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China's population could halve in 45 years, says study

'We need to pay attention to the impact of demographics on future consumption'

chinapopf People pick up children from a school in Beijing, China, April 6, 2021 | Reuters

China's population could halve in the next 45 years, a new study by PBOC reveals. The projection is based on the official birth rate of 1.3 children per woman as of 2020.

Mr Cai Fang, a member of the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China, was quoted as saying by Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post as saying, “When the total population enters negative growth, there will be a shortage of demand”.

“We need to pay attention to the impact of demographics on future consumption,” he added.

A PBOC study released a few months ago suggested that China liberalise its birth policy or, in the future face a labour shortage and a higher burden of elderly care than the United States by 2050. A county in western China will give cash subsidies to couples to have children, a Bloomberg report reads. In Linze county in Gansu province, couples with three children can avail of 5,000 yuan in a lump sum payment when the third child is born, as well as 10,000 ($1,551) yuan each year until the child turns three. 

China, on September 27, issued new guidelines limiting the number of abortions performed for ‘non-medical purposes’. The country’s government in 2018 warned that abortions performed to end unwanted pregnancies was harmful to a woman’s body and could affect fertility.

According to the state council, the new guidelines aim in making pre-pregnancy and healthcare services more accessible to women. Experts have blamed changing attitudes on the slumps in the birth rate. China currently faces a demographic crisis. The population growth in 2010 and 2011 was the slowest since the 1950s. 


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