On January 5, when Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar was with Goa Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar at the state BJP office, they were told that the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party, a BJP ally, had withdrawn its support to the state government. The duo, however, was not shocked. The withdrawal had been anticipated ever since December, when Parsekar sacked two MGP ministers—Sudin and Deepak Dhavalikar—for repeatedly attacking and undermining him.
The BJP, however, was concerned when the MGP announced that it would ally with the Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM), a party floated by Subhash Velingkar—the recently sacked chief of the Goa unit of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and mentor to Parrikar and Parsekar. Velingkar, a respected activist, has vowed to defeat the BJP in the assembly elections, to be held on February 4. The GSM has allied with the MGP and the Shiv Sena (a relatively new entrant to Goa politics) to trounce the BJP. “The fact that he has floated a political outfit is a clear pointer that Velingkar has political ambitions,” Parsekar told THE WEEK.
This time, along with the usual players, the state will have a new option in the Aam Aadmi Party, whose convener Arvind Kejriwal has aroused curiosity among voters, especially the young, educated and upper middle class. Limo Thalekar, who has a tourism business, said: “I used to be a Congress voter. In 2012, I voted for the BJP as they promised clean government and law and order. I don’t know about clean governance, but the law and order situation is far better. So, I have to choose between the BJP and the AAP.”
Being new and having a clean slate is the AAP’s plus point, said Ashley de Rosario, the AAP’s media in-charge for the elections. He said that Kejriwal was known for his transparent governance in Delhi and that most of their candidates were professionals and were educated. Their chief minister candidate Elvis Gomes, he said, was till recently a respected civil servant known for his commitment and integrity.
In December, however, the state anti-corruption bureau questioned Gomes in connection with a housing scam that happened when he was the managing director of the Goa Housing Board. Kejriwal, however, said it was a concocted case and accused the BJP government of not investigating scams that happened under the previous Congress government. The Delhi chief minister, who addressed four public meetings in Goa on January 7 and 8, alleged that the Congress and the BJP were two sides of the same coin. Kejriwal first visited Goa in May and all his public meetings since then have had good attendance.
For the BJP, however, the main opposition is the Congress, said a candid Parsekar, adding that the party could pose a challenge if it carefully stitches an alliance. “The Congress has ruled here for years. We cannot underestimate them,” Parsekar told THE WEEK.
The Congress, which won only nine of 40 seats in 2012, seems to be getting its act together. However, while a section of the party, including former chief ministers Pratapsingh Rane and Digambar Kamat, are in favour of an alliance of likeminded parties, some other senior leaders, such as state Congress president Luizinho Faleiro, said the party was a “rising phoenix” and was capable of going it alone. On January 7, Faleiro said the party’s central leadership would decide on having any alliance. As of now, the likely alliance includes the Congress, the Nationalist Congress Party, and the Goa Forward Party, which was formed early last year by former Congress leader Vijai Sardesai.
The BJP has no allies. In 2012, its alliance with the MGP had helped it win Goa, especially the northern region, where the MGP voter base is still intact. The new alliance between the MGP, GSM and Shiv Sena is expected to eat into the BJP’s Hindu votes. And, in a state where assembly constituencies are small—each has about 25,000 voters—a difference of a few hundred votes can mar the BJP’s chances. Realising this, the BJP began its aggressive campaign by conducting ‘Vijay Sankalp’ rallies in all the 36 assembly constituencies it will be contesting. “Our rallies had a very good response,” said BJP state president Vinay Tendulkar. “Attendance at these meetings ranged from 4,000 to 11,000, depending on our network in each constituency and number of voters there. So, we are confident that we will do very well even if we are alone.”
The Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party would have to fight for the votes of the minorities, including Christians, about 28 per cent of the state’s population, and Muslims, who are about 8 per cent. In 2012, the BJP won over some Christians with the promise of clean governance and transparent administration. It fielded some Christian candidates and supported some independents, and ended up with six Christian legislators. Now, while some Christians might stay with the BJP, the majority are expected to vote for the AAP or the Congress. The Christians have traditionally supported the Congress, but the AAP is wooing the community, especially in south Goa, where it has a better network and support base. Gomes, the AAP’s chief minister candidate, is contesting from Cuncolim in south Goa and has also made a blueprint for creating 50,000 jobs in the state.
For a debutant, the AAP has been quite aggressive and has promised to rid Goa of drugs and casinos, which many voters see as a nuisance. The party has also used every platform to attack the BJP. Though the Congress has also stepped up its game, the infighting in the party seems to be harming its chances.
More drama would unfold after January 20 as bigwigs across parties, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are expected to fly down to Goa. While some pre-poll surveys favour the BJP, what remains to be seen is whether the Congress, and especially the AAP, can rewrite those predictions.
