Maharashtra is the land where the first meetings of the Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), and the Shiv Sena were held. The state was ruled for several decades by the Congress, and then by the Congress-NCP alliance for 15 years. The BJP, which came to power for the first time by riding on the Modi wave in 2014, is not too sure of itself at a time when the Lok Sabha-Assembly elections are just a year away. Getting a majority in a large state like Maharashtra is necessary to retain the power at the Centre.
Dwindling confidence
The BJP camp does not have the self-confidence it had when it came to power in 2014. There are four reasons for this: 1) The alliance partner Shiv Sena is on a warpath with the BJP. 2) The Congress and the NCP, which had parted ways before the last Assembly elections, have now reunited. 3) The Modi wave is no more. 4) The prominent community of Marathas as well as the farmers are dissatisfied with the state government.
The BJP has been resorting to various tactics to sideline the Shiv Sena ever since it wrested power in Maharashtra. The BJP-Shiv Sena power struggle is still on even as there is just one year to go for the next elections. Even at a time when the BJP is being defeated in byelections all across the country and the Congress is striving to forge an anti-BJP alliance nationally, the Shiv Sena has refused to budge. The Palghar bypoll is the latest example.
What happened in Palghar
Byelection in Palghar Lok Sabha constituency was necessitated by the death of Chinthaman Vanga of the BJP. Vanga, with the support of the Shiv Sena, had won with a margin of 2.39 lakh votes. In the byelection, the rebelling Shiv Sena fielded Srinivas Vanga, son of Chinthaman Vanga. The BJP made efforts to mollify Shiv Sena but in vain. Sena chief Udhav Thackeray had announced in January 2018 that his party would contest all elections alone.
The BJP won the Palghar byelection in which the Congress, Shiv Sena, Bahujan Vikas Aghadi and CPI(M) were also in the fray. However, BJP’s majority was reduced to 28,474 votes. While the Shiv Sena demonstrated its strength by gaining the second position, the Congress suffered a severe setback. Congress candidate Damu Shingde, a five-time MP, was relegated to the fifth place.
In the byelection to the Bhandara-Gondia Lok Sabah constituency in the Vidarbha region, it was a direct fight between the BJP and the NCP supported by the Congress. The byelection was necessitated by the resignation of Nana Patole from the Lok Sabha as well as from the BJP, alleging that the policies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi are anti-farmer. Patole returned to the Congress. The NCP wrested the Bhandara-Gondia Lok Sabah seat from the BJP in the byelection.
The results of the Palghar and Bhandara-Gondia Lok Sabah byelections point to this: The BJP wins when several parties fight separately, but loses when the party is up against a common candidate. The BJP gets the jitters when the Congress and the NCP fight unitedly and the Shiv Sena stood firm in its decision to fight it out alone. The BJP is now keen to forge an alliance with the Shiv Sena ahead of the upcoming Assembly-Lok Sabha elections. BJP president Amit Shah visited Udhav Thackeray at his residence in Mumbai on Wednesday. Maharashtra Chief Minister and BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis is ready to make compromises with Sena even after his party was challenged by the latter in Palghar. He has suggested to the BJP’s state leadership to try for an alliance with the Shiv Sena ahead of the coming elections.
Despite having been the BJP’s ally for long and having 18 MPs, the Shiv Sena has only one Minister at the Centre, Anant Gite, who is in charge of the comparatively less important Ministry of Heavy Industries. In its attempt to pacify the Shiv Sena, the BJP may promise the party one more cabinet berth as well as the post of the vice-chairman of the Rajya Sabha. However, it remains to be seen whether the Sena would accept that offer given that the remaining tenure of the present government at the Centre is hardly one year. The Shiv Sena’s newspaper made it clear—on the very day that Amit Shah arrived to meet Udhav Thackeray—that the Sena would go it alone in the coming elections.
Shiv Sena’s stand
The Shiv Sena is likely to get more adamant if a situation arises in which an alliance becomes the need of the BJP and the conditions are unfavourable to it. While the idea of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was taking shape, the unwritten understanding between Bal Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan was “Maharashtra for the Shiv Sena; Shiv Sena’s support to the BJP outside the state.” The Sena might demand a revival of this understanding.
There are two deferring opinions within the Shiv Sena regarding its alliance with the BJP. While the party MLAs and MPs argue that an alliance with the BJP is necessary for continuing in power, Legislative Council members, Rajya Sabha members and a section of the local leaders insist that the party should prove its strength by contesting elections on its own.
Having an upper hand in Maharashtra, a state which sends 48 members to the Lok Sabha, is crucial for the BJP. The seat position in 2014 was: BJP-23; Shiv Sena-18; NCP-4; Congress-2; and Swabhimani Paksha-1.
Congress silent
While the BJP and the Shiv Sena are in the limelight, the voice of the Congress is barely heard in Maharashtra. The Congress had failed to organise agitations on issues such as crisis in agriculture, reservation to Marathas, hike in oil prices, and the financial depression in the country’s commercial capital caused by demonetisation and GST. The Congress in Maharashtra also suffers from the dearth of leaders who can sway the public. In this regard, the BJP has scored well. Devendra Fadnavis is in the forefront of efficient BJP chief ministers.
This article was originally published in the Malayala Manorama daily on June 7, 2018.