As far as international politics is concerned, 2018 was a challenging year. Fringe populism, both of the right and the left, has become increasingly mainstream and democracy is facing growing challenges. The world is missing its statesmen while rabble-rousers and populists are growing in popularity and notching up political victories. Here is a quick look at some of the leading newsmakers of 2018:
Brexit
Britain is about to make its most significant political decision in a matter of months, but no one is sure what will it be, eventually. Britain's decision to leave the European Union has been set in motion by Prime Minister Theresa May and March 29 is the deadline for the process. But, even May does not have a clue about how it is going to play out. She lost one foreign secretary, two Brexit secretaries and six other ministers because of the chaos surrounding Brexit. To fend off challenges to her leadership from her own party, she was forced to drop heavy hints that she will not be leading the Tories in the next general election. Even after negotiating with EU leaders for an year, May was not able to conclude an exit deal acceptable to parliament, forcing her to postpone a vote. Time is running out for her. It is quite possible that Britain will have to go ahead with the “no deal” option, but the country will have to pay a heavy price for it, with no certainty on things including trade tariffs, travel rules and immigration. A second referendum on Brexit, which was once ridiculed by the Conservative Party, is now an option which is being considered by senior members of the May cabinet.
The Labour Party is also equally divided. Its leader Jeremy Corbyn has been a lifelong Eurosceptic, and as a result, unlike most senior leaders of the party. The bitter divide has stopped it from adopting a coherent position and challenge the Tories.
Trump
2018 was a mixed bag for US President Donald Trump. He has won some major victories for himself and his conservative base. He has managed to sabotage Obamacare. His NATO allies are worried as he keeps up the pressure for more funding from other NATO members. He even appeared like a statesman by orchestrating peace talks with Kim Jong-un of North Korea. He renegotiated NAFTA, bringing in a new trade deal with Canada and Mexico and pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal. Despite the fight put up by Democrats, he managed to get two new Supreme Court judges installed. He managed significant tax cuts and a massive amount of deregulation.
Trump, however, faced a major setback at the midterms in December. While the Republicans did not do that bad, they lost control of the House of Representatives. The Democrats can now use the House's subpoena powers to demand several documents, such as Trump's tax returns and also protect Rober Mueller's investigations into Trump's alleged ties with Russia. It could also curb Trump's legislative agenda as he will have to work with the Democrats to get bills cleared in the House.
Trump is also hampered by the extremely high turnover of his senior officials. Defence secretary James Mattis, Interior secretary Ryan Zinke and White House chief of staff John Kelly quit in December; attorney general Jeff Sessions and UN ambassador Nikki Haley in November. Other prominent officials who quit in 2018 include secretary of state Rex Tillerson, national security adviser H.R. McMaster and chief economic adviser Gary Cohn. Several senior positions are lying vacant, leading to administrative crisis. A series of legal battles which are crucial to Trump's agenda are expected to unfold in 2019. The legality of Trump's asylum and immigration policies, the constitutionality of Obamacare and questions on LGBT rights could be decided by the supreme court.
Europe
Europe was supposed to be one of the bright spots of 2018, but it has become a huge mess as the year draws to a close. The European Union was hoping for an orderly Brexit, but the Theresa May government has not been able to put a coherent narrative about the costly divorce, let alone an acceptable plan. With its charismatic president Emmanuel Macron, France was supposed to lead Europe to order and prosperity, but he has turned out to be just like his predecessors in the Elysee Palace. Macron seemed to have a plan to resurrect the French economy, which would have involved some amount of austerity. But the yellow vest movement has caught the imagination of the French public, leading to the worst violence in France in half a century. Proposed hikes in tax rates, fuel surcharges and the rising cost of living have brought hundreds of thousands out on the street as the demand for Macron's resignation is intensifying. Unless the president seizes the initiative and wins back the confidence of the French public, France is likely to witness a major political crisis in 2019. Neighbouring Germany, which has been, for decades, the de facto leader of the EU, is also going through a major political upheaval. The mainstream right and left are becoming increasingly unpopular forcing leaders to move further to the fringes. Angela Merkel has already announced her plan to step down after the end of her term and the Christian Democratic Union has elected Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as her successor. Karrenbauer faces a major challenge to hold the EU together after Brexit, with France, Italy, Hungary and Poland also asking questions about the European supra government.
Saudi Arabia and the Khashoggi murder
Saudi Arabia's 2018 will forever be defined by the murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Once a palace insider and troubleshooter for the royal family, Jamal fell out of favour after Salman succeeded Abdullah as the king of Saudi Arabia.
Within two years of Salman taking charge, his favourite son Mohammed bin Salman became the crown prince, upending the decades-old succession system in Saudi Arabia. Jamal had anticipated that he would be targeted and left Saudi Arabia just before the purge in November 2017. He went to the US, where The Washington Post hired him as a columnist. Jamal said he left because he did not want to be arrested. He said Saudi Arabia was never a liberal society, but it grew worse under MbS. “I got fired from my job twice because I was pushing for reform in Saudi Arabia. It wasn’t that easy but people were not being put in jails.”
During his self-imposed exile, Jamal met Hatice Cengiz, a PhD student from Istanbul. The two fell in love and decided to get married in early October. Jamal had to get a certified copy of his divorce to marry Hatice for which he went to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on September 28. He was asked to collect the document On October 2. Jamal went to the consulate on the afternoon of October 2 with Hatice, but he never came out. Saudi officials said he had left the consulate. But, the Turkish intelligence, which had apparently bugged the Saudi consulate, started leaking reports, pointing towards high level involvement from Riyadh. Saudi Arabia finally acknowledged that Jamal was killed inside the consulate in a rogue operation. Saudi authorities reiterated that MbS was unaware of the mission.
The murder created a major crisis for Saudi Arabia as several global leaders, including May, Macron and Merkel took up the issue and castigated the Saudi leadership. US President Donald Trump, however, has continued to support MbS despite a bipartisan consensus in the US Congress that the crown prince was responsible for the murder. The issue is unlikely to die down soon and could continue to create problems for Saudi Arabia in the international scene.
Sri Lanka
The first big sign of political crisis in Sri Lanka came when a leading Indian newspaper reported on an assassination plot targeting President Maithripala Sirisena. Sirisena reportedly told a cabinet meeting that a cabinet minister was planning to kill him with the support of the R&AW. Sirisena immediately denied the news and called up Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to deny the charge. A few days later, however, Sirisena dismissed the UNP ministry under Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and appointed former president Mahinda Rajapaksa as PM. Three years ago, Sirisena had quit Rajapaksa's party and fought and won against him with Wickremesinghe's support. Being the consummate political operator, Rajapaksa managed to drive a wedge between the two and got Sirisena to dismiss Wickremesinghe. After Rajapaksa failed to break the united opposition, Sirisena dissolved the parliament. The move was vetoed by the supreme court and Wickremesinghe subsequently won the trust vote in parliament. Although Rajapaksa was voted out, Sirisena refused to budge and it took yet another intervention by the supreme court for him to relent and reappoint Wickremesinghe as prime minister.
The truce, however, is only temporary. Sirisena said he reappointed Wickremesinghe only because of judicial orders. It was a tactical retreat. He and Rajapaksa are likely to work to undermine the Wickremesinghe government. Without Sirisena's support, the UNP government does not have the two-third majority if it wants go ahead with the promised constitutional reforms and major legislation.
North Korea
All was not dull and gloomy in 2018. After years of threatening the world with nuclear annihilation, North Korea chose to return to the path of dialogue. Hurt by tough sanctions and prodded by China, the US and South Korea, on April 27, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un drove to the South and met South Korean President Moon Jae-in at the peace village of Panmunjom in the demilitarised zone. After about 100 minutes of discussions, the two Koreas issued a joint statement, a first in history. Nearly two months later, Kim met with US President Donald Trump in Singapore, in an unprecedented summit. The summits removed the immediate threat of war from the Korean peninsula as the North indicated its willingness to embark upon the process of denuclearisation, the key demand of the US and its allies. The two Koreas, meanwhile, are working towards family reunification, de-mining of the border, better connectivity by road and rail and also towards improving trade relations. The rail link, especially, is a major step towards peace as it demonstrated the North's willingness to let engineers from the South undertake extensive surveys in the North. Moreover, the project has been launched with special sanction from the UN to override sanctions against Pyongyang. Kim hosted Moon in Pyongyang for a second summit in September. Trump and Kim are expected to meet in the first half of 2019 to iron out remaining differences and take the peace process forward.
