CONGRESS

Existential crisis

24rahulgandhi Name game: Some leaders question the leadership of Rahul Gandhi because of the party’s dependence on the Gandhi family | Sougat Mohanty

The upcoming assembly elections could be the Congress’s last chance for a revival

  • “The days of making long manifestoes are over; it has to be very small. People’s attention span is very small” - Jyotiraditya Scindia, former Union minister

  • “In Rajasthan we have Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot; that is why things are better in that state” - Digvijaya Singh, Congress general secretary

Two photographs hang side by side in Congress general secretary Digvijaya Singh’s office at 68, Lodhi Estate in Delhi—one is of Indira Gandhi with her son Rajiv, and the other of Sonia Gandhi with her son Rahul. Like most Congressmen, Digvijaya knows the party needs the Gandhis to survive more than the Gandhis need the Congress. A reason few of them are willing to question the leadership despite the party’s sharp decline since 2014.

The dismal show in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections a month ago was widely seen as the failure of Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. But the Congress chose to ignore the obvious, just like it did after the loss in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. At that time, it appointed a committee headed by A.K. Antony to find out the reasons for the election debacle. The report submitted by Antony was discussed by the party leaders, and Rahul spent some 100 hours in those discussions. “On the basis of that report, Rahul Gandhi should act now,” said Digvijaya.

It is, probably, now or never for the Congress. In the next two years, the party will be facing tough elections; a bad show could mean political obscurity. Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh go to the polls by the end of this year. Next year, four major states—Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh—will go to the polls, apart from Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland. In all big states, it will be a straight fight between the Congress and the BJP.

Most Congress leaders suggest nurturing regional leaders as a solution for the party’s current problems. “We have to move towards creating regional leaders—identifying them, nurturing the talent, growing them, and most importantly, holding them accountable. In every organisation there has to be accountability, so in a political party it has to be there. If I have been given an opportunity and I have performed well, encouragement must be given,” said former Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia.

Historically, the Congress has gained a lot from regional satraps. “There were two models of Congress functioning after independence. The first was Nehruvian, where he created regional satraps and made them deliver. The second was the Indira model, where she raised leaders of her choice, as she herself was extremely popular and powerful. Unfortunately, Rahul Gandhi is no Indira. So things were destined to fail,” said former Chhattisgarh chief minister Ajit Jogi. He believes the Gandhi dynasty is nearing its end.

In Punjab, giving Captain Amarinder Singh full powers helped the party win the assembly elections a month ago. He effectively used his charisma to keep the Aam Aadmy Party at bay and convince people that the Congress was the best alternative to the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP alliance. Similarly, in Karnataka, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah delivered when it mattered the most by winning two assembly byelections in the state.

The Congress registered emphatic victories in Nanjungud (by 21,000 votes) and Gundlupet (by 10,000 votes) in Karnataka in April. The BJP had made it a personal battle between B.S. Yeddyurappa, who is expected to lead the party in the assembly elections, and Siddaramaiah. Yeddyurappa camped for almost a month in the two constituencies, making it a battle of prestige.

The victories have made Siddaramaiah’s case a lot stronger while selecting the state president of the party. He wants S.R. Patil, a Lingayat, in the seat while the powerful energy minister D.K. Shivakumar, a Vokkaliga, is the frontrunner. Siddaramaiah thinks a Lingayat Congress president will blunt the BJP’s influence in the community.

27siddaramaiah In Karnataka, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah delivered when it mattered the most by winning two assembly byelections | PTI

The byelection triumph, however, does not ensure a victory for the Congress in the assembly elections next year. The party has been battling infighting, anti-incumbency and corruption charges. The tussle for the state president’s post has turned bitter with senior leaders Shivakumar, G. Parameshwara and K.H. Muniyappa trying hard to outwit each other. While the party somehow mitigated the departures of former chief minister S.M. Krishna and former revenue minister Srinivas Prasad (both joined the BJP), many other leaders have shown their displeasure over the way the party is functioning. Actor-turned politician Ambareesh is upset after being dropped from the cabinet.

Many leaders allege that concentration of power in the hands of a few leaders has weakened the organisational structure of the party in the state. “Siddaramaiah and Mallikarjun Kharge, with their arbitrary decisions, are only facilitating the Congress-mukt Karnataka agenda of the BJP,” said Prasad. “A coterie of six leaders—Digvijaya (who is in charge of the state), Siddaramaiah, Shivakumar, Parameshwara, Kharge and minister K.J. George—controls the state.”

Krishna had blamed the central leadership for his departure when he quit the party in January. “The Congress today demands only managers and does not need time-tested leaders and workers,” he said. Taking a dig at Rahul Gandhi’s leadership, he said, dynasty succession was not acceptable when there was neither competence nor experience.

It is, however, not just about the leadership’s failure. The Congress organisational structure has weakened over the years. The rot went unnoticed while the party was in power, but successive election failures have brought it down to its knees. Its failure to make governments in Manipur and Goa after the recent assembly elections despite emerging the largest party was a reflection of the pathetic condition of its organisational set-up.

A crucial outcome of a weak organisational structure is a leaking vote base. Until the early 1990s, the Congress enjoyed a strong vote base throughout India, notwithstanding the seasonal changes in the political climate. But after that it has gradually been eroding. In Odisha, for instance, the Congress enjoyed a traditional support base of 30 per cent voters since independence. “Now it has come down to 20 per cent,” said legislator Bhujabal Majhi.

28jyotiradityascindia Jyotiraditya Scindia | PTI

At this rate, the party may have to take the third place in the next assembly election, behind the ruling Biju Janata Dal and the emerging BJP. In fact, the BJP displaced the Congress as the main alternative to the BJD in the last zilla parishad elections. A major chunk of the Congress vote base was the sizeable scheduled castes and scheduled tribes in the state. But after Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik introduced a subsidised rice scheme and some other social welfare measures, the Congress lost the favour of the poor.

Digvijaya said the Congress needed to understand the changing aspirations of the dalits to keep them with the party. “We are coming to an age where scheduled castes and tribes have moved into the middle class. They want more share in power, they want more jobs, they want better education and opportunities.’’ he said.

The Congress organisation is a mess in Odisha. And, the central leadership’s overbearing ways make things worse. A Youth Congress leader said state presidents were changed a few months before the Lok Sabha elections on the past three occasions. The party miserably failed to outdo the BJD each time. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it failed to win a single seat from the state.

Because of the weak organisation, the Congress is in no position to challenge the BJP even in those states where it has a fighting chance. For instance, in Gujarat, where it has been out of power for 22 years, it stands to gain from the unrest among Patidars and dalits. “If the Congress puts up a united show, it has all the potential of doing good in the assembly elections later this year,” said social analyst Mahesh Pandya. “People aren’t happy with the BJP’s rule; it is now up to the Congress how best it uses the opportunity.”

The question is, is the Congress up to it? If the party’s good show in the municipal elections is anything to go by, it poses a challenge to the BJP’s dream run in the state. “The party has to put up a united show. Patels are unhappy and so are the dalits. It wasn’t without a reason that the Congress performed well, without working hard, in the elections to civic bodies and municipal corporations,” said Chandrakant Shrivastav, a Congress leader from Vadodara.

28digvijayasingh Digvijaya Singh | PTI

But the party’s organisation is no match for the might of the BJP. It does not have booth level presence in many assembly constituencies. Also, it is yet to work out a strategy to win back people’s trust.

The BJP is willing to go to any length to retain power in Gujarat considering it is the home state of Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah. There are already rumours that it is all set to poach ten Congress leaders, including some MLAs. Modi has already kick-started the BJP campaign attending a dozen events and several rallies during his visit to the state on April 18 and 19.

While the last time the Congress beat the BJP in an assembly election in a big state and formed a government was in 2013, its record against the regional parties has also been unimpressive. It was wiped out in Delhi by the Aam Aadmi Party, and comprehensively defeated in Telengana by the Telangana Rashtra Samithi and in Andhra Pradesh by the Telugu Desam Party. The saving grace was Punjab, where it defeated the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP alliance.

Though the Congress thwarted the AAP’s efforts to make gains at its expense in Punjab and Goa, things could be challenging in Gujarat. In fact, the Congress is yet to figure out a game plan to counter the plans of the AAP and the Nationalist Congress Party in the state. The AAP, especially, can damage the Congress’s chances in closely fought seats. “Now there is an emergence of regional parties in all states,” admitted Digvijaya Singh. But he added that nurturing strong regional leaders would curb such trends. “In Rajasthan we have Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot; that is why things are better in that state,” he said.

Being not in power in most of the big states has drained the Congress’s sources of income, which is a serious handicap during elections. “The BJP won the panchayat polls (in Odisha) because of its money power,” said Majhi. “The Congress has youth support. But to mobilise them you need money. These days you cannot fight elections without money.” Faced with empty coffers during the assembly elections in Punjab, the Congress invited applications for candidates, which earned it about Rs 1.3 crore as application fees.

Its financial might clearly gives the BJP an edge over the Congress and the regional parties. The disparity is the most striking on social media. “They have used the weapon of social media so strongly all over the country through paid activists,” said Digvijaya. “There is troll army of Narendra Modi. They are consistently working on social media under the guidance of APCO Worldwide, the PR agency in Washington, which has clients all over the world, mostly dictators. Whenever there is an anti-Modi post, the person who has posted it gets a barrage of abuse. The strategy of APCO Worldwide is to demoralise the person who speaks against you to an extent that he either runs away or keeps quiet.”

The Congress has started its own social media teams and formed some 10,000 WhatsApp groups. But it is yet to have an aggressive strategy to counter the BJP’s campaign. “We are still a traditionally run organisation while our rivals have mastered the art of new age media. We are now gradually catching up. We believe in fair play while our opponents are engaging all the tricks in the book,” said Mohan Prakash, party general secretary in charge of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.

A strong presence on social media is just the beginning of the battle for the Congress. Scindia said the party immediately needed three things—identifiable faces, strong organisation and a very strong narrative that clearly spelled out what the party would do for a particular section. “The days of making long manifestoes are over; it has to be very small. People’s attention span is very small,” he said.

Will such changes regain the Congress its past glory? Only time will tell. But the party has done it in the past. Said Digvijaya, “You people wrote off the Congress in 1977, we came back. You again wrote us off in 1989, we came back. You did it in 1998-99, we came back. We will come back again.’’

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The Week

Topics : #Congress | #Karnataka

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