Rajasthan's Battle Royale

GUEST COLUMN: Cong has upper hand in Rajasthan after bypolls' sweep

sachin-pilot-legislators-raj-bypolls-pti Sachin Pilot with the Congress' winning legislators in the three bypolls | PTI

The BJP suffered a major setback in the three byelections in Rajasthan recently, bringing to the fore the peoples' anger against the Vasundhara Raje government in Jaipur.

Two of the bypolls were for the Alwar and Ajmer Lok Sabha seats, while the third one was for the Mandalgarh Assembly constituency.

Raje is the first woman chief minister of Rajasthan and this is her second term. The bypolls had the billing of a 'semifinal' before the Assembly elections due later this year in December.

Thanks to NOTA, the saffron brigade managed to scrape through in Gujarat, registering its sixth successive win in last November's Assembly elections in the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It is widely believed Raje's 'non-governance' has cost the BJP dearly.

On the other hand, Congress president Rahul Gandhi might be overambitious in viewing his party's win in the byelections in a state in the 'cow belt' as the beginning of the end of the BJP. The ruling party has already paid the price for the chief minister's power struggle with its ideological parent, the RSS.

The disquiet in the RSS towards the Raje government led to its volunteers abstaining from electioneering during the bypolls. The Sangh took exception to Raje giving them the cold shoulder during the 2013 Assembly elections in Rajasthan.

The result of the byelections has jolted the BJP, coupled with its failure to act upon its promise of a farm loan waiver. What is critical for Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is to ameliorate farm distress along with providing quality universal healthcare.

BJP strategists believe the situation is not as bad as projected by the opposition. There is no doubt that Raje as the chief minister needs to fix things on both the policy and state fronts.

The Congress has made it clear they will not announce a chief ministerial candidate in advance, emphasising the party is united under Rahul Gandhi's leadership.

The oldest party in the country concedes that elections are increasingly becoming presidential in character. At the same time, voters are keen to know the chief ministerial nominee of the political party in advance. This affords them the opportunity to weigh the pros and cons before exercising their franchise.

It is acknowledged that Rajasthan Congress chief Sachin Pilot has galvanised the organisation. He has consistently taken up issues against the Raje government. The Congress' former two-time chief minister, Ashok Gehlot, who is now in-charge of Gujarat, is an amiable mass leader and a good administrator. Those in the chief minister's race include C.P. Joshi, Namo Narayan Meena and Girija Vyas among others; this vast number of potential 'aspirants' has the portends of creating factionalism.

The shrinking of BJP's support base had arisen in the wake of a section of the Rajputs announcing their decision to vote for the Congress. This was attributed to the Centre's decision of rolling out the GST and demonetisation, both of which were beyond the control of the Raje government.

The farmers targeted the Raje government for failing to implement the agricultural loan waiver of Rs 50,000 to each of them.

The committee appointed after a 13-day farmers' agitation in the Shekhawati region is yet to take a decision after having visited Kerala and some other states to study their compensation models.

There is resentment among a section of the BJP workers drawn towards the 'Deendayal Vahini', floated by rebel MLA and former minister Ghanshyam Tiwari.

After being denied a cabinet birth, he alleged the party's central leadership was supporting a corrupt government. His outburst raised eyebrows in the party ranks as he questioned Raje's continuance as the chief minister.

The other factors for BJP's defeat in the Alwar and Ajmer Parliamentary seats as well as the Mandalgarh Assembly segment was the bitterness of the business community and deteriorating law and order situation in the semi-urban areas as well as the enactment of a legislation to protect officers charged with graft, along with Gujjars and Brahmins turning against the party over reservation.

The voting in the urban pockets showed a marked shift away from the BJP. This was on account of the traders' anger over losses in business and complications connected with filing GST returns.

The Congress put up a united front and Sachin Pilot launched a frontal attack against the BJP's policies and programmes, cashing in on the resentment of the various sections of the people.

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the publication.

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