As Donald Trump completes one year in office, six quick points about the most unexpected presidency in the history of the United States.
1. No impeachment, no 25th
With Trump in the White House, a legislative coup by impeachment or a palace coup by invoking the 25th amendment of the constitution are always topics of discussion. However, with both houses of the Congress controlled by the Republicans, impeachment seems an unlikely scenario, at least till the midterm polls in November. Even if the senate and the house flip in the midterms, it requires two-thirds majority in the senate for impeachment, making it virtually impossible. For impeachment, something dramatic needs to happen, like Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller finding clinching evidence against Trump for colluding with Russia during the presidential elections. Questions about invoking the 25th amendment by the cabinet to declare the president incapable and replacing him with the vice president, also seems out of place now, especially after the White House physician has given Trump an A plus in his annual medical evaluation.
2. Foreign policy shockers
Trump stuck to his campaign promise and withdrew from the Trans Pacific Partnership and the Paris climate deal. He annoyed traditional allies in Western Europe by calling NATO obsolete and asking them to pay for their defence requirements. On the North Korean crisis, which needs delicate diplomatic handling, Trump has been shooting his mouth off, much to the horror of the rest of the world. He has, however, been careful in his dealings with China and Russia, and has displayed a great deal of appreciation for Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. Ties with India has remained largely positive despite the differences on the immigration front.
In the Middle East, Trump is reversing his predecessor Barack Obama's policies. America's ties with Israel had hit an all-time low under Obama, as he took the lead in mending ties with Iran, even offering the country a nuclear deal as a way to end sanctions. While Trump has not pulled out of the deal, there is no guarantee that he will not do so and ties with Tehran remains increasingly frosty. Trump has reinstated the privileged position enjoyed by Israel, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner is overseeing the Arab-Israeli peace efforts. More importantly, Trump recognised Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, marking a decisive break from the past. Trump and his family enjoys cordial ties with Saudi Arabia and there are reports about a Saudi-Israel understanding against Iran. Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman shares cordial ties with Kushner.
3. No longer a nation for immigrants
Trump became president by promising to act tough on the immigration front. One of his first executive actions as president was to restrict the entry of citizens of certain Muslim majority nations to the US. Legal battle on the issue is ongoing. He has ended the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), a programme initiated by Obama to protect hundreds of thousands of immigrants who were brought to the US as children. It was during a meeting with a bipartisan team of senators on negotiating a deal on DACA that Trump called African and Caribbean countries “shitholes”, resulting in global outrage against the president. On the day Trump completed one year as president, the US government was hit by a shutdown after the Congress failed to resolve a deadlock on a spending bill over disagreement on immigration issues.
Trump has targeted work visas like H-1B and L-1, proposing to make them further restrictive and expensive. He has also expressed his opposition to family based immigration and plans to overturn the system by which the US government issues green cards. The proposal to erect a border fence with Mexico is still alive and Trump stands by his crazy hope that Mexico will pay for it.
4. Economy, the lone bright spot
Trump has been lucky as he took over at a time when the US economy started rebounding. During Trump's first year in office, GDP recorded a 3 per cent growth, stock markets performed strongly, business spending grew, manufacturing jobs gained and unemployment rate dropped sharply. As many as 2.06 million jobs were created last year, although it is lower than Obama's last year.
While Trump walked away from the Trans Pacific Partnership, he left intact the North American Free Trade Agreement and did not impose across-the-board tariffs on imports from China and Mexico as he threatened during the election campaign. Meanwhile, he has reined in regulatory bodies, much to the delight of business owners. Budget deficit, however, continues to grow, especially with the new tax plan. Trade deficit with countries like China and Mexico are also growing.
5. Sweeping tax bill
The biggest legislative achievement for Trump and the Republican Party in the president's first year has been the tax overhaul bill. The bill is likely to cost $1.46 trillion in the form of tax cuts spread over a decade. It reduced corporate tax rate to 21 per cent from 35 per cent and brought down lower top rate for individuals from 39.6 per cent to 37 per cent. It has increased standard deduction and expanded child tax credit. Moreover, it signalled the end of Obamacare—the pet insurance programme piloted by former president Barack Obama—by eliminating its crucial provision that every American should buy a health insurance or else pay a penalty. Without the individual mandate, Obamacare is unlikely to survive.
6. The president's own party
Trump was the classic insurgent who decimated establishment candidates to win the Republican nomination for president. The establishment has always been against him and never missed an opportunity to tell the world how it felt about him. A year in office later, however, Trump owns the Republican Party. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Paul Ryan are solidly behind him. His opponents in the party, like Senators Bob Corker and John MacCain, are ending their legislative careers. Even Steve Bannon, the man who ran Trump's presidential campaign and was one of his top most advisers, is out in political cold storage after a tiff with the president. Trump has played his cards right. He has stuck to the hard core Republican agenda on a number of issues from tax cuts to conservative judicial appointments to deregulatory policies, bringing him close to the establishment. Once fierce critics, like Senator Lindsay Graham and NPR editor Rich Lowry, have nothing but praise for him now.
