What Putin’s visit means for India-Russia ties in the changing global order

Vladimir Putin means business. His international tours are usually shorn of pomp and pageantry. Even by his standards, however, Putin's December 6 visit to New Delhi will be remarkable in its brevity. He's expected to fly in around the afternoon and will be off at 9.30 pm after a quick dinner. The length of the visit, however, is no indicator of the importance that Russia gives to India. This will be Putin's second international visit since the pandemic; he had earlier gone to Geneva in June and met US president Joe Biden. Putin has not made an appearance at any of the important multilateral meetings, either. He was absent from the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September, the G-20 in Rome in October and the Conference of Parties 26 Summit in Glasgow in November. 

A lot has been packed into the December 6 meetings, with bilaterals between defence ministers Rajnath Singh and General Sergei Shoygu, and external affairs ministers S. Jaishankar and Sergey Lavrov, as well as the first ever 2+2 meet between the two nations. The intergovernmental commission on military and technical cooperation will meet, too. The summit between Narendra Modi and Putin will be held at 5.30 pm at Hyderabad House. The two last met in person in 2019 in Brasilia for the BRICS Summit. They, however, have been in regular touch with each other over telephone and virtual meets. 

Putin's visit assumes significance in the changing global order, where India is balancing relations with a time-tested partner Russia and its new bestie, the US. India is part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which hasn't quite pleased Russia, though it has been careful not to comment too much. Russia, however, has been vocal about the Indo-Pacific, and though it has shown accordance with India's views on the Indo-Pacific, it still believes that the term itself is exclusionist. Lavrov, during his 2019 talk at the Raisina Dialogue in New Delhi, had been brutal in calling it a concept meant to keep out certain countries. India has balanced its membership in Quad with the Chennai Vladivostok Eastern Maritime Corridor, which it formalised with Russia in 2019. India insists that its cooperation with countries is issue-based and that it is certainly not part of any bloc. 

Although the India-Russia partnership has stood the test of time, there is an urgency on both sides to give the relationship its due importance and invest time and effort into it. Putin, significantly, is making this trip at a time when the epidemiological situation in his country is not good. The summit was postponed last year due to the pandemic, and there was an urgency to ensure it happens in a physical format this year. 

It is believed that important agreements, including the Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS), would be signed on Monday. RELOS is similar to LEMOA, which India and the US have inked, and allows for sharing logistics for its militaries. 

So what will the two leaders talk about on Monday? There is plenty to discuss, from China to Afghanistan, the pandemic and the bilateral itself, which is a multi-faceted one. Sources in the government say that India and Russia are on the same page regarding security concerns emerging from the changed situation in Kabul. During a telephonic call in August, the two leaders had agreed to be in close conversation regarding Afghanistan. China, too, is likely to be discussed, given India's dip in relations with Beijing after the Galwan clash of 2020. While India does not encourage a third party intervention in its bilateral affairs, Moscow had provided the space for both defence and external affairs ministers of India to meet their Chinese counterparts last September, during the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meet. The first agreement to mend ties had come about in Moscow. 

There are expected to be some agreements in economic and trade cooperation. India and Russia share a healthy trade tie; they met the target of a combined 30 billion USD investment in each other's countries ahead of schedule, so they have raised the target to 50 billion USD by 2025. For the upcoming Vibrant Gujarat meet in January 2022, India has invited the governors of all 11 provinces of Russia's Far East, a region where India feels there is scope for good investment in energy and manufacturing (steel and ceramics). Russia has a manpower shortage in the Far East and India sees a potential there, too. 

Defence and trade will take centrestage in the summit. Russia's S-400 anti-missile system is expected to arrive in India later this month. This purchase is significant. The US has imposed sanctions on Russia. India is now a military partner of the US, and has signed all the foundational military treaties with the US. Yet, India has managed to go ahead and make this purchase, which was decided before the pacts were inked. Russia is India's oldest military partner.