The Assam electorate has spoken. It has reposed faith in the incumbent BJP government. The CM Sarbananda Sonowal-Himanta Biswa Sarma combine managed to blunt the anger over the citizenship law to its favour, and turned the narrative against the Congress and AIUDF combine. The big question being asked now is who will be chief minister—Sonowal or Sarma?
As the trends showed, the BJP and its allies have managed to cross the halfway mark in the 126-member assembly. BJP retaining Assam has come as huge relief for the saffron camp. In the neighbouring West Bengal, the party could not dislodge Mamata Banerjee.
The BJP's pitch was based around two messages. One was the development work the state government had carried out in last five years, managing to benefit a huge section of population through Central and state government schemes. Secondly, what benefited the party was that anti-CAA sentiment had dimmed during 2020 as pandemic stopped all agitations. The BJP then painted the Congress and Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF alliance as against the state's ethnic sensibilities, calling them “Mughals.”
By 3pm, seven hours after the counting started, the BJP managed to gain 31.90 per cent votes, while the Congress had got 28.7. The BJP was leading in 57 seats, its allies Assam Gana Parishad in 11, and United People's Party Liberal in 8 seats. Congress was leading in 28 seats, its ally AIUDF in 14 seats, CPI(M) and BPF in one each.
The early trends indicated that the Congress and AIUDF alliance did not help both these parties. Instead the counter polarisation around Hindutva appeared to have helped the BJP. The Congress had relied on a low-key campaign as compared to BJP's high-pitched campaign. The party had not declared a CM candidate, instead fighting under collective leadership. The takeaway from Assam elections is that the Congress, on its own, without a clear candidate as CM face, has not been able to stop the BJP.
The big question before the BJP will be who should be the chief minister in the state. Himanta Biswa Sarma had launched a high-pitched campaign for the BJP which caught people's attention. As the BJP did not declare Sonowal as the CM candidate, it was left open to interpretation that Sarma would get the top post. Now, when BJP has won decisively won the elections, will Sonowal return for a second term? He is is first tribal CM of the state to complete full term. The saffron party may have to find a strong reason to replace him as he retains a good image. But, it is Sarma who has the image of a doer, an aggressive politician who takes hard decisions.
Another key takeaway from these election trends is that the new regional outfits set up on eve of the elections—born in response to CAA—have not done well. Lurinjyoti Gogoi, the All Assam Students Union general secretary who formed a new party, was trailing from two seats he contested. Meanwhile, Akhil Gogoi, who was in alliance with Lurinjyoti's party, was leading from his seat. Akhil Gogoi is currently in jail for holding anti-CAA agitation.
