The upcoming byelections in Uttar Pradesh, especially to the parliamentary seat of Kairana, will be an acid test of the opposition’s unity against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party.
Kairana, situated in western UP, has been witnessing a direct fight between the BJP and an opposition alliance comprising the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the Congress and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) of Chaudhary Ajit Singh. The BSP is extending outside support to the alliance.
The bypolls in Kairana Lok Sabha seat and Noorpur assembly seat are scheduled on May 28.
For the Kairana parliamentary seat, the BJP has fielded Mriganka Singh, daughter of late MP Hukum Singh, against RLD candidate Tabassum Hasan. For the Noorpur assembly seat, BJP candidate Avani Singh is contesting against SP’s Naim-ul-Hasan. Kairana seat fell vacant as Hukum Singh died after prolonged illness, while Noorpur’s BJP MLA Lokendra Singh died in a road accident necessitating a bypoll there.
Kairana bypoll has become a prestige issue for the BJP as it comes after the party lost two major parliamentary polls—Gorakhpur and Phulpur. These constituencies were earlier represented by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Deputy Chief Minister Kehav Prasad Maurya.
During the 2014 parliamentary polls, Hukum Singh, supported by the BJP, had successfully raised the issue of migration in this Jat belt.
This time, too, the saffron party is very cautiously playing its card in Kairana. It does not want to annoy the Jats, a dominant vote bank in the area. Hence it avoids any direct attack on the RLD, to which Jats have a cordial relation. So the BJP strategists have not been attacking directly Chaudhary Ajit Singh or his son Jayant Chaudhary, fearing that it may alienate Jat voters. Instead, the BJP is making scathing attacks on the SP and the BSP in the region.
Though the elected MP from Kairana will hold this seat for a brief period as the next general elections are due in 2019, the BJP will try its best to retain this seat in 2019, too.
Adityanath has said that Kairana bypoll will depict the picture of 2019 polls in this region.
In Noorpur, BJP candidate Lokendra Singh had won 2017 assembly elections against SP’s candidate Naim-ul-Hasan. This time, Naim-ul-Hasan is also supported by the BSP and the RLD. The opposition has fielded a Muslim candidate, because out of the total three lakh voters in this assembly constituency, over one lakh are Muslims.