To my mind, it is becoming inevitable that Vendémiaire is approaching in Pakistan. Let me explain.
On 13 Vendémiaire, that is, October 5, 1795, a 'whiff of grapeshot' from General Napoleon Bonaparte's troops dispersed the 30,000-strong Paris mob, which was marching on the National Convention.
A similar situation seems to be developing in Pakistan.
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who came to power in August 2018 - and was ousted by a vote of no-confidence in April this year - seems desperate to again become the PM. He has been holding rally after rally, and the recent byelections in Pakistan, in which his party, the PTI, won resoundingly, makes it look very likely that if national elections are held now, his party will sweep the polls and he will again come back to power.
Hence, he has been demanding early elections, and putting all kinds of pressure, including holding massive demonstrations.
But, for that very reason, the ruling PDM coalition - consisting of mainly the two other large parties, the PMLN and the PPP - are refusing to hold early elections, and are determined to postpone elections until the five-year term of the present National Assembly expires in August next year (elections must be held under the Pakistan Constitution within 60 days thereafter, that is, by October 2023).
A large section of the Pakistani public seems to believe in Imran Khan's claim that external forces (read, America) ousted his government, and, by a conspiracy, a foreign-backed government was imposed in Pakistan. They also regard Imran Khan to be honest, while the leaders of the PMLN and PPP are perceived as corrupt. Consequently, huge crowds often gather in Imran Khan's rallies, and he probably has started to believe that pressure from these crowds will force the present government to relent and announce early elections. So, this pressure will be increased in the coming days.
Imran Khan has also attacked many Pakistan army generals, particularly the former army chief Gen Bajwa and the ISI, and this has not been taken kindly by the army.
Perhaps, Imran Khan thinks that it is the army which is supporting the present government, and he can cow down the Pakistan army with his crowds. What he forgets is that power grows out of the barrel of a gun, as was demonstrated in Vendémiaire in 1795.
When he orders his crowds to march on Parliament or tries to bring Pakistan to a standstill (towards which his movement seems to be heading), the “whiff of grapeshot” will surely be utilised to deal with the situation.
Justice Markandey Katju retired from the Supreme Court in 2011.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author's and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.
