The Indian and Hindu community will have a true friend in White House…” This grandiose promise of Donald Trump’s will be used to calibrate every move he makes, that could even have a ripple effect on India.
Trump's twin moves, however, show that despite the warm telephone call he had with Narendra Modi [notably one of the first few leaders he called after inauguration], his foreign policy vis-a-vis India remains unpredictable.
Trump put a temporary ban on immigration from seven Islamic countries—Yemen, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Iran, Iraq and Libya—identified as exporters of terror. While other countries quickly condemned the move, India remains quiet. Any list of state sponsors of terror that does not feature Pakistan is pointless for India.
Vinay Sahasrabuddhe, director of Bharatiya Janata Party's Public Policy Research Centre, notes, “While the idea of ban by religion is not acceptable, the fact remains that some countries are factories of terror. If Trump is serious about curbing terror, he should have Pakistan on his radar. That he has not hit where it should hurt most is worrisome.”
Even as the White House ban is being contested in American courts, Pakistan made some quick moves, detaining Hafiz Saeed, architect of the 26/11 attack in Mumbai, putting Jamaat-ud-Dawa and Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation on an anti-terror watch list. New Delhi quickly discounted these efforts as cosmetic. Foreign ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup said Pakistan had made such moves earlier, too, and it did not reflect its seriousness. “Only a credible crackdown on Saeed and the organisations involved in cross border terror would be proof of Pakistan's sincerity,” he stated. The ministry, while not commenting on the seven-nation ban, said that regarding H-1B visas, “India’s interests and concerns have been conveyed both to the US administration and the US Congress at senior levels.”
Observers say it is too early to make sense of the direction Trump's foreign policy may take, but India needs to be alert, not complacent. “In this age of multipolarity, new associations are being formed. Our own policy has shifted from ‘equidistant’ to ‘equi-proximity’,” said Sanjay Pulipaka, senior consultant, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. “No one helps anyone, we have to look out for ourselves.” He, however, said Indo-US defence and economic ties were strengthening. India purchased C-17 Globemasters from the US and landed them at the junction of India-China-Pakistan. The significance would not have been lost on anyone.
Rakesh Sood, former deputy chief of mission, Embassy of India, Washington, said, “Clearly, Trump's approach to foreign policy is unusual and disruptive. He excluded Saudi Arabia, too, despite 9/11. But Pakistan's action on Saeed could mean some signals were conveyed from Washington. Predicting Trump's behaviour so far has not been particularly productive. India's best bet is to respond to areas as per our interests and not read any patterns in Trump's initial moves.”
