Lucknow is closer to Delhi than Kolkata. So, Mamata Banerjee, after defeating the BJP in the 2021 West Bengal assembly election, was widely expected to use the UP assembly polls this year to kickstart her foray into Delhi politics. However, the CM and TMC supremo has decided to help Samajwadi Party's Akhilesh Yadav, who is increasingly becoming a threat to incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. With no grand alliance in place against the BJP in UP, Yadav will have to cash in on majority of anti-BJP votes, along with retaining SP's old vote bank.
In such a do-or-die battle, she would have to ensure Muslim support in the state, which is around 22 per cent of the population. Adityanath's recent remark that the upcoming UP polls is between “80 per cent and 20 per cent”, shows that the BJP and SP have understood the importance of upper-class Hindu and Muslim votes. Both the sections had earlier supported the Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Since 2017, upper-class Hindu voters have sided with the BJP. Muslims have been voting for Congress, BSP and SP, thus splitting the votes.
With West Bengal assembly polls seeing consolidation of Muslim votes in favour of the TMC, the SP has decided to take the advantage of Banerjee's charisma among Muslims.
In Kolkata, Deobandis have bigger clout over the Muslim population which was evident from the fact that even the local sect, Furfura Sharif, failed to make an impact in the last assembly polls. So, Banerjee's equation with Deobandis will be helpful in UP, too.
Banerjee played a crucial role in the farmers' movement against the farm laws, by sending her MPs and MLAs to the protest march and also raising the issue inside Parliament. The farmers leaders met her in Kolkata, and she advised them to held their ground till the Narendra Modi government repealed the laws. So, in west UP, her support would be crucial to the SP, though Yadav looks comfortable there.
So, in the Awadh belt, if Banerjee's influence causes Muslim voters to desert the Congress and the BSP, the SP might gain. Awadh is the belt where BJP would like to retain its solid vote bank.
Banerjee might also have an impact in east UP, especially in Allahabad (Prayagraj), Faizabad and Varanasi, which have a sizeable Bengali population.
"We think, in these areas, Mamata ji will have a role to play. For people who are opposed to the BJP, she is an important politician in the country. So, if Akhilesh and Mamata join hands, you may see a surprise result in the upcoming elections," SP vice-president Kiranmoy Nanda told THE WEEK.
But political observers warn that overhyping Banerjee might hurt Yadav's chances. He enjoys support among the Jats and Yadavs, and also with OBC groups. So, if Banerjee overplays the Muslim card, it could take away a considerable part of Yadav's Hindu votes.
"All depends on Mamata. Yadav must understand that his opponent is none other than a Hindu icon," said a senior national Congress leader.
