On December 18, the BJP headquarters at 11 Ashoka Road in Delhi was buzzing, but with anxiety. The early trends of the Gujarat assembly elections, oscillating between a victory and a narrow margin, had kept BJP strategists on tenterhooks. Celebrations were kept on hold. It was only at noon that the first firecrackers were burst, when the winning seats tally hovered around 100.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived at the party headquarters in the evening, he told the waiting supporters, “It was not a usual victory, it was an unusual one.” The party chief’s efforts, strategy and ability to recognise hard work had brought us here, he said.
Those who saw the Gujarat campaign from close quarters understood the import of Modi’s words. “What separated us from near defeat was Amit Shah’s machinery and Modi’s emotional appeal as he used the comments of [Congress leaders] Kapil Sibal and Mani Shankar Aiyar to his advantage. If one of these factors were to be taken out, it would have been a different situation,” a BJP functionary said.
Understanding the Gujarat battle will give clues about the things to come in the next 15 months before the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. What worries the BJP the most now is that Rahul Gandhi has emerged as a worthy challenger. Rahul challenged Modi on his home turf, and therefore created the perception that Modi could be challenged anywhere. And, with three BJP-ruled states—Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh—going to the polls in 2018, Shah’s war machinery is likely to work on meeting any challenge from the Congress or regional leaders.
In Gujarat, Shah was able to counter the resurgent Congress, the rise of caste leaders like Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakore and, more importantly, the disenchantment of core BJP supporters owing to demonetisation and GST. But, how did he do it? “During the first week of November, Shah asked all party leaders and workers to conduct a week-long door-to-door campaign in Gujarat. This campaign was aimed at talking to people, listening to their grievances, getting feedback and lessening their anger,” a senior BJP leader had told THE WEEK in Ahmedabad a day ahead of the first phase of polling. Shah’s order had come after Modi had addressed a rally of more than seven lakh booth workers on October 15. Shah followed it up by taking reports from leaders and those in charge of booths.
The BJP had set up a media centre at a brand new clubhouse in Ahmedabad, owned by a businessman close to the party. Shah would meet senior leaders from the Centre and state here, and the meetings would go on till the wee hours. The party had deliberately made this its hub so as to keep its war room at the state headquarters in Gandhinagar away from the media glare.
Also, the breakaway faction of election strategist Prashant Kishor, led by Himanshu Singh, worked overnight to generate inputs and conduct research for the BJP. Another team of media managers prepared content for online and other advertisements. “We had set up 44,000 WhatsApp groups to engage with the people,” state BJP IT Cell in-charge Pankaj Shukla told THE WEEK. “There was a ten-member team in each assembly seat that managed social media.” Modi, too, addressed a gathering of women workers, SC/ST cadre and booth workers through video links to enthuse them to go out and engage with people.
The BJP also deployed its senior leaders in areas that had many disenchanted cadre. Home Minister Rajnath Singh, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje campaigned in Surat, which was the epicentre of the Patel agitation and the anti-GST campaign by traders. Jaitley assured the business community here of necessary tweaks in GST. “The government was quick to bring huge changes that impacted nearly 90 per cent of the traders,” a top BJP leader said. Mumbai BJP chief Ashish Shelar was made in charge of the 16 assembly seats in Surat. And, the BJP won 15 seats. The BJP is likely to follow the dual strategy, involving its foot soldiers and senior leaders, in other poll-bound states including Karnataka, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland.
“The Gujarat and Himachal [Pradesh] results have sent a positive message. We will do well in the states where elections are to be held next year. With PM Modi’s appeal and Shah’s acumen, the BJP will do well,” BJP national general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya told THE WEEK.
Another BJP strategist said that while the BJP would stick to the issues of governance and development, it would not lose a chance to talk about hindutva. But the emergence of caste dissension is hampering its aggressive hindutva politics. “Casteism is a poison. It took me 30 years to remove this poison of casteism. The people of Gujarat have defeated this poison. I want to caution you against this poison. Don’t let it affect you,” Modi said in his speech on December 18. Shah, too, said, “One lesson we can draw from these elections is to see how caste-based things are tackled as a way of strategy [in future elections].”
A similar caste equation is likely to emerge in Karnataka, where Lingayats are asserting themselves. Also, farmers have been agitating in BJP-ruled states. As rural Gujarat voted in favour of the Congress, the party will be focusing on these areas. Also, the Modi government is likely to announce schemes for farmers and villagers in the February 2018 budget, which will be its last budget before the 2019 elections.
With three BJP-ruled states going to the polls in the latter half of 2018, the Modi government only has a six-month window next year for initiating any reforms or taking any key policy decisions. Of the three states, Chhattisgarh is on a sticky wicket for the party. After three consecutive terms, the Raman Singh government is facing strong anti-incumbency. In Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chouhan has completed 12 years at the helm, making him the longest-serving chief minister of the state. But, Chouhan has been following the party’s pro-hindutva agenda. Rajasthan, too, has taken an aggressive hindutva stance, with many incidents of cow vigilante attacks taking place. Any polarisation in the name of religion favours the BJP. In Karnataka, leaders like Anant Kumar Hegde, who was inducted in the Union cabinet this September, have been making strong hindutva statements.
Moreover, Modi has already kickstarted the election campaign in states going to the polls early next year. He visited Meghalaya, Mizoram and Karnataka, inaugurating projects and reaching out to people. For, he knows he has only won the battle, and that the war is yet to be waged.
