Exit polls for the Assam Assembly elections suggest a clear edge for the BJP over the Congress-led opposition. The Congress, however, has placed its hopes on the legacy, organisational recall, and perceived popularity of Gaurav Gogoi, son of former chief minister Tarun Gogoi.
The party entered the elections with weakened momentum, having suffered a series of defections in the months leading up to the polls. Key figures such as Pradyut Bordoloi and former state unit president Bhupen Kumar Bora struggled to be part of the party and eventually left for the BJP. Still, senior leaders claim that the party regained some ground in the final phase of campaigning and expect a performance better than the 2021 Assembly elections.
Yet, the larger question looms: what if the Congress loses Assam for a third consecutive term?
In Indian politics, three successive defeats are rarely dismissed as a temporary setback, they often signal structural decline. Historical patterns suggest that parties kept out of power for three straight terms find it increasingly difficult to rebuild organisational strength or reclaim political relevance.
Party insiders admit that while the Congress may have run a relatively effective campaign, the exit polls paint a grim picture. If the trend holds, Assam could join a growing list of states, such as Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, and Haryana, where the Congress has primarily failed to return to power across multiple election cycles.
The implications go beyond electoral arithmetic. Prolonged periods in opposition tend to erode cadre motivation and accelerate the exit of ambitious leaders. In states like Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has consolidated its position over time, attracting leaders from rival parties and leaving the Congress with a shrinking bench strength. Haryana remains a partial exception, where Bhupendra Singh Hooda continues to anchor the party among Jat voters.
A parallel can be drawn with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, which saw its organisational strength diminish after repeated electoral setbacks. Over time, declining morale and reduced political leverage translated into weaker performances, as the party had a striking decline from over 80 seats in 2020 to around 25 in 2025.
In Assam, the situation has been further complicated by the rise of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, a former Congress leader whose shift to the BJP significantly altered the state’s political landscape. His exit not only deprived the Congress of a key strategist but also triggered a chain of defections, hollowing out the party’s grassroots network.
Political observers warn that a third consecutive defeat could intensify internal fault lines. Much of the scrutiny is likely to fall on Gaurav Gogoi, with some leaders already questioning his ability to coordinate party activities and retain organisational loyalty.
“Workers cannot sustain three straight terms in opposition,” said a Congress leader. “They need incentives, direction, and above all, hope. Without strong leadership, it becomes difficult to keep them engaged for another five years.”
Regional parties offer cautionary examples. The Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD), despite strong regional roots, witnessed strains in cadre cohesion soon after losing power.
Within the Congress, comparisons with Tarun Gogoi remain inevitable. “If Tarun Gogoi spoke to you, he left you as a supporter,” said a senior party insider. “That personal connect is missing today. Leadership is not just about strategy, it’s also about listening and being accessible.”
If the exit polls translate into results, the Congress in Assam may not just be facing another defeat, but a deeper crisis of relevance, organisation, and leadership.