MP bypolls: Despite Chambal trail, Scindia camp comfortable in BJP surge

The ruling party looks set to win 19-20 seats out of 28

BJP supporters react during counting day of Madhya Pradesh Assembly bypolls, at party HQ in Bhopal | PTI BJP supporters react during counting day of Madhya Pradesh Assembly bypolls, at party HQ in Bhopal | PTI

Despite trailing in the Chambal region, the Jyotiraditya Scindia camp looks quite comfortable as the BJP surged ahead in Madhya Pradesh bypolls, looking set to win 19 or 20 out of 28 seats as the result started coming in late on Tuesday afternoon.

The saffron party has almost swept the bypolls, save for trailing in five to six seats out of the seven in the Chambal region, one in Agar of Agar Malwa district and one in Biaora of Rajgarh district. 

However, almost all the BJP candidates in core Scindia turf of Gwalior, Guna and Ashok Nagar districts (Gwalior region) – that together make up for nine seats - looked set to sail through comfortably.

Only minister Imarti Devi (Dabra) who was in the eye of a storm due to ex-chief minister Kamal Nath’s alleged ‘item’ jibe was leading only with a slender margin (512 votes) even by 4.30pm. The only other Gwalior region that was witnessing a see-saw trend was Bhander in Datia district where a tough fight was on between Dalit leader and Congress candidate Phool Singh Baraiya and Raksha Saronia of the BJP.

All the candidates in Scindia turf are ex-MLAs of the Congress who switched over to the saffron party in March this year to architect the fall of the Kamal Nath government.

Also, Scindia’s other three most trusted lieutenants—Tulsiram Silawat (Sanwer) and Govind Rajput (Surkhi) who resigned as ministers just ahead of the bypolls voting as they had completed six months term without being elected MLAs, and Prabhuram Choudhary in Sanchi—also looked set to win comfortably.

In all, 10 out of the 12 ministers (and both ex-ministers) who were in the fray were on a winning trail.

Political watchers feel that the win and lead trends indicate that the people had stamped the decision of Scindia to switch over to the BJP and to get the defectors ministerial berths in Shivraj Chouhan cabinet. Of the 31-member Chouhan cabinet expanded in July this year, 14 ministers were those who had crossed over from the Congress. It also indicates that the BJP could win over the internal discontent of its leaders and workers and chart out a comfortable winning situation.

Political watchers also feel that the ‘bikau-tikau’ (saleable-reliable) narrative of the Congress seemed to work only in the Chambal region that is known for its strong stands for ideologies and principles. 

In Chambal region, the BJP was trailing in three out of five seats in Morena district with the Congress leading in two (Sumawali and Dimni) and the BSP in one (Morena). In Bhind district, the Congress was leading in Gohad seat whereas the BJP was leading in Mehgaon despite early fright.

According to the Election Commission of India, only one result was out officially by 4.00 pm, with Narayan Patel, who switched over to the BJP from the Congress in July this year, defeating his Congress rival Uttam Pal Singh by a comfortable margin of 2,2129 votes.

Though the results were not yet officially declared, six more BJP candidates – ministers Prabhuram Choudhary (Sanchi), Hardeep Singh (Suwasra), Rajvardhan Singh Dattigaon (Badnawar), Bisahulal Singh (Anuppur) and another candidate Sumitra Devi Kasdekar (Nepanagar)—had already won the polls at the time this report was filed.

Key constituencies trend at 4.30pm: 

Surkhi (Sagar): Ex-minister Govind Rajput (BJP) leading against s ex-MLA Parul Sahu (Congress; formerly of BJP)

Sanwer (Indore): Ex-minister Tulsi Silawat (BJP) leading against ex-MP Premchand Guddu (Congress/ joined BJP for a period and rejoined Congress)

Dabra (Gwalior): Minister Imarti Devi (BJP) leading with slender margin against Suresh Raje (Congress; formerly of BJP)

Gwalior (Gwalior): Minister Pradyumna Singh Tomar (BJP) leading against Congress district unit president Sunil Sharma

Bhander (Datia): Raksha Saronia (BJP) leading with slender margin against Phool Singh Baraiya (Congress; senior dalit leader who was a mainstay in BSP for a long time)

Sumawali (Morena): Minister Aindal Singh Kansana (BJP) trailing against Ajab Singh Kushwaha (Congress; ex-BJP candidate in 2018 polls and ex-BSP leader)

Hatpipalya (Dewas): Manoj Choudhary (BJP) leading against Rajvir Singh Baghel (Congress)

📣 The Week is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@TheWeekmagazine) and stay updated with the latest headlines