GERMANY

Woman for all seasons

56-Angela-Merkel Holding the stage: Angela Merkel at the ‘National Integration Award’ ceremony in Berlin on May 17. Most experts expect her to win a fourth term as German chancellor in the September elections | AFP

Angela Merkel, down and almost out not long ago, has bounced back ahead of the September elections

For over a decade, she has been the most powerful woman on earth. And then, her reputation and power appeared to crumble. But the pendulum has swung again. German Chancellor Angela Merkel now seems reasonably well-positioned to retain her post for another four years. If she wins the national elections in September, as most experts expect, it will be her fourth term as German chancellor—an incredible feat amidst the turbulence that has swept the planet, especially Europe.

I am in Hamburg, Germany’s busy and beautiful port city, to attend the annual world congress of the International Press Institute, the watchdog of press freedom around the globe. Political analysts here say that Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) winning three state elections in recent months confirm voters’ belief that she is the best person to steer the nation with the maturity required to cope with accelerating political, economic, social and technological changes. Her party’s recent successes suggest that the threat from her main challenger—Martin Schulz of the Social Democratic Party (SPD)—is fizzling out.

That was not how it seemed a few months ago. In January, Schulz resigned as the president of the European Parliament to return to German politics as head of the SPD and mount a serious bid to snatch the chancellorship from Merkel in the September elections. After 12 years of Angela Merkel, voters were hankering for change.

Competent, astute and fluent in English and French, Schulz was widely regarded by the German electorate as a much-needed breath of fresh air. But now he is in danger of epitomising the Shakespearean dictum: “Began with a bang, but ended with a whimper”. Says Ute Brucker of the German ARD (a consortium of public broadcasters in Germany), the world’s largest public broadcaster: “Schulz came like a messiah. But now he is losing steam.” Schulz campaigned on issues such as “social justice’’ that failed to resonate with the voters. Germany is the best performing nation in Europe, by far.

The SPD’s recent defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia—home to one out of five German voters and always a trendsetter for national elections—was devastating. Says Elmar Thevessen, head of news in the German television channel ZDF, “The biggest message from this election result is that Schulz has no message. There is no content.’’ Acknowledging his defeat, Schulz said, “This is a difficult day for the SPD and a difficult day for me personally. It is my home state where we suffered a bitter defeat. We lost an important state election.’’

How times have changed! Two years ago, Merkel was perilously close to falling off her pedestal. Her immigration policy opened a Pandora’s box of troubles, anger and attacks across Europe as Syrian and Afghan refugees poured in. Germany alone took in more than a million refugees. Local communities could not cope with the inflow and their welcome turned to anxiety and then anger. Some immigrant men misbehaved with German women, neighbourhoods became squalid, terror attacks on malls and Christmas markets threatened to derail the relaxed, open German way of life. Immigration and terrorism provided wind to the sails of far right populism across Europe, including Germany, threatening to destroy European values that are anchored in secularism and openness.

58-Children Open-door policy: Children at a shelter for refugees and migrants in Marienfelde, Berlin.Germany took in over one million refugees and migrants between 2015 and 2016 | Getty Images

But Merkel stayed firm and true to her policy and character. Being from East Germany, she was empathetic to immigration and believed in its power to improve individual destinies while reinvigorating the host nation. Germany’s low birth rate had to be compensated by a steady inflow of immigrants to boost the economy and expand the tax base. This was even more necessary to keep afloat Germany’s ageing society, with its significant proportion of pensioners. But responding to public resentment and opposition in her own party, Merkel moderated her open-door policy to immigrants. She acknowledged the need for better integration policies, improved security measures and tightened border controls to limit the refugee stream.

As in all matters of state, Merkel was sensible, stable, cautious and patient, preferring to ride out the storm calmly, while refusing to rise to the bait of an eye-for-an-eye fight with the populists. The fiery rhetoric of the German far right party, the anti-muslim and anti-immigrant Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), began to flounder when both the SPD and CDU began to co-opt their populist demands, such as tighter immigration. As Brucker says, “Right now, Merkel is expected to win the September elections because there is no alternative.”

Europe today is breathing a sigh of relief after a tumultuous year following Brexit and the rise of Donald Trump. The spectacular electoral success of Trump turbocharged European far right populism. But Trump in office displayed the disarray, chaos and turmoil of inexperience, undisciplined rhetoric and ill-conceived actions. The defeat of far right leaders in the recent Dutch and French elections were a source of comfort for European Union leaders.

In policy and in personality, Angela Merkel is the very antithesis of Donald Trump, generating neither drama nor confusion. “Merkel is tough, unassuming and hardworking,” said Kevin, who drove me around in Hamburg. “While other politicians are all talk, Merkel prefers to act. And, despite her hectic schedule, Merkel occasionally steps into a local store, picks up some veggies, and whips up a meal,” said Kevin. She is predictable, perhaps even staid and boring. But those are invaluable virtues in statecraft.

But voters can be fickle and new issues or acts of terrorism can turn the tide again. Merkel is not taking victory for granted and have adopted a three-pronged electoral strategy. Her party will go all out to focus on security in order to address the primary voter concern with regard to terrorism and immigration. Second, Merkel’s government, which has amassed a sizeable tax surplus, will give some welfare sops to win over social democrats and finally, instead of press conferences and TV talk shows, they will go door-to-door.

German television station ZDF released its latest opinion poll on May 18, which showed Merkel’s CDU at 38 per cent, SPD at 27 per cent and the AfD down to 7 per cent, its lowest. Explains Thevessen, “This wide margin makes it hard for the SPD to catch up with Merkel. As for the AfD, choosing a more extremist path has hurt its popularity.’’

Across the board, experts, bureaucrats and politicians acknowledge that the EU must reform if it is to effectively tackle the political, economic and social challenges that have buffeted it in recent years: from migration to populism, from terrorism to radicalisation, from austerity measures to rising inequality, from Brexit to communities in EU countries feeling a loss of sovereignty due to centralisation of power in the EU headquarters in Brussels. Germany is the leading force in the EU. A steady and experienced hand is required at the helm to steer not only Germany, but Europe through the choppy waters. And, that hand might well be Angela Merkel’s for some more time.

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