Timely by-polls in Madhya Pradesh only if situation normalises by July end: Ex-CEC Rawat

Prediction of peaking of COVID-19 in June-July keeps political parties guessing

Former chief election commissioner O.P. Rawat Former chief election commissioner O.P. Rawat

The continuing surge in cases of COVID-19 in Madhya Pradesh and across the country and the prediction that the pandemic might peak in June-July has put a question mark on the timely conduct of the crucial by-polls in the state.

In the normal circumstances, the by-polls should be held within six months of the seats falling vacant and by that norm, for 22 out of 24 vacant seats, the election process should be complete before September 10 as the ex-Congress MLAs had resigned from these seats on March 10.

However, the by-elections for the two other vacant seats should be completed even earlier – by June 21 and July 30 respectively, as the Jaura seat fell vacant with the death of Congress MLA Banwarilal Sharma on December 21, 2019 and Agar seat on January 30 with death of BJP MLA Manohar Untwal.

While keeping the date for these two vacant seats seems impossible as of now, there is question mark even on the 22 other seats. The by-polls are crucial, especially for the BJP, as it has to win at least 10 out of the 24 seats to be able to hold on to the government on its own. The party currently has 107 seats in the 230-member Assembly.

Former chief election commissioner (CEC) of India, O.P. Rawat, while talking to THE WEEK, said that timely by-polls (for the 22 seats) are possible only if situation normalises by July end. This is because the election process normally takes 45 days to complete from the date of announcement.

He further said that if timely completion of the process did not look possible in the current unprecedented situation, the Election Commission of India has the powers to defer the elections under the provisions of Section 153 of Representation of the People Act, 1951.

“The polls could be deferred till the time situation is normal and it is feasible to hold the elections,” Rawat said, adding that once situation is normal, state machinery could be mobilised within ten days for holding the elections.

But given the COVID-19 situation in the country and the state, the likelihood of situation normalising even by July end does not look possible. Last week, the director of AIIMS, Delhi, Dr Randeep Guleria had said that on the basis of modelling data and the way cases were increasing, the peak of COVID-19 in the country was likely in June-July.

In Madhya Pradesh, it took only five days for the cases to increase from 4000 to over 5000. As on May 19, the state has 5,465 positive cases and 258 deaths. Though most of the by-polls are expected in Gwalior-Chambal areas that have been declared green zone by the state government for the fourth lockdown period, cases continue to be reported in Gwalior and Bhind districts.

Main political parties, the BJP and the Congress—while saying that they are prepared for the by-polls at any time—are keeping their fingers crossed for them to be on schedule.

BJP spokesman Rajneesh Agrawal said that the ECI is yet to say anything about even the deferred Rajya Sabha polls ((scheduled originally in April, 2020) that have limited mass contact scope, so it is difficult to say anything about the ECI decision on by-polls that will entail far greater mass contact.

“As a party we are ready for the polls any time and the decision on schedule is for the ECI to take. We are watching out for the Rajya Sabha poll announcement whenever it comes, to guess the position on by-polls. Also whenever the polls are held, there would be very different do's and don'ts for the campaign and polling process for sure,” Agrawal said.

Congress leader and ex-minister P.C. Sharma said that though the situation is in control in Gwalior-Chambal region where most of the by-polls are scheduled, one will have to wait until current lockdown phase is over to have a clarity on the situation. He also said that since ECI is yet to take a call on Rajya Sabha elections that were deferred in April, the by-polls will come only after that. “We are however ready for the polls,” Sharma said.

The most eager for the by-polls schedule might be newly appointed ministers of Jyotiraditya Scindia camp Tulsiram Silawat and Govind Rajput. Both have resigned their seats and were made ministers on April 21. They will have to get elected by October 21, 2020, to be able to hold on to their ministerial berths, according to the rule.