2020 is the birth centenary year of Brigadier J.P. Dalvi, an unsung hero of the 1962 war who was taken prisoner of war by China.
In his book, Himalayan Blunder, he quotes the Chinese Major in charge of his solitary confinement saying “India and China have been friends for thousands of years and have never fought before. China does not want war. It is the reactionary [sic] Indian government that was bent on war. So the Chinese counterattacked in self-defence and liberated all our territories in [the North-East Frontier Agency] and Ladakh, in just one month. Now we have decided to go back as we do not want to settle the border problem by force. We have proved that you are no match for mighty China”.
The above statement reveals the Chinese mindset and the consistency in their thinking over the years. Terms like ‘self-defence’, ‘mighty China’, ‘historical memories of subjugation’, ‘teaching a lesson’ and the like hold expanded meaning in the Chinese thinking and are invoked as a justification for their territorial claims. The latest in the series of China’s territorial claims includes the Sakteng wildlife sanctuary in East Bhutan. In addition, after a Chinese diplomat in Pakistan noted that Vladivostok used to be called Haishenwai, Chinese social media users commented, “In the past, Vladivostok was our Haishenwai. We must believe that this ancestral land will return home in the future.”
Going by China’s track record, the unambiguous message from all this is, the list of Chinese “historical memories of subjugation” will continue to enlarge in tune with her economic and military might.
Coming to the ongoing India-China standoff, what has disturbed China so much that it has mobilized its forces to a level never seen before? It is inconceivable that the purpose was just a show of force or for executing small ‘salami-slice’ grabs. China certainly had a much bigger objective and, even now, it would not be wise to assume that the objective has been given up.
The steady improvement in infrastructure on the Indian side, along the India -Tibet border was always a concern for Chinese and remained under their intense scrutiny. The sudden change of track in India’s Jammu & Kashmir policy last year took the Chinese by surprise. The new orientation also cast its shadow over Baluchistan and Gilgit-Baltistan, adding a new security dimension to Aksai Chin and China’s reach to the ‘Second Ocean’.
The Gwadar port and the communication lines leading to it through Aksai Chin are crucial to China’s ‘Two Ocean Strategy’. With the Chinese economy, influence and aspiration all on an unabated expansion mode, China is beginning to feel strangled due to inadequate access to oceans. Its vulnerability in Aksai Chin is, therefore, irreconcilable for China. China had to act. The coronavirus was only incidental in providing an opportunity.
How did the Chinese see it? The Indian economy was already in a steep plunging path and the domestic political divide was threatening to shred the country’s social fabric when the Wuhan virus struck. To the Chinese, the stage looked set. A collapse of the Indian health care system, the complete breakdown of law and order and total chaos and disorder looked imminent. The rest of the world had their hands full and a few miles shift in the nebulous LAC would not be serious enough an issue for involvement beyond well-drafted statement s of condemnation. From the Chinese perspective, from every angle, this was an ideal opportunity.
China cannot be blamed for its inability to assess the underlying intrinsic strength of India beyond the haze and clutter of its deep political and social divides and disorderliness. The Chinese could not have expected the Indian cacophony to give way to an incredible national resolve when they made a move. They now feel entangled in an uncomfortable position with a severe decision dilemma.
The Indian Army is standing firm in the mountains and Indian Navy looks poised to exploit the Chinese disadvantage in the Indian Ocean. With the added advantage of operating from airfields in the plains, the Indian Air Force is looking at the wide-open Tibetan plateau. Indian Armed forces also enjoy a clear advantage over their Chinese counterparts in terms of battle experience and manpower quality. Not a single serving Chinese soldier would have the experience of operating under heavy artillery fire and live bullets being fired at him. Contrast this with his battle-hardened Indian counterpart who goes through such intense combat conditions on a regular basis.
The difference gets further accentuated when we consider that about 20 per cent of Chinese soldiers are conscripted, waiting to complete three years of compulsory service. These are critical and intangible force multipliers beyond weapons and equipment. The current standoff has also served some clear lessons for India. It is evident that only a credible tri-services conventional military capability combined with strong political resolve can deter China; now, in the medium term and in the long term.
Similarly, a pivot in our focus from the western to the northern border has been long overdue. A conflict with China should not be confined to the mountains alone. The Indian Navy and the Air Force can play major roles in the Oceans and the Chinese air space. Depending on criticality, even the nuclear card can be invoked. In the eventuality of an India-China war, the question will not be who wins, but whether we can impose a cost on China higher than what it would be prepared to pay for a perceived victory. As of now, the answer to that question is in the affirmative.
Any analysis of the present India-China imbroglio must keep the existing global environment in the background. The environment looks most unfavourable for China. The whole world considers them responsible for spreading the Wuhan virus and the cascading health and economic mayhem that it has caused them. Countries have united in calling out China and thwarting its predatory attempts to gobble up companies in distressed global markets. Taiwan remains elusive. Hong Kong continues to burn.
All across, from the East and South China Seas to Aksai Chin, China’s belligerent attitude has antagonized its neighbours. Its attitude has been no different in trade-related issues where even the US and Australia have not been spared. Xi Jinping, the lifelong President, has secured the ill will, mistrust and suspicion of the entire world, causing irreparable damage to China’s image. The situation is no better within its own borders for China. The Chinese population continues to be on a very tight leash. China is forced to censor even the PLA’s death figures in the Galwan clash.
Xi Jinping and the CPC must be envying the Indian democratic structure where the public pays rich tribute to every single martyr, questions the government about every inch of land on every finger in Ladakh and tolerates even some domestic opinions that resemble those of Chinese voices. It is beyond the Chinese to imagine a system which can forgive one of its national political parties for giving open support to the adversary even during a war, and for it to still survive and flourish.
The day is not far when the Chinese public will also start questioning the CPC and their government. How long can the Chinese population be denied freedom and liberty as enunciated by the Universal Declaration of Human Rights?
In the aftermath of the Wuhan virus outbreak, China was in an envious position to win over the world by extending generous assistance to countries across the globe. In tandem with its rising economic and military power, it would have added a great deal to China’s soft power and carried it many steps closer to being a true global leader. This would also have been in absolute consonance with the Chinese aspiration to replace the US as the global leader. But, instead, China threw away the golden opportunity that fell on its lap by displaying a reckless hurry and ruthlessness in pursuit of achieving global supremacy. As a leader, China now stands alone, sans followers, blamed by the whole world, and viewed suspiciously even by countries in dire distress.
Such miscalculation on the part of China is difficult to fathom as it runs contrary to the common belief that the Chinese never utter a word or take a step without thinking it through. But, then, even the gods are fallible and Xi Jinping, after all, is only human. China, it appears, has unwittingly led itself into a Chakravyuh and is in search for a way out. Xi Jinping must be wishing that Sun Tzu and Mao Tsetung had examined the concept of Chakravyuh.
The author is a former Deputy Chief of the Army.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors' and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK.
