US President Donald Trump is expected to announce, later this week, that Washington will recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Though it is not evident that the US embassy will be shifted there formally. The likelihood of such an announcement has angered the Arab world in general. Though, it will be received warmly in Israel – which is maintaining prudent diplomatic silence on the matter. France is the latest nation to caution the US against making a hasty announcement that would jeopardize the already fragile Israel-Palestine peace process.
For President Trump, this announcement would be part of a campaign pledge to his domestic support-base and the powerful pro-Israeli lobby in the USA. This announcement would also be a major departure from current US policy on the contentious issue.
The US Congress had passed an act in 1995 mandating that the US embassy be moved to Jerusalem. The then US President Bill Clinton had used executive authority to delay this move. Every six months, the US President has to sign a waiver to delay the move and maintain the status quo, wherein Tel Aviv is home to all embassies. This waiver was to be signed by December 4, failing which it would expire and the White House has allowed this to lapse. Hence, technically as per US law, the US embassy will have to be re-located to Jerusalem.
However Arab leaders led by the King of Jordan and the Palestine leadership have denounced this possible announcement and warned of dire consequences in the extended Muslim world. The city of Jerusalem has an ancient past that goes back to the B.C period and is revered by all the three major Semitic religions — Judaism, Christianity and Islam. Palestine claims east Jerusalem as its capital, though Israel has been in illegal occupation of that part of the city since the 1967 war.
Most capitals have chosen Tel Aviv as the location for their embassies. Tel Aviv is a commercial capital of Israel. Given the complex and tangled nature of the Palestine issue and Israel’s illegal occupation of east Jerusalem since the 1967 war, the symbolism of the capital has acquired a political sensitivity of acute nature. Among the world’s better-known historical cities, Jerusalem has a distinctive chronology as far as the Semitic faiths are concerned. Chronologically Judaism is the oldest religion that accords the city a special status followed by Christianity and in the 7th century, by Islam.
In the modern political framework, both Israel and Palestine claim the city but the international community, by and large has encouraged a final political settlement between Israel and Palestine, after which the status of Jerusalem could be determined.
The Trump penchant to rock the boat and make a formal announcement will lead to considerable disappointment and anger in the Arab/Muslim world and even Saudi Arabia, a staunch US ally has voiced its concern. Some constituencies in Palestine and Jordan have warned of violence and radical groups using this announcement to embark upon acts of terror against the USA. Politically, given the global consensus on the Palestine issue – that Israel is in illegal occupation of East Jerusalem – a US determination that its embassy will be re-located to the contested holy city will alter Washington’s position as the only effective ‘honest-broker’ in the regional peace process.
India has been a supporter of the Palestine cause going back to the khilafat movement and Mahatma Gandhi in the early part of the last century. In the post 1947 period, Delhi was an active supporter of the Palestine cause and on occasion was seen as being even more committed to the ‘cause’ than many Arab nations. Israel was kept below the diplomatic radar by India and this was despite the fact that the Jewish community found shelter in modern Kerala almost two thousand years ago.
Post the Cold War, the then PM Narasimha Rao took the decision to establish diplomatic relations with Israel formally and a more balanced approach to the west Asian region was evolved. While Delhi had in the past supported the Palestine position on East Jerusalem as their capital. PM Narendra Modi in his July 2017 visit has de-linked the contentious 'Jerusalem as capital' issue from the Indian position.
When asked about the Indian stance on the capital by an Israeli newspaper during his July visit, Modi clarified : “India supports all efforts to find an acceptable solution to all the pending issues, including Jerusalem. I assume the question refers to our embassy in Tel Aviv. We will take a decision on that after both sides have come to an agreement on Jerusalem.”
That agreement appears elusive as of now and if President Trump, who has his plate full with North Korea, Yemen and a potential impeachment exigency still decides to go ahead and make the announcement, an already troubled region would become even more discordant. And the US hand on the tiller would not be as acceptable as it was in the past.
Unhappy augury on the eve of Christmas. Jerusalem alas will be sullen.
Bhaskar is director, Society for Policy Studies, New Delhi
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the publication
