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At a tense moment for Turkish-US ties, Erdogan and Biden meet

The list of disagreements is unusually long for the two NATO allies

Turkey Syria Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan | AP

President Joe Biden and Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan have known each other for years, but their meeting Monday will be their first as heads of state. And it comes at a particularly tense moment for relations between their two countries.

The list of disagreements is unusually long for the two NATO allies: There is US support for Kurdish fighters in Syria, as well as Turkey's purchase of a Russian weapons system. And in April, Biden infuriated Ankara by declaring that the Ottoman-era mass killing and deportations of Armenians was genocide.

Previous US presidents had avoided using the term out of concern that it would complicate ties with Turkey, which is fiercely proud of its Ottoman history and insists that those killed in the early 20th century were victims of civil war and unrest.

However, besides blasting the decision in speeches, Erdogan didn't immediately hit back at Washington. The muted response suggests he wants a good relationship with Biden, said Rachel Ellehuus, an analyst at the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"Not least because he needs that economic relationship with the US and the appearance of a cooperative relationship in order to retain his base, which is very much built on a functioning Turkish economy that is tethered into the West," Ellehuus said.

However, before leaving Sunday for the NATO summit in Brussels where he will meet Biden, Erdogan described the president's comments on the killings of Armenians living in the Ottoman Empire as very negative and an approach (that) has seriously upset us.

Erdogan, in power for 18 years as prime minister and then president, also one-on-one meetings with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson lined up during Monday's summit. He told reporters he plans to underline the importance we attach to the alliance with our allies.

He has dialled down his anti-Western rhetoric as his government grapples with an economic downturn made worse by the coronavirus pandemic. His ruling AKP party has recently been hit by a series of corruption allegations, including drug trafficking and arms smuggling, made by a fugitive mafia boss who has been releasing tell-all videos on social media, without evidence.

The most important thing for the Turkish leader at this time is to give a veneer of positive relations with the US in terms of Turkey's image, said Merve Tahiroglu, Turkey program coordinator at the Project on Middle East Democracy. He seems to understand that to get any kind of international investment to Turkey, he will need to project an image of positive relations with the US.

Biden has often touted the personal relationships he's developed with world leaders over nearly 50 years as a factor that makes him uniquely equipped to revitalise the reputation of the United States following the presidency of Donald Trump.

In recent days, he's mentioned to aides that he's developed a strong rapport with Erdogan over the years, according to a senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.

Biden still fondly recalls making a house call to Erdogan in 2011 when he was in Turkey to speak at the Global Entrepreneurs Summit, according to the official. Erdogan did not attend because he was recovering from major surgery, but Biden stopped by to check in on him. Their conversation was supposed to be brief but lasted over two hours.

Still, the relationship has been complicated at times. In 2014, while vice president, Biden apologised to Erdogan after suggesting in a speech that Turkey helped facilitate the rise of the Islamic State militant group by allowing foreign fighters to cross Turkey's border with Syria. During the 2020 presidential campaign, Biden drew ire from Turkish officials after an interview with The New York Times in which he called Erdogan an autocrat.

Erdogan enjoyed collegial relations with Trump, who didn't give him a hard time about Turkey's human rights record and agreed to withdraw US troops from northern Syria in 2019, paving the way for a Turkish military offensive against Syrian Kurdish fighters who had fought alongside US forces against IS militants. Biden was strongly critical of that decision, accusing Trump of selling out US allies.

Erdogan waited several days before congratulating Biden on his election victory as Trump challenged the results. At the same time, Erdogan sent a message to Trump thanking him for his warm friendship.

After taking office, Biden waited three months before giving Erdogan a call, which was widely seen in Turkey as a snub. The first time they spoke after the election was when Biden called to tell Erdogan about the Armenian genocide announcement.

In an interview with Turkish state broadcaster TRT on June 1, Erdogan noted he had cordial relations with previous US presidents, particularly Trump, and that he would ask Biden on the sidelines of the NATO meeting why Turkey-US relations are in such a state of tension.

Biden and Erdogan are expected to take up Turkey's purchase of the S-400 advanced Russian defense systems, a procurement that angered Washington and resulted in Ankara being kicked out of the US F-35 fighter aircraft production program, sanctions on senior Turkish defense industry officials, and bans on military export licenses.

Washington says the Russian system is a threat to NATO security and insists that sanctions cannot be lifted until Turkey gets rid of the system, which has cost the country $2.5 billion.

Turkey repeatedly has called for dialogue to resolve the issue. Turkish media reports say Turkey is set to propose the deployment of the S-400s at Incirlik air base, which is home to a US Air Force wing, where they would be watched by US military officials. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters the S-400s would be 100 per cent under (Turkish) control and that no Russian military official would be in Turkey. 

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