From a vote share of 1.5 per cent to 43 per cent. With its ally Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), this vote share crosses little more than 50 per cent. So the key to the BJP’s success in Tripura was not only a drastic gain in vote share but the stringing together of an alliance with IPFT, a tribal party.
A six per cent slide in left votes made the impossible possible. Out of 20 seats in the tribal belt, all of which CPI(M) won in 2013, the BJP-IPFT has wrested nearly 19 seats (based on counting trends), gaining the momentum to win the tiny northeastern state for the first time.
Even though Tripura is a state that is mostly inhabited by refugees coming from Bangladesh, the BJP strung together both low-profile Bengalis and indigenous tribals to score a thumping win.
More than 40 seats (leads + wins) out of 60 Assembly seats are in the BJP's kitty. Constituencies in Tripura are largely small, with around 60,000 to 65,000 voters per constituency. So, the seats kept changing hands since morning, making it impossible to understand which way the results were going.
But the situation changed dramatically when counting in towns started and it came in thick and fat.
In 14 seats in and around the capital Agartala, the BJP gained a huge lead and it took only half an hour—from 11.30am to 12 noon—for India to understand who would be winning this historic election in Tripura.
Ram Madhav, the BJP’s in-charge for the northeast, Assam deputy chief minister and president of Northeast Democratic Alliance (NEDA, NDA’s cousin in northeast), Himanta Biswa Sarma, and the state’s prabhari (in-charge), Sunil Deodhar, considered as the 'man of the match', were all pictured sitting, with tension on their faces.
But once trends became clear, Madhav came out and held a press conference and credited Deodhar as the person because of whom BJP could get such a magical win.
But is the BJP's appeal the only factor behind the win?
That is far from the case. For many voters, it was the obsolete ideology of the left, which led to the CPI(M) staring at a grand defeat despite having such a charismatic leader as Manik Sarkar as chief minister.
The CPI(M) talked about issues such as US policies, Jerusalem and even Chinese growth in Tripura, while the BJP sold the dream of a 'new life' (of course, it’s not easy to keep) to millions of youths in Tripura.
Not surprisingly, five out of seven ministers of the Sarkar government are trailing, though Sarkar himself is leading from Dhanpur by 3,000 votes. In small comfort for the CPI(M), the Trinamool Congress, which was once considered a possible alternative in Tripura, secured a vote share of 0.2 per cent, which is less than NOTA!
“No Marxist could try to break the jingoism. None of them could go and live with tribals like they do. These days, becoming 'Bhadralok' will alone not do,”said Sekhar Dutta, a political analyst of Tripura.
"We will examine it and would definitely address the issue. But I can say it was the most ugly campaign so far in Tripura with false promises," said Gautam Deb, central committee member of CPI(M).
Now once the Communists have been defeated, it will not be easy for them come back. Five years down the line when another election would be held, Sarkar would be 75. Almost all senior leaders would cross 70. So the demand would be to have more young blood in the party. And after 25 years in power, the CPI(M) in Tripura would be suffering from another syndrome seen in the party in West Bengal—losing its teeth to be an aggressive opposition.
For the BJP, things would not be easy either. Though it has enough seats of its own to ensure a majority, dealing with the IPFT will be a headache.
“Yes, we would not forget our separate state demand,”said N.C. Debabarma, chief of IPFT.
Deodhar categorically ruled that out, so has Sarma.
“No way that is possible. We have made that clear,” Sarma said.
Only time will tell how BJP walks the tightrope in the coming days.