10 points: Maharashtra, Haryana polls a litmus test for Congress in more ways than one

The Congress has been facing one electoral downturn after another

49-A-supporter-waves-the-Congress-flag Representational image

Single-phase assembly elections will be held in Maharashtra and Haryana tomorrow, and the BJP will take on the Congress-led opposition to retain power in both the states. The counting of votes will be taken up on October 24. The term of the 288-member Maharashtra assembly ends on November 9 and that of the 90-member Haryana assembly on November 2. The assembly elections are the first after Prime Minister Narendra Modi led the BJP to power at the Centre for a second term in May.

The government's decision to abrogate Article 370 provisions, which gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir, and the NRC were among the BJP campaign's key themes for the assembly polls. In 2014, in Maharashtra, the BJP had won 122 seats and the Sena 63 seats. They joined hands after the polls to form the government. In Haryana, the BJP had won 47 seats, while the Indian National Lok Dal, once the saffron party's ally, won 19 seats. The Congress won 15. While most of the political conversation focuses on the BJP and its prospects, here are 20 points as to why these elections will be a litmus test for the Congress, its allies, and other opposition parties.

1.  An analysis by Livemint found that while Modi addressed 25 rallies across both the states, the Congress fell far behind. Sonia Gandhi attended none—her Mahendragarh rally scheduled for Friday fell through at the last minute. Rahul attended seven, while Priyanka was highly conspicuous by her absence. Modi’s super-charged addresses were a lesson in contrast. In Haryana, Modi spoke about stopping water flowing into Pakistan for third time in a row. “Earlier, there used to be bomb blasts in the country. Haven't they been stopped now? Now, terrorist are killed in their homes. Those who nurture terrorism are crying in front of the world,” he said. Home Minister Amit Shah was an equally tenacious supporting hand. In Maharashtra, he said, “There are only two countries in the world who avenge killings of their soldiers, the USA and Israel. Now, we have shown India is the third country added to that list.” Will the lethargy lose Congress votes?

2. There is a listlessness in the Congress party, as if they have already conceded defeat in both the states. But, victories for the BJP will have huge ramifications at the national level too. Come 2020, and eight Rajya Sabha seats—six from Maharashtra, including the one held by Nationalist Congress Party president Sharad Pawar—will fall vacant. If the BJP is able to win both the states by a good margin, it would win at least five seats in the upper house, thereby significantly boosting the Union government’s ability to pass crucial bills. A Congress victory, on the other hand, will not only improve its Rajya Sabha numbers, but also help revive the grand old party at the national level. Having Mumbai, India’s financial capital, under its control can revive the Congress and the NCP organisationally as well.

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3. In Maharashtra, Congress has been facing a steep downward slide across crucial regions for years now. In the highly industrialised Mumbai-Thane regions, the BJP is now breathing down the necks of its alliance partner Shiv Sena—the two parties won 20 and 23 seats respectively in 2014—after reducing the Congress to a paltry 5. In Mumbai, the Congress saw its tally descend from double digits to a mere 2 in 2014. In Vidarbha, one of the most underdeveloped regions, the BJP won almost 45 seats in 2014, while the Congress found its number more than halved to 10. In Marathwada, infamous for droughts and farmer suicides, BJP-Shiv Sena combined won around 25 of the 48 seats, reducing the Congress, again, to single digits (9). Will the grand old party be able to stem the regression?

4. Will the Congress be able to take advantage of the many faultlines in the BJP-Shiv Sena campaigns in Maharashtra, with hostility brimming just below the surface? Take the case of Konkan. In three assembly constituencies—Kudal, Kankavli, Sawantwadi—the BJP is in direct competition with Shiv Sena candidates and vice versa.  Electorally, the Sena and BJP are engaged in friendly fights or facing rebel menace in at least six constituencies—Kudal, Kankavli, Sawantwadi, Kalyan West, Kalyan East and Boisar. In Kalyan West, BJP MLA Narendra Pawar, who lost out on his constituency after it went to the Sena in the seat-sharing agreement, will contest as a rebel amid reported discontent in the BJP base. In Kalyan East, the situation is reversed, with Sena rebel Dhananjay Bhodare competing against BJP’s Ganpat Gaikwad. In Latur’s Ausa, the Congress has the upper hand after the BJP and Shiv Sena swapped Latur Rural and Ausa, resulting in mass public demonstrations by both cadres. The Times of India reported that the number of BJP-Sena rebels competing the elections could rise to as much as 100. This, in the worst case scenario, has the potential to pour cold water on the saffron alliance’s dream to beat incumbency.

5. Both the Congress and the NCP have been hit by massive defections pre-elections, sparking a question as to the magnitude of distrust the regional leaders and local cadres have in the Central leadership. From the Congress' camp, sitting MLAs Nirmala Gavit, Bhausaheb Kambale and Abdul Sattar have joined the Shiv Sena while former minister Harshvardhan Patil, and MLAs Kalidas Kolambkar and Jaykumar Gore have crossed over to the BJP. All the sitting legislators have tendered their resignations as members of the Legislative Assembly or the Legislative Council. Former Mumbai Congress president Kripashankar Singh, a north Indian leader who wields clout in some pockets in the city, has also quit the party. Though he has not opened his cards on his future political move, speculation is that he might cross over to the BJP.

6. Before 2014 elections, a government led by the Congress and the NCP had been in power for 15 years in Maharashtra. Prior to that the state was traditionally ruled by the Congress. In the last polls, the BJP emerged as the single largest party winning 122 out of the total 288 seats while the Sena, which contested separately, won 63. In Maharashtra, the Congress is left with one single, overarching question: if they cannot reverse the trends, will the party at least be able to stem the rot?

7. Before the elections, the Congress announced their Haryana face as former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda, who was then stuck in a bitter factional feud with former unit president Ashok Tanwar. In the run-up to the October 21 polls, Hooda exerted pressure on the party's central leadership, making it replace Ashok Tanwar with Kumari Selja as the party's Haryana unit president. The party reposed its faith in Hooda, leading to an angry walkout and public demonstrations by Tanwar. Now, Hooda—enmeshed in scam allegations and fresh off an embarrassing Lok Sabha poll defeat—faces one of the biggest tests of his life. He is seeking re-election from his home constituency Garhi-Sampla-Kiloi in Rohtak district. Thirteen candidates are in the fray for this Jat-dominated seat—a caste section which has majorly embraced the BJP in the recent times—with over two lakh voters. Has the party placed all of its eggs in the right basket?

Bhupinder Singh Hooda to kick off rally, announce future plans today

8. The Congress faces the dangerous prospect of utter elimination in Haryana. The BJP won a stunning victory in the 2014 Assembly election, coming to power for the first time in Haryana, where it had been a 'third place' player for decades. In that election, the BJP, effectively, swapped places with the Congress, which had ruled Haryana for two straight terms. In the subsequent sweeping 2019 Lok Sabha victory, the Congress was washed out in the state and the BJP had breached even the traditional bastions of its opponents. Both Hooda, who fought from Sonipat, and his son and three-time MP Deepender Singh Hooda, who contested from Rohtak, lost. If south Haryana was on BJP's target in the last polls, it has now set its eyes on the Jat-dominated Deswali region, comprising Rohtak, Jhajjar and Sonipat districts, from where Congress had won the most seats in 2014. Will the Congress party be able to prove critics wrong?

9. Congress chief spokesperson Randeep Singh Surjewala is determined to win in Haryana’s Kaithal, his stronghold, after an embarrassing defeat in Jind bypolls earlier this year. Surjewala—like Hooda—had announced his campaign in Kaithal would revolve around local issues, and his own work, even as the BJP has sought to highlight the abrogation of Article 370 and demands for an NRC update in Haryana. The BJP, for instance, is playing up the issues of nationalism in Hooda’s Garhi-Sampla-Kiloi constituency, citing the fact that nearly 70 per cent of area families have at least one member who is in the military. In this highly charged election cycle, whose messaging will the common public accept? Did the Congress commit a political error of not pushing back enough on those same topics?

10. To deal with constituencies in Haryana like Dadri and Baroda, the BJP had skilfully brought into its fold popular sportspersons like wrestler Babita Phogat (of Dangal fame) and Olympic medal-winning fighter Yogeshwar Dutt. With Phogat, the BJP is planning to reel in the notoriously anti-incumbent Dadri, while Dutt is contesting in the one assembly seat from Sonipat Lok Sabha constituency where Congress led in the general elections. There is a distinct lack of similar initiatives from the Congress. Will it cost the party big?