Till some months ago, the Congress projected the only three chief ministers it had as answers to issues related to COVID-19 management. They were at the forefront of the opposition's protest against the contentious farm laws. They were also the foremost critics of the manner in the Centre allegedly disregarded the states in deciding Goods and Services Tax.
Rajasthan, Punjab and Chhattisgarh are where Congress is in power on its own, and the chief ministers – Ashok Gehlot, Amarinder Singh and Bhupesh Baghel – had become the party's mascots in countering the Centre and showcasing the Congress's viewpoint.
However, the three chief ministers now find themselves fighting intense dissidence, with their inhouse rivals challenging their authority. The internecine wars also raise questions about the functioning of the Congress, such as whether the situation has arisen because of or despite the efforts of the party high command, and also if it would have larger repurcussions for the grand old party in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2024.
In Punjab, the chief minister is engaged in a public feud with state Congress president Navjot Singh Sidhu. A month after the party high command, displaying rare assertiveness, appointed Sidhu as the PCC chief in the face of stiff resistance from Amarinder Singh, the factional fight between the two has only intensified. With Assembly elections just a few months away, the presence of dual power centres could complicate matters further. There is confusion about who between the two weilds greater authority.
If round one of the fight went to Sidhu as he was given the charge of the party, round two, in the wake of the controversy over the comments made by Sidhu's advisers, has gone in Singh's favour. If the Sidhu camp claimed the support of around 30 MLAs for a demand to replace the former, the chief minister countered it with an impressive show of strength with a dinner that was attended by around 60 MLAs.
“As has been clarified by the party high command, the upcoming Assembly elections will be fought under the leadership of our chief minister Capt. Amarinder Singh. We are all united,” said Punjab cabinet minister Rana Gurmit Singh Sodhi, who is known to be close to Singh.
On the other hand, Pargat Singh, general secretary in-charge of Organisation, in the Punjab Congress and a Sidhu loyalist, differed. “It was made clear by the party two months ago that the election would be fought under the leadership of Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi,” he said.
Political observers say Singh cannot be expected to go down without a fight. He is believed to have succeeded in putting the focus on Sidhu's “immaturity” with regard to the choice of advisers. The Sidhu camp, however, claims that Singh, the AAP, the BJP and the Akalis are all ganging up against him.
“When Sidhu was declared PCC chief a month back, there was celebration among the party workers. But the euphoria has died down. Most MLAs are confused as to which side to align with,” said political scientist Harjeshwar Pal Singh.
The ruling party may still have the advantage of having a presence in both urban and rural areas unlike the Akalis or the AAP, which have their pockets of influence, but while it was the opposition that appeared to be in disarray till a few months back, it is the Congress now which needs to put its house in order.
Just as the Punjab infighting played out in Delhi a couple of months back, the power tussle in Chhattisgarh between CM Baghel and his cabinet colleague and staunch rival T.S. Singh Deo recently landed in the national capital. It was in this Hindi heartland state that the Congress had, in 2018, registered its most comprehensive victory, the other two triumphs being Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. At the heart of the fight is a purported agreement reached between Baghel and Dev, and former Congress resident Rahul Gandhi in 2018 that there would be rotational chief ministership in the state. The Congress government in the state completed mid-term in June this year, and Deo has sought to remind the party high command that it is now his turn to be chief minister.
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There was drama galore as Deo pitched his tent in Delhi, which was followed by Rahul calling Baghel to the national capital and meeting the two leaders. It appeared that there would be a leadership change in Chhattisgarh as Baghel was summoned to Delhi again shortly afterwards, but this time, over 50 MLAs arrived in the capital before him and declared their confidence in him. The chief minister has declared triumph over Deo, returning to Raipur to a grand welcome. However, according to party sources, the last word has not yet been spoken in the matter, and Baghel is said to be safe for the time being.
“The tussle is still on despite the crowds seen at the Raipur airport and the flashing of victory sign. The support is for CM Baghel and not for Baghel per se,” said a state Congress leader.
Devendra Yadav, Congress MLA from Bhilai City, and a known supporter of Baghel, said, “All of us MLAs have been following the direction shown by former Congress president Rahul Gandhi and working under the able leadership of our Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel. It is as per the direction shown by the party high command that the state government has been doing good work.”
According to party sources, what has worked in favour of Baghel for now is his identity as an OBC leader. Replacing him with Deo, who belongs to the royal family of Surguja and is a Thakur, would send a wrong message politically, especially at a time when the BJP is forcefully pursuing OBC politics and when elections are near, especially in Uttar Pradesh. It is also learnt that the utility of Baghel extends to areas such as mobilisation of resources and electoral coordination, as was done by him and his team in Assembly elections in Assam earlier this year.
However, according to a state leader, the leadership issue in Chhattisgarh is not a closed chapter. “Deo's claim has weakened. It has got diluted, if not dissipated completely. The issue could rear its head again at a later time,” he said.
After the party leadership asserted itself in Punjab with Sidhu's appointment as the PCC chief, hopes rose in Rajasthan among CM Gehlot's dissidents, led by his former deputy and arch-rival Sachin Pilot, of their much-pending rehabilitation in the power set-up happening soon.
It has been over a year since Pilot and his loyalist MLAs called off their rebellion against the Gehlot government after getting an assurance from the party high command that their concerns would be taken care of. A primary demand was expanding the state cabinet and carrying out political appointments, the two exercises benefiting Pilot supporters.
After the Punjab decision, it did look like the party high command was focusing on Rajasthan, with Ajay Maken, AICC general secretary in-charge of party affairs in the state, holding several rounds of meetings with Gehlot in Jaipur. Maken also carried out one-to-one interactions with MLAs on issues such as the functioning of the state government, the ministers and what needed to be done to win the elections in 2023.
However, Gehlot, although he is under pressure to make concessions to the Pilot camp, is in no hurry to do so. There have been, in the past few months, numerous deadlines for the cabinet to be expanded, and the most recent was August 15. With the chief minister recently undergoing angioplasty, the exercise is expected to get further delayed.
What sets Gehlot apart from Amarinder Singh is that he is numerically on a stronger wicket. Also, elections in Rajasthan are due in 2023, unlike Punjab, where the polls will be held in a few months. Also, he has solidified his position vis-a-vis the Gandhis, emerging as their main supporter in the face of the dissent expressed by the 'G23' leaders, and he knows that the central leadership, in recognition of his utility value, will be wary of pushing him too far.
The dissidents, on the other hand, have been quiet for some time, waiting for the assurances given by the party high command to be implemented. “This is not the right time for raising our demands since the chief minister is recovering from a heart procedure. However, if the party high command has said that there will soon be a cabinet expansion, we expect the chief minister to be seriously pursuing it,” said a leader from the Pilot camp.
The chaos in the three state units reflects on the Gandhis, and questions are being asked about whether a weakened central leadership is finding it difficult to discipline the state leaders. The Gandhis asserted themselves in Punjab but are failing to control the constant sniping between Singh and Sidhu. They were forced to acknowledge the utility of Baghel in Chhattisgarh and beyond. And they have had little success so far in getting Gehlot to do the needful in Rajasthan.
What makes the infighting in the three states a matter of concern for the party is that they will see polls in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2024. If Punjab goes to polls in 2022, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh will see Assembly elections in 2023, just ahead of the next general elections.
It is all the more important for the Congress to set its house in order in the states since it is trying to assert its primacy in the opposition bloc and questions are being raised by regional players about the party being in disarray.
