US-Taliban peace deal yet to fructify as tussle between presidents continues in Afghanistan

Intra-Afghan talks have missed their first deadline over the release of prisoners

US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, left, and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban group's top political leader, shake hands after signing a peace agreement in Doha, Qatar | AP US peace envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, left, and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban group's top political leader, shake hands after signing a peace agreement in Doha, Qatar | AP

Twenty days after the US and Taliban inked an agreement that was to end the war in Afghanistan, peace hasn’t broken out. The Taliban is firmly in the saddle—intra-Afghan talks have missed their first deadline over the release of prisoners and the future of Afghanistan hangs in the balance. The biggest hurdle to stability in Afghanistan is the tussle between President Ashraf Ghani and President Abdullah Abdullah.

“Afghan leaders must prioritise and protect unity of the nation’’ tweeted Alice G. Wells, the principal deputy assistant secretary of the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs on Thursday. “Parallel Afghan governments are not the answer, and will be harmful to the Afghan people. The impasse over governance must end.’’

Both the leaders were sworn in as president on March 9. While the Independent Election Commission declared Ghani as the winner, Abdullah Abdullah refused to accept the verdict and formed a parallel government. Attempts by America to broker an agreement have so far failed. This is not the first time that the two have chosen to battle it over the results—the 2014 elections saw a similar scenario. John Kerry, who was the US secretary of state, had then stepped in to get Abdullah to accept the position of CEO. This time, however, both leaders have dug in their heels. The lack of unity is certainly going to play right into the hands of the Taliban, warn experts, especially at the intra-Afghan talks.

India is uneasy with the fight too. India has firmly thrown its weight behind President Ghani. His election was recognised by the election commission. And India has a long history of backing the institution. India made its choice clear much before the swearing in as foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla—on the eve of the US signing an agreement with the Taliban—flew to Kabul to congratulate Ghani. Going beyond just a gesture, India also committed to a road project in Bamiyan and Mazhar-e-Sharif.

Over the years, India has sought to cultivate relations Afghans across the political spectrum. And the President vs President battle, for India, is a fight between friends. The only way forward is for the two leaders to reach an agreement.

India was not the only country that has been caught in the middle. Russia too is concerned. The Russian foreign ministry has issued a statement last week, warning over the spilt in the Afghan government. “The emerging crisis situation sparks concerns of further destabilisation of the already complex internal political situation in the country and of negative consequences for the beginning of the intra-Afghan talks, the perspective of which appeared in the wake of the US-Taliban peace treaty signed in Doha on February 29,’’ the ministry has been quoted as saying.

For Russia, this instability is worrying. Especially, as it signed a joint statement with the US—kept secret and only revealed on March 6—which effectively makes Russia the security guarantor of the region. The statement—which has been praised by the UN Security Council too—recognises that the US-Taliban agreement is the first step to ending the war and opens the door to intra-Afghan talks. While Russian agreement with the US hopes to put international anxieties at rest, with a commitment to women’s rights and a refusal to recognise Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, it does bring back Russia in the Great Game of Afghanistan.

But with the battle between the governments, chances are that peace is far far away.

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