions were new US tariffs, and any reciprocal Indian tariffs, are to be imposed.

The deportation of all undocumented foreign nationals currently in the United States is another top Trump 2.0 campaign pledge that could place stress on the relationship. India is now the third leading source of illegal US migrants, and some or all of the estimated 7.25 lakh or more Indian undocumented nationals here could be affected by the deportations, placing pressure on the Modi government to respond. On the other hand, US-India cooperation to clamp down on the traffickers who prey on would-be Indian migrants could be a win for both sides. The first Trump administration’s sceptical view on the H1B temporary worker visa programme will also likely be repeated, which will disproportionately affect non-resident Indians.

Just as Trump 1.0 took a hard line against Iran, ending the Obama-era nuclear agreement and imposing new sanctions, Trump 2.0 has pledged to take a hard line, especially given Iran’s threats to assassinate Trump and its control of proxy groups currently enflaming the Middle East. The Trump administration will press to ensure India continues to bar Iranian petroleum imports and may question its trade relationship with Iran as well as India’s decision to assent to Iran’s BRICS membership. But here, too, there is an opportunity: although the current Middle East conflict has squashed for now the possibility of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic corridor, the pursuit of a deal post cease-fire would help check Iran’s influence even as it bolsters India’s economic and development ambitions.

While at least some of the contrast in length of US-India bilateral agenda announced under the Trump and Biden administrations are due to drafting styles, a reduced, more transactional agenda is likely to remain the preference of Trump 2.0. The new administration would nevertheless do well to continue further broadening beyond what has come before. In addition to the policies already suggested above, more subnational engagement, including via the timely opening of new consulates, will increase the people-to-people ties that have been so beneficial to the relationship. While both sides favour domestic manufacturing, a focus on supporting two-way investments, including by smaller companies and in both countries’ lesser wealthy states, could bring work opportunities to those who most need it. A deep and continued focus on health issues (including pharma and med-tech) as well as joint strategic hi-tech development will enable both countries to meet current and future challenges and create new opportunities for their citizens.

Just 11 years ago, a case involving the arrest of an Indian diplomat was able to redound negatively on other aspects of the US-India relationship. More recently, even serious foreign policy disagreements, as well as accusations of attempted assassination have not derailed progress thanks to a broader and deeper scope of bilateral cooperation. Continuing down a more expansive path will position India and the United States to maintain a strong partnership for years to come.

The author is visiting fellow, Center for Strategic & International Studies, Washington, DC. She was a senior diplomat who most recently served as US consul general in Hyderabad

the-week-hansa-research-survey-2024-indias-best-b-schools

Sat Nov 09 17:09:00 IST 2024

THE WEEK-HANSA RESEARCH BEST B-SCHOOLS SURVEY 2024

Research methodology

PERCEPTUAL OPINION COLLECTION

A primary survey was conducted in August-September 2024, where 193 academic experts, 585 current students and 32 recruiters from 17 Indian cities nominated the best b-schools in the country. The cities selected were major education hubs.

A closed-ended questionnaire was given to stakeholders, asking them to nominate and rank the top 25 b-schools in India and the top b-schools in their zones.

Perceptual score: Calculated based on the number of nominations received and the actual ranks given to the b-school in the All India category and in its zone.

FACTUAL INFORMATION COLLECTION

A dedicated website was created as an interface and the link was sent to more than 1,400 b-schools, of which 174 responded on time.

Factual score: Information collected from the b-schools was combined by applying appropriate weights to each parameter as given below:

PARAMETER WEIGHTAGE

* Overall infrastructure 20%

(Includes accreditations and safety measures like women's grievance redressal cell)

* Faculty 12.5%

(Includes teacher-student ratio, publications and consultancy by faculty)

* Teaching-learning and extracurricular 30%

(Includes work experience and diversity of students, and alumni base)

* Placements 37.5%

(Includes average salary and average internship stipends)

RANKING METHODOLOGY

Ranking is based on a composite score, derived by combining the perceptual score and the factual score. For b-schools that could not respond within the deadline, the composite score was derived by combining perceptual score with an interpolated appropriate factual score. B-schools that shared their data in the past two years were included. Therefore, factual data was considered for 236 b-schools―174 of which responded this year and 62 which had responded in the past two years.

india-s-best-b-schools-challenges-lower-salaries-and-ai-misuse

Tue Nov 12 13:18:55 IST 2024

Rajnish Kawale was not content with how his career was shaping up. A mechanical engineer from Nagpur, he was working as operations manager at a power station in Jharkhand. He had been in the job for a few years, and things were okay. But, he felt that opportunities to meet his aspirations were limited. “I wanted to change domain,” said the 27-year-old. “So, I opted for an MBA.” He hoped specialising in marketing management would get him into the world of fast moving consumer goods or retail. “I am trying for consulting and brand management roles via campus placements,” he said. “But, companies that come to our campus do not offer high packages; I think the high packages are offered only to top institutes like the IIMs or tier-one management institutes.”

His course fee for two years was around Rs12 lakh. “I took a loan of Rs10 lakh and was looking at a package of at least Rs15 lakh,” he said. “It may prove difficult initially.”

Kawale’s story, so far, does not fit the archetypal image about b-school education in India. Despite his wait to land a job that he is happy with, his experience with campus placement makes it clear that there seems to be no lack of interest among recruiters in visiting even b-schools that are outside the top tier. The issue seems to be the gap between expected remuneration and the salaries on offer. Is it an issue in India’s best b-schools?

Said Father S. George, SJ, director, XLRI, Jamshedpur: “The job market has not been doing well in the last two years. The pay packages are down. Last year, three-four students got Rs1 crore, but after carefully going through the packages, an auditor found that about 60 per cent of that was bonus.”

XLRI’s postgraduate diploma in human resource management is regarded as the best in the Asia-Pacific region. Professor M.G. Jomon, who teaches HRM and is also a board member of XLRI, said that a few students in the programme had to compromise with their package last year. “This year, again, could be challenging,” he said. “The number of jobs has come down because of consolidation in the industry.”

He said that while students at top institutes are able to secure placements, a majority of management students in the country are under tremendous pressure to get placed. “If jobs are not created, where do they get placed?” he asked. “There are economic challenges and the jobs are coming down. And, the expectations of the students are going up because they are second generation employees whose parents have already worked. Nowadays, management students who are in their early 20s want to be next to their MD in terms of seniority. It is not practical. Their unwillingness to learn from the grassroots level affects their career moves.”

Professor Debashis Chatterjee, director, Indian Institute of Management, Kozhikode, said there were a couple of reasons for the dearth of very high packages. “There is significant decline in growth of developed economies,” he said. “This, coupled with the influx of generative AI and its offshoots, help organisations use human resources in a disciplined manner. As a result, outsourced jobs from the US are decreasing. The pay packages were higher during 2012 to 2022. However, the need of such resources is reducing. The graduates join firms which contribute towards the Indian economy or Indian economy-based firms. The packages reflect the appetite of the fifth largest economy (India), not the largest economy (the US).”

Professor A. Venkat Raman, dean, Faculty of Management Studies, University of Delhi, also said that recession in Europe and the US has led to either a lack of projects or stagnation in the number of hires and that was being reflected in the salary packages. “Substantial increase in packages for management graduates (the average salary for FMS graduates rose from Rs23 lakh/annum in 2019 to Rs34 lakh/annum in 2023) is not a true reflection of the economic growth,” he said. “There is some course correction in the salary packages, especially in 2023-24.”

What is the future outlook?

“India is a fast maturing market for trained managers,” said Venkat Raman. “But, the societal and human dynamics are not similar to America or Europe. So, the notion of market should not be purely economic and monetary. The b-school curriculum should be aligned to societal realities. For example, culture and values inside and outside the business organisations sometimes contradict each other. Aping the strategies from the west will not be appropriate. B-schools in India should reinvent their curriculum to be appropriate to the Indian context.”

George stressed the importance of regularly interacting with industry and veterans to learn how to update the curriculum in line with the needs of organisations. “We have increased the number of courses offered in AI and business analytics,” he said. “The main skilling of students is technology-related.”

While keeping up to date with technology is vital, developments in AI seem to have had a negative impact on learning outcomes. For instance, assignments have become obsolete as students are using AI tools to do them. “Thus, the approach in education should become more oral and experimental,” said George. “That allows the student to solve real life problems in real time. There is a general consciousness that evaluating and teaching methods should change. It is an era of experimental learning.”

A visit to the behavioural lab at XLRI would change the perception of many on what happens at b-schools. In the lab, students take turns volunteering for EEGs of their brain while they are exposed to stimuli. Other students in the group record the brain waves of volunteers. Priyanka Saggu, the lab manager, said that the device helps in market research. “It helps to understand whether there are changes in the electrical activity in the brain when an advertisement is shown,” she said. “By studying brain waves, students and marketers learn how stimuli impact attention and engagement, what the customer directly looks at and what is captivating or engaging in the product or ad.”

The challenges before management graduates include staying relevant in terms of their skill sets and ability to shape their thinking, managing professional and personal lives, distress in organisations and drawing meaningful work from employees and risk taking amid uncertainty, said Chatterjee. He stressed that skills imparted in b-schools equipped students to work in competitive scenarios. “However, re-skilling is required because of the uncertainties organisations face; technological, geopolitical, economic uncertainties,” he said. “The way forward from each of these uncertainties lead to different scenarios or options.”

Chatterjee added that having options at the organisation level and the individual level was quite important in this era. “During the past century, organisations were working on products or improved products (based on same technology) and brick-and-mortar models, mostly,” he said. “[Now,] survival of organisations is at stake. Adaptability is the key skill at both the organisation and the individual level.”

So, how do b-schools ensure students are ready for this environment?

“Curriculum changes are important in this realm,” said Chatterjee. “Before 1980, most b-schools worked with lectures as a primary form of pedagogical approach. After 2000, the dominant pedagogy adopted by b-schools is case studies. Going forward, pedagogical innovations are already underway to equip the graduates and make them industry ready. For example, the usage of simulations across the classroom environment among various functional areas as well as integrative simulations are on the rise. This helps in integrating perspectives and overcoming siloed thinking.” He said that new courses on AI and big data analytics are compulsory.

Varun Nagaraj, dean and professor of information management and analytics at the S.P. Jain Institute of Management and Research, Mumbai, pointed out that there are learning gaps in the current generation of students that are coming out, particularly with their lack of curiosity, unwillingness to work hard and take responsibility for outcomes, and lack of resilience when things do not go their way.

He said that he gets regular feedback from recruiters. “The most important is that they are not reading,” he said. “Reading makes you more curious. Management graduates should have the ability to work in an ambiguous environment when there is uncertainty all around. To prepare students, we have to toughen them up.”

Nagaraj, who has 35 years of industry experience, said that he trusted his instinct as to what the company needs. “I have hired and fired people in the industry,” he said. “One aspect of critical thinking [which is being taught to students] is that one should understand the arguments on both sides of any topic, understand the evidence on both sides, have an opinion on which evidence is credible or why it is not credible.”

Nagaraj, too, spoke about having to tackle AI from hampering education. “The only way in this world of ChatGPT is a pen and paper exam,” he said. He also said that brief case studies have become the norm. “For a 90-minute class, one has a 25-page case to read,” he said. “Now the students can ask ChatGPT for a one-page summary. So, the case study approach can go waste. Harvard came up with the idea of quick cases. So, the way one is teaching cases is changing, with small, example-oriented cases.”

Bhishm Chugani, director, career services and alumni relations, SPJIMR, said that conventional thinking was giving way to new business realities because every business was now looking at quarter-to-quarter results. “We have made our subjects tool-oriented―for instance, we teach our students ERP (enterprise resource planning) and teach them about particular ERP for sales, procurement, HR, etc,” he said. “We try to mix it with some workshop so that students have thorough knowledge about it. We inculcate current practices and tools and best practices.”

Chugani explained the continued pull of a management graduate even in the less than ideal scenario in the market. “Many top companies come to the top b-schools because they have the cream of students who joined after rigorous selection process,” he said. He also decoded the hiring logic that startups use. “Startups do not have the capacity to hire from the top schools,” he said. “Many still do to show investors that they, too, have people from the top schools. For many startups, hiring from the top b-schools is more to do to with attracting funding from potential investors.”

Professor Veena Vohra, vice dean (accreditation, ranking, industry and alumni) at the School of Business Management, NMIMS, said that b-schools not only carry out research, but also make sure that research findings make it to the curriculum and the students are able to form thoughts and opinions based on the latest research. “A lot of digital literacy is built up and we are embedding all our courses with digital content,” she said. “Managing change and resilience is another aspect―how graduates become resilient and understand how resilience can be built in organisations.” She added that crisis management was another area of focus. “We are also using simulations and are not only buying, but also developing them,” she said.

Venkat Raman said the job market for MBAs would become more nuanced wherein graduates with well-rounded competencies in technology, strategy, economics and people skills are likely to be more sought after. He also spoke about “non-traditional” opportunities. “Besides sports management, which is a multi-billion business, areas like fine arts, culture, entertainment, health and hygiene require professionally trained managers,” he said.

He added that there was a responsibility on management schools and graduates to get the best out of India’s demographic dividend. “A large proportion of this young, well-educated and ambitious age group does not have opportunities to show its talent,” he said. “Management graduates and schools should be adept at creating new ventures through greater emphasis on mentoring great business ideas to generate employment opportunities more widely.”

GURBINDER SINGH

Director, LM Thapar School of Management

B-school graduates are facing challenges like fewer job opportunities because of economic uncertainty and more competition from both new graduates and experienced workers. Many employers now want specific skills like data and tech knowledge, which some b-school graduates may lack. Additionally, adjusting to remote work and managing stress about finding stable jobs add to their difficulties.

VIKRAM SINGH TOMAR

Director (admissions and outreach), O.P. Jindal Global University (JGU)

The competitive landscape of the job market has intensified, with a decline in non-marketing positions across various business functions and a critical need for sales roles in nearly all job categories, posing significant challenges for recent graduates from business schools. The evolving skill requirements, which were not foreseen in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, have now become the standard. Additionally, the demand for new hires has significantly decreased, coinciding with a reduction in the cost-to-company figures offered.

NANDITA MISHRA

Director, Chetana’s Institute of Management and Research

The placement scenario worldwide has been slow and is always shaped by several global factors. The average package offered had not been so different from what was offered last year, the process is in progress but definitely the skills required have been changing. The traditional roles offered are declining and more emerging fields, interdisciplinary in nature, are evolving.

SWADESH KUMAR SINGH

CEO, GNIOT Institute of Management Studies

Digital transformation is at the centrE of every organisation in the current world. Whether it is a startup, a not-for-profit, or a large corporate, leaders and their workforce need to be digitally competent. Managers have to be conversant with the latest IT trends and promote a mindset that embraces technology and innovation. Hence, b-schools must revamp their curriculums with emphasis on digital marketing, data analytics, digital strategy, and digital transformation to ensure their students are technology literate. The responsibility lies in bridging the skills gap and empowering graduates to succeed.

C. JOE ARUN, SJ

Director, Loyola Institute of Business Administration, Chennai

Learning discerning skills help our students become purpose-driven individuals who are capable of making a difference in the lives of people, not just improving their lives. We try not to teach them, but accompany them in the processes of personal growth more than accumulation of knowledge. Not to become merely corporate leaders but become responsible citizens.

ATANU KUMAR DAS

Director, Institute of Insurance and Risk Management, Hyderabad

Going by the ambitious mission of a developed India by 2047, there is a need for significantly reorienting the b-school curriculum that conforms to the disaggregated goal posts that corporates have started envisioning. All-round upgrading is the key success factor in realising the 21st century as India’s century. This is not limited to the students. It commences with institutional change and management, resources management and skills enhancement and it should be enabled by the integration of the latest technology on an overall basis.

PROF S. SREENIVASA MURTHY

Director, Institute of Public Enterprise, Hyderabad

Many b-school graduates are seeing reductions in pay packages compared to a few years ago, largely because of economic uncertainty and changing industry dynamics. While some sectors may still offer competitive salaries, others are tightening budgets, impacting overall compensation. Adaptability and continuous skill development will be key for graduates to navigate these changes.

B-schools in India should prepare students for the diverse economy, cultural nuances, and entrepreneurial spirit prevalent in the country. Emphasising practical skills and navigating complex regulations are crucial, along with fostering digital literacy.

SARDAR TARANJIT SINGH

Managing Director, JIS Group

India’s job market spans traditional industries like manufacturing, agriculture and textiles, alongside modern sectors like IT, fintech, and e-commerce. B-schools must equip students with versatile skills that apply across these diverse industries, blending traditional business principles with digital innovation. B-school graduates need to understand how to manage business operations both digitally and in resource-limited settings, preparing them for work in underserved markets, too.

PROF K.M. SHARATH KUMAR

Dean, Faculty of Management and Commerce, M.S. Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences

To cherish the vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047, there is a need for disruptive innovation with transparent regulations. In order to match the GDP of developed nations, there is a need for b-school graduates to think out of the box to contribute to the economy, leading to increase in the per capita income of every individual. This challenge can be addressed by enabling b-school graduates to look at tapping rural market for increasing
their gross income and spend.

USHA MANJUNATH

Director, IIHMR, Bengaluru

While health care remains a critical industry, especially post-pandemic, job market volatility persists. Hospitals, pharmaceutical companies, and health care organisations are cautious about hiring for management roles, focusing more on cost optimisation and efficiency. However, at the same time, the demand for skills in health care data analytics, health informatics, and digital health solutions such as telemedicine and AI-driven health care is rapidly increasing.

indian-institute-of-management-director-kozhikode-prof-debashis-chatterjee-interview

Sat Nov 09 13:21:14 IST 2024

Q/ How will the job market evolve?

A/ The geopolitical uncertainties would prevail in the short run. Accordingly, the type of recruitment would be focused on how the developed economies would be doing. If there is an improvement in the atmosphere that inspires confidence, it would lead to better recruitment cycles and hence work moving to India.

In the medium term, the most important challenge for educational institutions, corporations and governments will be: how do we equip our graduates to reskill in terms of not only technology but also organising the firm going forward. This would help develop both resilient employees as well as resilient organisations. Here is where the impetus is required from the management schools as well as technology schools. This is where foresight coupled with changes in curricula is important. Experimentation at the b-school level by being laboratories for the organisations would help pave the way forward. Collaboration should increase between technology schools, b-schools and universities going forward. We cannot have a strong India without resilient organisations and resilient workforce.

Then, in the long run, we need to focus on the values that individuals should live by. These values should help produce enduring societies and ecosystems.

Q/ What are some of the features of a market like India that b-schools need to keep in mind?

A/ B-schools in India should keep in mind that Indian economy is going to witness a tremendous growth, despite the uncertainties, over the next two decades. The only thing that b-schools or schools should know is that the growth rates may differ owing to the possessing or lack of political will, technological challenges and uptake, and trade relations among countries. These would translate into type of skills required by the economies. B-schools should train employees at various levels of experience as well as levels of the employees in the organisation. The horizons in which the faculty need to change their curriculum as well as upskill themselves is one of the specific challenges. If b-schools retain faculty (because of tenure) and thus cannot impart appropriate education, it would not only be unproductive for the faculty, it would be hurting the education. Hence, a specific challenge is to train and equip faculty in this fast-changing environment.

Q/ India's demographic dividend has been talked about. What role will management education play in cashing in on our advantage?

A/ As indicated earlier, this is definitely an inflection point for our country. China grew at a fast pace between 2005 and 2015. India is a decade behind. Hence, our growth is important over the next decade. The role of education in general and management education in particular becomes important. How do schools cash in on this advantage by keeping themselves up to the pace and being relevant for organisations (locally as well as globally) is an important question to ponder.

Q/ Do you see possibilities in management education in “non-traditional” areas like sports management or any other field?

A/ There are a number of non-traditional areas that would emerge because of changes in consumer behaviour, population demographics and technological changes. Some of them like sports management and entertainment would see management influx owing to the growth of the Indian economy and the rising income level and aspirations of the growing population. Some of the other sectors that would witness tremendous potential include areas around work of the future or gig economy. This would enable workers to have multiple skills. While moonlighting is not considered good for the economy, it is important to understand that life of careers would be the norm of the future rather than career for life. It is also pertinent that management education should also endeavour to develop the creative quotient of future managers.

Q/ What do you feel about the startup ecosystem in India?

A/ The startup ecosystem received significant support over the last decade. Government-backed initiatives like ‘Startup India’ have also created a tremendous support base in the regulatory scheme of things. The number of unicorns have also increased significantly in this past decade. This would only become higher with some unicorns shaping the economies globally. The risk capital that is getting contributed towards startups is still low. A lot of startups that receive funds at this point in time are for digital platforms. Fundamental investments in technology-based startups is still low in proportion. There are efforts by the government to fund these startups. However, venture funding availability for such startups is quite limited. Corporates or business houses should commit risk capital in fundamental technologies like medicine, space, renewables, climate, sustainability and AI. Without the above, the Indian trajectory of growth would not shift towards producing world-class products in at least one or two industries by the end of the next decade.

the-need-to-infuse-ethics-into-india-s-mba-landscape

Sat Nov 09 13:22:20 IST 2024

The educated criminal is the most dangerous kind.

―John G. Diefenbaker

Wharton dropout Nirav Modi embezzled Rs6,498 crore from the Punjab National Bank through fake documentation. Former ICICI Bank CEO Chanda Kochhar was arrested for misusing Rs1,700 crore for personal gain. Yes Bank’s Rana Kapoor spent four years in prison for bank fraud.

These incidents illustrate white-collar crimes―financially motivated offences by educated individuals in positions of trust. Such crimes encompass deceit, hiding information and violating trust through activities like fraud, money laundering, cybercrime and insider trading. White-collar criminals know the potential consequences, and are often driven by greed. Alarmingly, the National Bar Association reports a 15 per cent annual increase in white-collar crimes in India.

Society views modern managers as savvy, affluent and impressive. For many Indian families, b-school is the ticket to this lifestyle. MBA graduates from top schools join a privileged class, shouldering major responsibilities and earning hefty pay checks. White-collar crime happens when graduates misuse their education. The relentless focus on profit creates immense pressure and opportunities for quick, unethical gains. This leads to financial traps that can ruin both themselves and others.

This trend stems from intense focus on profit and a drive to outshine others. It is unclear if these traits draw students to b-schools or if schools foster them. Professor Janet Walker at Portland State University says that students attracted to the MBA program are “self-interested utility maximisers” who believe that the degree enhances their employability and future prospects. Researchers Simmering & Wilcox find that MBA aspirants are self-directed and expect fruitful careers. Aspirants expecting competence development from the programme aim to make a mark in society, while those expecting career benefits desire wealth. Wharton psychologist Amy Wrzesniewski believes that aspirants aim for personal power, prestige, social status and esteem. Meanwhile, leadership expert Venkat Krishnan finds that the two-year MBA enhances self-oriented values like comfort, intellectualism, independence and status while reducing other-oriented values like loyalty, family security, friendships and respect for elders among Indian students.

A study of 5,000 b-schools reveals that MBA students cheat more than their non-MBA peers, with Columbia’s William Bowers finding that two-thirds admit to cheating through methods like copying and plagiarism. Research from the American Economic Association indicates honesty declines after just one economics course. At Cornell, students assessed their ethical decision-making before and after a course, reporting a 40 per cent decrease in the likelihood of correcting a billing error and a 21 per cent drop in returning lost cash. Those exposed to game theory show even less honesty, as a focus on self-interest promotes “moral muteness”. Wharton professor Adam Grant finds that exposure to economic terminology diminishes compassion, especially among business students. Cheating can lead to unethical management, tarnishing reputations across the board. This aligns with former Stanford professor Hal Leavitt's view that business education warps students into “critters with lopsided brains, icy hearts and sunken souls”.

The ethical orientation of business students is central to navigating ethical dilemmas. This foundation should include an understanding of social control and the consequences of unethical choices. Research indicates that unethical behaviour is often calculated, driven by an internal cost-benefit analysis rather than impulsive actions. A study of MBA students in India found that while bribing causes internal conflict, employees are more likely to resort to it when their welfare is at stake. In cultures where bribery is normalised, managers may feel pressured to comply, but they are less likely to engage in such practices when facing potential customer backlash or legal consequences.

This behaviour may stem from pluralistic ignorance, where individuals mistakenly believe their ethical views diverge from the majority. For instance, a student opposed to alcohol might think everyone else supports it. Within organisations, these misconceptions can lead ethical employees to expect unethical behaviour from others, ultimately justifying their own misconduct. By enhancing students’ sense of social responsibility through focused ethics education, b-schools can better prepare future managers to make ethical and legal decisions. Fostering a sense of purpose and community is essential for aligning student ambitions with ethical standards.

Incorporating ethics into business curricula has ignited intense debates, particularly in India. In Managing India: The Idea of IIMs and Its Changing Contexts, Profs Rajiv Kumar and Vidyanand Jha highlight that the integrity issues among b-school students reflect failures in foundational education. Others, like Prof S.K. Chakraborty, advocate for ethics courses, noting that many parents lack the knowledge to teach about complex issues like corporate wrongdoing.

XLRI pioneered India's first compulsory business ethics course in the 1980s, and while IIMs and other institutions have followed, efforts remain scattered. Besides a few courses and resources, there is a noticeable absence of cohesive nationwide initiatives to embed ethics in MBA programmes. Chakraborty also points out the limited collaboration between Indian businesses and academia on ethical research and consultancy.

Incorporating ethics into MBA programmes through scattered course segments is a start, but it is not enough to fully instil ethical orientation. A culture of ethics must start with administrators and faculty. For example, Duquesne University in Pennsylvania requires standalone ethics courses for both BBA and MBA programmes, and even offers an MBA specialising in business ethics. They involve students and faculty in co-creating a code of ethical conduct, and the dean appoints ethical advocates to monitor student behaviour informally. Students engage with local communities by serving the infirm and the elderly, and they regularly interact with business leaders known for their ethical behaviour. Similarly, the University of Colorado’s MBA programme includes mandatory courses on the social impact of business, day-long professional ethics seminars, social responsibility awards and required participation in ethics-focused case competitions.

Studies show that starting MBA programmes with mandatory courses on ethical principles and business sustainability, then weaving these topics throughout the curriculum, is effective. Parallel to professionalising business education and improving rankings, b-school effectiveness must be evaluated on parameters broader than securing lucrative employment offers for students. Instead of reinforcing self-interest, academics must discuss scepticism and critical thinking. For instance, in statistics classes, professors may highlight how data might be misrepresented. Harvard’s leadership and corporate accountability course places ethics at the core of the MBA experience, extending discussions through case studies on leadership, governance and legal responsibilities. Columbia University takes a dramatic approach with ‘Scenes from the Slippery Slope’, where actors portray scenarios like an investment banker asked to falsify accounts, prompting students to evaluate the ethics of the banker’s decisions. Locally, educators could draw lessons from the Tata Group’s culture. The Tata Code of Conduct, reflecting J.R.D. Tata’s vision, guides the group’s operations―from installing water dispensers in factories to handling crises involving employees’ lives. For over a century, the Tata Group has been India’s leading business house, renowned for its stellar reputation.

As businesses globalise, so do white-collar crimes, prompting calls for enhanced ethics training. Education experts suggest that programmes should include cognitive skills to identify dilemmas, behavioural skills for making ethical choices, and managerial skills for guiding others. Engaging methods like debates and case studies are essential, as moral reasoning thrives on interaction. Given MBA students' packed schedules, educators could introduce one credit or condensed courses and graded seminars. With half of the top 50 US MBA programmes now requiring ethics training, it is clearly a priority. As Amartya Sen wisely noted, a purely economic focus risks making one a “social moron”.

The writer is associate professor of practice (organisational behaviour and human resources) at IIMK.

wayanad-landslide-kalathingal-noufal-july-30-restaurant

Sat Jan 11 16:17:33 IST 2025

MEPPADI

We set out for Wayanad, a picturesque district in Kerala high on the Western Ghats, around evening from Kozhikode. As we traverse the nine hairpin bends up the winding road to Wayanad, the air grows cooler. The steep and verdant slopes are blanketed in mist. As dusk gathers, one can see pinpricks of light from Kozhikode. On a clear day, one can even identify the runway of the airport.

In fact, this road―known as the Thamarassery churam―is the main passage connecting Wayanad and the rest of Kerala. The people in the district depend on it even to transport emergency medical cases to Kozhikode, with Wayanad lacking advanced facilities. The 14km stretch is so narrow that traffic snarls can sometimes clog it for up to six hours.

At night, we reach Vythiri, one of the three sub-districts of Wayanad (along with Mananthavady and Sulthan Bathery). Passing a jumble of adventure parks which have just come up recently and rundown homestays with names like ‘Heaven Villa’ and ‘Paradise Retreat’, we reach our hotel. Early the next morning, we go to ‘After July 30’―the bakery-restaurant in the town of Meppadi owned by Kalathingal Noufal, who lost 11 members of his family, including his wife, three children and parents, in the devastating landslide in Wayanad on that date last year.

At first glance, ‘After July 30’ looks like any other bakery in Kerala―shelves stacked with biscuits and chips; glass cases showcasing carrot and plum cakes; tall tins of sweets and chocolates; a fridge with tubs of ice-cream in varied flavours like avocado, chikku and coconut. In a corner of the airy, well-lit space is the kitchen and right in front, a tea stall where someone brews fresh coffee and tea.

At first glance, Noufal, too, is as nondescript as his restaurant. Clad simply in blue shirt, jeans and sneakers, it is almost like he wishes to merge into the backdrop. He speaks in a low voice, but when he smiles, a pair of dimples come alive. Their appearance dims, though, as he narrates the story of what happened that fateful day.

***

After his marriage, Noufal struggled financially. His work in construction, with some farming on the side, was not enough to make ends meet. Eight years ago, he left for Oman to join his nephew in the catering business. There, he flourished, sent home most of his earnings and settled his debt. He did think of bringing his family to Oman, but decided against it, because life there was hard and the work unpredictable. “If you don’t get an order, you have no work. But you could get an order at midnight and would have to work then,” he says. “Seven of us from Wayanad, [and the districts of] Malappuram and Kasaragod stayed together in a house. Life was hard, but I enjoyed it.”

Eight months before the landslide, he had come home for a two-month stay, but had to extend his time here, because his father got a stroke three days after he reached. “I gave him the best care and made sure he could walk again,” he says. “I did everything for him that I could.” His daughter had just passed her SSLC exams with excellent marks. He enrolled her at the SKMJ higher secondary school in the district headquarters of Kalpetta―one of the best schools in the region―before he went back to Oman four months before the landslide.

On that day, he had been speaking with his family till 12:30am. They said that the rain had decreased and they were going to bed. Within 15 minutes of the landslide, which took place an hour later, a relative called to inform that his village of Mundakkai had been washed away. Immediately, he called his family, but their phones were not ringing. He kept calling them by turns in vain.

“The area where we live in Mundakkai is considered to be very safe,” he says. “People who stayed near the river used to come and seek refuge in the premises of the mosque near our home whenever it rained heavily. Not even in my wildest dream did I think that the house would get washed away. In fact, when it started raining heavily, I told my elder brother and his family to come to our home, since theirs was below ours. In the end, their home got only partially damaged. They might have been able to run to safety if they had stayed there.”

He started becoming scared when someone told him that the mosque, a few metres above their home, had collapsed. On the flight home, he was torn between hope and fear. On the one hand, he had been told that many people in Mundakkai had sought refuge in a nearby resort and he hoped this included his family. On the other, he suspected that since his family had been speaking with him till just before the landslide, they would not have made it to the resort.

When he reached the Kozhikode airport, people were waiting to escort him to Wayanad in a car. Then he knew that something was terribly wrong. Initially, they told him that only his parents had died and the others had been rescued. It is only when he reached Wayanad that he realised the magnitude of his loss. “They found the bodies of my daughter and my elder brother’s daughter on the day that I arrived,” he says. “I only got to see their bodies (his parents were buried before his arrival). The rest of my family was identified through DNA samples. I went back twice to confirm it was my daughter. I did not know what to do. I just sat there the whole night.”

According to Noufal, he is where he is today only because of his friends who brought him back to life. “People who I expected to help never came through,” he says. “It is people who I barely knew who came to my aid and became close friends. They left their families and stayed with me for days on end, taking care of my needs. I am eternally indebted to them.”

Initially, he stayed in a rented space in Meppadi called Apple Tower rooms for more than a month, along with 35 other survivors. “We never discussed our loss,” he says. “We would only talk about old memories and share lighter stories. That’s how we began finding the strength to recover.” His first plan was to return to Oman, but before that, he had to get all the documents which he had lost; he only had his passport with him. It was as he was preparing to leave that a friend’s father suggested he start a business here. When an organisation―Kerala Nadvathul Mujahideen―offered to support him financially, he started seriously considering the possibility.

“If I left this place, that would mean that there is no one to keep alive the memory of my family. Besides, what was the point in going back? I had gone there and worked hard only for my family. If that had been in vain, what was the point in going back now? Who would I be struggling for? In one night, I had lost everything, all that I had been working for. So why should I go back?”

It is not for himself that he opened the restaurant; it is for his wife Sajna, whose dream this was. “I was in catering,” he says. “I know the difficulties involved in running a restaurant. I did not want to do it. But I wanted to fulfil her dream. She used to bake good cakes. She urged me to start the restaurant so that we could all be together; she would do the baking, she said.”

Even today, it is not easy. He stays in a room below ‘After July 30’. He is in the restaurant at 6am and works there the whole day. By the time he wraps up, it is usually 2am. But he likes to keep himself busy, to keep the memories at bay.

So why name the restaurant after the disaster which took his family? “I want to keep the memory of that day alive,” he says. “Two years later, no one will remember the date. I want everyone to come here and be reminded of what happened. Even small children should ask and be told the story of the landslide.”

Today, it is only his faith that keeps him going. “Otherwise, I would have gone insane,” he says. “My firm belief is that my family is happy and is watching me from heaven. They are in a better place.” The only time Noufal breaks down is when he recollects the happy times he would have with his wife and children when he returned from Oman. “My children were my everything,” he says. “I would fulfil even their smallest desires. They obeyed and respected me, but they would also have all sorts of fun and I would support them. I was more their friend than their father.”

***

On our way out, we talk with Noufal’s friend, K.U. Shafeeq, who works as the cashier at the restaurant. He, too, had lost his home in Mundakkai during the landslide, although he and his family were elsewhere then. In fact, everyone working in the restaurant are survivors of the disaster.

“We are childhood friends,” says Shafeeq. “I had another shop in the airport. Noufal would often come there on his way to Oman. He always used to say that we would start something together one day. When this tragedy happened, we urged him to open the restaurant as a way to overcome his grief. After the disaster we all stayed together in Apple Tower rooms. Being together helped us to help him, because we were with him all the time. We never allowed him to go anywhere alone. One of us would always accompany him. Now he is much better. It is only now that we are also relaxed. Earlier, we used to be afraid for him. Noufal was always a quiet person whose priority was his family.”

At the entrance of the restaurant is a large painting of the village of Mundakkai as it used to be, full of lush trees and tiled houses. ‘The Mundakkai of our memory’, goes the caption. “Do you see that roof over there? My home was just behind it,” Noufal tells us. However, he declines to go there with us. “I won’t be able to stand it,” he says, explaining how painful it was to visit the site once after he lost his family. He has never gone back since.

So we set off on our own, along with Sujatha Mahadhevan, a Mahila Congress leader from Meppadi who volunteered at a relief camp for two months after the landslide. As we pass tea and coffee plantations on the 15-minute drive to Mundakkai, Sujatha tells us that no rehabilitation work has yet begun in the wiped-out villages of Mundakkai and Chooralmala. The people there are either living with relatives or in rented houses nearby. “Once the road to these villages is repaired, many homestays may come up, but no one will go to live there again,” she says.

Sujatha recounts how on the day of the landslide, one could see from afar people getting washed away. “All you could do was watch helplessly,” she says. “If they were lucky, they would find a branch to hold on to. Sometimes all you could retrieve of those who died were a toe or a finger. We would take DNA samples of these to be later matched with family members.”

To enter Mundakkai, outsiders must get a pass. The media is allowed inside until 3pm. A 190-foot Bailey bridge―erected by the Indian Army after the landslide to transport machinery and ambulances―leads to the village, now reduced to rubble. The barren land is pervaded by a dark silence. Half-destroyed homes are now deserted structures, without life and laughter. We see remains of the mosque near Noufal’s home, but no trace of the home itself. Atop a small hill, near the mud-splattered wall of a destroyed house, are strewn some household items―a tin bucket, plates, a pillow, a pot―remnants of some family’s everyday life.

Sujatha points out a heavy concrete slab near the house on the hill. She describes how a man had got trapped under the slab. The more his brother tried to lift it, the more unbearable was the pain, until the man begged him to stop. Even as onlookers watched helplessly, the man died a slow and painful death.

***

The landslide hit the villages of Mundakkai, Chooralmala and Punchirimattam in the early hours of July 30, perhaps the worst disaster to strike a place in Kerala. When the bridge connecting Chooralmala to Mundakkai and Attamala collapsed, rescue personnel found it impossible to reach the families trapped there. More than 254 lives were lost, with 44 people still missing. Over 1,500 homes were damaged or destroyed.

Although there were allegations that deforestation and improper land use caused the landslide, Wayanad district collector and District Disaster Management Authority Chairperson Meghashree D.R. denies this. “I have interacted with a lot of experts on this,” she says. “This is definitely not a manmade disaster. In those surroundings, we do not see much of human habitation. [People lead] a very simple lifestyle. There are no high-rise buildings or active quarrying within 5km of that region. There has also been no major tree-felling.”

Talking about plans for rehabilitation, she says, “We did a survey of more than 20 land parcels that could accommodate over 1,000 families. An expert committee analysed their disaster susceptibility and [whether they met the] requirements for a township. These were suggested to the Kerala government, which finalised two locations in Elstone and Nedumbala [estates]. We have also started other activities related to the permanent township. In a month, we will be able to report good progress.”

***

As the sun begins to set, we head to the house of Noufal’s sister E.T. Nousheeba. Her home in Mundakkai, too, had got washed away in the landslide when she, her husband, and three children had a narrow escape. Now, she lives in a rented house near Meppadi. The road here is steep and narrow, so we park the car some way off and walk to the house. Her son Thafseel greets and leads us inside. Over black tea and chips, Nousheeba tells us her story.

“All four of us―my sister, myself, and two brothers―grew up in penury,” she says. “Our parents worked in the tea estates, but did not earn much. Till the fourth standard, we walked 4km one way to reach our school in Attamala. Noufal was the naughtiest and smartest of us all. He was always getting into one scrape or the other. I remember our mother used to come home late from work, after we had all gone to bed. She would wake us up to serve dinner. We would all be fed from one single plate. Only Noufal would not get up and leave when the food got over, because he was still hungry. He would sit there for a long time, hoping to get something more.”

She says that all four siblings and their children are very close. In fact, on the day of the landslide, Noufal’s 13-year-old son Nihal kept insisting that Nousheeba and her family, too, go and stay with them in the ancestral home, where Noufal’s parents, wife, children, and his brother Mansoor and family were put up. Whatever happens, we will face it together, Nihal told his aunt. However, Nousheeba’s husband decided they would not shift. Her son Thafseel remembers visiting the ancestral home earlier that day to collect a jackfruit that Noufal’s parents wanted to send across to Nousheeba. The first sight that met him was of the daughters of Noufal and Mansoor on their knees, earnestly praying. “What are you praying for?” he asked them. “That there won’t be any landslide,” they replied.

Their prayers proved to be in vain when later that night Nousheeba heard a deafening noise. The earth shook and all the glass items in the house shattered. There was an unbearable stench. All of them got up and ran. Everyone in their area sought refuge in a neighbour’s home. Nousheeba kept calling everyone in the ancestral home, but to no avail. They tried to get to town, but the road was blocked. The men took a side road to the ancestral home, but were stunned to discover that the land had been completely flattened and no house stood there anymore. They did not tell Nousheeba, though. All that time, Noufal was constantly calling her. “I didn’t know what to tell him,” she says. “I just told him that they were all safe. But in the end, towards dawn, he cried out to me: ‘It’s all over, isn’t it?’”

The sight that awaited her in the morning was shocking. When she looked down from the hill, there was nothing below. In the ensuing chaos, Nousheeba remembers sitting soaked in the rain, trembling. They were burying bodies all around her. When she saw the body of her mother, she could not hold it together anymore. She broke down.

Noufal came home the next day. He was in a bad state. Nousheeba told herself to stay strong for him. It was heartbreaking to watch him sifting through the bodies searching for his family. “All of us were so close,” says Nousheeba. “Noufal’s daughter Nafla and my daughter were the same age and studied sitting on one bench in every class, until recently when Nafla got admission to the SKMJ higher secondary school, while my daughter did not. Nafla was very bright and got A+ in every subject.”

But what is most touching is a note that Noufal’s son Nihal gave him when he went to Oman last, a screenshot of which Nousheeba shows us. Nihal told him not to open it until he told him to. Noufal forgot about the note in his bag and opened it only on his way home to Wayanad after the landslide. “I love you, uppa,” Nihal had written in curly, colourful lettering. “You are my life.”

By the time we leave, it is dark. Twigs and leaves crunch beneath our feet as we make our way back to the car, the path lit by the light from our phone torches. In a small way, it made me wonder whether Nihal’s note had served as a torch to Noufal―a source of comfort leading him back to life and hope.

mukesh-chandrakar-journalist-murder-in-chhattisgarh

Sat Jan 11 12:49:53 IST 2025

THE BODY OF a 33-year-old journalist, Mukesh Chandrakar, was discovered in a septic tank near a contractor’s home in Bijapur, Bastar, on January 3. Within days, the police arrested the contractor’s brothers and then the contractor himself in the murder case. Chandrakar, who ran the popular YouTube channel Bastar Junction, had frequently reported on corruption, tribal rights and the ongoing Maoist conflict with security forces. He had recently exposed a road construction scam involving the arrested contractor.

Chandrakar was one of seven journalists who had played a pivotal role in securing the release of a captured CRPF Cobra commando, Rakeshwar Singh Manhas, on April 8, 2021. Manhas had been taken hostage after a Maoist ambush that left 22 security troops dead at Jonaguda on the border of Bijapur and Sukma districts of Chhattisgarh on April 3. Many more were wounded in the Maoist attack.

Chandrakar and his elder brother, journalist Yukesh, had ventured deep into Maoist-controlled forests in the area along with Ganesh Mishra, 39, of the local daily Pratah India and four other local journalists ― K. Shankar, Ranjan Das, Chetan Kapewar and Ravi Punje. Government-appointed mediators for the release of the commando accompanied them. Mishra was one of three journalists whom the Maoists had notified about Manhas’s life in captivity. The journalists’ bold initiative and firm contacts within the dense forests led to the commando’s release after the Maoists held a “public trial” of the commando.

Like several of his peers, Chandrakar walked a fine line while reporting from the interiors of Bastar, where Maoists have mounted a decades-long insurgency against state forces. Any misstep could result in life-threatening consequences for the local journalists.

Journalists in Bastar are often seen as being aligned with either the state or the Maoists― sometimes both. There are, however, a handful of local journalists who try to walk the narrow neutral path. Just two months before taking the commando captive, the Maoists had issued death threats against Ganesh Mishra and two other journalists, Shubhranshu Choudhary and Leeladhar Rathi, accusing them of being “agents” of the state and industrial corporations. A strong protest by local journalists forced the Maoist leadership to retract their threats.

“This shows the contradictory and challenging situations we face every day,” Mishra told me soon after the release of the commando.

Chandrakar himself had faced numerous obstacles. In June 2021, after covering protests against a new CRPF camp in Silger, he revealed how he and his colleagues were stopped more than 30 times by the security forces while travelling from Bijapur to Silger. “I even received calls from senior police officers warning me that I was under surveillance,” he told me a few days later. Three protesters had been killed allegedly in police firing in Silger the previous month.

Earlier in 2015, the Maoists had held Chandrakar and his brother at gunpoint at Nambi in Usoor, asking them what they were doing in that area of Maoist influence. “I thought of my sister-in-law and my little nephew and niece while both of us brothers were staring at death,” Chandrakar said. “At times like this, one feels like giving up journalism or getting into yellow journalism to mint money like many do. But every time, passion for journalism wins.” Chandrakar chose to persevere.

The risks for journalists in Bastar are real and deadly. In 2013, the Maoists killed two journalists, Nemichand Jain of Sukma and Sai Reddy of Bijapur, for allegedly being police informers. In 2018, Doordarshan cameraman Achyutanand Sahu was killed in a Maoist ambush in Dantewada.

By 2021, fewer than a dozen local journalists dared to cover the conflict in Bastar. Around 400 others chose safer subjects like tourism and tribal culture to avoid the associated risks of hard reporting on the war between the Maoists and the state.

For many journalists in Bastar, the lack of financial support is as challenging as the physical dangers. Most work on a per-story basis, earning meagre amounts ―sometimes as little as Rs150 to Rs300 per report in 2021. Many local journalists double as marketing or circulation executives for media outlets, earning commissions rather than salaries. Ganesh Mishra said he could continue as a journalist because income from agriculture sustained his family.

It is extremely difficult for a local journalist in Bastar to make a living out of journalism, said the journalist Kamal Shukla, 56, who faced sedition charges over a Facebook post in 2018. “Most local journalists cannot sustain themselves on journalism alone, so they run grocery shops, sell forest produce or work as contractors,” he told me three years ago.

The side hustles, he said, took the edge off their journalism and compelled them to make compromises. He said that, as much as physical threats, financial pressures forced the journalists to avoid writing anything critical of local authorities. “The pressure from the government is often greater than from the Maoists,” he said.

After being slapped with sedition charges, Shukla had to ‘abscond’ for several months to evade arrest. This disrupted his family life and the education of his three children. He runs his daily newspaper Bhumkal Samachar through crowd funding, having no other source of income.

Most journalists in Bastar lack the training and resources to navigate a conflict zone. Former BBC journalist Shubhranshu Choudhary, who founded CG-Net Swara to highlight issues in Chhattisgarh and received Maoist death threats along with Ganesh Mishra and Leeladhar Rathi, said many local journalists were often forced to rely on press releases from the police or the Maoists.

“They have courage and local knowledge, but they need proper training and financial security to become more effective reporters,” Choudhary told me in 2021.

“Earlier it was mostly international media like the BBC, and The New York Times that broke stories from the conflict region. The national media would only follow up. But with the arrival of mobile and internet networks in the interiors of Bastar, local journalists have started making a splash,” he said.

Despite the occupational hazards, journalists play a crucial role in Bastar. Inspector General of Police P.. Sundarraj, who has been working in the area for several years, acknowledged their importance in shaping public perceptions and holding both the state and the Maoists accountable. “The media is essential for establishing peace and order in Bastar,” he told me after the release of Manhas.

“Journalism in the left wing extremism affected areas of Bastar is challenging for reasons such as inaccessibility, tough terrain, fear of Maoists, IED blasts and certain other adverse situations,” he said. “In spite of these challenges, the journalists have brought out the correct perception of the region.

Yet, for many journalists, the road ahead remains fraught with danger, uncertainty and sacrifice. Their commitment to reporting the truth, however, continues to shine a light on one of India’s most challenging regions.

the-impact-of-what-happened-in-2024-will-be-felt-in-2025

Sat Dec 28 12:40:56 IST 2024

THE “FOREIGN HAND” is a familiar trope in Indian politics. As a tumultuous 2024 drew to a close, it was back in circulation. The Parliament’s winter session was in a logjam as the principal opposition, the Congress, and the ruling BJP traded allegations over corporate ties, tinged with accusations of foreign influence. The opposition protested the US market body’s indictment of billionaire Gautam Adani, perceived as close to the current dispensation. The BJP hit back with Congress leaders’ alleged links to George Soros, the Hungarian-American billionaire who it accused of attempting to destabilise the Modi government.

An uneasy truce was brokered as both sides agreed to discuss the 75 years of the Constitution of India. However, that quickly devolved into blame games. The winter session also saw mistrust between the chair and the opposition. In an unprecedented move in India’s parliamentary history, a no-confidence motion was brought against Rajya Sabha chairman, Vice President Jagdeep Dhankhar. The motion was rejected by deputy chairman Harivansh Narayan Singh.

Generally, at the heart of these frequent disruptions is the opposition’s insistence on discussing contentious issues, which does not appeal to the government. During the second tenure of Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government, the BJP paralysed the functioning of the Parliament over the coal and 2G scams. Back then, Arun Jaitley, the leader of the opposition in the Rajya Sabha, defended protests as an “intrinsic part of democracy”, arguing obstruction was sometimes necessary to hold the government accountable.

India’s parliamentary democracy, modelled after the Westminster system, has evolved to suit the country’s political and cultural landscape. Features like bicameral legislature and parliamentary sovereignty have stood the test of time. However, unlike the UK, India did not incorporate a key mechanism that could have addressed the concerns of the non-ruling parties―opposition day. This system, practised in the UK, allows the opposition to set the agenda for debate on specified days―20 days in a parliamentary session―thereby giving them a platform to voice concerns. As India celebrates the Constitution’s 75 years, such a proposal may be worth considering.

2024 ended on a bitter note with regards to administration-opposition relations. Behind the scenes dialogue between the main parties to ease tensions was also missing. Earlier, the veterans on both the sides would hold a dialogue to allow each side a few concessions to let the house function. But with optics-driven politics, parties stick to their positions. There are hardly any pictures where the main leaders of the Congress and the BJP are photographed together in a cordial environment.

The impact of 2024, be it a feeling of distrust in Parliament or the election results―Lok Sabha and assembly polls in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand―is likely to spill over to 2025 when elections are held in Delhi and Bihar, two states where incumbents fancy their chances despite strong opposition.

In Delhi, the electorate has given clear mandates for more than 25 years, from Sheila Dikshit―making her the longest serving woman chief minister―to Arvind Kejriwal. The Aam Aadmi party national convener, who spent over five months in Tihar Jail on charges related to the alleged Delhi liquor scam, could be facing his toughest battle so far. The BJP has gone all out to take sheen off his anti-corruption crusade, the basis of his political identity. Photos of opulent fixtures at his previous official residence have been shown to dent his aam aadmi (common man) credentials. Assuming power after Dikshit’s fondly remembered 15-year tenure, Kejriwal crafted a pro-poor stance. He focused on slums and unauthorised colonies; on communities that lived on the fringes of a national capital replete with flyovers and ultra-luxury markets. This translated to mohalla clinics, revamped government schools, free electricity and water, and free travel for women.

However, despite the AAP retaining Delhi twice, the BJP held all seven Lok Sabha seats. This brought the AAP and the Congress together for the general elections, but, after the alliance failed (the BJP won all seven seats again), the allies are contesting separately in the assembly polls. The BJP sees itself in a fighting position in more than 50 of 70 seats; it won eight last time. The AAP and the Congress have already declared candidates for a majority of seats. Kejriwal is being challenged on home turf, New Delhi constituency, by his former associate and Congress candidate Sandeep Dikshit, son of Sheila Dikshit, and the BJP’s Parvesh Verma, son of former Delhi chief minister Sahib Singh Verma.

All parties in Delhi are drawing inspiration from the trends of 2024 assembly polls, during which cash sops for women proved to be game changers. The AAP promised Rs2,100 to women, raising it from the current Rs1,000. The BJP and the Congress will be forced to at least match the offer.

What may work in Kejriwal’s favour in Delhi is that the BJP and the Congress are not likely to project anyone as chief ministerial candidate. The last three assembly polls in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana have shown that whichever party provided a clear signal to the voters on the leadership got the mandate.

After the February polls in Delhi, the action will shift to Bihar, where polls are due in October-November. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has carved out his own vote bank of mahadalits and women with enabling social welfare schemes. Days before Nitish, Bihar’s longest-serving chief minister, was to embark on his Mahila Samvad Yatra to engage with women voters, leader of the opposition Tejashwi Yadav came out with an attractive offer―Rs2,500 per month. This is the same amount that Chief Minister Hemant Soren offered in neighbouring Jharkhand to return to power. Nitish was forced to cancel his yatra, indicating what would have dominated the Janata Dal (United) national president’s samvad (dialogue) with the women.

Unlike in other states, the leadership on both sides is clear. Nitish will lead the National Democratic Alliance’s charge in the state, and Yadav, the Rashtriya Janata Dal chairman, is his challenger. In the last elections, the RJD had emerged as the single-largest party. The BJP had more seats than the JD(U), but had offered the chief minister’s post to Nitish. Maharashtra will play on the minds of allies if the BJP again gets more seats. But, Nitish is not shy about changing sides if he feels ignored.

What sets Bihar apart from other states is its highly polarised caste-based politics. The NDA has the caste arithmetic with it, but will it again be able to get the formula right? The RJD lays claim over the Yadav and Muslim vote banks, while other parties, like the Congress, are expected to get the upper caste votes. Bihar is the state in which the issue of employment is most important. It can sway polls. The state has been marred by student protests on various issues.

Both Bihar and Delhi polls are important for the two national alliances, the NDA and INDIA.

After a noteworthy performance in Lok Sabha polls, INDIA floundered in Haryana and Maharashtra, where they were favourites, indicating that the electorate cannot be taken for granted. This has led to questions over the Congress leading the alliance and many constituents indicating West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee could be the leader. As a result, the Congress will be under pressure to deliver, so that it can hold on to its leadership role.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to focus on the BJP’s ideological agenda. One Nation, One Election bills were introduced in the Lok Sabha towards the fag end of the winter session, thus indicating that 2025 will witness key legislations. The polarising debate over the Waqf Bill notwithstanding, the government will push for its passing and allies like the Telugu Desam Party, the JD(U) and the Lok Jankshakti Party (Ram Vilas) have shown their support.

2025 will get framed as an ideological battle between the opposition, led by a reinvigorated Rahul Gandhi, with Priyanka, too, proving to be an effective speaker for the opposition, and the ruling alliance. Modi is expected to push forward with the government’s cultural agenda as the world’s biggest religious congregation, the kumbh mela, begins in Prayagraj in January-February, coinciding with one year of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. How the battle for reclaiming other contentious sites pans out in the BJP-ruled states will depend on the Supreme Court’s decision on the 1991 Places of Worship Act.

2025 will witness centenary celebrations of two opposing political ideologies which have defined the cultural and academic atmosphere of India since independence. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh will complete 100 years in October and the Communist Party of India will hit the century mark in December; the CPI(M) had celebrated 100 years in 2020, but the CPI considers 1925 to be its starting point.

The communist movement may have declined, being confined to Kerala where the left alliance is in power, but the left ideology retained its hold on academia, students and other movements. Politically, while the CPI may have been forced to the sidelines (it has two Lok Sabha MPs), the RSS has been going strong pervading all the political, cultural and administrative sectors of our polity.

The RSS has risen to great heights after the Modi government came to power. The prime minister has made sure that its vision is reflected in the government’s outlook and decision making. RSS volunteers have paid him back by actively supporting the BJP’s campaign in elections, while building an enabling sentiment centred on the Hindu thought.

2025 will mark RSS initiating its year-long celebration centred on its five programmes for “social transformation”: samajik samarasata (social harmony), kutumb prabodhan (family preservation), paryavaran (environmental awareness), the insistence on swa (selfhood) and the duties of citizens.

The challenges for India emanate from its volatile neighbourhood and the changing global geopolitics. US president-elect Donald Trump may be friendly with Modi, but his policies may keep all countries on their toes. Similarly, the Indian economy may have performed better than its global counterparts, but the headwinds require Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman to be agile. Her eighth budget―third highest for a finance minister, equalling Pranab Mukherjee’s record; P. Chidamabaram presented nine budgets, while Morarji Desai presented 10―on February 1 will be keenly awaited.

the-porters-of-siachen-are-the-unsung-heroes-who-put-their-lives-on-the-line-to-help-the-army-defend-the-worlds-highest-battlefield

Sat Dec 21 16:17:58 IST 2024

SIACHEN

In the treacherous heights of the Siachen glacier―a vast, icy expanse where temperatures plummet below minus 40 degrees Celsius and avalanches loom with deadly intent―unsung heroes toil with unwavering courage. These porters, hailing from scenic villages in the Nubra valley, such as Kubed, Thang, Hunder, Turtuk, Tyakshi, Chalunka and Diskit, play a crucial role for the Army. Serving as guides, scouts and logistics managers, they venture into areas inaccessible to soldiers, fixing ropes for them to climb, acting as frontline responders to medical emergencies and providing crucial assistance in rescue and evacuations. Their knowledge of the terrain and experience with the harsh conditions make them indispensable in Siachen, located 22,000 feet above sea level. But their bravery and sacrifices often go unnoticed.

The Army moved into Siachen in 1984 under Operation Meghdoot to pre-empt Pakistan capturing the strategically significant area. Overcoming resistance from Pakistan, it secured critical peaks and passes such as Sia La (over 18,000ft), Bilafond La (over 17,000ft), and Gyong La (over 18,000ft), along with the commanding heights of the Saltoro Ridge on the southwest of the Siachen glacier. This allowed India to prevent intrusions not only by Pakistan, but also by China. Since then, the porters have been integral to the survival of soldiers at Siachen.

Lobzang Stobdan, a resident of Kubed, started working as a porter during Operation Meghdoot. “I was a teenager then. A porter was paid Rs1,500 a month,” he recalled. “That was a significant amount in those days and many men enlisted for the job.” He participated in reconnaissance and obstacle clearance. Acknowledging his accounting skills, the Army entrusted him with keeping records of porters. Following that, he coordinated with the Army to provide porters as needed. “The threat is extremely high,” he said. “To date, 26 local porters and five Nepali porters have lost their lives.” Getting caught in an avalanche or a crevasse causes hypothermia and hypoxia. Hypothermia impairs movement and cognition, leading to frostbite, cardiac arrest and coma, while hypoxia damages the central nervous system and organs. Falling into a crevasse also causes fractures and permanent incapacitation.

Stobdan’s role as a record keeper saved him from such hazards, but porters like Stanzin Padma, 35, have narrowly escaped death more than once. He took up the job in 2008 and received the Jeevan Raksha Pathak in 2014 for his services and exceptional bravery.

On January 12, 2012, during his posting at Sia La, Padma responded to a call from a post with dwindling food stocks. On his return, he lost his way because of poor visibility. His snow scooter got stuck in the snow, forcing him to walk. He plunged into a crevasse and, hours later, regained consciousness, finding himself trapped in a deep, icy chasm. “I had my wireless set with me and called for help,” he said. “I spent the night fighting sleep, hoping to be rescued in the morning.” At dawn, rescuers found his snow scooter, located him by his calls, and pulled him out with frostbite on his fingers. Luckily, he avoided amputation.

In December that year, his colleague Nima Norboo fell into a 200-foot-deep crevasse. After initial rescue efforts failed, Padma persuaded the commanding officer to arrange for a helicopter. He slid down into the crevasse with a rope from the helicopter, and saved him. “He survived, but lost an arm and both legs below the knee,” said Stobdan. “The Army compensated him and arranged for his livelihood.”

Padma’s most heroic moment was in May 2013 as part of a team that saved two soldiers buried under an avalanche at Tiger LP (21,500ft). They had to temporarily stop the rescue work because of another avalanche. They returned the following day and rescued the survivors. Unhappy with the remuneration and the lack of growth prospects, he quit working in Siachen and became a private contractor.

Rigzin Wangchuk, 41, from Chamshain, who has been working in Siachen for decades, recounts his own harrowing experience when he was buried under tonnes of snow while evacuating a sick soldier at Kaziranga Post, located at 19,000ft. Fellow porters managed to dig through the snow and save him from a painful death.

“When soldiers or porters move on the glacier, they tie themselves to each other using a long rope, leaving eight to ten feet of slack between each person,” he said. “That pinpointed the spot where I was buried.” He said the incident left him shaken. “I was gasping for breath under mounds of snow, thinking my end had come,” he said. “Fortunately, my colleagues retrieved me in time.”

He had a tryst with fate again in February 2016 when an avalanche struck the Sonam Post (19,500ft). Ten soldiers were in their sleeping bags when the tragedy struck. The recovery team at Kaziranga Post, where Wangchuk was on duty, set out for rescue, but what they saw left them shocked. “The post lay buried under an enormous chunk of snow several hundred feet long and wide that had cracked off from the mountain,” Wangchuk said. “The Army and the Air Force airlifted ice cutters, thermal imagers and doppler radars, part by part, to the site. After six days, one soldier, Lance Naik Hanumanthappa Koppad, was found alive, but was severely injured.” He was airlifted to the Army Hospital in Delhi, where he slipped into a coma, and died of multi-organ failure. “The news of his death saddened us a lot,” he said. “He had survived the worst, he deserved to live.”

Rinchan Namgyal, 41, who began working as a porter two decades ago, said weather was the main adversary at Siachen, especially in winter when the threat of avalanches was high. “Once we are deployed at the glacier, we remain there for three months,” he said. “We get the same clothing, shoes, food and medical support that the Army gets, but danger always lurks.”

Surviving a few near-death accidents seems to have toughened his resolve. “The most terrifying accident was when I fell into a crevasse 35-metres deep while riding a snow scooter,’’ he said. “I thought it was the end. But porters and soldiers pulled me out.”

Sonam Norbu, 25, opted to work as a porter after his efforts to find a job, including attempts to join the Army, were unsuccessful. He was listed as a porter for Siachen during Covid. He said he often wondered what life would be like up there, being cut off from the outside world for months. “After I signed up, I realised that Siachen was a far more dangerous place than I had imagined,” he said. “Death lurks everywhere, under the feet and over the head.” He said that except for taking the oath, porters did everything the Army did and remained deployed like the soldiers for three months. “I know I can lose my life, but it is more than a source of livelihood; it is an honour reserved for a few,” he said. “It is a rare chance to serve the country.”

He recalled an incident involving an Army officer who slipped into a crevasse. “The officer suddenly fell into a 45-metre crevasse,” he said. “One of the porters got him out within an hour. The officer suffered some fractures, but survived,” he said. “We carried him to the base camp, and from there, he was taken on a helicopter for further treatment.”

Stobdan said the soldiers were provided with world-class facilities. “This has reduced cases of medical emergencies to negligible numbers, but the weather continues to be a threat.” He said that before taking up their duties, porters, like soldiers, undergo acclimatisation at the Siachen base camp.

“Then they proceed with 20kg of load to the Kumar Post, a logistical base situated 15,600ft from the base camp. From Kumar, they ascend to altitudes between 21,000ft and 22,000ft. Travelling from one post to another takes three to four hours, with one person responsible for opening up the route. Once we deliver supplies to a post, we have to return to our post the same day. We eat and sleep at the post,” Padma said.

According to Stobdan, porters are employed for 89 days as casual paid labourers. A 90-day tenure without break entitles them to permanent employment and better pay. Porters are paid according to the grade of the post they are assigned to, with the grade determined by altitude and associated risks. “Those serving at higher altitudes receive Rs857 a day, while those at lower altitudes get Rs697,” he said. “Since 2017, there has been no pay hike.”

In contrast, labourers working with civilian companies in Ladakh earn Rs1,000 and Rs650 at higher and lower altitudes, respectively. The demand for better pay is shared by all porters. They rely on Stobdan to claim compensation after accidents. Pointing to the list with the names of porters who lost their lives, Stobdan said 19 individuals received only Rs16,320 each as compensation. All porters are insured for Rs1 lakh in case of death by avalanches, falling into crevasses, or enemy fire.”

After the amendment to the Workmen’s Compensation Act of 1923, which determines compensation for the families of porters in case of injury or death, the families of two porters received Rs16 lakh each as compensation,” said Stobdan.

Tsering Sandup, a BJP councillor from Panamik, has been working to address the concerns of Siachen porters. “They have been supporting the Army for generations,” he said, pointing out that only the Army could help the porters. “If I ask the lieutenant governor of Ladakh to help them, his office will seek a report from the Army,” said Sandup.

He said the Central government realised the importance of the porters during the 1999 Kargil War, and the compensation increased. “That was good money then, but not 25 years later. That is why many porters now prefer to work with civilian firms and the General Reserve Engineering Force (GREF), the parent cadre of the Border Roads Organisation (BRO). There is no risk involved with GREF, and a porter returns home the same day,” he said.

For many who could not make it to the Army, the job of a porter is all about living that dream. The ceremonial honours the deceased porters receive―with flag-draped coffins and gun salutes―inspire others. “Siachen porters cannot be compared with those who work with civilian firms,” said Sandup. “They should be protected under better insurance so that their families do not suffer in case they lose their life while on duty.”

the-suicide-of-atul-subhash-is-symptomatic-of-deeper-problems-of-the-law-and-its-implementation

Sat Dec 21 15:04:35 IST 2024

In a dim courtroom with forsaken walls, surrounded by lawyers, petitioners and spectators who have no business being present for the case being heard, a family court judge in Lucknow tells the 27-year-old woman before him: “If the husband wants to keep you, why don’t you go to him?” The woman’s choice, her petition alleging physical abuse, and the three years she has spent attending every hearing, dissolve into nothingness. Later, she tells this correspondent that the judge’s remark made her feel like a piece of furniture.

The case of Atul Subhash, the Bengaluru techie who ended his life alleging harassment by his wife and her family, has stirred a frenzied debate on how laws to protect women are being misused. But as Nausheen Yousuf, a Mumbai-based lawyer with 17 years of matrimonial litigation experience, says, “To misuse the law, you first need to know it. How many women have that privilege?” And, by extension, how many men?

In Subhash’s case, we know one side of the story. We know it because of a well-made, viral video. But it cannot be the only side. Just as Subhash’s cannot be a wholly false narrative.

According to Bhupendra Singh Bisht, a lawyer, “Section 498-A of the Indian Penal Code (commonly known as the anti-dowry law) can be a tool to wreak vengeance.” He explains with the example of a woman who abandoned her marital home after some differences arose. When many attempts by the husband― Bisht’s client―to reconcile failed, he filed for divorce in the family court of Dehradun. The court sent summons to the woman to appear and explore the possibility of mediation. When this bore no result, a warrant was sent. She, in turn, lodged police complaints under sections 498-A, 323 (intentionally causing bodily harm), 504 (disruption of public peace through intentional insults or provocations), 506 (criminal intimidation), and sections 3 and 4 (taking and demanding dowry) of the Dowry Prohibition Act. These complaints were later withdrawn when the husband agreed to pay alimony.

Swarup Sarkar, the founder of the Save Indian Family Foundation (SIFF), an NGO established in 2005 to protect men unfairly targeted by dowry prohibition laws, says the wording of laws such as these, and the Domestic Violence Act (2005), are inherently unfair to men. The DV Act was intended as a kind of middle ground. For example, it grants a woman (and her children) the right to reside in the marital home while approaching the courts. Thus, it offers women both the safety of a home and the means to break free from an abusive relationship they would otherwise remain trapped in if they had no place or no one to turn to.

“The law assumes that only women can face abuse. While we agree that, biologically, more women might experience physical abuse, it is unfair to suggest that men do not face verbal, sexual and emotional abuse. Similarly, the dowry laws give women the right to name any relative of the husband as complicit in the crime. Our humble submission is simply this: men can also be at the receiving end,” says Sarkar.

The SIFF operates a helpline with a common number that works across the country. Since 2014, it has received an average of 112 calls per day. There was a dip in the number of calls after 2014, the year when the Supreme Court (in Arunesh Kumar versus State of Bihar and others) ruled that police officers must not automatically arrest the accused when a case under Section 498-A of the IPC is registered. Instead, they must satisfy themselves about the necessity for such an arrest.

Human relationships are a vast grey area. Syed Mohammed Haider Rizvi, an advocate specialising in family law, says the rising number of cases in family courts, including maintenance, child custody and dowry harassment, often stems from “clashes of ego between estranged couples, which can be exacerbated by advocates who fail to recognise their broader responsibility as social reformers”.

He says there is a need to find solutions that prioritise the well-being of all individuals involved, especially children. “The goal should be to create a more compassionate and effective family court system that promotes reconciliation, understanding and the best interests of all parties involved.”

Yousuf, who has experience practising at various levels from trial courts to the High Court, says, “There is a need for systemic changes at the execution level rather than at the level of the law.” She highlighted two well-known drawbacks of the system: too few judges, and lawyers who deliberately prolong cases. She cited the example of a client who had been waiting for eight years to get a divorce and was unable to find employment because her estranged husband smeared her name at workplaces while paying no alimony.

Yousuf also pointed out that, often under the pretext that a woman was misusing the law, lawyers would extort money from their male clients. For instance, they might suggest anticipatory bail by stirring up fear that the woman might file a case under Section 498-A.

Making posts in the lower judiciary more attractive is one remedy that is discussed often. But there are other solutions as well. If, for example, the presiding judge in Subhash’s case had demanded money for deciding the petition, there should have been a complaint to a higher judge. The corollary is that Subhash should have been aware of that option and that his lawyer should have taken that route.

Back in that dim courtroom in Lucknow, the woman who squirmed at the judge’s suggestion endured another decade of agonising waiting to get her divorce. If Subhash’s case was a tragedy of death, hers was a tragedy of the living.

brutality-of-the-assad-regime-mujtahid-hospital-in-damascus

Sat Dec 21 14:52:20 IST 2024

DAMASCUS

Head turned towards the sunlight, arm dangling off the edge of the bed, Mohammed lies in a shared ward in Damascus’s Mujtahid Hospital. It seems he is looking at me, but his eyes are distant.

Bruises and dried blood line the side of his face. On his abdomen is a large white dressing, covering what I imagine to be an even bigger injury.

He speaks through persistent coughing. “Praise be to God,” he says, in a low, deep voice.

Mohammed is one of thousands who escaped ousted Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s infamous Saidnaya prison. When rebel forces, headed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), overthrew Assad in a lightning offensive, prisoners, who once did not dare to dream about stepping out of their vicious daily routine, poured out of the large iron gates.

The prison consists of multiple large, white buildings, located on the top of a hill in the outskirts of Damascus. The prison consisted of a “white” zone overground, and a “red” zone underground, which apparently held the most severely abused prisoners. Conditions in the prison were depraved―in some rooms, there were massive piles of clothes which once belonged to the prisoners. In another room, I found what rebels said was a “human iron press”. There were many bloodied nooses, and in a room with acrid smell, the rebels said, bodies were disposed of using acid.

Mohammed claims he was a former member of the army, and was sentenced to five years for owning a weapon. He served three years.

“This is the best feeling,” he tells me, talking about his escape. But his eyes don’t light up, and his face remains deadpan.

The relative peace in the room is in stark contrast to the chaos outside, where relatives crowd the hospital corridors, holding up old photos of their relatives to every staff member they can find. In a ward, I saw a pool of dried blood on a bare stretcher, and the floors were grimy.

A lady was also searching for her son, and I followed her down the various paths that different staff members pointed us to. Finally we reached a door which had the Arabic word “barraad” scrawled in red marker―“refrigerator”.

I always imagined morgues to hold a heavy silence―I associated the place not with the chaos that death is sometimes preceded by, but the acceptance that inevitably follows. Mujtahid Hospital’s morgue shattered the sanctity of death. There were bodies strewn across the floor and on the tables. The skin was often blackened and the limbs taut in rigor mortis.

In one corner of the room, there was a group of doctors conducting an autopsy. In another corner, there were people walking in, lifting the cover of body bags to check for their missing relatives.

Emotions sometimes ran high.

“Nine people―my brother, husband, brothers-in-law, uncles, cousins―not one of them are here. Where are they, where?” demands Wusayna, her voice bordering a scream. Angry tears are pooling in her eyes.

“The prisons are empty!” someone interjects loudly from behind.

Wusayna says that both her brother and husband were taken away by the regime in 2013. She was one of so many others I spoke to. Some of them were holding up photos of those they were looking for. Others were holding up their phone, asking the doctors if they recognised the photo of a corpse labelled with a number.

Mohammed Shaab had one of those photos. When he received the picture of the labelled body, he was 80 per cent certain that it was his brother―an ex-army man who had been taken away about a decade ago for joining the rebel forces. He came to Mujtahid Hospital, then realised that he had misidentified the body.

Shaab told me that, in 2015, he received information about a government-issued death certificate for his brother, yet heard accounts that his brother was in Saidnaya. He told me that the day before, his friend Abu Shaab, for whom the government had issued a death certificate in 2012, had escaped Saidnaya.

Shaab recounted what his friend told him about the prison.

“On the advice of doctors, the guards gave them one olive and some borghul just to keep them alive,” he said. “The prisoners wanted to die, but they wouldn’t let them.”

Traversing those rooms, I was surrounded by those who were either holding out hope about finding someone they loved, or still coming to terms with finding a tortured, mutilated version of what remained of them. To me, there was something tender about these feelings―hope, love, grief. The harsh proximity to such a brutal death was paradoxical to the softness of those feelings.

Taking us around was Abdulila, a 24-year-old medical student from Raqqa. He was soft-spoken, yet conducted himself with authority―giving directions to hassled relatives who were searching for their missing ones, and occasionally stopping to assist with medical work. One of the first things I noticed about him was the drops of blood on the sleeve of the lab coat he was wearing.

Following him through a corridor, I told him I had not ever seen anything like what we were witnessing.

“No one has seen things like this,” he replied, disbelief in his voice.

Abdulila told me that there was a massive shortage of medicines and also doctors, as many of them had fled fearing a war.

“We are just students, trying to volunteer in this situation. There is death and illness everywhere, it’s tragic,” he tells me, standing in front of the morgue’s refrigerators.

I asked him how he was feeling. He paused.

“We are all so mentally tired. We were not expecting this magnitude of brutality―not even Hitler did things like this,” he says, his voice rising a little bit in agitation.

“How do you do these things and then come back and live a normal life with people? We didn’t know the magnitude of what he [Assad] was doing―it’s unbelievable,” he continued.

Later, we went to another ward of the hospital, where there were people with firearm-related injuries. Doctors told me that civilians had found weapons abandoned inside buildings, and had tried to use them. A boy I saw had his fingers blown off―his fist was covered in blood, and you could see bare bone poking out.

“It’s chaos,” said the doctors.

A few days later, I saw a large crowd outside the hospital. I went closer, only to find photos of corpses at the hospital pasted on the wall, so that people could identify them.

In the process of writing this piece, I struggled to put into words the magnitude of the horror I witnessed. The dehumanisation of the dead, when they were still alive. The feeling of a mother who might walk in and discover the body of her son, barely recognisable in a body bag. The internal conflict of a wife who does not know what she would prefer to find―a dead husband, or another dead end. The son surrounded by corpses, wondering what his father’s last moments were like. Every day, there are shocking reports of atrocities like bodies dumped on roadsides and innumerable mass graves.

While talking to me about his brother, the only emotion I could pinpoint in Shaab was that of distress.

“When I received that photo, I had hope that it was my brother, so that we could give him a proper funeral,” he told me.

Now, like many others, he has been hurled back into the vast sea of confusion and conflicting accounts. Victims of the regime might be navigating its waters for a long time to come.