Will results in Mandya, Mysuru decide future of JD(S)-Congress govt?

Fourteen of the 28 constituencies in Karnataka went to polls on Thursday in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections. The polls in the South Karnataka region perhaps hold the key to the success and longevity of the JD(S)-Congress coalition government in the state.

These 14 constituencies recorded a slightly higher overall voting percentage of 68.05 per cent, compared with 67.76 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. While Mandya recorded the highest rate of polling with 80.23 per cent, Bengaluru North had the lowest turnout at 51.21 per cent. The IT city once again failed to register a good voter turnout. Bengaluru Central (50.84 per cent), Bengaluru South (54.20 per cent) and Bengaluru Rural (64.09 per cent) were far behind, compared with other districts.

The JD(S)-Congress combine took on the BJP in all 14 seats by fielding alliance candidates (10 from the Congress and four from the JD(S)). The alliance is banking on its combined vote share of 51.8 per cent against the BJP's 43 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and 56.3 per cent against 36.2 per cent of the BJP in the 2018 assembly elections. The BJP, which has six sitting MPs in the south Karnataka region, fielded 13 candidates and extended support to veteran actor Sumalata Ambareesh, an independent candidate contesting from Mandya.

The BJP is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity and the infighting within the JD(S)-Congress alliance to win a good number of seats.

A big challenge to the JD(S)-Congress alliance is the fact that they are old foes. Having fought fierce battles in the last three decades, the coming together of arch-rivals to share power in the state, after the May 2018 assembly handed out a fractured verdict, was perhaps a political compulsion to the leaders of both parties. But the decision has not enthused the grass-roots workers of the parties. The growing animosity and the hostilities in the Old Mysuru region might have just scuttled the dream run of the allies, it is feared.

The high-voltage battle in the bellwether constituencies of Mandya and Mysuru showed tell-tale signs that all is not well between the allies. While the JD(S) suspects that the Congress is supporting Sumalata Ambareesh who is pitched against Nikhil Gowda, the son of Chief Minister H.D. Kumaraswamy, the Congress has warned that the defeat of Mysuru alliance candidate Vijayshankar will be construed as "sabotage" (by the JD(S)). Coordination committee chief and former chief minister Siddaramaiah hinted that the stability of the coalition would be at stake, if the JD(S) did not join hands with the Congress in Mysuru.

"I have nothing to lose as I am only an MLA. JD(S) has much at stake as you (JD(S)) are the chief minister, ministers. You should decide how to save the coalition," said Siddaramaiah on the last day of campaigning, perhaps sensing the continued hostility.

The trigger for the hostilities was the defeat of Siddaramaiah in Chamundeshwari (Mysuru) in the last Assembly elections, which the Congress suspects was due to Vokkaliga mobilisation against the Congress by the JD(S). The stakes are too high as former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda and his grandsons Nikhil (contesting from Mandya) and Prajwal Revanna (Hassan), like most alliance candidates, are on a shaky wicket.

The situation seemed to have eased after two massive joint rallies lead by Congress chief Rahul Gandhi and JD(S) patriarch Deve Gowda were held in the region to call for a truce and send out a message of unity.

The south Karnataka battle is decisive for the grand alliance plans of the Congress. That explains why Deputy Chief Minister G. Parameshwara put his might behind the campaign in Tumkur, where Deve Gowda finally landed after a long hunt for a "safe" seat (he vacated Hassan—his old constituency for his grandson).

Tumkur is the lone seat where a sitting Congress MP (Mudduhanume Gowda) was denied a ticket and this has caused heartburn for the local Congress leaders. The seat-sharing arrangement (20 for Congress and eight for JD(S)) between the allies saw the former Congress MLA from Udupi Pramod Madhwaraj contest on a JD(S) ticket, while JD(S) ceded it's eighth seat—Bengaluru North—back to the Congress, citing lack of a candidate. Here, State Minister Krishna Byregowda (Congress) is pitted against sitting BJP MP and Union minister D.V. Sadananda Gowda.

The first phase has kindled a lot of interest as the parties have fielded fresh faces too. Bengaluru South constituency, which was represented by BJP MP and Union minister late H.N. Ananthkumar, will witness Congress veteran B.K. Hariprasad fight political greenhorn Tejasvi Surya (28) of the BJP. In Bengaluru Central, the Congress has fielded MLC Rizwan Arshad against sitting BJP MP P.C. Mohan. Arshad is testing his luck a second time. Actor Prakash Raj too is in the fray in the constituency.

The future of the JD(S)-Congress coalition government sure rests on the performance of the allies in the Old Mysuru region as rebellion and resistance to the alliance might be the spoiler for the coalition partners.