For nearly a quarter century, the Shiromani Akali Dal and the Bharatiya Janata Party anchored one of India’s most durable political alliances. Formed in 1997, when Punjab was emerging from militancy, the partnership brought together Sikh and Hindu constituencies as well as rural and urban voters. This was always hailed as an alliance in national interest.
The alliance delivered repeated victories. It swept the 1997 Assembly elections and returned to power in 2007 and 2012. The 1997–2002 period also marked the first full term of an Akali-led government in the state.
The partnership collapsed in 2020 after the Centre enacted three farm laws that triggered widespread protests in Punjab. Facing pressure from its core support base, the Akali Dal exited the National Democratic Alliance and the Union government. Subsequent efforts to revive the alliance did not succeed.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah, during a rally in Moga last week, has since made it clear that the BJP will contest the 2027 Punjab Assembly elections independently, thus dashing hopes of its ally of jointly contesting polls, which could have given it a shot at power.
The BJP’s confidence rests partly on its electoral performance. It secured around 19 per cent of the vote in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Punjab, when it contested alone.
BJP leaders view this as a base that can be expanded, drawing parallels with states such as Assam, Tripura and Uttarakhand, where similar vote shares preceded a rise to power.
Punjab, however, presents a more complex challenge. The BJP is not stepping into a vacuum. The Akali Dal has declined but continues to retain segments of its traditional support, particularly in rural areas. The BJP’s own presence in these areas remains limited, and sections of Sikh voters remain wary in the aftermath of the farm law protests.
In response, the party has increased its outreach to Sikh institutions and communities. Commemorations of Guru Tegh Bahadur’s 350th martyrdom anniversary were organised across BJP-ruled states.
Senior leaders have participated in religious events and engaged with institutions such as the Damdami Taksal. At the same time, the BJP has reached out to other religious groups, including Radha Soamis and Ravidasias, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting the Sachkhand Dera in Jalandhar.
Contesting alone will require the BJP to build an organisational base it had not developed earlier in Punjab. This includes identifying local leadership, expanding into rural constituencies and attracting leaders from other parties.
The decision also reshapes the electoral contest. The 2027 election is likely to see a multi-cornered fight involving the Aam Aadmi Party, the Congress, the BJP and the Akali Dal, along with smaller factions.
Also Read
- Who are BJP's candidates for Kerala assembly polls? First list released, Rajeev Chandrasekhar to contest from Nemom
- Kerala assembly polls: Nattika MLA C.C. Mukundan joins BJP after denied seat by CPI
- Will Vijay’s TVK join BJP? Amid CBI questioning, NDA Deputy CM tasked with convincing ‘Thalapathy’: Report
For the Akali Dal, the election is critical. Party leader Sukhbir Singh Badal faces the task of reviving an organisation weakened by electoral losses and internal divisions, while also confronting competing Sikh political voices. But contesting alone or maybe in alliance with the BSP, as it did last time, risks meeting the same fate as last time. However, there is another concern: the decline of the Akali Dal also risks the hardliners like Amritpal Singh’s party gaining ground.
Amritpal Singh, now in Assam jail, known for his radical views, had gained ground rapidly after the decline of the Akali Dal, which represented panthic interest but had moderate beliefs. Again, contesting alone without BJP support fuels fear of polarisation.
The BJP’s decision to contest alone alters the political landscape but does not guarantee a breakthrough. Its prospects will depend on whether it can expand beyond its urban base and build credibility among rural and Sikh voters.
The Aam Aadmi Party and the Congress continue to compete across social groups. In 2022, voters delivered a decisive mandate to the AAP, displacing traditional parties. The party’s governance record under Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, supported closely by Arvind Kejriwal, will be tested as it seeks re-election. The party claims that it has fulfilled all its election promises.
A year from now, Punjab’s 2027 election appears to be shaping up as a fragmented contest, where organisational strength, leadership and voter trust will matter as much as vote share.