On Wednesday, NSA Ajit Doval held extensive talks with Russian Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev on the security threats emanating from Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. This was India's first detailed and extensive review of the situation in Afghanistan with Russia after Kabul fell to the Taliban. According to multiple reports quoting government sources, there was a convergence of views between the two sides on all majors issues and common threats and they agreed that there is a need for the Taliban to adhere to its promises, and that Islamic extremism was a matter of concern. Both sides also felt that there are high chances of Afghanistan becoming a hub of opium production and trafficking and that the situation in the country was uncertain.
What are Russia's concerns vis-a-vis Afghanistan? Is there a sudden change of tone in the recent times, compared to when Russian envoys heaped praises on the Taliban conduct in the country?
Russia's conundrum in Aghanistan
The Soviet Union fought a 10-year war in Afghanistan that ended with its troops withdrawing in 1989. Since then, Moscow has made a comeback as an influential power broker in international talks on Afghanistan. It has worked continuously to cultivate ties with the Taliban, hosting their representatives for a series of bilateral and multilateral meetings.
A month before Taliban militants unleashed their offensive that ended with the seizure of Kabul, their delegation visited Moscow to offer assurances that they wouldn’t threaten the interests of Russia and its ex-Soviet allies in Central Asia — a sign that they consider ties with Russia a priority.
Taliban spokesman Mohammad Sohail Shaheen said during a visit last month to the Russian capital that “we won’t allow anyone to use the Afghan territory to attack Russia or neighboring countries,” noting that “we have very good relations with Russia.”
Russia sees Taliban’s focus on fighting the Islamic State group, which Moscow sees as the main threat from Afghanistan. Moscow also has hailed the Taliban’s pledge to combat drug trafficking and stem the flow of drugs from Afghanistan via Central Asia.
Russian ambassador to Kabul, Dmitry Zhirnov, had praised the Taliban as “reasonable guys” following a “positive and constructive meeting”, and said that "the group had helped to make the Afghan capital safer in the first 24 hours after the US exit [in the final week of August]."
However, the dynamics had quickly changed. Russia had expressed concerns about the restrictions on airlifting citizens, and had even stated that the "situation remains tense". They have expressed similar statements since?
What are Russia's concerns? Russia's initial schadenfreude on the US humiliation in Kabul did not last long. An influx of refugees into Central America could spell trouble for Russia's backyard, as extremists could be hidden as refugees. Russia also has long-standing contacts within the minority communities in Afghanistan, mainly the Tajiks and the Uzbeks, who look to be completely sidelined in the current scheme of things.
Olga Oliker, director for Europe and Central Asia at the International Crisis Group, told CNBC: "They can be simultaneously somewhat pleased that the US has egg on its face and nervous about the implications. They fear destabilising refugee flows, they fear safe haven for groups that might attack them from Afghanistan, and they fear, as Putin recently said, that militants could hide amongst the refugees,” she said. “If stability holds under the Taliban, and the Taliban keeps to its promise not to let Afghanistan be a base for attacks on Russia and Central Asia, and, ideally, stops the flow of opium, then Russia can live with it. But things could go badly — Russia will be looking to reinforce Central Asia as needed.”
Russia has held a series of joint war games with its allies in Central Asia in recent weeks to underline its pledge to help them fend off any possible security threats.
