After Mayawati's snub, Congress to face hard bargain from regional parties

When BSP supremo Mayawati declared recently that her party would not ally with the Congress “at any cost” in the upcoming round of assembly elections, Congress leaders in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh accused her of ditching the principal opposition party under pressure from the BJP. They claimed that the ruling dispensation at the Centre had used corruption cases to pressurise the BSP chief.

The state Congress leaders said Mayawati demanding an unreasonable number of seats was also something that have helped the BJP since her party was only a marginal player in these states and was not in a position to win many of the constituencies she had demanded. By not allying with the Congress, she has opened up the possibility of a split in the opposition vote bank, the Congress leaders said.

However, while the Congress's reaction to Mayawati's grand snub has mainly focused on the BJP angle, it has also been pointed out that she had allied with the saffron party in the past. The understanding among some of the Congress leaders is that Mayawati has demonstrated that she cannot be taken for granted.

The upcoming assembly elections are crucial for the Congress as the outlook for the Lok Sabha polls would depend a lot on its outcome. However, Mayawati has claimed that her support to the grand old party would come at a hefty cost. “She asked for too many seats. It was unreasonable. And even when the BSP lowered its demand, many of the seats that it demanded were such that the party have never won from there,” said a senior Congress leader.

It is felt that Mayawati has made hard-nosed political calculations, keeping the interests of her party in mind, rather than getting carried away by the talk of the opposition parties coming together to defeat the BJP. She seems to be driven by the thought that it would suit her party if the Congress does not do well in the assembly elections. In a close contest, the BSP might be called upon to pitch in to help with numbers to form the government. And if the Congress does not have a good outing in the state polls, its stature in the opposition grouping vis-a-vis the Lok Sabha elections would be lowered. If the Congress's bargaining power as a national party would be reduced, it would also have an impact on its claims for the prime ministerial post.

A senior Congress leader said it should not be forgotten that Mayawati has always been wary of allying with the party as she fears that her dalit vote bank might shift back to the Congress which had enjoyed the support of the community before it deposed its faith in the BSP.

The Samajwadi Party, which has little presence in Madhya Pradesh, also called off its talks for an alliance with the Congress, with party president Akhilesh Yadav saying, “We have waited too long for the Congress. How much longer should we wait?” Earlier, against the backdrop of the problems in the Congress-BSP seat-sharing talks, he had said that the Congress needs to be more accommodating for the cause of the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance). In the electorally crucial Uttar Pradesh, where the Congress has a very little to offer, the idea of formation of an opposition alliance is so far not in the picture.

The message for the Congress from the regional players is that they will not desist from cutting it down to size and that they are set to drive a hard bargain in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections, even as the principal opposition party would want to contest maximum seats.