Is the Janata Dal Secular (JDS) in Karnataka heading for a split just like the Shiv Sena and the NCP in Maharashtra?
The regional party that is an ally of the NDA is sure stressed over holding its flock of 18 legislators together as the threat of an "Operation Hasta" (poaching of rival party legislators by the ruling Congress) looms large.
The Congress has a thumping majority in the Assembly with 135 seats. The ruling party wooing the JDS legislators might not make sense unless it is part of the strategy by Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar to establish his dominance in the Old Mysuru region as the tallest Vokkaliga leader.
Shivakumar, who led his party to victory last Assembly elections, is still waiting in the side wings to occupy the CM's chair. His recent interview to a national TV admitting there is indeed a power-sharing agreement between him and Chief Minister Siddaramaiah was tactful and a desperate attempt to remind the party's high command of the "secret pact".
Shivakumar's shrewdness was once again on display during the winter session of the state legislature at Belagavi, where he recalled how he had forced S.M. Krishna to induct him into his cabinet. He also told the Assembly about his guru's advice to "snatch" whatever he truly deserved.
The BJP, reading into Shivakumar's statement, claims it is his warning to Siddaramaiah to vacate the CM's chair when it is time.
The Congress sweeping the Vokkaliga belt (the Old Mysuru region) in the Assembly polls is being attributed to the Vokkaliga votes shifting from the JDS to the Congress to see a fellow Vokkaliga become the chief minister. But the CM's post remained elusive as the party chose Siddaramaiah, a mass leader, as the chief minister for a second time.
This time, Shivakumar, who is fighting many battles within his own party and against other CM aspirants propped up by the Siddaramaiah faction, senses that his party chief's post is also no longer safe.
While Siddaramaiah enjoys the support of a majority of legislators, Shivakumar is struggling to increase his support base among the legislators, which is crucial for his transition as the next CM.
'Operation Hasta' can bring the much-needed support of Vokkaliga legislators which will help him emerge as a mass leader and give him better bargaining power within the party. Also, wooing two-thirds (12 legislators) from the JDS would help escape the anti-defection law and the need for by-polls too.
After Congress MLA C.P. Yogeshwar (who defeated NDA candidate Nikhil Kumaraswamy in Channapatna bypolls) claimed to "empty out" the JDS within a month if he is given the task by his party, the JDS is in firefighting mode.
Yogeshwar had claimed that the JDS legislators were disillusioned after the party joined hands with the BJP.
"JDS legislators see no future in the party and would want to join the Congress. There will be no JDS in the next Assembly elections as it would have been merged with the BJP," said Yogeshwar.
Recently, Congress MLA from Channagiri Shivaganga Basavaraj claimed 11-12 JDS legislators would soon join the Congress.
Industries minister M.B. Patil predicted that the JDS would be "non-existent" after Sankranti.
JDS MLA and chairman of coordination committee G.T. Devegowda's camaraderie with Siddaramaiah, an adversary of JDS patriarch H.D. Devegowda, and his open dissidence against Union minister and JDS state president H.D. Kumaraswamy have only added to the party's woes.
Kumaraswamy, who is too busy with his ministerial responsibilities is struggling to give time for party activities, which in turn has disappointed the cadres. The BJP-JDS alliance is also a cause of resentment among local leaders, who want the JDS to go it alone in the upcoming local body elections.
Kumaraswamy is in a dilemma over choosing his son Nikhil Kumaraswamy as the next state president fearing a backlash from the senior leaders. The family-centric party is still smarting from Nikhil's three consecutive losses in elections.
With former minister and Holenarsipur MLA H.D. Revanna and his sons Prajwal and Suraj facing criminal cases including kidnap and sexual assault, the party has lost its face among the voters too.
Sensing trouble, Devegowda and Kumaraswamy held a meeting with former and incumbent party legislators to take them into confidence and chalk out a strategy to stay relevant, widen the support base and contest the upcoming ZP and TP polls.
Kumaraswamy's breakfast meeting in Delhi with BJP MLA Ramesh Jarkiholi, a sworn enemy of Shivakumar, is hinting at a larger game plan to rein in the common enemy. Ramesh's brother and Congress leader Satish Jarkiholi, who is the PWD minister in the Siddaramaiah cabinet is a top contender for the KPCC president's post.
Devegowda, while speaking at the JDS party meeting last Sunday, said, "Congress believes the JDS will collapse if they manage to break Kumaraswamy. But what they don't realise is that there are lakhs of dedicated party workers standing firmly behind Kumaraswamy."
The former Prime Minister also assured the party leaders and workers that he would tour every district from March, stay in party workers' homes and carry out membership drives to strengthen the party.
