Since perception is the calling card of politics, the seventh phase of polling in the state holds the most prestige value as both the country’s prime minister and the state’s chief minister are in the fray, the latter albeit indirectly.
Of the 13 seats for which votes shall be cast on Sunday, the most noteworthy contests are in Varanasi from where Narendra Modi is contesting and Gorakhpur―a seat won five times by incumbent CM Yogi Adityanath but lost when it went to the bypoll in 2018. This is a phase deemed to be comfortable for the BJP as it had won all its seats in 2014. Yet the party did not let up its campaign in the last phase with the party President Amit Shah giving the state as much importance as West Bengal.
What might work for the BJP is the chinks in the Alliance that are becoming visible. In Ghazipur, for instance, there was an open scuffle between workers with chairs flying from both sides. The BSP workers have been expressing their displeasure at the choice of candidates thrust upon them in the name of the Alliance. BSP President Mayawati spoke of the need for SP workers to learn from her more disciplined force. What also works is the party’s hope that the Narendra Modi effect will sweep through all the seats. In Mirzapur, from where Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare Anupriya Patel (Apna Dal) is in the fray, a consolidation of the Kurmi votes will work for the party. In Ghazipur, from where Union Minister Manoj Sinha is fighting, the party seems likely to trump caste calculations as Sinha is receiving support on the basis of the work he has done in his constituency. In the seats at large, BJP is hoping to capitalise on the dialogue that the benefits of its flagship schemes like Ujjwala and SBM have gone in large numbers to the non-Yadav, non-Jatav voters who should support it.
What might not work for the party is candidate selection in some seats (for example the sitting MP Rajesh Pandey was denied a ticket in Kushinagar from where the party’s battle has been made tougher by RPN Singh of the Congress).
ALSO READ
- ‘Stone pelting, beheading of soldiers would have continued if Cong was in power: Modi
- ‘Everyone will regret it…’: PM Modi accuses opposition of spreading lies on electoral bonds
- What the fish! Tejashwi Yadav's meal on helicopter snowballs into major political controversy
- Congress’s poll manifesto bears ‘imprint of Muslim League’, says PM Modi
- Fighting big battle against corrupt, won't be intimidated by attacks: PM Modi at Meerut rally
This is a phase where smaller outfits will also have a large impact on the final tallies. Shivpal Yadav, Mulayam’s brother has floated the Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party, in alliance with the Peace Party which had a vote count of over a lakh from Domariyaganj in the last election. The Quami Ekta Dal, which is now with the BSP, had polled over 1.5 lakh votes in two seats. The Bhartiya Samaj Suheldev had put up a decent showing in the Salempur seat and it has now fielded candidates from 30 seats and mounted a strong anti-BJP campaign.
The Varanasi contest is largely seen as one-sided, but it is the margin of victory that is debatable. While Narendra Modi had 5.81 lakh votes in 2014, Arvind Kejriwal who came second had 2.09 lakh votes. This vote is seen to have come largely from the constituency’s Muslim population which numbers around 3.5 lakhs. This time jailed don Atique Ahmed was in the fray for a bit and this could have led to polarisation of the Muslim vote. But with him withdrawing, the Muslim vote is likely to split up. Had the Congress and the Alliance supported a common candidate, a tough fight could have happened. While the Congress candidate was a last-minute selection after a fortnight of speculation on Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s possible entry, the SP candidate is a standby Tej Bahadur Yadav (a BSF jawan who lost his job after he posted videos about the poor quality of food available to the forces) whose papers were rejected.
In Gorakhpur, the contest has been made tougher by the BJP’s bypoll loss of 20,000 votes. Bhojpuri film star Ravi Kishan, who is the party’s candidate, did not have the support of the local unit till repeated interventions by Yogi. Since the bypoll loss was attributed to many traditional BJP voters not having voted due to over confidence in their party, this time the focus is on getting the BJP voter out so that there are no surprises. The Alliance candidate Ram Bhual Nishad is a popular local leader with a good grasp of locally relevant issues such as Japanese encephalitis.
The Congress will be impacted by the statement of its UP in-charge Priyanka Gandhi Vadra that where the party is not in a winning position, it has such candidates which can eat into the Congress vote. This has led to a measure of disappointment among some candidates and their supporters. Some of the latter have worked behind the scenes to ensure the victory of the SP-BSP Alliance candidate.
