Shivraj Singh Chouhan is an exceptional swimmer—he learned swimming in the turbulent Narmada, which flows behind his ancestral house in Jait village in Sehore. He has been equally dextrous in the stormy politics in Madhya Pradesh since he became chief minister in 2005. He survived many allegations of corruption to lead the BJP to victory in two assembly polls and has retained the Midas touch. The BJP won nine of ten assembly by-polls in the state in the past three years.
That, however, might not be good enough to make him lead the party in the assembly elections late next year. At least the urgency in Chouhan’s acts says as much. A week ago, he hurriedly banned the use of polythene bags, saying that they killed cows who ate them. The same day, he shouted at a senior police officer for not giving a licence to a Maharashtra-based company. It was quite unlike Chouhan.
It is said that the RSS nudged him to act fast on both occasions. And, he knows he needs to keep the Sangh in good humour to keep his chair, especially after the BJP’s impressive victory in Uttar Pradesh.
After three successive terms, anti-incumbency is going to play a part against the BJP in the assembly elections. Some leaders say that this factor will be stronger if Chouhan leads the party in the election. The party does not want to lose a big state, which has 29 Lok Sabha seats, especially a few months before the Lok Sabha elections due in May 2019.
The rumours of Chouhan being removed became loud when Manohar Parrikar quit as defence minister to go back to Goa as chief minister. In fact, a spokesperson for the Madhya Pradesh government had to clarify that Chouhan was not going anywhere.
It is no secret that BJP president Amit Shah is already looking past Chouhan. Shah had cornered Chouhan when the Vyapam scam rocked the state, but the RSS saved his skin. Being an Advani loyalist, Chouhan is not in Prime Minister Modi’s good books, either.
Chouhan knows all these too well. He knows he no longer has the excuse of a Congress-led government at the Centre trying to undermine his work. He knows he does not fit well into Shah’s grand scheme of things for the BJP. He knows the RSS will not watch his back for ever. So he embarked on the Narmada conservation yatra.
Started in December, the yatra is a mix of environmental concerns and hindutva politics. It will cover 70 assembly constituencies in 16 districts through which the Narmada flows. Chouhan, however, denied any political motive behind the yatra. “I love meeting people and try to shake hands with every person whom I come across. Sometimes in a day I shake hands with two to three thousand people. I love being with them, this is my way of getting feedback on government schemes,” he said.
The opposition Congress, however, has no doubts about his intentions. “The chief minister is doing poll preparations at the cost of public exchequer,” said Congress state president Arun Yadav.
The yatra has been attended by the likes of RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, the Dalai Lama and Baba Ramdev. Gujarat Chief Minister Vijay Rupani was present on December 11 at Amarkantak, where it began. Modi is expected to attend its conclusion on May 11.
Is it doing Chouhan any good? Definitely it is making him more visible. “Chouhan is essentially a 24-hour politician who has immense capacity to take political advantage from hardcore administrative and government initiatives. The way he has converted a forest conservation drive and an environment issue into a mass movement addressing hindutva and tribal population is a good example of this,” said Sanjeev Shrivastava, a political commentator.
On more occasions than one, Chouhan has escaped unscathed from allegations of corruption. But many BJP leaders say such allegations have damaged the party. Also, Chouhan thoroughly failed in fulfilling his promise of good governance. The state has reported the highest number of malnutrition deaths in India. Infant and maternal mortality rates are among the highest. Without teachers and funds, the education sector is a mess. Even some ministers have complained that bureaucrats had a free run in the state and Chouhan depended too much on them.
Chouhan, however, is no pushover. He knows the pulse of the people and is still close to the RSS. And he keeps winning elections. “What else does the party need?” asked a Union minister who did not wish to be named.
It is said that a section of the BJP leadership wants Chouhan in Delhi as Union agriculture minister. He could be a crucial link in the party’s succession line of mass leaders after Modi. Chouhan, however, dismissed such rumours. “I am an honest worker of the BJP doing the job entrusted to me by the party. I am happy where I am,” he told the media in Bhopal.
It seems Chouhan does not want to leave Madhya Pradesh. And he is working overtime to show that he is indispensable to the party in the state. He has launched pro-poor schemes to fill the gaps in his governance, such as one kilo of wheat for a rupee and one kilo of rice for two rupees. The Deendayal Rasoi Yojana offers lunch for Rs 5 in all district headquarters. The Mukhyamantri Ashray Yojana offers free land to build house in rural areas. Farmers are given 020,000 a hectare for planting trees in their fields on the banks of the Narmada.
And, he is making sure that these are getting noticed—he spends 25 days in a month addressing rallies and functions. “His capacity to work for more than 16 hours a day without any ego hassles makes him a formidable politician. Working in campaign mode is his style,” said BJP leader Rajneesh Agarwal.
Chouhan is at his best when he is among people. Arguably, none of the BJP’s other 12 chief ministers enjoys the connect he has with the masses. And, he has a knack for converting a crisis into an opportunity. Shah must be aware of it.
